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301. Sustain and prosper: How Europeans can support Ukraine

Author:
Marie Dumoulin, Lykke Friis, Gustav Gressel, and Leo Litra
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The EU has already provided unprecedented support to Ukraine as it fights its existential war against Russia. But this war will not end any time soon. The EU and member states urgently need to ramp up and accelerate their military assistance for the long war and make stronger commitments to Ukraine’s long-term security. This will require them to develop their military-industrial capabilities. In addition, they should develop bilateral security arrangements with Ukraine and work towards bringing the country into NATO once the war is over. Ukraine’s EU accession, however, will ultimately be more transformative for the country. The EU therefore needs to ensure it is truly fit for enlargement to up to 36 states and take concrete steps towards making Ukraine a member state. The EU should view this support for Ukraine as an opportunity to enhance its military production facilities, raise its geopolitical profile, secure its neighbourhood, and stabilise the contour and modus operandi of a larger European Union.
Topic:
Security, NATO, European Union, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

302. Strategic interdependence: Europe’s new approach in a world of middle powers

Author:
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Julien Barnes-Dacey, Susi Dennison, Marie Dumoulin, and Frédéric Grare
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The world is changing – and European governments are struggling to decide how to position themselves within it. Middle powers outside Europe are preparing for a fragmented, not a bipolar world, and approaching the emerging order with some confidence. The EU can learn a great deal from their strategies. The EU has a myriad of interdependencies with other powers and will never be totally self-sufficient. To protect its interests and values, it needs a foreign policy strategy that acknowledges this: strategic interdependence. The EU should anchor this approach in an understanding of where it needs partnerships – and the potential power it wields within them. It should prepare for political coexistence and competition, privilege de-risking over decoupling, and invest in key relationships rather than in defending the old order.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Partnerships, Multipolarity, and Interdependence
Political Geography:
Europe

303. Ends of the earth: How EU climate action can weather the coming election storm

Author:
Susi Dennison and Mats Engström
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The EU is facing a make-or-break moment in terms of whether it is willing to pay the costs – both financial and political – of moving forward with decarbonisation at the speed and according to the model it has set out in the European Green Deal. Ahead of the European Parliament elections and several national elections in 2024, European policymakers need to convince voters that keeping the green transition on course is in their interests at a time when many are concerned about the rising cost of living. Policymakers should focus on energy sovereignty; how the green industrial transformation can help their country’s economic competitiveness; and the role that EU-level financial support can play in a just transition, alongside the risks of climate change, as persuasive reasons to advance the European Green Deal. These arguments resonate to different degrees in different capitals. Significant green funding in the next EU budget and a stronger Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform would help maintain the consensus on climate action. The EU stands to benefit from being a global green leader, but it needs to rapidly adapt its policy instruments to the changed geopolitical circumstances.
Topic:
Climate Change, Elections, European Union, and Green Deal
Political Geography:
Europe

304. From coal to consensus: Poland’s energy transition and its European future

Author:
Szymon Kardas
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Poland’s economy, including its energy sector, is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels, including coal. In recent years Poland has significantly developed its renewable energy potential, reduced carbon dioxide emissions, and rolled out energy efficiency measures. Yet challenges remain, attributable to the government’s failure to devise a coherent national energy strategy and its insistence on picking fights with the EU over “sovereignty”; together, these weaken Poland’s influence over European energy policy. Poland has the potential to carry out an ambitious energy transition, considering its renewable energy potential, plans for nuclear power, and public support for change. Whatever the results of the 2023 parliamentary election, the government should aim to forge a cross-party consensus in favour of the energy transition and give it a strategic weight comparable to Poland’s accession to the EU and NATO.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Renewable Energy, Coal, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

305. House in disorder: How Europeans can help Palestinians fix their political system

Author:
Hugh Lovatt
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Thirty years after the Oslo accords, Israel’s annexation of Palestinian territory is entrenching open-ended conflict and what is increasingly recognised as apartheid. A third intifada is simmering in the West Bank amid expanding Israeli military raids, growing settler violence, and the resurgence of Palestinian armed groups. Conflict in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is further destabilising Gaza and southern Lebanon, risking a serious interlocking regional crisis. A weak and unpopular Palestinian Authority, combined with deepening rivalries among Palestinian leaders and factions, are increasing Palestinian political dysfunction, and exacerbating instability. Confronting Israel’s international law violations remains key. But Europeans can help mitigate negative dynamics by leveraging their funding relationship with the PA to revive Palestinian institutions and reverse the PA’s authoritarian slide. The EU should work with Gulf monarchies to reconfigure post-Abraham accords diplomacy in support of Palestinian rights and national representation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, Institutions, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

306. The battle for the Indian Ocean: How the EU and India can strengthen maritime security

Author:
Frédéric Grare and Manisha Reuter
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Over the last decade, China has gradually expanded its presence in the Indian Ocean, combining its military modernisation and cooperation with partners with active diplomacy towards the island and coastal states of the region. China’s presence and capabilities threaten the freedom and influence of other actors in the area, including India and the EU. Europe’s key maritime trade routes to Asia run through the Indian Ocean, making the security of the region and freedom of navigation crucial for European interests. Many of the island and coastal states in the Indian Ocean have limited economic resources to exercise effective control at sea and are therefore dependent on extra-regional powers. As part of their approach to respond to China’s growing assertiveness in the region, the EU and India should jointly establish a regional maritime capacity building programme for island and coastal states in the Indian Ocean.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Maritime, Trade, Modernization, and Military
Political Geography:
China, Europe, India, and Indian Ocean

307. Power couple: How Europe and Algeria can move beyond energy cooperation

Author:
Zine Labidine Ghebouli
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Algeria’s president Abdelmadjid Tebboune is seeking to reinvigorate the country’s role as a regional power, deal with instability in its neighbourhood, and boost its economy ahead of the presidential election in 2024. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has bolstered Algeria’s standing as a key energy provider for Europe while complicating its security relationship with Russia, pushing Algiers to look for new security partners. Europe shares Algeria’s concerns about instability in the region, where Russian influence is growing, and security and economic problems loom large. The range of overlapping interests between Europe and Algeria form the basis for a broad partnership that extends beyond energy cooperation to economic partnerships and foreign policy coordination. Such a partnership would not only help Europe meet its energy needs, it would also improve regional prosperity, weaken Russia’s foreign influence, and make both parties more effective at stabilising the southern neighbourhood.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Algeria, and North Africa

308. Democratic defence: How Italy can lead the fight against Russian disinformation

Author:
Gabriele Carrer, Teresa Coratella, and Silvia Samorè
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
New research for ECFR suggests pro-Russia and pro-China narratives are present in online and traditional forms of discourse in Italy. It finds that forms of anomalous activity spiked just ahead of the country’s 2022 general election. Despite the shock to Italian foreign policy caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine, economic ties between the countries remain. Moreover, the political environment in Italy remains conducive to Russian influence, with the leaders of four of the five largest parties in parliament prone to echoing talking points favourable to Moscow or advocating for “peace” while suggesting the withdrawal of military support to Ukraine. Italy has been slow to put in place the structures needed to combat foreign influence. The new governing coalition appeared to place little value on tackling the problem, but it has now started to build on the more considerable progress made under former prime minister Mario Draghi. Italy should seize opportunities to strengthen the battle against disinformation, such as: encouraging the next European Commission to incorporate this task into its mandate; and placing the topic in Rome’s forthcoming G7 presidency programme.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democracy, Disinformation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy

309. Renewable relations: A strategic approach to European energy cooperation with the Gulf states

Author:
Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia’s war on Ukraine prompted a frenzy of energy deals between EU member states and countries in the Middle East and North Africa, but their implementation is slow. The EU needs a new approach to energy cooperation with states in the Middle East and North Africa that serves both its energy security imperative and its climate goals. The Gulf monarchies represent a good test case for such an approach, due to their green ambitions, abundant resources, and significance to the fight against climate change. Political and ideological differences are currently the greatest obstacle to long-term, strategic energy cooperation between the regions. But this year’s COP28 in Dubai is an opportunity for both sides to focus on practical ways to accelerate the green transition. Europeans should emphasise four promising areas of energy cooperation with the GCC states: energy efficiency and electrification, renewable energy, and the circular carbon economy.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Decarbonization, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

310. Keeping America close, Russia down, and China far away: How Europeans navigate a competitive world

Author:
Jana Puglierin and Pawel Zerka
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia’s war on Ukraine has shown European citizens that they live in a world of non-cooperation. But their cooperative foreign policy instincts are only slowly adapting to this new reality. Europeans want to remain neutral in a potential US-China conflict and are reluctant to de-risk from China – even if they recognise the dangers of its economic presence in Europe. However, if China decided to deliver weapons to Russia, that would be a red line for much of the European public. Europeans remain united on their current approach to Russia – though they disagree about Europe’s future Russia policy. They have embraced Europe’s closer relationship with the US, but they want to rely less on American security guarantees. European leaders have an opportunity to build public consensus around Europe’s approach to China, the US, and Russia. But they need to understand what motivates the public and communicate clearly about the future.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

311. Brace yourself: How the 2024 US presidential election could affect Europe

Author:
Célia Belin, Majda Ruge, and Jeremy Shapiro
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
A profound debate is taking place among US political parties about America’s future foreign policy orientation. Democrats and Republicans are aligned on some issues, such as the strategic rivalry with China, protecting domestic manufacturing, and access to strategic technologies. But the parties also disagree on subjects of crucial importance to Europeans such as climate action, the war in Ukraine, and the United States’ relationship with its allies. Within both the Democratic and Republican parties, three tribes exert influence over party foreign policy and will shape the stance of future administrations. On America’s global posture and military presence abroad, the parties are split between those who believe in limited international US engagement, others who argue for prioritising the Indo-Pacific, and advocates of continued US global leadership or even primacy. Europeans must not simply hope they can accommodate potentially dramatic shifts in US policy in the coming years, but should instead take steps now to enhance and protect their own position in the world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

312. From shock and awe to stability and flaws: Iraq’s post-invasion journey

Author:
Hamzeh Hadad
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
In the 20 years since the US-led invasion, Iraq’s political order and elite have proven surprisingly resilient in the face of numerous challenges, including terrorism, civil war, threats of secession, and mass protests. The informal consociational system, party politics, patronage networks, and competing paramilitaries are enduring features of Iraqi governance that have maintained stability even as they present many long-term problems. Despite the system’s resilience, Iraq remains deeply challenged by corruption, a lack of economic diversity and development, climate vulnerability, and some persistent security deficits. Europeans should acknowledge the realities of Iraqi governance and work within them to achieve shared European-Iraqi interests rather than seeking to impose their own ideals or solutions. Europeans could, for example, help Iraqis to manage their youth bulge problem, digitise the economy, and prepare for and adapt to climate change.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political stability, Iraq War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, and Middle East

313. Feeling the chill: Navigating Arctic governance amid Russia’s war on Ukraine

Author:
Joanna Hosa
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia’s war on Ukraine has highlighted the strategic importance of the Arctic and upended structures of cooperation between the western Arctic states and Russia, including the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council includes six organisations of indigenous peoples alongside the eight Arctic states, providing a platform for inclusive governance and the recognition and representation of the Arctic’s indigenous population. The participation of indigenous peoples in Arctic governance is key to upholding Europe’s values-based foreign policy and effective governance in the region, particularly against the backdrop of Russia’s values war with the West. The war has divided the Arctic into two camps – one including the Western Arctic states and the other comprising the Russian Arctic – with both sides exploring alternative avenues for cooperation. In this uncertain context, European governments need to preserve indigenous peoples’ participation in existing and emerging forums of cooperation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Arctic

314. The power of control: How the EU can shape the new era of strategic export restrictions

Author:
Tobias Gehrke and Julian Ringhof
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Technology is increasingly a battleground in the strategic competition between the US and China. Western technology contributes to China’s military modernisation as well as the development of Russian weapon systems. The US is restricting trade in key technologies with China and pushing EU member states to follow its lead. To better defend its interests, the EU needs to develop clearer policies on China and security, including pursuing the ‘de-risking’ of its relations with Beijing. The EU must develop a new strategic technology doctrine and upgrade its export control policy. This more coherent stance will enable the EU both to act where necessary but also to defend itself and its member states from future pressure from China – and the US.
Topic:
Security, International Trade and Finance, European Union, and Exports
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and United States of America

315. Culture clash: Russia, Ukraine, and the fight for the European public

Author:
Pawel Zerka
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia’s war on Ukraine is a test of Europe’s values of openness, freedom, solidarity, and individual responsibility. According to ECFR’s research, European sentiment is strong in the EU today; the public holds positive attitudes towards the EU and Europe; and most governments are dedicated to European cooperation. European citizens and governments have shown unprecedented support for Ukraine, but European leaders face various dilemmas about how to handle Russian culture, disinformation, and people in the context of the war – and their responses to these challenges have consequences for European sentiment. Their approach can either reassert European values, helping to sustain European unity and support for Ukraine. Or it can undermine these values, presenting the EU as weak and hypocritical, and eroding Europeans’ confidence in the EU and solidarity with Ukraine. Rather than follow their protective instincts, European governments should display confidence in liberalism and in the European civil society which, over the past year, has demonstrated its resilience.
Topic:
Culture, Public Opinion, Disinformation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

316. Decarbonisation nations: How EU climate diplomacy can save the world

Author:
Susi Dennison and Mats Engström
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The EU’s decision to quickly decouple from Russian energy in response to the war in Ukraine and the US Inflation Reduction Act have shifted the dynamics around how the EU engages on climate action in its external relations. The EU and its member states need a new approach to climate diplomacy to respond to this reality. They should frame this approach around an understanding that decarbonisation is central to their economic security. In its relations with Africa, the EU should ensure that all relevant policy tools – including trade, industrial development, and energy deals – reflect the fact that economic security through decarbonisation brings mutual benefits. The EU needs to strengthen its climate diplomacy by rapidly putting together an offer for the global south that includes financing and innovation cooperation to counter negative reactions to its current regulation- and carbon pricing-led approach. The new European Commission and European Parliament from 2024 provide an opportunity to build the structures for greater coordination of investments and planning through Brussels. The EU will also need to increase its capacity and resources if it is to remain a global leader on climate action.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, European Union, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Europe

317. Nuclear energy and proliferation in Turkey’s Asian Politics

Author:
Eliza Gheorghe
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The share of nuclear power in Asia’s electricity generating capacity has grown significantly over the last two decades. China is one of the dominant players in Asia, developing a robust nuclear power program. In the Middle East, Iran and the United Arab Emirates have introduced nuclear power into the region, with Turkey planning to follow in their footsteps in 2023. The adoption of nuclear power spurs concerns about the proliferation of nuclear weapons and nuclear latency. Some countries use their civilian nuclear programs to develop a robust infrastructure that allows them to acquire nuclear weapons in a relatively short period of time. Such dynamics are likely to have a destabilizing effect on international affairs in the Middle East and Asia. The current international situation makes it unlikely that the nuclear non-proliferation regime will become stronger in the near future. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the need for a new generation of negative security assurances and collective defense that protects countries from nuclear blackmail.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Politics, Electricity, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

318. Is Realism Policy Relevant? Evidence from Ukraine and Taiwan

Author:
Nikolaos Lampas
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Criticism of realism is based on a largely superficial understanding of the paradigm. Critics treat realism as a one-dimensional approach. Realism is a paradigm that encompasses different and sometimes mutually contradictory approaches. Realist scholars strongly opposed U.S. military interventions, such as Iraq, which have proved disastrous. Offensive realism’s rationale is unconvincing in the case of Ukraine. However, the international community’s response falls well within the realist paradigm. Deterrence remains a vital policy recommendation of realism, as evidenced by the U.S. response to the Taiwan debacle.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, and Realism
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Taiwan, and Asia

319. “Scent of a woman”: Women as a crucial factor in the upcoming Turkish elections

Author:
Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The female vote is one of the decisive factors in the 14 May elections. The government coalition now includes parties with highly problematic views on women and women’s rights. Housewives comprise the AKP’s female stronghold, but the tide is changing. Women in Turkey are unhappy, anxious and pessimistic.
Topic:
Elections, Women, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and AKP
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

320. “The Youth of a Nation are the trustees of posterity ” How younger generations can shape Turkey through the upcoming Turkish elections

Author:
Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Half of the 64.1 million voters will be young people born after 1997. Young generations are de facto secularized and want change. Youth support for the AKP is dwindling steadily, while its support of the continue to rise. Young people in Turkey are navigating hybrid new identities.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Youth
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

321. Autocratization vs. democratization: The new framework for understanding political competition in Turkey in view of the elections and beyond

Author:
Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The traditional “Kemalist vs. Islamist” divide is being replaced by authoritarianism vs. democratization. The antagonism between authoritarian statism and democratization will decide the future of the country. The current Opposition reflects the profound social need for change and democratization. AKP and MHP voters have far more hard-line nationalist and less democratic attitudes than supporters of the opposition parties.
Topic:
Democratization, Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

322. The European Political Community from Paris to Chisinau: an idea taking shape?

Author:
Florent Marciacq, Denis Cenusa, and Ioannis Armakolas
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The European Political Community (EPC), an idea put forward by President Macron of France, echoing a similar proposal made by former Italian PM Enrico Letta, was launched and gained traction in response to the challenge posed by Russia’s war against Ukraine. The imperative of focusing on security and forming a common front against Russian aggression served as a key rationale for expanding the EPC beyond a value-based community of like-minded democratic states. The first EPC Summit was held in Prague in October 2022. A successful gathering of 44 states, including countries with still-strong ties to Russia, it gave the sense that a common pan-European front was gradually forming against Moscow. Seven priority areas were identified: energy security, critical infrastructure, cybersecurity, youth, migration, regional cooperation in the Caucasus and Black Sea area, and resilience funding. The second Summit took place on 1st June 2023 near Chisinau, the capital of the Republic of Moldova, a small landlocked state in Eastern Europe which only recently achieved candidate status for EU accession. The Summit was a strong signal of support for Moldova’s efforts to consolidate its escape from Russia’s stranglehold, but also for its neighbour, embattled Ukraine. Discussions in Chisinau addressed energy security, transport networks and connectivity, cybersecurity and the integrity of critical infrastructure. Strategic cooperation was another prominent topic. Leaders reiterated the importance of restoring peace by providing increased military support to Ukraine, but also combating hybrid threats in Moldova through the recently launched EU Partnership Mission (EUPAM). At present, the EPC format seems to be pursuing two separate agendas: structuring the EU’s relations with its neighbours, and rallying the European family against Russia. Articulating and balancing these objectives properly will not be easy, and would seem to require the removal of stumbling blocks and a clarification of the level of institutionalisation at which the EPC would be required to operate. Thus, as the EPC Summit moves next to Spain and then to the United Kingdom, there is still no comprehensive consensus as to what the overall purpose of the EPC is, and whether and to what extent it should be institutionalised, which is to say endowed with a secretariat, separate funding and a certain degree of functional autonomy. A number of influential countries, including France and the U.K., see the EPC’s greatest advantage as residing in its informality and lack of institutionalisation. However, it could be argued that for the EPC’s strategic engagement in security, energy and connectivity to be successful, some level of institutionalisation and greater involvement by the EU will be required. At the same time, for the EPC to maintain its added value, it will need to preserve significant pockets of informality and flexibility of process.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, European Union, Energy, Regional Politics, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Europe

323. Turkey’s new Cabinet: intellectuals and ‘men of state’ as Erdoğan’s operatives – Evangelos Areteos

Author:
Evangelos Areteos
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
“Erdoğanism” has emerged as the dominant trend in Turkey’s political evolution. Intellectuals as men of state predominate among Erdoğan’s high-ranking civil servants. The shaping and management of narratives are the key factors behind Erdoğan’s success. The new Cabinet will guide Turkey towards the fulfillment of the “Century of Türkiye” through a combination of soft and hard power.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

324. 187.6 km to Europe: from Sfax to Lampedusa and the new ‘migration crisis’ in the Central Mediterranean

Author:
Angeliki Dimitriadi
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Tunisia is the main departure point to Italy in 2023 for West Africans and sub-Saharan Africans. Socio-economic conditions, food shortages, and poor governance are key factors in Tunisian migration. The absence of an asylum and migration system is a critical factor in the transit of asylum seekers to Europe. Comparisons with the 2011 crisis reveal lessons learnt, with Italy taking a more proactive stance. Europe is divided but also united: divided in its member states’ initial reactions; united in its persistent deployment of a toolbox that has yielded only limited results to date.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Borders, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Europe, Italy, Tunisia, Mediterranean, and Central Mediterranean

325. The EU and Gaza 2023: Terrorism is fought with Counter-terrorism, not Wars against Civilians

Author:
Zafiris Tzannatos
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Despite several attempts for decades to reach at a political solution between Israel and Palestine, Netanyahu and his supporters offer nothing but permanent oppression while Hamas has resorted to terror. Each party refers to their rights: The right to defend versus the right to self-determination. This attitude has resulted in an escalation of tensions over time that led to a massive loss of life since October 7, 2023, when Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis and Israeli forces have so far killed 11,000 mostly civilians in Gaza. If there is a solution, it can be none other than a political one agreed between the two parties and be supported by an evenhanded approach by the international community within the confines of international law.
Topic:
International Law, European Union, Counter-terrorism, Civilians, Hamas, and October 7
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

326. Climate adaptation: The race to cool down Europe’s cities

Author:
Filipe Ataíde Lampe
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Europe’s cities are heating up at a record-breaking pace. Cooling them down will require further anchoring of nature-based solutions into urban development. The EU can help cities adapt to the effects of the climate crisis, but this will require ambitious and urgent actions. As the number of heatwaves increases across Europe, urban citizens’ life and well-being are particularly at risk. The Union has promoted concrete measures to increase green spaces in cities, but there is more the EU can do, both as a facilitator and coordinator of urban adaptation, including: Mainstream green urban planning across the EU. Launch an EU-wide assessment of environmental equality in urban settings. Link EU funds to environmental equality. Make private adaptation financing transparent. Make urban climate adaptation a strategic foresight priority. Bring the green urban agenda forward on a global scale. The record-breaking summers of tomorrow require more ambitious urban solutions. While Europe’s cities are still relatively cool today, a long adaptation path is necessary to make them liveable and resilient for the future.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, European Union, Transparency, Cities, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Europe

327. Advancing military mobility in Europe: An uphill battle

Author:
Mihai Sebastian Chihaia
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has put military mobility on top of the EU and NATO agendas. The return of traditional military threats and a renewed interest in territorial defence call for greater attempts to eliminate obstacles preventing armed forces from swiftly moving across EU borders. This Policy Brief maps the actions taken at the EU level to develop military mobility over the past years, with emphasis on the EU Action Plan 2.0. It identifies and analyses current EU objectives, outlines key challenges, and provides recommendations to enhance military mobility in Europe. Several challenges are analysed by the author, which should be urgently addressed by the EU and the member states, especially in relation to the Action Plan 2.0. These include limited funding for dual-use transport infrastructure projects at the EU level, administrative and regulatory barriers, and the lack of political will in the member states to enhance military mobility. Furthermore, the paper provides a SWOT Analysis of military mobility in Europe and the following recommendations are put forward: The commitment to advancing military mobility needs to be long-term. Military mobility needs to be complemented by a civilian dimension. EU member states should urgently prioritise developing military mobility plans. Undergo a lessons-learned process from the movement of military equipment in the context of EU and allies’ support to Ukraine. Regions and cities’ network of exchanges at the European level should include discussions on funding and dual-use infrastructure. Consider setting up an EU-NATO Centre of Excellence dedicated to military mobility in Europe.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

328. How the EU and US can advance the green transition along with energy and resource security

Author:
Annika Hedberg and Olga Khakova
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The benefits of enhanced transatlantic cooperation on the green agenda are immense — and waiting to be seized. At the Ministerial Meeting in Sweden in May, the EU and US reiterated their commitment for collaboration. While progress on the EU-US Trade & Technology Council’s (TTC) green agenda has been slow, it is now time to implement this commitment. This Policy Brief provides recommendations for the TTC for turning shared principles into joint action, with a focus on the following three areas: 1. Aligning climate and sustainability ambitions with security and geoeconomic goals; 2. Building on the power of technologies and developing common standards for the green transition and energy and resource security; 3. Ensuring access to resources needed for the green transition. In conclusion, the Paper calls for the TTC to assist the EU and the US in stepping up their joint efforts in addressing environmental challenges as well as enhancing climate action, resource and energy security through trade and technology solutions. It recognises the role the platform should play in opening the transatlantic market for products and services needed to accelerate the green transition.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Natural Resources, European Union, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

329. Reflections on Victim-Centered Accountability in Ukraine

Author:
Kelli Muddell and Anna Myriam Roccatello
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
Since Russian invaded Ukraine in late February 2022, the world has witnessed innumerable war crimes and other human rights violations, including indiscriminate attacks against civilians, summary executions, torture and ill-treatment, sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV), unlawful detentions, and forced deportation. In response, officials in Ukraine and members of the international community have launched multiple—and unprecedently expansive—efforts to investigate and prosecute these atrocities. Most, however, narrowly focus on criminal prosecution and often overlook the immediate needs and perspectives of victims. This paper examines the various actions that have been taken or are under consideration to investigate and prosecute war crimes and other human rights violations in Ukraine. It explores the myriad challenges they face and how tools from the field of transitional justice can be applied in tandem to deliver justice and reparation to victims and lay the foundation for a more inclusive and democratic Ukraine. The paper makes the case that criminal accountability is but one dimension of justice. For Ukrainians most acutely affected by the war, such as victims of torture and SGBV, as well as broad sectors of the civilian population whose lives have been upended and who now find themselves in desperate need, justice in fact entails a number of remedies including humanitarian assistance based on acknowledgment and repair. The authors further argue that the ongoing initiatives to investigate crimes committed in the war offer an opportunity. Specifically, the vast amount of documentation that government, civil society, and international actors have been gathering for use as evidence in criminal proceedings can be harnessed to advance other justice-related objectives. For instance, this information could serve a truth-seeking process that aims to establish a victim-centered historical record of the war and could inform the design of a more coordinated and forward-looking assistance program, including a much-needed reparations program.
Topic:
Reform, Criminal Justice, Accountability, Institutions, Peace, Justice, Reparations, Gender, Truth and Reconciliation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

330. ASEAN’s Role in the Threat of Global Economic Decoupling: Implications from Geographical Simulation Analysis

Author:
Ikumo Isono and Satoru Kumagai
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The war between Russia and Ukraine since February 2022 has triggered renewed concerns about global economic decoupling. Although the face-to-face meeting between the United States and China leaders in November 2022 agreed to continue the dialogue, it is premature to assert that progress has begun in the direction of avoiding decoupling. We used the geographical simulation model (IDE/ERIA-GSM) to examine the possible economic impacts of global economic decoupling on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). We define decoupling as policy changes that raise barriers to trade in goods and services and firms’ responses to these changes. If policy decoupling occurs despite the efforts of economic agents, the global economy is negatively affected. ASEAN has a relative advantage through positive trade diversion effects if it does not join any of the groups. Adherence to a rules-based international trade order will ultimately benefit ASEAN Member States and people. ASEAN should demonstrate ASEAN centrality and show the world its efforts to avoid decoupling. It should also avoid participating in decoupling if it occurs.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Industry, ASEAN, and Connectivity
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

331. Reframing of Global Strategies and Regional Cooperation Pathways for an Inclusive Net-Zero Strategy in the Energy Transition Framework

Author:
Fachry Abdul Razak Afifi, Venkatachalam Anbumozhi, Dongmei Chen, Alin Halimaussadiah, and Vida Hardjono
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
As carbon dioxide emission reductions become increasingly urgent to counter climate change, many nations have announced net-zero emissions targets. Achieving a net-zero economy will require the decarbonisation of electricity generation, massive expansion of low-carbon energy systems, and investment in net-zero-carbon technologies. These adjustments must consider the existing energy, economic, and social development imperatives of advanced and developing countries, while encouraging regional cooperation. This brief assesses energy transition challenges for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and proposes new policy pathways towards an inclusive global net-zero economy.
Topic:
Climate Change, ASEAN, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

332. Geographical Simulation Analysis for CADP 3.0

Author:
Ikumo Isono, Satoru Kumagai, and Keita Oikawa
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The economic impact of the development of transport and digital infrastructure and the adoption of energy-saving technologies envisaged in the Comprehensive Asia Development Plan 3.0 (CADP 3.0) was analysed using the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) and Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) geographical simulation model (IDE/ERIA-GSM). This infrastructure development and technology adoption will affect all industries and change the structure of the economy as the basis for rejuvenated and advanced industries such as agriculture, automotives, medicine, and pharmaceuticals. By combining this infrastructure development and technology adoption, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia could achieve high economic impacts and geographical inclusiveness. The Lao People’s Democratic Republic will obtain the greatest economic impact as it transitions from a landlocked to a land-linked country. Cambodia will also reap significant benefits from upgrading information and communication technology. The simulation results thus recommend the implementation of the CADP 3.0 strategy for both ASEAN and individual Member States.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, ASEAN, COVID-19, and Simulation
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

333. Facilitating Global Trade and Investment and Leveraging Value Added in Downstream Industries

Author:
Raihan M. Ramadhan and Pyan Amin Muchtar
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Despite facing global uncertainties, Indonesia has achieved macroeconomic stability, supported by strong responses in fiscal and monetary policy, as well as robust domestic supply chains. By using its natural resources and following the global trend of green industries, Indonesia aims to become a key player in the global renewable energy market. Sound infrastructure is one of the key requirements to attract high-profile investments, but Indonesia struggles with poor and unequal infrastructure. Cumbersome bureaucracy and restrictiveness towards services trade also hinder the nation from reaching its potential. Strengthening physical, human, and institutional infrastructure will help the country secure investments and boost trade.
Topic:
Investment, Trade, Industry, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

334. Redefining Indonesia’s Digital Economy

Author:
Militcyano Samuel Sapulette and Pyan Amin Muchtar
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The Indonesian digital economy is the largest and most attractive investment destination amongst the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States (AMS). The sector has grown more than fourfold in the last 4 years and has supported other sectors. Amid the exponential growth, digital businesses are facing what is called a ‘tech winter’ in which start-ups are likely to experience slowdowns or even bankruptcy. In addition, although the digital transformation helps businesses improve productivity and drive economic growth, it has consequences for employment and wages, particularly for less skilled workers. While the potential of the digital economy must be continuously harnessed, some key initiatives need to be implemented to mitigate its negative effects.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Investment, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

335. The Global Economic Outlook and the State of Indonesia

Author:
Ivana Markus and Pyan Amin Muchtar
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The global economy is facing a perfect storm as a result of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, prolonged geopolitical tensions, soaring inflation, and tightening monetary policy. A darkening future has been projected and the worst is yet to come. Amid global uncertainty, governments have become less aggressive in their budget spending, while high inflation has led many central banks to tighten their monetary policy. Furthermore, the pandemic has left widespread scarring effects, such as unemployment, poverty, and inequality, particularly on vulnerable groups. Global challenges and lower economic growth of the major economies will also affect Indonesia’s economic conditions, as the country may experience slower growth as a spillover from its major trading partners. It is important for the world and Indonesia to address these challenges, particularly the scarring effects, through multilateral solidarity and better maintenance of prudent fiscal policy.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, Investment, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

336. ASEAN Digital Community 2040

Author:
Lili Yan Ing and Ivana Markus
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Digital transformation (DX) is one of the most crucial innovations to have changed modern life over the last decade. The number of annual installations of industrial robots worldwide has more than doubled. Technological revolutions have led to unprecedented changes in what and how we trade. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is on track to grow its digital community, with a rising number of internet users and greater internet penetration. However, one of the main concerns in the growing DX era is the digital divide within and across countries including in ASEAN, which is reflected in the gaps in internet speed, usage, and technology production amongst ASEAN Member States. Other challenges in DX are privacy, cybersecurity, and competition concerns. The ASEAN Chairmanship in 2023 could address several DX challenges to move towards the vision of a thriving ASEAN Digital Community by 2040 through implementing ASEAN commitments, improving the quality of key digital enablers for digital technology adoption, enhancing countries’ preparedness for digital transformation, and improving the quality of privacy and competition laws to address the costs and risks of DX.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Innovation, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

337. Structural Transformation and the Global Production Value Chain: Potential Impact of the Cambodia-Republic of Korea FTA on Cambodia

Author:
Shandre Mugan Thangavelu and Vutha Hing
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the structural transformation of the Cambodian economy based on the impact of the CKFTA in terms of trade, output growth, and employment. It summarises the key results of the CKFTA study that examined the impact of the CKFTA on the Cambodian economy – specifically quantitative (structural gravity model estimation and simulation) and qualitative trade policy evaluation in terms of exports, output, and structural transformation of the economy in the global and regional value chains. The policy brief also highlights the key benefits of the CKFTA to the Cambodian economy.
Topic:
Economy, Economic Growth, Investment, Trade, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and Cambodia

338. Understanding the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement: A Means to Support ASEAN Integration

Author:
Mima Sefrina
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has accelerated the importance of digital technologies in the economy, particularly in e-commerce and digital financial services. Recognising the importance of digital technologies for economic recovery, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders signed the Bandar Seri Begawan Roadmap in 2021, which laid the foundation for the integration of the ASEAN digital economy in three phases – recovery, implementation, and transformation – and affirmed their interest in the establishment of a Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA). The DEFA aims to deepen existing digital economy cooperation and ensure the interoperability of digital economy systems. The formulation and signing of the DEFA will require the provision of flexible timelines and technical assistance, as the ASEAN Digital Integration Index shows that ASEAN is still in the early stages of digital economy development and that ASEAN Member States are at different levels of readiness for digital economy integration.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Digital Economy, Regional Integration, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

339. Fostering ASEAN’s Digital Future through Cybersecurity Policies and Human Empowerment

Author:
Michelle Chandra Kasih
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The adoption of advanced technology comes with the risk of cyberattacks. Despite the remarkable prospects of the digital economy, the cost of cyberattacks has reached millions of United States (US) dollars and is projected to increase. Investment is needed to provide cybersecurity to help secure the growth of the digital and sustainable economy and anticipate more advanced attacks. As investment in cybersecurity has started to grow in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), challenges are present in the intangible form of inexistent or strict policies, skill shortages, and insufficient public awareness, which can halt the effectiveness of such investment. This policy brief proposes three policy recommendations to ensure successful investment in cybersecurity: Ensure that cybersecurity policies and legal frameworks are not underdeveloped or overly restrictive. Support small businesses in earning customer trust through cost-effective guidelines. Incentivise and maintain partnerships for education, research, and capacity building with moral and ethical education for future experts. Raise cyber hygiene and establish integrative reporting platforms that help people identify and detect cyber risk.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Digital Economy, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

340. Development of the Blue Economy in Viet Nam

Author:
Vo Tri Thanh
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Viet Nam is exploring various models to promote long-term economic growth and sustainable development, including the blue economy. Viet Nam’s policy documents have no formal definition of the marine economy or the newer concept of the blue economy. However, the policy documents have increasingly captured the essence of the blue economy, especially related to sustainable development. While lacking frequent updates and sufficient scope, the available statistics show the importance of the marine economy in the country. Viet Nam has various advantages for blue economy development, including high levels of sea traffic, a large sea area, a long coastline, and abundant marine resources. New opportunities for blue economy development can arise from consumers’ attention to sustainable development, improvement of the related legal framework, and cooperation with partners and foreign investors. However, Viet Nam needs to improve the awareness of local authorities and people, strengthen institutions for blue economy development, and upgrade the capacity to forecast and warn of natural disasters and climate change at sea, including via international cooperation.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Sustainability, ASEAN, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:
Vietnam and Southeast Asia

341. Malaysia’s Blue Economy: Position, Initiatives, and Challenges

Author:
Abdul Hafizh Mohd Azam, Muhamad Rias K.V. Zainuddin, and Tamat Sarmidi
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Malaysia leverages the economic activities in and around its oceans, seas, and coastal areas, as its maritime space is double the country’s land area. The marine-based or blue economy contributes about 23% of Malaysia’s GDP. Realising the importance of the blue economy led Malaysian policymakers to incorporate the concept of the blue economy in the Twelfth Malaysia Plan, which was developed in consultation with relevant ministries and organisations. Although the blue economy has been identified as a key area of growth for Malaysia, its development faces numerous challenges such as the absence of a comprehensive national ocean policy and marine spatial plan, overlapping jurisdiction amongst government agencies, and shortage of labour. Thus, a systematic approach is necessary to analyse the gaps in the ‘8i-ecosystem’ to ensure the effective development and management of Malaysia's blue economy. To ensure that the initiatives for the blue economy in Malaysia are on track and delivering the intended outcomes, appropriate monitoring and evaluation approaches and mechanisms must be in place.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Services, Trade, ASEAN, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:
Malaysia and Southeast Asia

342. Developing the Blue Economy in Indonesia

Author:
Keanu Can Can and Teguh Dartano
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
During Indonesia’s chairmanship of ASEAN in 2023, it has highlighted the blue economy as a key sector for the region’s sustainable future. A greener and bluer economy requires both environmental and societal balance. In prioritising the sector, Indonesia recognises both the steep challenges and the abundant potential associated with the blue economy, alongside the need for international and inter-sectoral cooperation to fully leverage the sector’s capacity for a more inclusive and equitable future. This brief explores Indonesia’s existing progress in harnessing its blue economy, what challenges lie ahead, and what strategic initiatives Indonesia must undertake to pave a pathway towards a blue economic transformation.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, Regulation, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

343. ASEAN Digital Community (ADC) 2045

Author:
Lili Yan Ing, Imam Pambagyo, Yessi Vadila, Ivana Markus, and Livia Feliciani Nazara
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Digital transformation has profoundly reshaped not only the way we work but also the way we live. It has shifted the focus of goods and services trade, emphasising not only what is produced and traded, but also how it is traded, customised, and delivered. The rapid digital transformation within the ASEAN region has ushered in an array of risks and challenges. These challenges encompass a spectrum of concerns, ranging from the safeguarding of data privacy and fortification against cyber threats to grappling with intensified competition and addressing the ever-widening digital divide. To fully embrace the opportunities presented by the digital age, ASEAN must lay the foundation for an ASEAN Digital Community (ADC) 2045, that can serve as a vision for ASEAN in embracing a new era. This visionary pursuit must be anchored in four pivotal cornerstones: robust data governance, the infusion of value-added principles, the establishment of seamless digital connectivity, and the propagation of digital inclusivity.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Innovation, Integration, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia

344. Developing a National Blue Economy Framework for Lao PDR

Author:
Aloun Phonvisay
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This policy brief discusses the development of a national blue economy framework for the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) to capitalise on the country’s rich water and forest resources in a sustainable manner. The framework would promote sustainable development of the blue economy, identify priority areas for investment, enhance stakeholder capacity, and promote the Lao PDR blue economy. The priority sectors identified for investment include fisheries, forest carbon, inland marine connectivity, and hydropower development.
Topic:
Sustainable Development Goals, Investment, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Laos

345. A Strategy for US Public Diplomacy in the Age of Disinformation

Author:
Bret Schafer, Rachael Dean Wilson, and Jessica Brandt
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
“Would you rather have the bitter truth or more sweet lies?” This is the question posed by an assertive series of videos produced by the State Department in recent months, targeting Russian audiences, that juxtapose statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin with evidence that he is lying about the course of the war in Ukraine. DOWNLOAD PDF The effort, alongside revelations laid bare by Washington and its allies at the start of the war, reflects a new understanding: that the information domain is perhaps the most consequential terrain that Putin is contesting and that it is an essential theater of the broader, emerging, persistent, asymmetric competition between liberal democracies and their authoritarian challengers. As part of this competition, autocrats—in Moscow and Beijing, but also elsewhere—have leveraged multiple asymmetries. Both Russia and China operate vast propaganda networks that use multiple modes of communication—from state media websites to popular social media accounts to leading search engines—to disseminate their preferred, often slanted, versions of events. Both have spread multiple, sometimes conflicting, conspiracy theories designed to deflect blame for their own malfeasance, undermine the soft power of the United States, and erode the idea that there is such a thing as objective truth. Both also deploy proxy influencers to agitate anti-American sentiment and frequently engage in “whataboutism” to cast US policy as hypocritical to audiences around the world. Some of this content is targeted at broad swaths of the public within Western societies—in Russia’s case with the goal of polarizing them, and in so doing, weakening Europe and the United States from within. Other content is targeted at the global south, with the goal of eroding popular support for Western policies and, in China’s case, promoting alternatives to the Western model. For the United States, like other democracies, an open information environment confers enormous long-term advantages, but it also creates vulnerabilities that can be exploited using low-cost tools and tactics, often with plausible deniability. Where democracies depend on the idea that the truth is knowable and citizens can discern it to govern themselves, autocracies have no such need for a vibrant, open, trusted information environment. In fact, autocrats benefit from widespread public skepticism in the notion of objective truth. Because autocratic regimes tightly control their own information environments, they are more insulated from criticism than democratic ones. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping effectively ban many Western social media platforms from operating within their borders in order to close space for dissent, all the while using them quite effectively to target audiences abroad. In doing so, unlike their democratic competitors, autocrats face few normative constraints on lying—a dynamic they freely exploit. As a result, autocrats have made remarkable advances in the contest that is now underway in the information domain. To push back on these advances, the United States should leverage its own asymmetric advantages—including its economic might, cyber capabilities, soft power, and the legitimacy that comes from democratic governance—recognizing that successful competitors play to their strengths. A focal point of US strategy should be to harness truthful information to contest the information domain, recognizing that competition in this realm is ongoing and there is a first mover advantage to setting the terms of the debate. Such an approach should entail simultaneously highlighting the strengths of liberal democracies (such as their openness to new information and ability to course correct, innovate, and improve) and the failures and false promises of authoritarian regimes (like kleptocracy and repression). It must do so not just to reach those who live in closed spaces, such as Russia and China, but to reach those who live in countries that are backsliding or where democracy is not fully consolidated. This paper—which is based on conversations with more than a dozen subject-matter experts, including current and former diplomats—offers recommendations for updating US public diplomacy to compete successfully with Russia and China. The focus, however, is limited to US international broadcasting and strategic communication activities and does not include recommendations to improve other elements of US public diplomacy, including but not limited to cultural diplomacy and people-to-people exchanges. The authors recognize that public diplomacy is not merely about crafting a winning message and that an effective US approach must include activities that lie outside of the information domain. This paper should therefore be viewed as an attempt at improving a piece of, but not the whole, public diplomacy puzzle.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democracy, Media, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

346. Assessing the Risk of Foreign Influence in UK Search Results

Author:
Bret Schafer and Peter Benzoni
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
As the de facto gateway to the vast troves of information available online, search services play a critical role in the modern information ecosystem. They are often the starting points for people’s questions about the world around them, from the innocuous to the deeply consequential. The results generated by search algorithms can therefore influence everything from consumer behavior to people’s political and social preferences, often in ways that are imperceptible to users of those systems. Given this significant power, search services are also targets of those who seek to manipulate information to advance a particular, and at times malign, agenda. This includes those working for or on behalf of autocratic foreign governments, who can attempt to leverage search results to whitewash human rights abuses, attack opponents, or interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. The threat is particularly acute with well-resourced states that operate global state-backed media outlets, troll farms, and other state-aligned information outlets that allow them to exploit search services through strategic content production, search engine optimization, or intentional manipulation. DOWNLOAD PDF To evaluate this potential risk, we analyzed data over a 30-day period across six search products on four search services (Google Search, Google News, Microsoft Bing, Bing News, Yandex Search, and Baidu Search) to assess the prominence of foreign state-linked websites, or those that reproduce content from those websites, in search returns for queries related to topics of national importance to the United Kingdom. Importantly, we could not assess, nor was it our intention to assess, whether the prominence of any state-linked sources in search results was the result of deliberate manipulation by those states or merely the product of search algorithms determining that the content produced by those sites was relevant to a given query. We also did not assess the relative quality of any individual state media outlets. We recognize that state-backed information sources exist on a broad spectrum in terms of their authoritativeness and journalistic standards, and that a connection to a foreign state is not necessarily problematic and should not be viewed by search services as an inherent risk. In short, our efforts to understand the prominence of state-linked sources in search results should not be viewed as an attempt to document wrongdoing, either by the sources themselves or by the search services that surfaced those sources. In addition, although we attempted to select topics that were important to UK interests instead of those that favored the interests of any one foreign government, some of the chosen queries—notably those related to the war against Ukraine—were more likely to be the focus of messaging from certain countries. Results from this study should therefore not be used as comparative data points to suggest that any one state is more influential in UK search results than any other. Instead, the goal of this research was simply to gain a better understanding of how and how often content from websites with direct or indirect links to foreign states—primarily state-backed media outlets but also websites directly or indirectly linked to foreign governments or foreign intelligence services—surfaced in search results in the four constituent countries of the UK. Though we offer several illustrative examples highlighting specific vulnerabilities uncovered by our research, the bulk of this report is focused on assessing a potential risk of foreign interference by identifying the types of variables—from the topic searched for to the language used—that regularly generated search results from state-linked websites, without assessing whether the content of those search results is potentially illegal under the UK’s newly created Foreign Interference Offense included in the National Security Act 2023. We did, however, pay particular attention to the presence of content produced by media outlets currently sanctioned by the UK government, namely Russian state media outlets that were sanctioned after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, Media, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

347. Family Rule in Iraq and the Challenge to State and Democracy

Author:
Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
After the fall of Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship in 2003, Iraqi political parties proliferated in a show of enthusiasm for the country’s emerging democracy. In recent years, however, a handful of personalities and families have consumed all of the country’s political oxygen, dashing hopes for a truly pluralistic ecosystem. Especially discouraging has been the authoritarian shift in Kurdistan, once viewed as a democratic beacon in the Middle East. At the federal level, feuding between the Sadr and Maliki camps now dominates Shia politics, and Mohammed al-Halbousi has crowded out other Sunni players. Meanwhile, corruption touches every surface, and the rare official who holds to ethical standards risks being rendered entirely ineffectual. In this wide-ranging Policy Note, experts Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab outline the dispiriting state of Iraqi politics and how the United States can respond. To achieve the scaled-down goals of maintaining sovereignty and accountability, they argue, American officials must be creative, working with Iraqi institutional actors while simultaneously engaging with less central figures such as apolitical military commanders and the business community.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Democracy, State, and Shia Islam
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

348. An Heir and a Spare? How Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah” Could Change Iran’s Deterrent Calculus

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Since October 27, the Houthis have launched three medium-range ballistic missiles at Israel, a first since Saddam Hussein fired Scud missiles into the country in 1991. The Yemen-based jihadists have also launched at least eight salvos of cruise missiles and long-range explosive drones focused on the southern port of Eilat. Moreover, they have attacked U.S. assets directly during the Hamas-Israel war, shooting down one MQ-9 Reaper drone and routing numerous missiles near Navy vessels. If Iran continues to develop the group’s capabilities, the Houthis may provide the broader “axis of resistance” with a potent new chess piece. In this timely Policy Note, Michael Knights assesses the rising Houthi threat and explains how the United States and its allies can respond more assertively and effectively. A revamped policy would recognize the intimate alliance between the Houthis and Iran—which has never been a “marriage of convenience,” as some analysts have imagined—and seek to counter the group’s aggression with the goal of securing U.S. interests and providing a better future for the Yemeni people.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Deterrence, and Houthis
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

349. Exploiting a "Vast Jihad Arena": The Islamic State Takes Territory in Mali

Author:
Aaron Y. Zelin and Sarah Cahn
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In April, Islamic State fighters in Mali seized villages surrounding the city of Menaka, marking the group’s first territorial conquest since losing its final Syrian foothold in 2019. The human cost of these advances has been steep. By May, at least 150,000 individuals had reportedly been displaced, and civilians have been subjected to targeted killings, kidnappings, and looting. The offensive occurred amid a string of regional of security setbacks: namely, France’s August 2022 military withdrawal (which followed the Malian junta’s expressed preference for Russia’s Wagner Group), the April 2023 dissolution of the UN mission in Mali, and the junta’s decision earlier this month to form a tripartite alliance with Burkina Faso and Niger, thereby undermining the French-led G5 Sahel framework designed to thwart jihadist actors in the region. In this amply illustrated Policy Note, Aaron Zelin and Sarah Cahn explain that while the United States may have limited room for maneuver in Mali today, it can promote regional stability and U.S. national interests by pursuing further sanctions against local Islamic State officials and exploring constructive arrangements with nearby African states.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, and Mali

350. The Palestinian Authority Thirty Years After Oslo

Author:
Neomi Neumann
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Palestinians and Israelis mark the thirtieth anniversary of the Oslo Accords, it is worth pausing to examine what remains of the original promise contained in the agreement (hint: something does remain). More than that, it is worth examining whether those remnants can survive the many challenges facing the Palestinian Authority, especially those likely to emerge “the day after” President Mahmoud Abbas exits the stage.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Democracy, Palestinian Authority, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine