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51. Reading Russia Right

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After the fall of Communism, Russia reverted to czarism. But more importantly, Russia embraced capitalism. Although not democratic, Russia is largely free. Property rights are more deeply anchored than they were five years ago, and the once-collectivist society is going private. Indeed, private consumption is the main driver of economic growth. Russia's future now depends heavily on how fast a middle class—a self-identified group with personal stakes in having a law-based government accountable to tax payers—can be created. The West needs to take the long view, stay engaged, and maximize contacts, especially with younger Russians.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

52. India's energy needs

Author:
Nick Hordern
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
India's exploding demand for energy is confronting New Delhi with two important dilemmas, one internal and one external. India's internal dilemma is that to satisfy its energy needs, India must not only expand but also renovate its energy sector, a huge task. Moreover, New Delhi must balance accelerating the necessary reform of this sector with the need to avoid alienating important domestic constituencies. The external dilemma derives from the fact that India will only be able to meet part of its increased energy demand from its own domestic resources, and therefore will be increasingly forced to rely on energy imports. India is trying to secure its energy supplies in a hostile geo-political climate, since New Delhi's parlous relations with its neighbours make energy cooperation difficult. The resultant fears regarding the vulnerability of India's external sources of energy chime with a core principle of New Delhi's political culture, swadeshi (self-sufficiency), whose influence, while waning, retains its potency. Concerns regarding energy security are particularly prevalent in the case of oil, where India's dependence on imports is becoming acute. The proximity of the Persian Gulf to India's industrialised northwest makes it the main source of growing oil imports. But this in turn increases India's reliance on the unstable Gulf. In order to reduce this risk New Delhi will seek out oil from new energy provinces in the Atlantic Basin, Sudan, Russia and South East Asia. It will also turn to a new energy source - gas - and more imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will be one result. India's energy needs have implications for Australia. India's growing demand for energy will see coal continue to dominate the energy mix, and as a result India's demand for imported coking coal, including from Australia, is also set to grow. At the same time, India's quest for diversity of supply means that at least some of India's increased LNG imports are likely to be Australian.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Sudan, India, Asia, New Delhi, Australia, and Southeast Asia

53. Competition Law and Policy in the Russian Federation

Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
When the Russian Federation began its transition toward a market based economy, promoting competition and regulating anticompetitive behavior - issues never previously needing to be addressed - arose as new and unfamiliar subjects for state policymaking and law enforcement activities. In order to address these issues, the Russian Federation created a competition authority and basic law in 1991, quite early in its transition period. Support for competition was expressed in the 1993 Constitution, as well as in other fundamental legislation. As part of a larger study of regulatory reform, the OECD in 2003 undertook a detailed assessment of Russia fs decade of experience with competition law and policy. The Report concludes that despite early legislation on the issue and strong expressions of support for competition in the laws, the creation and protection of competition on domestic markets has not been a policy priority. Emphasis on rapid privatization limited the scope of pre-privatization restructuring to promote competition and the competition authority has been expected to serve as a general regulator of behavior in markets, assigned to fill legislative gaps and to enforce against a variety of undesirable practices in markets. Overly broad responsibilities and a lack of credible sanctions have significantly limited the impact of the competition laws.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia

54. Economic Survey of the Russian Federation, 2004

Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The major economic challenge facing Russia is the achievement of long-term, sustainable growth that would allow for a relatively rapid convergence between living standards in Russia and the OECD economies. The nature of this challenge is largely determined by Russia\'s economic structure. At present, Russia\'s economy is highly dependent on the export of a limited range of natural resources, chiefly hydrocarbons and metals. This presents policymakers with a number of specific problems. In particular, resource dependence makes the Russian economy especially vulnerable to external shocks. It is therefore difficult to overstate the importance of prudent macroeconomic policies, especially as the budget relies heavily on resource taxes and is thus influenced by volatile energy prices. Hence, exemplary fiscal discipline, in particular, is crucial to reducing Russia\'s vulnerability to commodity-price cycles. Yet while resource dependence brings with it certain macroeconomic risks, economic performance will continue to depend to a great extent on the performance of resource-exporting sectors for the foreseeable future. This makes reform of the natural gas sector an urgent priority. In the absence of substantial reform, the gas industry, which is critical to both exports and the domestic economy, could well stagnate or decline.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia

55. Strengthening Financial Sector Governance in Emerging Markets

Author:
Robert Litan, Michael Pomerleano, and V. Sundararajan
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Policymakers and analysts are still sifting through the wreckage of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the subsequent crises in Russia, Turkey, and Argentina to discern key lessons so that similar crises will not recur. Some lessons are by now well understood. Pegged exchange rates can encourage excessive borrowing and expose countries to financial collapse when foreign exchange reserves run dry. Inadequate disclosures by both private companies and public bodies can lead to similar dangers. Although many factors undoubtedly contributed to these crises, it is now widely recognized that each suffered from a failure in “governance,” and in particular a failure in governance in their financial sectors. Accordingly, the World Bank Group, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Brookings Institution devoted their fourth annual Financial Markets and Development Conference, held in New York from April 17-19, 2002, to the subject of financial sector governance in emerging markets. This conference report summarizes some of the highlights of the conference, whose full proceedings will be published as a Brookings book in the fall of 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, New York, Turkey, Asia, and Argentina

56. Chirac's Blind Date with History

Author:
Simon Serfaty, Christina V. Balis, Pierre Messerlin, and Chris Wiley
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The French elections held during the past eight weeks—first for the presidency and then for the National Assembly—were the most significant elections held in France since 1981. On the whole, their outcome is good for France, for Europe, and for the United States. They restore a political coherence that had been lacking during seven of the last nine years, when the French political system lived under the strained conditions of political cohabitation (1993–1995 and 1997–2002). Moreover, by renewing the primacy of the French presidency, these elections enable Jacques Chirac to assert his leadership during the decisive years that loom ahead for the European Union (EU), as well as for its relations with the United States within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Finally, these elections also confirm Europe's political drift to a center-right that the elections in Germany scheduled for September 23 are likely to make complete (Euro-Focus, September 15, 2002).
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and France

57. Bigger Europe, Smaller Agenda

Author:
Simon Serfaty, Christina V. Balis, George Handy, and Georgeta Pourchot
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
“More Europe in every area” may sound like an ill-chosen motto for a six-month presidency facing an already demanding and inflated agenda. It is reflective of a concern, however, not to expand the current list of priorities to new initiatives that would risk the fate of past abortive attempts. Avoiding new confrontations, while ensuring the smooth pursuit of ongoing reforms, has become Spain's principal goal during its presidency in the first half of 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

58. The Foreign Sales Corporation: Reaching the Last Act?

Author:
Gary Hufbauer
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Some trade disputes—like long Russian novels—never seem to end. The United States, Europe, and other trading nations have disputed the taxation of export earnings since the 1970s. To understand why the Foreign Sales Corporation (FSC) dispute is so hard to resolve, we must start with a historical tour.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

59. Russia's Maternal and Infant Health Crisis: Socio-Economic Implications and the Path Forward

Author:
Stephen M. Massey
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Today, fewer than one in three Russian newborns is healthy, disease rates among Russian children are surging, and shrinking access to quality family planning and prenatal care has worsened the state of women's reproductive health across Russia. The health of Russia's infants and children is especially significant given the country's shrinking population and the mounting problems of infectious disease, rural poverty, illegal narcotics, and alcohol abuse – all contributing factors to poor birth outcomes. The long-term economic impact of unhealthy children born in the past decade is already a serious limiting factor to Russia's emergence as a strong economic partner and international actor. Many infant deaths and childhood illnesses could be prevented with expanded investments in infrastructure and education, improved access to quality care, and reform of Russia's healthcare sector – each of which is too costly for Russia to finance on its own. Untapped opportunities also exist for collaboration between Russian, European, and American civic groups, healthcare experts, scientists, and policy leaders that would have a positive impact on maternal and child health in Russia and beyond.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

60. Russia's Southern Regions: Threats and Opportunities

Author:
Robert Orttung
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Instability in Russia's southern regions poses a threat to the continuation of the country's overall political and economic reform, and to regional stability in Central Eurasia. These regions, which already possess Russia's most fragile local economics, face a variety of problems emanating from the weak and failing states to their immediate south. Most visibly, there is the threat of terrorism, an increasing flow of illegal narcotics from producers in Afghanistan, an influx of contraband goods that wipe out Russian jobs, and illegal immigration. With few resources and extensive corruption among key officials, Russia's southern regions are poorly equipped to deal with these problems. Developing mutually beneficial trade links between Russia's southern regions and its neighbors in Central Asia, China, and Mongolia can mitigate instability and economic stagnation in this region, help to rebuild regional economies, generate income, and better enable governments to provide security and basic human services to their people. The West can support these developments as well as help combat organized crime, target corruption, and improve border security.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Mongolia, and Asia

61. Measuring the Non-Observed Economy

Author:
Derek Blades and David Roberts
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Strictly speaking, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is only a measure of economic activity, but in practice it is often used to compare the relative wellbeing of countries as well as their overall economic performance. To measure the latter, users normally look at the rates of growth of GDP, while for comparing relative wellbeing the levels of GDP percapita are used. The absolute level of GDP is also used for calculating policy-relevant indicators such as the ratio of government deficit to GDP, the ratio of R expenditure to GDP and the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to GDP.
Topic:
Economics and International Organization
Political Geography:
Russia

62. Turkey And The Bush Administration: The Question Marks

Author:
Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Turkey's economic crisis is naturally the leading issue in bilateral U.S.-Turkish relations, and it is almost certainly topping the agenda of today's meetings of Foreign Minister Ismail Cem with Vice President Richard Cheney and other senior officials. Of course, these meetings pose the difficult question of how much Washington should do, if anything, to bail out its strategically vital ally. But this is only one of several uncertainties characterizing U.S.-Turkish relations in the early days of the Bush administration. Because so much of Turkey's importance to the United States derives from its critical strategic location, bilateral relations are greatly affected by U.S. policies toward other states in Turkey's region. Of most concern to Turkey will be the evolution of Bush administration policy toward Iraq, Iran, and Russia, and also toward Europe's nascent bid to develop an autonomous security capacity.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East

63. Currency Boards or Dollarization — Solutions or Traps

Author:
John Chown
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Currency boards have been suggested for Russia, and adopted elsewhere in eastern Europe. Brazil's fixed rate has had to be abandoned, but Argentina is considering replacing its currency board with dollarization, and suggesting this solution for the rest of Latin America. Fixed exchange-rate regimes (and the crawling peg in Russia) have collapsed in Southeast Asia but Hong Kong, which had a formal currency board, has (so far) survived.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America

64. Economic Survey of the Russian Federation, 2000

Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The economic crisis of 1998 has victimised a number of important areas of institutional development and increased social distress among much of the population. A responsible fiscal and monetary response to the crisis, bolstered by a strengthened current account, has helped to stabilise inflation and the exchange rate, although the low level of reserves, the demands of foreign debt service, and threats to the independence of the Central Bank speak for the continued fragility of the achieved level of stability. A restructuring of foreign debt is critical for consolidating trends in the fiscal sphere. While the quick onset of a recovery in GDP in the wake of the weaker rouble is encouraging, delays in structural reforms and low administered input prices raise concern about the quality and sustainability of this growth. The restructuring and regulation of the commercial banking sector continues to pose major challenges to the Central Bank and the Russian government. Throughout a decade of transition, problems in demonetisation and fiscal federalist relations, the particular focus of this Survey, have been important underlying structural obstacles to economic reform. Although some institutional reforms have provided a foundation for a market economy, delays in addressing these and other fundamental problems have impeded efficiency and increased the comparative vulnerability of the Russian economy to external shocks. The future stability and growth of the Russian economy will require the continuation of responsible macroeconomic policies, but depends first and foremost on progress in structural reform, including tax reform, effective institutions of bankruptcy, competition, more decisive and comprehensive measures to combat the process of demonetisation, defend the rule of law, and realise fundamental reform in fiscal federalist relations.
Topic:
Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia

65. Russia—Debt Rollover

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
On July 28, the IMF's Board of Directors announced their approval of a 4.5 billion dollar loan to Russia. Rather than representing a breakthrough deal, the agreement is merely the latest chapter in the cycle of non–compliance and renegotiation that has characterised the Fund's relationship with Moscow. With presidential and parliamentary polls scheduled during the next twelve months, electoral pressures will almost certainly prevent the latest macroeconomic programme being implemented. Moreover, unless the root cause of Russia's economic problems—its dire GDP growth rate—is rectified, a further round of comprehensive renegotiations will be required.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Moscow

66. The Case for a Russian Currency Board System

Author:
Steve H. Hanke
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The devaluation of the Russian ruble this year was predictable, especially considering Russia's poor monetary history. State-manipulated money has been a Russian hallmark since the time of Peter the Great and shows that the country's money problems are endemic and do not depend on who controls the central bank. Czarist, Soviet, and post-Soviet governments have used the central bank printing press to finance deficit spending, resulting in high inflation, confiscation of savings, capital controls, or a combination of the three.
Topic:
Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union