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32. Implications of US Disengagement from the Middle East
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- The United States is retreating from the Middle East. The adverse implications of this policy shift are manifold, including: the acceleration of Tehran’s drive to regional hegemony, the palpable risk of regional nuclear proliferation following the JCPOA, the spread of jihadist Islam, and Russia’s growing penetration of the region. Manifest US weakness is also bound to have ripple effects far beyond the Middle East, as global players question the value of partnership with an irresolute Washington.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Security
- Political Geography:
- America and Middle East
33. Power Imbalance: Iran’s Gains, Saudi’s Challenges
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- There is no one, sweeping reason for declining oil prices, but Iran and Russia have publicly and explicitly placed the blame on Saudi’s shoulders. The reality is, however, is that the drop in oil prices is just one more point of contention between Iran and Saudi in a line of regional issues that have brought to light the reality of an Iran-Saudi showdown. Iran’s growing regional expansion, the conflict over a Syrian resolution, and the Houthis’ increasing control over Yemen are all more convincing factors which help explain why Saudi is adamantly refusing to reduce its oil production. This position paper analyses Saudi’s challenges as it attempts to counter Iran’s gains in the Arab region, particularly in light of a possible nuclear deal between Iran and the US.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Oil, Regional Cooperation, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria
34. The Middle East and North Africa: Change and Upheaval 2014
- Author:
- Christian Koch
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The breakdown of state structures and the wider regional political order has resulted in a complex tapestry of conflict throughout the Middle East that is likely to produce a continued period of volatility and violence for several years to come. This is because there are numerous dynamics at play that are competing with one another across various levels. Within these dynamics, religion as a mobilizing factor which, alongside sectarianism has emerged as a primary driving force for many of the ongoing conflicts. In addition, the deep crisis of the nation-state has released different dichotomies resulting in overlapping lines of confrontation that seem to be exploding all at once. The situation is exacerbated by the diminished leverage of global players on regional forces and regional players over national ones, thus significantly complicating the search for solutions.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and North Africa
35. The EU in the MENA region: confounded by the chaos?
- Author:
- Domhnall O'Sullivan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The first concerns the fundamental methodological logic of the policy instruments underpinning EU action in its neighbourhood. Historically, a certain duality has existed between the multilateral regionalism of grand approaches towards the south and the bilateral realism which often comes to the fore. According to institutional dynamics and preferences – as well as vacillating local conditions – the EU has moved back and forth along this continuum.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and North Africa
36. The Resumption of Accession Talks: A Hesitant Improvement in Turkey-EU Negotiations
- Author:
- Filippo Urbinati
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- After more than three1year deadlock, 2013 was marked by the attempt by Brussels and Ankara to restart the dialogue for Turkey’s accession to European Union. Two developments were remarkable in this process: the release of the most favorable Progress Report on Turkey since 2009, and the opening of the community acquis Chapter 22 on Regional Policy and Coordination of Structural Instruments. Regarding the former development, the European Commission underlined the positive steps achieved by Turkey and the pressing need for the EU to enhance its engagement with Turkey and revitalize the accession negotiations’ framework as the main way to promote EU sponsored reforms. As far as the latter development is concerned, the relevance of the opening of a new chapter cannot be overestimated as the political stumbling blocks, which led the negotiations to stagnation, have been kept untouched and are still far from solved. This policy update is intended to give account of the main issues connected with these developments and underline the reasons for why they have to be considered important steps forward but¬ the decisive ones.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, European Union, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
37. Energy Crossroads: Shifting Dynamics in the Troubled Triangle Between Ankara, Erbil and Baghdad
- Author:
- Emanuela Pergolizzi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Iraq, Turkey, and the Kurdistan Regional Government are in tense political relations over recent energy politics and regional dynamics. While major international interests related to oil and gas resources might currently be at stake, historic mistrusts and deeper political challenges seem to stand in the way of a peaceful trilateral cooperation. While energy deals with the Kurdistan Regional Government grow apace, Ankara seems to stand both as an active gambler and a key facilitator. The domestic and regional dynamics unfolding in Turkey will likely be indicators of whether a durable peace situation can succeed over longHstanding political obstacles and historical tensions between the countries.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Energy Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan
38. The Political Kaleidoscope Turns Again in Crisis-Challenged Iran: 2013 Elections
- Author:
- Barbara Slavin and Yasmin Alem
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Iran has never had what the West would regard as free, fair, and competitive elections. Some would point to the brief periods following the 1906 Constitutional Revolution and between the end of World War II and 1953, when a CIA-backed coup re-installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, as possible exceptions to this rule. The upcoming presidential elections this June will be no such exception, with candidates restricted to eight proven loyalists to the regime. Nevertheless, the vote will be an important barometer of the stability and durability of an embattled regime that is increasingly unpopular domestically and isolated internationally. The elections will also produce a new turn of the kaleidoscope within Iran's shrinking political elite, as existing factions break apart and regroup. The next president is likely to be more moderate in tone, if not in policy, and more competent and less divisive than the outgoing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This could have important implications not just for the country's domestic course but for Iran's confrontation with the United States and the international community over the nuclear question.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
39. The Reluctant Sectarianism of Foreign States in the Syrian Conflict
- Author:
- Thomas Pierret
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Syrian conflict's internal dynamics have reshuffled regional alignments alongside unprecedentedly clear-cut sectarian dividing lines; this has often occurred against the preferences of regional state actors−including Saudi Arabia and Iran. Foreign states have generally adopted expedient policies that followed sectarian patterns for lack of alternatives. Iran bears significant responsibility for exacerbating the conflict's sectarian character at the regional level. There is no such “diplomatic shortcut” to regional appeasement; it is the domestic Syrian deadlock that must be broken in order to alleviate sectarian tensions across the Middle East, not the opposite.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
40. The Frenemy Next Door: Turkey and Israel in a Changing Middle East
- Author:
- Oded Eran and Gallia Lindenstrauss
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Turkish-Israeli relations suffered a big blow because of the Mavi Marmara affair. As Turkey and Israel are working now on mending their relations, the question remains whether they will be able to avoid fierce competition in a relentlessly changing Middle East following the ‘Arab Spring’. As there are also mutual concerns and incentives to cooperate, the term ‘Frenmity’ may be the best way to describe the future relations between the two. In such a complex relationship, the United States may be of help in increasing the elements of amity and cooperation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Arab Spring, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine