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101. Waiting for blowback: The Kurdish question and Turkey’s new regional militarism

Author:
Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Recent Turkish interventions in parts of Syria, Iraq and Turkey itself, look like pushing various Kurdish armed forces and political groupings towards ‘defeat’ via a concerted regional strategy that combines battlefield action with repression and co-optation. But the ‘anti-terrorist’ frame and tactics that Ankara uses in a bid to solve its Kurdish problem feature many sticks and no compromises to improve Kurdish collective minority rights. It is likely that this approach will inhibit peaceful resistance and fail to reduce support for armed groups like the PKK and PYD despite their own authoritarian practices. Moreover, Turkey’s new regional militarism risks escalating conflict across the Middle East because of the complex international and transnational contexts in which Ankara’s interventions take place.
Topic:
International Affairs, Non State Actors, Conflict, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

102. Idlib: The New Strategic Nucleus of the Battle over Syria

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
After Turkey’s unsuccessful ultimatum set for the Syrian regime and its Russian ally to commit to the Sochi Agreement, Ankara has targeted the Assad regime and its allies’ locations along the de-escalation zone by launching Operation Spring Shield. Russia has capitalized on Turkey’s anger by offering an agreement establishing new facts on ground during a Turkish-Russian summit on March 5th.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, United States of America, and Idlib

103. The Sirte-Jufra line: a front in the war or the basis of negotiations?

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Although all indications are that most of the principal players favour a political resolution, the military situation will remain volatile as long as Haftar’s forces are in Sirte and remain in control of the economically vital oil region.
Topic:
War, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Turkey, Libya, and North Africa

104. Turkey and Egypt: toward a necessary de-escalation

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Despite the recent escalation and the stark divide between their vision of their interests and roles, both Turkey and Egypt realise that a direct clash would be damaging for both of them. In fact, there are indications that both states are more pragmatic than their bellicose statements indicate.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Egypt

105. Turkey and Greece: pouring gas on the eastern Mediterranean dispute

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Turkish-Greek conflict over maritime borders is unlike any other in the world. Not only does it involve potentially vast wealth under the seabed in the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean, it relies on diverse and competing legal sources and interpretations.
Topic:
Oil, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Maritime, and Borders
Political Geography:
Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

106. A new Gaza: Turkey’s border policy in northern Syria

Author:
Asli Aydıntaşbaş
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Turkey now controls a long stretch of Syrian territory along its southern border that hosts nearly four million people, most of them Sunni Arabs. The challenges for Turkey there include a difficult balancing act with Russia, the huge financial costs of direct rule, the presence of radical Islamist factions, and the lack of a modus vivendi with the Kurds. Turkey faces the risk of the “Gazafication” of the area – the emergence of a militarily controlled territory that is perennially poverty-stricken and unstable. EU member states can find ways to cooperate with Turkey to support stabilisation in parts of the safe zone, without violating their interests and core principles. They should single out the Euphrates Shield Zone for stabilisation work, on the understanding that other areas captured from the Kurds are politically sensitive for European governments and voters alike. Europe should aim to strike a grand bargain with Turkey: in return for targeted European reconstruction aid to the safe zone, the country would lift its veto on stabilisation in Kurdish-controlled areas, allow trade between these zones, or agree to Kurdish participation in the UN-led political process on Syria.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Border Control, Geopolitics, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Gaza, Syria, and Idlib

107. The Nagorno-Karabakh war: A new balance of power in the southern Caucasus

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Despite the ambiguity around the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the war produced clear winners – Azerbaijan and Turkey – and losers – Armenia, France, the United States and Iran.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, France, Armenia, Azerbaijan, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh

108. The Erdogan Doctrine: Turkey’s regional strategy

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Turkey’s involvement in various conflicts is a reflection of the Erdogan Doctrine that was formed by internal transformations that have led to the creation of a sophisticated military industry and a prosperous economy and shifted its view of its external role as an independent regional power.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Economy, Conflict, Erdogan, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

109. Turkey's Opposition vs. the AKP: Measuring Messaging

Author:
Soner Cagaptay and Reilly Barry
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Challengers to Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are proliferating, with two breakaway parties drawing particular notice. In December 2019, Ahmet Davutoglu, who served under Erdogan as foreign minister and then prime minister, formed Gelecek (Future) in an attempt to resurrect a gentler version of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). And this past March, former finance minister Ali Babacan, credited with masterminding the country’s “economic miracle” in the early Erdogan years, established the Democracy and Progress Party as another right-leaning alternative to the AKP. The remaining aspirants include the Peoples’ Democratic Party, whose capable leader remains imprisoned for allegedly supporting Kurdish militants. This Policy Note, by Soner Cagaptay and Reilly Barry, examines the political identities of Turkey’s opposition parties as compared to the AKP and allied Nationalist Action Party. It does so through an unconventional method: analyzing voter outreach through Twitter, a medium widely used by Turks. The results reveal striking trends in how these parties view Turkey’s republican (and imperial) past, and what these views suggest about the country’s political future.
Topic:
Government, Domestic Politics, and AKP
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

110. Prospects for Syrian Kurdish Unity: Assessing Local and Regional Dynamics

Author:
Sirwan Kajjo
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In October 2019, the U.S. troop withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion of northern Syria upended Kurdish plans in the region. But a year later, the major Syrian Kurdish rivals—the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and Kurdish National Council (KNC)—are coming together after a lengthy estrangement. This past June, representatives from the two blocs announced a new understanding to govern Syria’s northeast, in talks mediated by the Syrian Democratic Forces. The negotiations are aimed at creating a representative Kurdish-led leadership that could prevent further Turkish military interventions while also reducing Syrian-regime and Russian influence. But the PYD and KNC’s differing approaches to governance, as well as divergent alliances, pose serious challenges. In situating this timely Policy Note, Sirwan Kajjo offers a revealing history of Kurdish politics in Syria, especially in the post-Arab Spring period. Despite the uncertain outcome of the talks, for which activity resumed in late summer, both sides assert that a positive course can only be ensured by a strong U.S role.
Topic:
Military Intervention, Syrian War, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Syria, Kurdistan, and United States of America

111. The Outlook for Turkish Democracy: 2023 and Beyond

Author:
Nick Danforth
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Over nearly two decades, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan has managed to strengthen his hold on power despite numerous political reconfigurations. With the next presidential election scheduled for 2023, many figures within his camp are already maneuvering for leverage while the opposition mulls how to defeat him. Among his potential rivals are Selahattin Demirtas, head of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party; Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul who bested Erdogan’s pick for that post; and Ahmet Davutoglu, the country’s former prime minister and Erdogan’s former ally. In this Policy Note, analyst Nick Danforth assesses current dynamics in Turkish democracy, including rifts within the leading Justice and Development Party and potential alliances in the opposition. He also discusses factors such as the fragile Turkish economy, which is sure to be destabilized further by the coronavirus pandemic. However Turkey emerges from the crisis, an Erdogan triumph in the next presidential vote would likely seal the country’s trajectory away from liberalism and the West for a generation.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

112. The Climate Crisis and the City: The Significance of Cities as the Perpetrator and the Victim of, and as “a” Solution to the Climate Crisis

Author:
Efe Baysal
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Let us face it: we are in the midst of a catastrophe, a state of calamity unprecedented in human history. We are living in those scenarios that once depicted a terrible future due to “global warming”. Extreme weather events, not-so-natural disasters have become the new norm. Given the fact that more than half of the world’s population now live in urban areas, it is fair to say that these new climate norms pose an especially dire threat to cities.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, Economy, Crisis Management, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Global Focus

113. Representation of Women in the Judiciary in Turkey

Author:
Bertil Emrah Oder
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The recently announced Judicial Reform Strategy was subject to public debate with a series of promises ranging from issuing green passports to lawyers as a privileged of visa exemptions to the introduction of an appeal process in criminal cases concerning the freedom of expression.1 The fundamental shortcoming of this new strategy and other reform efforts is the lack of a specific agenda on the representation of women professionals in the judiciary, especially in the leading positions including the apex courts. Policies on women’s representation in the judiciary remained “invisible” in recent reform efforts on judicial policies.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Law, Women, Inequality, Courts, Criminal Justice, and Representation
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

114. Muddling Through Environmental Politics: The City, the Climate Crisis, and Democracy

Author:
Sezai Ozan Zeybek
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
I aim to open to discussion one of the critical barriers to potentially transformative environmental policies. In response to challenging problems there are moves being carried out to save the day, to make it seem like the issue is already solved. These moves end up postponing the real solutions. This is a trap that not only municipalities, public institutions and companies, but even civil society falls into.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Environment, Governance, Democracy, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

115. 5 Years Of The Law On Foreigners And International Protection: Problems Of Implementation And Suggested Solutions

Author:
Hakkı Onur Arıner
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Turkey’s Law on Foreigners and International Protection (LFIP) was adopted on 4 April 2013 by the Turkish Grand National Assembly. In the five years that has passed since the coming into force of the LFIP in its entirety, it appears that the LFIP has been made to adapt to the conditions of Turkey, rather than the other way around, due to the sheer unexpected size of the phenomenon of immigration into Turkey, and the challenges encountered in establishing the institutional capacity and the inter- institutional cooperation necessary to deal with the inflows as required by the Law.
Topic:
Government, Human Rights, Migration, Refugee Issues, and Law
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

116. Turkey Pivots to Tripoli: Implications for Libya’s Civil War and U.S. Policy

Author:
Soner Cagaptay and Ben Fishman
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Facing pressure from General Haftar and his foreign military backers, the Tripoli government has welcomed the helping hand extended by Ankara, whose own lack of regional options has drawn it into the middle of another conflict. On December 10, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that he was willing to deploy troops in Libya if the UN-backed Government of National Accord in Tripoli requested it. He reiterated the offer during a December 15 meeting with GNA prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj in Ankara—a visit that arose after Gen. Khalifa Haftar, who heads the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) and seeks to replace the GNA, renewed his push to take Tripoli by force. Meanwhile, Turkey signed two controversial agreements with Tripoli over the past month: a memorandum of understanding on providing the GNA with arms, training, and military personnel, formally ratified by Tripoli earlier today; and a November 28 maritime agreement delineating exclusive economic zones in the Mediterranean waters separating the two countries. The latter move drew protests from Greece and Egypt and was condemned “unequivocally” by the European Council. These and other developments indicate Libya’s emerging status as a focal point of Ankara’s foreign policy, which seemingly regards the country as an arena for Turkish proxy competition with rivals old (Greece) and new (Egypt and the United Arab Emirates). At the same time, Libya’s GNA has become increasingly dependent on Ankara for military reasons—namely, a lack of other allies willing to provide arms capable of countering the LNA’s Emiratisupplied drones, and the arrival of Russian mercenaries who have added new technology and precision to Haftar’s war against Tripoli. Unless Washington invests more diplomatic energy and fully backs the German-led initiative to implement a ceasefire and return to peace negotiations, the proxy war in Libya will only escalate. In that scenario, Turkey and Russia—not the United States or its European partners—could be become the arbiters of Libya’s future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil War, Military Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and United States of America

117. Kurdish Reactions to Their Abandonment in Syria

Author:
Bilal Wahab
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The U.S. withdrawal of troops from northeast Syria has placed Kurdish fighters in a near-impossible situation, while alarming Kurdish communities in other countries, but Washington can still take steps to mitigate the damage. On October 21, footage of Kurdish civilians heckling withdrawing U.S. troops in both Iraq and Syria offered a rare and disturbing sight. This scene was facilitated by President Trump’s October 6 decision to unilaterally withdraw U.S. forces from Syria, in effect paving the way for the Turkish military to cross the Syrian border three days later and attack the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Thereafter, a safe haven quickly became a war zone. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 180,000 people have now been forced from their homes. James Jeffrey, the U.S. administration’s envoy to Syria, told Congress on October 22 that the fighting has resulted in hundreds of SDF deaths, a likely war crime by a pro-Turkish militia, and the escape from prison of more than a hundred Islamic State (IS) fighters. The U.S. action has unsurprisingly left the Syrian Kurds feeling abandoned and exposed against the militarily superior Turkish army and its Arab militias. On a deeper level, America appears to have entirely lost Kurdish sympathy and trust, while at the same time failing to either deter or appease Turkey. Rather than ameliorate matters, President Trump has poured salt on the wound. He responded to backlash against his policy by claiming the Kurds were “no angels” and that they had failed to contribute to the Allied cause in World War II, while characterizing their Syrian military campaign as a fight over “long-bloodstained sand.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Military Affairs, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, United States of America, and Rojava

118. Turkey in northwestern Syria: Rebuilding empire at the margins

Author:
Erwin van Veen and Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief analyses the official discourse and actual practices of Turkish control and reconstruction in northwestern Syria. It finds that Turkey pursues a strategy that seeks to achieve control and influence through a mix of military occupation and fullscale reconstruction based on the logic of Turkification and the deployment abroad of the domestic apparatus of the Turkish state. The main objective of this strategy is to contain and undo the politico-territorial gains of the Syrian Kurds. In the process, Turkey largely bypasses the Syrian National Coalition. While this ‘reconstruct-the-buffer-zone’ strategy has been comparatively successful in the Al-Bab-Azaz-Jarablus area, it is running into trouble in the Kurdish-dominated Afrin area due to heavy-handed Turkish tactics of repression and the insurgency campaign that was launched by the Syrian Kurds. Yet, the nature of Turkish reconstruction engagement suggest it is there to stay, which in turn is likely to prolong the Syrian conflict. It will also create several problems from an EU policy perspective, including repression of Syria’s Kurds, an uncertain future of Syrian refugees in Turkey and violation of international law.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Conflict, Syrian War, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

119. Global Forums: Are They Must or Waste for the Global Governance?

Author:
Gülen Derya Zayim
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
The age of globalization has brought about interdependency between the nation-states in all aspects of life while uncovering challenges for the sovereignty of the nations. Therefore, how an integrated world system involving multiple actors can efficiently be governed remain a subject of serious discussions. This study briefly explains the historical background of G7/8 along with its evolution to G20 and discusses their effectiveness and legitimacy in the context of global governance. It is worthy to discuss the issue since these global forums’ legitimacy and effectiveness subject to both critics and praises. Although the lessons from the global financial crisis consolidates the idea of global coherence, integrity and compliance, diverging political and economic conflict of interest of nations still make the international forums’ existence and future position in global governance open to discussions. Additionally, the last part of the study draws conclusion about Turkey and its place in global governance.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Financial Crisis, Governance, and G20
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Global Focus, and Mediterranean

120. Countdown for Brexit: What to Expect for UK, EU and Turkey?

Author:
Burak Cop
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
As the most divisive issue of the British politics since 2016, the Brexit phenomenon continues to shake the two biggest mainstream parties, Conservatives and Labour. The Conservative Party is affected by the tension between the Soft and Hard Brexiters, but the divisiveness Brexit brings about hits Labour even worse. A No Deal or Hard Brexit is likely to strengthen Scotland’s bid for independence. Scotland’s probable departure from the UK will surely be encouraging for other secessionist movements in Europe, however it should be noted that the window of opportunity Brexit opens for Scottish nationalists constitutes a rather exceptional case in Europe. One could argue that the “Norway model” for post-Brexit UK could be valid for Turkey too, but that model aims to bring about a deeper integration than what the proponents of “EU-Turkey exclusive partnership” prescribe for Turkey.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Political Parties, and Secession
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, North America, Scotland, and European Union

121. Turkish municipal elections: AKP victory tastes like defeat in major cities

Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Overall, the AKP’s vote share in the 30 biggest cities declined from 2014, continuing a trend seen first in the 2017 referendum. The reversal in AKP fortunes is most evident in Istanbul, often considered a microcosm of Turkey.
Topic:
International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey

122. Turkish municipal elections: AKP victory tastes like defeat in major cities

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Overall, the AKP’s vote share in the 30 biggest cities declined from 2014, continuing a trend seen first in the 2017 referendum. The reversal in AKP fortunes is most evident in Istanbul, often considered a microcosm of Turkey.
Topic:
International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey

123. An International Look at the Women’s Movement: The Gender Agenda of the Global South

Author:
Berfu Şeker
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
We are at a time when the global politics of women’s rights, gender and feminism are intersecting at the regional and national level, forming around similar dynamics and practices. Against the gains made by women and LGBTI+ groups towards changing gender politics until the 2000s, we are seeing that new populist trends have been gaining power since 2000s.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Women, Inequality, Populism, Feminism, and LGBT+
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

124. Turkey’s Social Assistance Regime: Is It Time For Basic Income?

Author:
Emrah Irzık
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Founded on a rationale that is different than access to income and the benefits of social security systems such as pensions and health insurance which are earned in exchange for work, the importance of social assistances today is increasing both in the quantitative and in the qualitative senses. To what extent however is the present social assistances regime in Turkey that is fragmented, insufficient and based on debatable principles, able to respond to the changing face of poverty?
Topic:
Poverty, Governance, Social Policy, and Universal Basic Income
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

125. On The Spatial and Legal Problems That Will Arise After Zoning Amnesty

Author:
Akif Burak Atlar
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The resurfacing of ‘populist’ legal arrangements such as raises for civil servants and pensioners, minimum wage policies, paid military service and debt restructuring that carry along vote potential are a strange tradition of our country’s politics. Zoning Peace is a legal arrangement that was part of the omnibus bill passed in the run up to the 24 June elections. As the 2018 version of zoning amnesties which have been recurring throughout Turkey’s urban history and creating spatial and legal chaos by redefining zoning rights, it has taken its place in the urban planning dictionary. What will then be the practical outcome of this new edition zoning amnesty?
Topic:
Governance, Legislation, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

126. Fracture In Food And Agriculture As Urban And Rural Areas Integrate: Searching For New Horizons Where The Old Stalls

Author:
Bediz Yılmaz
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
We are at a time when old definitions are being shaken up. Here I will track these splits and try to see what traces are shaping in their place. Let’s start with the city and the rural area. There is a credo of a definition in urban sociology. Despite changes in the social reality and notwithstanding those sociological approaches with a critical perspective, this definition does not change and is repeated through generations. The definition says: “City is the place where nonagricultural economic activities take place.” It is difficult to assert the validity of this definition in any particular time in history, and one does not know where to begin to explain that it does not stand today either. If you live in a medium-sized city like Mersin it is especially difficult to tell apart the city and rural areas, which one violates the other, what exactly is a rural area and which way it falls.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Food Security, Economy, Urban, and Rural
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

127. An Assessment of Institutional and Legal Factors in Relation to Failure of Urban Regeneration

Author:
Tuna Kuyucu
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Large scale urban renewal projects, or ‘urban regeneration’ projects as commonly known in Turkey, are one of the most important political tools for the transition of cities from industry into service-heavy economic structures. Since 1970s regeneration projects have triggered substantial changes in urban economic geographies and caused extensive demographic shifts in the idle industrial, coastal and low socioeconomic residential areas of cities in late-capitalist countries. Yet, in Turkey they have started being implemented much later, with the first comprehensive regeneration policy devised in 2005 when the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power. Until 2000’s there existed significant financial and legal barriers to urban renewal. Struggling with budget deficits and high interest rates throughout the 90s, the state was not financially capable of urban renewal, which requires significant resources. On the other hand, Turkey’s local governance policies and financing did not allow municipalities to implement such projects by themselves. Finally, private sector actors (real estate investment trusts, major contractors, finance companies) lacked either any interest or the resources for urban renewal projects in the pre-2002 period characterised by high interest rates and inflation. When all these factors combined, despite serious need for regeneration and renewal in Turkey’s cities, unfortunately regeneration projects almost never came to life.
Topic:
History, Governance, Legislation, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

128. Budget Transparency for Democratic Governance at the Local Level

Author:
Emre Koyuncu
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
We are getting in the mood of the March 2019 local elections just as the general election has ended, and it looks as if the boat will be pushed out once again. Really, we do have a budget, right? At present, it remains an uncertainty how the central budget, our shared pool of resources, will be managed. Yet, we shall see how changes in the relations between the actors responsible for the tools, if not in the tools themselves, are reflected in practice. Hoping that they are at least transparent, we will examine budget transparency for democratic governance mainly through the lens of local government.
Topic:
Governance, Budget, Elections, and Transparency
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

129. Developing Child-Sensitive Strategies in Local Government

Author:
Bürge Elvan Erginli
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This policy brief is published in the framework of “Inclusive Local Governance for Sustainable City” project under the umbrella project “Supporting Sustainable Cities” of TESEV funded by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Liberty. Actors of various sizes all participate in local programmes, plans and actions on the path towards achieving Sustainable Development Goals. International and regional cooperation are necessary for attaining these goals, for which central government may prove more crucial in its effects, while the inclusion of local actors is imperative for following both a more efficient path and achieving democratic participation. It is thus timely to highlight the importance of local participation in identifying and implementing the 11th Sustainable Development Goal, Sustainable City and Human Settlements. This goal, in which the issues of the right to the city under inclusion(1) the creation of accessible and safe urban spaces for all, and the active and direct participation of civil society come to the forefront, necessitates the active participation of metropolitan municipalities of local governments, as well as district municipalities which are in most contact on many issues with the city’s residents.
Topic:
Education, Governance, Children, Inequality, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

130. Purple Economy: A Strategy for Women’s Equal Economic Participation towards Sustainable Cities

Author:
İpek İlkkaracan
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This policy brief is published in the framework of “Women’s Participation for Sustainable City” project under the umbrella project “Supporting Sustainable Cities” of TESEV funded by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Liberty. If one were asked to associate a color with the concept of “sustainable cities,” the first to come to mind would be probably green. Not surprising, given that the issue of sustainability originated out of concerns for the environmental crisis and the green economy was proposed as a vision of an environmentally sustainable economy. Today it is widely acknowledged that an additional challenge to sustainability has to do with inequalities in the economic and social sphere. Gender is an important crosscutting dimension of multi-layered inequalities. Hence I would like to propose another color to associate with the concept of sustainable cities and sustainable economies, complementing the green: Purple, the symbolic color of the women’s movement in Turkey and in many countries around the world. The purple economy entails the vision of a gender egalitarian and hence a socially sustainable economy. It starts from the premise that the root cause of obstacles to women’s equal economic participation lies within the gender imbalances in the distribution of caring labor. Caring labor entails provisioning of goods and services to caredependent groups such as children, elderly, ill and people with disabilities as well as healthy adults necessary for their physical, social, mental and emotional wellbeing.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Economy, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

131. What Turkey’s Political Changes Mean for U.S.-Turkish Relations

Author:
Max Hoffman, Alan Makovsky, and Michael Werz
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
The July 9 swearing-in of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for his second term as Turkey’s president—and his subsequent decree1 thoroughly restructuring the Turkish government—have inaugurated a new phase in the country’s political history. Erdoğan will preside over a new system in which power is even more centralized in the office of the presidency than it was previously. Of course, this structure represents the institutionalization of what had been a de facto reality: Erdoğan was already the unassailable top decision-maker, and he will remain so. This continuity means that there may be little visible change in many areas of government. But the shift is emblematic of Turkey’s transformation over the last decade from an institutional, bureaucratic state into a highly personalized one. This personalization will affect Turkey’s foreign policy management, which may become even more unpredictable than it was before, with ramifications for U.S. and EU policy. As just one element of this change, Western diplomats may find that long-time Turkish diplomatic or military contacts have diminished authority and responsibility as foreign and security policy development is centralized in the presidential palace.2 Given his complete personal control, it is time to take seriously President Erdoğan’s apparent desire for Turkey to chart a more independent course, one that shows less deference to the ties that have long bound Turkey to the Western security architecture. During the swearing-in ceremony in Ankara, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro hailed his Turkish counterpart as the “leader of the new multi-polar world.”3 Erdoğan and his advisers certainly share this view: They believe that the United States is in decline, that the world is fundamentally multipolar, and that Turkey deserves to be a center of gravity in its own right.4 They further feel that the West is hypocritical in its espousal of democratic values and human rights. Therefore, they have concluded that Turkey’s traditional, Western-oriented foreign policy is obsolete.5 This worldview has led Erdoğan to adopt a transactional approach toward the United States and Europe and cultivate ties with Iran, China, and—especially—Russia.6 Alongside this understanding of a changing world, President Erdoğan has built his domestic political legitimacy on an aggressive nationalism that includes at its core deeply anti-Western and anti-American rhetoric.7 This was on full display in Erdoğan’s recent electoral campaign, which relied heavily on anti-Western resentment, conspiratorial thinking, and the cultivation of a sense of national threat—all staples of the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) politics in recent years. Meanwhile, the election empowered the extreme nationalists of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). This will only reinforce the negative trends in the government’s political orientation, given the MHP’s deep suspicion toward the United States and hostility toward any reopening of dialogue with Kurdish populations in eastern Turkey and northern Syria. This issue brief considers the ramifications of these changes for U.S. policy, providing recommendations for how the U.S. government should approach bilateral relations with Turkey in the months ahead. It is a policy designed to maintain the viability of U.S.-Turkish relations while seeking to restore Turkish respect for U.S. interests.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, North America, and United States of America

132. A Snapshot of Turkish Public Opinion Toward the European Union

Author:
Max Hoffman
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
n the wake of Turkey’s June 24 presidential and parliamentary elections, Ankara has undertaken a coordinated campaign aimed at rejuvenating ties with the European Union in the face of a dramatic downturn in the Turkish economy. Turkish-European relations had grown strained in recent years over Turkey’s stalled accession process to join the bloc, as well as the country’s authoritarian drift, sweeping crackdown on dissent, management of the migration crisis, and the cases of EU citizens held in Turkish prison on what European governments considered trumped-up charges.1 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan took repeated rhetorical shots at European leaders in 2016 and 2017,2 even suggesting German Chancellor Angela Merkel exhibited “Nazism” for saying that Turkey’s EU accession bid could be reconsidered in light of the deteriorating human rights situation.3 While President Erdoğan’s attacks may have reflected his real animus at perceived European abandonment of Turkey in the face of regional crises and a stalled EU accession process, they were also likely aimed at mobilizing and uniting domestic constituencies with deeply anti-Western views.4 But with the end of the election season and a rapid deterioration of the Turkish economy, the focus has now shifted to restoring ties with Europe. Europe is Turkey’s most important trade and investment partner, and the Turkish charm offensive is motivated by the country’s economic crisis and the crash in the value of the Turkish lira, as well as by faltering ties with the United States.5 The lira’s free fall has brought Turkey’s reliance on external financing into stark relief and even raised the possibility of an embarrassing turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or European Bank for Reconstruction and Development for financial assistance. Turning to the IMF would be a bitter pill for Erdoğan, who seeks to project an image of Turkey as strong, economically self-sufficient, and independent from outside influence. The Trump administration’s tough line on Turkey for the ongoing detention of U.S. citizens—including largely symbolic sanctions on two Turkish cabinet ministers in line with the Global Magnitsky Act and new steel and aluminum tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act6—has cast another cloud over the Turkish economy and further underlined the necessity of patching up relations with the Europeans. In light of this situation, CAP thought it useful to offer insights stemming from its recent nationwide polling of Turks, shedding light on public attitudes toward the European Union and the political dynamics shaping the Turkish government’s approach.7 The nationwide survey was conducted by Metropoll from May 24 to June 4, 2018, and is based on 2,534 face-to-face interviews in 28 provinces. The overall results on each question have a margin of error of 1.95 percent. Like all public opinion surveys, the material presented here is only a snapshot. Moreover, it is a snapshot taken prior to the June 24 elections and further economic deterioration, both of which could somewhat alter the results were the questions asked today. Nevertheless, taken together with other data, these results underscore trends that persist to this day and are likely to continue for some time.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Public Opinion, European Union, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

133. The 2016 Failed Coup in Turkey: What Is the Impact on Turkish-African Relations?

Author:
Benjamin Augé
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The July 2016 failed coup against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government not only resulted in a dramatic upheaval in Turkey, it also had a significant impact on the structure of its international relations and its networks of influence abroad. The way this coup affected the political actors who shaped Turkish policy in Africa highlights the extent to which Fethullah Gülen’s movement – accused by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of having organised the coup- shaped those relations up to 2016. Today, Turkish diplomacy in Africa is undergoing a process of reconstruction, as it dismantles functional networks, and supports the new actors championed by Ankara. The destruction of what has been patiently established for 20 years and the creation of new channels of influence is a challenging task for Turkish diplomats and politicians who multiply their visits to Africa. In some countries, Turkish diplomacy sometimes faces difficulties in removing the Gülenist networks, as some are closely linked to high-ranking local leaders.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Fethullah Gülen
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, and Middle East

134. Maintaining momentum in enlargement

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
If it wants to convince reluctant member states of the continued benefits of enlargement, the EU needs to offer greater clarity and ensure candidate countries fulfil their commitments. The European Commission presented its latest communication on the EU’s enlargement policy on 17 April, together with the country reports assessing each candidate country’s record in the reforms required for EU accession. Three broad messages emerge.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, European Commission, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Balkans, Macedonia, and Albania

135. Emerging economies need safeguards to tackle currency crisis

Author:
Gao Haihong
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
The recent appreciation of the US dollar and the uneven pace of monetary policy normalization in many countries have become a headwind for emerging economies. This month, the Turkish lira has sharply depreciated against the US dollar, followed by a jump in Turkish bond yield for fear of high inflation. Earlier this year, after failing to stabilize its currency, Argentina sought the International Monetary Fund's support to stabilize the peso. The IMF agreed to give a $50 billion standby line of credit but on conditions that required necessary domestic fiscal and structural adjustment. These developments reaffirmed the eminent risks facing the emerging economies. A strong dollar and tightened monetary policy in the US are prompting capital flight from countries that have high domestic public debt, huge external liability, and a weak current account balance and relatively open capital account. For example, Turkey’s total external debt to GDP was at 53.5% and its current account deficit was 7.1% to GDP.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
China, Turkey, Asia, Argentina, and United States of America

136. More than infrastructures: Policy Brief water challenges in Iraq

Author:
Tobias von Lossow
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
With the liberation of Mosul from so-called Islamic State (IS) in November 2017, Iraq entered – once again – a post-conflict period. In his Policy Brief Tobias von Lossow analyses how shrinking water quantities and acutely declining water quality pose tremendous challenges in the process of rebuilding the country: Dam building in Turkey and Iran has contributed to a remarkably reduced water inflow of the Euphrates and Tigris; Iraqi water installations had been in very poor condition before IS used water as a weapon and further damaged infrastructure; Tigris River’s waterflow upstream of Baghdad requires careful coordination between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and central government; extremely salinised water resources and environmental degradation in the Marshes risk the extinction of agricultural activities and livelihoods in that area. To address these challenges, technical measures will be important, and necessary – for instance, investment in water infrastructure. But that will not be nearly enough, as the water issue has the potential to accelerate re-emerging social divisions and political fragmentation and thus undermine Iraq’s stability and security. The political implications of water policies must be carefully taken into account in Iraq’s postconflict process and should complement technical efforts in this crucial sector. The basin-wide protection of the supply infrastructure could serve as a technical as well as a political entry point for water cooperation in the region.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Infrastructure, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Middle East

137. Toward gender equity and women’s empowerment

Author:
Jean-Philippe Platteau
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
There are three main channels of women’s empowerment: legal or policy reforms, outside economic opportunities, and collective action. Legal (or policy) reforms are generally based on statutory laws that enact rules to be followed or prohibit certain practices. External economic opportunities for women represent alternative activities and places of working and living. Collective action brings women together to advance their collective interests.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Women, Discrimination, Equality, and Empowerment
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Africa, China, Europe, Turkey, India, Asia, and Senegal

138. Spotlight on Africa | Turkey–Africa Relations

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
On the 11th and 12th of February 2018, the “2nd Turkey–Africa Ministerial Review Conference” transpired in Istanbul. The Conference was held under the tutelage of the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. In participation was the Deputy Chairperson of the African Union (AU) Commission, H. E. Thomas Qwesi Quartey together with several foreign affairs ministers of African countries as well as AU representatives. Considering that a Turkey–Africa Summit is scheduled to be held in 2019 in Turkey, this TurkeyAfrica Ministerial Review Conference was held to evaluate the progress of Turkey’s Africa partnership so far in conjunction with steps that could be taken to even solidify this special relationship.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Education, Health, International Affairs, Bilateral Relations, and Conference
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, and Middle East

139. The Internationalisation of the Khashoggi Case: Prospects and Possibilities

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
So far, Turkey has been successful in its pursuit of internationalising the Khashoggi case and playing its cards strategically to keep the attention of international media and appeal to the morality of peoples and governments while also avoiding a direct clash with Saudi Arabia
Topic:
International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey

140. The Internationalisation of the Khashoggi Case: Prospects and Possibilities

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
So far, Turkey has been successful in its pursuit of internationalising the Khashoggi case and playing its cards strategically to keep the attention of international media and appeal to the morality of peoples and governments while also avoiding a direct clash with Saudi Arabia.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey

141. Refugees in Turkey struggle as border walls grow higher

Author:
Ida Vammen and Hans Lucht
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Since the EU and Turkey sealed a migration deal in 2016, millions of refugees have been living on the fringes in Turkey. Without long-term solutions, they will continue to risk their lives by embarking on new, dangerous routes to Europe.
Topic:
International Affairs and Refugee Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

142. Normalisation in Ankara-Baghdad Relations: A New Era?

Author:
Athanasios Manis
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:
The Iraqi and Turkish leadership have restored direct contact, thus providing an opportunity for dialogue. However, the extent to which this can lead to a sustainable normalisation process and furthermore to a deepening of their relationship is highly questionable. This policy brief argues that the main problem lies with the fact that a win-win scenario of overlapping or complementary interests does not seem to be driving the leaderships’ actions. Instead, it is ad hoc developments external to their bilateral relationship that have a positive effect for the time being, such as the rapprochement between Russia and Turkey, and subsequently a concerted attempt between Russia, Turkey and Iran to stabilise the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

143. We Are Here We Are Half The City We Live In

Author:
Esra Kaya Erdoğan
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This policy brief is published in the framework of “Women’s Participation for Sustainable City” project under the umbrella project “Supporting Sustainable Cities” of TESEV funded by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Liberty. No matter which measure of residential settlement one takes, women constitute around half the population everywhere in Turkey. Especially with regards urban areas with a smaller spatial scale, there is almost unanimous agreement that space-oriented policies concern women directly. It is important to keep these circumstances in mind in order to strengthen the political presence of women at the local level, and to pursue local policies with a woman-centered approach.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Governance, Women, Inequality, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

144. Equality Units As A Tool For Women’s Participation At The Local Level

Author:
Zelal Yalçın
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This policy brief is published in the framework of “Women’s Participation for Sustainable City” project under the umbrella project “Supporting Sustainable Cities” of TESEV funded by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Liberty.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Governance, Women, Inequality, and Urban
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

145. The Significance of the ‘YES’ Vote to the Constitutional Amendments in Turkey and Its Repercussions

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey has officially announced that the Yes camp has won the constitutional amendments by just over 51 per cent, in contrast to the camp rejecting the amendments which received just over 48 per cent, although these results are not yet final. Surprisingly, an overwhelming majority of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), though its leadership and the majority of its parliamentary bloc supported the amendments, voted ‘no’. The five major cities – Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Adana and Antalya – all voted ‘no’. The Kurdish vote clearly played a very important role in the Yes supporters’ victory. In other words, those who said ‘yes’ to the changes in cities with a significant Kurdish population exceeded the total votes of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the MHP in the recent parliamentary elections. In the external sphere, the referendum’s outcome is not expected to have a direct impact on heated regional issues, particularly in Syria, as well as most regional issues.
Topic:
Democratization and International Security
Political Geography:
Turkey

146. Constitutional amendments in Turkey: Predictions and implications

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Justice and Development Party (AKP) could not possibly have received approval for the proposed constitutional amendments in parliament and needed the Nationalist Movement Party’s support in order to carry out a referendum. A difficult election campaign for the amendments awaits the two opposing parties; however, there is no way to be certain before the announcement of the referendum results. Nevertheless, the most important issue relates to the long-term consequences for the AKP, particularly in terms of its Kurdish base. In terms of ethnicities, the AKP is considered the party of Turks, Kurds, Arabs, Circassians and all other Turkish ethnic groups, while the Nationalist Movement Party has traditionally been committed to the most severe position against the Kurdish Nationalist Movement, including its armed and unarmed wings.
Topic:
Democratization and Constitution
Political Geography:
Turkey

147. The European Union and Turkey in 2017: Move On or Apart?

Author:
Michael Werz
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
Turkey’s efforts to negotiate for full membership in the European Union have now dragged on for more than a decade. Instead of bringing Turkey and the EU closer together, today the two are more estranged than ever before—and rapidly moving in opposite directions. While many of the relevant European countries have—albeit with difficulties—managed to stave off a wave of populist nationalism for the time being and are on a solid or at least stable growth path, the economic and political environment in Turkey continues to deteriorate. With mounting private debt, often denominated in foreign currencies, Turkey is desperately dependent on foreign direct investment—two-thirds of which comes from EU member states—and a renegotiation of the customs union.1 Even more concerning has been the profound political polarization, ethnic tensions, and sectarianism that have come to dominate public life in Turkey. The ruling party has overseen an enormous centralization of power, jailing opposition parliamentarians, reassigning thousands of judges and prosecutors, and bringing relentless political pressure to bear on Turkish civil society organizations. At last count, 15 of Turkey’s 191 universities have been closed by government decree, more than 130 journalists have been jailed, 178 media outlets have been shut down or put under government control, and 5,000 university professors from 112 universities have been dismissed.2 At the same time, a low-intensity civil war continues between the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Turkish state in Eastern Anatolia, with dozens of casualties on both sides every week.3 Cumulatively, these developments have brought the relationship between the EU and Turkey to a decision point—it is time for the EU to revisit past strategies, readjust, and devise a path forward that encompasses both elements of a hard line approach when it comes to human rights and democracy within Turkey and an even stronger emphasis on continued engagement. At times, these strategies will exclude each other, but given the current state of affairs, there is no alternative. All elements of the complex relationship are at play and should be considered assets in a redefined EU strategy, one that will increasingly have to shift from political pressures to economic quid pro quo to generate the necessary leverage. A stronger approach is not only needed to save Turkey from further deterioration; these developments also have a direct impact on Europe, given Turkey’s close ties with the continent and with large emigrant communities, especially in Germany, the Netherlands, and France. While there is consensus that the current turmoil within the European Union and in Turkey requires decisive action, EU policymakers still disagree about the best path forward. Traditional tools of policy engagement—the membership process, high-level consultations, and increased economic cooperation—more often have seemed to exacerbate problems in recent years than resolve them, and other options are lacking. Each one of these tools has become less effective the more Turkey has gravitated into a state of centralized authoritarianism. Given this current situation, a more systematic and strategic engagement with Turkish civil society is one of the few potentially productive avenues open to EU policymakers who seek to support Turkish democracy and maneuver it toward more enlightened EU-Turkish relations.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

148. Turkey’s Parliament

Author:
Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
The combination of post-coup emergency rule and the phasing in of the new presidential system has reinforced President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s role as the virtually unassailable ruler of Turkey. Emergency rule has now been extended five times since the attempted coup in July 2016, with no end in sight. But even without emergency rule, the new presidential system affirmed in the April 16 referendum promises the hollowing out of institutions that once, for better or worse, were fairly autonomous. The judiciary is now little more than an arm of the Justice and Development Party, better known as AKP, government; its key positions are appointed by Erdoğan—who is AKP leader as well as president of the nation—and by the AKP-dominated Parliament. The military, too, is now mostly under the thumb of the government—unlike the judiciary, appropriately so, if not politicized. Following the next election, the prime ministry will be abolished. The president will stand alone atop the executive branch, his power of appointment unreviewable. The reach of the executive branch itself will be significantly broadened, including increased authority even over civil society.1 Many observers expect that Erdoğan’s position will remain unchallenged and that the AKP will hold onto power for many years to come. But AKP dominance of Turkish governance actually could be limited or removed entirely in elections that must be held by November 3, 2019—assuming those elections are conducted fairly.2 The winning presidential candidate must win with a majority of votes cast, at least by the second round. This requirement is enshrined in the constitution; unlike the rules on parliamentary elections, it is not changeable without a constitutional amendment. And, although the polarizing Erdoğan is far ahead of other potential candidates in popularity thus far,3 it is by no means clear that he would win a majority of votes in a fairly conducted, head-to-head second round.4 As for Parliament, the AKP has won a sizable majority of seats in 4 of the 5 elections it has contested since its founding—winning a clear plurality of seats in the other election. The AKP has also captured more than 49 percent of the popular vote in 2 of the last 3 elections.5 Yet, the next election will be Turkey’s first in which voters cast separate, simultaneous votes for president and Parliament. It is difficult to predict how that may affect voter preferences. Significantly, the result of the parliamentary vote could still affect how Turkey is governed. As suffocating as presidential power is likely to be under the new system, there may nevertheless be some breathing room for a meaningful Parliament, and some measure of parliamentary checks and balances on the presidency, depending on the preferences of the Turkish voter. The following briefly details the duties and responsibilities of Parliament under the new system.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Leadership, Legislation, Parliamentarism, and Power
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

149. The Significance of Erdoğan's Visit to East Africa

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
On the 22nd of January, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan embarked on another tour of three East African countries, Tanzania, Mozambique and Madagascar. These visits bring his total trips to 10 in Sub Saharan Africa, the most by any Turkish president. Earlier in 2016, he visited Ghana, Guinea, Cote d’ivoire, Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda and Somalia. These trips to a much larger extent signify the increasing policy attention Turkey is giving Africa.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, Middle East, Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, and East Africa

150. Turkey-Africa Relations: Spotlight on Somalia

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
On 30 September, 2017, the Turkish government opened its largest military base abroad in the Somalian capital of Mogadishu. The ceremony was attended by the Turkish Military Chief of Staff, Hulusi Akar. This policy update gives an overview of the significance of the military base and Turkey’s continuous engagements in Africa.
Topic:
Government, Humanitarian Aid, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, and Somalia