Content Type: Policy Brief / Publication Year: within 10 Years

3201. NAFTA Termination: Legal Process in Canada and Mexico

Author:: Tetyana Payosova, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Euijin Jung
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The mechanics of US withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have been widely explored, with an emerging consensus among legal experts that President Donald Trump does have the authority to pull out of the accord. This Policy Brief examines the legal procedures in Canada and Mexico in the event that either country decides to withdraw or terminate NAFTA. Relative to the United States, Canada and Mexico have clearer legal procedures. To terminate NAFTA in Canada, the Department of International Trade would send the notice to withdrawal upon approval by the Cabinet and the Order in Council. In Mexico, the president can notify withdrawal from NAFTA under Article 2205, following Senate approval. To raise tariffs to the MFN level, Canada requires amendment of federal statutes that requires passage in both chambers of the Parliament through regular procedures. To raise its tariffs, Mexico requires a bill to amend federal legislation that has the approval of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies.
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Canada and Mexico

3202. How to Solve the Greek Debt Problem

Author:: Jeromin Zettelmeyer et al
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Greece’s debt currently stands at close to €330 billion, over 180 percent of GDP, with almost 70 percent owed to European official creditors. The fact that Greece’s public debts must be restructured is by now widely accepted. What remains controversial, however, is the extent of debt relief needed to make Greece’s debt sustainable.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Greece

3203. IMF Quota and Governance Reform Once Again

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Once again, the United States and other members of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been asked to address the adequacy of IMF financial resources and the distribution of voting power in the Fund. Observers are justified in thinking that they just witnessed this drama. IMF members completed an agreement on the size of IMF quota resources and governance—or voting power—reform in November 2010. As part of that agreement on the 14th general review of IMF quotas, members committed to bring forward the completion of the 15th general review of quotas to January 2014. The target was not met because the United States delayed approving the 2010 agreement until December 2015, which was necessary for the implementation of the 14th review. As a result, in December 2016, the governors of the IMF freshly resolved to complete the 15th review by the spring of 2019 or the fall of 2019 at the latest.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3204. The Case for Raising de minimis Thresholds in NAFTA 2.0

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Euijin Jung, and (Lucy) Lu Zhiyao
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The fraught negotiations over revising the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have focused largely on US demands to limit imports from Canada and Mexico. But one little discussed step could help the United States increase exports to Canada and Mexico in a way the Trump administration ought to support. US express shipments to its NAFTA partners are far below potential, partly due to what are called low de minimis thresholds in those countries. The de minimis threshold refers to the value of imported goods below which no duty or tax is collected, and the customs declaration is very simple.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3205. Can a Country Save Too Much? The Case of Norway

Author:: Joseph Gagnon
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Many countries have squandered their natural resource endowments. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank routinely hector developing economies to save and invest more of their revenues from resources such as oil and gold for the benefit of future generations after the resources run out. But, can a country save too much of its resource revenues? Gagnon argues that since the first capital transfers to its Government Pension Fund Global in 1996, Norway has saved more than was needed to raise consumption of all generations equally. Norway’s excess saving imposes a cost on the rest of the world during periods of weak aggregate demand and ultralow interest rates. Gagnon proposes a counterfactual saving policy that would have increased Norway’s household consumption by nearly 9 percent on average from 1996 through 2017. The proposed policy would have reduced Norway’s current account surplus by more than one-third, or $13 billion per year on average, from 1996 through 2017. Even now, Norway could raise current consumption by more than US$2,000 per capita, while keeping the contribution of oil wealth to future generations equally large.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Norway

3206. Five Reasons Why the Focus on Trade Deficits Is Misleading

Author:: Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: President Trump has asserted that trade balances are a key measure of a nation’s commercial success and that large US trade deficits prove that past trade approaches have been flawed. But trade deficits are not in fact a good measure of how well a country is doing with respect to its trade policies. Many of the assumptions on which the administration’s beliefs rest are not supported by the evidence. This Policy Brief argues that trade deficits are not necessarily bad, do not necessarily cost jobs or reduce growth, and are not a measure of whether foreign trade policies or agreements with other countries are fair or unfair. Efforts to use trade policy and agreements to reduce either bilateral or overall trade deficits are also unlikely to produce the effects the administration claims they will and instead lead to friction with US trading partners, harming the people the policies claim to help
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3207. The Dispute Settlement Crisis in the World Trade Organization: Causes and Cures

Author:: Tetyana Payosova, Gary Clyde Hufbauer, and Jeffrey Schott
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Since its inception in 1995, the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) dispute settlement mechanism has resolved an impressive number of trade disputes and has earned a reputation as the “crown jewel” of the global trading system. Today, however, the mechanism is in crisis. WTO members have failed to negotiate updates to the rulebook, including rules on dispute settlement itself. As a result, the WTO Appellate Body increasingly is asked to render decisions on ambiguous or incomplete WTO rules. Its interpretations of such provisions have provoked charges by the United States and others that binding Appellate Body rulings, which establish precedents for future cases, effectively circumvent the prerogative of member countries to revise the WTO rulebook and thus undercut the national sovereignty of WTO members. For the past few years, US officials have blocked appointments of Appellate Body members to force WTO members to negotiate new rules that address US concerns and limit the scope for judicial overreach. If this problem is not resolved, the Appellate Body soon will not have enough members to review cases and the vaunted WTO dispute settlement system will grind to a halt.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3208. Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?

Author:: Olivier Blanchard, Christopher G. Collins, Mohammad R Jahan-Parvar, and Thomas Pellet
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Immediately following the US presidential election in November 2016, many economists were concerned that increased uncertainty over economic policy would lead to a decline in the US stock market. From the time of the election to the end of 2017, however, the stock market, as measured by the Standard and Poor's (S&P) 500 index, increased by about 25 percent. Price swings since then have led investors and economists to increasingly ask: Was the stock market rise justified by an increase in actual and expected future dividends, or did it reflect unhealthy price developments, which may reverse in the future?
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Global Markets

3209. The New Tax Law’s Impact on Inequality

Author:: William R Cline
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The centerpiece of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 is the reduction in the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent. The Joint Committee on Taxation has estimated the net revenue loss from the tax overhaul at $1 trillion over the next decade. The underlying premise of the legislation is that lower corporate taxes will spur growth, with trickle-down wage benefits that spread the resulting economic gains.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3210. China Needs Better Credit Data to Help Consumers

Author:: Martin Chorzempa
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Formidable barriers stand between the modern financial system and the hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens still using costly informal credit. For many, the financial data that could be used to give them a credit score that would lead to a fair priced loan exist but are not being used. This analysis finds that the most difficult barriers cutting these data off from their potential use for greater financial inclusion are the legal and political restrictions on data sharing and use, economic and competitive concerns from data holders, and the technical difficulty of integrating disparate systems. Policies that encourage coordination between public authorities and private actors in finance and technology can go a long way towards making these data available and driving access to credit in China. This shift would not only help borrowers: It would also encourage the needed economic rebalancing towards consumption, increase competition in the financial sector, raise efficiency through better credit allocation, and contribute to sustainable economic growth and social welfare.
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3211. Earmarked Revenues: How the European Union Can Learn from US Budgeting Experience

Author:: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Few challenges facing the European Union—immigration pressures, the need to decrease security dependence on an increasingly erratic United States, and the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union (Brexit)—are compelling EU leaders to consider overhauling the revenue side of the European Union’s existing budget. To deal with these challenges in the future, the European Union will need resources—at a time when Europeans are increasingly skeptical about the effectiveness of budget-making in Brussels. Longstanding US budgetary procedures of trust fund accounting and earmarking government revenue towards specific priorities can provide a template for European policymakers. Shifting the EU budget towards more earmarked resources would reduce distrust among taxpayers by limiting Brussels’ spending discretion while focusing expenditures on specific challenges facing the European project.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

3212. Putting Georgia on the 2018 NATO Summit Agenda

Author:: Wojciech Lorenz
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Russia’s annexation of Crimea triggered a shift in NATO’s policy towards Georgia. NATO moved from mainly political support for Georgia’s NATO membership aspirations to enhanced practical military cooperation. Although it might be more difficult for Russia to coerce its small neighbour, the lack of visible progress on the path to NATO membership may weaken Georgian morale and lead to a reversal of democratic gains. Hence, it is important that during the 2018 NATO Summit in Brussels the Allies offer additional support to help Georgia increase its resilience.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Georgia

3213. Austria in Central Europe: The Aspiration to Become a Bridge-Builder

Author:: Łukasz Ogrodnik
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Austria’s government has declared it will be a bridge-builder in the European Union between its western and eastern members. This is in fact rather more an endorsement of the Union cohesion on the eve of Austria’s presidency of the EU Council than a genuine offer to represent the Visegrad states’ interests in the EU. Vienna is also trying to strengthen its position in Central Europe using regional cooperation initiatives such as the Slavkov Triangle, Three Seas Initiative, and the V4+ format. However, Austria’s pro-Russia stances and economic conflicts of interest have burdened relations with regional partners. Common goals remain limited but include the development of transport infrastructure, an endorsement of the European integration of the Western Balkans and strengthening the EU’s external borders.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Austria

3214. Towards a “New Era” in China’s Great Power Diplomacy

Author:: Justyna Szczudlik
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In his first term, Chinese leader Xi Jinping abandoned Deng Xiaoping’s foreign policy dictum of “keeping a low profile.” But China’s activism in the middle of Xi’s first term was still more reactive than creative. However, in the last two years a new phase of diplomacy has emerged, in which all actions are subordinated to China’s unchanging strategic foreign policy goal of regaining its superpower status. This means that China strives to enforce change in the global system, which is dominated by the West.[1] The PRC is already trying to introduce new standards for international relations and promotes its values and principles more aggressively worldwide. There are already examples that Xi is effectively implementing his ideas.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: China

3215. Four reasons why Denmark should speak up about lethal autonomous weapons

Author:: Johannes Lang, Robin May Schott, and Rens van Munster
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Formal UN discussions have begun to address how the international community should regulate the development and use of lethal autonomous weapons – also known as ‘killer robots’. Denmark has so far chosen not to participate in these discussions, but there are good reasons to get involved.
Topic:: International Affairs and Weapons
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3216. Five things to consider in Sierra Leone's House of Cards

Author:: Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Elections in Sierra Leone will not change the circumstances that have led to war in the country – and already marginalized citizens stand to lose. The greatest concern is not the election, but the deep-seated patronage networks that govern the country.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Sierra Leone

3217. Failure to define killer robots means failure to regulate them

Author:: Johannes Lang, Rens van Munster, and Robin May Schott
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Disagreements on how to define “autonomy” are stalling formal UN discussions on the compliance of autonomous weapons with international humanitarian law. A pragmatic approach that focuses on the weapon’s critical functions, such as target selection and firing, can help move discussions forward in the future.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3218. Armed groups are here to stay

Author:: Jairo Munive and Finn Stepputat
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Armed non-state actors are significant players in most conflicts. The international community is often forced to engage with them in order to secure humanitarian aid for civilians or to end armed political conflicts. The question of when and how to engage is being debated. We suggest a more pragmatic approach.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3219. Scope and Structure of German Official Development Assistance: Trends and Implications for the BMZ and Other Ministries

Author:: Michael Bohnet, Stephan Klingebiel, and Paul Marschall
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The structure of German Official Development Assistance (ODA) is in a state of transition. Germany’s growing international role, the increasing importance of climate issues as well as the refugee crisis are contributing greatly to a significant increase in German ODA, which has more than doubled since 2012 and amounted to around EUR 22 billion in 2017. The coalition agreement between the CDU/CSU and the SPD in 2018 has prioritised ODA-eligible expenditures and views development policy as a priority area. Significant changes can also be seen with regard to the scope and pattern of ODA expenditures
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Germany

3220. Unfinished Business: An Appraisal of the Latest UNDS Reform Resolution

Author:: Max Otto Baumann and Silke Weinlich
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Can the United Nations Development System (UNDS) become a resourceful, well-organised partner for member states in implementing the 2030 Agenda? The UNDS is the biggest multilateral development actor, accounting for $18.4 billion, or 33 per cent, of multilateral aid in 2015. Its functions range from providing a forum for dialogue, decision-making and norm-setting, to research, advocacy, technical assistance and humanitarian aid. Numerous governments, including those of high-income countries, are counting on the UN’s assistance for advancing their development in a sustainable way. More than any other development organisation, the UNDS needs to adjust in order to fulfil these expectations. In May 2018, UN member states set the course for reforming the UNDS by agreeing on a draft resolution. The resolution contains five potentially transformative decisions that will bring the UNDS a step closer to being “fit for purpose”, the term under which the reform process was initiated more than three years ago. The global structures of the UNDS are to be strengthened, making the system more strategic and accountable; Resident Coordinators are to coordinate more effectively and objectively; their funding will be guaranteed by a new 1 per cent levy on tightly earmarked contributions; common business operations are to be advanced, with potential efficiency gains of $380 million per year; and the UN’s vast network of country offices is to be consolidated for more efficiency and effectiveness.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3221. Data for Development: An Agenda for German Development Cooperation

Author:: Claudia Schwegmann and Sarah Holzapfel
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Data is a central but underestimated prerequisite for the realisation of the 2030 Agenda. Although technical innovations such as smartphones or the internet of things have led to a data explosion in recent years, there are still considerable gaps in the availability and use of data in developing countries and development cooperation (DC) in particular. So far it is not possible to report regularly on the majority of the 230 indicators of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Topic:: International Affairs and International Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3222. Access to Environmental Information: A Driver of Accountable Governance in Morocco and Tunisia?

Author:: Annabelle Houdret, Irene Pasqua, and Saâd Filali Meknassi
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In Tunisia, Morocco and other North African countries, en¬vironmental problems increasingly lead to political protest. Industrial pollution and a lack of clean drinking water adversely impact the living conditions and income op¬portunities of already marginalised groups and trigger unrest. Environmental governance in the region is often highly centralised, and takes no consideration of the needs of the citizens in the use of natural resources. In a political context that remains unstable following the 2011 uprisings, the double challenge of mounting environmental problems and related social unrest calls for new approaches. Reinforcing accountable environmental governance could help, not only by addressing environmental problems and needs, but by contributing to the overall transformation of societal relationships towards more democratic (i.e. transparent, accountable and participative) governance in the longer term.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: North Africa

3223. EU Engagement with Africa on Migration: A Change of Approach Required

Author:: Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Migration was an important issue at the November African Union (AU)-European Union (EU) summit. While the tone of discussion was somewhat improved on that of recent years, divisions between the two continents remain great. Europe and Africa still have fundamentally different positions in relation to migration, with the EU and many European member states prioritising prevention and return, while African governments focus more on remittances and legal migration opportunities. However, Europe’s current approach does not acknowledge these differing interests and instead seeks to impose its own agenda in ways that threaten to undermine important African ambitions. In recent years, the EU has launched initiatives aimed at curbing migration from Africa that have caused significant controversy, notably the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF) and the Migration Partnership Framework (MPF). These initiatives suffer from a number of weaknesses. The EUTF is based on the flawed premise that development assistance can prevent migration. It diverts aid to migration goals, and its projects often do not comply with development principles such as transparency, ownership and alignment. Meanwhile, the MPF seeks to use positive and negative incentives across a range of external action areas to encourage partners to cooperate with the EU’s migration goals – primarily on prevention and return. So far, results have been limited and it has soured relations with some partner countries.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

3224. Do Trade Deals Encourage Environmental Cooperation?

Author:: Jean-Frédéric Morin, Vera Chaudhuri, and Mathilde Gauquelin
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Trade agreements have mixed effects on the environment. On the one hand, trade generates additional pollution by raising production levels. Trade rules can also restrict the capacity of governments to adopt environmental regulations. On the other hand, trade agreements can favour the diffusion of green technologies, make production more efficient and foster environmental cooperation. Whether the overall effect is positive or negative partly depends on the content of the trade agreement itself. Recent studies have found that trade agreements with detailed environmental provisions, in contrast to agreements without such provisions, are associated with reduced levels of CO2 emission and suspended particulate matter (Baghdadi et al., 2013; Zhou, 2017). It remains unclear, however, which specific provisions have a positive environmental impact and how they are actually implemented.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3225. From Damage Control to Sustainable Development: European Development Policy under the Next EU Budget

Author:: Svea Koch, Niels Keijzer, Christine Hackenesch, and Julian Bergmann
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The EU is one of the leading global players in international development, trade, peace and security. Therefore, a key part of the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) is the one reserved for action beyond EU’s borders. This budget heading is called ‘Global Europe’ (also referred to as Heading IV). Under the current budget for the period of 2014 to 2020, including the inter-governmental European Development Fund (EDF), over 90 billion euros are available for the EU’s external action. The lion’s share of this is reserved for development cooperation. In previous years, the EU has dealt with new challenges in external action mostly by creating specific initiatives and new financial instruments. At the start of the negotiations on the next MFF, Heading IV thus appears to be rather complex and fragmented compared to other headings.
Topic:: International Affairs and International Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3226. A European Peace Facility Could Make a Pragmatic Contribution to Peacebuilding around the World

Author:: Mark Furness and Julian Bergmann
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The question of how the EU should finance peacebuilding in developing countries has challenged policy-makers and pundits for many years. At one level this is a technical and legal issue of budget lines and financing rules. It nevertheless touches on the much deeper political and even moral issues of whether the EU should use development aid to finance security provision, how best the EU can respond to the legitimate needs of partners in conflict-affected countries and what kind of civil and/or military engagements the EU can support as part of its external relations. The question has come to resemble the proverbial can being kicked along the road by successive European Commissioners, Council working groups and parliamentary committees. It has come to a head again because intra-EU negotiations for the next Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021-2027 are starting in earnest. This time, a sensible proposal is on the table which can potentially provide a pragmatic and workable solution, at least for a while.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

3227. How to Identify National Dimensions of Poverty? The Constitutional Approach

Author:: Francesco Burchi
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: With the signing of the 2030 Agenda, the international community has committed to ending poverty in all its forms. This first Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) recognises poverty as a multidimensional phenomenon that goes beyond the simple lack of a sufficient amount of income. However, the way the SDG 1 and, in particular, Target 1.2 – “reduce … poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions” – are formulated poses challenges for its operationalisation. Which specific dimensions of poverty should a country focus on? How can we identify them? Is it possible to agree on a universal set of dimensions with which to compare poverty across several countries?
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3228. From Urban Fragility to Urban Stability

Author:: Stephen Commins
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The growing share of Africa’s urban residents living in slums is creating a further source of fragility. In response, some cities are implementing integrated urban development strategies that link local government, police, the private sector, and youth to strengthen social cohesion and enhance stability.
Topic:: International Affairs, Urbanization, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Africa

3229. The Maghreb’s Fragile Edges

Author:: Anouar Boukhars
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Persistent economic and social disparities between urban centers and outlying communities present an ongoing source of instability for countries in the Maghreb.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Maghreb

3230. Trump, Xi and the eclipse of the liberal world order

Author:: Andreas Bøje Forsby
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Until recently, we were operating under the assumption that the liberal world order would prove sufficiently inclusive, productive and resilient to serve as a stable framework for international cooperation. But such optimism seems increasingly unwarranted as a wide host of existential challenges have materialized, including the return of geopolitics, the resurgence of autocratic leadership, the revival of economic protectionism and the rising tide of populism and nationalism.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America

3231. Fighting Military Corruption in Fragile States

Author:: Louise Riis Andersen
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Anti-corruption is central to building capable and legitimate security institutions in fragile states. However, military capacity-building programs often do not include anti-corruption measures. Denmark should strive to put the fight against military corruption on the international agenda
Topic:: Corruption, International Affairs, and Global Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3232. Encryption Policy in Democratic Regimes

Author:: Tony Bricktua and Abigail Lawson
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: Report Recommends Approaches to Meet Needs of Law Enforcement While Managing Risks to Cybersecurity and Privacy
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3233. Environmental Challenges in a Conflictive Environment

Author:: Wael Abdul-Shafi and Jan Hanrath
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: The repercussions of climate change and environmental challenges pose enormous risks to Iran and Saudi Arabia alike. While there are differences in geography and climate in both countries, they also have many environmental challenges in common. Problems such as sand and dust storms or diminishing water resources are border-crossing phenomena that no country can deal with alone; therefore, cooperation is key. At this point in time, however, willingness to cooperate is utterly lacking in a region marked by geo-strategic rivalries, ongoing military conflicts and deep-rooted mutual distrust between regional rivals, and between Saudi Arabia and Iran in particular.
Topic:: Environment and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3234. EU cyber partnerships: Assessing the EU strategic partnerships with third countries in the cyber domain

Author:: Thomas Renard
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The European Union is increasingly active on cyber issues internationally, guided by its various foreign policy documents and strategies, including its 2013 Cybersecurity Strategy and the 2015 Council conclusions on cyber-diplomacy. In line with these documents, the EU has deepened its bilateral ties with a number of key countries, resulting in a network of cyber partnerships. This article explores these partnerships in depth. It seeks to explain the different types of purposes that they fulfil, and the various mechanisms that underpin them, based on an ambitious mapping exercise. In essence, it is argued that the EU’s cyber partnerships aim not only for bilateral cooperation, but also for ‘reflexive’ results (whereby the EU aim to develop its cyber and diplomatic agency) and ‘structural’ results (whereby bilateral partnerships aim to strengthen the multilateral fabric and global internet governance). Once assessed against these multiple and intertwined purposes, these cyber partnerships appear more useful than meets the eye.
Topic:: International Security and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Europe

3235. Returnees: who are they, why are they (not) coming back and how should we deal with them? Assessing policies on returning foreign terrorist fighters in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands

Author:: Thomas Renard and Rik Coolsaet
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Some 5000 men, women and children have travelled from Europe to Syria and Iraq since 2012. An estimated 1500 of these foreign terrorist fighters (FTF) have returned so far. Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands represent a third of European FTF and returnees. This report looks into the evolution of policies on returning foreign fighters in these three countries, comparing responses with regard to fighters that are still in the conflict zone, policies to deal with returnees in prison and attitudes towards the children of foreign fighters. It is the very first systematic and in-depth study into national approaches and policies vis-à-vis returnees. Its added value lies in the wealth of data, including data that has not been published before, and in the comparative angle.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Affairs, and Refugees
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3236. Large-Scale Farms and Smallholders: Evidence from Zambia

Author:: Jann Lay, Kerstin Nolte, and Kacana Sipangule
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: In light of the surge in large‐scale farms in developing countries, concerns have been raised that smallholders may be negatively affected. There is, however, very little evidence beyond case studies to support these claims. Drawing on nationally representative house‐ hold data sets and an inventory of large‐scale farms in Zambia, this study investigates the relationship between large‐scale farms and smallholders. First, we analyse the geograph‐ical contexts of wards that host large‐scale farms and show that large‐scale farms are found in wards with good infrastructure and soil quality. Second, we adopt a difference‐ in‐differences approach to estimate the impacts of large‐scale farms on smallholders’ area cultivated, maize yields, and access to fertiliser. We find that smallholders in wards with large‐scale farms increase their area cultivated and maize yields, but have lower fertiliser usage. This hints at positive spillovers at the extensive and intensive margins but not at improved access to agricultural inputs. It is likely that these results are also driven by the emergence of medium‐scale farms in these regions.
Topic:: International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Zambia

3237. EU's PESCO: A new foreign policy instrument or the same old story?

Author:: Amal Cemal Ertürk
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: Since the end of World War II, foreign policy and security issues have haunted the European dreams of complete integration in terms of alignment in a highly challenging field, which is also constantly interrupted by sovereignty concerns of member states. Within today’s changing dynamics, the EU’s current instruments seem to fall short of preventing terrorism or providing a meaningful answer to the problems in the Middle East. The EU’s capacity to act in this field needs to be strengthened. The newest approach presented by the European External Action Service (EEAS) is called PESCO (the Permanent Structured Cooperation) and aims to change this current structure of “inactivity”. This short paper will briefly analyze this new instrument.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

3238. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and geopolitical tension between Egypt and Ethiopia with Sudan in the mix

Author:: Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi indicated in a televised broadcast on 16 January, 2018 that his country neither wants war with Sudan nor Ethiopia; Egypt was also not looking to meddle in the internal affairs of these two countries. These pronouncements came at the backdrop of what is proving to be a challenge for these three countries, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the largest hydro-electric dam project in Africa. This policy brief gives a snapshot of the brewing tension surrounding the GERD and some of the regional geopolitical concerns as well as an alternative for a workable solution.
Topic:: International Relations and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: Ethiopia

3239. Failure to Protect Syria: will the UN Security Council invoke R2P ever again?

Author:: Çağlar Açıkyıldız
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: The events in Syria since the beginning of the conflict in 2011 have been a source of concern for the international community. The ongoing civil war has caused many military and civilian casualties. Reports on the state of the country indicate that both government forces and rebels have committed both crimes against humanity and war crimes. What began as a crisis in March 2011, turned into a civil war between the Syrian government and armed opposition groups and has resulted in over 465,000 deaths. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), as of April 2017, there were more than 5 million Syrian refugees and at least 6.3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). Over 13.5 million Syrians remain in dire need of humanitarian assistance, with 4.5 million people in inaccessible areas, including at least 419,900 people trapped in 10 besieged communities. Besides, Islamic State has been very effective in the country especially since 2014. The Islamic State took control of some land and equally committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. Therefore, Syria demonstrates a clear case of a state unable or unwilling to protect its own citizens; hence, enough ground to invoke Responsibility to Protect (R2P) to save civilian lives in Syria. However, it is difficult to assume that the international community has a solution to the problem. In this paper, the validity of the R2P and problems of its implementation in the Syrian case are discussed.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Syria

3240. Humanitarian Action and Sustaining Peace

Author:: Alice Dabarre
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: While humanitarian action was traditionally designed to be a short-term emergency response, this is increasingly perceived as inaccurate and even undesirable. Humanitarian actors have acknowledged a responsibility to work toward bridging the “humanitarian-development divide” and not to overlook the nexus between addressing and reducing humanitarian needs and building the foundations for sustaining peace.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3241. Aligning Agendas: Drugs, Sustainable Development, and the Drive for Policy Coherence

Author:: International Expert Group on Drug Policy Metrics
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Current drug policy too often has a negative impact on communities and runs counter to efforts to ameliorate poverty through sustainable development. However, this is often not captured by the metrics used to measure the impact of drug policy. One way to improve these metrics is to align them with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This would not only help overcome many of the limitations of drug policies resulting from suboptimal metrics but also make sure these policies enhance, rather than hinder, efforts to achieve the SDGs.
Topic:: International Affairs and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3242. Toward a New Gambia: Linking Peace and Development

Author:: Lesley Connolly and Cheryl He
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: In December 2016 Gambians took to the polls and successfully replaced longtime president Yahya Jammeh with current President Adama Barrow, ushering in a political transition. More than a year into this transition, the country is at a tipping point. Public expectations remain high, and the list of competing priorities, from increasing economic opportunities to implementing transitional justice, is long.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Gambia

3243. The Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen: Beyond the Man-Made Disaster

Author:: Guillio Coppi
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Two years into its current crisis, Yemen is torn apart by an interlinked series of conflicts with intricate and mobile front lines. These have resulted in what the UN has called “the largest humanitarian crisis in the world.” While compounded by decades of conflict, violence, and underdevelopment, the major cause of the humanitarian crisis in Yemen remains the conflict between the two competing governments, along with the intervention of the Saudi-led coalition.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Yemen

3244. Evaluating mechanisms for investigating attacks on heathcare

Author:: Els Debuf
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: IPI’s research project on mechanisms to investigate attacks on healthcare aims to assist the Security Council, relevant UN organs, member states, and other stakeholders in operationalizing Resolution 2286 and the UN secretary-general’s recommendations for its implementation. The project focuses on recommendations regarding the use of international mechanisms to ensure that the “full, prompt, impartial and effective investigations” required by Resolution 2286 are carried out when parties to the conflict are unable or unwilling to do so themselves. Through a combination of desk research, key informant interviews, and an expert meeting bringing together stakeholders in the implementation of Resolution 2286 and experts on international fact-finding and investigation into violations of international humanitarian law, the project developed a set of tools, available on this page. These include:
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3245. Turkey’s Expansionist Military Policies in the Middle East

Author:: Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: Turkey’s projection of its military presence in the Middle East has become a source of worry to the “moderate” Arab states and specifically to Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

3246. ASEAN @ 50, Southeast Asia @ Risk: What Should Be Done?

Author:: Asia-Pacific Research Center
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: In October 2017, twenty-two scholars from eight countries attended a workshop titled “ASEAN @ 50, Southeast Asia @ Risk: What should be done?” The workshop was designed to facilitate a frank and creative discussion of policy recommendations, with the intention of providing the resulting proposals to ASEAN member states and other regional powers. Following two days of discussion and debate, the attendees produced a series of specific policy recommendations (SPRs).
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Asia

3247. Pursuing Sustainable Development under Sectarianism in Lebanon

Author:: Mona Christophersen
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The 2030 Agenda calls for inclusiveness, which can contribute to stability and peace as well as development in Lebanon. However, while Lebanon’s power-sharing model was instrumental in ending fifteen years of civil war, it is outdated as the country embarks on a process to achieve the 2030 Agenda and advance the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although sectarianism is impeding political processes and development in Lebanon, the SDGs can provide an opportunity for the country to address some of the political model’s limitations. Based on two weeks of field research, this paper explores how Lebanon is confronting challenges related to the environment, education, economic growth, poverty, and gender, all while hosting more than a million Syrian refugees. This paper is part of the International Peace Institute’s (IPI) SDGs4Peace project, which seeks to understand how the 2030 Agenda is being rooted at the national and local levels and to support the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. The project focuses on five case studies: the Gambia, Greece, Guatemala, Lebanon, and Myanmar. Implementation of the 2030 Agenda provides each of these countries an opportunity not only to buttress existing aspirations but also to build new partnerships that transcend traditional approaches.
Topic:: Politics, Sectarianism, Sustainable Development Goals, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

3248. Advancing Sustainable Development between Conflict and Peace in Myanmar

Author:: Mona Christophersen and Svein Erik Stave
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Over the last five years Myanmar has gone through fundamental changes as it transitions toward peace and democracy. This transformation provides Myanmar with a unique opportunity to build a peaceful and inclusive society and advance on the path to sustainable development and sustaining peace. Yet at the same time, Myanmar remains submerged in conflict and lacks national consensus on the future of the state. Achieving the 2030 Agenda in Myanmar will therefore require an inclusive and conflict-sensitive approach that takes into account the views not only of the central government but also of ethnic-minority groups. Based on an eighteen-day field study in Myanmar in 2017, this paper examines the country’s progress toward sustainable development and sustaining peace from these divergent perspectives. This paper, co-funded by the Fafo Research Foundation, is part of the International Peace Institute’s (IPI) SDGs4Peace project, which seeks to understand how the 2030 Agenda is being rooted at the national and local levels and to support the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. The project focuses on five case studies: the Gambia, Greece, Guatemala, Lebanon, and Myanmar. Implementation of the 2030 Agenda provides each of these countries an opportunity not only to buttress existing aspirations but also to build new partnerships that transcend traditional approaches.
Topic:: Development, Sustainable Development Goals, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia and Myanmar

3249. Greening Peacekeeping: The Environmental Impact of UN Peace Operations

Author:: Lucile Maertens and Malkit Shoshan
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, triggered by the UN mission there, killed more than 9,000 people and affected nearly 807,000. This disastrous case drew attention to the negative effect UN peace operations can have on the surrounding communities and environment—something peacekeepers had started paying attention to with the deployment of new large-scale operations in the 2000s. As operations have grown in size, so too has the size of their environmental footprint. This report looks at the environmental impact of peace operations and how the UN has responded, including through policies and guidelines, dedicated staff, and training material. In particular, it assesses the challenges the Department of Field Support faces in implementing its Environment Strategy. Based on this assessment, which includes a detailed examination of the UN mission in Mali, the report puts forward a series of short-, medium-, and long-term recommendations. It concludes that a UN presence should not be a source of stress but should improve local environmental sustainability and build resilience.
Topic:: Environment, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, and Global Focus

3250. Neighborhood Dynamics in UN Peacekeeping Operations, 1990–2017

Author:: Paul D. Williams and Thong Nguyen
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The last decade has seen more UN peacekeepers than ever before coming from countries neighboring the host state. This report uses the IPI Peacekeeping Database to explore this increase in neighborhood contributions between 1990 and 2017. While less than 3 percent of all UN peacekeepers came from next-door neighbors in the early 1990s, this number had increased to about 20 percent by 2017. This trend runs counter to a longstanding, if unwritten, principle that UN peacekeeping missions should seek to avoid deployment of troops or police from neighbors in order to mitigate the risks associated with these countries’ national interests in the host countries. It also means there would be significant implications if policymakers wished to reverse this trend, which would put major additional pressure on the UN’s force generation process.
Topic:: United Nations, History, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3251. A Poisoned Well: Lessons in Mediation from South Sudan’s Troubled Peace Process

Author:: Zach Vertin
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: In 2013, the world’s newest nation—the Republic of South Sudan—descended into civil war. External actors moved quickly to convene peace talks under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), leading to a comprehensive peace deal in August 2015. But the agreement unraveled just a year later, before it could be implemented, and the war metastasized. This paper examines the IGAD-led peace process for South Sudan from 2013 to 2015. Viewed through a prism of mediation best practice, it is a critical assessment of the attempt to negotiate a settlement of the conflict and a distillation of lessons learned. While singular conclusions are hard to draw, the paper concludes that the process may have helped to slow South Sudan’s civil war and provided a platform to confront the fundamental changes required to transform state and society. But inherent flaws meant the peace deal lacked the political will, broad national ownership, and implementing authorities necessary to make it stick. As IGAD member states and international partners now attempt to “revitalize” the peace process, they would be wise to evaluate, and build upon, its lessons.
Topic:: Development, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

3252. How Peacekeeping Policy Gets Made: Navigating Intergovernmental Processes at the UN

Author:: Lisa Sharland
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Partnerships are critical to effective UN peacekeeping, particularly in New York, where the Security Council, the Secretariat, and member states examine proposed reforms and seek consensus on the direction of peacekeeping. Yet throughout the nearly seventy-year history of UN peacekeeping, relations among key stakeholders have frequently fractured due to their often diverging interests. These differences have been compounded by member states’ limited access to information on the roles and responsibilities of different UN bodies in taking forward peacekeeping reforms. This paper examines the intergovernmental processes and partnerships that support and guide the development of UN peacekeeping policy to identify what needs to be considered to build consensus on its future direction. The paper offers several recommendations for the Secretariat, member states, and other stakeholders to strengthen the value and outcomes of intergovernmental processes, as well as the partnerships that guide the formulation of UN peacekeeping policy: Foster understanding of UN peacekeeping challenges and the policymaking process. Strengthen consultation mechanisms. Demonstrate leadership and identify a shared vision. Improve information sharing, reporting, and accountability. Encourage awareness of challenges in the field among stakeholders in New York.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Policy Implementation, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3253. From the Ground Up: UN Support to Local Mediation in Libya

Author:: José S. Vericat and Mosadek Hobrara
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Libya’s overarching statelessness, and the violence and lawlessness that result, permeate the country, which is plagued by local-level conflicts. However, local mediation efforts have flourished over the last few years. As a senior UN official noted, “Local mediation is the best thing that has happened in Libya since the revolution.” This report examines these local mediation processes to explore the significance of their impact. It focuses on the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and the support it provides internal efforts in Libya to solve local conflicts or the mediation of such disputes. It also describes and analyzes how Libyans themselves are able to address and resolve local conflicts, or at least contain their escalation. The report offers a number of lessons based on the challenges UNSMIL has faced in supporting local mediation efforts in Libya. These include the importance of leveraging soft power, taking a coordinated and long-term approach, linking the local and national levels, ensuring sovereignty and local ownership, intervening through local mediators, and expanding beyond traditional political actors.
Topic:: Politics, United Nations, Peace, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Libya and North Africa

3254. The Many Lives of a Peacekeeping Mission: The UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire

Author:: Alexandra Novosseloff
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) completed its mandate on June 30, 2017, after more than thirteen years. One year later, the secretary-general is set to release his “comprehensive study of the role of UNOCI in the settlement of the situation” in the country. This presents an opportunity to examine the many stages or “lives” of a peacekeeping operation, something often overlooked. This report aims not only to contribute to this learning process but also to go beyond the scope of the secretary-general’s study to examine the trajectory of UNOCI over the years. It provides a historical account of the various phases of the Ivorian crisis and examines how UNOCI evolved and adapted to the circumstances and how the Security Council dealt with the Ivorian dossier. Based on this assessment, the report draws lessons from UNOCI for other peacekeeping missions. These include the challenges missions face when the consent of the host state is fragile, a permanent member of the Security Council is heavily involved, they have a mandate to certify elections, they take a robust approach to a crisis, they undertake both disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration and security sector reform processes, and the UN applies sanctions or arms embargoes.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Sanctions, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

3255. The Many Lives of a Peacekeeping Mission: The UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire

Author:: Alexandra Novosseloff
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) completed its mandate on June 30, 2017, after more than thirteen years. One year later, the secretary-general is set to release his “comprehensive study of the role of UNOCI in the settlement of the situation” in the country. This presents an opportunity to examine the many stages or “lives” of a peacekeeping operation, something often overlooked. This report aims not only to contribute to this learning process but also to go beyond the scope of the secretary-general’s study to examine the trajectory of UNOCI over the years. It provides a historical account of the various phases of the Ivorian crisis and examines how UNOCI evolved and adapted to the circumstances and how the Security Council dealt with the Ivorian dossier. Based on this assessment, the report draws lessons from UNOCI for other peacekeeping missions. These include the challenges missions face when the consent of the host state is fragile, a permanent member of the Security Council is heavily involved, they have a mandate to certify elections, they take a robust approach to a crisis, they undertake both disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration and security sector reform processes, and the UN applies sanctions or arms embargoes.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Sanctions, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

3256. Safeguarding Medical Care and Humanitarian Action in the UN Counterterrorism Framework

Author:: Alice Debarre
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: In the past decade, counterterrorism measures have had an increasingly adverse impact on the provision of medical care and the conduct of principled humanitarian action in armed conflict settings. Whether inadvertently or not, they have impeded, and at times prevented, the provision of essential and lifesaving aid, often in violation of international humanitarian law (IHL). This paper aims to assist the Security Council, relevant UN organs, UN member states, and other stakeholders in upholding their obligations under IHL. It maps the UN counterterrorism framework and looks into the extent to which it guides states in complying with these obligations. In doing so, it offers several recommendations for the way forward: All UN resolutions and other UN and national policies that pertain to counterterrorism should contain an exemption for humanitarian activities. Every relevant UN counterterrorism measure should continue to reiterate that counterterrorism efforts need to comply with international law. Humanitarian actors should engage with UN counterterrorism structures more actively, strategically, and systematically. UN bodies that engage in counterterrorism should systematically include humanitarian actors in relevant conversations. The UN Counter-Terrorism Committee’s Executive Directorate and Office of Counter-Terrorism should better integrate IHL considerations into their work. Member states, UN entities, humanitarian actors, counterterrorism and sanctions experts, and other stakeholders should step up efforts to start a wide political discussion on tensions between counterterrorism and humanitarian action.
Topic:: Health, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Violent Extremism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3257. Local Networks for Peace: Lessons from Community-Led Peacebuilding

Author:: Lesley Connolly, Laura Powers, Senzwesihle Ngubane, Patrick Kanyangara, Kessy Ekomo-Soignet, Nicolas Chamat Matallana, Stephen Kirimi, Hasini Haputhanthri, Masana Ndinga-Kanga, and Webster Zambara
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: In recent years, there have been increasing calls to ensure local ownership of peacebuilding design and practice, to take local knowledge fully into account in designing peacebuilding programs and assessing conflicts, and to strive for the meaningful participation of local peacebuilding actors. In the search for new approaches to connect local-level initiatives to international programs and to move local knowledge from the bottom up, community-led peacebuilding networks may have a key role to play. This volume includes case studies of community-led peacebuilding networks in Burundi, the Central African Republic, Colombia, Kenya, Liberia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Zimbabwe to identify approaches for more inclusive and integrated peacebuilding. These case studies, written by local peacebuilders working in each of the countries, underscore the organizational, political, and financial advantages and risks to operating as part of a broader network. The aim of this report is to enhance understanding among international peacebuilding practitioners and policymakers of peacebuilding network structures, including their comparative advantages and challenges. In doing so, it aims to guide efforts not only to incorporate local knowledge and expertise into international initiatives but also to identify how these efforts can support and magnify local efforts. By better understanding how local peacebuilding networks operate in their communities, the international community can begin to better understand the challenges local organizations face, how to support and strengthen peacebuilding work on the ground, and how such initiatives contribute to building and sustaining peace.
Topic:: Civil Society, Women, Youth, Networks, Peace, and Community
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, South Asia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Colombia, Liberia, Zimbabwe, Burundi, and Central African Republic

3258. Engaging with Non-state Armed Groups to Protect Civilians: A Pragmatic Approach for UN Peace Operations

Author:: Ralph Mamiya
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Engaging non-state armed groups (NSAGs) is an essential tool for the protection of civilians (POC), a priority mandate and core objective for peace operations. Beyond the use of force to prevent or stop armed groups from threatening local populations, multidimensional missions can use a wide range of unarmed strategies, such as dialogue and engagement, to counter hostilities from non-state actors. This paper looks at how, when, and why UN missions engage with NSAGs. It gives an overview of current practice, drawing on the experiences of the missions in Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mali. It then examines the risks of engaging NSAGs and how POC mandates can help missions navigate these risks. Finally, it looks at peace operations’ unique capacities to engage with NSAGs and how best to leverage them. Civilian protection is ever more urgent, and engaging NSAGs is crucial to this work. A pragmatic approach, anchored in POC considerations, can help guide missions through potentially polarizing debates and safeguard UN principles while simultaneously allowing them to adapt more effectively to the challenges they face.
Topic:: United Nations, Non State Actors, Peacekeeping, Armed Forces, and Civilians
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, Central Asia, Mali, Central African Republic, and Congo

3259. Protecting Civilians in the Context of Violent Extremism: The Dilemmas of UN Peacekeeping in Mali

Author:: Namie Di Razza
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: In the non-permissive environments where they are often deployed, UN peace operations need to be increasingly creative to implement their mandate to protect civilians. They face particularly acute challenges in contexts marked by violent extremism, such as Mali, where attacks by terrorist groups have greatly constrained the capacity of peacekeepers to protect local populations. This paper explores the operational challenges that the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) faces in implementing its protection mandate. It analyzes protection threats related to violent extremism in Mali and explores the protection strategy, tools, and activities developed by the UN mission to address those threats. It highlights some of the practical constraints of operating in a hostile environment and added complications related to the mission’s proximity to non-UN counterterrorism forces. The Malian case demonstrates that each peacekeeping theater needs to be its own laboratory for POC and that approaches, tools, and mechanisms are not directly replicable from one UN mission to another. The report makes three recommendations to improve the delivery of MINUSMA’s protection mandate: Explore the full spectrum of military, police, and civilian tools; Ensure the independence of MINUSMA’s POC activities from counterterrorism agendas; and Design and articulate a political strategy that prioritizes POC.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Violent Extremism, and Civilians
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

3260. Hard to Reach: Providing Healthcare in Armed Conflict

Author:: Alice Debarre
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Armed conflict is a global health issue. Long-lasting and protracted conflicts in particular have consequences not only for the war-wounded but also for the health of entire communities. Over the years, global health actors and humanitarian health actors have developed health policies, guidelines, frameworks, and structures to improve delivery of health services in emergencies or humanitarian crises. Despite these advancements, however, the international health response in conflict-affected settings still faces gaps and challenges. Some policies and frameworks need to be rethought or redesigned, while others need to be better implemented. This paper explores challenges to healthcare provision in conflict-affected settings. These challenges are broadly broken down into three categories: constraints related to the health system and damaged health infrastructure, difficulty for health workers to access populations in need, and restrictions to healthcare provision intentionally or accidentally placed by donors or states engaged on humanitarian and health issues (e.g., through the securitization of healthcare). Tackling these challenges will have a direct impact on the lives of people in conflict-affected settings. However, doing so requires a radical shift in mindsets and the incentives that guide the actions of international health actors. Even so, more incremental changes can also be beneficial. To that end, this report puts forth the following recommendations: Improve coordination between and among humanitarian, development, and global health actors; Respond to context-specific needs; Hold health actors accountable to affected populations for their performance, and; Make responses sustainable. This work is based on a combination of desk research, interviews with more than seventy key informants, and an expert meeting bringing together key stakeholders and experts on global and humanitarian health.
Topic:: Health, Humanitarian Aid, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3261. The Mission Is Gone, but the UN Is Staying: Liberia’s Peacekeeping Transition

Author:: Daniel Forti and Lesley Connolly
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: From 2003 to 2018, the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) was ever-present throughout the country. The peacekeeping mission’s work, and its transition out of the country, are considered positive examples of how the UN can support countries through conflict and post-conflict phases. Nevertheless, UNMIL’s transition offers many lessons that member states, UN officials, and international partners can learn in order to strengthen future UN peacekeeping transitions. This paper examines the process of Liberia’s transition from a peacekeeping mission to a UN country team configuration, focusing on the period from July 2016 to July 2018. It identifies the political and operational dynamics that drove the transition, examines the policy processes and context within which the transition was executed, and assesses the ability of the UN’s post-mission configuration to sustain peace in Liberia. The paper underscores that member states and the UN Secretariat should change their approach to transitions from racing against deadlines to instead viewing them as processes that begin well before a peacekeeping mission closes and continue for several years after the mission ends. By viewing transitions as long-term, multi-stakeholder activities, member states have the opportunity to ensure that future transitions adopt integrated approaches with adequate political, operational, and financial support.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Peace, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Liberia

3262. Lessons Learned from the UN’s Transition in Côte d’Ivoire

Author:: Alexandra Novosseloff
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: In April 2016, after four years of progressive downsizing, the Security Council decided to close the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) within a year. This decision reflected a consensus that it was time for UNOCI to leave and hand over to the UN country team with no follow-on mission. However, the transition was abrupt, without sustained dialogue, capacity transfer, or financial fluidity, leaving the UN country team unprepared to take on the mission’s responsibilities. This policy paper examines the political dynamics in Côte d’Ivoire and in the Security Council that led to the decision to withdraw UNOCI, as well as the stages of the withdrawal and handover. It also analyzes the gaps and shortcomings that left the country team ill-prepared to take over, highlighting two main challenges. First, the Security Council viewed the transition as a political process. Its objective of withdrawing the mission superseded all others, leading it to underestimate, if not overlook, the continued peacebuilding needs of the country. Second, the transition was accompanied by waning donor interest, undercutting programming by the country team in priority areas like reconciliation, security sector reform, human rights, and land tenure.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, UN Security Council, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

3263. Mission in Transition: Planning for the End of UN Peacekeeping in Haiti

Author:: Namie Di Razza
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The process of reconfiguring, closing, and handing over responsibilities to a UN country team or host-state institutions is a crucial—and challenging—part of the life cycle of a UN peacekeeping mission. Transitions have been a central feature of UN peacekeeping in Haiti, in particular, which has gone through numerous transitions since the 1990s. This paper focuses on the two most recent peacekeeping transitions in Haiti: one from the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) to the UN Mission for Justice Support in Haiti (MINUJUSTH), or from a multidimensional peacekeeping operation involving a substantial military component to a small peace operation focused on police and rule of law; and the ongoing transition toward the closure of MINUJUSTH and preparations for the eventual handover to other actors. For both missions, the paper focuses on three issues: (1) transition planning, including the political dynamics that influenced decision making, gaps between plans and the reality on the ground, and the limited role of the host state, UN country team, civil society, and donors; (2) management, logistical, and administrative challenges; and (3) issues related to business continuity and changes in substantive areas of work. It concludes by offering lessons learned from the past and current transitions that can inform the next drawdown and exit of peacekeepers from Haiti.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Transition
Political Geography:: Caribbean and Haiti

3264. Rethinking Regionalism in Asia: Influence of India’s Pragmatic Ancient Statecraft Arthashastra

Author:: Monika Chansoria
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: India’s rise and consequent role in global politics has oscillated amid terms like emerging power, regional power, global power, and a would-be great power. Primarily pursuing soft power strategies in its immediate and extended region since the Cold War years and earlier, India was and continues to be known for maintaining a policy of strategic autonomy balancing relations with major powers/power blocs. Contrary to the years of the Cold War and immediate post-Cold War period, when it was labeled being rather disinclined to project itself as a power to reckon with, India appears inching, albeit very gradually, toward staking that claim. In doing so, New Delhi is inclined and determined towards forging ‘strategic partnerships’ that are pragmatic and remain best-suited to Indian national interests, based on converging partnerships with shared interests and goals. With dividends such as growing demographic, economic, political, and military status, New Delhi can be described as taking baby steps towards cementing its place as a rising power in the evolving world order. This world order also witnesses the momentous emergence of Chinese military and political power and nearly concurrent decline of America’s policy-oriented and strategic weight to confront China’s rise, especially across the Indo-Pacific. It is this remodeled multipolar architecture which has been instrumental in goading India to employ its distinct blend of hard and soft power, with the objective that its stature and role will not end up being merely tangential.
Topic:: Cold War, Regional Cooperation, History, Power Politics, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: India and Asia

3265. Balkans 360: Southeast Europe Alumni Perspectives on U.S. and German Policy in the Region

Author:: Drew Beck
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:: Over the past twenty-five years, the George C. Marshall Center European Center for Security Studies (GCMC) has provided resident training in security studies to nearly 1,700 officials from Southeast Europe. In addition to providing a host of in-house programs and courses, GCMC experts frequently travel throughout the Balkans, speaking at myriad outreach events with all levels of the academic and professional security community, ranging from junior officers and civil servants to cabinet ministers and parliamentarians. All officials who successfully complete courses at the GCMC become part of an active and multi-faceted alumni network that is formally administered in Garmisch. As part of these alumni programs, a Southeast Europe Regional Alumni Outreach Networking Event (SEE ONE) was held in Garmisch on June 18-22, 2018. Thirty-nine Marshall Center alumni, including senior officials from a variety of professional backgrounds from Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia, attended the three-day event, focusing on internal and external actors and factors for regional security. The GCMC College of International and Security Studies used this gathering to examine the region’s security challenges through the eyes of its regional alumni network within the broader context of U.S. and German engagement in Southeast Europe. This paper summarizes the views of this select group of Marshall Center alumni as well as major takeaways from recent informal and formal talks between GCMC staff and regional actors from teaching trips throughout Southeast Europe.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

3266. Gang Violence as Armed Conflict: A New Perspective on El Salvador

Author:: Anne Applebaum and Briana Mawby
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: Gang violence is usually considered a criminal rather than a conflict issue. This limits the international community’s willingness to mitigate the violence or provide humanitarian aid. In a new GIWPS policy brief, Anna Applebaum and Briana Mawby argue that widespread gang violence, as found in El Salvador, should be considered a new form of armed conflict. The policy brief documents the impact of pervasive gang violence, which is increasingly similar to experiences of war—including high numbers of civilian casualties and significant migration flows. It also makes the case for a focus on gender to strengthen prevention of and responses to gang violence. As in more conventional conflicts, men often hold the most prominent roles in gangs and in the state response. But women frequently serve as care providers for gang members, and they are increasingly involved in tasks related to transporting weapons or drugs. Violence against women is also a specific tactic used by gangs for control over communities. Due to the high levels of gender-based violence, which gangs contribute to, women make up an increasing proportion of those fleeing. Once gang violence is understood as a security issue as well as a criminal phenomenon, it becomes clear that the WPS agenda is relevant.
Topic:: Women, Conflict, Violence, Peace, Gangs, and Gender
Political Geography:: Central America and El Salvador

3267. Connecting Informal and Formal Peace Talks: From Movements To Mediators

Author:: Anjali Dayal
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: Women have been historically absent in formal negotiations and peace processes. However, their participation in informal, or Track II processes, is significant and well documented. Increasing women’s representation in formal peace negotiations is imperative to fulfilling United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325’s call for women’s full participation at all levels of peacemaking efforts and to promoting sustainable peace. One way to do so would be a concerted effort to link Track I and Track II efforts. A renewed focus from the UN Secretary General on the role of mediators in peace negotiations motivates this policy brief, which calls on the UN to nominate more women mediators, and to create a 1325 directive for all mediators to strengthen connections with civil society and women’s organizations, in order to increase women’s meaningful involvement at all levels of peace processes. Additionally, it points to the need for mediators to better link Track I and II processes.
Topic:: Women, Negotiation, Peace, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3268. Women, Deradicalization, and Rehabilitation: Lessons from an Expert Workshop

Author:: Rebecca Turkington and Agathe Christien
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: With the rise of violent extremist groups around the world, questions around how to disengage and reintegrate participants from these groups back into their societies have become urgent. To date, most deradicalization programs have been designed for men, and there have been few efforts to create programs that specifically address the needs of women returnees. The underlying assumption that women lack agency permeates legal and policy responses to extremism and can have serious consequences. Though women remain relatively neglected, their participation in violent extremism is only growing. Women represent up to 20% of Western recruits to the Islamic State, and Boko Haram has used female suicide bombers at unprecedented levels. As greater numbers of women are joining extremist groups, failing to investigate and prosecute them upon their return risks creating a dangerous gap in security processes.
Topic:: Security, Women, Radicalization, Rehabilitation, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3269. Reducing Sexual Abuse and Exploitation in UN Peacekeeping Missions: Reforming Data Collection to Inform Action

Author:: Anjali Dayal and Sophie Huvé
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: Sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) by United Nations (UN) peacekeepers is a critical issue. The UN has had a zero-tolerance policy in place since 2003 and has made data on SEA allegations in peace operations publicly available since 2007. This data reveals that peacekeeping missions with civilian protection mandates account for over 95 percent of reported allegations, while missions without such mandates account for under 5 percent. However, gaps and inconsistencies in data collection, reporting, and interpretation make it difficult to draw conclusions from the data alone. We need substantial context and case-specific knowledge to fully interpret the reported numbers. This policy brief makes recommendations to the UN on how to improve data collection and clarify reporting mechanisms, and calls for extensive external investigation to explain the variation in reported cases of SEA.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Reform, Sexual Violence, Data, and Exploitation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3270. Multiethnicity destruction tendencies - Massive resignations of serbian members from the Kosovo Security Force and Serbia's role

Author:: Shpat Balaj and Taulant Boshnjaku
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The Kosovo Security Force (KSF) has become a topic of public debates due to ongoing efforts to upgrade its mandate. Confusion has spread among the public as it remains unclear whether those debates were just political calculations or whether the Kosovo institutions, in cooperation with international partners, are indeed taking concrete steps towards transforming the country. Controversial statements and interpretations of the matter by local and international stakeholders and the diminished debate for a short period of time have all contributed to the complexity of the situation.
Topic:: Security, Bilateral Relations, Armed Forces, Ethnicity, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

3271. Berlin Process: An additional mile toward EU Membership?

Author:: Donika Emini
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The Berlin Process of the Western Balkans (WB) has brought a new era of cooperation in the region. Launched in 2014 at the initiative of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the Berlin Process is conceived as a means for several European Union member states with keen interests in the Western Balkans to engage with the six aspiring Western Balkans countries. The process seeks to keep the EU perspective for the region on the table while putting key EU member states in a mentorship role to steer the region through a transformation that would make it eligible for accession. The process advocates economic growth, increased cooperation and connectivity between the aspirant countries. Since its launch, the Berlin Process has become the only high-level platform of collaboration in the region. In addition, it represents the only high-level political platform that includes diverse stakeholders such as civil society and the business community.
Topic:: Civil Society, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

3272. Kosovo's Participation in Peacekeeping Missions: An effective tool in Foreign Policy

Author:: Donika Marku
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Kosovo’s current isolation and the lack of country’s clear path to membership in key regional and international security organizations and mechanisms such as the United Nations (UN), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Union (EU) has not only frustrated the country’s ability to become part of the global security infrastructure, but it has also held back its chances to participate and contribute to the various peacekeeping missions worldwide.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Peacekeeping, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

3273. Multiethnicity destruction tendencies - Massive resignations of serbian members from the Kosovo Security Force and Serbia's role

Author:: Shpat Balaj and Taulant Boshnjaku
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The Kosovo Security Force (KSF) has become a topic of public debates due to ongoing efforts to upgrade its mandate. Confusion has spread among the public as it remains unclear whether those debates were just political calculations or whether the Kosovo institutions, in cooperation with international partners, are indeed taking concrete steps towards transforming the country. Controversial statements and interpretations of the matter by local and international stakeholders and the diminished debate for a short period of time have all contributed to the complexity of the situation.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, and Ethnicity
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

3274. Corruption in Yemen’s War Economy

Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Corruption, or the abuse of power for private gain, has been deeply entrenched in the Yemeni political economy for decades. Over the course of the ongoing conflict, however, as the war has fragmented and regionalized the country, state capture in Yemen has become far more complex. In the war economy, patronage networks are now emerging among previously marginal or unknown figures. The financial involvement of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has extended patronage across national borders. Alleged collusion between Houthi-affiliated importers and officials allied with the internationally recognized Yemeni government indicates patronage networks that potentially cross the frontlines of the war themselves. As greater numbers and a wider variety of actors profit from illicit activity in the war economy, vested economic interests in continued conflict become more entrenched. If state capture is among the main drivers of Yemen’s war economy, then post-conflict recovery must include a strong anti-corruption agenda. Policymakers must begin planning to address corruption as a part of a potential post-conflict strategy. Given the multi-faceted pervasiveness of corruption in Yemen, any anti-corruption agenda must aim to understand the complex configuration of patronage networks in Yemen, to be introduced gradually, and to get the buy-in of as wide a group of Yemenis as possible. Without these basic building blocks, more specific policy changes such as encouraging transparency or reducing conflicts of interest may founder. Corruption has become deeply entrenched in Yemen; any post-conflict anti-corruption agenda must be great in scope and long-term in vision.
Topic:: Corruption, Economics, Government, War, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

3275. Stepping up Synergies of the Danish Comprehensive Approach: The Peace and Stabilization Fund

Author:: Jessica Larsen and Christine Nissen
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The Danish Peace and Stabilisation Fund is a prime example of how to combine civilian and military instruments to address conflicts in fragile states. However, there is still room for stepping up synergies of the military-civilian balance in Denmark’s comprehensive conflict management. Recommendations ■ Increase the frequency of formal feedback between the field and the strategic level of the PSF to avoid loss of knowledge. ■ Synergies between civilian and military instruments should take place through complimentary-but-separate interventions. ■ Take PSF instruments into account when planning Denmark’s broader engagement in conflicts to ensure a more comprehensive security policy effort.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Democratization, Development, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

3276. Citizens Engage Local Government: Social Mobilization

Author:: Neil Webster
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The Policy Brief presents the findings and recommendations from a new study of social mobilisation activities in Nepal. The study suggests that the new local government bodies can make a significant difference in bringing better and more inclusive public services and in enabling stronger local economic development. Increased government budgets, better human resources and not least new local elections have changed the conditions for the population. But locally elected representatives need to engage more with citizens and citizens need to engage more with local government. The study suggests that recent experiences with social mobilisation and local governance in Nepal offer important lessons for leaving no one behind in the new context. This policy brief presents the case made by the study, its core findings and the recommendations these give rise to.
Topic:: Development, Poverty, Governance, and Inequality
Political Geography:: South Asia and Nepal

3277. The three stages of China’s ODI development

Author:: Bijang Wang and Kailin Gao
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: In 2016, China became the world’s second-largest outward investor after the United States, with US$196.2 billion of outward direct investment (ODI) flows. China’s foray into ODI developed in three stages, moving from a ‘restricted’ to a ‘relaxed’ and most recently to a ‘regulated’ approach. Today’s strengthened ODI regulations correct imbalanced ODI practices of earlier eras, but some challenges remain. Before 2000, capital shortages prompted China to invite capital inflows and restrict capital outflows. Chinese enterprises had to apply for approval to invest overseas on a case-by-case basis, which minimised overseas investment. By the end of 1999, China ranked 23rd in the world for outward investment with an ODI stock of US$27 billion, representing 0.4 per cent of the global total.
Topic:: Foreign Direct Investment, Investment, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: China and Asia

3278. China and Canada eye more mutually beneficial trade deal

Author:: Dong Yan and Bai Jie
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: A clause in the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact, widely known as a "poison pill" aimed at China, will not stop Canada from continuing to negotiate a free trade agreement with China, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at an event at the National University of Singapore on Thursday. This suggests the US will find it extremely difficult to administer its "poison pill", because it has gone too far in using bullying tactics against other countries－in this case, China.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Canada, Asia, and North America

3279. China Responds to Trade Tensions Responsibly

Author:: Su Qingyi
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: In March 2018, the United States slapped tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum in the name of national security under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Then, the Office of the United States Trade Representative released a report on the investigation of China under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, claiming China’s acts, policies, and practices regarding technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation are “unreasonable and discriminatory, and burden U.S. commerce.” In early April, it issued a list of products imported from China subject to additional tariffs of 25 percent totaling US $50 billion. In June, Donald Trump approved the tariff imposition on US $50 billion worth of Chinese goods, officially starting from Chinese exports worth US $34 billion on July 6. The remaining US $16 billion was to be imposed later. In July, the U.S. issued another trade barrier of 10 percent tariff on imports from China with a value of US $200 billion. On August 1, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the barriers were suggested by President Trump, who ordered to increase the amount to 25 percent.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3280. China can overcome a trade war

Author:: Su Qingyi
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: The tariff war the United States has launched against China shows no sign of abating, as the Donald Trump administration made good its threat to impose 25 percent tariff on another $16 billion worth of Chinese imports on Thursday. Instead, since the US has threatened to slap tariffs on $500 billion worth of Chinese goods, or on almost all Chinese imports, the trade conflict seems set to intensify. Thanks to its national strength and moral righteousness, as well as its objective assessment that the US' tariff war will have a limited impact on the Chinese economy, China is confident and capable of safeguarding the core interests of the country and its people. The trade dispute, however, will affect on three areas－foreign trade, investment (including overseas investment) and the macro-economy. But the impact is likely to be limited and manageable.
Topic:: Economy, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3281. Emerging economies need safeguards to tackle currency crisis

Author:: Gao Haihong
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: The recent appreciation of the US dollar and the uneven pace of monetary policy normalization in many countries have become a headwind for emerging economies. This month, the Turkish lira has sharply depreciated against the US dollar, followed by a jump in Turkish bond yield for fear of high inflation. Earlier this year, after failing to stabilize its currency, Argentina sought the International Monetary Fund's support to stabilize the peso. The IMF agreed to give a $50 billion standby line of credit but on conditions that required necessary domestic fiscal and structural adjustment. These developments reaffirmed the eminent risks facing the emerging economies. A strong dollar and tightened monetary policy in the US are prompting capital flight from countries that have high domestic public debt, huge external liability, and a weak current account balance and relatively open capital account. For example, Turkey’s total external debt to GDP was at 53.5% and its current account deficit was 7.1% to GDP.
Topic:: Economy, Inflation, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: China, Turkey, Asia, Argentina, and United States of America

3282. “Triple punch” policies to bring years of trade tensions

Author:: Su Qingyi
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: US President Donald Trump has adopted a hard-line trade policy and recklessly instigated the trade conflict with China. This is the result of a combination of adjustments to his trade, foreign, and fiscal policies. These intertwined policies will likely stretch China-US trade frictions throughout Trump's presidency. First of all, the adjustment to the trade policy includes a shift from multilateral free trade to regional free trade and pressuring other countries to open their markets.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Markets, Trade Wars, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3283. Opinion: China International Import Expo: New era, shared future

Author:: Su Qingyi
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: The first China International Import Expo (CIIE) will be held from November 5 to 10 in Shanghai. The theme of the CIIE is "New Era, Shared Future," which has rich connotations. The first implication of the new era is that countries around the world begin to realize the importance of imports Economists usually emphasize sellers and exporters when they analyze the exchange between peoples and trade between countries. They tend to attach importance to exports when participating in international trade, and try to promote the growth of export.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:: China and Asia

3284. BRICS Plus: An innovative model for cooperation

Author:: Su Qingyi
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: It has been ten years since the BRICS mechanism was established. During this process, BRICS has undergone two significant improvements. The first is the accession of South Africa in 2011, and the second is promoting the formation of BRICS Plus in 2017. This reveals that BRICS cooperation is a continuous development mechanism. BRICS Plus is the perfection and innovation of the current system. The main body comprises the countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. This is conducive to ensuring the stability and efficiency of the organization’s cooperation. However, the cooperation is an open and inclusive platform.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Trade, and BRICS
Political Geography:: China, India, and South Africa

3285. US tariff measures may boomerang

Author:: Dong Yan
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: US President Donald Trump has launched a tariff war not only against China but also against some other economies and threatened to undermine the multilateral trading system. Apart from China, quite a few other economies have also taken countermeasures to Trump's unilateral and protectionist moves. For instance, Russia plans to impose 25-40 percent tariff on US industrial goods, including equipment for road construction, oil and gas, and mining in response to the US tariffs on Russian metals.
Topic:: Multilateralism, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

3286. Keeping China’s WTO Commitments Clear

Author:: Su Qingyi
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: In terms of fulfillment of WTO (World Trade Organization) commitments, all members of the organization should be treated equally. First of all, China’s WTO accession commitments, which were made when the country was admitted to the organization in 2001, were recorded in three documents, Protocol on the Accession of the People’s Republic of China to the WTO and two reports from the working party on the accession of China to the WTO. The two reports specified China’s promises to open up its services market. And the protocol defined the country’s other promises outside the realm of the services market. Second, after years of China’s accession to the WTO, WTO members should be very clear of China’s compliance with its WTO commitments. For questions as to whether China has opened up in compliance with its commitments, whether it met targets on the time table and whether reforms have been carried out in some areas, the results should be clear. Third, since 2006, WTO has been performing a trade policy review on China every two years. Every WTO member can supervise China’s fulfillment of its WTO commitments within the WTO framework. If any have complaints about China, the two sides can solve the problem within the WTO review mechanism. In fact, the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism can be employed to force China to make readjustments.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, World Trade Organization, Economy, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

3287. China will further open up but not due to US pressure

Author:: Dong Yan
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China will take measures to further open up to the outside world, Xi said in his highly-anticipated keynote address at the Boao Forum for Asia. But amid the escalating China-US trade conflict, some people have wrongly assumed Xi made the remarks with the Trump administration's accusations in mind. But a review of China's policies shows the country will deepen reform and opening-up because of its practical development needs, not because of any other country's demand or coercion. And more importantly, if the US insists on starting a trade war, China's further opening-up policies will not apply to any US enterprises. To people concerned about China's development, Xi's speech must have sounded inspiring, but not surprising, as opening-up has been a development theme for China for the past 40 years.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Trade Wars
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

3288. The Drums of Trade War

Author:: Yu Yongding
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: With Chinese President Xi Jinping willing to make some concessions to the US, the world may yet avoid a trade war. But the reason Sino-American relations have soured is the Trump administration's worldview, not external balances. BEIJING – Last month, US President Donald Trump’s administration fired the opening salvo in what is quickly shaping up to become a full-blown trade war. While trade friction has long been an issue in the Sino-American relationship, few expected such an escalation, not least because economists widely view trade wars as damaging to all parties. So how did we get to this point, and can we turn back before it’s too late? ...... According to the USTR report, the problem is that the policy tools the Chinese government is using to achieve the goals of Made in China 2025 “are largely unprecedented, as other WTO members do not use them.” Moreover, they “include a wide array of state intervention and support designed to promote the development of Chinese industry in large part by restricting, taking advantage of, discriminating against, or otherwise creating disadvantages for foreign enterprises and their technologies, products, and services.” Yet the report fails to identify those interventions, which is not surprising, given that the State Council has not yet specified the policy tools it will use. And while America’s grievances regarding IPR issues are understandable, they could be addressed through the WTO. The fact that the Trump administration has taken the approach it has suggests that it does not merely want to ensure that China complies with existing rules; it wants to prevent China from catching up to the US technologically. This is obviously not acceptable to China.
Topic:: International Relations, Trade Wars, and WTO
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3289. Trade Disputes With China Shoot US In The Foot

Author:: Li Chunding
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: US-China trade friction has intensified, and one excuse that the Trump administration has used for trade protectionism against China is that China has been stealing US jobs, especially in the manufacturing sector. But bilateral trade has nothing to do with unemployment in the US. China itself or trade with China is merely scapegoats. The US is being a fault finder without realizing that the real reasons are internal, and the trade conflict will jeopardize manufacturing jobs on both sides.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Trade Wars, Trade, and Unemployment
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3290. China will further open up but not due to US pressure

Author:: Dong Yan
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China will take measures to further open up to the outside world, Xi said in his highly-anticipated keynote address at the Boao Forum for Asia. But amid the escalating China-US trade conflict, some people have wrongly assumed Xi made the remarks with the Trump administration's accusations in mind. But a review of China's policies shows the country will deepen reform and opening-up because of its practical development needs, not because of any other country's demand or coercion. As for the expansion of imports, China shifted its focus from exports to striking the right balance between imports and exports long ago, because the increase in imports will offer more choices to Chinese consumers and help improve their living standards, aside from giving foreign companies easier access to the Chinese market.
Topic:: Markets, Trade Wars, and Imports
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3291. Trump creating trouble for US firms

Author:: Su Qingyi
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China has urged World Trade Organization members to uphold the multilateral trading system, and oppose the use of Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 by the United States as it severely violates WTO rules. Three experts share their views with China Daily on the developments and consequences of the Donald Trump administration's protectionist moves. Generally speaking, how international trade would develop, now that China has been forced to take up the gauntlet thrown down by the Trump administration, mainly depends on the US. Once the US ceases fire and returns to the negotiating table, China would be more than happy to hold talks with it. With successful and fruitful negotiations, the ongoing trade conflict would be resolved. But if the US refuses to resolve the issue through dialogues, the trade conflict would most likely prolong to the agony of both sides.
Topic:: Trade Wars, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, North America, and United States of America

3292. Digital Fiat Currency, SDR and New Cross-Border Payment System

Author:: Liu Dongmin and Song Shuang
Publication Date:: 03-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: Emerging economies have played more and more important roles in the world, and have become a significant drive in the reform of global financial governance to push it towards the direction of inclusiveness and resilience. As a key part of the international financial architecture, the dollarized cross-border payment system has not been changed correspondingly. Along with the rapid development of digital currency, the digital fiat currency (DFC) endorsed by national credit shows great potential in improving the current cross-border payment system. We propose that the new system based on DFC can be done in three patterns and the third one is most feasible: IMF-leading pattern, countries-leading pattern and the coexisting pattern. The new system will effectively reduce the transmission time and cost of cross-border payment services due to DFC’s peer-to-peer mode. Moreover, as the new system becomes more open, more flexible and more inclusive, all the developing countries will get fair and easy access to these services.
Topic:: Finance, Currency, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: China, Global Focus, and Global Markets

3293. China should address downward pressure in 2018

Author:: Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: In 2017, the Chinese economy rebounded more significantly than expected. There is now general anticipation that growth in 2018 will fall slightly compared with that of 2017, but that it will remain stable at 6.5 percent or above. However, there are some factors that could lead to downward pressure on investment and consumption in 2018. First, investment growth has shown negative growth recently. Judging from the notional fixed-asset investment, the year-on-year growth in the first 11 months of 2017 was 7.2 percent, 1.1 percentage points lower than in the same period of 2016. Due to the significant increase in producer price index (PPI) growth in 2017, the drop in real investment growth in 2017 is quite worrying. The real investment growth rate in the first three quarters of 2017 dropped to 2.2 percent year-on-year, while in the same period of 2016, this figure was 9.5 percent year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, the real investment rate in the third quarter of 2017 fell by 1.1 percent year-on-year, the first time that negative growth has been recorded in more than a decade.
Topic:: Economy, Economic Growth, and Investment
Political Geography:: China and Asia

3294. More than infrastructures: Policy Brief water challenges in Iraq

Author:: Tobias von Lossow
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: With the liberation of Mosul from so-called Islamic State (IS) in November 2017, Iraq entered – once again – a post-conﬂict period. In his Policy Brief Tobias von Lossow analyses how shrinking water quantities and acutely declining water quality pose tremendous challenges in the process of rebuilding the country: Dam building in Turkey and Iran has contributed to a remarkably reduced water inﬂow of the Euphrates and Tigris; Iraqi water installations had been in very poor condition before IS used water as a weapon and further damaged infrastructure; Tigris River’s waterﬂow upstream of Baghdad requires careful coordination between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and central government; extremely salinised water resources and environmental degradation in the Marshes risk the extinction of agricultural activities and livelihoods in that area. To address these challenges, technical measures will be important, and necessary – for instance, investment in water infrastructure. But that will not be nearly enough, as the water issue has the potential to accelerate re-emerging social divisions and political fragmentation and thus undermine Iraq’s stability and security. The political implications of water policies must be carefully taken into account in Iraq’s postconﬂict process and should complement technical efforts in this crucial sector. The basin-wide protection of the supply infrastructure could serve as a technical as well as a political entry point for water cooperation in the region.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Water, Infrastructure, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

3295. European strategic autonomy: Policy Brief Going it alone?

Author:: Margriet Drent
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: With the boost that has been given to the EU’s defence policy, some of the St. Malo reﬂexes have reoccurred in Washington. Mostly, there are some misgivings in the United States about the exact meaning of ‘European strategic autonomy’, as it featured in the 2016 EU Global Strategy. But also in Europe, it is not clear what strategic autonomy means. In light of the increasing uncertainty among the EU and European NATO-members about the solidity of the American security guarantees, strategic autonomy gains a new quality. If Europe were forced ‘to go it alone’, what would that take, both in terms of conventional and nuclear capabilities? In her latest Policy Brief author Margriet Drent concludes that European countries face a dilemma: they have to simultaneously invest in their strategic autonomy and in keeping the United States committed to their security.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, European Union, and Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

3296. Four ways in which the Syrian CRU Policy Brief regime controls refugee return

Author:: Samar Batrawi and Ana Uzelac
Publication Date:: 09-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Syrian society is more socially, politically and geographically fragmented than ever before. None of the social problems that caused the 2011 protests have been resolved. Nevertheless, during recent months the Syrian regime has been trying to foster the image that Syria is entering a post-war phase in which a unified and stable Syria can flourish under President Bashar al-Assad. The fact that more than half of the country’s pre-war population is living in exile and has no part in this new social contract of sorts is conveniently omitted from the image presented of this ‘new’ Syria. These refugees will likely continue to live in precarious conditions, with few prospects for safe and voluntary return. In this policy brief authors Samar Batrawi and Ana Uzelac identify four tools the Syrian regime has at its disposal to control the return of refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). It is the second in a series that explores practical considerations of potential European involvement in specific areas of reconstruction in Assad-ruled Syria (the first policy brief on urban reconstruction can be found here.) The brief puts these tools in the perspective of the broader conflict dynamics affecting refugees and IDPs and identifies implications for Western European policy. It concludes that rather than resigning to the limited possibilities for structural political engagement in Syria, Western European policymakers should invest in ways to mitigate the material and political dispossession of more than half of Syria’s pre-war population.
Topic:: Refugee Issues, Displacement, Conflict, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

3297. From soldiers to politicians? Iraq’s Al-Hashd Al-Sha’abi ‘on the march’

Author:: Nancy Ezzeddine and Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 11-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: It has become clear since Iraq’s May 2018 elections that many of the armed groups that make up the country’s Al-Hashd al-Sha’abi (aka Popular Mobilization Forces) intend to fully integrate into the Iraqi Security Forces and/or disband at some point now that the fight against the Islamic State (IS) has reached a much lower level of intensity. Several groups are less likely to do so, however, including those linked with Iran. Although all 50+ Hashd groups have been brought under the legal purview of the Iraqi state, in practice a number continue to operate autonomously. The fragmented nature of both the Iraqi state’s coercive capabilities and the country’s political landscape will make it difficult, in the short term, to compel reluctant groups to integrate into state security forces or disband. Pushing for enforcement of such compliance risks violence and is best avoided. At the same time, using a broad set of indicators to monitor Hashd-related events and incidents based on open, online sources, this policy brief provides substantial evidence that some Hashd groups are using their autonomy to strengthen their power base in ways that will complicate achieving greater integration in the future. Our research suggests that policy makers in Baghdad and Western capitals should support four initiatives that can help limit this risk without triggering large-scale violence: Gradually establish a direct, incentive-based relationship between Hashd fighters and the state to shift the loyalties of fighters over time. Tighten local command, control and coordination mechanisms of all state security actors to compartmentalise the way in which Hashd groups operate, especially locally. Ensure that (international) reconstruction funds have strong in-built safeguards and standards that reduce corruption and do not contribute to the growing penetration of the Iraqi economy by armed actors, e.g. by contracting them. Address the root causes of the emergence of IS to remove the rationale for some Hashd groups to retain arms (and to make Iraq safer).
Topic:: Non State Actors, Conflict, and Militias
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

3298. Rising Tensions Between Policy Brief the West and Russia: What Role For Arms Control?

Author:: Peter van Ham
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Today, political relations between the West and Russia have entered a new mini-Ice Age, existing arms control arrangements are either dysfunctional or simply not used, and both sides are improving their military readiness. The obvious question that needs to be raised is whether, and if so how, these escalating tensions can be contained, or even reduced? This Policy Brief offers insight into the most pressing concerns, focusing on areas and issues where matters could escalate fastest. It asks what role can still be foreseen for arms control and concludes with a call for transatlantic unity and a stronger role for NATO to counter Russia’s military and geopolitical gambit. It suggests that the classic two-pronged “Harmel approach” (based on deterrence and détente) should be restored. This includes a mix of US-Russian high summitry and the revitalisation of the NATO-Russia Council as part of a broad and far-reaching (military) risk reduction process.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

3299. Reducing Nuclear Weapons Risks: A Menu of 11 Policy Options

Author:: Sico van der Meer
Publication Date:: 06-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: As long as nuclear weapons exist, efforts should be made to prevent them from being used. Especially during the Cold War much thought was given to measures to prevent a nuclear war – on purpose or by accident. Considering the recent increase in the status of nuclear weapons in strategic communications, military spending, and political rhetoric in many of the nine states possessing nuclear weapons, it is worth reviewing the possibilities of such risk-reduction options. In this policy brief author Sico van der Meer identifies eleven categories of policy options which might be implemented by any of the nuclear weapon states to further reduce the risks of nuclear weapons being used. It also offers a brief exploration of the venues that could be used to discuss and implement any of the risk reduction policies identified here.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3300. Revitalizing Diplomatic Efforts to Advance CTBT Entry Into Force

Author:: Daryl G. Kimball
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: More than two decades after the opening for signature of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the treaty has near universal support and has established a global norm against nuclear test explosions. The nuclear testing taboo impedes the development of new and more advanced nuclear warhead designs, which helps prevent dangerous nuclear competition, and maintain international security. Although the CTBT has created a norm against testing and a robust technical organization responsible for the operation and maintenance of a highly sensitive global nuclear test monitoring system, the treaty has not entered into force due to the failure of eight key states, including the United States and China, to ratify. The CTBT is and will continue to be an essential pillar in the global nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament enterprise. Moving closer to the goal of the CTBT’s formal entry into force is the task of every CTBT state party, every nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) state-party, every state that supports the new Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and any other state that considers itself a “responsible” nuclear actor. But in order to realize the full potential of the treaty and to close the door on testing, friends of the CTBT will need to rejuvenate and update their efforts to achieve its entry into force and reinforce the taboo against nuclear testing.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS