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702. Jordan's Youth: Avenues for Activism
- Author:
- Danya Greenfield
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- While Jordanians are focused on the conflict raging in neighboring Syria and the prospect of violence spilling over onto Jordanian soil, below the surface the same kind of political, economic, and social grievances that launched a wave of uprisings in the Arab world are present and intensifying in Jordan with each passing day. As calls for political change swept through Cairo, Tunis, Tripoli, and Sanaa in the spring of 2011, periodic protests emerged throughout Jordan as well, where a diverse mix of people came out in calls for greater freedoms and economic opportunity. Many of the anti-government demonstrations were led by youth, representing a broad spectrum from conservative East Bank tribes to the urban Palestinian-Jordanian elite, and the normally politically apathetic youth population seemed engaged in unprecedented ways. Young Jordanians struggle to land decent jobs, find affordable housing, and save enough money to get married; with 55 percent of the population under the age of twenty-five, and a 26 percent unemployment rate among males between fifteen and twenty-five years old, there is reason to be cognizant about youth discontent emerging in unexpected or critical moments of pressure.
- Topic:
- Economics, Youth Culture, Social Movement, and Political Activism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan
703. The Israeli Experience in Missile Defense: Lessons for NATO
- Author:
- Guillaume Lasconjarias and Jean-loup Samaan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the issue of missile defense has become one of the most prominent features of Israel's military debate. During Operation Pillar of Defense in the Gaza Strip on November 2012, air defense systems such as Iron Dome proved crucial against rockets targeting Israeli territory. As a result, they have attracted increasing political attention. Against this backdrop, international media and policy circles now focus on Israel as the most advanced case to test the validity of missile defense. NATO, in particular, has dedicated a lot of attention to the Israeli experience in missile defense and the lessons to be drawn from it.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
704. The Libyan Economy after the Revolution: Still No Clear Vision
- Author:
- Karim Mezran and Mohsin Khan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Libyan economy collapsed in the wake of the popular uprising in February 2011 that led to the overthrow of the Muammar Qaddafi regime later that year. As the war raged, virtually all economic activity, especially oil production (the mainstay of the Libyan economy) witnessed a dramatic decline. While there was some recovery in 2012 when the war ended and oil production came back faster than expected, the economy has not yet reached a point of sustained, longer term economic growth. In fact, by 2013, the economy has only just got back to what it was prior to the uprising.
- Topic:
- Economics and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Libya
705. Stability through Change: Toward a New Political Economy in Jordan
- Author:
- Faysal Itani
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Although it appears Jordan has survived the Arab uprisings thus far, all is not well in the Hashemite Kingdom. Over the past twenty years, its political economy has changed profoundly, putting pressure on the foundations of regime stability. The state in Jordan has been retreating from many citizens' economic lives, shrinking its circle of privilege and patronage, and leaving the population to fend for itself in a dysfunctional economy. Worryingly, the segment of the population most affected is the monarchy's base, which sees the Palestinian-Jordanian population as benefiting from the new status quo. Today, Jordan is also coping with hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, many of whom may remain in the country long term. Yet the real danger to the monarchy's stability is not the immediate cost of refugee care but the alienation of its traditional power base.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Economics, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan
706. Building a Better US-Gulf Partnership
- Author:
- Richard LeBaron
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Tension between the United States and its partners in the Gulf flared up visibly in the last several months, notably with Saudi Arabia's public displays of displeasure with the US approach to the Syria conflict, nervousness about an interim nuclear deal with Iran, and sharp differences over Egypt. Gulf distrust of US intentions and actions is nothing new, and is in no small part rooted in the Gulf states' deep frustration with how the United States executed the war in Iraq, which they perceive as placing Iraq under Iran's sphere of influence. But these latest tensions also point to a fundamental gap in expectations about the US role in the region and its commitment to security for the Gulf states.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt
707. Iran, Afghanistan, and South Asia: Resolving Regional Sources of Instability
- Author:
- Barbara Slavin and Fatemah Aman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- When compared to its often rocky relations with Arab countries to the west, the Islamic Republic of Iran has managed to retain largely cordial ties with its neighbors to the east. Historic linguistic, religious, and cultural connections have helped Iran keep its influence in South Asia and become a key trading partner despite US-led sanctions. Because of its strategic location on the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea, Iran provides India with access to Afghanistan and Central Asia that does not require transit through Pakistan. However, Iran and its neighbors, including Pakistan, face acute challenges such as scarce and poorly managed water resources, ethnic insurgencies, energy imbalances, and drug trafficking that require regional solutions.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iran, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Arabia, North America, and Persia
708. The Kurdish Question and US-Turkish Relations in a Changing Middle East
- Author:
- Jeffrey Mankoff and Müjge Küçükkeleş
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Growing disorder throughout the Middle East has created the possibility for major changes to the status of Kurdish minorities in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey. Turkey's handling of its Kurdish population and its relations with Kurdish groups throughout the region are creating new challenges for US foreign policy and US-Turkish relations. US policy toward the Kurds remains subordinate to wider regional security interests. Officially, the United States does not support the establishment of an independent Kurdish state. In practice, however, US policy is often inconsistent: the United States backs Kurdish groups in some states while opposing them in others.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Ethnic Government, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, North America, and Kurdistan
709. How to Stop Doing Business with Russia's Arm Exporter
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Human Rights First
- Abstract:
- As part of the United States plan to begin military withdrawals from Afghanistan in 2014, the Department of Defense (DOD) contracted with the Russian state owned arms dealer, Rosoboronexport, to provide helicopters to the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF). DOD has continued and expanded its purchases from Rosoboronexport even while acknowledging that the Russian arms dealer has enabled mass atrocities by supplying Syria's Bashar al-Assad with weapons that have been used to murder Syrian civilians.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Human Rights, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Asia
710. The Frenemy Next Door: Turkey and Israel in a Changing Middle East
- Author:
- Oded Eran and Gallia Lindenstrauss
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Turkish-Israeli relations suffered a big blow because of the Mavi Marmara affair. As Turkey and Israel are working now on mending their relations, the question remains whether they will be able to avoid fierce competition in a relentlessly changing Middle East following the ‘Arab Spring’. As there are also mutual concerns and incentives to cooperate, the term ‘Frenmity’ may be the best way to describe the future relations between the two. In such a complex relationship, the United States may be of help in increasing the elements of amity and cooperation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Bilateral Relations, Arab Spring, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
711. Eyes Wide Shut: Counter-Narcotics in Transition
- Author:
- David Mansfield and Paul Fishstein
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
- Abstract:
- It is now clear that the production and trade of opiates will have a significant influence on not only the economic, political and security landscape, but even the physical terrain of post-Transition Afghanistan. Levels of opium poppy cultivation are already rising; estimated cultivated area rose by 18 percent in 2012 and is likely to rise significantly over the next few years. And this trend may intensify further as politico-military actors make deals and form coalitions in response to the 2014 handover of security responsibility from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF).
- Topic:
- NATO, International Cooperation, Drugs, Trade, and Illegal Trade
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
712. Syrian Opposition: Risks of Fragmentation and Necessity of Consensus
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Syrian revolution’s landscape, with several centers of political and military power rather than one unified center, seems to be accelerating towards a breakdown. A number of factors, including the path towards Geneva II, lukewarm US-Saudi ties, wider differences between the internal and external opposition and the formation of the Syrian Islamic Front, have contributed to this impending breakdown. If the opposition is able to form an interim government despite considerable uncertainties as well as despite the necessary link with and responsibility to the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, it will provide a great opportunity to strengthen the relationship between internal opposition groups and those abroad. The most urgent challenge to the Syrian revolution today is enhancing confidence of all political and military powers in such a way that consensus is built on all levels. Anything short of that will render the revolution (militarily and politically) even more vulnerable to the changing winds around it.
- Topic:
- Politics, United Nations, Syrian War, Revolution, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
713. Iran's Nuclear and Missile Programs as P5+1 Talks Resume
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann and Kelsey Davenport
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- As negotiations are poised to resume between Iran and the six powers seeking to rein in Iran's nuclear program, it is difficult to avoid a sense of déjà vu. For years now, the UN Security Council has demanded Iran suspend uranium enrichment. Tehran continues to expand its nuclear program and insists it will never compromise its right to enrich, the United States continues to tighten sanctions on Iranian trade and finances, and alarms are raised about Iran being able to sprint to a nuclear bomb with little warning. Yet, with a new Iranian president and negotiating team, there are grounds for cautious optimism that talks this time can be different. Although Iran continues to enrich uranium and add to its nuclear complex, time remains to negotiate an agreement that adequately guards against Iran building nuclear weapons.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Nonproliferation, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
714. Lessons for Handling Iran From the Sad Saga of Iraq
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann and Alexandra Schmitt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- Ten years ago today, President George W. Bush said in a radio address to the nation: "It is clear that Saddam Hussein is still violating the demands of the United Nations by refusing to disarm." Eleven days later, he announced the invasion of Iraq to remove the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) allegedly possessed by Hussein's brutal regime and to prevent their use by or transfer to terrorist networks such as al Qaeda. That no such weapons existed was less a symptom of flawed intelligence than the U.S. leaders' obsession with achieving regime change in Baghdad and their consequent willingness to distort evidence on WMD toward that end. This distortion, along with failures by the press and Congress to exercise due diligence in evaluating the assertions of the executive branch, blinded the public to contravening information on Iraqi WMD that was readily available during the six weeks preceding the attack. Ironically, the most important sources of this ignored information were the very inspectors that the international community had forced Iraq to readmit the previous fall. There are lessons here for current efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, History, and Iraq War
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
715. Iran's Missile Program and Its Implications for U.S. Missile Defense
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- Although plans for expanding U.S. strategic missile defenses focus on the Iranian ICBM threat, that threat is not emerging as was previously predicted. Iran conducted no long-range ballistic missile tests in 2012 and has not flown even the larger space launch vehicle that it displayed two years ago, which could have helped advance ICBM technology. Moreover, Tehran has still not decided to build nuclear weapons and continues to focus on short- and medium-range rather than longer-range ballistic missiles. It is, therefore, time to adapt U.S. missile defense plans accordingly by suspending the fourth phase of the European Phased Adaptive Approach. Doing so would remove an obstacle to negotiating further reductions in the strategic forces of Russia - the only country that poses an unambiguous existential threat to the United States.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Missile Defense, and ICBM
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
716. What the Women Say: Voices from the Ground: Syria’s Humanitarian Crisis
- Author:
- International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
- Abstract:
- In recent months ICAN’s staff have held regular in-person and online consultations with Syrian civil society activists based inside the country or those who have recently left. They are providing relief and development support to refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). They speak of the humanitarian threats, security, political, economic and psycho-social challenges that people are facing and the emergence of a nascent but committed civil society. The international community must recognize their resilience, and aspirations for the future, and support their efforts to withstand the impact of war. Their work is a testament to the dignity and humanity of Syrians and provides a glimpse of a peaceful pluralistic Syria for which they are striving. This brief summarizes key priorities and recommendations on immediate humanitarian issues that must be addressed by the international community.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, Economy, Arab Spring, Syrian War, and Internal Displacement
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
717. What the Women Say: Picking up the Pieces: Iraqi Women in the Aftermath of War and Occupation
- Author:
- International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
- Abstract:
- Just over a year ago the US military officially withdrew from Iraq, ending a nine-year occupation. But it has not meant peace for Iraqis. The decade of sanctions, followed by war and occupation devastated the country’s socioeconomic fabric. Despite the billions allocated for reconstruction, the country is suffering from greater poverty and corruption than pre-2003.1 Meanwhile, political sectarianism and violence continues. This brief highlights the perspectives of Iraqi women, particularly civil society and peace activists, regarding the losses and gains during the US intervention, the evolving trends and the opportunities and difficulties they face. It offers recommendations to national and international actors on how best to support their efforts to attain and sustain a just peace.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Sanctions, Women, Occupation, Peace, Iraq War, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
718. Iran's Presence in Iraq: New Realities?
- Author:
- Mahjoob Zweiri
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
- Abstract:
- This study explores the new realties related to the Iran’s presence in Iraq. It focuses on Iran’s grand strategy in Iraq, and Iran’s decision-making process concerning that presence. The study discusses different methods that Iran has used to achieve its goals in Iraq. It also discusses in-depth the four Iranian levels of intervention in Iraq, and the consequences on the region. The study includes supporting data, which help to understand the nature of Iranian intervention in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, Foreign Interference, and Decision-Making
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
719. Understanding the Links Between Sexual and Reproductive Health Status and Poverty Reduction
- Author:
- Nata Duvvury and Philip Oxhorn
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
- Abstract:
- The interrelationship between poverty and sexual and reproductive health status (SRHS) is widely noted in academic, policy and programmatic discourses, though none establishes causality. The primary emphasis in these discourses is that poor SRHS is an outcome of poverty, and thus can be addressed through poverty reduction programmes. The purpose of this brief is to understand what factors contribute to the interrelationship between SRHS and poverty, with a specific focus on understanding how SRHS impacts household poverty. Future studies may then focus specifically on these factors in order to address issues of causality. This brief is based on desk research involving two sources of data: 1) a review of global literature and 2) three country case studies. The global literature review examined literature documenting the nature, extent and strength of the interrelationship between poverty and SRHS. The literature search was conducted using keywords from different disciplinary perspectives demography, economics, development, women’s studies, sociology, human rights and public health. Key databases such as JSTOR, PubMed, MEDLINE and Elsevier Science Direct were consulted, as well as the specific library databases at National University of Ireland, Galway and McGill University. Researchers at McGill compiled an annotated bibliography of literature on India. The three country case studies were undertaken in Brazil, Ghana and Lebanon. Consultants in each country undertook an extensive search of academic, policy and programmatic literature including journal publications, research reports, policy briefs, and non-governmental organization (NGO) reports. The literature search in each country followed the same method as the global literature review, including identifying keywords from different disciplines and exploring different databases. In addition, the consultants searched grey literature through contacting various NGOs and research institutions. They also obtained statistical information from governmental and institutional databases. All country case studies explored three key questions: 1) Is there literature that demonstrates the impact of poor SRHS on poverty? 2) What factors have been highlighted in the literature as influencing the relationship between SRHS and poverty? 3) Are there trade-offs involved for women between education, fertility, status and work participation? and 4) Do programmes by civil society organizations, such as micro-credit or income-generating programmes, promote sexual and reproductive health?
- Topic:
- Development, Education, Poverty, Health Care Policy, and Reproductive Health
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Brazil, South America, Lebanon, and Ghana
720. The advent of 'Islamic' democracy in MENA
- Author:
- Khalil al-Anani
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The Arab Spring has reshaped the political landscape in MENA region. According to this new EuroMeSCo Brief by professor Khalil al-Anani, Middle Eastern and North African politics are now marked by the rise of Islamist parties either from the far right (Salafis and ex-jihadis), the center (the Musltim Brothers in Egypt) and the progressive and liberal Islamists in Tunis and Morocco. Khalil al-Anani highlights that Islamists were alienated under the despotic regimes and that after the Arab Spring they have significantly transformed its ideology, strategies and rhetoric, entering the political game. This transformation takes place in an increasingly competitive and fragmented political scene in which some Islamist parties have tended to adopt more pragmatic programs whereas others are still preoccupied with identity politics. Regarding foreign policy, an emerging commonality among Islamists can be identified: to seek a balanced relationship with western countries based on mutual respect and interests. Professor Khalil al-Anani concludes that Islamists will not necessarily become liberal but that they will have to succumb to the increasing demands of personal and public freedoms around the Arab world.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
721. 2011— A Testing Year for Turkish Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Özdem Sanberk
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
- Abstract:
- 2011 was undoubtedly a year that witnessed the beginning of grand transformations which will continue in the years ahead. The popular movements under the name of the Arab Spring started in Tunisia and spread quickly to the rest of the region, sparking the process of political transformation. In another part of the world, the economic crisis which began in Greece and then engulfed the whole eurozone took the European Union to a difficult test regarding its future. Both events, one lying to the south of Turkey and the other to its west, interact directly with our country and therefore its zone of interest. Ankara inevitably stands in the epicenter of these two transformations of which the effects will certainly continue for a long period. Consequently, rising as a stable focus of power with its growing economy and its expanding democracy, Turkey has tried to respond to historically important developments throughout the year. In light of these realities and developments, this study will focus on the performance of Turkish foreign policy with regard to global and regional transformations which took place during 2011.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Diplomacy, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia
722. The Three Versions of Al Qaeda: A Primer
- Author:
- Clint Watts
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Al Qaeda today only slightly resembles the al Qaeda of yesteryear. Al Qaeda operatives or "al Qaeda-like" organizations stretch throughout North Africa, across the Middle East and into South Asia. This disparate string of organizations hosts a handful of al Qaeda's original Afghanistan and Pakistan veterans but mostly consist of newcomers inspired by al Qaeda's message -- disenfranchised young men seeking an adventurous fight in the wake of a tumultuous Arab Spring. Al Qaeda, or more appropriately jihadism pursued under al Qaeda's banner, has morphed in several waves over the course of more than two decades.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Canada, and Arabia
723. Giving the Surge Partial Credit for Iraq's 2007 Reduction in Violence
- Author:
- Stephen Biddle, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Jeffrey A. Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Why did violence decline in Iraq in 2007? Many credit the "surge," or the program of U.S. reinforcements and doctrinal changes that began in January 2007. Others cite the voluntary insurgent stand-downs of the Sunni Awakening or say that the violence had simply run its course after a wave of sectarian cleansing. Evidence drawn from recently declassified data on violence at local levels and a series of seventy structured interviews with coalition participants finds little support for the cleansing or Awakening theses. This analysis constitutes the first attempt to gather systematic evidence across space and time to help resolve this debate, and it shows that a synergistic interaction between the surge and the Awakening was required for violence to drop as quickly and widely as it did.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
724. The Uprisings and the Future of North Africa and the Middle East: The Vienna Seminar 2012
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- "Seldom in the history of the Middle East and North Africa have so many changes taken place so dramatically, so quickly, and at the same time." This observation, made by a participant at the International Peace Institute's 2012 Vienna Seminar, helps explain the world's current focus on the uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East. The purpose of the forty-second annual Vienna Seminar was to make sense of these changes and see what steps can be taken to encourage the positive trends, and to promote peace and security in the region.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Tunisia, and Vienna
725. Renewed Violence in Iraq
- Author:
- Douglas A. Ollivant
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Iraq remains a fragile state deeply traumatized and riven by thirty years of war, sanctions, occupation, and civil strife. Although there are numerous positive signs of progress in Iraq—violence has fallen to its lowest level since 2003, its economy is growing modestly, oil production recently surpassed that of Iran, and foreign investment is beginning to restore infrastructure decayed by years of war and sanctions—the risk of acute instability and renewed conflict remains. Already, in the wake of the U.S. military withdrawal in December 2011, Iraq has seen a fierce political struggle between Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and many of his rivals in the Sunni-dominated Iraqiya parliamentary coalition, plus increasing tension with at least some segments of the Kurdish minority. For the positive trends to continue, Iraq will need to contain various threats to internal stability and weather regional turmoil that could worsen significantly in the coming months. The United States has a significant stake in helping Iraq overcome these challenges; Iraq is a critical state within a critical region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Oil, Fragile/Failed State, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
726. Beyond Ceasefire: Ending the blockade of Gaza
- Author:
- Martin Hartberg
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The ceasefire agreed between the Government of Israel and Hamas on 21 November 2012, following the recent military escalation in Gaza and southern Israel, provides an unprecedented opportunity to end the cycle of violence that has affected too many innocent Israeli and Palestinian civilians. In the ceasefire understanding, the parties agreed to negotiate 'opening the crossings' into the Gaza Strip and to put an end to 'restricting residents' free movement and targeting residents in border areas'. It is therefore also a unique chance to once and for all lift the Israeli blockade on Gaza, which has had a devastating impact on the lives and well-being of Gaza's civilian population and on Palestinian development.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Islam, War, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza
727. A New Paradigm? Prospects and Challenges for U.S. Global Leadership
- Author:
- Tural Ahmadov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Throughout the years the overwhelming preponderance of US global leadership is debated by scholars and politicians. In light of the 'rise of the rest', this preponderance is either diminishing or still standing. As of now, yet again, the US is a dominant player both economically and militarily. However, economic recession is likely to make the United States put more emphasis on domestic problems and less emphasis on foreign challenges. Since political and economic landscape is swiftly changing overseas, the United States should act accordingly and cooperate with regional powers on issues of mutual interest. Similarly, as current development is under way in the Middle East, the United States should staunchly back Turkey as the regional hub in dealing with Syrian crisis and foiling Iranian menace.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Asia
728. Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril
- Author:
- Robin Wright and Garrett Nada
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Middle East faces even bigger challenges in 2013 than it did during the first two years of the so-called Arab Spring. So far—a pivotal caveat—the Arab uprisings have deepened the political divide, worsened economic woes and produced greater insecurity. Solutions are not imminent either. More than 120 million people in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen have experienced successful uprisings that ousted four leaders who together ruled a total of 129 years. But more than half of the Arab world's 350 million people have yet to witness any real change at all. Defining a new order has proven far harder than ousting old autocrats. Phase one was creating conditions for democracy. Phase two is a kind of democratic chaos as dozens of parties in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia do political battle (and in some cases physical battle) over constitutions. Ancien regimes have not totally given up, as in Yemen. The cost of change has exceeded even the highest estimates, as in Syria. So most Arabs are probably disappointed with the “Arab Spring” for one of many reasons. Nevertheless the uprisings were never going to happen in one season. This is instead only the beginning of a decades-long process—as most in the West should know from their own experiences.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Post Colonialism, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia
729. Financial markets in GCC countries: recent crises and structural weaknesses
- Author:
- Steffen Hertog
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries' financial sectors are solid, but not very sophisticated: business is mostly financed through bank lending rather than bonds or stock issues, and banks continue to rely on state support and, in many cases, are directly state owned.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
730. Foreign labour and labour migration in the small GCC states
- Author:
- Andrew Gardner
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Although large-scale migration to the Arabian Peninsula is often framed as a new or novel situation, an examination of historical accounts reveals cities, ports and peoples intricately connected with the greater Indian Ocean world for more than a millennium. For much of the past century, however, migration to the region has been organised through the kafala , or sponsorship system, which is almost ubiquitously posited as the causal force behind current labour-related problems. The right to work in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states has been globally commodified, and low-skilled workers often pay $2,000 or more for the right to work in Arabia for a year or more. Low-skilled workers in the GCC states are best conceptualised as emissaries of a larger household livelihood and investment strategy. Living quarters for such workers in Arabia are often substandard, and the enforcement of existing laws, regulations and policies is often poor to inadequate. Youthful and worldly local populations have a demonstrably different attitude to labour rights and issues than their predecessors and elders, and these growing trends should be broadly supported through policy planning in the region. The enforcement of existing regulations and labour laws should also be supported where possible. Finally, the overall number of international organisations now focused on labour rights in Arabia provides ample opportunity for policy planners to seek collaborative relationships that might strategically yield significant benefits.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, Migration, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
731. Human rights in the smaller Gulf states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and UAE
- Author:
- Joe Stork
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Human rights conditions in the five smaller Gulf states are quite poor overall. Political and economic power is the monopoly of hereditary ruling families. There is little respect for core civil and political rights such as freedom of expression, assembly and association. Peaceful dissent typically faces harsh repression. The administration of justice is highly personalised, with limited due process protections, especially in political and security-related cases. The right to participate in public affairs by way of election to offices with some authority is extremely limited; the only exception is Kuwait.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman
732. Regional security co-operation in the smaller Gulf states
- Author:
- Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- This overview paper examines the challenges facing regional security co-operation in the five smaller Gulf States. It demonstrates the resilience and durability of intra-regional differences, particularly scepticism of Saudi Arabia's greater size and regional objectives. With the notable exception of Bahrain, differences of outlook have continued into the post-Arab Spring period as Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman hold significant reservations about moving toward a closer Gulf union. The Arab Spring has injected urgent new domestic considerations into a regional security complex hitherto marked by external instability. Yet the bold political action and longer-term planning that is needed to address these issues is lacking, because ruling elites prioritise short-term policies designed to ensure regime security in a narrower sense. This means that security remains defined in hard, “traditional” terms and has not evolved to include the security of individuals and communities rather than rulers and states. The future of regional security co-operation is therefore uncertain and bleak, and the closing of ranks may yet herald a closer Gulf union as rulers come together to deal with the pressures generated by the Arab Spring.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman
733. Rethinking US Relations with a Changing Egypt
- Author:
- Michele Dunne
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With Egypt in the midst of a political transition, this is a crucial time to rethink the US's relationship with Egypt, argues Atlantic Council Director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Michele Dunne in this policy brief for the Project on Middle East Democracy.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
734. The Transatlantic Bargain After "the Pivot"
- Author:
- Barry Pavel and Jeffrey Lightfoot
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The "tough love" farewell speech of former US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates last June was more than a major policy speech on the state of NATO. His remarks were also highly symbolic, coming from a legendary Cold Warrior whose forty-year career had been oriented around the transatlantic relationship. Secretary Gates used his final appearance at the bully pulpit not only to warn Europeans that declining defense budgets risked undermining the credibility of the Alliance among US policymakers, but also that a new wave of American decision-makers would not necessarily share his generation's knowledge of, concern for, or sentimental attachment to the transatlantic alliance.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Europe, Middle East, and North America
735. Beyond the Ballot Box: Egypt's Constitutional Challenge
- Author:
- Mara Revkin and Yussef Auf
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- All eyes are on the ballot box as Egypt prepares for the second round of the first post-Mubarak presidential election on June 16-17, a controversial run-off between the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP, the party founded by the Muslim Brotherhood) candidate Mohamed Morsi and Hosni Mubarak's former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik, two of the most polarizing candidates in the race who together won only 49 percent of the votes cast in the first stage of polling on May 23-24. Egyptians are now faced with a choice between Islamists—who already hold a parliamentary majority and now stand to gain control of two out of the three branches of government—and a symbol of the former regime and military establishment.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Human Rights, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Egypt
736. Economic Policies in Egypt: Populism or Reform?
- Author:
- Mohsin Khan and Svetlana Milbert
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Arab Spring that swept the Middle East last year dramatically altered the political landscape of the region for the better with the overthrow of autocratic regimes. But it also generated considerable uncertainty over the future of economic policies and economic reforms in the Arab world. Will the political transition triggered by the Arab Spring lead to a continuation of the market-oriented economic reforms that most Arab countries had embarked upon over the past two decades, or will more populist regimes emerge that will undo these reforms and adopt economic policies that cater primarily to the immediate demands of the restive public?
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
737. The Diversity of Truth Commissions and Commissions of Inquiry
- Author:
- Evelyne Schmid
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Over the past several decades, dozens of countries have established truth commissions and other bodies to investigate mass atrocities or systematic human rights abuse. Lessons learned from past truth-finding processes are invaluable to help address the legacies of human rights violations in countries transitioning to democratic regimes in the Middle East and North Africa and elsewhere. Truth commissions aim to uncover and acknowledge abuses from the past by recognizing the suffering of victims and making recommendations to prevent a recurrence of violence in the future. When convening authorities establish a truth commission, they need to select a process to choose the commission's membership, decide on the subject matter and a deadline for the work it will do as well as its legal powers, its duration and the extent to which its work is public. USIP has established a Truth Commissions Digital Collection (http://www.usip.org/publications/truth-commission-digital-collection) that provides summaries and vital statistics of 41 past commissions from 35 countries, along with copies of most of their legal charters and final reports. Each commission has a dedicated page along with information on subsequent developments, such as reforms, prosecutions and reparations to victims. The Truth Commissions Digital Collection is a resource for researchers and implementers seeking to learn and apply lessons from the past to make current “truth processes” more effective.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Genocide, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Torture
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Middle East
738. Now or Never: A Negotiated Transition for Syria
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- One year into the Syrian uprising, the level of death and destruction is reaching new heights. Yet, outside actors – whether regime allies or opponents – remain wedded to behaviour that risks making an appalling situation worse. Growing international polarisation simultaneously gives the regime political space to maintain an approach – a mix of limited reforms and escala ting repression – that in the longer run is doomed to fail; guarantees the opposition' s full militarisation, which could trigger all - out civil war; and heightens odds of a regional proxy war that might well precipitate a dangerous conflagration. Kofi Annan' s appointment as joint UN/Arab League Special Envoy arguably offers a chance to rescue fading prospects for a negotiated transition. It must not be squandered. For that, Russia and others must understand that, short of rapidly reviving a credible political track, only an intensifying military one will remain, with dire consequences for all.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
739. How Verbal Threats to Close Oil Transit Chokepoints Lead to Military Conflict
- Author:
- John Bowlus
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- On December 26, 2011, in response to US, European, and potential Asian sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the government in Tehran issued a threat to “cut off the Strait of Hormuz.” The US Defense Department responded that any blockade of the strait would be met with force. On first read, it is easy to dismiss such saber rattling as another chapter in the new Cold War in the Middle East between Iran and its allies – including Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah – and the US, Israel, and the Sunni Gulf States, mostly notably Saudi Arabia. Iran has since backed away from its threat, but the event still carries importance because it is unclear how both the US and Iran will continue to respond, particularly as the diplomatic and economic pressures grow more acute while Iran's controversial nuclear program advances. Could such a verbal threat by Iran to cut off the Strait of Hormuzignite a military conflagration in the region? The relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions is well established; however, policymakers and analysts tend to focus on the incidents in which military conflict causes disruptions in oil supplies and sharp increases in prices. The first and most obvious example of this dynamic was the Arab-Israeli War of 1973. The subsequent oil embargo by the Arab members of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) against the United States and the Netherlands for their support of Israel caused prices to soar as oil-consuming nations endured supply shortages. The Iranian Revolution from 1978 to 1979 was another event that curtailed Western nations' access to oil and caused prices to spike. When thinking about the relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions, however, policymakers and analysts should also recognize that the competition over oil – and even verbal threats to disrupt oil supplies by closing oil transit chokepoints – have either led directly to military conflict or have provided a useful cover under which countries have initiated military conflict. By examining past episodes when countries issued threats to close oil transit chokepoints, this Policy Brief helps illuminate the dangers associated with the current crisis over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia
740. Using US Strategic Reserves to Moderate Potential Oil Price Increases from Sanctions on Iran
- Author:
- Philip K. Verleger
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The United States has initiated new sanctions against Iran aimed at preventing it from collecting revenue from exports of crude oil. The European Union has followed, embargoing all imports of Iranian crude from July 1, 2012 and preventing any firms from entering into new contracts to import Iranian oil after January 23, 2012. The new US and EU sanctions could be the most draconian in many years. If implemented fully, US sanctions would force trading partners to choose between the United States and Iran. EU sanctions would cut Iran off from an important market. These sanctions, while reducing Iranian income, could pose a very serious economic threat to countries that have significant trade with the United States and/or import significant quantities of oil from Iran.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Oil, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East
741. Arab League's Syrian Policy
- Author:
- Müjge Küçükkeleş
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- Suspension of Syria's Arab League membership in November 2011 could be characterized as a turning point in Arab league's 66-year old history. By condemning the Syrian and Libyan regimes for disproportionate use of violence against their own people, the Arab League has somewhat found rightful the demand of Arab people. the League has signaled with these decisions that it would move away from ideas of Arab nationalism and Arab unity in pursuit of further integration with the international system. On the other hand, the authoritarian state systems of most of the member states of the League make it difficult to regard Arab League decisions as steps supporting democracy. The League's ''democratic stance'' is an outcome of the pressure of revolutions as much as of harmony of interests among the member states. Even though strengthening democracy in the region seems like an unrealistic desire of member states, these decisions push each member towards thinking about change and thus pave the way for democratic reform process. The study at hand consists of two parts. The first part addresses the League's policy proposals, decisions, and reactions regarding the Syrian crisis and concentrates on what these all policy measures mean for the League as a regional organization. The second part examines regional dynamics that play a crucial role in the current crisis by looking at different positions of regional and global actors on the Syrian crisis.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Regional Cooperation, Regime Change, and Political Activism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Arabia, and Syria
742. The Arab Spring: How soon will foreign investors return?
- Author:
- Nathan M. Jensen, Persephone Economou, Paul Antony Barbour, and Daniel Villar
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- The events of the Arab Spring have dramatically increased the risk perceptions of foreign investors. In directly affected countries, these events led to disruptions in economic activity including plummeting tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, all of which negatively impacted economic growth. While the economic impact was uneven across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, for the region's developing countries the growth rate assumption underpinning survey analysis in the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency's (MIGA's) World Investment and Political Risk Report for 2011 was 1.7%. How much will these developments affect future FDI?
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Regime Change, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
743. U.S.-Turkey Relations: A New Partnership
- Author:
- Stephen J. Hadley, Steven A. Cook, and Madeleine Albright
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Among the most important developments in international affairs of the past decade is the emergence of Turkey as a rising regional and global power. Turkey has long been an important country as a stalwart member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an aspirant to European Union (EU) membership, and an important link between the West and the East. Yet the changes in Turkey over the past decade have been so dramatic—with far-reaching political and economic reforms, significant social reforms, and an active foreign policy—that the country is virtually unrecognizable to longtime Turkey watchers. Today Turkey is more democratic, prosperous, and politically influential than it was five, ten, and fifteen years ago.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Democratization, Economics, Human Rights, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Middle East
744. Syria's Phase of Radicalisation
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As the 10 April deadline Kofi Annan (the UN and Arab League joint Special Envoy) set for implementation of his peace plan strikes , the conflict ' s dynamics have taken an ugly and worrying turn. Syrians from all walks of life appear dumbfounded by the horrific levels of violence and hatred generated by the crisis. Regime forces have subjected entire neighbourhoods to intense bombardment, purportedly to crush armed opposition groups yet with no regard for civilians. Within the largest cities, innocent lives have been lost due to massive bomb attacks in the vicinity of key security installations. Perhaps most sickening of all have been pictures displaying the massacre of whole families, including the shattered skulls of young children. The first anniversary of what began as a predominantly peaceful protest movement came and went with only scattered popular demonstrations. Instead, there was immeasurable bloodshed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, United Nations, and Syria
745. Fransa’da İslamofobik Söylemin Ana Akımlaşması ve Arap Baharı’nın Etkisi | Effect of Arab Spring as Islamophobic Discourse Becomes Mainstream in France
- Author:
- Ömer Behram Özdemir
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- Arap Baharı sırasında yaşananlar ve bunların dolaylı ve doğrudan etkileri, sadece Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika’da değil Batı’da da tartışmalara neden olmuştur. Pek çok uluslararası aktörün Ortadoğu politikalarının değişmesinin yanı sıra, bu sürecin söylemlerde de şekillendirici bir etkisi olduğu bu makalenin dayandığı ana fikirdir. Makalede Fransa örneği üzerinden Müslüman kimliğine karşı İslamofobik söylemlerin siyaset ve medya dilinde ana akımlaşması ve bunun toplum tabanında karşılık gördüğü tezi görsel medya materyalleri ve toplumsal araştırma sonuçlarıyla desteklenirken, “İslamcı” kavramının Arap Baharı süreciyle kullanımındaki değişim ve Müslüman kimliğinin görünürlüğü sorunsalı tartışılacaktır. Böylece Arap Baharı’nın kavram ve söylemler üzerinde şekillendirici bir özelliği olduğu tezi savunulacaktır. | With its consequences, direct and indirect effects, the Arab Spring became a matter of debate not only in the Middle East and North Africa but also in the West. It has a formative effect which has an impact on discourses as well as policies towards the Middle East. In this article, this impact will be discussed in the case of France. The rise of Islamophobic discourses in media and politics, enemization of the concept of “Islamism” and visibility problem of Muslim identity will be discussed in the light of some visual media materials and social researches. Thus, the effect of the Arab Spring on Islamophobic discourse of French politics, media and society will be focused on.
- Topic:
- Arab Spring, Islamophobia, Far Right, and Islamism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and France
746. What Can Arab Countries Learn From Post-communist Transition?
- Author:
- Marek Dabrowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- More than a year has passed since the beginning of the political uprising against the authoritarian regimes in the Arab world. But, as demonstrated by the recent dramatic developments in Syria, the process is far from over. Meanwhile nations which have already freed themselves from their authoritarian rulers (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen), must decide where to go and how to manage their political and economic changes. To a lesser extent, a similar challenge is being faced by those constitutional monarchies (like Morocco or Jordan) which accelerated reforms in order to avoid political destabilization. Many politicians and experts, especially those from Central and Eastern Europe, suggest their Arab colleagues learn from the experience of the postcommunist transition of the early 1990s. However, while learning from others is always a useful exercise, the geopolitical and socio-economic context of the Arab revolution seems to be different, in many respects, from that of former Soviet bloc countries more than twenty years ago.
- Topic:
- Development, Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, and Post-Soviet Space
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Arab Countries
747. Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Case Study in Successful U.S.-Japan Alliance Management
- Author:
- Vance Serchuk
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- Speaking at Suntory Hall in Tokyo during his inaugural visit to the Asia-Pacific region as President of the United States, Barack Obama in November 2009 affirmed his Administration’s commitment to “an enduring and revitalized alliance between the United States and Japan.” Noting the impending 60th anniversary of the alliance, President Obama pledged to “deepen” the ties between Washington and Tokyo as a cornerstone of a broader strategy of reengagement with the region. At the same time, Obama cast the U.S.-Japan alliance in global terms, noting Japan’s “important contributions to stability around the world—from reconstruction to Iraq, to combating piracy off the Horn of Africa, to assistance for the people of Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and United States of America
748. Land Governance at the Crossroads: A Review of Afghanistan’s Proposed New Land Management Law
- Author:
- Liz Alden Wily
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan’s longstanding Land Management Law, last revised in 2008, is again under review. More than 100 amendments had been formally proposed by mid-2012. So far the proposed changes are mainly editorial and do not reform problematic fundamentals of the law. Some important issues still requiring urgent attention are discussed and examined in this paper.
- Topic:
- Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Land
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
749. Fixing Afghanistan’s Electoral System: Arguments and Options for Reform
- Author:
- Andrew Reynolds and John Carey
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
- Abstract:
- Following Afghanistan’s deeply flawed parliamentary election in 2010, calls for electoral reform among both national and international actors have been steadily gaining momentum. One major focus of criticism has been the country’s use of the single non-transferable vote (SNTV) system, which many argue must be scrapped or overhauled before the next set of legislative elections in 2015. A new paper for AREU by international election experts Andrew Reynolds and John Carey explores how and why SNTV has been so damaging over the course of the last two rounds of legislative polls in 2005 and 2010. It argues that by choking political parties or other alliances of the oxygen they need to flourish, SNTV has left Afghanistan with a weak legislature, unable to advance coherent national policy programmes to deal with the country’s significant challenges. In addition, it highlights a raft of other problems that SNTV has either caused or exacerbated, exploring in particular the ways in which it has left the electorate struggling to see how their votes translate into meaningful representation. It goes on to examine possible options for reform, including an analysis of a new draft Electoral Law proposed by Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission in June 2012.
- Topic:
- Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Parliamentarism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
750. Syria: What China Has Learned From its Libya Experience
- Author:
- Yun Sun
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- China's joint veto along with Russia of the UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) on Syria has provoked fierce international criticism. Labeled as “responsible for Syria's genocide,” Beijing's international image has struck a new low. China's decision to cast the unpopular vote was apparently well thought-out, as evidenced by its consistent diplomatic rhetoric and actions, both before and after the veto. However, in analyzing China's motivation, many analysts seemed to have missed an important point. That is, China's experience concerning Libya in 2011 had a direct impact on its actions regarding Syria this time around.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Insurgency, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Arabia, United Nations, and Syria
751. Turkey and the Iranian nuclear programme: Key to progress in regional disarmament?
- Author:
- Hanna Ojanen and Barbara Zanchetta
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The increasing tension around the Iranian nuclear programme and the uncompromising positions of the protagonists have made the goal of creating a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East seem utopic. Yet, the current strategy of maintaining a low profile in the discussions on the zone, while keeping the focus exclusively on Iran, is not likely to lead to progress. Instead, combining the Iranian question with the zone and enlarging the content and scope of the negotiations even further by including Iran's neighbours could be a better strategy. Turkey could play a key role because of its unique relations with Iran, and because of its strong quest for a more prominent international position — if it can only strike the right balance between the role of lead actor and team player. Turkish-Iranian relations could notably inspire the consideration of accompanying pragmatic agreements on regional cooperation in other fields as a way forward for the upcoming Middle East disarmament negotiations in Finland.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Finland
752. The P5 +1, Iran and the Perils of Nuclear Brinkmanship
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West have had their share of dashed expectations, but even by this peculiar standard, the recent diplomatic roller coaster stands out. Brimming with hope in Istanbul, negotiators crashed to earth in Baghdad, a few weeks later. That was not unexpected, given inflated hopes, mismatched expectations and – most hurtful – conviction on both sides that they had the upper hand. But if negotiations collapse now, it is hard to know what comes next. Washington and Brussels seem to count on sanctions taking their toll and forcing Iran to compromise. Tehran appears to bank on a re-elected President Obama displaying more flexibility and an economically incapacitated Europe balking at sanctions that could boomerang. Neither is likely; instead, with prospects for a deal fading, Israeli pressure for a military option may intensify. Rather than more brinkmanship, Iran and the P5+1 (UN Security Council permanent members and Germany) should agree on intensive, continuous, technicallevel negotiations to achieve a limited agreement on Iran's 20 per cent enrichment.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Middle East
753. The Emerging Order in the Middle East
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway, Paul Salem, Nathan J. Brown, and Sinan Ülgen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- After more than a year of Arab uprisings, the emerging political order in the Middle East is marked by considerable shifts within individual countries as well as at the regional level. Domestically and internationally, new actors are emerging in strong positions and others are fading in importance. Islamist parties are on the rise with many secular forces losing power. And across the region, economic concerns have risen to the fore. These domestic changes have implications for both regional and international actors. There are a number of more ambitious economic and political steps the West should take to respond to these power shifts and engage with these new players.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Regime Change, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
754. Where There's a Will: Tackling the humanitarian crisis in Yemen
- Author:
- Abigael Baldoumas and Kelly Gilbride
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The Yemeni people are facing a worsening humanitarian crisis with more than ten million–44 per cent of the population–facing food insecurity. With the onset of the hunger season, many families have exhausted their coping strategies and are being driven deeper into poverty. Donors remain deeply divided over their approaches to the region's poorest country, thus delaying responses and hindering funding. As the crisis builds, donors must take steps to address immediate humanitarian needs as well as making long term commitments to promote development. The Friends of Yemen ministerial meeting in Riyadh offers a critical opportunity for donors to be decisive, creative and generous if they are to break the cycle of hunger and poverty in Yemen. Yemen's future depends upon reducing people's vulnerability and building resilience for the long term, breaking the hunger cycle and empowering people to realize their potential. Failure to act now will put more lives at risk and further entrench poverty in the country.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Food, and Famine
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia
755. Turkey and Saudi Arabia: Newly Discovered Partners?
- Author:
- Muhittin Ataman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- When we consider Saudi Arabian large population, territories and natural resources, it is obvious that it will continue to preserve its geopolitical, geo-economic and geo-cultural importance in future. The assumption of King Abdullah as the ruler of the country provided an opportunity to restructure the country's foreign policy. The new king began to follow a more pragmatic, rational, interdependent, multilateral and multidimensional foreign policy. He pursues an active foreign policy required to be less dependent on a single state (the United States) and on a single product (oil).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Political Economy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia
756. Jerusalem, Netanyahu and the two-state solution
- Author:
- Daniel Seidemann
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- What are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's real intentions vis-à-vis Israeli–Palestinian negotiations and the two-state solution? What does he really want? Speculation aside, a great deal can be gleaned about both Netanyahu's core beliefs and his intentions by examining his words and his actions with respect to Jerusalem. Jerusalem is universally recognised as a key permanent status issue, which, for any peace agreement, will require the reconciling of competing Israeli and Palestinian claims as well as recognition and protection of Jewish, Muslim and Christian equities. In the context of the current political stalemate, however, it has become much more than that. Today, Jerusalem is both the volcanic core of the conflict – the place where religion and nationalism meet and combine in a potentially volatile mix – and a microcosm of the conflict and the imbalance of power that characterises developments on the ground.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
757. Transitional justice in Egypt: one step forward, two steps back
- Author:
- Judy Barsalou
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- The dominance of neo-patriarchal, semi-authoritarian regimes with little interest in justice, accountability or other values associated with democratic governance has meant that, until recently, the Arab region has had limited experience with transitional justice (TJ). Several states have started down the TJ path since the emergence of the “Arab Spring”, but their progress is uneven. In Egypt, much depends on the nature and speed of the transition, whose outcomes remain uncertain. Whether and how Arab transitional states embrace TJ – especially how they manage the fates of their deposed rulers and essential institutional reforms – will indicate whether they intend to break with the past and build public institutions that inspire civic trust.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
758. Arab Muslim women after the uprisings: the encounter between the liberalisation of Islamist politics and the feminisation of Islamic interpretation
- Author:
- Aitemad Muhanna
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Women's participation in the Arab uprisings has been inspired by the expansion of an Islamist-based model of Arab women's activism and a gradual shrinking of secular liberal women's activism. The uprisings have provided outcomes that prove the possibility of combining Islam with democracy through the political success of Islamist parties in the post-uprisings era, like in Tunisia and Egypt. Although this new de facto political map of the region has largely frightened liberal women, the victory of moderate Islamist voices may also be promising, especially when they are in a position to provide a state governance model. The determining factor in combining Islam with democracy is the willingness of the two major players – Islamist parties and the international community – to ensure that the main debatable issues – religion, gender and human rights – are not discriminated against in the name of either religion or Western democracy. However, the actual practice and outcomes of moderate Islamist discourse remains under experimentation, and it is a space for Islamist and secular women's and human rights organisations to co-operate, monitor, negotiate and strategise, to ensure that gender issues are engaged in policy discussions and formulations as a substantial issue for real democratisation.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Gender Issues, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia
759. The media and freedom of expression in the Arab world
- Author:
- Jean-Paul Marthoz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Online media, global TV and social networks played a significant role in the Arab Spring and will be important factors in determining the direction of these “revolutions”.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Science and Technology, Mass Media, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
760. Demographic challenges and opportunities ahead in Middle East and North Africa: "Arab Spring" or "Islamic winter"?
- Author:
- Youssef Courbage
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Since December 2010, the speed, suddenness and scope of events in North Africa and the Middle East have taken everyone by surprise. They nevertheless had to happen. Given the universality of human nature – differences between a European and an Arab are ultimately of minor importance – the processes that began in Europe in the seventeenth century and spread throughout the world would have inevitably reached the Arab countries.
- Topic:
- Demographics and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia
761. How the West can get on the right side of history in the re-awakening Arab world
- Author:
- David Gardner
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- The reign of Arab strongmen supported by the West is drawing to an end. Europe has the duty and the opportunity to get on the right side of history, and to assist in reform and reconstruction, if and when requested. The economic dimension is about more than aid and trade, and will turn importantly on ideas and debate. Policy should be driven by a blatant bias towards democracy and its defenders, the support of competitive politics and open societies, education and the building of institutions, law-based regimes and the empowerment of women – everything many Arabs still find attractive about Western society.
- Topic:
- Post Colonialism, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Arabia
762. Youth integration and job creation in the Middle East
- Author:
- Jad Chaaban
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- The Middle East and North African region is currently faced with one of the toughest socioeconomic challenges in its modern history: a "youth bulge" of almost 100 million young people, of which a quarter are unemployed. Between 40 and 50 million new jobs need to be created in the region's countries over the next decade, and this implies that governments in the region should embark on a labour-intensive and job-creating growth trajectory. Special attention should be given to reducing the unemployment and emigration of skilled youth, and to integrating young women into the labour market. Policies that tackle the institutional and structural impediments to meaningful job creation should be pursued, together with public interventions in social protection and housing programmes that would reduce youth's social exclusion in the region.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Gender Issues, Islam, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
763. Regional implications of the conflict in Syria: a view from Israel
- Author:
- Yossi Alpher
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Syria is geo-strategically, historically and politically the most central of Middle East countries, hence the over-riding importance of the conflict there. Yet any discussion of the regional implications of that conflict is necessarily highly speculative. Its points of departure are the instances of regional intervention and "overflow" from the situation already taking place. Turkey, with its open support for the armed Syrian opposition, is the leading candidate to establish "safe zones" or even "humanitarian corridors" that could conceivably lead to war. Ankara's growing rivalry with Iran is increasingly being acted out in Syria and is interacting with tensions between Sunni Muslims and Alawites/Shias not only in Syria, but in Lebanon and Iraq as well.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Regime Change, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Syria
764. Still Waiting For Change: Making the political transition work for women in Yemen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Women played a key role in Yemen's 2011 popular uprising, but almost a year on they are still waiting for change. Four out of five women consulted by Oxfam in a series of focus group discussions say that their lives have worsened over the last 12 months. Although a transition towards democracy is under way, women's hopes for a better life are wearing thin. A quarter of women between the ages of 15 and 49 are acutely malnourished. Deepening humanitarian crisis and conflict are limiting women's role in shaping Yemen's future. Women have told Oxfam that they need better access to food, jobs, and physical safety. The Government of Yemen and the international community should adequately support the humanitarian response and help ensure women can play their part in building a peaceful and just society.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Government, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia
765. On the Brink: Israeli settlements and their impact on Palestinians in the Jordan Valley
- Author:
- Lara El-Jazairi and Fionna Smyth
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The Jordan Valley, located in the eastern part of the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT), makes up 30 per cent of the West Bank (see Map 1 on page 7). Requisitions and expropriations of Palestinian land by the Israeli authorities continue to destroy the livelihoods of Palestinians living in the area and, unless action is taken, there are strong indications that the situation will only get worse. The Israeli government recently announced proposals and policies for the expansion of settlements, which, if implemented, will further threaten the living conditions and human rights of Palestinian communities in the Jordan Valley, undermining efforts to bring peace and prosperity to the OPT and Israel.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Agriculture, Development, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
766. Case Study: Women's Rights in Egypt
- Author:
- Marleen Nolten
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The 25th of January 2011 uprising in Egypt called for freedom, dignity and social justice. The uprising was full of opportunities and challenges for Egyptian men and women who have been deprived of their political, social and economic rights. Hence, the revolution has given women a sense of freedom and empowerment, and seemed like a perfect opportunity to claim their rights. However, while many groups, including women, overcame their fear to speak out against violations of their basic rights, the changed power relations threatened to ignore women's rights or even reverse gains that were won in the past. Oxfam partners in Egypt have increased their efforts during the last year to collectively formulate priority demands on women's rights and bring these demands to the forefront.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Human Rights, Islam, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
767. The 2012 Presidential Election and American Foreign Policy in the Middle East
- Author:
- Dov Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The United States presidential election in November comes at a crucial moment in world affairs, particularly in the Middle East. The year-long uprising in Syria has devolved into civil war. The conflict between Iran, on the one hand, and the U.S., Europe, and Israel, on the other, has not been diffused. The transition of power in Iraq and the planned force reduction in Afghanistan suggest that both countries will continue to experience marked change. The future of relations with new governments in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen must be reshaped.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Europe, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Syria, and Egypt
768. Diplomatic Engagement: The Path to Avoiding War and Resolving the Nuclear Crisis
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann and Benjamin Seel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- U.S.-Iranian relations are bad and getting worse. The New Year has opened with rising tensions between the United States and Iran and an increased prospect of war—either intentional or accidental. The Nov. 2011 report of the International Atomic Energy Agency details why the international community remains deeply concerned about Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. While sanctions and other measures have slowed down Iran’s movement toward acquiring a nuclear weapons option, Tehran continues to improve its nuclear capabilities and has so far refused to implement the confidence-building steps necessary to ensure it is not pursuing nuclear weapons. The latest round of U.S. unilateral sanctions has been met with Iranian threats of closing the Straits of Hormuz through which 35% of the world’s seaborne oil passes. Iran reinforced those threats with ten days of military exercises in nearby waters that included launches of anti-ship missiles. These and other developments highlight how relatively minor incidents could quickly escalate into a major military conflict. At the same time, Iran proposed on December 31 a new round of talks with the P5+1 group of nations, suggesting that that diplomatic options to resolve the nuclear concerns about its nuclear activities have not been exhausted. In the following Iran Nuclear Brief, ACA Senior Fellow Greg Thielmann argues that in order to avoid unintentional conflict with Iran, there is an urgent need to establish better lines of bilateral communication at all levels—between military forces in the region, between diplomats, and between senior officials. Thielmann also explains why pragmatic diplomatic engagement is essential to a successful strategy to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
769. Charting a Diplomatic Path On the Iran Nuclear Challenge
- Author:
- Peter Grail
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- Even as tensions over Iran’s nuclear program rise, the principal parties engaged in the issue say that they seek a peaceful resolution through diplomacy. Earlier this month, Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili reportedly sent a letter to European Union High Representative Catherine Ashton—who represents the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States)—in response to the six-country offer for the renewal of serious talks on Iran’s nuclear program. With the P5+1 insisting that a diplomatic path to resolve the issue remains open and Tehran’s professed interest in dialogue, the question arises: what steps could the two sides take to resolve the impasse? In her letter to Jalili last October calling for renewed negotiations, Ashton said the process would need to begin with confidence-building measures to facilitate longer-term engagement. Given the current trust deficit and the inability of the fractured Iranian political leadership to agree on whether and how to engage on the nuclear issue, an approach that builds upon short-term arrangements makes sense. But it will also be necessary to have some idea of what the end-goal of such engagement might be. In this respect, Ashton said in her letter that the goal of the six countries is “a comprehensive negotiated, long-term solution which restores international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme,” reaffirming the group’s commitment to proposals it put forward 2006 and 2008. This brief provides an overview of these proposals and related confidence-building steps and discusses how they address the critical issue of Iran’s enrichment program.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, European Union, Dialogue, and P5+1
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
770. The Breakout Option: Raising the Bar for the Supreme Leader
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- The U.S. intelligence community still assesses that Tehran has not yet actually decided to build a nuclear weapon. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be the one to give that order and the one who would control the weapons. It is therefore worth pondering what steps could discourage him from proceeding down the nuclear weapons path. If Khamenei's foremost goals are the survival of the Islamic Republic with himself as supreme leader, developing nuclear capabilities may be seen an asset, even with the damaging sanctions that result. By positioning himself as a defiant defender of Iranian nuclear progress against foreign bullying, he can reinforce the domestic legitimacy of the clerical regime. If he came to believe that Iran could forestall continuing economic punishment and eventual military attack only by abject capitulation, he might decide that breaking out of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to build a bomb would be the preferred path for restoring Iran's international position and securing the Islamic revolution. The challenge for the United States is to devise policies that would make it as difficult as possible for Khamenei to retain domestic support and international sympathy if he were to go for a bomb.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, and History
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
771. Iran Nuclear Negotiations: What's Next After Moscow?
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- On June 19, Iran concluded the third round of talks on its nuclear program in as many months, this time in Moscow, with senior officials of the six powers - the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and China. Although there were strong incentives for the six to secure limits on Iran's most worrisome stockpiles of enriched uranium and for Iran to avoid an impending tightening of economic sanction, no breakthrough was achieved by the end of the latest round. But neither did diplomatic dialogue come to an end. The sides reached agreement to meet again at a technical level within two weeks in Istanbul, to be followed by renewed contact between the senior negotiators. With perseverance from the parties, the ongoing talks can mark the end of the beginning rather than the beginning of the end of chances for ultimate resolution.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Eurasia, and Middle East
772. Submarine Nuclear Reactors: A Worsening Proliferation Challenge
- Author:
- Greg Thielmann
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arms Control Association
- Abstract:
- A long submerged flaw in the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) surfaced conspicuously in June when Iran announced it intended to build a nuclear-powered submarine. The treaty does not ban a non-nuclear weapons state's production of weapons-grade uranium if it is to be used to power a naval reactor. What many now consider a proliferation loophole in the NPT was first seen as theoretical because only nuclear weapons states had nuclear-powered submarines when the treaty was negotiated. Now, as more and more countries initiate or announce intentions to initiate nuclear-powered submarine programs, this excuse for enriching uranium to levels beyond the needs of civilian power reactors intensifies the challenge of achieving U.S. nonproliferation goals. The United States should adjust its policy by: 1) choosing a reactor for the Ohio-class SSBN follow-on that does not require weapons-grade fuel and 2) pushing for multilateral action to close or at least narrow the NPT loophole that allows for non-nuclear weapons states to produce highly enriched uranium for naval reactors.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Submarines, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
773. What the Women Say: Killing them Softly: The Stark Impact of Sanctions on the Lives of Ordinary Iranians
- Author:
- International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
- Abstract:
- In its ongoing series of MENA region ‘What the Women Say’ briefs, ICAN provides a gendered analysis of the impact of sanctions, echoing the voices and experiences of Iranians, particularly women’s rights activists, regarding the social, economic, political and security consequences. At a time when the United States, the European Union and others are heralding their national action plans on women, peace and security that highlight the need for women’s protection in times of crisis and their participation in conflict prevention and peacemaking, this brief offers the international community recommendations on limiting the immediate and long-term damage being wrought on women, Iranian society and ultimately regional security.
- Topic:
- Security, Sanctions, Women, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
774. Voice and Vision: What the Women Say
- Author:
- International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
- Abstract:
- In September 2012 the International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN) convened the first regional “What the Women Say” MENA/South Asia Forum on Rights, Peace and Security with nearly 50 women representing 12 countries in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia region, with international partners. This group of peace and women’s rights experts, practitioners, activists and scholars met over a four-day period to draw on the framework provided by UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on women, peace and security to compare and contrast the fast-paced changes in the region. Their discussions included country situations analyses with attention to the gender dimensions of root causes and evolving political, economic, security, religious and socio-cultural trends; the threats and opportunities facing women’s movements; and the gendered dimensions of key transitional issues notably, legal and constitutional processes, transitional justice, security sector and economic reform.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, Reform, Women, Economy, Peace, Case Study, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Middle East, and North Africa
775. What the Women Say: Egypt’s Fitful Revolution: Women in the Balance
- Author:
- International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
- Abstract:
- With Mohammad Morsi’s inauguration as President of Egypt in June 2012, many Egyptians hoped that the country’s fitful political transition would finally be on a smoother path towards institutional reform and democratization. But much remains in flux. From the outset of the revolution, Egyptian women from all sectors of society were central to the events. They were in the streets alongside men from the early days of the protests. They initiated their own protests. They have borne a large share of the violence dispensed primarily by state security forces, and are frequently the target of hostility and regressive measures introduced by some Islamists. Reflecting on the experiences of women in the uprising and transitional months, this brief provides a snapshot of developments in the past eighteen months including their security concerns, the constitutional process and evolving political landscape and its implication for women. It highlights key recommendations to international and domestic actors with regard to women’s rights, peace, and security.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Reform, Women, Arab Spring, Institutions, Revolution, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt
776. Lebanon: An Overview Context, Evolving Demographics for Women, Sexual and Reproductive Health, Poverty and Women, Gender and Rights
- Author:
- Jocelyn DeJong and Sonya Meyerson-Knox
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
- Abstract:
- Lebanon, a small middle-income country located on the eastern Mediterranean, is typical of many developing nations as it is undergoing demographic and epidemiological transitions with limited resources at hand, and yet unique due to its diverse population and long history of conflict. The conditions of Lebanese women are also fairly unique: A gender analysis Lebanon’s development indicators reveals that Lebanese women experience relatively high levels of health and education, but are lacking a commensurate presence in the public sphere. According to a Lebanese NGO, a “key problem is that gains in health and education have not translated into women’s economic empowerment, advancement in politics, or full equality under the law” (CRTD-A, 2006, p. 8).
- Topic:
- Development, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Women, Sexual Health, and Reproductive Health
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
777. On the Record: Mourning Usama bin Laden
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The following is a sampling of reactions from various Islamist leaders, commentators, and organizations following the death of Usama bin Laden.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
778. Dealing with Iran: How can the EU Achieve its strategic Objectives?
- Author:
- Shirin Pakfar
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The European Union has a unique opportunity to prove its relevance as a global foreign policy actor through resolving the international community's standoff with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Using its High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and its member states, the EU should utilize its powerful trade and energy ties with Tehran to embark on a dialogue with the regime that goes beyond the nuclear programme and addresses a broader set of issues of mutual concern.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Tehran
779. The Great Arab Revolution: Challenges, Dilemmas and Opportunities?
- Author:
- Graeme P. Herd
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Beyond noting the fluidity, ambiguity and ambivalence associated with the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, there is little consensus on causes and likely consequences. Do these geopolitical earthquakes constitute an “Arab Spring” leading to transition democratization, akin to 1989 in Central and Eastern Europe? Or should we look to 1979 in Iran, and the prospect of Sunni rather than Shia theocracy taking hold? Might the wider Muslim world – Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Turkey – provide alternative potential governance models for the MENA region, given indigenous variants appear exhausted and no longer able to self-reproduce? What are the lessons which other MENA incumbent regimes and the international community will identify? How might those lessons be learned?
- Topic:
- Democratization, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
780. A Middle East Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction: For a Comprehensive and Incremental Approach
- Author:
- Marc Finaud
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The 2010 Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference reaffirmed “the importance of the Resolution on the Middle East adopted by the 1995 Review and Extension Conference”, which had been “an essential element of […] the basis on which the Treaty was indefinitely extended”. Indeed, Arab countries had joined consensus in exchange for a call on “all States in the Middle East” (including Israel) “to take practical steps […] aimed at making progress towards […] an effectively verifiable Middle East zone free of [WMD] and their delivery systems”, and on “all States party to the [NPT], and in particular the nuclear-weapon States […] with a view to ensuring the early establishment by regional parties of [such a zone]”. Fifteen years later, the 2010 Review Conference could understandably “regre[t] that little progress ha[d] been achieved”.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
781. The United States in Iraq: Options for 2012
- Author:
- Sean Kane and William Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- With U.S. military forces scheduled to depart Iraq in December of this year, the State Department and other civilian agencies are being asked to assume a scale of operational and programmatic responsibilities far beyond any other embassy in recent memory. The capacity of the U.S. civilian agencies to assume these responsibilities does not now fully exist. Notably, securing and moving U.S. civilians will require more than 5,000 security contractors. A limited U.S. military contingent post-2011 may well be more cost-effective than private security guards and could also relieve State and other civilian agencies of logistical and security responsibilities. This would enable them to focus on their comparative advantages: diplomacy and development assistance. Planning for the post-2011 U.S. mission in Iraq, however, remains hampered by uncertainty as to whether the Iraqi government will request an extension of the American military presence in the country. A small follow-on U.S. military force would appear to safeguard Iraqi stability and make the achievement of U.S. strategic objectives in Iraq more likely, but cannot be counted on. Should such a request not be received from the Iraqi government, the U.S. may need to reduce the planned scale and scope of its operations and goals in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
782. America's Energy Security Options
- Author:
- Trevor Houser
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Like clock-work, as US gasoline prices approached $4 a gallon in spring 2011, energy security moved to the forefront of the American political debate. Global oil prices have recovered from their collapse during the financial crisis more quickly than expected due to resilient developing-country demand and political instability throughout the Middle East and North Africa. As with past oil price spikes, politicians have been quick to offer silver bullet solutions to lower gas prices and make America more energy secure. But given the complexity of the US energy system and global energy markets, it is difficult for even informed observers to evaluate how far current proposals go in solving the country's energy security challenge.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Biofuels
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and North Africa
783. A Raid from the Sea: The Gaza Flotilla Attack and Blockade under Legal Scrutiny
- Author:
- Ufuk Ulutas
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- The publication of the Palmer report written by the panel of inquiry established by the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon once again brought the 31 May 2010 Gaza Flotilla incident and the blockade of Gaza back to world's attention. On May 31, 2010, Israeli commandos stormed a passenger ship, the Mavi Marmara, the largest boat of a flotilla of six boats which were carrying 10000 tons of humanitarian aid to besieged Gaza, in international high waters. The operation left 9 activists dead and over 30 activists wounded. The Israeli military assault against the Mavi Marmara immediately ignited worldwide protests and condemnation. Turkey, whose citizens were attacked by Israeli soldiers in international high waters, 72 miles away from the Gazan coast, took the lead in protests and condemnation. Israel, however, claimed that the demonstrators on the Mavi Marmara were aiming to break the blockade of Gaza and the Israeli commandos were forced onboard to react in an act of self-defense.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
784. The Palestinian Bid for UN Membership: Rationale, Response, Repercussions
- Author:
- David Makovsky, Ghaith al-Omari, and Amos Yadlin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Palestinian decision to appeal to the UN is rooted in frustration with Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu's government and the conviction that negotiations are futile at the moment. Furthermore, they believe that President Obama's efforts, while admirable, will not produce results. These beliefs -- combined with the sense of urgency imparted by the Arab Spring and the growing perception that the Palestinian leadership can no longer back down from the initiative -- makes it likely that they will head to the UN this month as planned.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and United Nations
785. Adapting Norwegian Civilian Capacity for the Future: Implications of the Guéhenno Report
- Author:
- John Karlsrud
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- With vacancy rates averaging at 22% in peace operations around the world for the last decade, and at some instances at twice that rate, it is time for reform of how the UN recruits, deploys and manages civilian capacity in peace operations. To this effect, a UN advisory group report containing a range of recommendations on how the UN can improve in this area was issued in May 2011. As a first step, Under-Secretary-General Susana Malcorra, who was charged with the follow-up of the report, suggested the creation of a Civilian Partnership Cell that should connect the needs of the UN with the civilian capacities of rostering organisations and member states through a virtual web-portal. However, for now only the virtual web-portal will be implemented with the existing budget. Member states have already expressed support for the idea of creating a partnership cell during both consultations with the UN Advisory Group and after launching of the report. The Government of Norway and Norwegian rostering and training organisations should, therefore, in cooperation with international partners, keep up the pressure on the UN to implement this initiative, as well as some of the other key reforms suggested in the report.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Middle East
786. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict – The need for an international solution
- Author:
- Helle Malmvig and Leila Stockmarr
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- If the Middle East Quartet is to regain its relevance and the Obama Administration to deliver on its promise of a New Beginning, a new internationally-sanctioned framework is long overdue.
- Topic:
- Peace Studies and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
787. Yemen: Fragile lives in hungry times
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The promise of what came to be known as the Arab Spring, which dawned in North Africa, sweeping into the Arabian Gulf and up through the Middle East, has foundered in Yemen. Political turmoil has taken hold and reform has stalled, sparking renewed insecurity, devastating an already frail economy, and triggering a national fuel crisis that has in turn driven rising levels of hunger. Levels of child malnutrition in some regions are among the worst in the world. While billions of dollars have been donated to Tunisia, Libya, and to a lesser extent Egypt to rebuild their economies, Yemenis are facing chronic hunger and have few resources at their disposal. While the eyes of the world are on other countries experiencing major upheaval, Yemen must not be forgotten. Leaving the country to simmer and collapse in slow motion will lead to far greater humanitarian and security concerns.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Food, and Famine
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Norway, Yemen, Arabia, United Nations, and Egypt
788. A New Case for Wastewater Reuse in Saudi Arabia: Bringing Energy into the Water Equation
- Author:
- Arani Kajenthira, Laura Diaz Anadon, and Afreen Sidiqqi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Industrial and urban water reuse should be considered along with desalination as options for water supply in Saudi Arabia. Although the Saudi Ministry for Water and Electricity (MoWE) has estimated that an investment of $53 billion will be required for water desalination projects over the next 15 years [1], the evolving necessity to conserve fossil resources and mitigate GHG emissions requires Saudi policy makers to weigh in much more heavily the energy and environmental costs of desalination. Increasing water tariffs for groundwater and desalinated water to more adequately represent the costs of water supply could encourage conservation, but also reuse, which may be more appropriate for many inland and high-altitude cities. The Saudi government should expand its support for water conservation and reuse within industry through financial incentives or through the implementation of cleaner production standards that encourage energy and water conservation and reuse. The case studies discussed in this work suggest that the implementation of water conservation, reuse and recovery measures in the natural gas [2] and crude oil [3] sectors alone have the potential to conserve up to 222 million m3 of water annually [2-4], or 29% of the total industrial water demand in 2009 [5]. In the municipal sector, increasing secondary wastewater treatment and reuse resulted in substantial cost and energy savings for six inland cities, while an estimated 26% of urban water needs could be met by treated wastewater. Therefore, industrial and domestic water reuse have the potential to appreciably reduce water withdrawals, conserve non-renewable aquifer water, and reduce reliance on desalination, which is primarily driven by non-renewable natural gas. Anticipated investments in desalination projects could also be deferred by prioritizing investment in sewage and water distribution networks that would ensure more effective water reclamation and reuse while simultaneously conserving non-renewable groundwater and natural gas resources and preventing the lock-in of potentially unnecessary desalination infrastructure that is likely to become more efficient in future.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Saudi Arabia
789. Syrian Uprising: Looking In, Looking Out
- Author:
- Amr al-Azm
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Syrian regime was initially able to count on its neighbors in two key areas: ensuring that their territories do not become a safe haven for Syrian dissidents and continuing to receive their support on the regional and international level. This support has since eroded as a result of the regime's inability to contain the ever-escalating level of violence being perpetrated against the protesters. The gravest concern for the regime is the emergence of a Benghazi scenario in a city like Aleppo as a result of Turkish military intervention. The Syrian regime now finds itself in an ever-increasing cycle of isolation and increased internal repression.
- Topic:
- Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
790. Baghdad's Wary Support for the Syrian Status Quo
- Author:
- Sean Kane and Elie Abouaoun
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Iraq's reaction to the popular uprising in Syria is mostly determined by the chaos its Shiite-led government believes would follow the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Baghdad possesses limited ability to influence the course of events in Syria, but is using this to provide modest support to the Assad regime. The fractured and sectarian nature of Iraqi politics, however, militates against Baghdad developing a decisive position on the way forward in Syria.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
791. Regional Dynamics of the Syrian Uprising: The Impact on Lebanon and Hezbollah
- Author:
- Mona Yacoubian
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Lebanese society is starkly divided on Syria, but all sides fear the country's potential descent into a sectarian civil war and seek to insulate Lebanon from its fallout. Lebanon's key political actors hold vastly different views on their definitions of interests, threat perceptions and desirable outcomes in Syria. Lebanon has already witnessed some negative Syrian spillover. Going forward, key concerns will center on both directed threats and uncontrolled fallout from worsening instability inside Syria. Lebanon's ability to influence the conflict dynamics inside Syria is limited.
- Topic:
- Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
792. The Gulf States and Syria
- Author:
- Emile Hokayem
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The unrest in Syria offers the Gulf States an opportunity to weaken or even dislodge an Assad regime aligned with Iran, but their ability to project power or shape events in Syria is limited. Dislike of the Assad regime doesn't necessarily align Gulf interests and long-term vision for Syria. Moreover, cooperation on diplomacy and strategy is lacking. Sectarianism, most evidenced in media commentary and clerical statements, is already a major feature of Gulf discourse on Syria. Parts of the Syrian opposition have approached and have been courted by Gulf governments. Still, a degree of unease and mistrust continues to define their relations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria
793. Watching from the Sidelines: Israel and the Syrian Uprising
- Author:
- Ehud Eiran
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Israel has been generally quiet regarding the recent turmoil in Syria, a reflection of the issue\'s relative low priority, as well as Israel\'s limited influence on internal Syrian matters. Israel\'s preferred outcome would be a stable Syrian regime that disassociates itself from the “axis of resistance,” poses no bilateral threats, and controls the border area—though Israel sees no clear path for achieving these aims. The view in Israel is that the basic structure of deterrence still holds vis-à-vis Syria and the regime—even in its desperate circumstances—is unlikely to provoke Israel in dramatic ways.
- Topic:
- Security and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Syria
794. Jordan and the Current Unrest in Syria
- Author:
- Edward W. Gnehm Jr
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The Government of Jordan is deeply concerned about the turmoil in Syria, fearing the spillover effect and knowing Syria's historic capacity to undermine Jordanian internal stability. Initial official Jordanian reaction has been cautious, to avoid antagonizing Syria and provoking retaliation. There is great anxiety over what may follow the collapse of the Assad regime. Jordan is under increased pressure from both internal elements and external powers to toughen its public posture toward Damascus. Ultimately, Amman will react carefully to events in Syria, taking actions that best ensure the security of the state and the survival of the monarchy.
- Topic:
- Security, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
795. Uncharted Waters: Thinking Through Syria's Dynamics
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Syrian crisis may or may not have entered its final phase, but it undoubtedly has entered its most dangerous one to date. The current stage is defined by an explosive mix of heightened strategic stakes tying into a regional and wider international competition on the one hand and emotionally charged attitudes, communal polarisation and political wishful thinking on the other. As dynamics in both Syria and the broader international arena turn squarely against the regime, reactions are ranging from hysterical defiance on the part of its supporters, optimism among protesters that a bloody stalemate finally might end and fears of sectarian retribution or even civil war shared by many, through to triumphalism among those who view the crisis as an historic opportunity to decisively tilt the regional balance of power.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Syria
796. Power to the People? Reactions to the EU's response to the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Jamie Balfour-Paul
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The EU has a long history of co-operation with the Arab region. Its economic and security interests in the region are considerable. In line with the European Consensus on Development, respect for human rights and democracy have been explicit values within EU development policies. Past EU co-operation in the region, especially in health and education, has achieved successes and enabled people to claim certain rights.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Arabia
797. Salam Shabab: Views and Voices of Iraqi Youth
- Author:
- Theo Dolan and Alexis Toriello
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Salam Shabab (Peace Youth) is a unique reality TV series filmed in Iraq that brought together youth from six provinces of Iraq to compete for a chance to become youth “Ambassadors of Peace.” The views of young Iraqis participating in Salam Shabab, along with new surveys on youth perspectives, have begun to create a potential profile of the next generation of Iraqi leaders. Many Iraqi youth express conflicting views on politics and youth participation in Iraq. They are disappointed about not having their voices heard by political and civil society leaders, yet optimistic about their role in shaping the future of their country. Iraqi teenagers express tremendous pride in their local communities, which they associate with peace, unity and coexistence. Yet, the same youth often cannot clearly define what national identity means to them. Regarding their perceptions on building peace, Iraqi youth indicate that peace in Iraq can be achieved through unifying factors such as cross-cultural dialogue. According to them, the similarities among diverse people are more powerful in building peace than their differences. If given the opportunity, a vast majority of Iraqi youth are willing to take on a peacebuilding role, in part by connecting with other youth in Iraq and internationally.
- Topic:
- Mass Media and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
798. From Caution to Boldness: U.S. Policy toward Egypt
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the situation in Egypt continues to unfold, U.S. policy has evolved with breathtaking speed. Just last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the Mubarak regime was stable, but by Tuesday evening, President Obama was making the remarkable statement that Egypt's transition needs to begin "now." This is not only the most serious foreign policy challenge to this U.S. administration, but also one in a list of unforeseen and improbable challenges. Unlike scenarios involving, for example, a North Korean provocation against the South or even a catastrophic terrorist attack -- for which the United States plans and prepares -- the swift demise of Hosni Mubarak's presidency, along with the virtual disappearance of the ruling National Democratic Party and the potential fall of a regime that has been a pillar of U.S. standing in the Middle East for thirty-five years, is an unimagined challenge.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt
799. Protests in Yemen: President Saleh Promises Change
- Author:
- Daniel Green
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 2, Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power since 1978, declared that he would not press for a constitutional amendment allowing him to seek another term during the next election, currently scheduled for 2013. He also pledged that he would not pass power to his son, Ahmed, head of the country's Republican Guard. His remarks were apparently intended to preempt a "day of rage" in the capital, Sana, scheduled by opposition groups for February 3. In addition to parallels with Tunisia and Egypt, Washington will be watching with great attention given Yemen's reputation as a sanctuary for al-Qaeda and its supporters.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia
800. The Arab Revolt: Roots and Perspectives
- Author:
- Vicken Cheterian
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The Arab revolt that started in Tunisia and over¬threw the reign of Zein El-Abedeen Ben Ali is taking the form of a huge wave. The regime of Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, the central state of the Arab World, followed suit. Uprising in Libya continues, in spite of attempts by the Kaddhafi regime to kill it in blood and fire. Ali Abdallah Saleh of Yemen declared that he will not seek a new mandate, a concession which only emboldened both opposition and youth revolt. King Abdallah of Jordan sacked the unpopular government of Samir Rifai, and named Maruf Bakhit as the new prime minister and asked him to bring “true political reforms”. In a word, the entire Arab World is facing an unprecedented wave of revolt.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Corruption, Economics, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia