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Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Content Type Policy Brief Publication Year within 25 Years

201. Morocco's Emergence as a Gateway to Business in Africa

Author:
J. Peter Pham and Ricardo Rene Laremont
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Africa is home to seven of the world's ten fastest-growing economies. By 2050, the continent's population is expected to overtake India's and China's, doubling to two billion people. Moreover, those two billion Africans will be younger than their counterparts in every other region of the world and will account for one in four workers globally by mid-century. Africa's rich endowment of natural resources, including about 30 percent of the world's known reserves of minerals and 60 percent of the planet's uncultivated arable land, is already well-known to investors.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Morocco

202. The Northwest Territories and Arctic Maritime Development in the Beaufort Area

Author:
John Higginbotham and Marina Grosu
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The Arctic is facing remarkable climatic and oceanic change that is triggering unprecedented opportunities and challenges for Arctic nations, as well as for countries that do not have Arctic territory but are eager to engage and invest in the region. For Canada and the United States, the Beaufort basin offers unique opportunities for Alaska and Canada's Arctic territories.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, North America, and Arctic

203. How to Make Fuel Subsidy Reform Succeed

Author:
Isobel Coleman
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Fossil fuel subsidies are a global scourge. They distort markets, strain government budgets, encourage overconsumption, foster corruption, and harm the environment while doing little to remedy inequality or stimulate development. Yet despite compelling arguments for reform, fossil fuel subsidies remain deeply entrenched. Citizens have yet to be convinced that fuel subsidies can and should be replaced with more efficient poverty alleviation programs. As a result, governments refrain from phasing out fuel subsidies for fear of triggering a public backlash, and even civil unrest. To bolster the prospects for subsidy reform, the United States should support the creation of a new public-private partnership within the World Bank, the Global Subsidy Elimination Campaign (GSEC), to work with governments to execute country-specific communication programs that would build the case for fossil fuel subsidy reform among citizens. The GSEC would start with pilot programs in select countries, and on the basis of these efforts, expand its work to other countries interested in fuel subsidy reform. If the GSEC help s generate just a 5 percent reduction in the more than half a trillion dollars that governments now spend on fossil fuel subsidies, it would free up billions of dollars for more effective anti-poverty initiatives.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States

204. Toward a multilateral framework for investment

Author:
Nicolle Graugnard
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Business needs a stable and predictable investment environment, especially in times of economic uncertainty, to continue to generate employment and create wealth. Although foreign direct investment (FDI) flows rose for two years after plummeting in the wake of the global financial crisis, they fell again by 18% to US$ 1.4 trillion in 2012. According to UNCTAD, the major factors contributing to this sharp decline were economic fragility and policy uncertainty in several economies. Moreover, investment regulations classified as “restrictive” rose to 25% in 2012, compared to just 6% in 2000; “liberalizing” regulations were 75 % of the total in 2012, compared to 94% in 2000. The result of these regulations is, therefore, not surprising: businesses are holding back on new investments, with multinational enterprises reporting record cash-holdings of between US$ 4 to 5 trillion.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Governance

205. The futile debate over a multilateral framework for investment

Author:
Axel Berger
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
One of the recurrent debates on international investment rule-making relates to the question whether it is possible to establish a multilateral framework for investment (MFI). Proponents argue that growing foreign direct investment (FDI) from emerging countries, especially China, contributes to a new consensus on global investment rules.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China

206. The need for an international investment consensus-building process

Author:
Karl P. Sauvant and Federico Ortino.
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Discussions on a multilateral investment framework have recently seen a revival, as the International Chamber of Commerce, the World Economic Forum and various authors have called for negotiations on this subject. A growing number of countries have been reviewing and adapting their international investment policies. This reflects dissatisfaction with the current international investment law regime, and a desire to improve it.
Topic:
Economics, International Law, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment

207. Cost allocation in investment arbitration: Back toward diversification

Author:
Baiju S. Vasani and Anastasiya Ugale
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In 2006, the Thunderbird tribunal, operating under the UNCITRAL Arbitration Rules, called for the harmonization of cost-allocation approaches in commercial and investment arbitration. Subsequent tribunals appear to be heeding Thunderbird's call paving a trend in favor of the so-called “costs follow the event” (CFtE) approach and its variations. Generally, this approach prescribes the shifting of arbitral costs and reasonable legal fees to the unsuccessful party (or based on parties' relative success) and has historically been prevalent in commercial arbitration. By contrast, the more traditional approach in investment arbitration has been to share the costs of arbitration equally, save for special circumstances, with each party covering its own legal fees (traditional approach). In the wake of what appears to be an emerging trend in favor of a default CFtE custom, it is time to revisit the idea of whet her a single harmonized approach to cost allocation is really appropriate. We suggest that it most likely is not.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment

208. The Global Arctic: The Growing Arctic Interests of Russia, China, the United States and the European Union

Author:
Juha Käpylä and Harri Mikkola
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
With exciting economic opportunities and serious environmental challenges, the Arctic is transforming and re-emerging as a geopolitically important region. Major global players within and without the Arctic are paying greater attention to the region. While Russia is a traditional Arctic state with significant economic and security interests in the region, China, the US and the EU have also expressed their Arctic interests more explicitly. They are keen to tap into the economic potential and have a say in the way the region becomes accessed, exploited and governed. As a result, the Arctic is no longer a spatially or administratively confined region, but is instead taking its new form in the midst of contemporary global politics. The globalization and economization of the Arctic will most likely downplay environmentalism and reduce the relative influence of the indigenous people and small Arctic states in Arctic affairs. Arctic governance is also likely to turn more complex and complicated as the economic and political stakes are raised.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Development, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, and Europe

209. Progress on Sovereign Wealth Fund Transparency and Accountability: An Updated SWF Scoreboard

Author:
Edwin M. Truman and Allie E. Bagnall
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The term sovereign wealth fund (SWF) had not been coined a decade ago. By 2007, economists and the financial world were alternatively excited about or alarmed by the growing influence of these institutions, though in fact many of them had been around for decades. Politicians in countries in which the funds invested generally welcomed the additional financial resources from abroad while expressing concern about the motivations of investors and what they feared could be threats to political, economic, and financial security. The general public in the countries in which the funds were based realized at the same time that political leaders were investing large amounts of national wealth at home and abroad with limited disclosure, and they wanted to know more.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Sovereign Wealth Funds

210. US wars have little economic impact on asset prices

Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Last week we argued that a US attack on Syria would have little impact on asset prices. Here we expand this analysis to consider the effect on asset prices of other recent US attacks on a foreign power. Subject to the qualifications set out below, we find that the impact of US warfare over the past twenty years has been minimal. Excluding the first Gulf War , it is almost non-existent.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and War
Political Geography:
United States and Syria

211. The equity market will climb a wall of worry

Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The equity market has had a tough few months due to a combination of concerns, including fears that a US-led attack on Syria might lead to a wider Middle East conflict and threaten oil supplies. Of greater concern for equities are worries that a turn in the US monetary policy cycle could eventually kill off the US recovery. However with valuation not looking like a barrier to further gains, this four-and-a-half year equity bull market will in all likelihood climb the wall of worry and set another new high before the year is out.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

212. Attack on Syria: the danger is in escalation

Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
It is now looking all but certain that the United States will launch some form of attack on Syria. What is unclear is the severity and duration of the attack. Leaving aside the political ramifications, the immediate economic effects are likely to be limited (and are mostly already factored in). Opposing impacts on inflation and activity means that changes to central bank policy could be postponed. A prolonged campaign could have wider ramifications, not least if there is a risk of a geographical widening of the conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

213. Launching the third arrow of Abenomics

Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Shinzo Abe was elected Prime Minister of Japan last December on a programme intended to end two decades of deflation and lost growth in Japan. His regime, dubbed 'Abenomics', consists of three arrows: a monetary stimulus, a fiscal stimulus and structural reform. The first two are well under way. The third has yet to be fired. But following his party's victory in July's Upper House election, Mr Abe has all the backing he will need – or ever get – to forcefully launch the third arrow of Abenomics. This scenario alert examines the potential upsides for the Japanese economy if Abenomics succeeds. Although the economy will not return to the 4%+ growth rates seen in the 1980s, it could secure growth in the 2-3% range. This would be a major improvement on its dismal performance of less than 1% average real growth a year since 1993.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Reform
Political Geography:
Japan and Syria

214. US recovery on track

Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Recent US data have been uneven. An improving manufacturing ISM survey was offset by non-manufacturing data being worse than expected. Last week a strong consumer credit number was balanced by weaker small business confidence. The US economy almost certainly went through a soft patch in Q2. However, on balance the recovery–unexciting as it has been–remains on track, with some possible further mileage to be had from equities. This is consistent with the recent dovish statement by Fed Chairman Bernanke, suggesting that the tapering of quantitative easing is still some way off.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

215. Our bond market, your problem?

Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Comments from the US Federal Reserve aimed at signalling that monetary policy cannot stay at historically low levels indefinitely have caused bond yields and credit spreads to rise both in the US and abroad. Higher borrowing rates are particularly inappropriate for the Eurozone which, unlike the US, is still struggling to emerge from recession. This tightening of financial conditions will place pressure on the ECB to act. Although surveys show that investors' bearishness on US government bonds is at an extreme level, suggesting that in the coming weeks bond yields are more likely to fall than rise, the longer-term trend in bond yields is now upwards. But we do not expect the rise in yields over the next two or three years to kill off the US recovery. Consequently, we believe that the US equity market is still on an upward uptrend, albeit one that will experience regular spikes in volatility as the Fed gradually moves away from its ultra-loose policy.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

216. Why the ECB should cut borrowing costs in periphery

Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The European Central Bank has postponed any plans to introduce targeted measures to reduce the cost of borrowing for small and medium-sized businesses in the credit-starved peripheral Eurozone economies. Given the widening gap between the lower costs of borrowing for companies in Germany and France and the higher costs in the periphery, we think that there is a strong case for the ECB to take action. Simulations using our Global Macroeconomic Model show that if half the tightening in credit conditions seen since 2008 were to be reversed within two years, Eurozone GDP would be 0.7% higher by the end of 2017 than under our baseline forecast. There would be over 400,000 fewer people unemployed. This would be particularly beneficial for peripheral Eurozone risk assets.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

217. The case for rising US corporate capex

Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Shifts in financial balances between sectors of the economy are worth watching because they can signal broader cyclical changes. The US household financial balance turned negative in Q1. But that was mainly due to distortions in income related to tax increases in 2013. Taking the average of Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, households still have a positive balance. More importantly, the conditions are in place for a rise in capital expenditure (capex) by the corporate sector. This would allow both household and public sector savings to increase. It would also mean an upside risk to our main scenario for the US economy.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

218. Toward a multilateral framework for investment

Author:
Nicolle Graugnard
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Business needs a stable and predictable investment environment, especially in times of economic uncertainty, to continue to generate employment and create wealth. Although foreign direct investment (FDI) flows rose for two years after plummeting in the wake of the global financial crisis, they fell again by 18% to US$ 1.4 trillion in 2012. According to UNCTAD, the major factors contributing to this sharp decline were economic fragility and policy uncertainty in several economies. Moreover, investment regulations classified as “restrictive” rose to 25% in 2012, compared to just 6% in 2000; “liberalizing” regulations were 75% of the total in 2012, compared to 94% in 2000. The result of these regulations is, therefore, not surprising: businesses are holding back on new investments, with multinational enterprises reporting record cash-holdings of between US$ 4 to 5 trillion.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources

219. Are trade-law inspired investment rules desirable?

Author:
Marino Baldi
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Traditional bilateral investment treaties (BITs) focus on investment protection, i.e., regulate post-establishment aspects of foreign investment. In recent times, investment agreements have increasingly been supplemented with liberalization rules and also clauses on, e.g., key personnel, labor rights and sustainable development. Such integrated investment accords have notably become part of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). This trend started with NAFTA, continued with the negotiations on a Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI), and has in the course of the past ten years increasingly characterized PTAs throughout the world. The rapid proliferation of PTAs has, in the investment field, unfortunately led to lower quality provisions. Many of these treaties contain such wide-ranging exceptions and vaguely formulated safeguard clauses that their regulatory value as regards the protection of foreign investments in their post-establishment phase is called into question.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment

220. Iceland and Europe: Drifting further apart?

Author:
Baldur Thorhallsso and Alyson J. K. Bailes
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 at the height of the economic crisis. Four years later, a new government has put the application on hold: the majority of Icelanders are opposed to entry, but want to continue the accession process and put the results to a vote. Iceland's longer-standing problems with European integration stem from the issue of sovereignty in general, and maintaining control over fisheries and agriculture in particular. Since 2009, anti-European feelings have been stoked by the 'Icesave' dispute, while the prospective benefits of entry (including use of the euro) have been tarnished by witnessing the fate of other small states during the euro crisis. The new government proposes remaining a member of the EEA and developing relations with other world powers. But the US commitment to Iceland has weakened over the years, and 'rising' powers like China are unable, as yet, to solve the country's core problems. In terms of both its security and its standing within the global economy, Iceland is becoming more rather than less dependent on Europe over time. The question raised by the latest political turn is whether it will have to maintain that relationship from a distance, with limited control and with no guaranteed goodwill.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

221. Arctic Conflict Potential: Towards an extra-Arctic perspective

Author:
Juha Käpylä and Harri Mikkola
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
According to a popular notion, huge natural resource reserves located in the Arctic region will lead to a conflictual “gold rush” when Arctic states compete to claim these reserves for themselves. More precisely, there is the potential for interstate conflict in the Arctic area related to unresolved border issues, control of the Arctic maritime routes, and demarcation of the resource-rich continental shelves under the Arctic Ocean. However, Arctic states have little to gain by letting the Arctic dynamics slip into a conflict state that would create an unfruitful investment environment in the region. Relatively well-functioning regional and international governance mechanisms further defuse the interstate conflict potential in the region. Despite the divergent political interests of various players, the intra-Arctic conflict potential remains low. Should interstate conflict surface in the Arctic, the source is most likely to be related to complex global dynamics that may spill over to the region and which cannot be addressed with existing Arctic governance mechanisms. This extra-Arctic perspective should be increasingly taken into consideration by scholars and policy-makers.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Natural Resources

222. China's Credit Boom: New Risks Require New Reforms

Author:
Nicholas Borst
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Chinese financial system has undergone almost continuous reform since the dismantling in the 1980s of the Soviet- style system where only one state-controlled bank existed. Government efforts to create a financial system that adheres to international best practices of commercial lending accelerated in the 1990s (box 1). Reforms progressed quickly during this period, but they were accompanied by excessive credit growth and a massive increase in nonperforming loans, threatening the solvency of some banks and the financial stability of the entire economy. The risk of these weaknesses was dramatized by the 1997 Asian financial crisis, in which several nearby countries were crippled by plunging currency values, rising interest rates and difficulties servicing their foreign-held debts.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China

223. Lehman Died, Bagehot Lives: Why Did the Fed and Treasury Let a Major Wall Street Bank Fail?

Author:
William R. Cline and Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Five years after the Federal Reserve and the Treasury allowed the investment bank Lehman Brothers to fail, their actions (or inaction) remain a focus of debate. Some argue that it was an inconsistent policy to have let Lehman fail while making emergency loans to save other large financial institutions in the same time frame. In this Policy Brief we present evidence that the Fed and Treasury had a sound reason to have bailed out other institutions while letting Lehman fail. Simply put, Lehman was insolvent—probably deeply so—whereas the other institutions arguably were solvent. In addition, the other institutions had abundant collateral to pledge, whereas what little collateral Lehman had to pledge was of questionable quality and scattered across many affiliated entities. Thus, federal officials, at least in hindsight, appear to have followed the dictum of Walter Bagehot (cited above), which has guided central banks for almost 150 years.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

224. Oil, Conflict, and U.S. National Interests

Author:
Jeff D. Colgan
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Although the threat of “resource wars” over possession of oil reserves is often exaggerated, the sum total of the political effects generated by the oil industry makes oil a leading cause of war. Between one-quarter and one-half of interstate wars since 1973 have been connected to one or more oil-related causal mechanisms. No other commodity has had such an impact on international security.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

225. Towards 'EuroNest 2.0': What should the next European Parliament learn from its predecessor?

Author:
Hrant Kostanyan and Bruno Vandecasteele
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Besides the Eastern Partnership's (EaP) bilateral and multilateral framework and the Civil Society Forum, the European Union (EU) engages with the EaP countries – Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan – through multilateral parliamentary cooperation, namely within the EuroNest Parliamentary Assembly (EuroNest PA).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Armenia, and Belarus

226. The EU-China partnership: 10 years on

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The establishment of the EU-China 'strategic partnership' on 30 October 2003 came at a time of converging priorities between the two actors. It also coincided with one of the worst crises in transatlantic relations, mainly due to disagreements over the US-led war in Iraq and the foreign policy stance of the first Bush ad¬ministration. As a result of the partnership, the then EU-15 and China adopted three initiatives which caught the attention of US policymakers.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Biosecurity
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, and Europe

227. Engaging Indonesia

Author:
David Camroux
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The presence of Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the G20 Summit in St Petersburg in early September went virtually unnoticed by the European media. That his attendance was overlooked can be explained by immediate factors, namely the overriding importance of the Syrian conflict in the discussions among leaders, and the fact that SBY (as President Yudhoyono is commonly known) is a lame-duck president with less than a year to go before the end of his two-term limit. Lacking BRIC status (for now at least), Indonesia – unlike China, India or even Brazil – barely registers on the radar screen of public awareness in Europe. Symptomatic of this neglect is the fact that, almost four years after its signing in November 2009, two EU member state parliaments (and the European Parliament itself) have yet to ratify the EU-Indonesia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Europe, India, Brazil, Syria, and Southeast Asia

228. Global commons: between cooperation and competition

Author:
Gerald Stang
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Rapid economic development and increasing international trade are leading to a more crowded international stage and raising new challenges in the 'global commons' – those domains that are not under the control or jurisdiction of any state but are open for use by countries, companies and individuals from around the world. Their management involves increasingly complex processes to accommodate and integrate the interests and responsibilities of states, international organisations and a host of non-state actors.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

229. The Role of Europe in Enhancing Cooperative Security in Asia and the Pacific: A View from Japan

Author:
Takako Ueta
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Asia is a prominent export market for Europe while in the East and South China Seas, tensions continue. Europe has searched for its political role in Asia. This policy brief presents an analysis and argues the role of Europe in enhancing cooperative security in Asia and the Pacific, which would promote stability and peace there.
Topic:
Security, Emerging Markets, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, Europe, Israel, and Asia

230. Banks at the Service of the Economy?

Author:
Eric De Keuleneer
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
This Policy Brief discusses a few simple measures to improve both the commercial and investment banking landscapes, with or without formal separation. Covering deposits with quality collateral would make them safer and would help create an easier guarantee and resolution mechanism at the larger eurozone level. Strong central counterparties and transparency requirements would improve market mechanisms and market discipline in capital markets and investment banking. Specific governance measures would also help improve the financial sector. Finally, a better control of bank solvency, together with improved capital market transparency and accessibility, should encourage the progressive deleveraging of commercial banks, and enhance the long term funding of the economy by capital markets.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Governance

231. What if the Next Financial Crisis Hits the Banking Union? A Call for an "If All Else Fails" Clause

Author:
Stijn Verhelst
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
This Policy Brief argues that the envisaged design of the Banking Union risks not being sufficient to deal with the next large-scale financial crisis. Therefore, an "if all else fails" clause should be approved, stating that the Banking Union members can provide joint last resort financing to deal with a future crisis. An agreement on the clause should be feasible because it is beneficial to all Member States.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

232. Don't complicate it even further: Macroeconomic Conditionality as a Substitute for new Structural Reform Contracts

Author:
Stijn Verhelst
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The idea of introducing contracts between Member States and the EU on structural reforms has its merits, it also has several disadvantages. Most notably, the contracts risk rendering European economic governance even more complex and cumbersome. It is therefore sensible to first try to integrate the structural reform contracts into one of the foreseen economic governance instruments.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe

233. A case for adjusting fiscal consolidation in the eurozone

Author:
Xavier Vanden Bosch
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Fiscal consolidation is essential to ensure the sustainability of euro zone countries' public debt. However, as a principle, consolidation should not be pursued at a pace unnecessarily undermining growth in the short term. Repeated downward revisions of growth call for the use of the flexibility foreseen in the EU fiscal framework. The Commission should adapt the deadlines for fiscal correction to prevent excessive, pro-cyclical adjustment in 2013. In turn, adequate surveillance and coordination must ensure structural adjustments constitute the core of fiscal consolidation plans.
Topic:
Debt, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe

234. Sugar Rush: Land rights and the supply chains of the biggest food and beverage companies

Author:
Jodie Thorpe
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Since 2000, nearly 800 large-scale land deals covering 33m hectares globally – an area four times the size of Portugal – have been recorded. This land has shifted from smallholder production, local community use, or the provision of important ecosystem services, to commercial use, driven in part by the rising demand for large-scale crops like sugar.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Portugal

235. The WTO Under Pressure: Tackling the deadlock in multilateral trade

Author:
Marikki Stocchetti and Johanna Jacobsson
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Multilateral trade liberalisation is in crisis. The WTO's ambitiously named Doha Development Round has been ongoing for more than a decade. Only a few limited issues remain on the negotiation agenda. While the round is being increasingly declared dead even by WTO members themselves, the same countries are concluding deeper trade agreements than ever before. Such progress, however, takes place at the bilateral and regional level. Another major development is the appearance of deep regulatory issues on the trade agenda. The shift from customs tariffs to countries' internal policies requires a certain like-mindedness from negotiation partners and poses challenges for national decision-making policies. Developing countries have gained less from multilateral trade liberalisation than what they had hoped for. The shift towards more fragmented trade regimes makes them even more prone to remain bystanders in global trade. At the WTO's next ministerial conference in Bali, progress on agriculture, trade facilitation and the treatment of the poorest countries would give a much-needed signal that the WTO can still benefit all of its members.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

236. REACH: A killer whale for SMEs?

Author:
Jacques Pelkmans, Ineke Gubbels-van Hal, and Lorna Schrefler
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Right from the start of the REACH debate, following the Commission proposal of October 2003, one of the more serious concerns was whether and how SMEs could cope with REACH. Indeed, there were doubts whether one of the main objectives of REACH – competitiveness of chemical and downstream companies – is consistent with the design and detailed implementation of REACH. Already in 2005, the European Parliament adopted a resolution on this aspect, insisting e.g. on lower fees for SMEs as one remedy to reduce the expected regulatory burden for smaller companies. The fear of REACH being unduly heavy and costly for SMEs has never gone away (see e.g. Gubbels Pelkmans, 2009) but merely receded in the background when the Commission and the European Chemical Agency (ECHA) were in the process of building and elaborating the REACH machinery in operational terms. This year, the problem is rearing its head again in a magnified fashion and it will not go away so easily this time.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

237. The New European Framework for Managing Bank Crises

Author:
Stefano Micossi, Jacopo Carmassi, and Ginevra Bruzzone
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The European Commission proposal for a Regulation establishing a European Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) for banks is now under consideration before the European Parliament and the Council. The main principles and tools applicable for resolving a failing bank are contained in the June 2012 Commission proposal for a Directive on bank recovery and resolution (BRR), aimed at harmonising crisis management and resolution tools in EU member states, which is also under consideration by the European legislators. Any discussion of the new system must therefore be based on both proposals.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe

238. Financial Services and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

Author:
Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
It is still an unresolved question whether a process for financial services regulatory cooperation and convergence will be included in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).From a n end-user's perspective, it could be argued that its inclusion could be an opportunity not only as regards product choice, but also to improve the consumer or investor protection regulatory environment on both sides of the Atlantic. The inclusion would also be in line with the assessments made by both the EU and the US that the G-20 agenda has been incorporated in local legislation and that both regimes are thus 'equivalent'.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

239. The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure and Germany: When is a current account surplus an 'imbalance'?

Author:
Daniel Gros and Matthias Busse
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) was designed to prevent the emergence of imbalances like the large and persistent current account deficits that occurred in Spain and Ireland. But within this mechanism, a current account surplus is also viewed as a source of concern. Indeed, last year's Alert Mechanism Report (AMR), issued by the European Commission signalled an excessive current account surplus for the Netherlands and Luxembourg, while Germany just barely scraped by with a 5.9% surplus, marginally evading the 6% threshold (over a 3-year average). With the most recent report, however, Germany's status has changed. Along with the Netherlands and Luxembourg, it too has now been singled out as a euro-area country with a surplus above the upper threshold.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

240. New markets and partners for Saudi oil exports

Author:
Giacomo Luciani
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Flows of crude oil sales are determined by refining demand. In recent years Saudi Arabia has invested massively in captive refining capacity at home and abroad and will be able to refine two-thirds or more of its oil in controlled refineries by the end of the current decade. Because refineries in Europe are likely to be put on sale as distressed assets, Saudi Aramco would have no difficulty in further expanding its controlled capacity. A continuation of this trend may even lead to the Kingdom not exporting crude oil to third parties at all. This is in line with the country's ambition to diversify its economy and its limited interest in further expanding oil production for the sake of selling oil as crude.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

241. Impact of China‐Africa Investment Relations: The Case of Ethiopia

Author:
Alemayehu Geda and Atenafu G. Meskel
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
This study investigated the growing relation between Ethiopia and China in the last decade. It is possible for Chinese-Africa relations to be either complementary or competitive (or indeed both) and it has multifaceted features. Notwithstanding this multifaceted linkage, the study focused on one of the channels – the investment (FDI) channel. Other channels are explored depending on the degree at which they shed light on understanding the Chinese-Ethiopian investment relations, which is the subject of this study.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Ethiopia

242. The Impact of China‐Africa Investment Relations: The Case of Madagascar

Author:
Jean Razafindravonona, Eric Rakotomanana, and Jimmy Rajaobelina
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
The rapid and spectacular expansion of the Chinese economy in the recent past is, for African countries, an opportunity to take advantage of not only in terms of strengthening the South-South cooperation, but also of developing African economies. It is thus important to define the channels through which African countries would do so. It is with this goal in mind that the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) initiated the research project on the impact of the economic relation between China and sub-Saharan African countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Madagascar

243. The Impact of China‐Africa Trade Relations: The Case of the Republic of Congo

Author:
Jean‐Christophe Boungou Bazika
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:
The relations between China and Congo are already old since they began in 1963. However since the beginning of the 2000s, the economic relations between the two countries are characterized by an unprecedented dynamism. Congo’s exports and imports with China recorded a leap of 179.38% and 309.21% respectively for the period 2001-2005. Such a trend pushed analysts to predict that the relations between Africa and China should have a significant impact and lead to upheavals in the structure of African economies. Two tendencies emerged in the literature: the first predicts that these relations would have a negative impact, in the sense that they would provoke a competition that African producers would not be able to bear. The second predicts that these relations would enable African countries to consolidate their growth, thanks to the diversification of trade and the installation of infrastructures which were lacking - such as roads, bridges, hydro-electric dams, drinking water purification plants, etc.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Republic of Congo

244. China's New Silk Road Diplomacy

Author:
Justyna Szczudlik- Tatar
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The destinations of China's new leaders' foreign trips show that the PRC's foreign policy domain remains its neighbourhood. China is trying in particular to enhance cooperation with its Central and Southeast Asia border states in what is called "new silk road" diplomacy. Behind this approach are mostly domestic rationales: a need to preserve stability on its borders and in the western part of China, secure export markets and energy supplies, develop inland transport routes as an alternative to unstable sea lines, and to narrow the development gap between the eastern and western parts of China. The PRC's "opening to the West" and reinvigoration of its Western Development Policy is a window of opportunity for Poland. The establishment in Gansu province of the Lanzhou New Area-the first state-level development zone in northwest China-could become a bridgehead for a Polish economic presence in this part of China, or even a springboard for Poland's "Go West China" strategy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Southeast Asia

245. Pushing the Turbo Button: What Next for the Polishâ?"Romanian Strategic Partnership?

Author:
Stanislav Secrieru, Lukasz Kulesa, Agnes Nicolescu, and Anita Sobják
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
With the global economic downturn and its implications for the broader political and security architecture of the EU, the Polish—Romanian Strategic Partnership signed in 2009 is now ripe to take the positive relationship to a new level and to be further fleshed out. To this end, political coordination needs to be upgraded for promoting common interests, such as economic stability and solidarity within the Union, continued support to agriculture and cohesion policy as an important priority for EU funding, increasing the energy security of the region, engaging the neighbourhood, particularly Moldova and Ukraine, and maintaining the relevance of CSDP and of article 5 of the Washington Treaty high on the European agenda. The management of instability and protracted conflicts in their neighbourhood are also among their shared concerns. Translating these common priorities into concrete actions should aim at pushing the "turbo button" on the partnership, and help both countries achieve their goals.
Topic:
Security, Debt, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

246. The Search for an Exit from the Poland–Belarus Deadlock on Small Border Traffic

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A Polish–Belarusian agreement on small border traffic (SBT) could revive border trade and open new opportunities for regional cooperation. The Belarusian authorities, however, do not want the agreement to enter into force and treat it as a form of pressure on Warsaw. Poland may attempt to influence a change in this position by indicating the potential benefits to the Belarusian economy as well as to border areas if the agreement is implemented and noting the high level of support among residents who live there.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Border Control
Political Geography:
Ukraine

247. Is Moldova Tired of Being the Success Story of the Eastern Partnership?

Author:
Anita Sobják
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Despite months of internal political wrangling, Moldova seems to be making steady progress in its Association Agreement with the EU. But the domestic political crisis has revealed many truths about both Moldova's European policy and the EU's transformative power. As such, the road to the EU remains murky as long as several variables remain in place: the ongoing tensions in the governing alliance, lower public support for European integration in Moldova, and Russia's re-emerging leverage via Transnistria. That is why Poland, together with its partners, should look for new ways to keep Moldova as the pacesetter of the Eastern Partnership.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

248. Ripping into TTIP? Debates Surrounding the Upcoming EU–U.S. Negotiations

Author:
Maya Rostowska
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The outcome of negotiations for a transatlantic trade deal depends largely on the stance of politicians and stakeholders in the EU and the U.S. An overview of the debate on either side of the Atlantic reveals both sides' respective interests and suggests which areas will prove particularly difficult to negotiate. These include public procurement provisions, data privacy, agricultural issues, and the financial services sector.
Topic:
Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States

249. Implementation of the Santiago Principles for Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Progress Report

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
At the annual meeting of the International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds (IFSWF) held in Oslo, Norway on October 2-3, 2013, the forum reviewed and subsequently released its second report on members' experiences in the application of the Santiago Principles for sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). The Santiago Principles were adopted by a group of countries with such funds in September 2008 in response to concerns about threats to political, economic, and financial security in countries receiving SWF investments. The objective was to promote the transparency and accountability of SWFs for the countries of origin as well as the countries in which the funds were investing.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
Political Geography:
Norway, Latin America, and Santiago

250. Five Challenges for Janet Yellen at the Federal Reserve

Author:
David J. Stockton
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Janet Yellen, who will serve as the 15th chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System after her likely confirmation in December 2013, has the experience, intelligence, and judgment to be an excellent successor to Ben S. Bernanke. But she will need to employ all those strengths, and then some, to deal with the challenges facing the nation's central bank. Her success in confronting these challenges will profoundly affect the United States and world economies. Five key challenges await her.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States