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1211. Does Immigration Grow the Pie? Asymmetric Evidence from Germany

Author:
Eugenia Vella
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This Policy brief by Eugenia Vella, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, elected to the position of Assistant Professor, Athens University of Economics and Business; Research Fellow, ELIAMEP and Fundació MOVE provides empirical evidence suggesting that net migration flows can have substantial demand effects. Using monthly administrative data (2006-2019) for Germany, we show that migration stimulates job openings, wages, house prices, investment, consumption, net exports, and output. Unemployment falls for natives (job-creation effect), driving a decline in total unemployment, while rising for foreigners (job-competition effect). The geographic origin of migrants and the education level of residents matter crucially for the effects. Overall, the evidence implies that the policy debate should focus on redistributive strategies between natives and foreigners.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Employment, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

1212. How the EU Lost in Libya

Author:
Spyros Plakoudas
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
In 2019, the Libyan Crisis entered a new (and more violent and messy) phase in which outside powers (for example, Russia) intervened and impacted on developments on the ground (politically and militarily) in a profound way. These actors capitalized on the EU’s half-hearted (and thus ineffective) efforts to stabilize the country after Gaddafi’s fall and, by mid-2020, succeeded in effectively ousting the EU from its near abroad; they have dominated developments ever since.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Libya, and North Africa

1213. EU Strategic Priorities for a ‘New Multilateralism’: a follow-up to the European Commission-EEAS Communication

Author:
Spyros Blavoukos and George Pagoulatos
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
All major contemporary challenges, be they environmental, digital, public health or demographic, are cross-national and transnational in nature, necessitating multilateral, cross-border solutions. The EU envisages a world system collaborating more closely and tightly to combat global challenges old and new, like the Covid-19 pandemic and global recession. We follow up on the recent European Commission and EEAS Communication by proposing three key strategic priorities for the EU’s international engagement in the years to come. The EU should make it a priority to improve the performance of all international organizations (IOs), focusing on the most important ones and those in which it has the greatest leverage. The EU should seek to engage with running IOs, to reform IOs and to allocate more resources. The EU should address the weaponization of asymmetric interdependence by taking action at a global multilateral, cross-regional and intra-EU level. Developing EU strategic autonomy should focus on security, AI, digital technology, sustainability and cyber warfare, also by cooperating with like-minded allies like the US. Strengthening the global role of the euro is part of the strategy. The EU should economize resources by prioritizing key regions (Africa and MENA) and key IOs. Finally, promoting rules-based multilateralism at global level requires defending its benefits for European citizens at home.
Topic:
Communications, European Union, Multilateralism, COVID-19, Strategic Autonomy, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe

1214. The European Union and the geopolitics of Covid19 vaccines in the Western Balkans – Isabelle Ioannides

Author:
Isabelle Ioannides
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The race for the limited Covid19 vaccines has led to shifts in the geopolitics at play in the Western Balkans. Despite the impressions that China and Russia have the upper hand, however, the European Union (EU) has not been absent from the region. Given the difficulties to meet vaccine needs in its member states, the EU has concentrated on long-term consequences of the Covid19 pandemic in the Western Balkans. Meanwhile, Covid19 cases and deaths are increasing in the region, pointing to the need for more attention on short-term challenges. The handling of the pandemic in the Western Balkans has also reaffirmed long-standing shortcomings in the EU foreign policy. Given that the vaccination is on track in EU member states, the time has come for the EU to prioritise the delivery of Covid19 vaccines to the Western Balkans.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

1215. Making Connectivity Work: Transforming the Port of Thessaloniki into a Top Hub for Southeast Europe and Beyond

Author:
Panagiotis Paschalidis and Georgia Anastasiou
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The Thessaloniki Port has all the necessary elements to become a top regional, South-East European and international trade hub. The Thessaloniki Port Authority has adopted extrovert and proactive policies for strengthening cooperation with neighboring countries. The Thessaloniki Port’s impact can become even stronger if it is approached and designed on the basis of the notion of connectivity. Connectivity entails the upgrading of both technical and material aspects such as trade and commercial infrastructure (hard module) as well as the institutional and policy framework of cooperation such as agreements at the bilateral and multilateral level with neighboring countries (soft module). The drastic normalization of relations between Greece and North Macedonia can be viewed as an example of a comprehensive upgrading of connectivity with tangible benefits for the improvement of the Port’s regional and international role.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Infrastructure, Trade, and Port
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Thessaloniki

1216. Emigration and Fiscal Austerity in the Greek Depression

Author:
Eugenia Vella
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
What is the role of emigration in a deep recession when the government implements fiscal consolidation? Our macroeconomic model simulations show that fiscal austerity accounts for 1/3 of the output drop in the Greek Depression and more than 10% of migration outflows. In a no-emigration counterfactual scenario, the model predicts a smaller output fall by 20%. We also uncover a novel bi-directional link between emigration and austerity. On the one hand, labour income tax hikes induce prolonged migration outflows, while spending cuts exert a smaller effect. On the other hand, emigration increases the required tax hike and time to meet a given debt target due to endogenous revenue leakage. In terms of unemployment, temporary gains from emigration are reversed over time.
Topic:
Austerity, Fiscal Policy, Emigration, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

1217. Conference on the Future of Europe: Who is ready for a European Political Union?

Author:
Christos Mavrakos
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
A Conference on the Future of Europe was recently launched by the three EU political institutions. It aims to give Europeans a greater say in what the EU does and how it works for them. It is expected that at the end of this process, the political projects and priorities that will be at the heart of European political action in the coming decades will be sounded out. Little emphasis, on the other hand, is placed on the question of whether the institutions that are to breath life into these projects and priorities are not also in need of renewal. While it is very important to listen to the citizens of Europe, it is the thesis of the present paper that politicians in the member states as well as at the EU level should not simply hide behind the Conference and shirk their responsibilities. Rather, alongside the Conference, they should become creatively active by taking a stand on its scope, its procedure and its objectives. In terms of scope, it is argued that a Conference on the Future of Europe should focus not only on substantive issues, but also on the creation of a new, more democratic, efficient and mutually supportive institutional vehicle, such as a European Poltical Union (EPU), among the Member States and peoples of Europe who so desire. As regards the procedure for a Conference on the Future of Europe, given that the application of the revision procedure provided for in Article 48 TEU for the establishment of an EPU would severely hamper its chances of success, it is proposed to follow instead an alternative procedure which, moreover, is inspired by classical international law and allows those Member States which are in favor of the establishment of an EPU to go ahead without being prevented from doing so by Member States which reject this prospect. As for the objectives that a Conference on the Future of Europe should strive to achieve, it is argued that institutionally such a Conference should produce strong political institutions and effective decision-making procedures, and substantively provide an EPU with substantial means of action in a number of policy areas, including common foreign and defence policy. The paper concludes by asking – hopefully not rhetorically – which political forces in today’s Europe are willing to advocate such an EPU, emphasizing that European citizens, especially the younger generation, have a right to be informed.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, and Future
Political Geography:
Europe

1218. Immunity Passports in the context of COVID-19: Τechnological Solutions, Regulatory Considerations and Ethical Challenges

Author:
Mihalis Kritikos
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The European Parliament and the Council of Ministers of the EU recently reached an agreement on COVID-19 certificates designed to facilitate travel and help revive tourism in Europe. Although the certificate is expected to greatly simplify travel within the EU, its large-scale deployment is not without scientific, legal, and ethical challenges. The current analysis sheds light on the main tenets of the agreed EU framework and highlights the positions and initiatives of the main stakeholders. It also examines the major ethical and legal questions associated with the release of the certificate and makes a series of recommendations that could contribute to the efficient handling of some of these challenges so as to ensure a socially-responsible and effective use of this new EU instrument.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Regulation, Ethics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

1219. American assertiveness, UN irrelevance, Europe’s moment?

Author:
George Pagoulatos and Spyros Blavoukos
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The United Nations missed its opportunity to shine with the Covid-19 outbreak and was ignored over the recent Afghanistan crisis. Collective-action incapacity also happens to lie at the core of EU foreign policy weakness in the face of major recent geopolitical developments, such as Afghanistan and the AUKUS agreement. The emerging Cold War global atmospherics suggests an adverse environment for the EU to add substance to its oft-stated objective of strategic autonomy. However, intensifying great power polarization raises the need for a more assertive global Europe capable of effectively defending and sustaining a rules-based global multilateral system. The EU’s existence in the world as a trade and regulatory (super)power is best served by a well-functioning rules-based multilateral system, of which the EU is currently the most credible and ardent defender. In the escalating rivalry of the US with China there is no doubt where the European Union’s allegiance lies. Europe has been a steady pillar of the Euro-Atlantic alliance. A trade power and a global leader in combating extreme poverty and climate change, the European Union sees it in its best strategic interest to keep China engaged in the collective provision of global public goods ensuring sustainable development worldwide and preventively addressing the causes of massive migration waves. The EU should grasp the emerging opportunity and assert its own approach, aimed at a dual objective: first, to apply its moderating influence on the escalating Sino-American confrontation; and second, to breathe new energy into a visibly ageing global multilateral system and its frustrated ability to provide global public goods. Meeting this objective rests on two conditions: first, the EU should avoid introverted and short-sighted reactions to the Afghanistan and AUKUS challenges. Second, the EU should take bolder steps to enhance its own capacity to contribute to the public good of international security.
Topic:
United Nations, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Europe, and United States of America

1220. Citizens’ views on fake news and false narratives about the European Union – FACTS project

Author:
George Andreou
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
There is more unison than discrepancy in Greek citizens’ perceptions regarding the European Union. National identity continues to shape and frame the way most Greeks perceive the EU, interpret its activities, and evaluate its role. Participants have a positive image of the EU. However, there is a widespread feeling of disappointment towards an EU that “does not function on equal terms for all”. The general public lacks basic knowledge about the EU and what it stands for, about the respective roles of the Union and its member states, as well as about the ways EU and national officials engage in policy-making. Greeks are very vulnerable to disinformation about the EU, as relevant and reliable information is scarce in the domestic media. Many mobilized citizens feel that information from EU sources is not addressed to all, but only to those who have a strong personal and/or professional motivation. Non-mobilized citizens appear quite distant from information regarding the EU. Lack of solidarity between member states breeds apathy and a lack of interest in the EU among EU citizens. The most effective strategy against disinformation is improving communication between the EU and its citizens, and cultivating trust.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, Disinformation, Misinformation, and Fake News
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece