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82. Ousting Ennahda: Will Kais Saied's decisions help solve the crisis in Tunisia?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On the Tunisia’s 64th Republic Day -Sunday, July 25, 2021- the so-called 25 July Movement called for massive protests all over the country. Consequently, many responded and started protesting in Bardo Square, near the parliament, in the capital Tunis. The protests soon spread across other governorates, such as Sousse, the coastal governorate, Sfax (in the south), and El-Kef (in the northwest). In response, President Kais Saied announced, on July 26, 2021, the dismissal of Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and his cabinet, which consisted of 25 ministries. Saied decided to take charge of executive power until he chooses another politician to form a new government. He further suspended the current parliament and lifted the parliamentary immunity of all its members. Besides, he decided to rule by issuing decrees instead of the laws, which the parliament was supposed to pass. These decisions were announced after the emergency meeting that was chaired by president Saied, and attended by military leaders and security officials on the day the protests and rallies broke out. The protesters demanded reforming the economy, combatting corruption and terrorism, dismissing the Mechichi cabinet, and dissolving the parliament.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Reform, Crisis Management, and Ennahda Party
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
83. Trade and trust: the role of trade in de facto state conflict transformation
- Author:
- Tamta Gelashvili, Helge Blakkisrud, and Nino Kemoklidze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- De facto states – unrecognized secessionist entities that eke out a living on the margins of the international system – are often heavily dependent on external patron states for economic aid and investment. When the parent state – the state that the de facto state seeks to break away from – responds to the secessionist attempt by imposing sanctions or economic blockades, this further exacerbates such dependency. Moreover, due to their lack of international recognition, de facto states often have limited opportunities to engage with the outside world beyond the patron and the parent state. However, closer examination of one such de facto state, Abkhazia, reveals that de facto states can enjoy some bounded independent economic agency. Abkhazia’s maneuvering between Russia as “patron,” Georgia as “parent state,” and the wider international community (here exemplified by the EU) in the sphere of trade and economic interaction has important implications for de-facto state conflict transformation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, Emerging States, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
84. ‘A careful foot can step anywhere’: The UAE and China in the Horn of Africa: Implications for EU engagement
- Author:
- Jos Meester and Guido Lanfranchi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Over the last decade, the UAE and China have vastly expanded their economic, political and military footprint in the Horn of Africa, and their actions now have the potential to shape developments in the region. Room for cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Beijing exists on issues such as maritime security, regional stability, and economic development. Moreover, the two countries’ interaction could lead to improvements in the Horn’s underdeveloped infrastructure by triggering a race to investment. Yet, development and stability in the region might suffer if the strategic interests of external players take precedence over local ones, or if local elites (mis)use external support for narrow domestic political calculations. The EU and its member states have high stakes in the Horn’s stability. To optimise their engagement, European policymakers should be aware of the implications of the Emirati and Chinese presence, and they should strive to improve cooperation among the wide range of external players active in the Horn.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, Politics, Military Affairs, Economic Development, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Asia, and Horn of Africa
85. Biden-Erdogan meeting: cautious rapprochement amid still thorny disputes
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As long as Turkey pursues its regional ambitions, any understandings with the US and the West will necessarily have a hard ceiling. However, Ankara seems to be pursuing a more conciliatory policy in the region and in its relations with the West for both economic and strategic reasons.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Rapprochement, Strategic Interests, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
86. Building Infrastructure in Real Time: Avoiding Regulatory Paralysis
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The physical infrastructure base of the US economy, once an advantage in global competition, has become a liability. This problem has multiple causes, several of which CED has addressed in recent policy statements, and our nation’s elected policymakers are now taking up the need for additional funding. But the nation needs not only adequate funding but also a more-efficient regulatory process for our infrastructure investment—choosing the right projects, with the minimum delay, and executing them at the least possible cost. Regulatory paralysis is one of the causes of our infrastructure shortfall. It needs attention if we are going to spend our tax dollars on infrastructure wisely and efficiently so that the US economy remains globally competitive. Streamlining regulatory procedures, promoting competition, and cutting red tape across federal, state, and local governments are key to increasing investment, decreasing cost, and maximizing efficiency. Business as usual will not suffice. It takes too long and costs too much to deliver infrastructure projects, preventing us from achieving the advancements and improvements that a future-focused, competitive economy requires. CED has consistently advocated “smart regulation,” subjecting new regulations to rigorous cost-benefit analysis and reviewing existing regulations for continuing cost effectiveness to enhance efficiency and achieve quicker execution, greater benefits, and lower costs. With long delays between project conception and execution, and often multiple layers of jurisdiction and review, a smart regulation approach could ensure that the rules governing review and permitting of projects address all important concerns and ensure that net benefits are maximized over time at all levels of government on a comprehensive and timely basis.
- Topic:
- Economics, Infrastructure, Governance, Regulation, Business, Economic Policy, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
87. Annual Social Security and Medicare Trustees Report Reflects Worsening Economic Environment
- Author:
- Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds are required by law to produce an annual report on April 1 of each year. It is by no means a shock that the report is late in any year; it happens often. This year, however, there is probably more of a justification that the report was released only yesterday, five months late. The economic and health care environments are perhaps as chaotic and uncertain as they have been in living memory.
- Topic:
- Economics, Health Care Policy, and Social Security
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
88. The myths and realities of China's economic coercion
- Author:
- Luke Patey
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Despite the significance of the world’s second largest economy increasingly using its trade and connectivity as a weapon to advance its foreignand security-policy aims, separating the myths from the realities of Chinese coercion is crucial in shaping appropriate policy responses and deterring China and others from such assertive behaviour.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Coercion
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and Denmark
89. Energy price hikes: which European solutions?
- Author:
- Ramona Bloj
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- As energy prices rise around the world, against the backdrop of the post-Covid economic recovery, the 27 EU leaders discussed what Europe could do to ease the pressure on consumers at the European Council on 21-22 October. The increase in prices is due to a particular international context and is affecting all countries: China is facing electricity shortages in many provinces due to insufficient coal supply, and in the United States the price of natural gas has risen by more than 150% since the beginning of the year. However, this increase raises questions about Europe's energy strategy and its impact on climate objectives, just a few days before the opening of COP26 in Glasgow.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
90. Do Evolving Digital Trade Rules Create an Uneven Playing Field? Understanding Global Perspectives
- Author:
- Michael Pisa and Ugonma Nwankwo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This brief is based on a roundtable hosted by CGD as part of the Governing Data for Development project, which explores how governments can use data to support innovation, development, and inclusive growth while protecting citizens and communities against harm.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Digital Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
91. Are Current Models of Data Protection Fit for Purpose? Understanding the Consequences for Economic Development
- Author:
- Michael Pisa and Ugonma Nwankwo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- This brief is based on a roundtable hosted by CGD as part of the Governing Data for Development project, which explores how governments can use data to support innovation, development, and inclusive growth while protecting citizens and communities against harm.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Privacy, and Models
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
92. Promoting Women’s Economic Empowerment in the COVID-19 Context
- Author:
- Megan O'Donnell, Mayra Buvinic, Charles Kenny, Shelby Bourgault, and George Yang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- As donor institutions and governments seek to provide relief and support recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and global recession, CGD’s COVID-19 Gender and Development Initiative aims to ensure that their policy and investment decisions equitably benefit women and girls. We seek to support decision-makers in understanding the gendered impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic; assess health, economic, and social policy response measures with a gender lens; and propose evidence-based solutions for an inclusive recovery. Recognizing that the dialogue to date has largely emphasized challenges facing women and girls in high-income settings, our analysis centers on women and girls in low- and middle-income countries. In this policy brief, we summarize the findings of a CGD working paper, Promoting Women’s Economic Empowerment in the COVID-19 Context. We explore the impacts of the crisis on women’s economic opportunities and outcomes, document the extent to which governments and donors are taking action to respond to these impacts, and make recommendations for how decision-makers can elevate women’s economic empowerment as a priority in response and recovery efforts. Specifically, we examine the impact of the COVID-19 global recession on women’s work and employment in low- and middle-income countries, including entrepreneurship, wage and salaried work, work in subsistence and commercial agriculture, and unpaid housework and care work.
- Topic:
- Economics, Women, Inequality, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
93. Biden and Belarus: A strategy for the new administration
- Author:
- Anders Åslund, Melinda Haring, John Herbst, and Alexander Vershbow
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- United States President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has an historic opportunity to bring Europe together and reverse the tide of dictatorship by building an international coalition to support democracy in Belarus. In 2020, Belarusians unexpectedly called Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s legitimacy into question in the country’s August presidential election. Lukashenka brazenly rigged the results, claiming that he took 80 percent of the vote, but neither the United States nor the European Union (EU) recognizes his victory. A months-long protest movement has coalesced that demands new elections under the supervision of the international community. Recent years have seen no better chance for US leadership to facilitate lasting positive change in Europe than the crisis in Belarus. But how to secure democratic change in Belarus is not simple given internal resistance and Moscow’s determination to prevent another “color revolution.” Lukashenka is likely finished, unable to restore any authority or legitimacy. But he is seeking to hang on despite Moscow’s efforts to arrange a pliable replacement who would preserve Minsk’s pro-Russian orientation. Managing Moscow’s efforts to prevent an aroused citizenry from choosing their own leader is no easy task. Russia remains the key geopolitical player in Belarus, often plays the long game, and may be willing to countenance military options that the United States cannot. Perhaps the key fact is that Belarusians have made it amply clear that they want accountable leaders that they can choose and dismiss for themselves. More than thirty thousand peaceful protesters have been detained since August, more than three hundred and fifty police officers have defected, and ordinary Belarusians are no longer afraid to voice their opposition to the regime. Kremlin support for the ongoing repression risks turning the Belarusian people—historically friendly toward Russia—in a pro-European direction. These changes in Belarus are something that Moscow cannot ignore, and the United States and its allies must nourish and strengthen them in consistent ways that avoid and deter a Kremlin overreaction. Biden, with his long experience promoting US values and interests and his determination to strengthen transatlantic relations, is ideally situated to promote clear support for the people of Belarus that does not directly challenge Moscow’s security interests.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, Sanctions, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Belarus, and United States of America
94. Food for Thought: Investing in a sustainable food system
- Author:
- Marta Piazza
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The focus on profit maximization at the expense of workers, farmers, and women have helped companies reap huge profit margins in the short-term, but as COVID-19 has revealed, it has come at the cost of rights violations. Such costs are no longer considered an acceptable business risk. As human rights gains prominence in investor-company engagement, this briefing note provides information to investors about the risks of ignoring human rights impacts, evidence about the rights violations that persist in the food sector despite company action and charts a way for investors to build a resilient food system given their outsized influence.
- Topic:
- Economics, Business, Profit, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
95. Xi Jinping’s Evergrande Dilemma
- Author:
- John Lee
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Evergrande is one of the top-two real estate developers in a still highly fragmented Chinese sector. Its main strategy is to achieve ever-increasing scale (rather than profitability) in order to move ahead of and crowd out commercial competitors. It has also amassed the largest land reserves of all Chinese developers, which were financed through massive borrowings. By 2018, Evergrande held 822 pieces of undeveloped land in 228 cities, with a planned gross floor area of 3.28 billion square feet of new homes—the equivalent of 10 percent of Germany’s entire housing stock. It paid $75 billion just for this undeveloped land. Although Evergrande’s market share is only around 4 percent, its borrowings stand out. Its current balance sheet liabilities amount to an estimated 2 percent of China’s gross domestic product (GDP), while its off-balance-sheet liabilities could be another 1 percent of China’s GDP. This makes Evergrande the most indebted property developer in the world. Burdened by this debt, struggling to meet its debt interest and repayment obligations, and viable only if property asset values and sales continue to increase, Evergrande faces possible financial collapse—an event bound to have flow-on effects for the Chinese economy. However, the unusually high global interest in Evergrande has arisen because its woes are increasingly seen as symptomatic of those faced by the broader Chinese economy, which is struggling with enormous levels of indebtedness and overreliance on the real estate sector. Debt held by nonfinancial institutions in China increased from about 115 percent of GDP in 2010 to around 160 percent of GDP currently. This is the most rapid and largest increase in a 10-year period for any major economy and makes the level of debt held by Chinese nonfinancial institutions one of the highest in the world. The real estate sector accounts for around 15 percent of GDP, while property services account for another 14 percent—the highest in any developing economy. The share of the real estate sector as a proportion of GDP was only about 4 percent in 1997 and 9 percent in 2008. Since 2008, up to a third of all domestic fixed investment has gone into real estate, and up to half of total national debt is linked to the real estate sector.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Debt, Economics, Markets, and Business
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
96. Transatlantic Paralysis: The US-EU Trade Policy Stalemate and the European Union’s Democratic Deficit
- Author:
- Thomas J. Duesterberg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- What is often labeled the democratic deficit in governance of the European Union (EU) is not a a flaw or bug in its architecture, it is a design feature. From its earliest days in the Second World War’s chaotic aftermath, European integration “was essentially an elite project, pursued at a distance from the daily concerns of the national populations in Western Europe.” Also formed as a response to the economic disintegration following the Depression and World War Two, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was similarly removed from national or populist politics. It too was an elite, top-down initiative designed to embed nations in a system of international rules largely articulated by technical experts, enforced by a form of international courts, and far removed from national and populist politics. Many of the intellectual proponents of both supranational institutions, from the Austrian School of economics, the ordoliberals emerging in early-20th century Germany, to the London School of Economics indeed shared a distrust of American-style democracy, let alone the various parliamentary democracies whose failure led to the disasters of the 1930s and 1940s. Over the last fifty years, the institutions put in place after World War II have been perfected and have, to a certain extent, ossified. Many of the difficulties in achieving greater US-EU economic coordination in the 21st century have their origins in the institutional design and the subsequent early implementation of early European Community rules during the post-war period. A brief overview of the history of European integration, and the political thinking behind it, helps explain the current paralysis in contemporary transatlantic cooperation, including in a joint approach to the challenge of Chinese mercantilism and its growing international reach.
- Topic:
- Economics, Governance, Democracy, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, and United States of America
97. Winning the Geo-Tech Battle and Building the Quad Alliance in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Eric B. Brown, John Lee, and Thomas J. Duesterberg
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Under Xi Jinping, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has established as its paramount geopolitical objective the replacement of the free and open, rules-based order in Asia with an alternative world order, one that is to be dominated by the interests and values of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This decision presents a danger to the entire world, not just to any one state or group of states. For, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the March 2021 US-PRC meeting in Alaska, the alternative to a rules-based order “is a world in which might makes right and winners take all, and that would be a far more violent and unstable world for all of us.” In furtherance of its objectives, the PRC is in the midst of a large military build-up, but there is much more. For today’s CCP, political power grows not only from the “barrel of the gun,” as Mao Zedong once put it, but also from cutting-edge technologies. Thus, while Beijing pours billions into artificial intelligence and surveillance tech to impose its new “digital totalitarianism” inside the PRC, from Hong Kong to Xinjiang, it is also using its growing technological prowess to press its larger geopolitical agenda in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. It is weaponizing technology and connectivity, along with trade, finance, and other policy instruments to try to rule the key technologies and industries of the future, as well as to improve its strategic positioning and acquire political power over other countries—for instance, through its bid to dominate other nations’ most sensitive data networks, or via the export of its suite of “social stability” technologies, i.e., the “techno-tyrant’s toolkit.” In all this, the CCP’s intent is to entrench its power and Leninist norms and practices to the extent it can do so beyond the PRC’s borders, and to make other nations, or at the least their ruling elites, beholden to it. So in addition to the PRC’s militarily destabilizing activities in the West Pacific and incursions into India’s Himalayas, there is also a “geo-technological front.” If Xi’s CCP succeeds at enmeshing other countries in its expanding “PRC sphere of technological influence,” it could unlock and be able to exploit decisive military, economic, diplomatic, and ideological advantages.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Economics, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, East Asia, and Asia-Pacific
98. The Chinese Communist Party’s Economic Challenge to the Free World
- Author:
- Miles M. Yu
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- The Chinese economy and the philosophical roots of China’s system have greater implications for the United States economy than many assume. The one critical fact to understand about the People’s Republic of China is that it is a communist dictatorship ruled by a Marxist-Leninist party. The Party is dedicated to maintaining and strengthening its monopoly on all powers in the world’s most populous country and to mounting the most serious challenge to the free world since the Cold War. This policy memo will examine the Chinese economy’s distinct traits, how it operates, and why it thrives under a monopolistic government that exploits and challenges the global free market system, along with possible policy recommendations for the United States and its allies. Unlike most other communist countries, China has been afforded the benefits of a global free-market system and enjoys largely open access to international trade, capital markets, and advanced technologies. The paradox of a communist nation fully participating in a largely capitalist system has enriched and strengthened the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), to the point where Beijing poses a mortal threat to the United States and to the international free market economic system that has enabled the rise of the communist state. The West played a role in creating the current state of play. But too many conversations in the United States focus only on our own strategic thinking. In his historic speech at the Richard Nixon Library in July 2020, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo aptly described the situation and how we got here: “Our policies—and those of other free nations—resurrected China’s failing economy, only to see Beijing bite the international hands that were feeding it.” As President Richard Nixon admitted in his later years, his initiative to open up China in 1972 might have created a Frankenstein.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Communism, Economics, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
99. Building a Strong and Independent Iraq: Policy Guidance for the Biden Administration
- Author:
- Abram N. Shulsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Formulating US policy toward Iraq can be a fraught matter, given all the debate and disagreement concerning the actions that brought us to the current situation. However, our policy must be formulated in light of it, regardless of views about our past actions. Policy formulation should begin with the realization that Iran has gained a predominant political and military influence in Iraq. Despite efforts of past PM Adel Abdul Mahdi and current PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, many of the militias comprising the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) still answer to Iran, not the Iraqi government. Iran exerts widespread influence throughout the political class. Economically, Iraq remains dependent on Iran for energy;1 religious tourism from Iran to the holy sites in Karbala and Najaf is an important source of revenue; and Iran has flooded markets with cheap food and consumer goods. Although Iraqi oil production has rebounded, the economy remains relatively moribund and the level of basic public services is poor. (That Iraq flares off its natural gas at the same time it is importing it from Iran to produce electricity2 highlights the economic disfunction.) Popular discontent boiled over in 2019, leading to widespread protests. The protests took on an anti-Iranian aspect, and Iran-aligned PMF units attacked the protestors.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Economics, Government, Politics, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America
100. The Proliferation Of Informal Housing In Major Cities In Cameroon: Evidence, Drivers And The Way Forward
- Author:
- Dr. Louis-Marie Kakdeu and Egoh Aziz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- The proliferation of informal settlements in Cameroon is problematic. A range of factors explain why this is becoming recurrent. Some of these factors include a deficit of housing supply, unaffordability issues, critical market factors, weak legal and institutional systems, and the socio-economic conditions of the country. This article focuses on the roots of Cameroon’s informal housing crisis. Reviewing the literature on the topic, we provide the context of the problem in Cameroon by pointing out some evidence and magnitude of the issue and probe into some historical facts on housing. We then explore some of the negative conduits to the housing problem and propose key recommendations to the government that can help improve the situation. We used the content analysis method in collecting data.
- Topic:
- Economics, Governance, Regulation, Housing, and Real Estate
- Political Geography:
- Cameroon