In addition to the direct losses – both human lives and damage to buildings and infrastructure – domestically, the earthquake may have implications for the coming presidential and parliamentary elections. In terms of foreign policy, it triggered a quasi-coup in Turkey’s regional and international relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure, Elections, and Earthquake
If Erdogan and the AKP lose the election, the old class will return to power in a spirit of vengeance, armed with the legal and coercive tools of the state, which even Kilicdaroglu and his allies may be unable to restrain. If the People’s Alliance is victorious, it will have five full years to groom capable heirs who can preserve the gains made by the conservative Turkish majority in the past two decades and faithfully follow in the AKP’s footsteps.
Topic:
Elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Parliament
It is clear that identity politics still carry much weight in Turkey, that the conservative voting bloc remains the largest, and that the majority of this bloc continues to believe in Erdogan and his ability to lead the country.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Turkey-EU relations are affected by Russia’s war on Ukraine and its consequences for the EU’s place in the world.
Another major factor is Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections held in May, which are defining the prospects for the country’s democratic future and its foreign policy.
The second round of the presidential election took place on 28 May. The re-election of President Erdoğan indicates that the unilateral foreign policy and strained relationship with the West is likely to continue, although there is a chance of a short-term burst of cooperation due to Turkey’s economic troubles.
There are increasingly divergent views about Turkey in the West, and the EU’s future relationship with Turkey needs to accommodate these different conceptualizations of the country as a state actor.
The EU needs to be flexible in the coming months and to find ways to engage with Turkey in a more fruitful manner, irrespective of the election results.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The female vote is one of the decisive factors in the 14 May elections.
The government coalition now includes parties with highly problematic views on women and women’s rights.
Housewives comprise the AKP’s female stronghold, but the tide is changing.
Women in Turkey are unhappy, anxious and pessimistic.
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Half of the 64.1 million voters will be young people born after 1997.
Young generations are de facto secularized and want change.
Youth support for the AKP is dwindling steadily, while its support of the continue to rise.
Young people in Turkey are navigating hybrid new identities.
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The traditional “Kemalist vs. Islamist” divide is being replaced by authoritarianism vs. democratization.
The antagonism between authoritarian statism and democratization will decide the future of the country.
The current Opposition reflects the profound social need for change and democratization.
AKP and MHP voters have far more hard-line nationalist and less democratic attitudes than supporters of the opposition parties.
Topic:
Democratization, Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
“Erdoğanism” has emerged as the dominant trend in Turkey’s political evolution.
Intellectuals as men of state predominate among Erdoğan’s high-ranking civil servants.
The shaping and management of narratives are the key factors behind Erdoğan’s success.
The new Cabinet will guide Turkey towards the fulfillment of the “Century of Türkiye” through a combination of soft and hard power.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
On May 14, Turkey’s citizens will cast their ballots for president and parliament, and polls suggest the longtime incumbent could actually lose this time. President Erdogan’s challenger, Republican People’s Party head Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has assembled an ideologically diverse coalition united in its determination to oust the ruling bloc. Guiding the opposition, known popularly as the “Table of Six,” is a message focused on restoring competence amid sky-high inflation and a faltering response to the devastating February earthquakes. But Erdogan’s challengers still face headwinds created in part by his near-complete control of the media.
In this Policy Note compilation, Turkey expert Soner Cagaptay and his fellow contributors concur that Erdogan will use polarizing tactics to keep power, whatever the results of the May 14 balloting or a possible May 28 presidential runoff. They also assess how various wild card developments—including the entry of spoiler candidate Muharrem Ince and meddling from Russia—could aid the Turkish leader in unforeseen ways.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Democracy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Strategic Competition, and AKP