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302. The Crawford Summit: High Noon for U.S.-Saudi Relations?
- Author:
- Simon Henderson and Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- After declining at least two earlier invitations since January 2001, Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is due to meet President George W. Bush for the first time this Thursday. The de facto leader of America's leading oil supplier (his elder half-brother, King Fahd, is ailing) had previously snubbed Washington's efforts, ostensibly angry over the president's reluctance to become involved in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking. In addition to the current crisis, the lunchtime talks at President Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas, are expected to cover a complete range of issues including the involvement of Saudis in the events of September 11 and extension of the war against terrorism to Saddam Husayn.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
303. Special Policy Forum Report: The Powell Mission and the Bush Speech: Making Peace Possible?
- Author:
- Dennis Ross
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Secretary of State Colin Powell and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon exchanged warm words regarding the U.S.-Israel relationship at a press conference on April 12, but underneath that they presented two distinct approaches to stopping the current violence in the region. Sharon emphasized that Israel is conducting a war on terror, stressing that completing the ongoing military operation is of the utmost importance. Powell was sympathetic to Israel's need to defend itself, but he emphasized finding a political answer to the conflict, one tied to a timetable for ending Israeli military operations.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
304. Special Policy Forum Report: Post-Saddam Iraq: What Follows a U.S.-Led Intervention?
- Author:
- Amatzia Baram
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Among the many advantages of an Iraq without Saddam Husayn, the first clear one is the removal of an unacceptable threat to the Iraqi people. Saddam has shown that he is prepared to put the nation and the region as a whole at risk. At the very least, an Iraq without his regime would be much more friendly to America, and — given Iraqi oil reserves — could even lessen American dependence on Saudi oil.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
305. Special Policy Forum Report: Turgut Ozal Memorial Lecture
- Author:
- Paul Wolfowitz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- "It is the great good fortune of the United States to have in Turkey a friend and ally that has stood with us through war and peace, going back to the days of the Korean War. That is where American troops got their first look at Turkish courage — a fighting spirit and self-reliance that is also legendary in the annals of history. . . .
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and Arabia
306. Post-Lockerbie Judgement, What Next for U.S.-Libya Relations?
- Author:
- Ray Takeyh
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the Bush administration seeks to define its policy on the Middle East, Libya has emerged in the high drama of the U.S. war against terrorism. A Scottish appeals court yesterday upheld the conviction of former Libyan intelligence agent Abdel Baset al-Megrahi for the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103. The appeals court ruled unanimously that none of the grounds of appeal are well founded. The latest verdict not only ended the Lockerbie legal saga but potentially ushered in a new phase in U.S.-Libyan relations.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Middle East, and Libya
307. Next Steps in the War on Terrorism
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Six months after the September 2001 attacks, U.S. focus remains fixed on taking the war to the terrorists. There are a variety of roles along a spectrum of cooperation to be played by countries throughout the world, from military operations to freezing terrorists' assets and sharing intelligence.
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, Religion, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
308. Tackling the Financing of Terrorism in Saudi Arabia
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- While publicly stressing Saudi Arabia's cooperation and shared concern regarding terrorist financing, U.S. treasury secretary Paul O'Neill held private consultations this past week in Riyadh with Saudi officials and businessmen regarding specific Saudi organizations and individuals suspected of financing terrorist activities. Promising to find clear-cut cases, O'Neill reassured his hosts that the United States is both fine-tuning the procedure of targeting charitable institutions and fast-tracking the processing of individuals and institutions already placed on terrorism lists and subject to financial blocking orders.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
309. Human Rights in the Arab World: The State Department's 2001 Country Reports
- Author:
- Amy W. Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On March 6, Lorne W. Craner, assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights, and labor, will testify before Congress on the State Department's just-released "2001 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices" covering 195 countries. How the reports characterize human rights and influence U.S. policy in the Arab world is especially important this year. Traditionally, human rights have not figured prominently in U.S. policy toward the region. However, some U.S. officials have recently alluded to the promotion of "freedom" in the Middle East as part of the war against terrorism. Most notable were President George W. Bush's State of the Union remarks that "America will always stand firm for the nonnegotiable demands of human dignity: the rule of law, limits on the power of the state, respect for women, private property, free speech, equal justice, and religious tolerance."
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and Arabia
310. U.S.-Turkish Economic Partnership Commission: Time to Take a Look at QIZs
- Author:
- Helena Kane Finn
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The U.S.-Turkish military strategic relationship has been a strong one historically, based on the loyalty of Turkey — a staunch NATO ally — over the past half century. As a result of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit's visit to Washington in January, business contacts between the United States and Turkey have intensified, adding a new and very significant dimension to the relationship. Perhaps the most concrete result of the meeting between President George W. Bush and the Turkish prime minister is the State Department's creation of the Economic Partnership Commission (EPC), scheduled to hold its first meeting in Ankara on February 26-27. State Department undersecretary for economic affairs Alan Larson will lead the U.S. delegation.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
311. Iran as Part of the Axis of Evil: U.S. Policy Concerns (Part II)
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 31, following President George Bush's State of the Union condemnation of the "axis of evil," National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice explained, "Iran's direct support of regional and global terrorism, and its aggressive efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, belie any good intentions it displayed in the days after the world's worst terrorist attacks in history." How accurate is this characterization?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia
312. After the Ecevit Visit: Can Turks Pull Together to Complete the Necessary Reforms?
- Author:
- Helena Kane Finn
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The visit of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit to the United States last week was a political and public relations success for his administration, but a few questions remain: Can the Turks continue to implement the economic reforms required by the International Monetary Fund, or will there be slippage when the road gets rough? Can Turkey pull together to complete the legislation necessary to meet the European Union (EU) requirements? Balancing regional and international considerations, will Turkey be able to meet the challenge clearly posed by the deteriorating situation in Iraq? Will Turkey sustain the wise course it has taken in recent months on the Cyprus issue? And, perhaps most important for the long-term health of Turkish society, will it be able to seize the opportunity offered by the resolution of conflict in the Southeast and find ways to successfully integrate all of its citizens?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries
313. Assessing the $959 Million in Accelerated Economic Aid to Egypt
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson and Amy W. Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In a brief January 3 statement, the White House announced that Egypt is receiving $959 million in accelerated economic aid, the bulk of which was evidently disbursed in the closing days of 2001. While an important sign of continued U.S. support for the Hosni Mubarak government, this sudden and massive windfall has the potential for weakening U.S. leverage in convincing Egypt to pursue additional (and much needed) economic reforms. Additionally, it is certain to be viewed in Cairo as a signal that the United States is fully satisfied with Egypt's post-September 11 contribution to the war against terrorism.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
314. An International Force in the West Bank and Gaza Strip: The Security Aspects
- Author:
- Natan Sachs and Nitsan Alon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On Tuesday, former president Bill Clinton joined others in advocating a U.S.-led international force in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Several frameworks for such an intervention have been proposed, ranging from monitoring missions to full-fledged international trusteeship over the territories. Underlying these ideas is a lack of confidence in both sides, the Israelis and the Palestinians, along with a perception that the latter are unable or unwilling to stop terror. Although the appeal of external intervention may be strong, an analysis of the relevant security repercussions suggests that such intervention would not only be hazardous, but would also likely do more harm than good in the fight against terrorism.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries
315. New Capabilities: Transforming NATO Forces
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, Robert Hunter, and George Joulwan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Of the three important topics on the agenda for the Prague summit – New Capabilities, New Members and New Relationships – the issue of “ new capabilities ” is particularly critical. How well this issue is handled will determine in large measure how members and others, particularly potential adversaries, think about NATO in the future.
- Topic:
- Security and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
316. New Frontiers for U.S. - Japan Security Relations
- Author:
- Christopher J. Makins, L. Gordon Flake, and Akio Watanabe
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A strong U.S.-Japan security alliance remains in dispensable to the interests of both partners in East Asia and beyond. Through strategic cooperation, both formal and informal, the United States and Japan can achieve international objectives that would otherwise be out of reach. Bilateral cooperation also contributes to the kind of stable, predictable relations on which the increasingly interdependent economies of the East Asian region depend.
- Topic:
- Security and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Israel, and East Asia
317. Managing Proliferation Issues with Iran
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson and David H. Saltiel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Any government in Tehran will be inclined to seek weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missile delivery options given the realities of its strategic environment. These weapons might help Iran to deter potential external threats, to achieve equality with other major regional powers armed with WMD, and to attain self-reliance in national security, given the isolating experience of arms embargoes. A more pluralist leadership in the future, however, may examine broader choices and trade-offs, and perhaps be less likely to cross key thresholds in WMD acquisition. In any event, Iran's WMD behavior is likely to be determined by both external factors, mainly the availability of crucial components, and internal factors, including calculations of costs, risks, and benefits. Among the benefits, psychological factors, such as prestige, will play an important role. Other important factors that might well shape Iran's WMD behavior include developments in Iraq, relations with the United States and other Gulf states, Israeli-Palestinian relations and the future price of oil.
- Topic:
- Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
318. The Defense Monitor: Victory At An Unknown Cost
- Author:
- Stephen H. Baker
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- Throughout the spring, summer and fall of this year thousands of U.S. military planners have worked on the various contingencies and strategies concerning a possible invasion of Iraq.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
319. The Defense Monitor: Exploring the Axis of Evil — Introduction
- Author:
- Dan Smith
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- IN HIS JAN. 29, 2002 State of the Union Address to Congress and the American public, U.S. President George W. Bush described a tripartite “axis of evil” threatening the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
320. Japan's Uneasy Citizens and the U.S.-Japan Alliance
- Author:
- Sheila A. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. and Japanese policy-makers have successfully reaffirmed the U.S.-Japan security alliance. Yet, even as they have done so, a series of events has revealed a deeper ambivalence in Japan about the terms of the alliance. These events began with the 1995 rape of a school girl in Okinawa by U.S. servicemen, focusing attention on the social costs to residents of hosting U.S. forces. In 1999 came North Korea's launch of a missile over Japan, raising doubts among many Japanese about their alliance partner's ability to protect them. Most recently, the outcome of the 2001 sinking of the Ehime Maru training ship by a U.S. nuclear sub seemed to many to sacrifice Japanese citizens' interests to those of the U.S. military. Taken independently, these developments may seem temporary set-backs to policymakers, but together they suggest that there is increasing impatience among Japan's citizens with the way the alliance is managed. This disconnect between the public and policymakers could, if untended, have serious implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance.
- Topic:
- Security, Cold War, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, Asia, and North Korea
321. Rough Waters in the South China Sea: Navigation Issues and Confidence-Building Measures
- Author:
- Ji Guoxing
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In the wake of a collision between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter off the coast of Hainan in April 2001, verbal skirmishing between the United States and China revealed sharply different conceptions of jurisdictional and navigational principles. These differences persist and will likely be the cause of future conflicts; they have already caused strife among countries ringing the South China Sea. Central to these conflicts are the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) that extend 200 nm into the sea from coastal nations' baselines. Created by the UN Law of the Sea Convention, these zones attempt to accommodate coastal states' interest in controlling offshore resources and maritime powers' interests in maintaining freedom of navigation. But ambiguities in the Convention's language combined with coastal states' proliferating EEZ claims have created a tinderbox. The situation will remain volatile as long as the focus remains on jurisdictional disputes. But confidence-building efforts aimed more narrowly on practical navigation issues and managing “incidents at sea” offer a starting point for first bilateral and then multilateral agreements. In the wake of a collision between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter off the coast of Hainan in April 2001, verbal skirmishing between the United States and China revealed sharply different conceptions of jurisdictional and navigational principles. These differences persist and will likely be the cause of future conflicts; they have already caused strife among countries ringing the South China Sea. Central to these conflicts are the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) that extend 200 nm into the sea from coastal nations' baselines. Created by the UN Law of the Sea Convention, these zones attempt to accommodate coastal states' interest in controlling offshore resources and maritime powers' interests in maintaining freedom of navigation. But ambiguities in the Convention's language combined with coastal states' proliferating EEZ claims have created a tinderbox. The situation will remain volatile as long as the focus remains on jurisdictional disputes. But confidence-building efforts aimed more narrowly on practical navigation issues and managing “incidents at sea” offer a starting point for first bilateral and then multilateral agreements.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and China
322. U.S. Military Bases in Latin America and the Caribbean
- Author:
- John Lindsay-Poland
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The United States maintains a complex web of military facilities and functions in Latin America and the Caribbean, what the U.S. Southern Command (known as SouthCom) calls its "theater architecture." U.S. military facilities represent tangible commitments to an ineffective supply-side drug war and to underlying policy priorities, including ensuring access to strategic resources, especially oil. Much of this web is being woven through Plan Colombia, a massive, primarily military program to eradicate coca plants and to combat armed groups (mostly leftist guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia). In the last five years, new U.S. bases and military access agreements have proliferated in Latin America, constituting a decentralization of the U.S. military presence in the region. This decentralization is Washington's way of maintaining a broad military foothold while accommodating regional leaders' reluctance to host large U.S. military bases or complexes.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States
323. Iraq: 10 Years After Gulf War
- Author:
- Stephen Zunes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- Ten years after the Gulf War, U.S. policy toward Iraq continues to suffer from an overreliance on military solutions, an abuse of the United Nations and international law, and a disregard for the human suffering resulting from sanctions. Furthermore, Washington's actions have failed to dislodge Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein from power.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
324. The EU takes on Terrorism
- Author:
- Marta Martinelli, Catriona Gourlay, Lorraine Mullally, Sibylle Bauer, and Natalie Pauwels
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Security Information Service
- Abstract:
- The terrorist attacks on the United States on 11 September have added a sense of urgency to the elaboration of a European Union policy on terrorism, something that had already been in the pipeline for a number of months under the auspices of the Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) Council and the Commission's Directorate- General for JHA. While the immediate policy response of the EU mainly reflected these third pillar initiatives, it is likely that the 11 September attacks will lead to a re-evaluation across the EU policy spectrum. This article outlines some of the areas that could be considered prime candidates for action by the EU as part of its overall counter-terrorism strategy.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
325. Europe Moves Forward on its Own Missile Proliferation Agenda
- Author:
- Simon Taylor, Sibylle Bauer, Jens Mosegaard, Sharon Riggle, Thomas Sköld, and Philippe Manigart
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Security Information Service
- Abstract:
- The missile defence debate has gained serious momentum in Europe since US President George W. Bush took office in January 2001. Reactions in Europe to US missile defence plans have been negative, ranging from scepticism to outrage, with a slight softening of positions in recent weeks .The EU has had no common position on the issue but has now reconfirmed its commitment to multilateral solutions to the threat of missile proliferation with a declaration which aims to reinforce preventive regimes.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
326. Journalistic License: Professional Standards in the Print Media's Coverage Media's Coverage of Israel
- Author:
- Jeff Helmreich
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- On May 15, 2001, the Associated Press circulated an article covering Arafat's Al-Naqba speech, marking the day Palestinians recall the "catastrophe" of the creation of the State of Israel. The article boasted direct quotations of the Palestinian leader's statements. They had been spoken in Cairo, broadcast on Palestinian radio stations, and blared out from loudspeakers into the streets of Nablus and Ramallah and all across Gaza. But something happened to the speech on the way to AP's wire report. By the time it reached the newspapers, entire sentences and clauses had been excluded; moderating words had been added; fiery attacks — like a slur about the United States — had been cleaned out; statements had been condensed, enhanced, or otherwise altered. In short, AP's purported "excerpts" of Arafat's remarks were at best edited, at worst fabricated. Moreover, they served to distort (and significantly soften) the message that passed through Arafat's lips.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Gaza
327. Jerusalem in International Diplomacy: The 2000 Camp David Summit, the Clinton Plan, and Their Aftermath
- Author:
- Dore Gold
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Since its independence in 1948, and indeed even in prior times, Israel's rights to sovereignty in Jerusalem have been firmly grounded in history and international law. The aftermath of the 1967 Six-Day War only reinforced the strength of Israel's claims. Seven years after the implementation of the 1993 Oslo Agreements, Prime Minister Ehud Barak became the first Israeli prime minister to consider re-dividing Jerusalem in response to an American proposal at the July 2000 Camp David Summit. The December 2000 Clinton Plan attempted to codify Barak's possible concessions on Jerusalem. Yet they proved to be insufficient for PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat, leading to a breakdown in the peace process and an outburst of Palestinian violence with regional implications. At least the failed Clinton Plan did not bind future Israeli governments or U.S. administrations, leaving open the possibility of new diplomatic alternatives. Only by avoiding premature negotiation over an unbridgeable issue such as Jerusalem can the U.S., Israel, and the Palestinians stabilize the volatile situation that has emerged and restore hope that a political process can be resumed in the future.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, International Law, Religion, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and Israel
328. The Israel Swing Factor: How the American Jewish Vote Influences U.S. Elections
- Author:
- Jeffrey S. Helmreich
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- There are two clashing myths on the political power of American Jewry. One claims that the community is too small to affect national elections; Jews make up less than 3 percent of the U.S. population. A contrasting view holds that U.S. Jews play a disproportionately large role in national politics thanks to their campaign donations and media influence.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Middle East
329. Israel under Sharon: The Tunnel at the End of the Light
- Author:
- Alan Dowty
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
- Abstract:
- The election of controversial Likud leader Ariel Sharon as Prime Minister of Israel resulted more from the disillusionment of the left than the triumph of the right. Sharon's efforts to end the second intifada through stronger military responses are a recipe for escalation. The international community should support the recommendations of the Mitchell Committee, which proposes that the Palestinians renounce the use of violence as a tool in exchange for an Israeli reversal of punitive measures taken since the intifada began, accompanied by a freeze on further settlement growth.
- Topic:
- Security and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- United States and Israel
330. Prospects 2002 — Euro-Area Economy
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece focuses on the economic prospects for the euro-area in 2002. The euro-area economy has shown increasing signs of cyclical weakness since the beginning of 2001. These signs, compounded by the effects of accelerated decline in the United States since the September 11 terrorist attacks, indicate continuing stagnation into 2002 and growing difficulties for states to maintain their fiscal positions. SGP requirements are reducing the fiscal room for manoeuvre of euro-area states to respond to the current economic downturn. The absence of concerted intervention represents a considerable risk, particularly if global demand fails to pick up in 2002.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
331. Middle East — Bin Laden Prognosis
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece examines the prospects for the al-Qaida group and Osama bin Laden's wider terrorist network following the fall of the Taliban and the loss of many of its facilities in Afghanistan. Key elements of bin Laden's network have been seriously damaged. Some operational cells are likely to survive but most are likely to remain inactive for the foreseeable future in order to avoid detection. Al-Qaida is likely to remain active but less effective than hitherto. As long as the reasons for bin Laden's appeal to certain Islamist constituencies remains, new cells and entirely new groups will be formed within migrant communities and among those engaged in regional conflicts around the world.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
332. United STates — Anti-Terrorism Foreign Aid
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This piece focuses on The changing nature of US foreign assistance priorities in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks. There will be broad support for a rapid expansion of foreign aid designed to counter the terrorism threat and to support key coalition partners. Whether that support is sustainable in the future depends, at least in part, on the programme's success in enhancing US 'homeland security'. If the anti-terrorism foreign aid programme is shown to serve US interests, help erode poverty, promote democracy and stabilise the political positions of coalition partners, public opinion may in future support more robust programmes. However, if a large portion of assistance is mismanaged or abused, and/or accountability and impact are marginal, enthusiasm for foreign aid is likely to be undermined still further.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
333. International — Unusual Securities Trades
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met on Wednesday, September 26, in Vienna. The uncertainties associated with the international oil market have been greatly compounded by the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Middle East
334. United States — Terrorist Aftermath
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The World Trade Center's twin towers in New York City and the Pentagon in Washington were on Tuesday subjected to devastating terrorist attacks. The atrocities will prompt a wide-ranging review of US security and intelligence systems which, on Tuesday's evidence, failed spectacularly.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
335. United States — Medical Marijuana
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The US Supreme Court heard oral argument last month on whether 'medical necessity' should override the federal government's blanket prohibition on the use of marijuana. If the Court were to accept this argument, it would provide a powerful boost to the medical marijuana movement and hamper the federal government's ability to pursue its current drugs policy. A ruling in favour of the federal government, however, would constrain the ability of states to formulate independent drug policies. The Supreme Court is likely to sidestep the substantive issue of whether 'medical necessity' allows the distribution of marijuana to seriously ill patients. Its inclination will be to decide the case on a narrow procedural ground which would leave the federal government to decide if it wishes to pursue criminal prosecutions.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States
336. United States — 'Plan Colombia'
- Author:
- Caspar Fithin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Colombia, and South America
337. NATO Enlargement: Moving Forward
- Author:
- Philip H Gordon and James B Steinberg
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The question of whether and how to expand the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) membership is one of the many important U.S. foreign policy issues that must be seen in a new light following the September 11 terrorist attacks. Prior to those attacks, there were strong indications coming from Washington that the Bush administration was planning to support a wide enlargement, notwithstanding strong opposition from Russia and from longstanding domestic opponents of the process. Many of those opponents will now argue even more forcefully that NATO enlargement should be put off or stopped altogether, particularly because Russian cooperation in the war on terrorism is now so crucial.
- Topic:
- Security and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Washington
338. Moving Forward in South Asia
- Author:
- Stephen P Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The key to an effective American policy in South Asia is the deepening of Washington's engagement with India and Pakistan. India is an emerging major power and Pakistan, despite its internal economic and political problems, is also a significant state. Besides reengaging these states in strategic terms, Washington should overhaul current regional sanctions policy, seeking in return Indian and Pakistani compliance with missile and nuclear proliferation regimes, and should assist them in reducing the risk of accidental nuclear detonation and missile launches.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, America, South Asia, Washington, and India
339. The Caucasus and Central Asia
- Author:
- Fiona Hill
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The Caspian Basin and the surrounding states of the Caucasus and Central Asia have crept from obscurity onto the U.S. foreign policy agenda. While the individual countries of the two regions may not be of vital interest to the United States, the countries that border them are. Four have nuclear weapons, one is an important NATO ally, and two are states that have posed direct challenges to U.S. security by their support for terrorist movements.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Central Asia
340. The Anti-Terrorism Coalition: Don't Pay an Excessive Price
- Author:
- Charles V. Peña
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- To prosecute the war on terrorism, President Bush has assembled a diverse coalition of countries for political, diplomatic, and military support. Some of those countries are long-standing friends and allies of the United States. Others have new or changing relationships with the United States. Although there may be a price for their support, America should not pay an excessive price—one that could be detrimental to longer-term U.S. national security interests. And though it may be necessary to provide a certain amount of immediate aid (directly or indirectly) as a quid pro quo for the support of other nations in our war on terrorism, the United States needs to avoid longer-term entanglements, openended commitments, and the potential for an extreme anti-American backlash.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia
341. Going Too Far: Bush's Pledge to Defend Taiwan
- Author:
- Ted Galen Carpenter
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- When he pledged to do whatever was necessary—even use U.S. military forces—to help Taiwan defend itself, President George W. Bush seemingly replaced Washington's long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” with a policy of strategic clarity. Although the president and his advisers subsequently retreated from his initial rhetorical stance, both China and Taiwan are likely to believe that Bush's original statement accurately reflects U.S. policy. That creates an extremely dangerous situation for the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Washington, Taiwan, and Asia
342. The Rogue State Doctrine and National Missile Defense
- Author:
- Ivan Eland and Daniel Lee
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Clinton administration underestimated the technological ability of several of the “rogue” states to develop long-range missiles and politicized its intelligence estimate. However, missile threats to the United States from any one of those states also depend on the intentions of that state and political developments that might affect those intentions.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
343. Inspections in Iraq: A Test For Saddam, Not A Good Solution for WMD
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Like that of its predecessor, the Bush administration's policy toward Iraq appears to focus on the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the hands of Saddam Husayn's regime. Some suggest that U.S. policy should emphasize the resumption of inspections, suspended since 1998. However, there are strong reasons to doubt that inspections would reduce the threat of Iraqi WMD.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
344. Promoting Religious Freedom in the Arab World, Post-September 11
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- To win the war against terrorism, the U.S. government must pursue with equal vigor both the short-term imperative to root out terrorist groups, including their international support networks, and the longer-term objective of advancing a positive vision for the Arab world, one that offers an alternative to the destructive ideology of the terrorists. Both efforts are essential; focusing on the former at the expense of the latter will almost surely prove self-defeating.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries
345. Special Policy Forum Report: Europe and the Campaign Against Terror
- Author:
- Josef Joffe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 6, 2001, Josef Joffe addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum about the many faces of European politics and policy in the context of September 11. Dr. Joffe, a special visiting fellow of The Washington Institute, is publisher-editor of the German weekly Die Zeit, and a contributing editor of Time (International). A frequent commentator on U.S., British, and German radio and television, his essays and reviews have appeared in such publications as Foreign Affairs, the National Interest, New York Review of Books, Times Literary Supplement, Commentary, New York Times Magazine, New Republic, and the Weekly Standard. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries
346. U.S. Military Operations and the Question of Ramadan
- Author:
- Avi Jorisch
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Ramadan, the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, will begin on November 16. Some in the United States and abroad have suggested that a moratorium in military operations would be appropriate. Others see no reason to stop. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has stated that "history is replete with instances where Muslims have fought Muslims and Muslims have fought non-Muslims throughout all of the various holy days, including Ramadan." What, then, is the Muslim sentiment regarding fighting during Ramadan? Is there historical precedent or religious requirement for the cessation of hostilities?
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries
347. Shaykh Dr. Yousef Al-Qaradawi: Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
- Author:
- Reuven Paz
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Shaykh Yousef al-Qaradawi, head of the Sunni studies department at Qatar University and a well-known Islamic scholar, was the first in the Arab Sunni world to Islamically legitimate the suicide operations of Hamas (1995). But he was also among the first Islamic scholars to condemn the September 11 attack on the United States. In mid-October, he joined four other scholars in sanctioning the participation of American Muslim military personnel in the attack on Afghanistan, as long as they were not involved in fighting and only in administrative and logistics activities. This report was viewed by American Muslims as a ruling, but the statement has not appeared on his official website (www.qaradawi.net) alongside his other rulings, articles, and interviews. Do his post-September 11 statements indicate a change in view?
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries
348. Bright Star: Almost Business As Usual
- Author:
- Richard Williams
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Bright Star 01/02, the largest multinational exercise in the world, began in Egypt the same day U.S. strikes against Afghanistan commenced. With world and regional attention focused on the war against terrorism, relatively little media notice has been taken of Bright Star. Despite its massive size, the exercise was "expected to be a low-key affair" by the Middle East Newsline. A review of the Egyptian press since October 4 reveals no mention of it, and the Department of Defense (DoD) released only a single, brief announcement on October 3. The U.S. Central Command's (CENTCOM) Bright Star web page is bare.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt
349. Yemen and the Fight Against Terror
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- October 12 marks the first anniversary of the terrorist attack on the American warship USS Cole, an attack that killed seventeen sailors while the ship was refueling in Aden harbor, Yemen. A year later, although United States and many Yemeni officials are certain that Osama bin Laden was behind the incident, the file remains open. Reflecting the continuing evolution of policy in the wake of September 11, the United States now describes Yemen as a "partner" in the fight against terror, whereas the State Department's 2000 "Patterns of Global Terrorism" report stated that the Yemeni government "did little to discourage the terrorist presence in Yemen."
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Government, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries
350. U.S. - Israel Tension in the Aftermath of September 11
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the world has focused on the U.S. effort against Osama bin Laden in the aftermath of September 11, friction has been building between the United States and Israel. The growing feeling in Israel has been that U.S. coalition-building with the Arabs against terrorism has involved tradeoffs which come at Israel's expense and thus compromises Israeli security concerns. The tension peaked at the end of last week when Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon made intemperate remarks, implying a potential comparison between President George W. Bush and Neville Chamberlains Munich capitulation to the Nazis. The White House immediately termed such comments "unacceptable" — Sharon quickly apologized, calling it a misunderstanding.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries
351. Gaining Arab Support Against Terrorism: The Role of the Organization of the Islamic Conference
- Author:
- Ray Takeyh
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the United States pursues its military operations, the Organization of the Islamic Conference's (OIC) foreign ministers are scheduled to meet in the Qatari capital of Doha on Wednesday. Among the important issues that are likely to be mooted are the antiterrorism coalition and the scope of its activities; the future of Afghanistan; and a working definition of terrorism. The OIC has before it an important opportunity to ally the Muslim world with the prevailing international consensus against using religion as a rationale for mass violence.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries
352. The War Against Terror: The Caution of the Conservative Arab States of the Persian Gulf
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- At a meeting over the weekend in the Saudi port city of Jeddah, foreign ministers of the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf pledged "total cooperation" for international efforts to bring those responsible for the terror attacks in New York and Washington to justice. But the nuances in attitudes of the group — the oil states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman — suggest that the United States faces huge difficulties in achieving, publicly at least, anything more than partial cooperation.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Kuwait, and Arab Countries
353. Iran: Part of the Problem or Part of the Solution?
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- British foreign secretary Jack Straw arrives in Tehran today to "build alliances with every country that we can." In fact, Iran is the acid test of U.S. resolve to fulfill the goal set by President George Bush in his speech to Congress, namely, "From this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime." While Iran could be a useful ally vis-a-vis Afghanistan, there is no sign that Iran has any intention of stopping its support for terrorism. The objective of U.S. policy should be finding a way to take advantage of Iran's anti-Taliban sentiment while still pressing ahead with efforts to terminate Iran's own support for international terrorism.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries
354. The War Against Terror: Saudi Arabia's Crucial Role
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The visit to Washington this week by Saudi foreign minister Prince Saud Al Faisal is an early test of Saudi Arabia's ability and willingness to work with U.S. authorities in meeting the threat of terrorism led by Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden. Although the United States is the kingdom's strongest ally and has historically helped make it the world's largest oil exporter, the recent past does not augur well.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
355. Quandries and Coalitions: The U.S. Response to September 11
- Author:
- Ray Takeyh
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Given the scope of last week's terrorist attacks and the shadowy nature of the perpetrators, the White House has pledged that U.S. retaliation will be qualitatively different from the past — targeting states as well as organizations, crafting a wide international coalition, employing an array of military, political, and cultural means, and persisting over a long period of time. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld acknowledged that the U.S. response would be "political, economic, diplomatic, and military," while the president unequivocally declared that the objective of the United States "is to rid the world of evil." Deciding how to achieve these goals, however, raises several quandaries.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries
356. The Ibrahim Case and U.S. Egypt Policy: Toward a More Robust Approach
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In a glimmer of hope for Egyptian-American democracy advocate Saad ed-Din Ibrahim and five of his colleagues — sentenced to prison in May — Egypt's Court of Cassation last week set an October 17 hearing for a petition to suspend their sentences while the verdict is under appeal. This news, along with the arrival in Cairo of a new U.S. ambassador, should give the United States the opportunity to pursue the Ibrahim case more vigorously, despite the tension this may add to U.S.-Egyptian relations at a time of regional conflict.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Cairo
357. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part II)
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran could have a number of direct and indirect effects on the region: First, a nuclear breakout by either will cause the United States to be much more careful in its dealings with that state, particularly when it comes to considering military action. America's military freedom-of-action will be greatly constrained. Second, an Iraqi breakout would almost certainly cause Iran to further accelerate its own nuclear efforts and might spur Tehran to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which it increasingly sees as a liability. Third, the emergence of a nuclear Iraq and/or Iran could cause the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to seek an independent deterrent capability — including chemical weapons. (The large petrochemical industries of the Gulf could provide many of the precursor chemicals needed for such an effort.) Saudi Arabia might even seek to buy nuclear weapons from Pakistan.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, Iraq, America, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
358. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part I)
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As U.S. policymakers review options for national missile defense and ways to reshape the military to meet future threats, nuclear proliferation — particularly in the Middle East — looms large as one of the most critical future challenges facing the United States. In the coming years, it is conceivable, if not likely, that the United States will have to respond to a nuclear breakout by Iraq and/or Iran. Such a development could have a dramatic impact on the strategic environment of the Middle East by altering the regional balance of power and encouraging further proliferation in the region and beyond. A nuclear breakout by either of these countries would also undermine international proliferation norms, put U.S. forces in the region at risk, pose a direct threat to U.S. friends and allies, and greatly constrain America's military freedom of action in the region. The likelihood of such a development — or at least its potential impact — will, however, be influenced by steps the United States takes now to deal with such an eventuality. And Washington is more likely to successfully manage the consequences of a nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran if its response is not improvised, but based on prior planning.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
359. Durban and the Middle East: Challenges for U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Michael Colson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- At the end of August, the United Nations is set to convene a "World Conference Against Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance" (WCAR) in Durban, South Africa. But with less than one month to go, preparations for the conference are in shambles. Draft texts under consideration are replete with language equating Zionism with racism. Efforts to address anti-Semitism and the Holocaust have been perverted beyond recognition. Governments and nongovernmental organizations are demanding apologies and recognition of the right to reparations and compensation for slavery, the slave trade, colonialism, and other historical wrongs. These problems have prompted the Bush administration to warn that it may boycott the entire event.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, South Africa, and Arab Countries
360. Special Policy Forum Report -- Northern Iraq, Sanctions, and U.S. Iraq Policy
- Author:
- Michael Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On June 27, 2001, Michael Rubin, a Washington Institute visiting scholar and Carnegie Council fellow, addressed the Washington Institute's Policy Forum. Dr. Rubin has just returned from nine months in northern Iraq, where he taught in the region's three universities. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Iraq remains at the forefront of U.S. and international attention. Many contentious issues — such as sanctions, weapons of mass destruction, and the future political disposition of the country — remain unresolved. In analyzing the source of Iraq's problems, it is useful to compare those portions of Iraq under the control of Saddam Hussein to the three northern governorates (Dahuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniyyah), which are controlled by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and the Islamic Unity Movement of Kurdistan — especially as all parts of Iraq fall under the same set of UN sanctions. The population in the north is approximately 3.5 million, many of whom are Kurdish, Turkoman, or Assyrian, and almost 1 million of whom are displaced persons expelled from Saddam's portion of Iraq. By refusing to grant visas to many journalists, Saddam's government consistently seeks to deny press coverage to northern Iraq. Those who do visit Baghdad-controlled Iraq are restricted to guided tours with Iraqi government minders and are prevented from traveling into the Kurdish-controlled north. Foreigners visiting the north, however, are able to move around freely without prearrangement.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
361. June 7 Khatami's Re-Election and Iran's Pressing Problems
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Tomorrow, Mohammed Khatami is sure to be re-elected president of Iran. But that is not likely to make much difference to Iranians, as Khatami has no coherent program for any of Iran's three pressing problems: economic revitalization, political liberalization, and reduction of security threats. Even though Khatami has shown disinterest in improving relations with the United States, Washington should try once again, while not expecting much-if any-response.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
362. 'Re-Energizing' UN Sanctions on Iraq: Problems and Prospects
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This week, the United States and United Kingdom are circulating a draft resolution in the UN Security Council proposing a package of new measures intended to "re-energize" sanctions against Iraq. They hope to bring the resolution to a vote before the next six-month phase of the "oil for food" program begins on June 4. This revamped sanctions regime will lift restrictions on civilian trade, while retaining both international control over Iraq's oil income through the UN escrow account, and a ban on the import of arms and dual-use items critical to the production of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Arab Countries
363. The United States, Iraq, and Iran: Proliferating Risks, Dwindling Opportunities
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- American policymakers face a number of decision points concerning U.S. policy toward Iraq and Iran in the coming weeks. The UN Security Council has to act by June 4 to renew the oil-for-food program, providing the United States with an opportunity to secure approval for the "re-energized" sanctions regime that Secretary of State Colin Powell floated in March. Iran's policy direction will become clearer after its June 8 presidential elections, and that could influence the U.S. decision whether to renew the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act that expires August 5. Meanwhile, U.S. officials are reportedly considering whether to indict senior Iranians for the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, Iran, and Arab Countries
364. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey -- Today's Political and Economic Realities
- Author:
- Tansu Ciller
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 8, 2001, Tansu Ciller, former prime minister and the leader of Turkey's True Path Party, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. At the dawn of the new millennium, Turkey remains a significant actor in its region despite economic difficulties. Turkey, a strategic partner with the United States, is a source of steadiness that is vital for peace in its region. Turkey's long relations with Israel play a stabilizing role in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East
365. Special Policy Forum Report: Partners in Need: Russia and Iran's Strategic Relationship
- Author:
- Brenda Shaffer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In April, Brenda Shaffer, research director of Harvard University's Caspian Studies Program and visiting fellow at The Washington Institute in 2000, addressed The Washington Institute to mark the publication of her Policy Paper, Partners in Need: The Strategic Relationship of Russia and Iran. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. Russia and Iran see themselves as strategic partners, and therefore their relations are based on an overall security conception. It would be a misperception to assume that because Washington and Moscow share concerns about Islamist radicalism that Russia would necessarily decide to cooperate with the United States on Iran. It would also be a misperception to think that Russia wants to sell arms to Iran solely in order to make money and that the United States can induce Russia not to make these sales by offering a better economic deal.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
366. Do Iran's Presidential Elections Matter?
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Today's decision by Iranian president Mohammad Khatami to run for re-election was more important than the actual election on June 8, which he is sure to win. But neither matters nearly as much as the crucial question for Iran's future — namely, will hardliners let the formal government rule or will they continue their crackdown through the revolutionary institutions they control? The answer will be key for U.S. policy options towards Iran.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries
367. Special Policy Forum Report -- Managing U.S.-Turkish Relations
- Author:
- Mark Parris
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Turkey is important . . . The new administration, based on what it has said and done since January, understands this." "One reason [for Turkey's importance], of course, is its location and the issues that come with that geography-big issues; issues that have literally made or broken past administrations' foreign policies: Russia; the Caucasus and Central Asia; Iran; Iraq; post-Asad Syria; Israel and the Arab world; Cyprus and the Aegean; the Balkans; the European Security and Defense Initiative (ESDI); drugs, thugs, and terror. I would submit that no administration can achieve its objectives on any of these issues unless the Turks are on the same page.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, Syria, and Cyprus
368. At The Bottom Of The Bush-Mubarak Agenda? The Slow Pace Of Political Reform In Egypt
- Author:
- Amy W. Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Urgent regional matters — such as Iraq and the Arab–Israeli peace process — will dominate the agenda during Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's visit to Washington this week, while Egypt's transition to a free-market economy and U.S.– Egypt trade ties will also receive attention. Egyptian domestic politics, however, will register little, aside from U.S. frustrations over anti-Semitism in the Egyptian press and concern about the status of Egypt's Coptic Christians. Although the regime appears quite stable, having secured a "victory" in its 1990s conflict with violent extremist groups, the state of political reform in Egypt, America's most important Arab ally, merits a closer look. That is because Egypt's long-term economic reform — in which Washington has invested so much — can succeed only if accompanied by meaningful political liberalization.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt
369. Turkey And The Bush Administration: The Question Marks
- Author:
- Alan Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Turkey's economic crisis is naturally the leading issue in bilateral U.S.-Turkish relations, and it is almost certainly topping the agenda of today's meetings of Foreign Minister Ismail Cem with Vice President Richard Cheney and other senior officials. Of course, these meetings pose the difficult question of how much Washington should do, if anything, to bail out its strategically vital ally. But this is only one of several uncertainties characterizing U.S.-Turkish relations in the early days of the Bush administration. Because so much of Turkey's importance to the United States derives from its critical strategic location, bilateral relations are greatly affected by U.S. policies toward other states in Turkey's region. Of most concern to Turkey will be the evolution of Bush administration policy toward Iraq, Iran, and Russia, and also toward Europe's nascent bid to develop an autonomous security capacity.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East
370. Lebanon: Between Hong Kong And Hanoi
- Author:
- Yossi Baidatz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In recent weeks, a simmering debate between the two major power centers in domestic Lebanese politics has spilled into public view. This debate pits newly installed Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who represents those who want Lebanon to take advantage of Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon to focus on internal stability, economic reconstruction and securing foreign investment, against Hizballah leader Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, who — with the support of Syria and Iran — champions maintaining Lebanon's role on the front line of the ongoing revolutionary resistance against Israel. This tension was described in the Lebanese newspaper an-Nahar as the choice between "Hanoi" (Nasrallah) and "Hong Kong" (Hariri). As with most Middle East crises, the development of this delicate and flammable dispute carries both risks and opportunities for Lebanon and other players on the Middle East scene.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Hong Kong
371. Arab Gulf Politics And Powell's Visit
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Secretary of State Colin Powell and former President George Bush celebrate the tenth anniversary of the liberation of Kuwait, for many Gulf Arabs the occasion marks a decade since Saddam Husayn's tanks put the lie to the promises of security that local leaders had made to their people. After popular trust in these Gulf leaders was tarnished by their need to rely on U.S. and allied forces to expel the Iraqis (despite the billions of dollars of oil wealth these rulers had spent on high-tech weaponry over the years), Gulf monarchs started to concede to their peoples a greater say in political life.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Kuwait
372. The Gulf Cooperation Council Defense Pact: An Exercise In Ambiguity
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- January 17 marks the tenth anniversary of the start of Operation Desert Storm in the Middle East, when U.S.-led forces began the liberation of Kuwait. In that operation, the militaries of the Gulf monarchies played a minor role. At their meeting in Bahrain at the end of December, the leaders of these monarchies agreed to a joint defense agreement by which an attack on one would be considered an attack on all. While this agreement could enhance the defense capabilities of these states, they will still be unable to fend off attack by either of their large neighbors, Iraq or Iran. The monarchies will continue to rely on the United States as their ultimate security guarantor.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Kuwait
373. Special Soref Symposium Report: Israel's Search for Security and Peace
- Author:
- Limor Livnat
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- " . . . The political road that brought us to the crossroads we are now at was one replete with navigational errors, steering miscalculations, and poor vision, traveled by fatigue-driven guides driving under the influence of reckless idealism and senseless naïveté . . . On February 6 of this year, the people of Israel made it eminently clear that they know it, and have left the road that led from Oslo to chaos and bloodshed in their homes and on their streets. The best of Israel's political pundits could not have imagined that Ariel Sharon would ever be elected prime minister of Israel, let alone with a plurality unprecedented in democratic nations. But they did not understand the people of Israel, and probably still don't. It was the most potent statement imaginable in favor of a new road and a more promising future."
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries
374. Sharon's Victory: Implications For The Peace Process And U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Israeli people spoke in the most dramatic and convincing fashion. Viewed in the U.S. context, Ariel Sharon won a larger share of the vote — 62.5 percent — than any presidential candidate in history. Essentially, Israel voted to express one word: "enough!" — enough violence, enough concessions, enough perception of weakness. They were particularly voting against Barak, both personally and against the policies that characterized his government (dating not only to Camp David but as far back as the earliest days of his cabinet). Certainly, much of yesterday's vote was against Barak more than it was a vote for Sharon; just as Barak's 1999 landslide was less a vote for him than it was a vote against Bibi Netanyahu; just as Netanyahu's 1996 squeaker was less a vote for him than it was a vote against Shimon Peres. Now it's Sharon's turn.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Israel
375. Time Running Out On Clinton Proposals
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Meetings this week between Israeli and Palestinian security and political personnel notwithstanding, time has virtually run out for any Israeli–Palestinian peace deal. It is important to note that the issue is not just one of time, even though President Clinton leaves office next Saturday. Top Clinton Administration officials have made clear that the Palestinians have engaged in "delays" since the December 23 ideas were tabled. Seeking to avoid the international disapproval that mushroomed in the wake of last summer's failed Camp David summit, Yasir Arafat came to Washington with an apparent "yes, but" view of the proposals. However, this approach seems clearly to be little more than a public-relations tactic.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Migration, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
376. From Bilateralism To Internationalization: Security Implications Of The U.S. Bridging Proposals
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With President Clinton due to meet Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat today for a last-ditch diplomatic effort, attention is focused mainly on two aspects of the U.S. bridging proposals: the division of Jerusalem and the future status of Palestinian refugees. In contrast, little attention has so far been devoted to the security aspects of the U.S. proposals. While less emotive, security issues need to be central to U.S. concerns about the viability of any "final status" accord and its impact on U.S. interests and allies. It is difficult, however, to assess this aspect of the proposals because so many key security issues were evidently not raised by the President in his pre-Christmas oral presentation to the two sides. They may have been the subject of previous or subsequent discussions among the parties, but they were not on the President's core agenda.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Palestine
377. China And US Foreign Policy In The Asia-Pacific: Living With American Dominance
- Author:
- Mike Smith and Nicholas Khoo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Second World War, US foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific has been characterized by the assertion of American dominance. To this end, policy-makers in Washington have adopted a varied policy towards China. From 1950 to 1972, the US pursued a containment policy designed to thwart the revolutionary goals of Maoist foreign policy. Beginning with Nixon's rapprochement with Beijing in 1972, US policy was dramatically altered to meet the overriding goal of deterring the Soviet threat. The US and China actively cooperated to contain Soviet and Vietnamese influence in Northeast and Southeast Asia. The end of the Cold War, preceded shortly before by the Tiananmen massacre, saw another shift in the US position, whereby China was no longer looked upon with favour in Washington. Acting on his presidential campaign promises not to repeat George Bush Senior's policy of 'coddling dictators'in Beijing, President Clinton initially enacted a policy that explicitly linked China's human rights record to the renewal of most favoured- nation trade status with the US. When this linkage failed, a striking policy reversal occurred as the Clinton administration adopted an unrestrained engagement policy in which it eventually underplayed Sino-US differences in the spheres of trade, human rights, and strategic-military ties.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, Washington, Beijing, and Asia
378. European Security And Defence Policy After Nice
- Author:
- Terry Terriff, Mark Webber, Stuart Croft, and Jolyon Howorth
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- The Nice Summit will best be remembered for the eponymous treaty, designed to make the necessary institutional reforms to allow the European Union to enlarge, but progress in the sphere of security and defence is no less significant. Following changes that began at St Malo in 1998, the EU member states demonstrated their willingness to share the security burden with the United States. However, this apparently positive move has been greeted with caution at best, hostility at worst in the US, where the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) is sometimes portrayed as a threat to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). What has enabled the EU to produce a common policy on security and defence after decades of failure? What are the prospects for ESDP? What are the implications for the Atlantic Alliance?
- Topic:
- Security and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
379. The Bulgarian Defense Industry
- Author:
- Curtis M. Coward and Jeffrey P. Bialos
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This Report identifies strategic options available to the Bulgarian government and its defense industry, as well as the United States and its NATO partners, for transforming and repositioning the industry for the 21st century and facilitating its integration into the NATO and European Union industrial base. Since other Partnership for Peace (PfP) countries that are aspirants to NATO membership face similar difficulties concerning their defense industries, many of the recommendations herein apply to these countries as well. The report is based on numerous interviews with officials of government entities, private sector firms, and nongovernmental organizations and a review of pertinent governmental and private reports and original documents. A number of the members of the Atlantic Council's working group visited Bulgaria and several of its defense firms in April 2001. Given limitations of time and access to information, the report does not, however, attempt to set forth a thorough review of each firm in the Bulgarian industry.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Eastern Europe
380. Permanent Alliance? NATO's Prague Summit and Beyond
- Author:
- C. Richard Nelson, Chas W. Freeman Jr., Wesley K. Clark, Max Cleland, Gordon Smith, and Robert L. Hutchings
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With U.S. leadership, the Alliance has undertaken an impressive transformation over the past decade: from the July 1990 London Summit, which heralded a “Europe whole and free,” to the April 1999 Washington Summit, which welcomed three former Warsaw Pact members as new allies, even as NATO forces were engaged in combat for the first time. But the Alliance has not yet realized its full potential as an institution embracing all democratic nations of Europe dedicated to collective defense and embodying the interests and values of the transatlantic community. Moreover, the allies still confront important challenges to their shared goal of bringing lasting security to the European continent as a whole, as well as to the overall vitality of the transatlantic relationship.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and London
381. The Defense Monitor: Fiscal Year 2002 Budget Request
- Author:
- Christopher Hellman and Daniel Smith
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- The bush administration is requesting $343.2 billion for the Pentagon in Fiscal Year 2002. This is $32.6 billion above current levels, and includes the $14.2 billion increase requested for the military in the March budget release (see below). This total also includes $14.3 billion for the defense functions of the Department of Energy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
382. The Defense Monitor: NMD Development is not Hostage to the ABM Treaty
- Author:
- Philip E. Coyle
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- To prove he is serious about National Missile Defense, President George W. Bush must abrogate the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty now, according to the most strident critics of the treaty. The longstanding ABM accord with Russia, it is said, is thwarting the technology needed for missile defense.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States
383. The Defense Monitor: The Security Environment in Asia
- Author:
- Nicholas Berry
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Defense Information
- Abstract:
- The security environment in Asia has become highly complex since the end of the Cold War. A legacy from that superpower struggle still affects security relations, but what is surprising is the re-emergence of issues associated with World War II and before. Asians have long memories. Their injuries are not forgotten. Past history is just yesterday.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
384. In Focus: Masculinity As Foreign Policy Issue
- Author:
- Cynthia Enloe
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- Feminist analysis reveals some of the chief causes and costs of militarizing U.S. foreign policies. Civilian policymakers' desire to appear “manly” is a chief reason for the Pentagon's remarkable influence over current U.S. foreign policy. U.S. military policies today marginalize women and entrench the masculinization of political life at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Gender Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States
385. In Focus: Central Asia: Aral Sea Problem
- Author:
- Erika Weinthal
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- U.S. foreign policy is geared toward oil development in Central Asia. The Aral Sea crisis has offered a safe issue-area in which to exert U.S. foreign policy in Central Asia. Effectively mitigating the Aral Sea crisis in Central Asia has proven more difficult than originally conceived by U.S. and Central Asian policymakers.
- Topic:
- Security, Environment, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, Central Asia, and Asia
386. American Evenhandedness in the Mideast Peace Process: Lessons From Camp David II and the Al-Aqsa Intifada
- Author:
- Saul Singer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Ask Israelis or Arabs to characterize the U.S.-Israel relationship and most, particularly on the Arab side, will argue that the picture is one of unwavering support for the Jewish state. Indeed, the outgoing Clinton administration has been widely perceived and labeled as the closest to Israel in the history of the U.S.-Israel relationship. Though the ties between the U.S. and Israel are indeed close, deep, and institutionalized, a closer examination reveals a constant tension between support for Israel and "evenhandedness" between Israel and the Arab world.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
387. Religion and the Public Square: Attitudes of American Jews in Comparative Perspective - Part Two
- Author:
- Steven M. Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Attitudes toward separation-accommodation are related to support for (or opposition to) the expression of religion in public life. Within each of the three samples, church-state separationists were more likely than accommodationists to oppose expanded religious influence in society and the involvement of churches and church leaders in political affairs. Table 5 contains several relevant questions in this domain.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States
388. The End of the Post-Gulf War Era
- Author:
- Dore Gold
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Three basic conditions prevailed when the Arab-Israeli peace process began in 1991 in Madrid and accelerated in 1993 at Oslo. First, the Soviet Union crumbled and eventually collapsed, removing what had since 1955 been the strategic backbone of the Arab military option against the State of Israel. Second, Iraq was militarily crushed and under both UN sanctions and monitoring, and was therefore removed from the political and military calculus of relations between Israel and the Arab world. Third, Iran was still recovering from its eight-year war with Iraq and was far from ready to have an impact in the Middle East. Together, these three conditions created a unique moment of Pax Americana, maintained not just by virtue of American power, but by the consent of its potential rivals.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, United Nations, War, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Soviet Union
389. Overthrowing Saddam Hussein: The Policy Debate
- Author:
- Max Singer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi dictator, has biological weapons capable of killing hundreds of thousands of Israelis with infectious diseases such as anthrax. These weapons could be delivered either by missiles, by small pilotless planes, or by infecting the passengers of a plane landing at Ben-Gurion Airport with less than an ounce of agent spread through the plane's air conditioning system. Saddam also has at least several nuclear weapons that are missing only highly enriched uranium which he is likely to be able either to make himself or to buy this year.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
390. Colombia -- Peace Process
- Author:
- first last
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The recent advances in the peace process have brought the possibility of a peace settlement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia closer. International mediation and support will be key for the successful completion of the process and the implementation of any peace agreements. The United States has expressed its interest in supporting peace, but considerations will continue to be dominated by anti-drugs and security issues. European cooperation will also be important. Despite the progress made so far, the pacification of the country remains a distant goal.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and South America
391. Are We Prepared for Terrorism Using Weapons of Mass Destruction? Government's Half Measures
- Author:
- Eric R. Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In 1996 the U.S. Congress passed and the president signed the Nunn-Lugar-Domenici Act on domestic preparedness for terrorism using weapons of mass destruction. That law directs various departments and agencies of the federal government to make available to state and local governments training and equipment to respond to acts of terrorism involving the use of radiological, biological, and chemical weapons. The program—costing tens of billions of dollars per year—seeks to train local law enforcement, fire, medical, and other emergency response personnel to deal with such an attack against the American public.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
392. Green Wars: Making Environmental Degradation a National Security Issue Puts Peace and Security at Risk
- Author:
- Paul Benjamin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Cold War, a fundamental shift in national security policy has taken place in the United States. No longer restricting itself to such issues as military alliances, the strategic behavior of other great powers, and nuclear strike capabilities, security policy now tackles environmental degradation, poverty, infectious diseases, drug use, and other problems. Moreover, it increasingly posits them as threats to the national security of the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- United States
393. A UN Protection Force For Palestinians: Background And Implications
- Author:
- Robert Satloff and Rachel Stroumsa
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In recent weeks, Arab parties from the Palestinian Authority (PA) to the Arab League summit have called for the dispatch of a United Nations force to the West Bank and Gaza in order to protect Palestinian civilians from Israeli military force. Rather than reject this idea because of its contribution to the internationalization of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, the U.S. view has been to cite its impracticality, given Israeli opposition. Remarkably, the Israeli government itself seems to be hinting that it may be willing to consider the proposal, especially in the event of a reduction in violence. This is evidenced by recent talks between Israeli and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) representatives to the United Nations, reportedly hosted by their Egyptian colleague.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Gaza, and Egypt
394. The Israeli-Lebanese Border Dispute And Resolution 425: Recent Declarations By The United States And The United Nations
- Author:
- Liat Radcliffe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- "The Arab leaders affirm that just, comprehensive peace will not be achieved except with . . . the restoration of all the occupied Arab territories, including full Israeli withdrawal from . . . southern Lebanon to the internationally recognized borders, including Shebaa farms, the release of Arab prisoners in Israeli prisons in implementation of the relevant UN resolutions. . . ."
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Lebanon
395. Between Terrorism And Truce: Developments In Middle East Violence
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The truce reached today should be interpreted very cautiously, given both today's terror bombing in Jerusalem, which killed two Israeli civilians, and the two previous failed ceasefires recently brokered by the United States in Paris and Sharm el-Sheikh, respectively. Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Yasir Arafat was due to announce the truce but instead opted to have other PA officials announce it on Palestinian television and radio. Moreover, Hamas quickly declared that it is not bound by the terms of the ceasefire. Prime Minister Ehud Barak's office nevertheless announced that the ceasefire is in effect.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Paris, Arabia, and Jerusalem
396. Special Policy Forum Report: The Escalating Crisis In The Middle East -- Prospects And Policy, Robert Satloff
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The last two weeks have been symptomatic of the different sort of Middle East the United States will be facing in the early years of the new decade. Whereas the dominant context of the 1990s was peacemaking punctuated by intermittent bouts of violence and conflict, the new decade will be marked by violence and conflict punctuated by intermittent bouts of diplomacy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries
397. From Riots To Diplomacy: Re-Thinking Principles, Assessing Options
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The fact that U.S. and Israeli officials—not Yasir Arafat—announced that the Palestinian leader had ordered a halt to violence in the West Bank and Gaza highlights the failure of the U.S.-led summit meeting in Paris. This underscores the prospect that the al-Aqsa Intifada—as Palestinians have termed the week-long spasm of violence and rioting—is a turning point, not a transitory blip, in the seven-year-old Oslo peace process. To the Clinton Administration, engrossed in the peace process since 1993, this came as a painful setback. Chances are high, however, that the President will wade into Arab-Israeli diplomacy at least once again before leaving office-either for one last push toward agreement or to ward off the accusation that he focused on peace when opportunity beckoned but left a mess to his successor. Much will depend on whether violence actually abates soon, as promised; on Arafat's success in internationalizing the conflict, as his current UN gambit for an international inquiry suggests; on the political fortunes of Israel's Ehud Barak and the potential for a national unity government; and on the outcome of the November election (i.e., will the passing of the baton next January be characterized, by and large, by continuity in policy and personnel [a Gore victory] or reassessments and staffing up lag-time [a Bush victory]?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries
398. Special Policy Forum Report; Jerusalem's Status And The Evolution Of U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Shlomo Slonim and Geoffrey Watson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Since 1967, U.S. administrations have varied their policy regarding the status of East Jerusalem. Under the Johnson and Reagan administrations, East Jerusalem was not considered occupied territory, and, consequently, Israeli control of the city in its entirety was implicitly accepted. Johnson emphasized that the international interest lay only with the holy sites of Jerusalem, and Reagan indicated that Jerusalem as a whole should remain under exclusive Israeli administration. In contrast, the Nixon and Bush administrations viewed East Jerusalem as occupied territory, therefore implicitly calling for a reorganization, if not redivision, of the city. The Nixon administration was the first to declare East Jerusalem "occupied" under the provisions of the 1949 Geneva Convention, and Bush went so far as to declare Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem as contrary to international law. The Carter and Clinton administrations were both ambiguous about the status of East Jerusalem.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
399. Palestinian Track: Getting Down To Business
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With Israeli-Palestinian peace talks getting underway in Eilat this weekend, the Middle East seems to be switching peace tracks yet again. After President Bill Clinton held separate White House meetings with Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat earlier this month, State Department spokesman James Rubin said, "In our judgment, the next six to eight weeks could well be a decisive phase in the pursuit of peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis. . . . That phase obviously is now including a more intensive American involvement." This shift—after several months of focusing on Syria talks—does not necessarily mean that the Syrian track can be considered dead and buried (and indeed Arab leaders such as Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah are said to be quietly seeking to revive that track). Yet, operationally, it means that the United States and Israel will no longer wait for Syria as they revive the Palestinian track and plan for Israel's pullback from Lebanon in July.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, Saudi Arabia, and Syria
400. Syria's Critique Of The U.S. Draft Treaty: A Textual Analysis
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Syria-Israel negotiations are on hold, but Israelis and Syrians have found a way to negotiate through third parties—the media. Two weeks ago, Israel leaked the U.S. draft text of a proposed peace treaty, complete with a timeline for implementation, in the Israeli daily Ha'aretz. Over the last ten days, a surprised and embarrassed Syria has responded with its own leaks through the Lebanese media. Beirut's al-Safir newspaper is the favored recipient of these leaks, the most authoritative of which were a set of interviews by Syrian foreign minister Faruq al-Shara and a document detailing article-by-article amendments to the proposed U.S. text. The Shara interviews highlight Syria's (professed) obsession with dignity as an essential ingredient in negotiations as well as Damascus's demand that the United States procure a clear Israeli commitment to withdraw to the June 4, 1967 borders prior to the renewal of talks. More important, though, is the al-Safir critique of the original U.S. draft treaty. A close reading of that chilly document suggests that Syria is keen to project the image of offering Israel only an arctic-cold peace, correcting the impression advanced by some press reports that al-Shara had offered numerous concessions to Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak during the Shepherdstown talks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Syria