Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: Iraq

401. Turkey, The United States And Iraq: Continuing Differences

Author:: Baris Omali
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: On October 7, the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA), dominated by the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) approved a resolution authorizing the government to send Turkish troops to Iraq. After the 358 to 183 vote, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan commented that Turkey had “come to the decision that it can't totally fulfill its duty as a neighbor in this big transformation process of Iraq with only political, humanitarian and economic support, without military contributions.” Although over 60 percent of the Turkish public were opposed to deployment, Erdogan committed his personal prestige and unchallenged authority over JDP parliamentarians to ensure a positive vote in contrast to the parliamentary reverse on March 1.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

402. Seeking Redefinition: U.S.-Turkish Relations After Iraq

Author:: Bulent Aliriza
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: It has been three months since the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TGNA) failed to muster the appropriate number of votes to allow the United States to open a northern front through Turkey against Iraq. In retrospect it is clear that the March 1 vote reflected the public opposition to the imminent conflict, the perceptible ambivalence of the powerful military establishment and its reluctance to provide an unambiguous recommendation - in particular at the National Security Council (NSC) meeting one day before the vote - and the attitude of President Ahmet Necdet Sezer. It also reflected the inability of the governing Justice and Development Party (JDP) to overcome its deep misgivings about the war to give a sufficiently clear lead.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

403. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2003

Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Conference Board
Abstract:: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in February.The leading index fell in February for the first time since September 2002. Uncertainty over war in Iraq, as well as severe winter weather in February, is reflected in the widespread weakness, particularly in stock prices, consumer expectations, and the labor market. Some of these weaknesses have persisted through March.More generally, the leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend over the past 15 months with a balance between rising and falling components. The index fell in the third quarter of 2002, rose in the fourth quarter, and is now declining again in the first quarter.After flattening in the fourth quarter of last year, the coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 in January and held that level in February (with a decline in employment offsetting the gains in income, production, and sales). At this point, the leading index is suggesting that economic growth may be on the sluggish side in the second quarter.
Topic:: Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States and Iraq

404. Winning the Peace: Managing a Successful Transition in Iraq

Author:: Richard Murphy
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Winning the peace in Iraq – assuming the current regime will be displaced by war or by other means – will require successful management of several challenges. Chief among these is building the necessary consensus on a common vision for the future of Iraq. In this connection, three interrelated issues merit the highest priority attention: power sharing arrangements, Iraq's economy and oil sector, and regional stability.
Topic:: Peace Studies and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

405. The Defense Monitor: Little Room in Politics for the Facts of the Matter

Author:: Philip E. Coyle, Rachel Stohl, Winslow Wheeler, Theresa Hitchens, Victoria Garcia, Colin Robinson, Krista Nelson, and Jeffrey Lewis
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: Few things are more routinely abused than facts when people in government — any party, any branch — set out to make a decision. I've been reminded of this truth watching the current administration parry revelations that it manipulated “facts” about weapons of mass destruction as a pretext for the war against Iraq that Congress authorized a year ago this past week. But I'd learned it the hard way much earlier. During a 31-year career as an evaluator for the General Accounting Office and a staffer for four different U.S. senators from both parties, I spent a lot of time trying to use facts to influence decisions made by the U.S. government. The facts took a beating all too often.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: United States and Iraq

406. The Defense Monitor: Liberation and Occupation in Iraq

Author:: Michael Donovan
Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: S of this writing, 39 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq in the 10 weeks following the declared conclusion of the campaign to over throw Saddam Hussein on May 1. This fact stands in sharp contrast to the optimistic pre-war rhetoric of the George W. Bush administration regarding the “liberation” of Iraq and testifies to the arduous road that lies ahead.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and War
Political Geography:: United States and Iraq

407. The Defense Monitor: The World At War

Author:: Col. Daniel Smith
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: At the start of 2003, the United States remains focused on fighting global terrorism in general even as it zeroes in on Iraq as the nexus of evil. But a number of factors in play today make international support for such a venture less effusive than in 1990-91, when the last anti-Saddam “coalition of the willing” formed. Many economies, including those of three of the four big financial supporters of the 1990-91 war — Japan, Germany, and Saudi Arabia — are weaker. Any war would be relatively more expensive. Suspicions about U.S. motives, fueled by the Bush administration's initial unilateralism, remain alive despite Washington's patient work in obtaining a UN Security Council resolution on new inspections. Germany has declared it will provide no forces; use of Saudi Arabian airbases to launch combat missions against Iraq remains unclear; and troop contributions, as well as moral support, from other Arab states such as Egypt and Syria may not materialize.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Iraq, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt

408. Building bridges? What role for the EU in post-war Iraq?

Author:: Catriona Gourlay, Catriona Mace, and Jocelyn Mawdsley
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Security Information Service
Abstract:: Now that the war in Iraq is officially over, the EU must consider what role it can play in post-war reconstruction. Thus far the Union has reacted swiftly to the humanitarian crisis but not yet defined the part that it will play in the stabilisation and institution building processes. With the US announcement that an interim administration should be in place in Iraq by June the pressure is on to define the EU's role in the reconstruction of Iraq and build bridges within its own CFSP.
Topic:: Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Iraq and Europe

409. China Brief, Beijing studies the U.S. war in Iraq

Author:: Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, Richard D. Fisher, and Wangchuk Meston
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Chinese strategic and military experts are scrutinizing the U.S. war in Iraq, and for several reasons. First, if American and British forces become bogged down in their effort to liquidate the regime of Saddam Hussein, then it is much less likely that Washington will soon target other rogue regimes with weapons of mass destruction, such as North Korea, a Chinese ally.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: China, Iraq, America, Washington, Israel, and North Korea

410. Toward a More Secure America: Grounding U.S. Policy in Global Realities

Author:: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, and Linda Gerber
Publication Date:: 11-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: In just two years the Bush administration has squandered the sympathy our country received from the rest of the world in the wake of the September 11 attacks, when the French daily Le Monde declared "We are all Americans now." Without reducing the threat of international terrorism, the administration has pursued a bullying form of unilateral militarism, which has belittled the United Nations, lampooned traditional allies, and offended Muslims around the globe. These actions have made Americans less secure and the world a more dangerous place. In Iraq, the unauthorized invasion and ill-conceived occupation have broadened the recruitment base for extremist organizations, created a magnet for terrorist infiltration, and increased the risks of terrorist attack at home and abroad. U.S. troops face continuous attack there and in Afghanistan. The enormous military, economic, and political costs of occupying Iraq are depleting American power and global leadership.
Topic:: Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, and North America

411. Unproven: The Controversy over Justifying War in Iraq

Author:: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, and Linda Gerber
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: The failure of U.S. and British forces in Iraq to find evidence of weapons of mass destruction has sparked controversy on both sides of the Atlantic and in the wider international community. Two contending explanations have been offered for why the Bush administration made apparently questionable claims about weapons of mass destruction. The first alleges an intelligence failure. The best analysts in the CIA simply had no foolproof way of discerning what Saddam had. They gave the administration a wide-ranging set of estimates, from benign to worst-case, and, given the way bureaucracies behave, the president's advisors adopted the worse case scenario. The second claim, more odious in form and substance, is that the administration inflated and manipulated uncertain data, possibly even requesting that material sent to it be redone to fit preconceived notions. The Bush administration has gone to great pains to reassert that it stands by its previous pronouncements that prohibited weapons will be located in due time.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

412. End Game? Removing Sanctions in Iraq

Author:: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, and Linda Gerber
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: The Anglo-American proposal now before the Security Council calls for an immediate end to UN sanctions. The lifting of sanctions is necessary to clarify procedures for the resumption of Iraqi oil exports and to remove trade and investment barriers that impede Iraq's economic recovery. The stakes in this debate go far beyond the question of freeing trade, however. Fundamental issues of international law also hang in the balance. The verification of Iraq's disarmament, the UN role in Iraq's reconstruction and political transition, the prospects for restraining weapons proliferation in the region, and the fate of hundreds of billions of dollars of debt and compensation claims—all hinge on how sanctions are lifted.
Topic:: Security, Political Economy, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

413. Contested Case: Do the Facts Justify the Case for War in Iraq?

Author:: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, and Linda Gerber
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: The United States, the United Kingdom, and other nations claim that Iraq poses an imminent threat to international security because it has weapons of mass destruction and operational connections to the Al Qaeda terrorist network. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell asserted in his presentation to the Security Council on 5 February that Iraq has made no effort to disarm and is concealing efforts to redevelop weapons of mass destruction. Powell restated old allegations that the United States had made prior to the 8 November passage of Resolution 1441. He presented new intelligence about Iraqi efforts to conceal its weapons capabilities, and he reiterated previous information about the likely existence of chemical and biological agents from the 1990s, but he did not prove that there is a grave new threat from Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Nor did he show a link between Iraq and September 11, or an operational connection between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda.
Topic:: Terrorism, United Nations, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, and Middle East

414. UN Weapons Inspections in Iraq: A Progress Report

Author:: Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, Linda Gerber, and David Cortwright
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: In their first two months of activity inspectors with the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have received unfettered access to Iraqi facilities and have been able to conduct more than 350 on-site inspections. To date no weapons of mass destruction have been discovered. UNMOVIC chairman Dr. Hans Blix told the Security Council on 9 January, "If we had found any 'smoking gun' we would have reported it to the Council . . . We have not submitted any such reports." IAEA director general Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei was more explicit in reporting that 'no evidence of ongoing prohibited nuclear or nuclear-related activities has been detected.
Topic:: United Nations and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

415. Non–Compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention: Lessons from and for Iraq

Author:: Jean Pascal Zanders, John Hart, Frida Kulah, and Richard Guthrie
Publication Date:: 10-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Since the end of military action in Iraq and the formation of the Coalition Provisional Authority in May 2003, most debate on the future of Iraq has focused on the short-term problems of governance, internal security and economic reconstruction in that country. In addition to the immediate problems, there is also a need to address long-term issues, such as what role Iraq will play in multilateral bodies. Although some issues can only be resolved in the long term, others will require initial decisions to be taken in the near future. In the very long term (measured in terms of decades) there is no option other than for Iraq to be involved in multilateral controls on chemical weapons (CW). However, in the medium term (measured in years) it is unclear what the best method would be to take Iraq from its current situation—as an occupied state with, at the very least, a past CW programme of which knowledge is incomplete—to a new situation where an Iraqi Government commits Iraq to membership of and adherence to multilateral disarmament regimes.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Human Welfare, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Iraq and Arab Countries

416. Armament and Disarmament in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Author:: Zdzislaw Lachowski, Björn Hagelin, Sam Perlo-Freeman, Petter Stålenheim, Dmitri Trofimov, and Alyson J. K. Bailes
Publication Date:: 07-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The international attention paid to the nations of the South Caucasus region and Central Asia—a group of post-Soviet states beyond Europe's conventional frontiers but included in the Conference on/Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE/OSCE)—has been fitful at best over the past decade. During the last years of the 20th and at the start of the 21st century, after the conflicts in Georgia and Nagorno-Karabakh became (at least partly) 'frozen', security concerns about the regions tended to decline and to become overshadowed both by 'oil diplomacy' and by concern about developments within Russia itself, in Chechnya and Dagestan. In 2002–2003 a constellation of changes in the outside world has started to reverse this pattern. Chechnya is no longer a regular topic of high-level political debate between Russia and the West, and President Vladimir Putin has played the anti-terrorist card with some success to secure his freedom to deal with it as an internal security matter. The factors prompting greater international attention to Russia's south-western and southern neighbours, by contrast, have the potential to undermine—perhaps for good—any Russian pretension to decisive influence or an exclusive droit de regard in these regions. At the time of writing, however, this latest shift could again be called in question by a new diversion of focus to the 'greater Middle East' following hostilities in Iraq.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: Russia, Iraq, Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Middle East, Asia, and Soviet Union

417. Open Society Institute Calls for Vigilant Monitoring of Iraq Supplemental Spending

Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: The Iraq Supplemental bill President Bush signed October 17 goes far in addressing key concerns regarding transparency of U.S. governance in Iraq, but close scrutiny is required, says the Open Society Institute. Against a background of criticism over sole source contracts to Halliburton, allegations of price inflation by U.S. contractors, and the obstacles both Congress and outside observers have encountered in obtaining information about contracts for reconstruction, Congress demanded increased reporting on how U.S. funds to Iraq are spent.
Topic:: Governance, Budget, War on Terror, Fiscal Policy, Transparency, and Iraq War
Political Geography:: Iraq

418. OSI Supports the Establishment of New Monitoring Board in Iraq; Calls for Vigilant Oversight

Publication Date:: 12-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: Prospects for the independent oversight of how the Coalition Provisional Authority manages Iraqi oil revenues were improved Friday with the first meeting of the International Advisory and Monitoring Board (IAMB), says Iraq Revenue Watch, a program of the Open Society Institute's Central Eurasia Project. The audit body, created in May under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1483, consists of four members representing the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Arab Development Fund.
Topic:: Governance, World Bank, Transparency, Iraq War, and IMF
Political Geography:: Iraq

419. Should the War on Terrorism Target Iraq?

Author:: Michael E O'Hanlon and Philip H Gordon
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: As Afghan opposition groups and U.S. armed forces continue their successes in the war against the Taliban and al Qaeda, the American debate has quickly turned to the question of where the fight against terrorism should go next. In numerous public statements, President Bush has talked about a wide-ranging campaign against global terrorism. He has not committed to military operations against any other countries or terrorist organizations, but he has made it clear that the broader struggle against terrorism will be a long-lasting effort that could include the use of military force in regions beyond Afghanistan.
Topic:: Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, and Taliban

420. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq's WMD Declaration – How Important? How to Respond?

Author:: David Kay
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 6, 2002, David Kay addressed the Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. David Kay is a senior fellow at the Potomac Institute. He previously served as the UN's chief nuclear weapons inspector in Iraq, where he led teams that uncovered the scope and extent of Iraq's nuclear program. He has also served as corporate vice president of Science Applications International Corporation. UN Security Council Resolution 1441 required Iraq to submit a full and complete declaration of all weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs and associated delivery systems by December 8. Given the stakes, and the fact that Iraq's previous declarations have been incomplete and misleading, the international community remains concerned, and the United States wary, of the Iraqi declaration.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

421. Special Policy Forum Report: Envisioning a Post-Saddam Iraqi Military

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt and Kenneth Pollack
Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Retraining and reorganizing the Iraqi military and eliminating weapons of mass destruction (WMD) will be vital tasks in the wake of any U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Yet, political change is a prerequisite for military change, and neglecting the former could pose disastrous consequences for the latter. Specifically, the United States should assist in the creation of an apolitical, professional Iraqi military in concert with a new pluralist, federal, civilian-led Iraqi government with indigenous roots. Ultimately, these efforts would help to stabilize Iraq both internally and vis-a-vis its neighbors.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

422. Special Policy Forum Report: Toward Renewed Weapons Inspections in Iraq?

Author:: Rolf Ekeus
Publication Date:: 11-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1441, adopted after weeks of diplomatic aerobics, authorized renewed weapons inspections in Iraq and outlined a timetable for the inspections process, with mandatory deadlines for Iraqi compliance. UNSCR 1441's popularity is remarkable: the United States, Russia, France, and Syria all like it, and even Iraq seems somewhat amenable to its terms. This popularity may stem from the possibility that each of these countries has a different understanding of the resolution's implications. If so, the disarmament effort may eventually reach a fork in the road, with two possible paths forward.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Russia, Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

423. Upcoming Turkish Elections: Likely Winners and Implications for Foreign Policy

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On November 3, the Turks will go to the polls to elect their new government. The elections could usher in a major realignment of the Turkish political landscape, perhaps bringing a party with Islamist pedigree – the Justice and Development Party (AKP) – to power. Should Washington worry about the foreign policy orientation of a new Turkish administration and its willingness to support a military campaign against Iraq?
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Religion, and War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

424. Special Policy Forum Report: The Old Middle East's Triumph: Roots of Current Crises

Author:: Barry Rubin
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This question is usually answered in one of two ways. The "just around the corner" view, often favored by Western government officials and the media, argues that the region's conflicts and lack of significant progress could be rectified quickly if only the proper policies and detailed solutions were proposed. In contrast, the "victim" view, often favored in academia and in the Arab world, argues that the area's problems result primarily from external aggression and oppression. The irony is that those styling themselves progressive and pro-Arab in the West actually do great damage to the lives of Arabs in the Middle East, in part by embracing reactionary dictatorships.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

425. Special Report: The Future of Iraq Policy

Author:: Zalmay Khalilzad
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: I want to give you the administration's perspective on where we are and what our vision is for Iraq. As far as the current situation is concerned, we are of the view that Saddam Husayn's regime is determined to retain, expand, and again use weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and that the regime is ready to employ such weapons not only at home, but also abroad. The administration is now determined to disarm Iraq one way or another. No decision for use of force has been made, and we have no desire for war with Iraq. War is not inevitable, but action is. We are working with Congress to secure an effective resolution that allows the president to consider all possible options for dealing with the threat that Saddam Husayn poses. Similarly, we are working with the UN to secure an effective resolution that will end Saddam's defiance of Security Council resolutions and disarm the regime. We believe that Saddam is in material breach of his commitments to the UN. We believe that he threatens regional and global stability by supporting terrorism as well as by holding his country hostage and using its resources to build WMD and the missiles to deliver them. In order to avoid the use of force, Saddam must take the necessary actions – not words, but actions – to comply with all Security Council resolutions. Our position is that this threat will be dealt with one way or another, and in short order.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

426. Enhancing the Turkish-American Alliance: The Campaign for Iraq and Other Possibilities

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones was in Ankara Monday to discuss foreign policy issues including Iraq with her Turkish counterparts. Interestingly, Iraq's vice premier Tariq Aziz visited Ankara yesterday for the same purpose. These trips come at a crucial time as Washington prepares for a confrontation with Saddam Husayn. While prepared to stand with its close NATO ally the United States, Turkey remains uneasy about several issues.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

427. Shaping a New UN Draft Resolution on Iraq

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The United States and Britain are consulting with the other three permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia, France, and China) before introducing a new draft resolution on Iraq. Much attention has been given to whether the resolution will explicitly authorize the use of force. At least as important will be whether the resolution reverses the long, slow erosion of Iraq's UN-mandated obligations. For all their seemingly tough language, recent Security Council resolutions on Iraq have been ambiguous at best about the issues on which Saddam Husayn has been allowed to cheat in the past.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

428. November Elections in Turkey: Assessing the Ban on Justice and Development Party Leader Tayyip Erdogan

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the United States considers a possible military campaign in Iraq, Turkey is preoccupied with its upcoming elections. Although a party with roots in Islamism will be a major contender in the November 3 elections, it is unlikely that Turkey's approach to the Iraq issue will change much, regardless of which party wins. That said, continuing political uncertainty at home could preoccupy Turkish leaders, reducing Turkey's contribution to solving the Iraq problem.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

429. Special Policy Forum Report: U.S.-Turkish Interests: Convergence and Divergence

Author:: Seyfi Tashan and Heath Lowry
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The U.S.-Turkish security relationship is becoming increasingly important to the stability of the Middle East. The two countries have long enjoyed a friendship based on mutual economic and military interests. Many perceive this to be an ideal relationship between the West and the Islamic world. Americans certainly have an interest in encouraging Muslim countries to develop more democratic societies. Yet, the secular structure of Muslim Turkey may not necessarily be the right model for the entire Muslim world. Any externally imposed model is a recipe for failure; individual countries must possess structures of their own that will allow them to develop secular institutions.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

430. Special Policy Forum Report: How to Build a New Iraq after Saddam

Author:: Ellen Laipson and Rend Rahim Francke
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Judging whether or not regime change in Iraq is desirable depends in part on forecasting what is likely to occur afterward. The international community cannot expect to determine the success or failure of regime change in the few months after it is initiated; this is the responsibility of the Iraqis themselves. By intervening, the international community would be entitled to set some terms regarding the basic principles of a post-Saddam government, but the details of such a government – in the social, political, and economic realms – must be meaningful and credible to Iraqis.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

431. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraqi Regime Change and the Kurdistan Regional Government

Author:: Barham Salih
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since it became an autonomous region in 1991, Kurdistan has taken advantage of its relative freedom from the tyranny of Baghdad. As a result, Kurdish culture has blossomed, media outlets have boomed, and the number of schools, physicians, and universities in the region has increased dramatically. In comparison to its pre-1991 status, Kurdistan is doing very well. Nevertheless, it has reached a dead end. The Kurdish people realize that in order to ensure further cultural revival, better education, and additional healthcare, a regime change in Baghdad is necessary. At the same time, the Iraqi people look with pride at what has been achieved in Kurdistan and wait for the day in which they can emulate it. They, too, have reached the conclusion that regime change is necessary and that they must accept differences within their society and government, as expressed through the ballot box. Iraqis feel that the day of liberation is near, and they hope that the international community will soon perceive their readiness for change and their willingness to pay the price for such change.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

432. Special Policy Forum Report: The Middle East: A Turkish Perspective

Author:: Ugur Ziyal
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The November 3, 2002, Turkish parliamentary elections are unlikely to produce any significant change in Turkish foreign policy, upon which there is a national consensus. The statements of all the political parties support Turkey's European orientation, and they also share a similar stance on Iraq. The new government may bring differences in style, but the same guiding principles for policymaking will remain in place.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

433. WMD Inspections in Iraq: A Trap or an Opportunity?

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President George W. Bush's speech to the UN General Assembly on September 12 is expected to lay out U.S. policy on Iraq. There are strong arguments against raising the issue of arms inspections at all during this speech, and even stronger arguments for proposing a specific deadline for resuming inspections.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

434. Terrorist Links of the Iraqi Regime

Author:: Ely Karmon
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 28, 2002, a U.S. federal grand jury issued a new indictment against five terrorists from the Fatah Revolutionary Command, also known as the Abu Nidal Organization (ANO), for the 1986 hijacking of Pan Am Flight 73 in Karachi, Pakistan. Based on "aggravating circumstances," prosecutors are now seeking the death penalty for the attack, in which twenty-two people – including two Americans – were killed.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, Palestine, Arabia, and Karachi

435. Sealing the U.S.-Turkish Strategic Partnership through Cooperation in Iraq? A View from Ankara

Author:: Nihat Ali Ozcan and Ersel Aydinli
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Ever since talk of American intervention in Iraq began heating up, Turkish policy on cooperation has generally been as follows: keep a close eye on the situation and clearly express reluctance, but if Washington begins to display greater decisiveness, take part in the action. The primary reasons for such a policy are Turkey's immediate proximity to Iraq and its unpleasant memories from the Gulf War.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Ankara

436. A Roadmap from Crawford to Baghdad

Author:: Raymond Tanter
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: An uninvited guest – Saddam Husayn – may dominate the August 21 military planning session at President George W. Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas. The publicized agenda for this session does not mention Iraq, but then again, neither did the Bush speech at West Point in June 2002. Nevertheless, the doctrine Bush set out in that speech – the doctrine of preventive war – will receive its first test case with Iraq. Bush's argument in June was that the United States must be prepared to take preemptive action against rogue states that acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD), which could be transferred to terrorists if not used directly by such states.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, South Africa, Baghdad, and Arabia

437. Turkey and Regime Change in Iraq

Author:: Mark Parris
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey's attitude will be critical in the event the United States seeks to remove Saddam Husayn through use of force. Simple geography demands that any military option include Turkey. What do Turks think about the prospect of direct U.S. military action to topple Saddam? The short answer is: they hate the idea. But sitting it out is not an option.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

438. Hizballah and the War on Terror

Author:: Ely Karmon
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Hizballah has not yet been made a clear target of America's war on terrorism. Recently, the organization has been taking advantage of the political space granted to it by this fact in order to frustrate both the war on terrorism and any plans for a campaign against Iraq.
Topic:: Security, Religion, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

439. Turkey's Crisis, Iraq's Future, and the Wolfowtiz Visit

Author:: Helena Kane Finn
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The speech delivered by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz at the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) in Istanbul on July 14 was a detailed, comprehensive statement of U.S. policy on Turkey. In the clearest expression of U.S. policy on Turkish-Iraqi relations to date, Wolfowitz observed that "it is vital to Turkey for the people of Iraq to govern themselves democratically, with full respect for the rights of minorities, including the Turcomans, and to maintain the territorial integrity of Iraq." Yet, how will current Turkish crises affect the prospects for U.S.-Turkish cooperation on Iraq?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

440. Special Policy Forum Report: Military Options Regarding Iraq

Author:: Thomas G. McInerney
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In his June 1 West Point address, President George W. Bush announced a policy of using preemption against countries that support terrorism and can deliver weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The preeminent such case in the world is the government of Iraqi president Saddam Husayn. The United States can no longer tolerate that regime and must take action in order to succeed in its broader war on terrorism. A U.S. campaign against Iraq should have four objectives: 1) remove Saddam Husayn and his supporters from power, 2) install an Iraqi government based on democratic principles, 3) rebuild the Iraqi economy, and 4) eliminate Iraq's WMD.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

441. Turkish Political Disarray: Why Now? What Next?

Author:: Helena Kane Finn
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Simmering political problems in Turkey reached a boil following the resignation of the deputy prime minister this week, throwing into doubt both the health of the Ecevit government and Turkey's critical negotiations with the European Union (EU). The current situation, which is fluid and unpredictable, will also have ramifications for Turkey's role in U.S. efforts regarding Iraq.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

442. U.S. No-Fly Zones in Iraq: To What End?

Author:: Phillip Gibbons
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since 1991, the United States has averaged over 34,000 military sorties per year in support of no-fly zone operations in Iraq. One might ask, to what effect?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

443. Special Policy Forum Report: Post-Saddam Iraq: What Follows a U.S.-Led Intervention?

Author:: Amatzia Baram
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Among the many advantages of an Iraq without Saddam Husayn, the first clear one is the removal of an unacceptable threat to the Iraqi people. Saddam has shown that he is prepared to put the nation and the region as a whole at risk. At the very least, an Iraq without his regime would be much more friendly to America, and — given Iraqi oil reserves — could even lessen American dependence on Saudi oil.
Topic:: Security, Oil, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

444. The Bush Administration and OPEC: The National Energy Policy Revisited

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Tomorrow's conference of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna comes at a time when higher oil prices have been reflected in increased gasoline prices over the last two months. Indeed, further price hikes are possible, particularly as talk of war with Iraq has strengthened the futures market in recent days. Presently, the cartel influences rather than controls the world price of oil and, unlike in 1973, sees its role as maintaining supply. Last May, in the National Energy Review (NER), the Bush administration appeared unwilling to criticize the production policies of OPEC, which is dominated by Middle Eastern states. How has this view been affected by the events of September 11? Furthermore, how might OPEC respond as the Bush administration pursues the war on terrorism and confronts the "axis of evil," which includes two OPEC members — Iran and Iraq?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

445. How Much of an Axis and How Evil?

Author:: Raymond Tanter
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President George W. Bush's reference to an "axis of evil" in his State of the Union address accurately captures the ties among Iran, Iraq, and North Korea. The president also usefully highlighted the overlap between proliferation and terrorism. In the end, there are more benefits than costs in using such confrontational language.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North Korea, and Arabia

446. Iran as Part of the Axis of Evil: Reforms Stagnate (Part I)

Author:: Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In his January 29 State of the Union address, President George Bush criticized Iran as one of three states (the other two being Iraq and North Korea) forming an 'axis of evil' and castigated its "unelected leaders" for denying the will of the majority. Indeed, the perennial conflict between Tehran's political factions seems to have escalated, deepening the stalemate that has essentially paralyzed its governing system. The durability of the Islamic Republic has always stemmed from its flexibility and capacity to absorb change. Since the election of Muhammad Khatami in 1997, however, the popular demand for change is outstripping the system's accommodative capabilities. The youths' demands for employment and cultural freedom, the middle class's quest for representation, and the women's clamor for social emancipation are creating tensions and pressures that threaten the foundations of the Islamic Republic.
Topic:: Security, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, and Arabia

447. Special Policy Forum Report: Nuclear Arms Inspections in Iraq

Author:: Hans Blix
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since September 11, there has been increased concern about terrorists using weapons of mass destruction (WMD). It is thus natural to return to the issue of Iraq, a country that has used chemical agents against Iran and its own citizens. Indeed, Iraq violated the Non-Proliferation Treaty before 1990 and, prior to the Gulf War, was estimated to be a year away from developing workable nuclear weapons.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

448. Global Economic Prospects

Author:: Michael Mussa
Publication Date:: 09-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The global economic recovery is continuing but at a somewhat slower pace than was anticipated six months ago. Specifically, using the country weights from the IMF's World Economic Outlook, the forecast for real GDP growth in the world economy during 2002 (i.e., on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis) is cut by about half a percentage point to 3 percent—a pace that is slightly below my estimate of the potential growth rate for world GDP. This downward revision reflects primarily slower growth than earlier expected during the first half of 2002 in most industrial countries and the expectation that growth will remain somewhat more sluggish than earlier expected at least through year-end. For 2003, the forecast for global economic growth is also cut by about half a percentage point—to 4 percent—reflecting both general factors suggesting slightly weaker performance in many industrial and developing countries and the particular economic risks arising from possible military action against Iraq and from potential credit events affecting key developing countries. Despite these downward revisions, however, there is little doubt that the world economy will see significant improvement this year from the 1 percent growth recorded in 2001, and it is still reasonable to expect further improvement to a growth rate modestly above global potential during 2003.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Europe, Israel, Asia, South America, Latin America, and North America

449. The Defense Monitor: Victory At An Unknown Cost

Author:: Stephen H. Baker
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: Throughout the spring, summer and fall of this year thousands of U.S. military planners have worked on the various contingencies and strategies concerning a possible invasion of Iraq.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States and Iraq

450. The Defense Monitor: Nuclear Time Warp

Author:: Dr. Bruce G. Blair
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: President george W. Bush's new Nuclear Posture Review harks back to the stone age, or at least to the 1950s, when America's most beautiful minds struggled to devise a strategy to deal with the original rogue state — the Soviet Union. The latest exercise to devise a nuclear strategy to neutralize threats of weapons of mass destruction wielded by the 2002-class of rogue states such as Iraq and North Korea is proof that time folds over on itself, and that higher-order nuclear intelligence is as elusive as table-top fusion. This repetition of history isn't funny, but it is dangerous.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Iraq and North Korea

451. The Quartet, the Road Map, and the Future of Iraq: A Realistic Assessment

Author:: Gerald M. Steinberg
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: In the wake of the failed Camp David summit of July 2000 and the terrible violence that began at the end of September, there have been many efforts to halt the carnage and revive the negotiations. These efforts included summit meetings in Paris and Sharm el Sheik, the Mitchell Commission, and security plans presented by CIA director George Tenet and General Anthony Zinni. None of these had any visible impact, and the Palestinian attacks and Israeli responses have only intensified.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Paris, Palestine, and Arabia

452. Winning Without War: Sensible Security Options for Dealing with Iraq

Author:: George A. Lopez, David Cortwright, and Alistair Millar
Publication Date:: 10-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: Advocates of military action against Iraq contend that war is the only certain option for preventing Saddam Hussein from developing or using nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons. They claim that diplomacy, containment, and other options have been tried and found wanting. They add that the possibility that Saddam will pass these weapons on to terrorist groups leaves little choice for measures other than prompt military action. This approach was underscored by President Bush in his address of October 7 delivered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Ohio

453. Inspections in Iraq: A Test For Saddam, Not A Good Solution for WMD

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Like that of its predecessor, the Bush administration's policy toward Iraq appears to focus on the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the hands of Saddam Husayn's regime. Some suggest that U.S. policy should emphasize the resumption of inspections, suspended since 1998. However, there are strong reasons to doubt that inspections would reduce the threat of Iraqi WMD.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

454. How to Unseat Saddam (Part 1 of 2)

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Before September 11, U.S. policymakers would have been hard-pressed to justify significant military action against Iraq without a major provocation. The events of September 11 and the subsequent anthrax incidents, however, have highlighted the dangers of "business as usual" in an age of sophisticated terrorism and weapons proliferation, and the potentially high costs of ignoring the likes of Saddam Hussein; that is true whether or not Iraq was associated with these events. The risks of perpetuating a faltering containment policy, and the imperative of regime change in Iraq have never been clearer.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

455. Focusing on Iraq: The Question is How, Not Whether

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In Washington, the debate over Iraq is shifting from the simple question of whether it should be targeted in phase II of the antiterror war, to how we should deal with a country that continually refuses to fulfill its UN obligations and surrender weapons of mass destruction (WMD). From the latter viewpoint, options for Iraqi policy are not confined to the extremes of either complete inactivity or dispatching 500,000 troops for a ground campaign. There are numerous approaches that the Bush administration can take if it is determined to increase pressure on Saddam Husayn's regime. President Bush spoke on Monday about the importance of resuming UN-mandated arms-control inspections in Iraq, and the Security Council has been considering this week whether to revitalize sanctions on Iraq.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

456. September 11 and the Saudi Arabian Connection

Author:: Joshua Teitelbaum
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's visit to the Middle East and Central Asia last week — in an attempt to shore up the coalition against anti-American terrorism — brought him to Saudi Arabia as well. The Saudi government has neither openly acknowledged how they will allow the United States to use the space-age technology Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC) that opened in June at Prince Sultan Air Base, near al-Kharj, southeast of Riyadh; nor has it said what landing or refueling rights will be granted. Amid conflicting statements by anonymous officials, the Saudi paper al-'Ukaz quoted Minister of Defense Sultan bin 'Abd al-'Aziz: "We do not accept the presence in our country of a single soldier at war with Muslims or Arabs." History is not encouraging here — the Saudi royal family did not allow the United States to use its air bases during 1998's Operation Desert Fox against Iraq.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries

457. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part II)

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran could have a number of direct and indirect effects on the region: First, a nuclear breakout by either will cause the United States to be much more careful in its dealings with that state, particularly when it comes to considering military action. America's military freedom-of-action will be greatly constrained. Second, an Iraqi breakout would almost certainly cause Iran to further accelerate its own nuclear efforts and might spur Tehran to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which it increasingly sees as a liability. Third, the emergence of a nuclear Iraq and/or Iran could cause the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to seek an independent deterrent capability — including chemical weapons. (The large petrochemical industries of the Gulf could provide many of the precursor chemicals needed for such an effort.) Saudi Arabia might even seek to buy nuclear weapons from Pakistan.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, Iraq, America, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

458. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part I)

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As U.S. policymakers review options for national missile defense and ways to reshape the military to meet future threats, nuclear proliferation — particularly in the Middle East — looms large as one of the most critical future challenges facing the United States. In the coming years, it is conceivable, if not likely, that the United States will have to respond to a nuclear breakout by Iraq and/or Iran. Such a development could have a dramatic impact on the strategic environment of the Middle East by altering the regional balance of power and encouraging further proliferation in the region and beyond. A nuclear breakout by either of these countries would also undermine international proliferation norms, put U.S. forces in the region at risk, pose a direct threat to U.S. friends and allies, and greatly constrain America's military freedom of action in the region. The likelihood of such a development — or at least its potential impact — will, however, be influenced by steps the United States takes now to deal with such an eventuality. And Washington is more likely to successfully manage the consequences of a nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran if its response is not improvised, but based on prior planning.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

459. Iraq Policy: Thinking Beyond Smart Sanctions

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: August 2, 2001 marks eleven years since Saddam Husayn invaded Kuwait. Given Washington's unsuccessful effort to win UN Security Council approval for a reformed sanctions regime, the Bush administration must now reconsider the options for Iraq policy.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Kuwait, and Arab Countries

460. Special Policy Forum Report -- Northern Iraq, Sanctions, and U.S. Iraq Policy

Author:: Michael Rubin
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 27, 2001, Michael Rubin, a Washington Institute visiting scholar and Carnegie Council fellow, addressed the Washington Institute's Policy Forum. Dr. Rubin has just returned from nine months in northern Iraq, where he taught in the region's three universities. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Iraq remains at the forefront of U.S. and international attention. Many contentious issues — such as sanctions, weapons of mass destruction, and the future political disposition of the country — remain unresolved. In analyzing the source of Iraq's problems, it is useful to compare those portions of Iraq under the control of Saddam Hussein to the three northern governorates (Dahuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniyyah), which are controlled by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and the Islamic Unity Movement of Kurdistan — especially as all parts of Iraq fall under the same set of UN sanctions. The population in the north is approximately 3.5 million, many of whom are Kurdish, Turkoman, or Assyrian, and almost 1 million of whom are displaced persons expelled from Saddam's portion of Iraq. By refusing to grant visas to many journalists, Saddam's government consistently seeks to deny press coverage to northern Iraq. Those who do visit Baghdad-controlled Iraq are restricted to guided tours with Iraqi government minders and are prevented from traveling into the Kurdish-controlled north. Foreigners visiting the north, however, are able to move around freely without prearrangement.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

461. Special Policy Forum Report -- Iran's Hardline Vigilantes and the Prospects for Reform

Author:: Michael Rubin
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 5, 2001, Michael Rubin, a Washington Institute visiting scholar who was in 2000/2001 a visiting professor at the three universities in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, addressed the Institute's Policy Forum luncheon. This event marked the publication of Dr. Rubin's new study, Into the Shadows: Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran (Policy Paper no. 56, The Washington Institute). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

462. 'Re-Energizing' UN Sanctions on Iraq: Problems and Prospects

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, the United States and United Kingdom are circulating a draft resolution in the UN Security Council proposing a package of new measures intended to "re-energize" sanctions against Iraq. They hope to bring the resolution to a vote before the next six-month phase of the "oil for food" program begins on June 4. This revamped sanctions regime will lift restrictions on civilian trade, while retaining both international control over Iraq's oil income through the UN escrow account, and a ban on the import of arms and dual-use items critical to the production of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Arab Countries

463. The United States, Iraq, and Iran: Proliferating Risks, Dwindling Opportunities

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: American policymakers face a number of decision points concerning U.S. policy toward Iraq and Iran in the coming weeks. The UN Security Council has to act by June 4 to renew the oil-for-food program, providing the United States with an opportunity to secure approval for the "re-energized" sanctions regime that Secretary of State Colin Powell floated in March. Iran's policy direction will become clearer after its June 8 presidential elections, and that could influence the U.S. decision whether to renew the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act that expires August 5. Meanwhile, U.S. officials are reportedly considering whether to indict senior Iranians for the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Iran, and Arab Countries

464. At The Bottom Of The Bush-Mubarak Agenda? The Slow Pace Of Political Reform In Egypt

Author:: Amy W. Hawthorne
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Urgent regional matters — such as Iraq and the Arab–Israeli peace process — will dominate the agenda during Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's visit to Washington this week, while Egypt's transition to a free-market economy and U.S.– Egypt trade ties will also receive attention. Egyptian domestic politics, however, will register little, aside from U.S. frustrations over anti-Semitism in the Egyptian press and concern about the status of Egypt's Coptic Christians. Although the regime appears quite stable, having secured a "victory" in its 1990s conflict with violent extremist groups, the state of political reform in Egypt, America's most important Arab ally, merits a closer look. That is because Egypt's long-term economic reform — in which Washington has invested so much — can succeed only if accompanied by meaningful political liberalization.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

465. Turkey And The Bush Administration: The Question Marks

Author:: Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey's economic crisis is naturally the leading issue in bilateral U.S.-Turkish relations, and it is almost certainly topping the agenda of today's meetings of Foreign Minister Ismail Cem with Vice President Richard Cheney and other senior officials. Of course, these meetings pose the difficult question of how much Washington should do, if anything, to bail out its strategically vital ally. But this is only one of several uncertainties characterizing U.S.-Turkish relations in the early days of the Bush administration. Because so much of Turkey's importance to the United States derives from its critical strategic location, bilateral relations are greatly affected by U.S. policies toward other states in Turkey's region. Of most concern to Turkey will be the evolution of Bush administration policy toward Iraq, Iran, and Russia, and also toward Europe's nascent bid to develop an autonomous security capacity.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East

466. Border Disputes On The Arabian Peninsula

Author:: Ramin Seddiq
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is set to rule tomorrow on the longstanding border dispute between two Persian Gulf sheikdoms, Qatar and Bahrain. This dispute has preoccupied the ruling families in both countries for decades. It and the much better known Iraq–Kuwait border dispute (not detailed here) are hardly the only ones on the Arabian Peninsula. Indeed, almost every country on the peninsula has — or until very recently, has experienced — a disagreement over border demarcation.
Topic:: International Relations and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Arabian Peninsula

467. Arab Gulf Politics And Powell's Visit

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Secretary of State Colin Powell and former President George Bush celebrate the tenth anniversary of the liberation of Kuwait, for many Gulf Arabs the occasion marks a decade since Saddam Husayn's tanks put the lie to the promises of security that local leaders had made to their people. After popular trust in these Gulf leaders was tarnished by their need to rely on U.S. and allied forces to expel the Iraqis (despite the billions of dollars of oil wealth these rulers had spent on high-tech weaponry over the years), Gulf monarchs started to concede to their peoples a greater say in political life.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Kuwait

468. Powell To The Middle East: Assessing The Key Elements Of Iraq Policy

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 26, U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell begins his tour of Iraq's Arab neighbors just as UN secretary-general Kofi Annan is scheduled to hold discussions with Iraqi foreign minister Mohammad Said al-Sahhaf in New York. Key themes in these meetings will be the return of UN weapons inspectors to Iraq; the future of UN sanctions; the need to prevent Iraqi adventurism, especially into the Arab–Israeli arena; and the larger U.S. goal of "regime change" in Iraq.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, New York, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

469. Iraq's Weapons Of Mass Destruction: An Emerging Challenge For The Bush Administration

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iraq and its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are emerging as one of the first major foreign policy challenges of the Bush administration. Free of weapons monitors and with sanctions eroding, Iraq has resumed its aggressive policies. After the start of the al-Aqsa Intifada last September, it briefly moved elements of four to five divisions toward its border with Syria in a show of solidarity, and on several occasions since then, Saddam Husayn has threatened to destroy Israel. Then, earlier this month, his older son Uday reasserted Iraq's claim to Kuwait. With its conventional military capabilities hobbled by two bloody wars and more than a decade of sanctions, Iraq's retained WMD capabilities assume renewed salience.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, and Syria

470. The Gulf Cooperation Council Defense Pact: An Exercise In Ambiguity

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: January 17 marks the tenth anniversary of the start of Operation Desert Storm in the Middle East, when U.S.-led forces began the liberation of Kuwait. In that operation, the militaries of the Gulf monarchies played a minor role. At their meeting in Bahrain at the end of December, the leaders of these monarchies agreed to a joint defense agreement by which an attack on one would be considered an attack on all. While this agreement could enhance the defense capabilities of these states, they will still be unable to fend off attack by either of their large neighbors, Iraq or Iran. The monarchies will continue to rely on the United States as their ultimate security guarantor.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Kuwait

471. Can Iraq Reconstitute The Arab Eastern Front Against Israel?

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While President Bill Clinton is laying out his plans for peace in the Middle East, others are talking about their readiness for war. Iraqi dictator Saddam Husayn's defiant January 6 Army Day speech supporting the Palestinian revolt followed on the December 31 four-hour "Al Aqsa Call" military parade in Baghdad dedicated to the Palestinian cause. By some reports, this parade included hundreds of tanks, dozens of helicopters, new troop-transport trucks, and new short-range missiles — impressive, given that the Iraqi army was assumed to be having problems maintaining its equipment, much less acquiring new systems. One unconfirmed report suggests that elements of the Hamurabi Republican Guard Division would be permanently stationed west of Baghdad on the road to either Syria and Jordan.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Jordan

472. Assessing Powell's Trip To Israel And The Palestinian Territories

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While the main purpose of Secretary of State Colin Powell's first foray into the Middle East was to discuss Iraq, he also visited Israel and the Palestinian Authority and injected a dose of what some would call "evenhandedness" — giving each both something to be pleased about and something to be unnerved about.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

473. Special Policy Forum Report; Imagining A Likud Foreign Policy

Author:: Dore Gold
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: February marks ten years since the end of the Gulf War. The situation in the Middle East today is vastly more dangerous than in 1991. The favorable regional conditions in 1991 that allowed the current peace process to begin have been reversed. Three key trends are the following: After Iraq's defeat in the Gulf War, it was placed under UN monitoring and extensive sanctions, thereby removing a major threat from Israel's calculus. Today, the situation is drastically different, with the absence of UN inspections for more than two years and the deterioration of sanctions against Iraq. In 1991, Iran was still recovering from its exhaustive war with Iraq and could not fully participate in regional, specifically Arab–Israeli, affairs. By contrast, Iran is currently testing intermediate-range missiles and is expressing its strategic weight in places like Lebanon, where it has increased its support to Hizballah. In 1991, the USSR was crumbling before its eventual collapse and was no longer in a position to offer strategic and military support to the enemies of Israel, while its successor — the Russian Federation — has more or less acquiesced to U.S. positions on the Middle East. Since 1996, however, Russia has taken a contrary approach to many U.S. policies and leadership in the region, in particular with regard to Iraqi sanctions and weapons inspections and the transfer of missile technology to Iran.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Lebanon

474. Our Future Southeastern Turkish Frontiers

Author:: Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Today's southeast Turkey has historically been the homeland of a large number of diverse ethnic groups. Nowadays, in many town and villages of the region the largest ethnic group is Kurdish. Turkish officials under Turgut Özal in the 1990s for the first time admitted there may be around 10 million Kurds living in Turkey. Other estimates indicate a Kurdish population of around 15 million. Adding to this figure the additional 10 million or so Kurds living in Iran, Iraq, Syria and the former Soviet Union, the Kurdish people represent the largest ethnic group in the world without a state of their own.
Topic:: Security and NATO
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

475. Iraq: 10 Years After Gulf War

Author:: Stephen Zunes
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: Ten years after the Gulf War, U.S. policy toward Iraq continues to suffer from an overreliance on military solutions, an abuse of the United Nations and international law, and a disregard for the human suffering resulting from sanctions. Furthermore, Washington's actions have failed to dislodge Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein from power.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

476. Toward Smart Sanctions on Iraq

Author:: George A. Lopez
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: The United States should seek to limit Iraqi designs to develop weapons of mass destruction by supporting a UN-sponsored 'smart' sanctions mechanism. Smart sanctions would involve a tightened system of border monitoring and verification with an eye toward control of dual-use technologies. Financial controls through the UN escrow account should be retained to limit Iraq's purchasing abilities in the global marketplace. Private accounts of Iraqi elites should also be frozen to limit purchases of dual-use goods or expertise. The elimination of the blunt general trade sanctions, which are already leaking, would lift a considerable burden off the Iraqi people.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States and Iraq

477. Special Policy Forum Report: Israeli Security Strategy: Facing Multiple Fronts

Author:: Ephraim Sneh
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recently, four factors have combined to make the situation in the Middle East far more combustible than it is has been for a long time. These elements are: Iraq has managed to break out of the boundaries imposed by the UN sanctions regime and to evade weapons inspections. Saddam Husayn is now stronger than ever and ready to play a role in the region. He has signaled this intention by his deployment of troops on the western borders of Iraq just before the Arab summit in Egypt. Although he has since pulled them back, this maneuver was intended to send the message that Saddam Husayn is a force to be reckoned with from now on. Iran has enhanced its efforts to use a consortium of terrorist groups against the remnants of the peace process. Intelligence information shows that Iran has deployed long-range Katyusha missiles in Lebanon and that it is encouraging Hizballah activities against Israel. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has disappointed most analysts, who hoped that he would focus on addressing Syria's economy and other domestic concerns. Instead, his speeches both at the Arab summit in Egypt and at the Organization of the Islamic Conference in Qatar have been extremely bellicose. In addition, it is clear that the recent kidnappings by Hizballah and a Palestinian group's attempt to infiltrate Israel through Lebanon could not have taken place without at the least a green light from Damascus, even if Bashar himself did not authorize them specifically. Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat has evidently changed course from negotiation to confrontation. So far, the Palestinian cause has proven to be uniting force in the Arab world; under certain circumstances, it might also serve as a good pretext for resumption of full-scale hostilities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Syria, and Egypt

478. Special Policy Forum Report: The Turkish-Israeli-Syrian Triangle

Author:: Alan Makovsky, Cengiz Candar, and Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The emergence of close Israeli-Turkish relations is one of the significant strategic developments in the post-Cold War Middle East. These ties are likely to flourish as long as Israel and Turkey remain pro-Western, anti-Islamic fundamentalist, and compatible in military inventory. Turkish-Israeli ties should be described as a "strategic relationship," not as an alliance. Turkey and Israel are not obligated or likely to go to war if the other is attacked. They also have somewhat differing threat perceptions regarding Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Syria

479. The Emerging Threat of Iraq and the Crisis of Global Security

Author:: Richard Butler
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: Ten years ago the UN Security Council imposed upon Iraq some very specific requirements for disarmament. After Iraq had been expelled from Kuwait, the Council decided unanimously that Iraq may not have nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons; or missiles which could fly beyond 150 km. The Security Council's decisions were taken with the full authority of international law.
Topic:: Security, International Law, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, and Arabia

480. American Policy Toward Iraq and Iran in Clinton's Second Term

Author:: Robert O. Freedman
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:: During U.S. President Bill Clinton's second term in office, the U.S. "dual containment" policy toward Iran and Iraq, which he inherited from the Bush administration and then intensified during his first term, had come close to collapse.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

481. United States—Iraq Policy

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: In the past nine months, the United States and the United Kingdom have pursued a low-intensity military campaign against Iraq. Such actions have been made easier by a lack of political scrutiny. However, the US administration in particular now faces mounting criticism from France, China and Russia, who favour a relaxation of policy, and domestic US interest groups favouring a more activist stance. Despite these pressures, US President Bill Clinton is unlikely to change policy significantly in his remaining 18 months of office.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and France

482. Iraq Under Sanctions

Author:: Volker Perthes
Publication Date:: 02-1998
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chatham House
Abstract:: In the early months of 1998, the outlook for relations between Iraq and the West looked distinctly bleak. The crisis over UN inspections of Iraq's potential to create weapons of mass destruction began in November 1997 with the Iraqi government's attempt to control the make-up of the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) inspection teams on the grounds that the Anglo-American components of them were, in effect, spies came to a head in February 1998 when the United States and Britain insisted on full, unrestricted compliance with all UN sanctions under the threat of military action. Even though Iraq reluctantly acquiesced in Western demands, little thought appeared to be given in American and British planning to what the consequence of such action would be on Iraqis themselves and on Iraqi public opinion.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Law, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS