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811. How to Judge the Palestinian Elections

Author:
Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On Wednesday, January 25, Palestinian voters will elect a new Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) for the first time since the initial PLC was elected ten years ago. The participation of Hamas in the elections marks a turning point in Palestinian politics; the group boycotted the original 1996 ballots as part of its rejection of the Oslo process. Ensuring a smooth transition from elections to the seating of the new PLC will require passing several hurdles, not the least of which is protecting balloting and vote-counting from violent disruptions. Assuming election day proceeds without incident—no small matter given the level of domestic lawlessness over the last several weeks—Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas will then face the challenge of selecting a prime minister to form the next government. What remains unknown is precisely how well Hamas will finish in relation to Abbas' own Fatah party, and whether a tight race will lead Abbas to include Hamas as an active partner in the next Palestinian government—or, indeed, whether a poor Fatah showing might prompt Abbas to resign.
Topic:
Development, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

812. Fatah's Prospects in the Legislative Elections

Author:
Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With just over two weeks left before January 25 Palestinian legislative elections, the mainstream Fatah movement remains bitterly divided, with some of its key factions advocating the postponement of elections and others demanding that voting be held as scheduled. Having publicly aired its internal problems over the last weeks rather than developing a clear campaign message, Fatah is unlikely to win more than 40 percent of the seats in the next Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). Even though the question of Israel allowing voting in East Jerusalem now seems resolved, it remains to be seen whether elections will take place. If they do proceed, Fatah is certain to lose its monopoly on the Palestinian Authority and will require a coalition to form the next government.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

813. What can European leaders learn from Koizumi?

Author:
Ángel Ubide
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Following a long period of stagnation, Japan is growing again. The key to this success story is Koizumi's relentless focus on structural reform, with two objectives: breaking the structural trap of political constituencies defending old and unproductive economic sectors; and adopting a two-pronged macromicro approach to make reform unavoidable. This paper argues that Europe should follow a similar strategy whereby financial market integration, and not the EU bureaucracy and grandiose political declarations, should become the main driving force of national economic reforms, pressuring liberalisation in goods and services markets and making labour market reforms unavoidable.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Japan and Europe

814. From Neighbourhood to Integration Policy: Are there concrete alternatives to enlargement?

Author:
Eneko Landaburu
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The answer to the question posed in the subtitle is yes, indeed, there are concrete alternatives to enlargement. As there must be. Enlargement has been a key tool in projecting stability across our continent. But it is a reality that the EU cannot expand ad infinitum – everything has its limits. We must honour our present basic commitments, while strictly insisting on the criteria. One of these criteria is our own absorption capacity – it is clear that in some member states the pace and scale of enlargement is approaching the limits of what public opinion will accept. To overstretch, rather than consolidate, the Union would be detrimental not only for us but also our partners. These are all issues with which our leaders will struggle in Vienna in a few months time.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Development
Political Geography:
Europe and Vienna

815. Employment and Competitiveness: The Key Role of Education

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
More than half way into the decade, it is clear that the ambitious goal to make the EU the 'most competitive economy' by 2010 will be missed. This contribution shows that investing more in education would be the key in terms of employment, a central element in the Lisbon goal. Improving the skills of the EU's population would have, inter alia, a direct impact on the employment rate. Reaching the Lisbon goal of an employment rate of 70% would be possible even without labour market reforms if the average level of qualification of the EU were to reach the benchmarks in this area (which in turn are very close to the values reached by the best performing member states).
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe and Lisbon

816. An Interim Plan for South-East Europe: Customs Union with the EU and a Regional Schengen for the Free Movement of People

Author:
Michael Emerson
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The central recommendation of the Amato report of April 20051 set the year 2014 as the target accession date for the whole of the Western Balkans, which would take the EU from the 27 (in 2007 or 2008) to 32 member states minimally, 33 with Turkey, and 35 in the event of independence for Montenegro and Kosovo. This scenario is in contradiction with the present mood of the EU following the French and the Dutch referenda, which rejected the Constitution that was itself designed to pave the way institutionally for further enlargement. The EU has now officially entered a period of profound reflection on its future, a process which cannot be hurried.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Turkey, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Montenegro

817. Oxfam Publishing: Girls' Education in South Asia

Author:
Nicola Swainson
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Because of deep-rooted gender inequalities, and because of the large population of South Asia, the region has the highest number of out-of-school girls in the world. This paper outlines some of the issues confronting practitioners, policy makers, and researchers in girls' education in South Asia, and explores what they can do to move towards high-quality and gender-equitable education for all.
Topic:
Development, Education, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
South Asia

818. Aceh's Local Elections: The Role of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM)

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 11 December 2006 local elections will take place in Aceh, the once war-torn region of Indonesia where exguerrillas are now running for office. The logistical challenges have been huge, particularly in registering so many people displaced by the December 2004 tsunami. But the political challenge has been even greater: how to ensure that the elections facilitate the transition of the former insurgency, the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) from an armed struggle to a political movement, thereby reinforcing its 15 August 2005 peace agreement with the Indonesian government. A rift that has emerged within the GAM leadership has complicated that transition.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

819. Serbia's New Constitution: Democracy Going Backwards

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Premier Vojislav Kostunica won a high stakes gamble with passage of Serbia's draft constitution in the 28-29 October referendum. However, numerous credible reports indicate the process was deeply flawed and the result falsified. The referendum cannot be characterised as either free or fair. The new constitution could prove a step away from European values. It opens the door to increased centralisation of the state, curtailment of human and minority rights, destruction of judicial independence and potentially even a parliamentary dictatorship. The process used to pass the constitution illustrates how Kostunica continues to transform Serbia into something closer to illiberal authoritarianism than liberal democracy; yet, the referendum was welcomed by the Council of Europe, the European Union and the United States.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Serbia

820. Geeing up the G-20

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell and Dr. Malcolm Cook
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Globalisation implies a big increase in the payoffs from successful cross-border economic cooperation. Yet the main international institutional mechanisms designed to facilitate such cooperation, the G7 and the IMF, are not up to it. Both the G7’s membership and the IMF’s governance structure significantly under-represent several key players in the modern global economy, a potentially fatal handicap when it comes to tackling some of the most pressing challenges now facing policymakers. Moreover, neither gives Australia a permanent seat at the top table.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific