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102. Why Should Turkey Comply With The Global Climate Regime?
- Author:
- Ahmet Atıl Aşıcı
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- It is clear that Turkish economy is in need of a new trajectory. Under the current circumstances, it is not possible to offer jobs and hope to young people, and a secure future to the society. Therefore, it is necessary to reverse this vicious circle with a well-designed transformation program in an attempt to establish a durable and promising economic structure.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Governance, Economy, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
103. Increasing Vulnerability of Female Labor Force and Deepening Gender Inequalities During The Covid-19 Outbreak
- Author:
- Deniz Beyazbulut
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- This study aims to examine women’s unemployment and its course during the pandemic period by making use of Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TÜİK’s) Household Labor Force Survey data (HIA), reports prepared by the Research Center of the Confederation of Progressive Trade Unions of Turkey (DİSK-AR) on Unemployment and Employment Outlook, and International Labour Organization’s (ILO) World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2021. In the study, gender inequalities, which have intensified with the increase in women’s domestic work and care burdens with the pandemic, will also be discussed.
- Topic:
- Women, Employment, Inequality, COVID-19, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
104. Turkey’s Eurasian ambitions at a time of geopolitical uncertainty
- Author:
- Sinem Adar
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s increasingly salient weaknesses in its war against Ukraine have unsettled what was a delicate balance in the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia. Turkey is trying to reap the benefits of this unsettled situation by further intensifying cooperation with a region that it has long considered kin to itself due to linguistic and cultural affinities. These efforts dovetail with rehabilitation attempts of an ever-worsening Turkish economy in the face of an upcoming election in 2023 of historical decisiveness. Beyond these immediate triggers, lurking underneath Ankara’s renewed interest in the region is the post-Cold War strategic ambition to position Turkey as a logistics and energy hub connecting Europe and Asia. Yet skepticism within Europe over Ankara’s strategic orientation at a time of intense geopolitical confrontation and competition abounds. As such, it is necessary to soberly think about Turkey’s place within an emerging Eurasian space and the costs and benefits of engaging with Turkey.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East
105. KDP and PUK in Sadir’s Chess Game
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Muqtada Al-Sadir, the Shiite Cleric Grandmaster, is playing to win; whatever the expense. In the build-up to the game, the Sunnis got their act together and seized the opportunity to become the main winners of the first round. However, the Kurds entered the fight on one leg, lost sight of the bigger picture and intensified their internal power rivalry. This has already proven costly for the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), and if they keep on as they started, the second round will be even dearer. Fortunately, it is not too late to minimise their losses or even end up winning future rounds. To do this, they need to take into account the complex power dynamics within not just the Shiite component of Iraq (Shiite House), but also the Shiite ‘Universe’ inside and outside Iraq.
- Topic:
- Religion, Conflict, Sunni, Identity, and Shiism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
106. The US strategies in Iraq: A policy debate with Amb. Matthew Tueller
- Author:
- Middle East Research Institute
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- “We are making good progress on constructing a permanent Consulate General in Erbil, the largest US Consulate facility anywhere in the world. And I see that as the nature of the long-term strategic commitment that the United States has to Iraq and to the Kurdistan Region”, said Matthew H. Tueller, the United States Ambassador to Iraq, in a MERI policy debate on 15 May 2022. In this special roundtable, Amb. Tueller outlined the US policies in Iraq and stressed that the strong and long-term strategic partnership between the two countries goes far beyond the military aspect of relationship. It intends to move towards a “shared goal of Iraq as an emerging strong, stable and sovereign state”, which can protect its borders and ensure that no armed forces outside of the government control can influence inside. These are “ongoing challenges” that Iraq faces and the US is trying to help in overcoming them.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
107. he EU-Iraq security partnership: A Policy Debate with MEPs
- Author:
- Middle East Research Institute
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- A Policy Debate with European Parliament Subcommittee on Security and Defence “The Middle East, Iraq and Kurdistan are key partners of Europe… What takes place here has consequences in Europe and vice versa”, said Nathalie Loiseau, Chair of the European Parliament Subcommittee on Security and Defence (SEDE) in a MERI policy debate held on 25 May 2022. Ms Loiseau headed a delegation of seven members of European Parliament (MEPs), along with a group of senior parliamentary advisors and staff (listed below), who visited both Baghdad and Erbil. Their aim was to engage Iraqi policy- and decision-makers and to develop a deeper understanding of the security challenges facing both Iraq and the Kurdistan Region (KRI).
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, and Middle East
108. Politicking in Doha: But will the Syrian opposition shift to more pragmatic diplomacy?
- Author:
- Malik al-Abdeh and Lars Hauch
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) and the Syrian Negotiation Commission (SNC) are in dire need of internal renewal and a new political strategy given the deadlock of UN-led peace negotiations. A forthcoming opposition gathering on 4 February in Doha with more than 80 Syrian opposition leaders, activists and academics might offer an opportunity to do so. However, the event’s public face is Riyad Hijab, who is no longer part of the SOC and is seen as pursuing an internal leadership takeover. It is likely that the event will be part of a series that seeks to create a new centre of opposition without creating a new opposition body. Yet, neither Hijab’s internal politicking nor possible legitimacy/efficiency gains from implementation of a parallel SOC internal reform plan will generate a new political strategy for the opposition. This requires creative and pragmatic diplomacy that focuses on, for example, negotiating crossline arrangements between all conflict parties that improve local security and facilitate travel, trade and aid to improve the desperate situation of the Syrian people — in line with the UN’s call for a ‘safe, calm and neutral environment’ (SCNE). The habits of dialogue and compromise that can gradually develop in this manner could be leveraged at a later stage to address the more complex issues of power sharing and reconstruction once an appropriate window of opportunity has opened up.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Syrian War, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and Doha
109. All eyes on Ankara: A scenario exercise focused on the 2023 elections
- Author:
- Nienke van Heukelingen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Over the years, foreign policy has become a source of tension in the European Union’s relationship with Turkey. Although the EU has repeatedly disapproved of Ankara’s (military) interventions in Syria, Libya and Iraq as well as in the Eastern Mediterranean region and the South Caucasus, it has so far not been able to counterbalance Ankara’s actions. In that light, Turkey’s 2023 elections serve as a crucial moment. Seen through the lens of two theoretical scenarios – Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the People’s Alliance win the elections, versus Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections – this policy brief provides an insight into the instruments the EU has at its disposal to influence and/or respond to Ankara’s potential future foreign policy. It shows that while neither scenario will be hassle-free, the EU has most room to manoeuvre and can make best use of its instruments, ranging from diplomatic engagement to military cooperation, in a situation where Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections in 2023.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
110. A stubborn threat: Islamic State in Iraq in early 2022
- Author:
- Nancy Ezzeddine and Matteo Colombo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- In the four years since its territorial defeat, Islamic State (IS) has proved to be resilient as it continues to mount attacks across Iraq. Analysis of IS activity from September 2021 to February 2022 (six months) shows that the geography, type and targets of IS attacks remained broadly similar to the year preceding this period. The volume of IS attacks increased but this mostly took the form of small-scale and local incidents. By and large, the group seems to be stable and shows neither decline nor growth. It operates nimbly and is mostly active in the arc between Sinjar and Baghdad. Counter-terrorism (CT) operations decreased in volume over the same period but are nevertheless keeping IS in check. However, as CT operations are mostly tactical affairs that remain inadequately coordinated and low on intelligence in some aspects, they have not been able to eliminate IS capacity to mount major operations, or to remove it from entire areas. Broadly speaking, IS attacks and CT operations are in a state of equilibrium. As Iraqi CT efforts emphasise security interventions over socio-political remedies, conditions for IS survival, as well as future revival, remain relatively favourable.
- Topic:
- Security, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
111. Lost in transition: The Muslim Brotherhood in 2022
- Author:
- Matteo Colombo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Hamstrung by decades of repression, mistrust and a lack of governance experience, Muslim Brotherhood-linked parties were ultimately unable to navigate the post-2011 tensions between the need to deliver on the popular demands of the Arab uprisings and maintain ideological coherence. Similarly, they struggled to retain their revolutionary credentials and at the same time compromise with ruling elites in order to govern. While this was always a tall order, the consequence has been that decline and crisis followed the organisation’s initial ascent between 2011 and 2013. The Muslim Brotherhood gradually lost its ideological influence over parties it had inspired following the 2013 military takeover against Mohamed Morsi in Egypt. From this year onwards, growing repression, marginalisation and factionalism accelerated the movement’s decline. The arrest and exile of leading Muslim Brotherhood individuals created a leadership void and opened up space for internal strife. Today, the Muslim Brotherhood is a shadow of its former self and in crisis. In parallel to the decline of the Muslim Brotherhood, the legitimacy and relevance of jihadism, political Salafism and Iran’s model of religious rule also appear to have weakened, respectively due to the ‘defeat’ of Islamic State, Saudi modernisation and the poor to mediocre governance provided by Tehran’s partners. This raises the question what major religiously inspired sources of political renewal and mobilisation remain across the Middle East and North Africa that are capable of offering credible prospects for better governance.
- Topic:
- Governance, Islamism, Legitimacy, and Muslim Brotherhood
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt
112. The Yemen War in Numbers: Saudi Escalation and U.S. Complicity
- Author:
- Annelle Sheline
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- • Yemen’s humanitarian crisis demonstrates the consequences and risks of the American decision to enable Saudi and Emirati military action against Yemen. This decision reflects a flawed calculus: the belief that by supporting Arab security partners, the U.S. can prevent them from moving into China’s or Russia’s orbit. As recent events have demonstrated, America’s partners in the Middle East are hedging despite the Biden administration’s extensive support: For example, when the U.N. Security Council voted in February to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UAE abstained. America’s Gulf partners hope to strengthen their relationships with Moscow and Beijing while continuing to reap the benefits of Washington’s largesse. • American involvement in supporting Saudi-led military action against the Houthis in Yemen, rather than helping to resolve the conflict as the Biden administration claims, is prolonging and escalating the violence. By continuing to support Saudi and Emirati aggression, the U.S. not only deepens its complicity in the slaughter of Yemen’s civilian population; it also risks getting dragged into more active participation in the war on behalf of these two Arab security partners. • Biden committed to ending support for offensive operations in Yemen. His administration alleges that the support America provides to Saudi Arabia and the UAE is merely defensive. Yet by selling weapons it designates as defensive, as well as servicing contracts for spare parts and maintenance for the Saudi air force, the U.S. actively helps the coalition wage its war. Further, this position ignores the billions of dollars in offensive weapons the U.S. previously sold to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which they continue to use on Yemen. The administration asserts that the U.S. must help Saudi Arabia and the UAE defend against transborder attacks; yet the data show that Houthi transborder attacks pose a minor threat to the Saudis and Emiratis, especially compared with the scale of their attacks on Yemen. • Instead of escalating U.S. involvement in defending the Saudis and Emiratis from the consequences of their aggression, the Biden administration should suspend all arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE until they end their military intervention in Yemen.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, War, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
113. Ending Primacy to End U.S. Wars
- Author:
- Daniel Bessner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- • If America’s decision-makers are to learn from the Iraq War (2003–11), they must recognize it not as an aberration or an isolated mistake, but as a direct consequence of the U.S. search for primacy in the Middle East. The Iraq War was overdetermined in that tensions between the U.S. and Iraq were rooted fundamentally in Iraq’s perceived challenge to U.S. regional dominance. Consequently, in the “unipolar moment,” a U.S. effort to change the regime in Baghdad was bound to occur after some spark, such as the September 11 attacks, set it in motion. • Today, a similar desire to sustain dominance in Asia places the U.S. on a collision course with China. To avoid war with China, policy elites must reconceive their commitment to primacy and recognize that the United States will not be able to dictate terms in its relations with others in an emergent multipolar world. • Some competition between the United States and China is probably inevitable. But this competition does not present an existential threat to the U.S. and therefore must not be allowed to prevent necessary cooperation to address the major threats of the 21st century: inequality, population movements, pandemics, and climate change.
- Topic:
- War, History, Hegemony, Military Intervention, and Gulf War
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and United States of America
114. Emerging Powers and Peacebuilding Financing: Recommendations for Finding Common Ground
- Author:
- Priyal Singh and Gustavo De Carvalho
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- There is currently a North-South gap in discussions on peacebuilding financing, despite the fact that emerging powers are playing an increasingly important role in fragile and conflict-affected countries. Now is the moment to create opportunities for mutual engagement, coordination, and learning.
- Topic:
- Finance, Conflict, Emerging Powers, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Middle East, India, East Asia, South Africa, and Latin America
115. Principled pragmatism: Europe’s place in a multipolar Middle East
- Author:
- Julien Barnes-Dacey and Hugh Lovatt
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- A multipolar Middle East is emerging as the US “right-sizes” its posture in the region – and as regional states and external powers, including Russia and China, become more assertive. Russia’s war on Ukraine is accelerating these dynamics, while also provoking destabilising price shocks and underscoring the region’s importance to energy markets. The Middle East’s geopolitical shifts pose huge challenges to Europe, but multipolarity could create space to promote European interests more effectively. A coherent European approach should be guided by principled pragmatism: acknowledging the region as it is rather than as Europeans want it to be, while staying focused on the principles needed to secure longer-term stability. Europeans need to enhance transatlantic complementarity and stop ceding leverage to their Middle Eastern partners. While they compete for influence with Russia and China, they should maintain room for coordination with both countries. Europe should tap into the opportunities created by stabilisation support, green energy, and economic diversification – areas that could provide an edge over China.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, Strategic Interests, Pragmatism, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
116. Iron net: Digital repression in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- James Lynch
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Governments across the world have powerful digital tools to control and repress their populations, ranging from spyware and social media manipulation to facial recognition technology and mass surveillance. Activists are working to protect themselves from such tools, but this is not a fair fight. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the leading exponents of digital authoritarianism in the Middle East. The two states have intensified their collaboration with China and Israel to gain greater access to advanced technologies. The EU has responded to concerns about the risks of new technologies with a raft of regulations on digital markets and services, artificial intelligence, and technology exports. The fact that European governments have been targeted, and implicated, in NSO Group’s Pegasus scandal should sound the alarm about the global threat of digital authoritarianism. The EU should treat the threat as an urgent security and political concern.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Policy, and Hybrid Threats
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
117. Early warning: How Iraq can adapt to climate change
- Author:
- Nussaibah Younis
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Iraq is at high risk of suffering the worst effects of the climate crisis, including soaring temperatures and acute water scarcity. As land suitable for farming shrinks and rural jobs disappear, ordinary Iraqis are moving to cities in search of work. This increases pressure on services, pushes up food prices, and exacerbates social tensions, leading to protests and even violence. Iraq’s weak internal governance prevents it from improving water management, managing inter-provincial and inter-tribal conflict, and attracting investment and expertise to create new green-economy jobs and adapt to the changing climate. Public awareness of climate risks is growing, but too few political leaders prioritise the issue. Iraq has long struggled to reach agreement on water issues with upstream states Turkey and Iran, which are building dams that affect supply to Iraq; they also believe that Iraq manages water badly. Similar issues complicate relations between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region. Iraqis and Europeans should work together to improve Iraq’s poor governance and consider measures such as establishing an ‘early warning’ system about potential conflict arising from climate effects.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Politics, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, and Middle East
118. Hedge politics: Turkey’s search for balance in the Middle East
- Author:
- Asli Aydıntaşbaş
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Turkey has spent much of the past decade trying to expand its influence and remake the Middle East in its own image. This created a major battle line between the country and its rivals that stretched from Libya to Syria and the eastern Mediterranean. Yet, since mid-2021, Turkey has attempted to normalise its relationships with Middle Eastern countries. This shift has been driven by Turkish domestic politics, the emergence of a multipolar Middle East, and intensifying geopolitical competition. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains politically vulnerable at home, with a deteriorating economy and the opposition leading in the polls. His government’s survival now depends on efforts to balance between great powers and draw financing from former rivals in the Gulf. The EU needs to adjust to this new Turkey by supporting the regional normalisation process, managing the Kurdish issue, and accepting that the country could join an expanded European community – albeit while retaining its strategic autonomy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, Domestic Politics, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
119. KDP and PUK in Sadir’s Chess Game
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Muqtada Al-Sadir, the Shiite Cleric Grandmaster, is playing to win; whatever the expense. In the build-up to the game, the Sunnis got their act together and seized the opportunity to become the main winners of the first round. However, the Kurds entered the fight on one leg, lost sight of the bigger picture and intensified their internal power rivalry. This has already proven costly for the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), and if they keep on as they started, the second round will be even dearer. Fortunately, it is not too late to minimise their losses or even end up winning future rounds. To do this, they need to take into account the complex power dynamics within not just the Shiite component of Iraq (Shiite House), but also the Shiite ‘Universe’ inside and outside Iraq.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
120. Petroleum Industry Diversification in the Middle East and Its Policy Implications for Korea in the Era of Energy Transition
- Author:
- Kwon Hyung Lee, Sung Hyun Son, Yun Hee Jang, Kwang Ho Ryou, and Dawoon Lee
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- The GCC oil exporters including Saudi Arabia and the UAE are under strong pressure to prepare for decreasing global oil demand in the era of energy transition and carbon neutrality. To overcome these challenges, they need to diversify their industrial structure and develop low carbon technologies such as green hydrogen and CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage). This research is aimed to examine various mid-to-long term plans, industrial policies, and business cooperation cases to promote diversification in the Middle Eastern petroleum industry, suggesting policy proposals for cooperation between Korea and the Middle East and business opportunities in the region.
- Topic:
- Oil, Business, Diversification, Industry, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Asia, and South Korea
121. Hackers, Hoodies, and Helmets: Technology and the changing face of Russian private military contractors
- Author:
- Emma Schroeder, Gavin Wilde, Justin Sherman, and Trey Herr
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The first time Russia invaded Ukraine in the twenty-first century, the Wagner Group was born. The now widely profiled private military company (PMC) played an important role in exercising Russian national power over the Crimea and portions of the Donbas—while giving Moscow a semblance of plausible deniability. In the near decade since, the Russian PMC sector has grown considerably, and is active in more than a dozen countries around the world. PMCs are paramilitary organizations established and run as private companies—though they often operate in contract with one or more states. They are profit-motivated, expeditionary groups that make a business of the conduct of war.1 PMCs are in no way a uniquely Russian phenomenon, yet the expanding footprint of Russian PMCs and their links to state interests call for a particularly Russian-focused analysis of the industry. The growth of these firms and their direct links to the Kremlin’s oligarch network as well as Moscow’s foreign media, industrial, and cyber activities present a challenge to the United States and its allies as they seek to counter Russian malicious activities abroad. As signals intelligence and offensive cyber capabilities, drones and counter-drone systems, and encrypted communications become more accessible, these technologies will prove ever more decisive to both battlefield outcomes and statecraft. More exhaustive research on these issues is necessary. The ongoing conflict resulting from Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine in this young century seems likely to shape the conduct of Russian foreign policy and security behavior for years to come—and these firms will play a part. The activities of these PMCs include high-intensity combat operations, as evidenced in Syria in 2018 and Ukraine in 2022, and a mix of population control, escort and close protection, and local direct-action activities, as seen in Libya, Mali, and elsewhere.2 Given the sourcing and dependence of Russian PMCs on Russian military service personnel and no small influence of Russian doctrine, the questions to reasonably ask include: How do changes in the Russian conduct of war and adoption of new technologies influence these PMCs? Moreover, how might these technological changes influence the role these PMCs play in Russian strategic goals and activity abroad?
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Wagner Group, Russia-Ukraine War, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, and Africa
122. Israel-NATO Relations: Developing a New Strategic Concept
- Author:
- Rina Bassist
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Israel’s relations with the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) were never a focal point of its foreign and security policy. In fact, they have weakened since their peak in the 1990s. However, recent geopolitical shifts have highlighted the importance of these relations for Israel, providing a potential foundation for reshaping them. NATO has been undergoing profound reform in recent years, expanding its agenda to deal with additional issues of human security, such as the climate and energy crises, and stressing innovation. The war in Ukraine not only injected renewed vigor and political power into the alliance, it also hastened the processes of organizational renewal and emphasized the alliance’s geographical focus northward and eastward. Israel, too, has undergone change, its security enhanced by normalization agreements with Arab states, a strong Hellenic alliance with Greece and Cyprus, and warming relations with Turkey. Its technological capabilities and its business model orientation could turn its posture vis-à-vis NATO from a consumer of security to a supplier. NATO and Israel now have an opportunity to reshape, deepen and improve their relationship.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
123. Partnership Priorities with the EU – What (If Anything) Is Israel Missing?
- Author:
- Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Among European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) countries, Israel has enjoyed the most advanced relations with the European Union (EU). This comes as no surprise, as it is a viable liberal democratic country with a free and vibrant economy leading in innovation and many other fields. Yet, since 2016, Southern and Eastern neighbourhood countries signed Partnership Priorities agreements with the EU, while Israel didn’t. This paper describes what Partnership Priorities are, why Israel hasn’t signed a Partnership Priorities agreement so far, and asks what Israel is missing out on by lacking an established set of Partnership Priorities with the EU.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
124. The Significance of Convening the European Union – Israel Association Council
- Author:
- Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- On July 18, 2022, the Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union (EU) decided to move ahead with convening the EU-Israel Association Council (AC) after a decade-long hiatus. What does this mean? What opportunities does it offer, and what were the costs of not convening it so far? This paper explains what the AC is, the reasons for its suspension and for the decision to re-convene it. Assuming it will re-convene, the paper recommends future measures between Israel and the EU.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
125. Implications of Israel and Turkey’s diplomatic thaw on Israel’s Mediterranean Policy
- Author:
- Roee Kibrik
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- This document focuses on the challenges and opportunities for Israel’s policy in the Mediterranean Basin as a result of its warming relations with Turkey. It covers the main points raised at the 11th meeting of the Research and Policy Group on Israel in the Mediterranean Basin conducted on May 24, 2022, at the initiative of the Mitvim Institute, Hebrew University’s Davis Institute for International Relations and Haifa University’s National Security Studies Center. The document does not necessarily reflect agreement among all discussion participants. The warming relations between Israel and Turkey
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Mediterranean
126. One step forward, one step back: International discourse on advancing Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking
- Author:
- Lior Lehrs
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The Israeli-Palestinian peace process has been locked in a stalemate since the 2014 collapse of the US mediation initiative led by then-Secretary of State John Kerry. The relations between the parties have been all but severed and characterized by a series of crises and tensions that peaked over Israel’s 2020 West Bank annexation plan. While the Israeli-Arab normalization agreements removed the annexation idea from the agenda, this did not change the Israeli-Palestinian situation. Developments in recent months in the Israeli-Palestinian arena pose challenges and risks but also new opportunities and possibilities. Special attention should be paid to the impact of the May 2021 escalation, the deep crisis in the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the establishment of a new government in Israel. This paper maps the international discourse on advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace under the current conditions, and constitutes a follow-up to the paper we published in April 2021. It is based on a series of dialogues held by Mitvim Institute experts in August and September 2021 with European, American and Palestinian diplomats and experts, as well as UN officials, and also on a series of discussions among a team of Israeli experts formed by Mitvim.[1] The paper offers an analysis of the positions and perceptions of international actors regarding the effects of the latest developments on the Israeli-Palestinian arena, and their insights and conclusions about the feasible and desired measures that could be undertaken to advance Israeli-Palestinian peace.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Affairs, Dialogue, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
127. A Shaky Foundation: The Myth of Authoritarian Stability in the Middle East
- Author:
- Jon Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- American foreign policy in the Middle East is based on a myth. For decades, policymakers have worked to prop up Middle Eastern autocracies out of the belief that they serve as the only bulwark against chaos and threats to American interests in the region. This approach gets things backward. Rather than being the solution to the region’s various problems, these actors are responsible for producing and exacerbating the greatest underlying problems in the region, and a blank check from Washington allows them to act with impunity both at home and abroad. Accordingly, U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East is in desperate need of an overhaul.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
128. Additional Losses: Examining the severity of the protests' impact on Iran's economy
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Widespread protests broke out across Iran after the death of Mahsa Amini in a hospital in Tehran in September 2022 while in the custody of the country's morality police. While the current protests differ from previous protests in that protestors demanded women's rights be respected. Later, the protests spread, and the protesters demanded regime change. Yet, the economy's deterioration is one of the main drivers of the spread of the angry protests. As social unrest is likely to further exacerbate across Iran, the protests are likely to incur financial and trade losses, further complicating the economic situation.
- Topic:
- Economy, Domestic Politics, Protests, Inflation, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
129. Mutual Aims: Turkish-Iranian targeting of Iraq’s Kurds
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Turkey and Iran, in recent months, have increased their strikes on areas occupied by Kurds in Iraq. The Turkish Air Force, on November 20, announced intense airstrikes, dubbed Operation Claw-Sword, targeting Syrian Democratic Forces and Syrian Army positions in Northern Syria and against Kurdistan Workers’ Party positions in Northern Iraq. Iran, at the same time, intensified its missile and drone strikes on locations that belong to Kurdish opposition parties, which Tehran claims to have been supporting the latest demonstrations across the country since September this year. The timing of these strikes raises questions about the intention of both regimes and the timing of their targeting of Kurdish rebels in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Kurds, Strategic Interests, and Military Alignment
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, and Middle East
130. Iran Protests: Limitations of foreign support to protests
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- National Council of Resistance of Iran has said more than 400 Iranians have been killed and over 20,000 arrested since the breakout of nation-wide protests in Iran. Popular unrests and violence have been sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, three days after she was being detained by ‘morality police’ for claims of violating hijab laws.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Protests, Foreign Interference, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
131. Limited Outcome: UNSC Resolution 2656 fails to solve the Libyan Crisis
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The United Nations Security Council Resolution, on October 28, 2022, unanimously voted to extend the mandate of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) for twelve months. It urged all Libyan parties and key stakeholders to agree on a new road map to deliver presidential and parliamentary elections as soon as possible and form a Libyan unified government able to govern across the country.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Conflict, Crisis Management, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Libya
132. Persistent Obstacles: Iraqi state’s prospects for forming a new government
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Head of the Sadrist Movement and powerful Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has announced that a truce reached to observe the Shia religious observance of Arbaeen was extended for another two weeks to mid-October to give political forces a chance to respond to his demands. The announcement coincided with the Iraqi parliament’s rejection of the resignation of Speaker of the parliament, Mohammed al-Halbousi on September 28. It also came while the Shi'ite Coordination Framework, the largest bloc in the parliament, claimed that, along with the Kurdisd and Sunni parties, it succeeded in establishing a new political coalition, reportedly named “Running-the-State Coalition.”
- Topic:
- Government, Domestic Politics, Muqtada al-Sadr, Coalition, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
133. Urgent Messages: Assessing the influence of the US-France-Saudi statement on Lebanon holding timely elections
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The foreign ministers of the United States, France and Saudi Arabia, on September 21, issued a joint statement expressing their support for Lebanon. In the statement issued after representatives of the three countries met on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly, expressed their continuing support for Lebanon’s sovereignty, security, and stability. They stressed upon the importance of holding timely elections in compliance with the constitution to choose a new president and form a new government capable of implementing the structural and economic reforms, urgently needed to address Lebanon’s political and economic crises, specifically those reforms needed to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund. In the statement, the three countries further expressed willingness to work jointly with Lebanon to support the implementation of these fundamental reform measures, which are critical to the country’s future prosperity, stability, and security. The three countries acknowledged the critical role the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Internal Security Forces – as the legitimate defenders of Lebanon’s sovereignty and internal stability – continue to play in protecting the Lebanese people in a time of unprecedented crisis. They affirmed the need for the Lebanese government to implement the provisions of UN Security Council resolutions 1559, 1680, 1701, 2650, and other relevant international resolutions, including those issued by the Arab League, and commit to the Taif Agreement which enables the preservation of national unity and civil peace in Lebanon.
- Topic:
- Reform, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, France, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and United States of America
134. Possible Prospects: The chances of success of Iraq’s national dialogue
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Iraqi political forces and government representatives, at a meeting on September 5, agreed on six recommendations, which include the creation of a technical team to shape views and perceptions and reconcile different views to pave the way for early elections. The meeting was held as part of the second round of the national dialogue, held despite the Sadrist Movement’s rejection of the dialogue. The first round, held on August 17, was attended by leaders of the Shiite Coordination Framework, leaders from other political forces as well as the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Civil Unrest, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
135. Deepening the Divide: How do regional and international actors impact war-torn Libya
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Months of political and military stalemate speak volumes of the effects of regional and international intervention in Libya. And with multitude of players seek to break the deadlock, Libya may brace itself for a new political episode that might transpire in the coming period.
- Topic:
- Politics, Military Intervention, Conflict, and International Community
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Libya
136. Reciprocal Pressures: Are Israel-Lebanon maritime border talks doomed to fail?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The future of talks between Israel and Lebanon on delineating a shared maritime border, mediated by US Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs, Amos Hochstein remains uncertain following an exchange of escalatory statements from Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah about the disputed Karish natural gas field. Both sides suggested that the tensions can escalate into an all-out war unless their conditions are met. However, Lebanese officials including President Michel Aoun stated that the negotiations to demarcate the border are in the final stages.
- Topic:
- Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Maritime, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
137. Stalling: Analysing Iran’s written response to EU nuclear deal draft
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- EU’s high representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, said on August 15 that both the EU and US were studying Iran’s written response and hoping to restore the tattered nuclear deal. There was no timeline given on when the world powers would respond, but Iran’s official media said Tehran expected a reply in two days.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Nonproliferation, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
138. A Revealing Election: Implications of re-electing Berri as Lebanon's parliament speaker for 7th term
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Lebanon’s 128-strong parliament met on May 31, 2022 to elect a speaker, a deputy speaker, two secretaries and three commissioners. The new legislature re-elected Nabih Berri, the head of the Amal Movement for a 7th term in a row, as speaker and MP Elias Bou Saab, who represents the Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc, as deputy speaker.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Presidential Elections, Parliament, and Nabih Berri
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
139. Holding the Hard-line: What is behind Iran’s seizure of Greek ships in Arabian Gulf?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On May 27, Iran seized two Greek tankers, named “Prudent Warrior” and “Delta Poseidon”, in the Arabian Gulf. Forces from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) descended on the tankers and ordered them to sail to Bandar Abbas port. Onboard the tankers were 49 crew members. Greece described the operation as ‘piracy’. The seizure seems to be a reprisal for Greece’s role earlier in the month assisting the US impounding a Russian-flagged tanker transporting Iranian oil and carrying 19 crew.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Maritime, and Shipping
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Greece
140. The Hurriyet Leaks: Ankara ceasing opportunity for rapprochement with Damascus
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- In a recent report published by Turkish newspaper, Hurriyet, unnamed sources have said Ankara is mulling over opportunities to facilitate a dialogue with the Syrian government. Sources at the Syrian Foreign Ministry have strongly denied such reports however, labelling them as mere political red herring, as Turkey’s presidential elections loom on the horizon.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Refugees, Syrian War, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
141. The 2022 Israeli elections: Change, but no change
- Author:
- Erwin van Veen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- On 1 November 2022, Israelis will cast their votes to elect a new parliament for the 25th time since 1948. Between 1949 and 2019 (70 years), Israelis went to the polls 20 times. Each parliamentary assembly (Knesset) averaged 3.5 years. But between 2019 and 2022, Israelis voted four times. Each parliamentary assembly averaged only nine months. This brief examines some of the causes of Israel’s political turmoil and assesses whether it matters for two issues of European concern: Israel’s status as ‘democratic’ ally and the occupation of Palestine. Despite their evident shortcomings with regard to Israeli Arabs and Palestinians, we do not expect the Israeli elections of November 2022 to downgrade the country’s allied status across European capitals. Neither do we anticipate the Israeli elections to moderate the country’s policy of annexation in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Our analysis suggests instead that future Israeli governments will maintain majoritarian Jewish rule and expects it to be propelled by a more unapologetic and repressive ethno-nationalism. This will lead Israel further down the path of exclusionary governance and large-scale human rights violations that risks backfiring in the long term. It will also further erode the moral credibility of the European Union, including the Netherlands, in the areas of human rights and accountability.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Elections, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
142. The 2023 Turkish elections: An unmarked road
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As the date of elections approaches, the political and economic landscape will undoubtedly come into clearer focus. But at this point, amid so many uncertainties, it is still too early to predict electoral outcomes with any confidence.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Elections, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
143. The Emirati Lobby in America
- Author:
- Ben Freeman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has exerted considerable influence in its region in recent years and has also been a major factor in U.S. foreign policy. The UAE military and its proxies fought for years in Yemen and still maintain significant influence there, despite a 2020 pledge to withdraw from the devastating conflict. The UAE and other Gulf states have normalized relations with Israel under the auspices of the Abraham Accords. The UAE also continues to receive billions of dollars worth of U.S. military equipment and weapons. On the soft power side, the UAE played host to World Expo 2020, also known as the Expo 2020 Dubai, a cultural event that brought together representatives from nearly every country in the world. A small army of U.S.–based lobbyists working on behalf of the UAE has played a role in all these events, and in nearly every aspect of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Based on an exhaustive analysis of all Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) documents filed by organizations registered to work on behalf of UAE clients in 2020 and 2021, this brief offers a number of key findings regarding legal lobbying activities of the UAE in the United States.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Soft Power, and Lobbying
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
144. Targeting Financial Entities outside Iran to Counter Tehran’s Economic Strategy
- Author:
- Yair Albeck
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Tehran is stringing out the nuclear negotiations endlessly with the expectation that President Joe Biden will not admit that the talks have failed. After such an admission, the public would likely pressure the administration to stop offering Iran stealth economic relief through the lax enforcement of sanctions. Rigorous enforcement would, the White House fears, remove Iranian oil from the market and contribute to the global energy crisis that Russia’s war against Ukraine sparked. Meanwhile, Iran is benefitting doubly—strategically and economically—from the war, selling missiles and drones to Russia and oil to China. Given this advantageous situation, Tehran wants negotiations to continue. Can the United States escape from this conundrum? In fact, it can impose severe economic costs on Tehran without removing oil from the market.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Democracy, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
145. Addressing the Crushing Weight of Yemen’s Public Debt
- Author:
- Sana'a Center Economic Unit
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- For decades prior to the ongoing conflict, Yemen had been vulnerable to recurring budget deficits due to a lack of meaningful fiscal reform, high recurrent expenditures – mainly public sector salaries and fuel subsidies – and an overdependence on oil revenues. While foreign debt obligations remained low, the debt market was poorly diversified, with treasury bill holders narrowly concentrated within the banking sector and government bonds held almost exclusively by public pension funds. The escalation of the ongoing conflict in 2015 has had a profoundly negative impact on Yemen’s debt position. Large-scale oil exports ceased, leading to a collapse in public revenues, while banks and pension funds stopped purchasing government debt instruments. Management of the public debt became bifurcated between rival central bank administrations in Aden and Sana’a, both of which suspended payments on foreign and domestic debt obligations. Unable to receive interest payments, public debt holders faced a liquidity crisis, leaving banks unable to honor customer obligations and threatening their solvency, while pension funds have struggled to support retirees. On January 25-27, 2021, senior Yemeni experts and professionals convened virtually for the 7th Development Champions Forum (DCF), as part of the Rethinking Yemen’s Economy initiative, to discuss the evolution and structure of Yemen’s public debt, the dynamics during the conflict that have led to its colossal expansion, and the macroeconomic risks it poses. This was followed a week later with a briefing for international stakeholders on February 2. These discussions formed the basis for the research presented in this paper and its recommendations for addressing Yemen’s public debt crisis. Addressing the Crushing Weight of Yemen’s Public Debt - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies https://sanaacenter.org/publications/main-publications/18247
- Topic:
- Budget, Economy, Armed Conflict, and Public Debt
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations
146. Fragmentation nation: How Europeans can help end the conflict in Yemen
- Author:
- Helen Lackner
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- For eight years, Yemen has suffered a civil war, whose conduct has been exacerbated by outside powers, principally Saudi Arabia and the UAE on one side, while Iran has supported the other. Yemen is a politically, socially, geographically, and religiously fragmented country, including within the two broad areas controlled by the internationally recognised government and the Houthis respectively. Saudi Arabia and the UAE may soon decrease their military interference in Yemen – but their exit could expose divisions in both government and Houthi areas. Yemen was poor before the conflict, but a corrupt war economy has now taken hold, strengthening an array of local power holders, while the Yemeni people slip into ever-deeper destitution. Short-term measures introduced with the support of the international community have failed to stabilise the situation. Europeans should take a longer-term approach to Yemen. They should promote the country’s cause in their diplomacy with Gulf Arab states and make a commitment to economic support, a values-based approach, and an emphasis on human rights in Yemen.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civil War, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, and United Arab Emirates
147. Post-Kemalism and the Future of Turkish Governance – Nicholas Danforth
- Author:
- Nicholas Danforth
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Disillusionment with Erdoğan and the AKP after 2013 has reshaped the study of Turkish politics and history, leading scholars to focus on new themes and new periods. Comparative approaches, political economy and a newfound interest in the Cold War have offered a more nuanced understanding of Turkish authoritarianism. Post-Kemalism remain more popular in the U.S. and Europe than in Turkey.
- Topic:
- Governance, Authoritarianism, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
148. Unknown Knowns How the Bush Administration Traded Failure for Success in Iraq
- Author:
- David Cortright, George A. Lopez, and Alistair Millar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Fourth Freedom Forum
- Abstract:
- This is the story of a road not taken, how the United States discarded a proven system of United Nations weapons inspections and multilateral sanctions and opted for an unnecessary war in Iraq. The saga of what happened twenty years ago may seem like ancient history to some, but many negative consequences are still evident. From the imposition of sanctions on Iraq in 1990 until the calamitous invasion in 2003, our research team produced a steady stream of reports and publications documenting the most significant policy failure by the United States since the Vietnam War.1 With the twentieth anniversary of the invasion approaching, it is time for a fresh look at those events to assess the strategic and ethical implications of the decisions made then and their relevance for today. George W. Bush was gripped by a messianic zeal to overthrow Saddam Hussein by force.2 The president and his advisers were determined to implement a policy of armed regime change regardless of all evidence, logic, or reason.3 The White House concocted a false narrative of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of a dictator with supposed links to al-Qaida.4 Bush ignored the unequivocal conclusion of the U.S. intelligence community that Iraq had nothing to do with either 9/11 or al-Qaida.5 The result of the administration’s campaign of deception was a costly war of choice that ended in “strategic defeat,” to cite the conclusion of the U.S. Army history of the war.6 Many studies have examined what went wrong in Iraq,7 but few have looked at the alternative security approaches that were available at the time. We examine those alternatives here to document that the war was unnecessary and to highlight the policy advantages of multilateral nonmilitary security strategies.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Multilateralism, Iraq War, and George W. Bush
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
149. 2021 Resource Governance Index: Lebanon (Oil and Gas)
- Author:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Assessed for the first time, Lebanon’s governance of its nascent oil and gas sector scored 53 out of 100 points in the 2021 Resource Governance Index. While Lebanon is not yet an oil and gas producer, its government has begun to establish an institutional framework to govern the sector before production begins. Lebanon received a “satisfactory” score of 73 points in terms of its ability to realize value from its sector according to the RGI, with the Lebanese Petroleum Administration (LPA) displaying signs of best practice in terms of extractive sector transparency. Nonetheless, “weak” revenue management and a “poor” enabling environment are causes for concern for the future of Lebanon’s resource governance.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
150. Oil and Gas in Lebanon: Time to Rethink Expectations
- Author:
- Aaron Sayne and Laury Haytayan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Lebanon’s hopes of “entering the club of oil producers” have not materialized. After almost a decade of high expectations, the country still has no proven reserves of oil or natural gas. Instead, the one well drilled so far, by partners Eni, Total and Novatek, revealed only trace amounts of gas. Now the government has extended the companies’ deadline to explore until August 2022 and has postponed a second oil and gas licensing round. Lebanon needs a new, more realistic vision of what oil and gas can do for it. For years, politicians in Beirut have told the public that exporting fossil fuels would transform the country’s failing economy, and that generating electricity from gas would turn around its mismanaged power sector. In this briefing we do not try to predict the future—especially considering how fast conditions on the ground are changing. Instead, we offer an evidence-based warning about the wisdom of Lebanon staking its economic or energy future on oil and gas. The conclusions and observations are based on analysis of the current situation and on the experiences of fossil-fuel dependent countries and other prospective new producers. The current moment, though very painful, offers the country a chance to build a new energy strategy that it can start to implement when its economic and political fortunes improve. This strategy should realistically and sustainably meet people’s needs, rather than make them worse.
- Topic:
- Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, Economy, and Fossil Fuels
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
151. Fixing the Economy and Public Service Provision in Iraq
- Author:
- Shivan Fazil
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Iraq’s ethnosectarian power-sharing system, with its weak institutions and low levels of accountability, has penetrated the economy and hindered the performance of the state and provision of basic services. Lack of access to economic opportunities and quality public services has been a recurring grievance during the protests in Iraq. The state’s failure to fulfil the protestors’ demands is a widely seen as a symptom of its weakness, which has resulted in calls from protestors for the complete overhaul of the political system. This, however, is unlikely in the short term. Based on interviews with current and former government-level officials and experts in Iraq, this policy brief presents recommendations that focus on reforms within the system to address some of the governance problems besetting Iraqis while the prospect of changing the political system remains remote.
- Topic:
- Governance, Economy, Accountability, Institutions, and Public Service
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
152. Fixing the Economy and Public Service Provision in Lebanon
- Author:
- Amal Bourhrous
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The limited accountability and weak institutions of Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system have had a severe impact on the country’s economy and the state’s ability to provide basic public services. Protesters have repeatedly voiced discontent with a political system that facilitates corruption and allows self-serving political and sectarian elites to capture public resources and escape accountability. Many have called for the sectarian power-sharing system to be transcended. Although a comprehensive reform of the political system remains a remote prospect, there is an urgent need to address the grievances of Lebanese people within the system. Based on interviews with current and former government-level officials and experts in Lebanon, this policy brief presents recommendations on what can be done within the existing system to fix the economy and public service provision.
- Topic:
- Governance, Public Service, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
153. Reform within the System: Governance in Iraq and Lebanon
- Author:
- Amal Bourhrous, Shivan Fazil, Meray Maddah, and Dylan O'Driscoll
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The 2019 protests in Iraq and Lebanon revealed a widespread dissatisfaction with political systems based on sectarian and ethnosectarian power-sharing, which many saw as being responsible for a host of governance failures. This has given rise to demands for a wholesale change of the political systems in both countries. However, the dismantlement of identity-based power-sharing systems is a remote prospect—they are deeply entrenched, and change would depend on action from the very political elites that benefit from them. Instead, this SIPRI Policy Paper explores what can be done in the short term to address some of the key challenges confronting Iraq and Lebanon. In contexts where the political elites’ grip on the political system remains tight, every possible opportunity for reform must be grasped.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Governance, Reform, and Public Service
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Lebanon
154. Impacts of the War on the Telecommunications Sector in Yemen
- Author:
- Mansoor al-Bashiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The telecommunications and information technology sector in Yemen is a vital component of the country’s infrastructure and plays a critical role in economic growth. It is the second largest source of public revenue after the petroleum sector, and contributes important work opportunities, whether directly or indirectly, through its connections to other sectors of the national economy. From 2015 to 2019, the sector’s performance has varied due to the extraordinary circumstances Yemen has been going through. It is estimated that the conflict has caused about $4.1 billion in direct financial losses for the telecommunications sector due to electricity outages (at times caused by a lack of fuel), institutional fragmentation, and competing policies and financial demands by the authorities in Sana’a and Aden, as well as confiscation of assets and extortion. The sector has also lost a number of opportunities that may have otherwise been available if it were not for the outbreak of the conflict, like the development of licensing agreements and the progression to 4G technology. Investors in the telecommunications sector have been deterred from the Yemeni market despite its large size and the fact that many services are not currently being provided by the companies operating in the sector. The sector faces a large number of challenges, the most serious of which are: the unsuitability of the legal and institutional regulatory environments; fragmentation of public entities in the sector; unproductive accusations made by the parties to the conflict; the lack of separation between political, regulatory and operational roles within the sector; and the reliance on a weak and fragile infrastructure to provide these services. Other challenges include the restrictions imposed on importing equipment, difficulty accessing a number of districts and entire governorates to carry out necessary repairs, declining revenues for the companies, and the increase of fees being levied by both the authorities in Sana’a and in Aden, compounded by the population’s general impoverishment and limited purchasing power. To strengthen the role of Yemen’s telecommunications, there must be efforts in the short term to depoliticize the sector during the conflict, repair operator networks, introduce new services (such as video conferencing and digital financial services), and work to lower internet tariffs—this paper does not provide an analysis of how to achieve a viable mix of upgraded services and affordable prices while still maintaining the feasibility of new investments. In the medium and long term, efforts to draft new telecommunications laws must continue, in addition to separating regulatory and operational roles, developing the regulatory and institutional environment, encouraging private investment, and updating educational programs and university curricula to ensure that they are up-to-date with ongoing developments in the field of telecommunications and information technology. These curricula and programs must meet the local market’s needs for specialized labor.
- Topic:
- Economic Growth, Conflict, Information Technology, and Telecommunications
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
155. Solar-Powered Irrigation in Yemen: Opportunities, Challenges and Policies
- Author:
- Musaed M. Aklan and Helen Lackner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Yemen is one of the most water-scarce countries in the world, with renewable water resources currently capable of providing only 75 m3 per capita per year – well below the water scarcity threshold. And this volume is steadily dropping. The agricultural sector in Yemen is the dominant user of groundwater resources, accounting for around 90 percent of total consumption. Due to the current crisis, fuel required for pumps has become scarce and very expensive; as a result, solar energy has begun to play a role in the extraction and supply of groundwater for irrigation. However, there is concern about the misuse of this new technology. This study examines the current trend of solar-powered irrigation system (SPIS) use in Sana’a Basin, identifying the pros and cons of this approach. It presents the perspectives of farmers and experts in terms of what is happening and what should be done to maximize the benefits and minimize the negative impacts of SPIS. The incidence of SPIS installation is increasing at a rate of more than 4 percent annually. Farmers spoken to as a part of this study expressed enthusiasm to use SPIS and cited capital cost as the biggest obstacle to their acquiring this technology. This paper proposes governance and policy recommendations for overall water management and, in particular, for future studies and regulation of SPIS-driven groundwater use. Setting appropriate policies for water-pumping powered by renewable energy will help to conserve groundwater sources and sustainably preserve livelihoods.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Water, Renewable Energy, Solar Power, and Irrigation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
156. Local Economic Councils: A Tool to Improve Business Productivity in Yemen
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Even before the events of 2014 and 2015 that led Yemen into the ongoing civil war, its economy was fragile. The years of hardship that have haunted the country ever since have been devastating. Yemen is now rated as one of the hardest places in the world for businesses to operate and is last or near last in a host of global business competitiveness indexes. From January 25-27,2021 the seventh Development Champions Forum, held virtually, focused on this dire national situation. To help address local economic challenges, the Development Champions discussed the possibility of establishing Local Economic Councils. According to their analysis, between the existing community-level local development committees (which guide targeted, small scale infrastructure investment from development funds such as the Social Fund for Development and the World Bank) and the Supreme Economic Council (which guides sector-led state investment at a national level), a space exists for a governorate-level body to drive development by guiding investment to serve local needs and strengthen ties between the governorates and the private sector.
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, Business, Conflict, and Local Councils
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
157. Priorities for the Recovery and Reform of the Electricity Sector in Yemen
- Author:
- Akram M. Almohamadi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Electricity is the backbone of any economy and one of the necessities of modern life. Since even before the current war, poor electricity services in Yemen have been one of the key barriers to sustainable economic development and basic service provisions, such as water supply, health care, and education. This policy brief presents an overview of the electricity sector and its relevant indicators prior to the conflict. It then outlines the impact of the conflict on the sector, and concludes with a set of priorities for restoring the pre-war capacity of the electricity sector, then further reforming it to improve its performance. Immediate- to short-term recommendations include: adopting a realistic and practical recovery plan; securing funds for rehabilitating the infrastructure; reviewing the electricity tariff; reducing technical and non-technical electricity losses; purchasing electricity when needed through a competitive process and via least-cost options, such as gas and renewable energy; securing the fuel supply and the salaries of sector staff; resuming all suspended projects; finding sustainable and feasible solutions for the electricity supply in each governorate to avoid the challenges associated with the centralized grid; and installing sustainable stand-alone solar systems, compatible for connection to the national grid (when restored). The medium- to long-term priorities include specific recommendations under five categories, relating to: the legal and regulatory framework; institutional arrangements; capacity and performance; private sector participation; and technical issues. This policy brief was developed based on a more detailed research paper published under the same title by Rethinking Yemen’s Economy project in May 25, 2021.
- Topic:
- Reform, Economy, Conflict, Electricity, and Energy Sector
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
158. Socioeconomic Impacts of Climate Change in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Octavi Quintana
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The Mediterranean Basin enjoys very at- tractive geographical, climatic, and cultural features. It hosts a high-density population mainly in the coastal areas, of over 500 million people which has doubled in the last 40 years, and it is still increasing at a high pace. The region faces severe threats including water stress, impaired food production, food security, desertification, severe pollution to mention just a few. These threats have been exacerbated in the last decades by increased demography, migration to urban areas, tourism (the first tourist destination in the world), and very importantly, climate change. The Mediterranean suffers from an increase of temperature 20% higher than the world average. It is a real hotspot of climate change. The present monography, sponsored by the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed), addresses the socioeconomic impact of climate change. There are a lot of studies on the biophysical impact of climate change. Its socioeconomic impact has been less studied probably because of its complexity. Important knowledge gaps do exist. The purpose of gathering knowledge on the socioeconomic impact of climate change is to advise decision-makers on the difficult decisions to be taken to mitigate and adapt to climate change in a region facing severe threats that climate change only exacerbates. For decision-makers, the socioeconomic impact is more relevant than the biophysical impact of climate change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Pollution, and Socioeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean
159. Accountability in Policing COVID-19: Lessons from the Field
- Author:
- Anna Myriam Roccatello and Mohamed Suma
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- As countries around the world roll out their COVID-19 vaccination programs and gradually reopen their economies and borders, the coronavirus continues to ravage vulnerable communities. Moreover, these same communities have borne the brunt of the economic disruption caused by the pandemic, which decimated livelihoods, increased poverty, and exacerbated inequalities in many countries. Early in the pandemic, countries rushed to shut their borders and impose emergency measures, such as curfews, travel restrictions, and community lockdowns. States deployed security forces to enforce these measures, some of which resulted in widespread human rights violations, including torture, killings, and intimidation of persons perceived as failing to comply with their orders. Colombia, Kenya, Lebanon, and Uganda—all countries where ICTJ works—are among those whose security agencies weaponized their powers under these emergency measures and often used brutal means to keep people off the streets. While constitutional police forces committed the bulk of these abuses, a growing number of paramilitaries, citizen vigilantes, and other nonstate forces have also committed human rights violations while enforcing the emergency measures. However, the COVID-19 pandemic underscores states' obligation to protect the inherent right to life and the subsequent right to health. Moreover, national and international human rights laws allow states to temporarily suspend certain rights and invoke special powers that would be considered an infringement of civil liberties in normal situations. Thus, the suspension of those rights is justified by the need to protect the collective good. This paper analyzes the emerging trends of draconian regular policing and vigilante policing during the pandemic in Colombia, Kenya, Lebanon, and Uganda. The paper also describes how armed nonstate groups have come to exercise control in communities where there is no government presence to enforce emergency lockdown and other measures, with little regard for the principles of proportionality and non-discrimination. In all contexts, since the outbreak of the COVID-19, regular police and paramilitary forces have increased their powers, which they have abused extensively. As a result, some policing practices have become deadlier than the virus itself and have exposed the profound frailties of democratic governance.
- Topic:
- Reform, Criminal Justice, Crisis Management, Institutions, Police, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, Colombia, South America, and Lebanon
160. Women and COVID-19 in MENA
- Author:
- Amaney Jamal and Mary Clare Roche
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Arab Barometer
- Abstract:
- Key Findings: Women more concerned about COVID-19 than men COVID-19 increased family stress Perceptions of gender based violence tended to decrease during the pandemic Structural barriers to work more pressing than cultural barriers
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Women, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA
161. Iraqi diaspora mobilization and the future development of Iraq
- Author:
- Oula Kadhum
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Iraqi diaspora mobilization and the future development of Iraq – authored by Dr. Oula Kadhum, explores Iraqi diaspora mobilization before and after the 2003 invasion and fall of the regime of Saddam Hussein. It looks at the ways members of the diaspora sought to help in the rebuilding of their country of origin, at both the elite and grassroots levels, as well as investigating changes over time. Importantly, it analyses the obstacles that have hindered diaspora mobilization since 2003 and argues that the Iraqi diaspora is a valuable, yet largely untapped resource for Iraq.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, Politics, Diaspora, Resilience, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
162. What choices remain for the United States in Syria?
- Author:
- Nate Rosenblatt and Jomana Qaddour
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Syria is home to one of the world’s most complex conflicts. The chaos caused by the Syrian regime and its allies — within Syria, across the Middle East, and beyond — poses immediate and enduring threats. Considering its foreign policy promise to defend democracy and human rights, the Biden administration does not have the luxury of ignoring what happens in Syria. Accepting that there are fewer options for the United States today than there were ten years ago does not mean normalizing the Assad regime or turning a blind eye to Russian and Iranian efforts to tip the balance of power in the region. In a new issue brief from the Atlantic Council’s Syria program, “What Choices Remain for the United States in Syria?,” Nate Rosenblatt and Jomana Qaddour describe the challenges the United States faces in Syria, including Russia’s attempt to expand the UN Strategic Framework as well the struggle to keep the UN humanitarian border crossings open in northern Syria. The memo then lays out the three potential strategies in Syria: one prioritizing the withdrawal of US forces, a second protecting humanitarian access and ensuring progress on limited, critical files, and a third maintaining US support for, as well as coordination with, partners to dial up the pressure on the Syrian government and its allies. The paper ultimately argues that the Biden administration should seize this opportunity to establish a clear strategy in Syria by aligning its defense, development, and diplomatic capabilities with those of its global allies and partners to shape a better outcome in Syria.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Human Rights, International Organization, Politics, United Nations, Syrian War, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America
163. Generational Dynamics of Economic Crisis and Recovery: Prospects for Younger and Older Persons
- Author:
- Nicole Goldin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Economic shocks affect young and older age groups disproportionately and highlight the insecurity of the youth labor market and volatility of older people’s savings. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated youth labor market challenges and caused young people to either lose jobs or work fewer hours. It also undermined the financial security of older people who tend to own small businesses given that half of the small businesses either closed down or lost significant revenue during lockdowns. Furthermore, COVID-19 exacerbated the digital divide between generations. While younger people are more likely to be technologically savvy, older generations often lack digital literacy to adapt to online work or virtual communications platforms. Dr. Goldin argues that to alleviate the disproportionate suffering experienced by young and elderly age groups during the pandemic, policymakers should increase targeting of social-protection measures, facilitate private-sector investment in education and training, invest in improving digital services and infrastructure, ensure access to financial services, and collect age-disaggregated data on economic and COVID-related indicators.
- Topic:
- Women, Internet, Economic Growth, Youth, Resilience, COVID-19, Digital Policy, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Asia, Middle East, East Asia, and Latin America
164. Judgments by the Court of Justice of the EU on the EU’s Trade with Israel’s Disputed Territories
- Author:
- Rachel Frid de Vries
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The EU is one of the largest trading partners of the Disputed Territories (DTs) in the world. The Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) reaffirmed the EU’s differentiation policy between Israeli products from within or outside the DTs. This paper considers the aptness of the role played by the CJEU, the effects and effectiveness of the judgments, and their foreseeable significant implications for Israel.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, European Union, Trade, and Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU)
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
165. The Ministry of Regional Cooperation and Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking
- Author:
- Nimrod Goren
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- Among Israel’s many government ministries, one stands out in particular. It is small, its authority is limited, and many doubt its need. But it is tasked with realizing one of Israel’s greatest aspirations since its founding: Reshaping relations with the Palestinians and its other Arab neighbors through regional cooperation. The Ministry of Regional Cooperation was established in 1999 as a product of political bargaining. Then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak sought to find a job for Shimon Peres, the peace advocate whom he did not want as his foreign minister. Peres used the new ministry as a platform to advance his vision of a new Middle East, while Barak led an Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Government, Regional Cooperation, History, Domestic Politics, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
166. What Russian-Israeli cooperation in Syria?
- Author:
- Dima Course
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Since 2015, Russia has largely supported the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria against di- verse opposition. At the same time, Israel has continued its policy of limited military intervention – predominantly air strikes against Iranian targets and proxies, many of which are Russia’s partners in Syria. The Israeli strategy of attacking Iranian targets in Syria is not new. For example, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) destroyed Assad’s nuclear reactor in 2007. Rus- sia has also been present in Syria for a long time, but until 2015, its presence was limited and it did not play a significant role in relations with Israel. Since 2015, however, the situation has changed sig- nificantly. Russian aviation and air defence began op- erating actively on the side of Assad’s regime. From the beginning, the media in both Russia and Israel hypothesized that the activation of Russian forces in Syria would interfere with the activities of the Israeli Air Force. Moreover, Israeli officials regularly voiced complaints that the Russians were actually interfering and hindering IDF operations in Syria. At the same time, the two sides have cooperated to a degree, enabling frequent attacks by the Israeli Air Force against targets in Syria affiliated with Iran. This Policy Brief offers a comparative analysis of Russian and Israeli interests in the context of the Syr- ian conflict. It contends that cooperation between the two countries has been a win-win situation for both sides, while having little influence on Russian-Israeli relations more generally.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
167. Youth Wellbeing in the Occupied Palestinian Territory: An in-depth, multi-level and interdisciplinary study into wellbeing and gender equality among Palestinian youth
- Author:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- This study presents an important opportunity to fill a gap in knowledge by offering a critical understanding of the state of youth wellbeing in the Occupied Palestinian Territory through a comprehensive interdisciplinary and multi-level approach. By combining the economic, political and socio-cultural spheres and a macro (policy/institutional), meso (organizational) and micro (individual) level analysis, we can explore the root causes and complex dynamics of the processes of youth exclusion and inclusion from the labour market and civic/political life, while investigating the potentially transformative effect of youth agency. The study analyses wellbeing and gender relations for their importance, particularly in the context of the OPT, where youth are especially vulnerable and where wellbeing is threatened.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Governance, Youth, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
168. Still Treading Water: Reviewing six years of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism and the dire water situation in the Gaza Strip
- Author:
- Laila Barhoum
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Six years after the establishment of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism (GRM), people in Gaza continue to live on the brink of disaster as a result of 13 years of the Israeli blockade. The water, sanitation and health (WASH) sector remains significantly damaged, with Gaza facing the complete collapse of its wastewater treatment system. The reconstruction process is ongoing, but it is slow, costly, and hampers the humanitarian response. Six years after the establishment of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism (GRM), people in Gaza continue to live on the brink of disaster as a result of a 13 year blockade imposed by Israel. The water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) sector remains significantly damaged, with Gaza facing a stark deterioration of available WASH services at the community and household level. The reconstruction process is ongoing, but it is slow, costly, and hampers the humanitarian response. The COVID-19 pandemic has severely aggravated existing vulnerabilities, including access to water and sanitation. This strongly impacts the daily lives of over 2 million people living in the coastal enclave, of whom 1.5 million – or 75% – have been identified as being in need of humanitarian assistance. Oxfam has recently reviewed the challenges associated with the GRM and its impact on the WASH sector in Gaza. Its findings reveal that these challenges are an obstacle to the reconstruction of WASH infrastructure (including operation and maintenance), hindering efforts to address the increased needs of people in Gaza. Donors and UN agencies should consider the needs of people in Gaza today. Rather than continuing with the GRM, they should explore how they can improve their engagement to be able to challenge the Israeli access restrictions, work towards economic development, ensure accountability within access mechanisms, and facilitate inclusive Palestinian participation to access mechanisms and the reconstruction of Gaza.
- Topic:
- Development, Infrastructure, Conflict, COVID-19, and Humanitarian Response
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
169. Building a Strong and Independent Iraq: Policy Guidance for the Biden Administration
- Author:
- Abram N. Shulsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Formulating US policy toward Iraq can be a fraught matter, given all the debate and disagreement concerning the actions that brought us to the current situation. However, our policy must be formulated in light of it, regardless of views about our past actions. Policy formulation should begin with the realization that Iran has gained a predominant political and military influence in Iraq. Despite efforts of past PM Adel Abdul Mahdi and current PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, many of the militias comprising the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) still answer to Iran, not the Iraqi government. Iran exerts widespread influence throughout the political class. Economically, Iraq remains dependent on Iran for energy;1 religious tourism from Iran to the holy sites in Karbala and Najaf is an important source of revenue; and Iran has flooded markets with cheap food and consumer goods. Although Iraqi oil production has rebounded, the economy remains relatively moribund and the level of basic public services is poor. (That Iraq flares off its natural gas at the same time it is importing it from Iran to produce electricity2 highlights the economic disfunction.) Popular discontent boiled over in 2019, leading to widespread protests. The protests took on an anti-Iranian aspect, and Iran-aligned PMF units attacked the protestors.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Economics, Government, Politics, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America
170. 2020 Country Brief: Afghanistan
- Author:
- Third Way
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- After 19 years of war in Afghanistan and a peace agreement signed with the Taliban, it’s time for the United States to withdraw. Although the United States has slowly reduced troops in Afghanistan, the Trump Administration has left the remaining troops vulnerable to the Taliban and to Putin’s Russia, which is paying bounties to Afghans for murdering American soldiers.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Political stability, Military Intervention, Peace, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
171. 2020 Country Brief: Iran
- Author:
- Third Way
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- A nuclear-armed Iran is an unacceptable threat to America and our allies. But because of Donald Trump, we are closer to—not farther from—this nightmare scenario. Donald Trump chose a bellicose, chaotic, go-it-alone strategy toward Iran. He blew up the Iran Deal, the international agreement that froze Iran’s nuclear weapons program, because it was negotiated by Barack Obama. When he blew it up, our European allies were shocked—and for the first time ever, they sided with Iran to preserve the deal over the Trump Administration. And that’s what just happened again at the United Nations in August of this year. Now it will be more difficult to stop Iran’s malign activity in the future. President Obama brought international pressure to bear to force Iran into a difficult choice: they could have an economy or nuclear weapons, but not both. Iran chose an economy, and in doing so, accepted restrictions on its nuclear program and submitted to international inspections. In return, the United States, our European allies, Russia, and China began to resume economic activity with Iran. After freezing Iran’s nuclear program, the United States could have begun dealing with Iran’s other malign activity. Unfortunately, against the advice of his senior national security advisors and allies, President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran Deal. Then he threatened our negotiating partners with sanctions for attempting to salvage the deal. And when that didn’t work, in January, he ordered a unilateral strike to kill one of Iran’s senior military leaders, Qasem Soleimani, risking outright war. Despite all this, he signaled he was open to negotiations with Iran but has not indicated what a successful agreement would include. Trump’s chaotic, bellicose strategy has yielded no positive results. Future policymakers will need to rebuild the coalition to deal with Iran and develop a long-term strategy to get Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, end its support for terrorists, and become a responsible global player.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
172. Arab Youth Futures: No Lost Generation
- Author:
- Florence Gaub
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Young Arabs (those aged between 15 and 35) are often seen as a generation beset by hopelessness, stuck between dreams of emigration and the reality of violence and unemployment. This impression does not come out of nowhere: the last decade took a heavy toll on this generation – it was during their childhood and adolescence, between 2013 and 2019, that the region suffered the highest number of terrorism casualties, that three wars interrupted the education of 13 million children and that riots and repression led to economic losses of $600 billion following the Arab Spring. But how much does this generation feel that they can change matters and create a better future? Answering this question was the main objective of a survey co-organised by the EUISS, the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Arab Research and Advocacy Bureau. Conducted in Egypt, Libya, Morocco and the West Bank of the Palestinian Territories between January and April 2021, the survey was based on qualitative focus-group discussions and interviews with young urban dwellers, allowing for a deeper understanding of how this generation truly feels about the future. The selected countries were chosen because access to them was most feasible in terms of financial resources and political stability. The survey asked about a sense of agency – the feeling of mastering one’s own fate–, about the respondents’ general disposition towards the future – whether characterised by optimism or pessimism – and about their key grievances. The results belie the perception that young people in the region have a negative vision of the future, instead highlighting a determination to live more independent autonomous lives, a relative optimism (unusual in younger generations – optimism is normally a feature of older age groups), and concerns over issues that will be of particular importance in their future, such as healthcare and political representation. This shift in attitudes towards the future may be ascribed to a combination of several factors: longer life cycles, education, digital connectivity, the Arab Spring and its aftershocks have all spawned a generation that want to be in charge of their own lives rather than passive spectators of events beyond their control. This means that regional governments, and Europeans wishing to assist them, will have to provide the space and opportunity for this generation to realise their ambitions. The Brief first analyses the survey findings on agency and optimism, then takes a look at the most important grievances, and concludes with policy implications.
- Topic:
- Government, Youth, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, and North Africa
173. Creativity Wanted: Countering the extraterritorial effects of US sanctions
- Author:
- Clara Portela
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Scarcely familiar with sanctions as a policy tool, much of the European public has followed the headlines about international sanctions with some puzzlement. After the UN lifted sanctions on Iran following the conclusion of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), why was it necessary to create a channel for bilateral trade, the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX), following the US withdrawal from the deal in 2018? Why is Iran insisting that the US lift sanctions ‘in practice, not verbally or on paper’? How did the US Senate approval of new legislation targeting Nord Stream 2, a pipeline under construction between Russia and Germany, bring work to an immediate standstill in late 2019? Why do European banks and private companies fear the US Department of the Treasury’s sanctions enforcement agency, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)? If sanctions regimes are endowed with humanitarian exemptions, why do humanitarian agencies report difficulties in getting aid to places like Syria ? As it turns out, these are ramifications of the same phenomenon: the extraterritorial effects of US sanctions. The present Brief examines these effects, describing why they pose a challenge to the EU. It then outlines the responses that have been activated or are being contemplated to counter them, explaining why an effective remedy remains elusive. The Brief concludes by indicating possible ways forward.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Sanctions, and Transnational Actors
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Syria, and North America
174. Curse or Blessing? How cheap oil influences conflict dynamics
- Author:
- Matteo Ilardo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- When the price of oil goes down, there is often a sigh of relief among oil-importing countries, as cheap oil means a boost for the economy and increased savings for consumers and businesses. As a result, most of Europe tends to notice price shocks only when prices go up: consumers are squeezed while producers accumulate enormous wealth. Yet, for oil-exporting countries cheap oil means increased poverty and tighter budgets – a recipe for instability and conflict. This Conflict Series Brief analyses the effects of the recent pandemic-induced oil price shock on three vulnerable, conflict-affected countries. This is done by testing the two competing theories of the resource curse and of the rentier state, each offering a different interpretation of the oil-conflict nexus: The resource curse theory posits that an abundance of natural resources, and in particular oil, raises the probability, frequency, and intensity of conflict. The rentier state theory sees the presence of oil as having a positive effect on peace, as regimes use revenues to either buy off political opposition or suppress it. The recent price crash and its effects on conflicts in South Sudan, Libya and Iraq provide empirical support to the analysis. This Brief argues that both the stabilising and destabilising mechanisms identified in the two grand narratives are simultaneously at play in oil-rich countries. It shows that oil prices occupy a central role in determining which theory provides the most accurate outcome prediction. As a result, we hope to get a better understanding of the often-counterintuitive role that the resource plays in the onset of civil war. Building on the experience of the 2020 pandemic price plunge, the Brief ends with an overview of the future challenges that cheap oil will entail for producers and for Europe as oil demand peaks and the world moves away from fossil fuels.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Energy Policy, Oil, War, Natural Resources, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, and North Africa
175. How the Islamic State Sees the Future: Why the end of times does not mean the end
- Author:
- Florence Gaub
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- One would not exactly think of the Islamic State (IS) as a future-oriented organisation: it uses medieval-sounding language and barbaric methods and preaches an archaic lifestyle. In reality, however, it is very much a forward-looking organisation with clear ideas not just on what the future will bring, but on what it should bring. In fact, it is this attitude towards the future that has not only enabled its past successes, but also allowed the organisation to persist and endure since losing its territory in Syria and Iraq – and, most importantly, what will determine its next steps and ambition. Understanding how IS conceives its own future will enable law enforcement authorities to take the necessary precautions ahead of time. This Brief first outlines why it is crucial to understand how the future as an organising principle shapes the strategy and posture of terrorist organisations, and shows that terrorist organisations lacking such a concept will lose traction faster than those that do. It goes on to examine IS’s future concept pre-and post-loss of its territory and to elaborate why it was and is an attractive future. Lastly, it seeks to anticipate the future trajectory IS will take based on its articulation of an eschatological vision of the future.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Islamic State, and Future
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North Africa, and Syria
176. Power play: Europe’s climate diplomacy in the Gulf
- Author:
- Cinzia Bianco
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Gulf monarchies believe hydrocarbons will continue to be a fundamental – albeit shrinking – source of revenues for decades. But, as shown by Saudi Arabia’s net-zero pledge, they now see economic and political opportunities in embracing the green energy transition. If the EU is to achieve its climate and geopolitical goals, it will need to substantially increase its engagement with Gulf states on the European Green Deal. Electricity interconnection and green hydrogen are the two most promising fields of clean energy cooperation between the sides. Europeans should not cave to international pressure to lower their ambitions on carbon taxation, including the carbon border adjustment mechanism, as this remains a powerful incentive for hydrocarbons producers to make the transition to cleaner energy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Engagement, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
177. Useful enemies: How the Turkey-UAE rivalry is remaking the Middle East
- Author:
- Asli Aydıntaşbaş and Cinzia Bianco
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are engaged in a decade-long feud that is reshuffling the geopolitical order in the Middle East and North Africa. They see each other as existential rivals and are waging a series of proxy wars between the Horn of Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Their rivalry also plays out in the halls of Washington and Brussels, the global media discourse, the energy industry, and, lately, ports and the high seas. Europe should avoid being sucked into this power struggle to redefine the Middle East and North Africa. Instead of using the UAE to push back against Turkey or vice versa, Europe should develop its own strategy on their rivalry. Europe should establish a NATO deconfliction mechanism, push ahead with the political process in Libya, and design a constructive new framework to insulate European-Turkey relations from the rivalry.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and United Arab Emirates
178. The evolution of US strategic priorities
- Author:
- Carl Bildt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The Biden administration’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance reflects an evolution in US strategic thinking and policy priorities. The document shows how the administration intends to shift away from America Alone and towards America and its Allies. But the optimism and confidence the US expressed in 2015 has been replaced by deep concern over a range of strategic trends. The US will now prioritise strategic competition with China, a new approach to trade, the rise of technology, the defence of democracy, the urgent climate and health crises, and efforts to avoid ‘forever wars’ in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Health, Science and Technology, Democracy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
179. The EU-MENA Partnership: Time for a Reset
- Author:
- Marc Otte
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The storm raging across the Southern Neighbourhood, as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is also known in European terminology, is not about to subside any time soon. Beyond crisis management, current dysfunctions need a long-term, sustained and transformative approach. That was the spirit of the Barcelona Declaration and the original concept of the European neighbourhood policy. Obviously, it didn’t work as expected. The question is why, and how to put the train back on the tracks.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa
180. National Oil Companies and Energy Transition in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Laury Haytayan, Patrick Heller, David Manley, and Ben Potter
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- As the world looks toward an energy future that is less reliant on fossil fuels, governments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region must adapt. The petroleum sector is a major employer in the region, the primary source of fiscal revenue, the dominant generator of exports and the source of energy that powers economies. With the pace of energy transition uncertain, a growing number of oil companies are revising downward their long-term assumptions about fossil fuel consumption and prices, and private capital has been progressively moving away from the sector. This transition creates opportunities for cleaner and more reliable energy for citizens in the MENA, a region rich in renewable energy potential. MENA governments and their national oil companies (NOCs) recognize the need for adaptation. Several countries have launched vision statements or reform plans aimed at diversifying NOC portfolios, increasing efficiency and reducing their exposure to market decline. This briefing derives from in-depth research and interviews on the challenges and reform plans of three MENA NOCs (Saudi Aramco, Qatar Petroleum and Algeria’s Sonatrach) and draws out implications for other NOCs in the region. The authors seek to inform the strategies of governments and NOCs on how to manage NOC portfolios and the evolution of state-NOC accountability mechanisms and hope that nongovernmental analysts and civil society organizations will use this briefing as a tool to help understand and scrutinize public reform plans.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
181. Qatar Petroleum and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative: Implications for State Companies in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Kaisa Toroskainen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- In many resource-rich countries, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) play a major role in collecting taxes and payments, selling oil, and contributing to government revenue from extractive industries. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, SOEs often control the end-to-end value chain of extraction. This briefing explores how becoming an Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) supporting company can facilitate transparency of SOEs from non-EITI implementing countries in the MENA region. The EITI is a global standard to promote the open and accountable management of extractive resources. Fifty-four countries currently implement the EITI and commit to a set of disclosures along the extractive industry value chain as defined in the EITI Standard. Beyond national EITI implementation, extractive companies can become EITI supporting companies by committing to a set of expectations to advance sustainable development, transparent management of natural resources and by supporting the initiative financially. In this briefing, the author has provided an overview of how becoming an EITI supporting company has supported Qatar Petroleum (QP) in improving reporting and transparency, with a view of providing relevant lessons to the EITI and other SOEs in the MENA region. The briefing concludes with recommendations to the EITI, QP and other SOEs in the MENA region.
- Topic:
- Oil, Natural Resources, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and Qatar
182. Likely Escalation: Potential war over Syria’s Daraa Province after Russian roadmap
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Between August 2and August 18, clashes erupted between the Syrian regime army and the armed opposition groups in Daraa province in southern Syria, after the Syrian regime threatened military action against the groups if they do not commit to a roadmap proposed by Russia, which eventually aims to help the Syrian army retake control on the southern parts of the country.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Refugees, Syrian War, Armed Conflict, and Escalation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, Syria, and Daraa
183. A Shiite Division: The repercussions of the possible postponement of the Iraqi parliamentary elections
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On August 19, the Iraqi President called for a national dialogue regarding the upcoming elections, expressing his concerns about the challenges holding the elections on time. Thus, Iraq once again faces uncertainty regarding the fate of the upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 10, 2021. A number of the Iraqi political forces announced their desire to postpone the elections, in support of the position of the leader of the Sadrist movement, while other forces oppose this approach and stand by holding the elections on their scheduled date.
- Topic:
- Elections, Muqtada al-Sadr, Parliament, and Shiism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
184. Afghanistan’s Ripples: Can the US withdraw from Iraq?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The Taliban’s control of Kabul and the extension of its sovereignty over the majority of Afghanistan, following the withdrawal of US forces, have raised debates regarding the fate of the US forces in Iraq. Is Washington going to withdraw from Iraq as well, particularly in light of previous US threats to do so, or will the Afghan experience not be repeated in Iraq?
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, and Iraq War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and United States of America
185. Potential Cooperation: Iranian Possible Cooperation with Taliban to Curb Threats
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The situation in Afghanistan, after the Taliban took over the country, is the second key issue that the new Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi’s, foreign policy agenda, after reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Taliban, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, South Asia, and Middle East
186. Common Perceptions: Discovering the consensus between King Abdullah and Putin regarding the future of Southern Syria
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- A Jordanian-Russian summit was held on August 23 in Moscow, during which several files pertaining to Lebanon and Palestine were discussed. However, the crisis in Southern Syria was on top of the list of discussions. This summit was preceded by several Jordanian decisions, which are believed to mark the beginning of some change in Jordanian policy toward Syria and toward the region in general.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Syrian War, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, Syria, and Jordan
187. The 7th Round of Talks: Iran’s foot-dragging over the return to nuclear talks
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- French President Emanuel Macron, on September 6, held his sec-ond official phone call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi since his ascent to presidency, to discuss the future of the Vienna talks aiming to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. Six rounds of talks have been held so far In Vienna.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
188. Mutual Concessions: Did al-Kadhimi’s visit to Tehran achieve its objectives?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On September 12, 2021, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, led a high-profile government delegation on an official one-day visit to Tehran that came upon invitation from Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Besides Raisi, al-Kadhimi also met Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and other senior officials.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Domestic Politics, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
189. Maritime Dispute: Lebanon’s Options for Responding to Israel’s Deal with Halliburton
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- US-based oilfield services group Halliburton said on September 14 that it was awarded a contract to drill as many as five wells off the coast of Israel. Halliburton, which will conduct the work for London-based Energean, will deliver all services including project management, production enhancement, and subsea services. Halliburton previously executed a four-well campaign at Energean’s Karish and Karish North gas fields offshore Israel.
- Topic:
- Oil, Economy, Business, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
190. The Reappearance of Consensus: Implications of Israel-Russia Agreements over Syria
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett held their first face-to-face talks on October 22 in Sochi, Russia. The summit talks, called by Putin, were slated for only two hours but lasted for about five hours, reflecting the two sides’ interest in enhancing coordination about several common issues, and warming up the Israeli-Russian relations which cooled down since Bennett rose to power.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Syrian War, and Consensus
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
191. Incessant Tension: Uncovering the Turkish attempt to bust an Israeli spy ring
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On October 21, Daily Sabah announced that an Israeli spy ring, consisting of 15 agents, was arrested in Turkey early in October. The Turkish newspaper affiliated with the Turkish government and JDP said that the spy ring targeted Israel's opponents in Turkey. A day later, the newspaper affirmed that one of the arrested agents collected information about Palestinians residing in Turkey, and about Turkish military industries. However, Ankara did not officially announce the news, while Israel denied the accusation. A few weeks earlier, the pro-Hamas Shehab News agency announced that seven Palestinian PNA and Mossad agents were arrested in Turkey allegedly for spying on certain Palestinian residents in Turkey.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Espionage
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
192. Rebuffing Accusations: Implications of Esmail Qaani to Iraq Following Attempted Assassination of al-Kadhimi
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Iraqi media outlets such as Dijlah, Al-Rafidain TV and Al-Sharqiya, on November 7, reported that Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Force, a branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), had arrived in the Iraqi capital on November 7 on an unannounced visit. Qaani met with the chiefs of Shi’ite militant groups, as well as Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and the Iraqi President Barham Salih. Qaani expressed rejection of the assassination attempt on al-Kadhimi. Qaani’s visit was part of Iran’s efforts to bring its Iraqi armed groups under control in exchange for giving their parties a share in the next government.
- Topic:
- Government, Non State Actors, Media, and Assassination
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
193. Peace and illicit drugs at the margins: A borderland view of Afghanistan’s SDG 16
- Author:
- Orzala Nemat
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan is in the process of developing its national goals and targets in relation to the global sustainable development goals (SDGs). There are 17 SDGs which have been broken down into a total of 169 targets. But how are these globally agreed goals being addressed in Afghanistan? In what ways do they specifically address the particular political challenges that Afghanistan faces, and the geographical divisions of the country? Drawing from long-term research on the drug economy and the more recent research of the Drugs & (dis)order project in three borderland provinces in Afghanistan – Badakhshan, Nangarhar and Nimroz – this briefing paper argues that the current A-SDG 16 fails both to identify the challenges that these borderlands pose to the achievement of SDG 16, and to recognise the opportunities that they might offer for peace building.
- Topic:
- Development, Borders, Drugs, Illegal Trade, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
194. The Middle East: From a decade of conflict to an age of reconciliation
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Swift reconciliations initiated by regimes with the purpose of cutting their losses and shoring up their own sources of power are not enough to establish enduring stability and a genuinely cooperative regional order.
- Topic:
- Political stability, Conflict, Reconciliation, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
195. The crisis of the Turkish lira: Toward economic collapse or a new economic model?
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As with any economic or fiscal policy, Erdogan is taking a risk, betting that his vision can turn the Turkish economy around. The only problem is that with presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2023, he has just 18 months to prove the efficacy of his policies.
- Topic:
- Economy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Fiscal Policy, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
196. Israel and the Persian Gulf: A Source of Security or Conflict?
- Author:
- Steven Simon
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- • In the current geopolitical context, the Abraham Accords, which normalized Israel’s relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain during the final months of the Trump administration, could prove destabilizing by lowering the bar for Israeli military action against Iran.1 • The destabilizing potential of the Abraham Accords will increase if talks to revive the Iran nuclear agreement collapse. This, in turn, suggests that revival of the accord, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, remains important for U.S. security and regional stability. • By securing the JCPOA and supporting diplomacy between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the U.S. maximizes the viability and utility of the Abraham Accords as well as their compatibility with a new and more inclusive regional security architecture. But supporting only the Abraham Accords without reentering the JCPOA and encouraging multilateral dialogue among the Arab Gulf states and Iran could transform the accords from a potential strategic asset to a liability.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Regional Integration
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Persian Gulf
197. Will a Military Withdrawal from the Middle East Leave a Vacuum?
- Author:
- Mark Perry
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- • The Biden administration must not allow disputes among combatant commanders about resource allocation to dictate decisions concerning U.S. force posture. The White House has acknowledged that the Middle East is no longer as central a concern to our national security as it once was and that the U.S. must reshape its military presence in the region. • Fears that Russia or China might take advantage of a reduction in the U.S. military presence in the Middle East are exaggerated. China and Russia have both benefited from America’s willingness to shoulder the security burden of the Middle East. • Washington should complement its reduced military presence in the Middle East with greater diplomatic involvement. The objectives should be retaining influence and advancing U.S. interests in a peaceful and stable environment.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
198. China and the Persian Gulf in the Aftermath of a U.S. Withdrawal
- Author:
- Steven Simon
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
- Abstract:
- • Given longstanding U.S. economic ties to the Arab Gulf states, the withdrawal of the U.S. military would not mean the United States is departing from the region. Even if it did signify that, however, China would be unlikely to fill the vacuum. A U.S. decision to maintain a military presence in the region should therefore not be based on fear of a strategic vacuum that China will fill to America’s disadvantage. • The United States should leverage China’s interest in stable cross–Gulf relations by working in tandem with Beijing to encourage dialogue and confidence-building measures. • The United States should monitor Chinese military deployments to the Indian Ocean and work with Gulf partners to set limits on China’s military use of air and naval bases. This would serve as a confidence-building measure and ensure that the Gulf does not become an arena for competition amid heightened Sino–American tensions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Military Affairs, and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Persian Gulf, and United States of America
199. Iran’s Resistance Axis Rattled by Divisions: Asaib Ahl al-Haq’s Leader Rejects the Ceasefire in Iraq
- Author:
- Jacob Lees Weiss
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- On December 20, 2020, 21 Katyusha rockets struck the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, breaking an Iranian-sponsored ceasefire in Iraq for a second time (U.S. Central Command, December 23, 2020). The Iraqi security forces later arrested a member of the Iraqi political and militant organization Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), Hussam al-Azirjawi, after finding conclusive evidence of his involvement in the attack (al-Hurra, December 26, 2020). Following al-Azirjawi’s arrest, multiple widely-shared clips on social media appeared to show a large mobilization of armed AAH militants in East Baghdad. A further clip showing masked AAH gunmen threatening to attack Iraqi security forces on command from AAH leader, Qais al-Khazali (al-Arabiya, December 25 2020). These arrests and video clips reveal that AAH has begun to show increasing signs of dissent from the party line set by Iran and its most loyal proxy in Iraq, Kata’ib Hezbollah.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Conflict, Militias, and Resistance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
200. Access to Data on Children in Turkey: An Evaluation Based on the Urban95 Project Experience
- Author:
- Bürge Elvan Erginli and Gizem Fidan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- Nowadays, the need for the use of data in developing an accurate, effective and measurable urban policy is being voiced by many local administrations and civil society organizations, and as a matter of fact, some local administrations have already increased their efforts for data production and use. However, organizations face with certain problems in regard to accessing, obtaining and generating systematic data. The purpose of this report is to put forward these problems along with their reasons and to offer solutions by focusing specifically on data regarding early childhood period.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Governance, Children, Urban, and Data
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean