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2. Germany, Russia, and Energy Politics
- Author:
- Kalev Stoicescu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- In the fifth and final brief in our Germany and Baltic Security series, Kalev Stoicescu examines another of Germany’s key bilateral relationships—with Russia. Relations between Germany (or historical German and German-led states) and Russia have greatly influenced the Baltic region for centuries. In recent years, what the Baltic states see as Germany’s over-reliance on Russian gas supplies, even as they themselves have tried to secure energy independence from Russia, has been a source of tension. The Nord Stream pipelines, which Germany claims are a business project, but which the Baltic states regard as a security risk, have been particularly problematic. But at the same time, the Baltic states recognise that Germany has since 2014 adopted a resolute approach towards Russia regarding sanctions; even if they are sceptical that Berlin’s ambiguous policies towards Moscow, being both firm and conciliatory, will change Russia’s behaviour. With the appointment as foreign minister of Annalena Baerbock, who has opposed Nord Stream 2 and strongly criticised Russia’s misconduct, Olaf Scholz’s new government may stand closer to Baltic perceptions and interests and become a more principled and difficult counterpart for Russia. The Baltic states might be encouraged to trust Germany more in its dealings with Russia, but the new government must first prove itself in its words and actions.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Germany, and Baltic States
3. Europe’s Energy and Resource Challenge The Arctic Is Part of the Solution
- Author:
- Marie-Anne Coninsx and Karen van Loon
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The EU’s increased climate ambitions require unprecedented growth in renewable energy and a diversified supply of critical raw materials. Building long-term partnerships and investing in innovation will be vital to pave the way for a clean and secure energy future. With energy being used as a prominent geopolitical weapon and energy prices soaring, the need for enhanced energy security and reliable resource suppliers is essential. The EU has realized it must reduce its natural resources’ dependence to ensure its prosperity, safeguard its interests, and reinforce its strategic autonomy. Especially the European Arctic region should be taken into account when considering the role it can play as a provider of renewable energy, sustainable development, and a reliable supplier of critical raw materials. Despite the specific challenges and costs associated with its cold and vulnerable climate, the region has certain advantages over parts of the world where political instability or low environmental standards are problematic. With its available resources, expertise, and technological innovations, the Arctic, which is often called an innovative testbed and a high-tech knowledge hub, can be instrumental for the EU to realize its Green Deal objectives, end its dependence on fossil fuels, strengthen its autonomy, and ensure its prosperity.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Arctic
4. 70 years on, it's time to reinvent the ECSC
- Author:
- Thierry Lepercq
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- Upset between Berlin, Brussels and La Coruña On 16 May 2022, in the Radialsystem conference centre in Berlin, a chair remained forlornly empty. The German Minister for Education and Research, Bettina Stark-Watzinger, inaugurated the conference "Green Hydrogen for a Sustainable European Future" promoted by the German government, before handing over to her Italian counterpart, Cristina Messa, and then to European Commissioner Mariya Gabriel. The empty chair was that of the French Presidency of the European Union which, despite strenuous effort on the part of the German government, did not wish to delegate a representative. In the Chancellery, the mood was one of great tension. Nearly 100 executives representing 31 gas transmission and storage operators (TSOs) from 28 European countries met with the European Commission on 7 June 2022 in Brussels. It was time to present the latest version of the European Hydrogen Backbone (EHB), an initiative launched two years ago by the German company OGE. On the agenda was the unveiling of an ambitious plan to build 28,000 km of hydrogen pipelines across the continent by 2030. One point of interest was a dotted line linking Barcelona to Livorno - to connect the Iberian Peninsula to the rest of Europe, bypassing France, whose opposition to cross-border green hydrogen infrastructure is no longer a mystery. A few months later, on 5 October 2022 in La Coruña, Pedro Sanchez, president of the Spanish government, hosted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, together with some fifteen ministers. On the agenda of this summit: the European energy crisis and the measures that must be taken to strengthen the continent's supply security and European solidarity. One proposal stood out: to strengthen gas interconnections to allow liquefied natural gas (LNG) arriving in Spanish ports to relieve a German industry that is on the verge of suffocating - and to pave the way for the implementation of green hydrogen transport infrastructures (EHB).
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Gas, Investment, Economic Crisis, European Commission, and Energy Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, and Spain
5. The future of nuclear energy in the Baltic Sea Region
- Author:
- Izabela Surwillo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put the issue of energy supply at the top of the EU’s security agenda, leading to a drastic policy shift in energy relations with Moscow. Similarly to other European states, countries in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) are struggling to phase out Russian fossil fuels and accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy amid skyrocketing energy prices. Although there are no quick fixes, the challenge of the dual energy and climate crisis in a tense geopolitical context has triggered different policy responses across the region, with national policies increasingly pointing to the nuclear energy sector.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Crisis Management, Nuclear Energy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Net Zero
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Baltic Sea
6. How Russia Does Foresight: Where is the world going?
- Author:
- Andrew Monaghan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Thinking about the long-term future is a prominent feature of the Russian official strategic planning and public policy debate. Speaking in 2008, for instance, President Putin indicated the horizons of strategic planning when he stated that a concrete development plan for the period through to 2010 had been elaborated, and “now we need to look beyond this horizon – look at least 10 years ahead”. “Today we are deciding one of the most important issues for Russia’s future – defining its development strategy through to 2020”, he stated, and in setting out Russia's long-term vision for the future, "our long-term references must be clear to everyone”, and “must have the support of our citizens.” By the mid-2010s, policy-oriented public organisations were looking even further ahead. The Valdai Club, for instance, was conducting a project entitled Club 2035, to “look beyond the horizon” at a number of themes, including technological and socio-cultural trends, and the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) was running a “World in 100 Years” project, including the series “On the eve of 2037”. Other major institutes, such as the Institute of World Economics and International Affairs (IMEMO) and the Moscow State Institute of International Affairs (MGIMO), also hold regular major events and publish substantial volumes reflecting on twenty-first century megatrends and strategic forecasting up to 2030 and beyond.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Energy Policy, European Union, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Eurasia
7. Power play: Europe’s climate diplomacy in the Gulf
- Author:
- Cinzia Bianco
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Gulf monarchies believe hydrocarbons will continue to be a fundamental – albeit shrinking – source of revenues for decades. But, as shown by Saudi Arabia’s net-zero pledge, they now see economic and political opportunities in embracing the green energy transition. If the EU is to achieve its climate and geopolitical goals, it will need to substantially increase its engagement with Gulf states on the European Green Deal. Electricity interconnection and green hydrogen are the two most promising fields of clean energy cooperation between the sides. Europeans should not cave to international pressure to lower their ambitions on carbon taxation, including the carbon border adjustment mechanism, as this remains a powerful incentive for hydrocarbons producers to make the transition to cleaner energy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Engagement, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
8. New energies: How the European Green Deal can save the EU’s relationship with Turkey
- Author:
- Asli Aydıntaşbaş and Susi Dennison
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Europeans know that the EU needs to create a new paradigm in its relationship with Turkey after a challenging few years. The bloc also needs to develop a form of European climate leadership that complements but is distinct from Washington’s re-engagement with the green agenda. Through close cooperation with Turkey on the European Green Deal, the EU could meet both challenges and build trust in relations with Ankara. The sides have a shared interest in supporting Turkey’s pro-Western business community and in developing the promising Turkish renewables sector. EU member states should help Turkey manage the impact of the new trade regulations the European Green Deal would bring in. This refreshed approach would not resolve broader disputes over issues such as human rights – but it could start rules-based engagement and change the mood music enough to improve other areas of the relationship.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, and Green Deal
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Turkey
9. Power surge: How the European Green Deal can succeed in Morocco and Tunisia
- Author:
- Amine Bennis
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- North African countries such as Morocco and Tunisia can help Europe meet its carbon emissions targets and strengthen its position in the face of fierce competition from China for economic and political influence. By encouraging European investment in renewable energy, the European Green Deal can increase local workforce opportunities, promote development, and stabilise migration, enhancing stability in the region. The EU should promote green hydrogen projects in Morocco and Tunisia. These would contribute to its climate neutrality goals and develop both European industrial leadership and local economies. The EU should also promote new electrical interconnections across the Mediterranean, to foster an integrated electricity market. Morocco and Tunisia should become official “Green Partners” of the EU. This would help catalyse joint action and ease those countries’ green transitions – especially that of Tunisia, which is particularly in need of help building additional capacity.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, European Union, Electricity, and Green Deal
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Morocco, and Tunisia
10. 2023: Turning Moment for European Energy Policy toward Balkans and the European Promotion of the Rule of Law
- Author:
- Aleksandar Kovacevic
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
- Abstract:
- The year 2023 is likely to bring congruence of events that may cause a “perfect storm” of breaking down security of energy supply, fragile political stability in the Balkans and its unsustainable social contract. As the region grows fragmented from mid-1960’s till nowadays, very few economic forces remain the EU than among themselves. The terms of trade favor imports against exports. After 20 years of infrastructure development and integration efforts, with support of donors and creditors, despite small improvements; Logistic Performance Index (LPI) for the Balkan countries remains slightly over half of best performers such as Germany. Port resources in place that may cause such impact to entire region in the given moment of time. Cross border trade in goods and services is negligibly small. Countries trade more with the rest of are not allocated in line with the commercial practice. That is not good enough for the region that links Mediterranean with the landlocked Danube area. Travel time along major railway routes (Zagreb – Belgrade or Belgrade -Bar) are twice longer than during 1980’s. Belgrade Port, that is the key destination for transport with all sea ports in the region is constrained by the city planning and kept below minimum throughput to be reported in European inland port statistics. Croatia, Montenegro or Albania, are hardly in position to engage into trade as their ports operate far below competitive thresholds. The transactions are prohibitively expensive.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, European Union, and Rule of Law
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans
11. Commercialisation contracts: European support for low-carbon technology deployment
- Author:
- Ben McWilliams and Georg Zachmann
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Many of the technologies that can help the European Union become a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 have been shown to work but are not yet commercially competitive with incumbent fossil-fuel technologies. There is not enough private investment to drive the deployment of new low-carbon alternatives. This is primarily because carbon prices are neither high enough nor stable. There are a number of benefits from the deployment of low-carbon technologies that private firms do not factor in. These include the benefits of decreasing industry-wide costs over time, and the global climate benefits from the development of low-carbon technologies within the EU that can subsequently be exported. The result is an investment level below the socially optimal value in the EU. Commercialisation contracts could be implemented as a temporary measure to remove the risk associated with uncertain carbon prices for ambitious low-carbon projects. The aim of the contracts would be to increase private investment to the socially optimal level. Contracts would be allocated through auctions in which fixed prices for abated emissions over a fixed duration would be agreed on a project-by-project basis. On an annual basis, public subsidies amounting to the difference between the agreed carbon price and the actual EU carbon price would be provided to investors, depending on the total carbon emissions abated. As long as EU carbon prices are low, investors would receive larger subsidies to ensure their competitiveness. Contracts would be auctioned at EU level. This would generate increased competition compared to national auctions, leading to more efficient outcomes and preventing fragmentation of the single market. From about €3 billion to €6 billion would be provided to the main industrial emitting sectors annually, with the amount reducing as the EU carbon price rises and low-carbon technologies become competitive without subsidy.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Investment, Trade, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
- Political Geography:
- Europe
12. Navigating through hydrogen
- Author:
- Ben McWilliams and Georg Zachmann
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Hydrogen is seen as a means to decarbonise sectors with greenhouse gas emissions that are hard to reduce, as a medium for energy storage, and as a fallback in case halted fossil-fuel imports lead to energy shortages. Hydrogen is likely to play at least some role in the European Union’s achievement by 2050 of a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target. However, production of hydrogen in the EU is currently emissions intensive. Hydrogen supply could be decarbonised if produced via electrolysis based on electricity from renewable sources, or produced from natural gas with carbon, capture, and storage. The theoretical production potential of low-carbon hydrogen is virtually unlimited and production volumes will thus depend only on demand and supply cost. Estimates of final hydrogen demand in 2050 range from levels similar to today’s in a low-demand scenario, to ten times today’s level in a high-demand scenario. Hydrogen is used as either a chemical feedstock or an energy source. A base level of 2050 demand can be derived from looking at sectors that already consume hydrogen and others that are likely to adopt hydrogen. The use of hydrogen in many sectors has been demonstrated. Whether use will increase depends on the complex interplay between competing energy supplies, public policy, technological and systems innovation, and consumer preferences. Policymakers must address the need to displace carbon-intensive hydrogen with low-carbon hydrogen, and incentivise the uptake of hydrogen as a means to decarbonise sectors with hard-to-reduce emissions. Certain key principles can be followed without regret: driving down supply costs of low-carbon hydrogen production; accelerating initial deployment with public support to test the economic viability and enable learning; and continued strengthening of climate policies such as the EU emissions trading system to stimulate the growth of hydrogen-based solutions in the areas for which hydrogen is most suitable.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Hydrogen
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
13. A whole-economy carbon price for Europe and how to get there
- Author:
- Ottmar Edenhofer, Mirjam Kosch, Michael Pahle, and Georg Zachmann
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Putting carbon pricing at the centre of the EU climate policy architecture would provide major benefits. Obtaining these benefits requires a uniform, credible and durable carbon price – the economic first-best solution, however, several preconditions required to attain this solution are not yet met. This paper proposes a sequenced approach to ensure convergence of the policy mix on the first-best in the long run.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Europe
14. The geopolitics of the European Green Deal
- Author:
- Mark Leonard, Jeremy Shapiro, Jean Pisani-Ferry, Simone Tagliapietra, and Guntram B. Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- The European Green Deal is a plan to decarbonise the EU economy by 2050, revolutionise the EU’s energy system, profoundly transform the economy and inspire efforts to combat climate change. But the plan will also have profound geopolitical repercussions. The Green Deal will affect geopolitics through its impact on the EU energy balance and global markets; on oil and gas-producing countries in the EU neighbourhood; on European energy security; and on global trade patterns, notably via the carbon border adjustment mechanism. At least some of these changes are likely to impact partner countries adversely. The EU needs to wake up to the consequences abroad of its domestic decisions. It should prepare to help manage the geopolitical aspects of the European Green Deal. Relationships with important neighbourhood countries such as Russia and Algeria, and with global players including the United States, China and Saudi Arabia, are central to this effort, which can be structured around seven actions: Help neighbouring oil and gas-exporting countries manage the repercussions of the European Green Deal. The EU should engage with these countries to foster their economic diversification, including into renewable energy and green hydrogen that could in the future be exported to Europe. Improve the security of critical raw materials supply and limit dependence, first and foremost on China. Essential measures include greater supply diversification, increased recycling volumes and substitution of critical materials. Work with the US and other partners to establish a ‘climate club’ whose members will apply similar carbon border adjustment measures. All countries, including China, would be welcome to join if they commit to abide by the club’s objectives and rules. Become a global standard-setter for the energy transition, particularly in hydrogen and green bonds. Requiring compliance with strict environmental regulations as a condition to access the EU market will be strong encouragement to go green for all countries. Internationalise the European Green Deal by mobilising the EU budget, the EU Recovery and Resilience Fund, and EU development policy. Promote global coalitions for climate change mitigation, for example through a global coalition for the permafrost, which would fund measures to contain the permafrost thaw. Promote a global platform on the new economics of climate action to share lessons learned and best practices.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Europe
15. Small states’ security strategies need an international energy dimension: What can be learned from the Danish Nord Stream and Baltic Pipe negotiations?
- Author:
- Trine Villumsen Berling
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Denmark encountered a number of unforeseen obstacles when negotiating the Nord Stream and Baltic Pipe gas pipelines, and the country ended up standing exposed and alone. A better politics of energy alliances and better strategic preparation are key lessons for small states like Denmark when dealing with the problematic combination of security and energy. RECOMMENDATIONS: Small states should include energy in strategic documents pertaining to foreign and security policies, as energy is a tool in the security toolbox of the great powers. Self-sufficiency in energy does not mean that a country is shielded from the dynamics of international energy. Small states should strive to build enduring political alliances focused on energy. Small states should prioritise sending experts to the NATO Centre of Excellence for Energy Security in order to stay on top of the international security situation concerning energy.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, European Union, Gas, and Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Denmark, and Baltic States
16. Energising EU enlargement? The prospects of the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Wouter Zweers, Giulia Cretti, and Kristina Naunova
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- With the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans, the 2050 climate neutrality goal of the European Union has been extended to the six countries in South-Eastern Europe that aspire to join the Union. The Green Agenda is a promising tool for fostering climate and energy policy measures in the Western Balkans, a region with high vulnerability to climate change risks and little energy diversification away from coal. But could the Green Agenda also be a catalyst for renewed interest and enhanced political engagement, leading to a much-needed impetus to the EU enlargement process? This policy brief asks how the Green Agenda can work in the interest of both the objective of a climate neutral continent and the EU accession of the Western Balkan countries.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, and Diversification
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans
17. Energy price hikes: which European solutions?
- Author:
- Ramona Bloj
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- As energy prices rise around the world, against the backdrop of the post-Covid economic recovery, the 27 EU leaders discussed what Europe could do to ease the pressure on consumers at the European Council on 21-22 October. The increase in prices is due to a particular international context and is affecting all countries: China is facing electricity shortages in many provinces due to insufficient coal supply, and in the United States the price of natural gas has risen by more than 150% since the beginning of the year. However, this increase raises questions about Europe's energy strategy and its impact on climate objectives, just a few days before the opening of COP26 in Glasgow.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
18. The geopolitics of the energy transition: Global issues and European policies driving the development of renewable energy
- Author:
- Marco Siddi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Fighting climate change makes a green energy transition imperative. The transition will have significant geopolitical consequences, notably a shift of power away from fossil fuel producers that do not adapt to a decarbonizing world. Access to critical minerals, rare earth elements and storage technology for renewable energy applications will be essential, and will determine the new geopolitics of energy. Some critical elements such as cobalt are only found in a few areas of the globe. Hydrogen is a carbon-free energy carrier that will allow the storage and dispatch of energy produced by intermittent renewable sources such as solar and wind. While hydrogen trade could lead to new dependencies, it will provide a back-up for the electricity system and strengthen energy security. Currently, China is a leader in securing resources for the energy transition. The Belt and Road Initiative could consolidate its position. As it strives to be a leader in the energy transition, the EU is focusing on securing relevant supply chains, deploying technology and developing hydrogen capacity. International cooperation will accelerate the transition and give the world a chance to avoid catastrophic climate change.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
19. Greening the recovery by greening the fiscal consolidation
- Author:
- Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- In the wake of COVID-19, some economic recovery policies will help green the economy – for example, energy renovation of buildings. But there are limits to the share of stimulus that can be explicitly green. The European Union should therefore also green the fiscal consolidation by setting out the path to much higher carbon prices than today. This would guide investment and provide revenues to help the fiscal consolidation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Economy, Renewable Energy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe
20. Rebooting Europe: a framework for a post COVID-19 economic recovery
- Author:
- Julia Anderson, Simone Tagliapietra, and Guntram B. Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- COVID-19 has triggered a severe recession and policymakers in European Union countries are providing generous, largely indiscriminate, support to companies. As the recession gets deeper, a more comprehensive strategy is needed. This should be based on four principles: viability of supported entities, fairness, achieving societal goals, and giving society a share in future profits. The effort should be structured around equity and recovery funds with borrowing at EU level.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Global Recession, European Union, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Europe