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2. Baghdad and Erbil: A difficult road to settling differences
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The relationship between Baghdad and Erbil lately has reached a dead end. The rift between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), the official executive body of the autonomous Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq, and the Federal Government of Iraq (FGI) has, for the past few months, entered a bottleneck driven by political turmoil and rotating governments. But efforts are being made on both sides to bridge differences. On January 11, a Kurdish delegation headed by Masrour Barzani visited the central government in Baghdad to discuss a number of disputed files. The group included several senior officials: ministers for electricity and finance; chief of the cabinet office; director of the office of the region's prime minister; ministers for planning and oil; economic advisors; general counsel; director of border control; and CEO of State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO Oil).
- Topic:
- Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Budget, Gas, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)
3. Al-Sudani’s first 100 days – Or how to keep everyone happy
- Author:
- Erwin van Veen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The job of an Iraqi Prime Minister is a complex balancing act on both the domestic and international fronts. To begin with, there is the challenge of managing competition between the country’s factitious elites. Then there is the unresolved tension between self-interested elites and a citizenry that has largely lost faith in its political leaders. Finally, there is the foreign policy dilemma of balancing political and economic dependence on both the US and Iran. By these standards, Prime Minister Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani’s first 100 days in office have provided a crash course on how to please all sides. He has allocated government positions to his supporters with gusto, provisionally left most Sadrist bastions of power in the state untouched (even though Sadrists are excluded from the government) and offered extensive ‘bread and games’ for the population by promising jobs and social security. Al-Sudani has furthermore sought to reassure opposing foreign actors through a hitherto fairly balanced foreign policy. His approach has been enabled by the broad coalition of Iraqi political elites that brought him to the premiership, along with record oil revenues that help grease the wheels of patronage politics. While structural reforms in politics, administration and economics are overdue, they will not happen because Iraq’s political leaders have no need for them in the immediate term. However, unresolved elite contention, a lack of public investment and the absence of reform mean that Iraq is likely heading for tougher times within the space of a couple of years.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Elites, and Public Investment
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
4. From shock and awe to stability and flaws: Iraq’s post-invasion journey
- Author:
- Hamzeh Hadad
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- In the 20 years since the US-led invasion, Iraq’s political order and elite have proven surprisingly resilient in the face of numerous challenges, including terrorism, civil war, threats of secession, and mass protests. The informal consociational system, party politics, patronage networks, and competing paramilitaries are enduring features of Iraqi governance that have maintained stability even as they present many long-term problems. Despite the system’s resilience, Iraq remains deeply challenged by corruption, a lack of economic diversity and development, climate vulnerability, and some persistent security deficits. Europeans should acknowledge the realities of Iraqi governance and work within them to achieve shared European-Iraqi interests rather than seeking to impose their own ideals or solutions. Europeans could, for example, help Iraqis to manage their youth bulge problem, digitise the economy, and prepare for and adapt to climate change.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political stability, Iraq War, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, and Middle East
5. Family Rule in Iraq and the Challenge to State and Democracy
- Author:
- Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- After the fall of Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship in 2003, Iraqi political parties proliferated in a show of enthusiasm for the country’s emerging democracy. In recent years, however, a handful of personalities and families have consumed all of the country’s political oxygen, dashing hopes for a truly pluralistic ecosystem. Especially discouraging has been the authoritarian shift in Kurdistan, once viewed as a democratic beacon in the Middle East. At the federal level, feuding between the Sadr and Maliki camps now dominates Shia politics, and Mohammed al-Halbousi has crowded out other Sunni players. Meanwhile, corruption touches every surface, and the rare official who holds to ethical standards risks being rendered entirely ineffectual. In this wide-ranging Policy Note, experts Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab outline the dispiriting state of Iraqi politics and how the United States can respond. To achieve the scaled-down goals of maintaining sovereignty and accountability, they argue, American officials must be creative, working with Iraqi institutional actors while simultaneously engaging with less central figures such as apolitical military commanders and the business community.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Democracy, State, and Shia Islam
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
6. Is Iran Looking to Inspire Shia Homegrown Violent Extremist Attacks?
- Author:
- Moustafa Ayad and Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- An October 2018 report by the National Counterterrorism Center defined Shia homegrown violent extremists as “individuals who are inspired or influenced by state actors such as Iran, foreign terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, or Shia militant groups but who do not belong to these groups and are not directed by them.” At the time, the prospect of such Shia violence was largely theoretical, and officials could identify no tangible threats on American soil. But the January 2020 targeted killing of Iranian Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani changed the picture, and U.S. officials could now point to a “catalyzing event,” as envisioned in the NCTC brief. Last year’s attack against writer Salman Rushdie and another at a Las Vegas hotel exemplified how Iran-inspired individuals were motivated to act. In this Policy Note, experts Moustafa Ayad and Matthew Levitt explore lone-offender Shia violence largely through the lens of social media. Closer tracking of online networks, they argue, could illuminate this flourishing virtual activity and how it might lead to real-world harm.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Shia
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
7. Iraq’s state of democracy: A self-perpetuating cycle against reform in favour of the political elite
- Author:
- Mariette Hagglund
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- In addition to Afghanistan, Iraq has been one of the US’s major state-building projects in the 21st century. The recent events in Afghanistan have again highlighted criticism against large-scale interventions. The changes in Iraq’s electoral law have brought about some positive changes, but did not address the root causes of the problems in the political system. Institutions in Iraq are weak and marred by politicization and pressure from powerful parties. Hence, their independence is highly questionable. While improving democracy in Iraq would require radical change, taking minor steps forward remains a more attractive and doable option for the Iraqi and international leadership. However, by working with established political players, the very barriers to more significant reform are simultaneously being strengthened.
- Topic:
- Reform, Democracy, Elites, and Social Order
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
8. Unfarmed Now, Uninhabited When? Agriculture and climate change in Iraq
- Author:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Small-scale farmers in Iraq are among the most affected groups in Iraq by climate change and water scarcity. With the reduction of rainfall and soaring temperature, agricultural production is dropping, and farmers’ ability to cope is hindered. Affected farmers are exhausted and feel that they are left alone in the face of crisis. Many farmers are leaving their lands and looking for better opportunities away from their land and the urban areas. Duty bearers need to mobilize resources and political well to support farmers and the agricultural sector through a national strategy with clear vision on the current needs and comprehensive forecast of the impacts of climate change. While agriculture is at the heart of Iraq’s past and present, its position in the country’s future is at risk.
- Topic:
- Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Food, and Farming
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
9. Iraq’s Constitutional Moment?
- Author:
- Safwan Al-Amin and Bilal Wahab
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Although the country currently lacks the unity and rule of law needed to safely pursue a process as fraught as amending the constitution, there are several alternatives that could get it on the path to systemic reform. Spurred by dysfunctional governance and political gridlock, Iraqis have increasingly been calling to amend the country’s constitution, with many arguing that the post-Saddam sectarian system failed to engender stability or prosperity and has therefore run its course. Even among more-hopeful observers, the democratic norms and minority rights put forth in the constitution remain aspirational at best. Accordingly, some political leaders are publicly signaling that they will heed such calls. Yet attempting to amend the constitution in the current political circumstances is not viable. Apart from the existing charter’s problematic technical deficiencies, Iraq remains mired in a profound lack of constitutionalism and respect for rule of law.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Democracy, and Constitution
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
10. Scoring Iraq’s New Government: Metrics for Preserving U.S. Interests
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The protracted post-election process has been a step backward for Iraqi democracy, so Washington will need to closely monitor the new leadership’s actions and hold Baghdad to measurable benchmarks. Iraq’s stalled government formation process finally lurched forward on October 17, with new president Abdul Latif Rashid taking office more than a year after the 2021 election. Incoming prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will now try to ratify his cabinet during a parliamentary session on October 22. If he succeeds as expected, Baghdad will finally close perhaps its most troubled electoral cycle yet—a chapter in which a clear popular vote nearly failed to produce a peaceful transition of power, and the losing factions spurred the biggest winner to abandon parliament through corrupt judicial rulings. Under these sad circumstances, the U.S. government and its partners need to quietly but insistently push for early, inclusive elections to restore legitimacy to the democratic process. Simultaneously, all of Iraq’s friends must watch the new government like a hawk to ensure that militias and corrupt politicians do not attempt to purge technocrats, conduct witch hunts against Western-leaning officials, cover up past graft, or initiate a new wave of “asset-stripping” via state institutions. After many false alarms, the survival of Iraq’s close relationship with the West is truly at stake right now, and only firm expectation-setting can ensure that the partnership continues.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Terrorism, Reform, Democracy, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
11. KDP and PUK in Sadir’s Chess Game
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Muqtada Al-Sadir, the Shiite Cleric Grandmaster, is playing to win; whatever the expense. In the build-up to the game, the Sunnis got their act together and seized the opportunity to become the main winners of the first round. However, the Kurds entered the fight on one leg, lost sight of the bigger picture and intensified their internal power rivalry. This has already proven costly for the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), and if they keep on as they started, the second round will be even dearer. Fortunately, it is not too late to minimise their losses or even end up winning future rounds. To do this, they need to take into account the complex power dynamics within not just the Shiite component of Iraq (Shiite House), but also the Shiite ‘Universe’ inside and outside Iraq.
- Topic:
- Religion, Conflict, Sunni, Identity, and Shiism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
12. The US strategies in Iraq: A policy debate with Amb. Matthew Tueller
- Author:
- Middle East Research Institute
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- “We are making good progress on constructing a permanent Consulate General in Erbil, the largest US Consulate facility anywhere in the world. And I see that as the nature of the long-term strategic commitment that the United States has to Iraq and to the Kurdistan Region”, said Matthew H. Tueller, the United States Ambassador to Iraq, in a MERI policy debate on 15 May 2022. In this special roundtable, Amb. Tueller outlined the US policies in Iraq and stressed that the strong and long-term strategic partnership between the two countries goes far beyond the military aspect of relationship. It intends to move towards a “shared goal of Iraq as an emerging strong, stable and sovereign state”, which can protect its borders and ensure that no armed forces outside of the government control can influence inside. These are “ongoing challenges” that Iraq faces and the US is trying to help in overcoming them.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
13. he EU-Iraq security partnership: A Policy Debate with MEPs
- Author:
- Middle East Research Institute
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- A Policy Debate with European Parliament Subcommittee on Security and Defence “The Middle East, Iraq and Kurdistan are key partners of Europe… What takes place here has consequences in Europe and vice versa”, said Nathalie Loiseau, Chair of the European Parliament Subcommittee on Security and Defence (SEDE) in a MERI policy debate held on 25 May 2022. Ms Loiseau headed a delegation of seven members of European Parliament (MEPs), along with a group of senior parliamentary advisors and staff (listed below), who visited both Baghdad and Erbil. Their aim was to engage Iraqi policy- and decision-makers and to develop a deeper understanding of the security challenges facing both Iraq and the Kurdistan Region (KRI).
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, and Middle East
14. Big brother is watching: Evolving relations between Iran and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq
- Author:
- Kamal Chomani
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The relationship between Iran and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) will remain securitised in the short term due to the unresolved business of a return to the nuclear deal and its possible aftermath, the gradual reduction of the US military footprint in Iraq and the strengthening hold on power of Iran’s conservatives. Iran’s response to the Iraqi Kurdish referendum for independence in 2017 and its suppression of the revival of armed activity by Iranian Kurdish parties operating from Iraq makes it clear that Tehran does not hesitate to intervene to defend its security interests either. Iran is also likely to seek to counter growing Turkish intrusiveness in northern Iraq. Because the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) is currently weak and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) stuck between Turkey, dissatisfaction with its own rule and pro-Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) sentiments among segments of Kurdish public opinion, the KRI is more vulnerable to Iranian and Turkish pressure than it used to be. In other words, dependency and dominance will continue to characterise the Iran-KRI relation to Tehran’s benefit for the foreseeable future. Ironically, deeper integration of the KRI into a federal Iraq could reduce this risk in the medium-term.
- Topic:
- Security, Bilateral Relations, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)
15. Turkish interventions in its near abroad: The case of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq
- Author:
- Erwin van Veen and Engin Yüksel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The primary objective of Turkey’s recent interventions in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) is to cut the Gordian knot of its own Kurdish question by engaging the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates militarily until they no longer control any territory. To this end, it is essential that Ankara maintains Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) – and especially the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) – as a junior and compliant partner. A secondary Turkish objective is to balance Iran’s influence in Iraq’s disputed territories, mainly by acting as protector of Turkmen and Sunni groups. In the background, the Turkish Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) desire to maintain regime stability at home plays an important role since its alliance with the ultranationalist-conservative Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and some of its domestic legitimacy depends on the success of Turkish interventions into the KRI. Such interventions have historical precedent, but their scope and scale have increased significantly since 2018, with the effect that Ankara has been able to force the PKK into a defensive position. This has been achieved at the cost of the KDP’s popular legitimacy, an increase in PKK popularity and significant collateral damage among ordinary Iraqi (Kurdish) citizens. Further intensification of Turkish interventions into Sinjar, the Nineveh Plains or Sulaymaniyah will lead to greater tensions with both Baghdad and Iran. An extension of UNAMI’s security sector reform work to include border control can help prevent further conflict escalation by inserting a more neutral actor into this volatile situation.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)
16. A stubborn threat: Islamic State in Iraq in early 2022
- Author:
- Nancy Ezzeddine and Matteo Colombo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- In the four years since its territorial defeat, Islamic State (IS) has proved to be resilient as it continues to mount attacks across Iraq. Analysis of IS activity from September 2021 to February 2022 (six months) shows that the geography, type and targets of IS attacks remained broadly similar to the year preceding this period. The volume of IS attacks increased but this mostly took the form of small-scale and local incidents. By and large, the group seems to be stable and shows neither decline nor growth. It operates nimbly and is mostly active in the arc between Sinjar and Baghdad. Counter-terrorism (CT) operations decreased in volume over the same period but are nevertheless keeping IS in check. However, as CT operations are mostly tactical affairs that remain inadequately coordinated and low on intelligence in some aspects, they have not been able to eliminate IS capacity to mount major operations, or to remove it from entire areas. Broadly speaking, IS attacks and CT operations are in a state of equilibrium. As Iraqi CT efforts emphasise security interventions over socio-political remedies, conditions for IS survival, as well as future revival, remain relatively favourable.
- Topic:
- Security, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
17. Early warning: How Iraq can adapt to climate change
- Author:
- Nussaibah Younis
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Iraq is at high risk of suffering the worst effects of the climate crisis, including soaring temperatures and acute water scarcity. As land suitable for farming shrinks and rural jobs disappear, ordinary Iraqis are moving to cities in search of work. This increases pressure on services, pushes up food prices, and exacerbates social tensions, leading to protests and even violence. Iraq’s weak internal governance prevents it from improving water management, managing inter-provincial and inter-tribal conflict, and attracting investment and expertise to create new green-economy jobs and adapt to the changing climate. Public awareness of climate risks is growing, but too few political leaders prioritise the issue. Iraq has long struggled to reach agreement on water issues with upstream states Turkey and Iran, which are building dams that affect supply to Iraq; they also believe that Iraq manages water badly. Similar issues complicate relations between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region. Iraqis and Europeans should work together to improve Iraq’s poor governance and consider measures such as establishing an ‘early warning’ system about potential conflict arising from climate effects.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Politics, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, and Middle East
18. KDP and PUK in Sadir’s Chess Game
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Muqtada Al-Sadir, the Shiite Cleric Grandmaster, is playing to win; whatever the expense. In the build-up to the game, the Sunnis got their act together and seized the opportunity to become the main winners of the first round. However, the Kurds entered the fight on one leg, lost sight of the bigger picture and intensified their internal power rivalry. This has already proven costly for the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), and if they keep on as they started, the second round will be even dearer. Fortunately, it is not too late to minimise their losses or even end up winning future rounds. To do this, they need to take into account the complex power dynamics within not just the Shiite component of Iraq (Shiite House), but also the Shiite ‘Universe’ inside and outside Iraq.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
19. Persistent Obstacles: Iraqi state’s prospects for forming a new government
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Head of the Sadrist Movement and powerful Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has announced that a truce reached to observe the Shia religious observance of Arbaeen was extended for another two weeks to mid-October to give political forces a chance to respond to his demands. The announcement coincided with the Iraqi parliament’s rejection of the resignation of Speaker of the parliament, Mohammed al-Halbousi on September 28. It also came while the Shi'ite Coordination Framework, the largest bloc in the parliament, claimed that, along with the Kurdisd and Sunni parties, it succeeded in establishing a new political coalition, reportedly named “Running-the-State Coalition.”
- Topic:
- Government, Domestic Politics, Muqtada al-Sadr, Coalition, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
20. Possible Prospects: The chances of success of Iraq’s national dialogue
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Iraqi political forces and government representatives, at a meeting on September 5, agreed on six recommendations, which include the creation of a technical team to shape views and perceptions and reconcile different views to pave the way for early elections. The meeting was held as part of the second round of the national dialogue, held despite the Sadrist Movement’s rejection of the dialogue. The first round, held on August 17, was attended by leaders of the Shiite Coordination Framework, leaders from other political forces as well as the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Civil Unrest, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
21. Unknown Knowns How the Bush Administration Traded Failure for Success in Iraq
- Author:
- David Cortright, George A. Lopez, and Alistair Millar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Fourth Freedom Forum
- Abstract:
- This is the story of a road not taken, how the United States discarded a proven system of United Nations weapons inspections and multilateral sanctions and opted for an unnecessary war in Iraq. The saga of what happened twenty years ago may seem like ancient history to some, but many negative consequences are still evident. From the imposition of sanctions on Iraq in 1990 until the calamitous invasion in 2003, our research team produced a steady stream of reports and publications documenting the most significant policy failure by the United States since the Vietnam War.1 With the twentieth anniversary of the invasion approaching, it is time for a fresh look at those events to assess the strategic and ethical implications of the decisions made then and their relevance for today. George W. Bush was gripped by a messianic zeal to overthrow Saddam Hussein by force.2 The president and his advisers were determined to implement a policy of armed regime change regardless of all evidence, logic, or reason.3 The White House concocted a false narrative of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of a dictator with supposed links to al-Qaida.4 Bush ignored the unequivocal conclusion of the U.S. intelligence community that Iraq had nothing to do with either 9/11 or al-Qaida.5 The result of the administration’s campaign of deception was a costly war of choice that ended in “strategic defeat,” to cite the conclusion of the U.S. Army history of the war.6 Many studies have examined what went wrong in Iraq,7 but few have looked at the alternative security approaches that were available at the time. We examine those alternatives here to document that the war was unnecessary and to highlight the policy advantages of multilateral nonmilitary security strategies.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Multilateralism, Iraq War, and George W. Bush
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
22. Fixing the Economy and Public Service Provision in Iraq
- Author:
- Shivan Fazil
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Iraq’s ethnosectarian power-sharing system, with its weak institutions and low levels of accountability, has penetrated the economy and hindered the performance of the state and provision of basic services. Lack of access to economic opportunities and quality public services has been a recurring grievance during the protests in Iraq. The state’s failure to fulfil the protestors’ demands is a widely seen as a symptom of its weakness, which has resulted in calls from protestors for the complete overhaul of the political system. This, however, is unlikely in the short term. Based on interviews with current and former government-level officials and experts in Iraq, this policy brief presents recommendations that focus on reforms within the system to address some of the governance problems besetting Iraqis while the prospect of changing the political system remains remote.
- Topic:
- Governance, Economy, Accountability, Institutions, and Public Service
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
23. Reform within the System: Governance in Iraq and Lebanon
- Author:
- Amal Bourhrous, Shivan Fazil, Meray Maddah, and Dylan O'Driscoll
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The 2019 protests in Iraq and Lebanon revealed a widespread dissatisfaction with political systems based on sectarian and ethnosectarian power-sharing, which many saw as being responsible for a host of governance failures. This has given rise to demands for a wholesale change of the political systems in both countries. However, the dismantlement of identity-based power-sharing systems is a remote prospect—they are deeply entrenched, and change would depend on action from the very political elites that benefit from them. Instead, this SIPRI Policy Paper explores what can be done in the short term to address some of the key challenges confronting Iraq and Lebanon. In contexts where the political elites’ grip on the political system remains tight, every possible opportunity for reform must be grasped.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Governance, Reform, and Public Service
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Lebanon
24. Iraqi diaspora mobilization and the future development of Iraq
- Author:
- Oula Kadhum
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Iraqi diaspora mobilization and the future development of Iraq – authored by Dr. Oula Kadhum, explores Iraqi diaspora mobilization before and after the 2003 invasion and fall of the regime of Saddam Hussein. It looks at the ways members of the diaspora sought to help in the rebuilding of their country of origin, at both the elite and grassroots levels, as well as investigating changes over time. Importantly, it analyses the obstacles that have hindered diaspora mobilization since 2003 and argues that the Iraqi diaspora is a valuable, yet largely untapped resource for Iraq.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, Politics, Diaspora, Resilience, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
25. Building a Strong and Independent Iraq: Policy Guidance for the Biden Administration
- Author:
- Abram N. Shulsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Formulating US policy toward Iraq can be a fraught matter, given all the debate and disagreement concerning the actions that brought us to the current situation. However, our policy must be formulated in light of it, regardless of views about our past actions. Policy formulation should begin with the realization that Iran has gained a predominant political and military influence in Iraq. Despite efforts of past PM Adel Abdul Mahdi and current PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, many of the militias comprising the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) still answer to Iran, not the Iraqi government. Iran exerts widespread influence throughout the political class. Economically, Iraq remains dependent on Iran for energy;1 religious tourism from Iran to the holy sites in Karbala and Najaf is an important source of revenue; and Iran has flooded markets with cheap food and consumer goods. Although Iraqi oil production has rebounded, the economy remains relatively moribund and the level of basic public services is poor. (That Iraq flares off its natural gas at the same time it is importing it from Iran to produce electricity2 highlights the economic disfunction.) Popular discontent boiled over in 2019, leading to widespread protests. The protests took on an anti-Iranian aspect, and Iran-aligned PMF units attacked the protestors.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Economics, Government, Politics, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America
26. How the Islamic State Sees the Future: Why the end of times does not mean the end
- Author:
- Florence Gaub
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- One would not exactly think of the Islamic State (IS) as a future-oriented organisation: it uses medieval-sounding language and barbaric methods and preaches an archaic lifestyle. In reality, however, it is very much a forward-looking organisation with clear ideas not just on what the future will bring, but on what it should bring. In fact, it is this attitude towards the future that has not only enabled its past successes, but also allowed the organisation to persist and endure since losing its territory in Syria and Iraq – and, most importantly, what will determine its next steps and ambition. Understanding how IS conceives its own future will enable law enforcement authorities to take the necessary precautions ahead of time. This Brief first outlines why it is crucial to understand how the future as an organising principle shapes the strategy and posture of terrorist organisations, and shows that terrorist organisations lacking such a concept will lose traction faster than those that do. It goes on to examine IS’s future concept pre-and post-loss of its territory and to elaborate why it was and is an attractive future. Lastly, it seeks to anticipate the future trajectory IS will take based on its articulation of an eschatological vision of the future.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Islamic State, and Future
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North Africa, and Syria
27. Still Not There: Global Violent Deaths Scenarios, 2019–30
- Author:
- Gergely Hideg and Anna Alvazzi del Frate
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- The year 2018 was characterized by a decrease in lethal violence in several of the world’s hotspots, primarily due to a significant de-escalation of the armed conflicts in Iraq, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Syria. The homicide rate also decreased marginally due to population growth outpacing the nominal increase in killings between 2017 and 2018. These two trends jointly resulted in a modest positive change in the rate of violent deaths globally in 2018 which, at 7.8 violent deaths per 100,000 population, is at its lowest since 2012. Still Not There: Global Violent Deaths Scenarios, 2019–30, a Briefing Paper by the Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project provides an updated trend analysis of global violent deaths and develops global-level scenarios for the years leading to 2030. Based on 2018 figures from the Small Arms Survey’s Global Violent Deaths (GVD) database, the paper also includes a specific analysis of developments in Northern Africa and the five nations of the G5 Sahel region. It finds that under a business-as-usual scenario, Northern Africa’s violent death rate would remain relatively stable by 2030. By contrast, under the same scenario, the fatality rate in the G5 Sahel region would increase significantly.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Conflict, Violence, and Death
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Iraq, Syria, Myanmar, and South Sudan
28. A Shiite Division: The repercussions of the possible postponement of the Iraqi parliamentary elections
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On August 19, the Iraqi President called for a national dialogue regarding the upcoming elections, expressing his concerns about the challenges holding the elections on time. Thus, Iraq once again faces uncertainty regarding the fate of the upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 10, 2021. A number of the Iraqi political forces announced their desire to postpone the elections, in support of the position of the leader of the Sadrist movement, while other forces oppose this approach and stand by holding the elections on their scheduled date.
- Topic:
- Elections, Muqtada al-Sadr, Parliament, and Shiism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
29. Afghanistan’s Ripples: Can the US withdraw from Iraq?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The Taliban’s control of Kabul and the extension of its sovereignty over the majority of Afghanistan, following the withdrawal of US forces, have raised debates regarding the fate of the US forces in Iraq. Is Washington going to withdraw from Iraq as well, particularly in light of previous US threats to do so, or will the Afghan experience not be repeated in Iraq?
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, and Iraq War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and United States of America
30. Mutual Concessions: Did al-Kadhimi’s visit to Tehran achieve its objectives?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- On September 12, 2021, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, led a high-profile government delegation on an official one-day visit to Tehran that came upon invitation from Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Besides Raisi, al-Kadhimi also met Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and other senior officials.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Domestic Politics, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
31. Rebuffing Accusations: Implications of Esmail Qaani to Iraq Following Attempted Assassination of al-Kadhimi
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Iraqi media outlets such as Dijlah, Al-Rafidain TV and Al-Sharqiya, on November 7, reported that Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Force, a branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), had arrived in the Iraqi capital on November 7 on an unannounced visit. Qaani met with the chiefs of Shi’ite militant groups, as well as Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and the Iraqi President Barham Salih. Qaani expressed rejection of the assassination attempt on al-Kadhimi. Qaani’s visit was part of Iran’s efforts to bring its Iraqi armed groups under control in exchange for giving their parties a share in the next government.
- Topic:
- Government, Non State Actors, Media, and Assassination
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
32. Iran’s Resistance Axis Rattled by Divisions: Asaib Ahl al-Haq’s Leader Rejects the Ceasefire in Iraq
- Author:
- Jacob Lees Weiss
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- On December 20, 2020, 21 Katyusha rockets struck the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, breaking an Iranian-sponsored ceasefire in Iraq for a second time (U.S. Central Command, December 23, 2020). The Iraqi security forces later arrested a member of the Iraqi political and militant organization Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), Hussam al-Azirjawi, after finding conclusive evidence of his involvement in the attack (al-Hurra, December 26, 2020). Following al-Azirjawi’s arrest, multiple widely-shared clips on social media appeared to show a large mobilization of armed AAH militants in East Baghdad. A further clip showing masked AAH gunmen threatening to attack Iraqi security forces on command from AAH leader, Qais al-Khazali (al-Arabiya, December 25 2020). These arrests and video clips reveal that AAH has begun to show increasing signs of dissent from the party line set by Iran and its most loyal proxy in Iraq, Kata’ib Hezbollah.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Conflict, Militias, and Resistance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
33. America’s “Forever War” and the End of the Washington-led Unipolar World
- Author:
- Darren Spinck
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
- Abstract:
- America’s retreat from Afghanistan culminated in the country falling back into control of the Taliban, the very group that provided safe- haven for al-Qaeda prior to the September 11, 2001 attacks. America suffered immeasurable pain and costs from this jihadist attack on US soil, made possible by intelligence failures, evolved for the “Global War on Terror.” Twenty years later, Washington still has not learned from pre-9/11 mistakes. Prior to America’s complete withdrawal from Afghanistan, US intelligence was unable to convince the White House of the Afghan government’s fragility and the Taliban’s intentions. Radical Islamists in Afghanistan capitalized on policymaking which did not recognize the emerging Islamist threat towards America. Al-Qaeda’s September 11 tactical victory begat a series of foreign policy blunders in Afghanistan as strategies missteps again, celebrating another victory over America when the Taliban flag rose over the Afghan presidential palace on September 11, 2021.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Leadership, and Civil-Military Relations
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
34. The US policy in Iraq
- Author:
- Srush H.A. Khoshnaw
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- This report is a summary of a policy debate held at MERI on Wednesday, 24 November 2021, attended by a selection of policy makers, politicians and academics. Discussions focused on the current US Administration’s priorities and its policies in the wider Middle East, Iraq and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI).
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Hegemony, Leadership, Conflict, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
35. Iraq’s National Strategy to Counter Violent Extremism
- Author:
- Kamaran Palani
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Four years after the military defeat of the so-called Islamic State, pre-existing conditions associated with the risk of violent extremism continue unabated in Iraq. The current national strategy to counter violent extremism needs a comprehensive revision to include the context, needs and realities of the country’s different regions.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
36. Providing security in Iraq - what do Iraqis think?
- Author:
- Maria-Louise Clausen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Denmark assumed leadership of NATO Mission Iraq in late 2020. The Iraqi people’s perceptions of their personal security and of those who provide it can impact the success of this mission. A recent survey provides new insights. At a time of political turmoil and insecurity in Iraq, NATO has vowed to step up its commitment in the region. This happens at a time of increased resistance to the US presence in Iraq, and a deteriorating security situation due to the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran taking place on Iraqi soil, as well as signs of an Islamic State resurgence. Security is a major concern in Iraq. When respondents were asked to select their most important concern for the Iraqi government to address, the most common choice was ‘maintaining security and stability’ (30.5%), closely followed by the job situation (27.5%), and corruption (26.2%). This should be read in conjunction with the fact that 71.7% of respondents stated that they experience their personal security as currently either only partially or not at all ensured. This was most pronounced among the surveyed Shias, with only 18.8% indicating that they feel fully or partly secure in contrast to 46.7% of Sunni respondents.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Democratization, Diplomacy, International Organization, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Denmark
37. Making women count, not just counting women: Creating a more effective security sector in Iraq requires increased inclusiveness
- Author:
- Maria-Louise Clausen and Ekatherina Zhukova
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- A priority for NATO Mission Iraq is to further the Women, Peace and Security agenda as one of the mission’s activities. This effort should focus on raising awareness of the operational benefits of equal opportunities and diversity and not just counting the number of women involved. RECOMMENDATIONS: Formulate a clear mandate for WPS functions in the mission that positions the WPS agenda as an integral element of NMI’s other activities. Support awareness-raising programmes and initiatives to transform social norms, including patriarchal gender norms and institutional socio-political constraints on female participation. Support the transparent qualifications-based recruitment and employment of women and prioritize the focus on inclusive work environments, both mentally and physically. Incorporate intersectional and masculinity perspectives in the work on WPS to avoid creating an image of WPS as a foreign-backed agenda that is only of, by and for elite women.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, International Organization, Non State Actors, Women, Fragile States, Violence, Peace, Police, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
38. Persistent Challenges The future of the US presence in Iraq following the fourth round of the strategic dialogue
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- At the conclusion of the fourth round of the strategic dialogue between Baghdad and Washington, US President Joe Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi signed an agreement officially ending the US combat mission in Iraq by the end of 2021, more than 18 years after US forces entered Iraq. In return, Baghdad confirmed Iraq's commitment to protecting the international coalition personnel, who provide advisory and training assistance. According to the statements of the Iraqi Foreign Minister, the fourth round of the strategic dialogue between the two countries will be the last. Hence, the understandings that took place between the two sides will form the general framework governing the bilateral relations between the two countries.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Armed Forces, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
39. Multilayered Challenges: Why are foreign oil companies planning to leave Iraq?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Numerous foreign oil companies have recently announced plans to sell their shares in several major oil fields in Iraq, as part of measures that may negatively impact Iraqi oil production. There are multiple explanations for this step, including unstable security and political conditions as well as Iraq's failure to pay foreign companies their dues for operating the fields, in addition to the growing Chinese influence in the oil sector.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, and Business
- Political Geography:
- China, Iraq, and Middle East
40. The Egyptian-Jordanian-Iraqi triangle: Reviving an Arab axis in changed circumstances
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Egyptian, Iraqi, and Jordanian leaderships continue to seek enhanced cooperation among them, as if reviving the Arab alliance that they had formed in the past, in order to overcome unfavourable changes in the regional environment.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Arab Countries, Leadership, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan
41. NATO in Iraq: Not a Surge
- Author:
- Michael Knights, Pierre Morcos, and Charles Thépaut
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- NATO stands ready to increase its commitment in a slow and steady manner consistent with Baghdad’s needs, but careful communication will be crucial, as will a more strategic discussion on how to combine different assistance efforts. On February 18, NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg announced a decision to increase the size of NATO Mission Iraq (NMI) from 500 personnel to as many as 4,000. Although he noted that such deployments would be “conditions-based,” “incremental,” and subject to Baghdad’s authorization, the troop numbers were the only element of his announcement widely reported inside Iraq, resulting in swift political pressure on the government to explain the seemingly steep increase. In fact, there is no imminent NATO “surge” planned in Iraq, but rather a greater openness and general intent to gradually provide more advisors capable of assisting local authorities with security sector reform (SSR). When handled appropriately and combined with other efforts, this initiative can create good opportunities for quiet, persistent security cooperation that helps strengthen the Iraqi state, evolve multinational military relations beyond the campaign against the Islamic State (IS), and spread the burden of support more broadly among U.S. allies.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East