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2. Paths to a Ceasefire in Ukraine: America Must Take the Lead
- Author:
- Anatol Lieven
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- Barring an improbable complete victory for Ukraine or Russia, the conflict in Ukraine will end, or more likely be suspended, in the form of a compromise. The fighting is therefore now essentially about the geographical and political lines along which this compromise will be drawn. These will become much clearer once the results of the forthcoming Ukrainian counter–offensive are known, and the aftermath of the offensive will be the time for an intensive diplomatic effort to bring about a ceasefire. Ideally, this compromise should take the form of a peace settlement like Northern Ireland’s in 1999, that would end the war and allow the creation of a stable, consensual and peaceful security order in Europe. More likely, however, is a ceasefire that (as in the cases of Kashmir, Korea, and Cyprus) will freeze the existing battle–line, wherever that runs. Such a ceasefire will in any case be necessary if talks aimed at a formal peace settlement are to take place; and even if such a treaty cannot be reached, such a ceasefire, if far from ideal, might still prove reasonably stable and permanent. Both the U.S. and Ukrainian administrations stated after it began that the war would inevitably end in a negotiated peace. In the first month of the war President Volodymyr Zelensky put forward peace proposals that included suspending the issues of Crimea and the eastern Donbas for future negotiation. Since then, however, both Ukraine and Russia have adopted positions that make any agreement between them exceptionally difficult. Given these circumstances, the United States must play the greatest role in achieving a ceasefire.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Strategic Engagement, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
3. Working Toward Peaceful Relations between Oromia and Somali Regional States, Ethiopia: Policy Options
- Author:
- Ketema Debela
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- In recent years, Ethiopia has increasingly faced violent conflicts which are intergovernmental, interparty, and interethnic in nature. In this regard, the conflict between Oromia and Somali regional states, which used to be local and confined to border areas prior to 2017, expanded its scale from local to the regional level, from clan to ethnic level. By drawing on research about intergovernmental conflict resolution and peacebuilding between Oromia and the Somali Regional State, this policy brief identifies the root causes of conflict along the borderlands between Oromo and Somali, examines the effectiveness of the measures taken to address the conflict, and recommends key areas for policy interventions to resolve the conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Armed Conflict, Dialogue, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, Oromia, and Somali Regional State
4. State-Centric Approach to Resolving the Anglophone Conflict in Cameroon: What Prospects?
- Author:
- Francis Tazoacha
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute, a think–thank of Denis and Lenora Foretia Foundation, Simbock, Yaoundé, Cameroon, hosted a webinar on January 26, 2021 on the theme: “Can the Anglophone Crisis be Solved Through a State-Centric Approach?” Hosted in partnership with the National Endowment for Democracy based in Washington DC, the webinar sought to know if the ongoing conflict in North West and South West Cameroon can be resolved through a state–centric approach. Bringing together about 68 participants, the January 2021 webinar sought to provide a platform for knowledge sharing and dialogue on the anglophone conflict and brainstorming to see if the state alone can resolve the conflict without the involvement of other stakeholders. The meeting sought to address a widely recognized need for the government of Cameroon to ensure greater involvement of civil society organizations, regional bodies, the United Nations, the African Union, Nation States and international mediators in the sustainable resolution of the conflict. For the past four years, the socio-political climate of the Anglophone regions of Cameroon has been very volatile. The long-standing grievances among the Anglophone population in the North West and South West Regions of Cameroon concerning marginalisation particularly in the educational and legal systems by the Francophone-dominated government led to widespread protests in October 2016.1 The conflict escalated from a peaceful demonstration that was met with a heavy crackdown from the government security forces in 2017. As a result, the situation morphed into an armed conflict with increasing support by the population in the Anglophone regions to seek independence from Cameroun – French Cameroon – as an independent “Republic of Ambazonia.” Since 2017, the conflict has continued unabated without any party seeming to surrender and thus end the war. Despite attempts from the national and international communities to intervene and resolve this destructive conflict, it has nevertheless, resulted in an impasse.2 The government of Cameroon opted for a military strategy from the very beginning of the peaceful protest that quickly changed into an armed conflict. Some pundits attribute this escalation to November 30, 2017 when President Biya, upon his return from Abidjan, Ivory Coast – after attending the 5th African Union-European Union Summit – declared to pressmen at the Yaoundé Nsimalen International Airport that he would put an end to the series of killings of forces of law. He also said he would order in general and the massacres around Mamfe in the South West Region, at the time all claimed to have been perpetrated by “Anglophone separatists.”
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Conflict, Nation-State, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
5. Addressing Needs, Promoting Peace: A Proposal for an International Incentives Package for Israeli-Palestinian Peace
- Author:
- Lior Lehrs, Moien Odeh, Nimrod Goren, and Huda Abu Arqoub
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- peace processes and have the potential to contribute to the advancement of Israeli-Palestinian conflict resolution. A team of Israeli and Palestinian policy experts developed a joint proposal for an international package of incentives for peace. The proposal defines the central needs of the parties that the incentives package must address, focusing on security, recognition and legitimacy, religious rights, economic prosperity and domestic needs. It examines which international actors can be relevant in addressing those needs and should be part of an international incentives package, elaborating on the potential role of the US, the EU, and the Arab and the Muslim world. The proposal also discusses when and how a package of incentives should be introduced and delivered, and what should be the international mechanism required to promote it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, European Union, Peace, and Incentives
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
6. Morocco and the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process
- Author:
- Einat Levi, Roee Kibrik, and Nimrod Goren
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- By dint of its position in the Arab and Muslim arena, Morocco is strongly committed to the Palestinian issue and the safeguarding of Jerusalem’s Muslim holy sites. Throughout its history, Morocco has served at times as a mediator between Israel and the Arab world and mobilized to help Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking within the framework of the Oslo process. Morocco has adopted a largely neutral foreign policy as a state seeking stability in the Middle East and North Africa and willing to help mediate regional conflicts. These efforts are notable in both the Palestinian arena and in the broader Middle Eastern and North African one. Israel takes a positive view of ties with Morocco, backed by the support of the large Moroccan Jewish diaspora living in Israel. Palestinian views of Morocco’s policy are mixed. Along with a positive perception based on recognition of Morocco’s commitment to the Palestinian issue, measured criticism is also being heard over its decision to advance normalization with Israel. Attitudes toward the normalization process are complex, including both criticism and support for the move. Morocco cannot set in motion and orchestrate the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, but it can help by providing conciliation and mediation and broad legitimacy for a consensual arrangement on Jerusalem’s holy sites.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Negotiation, Peace, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Morocco
7. Reflections on Success Hope for a Women, Peace and Security Future
- Author:
- Molly Hamilton
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- By interweaving an analysis of the achievements with reflections from Women, Peace and Security (WPS) giants, this Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) seeks to flip the narrative around by focusing on the achievements in advancing and promoting women’s participation in peace processes, and highlighting all the reasons to celebrate the advances in the WPS agenda.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Women, Peace, and WPS
- Political Geography:
- Africa
8. The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Border Communities: The Case of Chipinge – Zimbabwe
- Author:
- Owen Mangiza and Joshua Chakawa
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- This Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) discusses the implications of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on border communities, principally in relation to border controls by governments and trans-border activities by community members living close to the border in Zimbabwe.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, Border Control, Pandemic, Community, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
9. Trade and trust: the role of trade in de facto state conflict transformation
- Author:
- Tamta Gelashvili, Helge Blakkisrud, and Nino Kemoklidze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- De facto states – unrecognized secessionist entities that eke out a living on the margins of the international system – are often heavily dependent on external patron states for economic aid and investment. When the parent state – the state that the de facto state seeks to break away from – responds to the secessionist attempt by imposing sanctions or economic blockades, this further exacerbates such dependency. Moreover, due to their lack of international recognition, de facto states often have limited opportunities to engage with the outside world beyond the patron and the parent state. However, closer examination of one such de facto state, Abkhazia, reveals that de facto states can enjoy some bounded independent economic agency. Abkhazia’s maneuvering between Russia as “patron,” Georgia as “parent state,” and the wider international community (here exemplified by the EU) in the sphere of trade and economic interaction has important implications for de-facto state conflict transformation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, Emerging States, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
10. Beyond May 1: The Future of U.S. Engagement in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Adam Weinstein
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- October 2021 will mark the 20th anniversary of the U.S. war in Afghanistan. The United States currently finds itself at an inflection point, as it determines whether to withdraw its remaining troops by May 1, as required by a 2020 agreement with the Taliban, or to remain militarily involved in the conflict. The Biden administration should take the following steps to best support a negotiated settlement to end the war, while also bringing U.S. troops home.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, War, Military Affairs, Taliban, Peace, and Troop Deployment
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
11. Focussing European Cooperation with the Middle East and North Africa on Social Contracts
- Author:
- Mark Furness and Markus Loewe
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- 2021 is proving to be a key year for cooperation between Europe and its neighbours in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. As the European Union (EU) launches its new multiannual budget, the COVID-19 pandemic has demanded a rethink of the political, economic and social priorities that the EU and its member states should pursue with MENA countries. Europe’s potential for positive influence on state–society relations in MENA countries has yet to be realised. The latest European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) South Communication, published in February 2021, promises a “new agenda” for cooperation with MENA countries. It does not, however, address conflicts between its own objectives, especially between liberal–democratic political and economic reforms, accountable government and respect for human rights on the one hand, and restrictive trade practices, migration management and security cooperation on the other. Furthermore, there is little bilateral policy coordination among EU member states. Focussing cooperation on social contracts would help overcome such conflicts, which are inherent in cooperation targeting short- to medium-term goals, such as migration management, resilience and private investment. In authoritarian contexts, these measures tend to strengthen the state at the expense of society, and thereby increase prospects for conflict, rather than the stability they promise. The social contract perspective is long-term. Social contracts rely on the state’s delivery of the “3 Ps”: protection (of citizens), provision (of economic and social services) and participation (in decision-making). The social contract provides an analytical tool and a set of organising principles for joint EU and member state priorities and activities. The social contract lens shows how the 3 Ps work together as a framework for social cohesion, peaceful relations and political stability. In practical terms, its use would help improve the effectiveness, coherence and coordination of EU and member state cooperation with MENA countries. Some EU member states prefer to focus on trade and economic cooperation, some on political reform and human rights, and others on migration management. If all take a more long-term perspective, they will realise that sustainable social contracts in MENA countries are good for all of their aims. All European actions should support reforms in MENA countries that aim to make social contracts more acceptable to the contracting parties – governments and social groups. Ideally, such reforms result from negotiations of social contracts between parties on equal terms. In practice, how¬ever, the negotiation power of social groups is often limited – one reason why Europe should ensure that its programmes strengthen societies at least as much as governments. This paper discusses four key cooperation areas which are potential drivers of change for social contracts: • Conflict resolution, peacebuilding and reconstruction; • Post-COVID-19 recovery: health and social protection; • Participation at local, regional and national levels; and • Mutually beneficial migration and mobility. The EU and its member states, by working together on the 3 Ps in these four areas, can influence positive change in the MENA region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Migration, Regional Cooperation, European Union, COVID-19, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and North Africa
12. A Peace Regime for the Korean Peninsula
- Author:
- Frank Aum, Jacob Stokes, Patricia M. Kim, Atman M. Trivedi, Rachel Vandenbrink, Jennifer Staats, and Joseph Yun
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- A joint statement by the United States and North Korea in June 2018 declared that the two countries were committed to building “a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.” Such a peace regime will ultimately require the engagement and cooperation of not just North Korea and the United States, but also South Korea, China, Russia, and Japan. This report outlines the perspectives and interests of each of these countries as well as the diplomatic, security, and economic components necessary for a comprehensive peace.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, Economy, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, Korean Peninsula, and United States of America
13. Truth and justice initiatives in non-transitional contexts: experiences from Latin America
- Author:
- Victória Monteiro da Silva Santos
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- BRICS Policy Center
- Abstract:
- By tracing concepts such as truth, justice, reparations, and nonrepeats, as well as models such as the International Commission against Impunity, the Interdisciplinary Group of Independent Experts, and the Truth Commission, the article discusses some of the ways in which a diversity actors sought to address and transform the complex patterns of organized violence that routinely impact various Latin American societies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Transitional Justice, Justice, Reconciliation, Truth, and Reparations
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, Latin America, and Mexico
14. Incremental inclusivity in peace processes: Key lessons learnt
- Author:
- Andreas Schädel and Veronique Dudouet
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- This policy brief provides evidence-based lessons learnt and recommendations on the timing, sequencing and modalities of inclusion of nonsignatory armed groups and civil society actors in peace processes. It aims to inform a strategic understanding on how to design and implement peace processes that are effective in bringing about an inclusive political, economic and social transformation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Peace, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
15. Challenges and opportunities for conflict resolution with Salafi jihadi armed groups
- Author:
- Veronique Dudouet and Karin Göldner-Ebenthal
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- This policy brief highlights recommendations for evidence-based policy making on pathways to conflict de-escalation with Salafi jihadi armed groups. It proposes a more nuanced public discussion of the topic. This brief draws mainly on the research report “Dialogue with Salafi jihadi armed groups: Challenges and opportunities for conflict de-escalation” which concludes a two-year research project based on case studies in Somalia, Syria and Mali.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Islam, Religion, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, Syria, Somalia, and Mali
16. Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya
- Author:
- Ben Fishman and Charles Thépaut
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue. On January 19, international leaders will convene in Berlin to discuss a way out of the nine-month civil war between the so-called “Libyan National Army” led by Gen. Khalifa Haftar and the internationally recognized Government of National Accord led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. The Germans led several months of preparatory efforts at the request of UN envoy Ghassan Salame, but had been reluctant to choose a specific date until they were assured that the event stood a reasonable chance of producing practical steps to improve the situation on the ground and jumpstart the UN’s stalled negotiation efforts between the LNA and GNA. Chancellor Angela Merkel finally took that step after several key developments unfolded earlier this month, including a January 8 ceasefire proposal by Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Putin’s subsequent failed attempt to have each side sign a more permanent ceasefire agreement in Moscow on January 13 (the GNA signed but Haftar balked, though most of the fighting has paused for the moment). Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been averse to engage on Libya during his tenure, but he is expected to attend the Berlin conference alongside National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien. Accordingly, the event gives the United States a chance to play a much-needed role on several fronts: namely, pressuring the foreign actors who have perpetuated the war and violated the arms embargo; working with Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Russia to codify a ceasefire at the UN Security Council; and backing Salame’s efforts to reinvigorate the Libyan national dialogue, which Haftar preempted by attacking Tripoli last April despite European support to Salame. Since 2011, Libya has struggled to establish a legitimate transitional government despite three national elections and the creation of at least four legislative bodies. Challenges to the 2014 election results eventually led to rival governments in the east and west, and the division solidified when Haftar started the first civil war with support from his allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. That war halted in 2015, but several years’ worth of domestic and international efforts failed to bring Sarraj and Haftar to an enduring resolution.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, and Conference
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, Germany, North Africa, United Arab Emirates, Berlin, and United States of America
17. Russia’s Growing Interests in Libya
- Author:
- Anna Borshchevskaya
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As in other conflict zones, Moscow cares little about reaching a peace deal so long as it can outmaneuver the West strategically while securing port and energy access—with private contractors playing an increasingly important role. The Kremlin is now openly treating Libya as another focal point of its Middle East activities. After years of U.S. neglect, the country has turned into a proxy war playground, and President Vladimir Putin is vying to become the chief power broker. Earlier this month, he tried (but failed) to get Khalifa Haftar to sign a ceasefire agreement in Moscow with Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA). Putin also participated in the January 19 Berlin conference aimed at getting the parties back on the path toward a political solution. And though the prospects for such a deal remain uncertain, Moscow’s involvement in Libya will continue either way.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Civil War, Geopolitics, Negotiation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, Libya, and North Africa
18. The Normandy Negotiations Renewed: Divisions at Home and Opportunity Abroad
- Author:
- David Carment
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- After three years of limited discussion, the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine renewed their peace talks to resolve the separatist conflict in Eastern Ukraine (Donbas). Efforts to facilitate a peaceful resolution to the conflict in the Donbas began five years ago with the meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine. This framework, developed by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), attempted to facilitate a dialogue between Russia and Ukraine through the mediation of an impartial actor, and it culminated in the Minsk I (September 2014) and then Minsk II (February 2015) agreements. The Minsk II agreements comprised a 13-point peace plan, chief among which is an arrangement specifying support for the restoration of the Ukrainian-Russian border. While the implementation of the military portions of the Minsk II agreements were finalized within three months of signing, the political and security portions remained unresolved. Though President Vladimir Putin has declared his intent to protect the Russian-speaking peoples of the region, he has also stated he has no interest in reclaiming Eastern Ukraine. Not surprisingly, since Russia’s ultimate goal is undeclared, the conflict has proved very difficult to resolve.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Territorial Disputes, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Canada, France, Germany, and United States of America
19. Economic Priorities for a Sustainable Peace Agreement in Yemen
- Author:
- Zaid Ali Basha and Rafat Al-Akhali
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The sustainability of a peace agreement in Yemen depends on two critical economic issues. First, in a conflict that is largely over access to resources, the issues of distribution, control, and sharing of those resources can make or break peace. Therefore, these issues must be addressed head-on during negotiations. Second, where peace agreements lack provisions that create overall economic stability, warfare can resume during the fragile implementation period. The fears over the resumption of conflict after signing a peace agreement are substantiated by several historical events in Yemen, such as the failure of the GCC Initiative.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, Natural Resources, Peacekeeping, Peace, and Economic Development
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Yemen, and West Asia
20. Recommendations for Israel’s New Foreign Minister: Initial Policy Messages
- Author:
- Nimrod Goren, Merav Kahana-Dagan, Roee Kibrik, Lior Lehrs, Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, and Ksenia Svetlova
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- srael’s new foreign minister should lead a process of fixing Israel’s foreign policy. This paper presents recommendations for messages he can convey and actions he can take to improve Israel’s regional relations with Arab states, the Palestinians and Europe. It is based on deliberations by a Mitvim Institute task team.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Jordan
21. The Twentieth Anniversary of UNSCR 1325: What’s next in the era of COVID-19?
- Author:
- Helen Scanlon, Pravina Makan-Lakha, and Molly Hamilton
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The year 2020 marked two milestones for women’s rights and the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda: the 25th anniversary of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, as well as the 20th anniversary of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 (UNSCR 1325). Both of these international commitments stressed the importance of advancing women’s rights, particularly in relation to their participation efforts to achieve peace and security. However, the COVID-19 pandemic derailed existing plans to mark these achievements. Instead of allowing the pandemic to further disrupt the strides that have been made to advance women’s human rights over the last two decades, it is critical that peace and security activists reframe the circumstances created by the pandemic as an opportunity to secure meaningful change. Within this context, this Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) will critique the progress made in the WPS’ agenda since the adoption of UNSCR 1325 and provide African perspectives on what should be prioritised over the next 20 years.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Women, Peace, COVID-19, and WPS
- Political Geography:
- Africa
22. A Proposal for a Stability Mechanism for the Gulf Cooperation Countries
- Author:
- Rabah Arezki and Aitor Erce
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—face the dual shock of a pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus and a persistent collapse in oil prices. Because of the dual shock, the growth downgrade for the GCC as a whole is 7.5 percentage points in 2020 (World Bank, 2020). This can be considered as the cost of the dual shock—Arezki and others, 2020. But there is wide uncertainty about the estimate, which could be even higher. GCC countries must act collectively and boldly today to reduce the risk of an economic depression. A delayed and tenuous response may force authorities to spend even more in the future to, among other things, rescue cash-strapped members, as non-performing loans and bankruptcies become widespread (Ari et al., 2020). A powerful joint mechanism to cushion the blow, and ensure solidarity and stability of the GCC is warranted.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Political stability, Conflict, and Gulf Cooperation Council
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
23. What Do We Know about Post-Conflict Transitional Justice from Academic Research: Key Insights for Practitioners
- Author:
- Charlotte Fiedler and Karina Mross
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Societies that have experienced violent conflict face considerable challenges in building sustainable peace. One crucial question they need to address is how to deal with their violent past and atrocities that were committed – for example, whether perpetrators should be held accountable by judicial means, or whether the focus should be laid on truth telling and the compensation of victims. Transitional justice (TJ) offers a range of instruments that aim to help societies come to terms with their history of violent conflict. Systematic, empirical analyses of TJ instruments have been emerging over the last years. This Briefing Paper summarises the policy-relevant insights they provide regarding the main TJ instruments: trials; truth commissions; reparations for victims; and amnesties.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Transitional Justice, Political Science, Peace, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, Germany, and Global Focus
24. Community Perspectives on Violent Extremism: Strengthening local factors of social resilience
- Author:
- Engjellushe Morina, Beatrix Austin, and Veronique Dudouet
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- Dealing with violent extremism (VE) has emerged as a central framework of analysis and policy-making in most Western and non-Western government agencies. It is also heavily shaping the programming of non-governmental agencies and research institutions. While there is an undeniable need to address the phenomenon, more often than not analysis and programming fall short in understanding and tackling its root causes, factors, actors and systemic dynamics.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Government, Non-Governmental Organization, Violent Extremism, and Political Extremism
- Political Geography:
- Balkans
25. End U.S. Military Support for the Saudi-Led War in Yemen
- Author:
- Enea Gjoza and Benjamin H. Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The Yemeni Civil War is in its fourth year, and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and their allies are not close to a victory over the Houthi rebels.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Military Spending, Military Intervention, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and North Africa
26. Disentangling from Syria's Civil War
- Author:
- Benjamin H. Friedman and Justin Logan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The United States intervened in Syria’s civil war in two ways: (1) anti-Assad efforts—through aid to rebels to help foster regime change and with airpower, troops and support to a militia—and (2) anti-ISIS efforts—through aid to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to destroy the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate. The first mission was an ill-considered failure, the second a success.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, Military Intervention, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, and Syria
27. Exiting Afghanistan: Ending America's Longest War
- Author:
- Benjamin H. Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The war in Afghanistan—now America’s longest at nearly 18 years—quickly achieved its initial aims: (1) to destroy the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization and (2) to punish the Taliban government that gave it haven. However, Washington extended the mission to a long and futile effort of building up the Afghan state to defeat the subsequent Taliban insurgency.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, War, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Military Affairs, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Asia
28. Transitional Government in Post-Conflict Yemen
- Author:
- Rafat Al-Akhali, Osamah Al-Rawhani, and Anthony Biswell
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- This policy brief offers recommendations to maximize the effectiveness of governance in post-conflict Yemen – whatever the composition or structure of the government. It presents three case studies on government models previously introduced in Yemen, Tunisia and Lebanon after periods of instability. These case studies offer useful lessons on the challenges, risks and opportunities of forming transitional governments in post-conflict contexts.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, Government, Peacekeeping, Transitional Justice, Conflict, Peace, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Yemen, and West Asia
29. Diplomacy, the Eritrea-Ethiopia Peace Deal and its Implications
- Author:
- Michael Asiedu
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- On 5 June 2018, Ethiopia’s ruling coalition; Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) under its new leader, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared that it shall accept the terms of a peace agreement with neighbouring Eritrea. The announcement came as a shock both to the international community and analysts who follow politics in the Horn of Africa. Beneath the declaration were years of silent diplomatic undertakings which have been given relatively lesser attention as the charismatic nature of Ethiopia’s new Prime Minister has taken centre stage. This Brief shall emphasize the role of diplomacy in the build-up to the announcement as well as the unique nature of Prime Minister Ahmed; in doing so, it is intrinsic to capture the historical context of the border conflict, an alternative explanation to diplomacy as well as the rewards of the peace deal and its challenges (implications). The Brief concludes by making a case for diplomacy as it still remains a viable factor in terms of conflict resolution in Africa.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea
30. Sudan demonstrations between ad-hoc economic measures and far-reaching political changes
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The conflict in Sudan is now between two competing visions: where Bashir believes no political change is needed to address the crisis, the protestors are adamant that it can only be resolved with his departure. The question is which of these two positions will be victorious.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Sudan
31. Enhancing Peacekeeping Training Through Cooperation
- Author:
- Adriana Erthal Abdenur, Giovanna Kuele, and Ariane Francisco
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Igarapé Institute
- Abstract:
- There is growing recognition at the UN and among member states that peacekeeping must be made more effective, especially in face of major budget cuts and wavering leadership by traditional actors. Against this backdrop, how can member states improve the quality of pre-deployment and mission preparation for UN peacekeeping? This policy brief focuses on one area in which innovation has become more urgent than ever: enhancing the effectiveness of peacekeeping through better training. More specifically, we analyze the emerging configurations, innovations, and challenges of international cooperation for peacekeeping training centers (PTCs), drawing on the case of Latin America.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peace Studies, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Training, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
32. Gender and Mediation in Guinea-Bissau
- Author:
- Adriana Erthal Abdenur
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Igarapé Institute
- Abstract:
- On July 10, 2017, the President of Guinea Bissau, José Mário Vaz, met politician Domingos Simões Pereira, who had served as Prime Minister from 2014 to August 2015. Although Pereira remained head of the country’s major political party, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cabo Verde (PAIGC), he had been dismissed (along with the entire cabinet) by the president in August 2015 during a power struggle between the two men. In a public statement, Vaz had justified the dismissal by referring to a “breach of trust. ” For two years following this event, Vaz and Pereira had refused to speak to each other over differences regarding the implementation of the Conakry Accord, which sought to address some of the root causes of the country’s recurring political instability. Given the personal acrimony involved, as well as political differences, the meeting between Vaz and Pereira came as something of a surprise to observers. Yet behind the scenes, a small group of women facilitators had worked intensely for months to bring the two men in the same room. The meeting resulted from their persistent yet discreet efforts to help lessen tensions around the impasse by promoting dialogue among the key actors. This policy brief addresses the origins and development of the Group of Women Facilitators (Grupo de Mulheres Facilitatoras – GMF), focusing on the period from May to November 2017. Although the brief does not offer a systematic evaluation of the initiative, the general impact of the GMF during these six months on the Conakry Agreement debates and, more broadly, on Guinea-Bissau’s political scene are assessed in light of the objectives the group set out for itself in May. The analysis draws on a combination of desk review of policy documents from the Guinea-Bissau government, major international organizations such as the UN and ECOWAS, and civil society entities in GuineaBissau, as well as semi-structured interviews with group members and other stakeholders carried out in Bissau in November 2017.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Gender Issues, Peacekeeping, Women, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Guinea-Bissau
33. Four ways in which the Syrian regime controls refugee return
- Author:
- Samar Batrawi and Ana Uzelac
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Syrian society is more socially, politically and geographically fragmented than ever before. None of the social problems that caused the 2011 protests have been resolved. Nevertheless, during recent months the Syrian regime has been trying to foster the image that Syria is entering a post-war phase in which a unified and stable Syria can flourish under President Bashar al-Assad. The fact that more than half of the country’s pre-war population is living in exile and has no part in this new social contract of sorts is conveniently omitted from the image presented of this ‘new’ Syria. These refugees will likely continue to live in precarious conditions, with few prospects for safe and voluntary return.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Syria
34. Planning Post-IS Iraq: Competing Visions Within the Shia Block?
- Author:
- Irene Costantini
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- The Shia Block is realistically the key determinant for national reconciliation to occur in Iraq. However, its internal divisions make it a problematic and non-unitary interlocutor for national, regional, and international initiatives. So far, the Block has outlined two separate and independent plans: al-Hakim’s “Historical Settlement” and al-Sadr’s roadmap
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Iraq
35. Normalisation in Ankara-Baghdad Relations: A New Era?
- Author:
- Athanasios Manis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- The Iraqi and Turkish leadership have restored direct contact, thus providing an opportunity for dialogue. However, the extent to which this can lead to a sustainable normalisation process and furthermore to a deepening of their relationship is highly questionable. This policy brief argues that the main problem lies with the fact that a win-win scenario of overlapping or complementary interests does not seem to be driving the leaderships’ actions. Instead, it is ad hoc developments external to their bilateral relationship that have a positive effect for the time being, such as the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey, and subsequently a concerted attempt between Russia, Turkey and Iran to stabilise the region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
36. The Haftar-Sarraj Rapprochement and Prospects for a Resolution of the Libyan Crisis
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Abstract The commander of Operation Dignity, Khalifa Haftar, shocked supporters even more than his opponents when he agreed to meet the Chairman of the Presidential Council, Fayez al-Sarraj, in Abu Dhabi on 2 May 2017, having previously refused to recognise him. This about-face may be attributable to the acquiescence of Haftar’s regional allies to direct international pressure. Reactions to the rapprochement between al-Sarraj and Haftar varied across the eastern and western fronts. Khalifa Haftar’s status in the east precludes serious opposition to his decisions, while in the western region a substantial segment of the population blessed the meeting in hopes that a détente would stop the deterioration of the security and economic situation. In contrast, western political and military factions were incensed, and some responded violently. Haftar’s acceptance of consensual agreement and reconciliation clearly grows out the waning possibility of assuming control of the country through decisive military action. From his standpoint, it therefore makes sense to attempt to impose his conditions through negotiations, which means the Skhirat agreement could collapse or undergo radical revisions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Libya
37. The Battle of Western Mosul: Stakes and prospects
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper reviews the importance of western Mosul to all parties in the conflict: the Iraqi forces and their allies, on the one hand, and the Islamic State’s forces, on the other, and the obstacles to any of these parties resolving the conflict. It also touches on the extent of their forces and the clear dominance of the offensive forces, and it discusses the military strategies for the battle and potential outcomes in addition to the available options for the Islamic State (IS). It anticipates an end to the fight in favour of the Iraqi forces within a few weeks if the battle and its results progress at a similar pace to that of its first week. This will depend on any unaccounted for variables during the battle that would change the equation on the ground. It concludes by discussing the available options for IS after the battle ends, with the expectation that IS will fight until the end; while its commanders will inevitability lose the battle, this will not eliminate threats to security and stability in Iraq in the foreseeable future.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
38. Between Astana and Geneva: The outlook of conflicting agendas in the Syrian crisis
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of the Astana process, Moscow seems to be in a race against time to establish the foundations of a solution in Syria before arriving in Geneva: first, by reforming the opposition’s delegation to the negotiations, an effort Moscow has been working on ever since the military intervention in Syria began, and second, by redrawing the solution’s main parameters, which Moscow exerted great effort towards during marathon negotiations conducted with the former US Secretary of State, John Kerry. Through these negotiations, Moscow has been able to change the rules at Geneva by prioritising an agreement to change the constitution, followed by the formation of a non-sectarian representative government, and then calling for presidential elections with Assad’s participation, so ‘the Syrian people can decide his fate’.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil War, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Syria
39. Myanmar: Justice sector reform must include local dispute resolution
- Author:
- Helene Maria Kyed
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- In Myanmar, ordinary citizens prefer to have crimes and disputes resolved within their village or neighborhood. There is a clear preference for avoiding conflict escalation, rather than punishing perpetrators. The official courts are seen as places to avoid whenever possible. They are mistrusted, associated with high costs, and many feel intimidated by them due to fear of authority and formality. Reforming the official judiciary is important in Myanmar, but even if the courts functioned according to international standards, there would still be a demand for local forms of dispute resolution focused on reconciliation and negotiated settlements. This is due to culturally and religiously informed perceptions of problems and injustices, related to shame, fate and Buddhist beliefs in past life deeds. This policy brief by Helene Maria Kyed argues that any support to justice sector reform in Myanmar should include already existing local dispute resolution mechanisms and take local perceptions of justice serious, rather than alone focus on the official judiciary and international rule of law principles. It is important to base programming on inclusive dialogues about justice at the local level, and invest in building trust and gaining context-specific knowledge.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Myanmar
40. US and German Civilian-led Efforts in Conflict and Fragile Contexts: Addressing Internal Challenges to Improve Impact
- Author:
- Megan German
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- This brief takes a close look at the government responses of Germany and the United States to conflict and crises around the globe and examines some of the internal challenges that inhibit both countries’ ability to implement conflict mitigation and prevention programs and ultimately their ability to deliver effective foreign assistance abroad. This brief makes recommendations in light of four core obstacles that must be addressed if both nations want to improve their foreign assistance delivery and help to stabilize and transform conflict in fragile contexts.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Aid, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and Germany
41. Dealing with the Past: Supporting people-centred “working-through” the legacies of violence
- Author:
- Beatrix Austin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- This policy brief hones in on the specific ways in which a people-centred approach to dealing with the past can be built from the ground up, complementing the previous Berghof Policy Brief no. 5. It works through the commonalities and differences between transitional justice, reconciliation and dealing with the past; and puts emphasis on the dual roles of the victims and their potential in either escalating or de-escalating violent approaches to conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Community
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42. Los retos de "La paz territorial"
- Author:
- Gonzalo Vargas and Rafael Hurtado de Mendoza
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centro Interdisciplinario de Estudios sobre Desarrollo (CIDER), Universidad de los Andes
- Abstract:
- Uno de los conceptos centrales de la plataforma política de Juan Manuel Santos para lograr la reelección y continuar la negociación con las Farc fue el de “paz territorial”. Según el Alto Comisionado de Paz, Sergio Jaramillo, la paz territorial conducirá al fortalecimiento del Estado de Derecho y de los derechos constitucionales de los colombianos en todo el territorio y este resultado se conseguirá gracias a una “alianza en la que los programas gubernamentales, las autoridades regionales—en esto el liderazgo de alcaldes y gobernadores será fundamental—y las comunidades se unen para combinar la coordinación y los recursos nacionales con la fuerza y el conocimiento de la ejecución local” (Jaramillo 2013).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, Law Enforcement, Reform, Rule of Law, Peace, and FARC
- Political Geography:
- Colombia
43. Afghanistan Stabilization Program: A Summary of Research and Key Outcome Trends
- Author:
- Radha Iyengar and Jacob N. Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
- Abstract:
- To provide evidence about which programs best foster stability in fragile and conflict-affected areas we systematically review the relationship between stabilization programming and a broad range of outcomes in Afghanistan. Following a pre-analysis plan, we reviewed 89 existing studies from government, policy think tanks, and academic journals from over 15 years and statistically analyzed data from a range of sources from 2009 to 2015. While we compile a relatively comprehensive set of data, our analysis is based on a subset of stabilization programming the lack of a central repository of reliable data on program spending limited the analysis—because data were kept in disparate locations and never consolidated our quantitative analysis. Overall, we find that some stabilization programming is correlated with small, short-term improvements in support for the Afghan government, perceived access to health care, and economic activity despite the fact that these programs typically targeted more violent areas. We note that the size of this effect was small relative to the overall trends in key security, economic, and attitudinal outcomes over the same period and does not necessarily indicate a direct causal impact of these programs. This positive correlation was primarily observed for relatively low dollar programs (which in some cases were conducted over large parts of a region or country). Qualitative evidence suggests this may be because these smaller programs are easier to administer and less susceptible to corruption. These effects were not sustained beyond one year, suggesting limited scope for long-term or sustainable changes. The lessons our analysis suggest that modest programs with bounded expectations on the size and duration of impact must be included in considerations of future stabilization efforts. We also recommend that future programs collect higher quality data, coordinate their evaluation efforts among donors, plan ahead by building in reporting requirements, and make effective use of new technologies to be facilitated programming that is more adaptive to the conditions on the ground. As these best practices are incorporated, policymakers and implementers can enable better design and implementation of stabilization projects in conflict-affected areas in the future.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Security, War on Terror, Strategic Stability, and Economic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
44. The Future of the Middle East
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala’Aldeen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East is still in flux and will remain so for some time, it will possibly be another decade before the ultimate power balance is reached. Policy makers of Iraq and the KRI who wish to pursue paths of their own design, must look carefully at the trends in power dynamics and the policies of the global and regional powers before designing their strategies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
45. Could the Trump Administration Mean a New Beginning for the Kurds?
- Author:
- Zachary Gallant
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- The shift of United States (US) foreign policy from a heavy international focus with traditional alliances over the past century to the anti-globalist administration promised by President-elect Donald Trump will necessarily upset longstanding regional relations in the Middle East and North Africa. This Policy Paper discusses some of the Trump administration’s most likely foreign policy advisers and their positions on Kurdish self-governance, as well as those of some previous policymakers whose legacies he will be unable to escape.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Relations
- Political Geography:
- America and Middle East
46. Education as a way out of IS: Deradicalisation in Mosul
- Author:
- Maisie Cook
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- With the liberation of Mosul fast becoming a reality, attention is turning to post-IS dynamics. Without sufficient deradicalisation policies, including within the education system, the narrative of the Islamic State will lie dormant or transform, creating the potential for another extremist group to emerge.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Education, Radicalization, and ISIS
- Political Geography:
- Iraq
47. Iran and its Opposition Kurdish Parties: The Need for Dialogue
- Author:
- Hawraman Ali
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Iran and its opposition Kurdish groups have been involved in intermittent armed conflict for decades. Considering the new political realities of the region and the domination of US politics by the Republicans after the recent election, Iran should engage in dialogue with its Kurdish opposition parties.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Kurdistan
48. A Transitioning Turkey: Out with the Old, in with the New?
- Author:
- Athanasios Manis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Turkey is experiencing a crisis of orientation in its internal and external affairs as a result of a transition between a dying and an emerging vision. The end of the current transitional period will not necessarily mark the end of the country’s crisis, but most probably its entrenchment or deepening.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
49. The Reconstruction of Islamic State-Liberated Areas
- Author:
- Irene Costantini
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Nearly thirteen years since the beginning of one of the largest programmes for post-conflict reconstruction, Iraq finds itself again in need of international financial assistance, but the conditions are hardly the same. This time the role of the international community should be matched by the Iraqi political leadership taking responsibility for the country and all of its population.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and ISIS
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
50. The Day After: Governing the KRI
- Author:
- Dylan O’Driscoll
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- The fight against the Islamic State (IS) has caused a ‘rallying around the flag’ effect amongst Iraqi Kurds. Once IS is defeated key political and economic issues long neglected in the Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI) will come to the fore. Thus, it is imperative they are addressed now, as failure to make inroads will have dire consequences for the KRI.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Geopolitics, and ISIS
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
51. Trump’s Foreign Policy in the Middle East: Four Key Issues
- Author:
- Dave van Zoonen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Donald Trump, the next President of the United States, will soon be confronted with the difficulty of translating campaign rhetoric regarding his foreign policy in the Middle East into policy and positive outcomes. He is thus likely to be forced to make significant concessions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- America and Middle East
52. Yet Another Complication in Nineveh: Retaking Tal Afar
- Author:
- Tomáš Kaválek
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Hashd al-Shaabi launched an offensive on Tal Afar on 29 October; the looming recapture of Tal Afar prompted a strong reaction from Turkey, which maintains ties to the Turkmen population there. Tal Afar is thus yet another flashpoint of competing interests between Ankara, Erbil, Baghdad, and Tehran and can possibly further destabilise the situation in Nineveh.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
53. Competing Interests in Shingal: Yazidis Caught Between Millstones
- Author:
- Tomáš Kaválek
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Nearly two years since the north side of Shingal was liberated from the Islamic State, most of the Yazidi population is still displaced. Yazidis are trapped between millstones of the competition of exogenous actors, such as the KDP, the PKK-linked forces, and Baghdad, over the control of the strategically important disputed territory of Shingal.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
54. A Development-Oriented Stabilisation Policy for Mosul
- Author:
- Irene Costantini
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- The Islamic State (IS) has not only surprised everyone with its cruelty but also by proving to be one of the world’s richest terrorist organisations. Now that its economic gains are draining due to military setbacks and financial strains, IS-held territories are increasingly struggling through economic hurdles – the challenge ahead is to link military interventions against IS with concrete economic plans.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
55. International Peace Mediation and Gender: Bridging the Divide
- Author:
- Julia Palmiano Federer and Rachel Gasser
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- BRICS Policy Center
- Abstract:
- In this policy brief, Julia Palmiano Federer and Rachel Gasser explore the nexus between international peace mediation and gender. The publication focuses on the state of play of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda almost two decades since the passing of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 in October 2000. The WPS Agenda has become a powerful and salient normative instrument in the mediation field and most comprehensively represents the nexus between gender and mediation. Since 2000, it has produced large scale efforts to address existing inequalities between women and men as agents for change in peacemaking activities. While these efforts are embraced by mediators per se, addressing these inequalities in practice has achieved mixed results and can be subject of debate between those doing mediation and those supporting mediation from a distance. This policy brief does not advocate for either a normative or pragmatic approach to integrating mediation and gender, but instead aims to illuminate key conceptual debates and practical realities in the ground in different peace processes around the world. It also illustrates the specific opportunities and challenges faced by national governments in implementing the WPS Agenda at the national policy level through National Action Plans. The policy brief concludes with suggested research agendas and questions for debate and discussion.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Transitional Justice
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
56. Syria Crisis Fair Share Analysis 2016
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- The number of people in need as a result of the conflict in Syria continues to rise, but the international aid response has failed to keep up. The donor conference in London on 4 February 2016 is another opportunity to reverse that trend and put Syrian civilians first. Oxfam is calling for rich states to commit to fully funding this year’s Syria crisis response appeal and to resettle 10 percent of all registered Syrian refugees by the end of 2016. Oxfam has developed indicators to determine the fair level of commitment that each wealthy country should make to the appeals in 2016 to alleviate the suffering of those affected by the Syria crisis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and Syria
57. Papua's Insecurity: State Failure in the Indonesian Periphery
- Author:
- Bobby Anderson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- West Papua is the most violent area of Indonesia. Indonesian security forces battle the country's last active separatist insurgency there. The majority of Indonesia's political prisoners are Papuans, and support for independence is widespread. But military repression and indigenous resistance are only one part of a complex topography of insecurity in Papua: vigilantism, clan conflict, and other forms of horizontal violence produce more casualties than the vertical conflict that is often the exclusive focus of international accounts of contemporary Papua. Similarly, Papua's coerced incorporation into Indonesia in 1969 is not unique; it mirrors a pattern of long-term annexation found in other remote and highland areas of South and Southeast Asia. What distinguishes Papua is the near-total absence of the state in indigenous areas. This is the consequence of a morass of policy dysfunction over time that compounds the insecurity that ordinary Papuans face. The author illuminates the diverse and local sources of insecurity that indicate too little state as opposed to too much, challenges common perceptions of insecurity in Papua, and offers a prescription of policy initiatives. These include the reform of a violent and unaccountable security sector as a part of a broader reconciliation process and the urgent need for a comprehensive indigenous-centered development policy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia
58. Aligning Unevenly: India and the United States
- Author:
- Dinshaw Mistry
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In the early and mid-2000s, US policymakers anticipated India becoming one of America's top global partners. Have New Delhi's policies on key strategic issues actually aligned strongly with US objectives, as would be typical of close partners? An analysis of twelve prominent issues in US-India relations indicates that New Delhi's policies mostly converged moderately, rather than to a high extent, with US objectives. Specifically, the alignment between New Delhi's policies and US objectives was high or moderate-to-high on three issues—UN peacekeeping, nonproliferation export controls, and arms sales. It was moderate or low-to-moderate on six issues—China, Iran, Afghanistan, Indian Ocean security, Pakistan, and bilateral defense cooperation. And it was low or negligible on three issues—nuclear reactor contracts for US firms, nuclear arms control, and the war in Iraq. To be sure, despite the low or negligible convergence, New Delhi did not take an anti-US position on these issues. Four factors explain why New Delhi's policies aligned unevenly with US objectives across the issues: India's strategic interests (that diverged from US interests on some issues); domestic political and economic barriers (that prevented greater convergence between India's policies and US objectives); incentives and disincentives (that induced New Delhi to better align with US objectives); and certain case-specific factors. This analysis suggests that, rather than expecting India to become a close ally, US policymakers should consider it a friendly strategic partner whose policies would align, on the average, moderately with US strategic interests.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Political Economy, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
59. Syria: Fate of Assad Impedes Success of Geneva III
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines developments regarding resolution of the Syrian issue, particularly in light of three key events: Russia’s announcement of a withdrawal, Geneva III talks and the opposition’s latest announcement that they wanted the talks to cease given increasing aggression on civilian areas. For the opposition belonging to the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), Assad cannot have a role in Syria’s political future, particularly given that his regime and its allies is responsible for 95 per cent of the casualties in the country, far exceeding any other actors in Syria, including the Islamic State organisation.(1) This policy brief looks at the outcomes of the third round of Geneva III, what Russia has gained from its intervention and so-called withdrawal, and argues that any future proposals for Syria which maintain Assad’s position will result in continuation of fighting.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Civil War
- Political Geography:
- Syria
60. Transitional Justice: Lessons from the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Martina Fischer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Berghof Foundation
- Abstract:
- The policy brief examines different approaches and initiatives for transitional justice and reconciliation that have been implemented since the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA) ended the war in Bosnia in 1995. It highlights achievements and innovative approaches in processes of dealing with the past as well as shortcomings and obstacles for reconciliation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Transitional Justice, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Balkans
61. Preliminary reflections on the 2016 Liberian National Conflict-Mapping Exercise
- Author:
- Nontobeko Zondi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Since 2009, the Government of Liberia (GoL), working with its national and international partners, has continued to provide leadership in responding to a myriad of critical conflict factors. It has done this through various peacebuilding frameworks, such as the Strategic Roadmap for National Healing, Peacebuilding and Reconciliation in Liberia, the Liberia Peacebuilding Program (LPP) and the Agenda for Transformation (AFT). In addition, Liberia has concluded its post-Ebola recovery plans, supported by the United Nations (UN) and other partners, in the midst of the UN Mission in Liberia’s (UNMIL) transition in 2016, as well as within the context of the country’s 2017 national elections. It was against this backdrop that the Peacebuilding Office (PBO) within the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD) and other partners had to rethink and reprioritise Liberia’s peacebuilding and reconciliation strategies, programmes and interventions, moving forward. As such, a comprehensive conflict-mapping and conflict analysis exercise was pivotal to allow for a systematic and empirical process in which Liberian conflict issues and potential conflict drivers could be identified. This Policy & Practice Brief (PPB) seeks to reflect on the 2016 National Conflict-Mapping Exercise (NCME) process, as well as the methodological approaches used to gather and analyse the data. It further highlights the importance of the NCME as a process and outlines the supportive role of international partners to the PBO, which guaranteed that the process is locally owned and steered by the PBO. Although it has a definitive end in the form of findings, the NCME itself should be seen as an important component for enhancing the coherence and coordination of peacebuilding interventions in Liberia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peacekeeping, Peace, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Liberia
62. The Role of Inclusive Multi-stakeholder Partnerships in Enhancing Conflict Transformation in the Great Lakes
- Author:
- Bernard Okok Obuoga
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Cyclical conflicts which continue to plague the Great Lakes region of Africa necessitate a reflection on the effectiveness of peacebuilding interventions. While many reasons account for this, without knowledge of triggers of relapse into conflict, and without enhancing grassroots-based approaches to managing the causes of conflict, peace will remain elusive under existing intervention frameworks. The Great Lakes Project (GLP), a collaborative initiative by the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD), the Global Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict (GPPAC), and the Nairobi Peace Initiative – Africa (NPI-Africa) – developed a three-year project in 2012, titled “Consolidating Peacebuilding in the Great Lakes of Africa”. The overall purpose of the project was to ensure that local communities were mobilised to engage with, and address, conflict factors through grassroots civil society organisations (CSOs). The project also sought to identify and address the capacity gaps of local CSOs working towards peace and ensure that systems were established to continuously address conflicts in the region. The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) was identified as a critical partner in building peace in the region, considering its extensive network and access to state and non-state actors. This engagement therefore facilitated partnerships between existing CSO-platforms; strengthened their early warning systems and strengthened their conflict management capabilities towards building resilient infrastructures for sustainable peace. While undertaking its mandate, the GLP identified various challenges and policy gaps, which included the lack of strategic approaches to prevent conflict relapse. This paper illustrates and interrogates the dynamics of these shortcomings, and defines the role of inclusive, multi-stakeholder partnerships to address these.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa
63. The institutionalisation of mediation support within the ECOWAS Commission
- Author:
- Brown Odigie
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission established the Mediation Facilitation Division (MFD) in June 2015 to backstop mediation efforts undertaken by its mediation organs, member states, non-state actors and joint initiatives with other international organisations, such as the African Union Commission (AUC) and the United Nations (UN). In January 2016, the structure was further upgraded to a directorate within the Department of Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS). This Policy & Practice Brief (PPB) examines the rationale for taking the bold step to institutionalise a mediation support structure within the ECOWAS Commission; the legal and normative instruments that underpin its mediation interventions; the mandate, vision and scope of operation of the mediation support structure; and the key activities undertaken by the structure within one year of its existence. The PPB identifies the uniqueness of ECOWAS’s experiences in interventions in the 1990s, and the subsequent importance accorded to preventive diplomacy and mediation as a key factor that informed the decision to establish a mediation support structure – in contrast to using an ad hoc arrangement to backstop its mediation efforts in the past. This new arrangement, the PPB argues, will ensure that mistakes such as the marginalisation of ECOWAS in mediation processes in the region, the disconnect between the ECOWAS Commission and its appointed mediators, facilitators and special envoys, are remedied. It will also ensure a coordinated approach to capacity building and mediation knowledge management within the ECOWAS Commission and its institutions, as well as with its partners, including mainstreaming Tracks II and III mediation into official Track I mediation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, and African Union
64. The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region as a peacebuilding instrument for civil society organisations
- Author:
- Patrick Kanyangara
- Publication Date:
- 06-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- This policy paper examines the prospective role of civil society organisations (CSOs) within the mechanisms and structures of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), which was created to address conflict challenges faced by states within the Great Lakes region. The ICGLR was established in 2003 to provide an inclusive platform for countries within the region to work effectively with international actors and CSOs for regional conflict prevention, management and resolution. Although the role of CSOs within the ICGLR initiatives is considered imperative to securing sustainable peace, there remain concerns that the involvement of CSOs is constrained. Through desk research and field surveys, this policy paper explores creative approaches for CSOs to make a valuable impact on the ICGLR initiative. The paper recommends improved and proactive synergy between the ICGLR and CSOs for effective peace and security in the region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa
65. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State in Libya
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The Islamic State has been moving aggressively to exploit the chaos of Libya since last summer, with profound risks for the Mediterranean region and beyond Libya is a perfect breeding ground for an expanded Islamic State, with large amounts of heavy weaponry, systemic lawlessness, a divided population, and sustained armed conflict The group has formed three active and capable groups in Libya-in Tripoli, Fezzan, and Barqa-all of which have conducted deadly attacks in recent months The phenomenon of Islamic State affiliates-beginning in the summer of 2014, before which the group was entirely focused on Iraq and Syria-is actually in the tradition of its arch-rival al-Qaeda the presence and power of the Islamic State in Libya will likely increase as conditions in Syria and Iraq deteriorate for the group, and conditions in Libya continue to worsen.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Libya, and Syria
66. Insurgent Alliances in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Mallory Sutika Sipus
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- One of the contributing factors to Afghanistan’s civil conflict has been the fluidity within military alliances at the sub-national level. This brief examines the circumstances of military alliances between insurgent commanders—what factors play into an alliance and how they are maintained, with assessments resulting from research from the Centre for Conflict and Peace Studies and supported by USIP.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
67. Afghanistan's Continuing Fiscal Crisis: No End In Sight
- Author:
- William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- For several years, Afghanistan’s economy and public finances have worsened, culminating in a full-blown fiscal crisis in 2014. Political uncertainties, the weakening Afghan economy, corruption in tax collection, stagnant government revenues, and increasing expenditures have contributed to the current fiscal impasse. In the absence of bold actions by the Afghan government along with proactive international support to turn around the fiscal situation, the fiscal crisis and its insidious effects will continue.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
68. Promoting Rule of Law: Myth Versus Reality
- Author:
- Christina Murtaugh
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- Rule of law has long been a key international concern, especially for conflict-affected countries, and promoting it is a critical challenge to the international community. This Peace Brief focuses on the misconceptions of what is called the golden hour approach to offer more practicable alternatives. The issue is focus—whether to find a solution among Western paradigms or to empower people, support sustainable change, and provide enough time for the people to act and the process to unfold on their own terms.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Law
69. National Dialogues: A Tool for Conflict Transformation?
- Author:
- Susan Stigant and Elizabeth Murray
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- National dialogue is an increasingly popular tool for conflict resolution and political transformation. It can broaden debate regarding a country’s trajectory beyond the usual elite decision makers; however, it can also be misused and manipulated by leaders to consolidate their power. This brief includes principles to strengthen national dialogue processes and considerations for international actors seeking to support these processes.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Political Economy, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
70. Reviving Afghanistan's Economy
- Author:
- William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Some say reviving the Afghan economy in a time of intensifying violent conflict and declining external financial inflows will be impossible. Expectations need to be kept modest, and measures must go beyond conventional economic approaches in order to be effective. This brief puts forward some outside-the-box ideas, which, combined with greater government effectiveness and, hopefully, reductions in violent conflict, may help turn the economy around.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Central Asia
71. Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations: The Prospect of Reviving Taliban Talks
- Author:
- Moeed Yusuf
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- There are few viable options for resolving Afghanistan’s conflict other than an inclusive peace process between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Momentum toward this goal must be maintained following the “Heart of Asia” Ministerial Conference on December 9, 2015, where Afghan, Pakistani, and U.S. officials renewed their commitment to resuming dialogue. This brief discusses three key concerns that need to be addressed to effectively move the peace process forward and achieve a near-term cease-fire.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Central Asia
72. Conflict Zones, Israel and Diaspora Perspectives in Canadian Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Aya Al-Shachli, Ramina Ghassemi, and Areej Rashid
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- While Canadian Jewish community organizations are actively engaged in lobbying the Canadian government on its foreign policy with Israel and Palestine, it is not at all clear that the perspectives of the Jewish-Israeli diaspora that have emigrated from this conflict zone have been considered. The absence of diaspora voices from the region seems a missed opportunity for the development of a more comprehensive foreign policy position.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, and Diaspora
- Political Geography:
- Canada, Israel, and Palestine
73. Identity in the Pre-Modern Middle East
- Author:
- Berkey Jonathan P.
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- We live in an age of identity politics. We define ourselves by one or more objective measures: measures of race, ethnicity, gender, politics, religion, sexual orientation, to name just a few. Those measures then define who we are to others. They determine our place in society, the communities with which we identify, our attitudes towards others and other communities. The politics of identity are fraught, and they interact in ways that both liberate and confine. On the one hand we prize diversity. On the whole, this is a good thing, since it reflects a larger transformation in American life. Like it or not, the fact is that we are becoming, have become, a “multi-cultural society.” No matter what terms we use to define diversity—racial, ethnic, religious, sexual, gender, whatever—we are more diverse now than we have ever been, and we are destined to grow more so. Multi-culturalism is not an option; it is the future. The only question is how, and how well, we are going to deal with it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Religion, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
74. An Intensified Approach to Combatting the Islamic State
- Author:
- Michele Flournoy and Richard Fontaine
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- In the 11 months since President Barack Obama committed the United States to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), the group has expanded its international reach, metastasized to form offshoots across multiple regions, and increased its perceived momentum. Although U.S. government officials cite a reduction in the overall size of the group’s sanctuary in Iraq and Syria and the killing of thousands of ISIS fighters, the fall of Ramadi and much of Anbar province to the Islamic State served as a wakeup call that current efforts to counter ISIS are not adequate to the task.2 Meanwhile, the threat posed by the terrorist group to Americans at home and abroad appears to be growing as ISIS-inspired individuals conduct attacks targeting Westerners around the globe, including here in the United States.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
75. Defend, Defect, or Desert?: The Future of the Afghan Security Forces
- Author:
- Tyler Jost
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- In "Defend, Defect, or Desert?: The Future of the Afghan Security Forces,” Tyler Jost, a former U.S. Army Company Commander who served two tours in Afghanistan, lays out how the United States can most effectively support the Afghan National Security Forces. Mr. Jost argues that in the coming months, Afghanistan will depend on increasingly independent Afghan security forces to fight a tough insurgency—one that is perhaps even as strong as it was four years ago during the height of U.S. and coalition operations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, War, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
76. Choosing to Return? Prospects for Durable Solutions in Iraq
- Author:
- Rachel Sider
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- In the aftermath of the rapid advance of Daesh through central parts of Iraq, a humanitarian crisis of significant proportion remains. Since March 2015, over 458,000 people have returned to their places of origin. Many have been driven by government guarantees of improved security coupled with a lack of access to land, food and income generating activities in displacement sites. They have returned under precarious conditions, without the support required to ensure progress towards durable solutions, and they rely on assistance to recover and rebuild. Efforts must be made to ensure that returns are safe, dignified and sustainable. This paper outlines the current situation and provides recommendations for the Government of Iraq, UN agencies, donors and NGOs.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Humanitarian Aid, Reconstruction, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Iraq
77. Right to a Future: Empowering refugees from Syria and host governments to face a long-term crisis
- Author:
- David Andres-Vinas, Daniel Gorevan, Martin Hartberg, Melissa Phillips, and Alexandra Saieh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- With no end to the conflict in Syria in sight, the four million people forced to flee the country have no foreseeable prospect of safe return. And as the impact of the crisis on neighbouring countries grows and aid dries up, the situation for these refugees is becoming increasingly dire. This briefing calls for a new approach by the international community, including Syria’s neighbours; one which offers hope, safety and dignity to the millions of refugees, and gives them a chance to contribute to the societies and economies of their hosts.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, and Refugees
- Political Geography:
- Syria
78. The Silence of the Guns: Can the Cease-Fire in Donbass Last?
- Author:
- Stanislav Secrieru
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- For the first time since the outbreak of the war in Donbass, the situation on the frontline is nearly a proper cease-fire. This is the outcome of the interplay of three factors: the political-military balance in Donbass, sanctions and Russia’s military intervention in Syria. Nevertheless, it is premature to assume that military options in Donbass are no longer in the cards. Russia is likely to use force if needed to repel a Ukrainian attempt to retake parts of the area, to obstruct the Minsk process if it goes in a disadvantageous direction for Moscow, or to seize more territory if there is further political and social turmoil in Ukraine. To minimize the risks of an eruption of violence in Donbass, the EU and U.S. should prolong the sanctions, fine-tune the diplomatic pressure on both sides to implement and uphold the Minsk Protocols, and pay more attention to the political and economic transformations in the rest of Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Politics, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
79. AKP Snap Election Tactics: Turmoil in Turkey
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Following the 2015 national election in Turkey the AKP, for the first time since coming to power in 2002, failed to win enough votes to form a majority government. Since the election the AKP has given the impression that it is attempting to form a coalition government, but in reality the party has been employing a number of tactics in order to increase its share of the vote in preparation for a snap election. These tactics have mainly revolved around increasing the nationalist vote and damaging the main Kurdish party. However, these manoeuvres have increased polarisation in Turkey and have resulted in an escalation of the conflict with the Kurds. Worryingly, it has become evident that the AKP aims to win power in the next election at all costs.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Politics, Governance, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
80. Nidaa Tounes Rift Exacerbates Government Crisis
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Nidaa Tounes, a party born post-Tunisian revolution, is currently experiencing internal rifts, which in turn is having an impact on the country’s secular-Islamist ruling government’s ability to move forward. This rift became especially obvious after the party’s founder and leader, Beji Caid Essebsi, won the presidency and consequently resigned as party leader according to Tunisia’s constitutional law. This position paper examines key actors and roots of the party’s rift, how this rift has impacted state institutions and future scenarios for the governing coalition.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Terrorism, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Tunisia
81. What Does New Political Push Mean for Syria?
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Syrian armed opposition’s gains, especially in northern Syria, have stirred Russian and US fears about the possibility of a major regime collapse. This has prompted Moscow to return to the political solution approach to avert further expansion of the Islamic State (IS or Daesh) and to stop the regime’s power from completely dissolving. For the US, this has prompted President Obama to intensify bids to Iran for cooperation to resolve the Syrian crisis. This is in part to prove to his Republican opponents that the nuclear deal will contribute to modifying Iran’s behaviour and will motivate the country to cooperate in resolving the region’s crises rather than exacerbating them. Parallel to the military escalation in Zabadani, Iran re-launched its political initiative, which the Syrian opposition rejected, but which the regime quickly accepted because it guarantees its survival. Turkey has directly entered the fray in an effort to protect its interests in northern Syria, managing to broker a US agreement to establish an IS-free zone (which Turkey also intends to be Kurd-free).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Syria
82. Libyan Dialogue: Uphill Battle, Limited Chances for Success
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As analysts and observers attempt to parse out the intricacies of the current Libyan conflict, the United Nations is sponsoring a dialogue to bring together the warring parties and attempt to find a political solution. This paper proposes that while there are factors which increase the likelihood of successful dialogue, the reality is that internal disputes within each of the political parties, as well as regional and international attention to other, more pressing matters, mean that the dialogue is actually an uphill battle.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, Political Parties, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
83. Cybersecurity and Stability in the Gulf
- Author:
- James Andrew Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Gulf has become a flashpoint for cyber conflict. Cyberspace has become an arena for covert struggle, with the United States, Israel and other nations on one side, and Iran and Russia on the other. Iran has far outpaced the GCC states in developing its cyber capabilities, both for monitoring internal dissent and deploying hackers to disrupt or attack foreign targets. Several such attacks over the past two years were likely either directed or permitted by Iranian state authorities. Even if Iran holds back from offensive actions as nuclear talks progress, the growth in Iranian capabilities remains a potential security threat for other Gulf states. The GCC countries have begun to develop their defensive capabilities, but they will need to expand their defenses and collaborate more effectively to deter future threats.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, Development, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
84. Youth Radicalization in Pakistan
- Author:
- Raheem ul Haque
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Pakistani leaders face serious domestic extremism challenges; more than 47,000 thousand lives have been lost in terrorism-related violence in Pakistan over the past decade. Effective counter-radicalization processes must take into account Pakistan's large young adult population (ages 15-29), which collectively accounts for at least 30 percent of the overall population. Youth radicalization in Pakistan can be understood as the product of an exclusively Islamic identity—meaning a majority of youth identify primarily through their religion over nationality— combined with a broader reactive movement comprised of militant, political and missionary organizations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Demographics, Islam, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia
85. The Taliban's View of the 2014 Elections
- Author:
- Michael Semple
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Afghan Taliban Movement has publicly rejected the legitimacy of the April 2014 elections. The Taliban's military leadership has issued instructions to officials and commanders to disrupt the elections but has left field commanders with wide discretion on how to go about doing so. Many in the Taliban follow the electoral contest closely and comment on developments in terms very similar to how they are described by the political and educated class in Kabul. However, the anti-election sentiment in the Taliban leaves no scope for any faction to cooperate with the process. The Taliban will likely be able to intensify violence approaching the election, but not sufficiently to derail the overall process.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Islam, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
86. Conflict Transformation: Transforming cultures of violence to overcome injustice and poverty
- Author:
- Olloriak Sawade
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- All people have a fundamental right to life and security. Oxfam works to ensure this right is respected, not only by responding to humanitarian emergencies, but by addressing the violent conflict which, as its Humanitarian Strategy 2020 recognises, is one of the key drivers of poverty. That is why conflict transformation has become one of the 'crosscutting issues' running through Oxfam's programmes and tackling some of the key driving factors that fuel direct, cultural and structural violence.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil Society, Humanitarian Aid, and Power Politics
87. In the Balance: Searching for protection in eastern DRC
- Author:
- Hannah Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- As 2014 starts, there are reasons to hope that peace may be in sight in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). National initiatives and committed regional and international political engagement in 2013 led to important advances and new framework agreements to resolve the conflict and insecurity. However, the people Oxfam talked to across eastern DRC reported that their situation remains precarious, particularly in remote areas where there is little state presence. Ongoing national, regional and international engagement is needed, as well as efforts to ensure that high level agreements and initiatives are systematically linked to community experiences. Without these, it is possible that this rare opportunity will be wasted.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa
88. Why Afghanistan's Provincial Council Elections Matter
- Author:
- Noah Coburn and Anna Larson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan's Provincial Councils (PCs) represent one of the best hopes for the future of local democracy in Afghanistan. Yet since their shaky formation in 2005, they continue to be overlooked by international actors preferring to interact with parliamentarians, ministers and appointed governors. The significance assigned by Afghans to winning PC seats has steadily increased over the last decade. Indeed, for many, the April 5 PC elections will do more than the presidential poll to determine whether democratic practices continue to take root in local politics. PC elections offer a chance to build local, personal ties and accountability mechanisms connecting to increasingly centralized government resources, and, in particular, an opportunity for a new generation of young, motivated Afghans to begin their political careers. As the locally-visible manifestation of the Afghan political system, PCs are the immediate face of democracy—or a lack thereof—for many Afghans. In 2009, with most news stories covering the widespread fraud in the presidential contest, the uproar over the fraud and delay throughout the PC polling process rarely received coverage on newspaper front pages. Yet those problems contributed significantly to people's sense of alienation and disillusionment with their country's political actors and electoral institutions. In spite of these experiences, Afghans are once again preparing to go to the polls. Voters, candidates, parties and local organizations are putting greater emphasis than ever on the process of provincial council polling—expressing concern about the prospects for fraud, mobilizing around their candidates and campaigning in earnest. If due attention to the process is not paid by the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and by international agencies, popular participation in future elections could drop. Prospects for Afghan democratization will depend much on how these and future provincial-level elections are conducted.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Demographics, Development, Islam, Politics, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
89. Last Chance: The International Community and the 2014 Afghan Elections
- Author:
- Scott S. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan's democratic development has taken place within the tight embrace of international support and the conception of "free and fair" elections that comes with it, but Afghan and inter-national views on what to expect from elections have diverged in the past, leading to a deepening of distrust between the Karzai-led Afghan government and the international community. The run-up to the 2014 presidential elections has been shaped by this distrust. Nonetheless, with the breakdown of the reconciliation effort with the Taliban and uncertainty about the result of the transition process due to President Hamid Karzai's unexpected refusal to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), the April 5 election is the only remaining opportunity for a political resolution of the continuing crisis in Afghanistan. A more complete understanding of the 2009 elections—how they were and were not a disaster—can help to narrow the gap between Afghan and international expectations; and an understanding of some of the changes that have occurred in Afghan society since 2009 can offer reason for optimism that the election will at the least create space for political elites to address the root causes of the crisis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Corruption, Democratization, Political Economy, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
90. Reintegrating Armed Groups in Afghanistan: Lessons from the Past
- Author:
- Deedee Derksen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- A piecemeal approach to disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) in Afghanistan, with four DDR programs since 2001 each targeting specific groups, has yielded limited results, mostly due to an extremely adverse political environment. Comprehensive DDR is unlikely to work without a settlement that includes all armed groups. The success of such a deal would in turn hinge on the successful reintegration of commanders and fighters. Sequencing DDR in the conventional way may not work; reintegration might better precede disarmament.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
91. Egypt's Solvency Crisis
- Author:
- Steven A. Cook
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Egypt is experiencing a deep economic crisis. The country's foreign currency r e serves are less than half of what they were before the January 2011 uprising, threatening Egypt's ability to pay for food and fuel. Egypt's budget deficit is 14 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and its overall debt, which is the result of accumulated deficits, is more than the country's economic output. In this difficult economic climate, roughly 4 5 percent of Egyptians live on less than two dollars per day. Inflation, which reached as high as 12.97 percent after the July 2013 military coup, is currently at 11.4 percent. Tourism revenue—traditionally a primary source of foreign currency along with Suez Canal tolls and remittances from Egyptians working abroad—is less than half of what it was in the last full year before the uprising. Foreign direct investment has dried up outside the energy sector. Unemployment remains high at 13.4 percent. Among the unemployed, 71 percent are between fifteen and twenty-nine years old. This economic weakness makes it politically difficult to address the problems that contribute to a potential solvency crisis because the necessary reforms will impose hardship on a population that is already experiencing economic pain.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Economics, Regime Change, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt
92. Creating Sustainable Peacekeeping Capability in Africa
- Author:
- Daniel Hampton
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Over 60,000 African troops from 39 different nations serve in peace operations worldwide. Maintaining African peacekeeping capability requires an ongoing training process to sustain the skill proficiency of troop contingents for rapid deployment and crisis response. Continued reliance on international trainers undercuts the institutionalization of African peacekeeping capability. An African-led training model would not only be more sustainable but would draw on the relevant, practical experience that African peacekeepers have gained over the years.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa
93. The Central African Republic – a history of a collapse foretold?
- Author:
- Morten Bøås
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Political instability and administrative weakness have been permanent features of the Central African Republic (CAR) ever since independence. This is, therefore, the history of a collapse foretold. Michel Djotodia may have had good intentions when he put together the Séléka alliance; the problem was that the only thing that kept it together was the desire to get rid of François Bozizé. When Bozizé was gone, the coalition's internal coherence also disappeared. Thus, for lack of other options, the alliance members continued to make their livelihoods based on plunder. As the situation worsened, the communities plundered established their own militias, and the stage was set for a simmering sectarian conflict between Christians and Muslims. It is in this mess of communal violence that the international forces are supposed to re-establish law and order. The main challenge, however, is how to avoid adding fuel to the sectarian fire. The international forces must tread carefully, and any attempt at disarming militias must be conducted with this in mind. What has happened and is happening is tragic, but it is neither genocide nor a full-blown sectarian conflict. This can still be avoided if the international forces behave impartially with regard to the two main religious communities in the country.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Religion, Sectarian violence, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa
94. Russian thinking in the Ukraine crisis: From drawing a line of defence to seeing a threat to national security
- Author:
- Katri Pynnöniemi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Three articles written by Russian foreign policy analyst Sergei Karaganov and published at the turning points of the Ukraine conflict shed light on how the reasoning on Russia's strategic interests in Ukraine has evolved amid the conflict. The meaning of the conflict, as explained in the first essay, is that Russia is drawing a line of defence against Western interference in its sphere of interest. In the second essay, the assertion that with the Crimean operation Russia has forced the West to put an end to the Cold War, is reconfigured into a choice that Russia needs to make between the Western or non-Western path. Finally, in an essay written after the downing of flight MH17, it is argued that without de-escalation the situation in Donbass will become a threat to Russian national security. The evolution of the argumentation shows that some sort of 'reality check' has occurred in the vicinity of the general line. However, while the dangers inherent in the conflict are recognized, Karaganov fails to acknowledge Russia's active involvement in the conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
95. TSG IntelBrief: Foreign Fighters in Syria: A Growing Threat
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The number of foreign fighters is high, 12,000 and counting, and the spread of countries they come from covers much of the globe. Two recent events involving foreign fighters show the radicalizing influence of the war. With the support to bolster Syria's more secular rebel forces at times inconsistent and tepid, the lack of an alternative has accelerated a natural gravitation towards extremist elements. It will be hard to know which returnees pose a threat, and harder still to deal with them. Given that the number of foreign fighters already exceeds those that went to Afghanistan, government resources will be severely strained to monitor all returnees and will have to rely on the help of local communities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Syria
96. TSG IntelBrief: : Foreign Fighters from North Africa in Syria and Iraq
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- No region has seen more of its people travel to fight in Syria than North Africa; more than 3,000 Tunisians have traveled there as of last April, and more than 1,500 Moroccans This is a repeat of a decade ago when large numbers of North Africans traveled to Iraq to fight there as well, in proportions far above those of neighboring countries A significant number of recent North African fighters have conducted suicide bombings in both Iraq and Syria, highlighting that the deadly ideological message of the so-called Islamic State (IS) and other extremist groups is finding purchase in North Africa The reasons for this export of extremists include incomplete political reforms that have failed to redress serious societal issues, persistent high youth unemployment, and a failure to cope with the apparent high levels of disaffection, despair, and anger that drive people to choose violent extremism.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Syria
97. TSG IntelBrief:: The Bomb-Proof Finances of the Islamic State
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- Attacking the finances of the so-called Islamic State (IS) with limited collateral damage will be orders of magnitude more difficult than attacking its military factions The group has thoroughly embedded itself into local and regional economies in Syria and Iraq, and damaging its finances while not devastating civilian populations will be as difficult as it is necessary IS oil revenues might be the easiest to disrupt but such action comes with significant collateral economic damage, while taxes, tolls, extortion, and food sales generate more income while remaining highly resistant to external forces In the areas under its control, IS has been providing social services as well as delivering levels of fuel, electricity, and food to populations utterly without recourse, meaning the group needs to be replaced and not simply removed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
98. TSG IntelBrief: Turkey Steps In: A Good Thing?
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The Turkish parliament's vote to authorize the deployment of military forces in Syria and Iraq provided a legal and official framework for such action It may appear to be a positive step in degrading and destroying the putative Islamic State (IS), however, the parliament in its vote used the broader term "terrorist organizations," thus the landscape for Turkey, Syria-Iraq, and regional states and interests remains exceptionally complex Though there is nearly universal and implacable opposition to IS among all actors in Syria and Iraq, Turkey's future role-depending on steps taken-could aggravate tensions not only with Arab Gulf states and Kurdish elements in Syria and Iraq, but Iran, Russia, and the Iraqi government Turkey's desire to create a buffer zone on the Syrian side of its common border remains one of the most sensitive issues Amid reports of increased IS pressure on Kobani, Kurdish PKK has insinuated Turkey will be to blame-not IS-for creating conditions for the refugee crisis, and threatens to resume opposition activity in Turkey. The Turkish parliament's vote Thursday to authorize use of its army and military facilities in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS) may appear at first look to be a positive step for the broader coalition. The measures-to be determined-are in addition to any financial, diplomatic, humanitarian, and support activities for the anti-IS coalition. However, parliament's vote did not entail Turkey's officially joining the coalition. After the recent deal-details yet to be revealed-to bring home over 40 hostages IS had taken from Turkey's consulate in Mosul, Iraq, in June 2014, pressure increased for Turkey to take military steps in the anti-IS fight. A factor increasing the possibility of military action is Turkish special operations forces' guarding the tomb of Suleyman Shah, a Turkish enclave in Syria reported to be increasingly surrounded by IS. Though there is almost universal animus toward IS in the region, there is also nearly uniform resistance to Turkey's perceived unilateral military involvement in Syria and Iraq, outside the framework of the anti-IS coalition. Turkey's next moves may cause more conflict than benefit in the anti-IS fight. Indeed, the political landscape for Turkey's moves at home and abroad remains extraordinarily complex.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
99. The Korean Peninsula: Yesterday and Today
- Author:
- Paul Dickler
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- This article will take a snapshot of Korea today and look back to the past to see the origins. It will offer many comparisons between North and South Korea. Why have North Korea (The Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea--DPRK) and South Korea (Republic of Korea—ROK) become what they are in the present, and what are the most likely scenarios for their future? Is reunification likely, or even desired by Koreans today? Are the troop commitments from the United States going to last another 60 years, or will events change that dynamic?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Israel
100. Licensing Afghan Opium for Medicinal Use: Why It Won't Work
- Author:
- David Mansfield and William A. Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- With large increases in Afghan opium cultivation and production in 2013 and 2014, there is a risk that resulting frustration may give rise to a search for extreme but unproductive solutions. There are no easy solutions to the illegal narcotics problem. The proposal that Afghanistan could shift to licensed production of opium for pain medications will not work. Due to severe problems with governance, rule of law and security, opium licensing in Afghanistan would be subject to extremely high leakages. Afghanistan's comparative advantage in supplying the illicit market means that it would likely expand cultivation to meet demand in both markets. Afghanistan is a high-cost producer of opium, and prices for licensed opium are much lower than on the illegal market, so profits might well be marginal or even negative. Existing producers of licensed opiates— Australia, Turkey, India, France and others—would strongly oppose any move to let Afghanistan become a competitor on the licensed market. Even if a more liberalized market for opiates is envisioned, technological advances and modern techniques in other countries mean that Afghanistan could not be a competitive producer.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Turkey, India, France, and Australia