Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: Middle East / Publication Year: within 25 Years / Topic: Islam

1. How Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia’s Message Framing Primed Its Members to Become Recruits for the Islamic State

Author:: Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: By the time IS came to the fore in Iraq and Syria, many of its themes and activities were already second nature to Tunisian jihadis who had heard similar messaging at home. There are a number of reasons why Tunisians joined the Islamic State in Iraq, Syria, and Libya. One underappreciated aspect of this is the way Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia’s (AST) messaging primed members of the group and others in society that were exposed to, attended, or followed online AST activities and events. In my new book, Your Sons Are at Your Service: Tunisia’s Missionaries of Jihad, I describe this process, which I will examine in brief here. In particular, I will explore AST’s motivational framing, which “functions as prods to action.” The major themes AST crafted in its narrative were related to brotherhood, the defense of Islam, the creation of an Islamic state, and “remaining” as an entity.
Topic:: Islam, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

2. Taking Back the Neighborhood: The IRGC Provincial Guard's Mission to Re-Islamize Iran

Author:: Saeid Golkar
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In 2008, the IRGC established a new branch that remains little known or studied today: the Provincial Guard. Operating in all of Iran's thirty-one provinces plus Tehran city, the IRGC-PG carries out the regime's revolutionary aims at the local level, inculcating conservative religious values, shaping educational curricula, and even sponsoring sports activities. It also delivers military might and security through its Imam Hussein infantry battalions and anti-riot Imam Ali battalions. This pathbreaking Policy Note, written by expert Saeid Golkar, casts the Provincial Guard as a rising actor in Iran's national narrative. If Tehran has its way, the organization will succeed in finally enshrining Iran as an "Islamic society." But domestic precedent suggests this bid will meet more than a little resistance, especially given a regime dealing with economic weakness, a coronavirus pandemic, and a restive, increasingly secularist public emboldened by last year's mass protests.
Topic:: Islam, Military Affairs, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC)
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

3. Challenges and opportunities for conflict resolution with Salafi jihadi armed groups

Author:: Veronique Dudouet and Karin Göldner-Ebenthal
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: This policy brief highlights recommendations for evidence-based policy making on pathways to conflict de-escalation with Salafi jihadi armed groups. It proposes a more nuanced public discussion of the topic. This brief draws mainly on the research report “Dialogue with Salafi jihadi armed groups: Challenges and opportunities for conflict de-escalation” which concludes a two-year research project based on case studies in Somalia, Syria and Mali.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Islam, Religion, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, Syria, Somalia, and Mali

4. Women in Jihadist Organizations: Victims or Terrorists

Author:: Hamoon Khelghat-Doost
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:: Many scholarly works on women in jihadi organizations emphasize women’s lack of agency. Authors of these works argue women have fallen victim to these male-dominated organizations and thus have lost control over their actions. However, certain groups of women in some jihadi organizations—for example, Islamic State (or IS), Jaish al-Fatah, and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham—enjoy a degree of agency within the scope of their duties. This policy brief examines the extent to which women in jihadi organizations have agency—that is, to which extent they are able to make independent decisions. Understanding the conditions under which women have agency, allows policymakers to recognize the diversity of roles and contributions of women within jihadi organizations and design appropriate policy responses.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Islam, Terrorism, Women, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

5. An Intensified Approach to Combatting the Islamic State

Author:: Michele Flournoy and Richard Fontaine
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: In the 11 months since President Barack Obama committed the United States to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), the group has expanded its international reach, metastasized to form offshoots across multiple regions, and increased its perceived momentum. Although U.S. government officials cite a reduction in the overall size of the group’s sanctuary in Iraq and Syria and the killing of thousands of ISIS fighters, the fall of Ramadi and much of Anbar province to the Islamic State served as a wakeup call that current efforts to counter ISIS are not adequate to the task.2 Meanwhile, the threat posed by the terrorist group to Americans at home and abroad appears to be growing as ISIS-inspired individuals conduct attacks targeting Westerners around the globe, including here in the United States.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

6. Syria Calling: Radicalisation in Central Asia

Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Growing numbers of Central Asian citizens, male and female, are travelling to the Middle East to fight or otherwise support the Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIL or ISIS). Prompted in part by political marginalisation and bleak economic prospects that characterise their post-Soviet region, 2,000-4,000 have in the past three years turned their back on their secular states to seek a radical alternative. IS beckons not only to those who seek combat experience, but also to those who envision a more devout, purposeful, fundamentalist religious life. This presents a complex problem to the governments of Central Asia. They are tempted to exploit the phenomenon to crack down on dissent. The more promising solution, however, requires addressing multiple political and administrative failures, revising discriminatory laws and policies, implementing outreach programs for both men and women and creating jobs at home for disadvantaged youths, as well as ensuring better coordination between security services.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Middle East, and Asia

7. Saudi Arabia: The New Power Structure

Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: King Salman has confirmed his reputation as a religious conservative through the reappointment of traditionalist clerics However he has also made some effort to streamline the Saudi government Recent changes have given considerable power to two men from the next generation: King Salman's son and his nephew The result may be good for hard security measures, but less certain for the soft measures necessary for Saudi Arabia to weather the storm.
Topic:: Security, Development, Economics, Islam, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

8. TSG IntelBrief: Responding to the Islamic State

Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The Islamic State's murder of Jordanian hostage Lt Moaz al-Kasasbeh was both a message to the group's fighters that it can counter the coalition's relentless airstrikes as well as an offensive move designed to provoke a high-profile overreaction The air campaign against the Islamic State has been relentless while at the same time has receded from the headlines-a double blow to the group in that it suffers the losses but doesn't benefit from the attendant spectacle The drawn-out 'negotiations' over this past month-while the hostage was already dead-were likely intended to sow division and tension in Jordan, and draw attention to the issue as long as possible before the gruesome finale While Jordan is understandably enraged and will have to strike back, the most effective response might be an escalation that continues to kill the group's fighters away from the headlines.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

9. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State and Savagery

Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Like a page out of the 2004 extremist manifesto "Management of Savagery," the Islamic State has tried to goad the international community into near-sighted reactions without long-term approaches by highlighting the barbarity of its executions of hostages This tactic has thus far failed to ignite the overreaction (outside of press reporting) of Western powers, leaving the group without an important recruitment and incitement tool The Islamic State needs consistent replenishment of fear to overcome its inherently terrible local governance, and so it depends on shocking savagery to serve as both its recruitment magnet and opposition suppression As the group encounters less and less Westerners, given the danger of their presence in the region, it will find increasingly fewer ways to incite the 'us-versus-them' battle it needs to survive.
Topic:: Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

10. Hizballah, Iran, and Israel: Out of the Shadows

Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: While the threat of an immediate escalation between Israel and Hizballah appears to have subsided after deadly tit-for-tat attacks, the trend lines suggest greater conflict ahead In an important and ominous speech on January 30, Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah created, in effect, one long front against Israel that now includes Syria and the Golan Heights as well as Lebanon, increasing the potential for conflict with Israel Iran is no longer moving in the shadows but rather is openly coordinating strategy with its proxy Hizballah as the two seek to strengthen and expand 'the resistance' against Israel All parties involved have specific reasons to avoid a near-term conflict-the upcoming Israeli elections, ongoing Iranian nuclear negotiations, Hizballah's commitments in Syria-but shifting regional power dynamics will only increase the likelihood of serious fighting between them.
Topic:: Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

11. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State's Hostage Strategy

Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The still-unresolved hostage situation involving Jordan, Japan, and the Islamic State is unlike any of the group's previous kidnappings Jordan is in a precarious position, as it seeks the release of one of its citizens-a national hero who comes from a prominent tribe-while not wanting to free one of the perpetrators of the worst terrorist attack in the country's history By demanding the release of failed suicide-bomber Sajida al-Rishawi from Jordanian custody, the Islamic State is trying to elevate itself to the status of negotiating nation-state, and weaken and embarrass a vital member of the coalition seeking its destruction In a striking difference with previous Islamic State hostage situations, current circumstances provide a chance for the group to bolster its standing in the vital Iraqi province of al-Anbar-where al-Rishawi is from-and perhaps slightly lessen tribal pressure on the group The issue is causing tensions between the Iraqi-born leadership of the Islamic State, who want to make the exchange, and a small faction of primarily Saudi fighters, who want to execute the Jordanian pilot for bombing the group.
Topic:: Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Japan, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Jordan

12. TSG IntelBrief: Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State: Same in All but Name

Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The Islamic State and al-Qaeda have more in common than sets them apart, as both groups embrace 'bin Ladinism' even as their leaderships differ on tactics and priorities As the fortunes of the two groups wax and wane, their shared characteristics are likely to become more pronounced and their rivalries less so For the moment, the competition between them weakens their appeal and blunts their impact; any trend towards reconciliation or partnership could magnify the threat they pose across the Arab world.
Topic:: Islam
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

13. ISIS War Game III: The Final Phase

Author:: Bilal Y. Saab
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: September 2015 marked the one-year anniversary of President Barack Obama's speech outlining the administration's strategy to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). Yet, ISIS celebrated in June its own first-year anniversary of setting up a state by conducting three nearly simultaneous terrorist operations in three different countries—France, Tunisia, and Kuwait. Just this past month, ISIS also shocked the world with its attacks in Paris and Beirut and its downing of a Russian airliner in Egypt, killing more than 400 people combined and injuring hundreds more. While nobody expected the destruction of a resilient and agile foe such as ISIS within a couple of years, it is deeply troubling that the coalition is having such a hard time even disrupting its activities.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, War, Counterinsurgency, Fragile/Failed State, and ISIS
Political Geography:: Middle East

14. Religion and Secularism in the Middle East: A Primer

Author:: Aaron Rock-Singer
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Religion was a pillar of pre-modern political identity in the Middle East, arising out of Muslims’ understanding of Islam’s foundational moment and state institutions that developed with the spread of Islamic Empire. Beginning at the turn of the 19th century, European colonial powers and indigenous reformers questioned the centrality of religious identity; instead, it was to be the nation that defined the political community. Since then, the nationalist project has permeated 20th century ideological conflicts in the region, equally shaping the claims of secularists and Islamists. Today, advocates of religious change refer back to early Islamic history as they seek to place religious over national identity, yet they, like their competitors, are unmistakably shaped by the secular nationalist project.
Topic:: Islam, Nationalism, Post Colonialism, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

15. Religious Minorities in the Modern Middle East

Author:: Lev Weitz
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The majority of the Middle East’s population today is Muslim, as it has been for centuries. However, as the place of origin of a range of world religions – including Judaism, Christianity, Zoroastrianism, and many lesser-known faiths – it remains a region of remarkable religious diversity. This article considers the place of religious minorities in the modern Middle East from three angles: their distinctive religious and communal identities, their place in the major transformations of the region’s political landscape from the nineteenth century to the post-World War I era, and the challenges of contemporary political conditions.
Topic:: Demographics, Islam, Religion, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

16. Identity in the Pre-Modern Middle East

Author:: Berkey Jonathan P.
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: We live in an age of identity politics. We define ourselves by one or more objective measures: measures of race, ethnicity, gender, politics, religion, sexual orientation, to name just a few. Those measures then define who we are to others. They determine our place in society, the communities with which we identify, our attitudes towards others and other communities. The politics of identity are fraught, and they interact in ways that both liberate and confine. On the one hand we prize diversity. On the whole, this is a good thing, since it reflects a larger transformation in American life. Like it or not, the fact is that we are becoming, have become, a “multi-cultural society.” No matter what terms we use to define diversity—racial, ethnic, religious, sexual, gender, whatever—we are more diverse now than we have ever been, and we are destined to grow more so. Multi-culturalism is not an option; it is the future. The only question is how, and how well, we are going to deal with it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Religion, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Middle East

17. What Are the Prospects for Success of the Peace Talks on Syria?

Author:: Tiziana Trotta
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The United Nations Peace Conference on Syria is due to take place on 22nd January in Geneva. The Syrian Government and opposition will meet for the first time since the outbreak of the conflict in March 2011. Nevertheless, there are very few prospects of finding a satisfactory solution to end the conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Islam, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

18. TSG IntelBrief: Foreign Fighters in Syria: A Growing Threat

Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The number of foreign fighters is high, 12,000 and counting, and the spread of countries they come from covers much of the globe. Two recent events involving foreign fighters show the radicalizing influence of the war. With the support to bolster Syria's more secular rebel forces at times inconsistent and tepid, the lack of an alternative has accelerated a natural gravitation towards extremist elements. It will be hard to know which returnees pose a threat, and harder still to deal with them. Given that the number of foreign fighters already exceeds those that went to Afghanistan, government resources will be severely strained to monitor all returnees and will have to rely on the help of local communities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Syria

19. TSG IntelBrief: : Foreign Fighters from North Africa in Syria and Iraq

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: No region has seen more of its people travel to fight in Syria than North Africa; more than 3,000 Tunisians have traveled there as of last April, and more than 1,500 Moroccans This is a repeat of a decade ago when large numbers of North Africans traveled to Iraq to fight there as well, in proportions far above those of neighboring countries A significant number of recent North African fighters have conducted suicide bombings in both Iraq and Syria, highlighting that the deadly ideological message of the so-called Islamic State (IS) and other extremist groups is finding purchase in North Africa The reasons for this export of extremists include incomplete political reforms that have failed to redress serious societal issues, persistent high youth unemployment, and a failure to cope with the apparent high levels of disaffection, despair, and anger that drive people to choose violent extremism.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Syria

20. TSG IntelBrief:: The Bomb-Proof Finances of the Islamic State

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Attacking the finances of the so-called Islamic State (IS) with limited collateral damage will be orders of magnitude more difficult than attacking its military factions The group has thoroughly embedded itself into local and regional economies in Syria and Iraq, and damaging its finances while not devastating civilian populations will be as difficult as it is necessary IS oil revenues might be the easiest to disrupt but such action comes with significant collateral economic damage, while taxes, tolls, extortion, and food sales generate more income while remaining highly resistant to external forces In the areas under its control, IS has been providing social services as well as delivering levels of fuel, electricity, and food to populations utterly without recourse, meaning the group needs to be replaced and not simply removed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

21. TSG IntelBrief: Turkey Steps In: A Good Thing?

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The Turkish parliament's vote to authorize the deployment of military forces in Syria and Iraq provided a legal and official framework for such action It may appear to be a positive step in degrading and destroying the putative Islamic State (IS), however, the parliament in its vote used the broader term "terrorist organizations," thus the landscape for Turkey, Syria-Iraq, and regional states and interests remains exceptionally complex Though there is nearly universal and implacable opposition to IS among all actors in Syria and Iraq, Turkey's future role-depending on steps taken-could aggravate tensions not only with Arab Gulf states and Kurdish elements in Syria and Iraq, but Iran, Russia, and the Iraqi government Turkey's desire to create a buffer zone on the Syrian side of its common border remains one of the most sensitive issues Amid reports of increased IS pressure on Kobani, Kurdish PKK has insinuated Turkey will be to blame-not IS-for creating conditions for the refugee crisis, and threatens to resume opposition activity in Turkey. The Turkish parliament's vote Thursday to authorize use of its army and military facilities in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS) may appear at first look to be a positive step for the broader coalition. The measures-to be determined-are in addition to any financial, diplomatic, humanitarian, and support activities for the anti-IS coalition. However, parliament's vote did not entail Turkey's officially joining the coalition. After the recent deal-details yet to be revealed-to bring home over 40 hostages IS had taken from Turkey's consulate in Mosul, Iraq, in June 2014, pressure increased for Turkey to take military steps in the anti-IS fight. A factor increasing the possibility of military action is Turkish special operations forces' guarding the tomb of Suleyman Shah, a Turkish enclave in Syria reported to be increasingly surrounded by IS. Though there is almost universal animus toward IS in the region, there is also nearly uniform resistance to Turkey's perceived unilateral military involvement in Syria and Iraq, outside the framework of the anti-IS coalition. Turkey's next moves may cause more conflict than benefit in the anti-IS fight. Indeed, the political landscape for Turkey's moves at home and abroad remains extraordinarily complex.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

22. TSG IntelBrief: Economic Drivers of an Iran Nuclear Deal

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: There are clear and compelling economic imperatives for Iran to accept a nuclear agreement with the P5+1 (U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany) by a November 24 deadline. The Iranian public has chafed under comprehensive sanctions since 2010 and expect President Hassan Rouhani to deliver a nuclear agreement that enables the economy to recover and grow. U.S. and other P5+1 officials stress the economic opportunities for Iran that will result, including the eventual re-opening of Iran's oil and gas sector to foreign investment. Major international firms are poised to re-enter the Iranian market in the event of a nuclear deal, although firms will initially be cautious due to lingering uncertainty.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Middle East

23. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State: An Accident of History

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The following IntelBrief is excerpted from The Soufan Group's recent long-form report on The Islamic State, which takes an in-depth look at the extremist group's operations across Iraq and Syria. From late 2011 up to today, The Islamic State has shown itself both tactically and strategically adept. After years of surviving as a persistently violent criminal/terrorist gang able to mount multiple synchronized attacks in urban areas in Iraq but little more, it achieved unparalleled gains when the collapse of government in northern and eastern Syria allowed it to expand across the border. At the same time, the sectarian approach of then-Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki had made the Sunni minority in Iraq ready to support any group that appeared to have the potential to reverse its increasing marginalization. It's accurate to say the group would still exist-but in nothing like its current form-had only one of those two catastrophes-Syria and Maliki-occurred; that both played out as they did made what has happened seem an almost inevitable accident of history.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

24. TSG IntelBrief: From Bucca to Kobani: The Hybrid Ideology of the Islamic State

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The reshaping of what is now the Islamic State (IS) began among the detainee populations in military prisons such as Camp Bucca in Iraq, where violent extremists and former regime personalities forged mutual interests over years of confinement IS is now a chimera of Ba'athist and takfiri ideologies, with the organizational skills of the former helping channel the motivational fervor of the latter It is more than a marriage of convenience between the two seemingly at-odds groups; the former Ba'athists among the group and the religious ideologues now have visions of a return to Sunni glory that merges Usama bin Ladin with Saddam Hussein While at smaller unit levels there will be conflict between the two halves of the whole-as witnessed in the fighting between IS and the Naqshbandi Army after the fall of Mosul-the former regime officers who are now senior leaders in IS appear fully committed to the ideals and goals of the group, a result of a thorough radicalization that has extended from imprisonment years ago up to now These prison-hardened fighters were so important to IS that they undertook a year-long campaign (2012-2013) called "Breaking the Walls" to free what would prove to be the last pieces needed for expansion.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

25. TSG IntelBrief: The Logic of Foreign Fighters as Suicide Bombers

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: While there is understandable concern that an unknown percentage of foreign fighters fighting for the so-called Islamic State (IS) might return to their home countries intent on continuing the fight, IS appears intent on using them in suicide attacks in both Iraq and Syria IS goes to great length to publicize the foreign fighters who die in suicide attacks, which greatly enhances the group in the eyes of unstable people looking for martyrdom, creating a feedback loop of death A recent statement by IS showed that 80% of the suicide attacks in Iraq between September and early October were committed by foreign fighters; this continues a trend of IS using their foreign fighters in suicide attacks while Iraqi fighters take on the role of traditional soldiers Along with Saudi nationals, who conducted 60% of the suicide attacks referenced above, fighters from North Africa consistently feature prominently in IS suicide attacks, which closely matches the suicide bombing statistics from the 2003 Iraq war, though now there are more suicide operatives from western Europe
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

26. TSG IntelBrief: Lack of Trust Hinders Second Sunni Awakening

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Coalition airstrikes are intended to blunt the momentum of the self-declared Islamic State (IS) and provide time for a popular Sunni uprising that might never happen given the understandable lack of trust among all sides The Sunni Awakening that helped diminish the precursor group to IS in 2006-2009 is the successful outlier in Iraq's history of tragic uprisings; and it will not likely be replicated since the conditions that allowed it to succeed no longer exist To that end, one of the foundational assumptions of the effort to dismantle IS-that the Sunni tribes will soon rise up and oppose IS in a second Awakening-is built on uncertain ground Sunni tribal leaders realize there won't be anything near 2007-levels of support (material, financial, training) if they oppose IS en masse, and after gaining next to nothing politically after the first Awakening, there is no trust in a different outcome for any second Awakening Reports of a failed Sunni uprising in eastern Syria are additional disincentives for both Syrian and Iraqi Sunni populations to fight IS, and additional incentive to wait and see what external factors will emerge to change the status quo.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

27. TSG IntelBrief: Jordan and the War Next Door

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: In neighboring Iraq, over 1,100 Jordanians are believed to be fighting for the so-called Islamic State (IS) according to Jordanian former Prime Minister Maruf al-Bakhit, with another 200 having already died fighting Although that's only 0.0203% of Jordan's 6.4 million population, and enough for serious concern, it's testament to Jordanian society that with the constant fighting next door such a small percentage have taken up arms for IS After the 2005 Amman bombings, al Qaeda in Iraq (the precursor to IS) was widely despised in Jordan; now nine years later, over a thousand Jordanians are fighting for the same group In his October 18, 2014 remarks, Bakhit stated that there were between 2,000-4,000 Jordanians who adhere to the violent takfiri ideology most famously espoused by the late Jordanian Abu Mus'ab al Zarqawi Along with the fear of a radicalized population after a decade of war raging across two of its borders is the fear of what happens next in Iraq and Syria According to Bakhit, a partitioned Iraq is too problematic to work despite its obvious appeal amid the current fighting, with resources unevenly distributed across the country and Baghdad far too mixed for one side to claim.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

28. TSG IntelBrief: Saudi Arabia's Challenges

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: As King Abdullah remains out of sight, worries persist over Saudi Arabia's ability to handle its many domestic and foreign issues The Sunni-Shi'a divide is now seen largely in terms of competition for influence between Saudi Arabia and Iran But it is not just the Sunni-Shi'a tension which impacts the region as Saudi Arabia and Turkey also compete for primacy in the Arab Middle East; the three-way competition has been a key factor in the chronic conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen Common antipathy toward the self-declared Islamic State is the only glue that holds together the US-led coalition at this time: there's no consensus on how to defeat it, what to put in its place, and the role of Iran-issues made more complicated by questions about Saudi Arabia's internal decision process.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islam, Power Politics, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

29. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State and the Divided Opposition

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The self-declared Islamic State (IS)'s strategy of exploiting and exacerbating divisions among its opponents ranks as one of its greatest weapons, and one of the coalition's greatest weaknesses Turkey's airstrikes against the Kurdistan Workers' Party in southeast Turkey are the latest example-and perhaps most damaging in the near-term-of opponents of IS fighting each other instead of the group IS was sustained during its weakest period (2008-2010) in part by exploiting real tensions between various groups-Sunni vs Shi'a, Sunni vs Sunni, Sunni vs Kurd, etc-that prevented an "everybody vs IS" opposition that remains the only way to defeat the group IS will continue to create/exacerbate/leverage the differences between the US and Turkey, Saudi Arabia/UAE and Qatar, the Kurds and various parties, so much so that focus is more on tactically keeping the coalition together and less on strategically strangling IS.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan

30. The Egyptian conundrum

Author:: Rabab el-Mahdi
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The puzzle of Egypt's apparently wild swings from the Mubarak regime to a Muslim Brotherhood government and then back to a military dictatorship have been manipulated to fit the simplistic linear and binary categorical models of democratic transition, with an emphasis on procedural outcomes, when in fact deeper structural issues are at stake. Three challenges explain mainstream Egyptians' choices and the tumultuous path the revolution has been following. The first is the structural economic crisis facing Egypt, coupled with lack of state administrative capacity, which no government has been able to effectively deal with. The second is the repercussions of Egypt's post-colonial history, which as a consequence tends to see the army as the "saviour" and "liberator" of the nation. The third is the failure of alternative groups to to provide solid political alternatives for the majority to rally around against the two reactionary poles and their inability to devise strategies to break loose from and reconstruct the hegemonic discourse . Consequently, international actors who throw their weight behind one reactionary faction or the other based solely on pragmatic considerations of their ability to bring about stability will be backing the wrong horse.
Topic:: Economics, Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

31. The Return of Sunni Foreign Fighters in Iraq

Author:: Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Mosul crisis highlights how ISIS has established a potent cadre of foreign jihadists who freely operate across the rapidly disappearing Iraq-Syria border.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

32. Iranian Proxies Step Up Their Role in Iraq

Author:: Phillip Smyth
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iran's proxy groups have been working closely with Iraqi government forces for some time and will likely become more important to Baghdad in light of recent events.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

33. A Turkish Perspective on Security Issues in the Mediterranean

Author:: Şadi Ergüvenç
Publication Date:: 04-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: The Mediterranean is where the atmosphere of mutual distrust, fear and polarization prevail. Arab Israeli dispute and Turkish Greek differences over the Aegean and Cyprus impede efforts for developing mutual confidence and co operation. Recently, economic and financial crises and the “Arab Risings” have brought along more reasons for concern. Islamophobia and racism versus Islamic jihadism increase the risk of confrontation. Turkey together with Spain appeals for an “Alliance of Civilizations” and exploits its double identity, European and Muslim, through a proactive and multilateral poli cy for finding peaceful solutions to chronic regional solutions. Greece and Greek Cypriot governments should refrain from unilateral attempts to declare maritime borders.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

34. GCC-Maghreb Relations in a Changing Regional Order

Author:: Carolyn Barnett
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: While rulers in the Maghreb and the Gulf have long engaged one an-other, until recently neither region held essential strategic importance for the other. Now, several GCC countries are seeking greater influence around the region, including in the Maghreb. Gulf countries have demonstrated their growing interest in the Maghreb through aid and investment, though aid disbursements have been slow to materialize. Tunisia, Libya, Morocco and Algeria all have delicate relationships with the Gulf that intersect with domestic politics, debates over Islam and authority, concerns about instability, the need for stronger economic growth, and aversion to foreign interference. Promoting constructive GCC-Maghreb relations will be most feasible on the economic front. Successful management of enduring tensions will not ensure political and economic stability, but it will make that stability much more likely.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Political Economy, and Islam
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Arabia, Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia

35. Great Expectations: Iran's New President and the Nuclear Talks

Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In a region that recently has produced virtually nothing but bad news, Hassan Rouhani's 4 August swearing in as Iran's president offers a rare and welcome glimmer of hope. There are still far more questions than answers: about the extent of his authority; his views on his country's nuclear program, with which he long has been associated; and the West's ability to display requisite flexibility and patience. But, although both sides can be expected to show caution, now is the time to put more ambitious proposals on the table, complement the multilateral talks with a bilateral U.S.-Iranian channel and expand the dialogue to encompass regional security issues.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Diplomacy, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

36. The usual surprise? Iran's presidential elections

Author:: Rouzbeh Parsi
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: When the 2009 presidential election in Iran went awry, and its aftermath rocked the authority and legitimacy of the system (nezam), it seemed that nothing could bring the Islamic Republic back to normalcy. Back then, the next presidential elections looked far away and beyond anyone's ability to imagine. Yet, for all other things that can be said about the Islamic Republic, it has insistently and regularly held its presidential polls, wars and political crises notwithstanding. And now, in 2013, we are yet again trying to grapple with the complicated game of politics in Tehran as the official campaign has started. Doubts exist about how many citizens will actually go to the polls this time (it was a remarkable 80 per cent in 2009), but the fact that - on 14 June - presidential elections are to be held in conjunction with local and city council votes may increase the chances of a decent voter turnout.
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Tehran

37. Syria's Sectarian Ripples across the Gulf

Author:: Frederic M. Wehrey
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Like the Iraq war and, to a lesser extent, Lebanon's 2006 war, Syria's internecine conflict has enabled the Gulf's ruling families, media commentators, clerics, parliamentarians, and activists to invoke and amplify Sunni-Shia identities, often for goals that are rooted in local power politics. By-products of the mounting sectarian tension include the fraying of reform cooperation among sects and regions, and pressure on the Gulf's formal political institutions. Traditional and social media have served to amplify the most polarizing voices as well as provide reform activists new means for cross-sectarian communication that circumvent governmental efforts to control or block such activities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

38. Sunni-Shia Relations After the Iraq War

Author:: Fanar Haddad
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: In Iraq, as elsewhere in the Middle East, the social, political, and technological changes of the 21st century are giving birth to a new sectarian landscape. The three most consequential drivers behind the change in sectarian relations have been the political change in Iraq of 2003; the near simultaneous spread of new media and social networking in the Arab world; and – perhaps as a consequence of the first two – the ongoing search for alternatives to familiar but moribund forms of authoritarianism, as demonstrated most dramatically by the “Arab Spring.” 2003 highlighted the uncomfortable fact that there were multiple, indeed contradictory, visions of what it meant to be an Iraqi and by extension what it meant to be a part of the Arab world. New media, social networking, user-generated websites, and private satellite channels helped to make Iraq's accelerated sectarianization contagious. The mainstreaming of sectarian polemics has increased the relevance of religious, doctrinal, and dogmatic differences in views regarding the sectarian “other,” a particularly dangerous development.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

39. Sectarianism in Lebanon and Syria: The Dynamics of Mutual Spill-Over

Author:: Joseph Bahout
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: When the Arab revolutions reached Syria, the Sunni-Shia cleavage in Lebanon was already well in the making. Syria's turmoil only added fuel to an existing fire in Lebanon. Syria's crisis is intensifying Sunni-Shia tensions in Lebanon on two levels, symbolic and identity-based on the one hand, and geopolitical or interest based, on the other hand. The shift toward identity-based or symbolic forms of sectarianism can probably be explained by the existential character the struggle in the Levant is taking, whereby both “communities,” however imagined or over-constructed, are coming to perceive themselves as defending not only their share of resources or power, but their very survival. Lebanon's minority communities – including Christian and Druze – are increasingly anxious about the changing regional environment. Lebanon and Syria must face the difficult equation of sectarian diversity and national unity.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

40. The Syrian Conflict's Impact on Lebanese Politics

Author:: Melani Cammett
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The Syrian crisis has had a negative impact on Lebanon's political scene, including the dynamics among political factions within and across the country's major sectarian communities. The political fragmentation of the Sunni community has implications for the growing trend toward political violence triggered by the Syrian conflict. The rise of challengers and the decline of centralized authority within the Sunni community further increase the probability of violence perpetrated by in-group factions. Despite the pressures from the Syrian conflict, mounting sectarian tensions will not inexorably spark another all-out civil war. If Lebanon does not move past the current political deadlock and stagnation, the spillover from the Syrian crisis stands to undermine the country's stability in the longer term.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

41. Saudi Arabia and the expansion of Salafism

Author:: Laurent Bonnefoy
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Due to the specific history of Saudi Arabia, the export of religious ideologies has long been seen as an important tool of Saudi "soft power". Through a variety of institutions and actors, only some of which can be linked to Wahhabism or even to Islam, interactions between Saudi Arabia and the world are complex and diverse. While mechanisms aiming to export a conservative interpretation of Islam that have been labelled Salafism may be manifest, this policy brief intends to question the efficiency of such mechanisms for the dissemination of religious ideologies. In order to do so, it will first define Salafism. It will then highlight the diversity of this concept, in particular when it comes to its relations with the Saudi monarchy. Finally, it will conclude by highlighting some changes triggered by the "Arab Spring" uprisings that affect the relationship among Salafi movements in the Middle East and Saudi Arabia.
Topic:: Islam, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:: Middle East and Saudi Arabia

42. Arab Spring à l'algérienne

Author:: Rachid Tlemçani and Derek Lutterbeck
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Even though many of the socioeconomic conditions that have driven the popular Arab Spring uprisings and toppled several regimes across the Middle East have been present in Algeria as well, the Algerian regime has thus far been able to weather the winds of change. This policy brief takes a closer look at the "Algerian exception" by examining the protest movement in Algeria and why it has been more limited than elsewhere, as well as recent political "reforms" adopted in response to the protests. It argues that in addition to the experiences of the bloody decade of the 1990s, a number of factors account for the more limited protest movement in Algeria, such as the regime's larger spending power and its experience in dealing with large-scale protests. While the Algerian regime has introduced reforms over the last two years, these have been mainly cosmetic, largely consolidating the political status quo. The policy brief also briefly discusses the threat of Islamist terrorism in the Sahel region, with particular reference to the recent In Amenas hostage crisis in Algeria. As for Algeria's future evolution and prospects for political reform, fundamental change seems unlikely, at least in the short to medium term.
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

43. Saudi Arabia's domestic sectarian politics

Author:: Madawi al-Rasheed
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The Saudi regime has a vested interest in the Saudi public remaining fragmented and unable to bridge the Sunni-Shia sectarian divide. Both Shia and Sunnis in Saudi Arabia have been invigorated by the ongoing Arab uprisings, and in their own regions have staged minor protests demanding similar rights. However, the regime's entrenched sectarian propaganda has succeeded in isolating the Shia and delaying a confrontation with Sunni Islamists. In the short term this may be a successful strategy, but in the long term it may fail to contain the frustration of Saudis who want serious political reform.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Saudi Arabia

44. Yemen's domestic and regional politics

Author:: Bernard Haykel
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Yemen is politically fragmented by three decades of misrule. Many political actors and constituencies oppose the Salih legacy and they need to be included in any future political framework if the country is to become stable. The main regional actor is Saudi Arabia, whereas the U.S. remains the principal hegemon in the region. Saudi Arabia's policy towards Yemen is in flux, whereas the U.S. is too narrowly focused on the threat posed by al-Qaeda. Unless the U.S. and the Saudis change their policies, Yemen will not develop a strong central government.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Corruption, Islam, Armed Struggle, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

45. Turkish and Iranian interests and policies in the South Caucasus

Author:: Evanthia Balla
Publication Date:: 04-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The South Caucasus, situated as it is at the crossroads of Eurasia's major energy and transport corridors, continues to play a vital role in the world's security affairs. After the end of the cold war the South Caucasus emerged as a key region in the geopolitical contest among regional and global powers. The South Caucasus states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are constantly performing a balancing act in their relations with the U.S., Russia, Turkey and Iran. Armenia has developed strong political and economic ties with Iran in order to counter the Turkish-Azerbaijani axis. Azerbaijan seeks to reinforce its links with the West, especially the U.S., as its main extraregional source of diplomatic and economic support, while it remains cautious towards both Russian and Iranian ambitions in the region. Especially after the 2008 war with Russia and the loss of its provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgia has reinforced its links to Western powers and structures while strengthening its ties with Turkey. Both Turkey and Iran are trying to increase their influence in the region, while promoting their national interests in the international arena.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Islam, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Turkey, and Middle East

46. How to Ensure that the U.S. Drone Program does not Undermine Human Rights

Publication Date:: 04-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Human Rights First
Abstract:: The Obama Administration has dramatically escalated targeted killing by drones as a central feature of its counterterrorism response. Over the past two years, the administration has begun to reveal more about the targeted killing program, including in a leaked Department of Justice White paper on targeted killing and in public remarks by several senior officials. While this information is welcome, it does not fully address our concerns.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Science and Technology, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: United States, South Asia, and Middle East

47. "No Point in Fighting Them Since They Themselves are Fighting Each Other?

Author:: Dario Cristiani and Kacper Rękawek
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Just before another anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks, Al Qaeda (AQ) turned 25. Although after more than a decade of the war on terrorism the so called Al Qaeda Central is far from thriving operationally, it still advises and inspires jihadists around the world. Moreover, in the aftermath of the Arab Spring AQ Central affiliates and allies have re-constituted themselves and are growing in various parts of Northern Africa and the Middle East. Nonetheless, de-centralisation of the world's counter-terrorism effort, with the focus not on AQ Central but on its "subordinates," may in the longer term lead to a serious disruption of the totality of the organisation, already riddled with internal contradictions.
Topic:: Islam and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

48. The Geopolitics of the Sunni-Shi'i Divide in the Middle East

Author:: Samuel Helfont
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: In 2006, during the heart of the Global War on Terrorism, a New York Times reporter went to Washington in an attempt to ascertain the extent that American officials understood the ideologies underpinning Islamist terrorism. The reporter began with a simple question: could senior counterterrorism officials identify which groups were Sunnis and which were Shi'is? Remarkably senior officials and lawmakers – including the Chief of the F.B.I.‟s national security branch, and members of the U.S. House of Representatives‟ committees on intelligence and counter terrorism – had “no clue” whether actors such as Iran, Hezbollah, or al-Qaida were Sunnis or Shi„is. A number of questions emerged from this encounter. First, who are the Sunnis and Shi„is? Second, where are they located? And, finally, does it matter?
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Middle East

49. The Political Kaleidoscope Turns Again in Crisis-Challenged Iran: 2013 Elections

Author:: Barbara Slavin and Yasmin Alem
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Iran has never had what the West would regard as free, fair, and competitive elections. Some would point to the brief periods following the 1906 Constitutional Revolution and between the end of World War II and 1953, when a CIA-backed coup re-installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, as possible exceptions to this rule. The upcoming presidential elections this June will be no such exception, with candidates restricted to eight proven loyalists to the regime. Nevertheless, the vote will be an important barometer of the stability and durability of an embattled regime that is increasingly unpopular domestically and isolated internationally. The elections will also produce a new turn of the kaleidoscope within Iran's shrinking political elite, as existing factions break apart and regroup. The next president is likely to be more moderate in tone, if not in policy, and more competent and less divisive than the outgoing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This could have important implications not just for the country's domestic course but for Iran's confrontation with the United States and the international community over the nuclear question.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

50. The advent of 'Islamic' democracy in MENA

Author:: Khalil al-Anani
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The Arab Spring has reshaped the political landscape in MENA region. According to this new EuroMeSCo Brief by professor Khalil al-Anani, Middle Eastern and North African politics are now marked by the rise of Islamist parties either from the far right (Salafis and ex-jihadis), the center (the Musltim Brothers in Egypt) and the progressive and liberal Islamists in Tunis and Morocco. Khalil al-Anani highlights that Islamists were alienated under the despotic regimes and that after the Arab Spring they have significantly transformed its ideology, strategies and rhetoric, entering the political game. This transformation takes place in an increasingly competitive and fragmented political scene in which some Islamist parties have tended to adopt more pragmatic programs whereas others are still preoccupied with identity politics. Regarding foreign policy, an emerging commonality among Islamists can be identified: to seek a balanced relationship with western countries based on mutual respect and interests. Professor Khalil al-Anani concludes that Islamists will not necessarily become liberal but that they will have to succumb to the increasing demands of personal and public freedoms around the Arab world.
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Middle East

51. 2011— A Testing Year for Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:: Özdem Sanberk
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:: 2011 was undoubtedly a year that witnessed the beginning of grand transformations which will continue in the years ahead. The popular movements under the name of the Arab Spring started in Tunisia and spread quickly to the rest of the region, sparking the process of political transformation. In another part of the world, the economic crisis which began in Greece and then engulfed the whole eurozone took the European Union to a difficult test regarding its future. Both events, one lying to the south of Turkey and the other to its west, interact directly with our country and therefore its zone of interest. Ankara inevitably stands in the epicenter of these two transformations of which the effects will certainly continue for a long period. Consequently, rising as a stable focus of power with its growing economy and its expanding democracy, Turkey has tried to respond to historically important developments throughout the year. In light of these realities and developments, this study will focus on the performance of Turkish foreign policy with regard to global and regional transformations which took place during 2011.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Diplomacy, and Islam
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia

52. The Three Versions of Al Qaeda: A Primer

Author:: Clint Watts
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Al Qaeda today only slightly resembles the al Qaeda of yesteryear. Al Qaeda operatives or "al Qaeda-like" organizations stretch throughout North Africa, across the Middle East and into South Asia. This disparate string of organizations hosts a handful of al Qaeda's original Afghanistan and Pakistan veterans but mostly consist of newcomers inspired by al Qaeda's message -- disenfranchised young men seeking an adventurous fight in the wake of a tumultuous Arab Spring. Al Qaeda, or more appropriately jihadism pursued under al Qaeda's banner, has morphed in several waves over the course of more than two decades.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Canada, and Arabia

53. The Uprisings and the Future of North Africa and the Middle East: The Vienna Seminar 2012

Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: "Seldom in the history of the Middle East and North Africa have so many changes taken place so dramatically, so quickly, and at the same time." This observation, made by a participant at the International Peace Institute's 2012 Vienna Seminar, helps explain the world's current focus on the uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East. The purpose of the forty-second annual Vienna Seminar was to make sense of these changes and see what steps can be taken to encourage the positive trends, and to promote peace and security in the region.
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Tunisia, and Vienna

54. Beyond Ceasefire: Ending the blockade of Gaza

Author:: Martin Hartberg
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The ceasefire agreed between the Government of Israel and Hamas on 21 November 2012, following the recent military escalation in Gaza and southern Israel, provides an unprecedented opportunity to end the cycle of violence that has affected too many innocent Israeli and Palestinian civilians. In the ceasefire understanding, the parties agreed to negotiate 'opening the crossings' into the Gaza Strip and to put an end to 'restricting residents' free movement and targeting residents in border areas'. It is therefore also a unique chance to once and for all lift the Israeli blockade on Gaza, which has had a devastating impact on the lives and well-being of Gaza's civilian population and on Palestinian development.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Islam, War, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

55. Arab Muslim women after the uprisings: the encounter between the liberalisation of Islamist politics and the feminisation of Islamic interpretation

Author:: Aitemad Muhanna
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Women's participation in the Arab uprisings has been inspired by the expansion of an Islamist-based model of Arab women's activism and a gradual shrinking of secular liberal women's activism. The uprisings have provided outcomes that prove the possibility of combining Islam with democracy through the political success of Islamist parties in the post-uprisings era, like in Tunisia and Egypt. Although this new de facto political map of the region has largely frightened liberal women, the victory of moderate Islamist voices may also be promising, especially when they are in a position to provide a state governance model. The determining factor in combining Islam with democracy is the willingness of the two major players – Islamist parties and the international community – to ensure that the main debatable issues – religion, gender and human rights – are not discriminated against in the name of either religion or Western democracy. However, the actual practice and outcomes of moderate Islamist discourse remains under experimentation, and it is a space for Islamist and secular women's and human rights organisations to co-operate, monitor, negotiate and strategise, to ensure that gender issues are engaged in policy discussions and formulations as a substantial issue for real democratisation.
Topic:: Democratization, Gender Issues, and Islam
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

56. Youth integration and job creation in the Middle East

Author:: Jad Chaaban
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The Middle East and North African region is currently faced with one of the toughest socioeconomic challenges in its modern history: a "youth bulge" of almost 100 million young people, of which a quarter are unemployed. Between 40 and 50 million new jobs need to be created in the region's countries over the next decade, and this implies that governments in the region should embark on a labour-intensive and job-creating growth trajectory. Special attention should be given to reducing the unemployment and emigration of skilled youth, and to integrating young women into the labour market. Policies that tackle the institutional and structural impediments to meaningful job creation should be pursued, together with public interventions in social protection and housing programmes that would reduce youth's social exclusion in the region.
Topic:: Demographics, Gender Issues, Islam, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

57. Case Study: Women's Rights in Egypt

Author:: Marleen Nolten
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The 25th of January 2011 uprising in Egypt called for freedom, dignity and social justice. The uprising was full of opportunities and challenges for Egyptian men and women who have been deprived of their political, social and economic rights. Hence, the revolution has given women a sense of freedom and empowerment, and seemed like a perfect opportunity to claim their rights. However, while many groups, including women, overcame their fear to speak out against violations of their basic rights, the changed power relations threatened to ignore women's rights or even reverse gains that were won in the past. Oxfam partners in Egypt have increased their efforts during the last year to collectively formulate priority demands on women's rights and bring these demands to the forefront.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Human Rights, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

58. On the Record: Mourning Usama bin Laden

Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The following is a sampling of reactions from various Islamist leaders, commentators, and organizations following the death of Usama bin Laden.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

59. Regional Dynamics of the Syrian Uprising: The Impact on Lebanon and Hezbollah

Author:: Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:: 10-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Lebanese society is starkly divided on Syria, but all sides fear the country's potential descent into a sectarian civil war and seek to insulate Lebanon from its fallout. Lebanon's key political actors hold vastly different views on their definitions of interests, threat perceptions and desirable outcomes in Syria. Lebanon has already witnessed some negative Syrian spillover. Going forward, key concerns will center on both directed threats and uncontrolled fallout from worsening instability inside Syria. Lebanon's ability to influence the conflict dynamics inside Syria is limited.
Topic:: Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

60. The Foreign Fighter Phenomenon: Islam and Transnational Militancy

Author:: Thomas Hegghammer
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: A salient feature of armed conflict in the Muslim world since 1980 has been the involvement of so-called foreign fighters. These foreign fighters are unpaid combatants with no apparent link to the conflict other than religious affinity with the Muslim side. Since 1980, between 10,000 and 30,000 such fighters have inserted themselves into conflicts from Bosnia in the west to the Philippines in the east.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Middle East, Philippines, and Arabia

61. "Strategically Lonely" Iran Exploits Opportunities for Regional Influence

Author:: Barbara Slavin
Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Over the past three decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has shown remarkable endurance. It has survived an eight-year war with Iraq, mounting economic sanctions, and serious domestic unrest. It has benefited from the missteps of adversaries, which have created opportunities for Iran to expand ties to militant movements in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories, and to increase its influence in Afghanistan. Recent uprisings against Arab governments long allied with Washington have encouraged the Iranian government to portray itself as the fulcrum of a "new" anti-Western Middle East.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, Palestine, and Lebanon

62. Attacking Iran: Lessons from the Iran-Iraq War

Author:: Annie Tracy Samuel
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: This policy brief seeks to contribute to and inform the debate concerning a possible attack by the United States and/or Israel on Iranian nuclear and military facilities. The presumed aim of such an attack would be to weaken the Islamic Republic, particularly by hindering its ability to build a nuclear weapon. However, the history of the Iraqi invasion of Iran in September 1980 calls into question the contention that an attack will weaken the regime in Tehran. This policy brief examines Iran's reactions to the Iraqi invasion in order to shed light on Iran's possible reactions to a U.S. or Israeli attack. It will assess how the Iranian people responded to the invasion and its effects on Iranian politics and the position of the new regime. It will also explore the nature of the policies adopted by the Islamic Republic in waging the Iran-Iraq War that carried on for eight years after the Iraqi invasion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

63. Setback for Iran's Opposition: Khamenei's Hardline Reinforced

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A few hours after the official demonstration marking the February 11 anniversary of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated, "Was the presence of tens of millions of motivated and aware people in the festival of the thirty-first anniversary of revolution enough to awaken [to their mistakes] the internal enemies and deceived individuals who sometimes hypocritically speak of 'the people'?" Khamenei had spent months worrying that the opposition Green Movement would hijack the anniversary. Yesterday, he seemed to regain his self-confidence by proving that he could manage Tehran's streets. In light of this development, how will the Supreme Leader deal with both Iran's political crisis and the nuclear dossier?
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

64. Khamenei and the Politics of Indecision

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: February 11, the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, is the most important official holiday in Iran. The public faces of the opposition Green Movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi, have called for street demonstrations to mark the occasion. Meanwhile, government officials at every level have warned against such protests, threatening tough action against any participants. In this tense atmosphere, what are the prospects that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will agree to political compromise?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Islam
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

65. Serious Play: War Games Explore Options on Iran

Author:: Jeffrey White and Loring White
Publication Date:: 02-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: What if Iran's hardline leadership emerges from the current confrontations at home strengthened and emboldened? If so, the nuclear issue will be back with a vengeance. And three recent war games focused on the Iranian nuclear weapons issue suggest that the prospects for halting the regime's progress toward nuclear weapons are not good.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

66. Think twice before engaging in Yemen

Author:: Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Yemen has caught the eye of the international community above all because it has been portrayed as a hotbed of radicalisation and a training ground for al-Qaeda. As a state, Yemen is broadly considered to be both fragile and on the brink of failure. This Policy Brief argues that for a variety of reasons – largely relating to the political system and dynamics within the country – support from Europe and North America will have limited effect. There are limited, if any, technical solutions to the challenges that confront the country; only political ones. International actors from outside the regional context must therefore think twice before engaging and, above all, have a good understanding of the political system that they will be engaging with.
Topic:: International Relations and Islam
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

67. Renewed Violence against Egypt's Coptic Christians

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 6 -- Christmas Eve according to the Eastern Orthodox calendar -- six Coptic Christians and a policeman were killed in a drive-by shooting while exiting church in Naga Hammadi, Upper Egypt. The attack, which came in retaliation to an alleged rape of a twelve-year-old Muslim girl by a Christian man, was the largest assault on Copts in Egypt since a January 2000 massacre left twenty dead in Sohag. The days since the shooting have been marked by violent clashes and the burning of Christian and Muslim property. These developments have unfolded against the background of increased political pressure on Islamists -- evoking the 1990s, when the killing of Copts by Islamist militants was a routine occurrence and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) was banned from political participation. Thus, while Naga Hammadi might be an isolated incident, it could also presage the return of Egypt's Islamists to the bloody sectarian attacks of the 1990s.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

68. Al-Qaeda in the West Bank and Gaza

Author:: Bruce Riedel and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian terrorist groups have long operated out of the West Bank and Gaza. What is new is that some radicalized Palestinians are choosing to engage in violence not through established domestic groups such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, but rather through groups that aspire to be part of al-Qaeda's global jihad. While most Palestinian terrorist organizations are nationalist -- or, in the case of Hamas, Islamist-nationalist -- and limit their operations to the Israeli-Palestinian front, the Salafi-Jihadi ideology professed by these new groups offers a broader agenda, one based not on a particular nationality but instead on the Muslim umma (nation).
Topic:: Islam and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Gaza

69. Fighting the Ideological Battle: The Missing Link in America's Effort to Counter Violent Extremism

Author:: J. Scott Carpenter, Matthew Levitt, and Juan Zarate
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Many of the functional and structural recommendations of the Institute's March 2009 bipartisan task force have since been adopted by the Obama administration, and remarkable progress has been made in certain areas. Nevertheless, more must be done to combat radical Islamism, particularly given the recent acceleration of homegrown radicalization. Proving that ideology recognizes no borders, the global threat of violent Islamism has come home. This new study recognizes the important steps the Obama administration has taken to address violent extremism and suggests ways to advance counterradicalization efforts even further.
Topic:: Islam and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

70. Status Check on the Struggle against Global Terrorism

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The State Department's recently released Country Reports on Terrorism 2009 (CRT 2009) reveals several important trends in the evolution of global terrorism. The good news is that al-Qaeda is facing significant pressure, even as the organization and its affiliates and followers retain the intent and capability to carry out attacks. What remains to be seen is if the dispersion of the global jihadist threat from the heart of the Middle East to South Asia and Africa foreshadows organizational decline or revival for al-Qaeda itself and the radical jihadist ideology it espouses. How governments and civil society alike organize to contend with the changing threat will be central to this determination. The bad news is that governments and civil society remain woefully ineffective at reducing the spread and appeal of radical Islamist extremism.
Topic:: Government, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Israel

71. Inside Iran's Revolutionary Guard: A Defector Speaks

Author:: David B. Crist and Reza Kahlili
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although Iran was a country of great strategic importance at the time of the Islamic Revolution, the United States had few sources of information about what was occurring there, especially after the U.S. embassy was seized and official relations ended. Accordingly, Iran became an early priority for former CIA director William Casey in the 1980s. Information provided by Iranian insiders such as Reza Kahlili became critically important in this regard.
Topic:: Intelligence, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

72. Iran's Youth: Agents of Change

Author:: Tara Nesvaderani
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest longterm threats to the current form of theocratic rule. Young activists have heavily influenced the Islamic Republic's political agenda over the past 13 years. After the 2009 presidential election, youth and women were the two biggest blocs behind the region's first sustained “people power” movement for democratic change, creating a new political model in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic has forcibly regained control over the most rebellious sector of society through mass detentions of young activists, expulsions from universities and widening the powers of its own young paramilitary forces. Nevertheless, the demands from young people have not changed over the past year, and their anger is boiling just beneath the surface. The regime also remains vulnerable because it has failed to address basic socioeconomic problems among youth. The impact of Iran's youth on the political, economic and social agenda of the country over the next 25 years is important for U.S. policymakers to consider when facing complex decisions in balancing Iran's nuclear program and its internal political turmoil.
Topic:: Islam, Politics, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

73. Deciphering Egypt's Transition: What do Egypt's botched elections mean for the EU?

Author:: Timo Behr
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Egypt has arrived at a crossroads. After almost three decades in power, the Mubarak era is coming to an end. With President Hosni Mubarak's health reportedly deteriorating, the stage is set for an uncertain transition. Egypt's botched parliamentary elections have been the first act in this succession drama, paving the way for next year's decisive presidential elections. As the Middle East's traditional powerhouse, the outcome of this transition process is going to have important repercussions that will be felt far beyond Egypt's borders.
Topic:: Democratization, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

74. Palestine and Israel: Time for Plan B

Author:: Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The international effort to achieve a two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict has come to a dead end, at least for the present. Things can—and might well—get worse unless the United States and other outside actors couple a realistic view of the present with a serious effort to push for a more promising future. The first step in a new diplomatic approach must be to establish a cease-fire that builds on the common interest of both Israel and Hamas to avoid fighting in the short term. A new cease-fire should be clear and perhaps even written; mediators (whether Arab or European) must be willing to make an agreement more attractive to both sides to sustain (Hamas can be enticed by some opening of the border with Egypt; Israel will demand serious efforts against the supply of arms to Hamas). The second step must be an armistice that would offer each side what they crave for the present—Israel would get quiet and a limit on arms to Hamas; Palestinians would get open borders, a freeze on settlements, and an opportunity to rebuild their shattered institutions. Such an armistice must go beyond a one-year cease-fire to become something sustainable for at least five to ten years. Finally, the calm provided by the armistice must be used to rebuild Palestinian institutions and force Palestinians and Israelis to confront rather than avoid the choices before them.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Peace Studies, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Egypt

75. Al Jazeera and Qatar: The Muslim Brothers' Dark Empire?

Author:: Zvi Mazel
Publication Date:: 05-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: There has been a significant presence of the Muslim Brothers (also known as the Muslim Brotherhood) in Qatar since the second half of the twentieth century. The first wave came from Egypt in 1954 after Nasser had smashed their organization. The next wave came from Syria in 1982 after Hafez el-Assad bombed their stronghold in Hama. The last group arrived after September 11, 2001 - from Saudi Arabia. In 1995, the present Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani, deposed his father in a bloodless palace coup. One of his first steps was to establish the Al Jazeera satellite channel in 1996, which is the most viewed station in the Arab world with an estimated audience of some 60 million. There was never any doubt about the network's political orientation. Al Jazeera immediately launched scathing attacks on Israel during the Second Intifada and went on to incendiary broadcasts against the United States at the time of the Afghanistan conflict and over Iraq. It was later revealed to be in contact with bin Laden, and was the medium of choice for the video and audio cassettes of bin Laden and his men. During the U.S. war in Iraq, the Americans accused the station of being pro-Saddam, and after the war, of presenting the terrorist groups active in the country in a positive light. One of its reporters stationed in Baghdad always seemed to arrive suspiciously quickly, with his camera, at the site of terror attacks. During the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Al Jazeera behaved as a Hizbullah spokesman. During the Gaza war, a senior Al Jazeera reporter stationed himself at Shifa Hospital, from where he broadcast a stream of carefully selected horror pictures. The Egyptian Maamun Fendi wrote in Asharq Alawsat that some 50 percent of the network's personnel belong to the Muslim Brothers. He believes that Qatar, by embracing the Brothers while hosting American bases, has found the perfect formula against retaliation by Arab leaders and attacks by Islamic extremists. Al Jazeera has become a weapon in the hands of an ambitious emir who may be driven by the Muslim Brothers and who is threatening the stability of the Middle East. With the Muslim Brothers increasingly aligned in recent years with Iran, by repeatedly attacking the Sunni Arab regimes and inciting against them, Al Jazeera is serving as an important instrument for Tehran and its effort to undermine their internal stability.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Mass Media
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

76. The Role of Radical Islamic Groups in Israel: Implications for Israeli-Arab Coexistence

Author:: Mordechai Kedar
Publication Date:: 03-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: Many in the Arab world felt deep humiliation due to George W. Bush. The Islamic view is that Islam came to the world to replace Judaism and Christianity, and all of the sudden comes a religious Christian president and occupies Iraq, the capital of the Islamic Abbasid Caliphate and the beating heart of Arab history. So when Bush left office, this was viewed as a victory for Allah over the modern Crusaders. The core question is to whom does this country belong? According to the Arab narrative, this has been an Arab Islamic state since the days of Omar, the caliph who conquered the country in the seventh century. According to Islamic tradition, he declared that the country between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River is waqf land, meaning it belongs forever to Muslims all over the world, and no one else could ever have it According to Islam, land can only go one way, to become Islamic, and it can never go the other way, just like Spain, Sicily, and parts of the Balkans, which at different stages of history were lands of Islam. This is why Hamas and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood cannot even begin to consider recognizing the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state on the land of Palestine. At the same time, Jews feel that this country belongs to them. From the Jewish perspective, this country was populated by Jews and two Jewish kingdoms were here until 1900 years ago. We Jews were expelled with no justification and we came back to our country. This is what gives justification to the Jews having our state here and not in Uganda, Argentina or Birobijan. It even appears in the Koran that this country had been given to the Jews. In 2006 a document approved by the Committee of Arab Local Authorities in Israel - entitled: "The Future Vision of the Palestinian Arabs in Israel and their Relations with the State" - opened with the statement: "Israel is the outcome of a colonialist action which was initiated by the Jewish-Zionist elites in Europe and in the West." To call Israel a colonialist state means a total denial of Jewish history, and echoes the Islamic approach to Jewish history. According to this approach, since Islam came to the world in the year 622 CE with the hijra of Mohammed from Mecca to Medina, all of history before that time lost any meaning or significance.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

77. The Saudi Connection to the Mumbai Massacres: Strategic Implications for Israel

Author:: Jonathan Fighel
Publication Date:: 02-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: The Mumbai attacks have been linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba and radical Islamic groups in Kashmir generally. Yet it would be a mistake to see Lashkar only as a local organization with only a local agenda. Saudi Arabia has contributed very much to what Lashkar-e-Taiba looks like, how it thinks, its motivation, ideology, and funding. Saudi Arabia presents itself as the protector and the spearhead of the defense of Muslims around the world against what they define as the Western cultural attack. The Saudis are very committed to recruiting, funding, and funneling ideology to embattled Muslim minorities, and use Muslim charities as their tool to implement this policy. The Saudi methodology is to take advantage of a humanitarian crisis to get a foot in the door. Who could be against assisting widows and orphans and setting up schools and clinics? Some of the money is indeed funneled to support terrorism - families of suicide bombers. The notion of global Islam has also penetrated to Gaza and exists under the umbrella of Hamas, which is enabling a revival of global jihadi organizations there such as Jaish al-Islam and others. This phenomenon is radicalizing the already radicalized society in Gaza. Hamas could agree to a hudna (calm) for fifty years, but there will be no recognition of Israel or a cessation of the struggle against it. If Hamas was ready to act pragmatically, it would no longer be Hamas. And then the frustrated factions within Hamas would break off and join up with the radical global jihadi organizations in Gaza.
Topic:: Political Violence, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Arab Countries, and Mumbai

78. The George Mitchell Appointment: The Tactics of "Symmetrical Negotiations" May Not Work in "Asymmetrical Conflicts"

Author:: Lenny Ben-David
Publication Date:: 01-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: The appointment of former Senator George J. Mitchell as Middle East envoy was warmly received in Washington, Jerusalem, and Ramallah. Yet, the Middle East that Mitchell will confront today is much changed from the one he wrestled with eight years ago as chairman of the 2001 Sharm el-Sheikh Fact-Finding Committee, which was created to investigate the outbreak of the Second Intifada. The 2001 Mitchell Report was seen as an "even-handed" document, reflecting President Clinton's directive to "strive to steer clear of...finger-pointing. As a result, the committee attempted - even at the risk of straining credibility - to split the blame for the crisis. The Mitchell Committee could not ignore Palestinian terrorism and the Palestinian use of civilians as human shields. Israel's transgression - and there had to be one to balance Palestinian sins - was its settlement activity. The committee recommended a "freeze [of] all settlement activity, including the 'natural growth' of existing settlements." Israelis objected that the freeze - never mandated in the interim stages of the Oslo Accords - would serve to reward the Palestinians' terrorism. The committee was appointed before the 9/11 al-Qaeda attack. Its report came prior to the capture of two weapons-laden ships bound for Gaza - the Santorini in May 2001 and the Karine A in January 2002 - and prior to President Bush's 2004 recognition of "new realities on the ground [in the territories], including already existing major Israeli populations centers." Bush continued: "[I]t is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949." The 2001 Mitchell Report was issued years before Hamas' coup in Gaza. Hamas remains dedicated to Israel's destruction. Its alliance with Iran and its affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood mark Hamas as an enemy of moderate Arab regimes. Hamas may yet prove to be a fatal flaw to Mitchell's axiom that "there is no such thing as a conflict that can't be ended."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Islam
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

79. What's Behind Western Condemnation of Israel's War Against Hamas?

Author:: Efraim Karsh
Publication Date:: 01-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: With a unanimity that has become all too familiar, politicians, the media, NGOs, and church leaders across the globe took their cue to denounce Israel's legitimate act of self-defense against one of the world's most extreme terror organizations. This chorus of disapproval is in stark contrast to the utter indifference to far bloodier conflicts that have been going on around the world. Why do citizens in democracies enthusiastically embrace a radical Islamist group that not only seeks the destruction of a fellow democracy but is overtly committed to the substitution of a world-wide Islamic caliphate for the existing international order? Decades of mistreatment of the Palestinians by the Arab states have gone virtually unnoticed. Only when they interact with Israel do the Palestinians win the world's attention. The fact that international coverage of the Arab-Israeli conflict has invariably reflected a degree of intensity and emotional involvement well beyond the normal level to be expected of impartial observers would seem to suggest that it is a manifestation of longstanding prejudice that has been brought out into the open by the conflict. The Palestinians are but the latest lightning rod unleashed against the Jews, their supposed victimization reaffirming the millenarian demonization of the Jews in general, and the medieval blood libel - that Jews delight in the blood of others.
Topic:: Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

80. Inside Iranian Politics and Nuclear Strategy: A G-20 Briefing

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji and Stephen P. Rosen
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Studying the behavior of states with nuclear weapons may give some insight into what Iran would do if it acquires nuclear weapons capabilities. Every state that has nuclear weapons, with the exception of India, has shared the technology and the know-how -- not the weapons -- with other states: the United States shared technology with Great Britain and then, in the 1950s, provided nuclear weapons for German fighter jets on German bases flown by German pilots; Israel and France shared nuclear energy technology in the 1960s;China assisted Pakistan; North Korea aided Syria; and Pakistan assisted many countries through the A. Q.Khan network. In short, states transfer nuclear technology because it is easy to accomplish, difficult to track, and returns very high rewards.
Topic:: Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and North Korea

81. Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan: Hamas in Ascendance

Author:: Hassan Barari
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In early September, three senior leaders of Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood (MB) resigned from the organization's executive bureau after it voted to dissolve the MB political department -- one of the few remaining components of the organization controlled by moderates. The resignations were a protest against not only the executive bureau's decision, but also the MB's increasingly close affiliation with Hamas. Today, the Jordanian MB is facing an unprecedented internal crisis, pitting the traditional moderate East Bank leadership -- Jordanians who are not originally Palestinian -- against the powerful pro-Hamas Palestinian-led element. Lately, these divisions have been aggravated by Hamas political bureau head Khaled Mashal's apparent efforts to exploit the shifting balance of power within the MB to further his own organization's agenda in Amman. Ironically, Jordanian authorities -- who have long prided themselves on managing the Islamist issue -- have done little to stem the tide.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Islam, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

82. Breaking Stalemates on Iran and Syria at the IAEA

Author:: Gregory Schulte
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Mohamed ElBaradei will end his twelve years as director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in November. Absent a last-minute breakthrough, ElBaradei will leave incomplete the critical safeguards investigations of Iran and Syria. Earlier this month, ElBaradei reported to the IAEA Board of Governors little or no progress on either the six-year probe of Iran's nuclear activities or the more recent probe of Syria's clandestine cooperation with North Korea. ElBaradei reported that Tehran continues to enrich uranium, in violation of IAEA and UN Security Council requirements, and despite any obvious domestic energy demand. Tehran also continues to deny to IAEA inspectors access to information, people, and sites to verify the "peaceful" nature of Iran's nuclear activities.
Topic:: Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North Korea, Arab Countries, and Syria

83. Changing Conventional Military Balance in the Gulf

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a September 7 interview with al-Jazeera, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates stated, "The more that our Arab friends and allies can strengthen their security capabilities, the more they can strengthen their cooperation, both with each other and with us. I think this sends the signal to the Iranians that the path they are on is not going to advance Iranian security, but in fact could weaken it." His comments reflect a dawning realization in the face a growing Iranian nuclear threat: that a new conventional military balance is slowly emerging in the Persian Gulf.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

84. 'How This Ends': Iraq's Uncertain Path toward National Reconciliation

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt and Ahmed Ali
Publication Date:: 07-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: During Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's visit to Washington next week, the Obama administration will likely seek to reinvigorate that country's flagging reconciliation process as part of ongoing efforts to establish a stable political order in Iraq. Progress, however, continues to be hindered by ongoing violence, deep-seated suspicions, and partisan politics, raising questions about the ultimate prospects for national reconciliation.
Topic:: Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

85. Who Will Be the Next King of Saudi Arabia... And Does It Matter?

Author:: Simon Henderson and Robert Jordan
Publication Date:: 07-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 13, 2009, Ambassador Robert Jordan and Simon Henderson addressed a special Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute to discuss succession in Saudi Arabia and the challenges it could pose for the United States. Simon Henderson is the Baker fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute. His most recent Policy Focus, After King Abdullah: Succession in Saudi Arabia, will be released this month. Robert Jordan is a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, where he was posted shortly after the September 11 terror attacks.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Islam, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

86. Sudan: Preventing Implosion

Publication Date:: 12-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Sudan is sliding towards violent breakup. The main mechanisms to end conflicts between the central government and the peripheries – the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), the Darfur Peace Agreement and the East Sudan Peace Agreement – all suffer from lack of implementation, largely due to the intransigence of the National Congress Party (NCP). Less than thirteen months remain to ensure that national elections and the South Sudan self-determination referendum lead to democratic transformation and resolution of all the country's conflicts. Unless the international community, notably the U.S., the UN, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council and the Horn of Africa Inter-Government Authority on Development (IGAD), cooperate to support both CPA implementation and vital additional negotiations, return to North-South war and escalation of conflict in Darfur are likely.
Topic:: Political Violence, Islam, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, Middle East, and South Sudan

87. Middle East Democracy Promotion Is Not a One-way Street

Author:: Marina Ottaway
Publication Date:: 11-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The U.S. administration is under pressure to revive democracy promotion efforts in the Middle East, but momentum toward political reform has stalled in most of the region. Opposition parties are at low ebb, and governments are more firmly in control than ever. While new forms of activism, such as labor protests and a growing volume of blogging critical of government and opposition parties have become widespread, they have yet to prove effective as means of influencing leaders to change long-standing policies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Islam
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

88. Islam vs. Iran's 'Islamic Republic'

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 12-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A new opportunity is now emerging for the "Green Movement" in Iran to demonstrate opposition to the Islamic Republic and the manipulated presidential election results earlier this year. Friday, December 18, marks the beginning of the months of Muharram and Safar in the Islamic lunar calendar. For the regime in Tehran, gaining control of the streets has become gradually more difficult since the Green Movement turned all officially sanctioned political ceremonies into opportunities to wage protests against the Islamic Republic. The coming two months, however, represent the first time that a religious opportunity has come up.
Topic:: Islam
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

89. PolicyWatch #1426: The Problems of Engaging with Iran's Supreme Leader

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad's congratulatory letter to U.S. president-elect Barack Obama was the first of its kind in the history of the Islamic Republic. In his letter, Ahmadinezhad expressed his hope for fundamental change in U.S. domestic and foreign policies. Although some observers speculate that the letter suggests a transformation in the mindset of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, about normalizing relations between Iran and the United States, this is unlikely. Majlis speaker Ali Larijani expressed the widespread attitude of Iranian leaders on November 9, saying, "Whoever thinks that Obama will change the U.S. foreign policy is naive."
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Islam
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

90. AK Party Survives Closure Case: What Is Next?

Author:: Ihsan D. Dagi
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:: The Constitutional Court ruled not to close down the AK Party, relieving Turkey from an unprecedented level of political uncertainty, social and economic turmoil, and potential chaos. Instead, the court chose to keep the ruling party under close scrutiny by declaring it “a focal point of anti-secular activities,” and imposing financial measures.
Topic:: Government, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

91. PolicyWatch #1388: Saudi Arabia: Interfaith Talks Abroad, Intolerance at Home

Author:: Simon Henderson and Jasmine El-Gamal
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, Saudi Arabia is organizing a global interfaith conference in Madrid, with more than 200 Muslim, Christian, Jewish, Hindu, and Buddhist religious leaders from 54 countries expected to attend. The conference, in the words of its main organizer, the Mecca-based Muslim World League, will "focus on common human values." Many in the West, however, will likely judge the conference as a Saudi public relations effort to emphasize its leadership of the Islamic world, and to ward off criticism, especially from the United States, that Saudi Arabia bears continuing responsibility for political and financial backing of Sunni extremists across the Middle East.
Topic:: Islam and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

92. PolicyWatch #1355: Will the Turkish Constitutional Court Ban the AKP?

Author:: Soner Cagaptay, H. Akin Unver, and Hale Arifagaoglu
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 14, Turkey's chief prosecutor, Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya, filed a case with the country's Constitutional Court asking it to shut down the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and ban seventy-one of its members from seeking elected office for five years. He accused the party of spearheading "anti-secular activities" in violation of the Turkish constitution. Although the court's disposition is uncertain, the case is likely to strengthen the AKP regardless of the outcome.
Topic:: Civil Society, Government, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

93. PolicyWatch #1349: Who Represents the Iraqi Sunnis?

Author:: Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since the fall of Saddam Hussein, Sunnis in Anbar and other western Iraqi provinces have struggled to develop a coherent and representative political leadership. The recently formed Iraqi Awakening Convention (IAC) -- a collective of so-called "Awakening council" leaders -- could represent the next step in that evolution and, if nurtured, make a significant contribution to broader political reconciliation. It will also mean, however, that current elected leaders will have to give way to new local leaders or compete politically with them, since it is pointless to compete violently given the asymmetry of the current power balance.
Topic:: Islam, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

94. PolicyWatch #1333: Blacklisting Terrorism Supporters in Kuwait

Author:: David Pollock and Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 16, the UN Security Council's "Al-Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee" designated three Kuwaiti nationals for providing support to al-Qaeda. Although the UN measure is a welcome step forward, it is unlikely to have much impact without aggressive implementation by Kuwait. Given the Kuwaiti government's mixed record in cracking down on terrorism financing, there is reason to be skeptical that it will take strong action. At the same time, the UN blacklisting already appears to have affected Kuwaiti counterterrorism efforts in a way that previous requests from the United States alone could not accomplish.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East and Kuwait

95. West Bank Hardball: Fatah's Offensive Against Hamas

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After several political and military setbacks, Fatah and the Palestinian Authority (PA) have waged an effective campaign against Hamas's political, economic, and military position in the West Bank. And as long as Israeli security forces remain in the West Bank, a Hamas seizure of power there is effectively impossible. Although this is an important positive development, Hamas is an adaptive opponent that should not be counted out in the long-term power struggle in the Palestinian territories.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

96. In Her Own Words: Hillary Clinton on the Middle East

Author:: Larisa Baste
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 1, President-elect Obama announced his nomination of Senator Hillary Clinton as U.S. secretary of state. The following are her remarks on key Middle East issues made during the course of the Democratic presidential primary campaign.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

97. The Challenges of Israeli Military Action in Gaza

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the first in a two-part series examining the situation in Gaza as the December 19 expiration date of the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire approaches. The first focused on the challenges the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would face in undertaking any large-scale action; the second looks at the IDF's choices, and their implications, regarding the scope and duration of a potential incursion.
Topic:: Imperialism, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

98. Operation Cast Lead: Israel's Assault on Hamas

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israel's current Gaza operation represents the strongest attack on Hamas since summer 2006, and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are creating the conditions for broader military action. Although it is unclear how far the IDF will take the current operation, its attacks are already posing a significant challenge to Hamas. The Palestinian group has no means of defending against Israel's air raids and can take measures only to reduce the effects. Similarly, Hamas's offensive options, while potentially painful for Israel, cannot prevent the destructive air attacks. Although Operation Cast Lead may not aim directly at toppling Hamas, it will certain weaken the organization's military and police capability and hence its capacity to enforce its rule in Gaza.
Topic:: Security, Islam, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East

99. Israel's Policy Options in the Gaza Conflict

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The legacy of Israel's inconclusive thirty-four-day war with Hizballah in 2006 hovers over Israel's current military operations in Gaza. Israel believes its deterrence was lost in that war, and Israel's current campaign against Hamas should be seen as an effort to regain that deterrence. Israeli military officials believe that if Hamas feared Israel, they would not be firing rockets at Israeli towns but would have instead renewed the six-month ceasefire.
Topic:: Islam, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

100. PolicyWatch #1317: Elections in Jordan: Poor Showing for Islamists

Author:: Hassan Barari
Publication Date:: 12-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: During last month's elections in Jordan, the Islamists suffered an unprecedented defeat. Previously, the Islamic Action Front (IAF) -- Jordan's largest political party -- controlled an impressive bloc of 17 of 110 seats. But the IAF ran only twenty-two candidates in the latest contest and won just six seats. This stunning defeat has generated recrimination among the Islamists, providing insight into the internal politics of this secretive party. The following is an analysis of the dynamics within the IAF and Jordanian society that caused this electoral collapse, and the implications of these developments for the kingdom's Islamist trend.
Topic:: Islam and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Jordan

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS