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1322. Making Sense of Turkish-EU Relations in the Aftermath of the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Bülent Aras
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- Both the EU’s recognition of the importance of its value system and Turkey’s rediscovery of its European component in its foreign policy identity have occurred during a period of radical transformation in the Mediterranean region. The Arab Spring has resulted in a process of renegotiation over territory, identity and governance which has eventually fostered the idea of a new regional political community. The EU is in an advantageous position now if it truly wants to build a political community eastwards and southwards. One logical move would be a renegotiation in the EU over Turkey’s role in a new vision for the future of the EU. Turkey’s European identity and policy style will continue to shape its own neighbourhood policy as it is at the centre of a new geopolitical thinking. Ankara sees itself as having an order-instituting role in its changing neighbourhood and is in a process of recalibrating its policies in this direction. The Turkish and EU models complement each other, and there is no possibility for any other model to compete with these perspectives in the foreseeable
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
1323. Is NATO Still Necessary for Canada?
- Author:
- J. L. Granatstein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been the most successful military alliance of the modern era. Set up in 1949 to counter the Soviet Union, NATO won the Cold War some four decades later without firing a shot. Perhaps it might have been better if NATO had wound itself up at the end of the Cold War. The alliance instead sought a new role and found it out of area. It conducted operations in Former Yugoslavia, war against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, and later still an air campaign that brought down Gaddafi in Libya. None of these operations were notable successes. In 2011, then U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates stated that NATO faced “the real possibility [of] a dim, if not dismal future....The military capabilities simply aren’t there." The transatlantic alliance, Gates said, must confront fundamental strategic questions about its future. All this makes a hard look at NATO essential. The European nations can readily handle the defence of their territory, and it is time to ask if NATO is the best way for us to contribute to Western defence, to ask which nations can and will act to protect democratic values? The "Anglosphere" states all fought in Afghanistan. So too did France and Denmark. And in Asia, there are other friendly states. There is no talk of a military alliance yet but there is the possibility of coalitions of the willing. Instead of pledging fealty to NATO's hollow shell, it is time for Canadians to produce a strategy for the next twenty years. Any such review will give primacy to Canada’s alliance with the United States. But one question must be asked and answered: does NATO any longer serve our political and military needs?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America
1324. Exigencies of Future Deployments: What Canada must Exact from its Military Partners
- Author:
- Hugh Segal and Jessica McLean
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- An increase in global threats, failing states, and crisis prone regions around the world, coupled with shrinking defence budgets in the US, as well as budget cuts in Canada’s most loyal joint deployment partners – France, the UK, and The Netherlands – indicates there will be no less of a demand for Canadian deployable capacity over the next few years. In this context, understanding the ‘political’ requirements for various kinds of deployments is important and a key planning area for defence policy makers as well as military and strategic practitioners. To better understand the future of Canadian military deployments it is first necessary to examine the historical context of our post-war NATO and UN deployments as well as Prime Minister Harper’s 2006 commitment that required all significant military deployments to have parliamentary approval. Each deployment since WW II has been unique. The command structures, intelligence-sharing, mission design and assigned areas of responsibility for Canada, whether under the UN or NATO, have varied by the deployment itself and the nature of the mission. This requires our political and command requirements to adapt to the mission at hand. But whether or not Canada will participate in future deployments relies on not just being able to answer the question of “why”, but also “why us”. Reticence on the part of NATO allies will continue to be a problem in the future and so Canada must be capable to ensure it only takes part in “coalition of the willing” deployments to ensure realistic burden sharing. The pivot towards the Pacific will also require fresh and deeper intelligence cooperation with Australia, other Commonwealth partners in the region and enhanced interoperable capacity with our American allies.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Troop Deployment, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America
1325. 2011— A Testing Year for Turkish Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Özdem Sanberk
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
- Abstract:
- 2011 was undoubtedly a year that witnessed the beginning of grand transformations which will continue in the years ahead. The popular movements under the name of the Arab Spring started in Tunisia and spread quickly to the rest of the region, sparking the process of political transformation. In another part of the world, the economic crisis which began in Greece and then engulfed the whole eurozone took the European Union to a difficult test regarding its future. Both events, one lying to the south of Turkey and the other to its west, interact directly with our country and therefore its zone of interest. Ankara inevitably stands in the epicenter of these two transformations of which the effects will certainly continue for a long period. Consequently, rising as a stable focus of power with its growing economy and its expanding democracy, Turkey has tried to respond to historically important developments throughout the year. In light of these realities and developments, this study will focus on the performance of Turkish foreign policy with regard to global and regional transformations which took place during 2011.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Diplomacy, and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Asia
1326. TURKEY FOCUS POLICY BRIEF No: 1 Culture, Religion, EU-Turkey and Cyprus: Dilemma
- Author:
- Ret. Amb. YALIM ERALP
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- Cultural differences have become, in the eyes of some, an impediment to Turkish accession to the EU. French sociologist Amaury de Riencourt makes a clear distinction between culture and civilization. From his perspective, "..Culture and Civilisation are two expressions that have been used more or less indiscriminately and interchangeably in the past. The distinction between them is of organic succession. They do not coincide in time but follow each other during the life span of a par-ticular society: each Culture engenders its own Civilisation..."
- Topic:
- International Relations and Culture
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
1327. Towards efficient early action: The EU needs a regional focus and proactive tools to prevent and manage conflicts
- Author:
- Tanja Tamminen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Lisbon Treaty and the European External Action Service provide the EU with an excellent framework for comprehensive and effective crisis prevention and crisis management work. They just need to be utilised to the full. The security and development nexus can only be enhanced through long-term perspectives. Rather than renewing its general security strategy, the EU's focus should be on preparing tailor made and institutionally endorsed regional approaches and strategies, where the broad objectives would be operationalized into more concrete goals. In conflict-prone regions, goal-setting should be carried out through full participation with the beneficiary countries and their civil societies. Dialogue and mediation are perfect tools for achieving reconciliation and stability, and need to be utilized at every stage of comprehensive crisis management and at different levels of society. Comprehensive EU activities in the field of crisis prevention and crisis management should be duly evaluated, as only by looking at the bigger picture can lessons truly be learned and endorsed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Security, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Lisbon
1328. Not just another arms deal: The security policy implications of the United States selling advanced missiles to Finland
- Author:
- Charly Salonius-Pasternak
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Finland's decision to acquire advanced semi-stealthy Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) from the United States is much more than an arms deal – it has significant political and regional military implications. Finland is only the second country to be approved for JASSM. No NATO country has ever received such approval. This suggests something about the closeness of the relationship between the United States and Finland, as well as something about how the United States sees European and regional defence arrangements. In the web of multilateral, multinational and bilateral relationships that Finland is weaving to enhance its security, the US relationship is a key cable The JASSM acquisition significantly changes Finland's ability to disrupt enemy activities, both within Finland and beyond its borders. Despite being a conventional weapon, it will serve as a deterrent. Finnish decision-makers have a responsibility to understand both the implications of the new capabilities, and to ensure that the continued development of the Finnish Defence Forces is not inhibited due to misunderstandings of what a modern defence requires and consists of.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Finland
1329. The electoral trap: Why the EU should think beyond Belarus's parliamentary election
- Author:
- Anaïs Marin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- One should not expect the 23 September election to comply with democratic standards. The current legislation in Belarus does not guarantee a free and fair process. The institutional setting prevents a transparent vote count and the election of opposition candidates. Yet, in sending a full-fledged observation mission to Belarus, the OSCE again appears to be giving official Minsk the benefit of the doubt. Breaking the vicious circle of external regime legitimation would require consistency and restraint in giving this periodic electoral farce any credence whatsoever. Imitating procedural democracy brings regime consolidation for Lukashenka: enticing the opposition forces – and their Western supporters for that matter – into the electoral trap is a preemptive scheme to disqualify them. Decapitated, divided, distrusted, the opposition is incapable of carrying out regime change. The regime's repressive build-up also dissuades Belarusians from mobilising to contest the predictable fraud – for now. They are nonetheless expressing increasing demands for independent election monitoring. In view of the 2015 presidential elections, the EU should invest more in the capacity-building and training of civil society actors, notably domestic election observers. Turning voters into reliable rule of law watchdogs could raise awareness in, and demand for democracy in Belarus.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Corruption, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Belarus
1330. Much ado about nothing? State-controlled entities and the change in German investment law
- Author:
- Thomas Jost
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- The rise of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) -- together state-controlled entities (SCEs) -- has led to concerns that SCEs could threaten national security by following political rather than mere commercial goals with respect to their foreign direct investment (FDI). While developed countries acknowledged that the rise of SCEs should not lead to new barriers to FDI, several have changed their legislation to expand government oversight of FDI flows. In 2009, Germany also tightened its foreign investment regime. What are the first experiences with this change in German investment law?
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Law
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
1331. Poland: Industry Forecast
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- GDP is expected to rise by 2.6% in 2012 and expand by 2.7% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, GDP is predicted to grow on average by 3.2% a year. Manufacturing output growth is forecast to be higher than GDP growth over the next decade. Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 2.1% in 2012 and expand by 5.3% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, manufacturing output is expected to grow on average by 4.3% a year. As a result, the share of manufacturing output in GDP is projected to rise from 25.4% in 2011 to 27.2% by 2016 and increase to 28.7% by 2021. Over the same period, the share of service sector output in GDP is expected to decline from 58.5% in 2011 to 57.2% in 2016 and fall to 56.2% in 2021.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Poland
1332. Country Economic Forecasts: Germany
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The German economy is clearly slowing in the face of the latest phase of the Eurozone crisis. We expect the impact of the crisis on business investment and exports to cause the economy to contract in Q2 before recovering slowly in H2. As a result, GDP growth is now forecast to slow to 0.7% in 2012 overall from 3.1% last year, before accelerating to 1.4% in 2013.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
1333. Commission v. Gazprom: The antitrust clash of the decade?
- Author:
- Alan Riley
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- It may well be that the Gazprom antitrust case launched by DG Competition on September 4th will turn out to be the landmark antitrust case of this decade, as Microsoft was of the last decade. The argument of this paper is that, for a host of political and economic reasons, this case is likely to be hard fought by both sides to a final prohibition decision and then onwards into the EU courts. In the process, the European gas market and the powers of DG Competition in the energy field are likely to be transformed.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, Natural Resources, and Law
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1334. EU engagement in the Sahel: lessons from Somalia and AfPak
- Author:
- Damien Helly
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- On 19 November, the Council of the EU welcomed the Crisis Management Concept for a possible EU training mission for Mali, paving the way for the launch of a CSDP operation replicating the work done in Uganda with Somali troops. And many in Brussels have started to speak of EUTM Mali, as if EUTM and more generally the EU approach to the crisis in Somalia was a relevant model for action in Mali.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Terrorism, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Afghanistan, Africa, Europe, Somalia, Mali, and Mauritania
1335. After austerity: futures for Europe's defence industry
- Author:
- Andrea Gilli
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- In October 2012, the merger between BAE Systems (GB) and EADS (France, Germany and Spain), two of the biggest defence contractors in the world, failed. Despite this setback, further consolidation within the European defence industry is likely to occur in the near future. Because of the eurozone crisis, in recent years EU countries have significantly curtailed their public expenditure, defence included. This has important implications for the structure of the European defence industrial base. Specifically, defence companies are dependent on public defence expenditure. When defence spending declines, industrial overcapacity results. This, in turn, calls for restructuring and consolidation. Inevitably, EU countries will have to go down this road. However, given their ongoing concerns regarding sovereignty, technology and jobs, there are good reasons to think that they will promote the consolidation of their defence industry through a mix of Europe, NATO, extra-EU and purely national solutions.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Germany, and Spain
1336. Russia's pressure politics: The Kremlin's uncompromising approach to opponents threatens political stability
- Author:
- Sean Roberts
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- If Russia is to follow an evolutionary path to democracy, then the regime must be ready to draw the so-called 'non-systemic' opposition into political processes. This gradualist formula for democratic change is also the formula for political stability. A number of liberalising reforms conducted by the regime in response to widespread protests following the December 2011 State Duma election gave grounds for optimism that this process is now underway. However, any hopes that these events would kick-start democratic reforms were short-lived. Rather than draw in opponents, the regime has sought to isolate them, using a combination of reform, non-reform, dividing tactics and repression. But the results have not been positive. The non-systemic opposition is under increasing pressure, having seen its options all but reduced to more protesting. It is also showing signs of radicalisation. At the same time, the Kremlin's uncompromising approach is undermining regime stability. The pressure is building in the Russian political system. The combination of repression and radicalisation could easily see political stagnation degenerate into instability and the EU should take this new dynamic into account in its future policy planning.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Democratization, Government, Political Economy, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
1337. Bringing Stability to Europe: Why Europe needs a banking union
- Author:
- Erik Jones
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The European sovereign debt crisis is the result of capital flows across the single market. The danger that such capital flows could unleash market speculation was known from the start; indeed, the single currency was created to remove the threat of exchange rate instability. The problem is that the architects of the single currency did not consider the impact of capital market integration on the banking sector or on the relationship between banks and national governments. Once markets lost confidence in the security of their cross-border investments, investors began to pull back their capital and the internal market for financial services started to disintegrate. The creation of a banking union is part of the solution. However, the euro area also needs a common 'risk-free' asset to use as a safe haven in times of crisis.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
1338. EU's Readmission Agreement and Visa Liberalization Talks with Turkey: Backing up Turkey's Protracted Way to the EU
- Author:
- Lenka Peťková
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- European Union (EU) has been reluctant to start visa liberalization talks with Turkey until mid–2012 despite the fact that citizens of all other candidate countries have enjoyed visa-free travel to Schengen area since 2009. The Turkish diplomats had mastered to negotiate roadmap to visa-free travel in an exchange for the initial of the readmission agreement, implementation of which is considered key in securing EU's eastern borders. The issues of migration and visa policy are covered in the negotiating chapter Justice, Freedom and Security, which has been blocked by the Republic of Cyprus. Demonstrating that the said topics represent joint interest of Turkey and the EU, the chapter was added to the positive agenda launched this May with the aim to keep Turkey's accession process alive. Despite the fact that visa liberalization and readmission agreement will both be negotiated outside of Turkey's accession framework, reforms adopted in these areas are likely to ease Turkey's alignment with the provisions of the relevant chapter of the acquis communautaire. Visa liberalization and readmission agreement are thus important factors influencing Turkey's protracted journey to the EU.
- Topic:
- Islam, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Famine
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
1339. The moment of truth: how the EU can build the ground for lasting environmental policy change in Morocco
- Author:
- Eva-Maria Maggi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
- Abstract:
- The stage of implementation is the moment of truth for every attempt to change a policy. Accordingly, the European Union (EU) can only promote lasting policy change within its Neighborhood Policy (ENP) if reforms are reaching the ground. In Morocco, the EU promoted environmental reform agenda is often successfully adapted into national law, but its application is lacking. The cases of Morocco's water and renewable energy show that administrative capacity and the interests of domestic actors are crucial in supporting a comprehensive change in environmental policy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North Africa, and Morocco
1340. What the EU can do to support further minority protection in Turkey
- Author:
- Gözde Yilmaz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
- Abstract:
- Considering the recent developments in the EU member states, such as French dismantling of Roma camps, minority protection within the EU has increasingly become questionable. Although the EU often neglects the track record of member states' records in minority rights, minority protection has increasingly received EU's attention in the accession process of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). Minority discontent as a potential threat to the stability of Europe in the aftermath of the Cold War has triggered the EU to focus on minority rights. However, the improvement of minority rights in candidate countries remains limited, especially considering the implementation of minority rules adopted in the pre-accession process.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Islam, and Minorities
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey