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Begin New Search Topic Politics Political Geography Middle East Content Type Policy Brief

41. The Resumption of Accession Talks: A Hesitant Improvement in Turkey-EU Negotiations

Author:
Filippo Urbinati
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
After more than three1year deadlock, 2013 was marked by the attempt by Brussels and Ankara to restart the dialogue for Turkey’s accession to European Union. Two developments were remarkable in this process: the release of the most favorable Progress Report on Turkey since 2009, and the opening of the community acquis Chapter 22 on Regional Policy and Coordination of Structural Instruments. Regarding the former development, the European Commission underlined the positive steps achieved by Turkey and the pressing need for the EU to enhance its engagement with Turkey and revitalize the accession negotiations’ framework as the main way to promote EU sponsored reforms. As far as the latter development is concerned, the relevance of the opening of a new chapter cannot be overestimated as the political stumbling blocks, which led the negotiations to stagnation, have been kept untouched and are still far from solved. This policy update is intended to give account of the main issues connected with these developments and underline the reasons for why they have to be considered important steps forward but¬ the decisive ones.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, European Union, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

42. Energy Crossroads: Shifting Dynamics in the Troubled Triangle Between Ankara, Erbil and Baghdad

Author:
Emanuela Pergolizzi
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
Iraq, Turkey, and the Kurdistan Regional Government are in tense political relations over recent energy politics and regional dynamics. While major international interests related to oil and gas resources might currently be at stake, historic mistrusts and deeper political challenges seem to stand in the way of a peaceful trilateral cooperation. While energy deals with the Kurdistan Regional Government grow apace, Ankara seems to stand both as an active gambler and a key facilitator. The domestic and regional dynamics unfolding in Turkey will likely be indicators of whether a durable peace situation can succeed over longHstanding political obstacles and historical tensions between the countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Energy Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan

43. Erdogan and the Turkish Presidency

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
There are several scenarios proposed as analysts examine Turkey’s upcoming presidential race. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) recently enjoyed a victory in local elections, and it is highly likely that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will capitalize on this victory by running for Turkey’s presidency in August. This is the first time in the Turkish republic’s history that the president will be elected by a direct vote of the of the people rather than by the parliament. This paper addresses several questions that would follow any announcement by Erdogan stating his intention to run for the presidency. First, there is the question of Gul’s fate if Erdogan will run for the presidency and whether or not some type of deal will be negotiated on the exchange of roles between the two. Second, there is a question of whether or not Erdogan will win the presidency in the first round of voting or be forced to a second round of voting in which all opposition parties will rally behind a single candidate. Finally, there is a question of what kind of president Erdogan will be if he wins and the nature of the presidency Turkey will see in the coming years.
Topic:
Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

44. Egypt’s Obstructed Horizon: Regime in Crisis and Fragmented Opposition

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Both parties to the Egyptian conflict have depended on the conflict to sustain their existence. As a result, the prospects for reconciliation between the regime and the main opposition force, the Muslim Brotherhood, are very slim. In the short-term, reconciliation appears to be entirely improbable. However, this does not mean that either camp is in a comfortable position. Despite the steadfastness of its street protests for over a year, the popular opposition movement appears to be no closer to displacing the regime than it was in the summer of 2013. For the regime, while there is undoubtedly a strong state apparatus behind Sisi, this has not enabled it to maintain stability nor to solve Egypt’s economic dilemmas and resolve the dramatic deterioration in the state’s ability to care for its people. Finally, controversy between various groups on the ground and tensions among opposition leaders suggest that the mood on the ground is inclined to move away from further escalation of the protests.
Topic:
Security, Government, Politics, Revolution, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

45. Yemen’s Houthi Movement: Limiting Military Operations Via Political Participation

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
In Yemen’s political arena, the Houthis are banking on their participation in the national dialogue to achieve various political gains while they simultaneously use military force and popular crowd mobilisation to realise objectives they are unable to achieve through their political participation. However, they would be obliged to reconsider their military actions if President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi and his supporters (both internally and externally) are able to adopt a dual political and military strategy to convince the Houthis that the collapse of the political process will cause them to lose their positions in the Yemeni state and prevent them from ever establishing an independent state.
Topic:
Civil War, Politics, Military Affairs, Houthis, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

46. The Middle East and North Africa: Change and Upheaval 2014

Author:
Christian Koch
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The breakdown of state structures and the wider regional political order has resulted in a complex tapestry of conflict throughout the Middle East that is likely to produce a continued period of volatility and violence for several years to come. This is because there are numerous dynamics at play that are competing with one another across various levels. Within these dynamics, religion as a mobilizing factor which, alongside sectarianism has emerged as a primary driving force for many of the ongoing conflicts. In addition, the deep crisis of the nation-state has released different dichotomies resulting in overlapping lines of confrontation that seem to be exploding all at once. The situation is exacerbated by the diminished leverage of global players on regional forces and regional players over national ones, thus significantly complicating the search for solutions.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and North Africa

47. Qatar's international relations under Emir Tamim

Author:
David Roberts
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Emir Tamim has become the new ruler of Qatar after the abdication of his father, Emir Hamad Bin Khalifa al-Thani. The latter followed an independent foreign policy throughout his reign and sought good relations with all states, although Qatar's taking sides in the Arab uprisings have somewhat modified this position. Evaluating Qatar's foreign policy under Emir Tamim is difficult. In his upbringing Tamim was imbued with their vision of Qatar as an internationally oriented state. It would be very surprising if he were to backtrack on this basic thrust and withdraw Qatar internationally. Emir Tamim's Qatar will therefore likely continue to seek to extend the small state's influence throughout the region wherever and whenever possible.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

48. Saudi Arabia and the expansion of Salafism

Author:
Laurent Bonnefoy
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Due to the specific history of Saudi Arabia, the export of religious ideologies has long been seen as an important tool of Saudi "soft power". Through a variety of institutions and actors, only some of which can be linked to Wahhabism or even to Islam, interactions between Saudi Arabia and the world are complex and diverse. While mechanisms aiming to export a conservative interpretation of Islam that have been labelled Salafism may be manifest, this policy brief intends to question the efficiency of such mechanisms for the dissemination of religious ideologies. In order to do so, it will first define Salafism. It will then highlight the diversity of this concept, in particular when it comes to its relations with the Saudi monarchy. Finally, it will conclude by highlighting some changes triggered by the "Arab Spring" uprisings that affect the relationship among Salafi movements in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

49. Israel's internal frontier: the enduring power of ethno-nationalism

Author:
Cathrine Thorleifsson
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the paradox of Mizrahim (Arab Jews) supporting right-wing Israeli policies through a case study of the border town of Kiryat Shemona. Based on ethnographic research, it illuminates the enduring power of ethno-nationalism and demonstrates how it affects Mizrahi lives. Mizrahim became trapped by Israeli nation-building on the geographic and socioeconomic margins of the state positioned between the dominant Ashkenazi elite and the Palestinian population. Factors such as Mizrahim's partial inclusion in the nation; tensions between Jews and Arabs, and between the secular and the religious; the decline of the welfare state; and a shared perception of threats and dangers informed everyday nationalism in the town. Mizrahim contested Ashkenazi Israeliness through ethnic and transnational identifications and practices. Simultaneously, their support for the nation-in-arms and identification as "strong"and "civilised" reinforced the dominant logic of ethno-nationalism. Mizrahi support for right-wing militarism is likely to persist as long as national unity is used as a colonial practice by the centre. The inclusion of Mizrahim as equals together with other marginalised citizens would necessarily entail an Israeli Spring.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Nationalism, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

50. Syrian Opposition: Risks of Fragmentation and Necessity of Consensus

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Syrian revolution’s landscape, with several centers of political and military power rather than one unified center, seems to be accelerating towards a breakdown. A number of factors, including the path towards Geneva II, lukewarm US-Saudi ties, wider differences between the internal and external opposition and the formation of the Syrian Islamic Front, have contributed to this impending breakdown. If the opposition is able to form an interim government despite considerable uncertainties as well as despite the necessary link with and responsibility to the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, it will provide a great opportunity to strengthen the relationship between internal opposition groups and those abroad. The most urgent challenge to the Syrian revolution today is enhancing confidence of all political and military powers in such a way that consensus is built on all levels. Anything short of that will render the revolution (militarily and politically) even more vulnerable to the changing winds around it.
Topic:
Politics, United Nations, Syrian War, Revolution, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria