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Begin New Search Topic Conflict Resolution Content Type Policy Brief

151. Reforming Arab security sectors

Author:
Florence Gaub
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
In 2011, Arab security forces, long suspected to be inextricably linked to their respective regimes, once again became decisive political agents in their own right: agents of change, agents of repression and, in some cases, both. Their facilitation or suppression of democratic transitions has sparked a long-overdue debate on security sector reform in the Arab world. What are the main features of security sectors in the region? What are the main obstacles to reform? And why is this debate taking place only now?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arabia

152. Business and the Barrel of a Gun: Understanding Entrepreneurship and Violent Conflict in Developing Countries

Author:
Philip Verwimp, Wim Naudé, and Tilman Brück
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Although the impacts of violent conflict on investment, production, incomes and inequality have been widely studied on an aggregate level, comparatively less is known about the more diverse impacts of such conflict at the micro (particularly firm) level. Understanding such impacts can improve policies to mitigate the human and financial costs of violent conflict in developing countries. This policy brief discusses lessons from recent studies to address this gap.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and War

153. Assessing Turkey's Role in Somalia

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Turkey is the newest country to intervene in Somalia and its involvement has produced some positive results. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's courageous visit to Mogadishu in August 2011 at the height of the famine and his decision to open an embassy gave fresh impetus to efforts to establish lasting peace. Widespread Somali gratitude for Turkish humanitarian endeavours and the country's status as a Muslim and democratic state established Turkey as a welcome partner. Ankara has signalled it is in for the long haul. However, it must tread prudently, eschew unilateralism and learn lessons to avoid another failed international intervention. Over twenty years, many states and entities have tried to bring relief and secure peace in Somalia, often leaving behind a situation messier than that which they found. Ankara must appreciate it alone cannot solve the country's many challenges, but must secure the support and cooperation of both the Somali people and international community. Trying to go solo could backfire, hamper ongoing efforts and lose the immense good-will it has accumulated.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, Peace Studies, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa, Central Asia, Turkey, and Somalia

154. Towards efficient early action: The EU needs a regional focus and proactive tools to prevent and manage conflicts

Author:
Tanja Tamminen
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Lisbon Treaty and the European External Action Service provide the EU with an excellent framework for comprehensive and effective crisis prevention and crisis management work. They just need to be utilised to the full. The security and development nexus can only be enhanced through long-term perspectives. Rather than renewing its general security strategy, the EU's focus should be on preparing tailor made and institutionally endorsed regional approaches and strategies, where the broad objectives would be operationalized into more concrete goals. In conflict-prone regions, goal-setting should be carried out through full participation with the beneficiary countries and their civil societies. Dialogue and mediation are perfect tools for achieving reconciliation and stability, and need to be utilized at every stage of comprehensive crisis management and at different levels of society. Comprehensive EU activities in the field of crisis prevention and crisis management should be duly evaluated, as only by looking at the bigger picture can lessons truly be learned and endorsed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Lisbon

155. Giving the Surge Partial Credit for Iraq's 2007 Reduction in Violence

Author:
Stephen Biddle, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Jeffrey A. Friedman
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Why did violence decline in Iraq in 2007? Many credit the "surge," or the program of U.S. reinforcements and doctrinal changes that began in January 2007. Others cite the voluntary insurgent stand-downs of the Sunni Awakening or say that the violence had simply run its course after a wave of sectarian cleansing. Evidence drawn from recently declassified data on violence at local levels and a series of seventy structured interviews with coalition participants finds little support for the cleansing or Awakening theses. This analysis constitutes the first attempt to gather systematic evidence across space and time to help resolve this debate, and it shows that a synergistic interaction between the surge and the Awakening was required for violence to drop as quickly and widely as it did.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

156. Mitigating the Consequences of Violent Conflict: What Works and What Does Not?

Author:
Robert Muggah and Birger Heldt
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The purpose of the second International Expert Forum, "Mitigating the Consequences of Violent Conflict: What Works and What Does Not?," which was held at IPI on June 6, 2012, was to take stock of the consequences of ongoing violent conflict and means to prevent and reduce them, including peacekeeping operations and special envoys. The ambition was to identify patterns and formulate lessons learned and policy implications in the short, medium, and long term. The forum was divided into three sessions: mapping the trends and causes of violence against civilians; mapping the challenges and impact of peacekeeping operations; and mapping the challenges and impact of special envoys.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, Peace Studies, and United Nations

157. Georgian Dream or Nightmare? Transition of power poses great challenges for Georgia and its foreign relations

Author:
Teemu Sinkkonen
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The victory of the Georgian Dream Coalition (GDC) over the United National Movement (UNM) has brought pluralism into Georgian policymaking. Until the power shifts from the President to the Prime Minister in 2013, the country will be led by an awkward dual power. New leadership offers great opportunities for Georgia. It can improve its democratic system and economic growth and establish a dialogue with Russia and the breakaway districts of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This would alleviate the frozen conflict and tense security dilemma on the boundary lines. If the transition of power does not go well, there will be prolonged power struggles that could cripple the policymaking and cast Georgia back to pre-Saakashvili times. Saakashvili's UNM is still a very significant player in Georgian politics and it is important for the GDC and the UNM to find a way to cooperate. In order to smooth the fragile transition period, Georgia needs special support and attention.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Government

158. Terrorism in Perspective: An Assessment of 'Jihad Project' Trends in Indonesia

Author:
Julie Chernov Hwang
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The face of extremism in Indonesia has changed dramatically over the past decade. While the security threat from Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and other Salafi-Jihadist groups remains, it has diminished significantly from its heyday in the early 2000s. With many hardline leaders now in prison or dead and current mainstream leaders reluctant to support terror attacks, violence as a means to establish an Islamic state appears to be losing favor in militant circles. New followers continue to be radicalized through a number of channels, but there are also former radicals who are disengaging as they grow disillusioned with movement tactics and leadership, as they develop new relationships, and as their priorities shift. The organized, large-scale bombings have declined, largely in response to a changing security environment. Small-scale attacks and targeted assassinations are still prevalent, but these are often the actions of small splinter groups or unaffiliated individuals. Within JI itself, support for terror attacks on Indonesian soil is increasingly a minority-held view.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Indonesia

159. EU engagement in the Sahel: lessons from Somalia and AfPak

Author:
Damien Helly
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
On 19 November, the Council of the EU welcomed the Crisis Management Concept for a possible EU training mission for Mali, paving the way for the launch of a CSDP operation replicating the work done in Uganda with Somali troops. And many in Brussels have started to speak of EUTM Mali, as if EUTM and more generally the EU approach to the crisis in Somalia was a relevant model for action in Mali.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Terrorism, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Uganda, Afghanistan, Africa, Europe, Somalia, Mali, and Mauritania

160. Renewed Violence in Iraq

Author:
Douglas A. Ollivant
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Iraq remains a fragile state deeply traumatized and riven by thirty years of war, sanctions, occupation, and civil strife. Although there are numerous positive signs of progress in Iraq—violence has fallen to its lowest level since 2003, its economy is growing modestly, oil production recently surpassed that of Iran, and foreign investment is beginning to restore infrastructure decayed by years of war and sanctions—the risk of acute instability and renewed conflict remains. Already, in the wake of the U.S. military withdrawal in December 2011, Iraq has seen a fierce political struggle between Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and many of his rivals in the Sunni-dominated Iraqiya parliamentary coalition, plus increasing tension with at least some segments of the Kurdish minority. For the positive trends to continue, Iraq will need to contain various threats to internal stability and weather regional turmoil that could worsen significantly in the coming months. The United States has a significant stake in helping Iraq overcome these challenges; Iraq is a critical state within a critical region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Oil, Fragile/Failed State, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

161. Commodities of War: Communities speak out on the true cost of conflict in eastern DRC

Author:
Steven Van Damme
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The past year has seen massive displacement, increasing volatility and widespread suffering among communities in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). International attention has focused on the emergence of the M23 rebel group in April 2012, which has resulted in a disintegration of state control and violence, with severe humanitarian consequences. However, this is not so much a new crisis as a dramatic new dimension to a protracted conflict that has trapped communities in a relentless cycle of chronic abuse and constant insecurity, corroding people's ability to lift themselves out of poverty.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

162. Beyond Ceasefire: Ending the blockade of Gaza

Author:
Martin Hartberg
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The ceasefire agreed between the Government of Israel and Hamas on 21 November 2012, following the recent military escalation in Gaza and southern Israel, provides an unprecedented opportunity to end the cycle of violence that has affected too many innocent Israeli and Palestinian civilians. In the ceasefire understanding, the parties agreed to negotiate 'opening the crossings' into the Gaza Strip and to put an end to 'restricting residents' free movement and targeting residents in border areas'. It is therefore also a unique chance to once and for all lift the Israeli blockade on Gaza, which has had a devastating impact on the lives and well-being of Gaza's civilian population and on Palestinian development.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Islam, War, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

163. No membership without stability in Northern Kosovo: Seven recommendations on how to achieve it

Author:
Imke Pente
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
With a three-month postponement, the European Council agreed to grant Candidate Status to Serbia in early March. This right and groundbreaking decision may yet not release Serbia from settling its relationship with Kosovo and from advancing in settling Kosovo's status. Serbia implemented the agreements of the Pristina-Belgrade dialogue held under the auspices of the European External Action Service only sluggishly. The dialogue has been subject to recurrent adjournments due to growing tensions between the conflicting parties. The fatal escalation of the customs conflict between Serbia and Kosovo in July 2011 illustrated the limbo in northern Kosovo threatening to overturn. The clear results of the referendum about the recognition of the government in Pristina held in Northern Kosovo in February 2012 constitute yet another indicator for the deadlock between the Albanian and Northern Serb communities. For the sake of stability, the EU member states must not be lenient with the status settlement question before allowing Serbia membership in the European Union.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

164. A wake-up call from enlargement fatigue: The cases of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia

Author:
Anne Bercio and Katrin Böttger
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
Given the current criticism of EU foreign policy after the Lisbon Treaty, the EU urgently needs success in the Western Balkan’s approximation to the EU in order to reassert its own foreign policy standing. After the 2004 enlargement, the EU has been widely advocating its accession policy as its most successful foreign policy instrument. With the Western Balkan countries’ ambitions for and great expectations in a future EU membership, the confirmation of the “European perspective” at Thessaloniki 2003, should have put them on a stable and progressive path towards European Union membership.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Serbia

165. L'Est du Congo : la rébellion perdue des ADF-Nalu

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Les Forces démocratiques alliées-Armée nationale de libération de l'Ouganda (ADF-N alu) sont un des groupes armés les plus anciens et les moins connus de l'Est de la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) et le seul de cette région à être considér é comme une organisation terroriste appartenant à la nébuleuse islamiste d'Afrique de l'Est. S'ils ne constituent pas une menace déstabilisatrice comme le Mouvement du 23 mars (M23), ils tiennent cependant tête à l'armée congolaise depuis 2010. Créé en RDC en 1995 et situé aux confins montagneux de la RDC et de l'Ouganda, ce groupe armé congolo-ougandais fait preuve d'une extraordinaire résilience qui tient à sa position géostratégique, son inse rtion dans l'économie transfrontalière et la corruption de s forces de sécurité. Par con- séquent, avant d'envisager toute nouvelle intervention militaire contre les ADF-Nalu, il convient de faire la part du mythe et de la réalité et de réduire sa base socioéconomique tout en proposant une offre de démobilisation et de réinsertion à ses combattants.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa

166. Threats to Security in the Sahel: The Mali Crisis

Author:
Mohamed Mahmoud Mohamed Salah
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
This issue brief provides a view from the Sahel on the current threats to peace and security in the region. As part of its project on peace and security in the Sahel- Sahara region, IPI's Africa Program has partnered with the Mauritania-based think tank, the Centre for Strategies for Security in the Sahel Sahara Region. The Centre 4S was established in June 2011 to help countries in the Sahel take the lead in transforming the region's daunting security and development challenges into opportunities. Originally written in French, this June 2012 research paper from the Centre 4S examines the principal threats to peace and security in the Sahel and their impact on development. It then offers proposals and recommendations for surmounting the current conflicts before presenting possible future scenarios for the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
North Africa

167. Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril

Author:
Robin Wright and Garrett Nada
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Middle East faces even bigger challenges in 2013 than it did during the first two years of the so-called Arab Spring. So far—a pivotal caveat—the Arab uprisings have deepened the political divide, worsened economic woes and produced greater insecurity. Solutions are not imminent either. More than 120 million people in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen have experienced successful uprisings that ousted four leaders who together ruled a total of 129 years. But more than half of the Arab world's 350 million people have yet to witness any real change at all. Defining a new order has proven far harder than ousting old autocrats. Phase one was creating conditions for democracy. Phase two is a kind of democratic chaos as dozens of parties in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia do political battle (and in some cases physical battle) over constitutions. Ancien regimes have not totally given up, as in Yemen. The cost of change has exceeded even the highest estimates, as in Syria. So most Arabs are probably disappointed with the “Arab Spring” for one of many reasons. Nevertheless the uprisings were never going to happen in one season. This is instead only the beginning of a decades-long process—as most in the West should know from their own experiences.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Post Colonialism, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

168. Political Economy and Conflict Dimensions of Afghanistan's Mineral Resources: A Preliminary Exploration

Author:
William Byrd
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan has sizable underground mineral resources, which have potential positive economic impacts but also possible downsides—the so-called “resource curse” often involving negative macroeconomic, developmental, fiscal, governance, political and conflict effects. The success of the broader political transition in coming years as well as regional geopolitical factors will have a major influence on prospects for Afghanistan's underground resources. For “mega-resources” such as the Aynak copper and Hajigak iron deposits, the Afghan government has conducted credible tendering to ensure that contracts with foreign companies are on favorable terms for Afghanistan. Good-practice approaches for mega-resources should continue and be further strengthened, but there will probably be further delays in exploitation, and realization of potential will take much time. Exploitation of other largish and medium-sized resources may involve joint ventures with politically-connected Afghan firms and deals with local strongmen, or sometimes criminal networks with linkages to corrupt officials and insurgents. Spreading patronage can reduce short-run conflict risks, but there are risks of corruption, and conflicts could arise over time. For these resources, priorities include transparent contracting and clarity about ownership of companies; setting basic financial parameters for different resources (e.g. royalty rates) to reduce the risk of overly favorable arrangements for extracting entities; and addressing criminal elements and associated corruption. For smaller, concentrated, high-value resources (notably gemstones), informal exploitation using crude techniques is typically combined with illicit export trade, and local strongmen are involved, which can mean periods of stability but also conflicts when bargains are reopened or new actors get involved. The way forward for these resources includes gradually improving and regularizing the framework; setting low royalty rates to encourage formalization of existing activities rather than leasing resources to outsiders; technical assistance to promote more effective extraction; and encouraging processing and value addition within Afghanistan. Finally, further analytical work is required to better understand the political economy and conflict ramifications of mining in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

169. A Diplomatic Milestone for Mindanao?

Author:
Jennifer M. Keister
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
A recent framework agreement between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) leaves much yet to do in building peace in Mindanao, but does offer an opportunity for careful progress. Many of the problems that have plagued previous agreements in Mindanao's 40-year conflict still exist. The international community has an opportunity to support progress and avoid a repeat of previous agreements' disappointments. Careful foreign aid policies that empower locals and do not foster competition can be critical in building peace in Mindanao.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Israel and Philippines

170. Somalia: An Opportunity that Should Not Be Missed

Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The next six months will be crucial for Somalia. The international community is taking a renewed interest in the country; the mandate of the feeble and dysfunctional Transitional Federal Government (TFG) expires in a half-year; and emboldened troops from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), Kenya and Ethiopia are keen to deal the weakened (though still potent) extremist Islamist movement Al-Shabaab further defeats. This confluence of factors presents the best chance in years for peace and stability in the south and centre of the country. To achieve that, however, requires regional and wider international unity of purpose and an agreement on basic principles; otherwise spoilers could undermine all peacebuilding efforts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

171. Now or Never: A Negotiated Transition for Syria

Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
One year into the Syrian uprising, the level of death and destruction is reaching new heights. Yet, outside actors – whether regime allies or opponents – remain wedded to behaviour that risks making an appalling situation worse. Growing international polarisation simultaneously gives the regime political space to maintain an approach – a mix of limited reforms and escala ting repression – that in the longer run is doomed to fail; guarantees the opposition' s full militarisation, which could trigger all - out civil war; and heightens odds of a regional proxy war that might well precipitate a dangerous conflagration. Kofi Annan' s appointment as joint UN/Arab League Special Envoy arguably offers a chance to rescue fading prospects for a negotiated transition. It must not be squandered. For that, Russia and others must understand that, short of rapidly reviving a credible political track, only an intensifying military one will remain, with dire consequences for all.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

172. The Koran Desecration and the Role of Religion in Conflict

Author:
Qamar ul Huda
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The recent desecration of the Koran and Islamic writings caused violent unrest in Afghanistan and raises concerns about essential training in culture and religion for U.S. personnel. Basic knowledge of religious actors and their roles in peacebuilding and conflict management is still barely factored in by policymakers and advisers to U.S. government. There needs more effort by local, regional, and international religious leaders to promote nonviolent and tolerant reactions even in midst of incendiary events. An assessment is needed to evaluate whether efforts at promoting inter-cultural sensitivity are working or not, and identifying processes for mitigating tensions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Religion, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

173. Using US Strategic Reserves to Moderate Potential Oil Price Increases from Sanctions on Iran

Author:
Philip K. Verleger
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The United States has initiated new sanctions against Iran aimed at preventing it from collecting revenue from exports of crude oil. The European Union has followed, embargoing all imports of Iranian crude from July 1, 2012 and preventing any firms from entering into new contracts to import Iranian oil after January 23, 2012. The new US and EU sanctions could be the most draconian in many years. If implemented fully, US sanctions would force trading partners to choose between the United States and Iran. EU sanctions would cut Iran off from an important market. These sanctions, while reducing Iranian income, could pose a very serious economic threat to countries that have significant trade with the United States and/or import significant quantities of oil from Iran.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Oil, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

174. Development Cooperation, Climate Change and Conflict

Author:
Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde and Mikkel Funder
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Development cooperation cannot entirely eliminate the risk of climate change aggravating climate-related conflict. But it can help address some of the root causes, and support frameworks for managing and resolving them before they escalate into violence. Addressing climate-related conflict prevention and resolution in development cooperation will: reduce the impact of conflict in terms of increasing poverty and marginalisation. Conflict prevention and resolution can help minimise conflict as a risk factor for the poor, and thereby improve the options and resources for livelihood improvement. contribute to macro-economic development. Preventing and resolving conflicts can help provide more stable environments for production and investment. contribute to good governance and institutional development. Institutional frameworks can help sustain and develop spaces for risk-free expression of interests and grievances, and thereby contribute to open and democratic governance. enhance the results of development interventions. Conflict prevention and resolution can help ensure that the outcomes of interventions across the full range of sectors are more effective and sustainable. ensure that development cooperation does not in itself contribute to conflict. Conflict-sensitive programmes can ensure that development interventions do not lead to increased tensions and conflicts of interest.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Climate Change, Development, and International Cooperation

175. Syria's Phase of Radicalisation

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As the 10 April deadline Kofi Annan (the UN and Arab League joint Special Envoy) set for implementation of his peace plan strikes , the conflict ' s dynamics have taken an ugly and worrying turn. Syrians from all walks of life appear dumbfounded by the horrific levels of violence and hatred generated by the crisis. Regime forces have subjected entire neighbourhoods to intense bombardment, purportedly to crush armed opposition groups yet with no regard for civilians. Within the largest cities, innocent lives have been lost due to massive bomb attacks in the vicinity of key security installations. Perhaps most sickening of all have been pictures displaying the massacre of whole families, including the shattered skulls of young children. The first anniversary of what began as a predominantly peaceful protest movement came and went with only scattered popular demonstrations. Instead, there was immeasurable bloodshed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, United Nations, and Syria

176. Turkey and the Iranian nuclear programme: Key to progress in regional disarmament?

Author:
Hanna Ojanen and Barbara Zanchetta
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The increasing tension around the Iranian nuclear programme and the uncompromising positions of the protagonists have made the goal of creating a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East seem utopic. Yet, the current strategy of maintaining a low profile in the discussions on the zone, while keeping the focus exclusively on Iran, is not likely to lead to progress. Instead, combining the Iranian question with the zone and enlarging the content and scope of the negotiations even further by including Iran's neighbours could be a better strategy. Turkey could play a key role because of its unique relations with Iran, and because of its strong quest for a more prominent international position — if it can only strike the right balance between the role of lead actor and team player. Turkish-Iranian relations could notably inspire the consideration of accompanying pragmatic agreements on regional cooperation in other fields as a way forward for the upcoming Middle East disarmament negotiations in Finland.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Finland

177. Drugs in Afghanistan—A Forgotten Issue?

Author:
William Byrd and David Mansfield
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Opium will continue to be an important part of the Afghan landscape—with political and security as well as economic ramifications. The ongoing security transition (2011-2014) will be accompanied by greater risks to Afghani­stan's polity, security and economy from the illicit drug industry—including through likely further increases in opium production.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Terrorism, War on Drugs, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

178. The Emerging Order in the Middle East

Author:
Marina Ottaway, Paul Salem, Nathan J. Brown, and Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After more than a year of Arab uprisings, the emerging political order in the Middle East is marked by considerable shifts within individual countries as well as at the regional level. Domestically and internationally, new actors are emerging in strong positions and others are fading in importance. Islamist parties are on the rise with many secular forces losing power. And across the region, economic concerns have risen to the fore. These domestic changes have implications for both regional and international actors. There are a number of more ambitious economic and political steps the West should take to respond to these power shifts and engage with these new players.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

179. Humanitarian Funding

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In both conflicts and disasters, people anywhere have the right to the humanitarian assistance and protection that they need. When national governments are unable to provide it, or need support, the international community has a responsibility to help, including through funding humanitarian action by disaster-affected governments, local and national NGOs, the UN and others. Despite increased funding, new donors and initiatives the level and nature of funding remains inadequate.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Non-Governmental Organization, War, Natural Disasters, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
United Nations

180. Provision of Aid by Foreign Military Forces

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Foreign military forces, including UN peacekeeping operations, should not provide relief or development assistance, other than in exceptional cases. Governments should follow the accepted international standards to judge those exceptional circumstances, and determine how military forces should act. These standards are the Guidelines on the Use of Foreign Military and Civil Defence Assets in Disaster Relief [the Oslo Guidelines] for natural disasters, and separate UN guidelines for conflicts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Aid, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
United Nations

181. What It Will Take to Secure Afghanistan

Author:
Max Boot
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Afghanistan is approaching a major inflection point in its long and turbulent history. In 2014 most of the foreign military forces are due to pull out. With them will go the bulk of foreign financing that has accounted for almost all of the state's budget. Twenty fourteen is also the year that Afghanistan is due to hold presidential elections. Hamid Karzai, the only president the country has known since the fall of the Taliban, has said he will not seek another term in office. Thus Afghanistan is likely to have a new president to lead it into a new era. This era will be shaped by many factors, principally decisions made by Afghans themselves, but the United States has the ability to affect the outcome if it makes a sustained commitment to maintain security, improve the political process, and reduce Pakistani interference so as to build on the tenuous gains achieved by the U.S. troop surge since 2010.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Taliban

182. Lessons for UN Electoral Certification from the 2010 Disputed Presidential Poll in Côte d'Ivoire

Author:
Lori-Anne Théroux-Bénoni
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
After the November runoff of the 2010 presidential elections in Côte d'Ivoire, the country's Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) announced that in the preliminary results, Alassane Ouattara, candidate of the Rassemblement des Républicains, had won. The Constitutional Council cancelled the results from several northern electoral areas favourable to Ouattara, however, and declared Laurent Gbagbo, the incumbent president who ran for La Majorité Présidentielle, the winner.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

183. Unfinished Business: A Framework for Peace in the Great Lakes

Author:
Rigobert Minani Bihuzo
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Landmark peace agreements signed in 2002 by 11 African governments and various nonstate armed groups were meant to end 7 years of war that had ravaged Africa's Great Lakes region. A decade later, instability, tightly intertwined with regional geopolitics, persists. Recurring conflict has killed tens of thousands, mostly civilians, and displaced millions of others. The extended instability has also led to a collapse of basic social services and economic activity in parts of the DRC, resulting in manifold more deaths due to malnutrition, lack of access to basic healthcare, and scarce livelihood opportunities.Amid this breakdown, barbaric forms of violence have emerged. During one 4-day period in the summer of 2011, nearly 400 women, men, and children were raped by militia fighters. Since 1996, there have reportedly been more than 200,000 rapes, which are mostly attributed to armed militias.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, Political Economy, Treaties and Agreements, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

184. Statement by Col. Joseph Felter (Ret.) before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee

Author:
Joseph Felter
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
My testimony draws on experience and perspective gained during my career as a US Army Special Forces officer with deployments to Afghanistan most recently in 2010- 2011 as commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Counterinsurgency Advisory and Assistance Team (CAAT) deploying experienced counterinsurgency advisors across all five ISAF regional commands and reporting directly to COMISAF. It is also informed by participation in efforts to build host nation security force capabilities in the Philippines and elsewhere as well as by scholarly research on the effective employment of state security forces to combat insurgency.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Terrorism, War, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

185. Mutual Accountability: Lessons and Prospects for Afghanistan Post-Tokyo

Author:
William Byrd
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
At the Tokyo conference on July 8, donors committed to provide massive civilian aid to Afghanistan and improve aid effectiveness, while the Afghan government committed to a number of governance and political benchmarks. The outcome at Tokyo exceeded expectations, but a review of Afghan and international experience suggests that implementing the Tokyo mutual accountability framework will be a major challenge. The multiplicity of donors could weaken coherence around targets and enforcing benchmarks, and undermine the accountability of the international community for overall funding levels. Uncertain political and security prospects raise doubts about the government's ability to meet its commitments, and political will for needed reforms understandably may decline as security transition proceeds and the next election cycle approaches. It is doubtful whether major political issues can be handled through an articulated mutual accountability framework with benchmarks and associated financial incentives. The civilian aid figure agreed upon at Tokyo ($16 billion over four years) is ambitious and exceeded expectations; if the international community falls short, this could be used to justify the Afghan government failing to achieve its benchmarks. Finally, given past experience there are doubts about how well the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board (JCMB) process (mandated to oversee implementation), and the series of further high-level meetings agreed at Tokyo, will work.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Economics, Governance, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

186. Avoiding Meeting Fatigue: How to make the numerous international meetings on Afghanistan more effective

Author:
William Byrd
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The numerous high-profile international meetings on Afghanistan since 2001 have helped keep attention focused on Afghanistan, elicit financial support, give a “seat at the table” to all partners, generate good strategic documents, and provide a forum for the Afghan government. However, the meetings often have raised excessive expectations; lacked meaningful follow-up; undermined their own objectives; prioritized diplomacy over substance; focused more on donors' issues than Afghan problems; oriented the Afghan government toward donors; diverted resources toward meetings; resulted in meeting fatigue; and sometimes seemingly substituted for action. These meetings can be made more effective by: (1) keeping to realistic expectations; (2) not expecting meetings to substitute for difficult decisions and actions; (3) having substantive, disciplined agendas and avoiding co-optation by diplomatic priorities; (4) matching objectives with the issue(s) the meeting is supposed to address; (5) ensuring quality background work; (6) focusing follow-up on key areas and a few simple, monitorable benchmarks; and (7) keep­ing the number and frequency of meetings manageable.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

187. Jerusalem, Netanyahu and the two-state solution

Author:
Daniel Seidemann
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
What are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's real intentions vis-à-vis Israeli–Palestinian negotiations and the two-state solution? What does he really want? Speculation aside, a great deal can be gleaned about both Netanyahu's core beliefs and his intentions by examining his words and his actions with respect to Jerusalem. Jerusalem is universally recognised as a key permanent status issue, which, for any peace agreement, will require the reconciling of competing Israeli and Palestinian claims as well as recognition and protection of Jewish, Muslim and Christian equities. In the context of the current political stalemate, however, it has become much more than that. Today, Jerusalem is both the volcanic core of the conflict – the place where religion and nationalism meet and combine in a potentially volatile mix – and a microcosm of the conflict and the imbalance of power that characterises developments on the ground.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

188. Transitional justice in Egypt: one step forward, two steps back

Author:
Judy Barsalou
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The dominance of neo-patriarchal, semi-authoritarian regimes with little interest in justice, accountability or other values associated with democratic governance has meant that, until recently, the Arab region has had limited experience with transitional justice (TJ). Several states have started down the TJ path since the emergence of the “Arab Spring”, but their progress is uneven. In Egypt, much depends on the nature and speed of the transition, whose outcomes remain uncertain. Whether and how Arab transitional states embrace TJ – especially how they manage the fates of their deposed rulers and essential institutional reforms – will indicate whether they intend to break with the past and build public institutions that inspire civic trust.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

189. The media and freedom of expression in the Arab world

Author:
Jean-Paul Marthoz
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Online media, global TV and social networks played a significant role in the Arab Spring and will be important factors in determining the direction of these “revolutions”.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Science and Technology, Mass Media, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

190. Regional implications of the conflict in Syria: a view from Israel

Author:
Yossi Alpher
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Syria is geo-strategically, historically and politically the most central of Middle East countries, hence the over-riding importance of the conflict there. Yet any discussion of the regional implications of that conflict is necessarily highly speculative. Its points of departure are the instances of regional intervention and "overflow" from the situation already taking place. Turkey, with its open support for the armed Syrian opposition, is the leading candidate to establish "safe zones" or even "humanitarian corridors" that could conceivably lead to war. Ankara's growing rivalry with Iran is increasingly being acted out in Syria and is interacting with tensions between Sunni Muslims and Alawites/Shias not only in Syria, but in Lebanon and Iraq as well.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regime Change, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Syria

191. Mali : pour une action internationale résolue et concertée

Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En l'absence de décisions rapides, fortes et cohérentes aux niveaux régional (Communauté économique des Etats d'Afrique de l'Ouest, Cedeao), continental (Union Africaine, UA) et international (Nations unies) avant la fin de ce mois de septembre, la situation politique, sécuritaire, économique et sociale au Mali se détériorera. Tous les scénarios sont encore ouverts, y compris celui d'un nouveau coup d'Etat militaire et de troubles sociaux dans la capitale, aboutissant à une remise en cause des institutions de transition et à un chaos propice à la propagation de l'extrémisme religieux et de la violence terroriste au Mali et au- delà. Aucun des trois acteurs qui se partagent le pouvoir, le président intérimaire Di oncounda Traoré, le Premier ministre Cheick Modibo Diarra et le chef de l'exjunte, le capitaine Amadou Sanogo, ne dispose d'une légitimité populaire et d'une compétence suffisantes pour éviter une crise plus aiguë. Le pays a urgemment besoin de la mobilisation des meilleures compétences maliennes au-delà des clivages politiques et non d'une bataille de positionnement à la tête d'un Etat qui risque de s'écrouler.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, Politics, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa

192. Advancing the Rule of Law Agenda at the 67th General Assembly

Author:
Alberto Cutillo
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Since 2004, the rule of law has gained solid attention in the UN community. This year, on September 24th , there is an opportunity to mark a milestone in enhancing its role in the global effort to rebuild societies after conflict, support transition sand economic growth, and strengthen state institutions. For the first time, the United Nations General Assembly will devote its opening high – level event to the topic.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Economics, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
United Nations

193. Improving the Peace Process: The Influence of Ideas in Resolving Violent Conflict

Author:
Isaac Caverhill-Godkewitsch, Vanessa Humphries, Sean Jellow, and Nyiri Karakas
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
On June 27, 2012, Queen Elizabeth II shook the hand of Martin McGuinness, a former Irish Republican Army (IRA) commander, and symbolically solidified the long peace process that had sought to resolve the Troubles of Northern Ireland (Rayner, 2012). This historic gesture illustrates that even the most ideologically heated and intractable conflicts can be resolved. In the case of Northern Ireland, resolution was not possible without first acknowledging the important roles that notions of personal and national identity, self-determination and economic fairness played as defining stakes in the conflict. In contrast, the conflict between Israel and Palestine continues to produce turmoil in addition to a stream of failed negotiations. The failure to include values and beliefs, such as equality and basic human rights, in discussions has poisoned peace efforts, with no end to the bloodshed in sight.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Ireland

194. VOICES FROM THE FIELD: Protecting Children from Conflict and Strengthening Accountability of Armed Actors

Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
On September 19ththe UN Security Council called on member states to bring perpetrators of child rights violations to justice. To do so, Resolution 2068—adopted on the occasion of the annual Open Debate on Children and Armed Conflict—emphasized the importance of national judicial systems and, where applicable, international mechanisms.This call to end impunity was one of the key conclusions of a roundtable discussion held at the International Peace Institute and co-organized with Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflicton September 17th , just two days before the adoption of Resolution 2068.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, Human Rights, and War
Political Geography:
United Nations

195. On the Brink: Israeli settlements and their impact on Palestinians in the Jordan Valley

Author:
Lara El-Jazairi and Fionna Smyth
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The Jordan Valley, located in the eastern part of the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT), makes up 30 per cent of the West Bank (see Map 1 on page 7). Requisitions and expropriations of Palestinian land by the Israeli authorities continue to destroy the livelihoods of Palestinians living in the area and, unless action is taken, there are strong indications that the situation will only get worse. The Israeli government recently announced proposals and policies for the expansion of settlements, which, if implemented, will further threaten the living conditions and human rights of Palestinian communities in the Jordan Valley, undermining efforts to bring peace and prosperity to the OPT and Israel.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Agriculture, Development, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

196. Providing Space for Positive Youth Engagement

Author:
Tim Luccaro
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan's youth bulge, estimated at 21 million people under 25 years old, are a potential catalyst for shifting the current political and conflict dynamics in Afghanistan. Donor governments seeking positive change in Afghanistan can approach those under the age of 30 as the most likely source of such change. International financing and political capital may be strategically focused to develop youth as a positive political, economic and social force. It is important that the international community concentrate development funding over the next 10 years on youth-oriented programming— particularly as it relates to education, enterprise and agricultural development, and civic engagement. Young Afghan advocates need support from the international community to ensure that they have the requisite space and skills to meaningfully participate in future electoral processes and in local and national peace negotiations or reintegration programs.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Demographics, Development, Islam, Fragile/Failed State, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

197. L'Est du Congo: pourquoi la stabilisation a échoué

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Depuis la mutinerie de Bosco Ntaganda en avril 2012 et la formation du Mouvement du 23 mars (M23), les Kivus sont en proie à une nouvelle spirale de violence. Cette crise révèle que les problèmes d'aujourd'hui sont les problèmes d'hier car le cadre de résolution du conflit défini en 2008 n'a pas été mis en oeuvre. L'application de l'accord du 23 mars 2009 entre le gouvernement et le Conseil national pour la défense du peuple (CNDP) a été un jeu de dupes au cours duquel les autorités congolaises ont fait semblant d'intégrer politiquement le CNDP tandis que celui-ci a fait semblant d'intégrer l'armée congolaise. Faute de réforme de cette dernière, la pression militaire sur les groupes armés n'a eu qu'un impact éphémère et la reconstruction post-conflit n'a pas été accompagnée des réformes de gouvernance et du dialogue politique indispensables. Pour sortir de la gestion de crise et résoudre ce conflit qui dure depuis presque deux décennies dans les Kivus, les bailleurs doivent exercer des pressions sur Kigali et Kinshasa.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa

198. National R2P Focal Points Recommendations

Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
In 2005 at the United Nations World Summit, states unanimously committed to protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity by adopting the Responsibility to Protect (R2P). R2P affirms an individual state's primary responsibility to protect its population from these four crimes along with the collective international responsibility to take appropriate measures to help protect populations at risk.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and War
Political Geography:
United Nations

199. Elections in Libya

Author:
George Joffé
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The election of a new national assembly in Libya is good news in several respects after a decidedly difficult transition from the elation that accompanied the collapse of the Gaddafi regime last October to the realities of reconstructing the Libyan state. Perphaps the first piece of good news is the simple fact that it actually took place and did so in a relatively peaceful atmosphere. Secondly, the electoral process has been judged by outside observers to have been free and fair. And, finally, the outcome seems to have been a victory for moderation, rather than an outright win for Libya's Islamist movements - unlike the situation elsewhere.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arab Countries and North Africa

200. Turkey focus policy brief no:2 cyprus: is peace ever possible?

Author:
Baroness Hussein-Ece OBE
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Last week the All Party Parliamentary Group on Conflict Issues, held an event in Westminster. The meeting introduced a new concept where a network of Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot civil society organisations (CSOs) were calling for a shake-up of the Cyprus peace process. They made a strong case to include a more central and active role for civil society, woman and young people to work in tandem with negotiations between the leaders of the two communities.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey and Greece