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302. Paper Versus Steel: Haiti's Challenge of Constitutional Reform
- Author:
- Robert Perito and Jasenka Jocic
- Publication Date:
- 01-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Haiti's constitution was adopted on March 29, 1987 when over 90 percent of the voters approved it in a popular referendum. The result was not surprising. Among the most democratic in the world, Haiti's constitution was proposed in the aftermath of the brutal Duvalier dictatorship and seemed to promise an end to arbitrary and violent rule. Unfortunately, that was not the case as the country endured two more decades of turmoil. In the period of instability following adoption of the constitution, its provisions were more often ignored or violated than observed.
- Topic:
- Government, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Caribbean, and Haiti
303. The AK Party Closure Case: Domestic Situation and International Reactions
- Author:
- Hasan Kösebalaban
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The closure case against AK Party heralds a new era in Turkish politics marked by the increased intervention of the judiciary in politics. Inasmuch as the governing party enjoys support of half of the Turkish electorate, the case has harmed the image of Turkish democracy and consequently risks jeopardizing Turkey's quest for full membership in the EU. The overall reaction of the West to the case indicates that the Western political and intellectual elites avoid the conventional Islamist secularist dichatomy in interpreting Turkish politics. To-level EU bureaucrats have emphasized that closure would seriously jeopardize the process of membership. AK Party needs to accelerate the democratization process by focusing on the rest of the constitutional reforms required for EU membership.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
304. The Headscarf Ban: A Quest for Solutions
- Author:
- Mustafa Şentop
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- Female students with headscarf are currently prevented to enter the university in Turkey although there is no legal ground for such a ban. The ongoing controversy about the type of clothing for female students at the higher education institutions has become more intensified since the recent constitutional change in February 2008 to lift the de facto headscarf ban. The debate over this question revolves around whether headscarf is a religious attire or a political symbol, whether it should be banned to protect the secular foundations of the state or conversely allowed on the basis of individual freedom of religion as a corollary of secularism. The solution lies in the implementation of constitutional amendments without a further delay.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Education, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
305. The AKP and the Kurdish Issue: What Went Wrong?
- Author:
- Rabia Karakaya Polat
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- In the parliamentary elections of July 22, 2007, AKP (Justice and Development Party) won 47% of the votes, obtaining a very strong mandate to take issue with Turkey's outstanding problems. In the predominantly Kurdish east and southeast region, the AKP doubled its vote from 26% to 53%. The AKP seemed to have persuaded the Kurds thanks to the party's earlier moves to solve the Kurdish problem by granting more rights and freedoms as well as jobs and economic prosperity. Having started the negotiation process with the EU and obtaining such a strong mandate from the Kurdish voters, why did the AKP turn its back to the Kurdish issue? This can be explained with reference to three groups of factors working at the domestic, the EU and international levels.
- Topic:
- Political Economy and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan
306. Bolivia: Rescuing the New Constitution and Democratic Stability -- Latin America Briefing N°18
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- President Evo Morales's efforts to consolidate sweeping reforms on the basis of a controversial new constitution have steered Bolivia into a cul-de-sac. On 8 December 2007, his supporters in the Constituent Assembly (CA) provisionally passed the text by running roughshod over procedures and virtually excluding opposition delegates. Weak attempts to bridge the deepening divide have failed, increasing potential for a violent confrontation both sides still seem to wish to avoid. Openly defying Morales in May 2008, however, Santa Cruz massively approved the department's autonomy statutes by referendum. Two other eastern lowland departments followed suit, with the fourth expected to do so on 22 June. Morales is pushing for final adoption of the constitution by referendum and a popular vote of confidence. The Organization of American States (OAS), the European Union (EU) and several European countries, and the Group of Friends (Argentina, Brazil and Colombia) should provide good offices to help the government and opposition reach urgent agreement on a revised constitution that can keep the country together.
- Topic:
- Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
307. Yemen: Fear of Failure
- Author:
- Ginny Hill
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Yemen presents a potent combination of problems for policy-makers confronting the prospect of state failure in this strategically important Red Sea country. It is the poorest state in the Arab world, with high levels of unemployment, rapid population growth and dwindling water resources. President Saleh faces an intermittent civil war in the north, a southern separatist movement and resurgent terrorist groups. Yemen's jihadi networks appear to be growing as operating conditions in Iraq and Saudi Arabia become more difficult. The underlying drivers for future instability are economic. The state budget is heavily dependent on revenue from dwindling oil supplies. Yemen's window of opportunity to shape its own future and create a post-oil economy is narrowing.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
308. Programme Insights: The Africa Women's Protocol -- Popularising the Africa Women's Protocol: The Experience of Malawi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Oxfam's mission is to work with others to overcome poverty and suffering. Our interpretation of poverty goes beyond lack of finances to encompass lack of capabilities, powerlessness, and inequality. Our fight to overcome poverty and suffering focuses on the right to a sustainable livelihood, water, education, health, protection and security, a voice in public life, and freedom from discrimination. The promotion of gender equality and women's rights is therefore at the heart of our efforts.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Government, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Malawi
309. PolicyWatch #1403: Livni's Outlook: Political and Policy Options in Israel
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In the wake of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's narrow Kadima party victory over Shaul Mofaz last week, Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert resigned on Sunday night. The following day, Israeli president Shimon Peres asked Livni to form a new governing coalition, but if she is unable to do so in the next six weeks, Israel will head for new elections. Regardless of the coalition's makeup, prospects remain bleak in the short term for a breakthrough on either the Palestinian or Syrian track.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria
310. PolicyWatch #1405: The Importance of Iraq's Provincial Elections
- Author:
- Nazar Janabi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On September 22, the Iraqi parliament belatedly passed a provincial elections law, ending a long and costly deadlock. Parliament ratified the initial version of the law on July 22, but it was later vetoed by two members of Iraq's presidency council. This time it is likely that the bill will survive council scrutiny because of the compromises and concessions made in the long negotiation process. Nevertheless, passing the law marks only the beginning of a vital political transition that could lead to either a unified democratic state or a fractured sectarian country prone to foreign influence.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
311. PolicyWatch #1429: Livni vs. Netanyahu: From One Election to the Next
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 11-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 10, Israelis head to their first national election in nearly three years. With the exception of the 1977 election, this will be the only Israeli campaign in which no incumbent has run for the office of prime minister. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni leads the Kadima party, which is neck and neck with Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud party; each is expected to garner approximately 30 seats in the 120-member Israeli parliament. Since their views on the peace process differ, the election's outcome will directly affect U.S. regional policy and the future of the Annapolis process.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Israel
312. AK Party Survives Closure Case: What Is Next?
- Author:
- Ihsan D. Dagi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The Constitutional Court ruled not to close down the AK Party, relieving Turkey from an unprecedented level of political uncertainty, social and economic turmoil, and potential chaos. Instead, the court chose to keep the ruling party under close scrutiny by declaring it “a focal point of anti-secular activities,” and imposing financial measures.
- Topic:
- Government, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
313. PolicyWatch #1397: Kirkuk Derails Iraq's Election Law
- Author:
- Nazar Janabi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 7, the Iraqi parliament went on summer recess after failing to pass a critical election law, delaying the country's provincial elections until sometime next year. The failure comes after the parliament successfully passed the law on July 22, only to be vetoed by the Iraqi Presidency Council in less than thirty-six hours. The core dispute involves the oil-rich Kirkuk province, which is currently witnessing an alarming escalation of demonstrations and politically motivated attacks. This forced Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki to send his defense minister and an Iraqi brigade to the region in an attempt to deter further problems. As a result of Baghdad's political squabbling, the desperately needed provincial elections may seem unattainable.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
314. PolicyWatch #1393: Olmert's Announcement Fuels Uncertainty in Israel
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced yesterday that he will not compete in his party's September primary and will resign as premier once a new leader is elected. The move ends Olmert's two and half years as Israeli premier, a post he took up after Ariel Sharon's debilitating stroke in January 2006. High-profile allegations of financial wrongdoing have cast a shadow over his administration in past months, and until recently, he pledged he would only leave if there were a formal indictment. His announcement comes at a critical time for Israel and will certainly lead to sense of uncertainty about the future.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
315. PolicyWatch #1391: Can Lebanon's March 14 Reverse the Tide?
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This week, Lebanon's new national unity government is slated to announce its ministerial statement (bayan waziri), the policy document that will define Beirut's working parameters and agenda through the spring 2009 elections. For the pro-West majority March 14 coalition, the priority will be to incorporate into the statement a reference to UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701, which prohibits weapons movement to Hizballah and expands government sovereignty throughout Lebanon. Hizballah, for its part, will look to maintain the legitimacy of "the resistance." Although March 14 still maintains a government majority, three years of hostility and self-inflicted wounds have left the ruling party dramatically weakened, making it unclear whether the coalition will be able to prevent Hizballah from consolidating further political gains.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
316. PolicyWatch #1383: Domestic and Regional Politics Delay U.S.-Iraqi Security Agreement
- Author:
- Nazar Janabi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- While experts negotiate the technical aspects of a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) -- an arrangement that would govern future security relations between Iraq and the United States -- Iraqi politicians are engaged in a rhetorical campaign against such an agreement, making it nearly impossible to finalize a deal by this summer. Meanwhile, the escalating debate now includes Iraq's neighbors, with top Iranian officials expressing their opposition to any kind of security arrangement.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
317. PolicyWatch #1380: Ahmadinezhad Deflects Critcism with Attacks on Clerics
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In late May, an official close to Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad publicly accused more than forty high-ranking government officials -- including some of the country's most powerful clerics -- of economic corruption. These unprecedented revelations may signal the start of a significant power struggle inside the Iranian government, one likely to intensify between now and the May 2009 presidential election.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
318. PolicyWatch #1378: Ending (or Deepening) the Crisis in Lebanon: The Role of Electoral Reform
- Author:
- Jean-Pierre Katrib
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The May 25 election of Gen. Michel Suleiman as Lebanon's twelfth president was a central element of the Qatari-brokered compromise between the March 14 coalition and the Hizballah-led opposition. The agreement was greeted with relief in Washington and other international capitals, allaying fears that Lebanon was once again heading toward civil war. Now that Fouad Siniora has been re-designated as prime minister, the Doha agreement's remaining elements include the difficult task of establishing a "national unity government" and holding parliamentary elections in 2009. The new law governing those elections will determine whether Lebanon will have a solid future foundation or if the day of final reckoning has been merely postponed.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Lebanon
319. PolicyWatch #1374: Kuwaiti Elections: Democracy in Action, or Inaction?
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji and David Pollock
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Tomorrow, Kuwait's nearly 400,000 voters -- more than half of them women -- will go to the polls to elect a new parliament. The incoming body will replace the 2006 parliament that was dissolved by the ruling emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Sabah, for failing to work together with the cabinet. Kuwait's parliament is relatively powerful compared to others in the region, but tension with the royal family has often produced only deadlock. Still, the elections are an important and interesting exercise in Arab democracy and may even produce a more constructive political environment.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Gender Issues, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Kuwait
320. PolicyWatch #1364: Iranian Parliamentary Elections and Ahmadinezhad's Discontents
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 25, a second round of voting will determine the remaining eighty-eight seats of the Iranian Majlis. The first round, held on March 14, decided 202 seats and was considered a defeat for both the reformists and President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. His reaction to the setback -- the dismissal of Interior Minister Mustafa Pur-Muhammadi, responsible for conducting the election -- is indicative of the difficult times ahead for the president and his allies, whose public and official support is steadily diminishing.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
321. PolicyWatch #1363: Electoral and Social Tensions Spike in Egypt
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On April 8, Egypt held elections for nearly 53,000 municipal representatives. Not surprisingly, participation was abysmal: Egypt's ruling faction, the National Democratic Party (NDP), ran unopposed for more than 80 percent of the seats, while the Muslim Brotherhood -- the country's only real opposition party -- boycotted the contest in response to government harassment. Although the White House issued a statement expressing concern about "widespread electoral violations," these issues represent only a fraction of Egypt's domestic problems, which also include food shortages, labor unrest, and increasing Islamist social and political penetration. Complicating matters, these crises coincide with the first political transition in decades -- the impeding retirement of eighty-year-old President Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled since 1981. Taken together, these developments raise the specter of instability for a key U.S. ally.
- Topic:
- Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Egypt
322. PolicyWatch #1355: Will the Turkish Constitutional Court Ban the AKP?
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay, H. Akin Unver, and Hale Arifagaoglu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On March 14, Turkey's chief prosecutor, Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya, filed a case with the country's Constitutional Court asking it to shut down the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and ban seventy-one of its members from seeking elected office for five years. He accused the party of spearheading "anti-secular activities" in violation of the Turkish constitution. Although the court's disposition is uncertain, the case is likely to strengthen the AKP regardless of the outcome.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Government, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
323. PolicyWatch #1351: Will the Damascus Arab Summit Be Convened?
- Author:
- Hassan Barari
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In the Middle East, it is widely believed that Syria is obstructing the election of a new Lebanese president. Amid this crisis, many are beginning to doubt whether the next Arab League summit, scheduled to open in Damascus at month's end, will take place at all.
- Topic:
- Democratization, International Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
324. PolicyWatch #1349: Who Represents the Iraqi Sunnis?
- Author:
- Nazar Janabi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Since the fall of Saddam Hussein, Sunnis in Anbar and other western Iraqi provinces have struggled to develop a coherent and representative political leadership. The recently formed Iraqi Awakening Convention (IAC) -- a collective of so-called "Awakening council" leaders -- could represent the next step in that evolution and, if nurtured, make a significant contribution to broader political reconciliation. It will also mean, however, that current elected leaders will have to give way to new local leaders or compete politically with them, since it is pointless to compete violently given the asymmetry of the current power balance.
- Topic:
- Islam, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
325. PolicyWatch #1342: Iran's Parliamentary Elections: Assured Victory for the Supreme Leader
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Iran's March 14 parliamentary elections approach, the prospects for the reformist/technocratic coalition are predictably bleak. Yet, President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad is expected to lose ground as well. Although his conservative critics are likely to pick up a significant number of seats, the big winner will be Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose role as arbiter and decisionmaker will be reinforced even more.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
326. PolicyWatch #1341: Pakistani Elections and the Middle East
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- After a six-week delay following the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, Pakistanis will go to the polls on February 18 to elect a new National Assembly. Pakistan and Afghanistan are "where many of our most important interests intersect," as Director of National Intelligence J. Michael McConnell told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on February 5. Accordingly, the election results could affect the position of a key U.S. ally in the war on terror -- the increasingly unpopular President Pervez Musharraf.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Asia
327. Kenya: Setting the Stage for Durable Peace?
- Author:
- Dorina Bekoe
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The botched results from the December 27, 2007 presidential elections in Kenya sparked a wave of violence across the country that left more than 1,000 dead and 600,000 displaced. Incumbent president Mwai Kibaki, representing the ruling Party of National Unity (PNU), was declared the winner of the presidential polls over Raila Odinga, of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Supporters of the ODM, which had won 99 parliamentary seats against PNU's 43 (out of 210 elected seats), charged that the election had been rigged. The chairman of the Electoral Commission of Kenya has since stated that the PNU and the ODM-K (an allied party) forced him to call the election, even with irregularities in the tallying.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
328. Analyzing Iran's Domestic Political Landscape
- Author:
- Kelly Campbell
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The results of Iran's March 14, 2008 parliamentary elections-a 70 percent victory for conservatives within Iran-came as little surprise. The ruling elite disqualified approximately 1,700 reformist candidates before the elections, minimizing the risk of a conservative defeat. However, the results revealed a growing divide between conservatives allied with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a "third way" movement led by pragmatic conservatives who, though loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei, are critical of Ahmadinejad's economic policies and confrontational rhetoric with the West. The surprising electoral success of these pragmatic conservatives may pose a significant challenge to Ahmadinejad in Iran's 2009 presidential elections.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
329. Opposition Alliances and Democratization in Egypt
- Author:
- Hesham Sallam
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- What is the future of democracy in Egypt? What are the prospects for cooperation between the country's Islamist and non-Islamist political opposition groups? How can such cooperation be strengthened? These questions were at the forefront of discussions at the Second Annual Wasat Generation Dialogue, held in Cairo Egypt May 27-29, 2008 and hosted by USIP, the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, and Georgetown University's Center for Democracy and Civil Society. An outgrowth of USIP's Arab Political Oppositions Project (APOP), this not-for-attribution dialogue brought together a select group of Egyptian political leaders, American academics and U.S. democracy-promoters. The conference provided a unique venue to explore the prospects for enhancing political cooperation across the ideological/religious divide in the Egyptian political arena. It also highlighted the potential to build bridges of cooperation among a new generation of political activists.
- Topic:
- Government, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Egypt
330. Joe Biden: A Realist Cold War Liberal
- Author:
- Nuh Yilmaz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- Joe Biden was selected as Barack Obama's vice presidential candidate largely because of his expertise in foreign policy. Traditionally, in U.S. politics, Dick Cheney-like strong vice presidents are exception, not the rule. It is wiser to focus on Obama's foreign policy outlook rather than Biden's, which would benefit Turkey in the long run with its realistic tendencies. Biden's voting pattern, as it is displayed in three different issues (Cyprus- Armenian Issue-Iraq) does not seem friendly to the Turkish position. However, Biden as a statesman would not create extra problems for Turkey at the expense of U.S national interests. In all of these issues, the person that should be watched carefully is Obama, not Biden. Spending more energy to analyze Obama's geopolitical priorities can benefit Turkey in the long run.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, and Balkans
331. Bridging the Social Security Divide: Lessons From Abroad
- Author:
- R. Kent Weaver
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Efforts by President George W. Bush to promote major reforms in the Social Security retirement program have not led to policy change, but rather to increased polarization between the two parties. And the longer we wait to address Social Security's long-term funding problem, the bigger and more painful the changes will need to be.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
332. Sarkozy og Vichy-syndromet
- Author:
- Cecilie Felicia Stokholm Banke
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Den franske præsident gjorde sig i begyndelsen af 2008 bemærket med sit forslag om Holocaust-undervisning for alle børn i 10-års alderen. Men Frankrig har længe været foregangsland for bevarelsen af mindet om Holocaust. Sarkozy gør reelt, hvad andre regeringsledere har gjort før ham. Han inddrager Holocaust – Shoah – i sin egen politiske strategi. Og det siger mere om, hvilken betydning mindet om Holocaust har i den internationale politiske kultur, end det siger om Sarkozy.
- Topic:
- Education, Genocide, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
333. Fragile States
- Author:
- Mark McGillivray, Wim Naudé, and Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Many of the world's poorest countries can be described as “fragile states” wherein governments cannot or will not provide an environment for households to reduce, mitigate or cope with poverty and other risks to well-being. Many of these states are in conflict or just emerging from conflict. The UNU-WIDER project “Fragility and Development” explored state fragility and its relationship to household vulnerability, noting that there is a lack of research on the economic dimensions of conflict, aid and development in fragile states. This research brief provides a summary of the various contributions made by this project, including case studies on Iraq, Kosovo, Palestine and Somalia. It also addresses a number of pertinent questions. When are states fragile? What are the costs that fragile states impose on their people and the international community? Should the sovereignty of fragile states be reconsidered? And how can aid flows to fragile states be made more effective?
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, Post Colonialism, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Palestine, Kosovo, and Somalia
334. Russia's Politics Amidst the Global Economic Crisis An Empty Scoreboard?
- Author:
- Vadim Kononenko
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The global financial crisis has had both an economic and a political impact on Russia. Inasmuch as Russia's political system is infused with business interests and economic considerations, the crisis presents an external and unexpected challenge to the system in terms of rocking the balance between the elite groups. In effect, the crisis calls into question the assumption that the economic and social stability of the Putin years has been successfully sustained during Medvedev's presidency. The Kremlin's response to the rapidly changing situation has been essentially conservative and geared towards strengthening the regime rather than addressing the challenges stemming from the crisis. The anti-crisis measures that are being taken reveal that the government is relying on its finance reserves as the ultimate means to solve the problem rather than reforming state institutions. The president, the government and the key business groups have yet to define the terms of their relationship in the new situation. The plans to increase state control over companies as a means of tackling the crisis are problematic and likely to lead to an intensification of the struggle between the elites. At the same time, as the state takes on even more responsibility, the question of its efficiency becomes more pertinent in the crisis conditions. The return of Vladimir Putin as president remains uncertain despite the constitutional change initiated by Medvedev. His return becomes more probable if the crisis lingers and the overall situation worsens, thus prompting the return of the “national leader” to the driver's seat. The crisis alone cannot lead to major political or social turmoil or a regime change, but it nonetheless presents a major challenge for Russia in the short-term perspective. Ultimately, the outcome of the crisis will depend on how well the incumbent leadership is able to maintain a balance between tackling the crisis and protecting its own interests and legitimacy.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia
335. Governance through Civil Society Engagement in Asia
- Author:
- Vesselin Popovski, G Shabbir Cheema, Cameron Lowry, and Mark Notaras
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Scholars and development practitioners recognize the centrality of governance capacity to achieve sustainable peace and development objectives, including the eradication of extreme poverty, access to services and livelihoods, promotion of economic growth, environmental protection and gender equality among others. With these in view, developing countries are emphasizing the need to improve governance systems and processes to promote people-centered sustainability. The United Nations, development banks, bilateral donors and private sector foundations have been supporting these efforts through governance assistance programs.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Politics, United Nations, Non State Actors, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Asia
336. State-Owned Enterprises: Post-Conflict Political Economy Considerations
- Author:
- Zoë Cooprider and James Wasserstrom
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Participants at a recent USIP working group meeting on infrastructure development in conflict environments discussed the viability of revitalizing State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in Iraq. The meeting, held on February 1, 2007, focused specifically on Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Business Transformation (BTA) Paul Brinkley's effort to revitalize a selection of the nearly 200 SOEs that once produced consumer and durable goods, but which have been shut down since the beginning of the stabilization and reconstruction (S) effort in 2003. Brinkley is attempting to rescue what is salvageable through this controversial SOE revitalization project. In January 2007, after eight months of research and investigation, Brinkley announced that ten factories had been selected to initiate his SOE revitalization project and would be open within two to three months.
- Topic:
- Communism, Economics, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq
337. Constituent Assembly Elections and Security in Nepal
- Author:
- Karon Cochran-Budhathoki
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- This USIPeace Briefing highlights the findings regarding the security situation in Nepal in the run up to constituent assembly elections scheduled for November 22, 2007. Since February 2007 the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) has held individual meetings and group dialogue sessions on strengthening security and the rule of law in Nepal. These events have taken place in Washington, D.C., Kathmandu, Banke, Siraha, Kailali, Jhapa, Chitwan and Rupandehi Districts. During the sessions and meetings, including with members of the security sector, challenges and solutions to strengthening security and the rule of law were identified and discussed. While election security for the upcoming Constituent Assembly Election was not the primary subject of the discussions, various participants offered a number of recommendations and raised several concerns. Additionally, general security issues, many of which are related to election security, were discussed and can be included in a broader long-term security strategy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Asia, and Nepal
338. Sudan's 2009 Elections: Critical Issues and Timelines
- Author:
- Kelly Campbell
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Sudan's elections, scheduled to take place by July 2009, are a major milestone of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Domestic and international institutions are already planning for the elections, although many legal and logistical issues must be resolved before they take place. The U.S. Institute of Peace convened a meeting of the Sudan Peace Forum on July 13, 2007 to discuss the major tasks remaining in the organization of elections. The following USIPeace Briefing summarizes the status of electoral preparations and identifies critical conditions to ensure their timely organization.
- Topic:
- Political Economy and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and Middle East
339. New Political Contestation in the European Union
- Author:
- Catharina Sørensen and Ian Manners
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The recent and widespread sense of crisis in the European Union (EU), with competing demands for a more social Europe, limiting further enlargement, greater protection of the environment, and less immigration, for example, suggest that new lines of political contestation are challenging conventional ways of thinking about EU politics. The EU Internal Dynamics (EU ID) unit at the Danish Institute for International Studies is launching a project, subject to external research funding, to analyse the extent and ways in which new political issues such as climate change, immigration, security and enlargement, are leading to new lines of political contestation in the EU. The objective is to understand if and why the two conventional lines of contestation over more or less integration and left or right politics in the EU need to accommodate emerging lines of political contestation over a more cosmopolitan versus a more communitarian EU. The project is intended to assess in a systematic manner the relevance of three existing models of the relationship between 'integrationist' (more/less EU), 'horizontal' (left/right politics), and 'new politics' (cosmopolitan/communitarian) in the 21st century European Union.
- Topic:
- Development, Environment, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
340. Turkey's Bid for the New Constitution
- Author:
- Zühtü Arslan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to analyse the basic parameters of the new draft constitution in Turkey. Having outlined the radical amendments to the current Constitution in terms of both fundamental rights and state organs, the paper takes up the procedural and substantial criticisms directed against the draft Constitution. It also contains a number of policy recommendations for taking necessary measures to ensure the broadest possible participation of the Turkish people in the constitution making process. The paper concludes that adoption of the proposed constitution will remove the physcological obstacle to democratisation of the Turkish political regime by disproving the deeply embedded belief that civilians in Turkey cannot make a new constitution under truly democratic circumstances.
- Topic:
- Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
341. A Collapsing Façade – The Russian Duma Election in perspective
- Author:
- Sinikukka Saari
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Duma election and its results reinforce the prevailing undemocratic trends in Russia. The changes in electoral laws, the election campaign and its biased coverage in the Russian media, the Russian authorities' hostile attitude towards international election observation and the so-called Putin's Plan leave very little hope of democratic pluralism developing in Russia anytime soon. Russia's political system has been built gradually over the years. The system aims at controlling the competition for power and securing the political elite's interests. The system is characterised by non-transparent and manipulated political processes, misleading doublespeak on democratic norms, and the misuse of soft and hard administrative resources. Putin's overwhelming popularity does not compensate for the lack of democratic accountability. Likewise, his possible premiership would not strengthen parliamentarism in Russia because the decision is driven by instrumentalism towards political institutions. Instead, it would create a dangerous precedent for an ad hoc separation of power. Western actors should be more aware that the stability that Putin is often praised for bringing about is not build on solid ground, and they should change their policies accordingly. Promoting democracy – and thus longterm stability – in Russia is in western actors' interests.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
342. Shimon Peres Addresses The Washington Institute's Soref Symposium
- Author:
- David Makovsky and Shimon Peres
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Can Israel live with an Iranian nuclear bomb? If the Iranians continue to do three things simultaneously -- namely, develop nuclear weapons, be a center of terror, and be fanatical in their ambition to run the entire Middle East -- eventually the three will mix and nuclear bombs may fall into the irresponsible hands of terrorists. Then it will be a problem for the rest of the world. The world cannot live with terrorists obtaining nuclear capacity, and sooner or later the world will take action. However, I do not believe that Israel has to be a volunteer or pioneer in that endeavor.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
343. The Future of Palestinian Politics
- Author:
- Mohammad Yaghi, Wafa' Abdel Rahman, and Owen Kirby
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Democratic development in the Palestinian Authority (PA) is at the top of the Bush administration's priorities. While the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections of January 2006 were democratic, democratic elections by themselves do not constitute a democratic system. The current situation in the West Bank and Gaza cannot be called democratic by international norms. Respect for the rule of law and human rights and observation of individual rights and freedoms do not currently prevail in the PA.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
344. Turkey's 'Smart' Islamist Challenge
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay and Yuksel Sezgin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 20, thousands of secular Turks demonstrated in the Black Sea port city of Samsun against the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has an Islamist pedigree. It was the most recent display of protest in a power struggle between the AKP and its opponents over determining a replacement for outgoing president Ahmet Necdet Sezer. In addition to the protestors and Sezer, the courts and the Turkish military have weighed in against the AKP. Far from backing down, as Turkey's Islamists would have done in the past, the AKP has stepped up the pressure by introducing a constitutional amendment package that calls for direct presidential elections to replace the current system of voting in parliament. President Sezer could decide the fate of this package, but the political crisis will continue.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
345. Olmert After Winograd: A Battle for Survival
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The just-released Winograd Report, an investigation of Israeli decisionmaking in the 2006 summer war with Hizballah, has put Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in a battle for survival. Today, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni publicly called for Olmert's dismissal. Will the prime minister's tenure last beyond this growing crisis?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
346. Cheney in the Middle East: Defining Key Issues and Mutual Interests
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Vice President Dick Cheney departed today on a trip to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. A bland statement issued from his office on May 3 said he was asked to travel by President Bush and would be having "discussions with the leaders of these countries on key issues of mutual interest." No details were offered of the subjects of these discussions, but vice presidents do not travel halfway around the world unless there is important business to conduct.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
347. Contributions of the Turkish Armed Forces to Middle East Peace Operations
- Author:
- Selahattin Iban
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The general view held by Middle Eastern nations is that political sensitivities make it impossible for regional or neighboring countries to perform peacekeeping in the area. However, the example set by the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) in the past twelve years points to the fallacy of this view.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
348. PolicyWatch #1310: Lebanon's Presidential Crisis
- Author:
- Robert Rabil
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the end of the Lebanese presidential term neared and then passed on November 23, domestic and international forces have ratcheted up their involvement in electing the country's new president. But the political focus of the presidential elections has shifted from democratic and constitutional ideals to concerns about preventing civil strife -- a potential reality if no consensus on a candidate is reached between the two major Lebanese camps, the pro-Western March 14 alliance and the Hizballah-led opposition.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
349. PolicyWatch #1305: The PKK Redux: Implications of a Growing Threat
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 5, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and deputy chief of military staff Gen. Ergin Saygun visited President Bush in Washington to discuss the growing threat posed by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The composition of the Turkish delegation was symbolically important and demonstrates a new political stability based on the working relationship between the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Turkish military. Yet the newfound weight of the PKK issue may prove problematic for the United States -- and, in the long term, for Turkey as well.
- Topic:
- Government, Islam, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
350. PolicyWatch #1301: Pakistan and the War on Terror
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 3, Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency, putting at risk, despite claims to the contrary, the upcoming January elections. Musharraf justified his move by citing an increase in "the activities of extremists and incidents of terrorist attacks." The action was taken despite recent pleas from U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, as well as Admiral William Fallon, head of U.S. Central Command, who visited Musharraf on November 2. Instead of political stability in Pakistan, U.S. policymakers are now confronted with a more difficult battle against al-Qaeda in neighboring Afghanistan, a perhaps less secure Pakistani nuclear weapons arsenal, and a postponed democratic revival of the world's second most populous Muslim state.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Asia
351. PolicyWatch #1299: Presidential Elections in Lebanon: Consensus or Conflagration?
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On October 31, Saad Hariri, leader of the "March 14" majority bloc in the Lebanese parliament, met with opposition leader Michel Aoun, head of the Hizballah-allied Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), the largest Maronite Christian party in Lebanon. Discussions focused on the September 25-November 25 presidential elections, which will decide whether Lebanon's next chief executive will align with the pro-Western, reform-minded March 14 coalition or follow the path of current president Emile Lahoud and align with Syria. Despite increasing pressures on the March 14 forces -- including an apparent Syrian-orchestrated assassination campaign -- a breakthrough agreement between the majority and the opposition remains unlikely. Meanwhile, Hizballah has warned the March 14 bloc that if it does not compromise on the choice of president, the opposition will adopt a "more direct" approach.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
352. PolicyWatch #1298: Democracy in Slow Motion: Oman Goes to the Polls
- Author:
- J. Scott Carpenter and Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Tomorrow, around 400,000 Omani men and women are expected to vote in elections for eighty-five seats on the nation\'s Majlis al-Shura, or Consultative Council. Among the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf region, Oman -- a key U.S. ally and exporter of oil and gas, strategically positioned opposite Iran -- is often considered to be the most politically progressive, perhaps even evolving slowly toward a constitutional monarchy. But the country remains dominated by its ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said, and for now, the council is limited to advice on public services and infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, Politics, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Oman
353. PolicyWatch #1293: The PKK and the Armenian Genocide Resolution: U.S.-Turkish Relations at a Critical Juncture
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On October 21, Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) operatives carried out an attack from northern Iraq into Turkey, killing twelve Turkish soldiers. This incident followed the killing of more than thirty people in recent weeks, including an incident in which the PKK pulled a dozen civilians off a public bus and shot them. The Turkish public has responded to the attacks by calling for incursion into northern Iraq to eliminate PKK camps there.
- Topic:
- Government, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Armenia
354. PolicyWatch #1285: Hamas's Authoritarian Regime in Gaza
- Author:
- Mohammad Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- During the first eighteen months following its January 2006 electoral victories, Hamas took an incremental approach toward official integration into the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Since its takeover of Gaza in June 2007, however, Hamas has changed tactics and imposed an independent, authoritarian regime. After an initial period of calm, there are increasing signs of public discontent over the faction's nascent rule. Yet, Hamas has a near monopoly on the means of force -- its disciplined and well-organized security forces have managed to control Fatah-led disturbances. The group will continue to consolidate its rule in Gaza unless PA officials in the West Bank initiate a clear strategy aimed at the long-term restoration of authority there. Without such an effort, Hamas will further undermine the legitimacy of President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayad, limiting their mandate to negotiate on behalf of all Palestinians at the planned international peace conference this fall.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
355. PolicyWatch #1282: The Moroccan Parliamentary Election: More Gains for Islamists?
- Author:
- Emma Hayward
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On September 7, Morocco will hold its first parliamentary election since 2002. That election ended with the Justice and Development Party (PJD), an Islamist faction, just eight seats short of becoming the largest party in parliament. Despite several years of significant political and social reform -- or perhaps because of those reforms -- the PJD has a chance of emerging even stronger after this week's vote.
- Topic:
- Government, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Morocco
356. PolicyWatch #1281: Ahmadinezhad's Power Slipping in Iran
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Two intriguing developments have unfolded in Iran over the past week: the election of a new Assembly of Experts Speaker on September 4 and the appointment of a new Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander in chief on September 1. Both suggest the growing power of former president Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, a powerful politician who is openly critical of President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad and his policies.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
357. PolicyWatch #1271: Cabinet, President, Referendum: Turkey's Complex Political Calendar
- Author:
- H. Akin Unver
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 9, the Turkish parliament elected Koksal Toptan, a deputy from the Justice and Development Party (AKP) as its speaker. The AKP, which won 46 percent of the vote in July 22 parliamentary elections, controls 341 seats in the 550-member Turkish parliament. Thus has Turkey begun a very busy political season, with serious issues put off since the April constitutional crisis over the AKP's attempt to appoint its foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, as president.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
358. PolicyWatch #1269: The Islamist Boycott of Jordanian Municipal Elections: A Victory of Public Relations or Politics?
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On July 31, in a contest widely seen as a tune-up for November's parliamentary balloting, Jordanians went to the polls for municipal elections. Amman had hoped these would showcase Jordan's relatively advanced style of representative democracy in the Middle East. Instead, in a surprise development, the Islamic Action Front (IAF) -- the political party of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood -- withdrew hours into the voting, claiming that government-sponsored fraud had "overstepped the bounds." Subsequently, independent and progovernment candidates swept the elections.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Jordan
359. PolicyWatch #1266: Jordanian Islamists and Municipal Elections: Confirmation of a Problematic Trend?
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Jordanians go to the polls tomorrow to elect nearly 1,000 local representatives and 92 mayors. On their own, these elections are of minimal interest to Washington: municipalities have small budgets, limited responsibilities, and scant independence from the central government. But the voting comes just a month after the Hamas takeover of Gaza, during a spike in the violence in Iraq, and a week after a landslide victory for the Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the Turkish national elections. Adding to the significance of the Jordanian ballot is the fact that, after boycotting the 2003 contest, the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood's political party, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), will participate in this year's elections. A potential IAF victory highlights growing concern that Islamists are on a political roll throughout the Middle East, and that Jordan may be vulnerable.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Gaza, and Jordan
360. PolicyWatch #1262: How Supreme Is Iran's Supreme Leader?
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Reports that Ayatollah Ali Meshkini has either died or is on the brink of death shed light on the nature of power in Iran. Meshkini is speaker of the Assembly of Experts -- a body that, despite its traditionally minor role in Iranian politics, is constitutionally empowered to not only elect a new Supreme Leader if the post becomes vacant, but also to dismiss a sitting leader. Current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei cannot be pleased that this body may now be headed by deputy speaker Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, a former president known to be a wily comeback artist. Although Khamenei has taken full advantage of the constitution to make the Supreme Leader the ultimate arbiter of Iranian politics, that could change depending on his health and Rafsanjani's scheming.
- Topic:
- Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
361. PolicyWatch #1257: Upcoming Turkish Elections: Issues and Winners
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On June 19, the Turkish Supreme Elections Board, an independent body that monitors the elections process, finalized the candidate lists for the July 22 early parliamentary polls. The outcome at the polls should be easier to estimate now that the electorate can judge the parties as well as their candidates. Will the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) win? How will the other major parties fare? And what issues will dominate, among them the Constitutional Court's decision yesterday to overturn President Ahmet Sezer's veto of the AKP's proposal for direct presidential elections?
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
362. Bolivia's Reforms: The Danger of New Conflicts
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Bolivia's first indigenous president, Evo Morales, will complete a year in office on 22 January amid rising civil unrest. His government and its opponents are locked in confrontation over institutional reforms that would rewrite the constitution, end an inequitable land tenure system and return economic power to the state. Extremists are coming to the fore in both camps in a crisis that differs from previous ones because the stakes involve a proposal for a very different national model that the traditional elites see as a fundamental threat to their survival. Unless menacing rhetoric ends and dialogue, mediation and compromise begin immediately, widespread violence may result in 2007.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- South America and Bolivia
363. China and Taiwan in the South Pacific: diplomatic chess versus Pacific political rugby
- Author:
- Graeme Dobell
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The competition between China and Taiwan for diplomatic recognition is destabilising island states in the South Pacific, making Pacific politics more corrupt and violent. Solomon Islands offers the clearest evidence of what happens to an island state that becomes a battleground in this contest. Australia is in the front line in the South Pacific. Australia is budgeting billions of dollars for aid and governance in the South Pacific over the decade. Australia's aims in the region will bring it into sharper conflict with the interests being pursued by China and Taiwan.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
364. American Trade Politics in 2007: Building Bipartisan Compromise
- Author:
- I.M. Destler
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- As Democrats took over the United States Congress in January 2007, many trade advocates trembled. Over the past decade, votes on trade liberalization had broken increasingly along partisan lines. Trade promotion authority (TPA)—indispensable for negotiating new trade agreements—passed by just one House vote in December 2001, with just 21 out of 210 Democrats in favor. In July 2006 the Central American Free Trade Agreement—Dominican Republic (CAFTA-DR) won by just two votes, with a minuscule 15 of 202 Democrats voting “aye.” By one accounting, voters in November 2006 had replaced 16 trade-friendly House Republicans (and five similar Senate Republicans) with tradeskeptical Democrats. No seats in either house moved in the free trade direction (Evenett and Meier 2006).
- Topic:
- Development, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- America
365. The Politics of Iran's Assembly of Experts after Meshkini
- Author:
- Mahjoob Zweiri and Ramzy Mardini
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
- Abstract:
- The recent death of Ayatollah Ali Meshkini effectively created a vacuum that was bound to lead to an ideological and political clash among Iran’s power players. Meshkini was the first and only chairman of the Assembly of Experts, objectively Iran’s most powerful institution. He has kept its inherent powers at bay to the desires of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But now that has changed and Meshkini’s passing, with the recent victory of Hashemi Rafsanjani as his successor, has come at a time when the Islamic Republic is witnessing a socio-political redefinition in its conservative establishment. The ambitions of Iran’s old and new elitists have led to a political confrontation in filling Meshkini’s vacuity, a struggle that may have changed Iranian discourse, as we know it. Though this event is little known and hardly emphasized in media circles in the West, the politics leading up to Rafsanjani’s victory over the ultra-conservatives should be of great interest to those in discussion with Iran over its nuclear program and involvement in Iraq, particularly the United States. This article analyzes the Assembly’s role and significance within the Iranian institutional realm as well as depicts the candidates and politics that shaped this historic dilemma.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Nuclear Power, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
366. Haiti's New Government Faces Historic Dilemmas
- Author:
- Robert Perito
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Two years after Jean-Bertrand Aristide's ouster by armed revolt, Haiti appears ready to turn a page in its turbulent political history. Earlier this month, the Haitian people successfully completed parliamentary elections with minimal violence or fanfare, two months after choosing their new president, René Préval. Once in office, Haiti's new leadership will face grave political challenges in governing a country that has been traumatized by chronic violence and instability.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Haiti
367. Syria and Political Change II
- Author:
- Scott Lasensky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- This is the second in a series of USIPeace Briefings written by Scott Lasensky and Mona Yacoubian of USIP's Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention. It is based on discussions at a recent seminar. The views expressed do not reflect those of USIP, which does not take policy positions. One year after the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and facing mounting international pressure, the Syrian regime is consolidating its hold on power and adopting a more defiant stance, both in the region and toward the West. On December 12, Lebanese journalist Gibran Tueni—who had been staunchly opposed to Syrian involvement in Lebanon—was killed by a car bomb in Beirut. The attack occurred amidst continued Syrian intimidation of key witnesses as well as an orchestrated Syrian campaign to discredit the UN's Hariri investigation. Then, in a late December interview on al-Arabiya, former Syrian Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam accused the Syrian regime of directly threatening Hariri just before his death. Khaddam is now openly calling for regime change, even reaching out to exiled leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood. In February 2006, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice criticized the Syrian government for encouraging violence and inflaming popular anger over the Danish cartoon controversy.
- Topic:
- Development, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
368. Lebanon's Confessionalism: Problems and Prospects
- Author:
- Imad K. Harb
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Over the past year and a half, Lebanon has witnessed tremendous political upheaval. In September 2004, Parliament extended the term of the country's president, Emile Lahoud, for three years after heavy-handed Syrian interference. Attempts were made on the lives of several public figures; among those killed was former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. A popular uprising forced Syria to withdraw the troops it had deployed in Lebanon since 1976. New parliamentary elections were held in May and June, 2005, and resulted in a new majority coalition of reform-minded, albeit sectarian, leaders who promised an overhaul of Lebanese politics.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
369. Multiculturalism in Denmark and Sweden
- Author:
- Ulf Hedetoft
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Danish controversies over multiculturalism and integration can be enlightened by a fresh look at the ostensibly polarised differences on these questions between Denmark and its closest neighbour Sweden. Danish integration policies appear to be assimilationist in effect, if not in intent, while Sweden has openly pursued an official multiculturalism towards its ethnic minorities for over thirty years. Differences rooted in history and political tradition are real, but there appears to be some evidence of convergence today. Multiculturalism in Sweden looks increasingly unviable as a compromise, and vulnerable to the current political atmosphere, while in Denmark local policy implementation and pragmatic international adaptation to 'diversity management' belie the hostile tone of national politics. Both countries are wrestling with the adaptation of long standing traditions and institutional forms – particularly those of the welfare state – in a difficult international environment. The convulsions over multiculturalism are typical of the adaptive politics and symbolic difficulties of small states in the face of wider global transformations.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Demographics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Denmark, and Sweden
370. After Enlargement: Europe's New Migration System
- Author:
- Adrian Favell
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Policy makers underestimate the importance of underlying demographics and labour market dynamics on future East-West migration in Europe. Flows have generally been demand driven, and have therefore been drawn by European nations with the most open and informal labour markets – such as Britain, Ireland, Italy and Spain –rather than more highly regulated welfare states such as Denmark. They are also more likely to be circular and temporary than one way immigration. I discuss the desirability of the apparently inevitable trend in Europe towards a more US style international labour market that strongly parallels the migration system between the US and Mexico. The underlying trend in Europe is towards the emergence of a more regionalised system, in which West European societies come to rely on East European movers to fill secondary labour market needs in the service economy, rather than more racially or ethnically distinct non-European immigrants.
- Topic:
- Development, Migration, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
371. The Danish ugly duckling and the Mohammed cartoons
- Author:
- Ulla Holm
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Abroad, Denmark is for the time being considered an ugly duckling in international politics because of the publication of the cartoons on Mohammed. This perception of Denmark has shocked the political establishment and the population, because Denmark has had until now a very good reputation in international politics. This brief argues that the construction of Danish national identity as a homogeneous, harmonious ethnic entity makes it difficult for Danish governments to conduct foreign policy that takes into consideration other cultures. The Danish vision of being morally superior to other countries because of its welfare state and egalitarian politics enhances this attitude to other countries. The question is therefore how Denmark may become a swan again.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe
372. The Defense Monitor: Military Spending: CDI Analysts Take a Close Look at Defense Budgets
- Author:
- Rhea Myerscough
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- How do Congress and the Bush administration prioritize the issues monitored by the Center for Defense Information's Challenging Conventional Threats project? This examination of the fiscal year (FY) 2006 and 2007 budget appropriations and requests for U.S. government programs involving small arms and light weapons (hereafter referred to as “small arms”) and landmines attempts to determine just that.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
373. Falling In Line on Israel
- Author:
- Stephen Zunes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The election of a Democratic majority in the House and Senate is unlikely to result in any serious challenge to the Bush administration's support for Israeli attacks against the civilian populations of its Arab neighbors and the Israeli government's ongoing violations of international humanitarian law.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Humanitarian Aid, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
374. Bush's Dysfunctional Cuba Policy
- Author:
- Wayne S. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The Bush administration's Cuba policy has reached a dead end, with no hope of success. Its objective is nothing less than to bring down the Castro regime. Or, as then-Assistant Secretary of State Roger Noriega put it on October 2, 2003: "The President is determined to see the end of the Castro regime and the dismantling of the apparatus that has kept him in office for so long." President George W. Bush then appointed a Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba with the goals of bringing about "an expeditious end of the dictatorship," and developing a plan to achieve that goal. In May 2004, the Commission came out with a near-500- page plan whose basic premise was that the Castro regime was near collapse and that another shove or two would bring it down--a few more Radio Marti broadcasts, a few more travel restrictions, another economic sanction or two and it would all be over. The plan also read like a blueprint for an American occupation that would make the trains run on time, show the Cubans how to run their school systems and grow their crops--so much so that it offended many Cubans who read it, even those who didn't necessarily agree with the Castro government. To correct that, the new--and shorter--report issued by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and Transition Coordinator Caleb McCarry, on July 10 this year stressed that its purpose was simply to assist Cubans on the island. Solutions must come from them, it insisted, adding that the U.S. stood ready and willing to support those initiatives. But having said that, the report went on with page after page of recommended actions--always provided that Cubans on the island wished to initiate them.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Cuba and Central America
375. South Africa's Political Turmoil
- Author:
- Martin Plaut
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- South Africa has entered the most difficult political period since the end of apartheid in 1994. At the heart of the crisis is the question of the future direction of the country.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa
376. Oil Trip
- Author:
- Emira Woods
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- It is almost impossible to imagine, as we sit in a well-lit, fully functioning gas station on Main Street, USA, that a community blessed with oil riches under its soil could look as impoverished as Yenagoa in the Nigerian state of Bayelsa.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Energy Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
377. Urbanization and poverty reduction - Subsidies to a research agenda and beyond
- Author:
- Jorge Wilheim
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- I shall try to describe the importance of establishing links between short term and long-term projects intended to reduce poverty, illustrating these issues with the recent experiences of São Paulo, Brazil. I shall start with a short commentary on mobile societies, the global economy and the meaning of sustainable development. As our main and final aim is the elimination of poverty and not just its reduction, I shall then outline the links between long-term objectives and urgent short-term strategies. Finally, I will reflect upon poverty reduction efforts undertaken in São Paulo by Mayor Marta Suplicy during her 2001-2004 term when I served as Planning Secretary. Based on this experience, I shall propose some topics for the research agenda on poverty and urbanization.
- Topic:
- Health, Human Welfare, Politics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Brazil
378. Immigration and Insecurity: Post-9/11 Fear in the United States
- Author:
- John Tirman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The attacks of September 11, 2001, transformed the landscape of global security, none more than borders and immigration. The topography of citizenship, belonging, and suspicion instantly changed for Arab and Muslim communities in the United States. They drew the sharp attention of U.S. law enforcement and intelligence services, and that continues. But the public's focus has swung south to scrutinize the U.S.-Mexican border as a source of insecurity. For the most part, the alarms about immigrants as threats are exaggerated. And the policy choices driven by these concerns—much larger border security measures in particular—are costly in a globalized economy and unnecessary for security in any case.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Arab Countries, North America, and Mexico
379. Budgets to Make America Safer
- Author:
- Cindy Williams
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Since September 2001, federal budgets for national security have climbed more than 50 percent in real terms. Unfortunately, much of the added money reflects “business as usual” rather than programs aimed at making the nation safer from today's threats. Compared with past decades, national security spending makes up a relatively small share of the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, with the federal debt growing rapidly and as large numbers of baby boomers approach retirement age, many observers expect future federal budgets to be tight. Thus it is critically important to ensure that national security funds go to projects that make the nation more secure. This article examines broad changes in national security budgets since September 2001. It first reviews the three categories of federal spending for national security. It then examines how budgets in those categories have changed since September 2001. It ends with a look at alternatives that seem more relevant in an era of international mass-casualty terrorism.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- America and North America
380. The War on Terror and the Cold War: They're Not the Same
- Author:
- John Tirman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the autumn of 2001, following the shocking attacks of September 11th, President Bush and his advisers have repeatedly likened the war against terrorism to the confrontation with Nazi Germany in the Second World War and the long struggle with Soviet communism in the Cold War. But the current anti-terrorist campaign and the related war in Iraq are significantly different from those earlier contests. Where resemblances occur, they are not comforting to our political values. And the comparative lessons that the U.S. Government is proffering are not the ones that are relevant to dealing with terrorism.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
381. Human Bombs: Rethinking Religion and Terror
- Author:
- Nichole Argo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Suicide terror has become a daily news staple. Who are these human bombs, and why are they willing to die in order to kill? Many observers turn to Islam for an explanation. They cite the pre-ponderance of Muslim bombers today, indoctrination by extremist institutions, and the language used in jihadi statements.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
382. A Double Standard on Nuclear Weapons?
- Author:
- Hugh Gusterson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- There has long been a widespread perception among U.S. defense intellectuals, politicians and pundits that, while we can live with the nuclear weapons of the five official nuclear nations for the indefinite future, the proliferation of nuclear weapons to nuclear-threshold states in the Third World, especially the Islamic world, would be enormously dangerous. This orthodoxy is so much a part of our collective common sense that, like all common sense, it can usually be stated as simple fact without fear of contradiction. It is widely found in the media and in learned journals, and it is shared by liberals as well as conservatives.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
383. We Can Live With a Nuclear Iran
- Author:
- Barry R. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The intense concern about Iran's nuclear energy program reflects the judgment that, should it turn to the production of weapons, an Iran with nuclear arms would gravely endanger the United States and the world. An Iranian nuclear arsenal, policymakers fear, could touch off a regional arms race while emboldening Tehran to undertake aggressive, even reckless, actions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iran
384. A Better Strategy Against Narcoterrorism
- Author:
- Vanda Felbab-Brown
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- It is widely recognized that access by belligerent groups to the gains from drug production and trafficking contributes to the intensity and prolongation of military conflict. Also, that such groups—terrorists, insurgents, or warlords—grow stronger when they successfully exploit the drug trade. The United States' response—its antinarcotics policy—emphasizes crop eradication. This strategy is too simplistic and, ultimately, ineffective.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
385. From 'There' to 'Here': Refugee Resettlement in Metropolitan America
- Author:
- Audrey Singer and Jill H. Wilson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Most immigrants arrive in the United States having planned their journey. Often they know in advance where they will initially live and work when they arrive, and many can rely on family, friends, and compatriots to cushion their transition. In short, most immigrants have made choices about their future.
- Topic:
- Migration, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States
386. Pragmatic Reform of Global Governance: Creating an L20 Summit Forum
- Author:
- Johannes F. Linn and Colin I. Bradford Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The global challenges confronting political leaders today—whether the stalemate of global trade negotiations, the threat of Avian flu, the struggle over Iran going nuclear, or the fight against global poverty—cannot be solved by yesterday's institutions. They demand new approaches to global governance that are more inclusive, more representative, and thus more effective. The G8 summit, in particular, is a forum of the eight industrialized countries that were the dominant powers of the mid-twentieth century. By excluding the emerging powers of the twenty-first century, it has become increasingly ineffective, unrepresentative and illegitimate. U.S. global interests are best served by increasing the inclusiveness and effectiveness of the global steering process rather than sticking with the obsolete, overly formalized and unrepresentative G8.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States
387. Preparing for Future "Katrinas"
- Author:
- Robert E. Litan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- While policymakers and leaders continue to debate the rebuilding of Gulf areas devastated by Hurricane Katrina, a much greater loss looms on the horizon. Katrina exposed more than problems with poverty, emergency management, and infrastructure. The storm also illustrated the inability of private insurance markets to handle large-scale losses. “Mega-catastrophes” are catastrophic events, like Katrina, whose costs are so large and unpredictable that private insurers either are unwilling to insure against them, or charge premiums so high that significant numbers of customers do not want or cannot afford the insurance.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Environment, and Politics
388. India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace?
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- When the third round of the normalisation talks concludes in July 2006, India and Pakistan will be no closer than when they began the process in February 2004 to resolving differences, including over Kashmir. What they call their "composite dialogue" has helped reduce tensions and prevent a return to the climate of 2001-2002, when they were on the verge of all-out war, but progress has been limited to peripheral issues. India's prime minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, and Pakistan's president, General Pervez Musharraf, have reiterated commitments to sustain the dialogue. It is unrealistic, however, to expect radical change. International, particularly U.S. support for the process will likely dissuade either side from pulling out but asymmetry of interests and goals militates against a major breakthrough. The need is to concentrate on maintaining a cold peace until a long process can produce an atmosphere in which the support of elected governments in both states might realistically bring a Kashmir solution.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Middle East, India, and Kashmir
389. New Saudi Rules on Succession: Will They Fix the Problem?
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On October 20, 2006, eighty-three-year-old King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia announced changes to the kingdom's “Basic Law”—effectively its constitution—that appear to formalize procedures for the selection of future kings. However, it is difficult to know how much the current system of succession will actually change. For the foreseeable future, it is most likely that the world's largest oil exporter and the center of the Islamic world will still be led by an octogenarian, with the probability that his successor will be of similar age, and perhaps even infirm.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia
390. Turkey Gets Ready to Elect President under New Chief of Staff: Implications for the United States
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On September 1, 2006, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit became Turkey's new chief of staff. Compared with his predecessor, Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, who came into office about the same time as the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, General Buyukanit is a more vocal personality on many issues, including secularism. As Turkey prepares for the April 2007 election of a new president by parliament, General Buyukanit's term marks a new, crucial era in military-civilian relations in Turkey. What are the dynamics of this new era, and what implications does it have for U.S. policy?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Turkey
391. Ending the Palestinian Political Stalemate: Abbas's Electoral Option
- Author:
- Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Since the breakdown in talks over the formation of a unity government in mid-September, the Palestinian political environment has become more dangerous and dysfunctional. Paralyzed by ongoing international economic and political isolation, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has essentially ceased to function as tens of thousands of public sector employees continue to strike in protest against unpaid salaries. Factional violence assumed a new level of intensity on October 1 when the Hamas interior minister, Sayed Siam, ordered Hamas's security force to break up demonstrations by the mainstream Fatah-dominated security services, who were protesting after not receiving salary payments. The resulting gun battles left twelve people dead and dozens injured. Fatah loyalists responded to the incident in Gaza by targeting Hamas interests in the West Bank, burning offices, kidnapping officials, and threatening to assassinate Hamas leaders.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Economics, Environment, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Palestine and Gaza
392. Yemen's President to Be Reelected As Terrorist Plots Revealed
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On September 20, amid reports of al-Qaeda plots against local American targets, the people of the strategically important but impoverished Arabian Peninsula state of Yemen go to the polls to elect a president. The president will not be new -- the incumbent Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power for twenty-eight years, is expected to be reelected. Apart from last-minute doubts about the poll caused by the security crisis, the main question is how sweeping his victory will be. The last time elections were held, in 1999, President Saleh polled 96 percent, including the vote of his only opponent, a member of his own political party who said he considered Saleh more worthy. This time the field includes four other candidates. Saleh's main rival is Faysal bin Shamlan, a former oil minister who is backed by an alliance of opposition parties and whom Saleh has linked to an arrested "major terrorist."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- America and Yemen
393. The Damascus-Hizballah Axis: Bashar al-Asad's Vision of a New Middle East
- Author:
- Seth Wikas
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 15, Syrian president Bashar al-Asad gave a significant policy speech to the Syrian Journalists Union in which he expressed his support for Hizballah. More importantly, the address sought to redefine Syria's position in the Arab world. Building on Washington's talk of the birth of a new Middle East, Asad described his own vision for a new Middle East, one with an empowered Arab resistance, a weakened Israel, and a renewed regional unity against Western interests.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
394. Israel's War against Hizballah and Its Battle against Hamas
- Author:
- Shimon Peres
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 1, 2006, the Honorable Shimon Peres addressed the Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum to discuss Israel's political and military strategy in its war against Hizballah. Shimon Peres is the deputy prime minister of Israel and a member of Knesset from the Kadima Party. A former prime minister, defense minister, and foreign minister, he has played a central role in the political life of Israel for more than half a century and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Mr. Peres's remarks.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Israel
395. Ahmadinezhad's Popularity One Year On
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Westerners believe Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad to be popular in Iran, in no small part because of his strong support for Iran's nuclear program. However, there is much evidence to the contrary. There is limited information available with which to form a judgment about the popularity of any politician or political program in Iran. The government forbids any independent opinion polling on matters as ordinary as the raging problem of drug addiction, let alone sensitive issues like negotiations with the United States or the nuclear program. The main sources of information for Western media are the statements and photographs that come from Iranian state media, or other Western journalists who go to Iran but cannot work freely in the face of government controls. The Western newsmedia has taken the massive turnouts at demonstrations in support of Ahmadinezhad and his nuclear policy as evidence of popular support for both. But the size of such demonstrations has no meaning beyond illustrating the efficiency of the regime's propaganda machine. Unfortunately, Western media take this propaganda for the truth. The Iranian regime has nearly succeeded in fashioning its own image and imposing it on its critics. Official results show Ahmadinezhad was elected by only 35 percent of eligible voters—in an election that was not free and fair, according to many top Iranian officials. Most of Ahmadinezhad's support came from rural regions and the poorer classes of Iranian society; these voters hoped that Ahmadinezhad's election would reduce corruption and raise their standard of living. Today there are clear signs of dissatisfaction within these constituencies. The evidence comes from independent journalists, blogs, and independent Iranian news websites which have reported increasing discontent with Ahmadinezhad's domestic policies.
- Topic:
- Government, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iran
396. Iran's Shadow Government in Lebanon
- Author:
- Mehdi Khalaji
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Having come into existence by virtue of Iranian military and financial patronage, Hizballah has used massive Iranian support to transform itself from a purely military group into an armed political party that has had an enduring impact on Lebanese political life and served as an outpost of Islamic fundamentalism in the region.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Lebanon
397. Jordan Looks Inward: The Hashemite Kingdom in the Wake of Zarqawi and the Hamas-Israel Clash
- Author:
- Samer Abu Libdeh
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Even while Israelis and Palestinians are locked in deepening conflict over the kidnapping of a young Israeli soldier and the future of the Hamas government, political life on the East Bank of the Jordan River is increasingly focused on internal Jordanian concerns.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan
398. Kuwait's Elections Exacerbate Differences between Ruler and Parliament
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The June 29 parliamentary elections in Kuwait achieved international media coverage because women were allowed to stand for office and vote for the first time in the sheikhdom. Less well reported were the local political divisions that had brought about elections a year earlier than expected. The results of the balloting—in which, incidentally, none of the women candidates won office—worsened the divisions between the Kuwaiti government and the National Assembly and could lead to greater public disagreement about the character of the country's alliance with the United States.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Kuwait
399. Tracking Hamas's Leadership: Insights into the Organization's Structure and Evolution
- Author:
- Christopher Hamilton
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Taken together, the kidnapping on Sunday of an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldier and the signing on Tuesday of an agreement among Palestinian factions to create a unity government for the Palestinian Authority (PA) suggest that significant seismic forces may be developing within Hamas that may have a decisive impact both on the organization's solidarity and on the future course of Israeli-Palestinian relations. While the unity agreement itself has little significance beyond internal Palestinian politics—it is a nonstarter for the Israelis and represents a major retreat from previous Palestinian positions—its importance lies in the fact that it highlights the possible emergence of a fissure within the Hamas organization between its internal leaders, headed by Palestinian prime minister Ismail Haniyeh, who experience the brunt both of popular concerns and Israeli reprisals, and its external leaders, chief among them Damascus-based Khaled Mashal, who are free of these constraints and therefore able to insist on more maximalist positions. However, in signing this agreement—apparently without full consultation with, or the approval of, the Damascus contingent—the Hamas leaders in the territories have signaled both their independence and their intention to embark on a more pragmatic path than that preferred by Hamas's more ideological external elements. Indeed, the timing and nature of the attack seems to have been specifically intended to disrupt the effort to agree on a unity government with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, and thereby, the possible emergence of a more moderate Hamas strategy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
400. Rising Tensions Between Turkey's AKP and the Courts
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 17, a gunman chanting Islamist slogans attacked the Turkish Council of State (the Danistay, or high court for administrative affairs) in Ankara. The gunman killed one judge and wounded four others who were sitting in the Council's second chamber, which has recently upheld Turkey's ban on “turbans” in schools. In accordance with the European and Turkish notion of secularism (laïcité in French) as freedom from religious symbols in the public sphere, Turkey bans public officials and school students wearing turbans—a specific style of women's headcover that emerged in the mid 1980s and that the courts consider an Islamist political symbol. (Turbans are distinct from traditional headscarves, which are not banned.) Photographs of the judges had earlier been published in Islamist newspapers with headlines targeting them.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East