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82. A Revealing Election: Implications of re-electing Berri as Lebanon's parliament speaker for 7th term
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Lebanon’s 128-strong parliament met on May 31, 2022 to elect a speaker, a deputy speaker, two secretaries and three commissioners. The new legislature re-elected Nabih Berri, the head of the Amal Movement for a 7th term in a row, as speaker and MP Elias Bou Saab, who represents the Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc, as deputy speaker.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Presidential Elections, Parliament, and Nabih Berri
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
83. Holding the Hard-line: What is behind Iran’s seizure of Greek ships in Arabian Gulf?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On May 27, Iran seized two Greek tankers, named “Prudent Warrior” and “Delta Poseidon”, in the Arabian Gulf. Forces from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) descended on the tankers and ordered them to sail to Bandar Abbas port. Onboard the tankers were 49 crew members. Greece described the operation as ‘piracy’. The seizure seems to be a reprisal for Greece’s role earlier in the month assisting the US impounding a Russian-flagged tanker transporting Iranian oil and carrying 19 crew.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Maritime, and Shipping
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Greece
84. The Hurriyet Leaks: Ankara ceasing opportunity for rapprochement with Damascus
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- In a recent report published by Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet, unnamed sources have said Ankara is mulling over opportunities to facilitate a dialogue with the Syrian government. Sources at the Syrian Foreign Ministry have strongly denied such reports however, labelling them as mere political red herring, as Turkey’s presidential elections loom on the horizon.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Refugees, Syrian War, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
85. The 2022 Israeli elections: Change, but no change
- Author:
- Erwin van Veen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- On 1 November 2022, Israelis will cast their votes to elect a new parliament for the 25th time since 1948. Between 1949 and 2019 (70 years), Israelis went to the polls 20 times. Each parliamentary assembly (Knesset) averaged 3.5 years. But between 2019 and 2022, Israelis voted four times. Each parliamentary assembly averaged only nine months. This brief examines some of the causes of Israel’s political turmoil and assesses whether it matters for two issues of European concern: Israel’s status as ‘democratic’ ally and the occupation of Palestine. Despite their evident shortcomings with regard to Israeli Arabs and Palestinians, we do not expect the Israeli elections of November 2022 to downgrade the country’s allied status across European capitals. Neither do we anticipate the Israeli elections to moderate the country’s policy of annexation in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Our analysis suggests instead that future Israeli governments will maintain majoritarian Jewish rule and expects it to be propelled by a more unapologetic and repressive ethno-nationalism. This will lead Israel further down the path of exclusionary governance and large-scale human rights violations that risks backfiring in the long term. It will also further erode the moral credibility of the European Union, including the Netherlands, in the areas of human rights and accountability.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Elections, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
86. The 2023 Turkish elections: An unmarked road
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As the date of elections approaches, the political and economic landscape will undoubtedly come into clearer focus. But at this point, amid so many uncertainties, it is still too early to predict electoral outcomes with any confidence.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Elections, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
87. Petroleum Industry Diversification in the Middle East and Its Policy Implications for Korea in the Era of Energy Transition
- Author:
- Kwon Hyung Lee, Sung Hyun Son, Yun Hee Jang, Kwang Ho Ryou, and Dawoon Lee
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- The GCC oil exporters including Saudi Arabia and the UAE are under strong pressure to prepare for decreasing global oil demand in the era of energy transition and carbon neutrality. To overcome these challenges, they need to diversify their industrial structure and develop low carbon technologies such as green hydrogen and CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage). This research is aimed to examine various mid-to-long term plans, industrial policies, and business cooperation cases to promote diversification in the Middle Eastern petroleum industry, suggesting policy proposals for cooperation between Korea and the Middle East and business opportunities in the region.
- Topic:
- Oil, Business, Diversification, Industry, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Asia, and South Korea
88. Hackers, Hoodies, and Helmets: Technology and the changing face of Russian private military contractors
- Author:
- Emma Schroeder, Gavin Wilde, Justin Sherman, and Trey Herr
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The first time Russia invaded Ukraine in the twenty-first century, the Wagner Group was born. The now widely profiled private military company (PMC) played an important role in exercising Russian national power over the Crimea and portions of the Donbas—while giving Moscow a semblance of plausible deniability. In the near decade since, the Russian PMC sector has grown considerably, and is active in more than a dozen countries around the world. PMCs are paramilitary organizations established and run as private companies—though they often operate in contract with one or more states. They are profit-motivated, expeditionary groups that make a business of the conduct of war.1 PMCs are in no way a uniquely Russian phenomenon, yet the expanding footprint of Russian PMCs and their links to state interests call for a particularly Russian-focused analysis of the industry. The growth of these firms and their direct links to the Kremlin’s oligarch network as well as Moscow’s foreign media, industrial, and cyber activities present a challenge to the United States and its allies as they seek to counter Russian malicious activities abroad. As signals intelligence and offensive cyber capabilities, drones and counter-drone systems, and encrypted communications become more accessible, these technologies will prove ever more decisive to both battlefield outcomes and statecraft. More exhaustive research on these issues is necessary. The ongoing conflict resulting from Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine in this young century seems likely to shape the conduct of Russian foreign policy and security behavior for years to come—and these firms will play a part. The activities of these PMCs include high-intensity combat operations, as evidenced in Syria in 2018 and Ukraine in 2022, and a mix of population control, escort and close protection, and local direct-action activities, as seen in Libya, Mali, and elsewhere.2 Given the sourcing and dependence of Russian PMCs on Russian military service personnel and no small influence of Russian doctrine, the questions to reasonably ask include: How do changes in the Russian conduct of war and adoption of new technologies influence these PMCs? Moreover, how might these technological changes influence the role these PMCs play in Russian strategic goals and activity abroad?
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Wagner Group, Russia-Ukraine War, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, and Africa
89. Israel-NATO Relations: Developing a New Strategic Concept
- Author:
- Rina Bassist
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Israel’s relations with the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) were never a focal point of its foreign and security policy. In fact, they have weakened since their peak in the 1990s. However, recent geopolitical shifts have highlighted the importance of these relations for Israel, providing a potential foundation for reshaping them. NATO has been undergoing profound reform in recent years, expanding its agenda to deal with additional issues of human security, such as the climate and energy crises, and stressing innovation. The war in Ukraine not only injected renewed vigor and political power into the alliance, it also hastened the processes of organizational renewal and emphasized the alliance’s geographical focus northward and eastward. Israel, too, has undergone change, its security enhanced by normalization agreements with Arab states, a strong Hellenic alliance with Greece and Cyprus, and warming relations with Turkey. Its technological capabilities and its business model orientation could turn its posture vis-à-vis NATO from a consumer of security to a supplier. NATO and Israel now have an opportunity to reshape, deepen and improve their relationship.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
90. Partnership Priorities with the EU – What (If Anything) Is Israel Missing?
- Author:
- Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Among European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) countries, Israel has enjoyed the most advanced relations with the European Union (EU). This comes as no surprise, as it is a viable liberal democratic country with a free and vibrant economy leading in innovation and many other fields. Yet, since 2016, Southern and Eastern neighbourhood countries signed Partnership Priorities agreements with the EU, while Israel didn’t. This paper describes what Partnership Priorities are, why Israel hasn’t signed a Partnership Priorities agreement so far, and asks what Israel is missing out on by lacking an established set of Partnership Priorities with the EU.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
91. The Significance of Convening the European Union – Israel Association Council
- Author:
- Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- On July 18, 2022, the Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union (EU) decided to move ahead with convening the EU-Israel Association Council (AC) after a decade-long hiatus. What does this mean? What opportunities does it offer, and what were the costs of not convening it so far? This paper explains what the AC is, the reasons for its suspension and for the decision to re-convene it. Assuming it will re-convene, the paper recommends future measures between Israel and the EU.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
92. Implications of Israel and Turkey’s diplomatic thaw on Israel’s Mediterranean Policy
- Author:
- Roee Kibrik
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This document focuses on the challenges and opportunities for Israel’s policy in the Mediterranean Basin as a result of its warming relations with Turkey. It covers the main points raised at the 11th meeting of the Research and Policy Group on Israel in the Mediterranean Basin conducted on May 24, 2022, at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, Hebrew University’s Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The document does not necessarily reflect agreement among all discussion participants. The warming relations between Israel and Turkey
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Mediterranean
93. One step forward, one step back: International discourse on advancing Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking
- Author:
- Lior Lehrs
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The Israeli-Palestinian peace process has been locked in a stalemate since the 2014 collapse of the US mediation initiative led by then-Secretary of State John Kerry. The relations between the parties have been all but severed and characterized by a series of crises and tensions that peaked over Israel’s 2020 West Bank annexation plan. While the Israeli-Arab normalization agreements removed the annexation idea from the agenda, this did not change the Israeli-Palestinian situation. Developments in recent months in the Israeli-Palestinian arena pose challenges and risks but also new opportunities and possibilities. Special attention should be paid to the impact of the May 2021 escalation, the deep crisis in the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the establishment of a new government in Israel. This paper maps the international discourse on advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace under the current conditions, and constitutes a follow-up to the paper we published in April 2021. It is based on a series of dialogues held by Mitvim Institute experts in August and September 2021 with European, American and Palestinian diplomats and experts, as well as UN officials, and also on a series of discussions among a team of Israeli experts formed by Mitvim.[1] The paper offers an analysis of the positions and perceptions of international actors regarding the effects of the latest developments on the Israeli-Palestinian arena, and their insights and conclusions about the feasible and desired measures that could be undertaken to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Affairs, Dialogue, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
94. A Shaky Foundation: The Myth of Authoritarian Stability in the Middle East
- Author:
- Jon Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- American foreign policy in the Middle East is based on a myth. For decades, policymakers have worked to prop up Middle Eastern autocracies out of the belief that they serve as the only bulwark against chaos and threats to American interests in the region. This approach gets things backward. Rather than being the solution to the region’s various problems, these actors are responsible for producing and exacerbating the greatest underlying problems in the region, and a blank check from Washington allows them to act with impunity both at home and abroad. Accordingly, U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East is in desperate need of an overhaul.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
95. The Emirati Lobby in America
- Author:
- Ben Freeman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has exerted considerable influence in its region in recent years and has also been a major factor in U.S. foreign policy. The UAE military and its proxies fought for years in Yemen and still maintain significant influence there, despite a 2020 pledge to withdraw from the devastating conflict. The UAE and other Gulf states have normalized relations with Israel under the auspices of the Abraham Accords. The UAE also continues to receive billions of dollars worth of U.S. military equipment and weapons. On the soft power side, the UAE played host to World Expo 2020, also known as the Expo 2020 Dubai, a cultural event that brought together representatives from nearly every country in the world. A small army of U.S.–based lobbyists working on behalf of the UAE has played a role in all these events, and in nearly every aspect of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Based on an exhaustive analysis of all Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) documents filed by organizations registered to work on behalf of UAE clients in 2020 and 2021, this brief offers a number of key findings regarding legal lobbying activities of the UAE in the United States.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Soft Power, and Lobbying
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
96. Targeting Financial Entities outside Iran to Counter Tehran’s Economic Strategy
- Author:
- Yair Albeck
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Tehran is stringing out the nuclear negotiations endlessly with the expectation that President Joe Biden will not admit that the talks have failed. After such an admission, the public would likely pressure the administration to stop offering Iran stealth economic relief through the lax enforcement of sanctions. Rigorous enforcement would, the White House fears, remove Iranian oil from the market and contribute to the global energy crisis that Russia’s war against Ukraine sparked. Meanwhile, Iran is benefitting doubly—strategically and economically—from the war, selling missiles and drones to Russia and oil to China. Given this advantageous situation, Tehran wants negotiations to continue. Can the United States escape from this conundrum? In fact, it can impose severe economic costs on Tehran without removing oil from the market.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Democracy, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
97. Addressing the Crushing Weight of Yemen’s Public Debt
- Author:
- Sana'a Center Economic Unit
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- For decades prior to the ongoing conflict, Yemen had been vulnerable to recurring budget deficits due to a lack of meaningful fiscal reform, high recurrent expenditures – mainly public sector salaries and fuel subsidies – and an overdependence on oil revenues. While foreign debt obligations remained low, the debt market was poorly diversified, with treasury bill holders narrowly concentrated within the banking sector and government bonds held almost exclusively by public pension funds. The escalation of the ongoing conflict in 2015 has had a profoundly negative impact on Yemen’s debt position. Large-scale oil exports ceased, leading to a collapse in public revenues, while banks and pension funds stopped purchasing government debt instruments. Management of the public debt became bifurcated between rival central bank administrations in Aden and Sana’a, both of which suspended payments on foreign and domestic debt obligations. Unable to receive interest payments, public debt holders faced a liquidity crisis, leaving banks unable to honor customer obligations and threatening their solvency, while pension funds have struggled to support retirees. On January 25-27, 2021, senior Yemeni experts and professionals convened virtually for the 7th Development Champions Forum (DCF), as part of the Rethinking Yemen’s Economy initiative, to discuss the evolution and structure of Yemen’s public debt, the dynamics during the conflict that have led to its colossal expansion, and the macroeconomic risks it poses. This was followed a week later with a briefing for international stakeholders on February 2. These discussions formed the basis for the research presented in this paper and its recommendations for addressing Yemen’s public debt crisis. Addressing the Crushing Weight of Yemen’s Public Debt - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies https://sanaacenter.org/publications/main-publications/18247
- Topic:
- Budget, Economy, Armed Conflict, and Public Debt
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations
98. Fragmentation nation: How Europeans can help end the conflict in Yemen
- Author:
- Helen Lackner
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- For eight years, Yemen has suffered a civil war, whose conduct has been exacerbated by outside powers, principally Saudi Arabia and the UAE on one side, while Iran has supported the other. Yemen is a politically, socially, geographically, and religiously fragmented country, including within the two broad areas controlled by the internationally recognised government and the Houthis respectively. Saudi Arabia and the UAE may soon decrease their military interference in Yemen – but their exit could expose divisions in both government and Houthi areas. Yemen was poor before the conflict, but a corrupt war economy has now taken hold, strengthening an array of local power holders, while the Yemeni people slip into ever-deeper destitution. Short-term measures introduced with the support of the international community have failed to stabilise the situation. Europeans should take a longer-term approach to Yemen. They should promote the country’s cause in their diplomacy with Gulf Arab states and make a commitment to economic support, a values-based approach, and an emphasis on human rights in Yemen.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civil War, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, and United Arab Emirates
99. Post-Kemalism and the Future of Turkish Governance – Nicholas Danforth
- Author:
- Nicholas Danforth
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Disillusionment with Erdoğan and the AKP after 2013 has reshaped the study of Turkish politics and history, leading scholars to focus on new themes and new periods. Comparative approaches, political economy and a newfound interest in the Cold War have offered a more nuanced understanding of Turkish authoritarianism. Post-Kemalism remain more popular in the U.S. and Europe than in Turkey.
- Topic:
- Governance, Authoritarianism, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
100. Greco-Turkish relations at their lowest ebb
- Author:
- Alexia Kefalas
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- What really happened on 6th October in Prague? This question has been on the minds of European analysts since the dinner held in the Czech capital on the side-lines of the first summit meeting of the European Political Community. Versions vary between the international press and the 44 heads of state and government.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece