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52. Yet Another Complication in Nineveh: Retaking Tal Afar
- Author:
- Tomáš Kaválek
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Hashd al-Shaabi launched an offensive on Tal Afar on 29 October; the looming recapture of Tal Afar prompted a strong reaction from Turkey, which maintains ties to the Turkmen population there. Tal Afar is thus yet another flashpoint of competing interests between Ankara, Erbil, Baghdad, and Tehran and can possibly further destabilise the situation in Nineveh.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
53. Competing Interests in Shingal: Yazidis Caught Between Millstones
- Author:
- Tomáš Kaválek
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Nearly two years since the north side of Shingal was liberated from the Islamic State, most of the Yazidi population is still displaced. Yazidis are trapped between millstones of the competition of exogenous actors, such as the KDP, the PKK-linked forces, and Baghdad, over the control of the strategically important disputed territory of Shingal.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
54. A Development-Oriented Stabilisation Policy for Mosul
- Author:
- Irene Costantini
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- The Islamic State (IS) has not only surprised everyone with its cruelty but also by proving to be one of the world’s richest terrorist organisations. Now that its economic gains are draining due to military setbacks and financial strains, IS-held territories are increasingly struggling through economic hurdles – the challenge ahead is to link military interventions against IS with concrete economic plans.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
55. International Peace Mediation and Gender: Bridging the Divide
- Author:
- Julia Palmiano Federer and Rachel Gasser
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- BRICS Policy Center
- Abstract:
- In this policy brief, Julia Palmiano Federer and Rachel Gasser explore the nexus between international peace mediation and gender. The publication focuses on the state of play of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda almost two decades since the passing of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 in October 2000. The WPS Agenda has become a powerful and salient normative instrument in the mediation field and most comprehensively represents the nexus between gender and mediation. Since 2000, it has produced large scale efforts to address existing inequalities between women and men as agents for change in peacemaking activities. While these efforts are embraced by mediators per se, addressing these inequalities in practice has achieved mixed results and can be subject of debate between those doing mediation and those supporting mediation from a distance. This policy brief does not advocate for either a normative or pragmatic approach to integrating mediation and gender, but instead aims to illuminate key conceptual debates and practical realities in the ground in different peace processes around the world. It also illustrates the specific opportunities and challenges faced by national governments in implementing the WPS Agenda at the national policy level through National Action Plans. The policy brief concludes with suggested research agendas and questions for debate and discussion.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Transitional Justice
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
56. Syria Crisis Fair Share Analysis 2016
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- The number of people in need as a result of the conflict in Syria continues to rise, but the international aid response has failed to keep up. The donor conference in London on 4 February 2016 is another opportunity to reverse that trend and put Syrian civilians first. Oxfam is calling for rich states to commit to fully funding this year’s Syria crisis response appeal and to resettle 10 percent of all registered Syrian refugees by the end of 2016. Oxfam has developed indicators to determine the fair level of commitment that each wealthy country should make to the appeals in 2016 to alleviate the suffering of those affected by the Syria crisis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and Syria
57. Papua's Insecurity: State Failure in the Indonesian Periphery
- Author:
- Bobby Anderson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- West Papua is the most violent area of Indonesia. Indonesian security forces battle the country's last active separatist insurgency there. The majority of Indonesia's political prisoners are Papuans, and support for independence is widespread. But military repression and indigenous resistance are only one part of a complex topography of insecurity in Papua: vigilantism, clan conflict, and other forms of horizontal violence produce more casualties than the vertical conflict that is often the exclusive focus of international accounts of contemporary Papua. Similarly, Papua's coerced incorporation into Indonesia in 1969 is not unique; it mirrors a pattern of long-term annexation found in other remote and highland areas of South and Southeast Asia. What distinguishes Papua is the near-total absence of the state in indigenous areas. This is the consequence of a morass of policy dysfunction over time that compounds the insecurity that ordinary Papuans face. The author illuminates the diverse and local sources of insecurity that indicate too little state as opposed to too much, challenges common perceptions of insecurity in Papua, and offers a prescription of policy initiatives. These include the reform of a violent and unaccountable security sector as a part of a broader reconciliation process and the urgent need for a comprehensive indigenous-centered development policy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia
58. Aligning Unevenly: India and the United States
- Author:
- Dinshaw Mistry
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In the early and mid-2000s, US policymakers anticipated India becoming one of America's top global partners. Have New Delhi's policies on key strategic issues actually aligned strongly with US objectives, as would be typical of close partners? An analysis of twelve prominent issues in US-India relations indicates that New Delhi's policies mostly converged moderately, rather than to a high extent, with US objectives. Specifically, the alignment between New Delhi's policies and US objectives was high or moderate-to-high on three issues—UN peacekeeping, nonproliferation export controls, and arms sales. It was moderate or low-to-moderate on six issues—China, Iran, Afghanistan, Indian Ocean security, Pakistan, and bilateral defense cooperation. And it was low or negligible on three issues—nuclear reactor contracts for US firms, nuclear arms control, and the war in Iraq. To be sure, despite the low or negligible convergence, New Delhi did not take an anti-US position on these issues. Four factors explain why New Delhi's policies aligned unevenly with US objectives across the issues: India's strategic interests (that diverged from US interests on some issues); domestic political and economic barriers (that prevented greater convergence between India's policies and US objectives); incentives and disincentives (that induced New Delhi to better align with US objectives); and certain case-specific factors. This analysis suggests that, rather than expecting India to become a close ally, US policymakers should consider it a friendly strategic partner whose policies would align, on the average, moderately with US strategic interests.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Political Economy, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
59. Syria: Fate of Assad Impedes Success of Geneva III
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines developments regarding resolution of the Syrian issue, particularly in light of three key events: Russia’s announcement of a withdrawal, Geneva III talks and the opposition’s latest announcement that they wanted the talks to cease given increasing aggression on civilian areas. For the opposition belonging to the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), Assad cannot have a role in Syria’s political future, particularly given that his regime and its allies is responsible for 95 per cent of the casualties in the country, far exceeding any other actors in Syria, including the Islamic State organisation.(1) This policy brief looks at the outcomes of the third round of Geneva III, what Russia has gained from its intervention and so-called withdrawal, and argues that any future proposals for Syria which maintain Assad’s position will result in continuation of fighting.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Civil War
- Political Geography:
- Syria
60. Transitional Justice: Lessons from the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Martina Fischer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- The policy brief examines different approaches and initiatives for transitional justice and reconciliation that have been implemented since the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA) ended the war in Bosnia in 1995. It highlights achievements and innovative approaches in processes of dealing with the past as well as shortcomings and obstacles for reconciliation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Transitional Justice, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Balkans
61. Preliminary reflections on the 2016 Liberian National Conflict-Mapping Exercise
- Author:
- Nontobeko Zondi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Since 2009, the Government of Liberia (GoL), working with its national and international partners, has continued to provide leadership in responding to a myriad of critical conflict factors. It has done this through various peacebuilding frameworks, such as the Strategic Roadmap for National Healing, Peacebuilding and Reconciliation in Liberia, the Liberia Peacebuilding Program (LPP) and the Agenda for Transformation (AFT). In addition, Liberia has concluded its post-Ebola recovery plans, supported by the United Nations (UN) and other partners, in the midst of the UN Mission in Liberia’s (UNMIL) transition in 2016, as well as within the context of the country’s 2017 national elections. It was against this backdrop that the Peacebuilding Office (PBO) within the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD) and other partners had to rethink and reprioritise Liberia’s peacebuilding and reconciliation strategies, programmes and interventions, moving forward. As such, a comprehensive conflict-mapping and conflict analysis exercise was pivotal to allow for a systematic and empirical process in which Liberian conflict issues and potential conflict drivers could be identified. This Policy & Practice Brief (PPB) seeks to reflect on the 2016 National Conflict-Mapping Exercise (NCME) process, as well as the methodological approaches used to gather and analyse the data. It further highlights the importance of the NCME as a process and outlines the supportive role of international partners to the PBO, which guaranteed that the process is locally owned and steered by the PBO. Although it has a definitive end in the form of findings, the NCME itself should be seen as an important component for enhancing the coherence and coordination of peacebuilding interventions in Liberia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peacekeeping, Peace, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Liberia
62. The Role of Inclusive Multi-stakeholder Partnerships in Enhancing Conflict Transformation in the Great Lakes
- Author:
- Bernard Okok Obuoga
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Cyclical conflicts which continue to plague the Great Lakes region of Africa necessitate a reflection on the effectiveness of peacebuilding interventions. While many reasons account for this, without knowledge of triggers of relapse into conflict, and without enhancing grassroots-based approaches to managing the causes of conflict, peace will remain elusive under existing intervention frameworks. The Great Lakes Project (GLP), a collaborative initiative by the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD), the Global Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict (GPPAC), and the Nairobi Peace Initiative – Africa (NPI-Africa) – developed a three-year project in 2012, titled “Consolidating Peacebuilding in the Great Lakes of Africa”. The overall purpose of the project was to ensure that local communities were mobilised to engage with, and address, conflict factors through grassroots civil society organisations (CSOs). The project also sought to identify and address the capacity gaps of local CSOs working towards peace and ensure that systems were established to continuously address conflicts in the region. The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) was identified as a critical partner in building peace in the region, considering its extensive network and access to state and non-state actors. This engagement therefore facilitated partnerships between existing CSO-platforms; strengthened their early warning systems and strengthened their conflict management capabilities towards building resilient infrastructures for sustainable peace. While undertaking its mandate, the GLP identified various challenges and policy gaps, which included the lack of strategic approaches to prevent conflict relapse. This paper illustrates and interrogates the dynamics of these shortcomings, and defines the role of inclusive, multi-stakeholder partnerships to address these.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa
63. The institutionalisation of mediation support within the ECOWAS Commission
- Author:
- Brown Odigie
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission established the Mediation Facilitation Division (MFD) in June 2015 to backstop mediation efforts undertaken by its mediation organs, member states, non-state actors and joint initiatives with other international organisations, such as the African Union Commission (AUC) and the United Nations (UN). In January 2016, the structure was further upgraded to a directorate within the Department of Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS). This Policy & Practice Brief (PPB) examines the rationale for taking the bold step to institutionalise a mediation support structure within the ECOWAS Commission; the legal and normative instruments that underpin its mediation interventions; the mandate, vision and scope of operation of the mediation support structure; and the key activities undertaken by the structure within one year of its existence. The PPB identifies the uniqueness of ECOWAS’s experiences in interventions in the 1990s, and the subsequent importance accorded to preventive diplomacy and mediation as a key factor that informed the decision to establish a mediation support structure – in contrast to using an ad hoc arrangement to backstop its mediation efforts in the past. This new arrangement, the PPB argues, will ensure that mistakes such as the marginalisation of ECOWAS in mediation processes in the region, the disconnect between the ECOWAS Commission and its appointed mediators, facilitators and special envoys, are remedied. It will also ensure a coordinated approach to capacity building and mediation knowledge management within the ECOWAS Commission and its institutions, as well as with its partners, including mainstreaming Tracks II and III mediation into official Track I mediation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, and African Union
64. The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region as a peacebuilding instrument for civil society organisations
- Author:
- Patrick Kanyangara
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- This policy paper examines the prospective role of civil society organisations (CSOs) within the mechanisms and structures of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), which was created to address conflict challenges faced by states within the Great Lakes region. The ICGLR was established in 2003 to provide an inclusive platform for countries within the region to work effectively with international actors and CSOs for regional conflict prevention, management and resolution. Although the role of CSOs within the ICGLR initiatives is considered imperative to securing sustainable peace, there remain concerns that the involvement of CSOs is constrained. Through desk research and field surveys, this policy paper explores creative approaches for CSOs to make a valuable impact on the ICGLR initiative. The paper recommends improved and proactive synergy between the ICGLR and CSOs for effective peace and security in the region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa
65. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State in Libya
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The Islamic State has been moving aggressively to exploit the chaos of Libya since last summer, with profound risks for the Mediterranean region and beyond Libya is a perfect breeding ground for an expanded Islamic State, with large amounts of heavy weaponry, systemic lawlessness, a divided population, and sustained armed conflict The group has formed three active and capable groups in Libya-in Tripoli, Fezzan, and Barqa-all of which have conducted deadly attacks in recent months The phenomenon of Islamic State affiliates-beginning in the summer of 2014, before which the group was entirely focused on Iraq and Syria-is actually in the tradition of its arch-rival al-Qaeda the presence and power of the Islamic State in Libya will likely increase as conditions in Syria and Iraq deteriorate for the group, and conditions in Libya continue to worsen.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Libya, and Syria
66. Insurgent Alliances in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Mallory Sutika Sipus
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- One of the contributing factors to Afghanistan’s civil conflict has been the fluidity within military alliances at the sub-national level. This brief examines the circumstances of military alliances between insurgent commanders—what factors play into an alliance and how they are maintained, with assessments resulting from research from the Centre for Conflict and Peace Studies and supported by USIP.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
67. Afghanistan's Continuing Fiscal Crisis: No End In Sight
- Author:
- William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- For several years, Afghanistan’s economy and public finances have worsened, culminating in a full-blown fiscal crisis in 2014. Political uncertainties, the weakening Afghan economy, corruption in tax collection, stagnant government revenues, and increasing expenditures have contributed to the current fiscal impasse. In the absence of bold actions by the Afghan government along with proactive international support to turn around the fiscal situation, the fiscal crisis and its insidious effects will continue.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
68. Promoting Rule of Law: Myth Versus Reality
- Author:
- Christina Murtaugh
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- Rule of law has long been a key international concern, especially for conflict-affected countries, and promoting it is a critical challenge to the international community. This Peace Brief focuses on the misconceptions of what is called the golden hour approach to offer more practicable alternatives. The issue is focus—whether to find a solution among Western paradigms or to empower people, support sustainable change, and provide enough time for the people to act and the process to unfold on their own terms.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Law
69. National Dialogues: A Tool for Conflict Transformation?
- Author:
- Susan Stigant and Elizabeth Murray
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- National dialogue is an increasingly popular tool for conflict resolution and political transformation. It can broaden debate regarding a country’s trajectory beyond the usual elite decision makers; however, it can also be misused and manipulated by leaders to consolidate their power. This brief includes principles to strengthen national dialogue processes and considerations for international actors seeking to support these processes.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Political Economy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
70. Reviving Afghanistan's Economy
- Author:
- William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Some say reviving the Afghan economy in a time of intensifying violent conflict and declining external financial inflows will be impossible. Expectations need to be kept modest, and measures must go beyond conventional economic approaches in order to be effective. This brief puts forward some outside-the-box ideas, which, combined with greater government effectiveness and, hopefully, reductions in violent conflict, may help turn the economy around.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
71. Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations: The Prospect of Reviving Taliban Talks
- Author:
- Moeed Yusuf
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- There are few viable options for resolving Afghanistan’s conflict other than an inclusive peace process between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Momentum toward this goal must be maintained following the “Heart of Asia” Ministerial Conference on December 9, 2015, where Afghan, Pakistani, and U.S. officials renewed their commitment to resuming dialogue. This brief discusses three key concerns that need to be addressed to effectively move the peace process forward and achieve a near-term cease-fire.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Central Asia
72. Conflict Zones, Israel and Diaspora Perspectives in Canadian Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Aya Al-Shachli, Ramina Ghassemi, and Areej Rashid
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- While Canadian Jewish community organizations are actively engaged in lobbying the Canadian government on its foreign policy with Israel and Palestine, it is not at all clear that the perspectives of the Jewish-Israeli diaspora that have emigrated from this conflict zone have been considered. The absence of diaspora voices from the region seems a missed opportunity for the development of a more comprehensive foreign policy position.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, and Diaspora
- Political Geography:
- Canada, Israel, and Palestine
73. Identity in the Pre-Modern Middle East
- Author:
- Berkey Jonathan P.
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- We live in an age of identity politics. We define ourselves by one or more objective measures: measures of race, ethnicity, gender, politics, religion, sexual orientation, to name just a few. Those measures then define who we are to others. They determine our place in society, the communities with which we identify, our attitudes towards others and other communities. The politics of identity are fraught, and they interact in ways that both liberate and confine. On the one hand we prize diversity. On the whole, this is a good thing, since it reflects a larger transformation in American life. Like it or not, the fact is that we are becoming, have become, a “multi-cultural society.” No matter what terms we use to define diversity—racial, ethnic, religious, sexual, gender, whatever—we are more diverse now than we have ever been, and we are destined to grow more so. Multi-culturalism is not an option; it is the future. The only question is how, and how well, we are going to deal with it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Religion, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
74. An Intensified Approach to Combatting the Islamic State
- Author:
- Michele Flournoy and Richard Fontaine
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- In the 11 months since President Barack Obama committed the United States to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), the group has expanded its international reach, metastasized to form offshoots across multiple regions, and increased its perceived momentum. Although U.S. government officials cite a reduction in the overall size of the group’s sanctuary in Iraq and Syria and the killing of thousands of ISIS fighters, the fall of Ramadi and much of Anbar province to the Islamic State served as a wakeup call that current efforts to counter ISIS are not adequate to the task.2 Meanwhile, the threat posed by the terrorist group to Americans at home and abroad appears to be growing as ISIS-inspired individuals conduct attacks targeting Westerners around the globe, including here in the United States.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
75. Defend, Defect, or Desert?: The Future of the Afghan Security Forces
- Author:
- Tyler Jost
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- In "Defend, Defect, or Desert?: The Future of the Afghan Security Forces,” Tyler Jost, a former U.S. Army Company Commander who served two tours in Afghanistan, lays out how the United States can most effectively support the Afghan National Security Forces. Mr. Jost argues that in the coming months, Afghanistan will depend on increasingly independent Afghan security forces to fight a tough insurgency—one that is perhaps even as strong as it was four years ago during the height of U.S. and coalition operations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, War, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
76. Choosing to Return? Prospects for Durable Solutions in Iraq
- Author:
- Rachel Sider
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- In the aftermath of the rapid advance of Daesh through central parts of Iraq, a humanitarian crisis of significant proportion remains. Since March 2015, over 458,000 people have returned to their places of origin. Many have been driven by government guarantees of improved security coupled with a lack of access to land, food and income generating activities in displacement sites. They have returned under precarious conditions, without the support required to ensure progress towards durable solutions, and they rely on assistance to recover and rebuild. Efforts must be made to ensure that returns are safe, dignified and sustainable. This paper outlines the current situation and provides recommendations for the Government of Iraq, UN agencies, donors and NGOs.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Humanitarian Aid, Reconstruction, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Iraq
77. Right to a Future: Empowering refugees from Syria and host governments to face a long-term crisis
- Author:
- David Andres-Vinas, Daniel Gorevan, Martin Hartberg, Melissa Phillips, and Alexandra Saieh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- With no end to the conflict in Syria in sight, the four million people forced to flee the country have no foreseeable prospect of safe return. And as the impact of the crisis on neighbouring countries grows and aid dries up, the situation for these refugees is becoming increasingly dire. This briefing calls for a new approach by the international community, including Syria’s neighbours; one which offers hope, safety and dignity to the millions of refugees, and gives them a chance to contribute to the societies and economies of their hosts.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Syria
78. The Silence of the Guns: Can the Cease-Fire in Donbass Last?
- Author:
- Stanislav Secrieru
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- For the first time since the outbreak of the war in Donbass, the situation on the frontline is nearly a proper cease-fire. This is the outcome of the interplay of three factors: the political-military balance in Donbass, sanctions and Russia’s military intervention in Syria. Nevertheless, it is premature to assume that military options in Donbass are no longer in the cards. Russia is likely to use force if needed to repel a Ukrainian attempt to retake parts of the area, to obstruct the Minsk process if it goes in a disadvantageous direction for Moscow, or to seize more territory if there is further political and social turmoil in Ukraine. To minimize the risks of an eruption of violence in Donbass, the EU and U.S. should prolong the sanctions, fine-tune the diplomatic pressure on both sides to implement and uphold the Minsk Protocols, and pay more attention to the political and economic transformations in the rest of Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Politics, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
79. AKP Snap Election Tactics: Turmoil in Turkey
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Following the 2015 national election in Turkey the AKP, for the first time since coming to power in 2002, failed to win enough votes to form a majority government. Since the election the AKP has given the impression that it is attempting to form a coalition government, but in reality the party has been employing a number of tactics in order to increase its share of the vote in preparation for a snap election. These tactics have mainly revolved around increasing the nationalist vote and damaging the main Kurdish party. However, these manoeuvres have increased polarisation in Turkey and have resulted in an escalation of the conflict with the Kurds. Worryingly, it has become evident that the AKP aims to win power in the next election at all costs.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Politics, Governance, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
80. Nidaa Tounes Rift Exacerbates Government Crisis
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Nidaa Tounes, a party born post-Tunisian revolution, is currently experiencing internal rifts, which in turn is having an impact on the country’s secular-Islamist ruling government’s ability to move forward. This rift became especially obvious after the party’s founder and leader, Beji Caid Essebsi, won the presidency and consequently resigned as party leader according to Tunisia’s constitutional law. This position paper examines key actors and roots of the party’s rift, how this rift has impacted state institutions and future scenarios for the governing coalition.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Terrorism, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Tunisia
81. What Does New Political Push Mean for Syria?
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Syrian armed opposition’s gains, especially in northern Syria, have stirred Russian and US fears about the possibility of a major regime collapse. This has prompted Moscow to return to the political solution approach to avert further expansion of the Islamic State (IS or Daesh) and to stop the regime’s power from completely dissolving. For the US, this has prompted President Obama to intensify bids to Iran for cooperation to resolve the Syrian crisis. This is in part to prove to his Republican opponents that the nuclear deal will contribute to modifying Iran’s behaviour and will motivate the country to cooperate in resolving the region’s crises rather than exacerbating them. Parallel to the military escalation in Zabadani, Iran re-launched its political initiative, which the Syrian opposition rejected, but which the regime quickly accepted because it guarantees its survival. Turkey has directly entered the fray in an effort to protect its interests in northern Syria, managing to broker a US agreement to establish an IS-free zone (which Turkey also intends to be Kurd-free).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Syria
82. Libyan Dialogue: Uphill Battle, Limited Chances for Success
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As analysts and observers attempt to parse out the intricacies of the current Libyan conflict, the United Nations is sponsoring a dialogue to bring together the warring parties and attempt to find a political solution. This paper proposes that while there are factors which increase the likelihood of successful dialogue, the reality is that internal disputes within each of the political parties, as well as regional and international attention to other, more pressing matters, mean that the dialogue is actually an uphill battle.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, Political Parties, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
83. Cybersecurity and Stability in the Gulf
- Author:
- James Andrew Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Gulf has become a flashpoint for cyber conflict. Cyberspace has become an arena for covert struggle, with the United States, Israel and other nations on one side, and Iran and Russia on the other. Iran has far outpaced the GCC states in developing its cyber capabilities, both for monitoring internal dissent and deploying hackers to disrupt or attack foreign targets. Several such attacks over the past two years were likely either directed or permitted by Iranian state authorities. Even if Iran holds back from offensive actions as nuclear talks progress, the growth in Iranian capabilities remains a potential security threat for other Gulf states. The GCC countries have begun to develop their defensive capabilities, but they will need to expand their defenses and collaborate more effectively to deter future threats.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
84. Youth Radicalization in Pakistan
- Author:
- Raheem ul Haque
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Pakistani leaders face serious domestic extremism challenges; more than 47,000 thousand lives have been lost in terrorism-related violence in Pakistan over the past decade. Effective counter-radicalization processes must take into account Pakistan's large young adult population (ages 15-29), which collectively accounts for at least 30 percent of the overall population. Youth radicalization in Pakistan can be understood as the product of an exclusively Islamic identity—meaning a majority of youth identify primarily through their religion over nationality— combined with a broader reactive movement comprised of militant, political and missionary organizations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Demographics, Islam, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia
85. The Taliban's View of the 2014 Elections
- Author:
- Michael Semple
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Afghan Taliban Movement has publicly rejected the legitimacy of the April 2014 elections. The Taliban's military leadership has issued instructions to officials and commanders to disrupt the elections but has left field commanders with wide discretion on how to go about doing so. Many in the Taliban follow the electoral contest closely and comment on developments in terms very similar to how they are described by the political and educated class in Kabul. However, the anti-election sentiment in the Taliban leaves no scope for any faction to cooperate with the process. The Taliban will likely be able to intensify violence approaching the election, but not sufficiently to derail the overall process.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Islam, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
86. Conflict Transformation: Transforming cultures of violence to overcome injustice and poverty
- Author:
- Olloriak Sawade
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- All people have a fundamental right to life and security. Oxfam works to ensure this right is respected, not only by responding to humanitarian emergencies, but by addressing the violent conflict which, as its Humanitarian Strategy 2020 recognises, is one of the key drivers of poverty. That is why conflict transformation has become one of the 'crosscutting issues' running through Oxfam's programmes and tackling some of the key driving factors that fuel direct, cultural and structural violence.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil Society, Humanitarian Aid, and Power Politics
87. In the Balance: Searching for protection in eastern DRC
- Author:
- Hannah Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- As 2014 starts, there are reasons to hope that peace may be in sight in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). National initiatives and committed regional and international political engagement in 2013 led to important advances and new framework agreements to resolve the conflict and insecurity. However, the people Oxfam talked to across eastern DRC reported that their situation remains precarious, particularly in remote areas where there is little state presence. Ongoing national, regional and international engagement is needed, as well as efforts to ensure that high level agreements and initiatives are systematically linked to community experiences. Without these, it is possible that this rare opportunity will be wasted.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa
88. Why Afghanistan's Provincial Council Elections Matter
- Author:
- Noah Coburn and Anna Larson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan's Provincial Councils (PCs) represent one of the best hopes for the future of local democracy in Afghanistan. Yet since their shaky formation in 2005, they continue to be overlooked by international actors preferring to interact with parliamentarians, ministers and appointed governors. The significance assigned by Afghans to winning PC seats has steadily increased over the last decade. Indeed, for many, the April 5 PC elections will do more than the presidential poll to determine whether democratic practices continue to take root in local politics. PC elections offer a chance to build local, personal ties and accountability mechanisms connecting to increasingly centralized government resources, and, in particular, an opportunity for a new generation of young, motivated Afghans to begin their political careers. As the locally-visible manifestation of the Afghan political system, PCs are the immediate face of democracy—or a lack thereof—for many Afghans. In 2009, with most news stories covering the widespread fraud in the presidential contest, the uproar over the fraud and delay throughout the PC polling process rarely received coverage on newspaper front pages. Yet those problems contributed significantly to people's sense of alienation and disillusionment with their country's political actors and electoral institutions. In spite of these experiences, Afghans are once again preparing to go to the polls. Voters, candidates, parties and local organizations are putting greater emphasis than ever on the process of provincial council polling—expressing concern about the prospects for fraud, mobilizing around their candidates and campaigning in earnest. If due attention to the process is not paid by the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and by international agencies, popular participation in future elections could drop. Prospects for Afghan democratization will depend much on how these and future provincial-level elections are conducted.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Demographics, Development, Islam, Politics, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
89. Last Chance: The International Community and the 2014 Afghan Elections
- Author:
- Scott S. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan's democratic development has taken place within the tight embrace of international support and the conception of "free and fair" elections that comes with it, but Afghan and inter-national views on what to expect from elections have diverged in the past, leading to a deepening of distrust between the Karzai-led Afghan government and the international community. The run-up to the 2014 presidential elections has been shaped by this distrust. Nonetheless, with the breakdown of the reconciliation effort with the Taliban and uncertainty about the result of the transition process due to President Hamid Karzai's unexpected refusal to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), the April 5 election is the only remaining opportunity for a political resolution of the continuing crisis in Afghanistan. A more complete understanding of the 2009 elections—how they were and were not a disaster—can help to narrow the gap between Afghan and international expectations; and an understanding of some of the changes that have occurred in Afghan society since 2009 can offer reason for optimism that the election will at the least create space for political elites to address the root causes of the crisis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Corruption, Democratization, Political Economy, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
90. Reintegrating Armed Groups in Afghanistan: Lessons from the Past
- Author:
- Deedee Derksen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- A piecemeal approach to disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) in Afghanistan, with four DDR programs since 2001 each targeting specific groups, has yielded limited results, mostly due to an extremely adverse political environment. Comprehensive DDR is unlikely to work without a settlement that includes all armed groups. The success of such a deal would in turn hinge on the successful reintegration of commanders and fighters. Sequencing DDR in the conventional way may not work; reintegration might better precede disarmament.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
91. Egypt's Solvency Crisis
- Author:
- Steven A. Cook
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Egypt is experiencing a deep economic crisis. The country's foreign currency r e serves are less than half of what they were before the January 2011 uprising, threatening Egypt's ability to pay for food and fuel. Egypt's budget deficit is 14 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and its overall debt, which is the result of accumulated deficits, is more than the country's economic output. In this difficult economic climate, roughly 4 5 percent of Egyptians live on less than two dollars per day. Inflation, which reached as high as 12.97 percent after the July 2013 military coup, is currently at 11.4 percent. Tourism revenue—traditionally a primary source of foreign currency along with Suez Canal tolls and remittances from Egyptians working abroad—is less than half of what it was in the last full year before the uprising. Foreign direct investment has dried up outside the energy sector. Unemployment remains high at 13.4 percent. Among the unemployed, 71 percent are between fifteen and twenty-nine years old. This economic weakness makes it politically difficult to address the problems that contribute to a potential solvency crisis because the necessary reforms will impose hardship on a population that is already experiencing economic pain.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, Regime Change, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt
92. Creating Sustainable Peacekeeping Capability in Africa
- Author:
- Daniel Hampton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Over 60,000 African troops from 39 different nations serve in peace operations worldwide. Maintaining African peacekeeping capability requires an ongoing training process to sustain the skill proficiency of troop contingents for rapid deployment and crisis response. Continued reliance on international trainers undercuts the institutionalization of African peacekeeping capability. An African-led training model would not only be more sustainable but would draw on the relevant, practical experience that African peacekeepers have gained over the years.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa
93. The Central African Republic – a history of a collapse foretold?
- Author:
- Morten Bøås
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Political instability and administrative weakness have been permanent features of the Central African Republic (CAR) ever since independence. This is, therefore, the history of a collapse foretold. Michel Djotodia may have had good intentions when he put together the Séléka alliance; the problem was that the only thing that kept it together was the desire to get rid of François Bozizé. When Bozizé was gone, the coalition's internal coherence also disappeared. Thus, for lack of other options, the alliance members continued to make their livelihoods based on plunder. As the situation worsened, the communities plundered established their own militias, and the stage was set for a simmering sectarian conflict between Christians and Muslims. It is in this mess of communal violence that the international forces are supposed to re-establish law and order. The main challenge, however, is how to avoid adding fuel to the sectarian fire. The international forces must tread carefully, and any attempt at disarming militias must be conducted with this in mind. What has happened and is happening is tragic, but it is neither genocide nor a full-blown sectarian conflict. This can still be avoided if the international forces behave impartially with regard to the two main religious communities in the country.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Religion, Sectarian violence, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa
94. Russian thinking in the Ukraine crisis: From drawing a line of defence to seeing a threat to national security
- Author:
- Katri Pynnöniemi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Three articles written by Russian foreign policy analyst Sergei Karaganov and published at the turning points of the Ukraine conflict shed light on how the reasoning on Russia's strategic interests in Ukraine has evolved amid the conflict. The meaning of the conflict, as explained in the first essay, is that Russia is drawing a line of defence against Western interference in its sphere of interest. In the second essay, the assertion that with the Crimean operation Russia has forced the West to put an end to the Cold War, is reconfigured into a choice that Russia needs to make between the Western or non-Western path. Finally, in an essay written after the downing of flight MH17, it is argued that without de-escalation the situation in Donbass will become a threat to Russian national security. The evolution of the argumentation shows that some sort of 'reality check' has occurred in the vicinity of the general line. However, while the dangers inherent in the conflict are recognized, Karaganov fails to acknowledge Russia's active involvement in the conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
95. TSG IntelBrief: Foreign Fighters in Syria: A Growing Threat
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The number of foreign fighters is high, 12,000 and counting, and the spread of countries they come from covers much of the globe. Two recent events involving foreign fighters show the radicalizing influence of the war. With the support to bolster Syria's more secular rebel forces at times inconsistent and tepid, the lack of an alternative has accelerated a natural gravitation towards extremist elements. It will be hard to know which returnees pose a threat, and harder still to deal with them. Given that the number of foreign fighters already exceeds those that went to Afghanistan, government resources will be severely strained to monitor all returnees and will have to rely on the help of local communities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Syria
96. TSG IntelBrief: : Foreign Fighters from North Africa in Syria and Iraq
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- No region has seen more of its people travel to fight in Syria than North Africa; more than 3,000 Tunisians have traveled there as of last April, and more than 1,500 Moroccans This is a repeat of a decade ago when large numbers of North Africans traveled to Iraq to fight there as well, in proportions far above those of neighboring countries A significant number of recent North African fighters have conducted suicide bombings in both Iraq and Syria, highlighting that the deadly ideological message of the so-called Islamic State (IS) and other extremist groups is finding purchase in North Africa The reasons for this export of extremists include incomplete political reforms that have failed to redress serious societal issues, persistent high youth unemployment, and a failure to cope with the apparent high levels of disaffection, despair, and anger that drive people to choose violent extremism.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Syria
97. TSG IntelBrief:: The Bomb-Proof Finances of the Islamic State
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- Attacking the finances of the so-called Islamic State (IS) with limited collateral damage will be orders of magnitude more difficult than attacking its military factions The group has thoroughly embedded itself into local and regional economies in Syria and Iraq, and damaging its finances while not devastating civilian populations will be as difficult as it is necessary IS oil revenues might be the easiest to disrupt but such action comes with significant collateral economic damage, while taxes, tolls, extortion, and food sales generate more income while remaining highly resistant to external forces In the areas under its control, IS has been providing social services as well as delivering levels of fuel, electricity, and food to populations utterly without recourse, meaning the group needs to be replaced and not simply removed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
98. TSG IntelBrief: Turkey Steps In: A Good Thing?
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The Turkish parliament's vote to authorize the deployment of military forces in Syria and Iraq provided a legal and official framework for such action It may appear to be a positive step in degrading and destroying the putative Islamic State (IS), however, the parliament in its vote used the broader term "terrorist organizations," thus the landscape for Turkey, Syria-Iraq, and regional states and interests remains exceptionally complex Though there is nearly universal and implacable opposition to IS among all actors in Syria and Iraq, Turkey's future role-depending on steps taken-could aggravate tensions not only with Arab Gulf states and Kurdish elements in Syria and Iraq, but Iran, Russia, and the Iraqi government Turkey's desire to create a buffer zone on the Syrian side of its common border remains one of the most sensitive issues Amid reports of increased IS pressure on Kobani, Kurdish PKK has insinuated Turkey will be to blame-not IS-for creating conditions for the refugee crisis, and threatens to resume opposition activity in Turkey. The Turkish parliament's vote Thursday to authorize use of its army and military facilities in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS) may appear at first look to be a positive step for the broader coalition. The measures-to be determined-are in addition to any financial, diplomatic, humanitarian, and support activities for the anti-IS coalition. However, parliament's vote did not entail Turkey's officially joining the coalition. After the recent deal-details yet to be revealed-to bring home over 40 hostages IS had taken from Turkey's consulate in Mosul, Iraq, in June 2014, pressure increased for Turkey to take military steps in the anti-IS fight. A factor increasing the possibility of military action is Turkish special operations forces' guarding the tomb of Suleyman Shah, a Turkish enclave in Syria reported to be increasingly surrounded by IS. Though there is almost universal animus toward IS in the region, there is also nearly uniform resistance to Turkey's perceived unilateral military involvement in Syria and Iraq, outside the framework of the anti-IS coalition. Turkey's next moves may cause more conflict than benefit in the anti-IS fight. Indeed, the political landscape for Turkey's moves at home and abroad remains extraordinarily complex.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
99. The Korean Peninsula: Yesterday and Today
- Author:
- Paul Dickler
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- This article will take a snapshot of Korea today and look back to the past to see the origins. It will offer many comparisons between North and South Korea. Why have North Korea (The Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea--DPRK) and South Korea (Republic of Korea—ROK) become what they are in the present, and what are the most likely scenarios for their future? Is reunification likely, or even desired by Koreans today? Are the troop commitments from the United States going to last another 60 years, or will events change that dynamic?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Israel
100. Licensing Afghan Opium for Medicinal Use: Why It Won't Work
- Author:
- David Mansfield and William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- With large increases in Afghan opium cultivation and production in 2013 and 2014, there is a risk that resulting frustration may give rise to a search for extreme but unproductive solutions. There are no easy solutions to the illegal narcotics problem. The proposal that Afghanistan could shift to licensed production of opium for pain medications will not work. Due to severe problems with governance, rule of law and security, opium licensing in Afghanistan would be subject to extremely high leakages. Afghanistan's comparative advantage in supplying the illicit market means that it would likely expand cultivation to meet demand in both markets. Afghanistan is a high-cost producer of opium, and prices for licensed opium are much lower than on the illegal market, so profits might well be marginal or even negative. Existing producers of licensed opiates— Australia, Turkey, India, France and others—would strongly oppose any move to let Afghanistan become a competitor on the licensed market. Even if a more liberalized market for opiates is envisioned, technological advances and modern techniques in other countries mean that Afghanistan could not be a competitive producer.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Turkey, India, France, and Australia