Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: Europe / Topic: Economics

101. EU investment agreements and the search for a new balance: A paradigm shift from laissez-faireliberalism toward embedded liberalism?

Author:: Catharine Titi
Publication Date:: 01-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: In July 2012, in an internal document, the European Commission's Directorate-General for Trade suggested that future EU investment agreement s (EUIAs) should incorporate regulatory flexibility in the same way in which EU free trade agreements (FTAs) safeguard parties' policy space. Since it is expected that a number of treaties on the EU's negotiating agenda will be concluded in the near future, and given the policy shift that has already taken place in Canada and the US, it is time to start thinking about a new balance in a move away from investment treaties' traditional laissez-faire liberalism toward WTO law's embedded liberalism, a model whereby liberalization is embedded within a wider framework that enables public regulation in the interest of domestic stability.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Europe and Canada

102. The changing European defence market: Will the new European defence market legislation be a game-changer for Finland?

Author:: Harri Mikkola, Jukka Anteroinen, and Ville Lauttamäki
Publication Date:: 02-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The European defence industrial base is transforming. The changes in the European defence market legislation, the decrease in defence materiel demand and changing defence requirements are redefining the industry in a way that has not been seen in decades. The new European legislation in particular poses serious challenges for the Finnish defence industry, including the national market opening and the diminishing possibility for offset arrangements. It is likely that the major European states are trying to protect their own defence industrial base. The future of the Finnish defence industry will be determined by whether the European market opens up in the first place, in part or in its entirety. There is no going back to the time preceding the new legislation. It is crucial for the Finnish defence industry to find and utilize new market opportunities. Networking with the European system integrators and sub-contracting chains will be of paramount importance.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Finland

103. An Economic NATO: A New Alliance for a New Global Order

Author:: C. Boyden Gray
Publication Date:: 02-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In the aftermath of World War II, the greatest concern facing the United States and its European allies was restraining the Soviet Union and preventing the spread of communism. Cooperation on military security was paramount, and the United States and Europe rose to the challenge by creating NATO, a new type of multilateral defense agreement. Once again, the transatlantic relationship is at a new and perilous crossroads. But now it is economic, rather than military security that is at risk. Crisis grips the economies of Europe, just as the United States, mired in historic levels of unemployment in the wake of the 2008 recession, is rethinking its strategic priorities and place in the world. As before, fears mount concerning the future of liberal democracy and Western capitalism. The question is whether transatlantic cooperation will again rise to the challenge.
Topic:: NATO, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and North America

104. Lowering the Price of Russian Gas: A Challenge for European Energy Security

Author:: Adnan Vatansever and David Koranyi
Publication Date:: 03-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Europe's energy discourse has been unjustifiably preoccupied with concerns about potential physical disruptions of Russian gas. Yet, the real challenge for European-Russian energy relations, and in fact, for European energy security, lies in settling on a price that leaves both sides content. While Europe will come under increasing pressure to acquire affordable energy resources to enhance its competitiveness, Gazprom may find it increasingly difficult to deliver gas at lower prices in the coming years.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

105. Labor, Technology, and Innovation in Europe: Facing Global Risk through Increased Resiliency

Author:: Robert A. Manning and Peter Engelke
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: After the economic crisis ground global business to a halt, leaders on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean began to recognize that ensuring a stable and prosperous future would require building greater resiliency to structural risks. In the coming decades, episodic banking crises and regional economic imbalances will interrupt global growth. Robotics and computer networks will upend entire industrial sectors. Stressed global ecosystems, a changing climate, pandemics, and demographic decline will all add other risks. While no one can yet say how these risks may manifest, they will shape the future.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Europe

106. A Transatlantic Perspective on Natural Gas Security in Central and Southeastern Europe

Author:: David Koranyi
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The fundamentals of the natural gas sectors of the United States and European Union (EU) are on divergent paths. While the US prepares for gas exports on the back of the unconventional gas revolution, Europe is facing declining indigenous production and growing dependence on imports. The Central and Southeastern Europe (CSEE) region has moved closer to integrate into the EU's internal energy market, but it remains in a vulnerable position in the short-term compared to the rest of the EU and especially the US due to the region's historic exposure to Gazprom's monopolistic abuse. A concerted US, EU, and regional effort is needed to implement a diversification strategy, where US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports could make a real difference. In the medium and long run, the region can benefit from and play a crucial role in Europe's gas supply diversification strategy and may even succeed in adapting the US unconventional experience, contributing to a healthier energy import balance on the continent.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and North America

107. How to Stop Doing Business with Russia's Arm Exporter

Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Human Rights First
Abstract:: As part of the United States plan to begin military withdrawals from Afghanistan in 2014, the Department of Defense (DOD) contracted with the Russian state owned arms dealer, Rosoboronexport, to provide helicopters to the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF). DOD has continued and expanded its purchases from Rosoboronexport even while acknowledging that the Russian arms dealer has enabled mass atrocities by supplying Syria's Bashar al-Assad with weapons that have been used to murder Syrian civilians.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Human Rights, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

108. The German Election: No vote for Europe?

Author:: Timo Behr and Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The outcome of the German federal elections on September 22nd will have a significant impact on the management of the on-going eurozone crisis and set the tone for the future course of European integration. Although the EU and the euro are largely absent from current electoral debates, significant differences on these issues exist both inside and between German political parties in the run-up to the September polls. However, in the absence of significant debate, fundamental decisions over the future of EU integration will be postponed until after the election, when a cross-party compromise appears more feasible. Regardless of the election outcome, the next German government is likely to prove more conciliatory on austerity policies in Europe and will boost domestic spending, but will retain some red lines on further EU integration. While the rhetoric and the pace of change might differ significantly depending on the shape that the next coalition government takes, German eurozone policies will continue to trade fiscal solidarity for structural reforms.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

109. Role of Apprenticeships in Combating Youth Unemployment in Europe and the United States

Author:: Natalia Aivazova
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Five years since the global economic crisis began in 2008, many of the world's advanced economies are still struggling with sluggish growth and high levels of joblessness, especially among younger workers. In June 2013 the European Council expressed concern that “youth unemployment has reached unprecedented levels in several Member States” and called for “urgent action.” Much of the debate in Europe and the United States has focused on fiscal and monetary measures; while macroeconomic policy can address cyclical problems, a wide consensus recognizes the need to address structural challenges. One such challenge is a mismatch between the skills demanded by employers and those available among the population, especially younger workers. This mismatch can be addressed in part through the implementation of apprenticeship programs. The European Council recently concluded that “high quality apprenticeships and work-based learning will be promoted, notably through the European Alliance for Apprenticeships.” However, in the United States, where many are struggling to find jobs after graduating, apprenticeship programs hardly draw government and private-sector resources. Boosting apprenticeships could give both European and US workers the much-needed skills and competitive edge.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Labor Issues, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

110. Fighting the Fed

Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Since the US Federal Reserve signalled that a turn in the interest rate cycle may be on the horizon, UK and to a lesser extent Eurozone interest rates have tracked US rates higher. But the UK and Eurozone economies are less well placed than the US to cope with higher interest rates. Simulations carried out on our Global Economic Model show that higher rates would be particularly harmful to the UK economy's embryonic recovery. In an attempt to stem the rise in interest rates, the Bank of England and the ECB have introduce forward guidance but with little, if any, success. Markets do not seem convinced by the Bank of England's commitment to forward guidance and are testing its resolve. It seems likely that over time both central banks may have to strengthen their forward guidance, in the case of the Bank of England by augmenting it with further quantitative easing.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

111. Draghi's "Whatever it takes" speech was turning point in euro crisis

Publication Date:: 07-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Mario Draghi's commitment a year ago to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro looks to have been an important turning point in the Eurozone crisis. Systemic risk has fallen, the euro has strengthened, spreads on peripheral debt have narrowed and bond and equity markets have become less sensitive to bad Eurozone news flow. Indeed, to date markets seem to have taken Draghi at his word and seem unwilling to test his resolve. But although confidence in the outlook for the Eurozone among investors has risen over the past year, the real economy is yet to emerge from recession. We continue to expect this to happen in the second half of this year, a view supported by this week's improvement in the PMI data. However, unless action is taken to reduce borrowing costs paid by households and companies in the peripheral economies, the recovery will be anaemic. With that in mind, the ECB's announcement that it will ease its collateral rules only marginally is disappointing.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

112. Our bond market, your problem?

Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: Comments from the US Federal Reserve aimed at signalling that monetary policy cannot stay at historically low levels indefinitely have caused bond yields and credit spreads to rise both in the US and abroad. Higher borrowing rates are particularly inappropriate for the Eurozone which, unlike the US, is still struggling to emerge from recession. This tightening of financial conditions will place pressure on the ECB to act. Although surveys show that investors' bearishness on US government bonds is at an extreme level, suggesting that in the coming weeks bond yields are more likely to fall than rise, the longer-term trend in bond yields is now upwards. But we do not expect the rise in yields over the next two or three years to kill off the US recovery. Consequently, we believe that the US equity market is still on an upward uptrend, albeit one that will experience regular spikes in volatility as the Fed gradually moves away from its ultra-loose policy.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

113. Why the ECB should cut borrowing costs in periphery

Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: The European Central Bank has postponed any plans to introduce targeted measures to reduce the cost of borrowing for small and medium-sized businesses in the credit-starved peripheral Eurozone economies. Given the widening gap between the lower costs of borrowing for companies in Germany and France and the higher costs in the periphery, we think that there is a strong case for the ECB to take action. Simulations using our Global Macroeconomic Model show that if half the tightening in credit conditions seen since 2008 were to be reversed within two years, Eurozone GDP would be 0.7% higher by the end of 2017 than under our baseline forecast. There would be over 400,000 fewer people unemployed. This would be particularly beneficial for peripheral Eurozone risk assets.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

114. UK housing market: bellows to a bubble?

Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: The housing market is recovering, according to recent price and activity data. Post-crisis price corrections were smaller in the UK than in the US and much of Europe, and demand is now being bolstered by the government's Funding for Lending and Help to Buy schemes. This has given rise to some worries that the UK is in danger of inflating another house price bubble. While housing supply is very tight, we are not convinced that these schemes will have enough impact on demand to cause prices to take off.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

115. A Cautionary Tale: The true cost of austerity and inequality in Europe

Author:: Krisnah Poinasamy and Teresa Cavero
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Europe has often seen itself as a place where the social contract balances growth with development. A place where public services aim to ensure everyone has access to a high-quality education and no one need live in fear of falling ill. A place w here the rights of workers, and particularly of women, are respected and supported, and w here societies care for the weakest and the poorest; where the market has been harnessed to benefit society, rather than the other way round.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:: Europe

116. Iceland and Europe: Drifting further apart?

Author:: Baldur Thorhallsso and Alyson J. K. Bailes
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009 at the height of the economic crisis. Four years later, a new government has put the application on hold: the majority of Icelanders are opposed to entry, but want to continue the accession process and put the results to a vote. Iceland's longer-standing problems with European integration stem from the issue of sovereignty in general, and maintaining control over fisheries and agriculture in particular. Since 2009, anti-European feelings have been stoked by the 'Icesave' dispute, while the prospective benefits of entry (including use of the euro) have been tarnished by witnessing the fate of other small states during the euro crisis. The new government proposes remaining a member of the EEA and developing relations with other world powers. But the US commitment to Iceland has weakened over the years, and 'rising' powers like China are unable, as yet, to solve the country's core problems. In terms of both its security and its standing within the global economy, Iceland is becoming more rather than less dependent on Europe over time. The question raised by the latest political turn is whether it will have to maintain that relationship from a distance, with limited control and with no guaranteed goodwill.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

117. Three Options for the EU: Assessing the EU's powers in a true economic and political union

Author:: Teija Tiilikainen
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Safeguarding the EU's unity in the long-term development of the EMU is currently one of the major challenges for the Union. The de facto adjustments made to the EU's economic and fiscal powers due to the economic and financial crisis, including the completion of the Banking Union, create pressures to address the treaty-based division of powers and to strengthen the democratic control of the powers executed by the Union. The need to back the EU's macroeconomic goals with fiscal instruments has been made evident by the economic crisis; the position of these instruments outside the common budget might become increasingly controversial. A further increase in economic solidarity (jointly guaranteed debt, taxation power) might jeopardize the EU's stability and democratic legitimacy if carried out in the current political and institutional framework. A system of constitutional and fiscal federalism would produce a more stable outcome, but would require major changes in the EU's democratic system and system of policy implementation, in its external policies and the way its constitutional powers are arranged.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

118. How to Form a More Perfect European Banking Union

Author:: Ángel Ubide
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The euro area has made significant strides in the last six months in designing a banking union. The goal has been to centralize supervisory decision making and improve the management of failing banks while protecting European taxpayers and imposing costs on creditors through so-called bail-ins to reduce moral hazard. Euro area leaders have reached some political agreements, and legislation is being prepared for eventual adoption by the European Parliament and then the various member states. This progress has been hailed as a step in the right direction, with particular praise for the euro area leaders' plan to endow the European Central Bank (ECB) with supervisory powers and create new rules for managing troubled banks.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

119. Ukraine's Choice: European Association Agreement or Eurasian Union?

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Since gaining independence in December 1991, Ukraine has vacillated between the European Union and Russia for economic and political cooperation. Until recently neither had offered Ukraine much, but in the last few months, things have heated up. Ukraine's intention to sign an Association Agreement for political association and economic integration with the European Union has raised a furor in the Kremlin, which is now trying to block Ukraine from aligning itself with the European Union. Moscow has imposed trade sanctions in clear violation of its obligations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and is pursuing an intense confrontation.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, World Trade Organization, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, and Moscow

120. Towards 'EuroNest 2.0': What should the next European Parliament learn from its predecessor?

Author:: Hrant Kostanyan and Bruno Vandecasteele
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Besides the Eastern Partnership's (EaP) bilateral and multilateral framework and the Civil Society Forum, the European Union (EU) engages with the EaP countries – Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan – through multilateral parliamentary cooperation, namely within the EuroNest Parliamentary Assembly (EuroNest PA).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Armenia, and Belarus

121. Proposal for a Stabilisation Fund for the EMU

Author:: Bernard Delbecque
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This paper argues that it should be possible to complement Europe's Economic and Monetary Union with an insurance-type shock absorption mechanism to increase the resilience of member countries to economic shocks and reduce output volatility. Such a mechanism would neither require the establishment of a central authority, nor would it lead to permanent transfers between countries. For this mechanism to become a reality, however, it would be necessary to overcome certain technical problems linked to the difficulty of anticipating correctly the position of an economy in the business cycle.
Topic:: Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe

122. The EU-China partnership: 10 years on

Author:: Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: The establishment of the EU-China 'strategic partnership' on 30 October 2003 came at a time of converging priorities between the two actors. It also coincided with one of the worst crises in transatlantic relations, mainly due to disagreements over the US-led war in Iraq and the foreign policy stance of the first Bush ad¬ministration. As a result of the partnership, the then EU-15 and China adopted three initiatives which caught the attention of US policymakers.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Biosecurity
Political Geography:: China, Iraq, and Europe

123. Engaging Indonesia

Author:: David Camroux
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: The presence of Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the G20 Summit in St Petersburg in early September went virtually unnoticed by the European media. That his attendance was overlooked can be explained by immediate factors, namely the overriding importance of the Syrian conflict in the discussions among leaders, and the fact that SBY (as President Yudhoyono is commonly known) is a lame-duck president with less than a year to go before the end of his two-term limit. Lacking BRIC status (for now at least), Indonesia – unlike China, India or even Brazil – barely registers on the radar screen of public awareness in Europe. Symptomatic of this neglect is the fact that, almost four years after its signing in November 2009, two EU member state parliaments (and the European Parliament itself) have yet to ratify the EU-Indonesia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Europe, India, Brazil, Syria, and Southeast Asia

124. The added value of CSDP operations

Author:: Hadewych Hazelzet
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Over the past two years, many high-level discussions within the EU have centred around the question of the 'added value' of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). In times of fiscal austerity, member states want to make sure they invest their resources where their impact is strongest. In the current climate of financial crisis and retrenchment, there are no resources or time to waste on a 'beauty contest' between organisations or instruments. In order to prepare for the next decade of deployments, the question to ask is therefore not whether but under what conditions CSDP has brought added value, to date, in responding to given contingencies.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

125. Europe: spread (not lost) in space

Author:: Lucia Marta
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Since the launch of its two 'flagship programmes' in the late 1990s, the European Union (EU) has been increasingly involved in space activities. The earth observation programme GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security, recently renamed Copernicus) and Galileo (positioning and navigation, just like the American GPS) will soon be operational and will support a whole spectrum of European policies, from environment and transport to security and defence.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Economics, Science and Technology, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: America and Europe

126. Global commons: between cooperation and competition

Author:: Gerald Stang
Publication Date:: 04-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Rapid economic development and increasing international trade are leading to a more crowded international stage and raising new challenges in the 'global commons' – those domains that are not under the control or jurisdiction of any state but are open for use by countries, companies and individuals from around the world. Their management involves increasingly complex processes to accommodate and integrate the interests and responsibilities of states, international organisations and a host of non-state actors.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe

127. Towards a Deeper EMU: An assessment of political divisions within the EU

Author:: Juha Jokela
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Policymakers, observers and the media have referred to a vast number of divisions in crisis-torn Europe. The EU is divided between north and south or creditors and debtors. Some have emphasised the emerged division between anti-EU and pro- EU forces. Significantly, these divisions are also manifested within the eurozone, in the form of the current differences between the French and German views, and the increasing role of the populist movements in many euro countries. Yet others have highlighted the boundary between the eurozone and the rest of the EU, and suggested that the euro countries now form the core of the Union. Relatedly, some of the non-euro members are distancing themselves from the EU – most notably the UK – while many others aim to secure their influence in the Union, even if euro membership may have been put on the back burner.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

128. What if the Next Financial Crisis Hits the Banking Union? A Call for an "If All Else Fails" Clause

Author:: Stijn Verhelst
Publication Date:: 09-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This Policy Brief argues that the envisaged design of the Banking Union risks not being sufficient to deal with the next large-scale financial crisis. Therefore, an "if all else fails" clause should be approved, stating that the Banking Union members can provide joint last resort financing to deal with a future crisis. An agreement on the clause should be feasible because it is beneficial to all Member States.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

129. Don't complicate it even further: Macroeconomic Conditionality as a Substitute for new Structural Reform Contracts

Author:: Stijn Verhelst
Publication Date:: 05-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The idea of introducing contracts between Member States and the EU on structural reforms has its merits, it also has several disadvantages. Most notably, the contracts risk rendering European economic governance even more complex and cumbersome. It is therefore sensible to first try to integrate the structural reform contracts into one of the foreseen economic governance instruments.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Europe

130. Identifying Options for a New International Climate Regime Arising from the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action

Author:: Robert N. Stavins, Ottmar Edenhofer, and Christian Flachsland
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The goal of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements is to help identify and advance scientifically sound, economically rational, and politically pragmatic public policy options for addressing global climate change. Drawing upon leading thinkers in Argentina, Australia, China, Europe, India, Japan, and the United States, the Project conducts research on policy architecture, key design elements, and institutional dimensions of domestic climate policy and a post-2015 international climate policy regime. The Project is directed by Robert N. Stavins, Albert Pratt Professor of Business and Government, Harvard Kennedy School.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Europe, and India

131. The Post-2015 Agenda and the EU: Faltering in the Global Development Partnership?

Author:: Marikki Stocchetti
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The era of the Millennium Development Goals and the Millennium Declaration expires in September 2015. As the largest donor of international development aid and trader with the developing countries, the EU has a key interest in the future outcome. It has also made binding commitments to support developing countries' own efforts to fulfil the present goals, as well as to act as a global partner. In the ongoing consultation process, the UN is pushing ahead with an enabling, universal development paradigm with an enhanced development partnership that goes well beyond traditional development assistance. Whereas the EU and the UN share common ground on human rights, governance and security issues, their preliminary proposals differ significantly on the question of a global partnership. The European Commission has tabled a proposal for the Union that is still based on a very conventional donor-recipient approach, which the UN seeks to reject. The European Commission proposal is problematic because it fails to present a comprehensive analysis of the current Millennium Development Goal on a global partnership, especially regarding trade and debt issues. Instead, it focuses on developing countries' domestic policies. The EU still has time to correct this as the process unfolds. Should it fail to do so, it is highly unlikely that other donors will take up the UN proposal and push it through in the inter-governmental negotiations.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Human Rights, Foreign Aid, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe and United Nations

132. Updating The EMU: Differentiated economic integration in the European Union

Author:: Samu Kurri
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The financial and economic crisis has reinforced the two-layer economic integration structure in the EU. Many of the new rules and structures created during the crisis have focused on a solution to the euro crisis and are thus euro area-specific. There is little evidence, however, that the situation would have dramatically changed compared to the Maastricht EMU. All of the changes are still in line with the basic idea that all EU countries will join the euro when they are ready to do so. One of the key questions in the near future is likely to centre on the contours of the euro area specific decision-making, its relationship to the EU as a whole, and its institutions and procedures. Even if the Euro group remains 'formally informal', it has managed to transform itself into a de facto institution within the EU, and its role and weight is likely to increase rather than decrease.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: Europe

133. The WTO Under Pressure: Tackling the deadlock in multilateral trade

Author:: Marikki Stocchetti and Johanna Jacobsson
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Multilateral trade liberalisation is in crisis. The WTO's ambitiously named Doha Development Round has been ongoing for more than a decade. Only a few limited issues remain on the negotiation agenda. While the round is being increasingly declared dead even by WTO members themselves, the same countries are concluding deeper trade agreements than ever before. Such progress, however, takes place at the bilateral and regional level. Another major development is the appearance of deep regulatory issues on the trade agenda. The shift from customs tariffs to countries' internal policies requires a certain like-mindedness from negotiation partners and poses challenges for national decision-making policies. Developing countries have gained less from multilateral trade liberalisation than what they had hoped for. The shift towards more fragmented trade regimes makes them even more prone to remain bystanders in global trade. At the WTO's next ministerial conference in Bali, progress on agriculture, trade facilitation and the treatment of the poorest countries would give a much-needed signal that the WTO can still benefit all of its members.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

134. The Asset Quality Review and Capital Needs: Why re-capitalise banks with public money?

Author:: Daniel Gros
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: There are three aggregate numbers that describe the problem the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) is inheriting: the 130 banks under its direct supervision hold assets worth 250% of the euro area's GDP, their capital is equivalent to only 4% of their assets' value and they have made zero profits, in the aggregate, over the last four years.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: Europe

135. Net Neutrality and Mandatory Network-Sharing: How to disconnect the continent

Author:: Andrea Renda
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: A lively debate emerged on the proposed "Connected Continent" legislative package presented by the European Commission in September 2013. The package contains a proposed rule on the 'open Internet', which was heavily discussed in European Parliament hearings in early December. This commentary argues that while the proposed rule is in principle balanced and appealing, it is utterly impractical due to the enormous uncertainty that its application would entail. At the same time, the rule is very far from what neutrality proponents have argued for almost a decade: rather than the place for internet freedom, it would transform the Web into a place requiring constant micro-management and tutoring of user behavior. Both arguments lead to the conclusion that the current proposal should be at once reformed and analysed under a more holistic lens. On the one hand, Europe should launch an ambitious project for the future, converged infrastructure by mobilising resources and reforming rules to encourage investment into ubiquitous, converged, 'always on' connectivity. On the other hand, enhanced legal certainty for broadband investment could justify a more neutrality-oriented approach to traffic management practices on the Internet. The author proposes a new approach to Internet regulation which, altogether, will lead to a more balanced and sustainable model for the future, without jeopardising user freedom.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Infrastructure, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

136. Policy Lessons for Macroeconomic and Financial Crisis Management in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Rym Ayadi and Willem Pieter De Groen
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The 2007-09 global financial crisis led to a virtual collapse in economic activity and increased financial volatility worldwide. For the developing countries, the main channel of transmission has been a drop in external transactions, such as trade, financial and capital flows, and remittances. The southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC) have also faced declining economic activity, although there seems to be considerable variation in the relative magnitudes and timing of the decline. Most of the economies in the Mediterranean basin have had delayed but longer-lasting consequences as a result of the crisis, driven mostly by their endemic trade and investment ties with the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

137. REACH: A killer whale for SMEs?

Author:: Jacques Pelkmans, Ineke Gubbels-van Hal, and Lorna Schrefler
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Right from the start of the REACH debate, following the Commission proposal of October 2003, one of the more serious concerns was whether and how SMEs could cope with REACH. Indeed, there were doubts whether one of the main objectives of REACH – competitiveness of chemical and downstream companies – is consistent with the design and detailed implementation of REACH. Already in 2005, the European Parliament adopted a resolution on this aspect, insisting e.g. on lower fees for SMEs as one remedy to reduce the expected regulatory burden for smaller companies. The fear of REACH being unduly heavy and costly for SMEs has never gone away (see e.g. Gubbels Pelkmans, 2009) but merely receded in the background when the Commission and the European Chemical Agency (ECHA) were in the process of building and elaborating the REACH machinery in operational terms. This year, the problem is rearing its head again in a magnified fashion and it will not go away so easily this time.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

138. Unblocking the Lifeline of Talent

Author:: Matthias Busse and Christal Morehouse
Publication Date:: 12-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Against the background of demographic decline and growing economic competitiveness from emerging economies, this Policy Brief looks into the potential benefits of increased intra-EU labour mobility. On the basis of an examination of the 'German case' on EU labour mobility. It proposes ideas on how to better foster a European fair deal on talent, one that would benefit the EU as a whole. It concludes with a proposal on how to increase the potential benefits of the freedom of movement.
Topic:: Demographics, Economics, Migration, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Europe

139. Strong Governments, Weak Banks

Author:: Paul De Grauwe and Yuemei Ji
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: One of the more troublesome features of banks is that they still hold so little equity. In 2013 the capital and reserves of EU banks amounted to only 7.6% of total balance sheets. Well-run businesses outside the banking sector typically hold equity shares of 20%, 30% or more of their balances sheets. For good reasons; these well-run firms know that shocks can occur that could wipe out large parts of their balance sheets. Good business strategy thus leads these firms to hold sufficiently large buffers to avoid bankruptcy.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

140. The New European Framework for Managing Bank Crises

Author:: Stefano Micossi, Jacopo Carmassi, and Ginevra Bruzzone
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The European Commission proposal for a Regulation establishing a European Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) for banks is now under consideration before the European Parliament and the Council. The main principles and tools applicable for resolving a failing bank are contained in the June 2012 Commission proposal for a Directive on bank recovery and resolution (BRR), aimed at harmonising crisis management and resolution tools in EU member states, which is also under consideration by the European legislators. Any discussion of the new system must therefore be based on both proposals.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Reform
Political Geography:: Europe

141. Financial Services and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

Author:: Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: It is still an unresolved question whether a process for financial services regulatory cooperation and convergence will be included in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).From a n end-user's perspective, it could be argued that its inclusion could be an opportunity not only as regards product choice, but also to improve the consumer or investor protection regulatory environment on both sides of the Atlantic. The inclusion would also be in line with the assessments made by both the EU and the US that the G-20 agenda has been incorporated in local legislation and that both regimes are thus 'equivalent'.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

142. The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure and Germany: When is a current account surplus an 'imbalance'?

Author:: Daniel Gros and Matthias Busse
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) was designed to prevent the emergence of imbalances like the large and persistent current account deficits that occurred in Spain and Ireland. But within this mechanism, a current account surplus is also viewed as a source of concern. Indeed, last year's Alert Mechanism Report (AMR), issued by the European Commission signalled an excessive current account surplus for the Netherlands and Luxembourg, while Germany just barely scraped by with a 5.9% surplus, marginally evading the 6% threshold (over a 3-year average). With the most recent report, however, Germany's status has changed. Along with the Netherlands and Luxembourg, it too has now been singled out as a euro-area country with a surplus above the upper threshold.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

143. Much ado about nothing? State-controlled entities and the change in German investment law

Author:: Thomas Jost
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The rise of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) -- together state-controlled entities (SCEs) -- has led to concerns that SCEs could threaten national security by following political rather than mere commercial goals with respect to their foreign direct investment (FDI). While developed countries acknowledged that the rise of SCEs should not lead to new barriers to FDI, several have changed their legislation to expand government oversight of FDI flows. In 2009, Germany also tightened its foreign investment regime. What are the first experiences with this change in German investment law?
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Law
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

144. Poland: Industry Forecast

Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: GDP is expected to rise by 2.6% in 2012 and expand by 2.7% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, GDP is predicted to grow on average by 3.2% a year. Manufacturing output growth is forecast to be higher than GDP growth over the next decade. Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 2.1% in 2012 and expand by 5.3% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, manufacturing output is expected to grow on average by 4.3% a year. As a result, the share of manufacturing output in GDP is projected to rise from 25.4% in 2011 to 27.2% by 2016 and increase to 28.7% by 2021. Over the same period, the share of service sector output in GDP is expected to decline from 58.5% in 2011 to 57.2% in 2016 and fall to 56.2% in 2021.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

145. Country Economic Forecasts: Germany

Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The German economy is clearly slowing in the face of the latest phase of the Eurozone crisis. We expect the impact of the crisis on business investment and exports to cause the economy to contract in Q2 before recovering slowly in H2. As a result, GDP growth is now forecast to slow to 0.7% in 2012 overall from 3.1% last year, before accelerating to 1.4% in 2013.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

146. Commission v. Gazprom: The antitrust clash of the decade?

Author:: Alan Riley
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: It may well be that the Gazprom antitrust case launched by DG Competition on September 4th will turn out to be the landmark antitrust case of this decade, as Microsoft was of the last decade. The argument of this paper is that, for a host of political and economic reasons, this case is likely to be hard fought by both sides to a final prohibition decision and then onwards into the EU courts. In the process, the European gas market and the powers of DG Competition in the energy field are likely to be transformed.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Natural Resources, and Law
Political Geography:: Europe

147. After austerity: futures for Europe's defence industry

Author:: Andrea Gilli
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: In October 2012, the merger between BAE Systems (GB) and EADS (France, Germany and Spain), two of the biggest defence contractors in the world, failed. Despite this setback, further consolidation within the European defence industry is likely to occur in the near future. Because of the eurozone crisis, in recent years EU countries have significantly curtailed their public expenditure, defence included. This has important implications for the structure of the European defence industrial base. Specifically, defence companies are dependent on public defence expenditure. When defence spending declines, industrial overcapacity results. This, in turn, calls for restructuring and consolidation. Inevitably, EU countries will have to go down this road. However, given their ongoing concerns regarding sovereignty, technology and jobs, there are good reasons to think that they will promote the consolidation of their defence industry through a mix of Europe, NATO, extra-EU and purely national solutions.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Germany, and Spain

148. Bringing Stability to Europe: Why Europe needs a banking union

Author:: Erik Jones
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The European sovereign debt crisis is the result of capital flows across the single market. The danger that such capital flows could unleash market speculation was known from the start; indeed, the single currency was created to remove the threat of exchange rate instability. The problem is that the architects of the single currency did not consider the impact of capital market integration on the banking sector or on the relationship between banks and national governments. Once markets lost confidence in the security of their cross-border investments, investors began to pull back their capital and the internal market for financial services started to disintegrate. The creation of a banking union is part of the solution. However, the euro area also needs a common 'risk-free' asset to use as a safe haven in times of crisis.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

149. Updated Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Author:: William R. Cline and John Williamson
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In 2008 we introduced a semiannual series providing estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates, or FEERs (Cline and Williamson 2008a). The economic concept of FEERs was first set forth by Williamson (1983). An operational method for arriving at multilaterally consistent estimates of FEERs was developed by Cline (2008) and has been applied over the past five years in this series of estimates. This issue marks the valedictory round of the series for Williamson, who is retiring.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Lisbon

150. Hyperinflations Are Rare, but a Breakup of the Euro Area Could Prompt One

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Hyperinflation is one of the most misused words in the English language. Two years ago, I heard a prominent American investor say that we were about to get hyperinflation, “not 15 percent a year as under Jimmy Carter but perhaps 5 percent a year.” Hyperinflation is usually 1,000 percent or more a year. The standard definition by Philip Cagan (1956) is that hyperinflation starts when inflation reaches 50 percent a month, and then the economy is in hyperinflation for one year until monthly inflation falls and stays below 50 percent.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

151. Why a Breakup of the Euro Area Must Be Avoided: Lessons from Previous Breakups

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: One of the big questions of our time is whether the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) will survive. Too often, analysts discuss a possible departure of one or several countries from the euro area as little more than a devaluation, but I argue that any country's exit from the euro area would be a far greater event with potentially odious consequences. Exit from the EMU cannot be selective: It is either none or all.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

152. Combating Widespread Currency Manipulation

Author:: Joseph E. Gagnon Gagnon
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Widespread currency manipulation, mainly in developing and newly industrialized economies, is the most important development of the past decade in international financial markets. In an attempt to hold down the values of their currencies, governments are distorting capital flows by around $1.5 trillion per year. The result is a net drain on aggregate demand in the United States and the euro area by an amount roughly equal to the large output gaps in the United States and the euro area. In other words, millions more Americans and Europeans would be employed if other countries did not manipulate their currencies and instead achieved sustainable growth through higher domestic demand.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States, America, and Europe

153. The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis: An Update

Author:: C. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Getting the diagnosis right is a prerequisite for understanding the euro area predicament and evaluating key decisions taken since early 2010. As we laid out in Bergsten and Kirkegaard (2012), while the euro area faces multiple overlapping and mutually reinforcing elements of fiscal (Greece), banking (Ireland/Spain), and competitiveness (Southern periphery) crises, it is first and foremost facing a crisis of institutional design. The common currency as designed in the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 is a half-built house without the critical components of banking and fiscal union necessary to sustain it through the type of crushing economic and financial down- turn witnessed since October 2008.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

154. Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision: Coordination instead of separation

Author:: Daniel Gros and Thorsten Beck
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The June 2012 European Council decided that the legal basis for the 'Single Supervisory Mechanism' should be Article 127(6) of the Treaty, and that the SSM should 'involve' the ECB. This implies only that supervision should be concentrated within the ECB. In the policy discussion it is, however, generally taken for granted that there should be 'Chinese walls' between the supervisory and monetary policy arms of the ECB. The current legislative proposal is explicit on this account.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:: China and Europe

155. Europe's Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Long Journey Towards Banking Union

Author:: Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:: 12-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: On June 29, 2012, the heads of state and government of the 17 euro area countries issued a landmark statement that started with the sentences “We affirm that it is imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns. The Commission will present Proposals on the basis of Article 127(6) for a single supervisory mechanism shortly. We ask the Council to consider these Proposals as a matter of urgency by the end of 2012. When an effective single supervisory mechanism is established, involving the ECB [European Central Bank] for banks in the euro area the ESM [European Stability Mechanism] could, following a regular decision, have the possibility to recapitalize banks directly” (Euro Area Summit Statement 2012). This statement was received by the investor community and the European public as marking the initial step towards a European banking union, i.e., a shift of the key instruments of banking policy from the national to the European level to enable the formation and maintenance of an integrated European banking system.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

156. Southern Europe Ignores Lessons from Latvia at Its Peril

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: In the current financial crisis plaguing Europe, Latvia stands out for resolving its financial problems quickly and resolutely. After contracting 24 percent in 2008 and 2009, it grew at the rate of 5.5 percent in 2011. The speed and determination. with which the government carried out austerity measures in 2009 and restored confidence after suffering the worst output decline is a crucial lesson for the ailing South European countries—Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Many policy observers and economists have dismissed Latvia's crisis resolution as irrelevant to the situation in Southern Europe. The Latvian orange, they say, cannot be compared with the South European apples. I argue otherwise.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, and Latvia

157. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: Policy Implications

Author:: Peter A. Petri
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), currently at an advanced stage of negotiation, began as a small agreement but now has big implications. The TPP would strengthen ties between Asia and the Americas, create a new template for the conduct of international trade and investment, and potentially lead to a comprehensive free trade area (FTA) in the Asia-Pacific. It could generate large benefits—greater than those expected from the World Trade Organization's (WTO) global Doha Development Agenda. This Policy Brief reports on our ongoing quantitative assessment (with FanZhai) of the TPP and other Asia-Pacific integration efforts.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: America, Europe, Israel, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

158. Baltic Energy Security: Building a European Energy Future

Author:: Mihaela Carstei
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Historically, energy security has played a central role in shaping the national security strategy and interests of the Baltic states. The diverse challenges that exist in the region make it necessary to focus on identifying areas of cooperation between the countries as they pursue diversified oil and gas supplies.This is crucial to achieve a regional approach to the European Union's common energy security goals.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe

159. France: Back to the Future

Author:: Nicholas Dungan
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Vive la différence! or Plus ça change, plus c'est la môme chose? Which French expression best describes François Hollande and his socialist majority, elected in May and June to govern France for the next five years? The correct answer is: both.
Topic:: Economics, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Europe and France

160. The European Union and Brazil as Privileged Partners? Difficult Path to an Authentic Strategic Partnership

Author:: Bartlomiej Znojek
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Dilma Rousseff took over the presidency of Brazil a year ago. Her government's policy has been marked by a general continuity of the directions set during President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's tenure (2003–2010). The largest Latin American country keeps growing economically and improving in social indicators, and at the same time is gaining ground as an increasingly influential global player.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: America, Europe, and Brazil

161. The Coming Resolution of the European Crisis

Author:: C. Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Doom and gloom about the euro abounds. An increasing number of commentators and economists, including here at the Peterson Institute, have begun to question whether the common currency can survive.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

162. Constructing a German Europe? Germany's Europe Debate Revisited

Author:: Timo Behr and Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Germany's ambiguous role during the eurozone crisis has stoked fears that a more self-confident and dynamic Germany is threatening the political independence and economic well-being of its neighbours and will lead to a “German Europe”. German weakness, not power, is the main challenge to EU integration. In order to build a supranational EU and a “European Germany”, Germans will have to overhaul their Cold War institutions and traditions that have become a brake on EU integration. Germany's political elite continues to favour a federalist vision for the EU, but faces a somewhat more sceptical public as well as strong domestic veto players, such as the Federal Constitutional Court, which limit their pro-integrationist tendency. While Germany continues to support the use of the “Community method”, Angela Merkel has increasingly resorted to the “Union method” that places function over form and prioritizes pragmatic problem-solving to address the current crisis. Germany's uncompromising attitude towards the eurozone crisis and its sometimes erratic foreign policy are the product of its deeply embedded stability culture and instinctive pacifism, rather than a sign of growing global ambitions. European partners will have to help Germany in its indispensable leadership role by jointly formulating a vision for the European integration project and by assisting Germany in adapting its political institutions and culture.
Topic:: Cold War, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

163. Fit for Purpose? The European External Action Service one year on

Author:: Steven Blockmans, Natalia Alonso, and Tidhar Wald
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The first anniversary of the European External Action Service (EEAS) finds the European Union (EU) in the midst of an economic, financial, and identity crisis that has aggravated the ongoing decline in Europe's stature on the global scene as new political and economic actors emerge. The new diplomatic service provides the EU with an opportunity to address its shortcomings in foreign policy by bringing greater coherence to external policy making; by enhancing consistency across EU instruments; and by adopting a more comprehensive and strategic approach to global challenges.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

164. Stepping up Growth Policies

Author:: Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The eurozone is in recession and will show negative growth in 2012; GDP will fall sharply in Greece and Portugal, and there is substantial risk that Spain and Italy will follow suit (the Commission's recent forecasts seem overly optimistic and complacent; the IMF is more downbeat). But fiscal policies are uniformly restrictive throughout the eurozone and much of the Union, and the hopes that fiscal consolidation could spur growth by improving household and business confidence are not materialising. In reality, domestic demand has been hit too hard by fiscal consolidation, and investment throughout the Union remains well below pre- crisis levels. Credit is tight due to the deteriorating quality of borrowers and the ongoing deleveraging in banking.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

165. How Verbal Threats to Close Oil Transit Chokepoints Lead to Military Conflict

Author:: John Bowlus
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: On December 26, 2011, in response to US, European, and potential Asian sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the government in Tehran issued a threat to “cut off the Strait of Hormuz.” The US Defense Department responded that any blockade of the strait would be met with force. On first read, it is easy to dismiss such saber rattling as another chapter in the new Cold War in the Middle East between Iran and its allies – including Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah – and the US, Israel, and the Sunni Gulf States, mostly notably Saudi Arabia. Iran has since backed away from its threat, but the event still carries importance because it is unclear how both the US and Iran will continue to respond, particularly as the diplomatic and economic pressures grow more acute while Iran's controversial nuclear program advances. Could such a verbal threat by Iran to cut off the Strait of Hormuzignite a military conflagration in the region? The relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions is well established; however, policymakers and analysts tend to focus on the incidents in which military conflict causes disruptions in oil supplies and sharp increases in prices. The first and most obvious example of this dynamic was the Arab-Israeli War of 1973. The subsequent oil embargo by the Arab members of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) against the United States and the Netherlands for their support of Israel caused prices to soar as oil-consuming nations endured supply shortages. The Iranian Revolution from 1978 to 1979 was another event that curtailed Western nations' access to oil and caused prices to spike. When thinking about the relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions, however, policymakers and analysts should also recognize that the competition over oil – and even verbal threats to disrupt oil supplies by closing oil transit chokepoints – have either led directly to military conflict or have provided a useful cover under which countries have initiated military conflict. By examining past episodes when countries issued threats to close oil transit chokepoints, this Policy Brief helps illuminate the dangers associated with the current crisis over the Strait of Hormuz.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia

166. The (lack of) women arbitrators in investment treaty arbitration

Author:: Gus Van Harten
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Investment arbitration has a remarkably poor record on representation of women. This calls for reform of the appointments process for arbitrators, who make important policy choices in the context of global governance.
Topic:: Economics, Gender Issues, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Europe

167. Fighting climate change: A structural shift towards renewable energies requires concerted policy action

Author:: Patrick Matschoss
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Renewable energies will be the major contributor to any future low carbon energy system and the share may be as high as nearly 80% of the world's energy supply by 2050. Renewable energies have vast potential but require a set of coherent policies to reach necessary deployment rates, because the market place neither accounts sufficiently for their climate change-related and wider benefits nor for the benefits of technological learning, making them appear less competitive than they really are. Renewable energies can be integrated in all supply systems and end-use sectors but at some point they will require investment and change. In electricity, an enhanced Pan-European network infrastructure (smart grid) would smooth variability and the remaining non-renewable generation capacity would be highly flexible. Energy security would be enhanced by greater efficiency and a broader and less import-dependent energy portfolio with less vulnerability to energy price volatility. Network stability needs to be addressed but some renewable energies are fully dispatchable and part of the solution. The transition to renewable energies is possible and beneficial, not only due to climate change but also because it serves energy security concerns and necessary infrastructure improvements. The EU's proposed long-term strategy concerning emission reductions and competitiveness, as well as the related legislation, is moving in the right direction and it is up to the member states to pick this up and push it forward.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe

168. Interest Rate Shock and Sustainability of Italy's Sovereign Debt

Author:: William R. Cline
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Contagion from Greece, together with domestic political uncertainty in Italy, caused interest rates on Italian sovereign debt to spike in the second half of 2011. As shown in figure 1, the risk spread above German bunds for 10-year Italian government bonds rose from 200 basis points in early July 2011, to a range of 300 to 400 basis points after the July 21 Greek package with its new emphasis on private sector involvement. There was a second surge to the 400 to 500 basis point range in November through January, following the October 27 Greek package that insisted on a 50 percent reduction in private sector claims.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Italy

169. Renewables and the EU Internal Electricity Market: The case for an arranged marriage

Author:: Jonas Teusch
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: This Policy Brief argues that pursuing the renewables objective could contribute to the completion of the internal electricity market, help to overcome opposition to transmission projects and decrease the market power of incumbents. Conversely, an integrated internal electricity market means less price volatility in specific regional markets, which allows for more efficient deployment and grid integration of renewables.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, and Markets
Political Geography:: Europe

170. U.S.-Turkey Relations: A New Partnership

Author:: Stephen J. Hadley, Steven A. Cook, and Madeleine Albright
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: Among the most important developments in international affairs of the past decade is the emergence of Turkey as a rising regional and global power. Turkey has long been an important country as a stalwart member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an aspirant to European Union (EU) membership, and an important link between the West and the East. Yet the changes in Turkey over the past decade have been so dramatic—with far-reaching political and economic reforms, significant social reforms, and an active foreign policy—that the country is virtually unrecognizable to longtime Turkey watchers. Today Turkey is more democratic, prosperous, and politically influential than it was five, ten, and fifteen years ago.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Democratization, Economics, Human Rights, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Middle East

171. In Search of Symmetry in the Eurozone

Author:: Paul De Grauwe
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: One of the major problems of the eurozone is the divergence of the competitive positions that have built up since the early 2000s. This divergence has led to major imbalances in the eurozone where the countries that have seen their competitive positions deteriorate (mainly the so - called ' PIIGS ' – Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain ) have accumulated large current account deficits and thus external indebtedness, matched by current account surpluses of the countries that have improved their competitive positions (mainly Germany).
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Regional Cooperation, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Ireland

172. Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area: Symptom or cause of the crisis?

Author:: Daniel Gros
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Lax financial conditions can foster credit booms. The global credit boom of the last decade led to large capital flows across the world, including large movements of resources from the Northern countries of the euro area towards the Southern part. Since the start of the crisis and more markedly after 2009, these flows have suddenly stopped, creating severe adjustment pressures. This paper argues that, at this point, the common monetary policy can only try to mitigate the unavoidable adjustment by maintaining overall financial stability. The challenge is to strike a delicate balance between providing liquidity for solvent institutions while keeping the overall pressure on for a rapid correction of the imbalances.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

173. The Spanish Hangover

Author:: Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Spain faces high unemployment and slow growth. This paper focuses on an important source of those problems, namely its housing market. While some adjustment has occurred since Spain's housing bubble burst in 2008, the authors find that house prices and construction need to decrease more to slow Spain's unsustainable accumulation of foreign debt.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

174. US Agricultural Exports to ASEAN Grow - But Face Competition

Author:: Michael McConnell
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: ASEAN countries have long been an important international market for US agricultural exports. The United States, in 2011, exported almost $9.6 billion of agricultural products to ASEAN, making it the sixth-largest export destination for US farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses—behind Japan ($14 billion) and just behind the European Union ($9.6 billion), but well ahead of South Korea ($7 billion). Moreover, the value of agricultural trade between the United States and ASEAN almost doubled between 2007 and 2011, with the top four ASEAN markets in 2011 for the United States being Indonesia ($2.8 billion), the Philippines ($2.1 billion), Vietnam ($1.7 billion), and Thailand ($1.3 billion). With a population of 614 million and strong economic growth, it is expected that ASEAN will continue to be an important market for US agricultural products. However, the United States is likely to face increasing competition, particularly from China, Australia, and New Zealand, all of which have free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASEAN.
Topic:: Agriculture, Demographics, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Food
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, East Asia, South Korea, Australia, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand

175. An alienated partnership: German-Russian relations after Putin's return

Author:: Stefan Meister
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The return of Vladimir Putin as Russia's president and the probable end of Dmitri Medvedev's modernization project will increase the alienation within German-Russian relations. Germany's modernization partnership with Russia has produced limited results because the two sides have different views on the cooperation. While the German side wants to develop common projects of good practice which will modernize the Russian economy and politics, the Russian side is interested in technology transfer. The interest in and knowledge of Russia among German decision-makers is decreasing. Germany lacks vision and concepts on how to influence developments in Russia. This is also due to the resistance of the current Russian elite towards implementing political reforms. As a result, Russia is losing its most important advocate in the EU (also regarding energy policy). This will have a negative impact on EU-Russia relations because the EU lacks leadership on Russia. Ongoing changes in Russian society, which challenge the Putin system, will present an opportunity to find new allies in Russia for cooperation and modernization, which may increase Germany's interest in its large neighbour. But this will call for a more balanced approach between the Russian elites and society in Germany's Russia policy.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Social Stratification, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Germany

176. On the road to a true Economic and Monetary Union? The challenges of fiscal federalism and democratic legitimacy

Author:: Teija Tiilikainen
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Lessons learned from the current economic and financial crisis pose great challenges for the EU concerning the future development of the EMU. Through the recent changes the limits of a mere coordination of economic policies have been reached and a debate about turning the system into a true Economic and Monetary Union must be launched. A further strengthening of the EU's power in economic and fiscal policies would require a clearer move in the direction of fiscal federalism, that is, a more balanced relationship between the Union's budget and those of the member states. It would also require the finalization of the Union's democratic system along the lines of a federal political order. The divided character of the currency union presents significant difficulties for its further deepening and democratization.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

177. The corporate benefits of the euro: Finnish companies cannot live without a common currency

Author:: Timo korkeamäki
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The costs of euro membership have been a topic of lively political debate in recent years, and they have received ample media attention. In contrast, numerical estimates on the benefits of the euro have been practically non-existent. While the corporate benefits of the euro have been widely documented in the academic literature, the practical value of those publications has suffered from their technical complexity. Several experts have linked the fast growth of corporate bond markets in Europe since 1999 to the introduction of the euro. With growing arm's length credit markets in Europe, companies' access to financing has improved significantly. Companies from countries with small and unstable legacy currencies, such as Finland, have benefited comparably more from the widened financial markets. The cost savings due to the lowered cost of debt are non-trivial. For a set of large Finnish companies alone, the narrowing spread between their interest expenses and those of their German counterparties has resulted in after-tax cost savings of over €400 million each year. Sweden, Norway, and Denmark may have received some free-rider benefits while staying outside the currency union. However, it is difficult to estimate whether such benefits would have been obtainable had Finland chosen to keep its own currency. Reductions in the cost of financing should increase companies' ability to invest, and thus these savings are likely to have multiplicative effects on the economy for years to come.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

178. A rocky road towards Europe: The prospects for the EU's Eastern Partnership Association Agreements

Author:: Kristi Raik
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The EU has a strategic goal to build political association and economic integration with the six countries included in its Eastern Partnership policy. To reach this goal, it has invented a new model of association agreement that includes deep and comprehensive free trade. At best, three out of six Eastern partners are likely to sign the agreements within the next couple of years.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe

179. Ripe and ready for Rio+20? The UN conference on sustainable development and the European Union

Author:: Marikki Stocchetti
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The UN Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) marks a historic opportunity to address unsustainable trends in economic, social and environmental development multilaterally. Still, on the eve of Rio+20, the international community lacks consensus and leadership. The European Union has taken a very proactive and constructive role in the preparations for Rio+20. However, the EU's commitment to the sustainable development agenda is not shared equally across its policies or member states. This weakens the EU's strategic position in the negotiations. Disagreements between Rio+20 parties cut across all the main items on the agenda. In particular, the topic of the “Green Economy” brings old clashes between developing economies and post-industrialized countries back to the fore. The key question relates, on the one hand, to the right to determine development strategies, and on the other hand, to the division of responsibilities between countries. On a more optimistic note, the need for institutional reform and joint sustainable development objectives has been widely acknowledged. In addition, much progress can still be made in the 15 thematic areas of sustainable development. This may compensate for the lack of unanimity on grand paradigms. It is of utmost importance for a successful outcome that the Union works in unison, with clear negotiation mandates, and coordinates its views effectively throughout the process. Success at Rio+20 may also help to increase the EU's own coherence with regard to sustainable development in the future.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Environment
Political Geography:: Europe

180. EIU: Global outlook summary

Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: The global economy remains in precarious shape. Europe's debt crisis rages on, and although the euro appears to have survived its most recent test in the form of the Greek election on June 17th, austerity and financial-market uncertainty are depressing economic activity in Europe and, by extension, in much of the rest of the world. The Economist Intelligence Unit continues to expect global GDP growth to slow in 2012, and while our forecasts for the G3 economies—the US, euro zone and China—are essentially unchanged this month, we have cut our projections for Brazil and India.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, India, and Brazil

181. Implementing Basel III in Europe: Diagnosis and avenues for improvement

Author:: Rym Ayadi, Emrah Arbak, and Willem Pieter De Groen
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Adopted by the European Commission in July 2011, the proposed Capital Requirements Directive and Regulation (CRD IV-CRR) translate into EU law the Basel III standards adopted by the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS). Among other things, the proposal increases the quality and quantity of the minimum capital; introduces new rules on liquidity, leverage ratios, counter-cyclical buffers and systemically important financial institutions; and amends the definitions of counterparty credit risk and rules for the banking book. The rules complement the earlier amendments that strengthened the capital and disclosure requirements for the trading book and resecuritization instruments as well as requirements to ensure that remuneration policies do not lead to excessive risk-taking.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

182. An Agenda for the European Council: Feasible steps to bring the eurozone back from the precipice

Author:: Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Once again the European Council will meet in an emergency session at the end of June, with the eurozone economy in recession and actually plummeting in its Southern periphery. Further doubts are also growing on the sustainability of sovereign debts due to the vicious spiral of deteriorating bank balance sheets, ballooning potential liabilities from banking rescues and widening spreads on government borrowings. The sovereign debt crisis in the periphery has now turned into a fully fledged banking crisis that threatens to spread from Greece to Spain and tomorrow, who knows, to Italy, France and even Germany itself.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

183. Europe's Recurrent Employment Problems

Author:: Daniel Gros
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: As the euro crisis continues and unemployment climbs to new heights, the clamour calling for Europe to 'do something' is getting louder. But the real question is: can Europe, or rather the EU, do 'something' that would actually have a real impact on unemployment? In other words, does a European plan or employment strategy make sense?
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

184. The Euro Crisis: Implications for the Internal Market and Harmonisation of Corporate Taxes

Author:: H. Onno Ruding
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The so-called 'euro crisis' is of the utmost economic, financial and political importance for all member countries of the euro area and for the future of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In my view, however, it is not primarily a euro crisis in the strict sense. The euro itself is of course involved, but, as a currency with a rather stable exchange rate vis-à-vis other currencies and with a major role in global financial markets, it is not at the heart of the crisis. Rather the crisis is a matter of the serious imbalances in the economies of several euro-area countries, particularly their budget deficits and sovereign debts and as well as their lack of competitiveness and balance-of-payments deficits.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

185. Europeanising labour migration policies and pursuing national objectives

Author:: Katrine Borg Albertsen
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The EU Blue Card scheme offers skilled labour migrants access to, and onward mobility within, the EU labour market. Due to its justice and home affairs opt-out Denmark is cut off from participation, and instead pursues national schemes for high-skilled labour migration. It is in the best interests of both Denmark and the EU to pursue fully integrated strategic goals aimed at producing a competitive joint policy on economic migration.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, Migration, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Europe

186. Prospects for Global Growth in 2012

Author:: Onur Bayramoğlu
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: The current concern among many is that what we are faced today is not a usual crisis that is part of the economic cycle, but an era of great stagnation with low growth and high unemployment, not witnessed since the Great Depression of the 1930's. One wonders which country will drive global growth while major actors such as the European Union are now financial casinos, the United States is continuously losing its dynamism, Japan is struggling under demographical problems, and the emerging markets are still too small and volatile. Once again, policy makers acknowledge that the problems of growth are global and systematic; such that if one faces an issue, all of them get contaminated. However, they still seek for solutions in mercantilist national policies.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

187. A Sovereign Wealth Fund to Lift Germany's Curse of Excess Savings

Author:: Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: For most of the time since the early 1950s, national savings in Germany have tended to exceed national investment, resulting in a current account surplus. Most of these excess savings have been intermediated by the domestic banking system, which has had difficulties investing these German surpluses abroad given that it is prohibited by law from taking any exchange rate risk. This tended to keep the surplus within limits most of the time (less than 1- 2% of GDP). With the advent of the euro, however, German surpluses could become much larger and seem now to have become structurally engrained at 6% of GDP, or over one-quarter of savings. Since the start of the euro crisis, German private savers have repatriated their investments – effectively unloading their exposure onto the public sector as German banks have deposited hundreds of billions of euro at the Bundesbank. These funds are being lent by the ECB to banks in the euro area periphery (at 75 bps) – ensuring effectively a negative real return.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Sovereign Wealth Funds
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

188. Can Italy and Spain survive rates of 6-7%?

Author:: Daniel Gros
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The sentiment that the euro is now in real danger is based in large part on the widespread conviction that interest rates of 6-7% are simply unsustainable for both Italy and Spain., After taking a closer look at the fundamentals, however, Daniel Gros concludes in this new Policy Brief that both countries should be able to live with this level of interest rates for quite some time, but only if they mobilize domestic savings, which remain strong in both countries. For Spain, some debt/equity swaps are also needed.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Spain, and Italy

189. Unholy compromise in the eurozone and how to right it

Author:: Stefano Micossi
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Two years after the first Greek rescue in May 2010, crisis management in the eurozone has still failed to restore confidence. A vivid picture of the situation can be found in Figure 1: the constellation of spreads on ten-year sovereign debts over the Bund in the eurozone is wider than it was before monetary union, as though financial markets had already discounted its breakdown. Temporary respites, notably in the early part of 2012, have not interrupted the trend of increasing divergence that risks undermining the credibility of adjustment efforts under way.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

190. Pre-empting Technical Barriers in the Single Market

Author:: Jacques Pelkmans and Anabela Correia de Brito
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Effective enforcement and compliance with EU law is not just a legal necessity, it is also of economic interest since the potential of the Single Market will be fully exploited. Enforcement barriers generate unjustified costs and hindrances or uncertainty for cross-border business and might deprive consumers from receiving the full benefit of greater choice and/or cheaper offers.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Law
Political Geography:: Europe

191. Central Banks in Times of Crisis: The FED vs. the ECB

Author:: Daniel Gros, Cinzia Alcidi, and Alessandro Giovannini
Publication Date:: 07-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Different economic and financial structures require different crisis responses. Different crises also require different tools and resources. The first 'stage' of the financial crisis (2007-09) was similar on both sides of the Atlantic, and the response was also quite similar. The second stage of the crisis is unique to the euro area. Increasing financial disintegration within the region has forced the ECB to become the central counterparty for the entire cross-border banking market and to intervene in the sovereign bond market of some stressed countries. The actions undertaken by the European Central Bank (ECB), however, have not always represented the best response, in terms of effectiveness, consistency and transparency. This is especially true for the Securities Markets Programme (SMP): by de facto imposing its absolute seniority during the Greek PSI (private sector involvement), the ECB has probably killed its future effectiveness.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

192. Money and power: EU budget negotiations in a time of austerity

Author:: Sara Hagemann
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The ongoing negotiation of the EU's multi-annual budget is heavily constrained by how the decision process takes place. Governments focus on narrowly defined national interests, rather than on securing a better budget for Europe. While the budget is small in size, it could be used as a powerful political tool for much needed economic growth policies on a larger scale.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

193. Flexicurity in Italy – how far is Rome from Copenhagen?

Author:: Ilaria Maselli
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The recently approved labour market reform in italy is clearly inspired by the danish flexicurity model. However, despite the noble intention and some improvements, the reform is failing to bring the long- hoped-for change, especially regarding the dualisation of the labour market and the universalisation of welfare provision.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

194. Unleashing Competition in EU Business Services

Author:: Henk L.M. Kox
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: In most EU member states, the business services industry has booked no productivity growth during the last two decades. The industry's performance in the other member states was weaker than that of its US counterparts. Exploring what may be causing this productivity stagnation, this policy brief reports that weak competition has contributed to the continuing malaise in European business services. The study analyzed the persistence (over time) of firm-level inefficiencies. The evidence further suggests that competition between small firms and large firms in business services is weak. Markets for business services work best in countries with flexible regulation on employment change and with low regulatory costs for firms that start up or close down a business. Countries that are more open to foreign competition perform better in terms of competitive selection and productivity.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

195. Banking Union: A federal model for the European Union with prompt corrective action

Author:: Stefano Micossi, Jacopo Carmassi, and Carmine Di Noia
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The European Commission has published its proposals for the transfer of supervisory responsibilities to the European Central Bank (ECB), under Article 127(6) of the TFEU, providing a comprehensive and courageous 'first step' towards a European banking Union, the other steps being European deposit insurance and resolution procedures. However, on a number of issues the Commission's chosen path raises questions that should be brought out in the open and fully recognized before final deliberation by the Council.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: Europe

196. The EU's Promotion of External Democracy: In search of the plot

Author:: Anne Wetzel and Jan Orbie
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: While the EU has recently upgraded its external democracy promotion policies through a set of initiatives such as the “Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity with the Southern Mediterranean”, the proposal for a “European Endowment of Democracy”, and the “Strategic Framework and Action Plan on Human Rights and Democracy”, there is one challenge that it has not yet addressed: what exactly does it aim to support?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, and Sociology
Political Geography:: Europe

197. A European Deposit Insurance and Resolution Fund - An Update

Author:: Daniel Gros and Dirk Schoenmaker
Publication Date:: 09-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Cross-border banking is currently not stable in Europe. Cross-border banks need a European safety net. Moreover, a truly integrated European level banking system may help to break the diabolical loop between the solvency of the domestic banking system and the fiscal standing of the national sovereign.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: Europe

198. Europe on the Brink

Author:: Simon Johnson and Peter Boone
Publication Date:: 07-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Attempts to resolve the problems in Europe are failing, and the crisis is spreading from Greece, Ireland, and Portugal to larger nations. Europe's financial system relies on moral hazard, i.e., a “no defaults” policy, to attract the funding needed to roll over large amounts of short–term bank and sovereign debt. Now that politicians in creditor nations are calling for private sector burden sharing, investors are demanding higher interest rates to hold these debts. But higher rates may tip banks and nations toward bankruptcy. Europe's banks and financial system are highly integrated across countries. Rising expectations of default in some countries could lead to large-scale capital flight into “safe” countries. This shift will raise concerns regarding solvency and liquidity of many financial institutions. The payments system of the euro area is serving as an opaque bailout mechanism that is currently preventing the euro area from falling apart at this time. If the number of nations in trouble spreads beyond Greece, Ireland, and Portugal, this bailout system will be stressed because of the potential size of accumulated funding. The European Central Bank (ECB) could soon see a vocal debate between inflationist and hawkish (anti–inflation) members. Inflationists will call for large–scale interventions, including bond buybacks and emergency loans, while the hawks will attempt to close loopholes in the payments system that effectively permit each troubled nation to create money needed to finance capital flight and budget deficits. At this stage in the debate, we see little chance that Europe can avoid ending the “moral hazard” regime, in which case it needs to plan for widespread sovereign and bank debt restructurings.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, and Ireland

199. Turkey's 2000/1 Banking Crisis: A Case Study for the Transformation of the Greek Finance?

Author:: Onur Bayramoğlu
Publication Date:: 08-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: On April 2010, recently after the eruption of the Greek crisis, an unexpected hand from Turkey reached to Greece. Proud with his country's last decade growth figures, Turkey's then Vice Prime Minister, Ali Babacan, paid a visit to Greece in order to share his country's reform period after its 2000/1 crisis, arguing that it could also be a case study for Greece. In this brief, I analyzed Greek and Turkish financial crises. Although it is a mere fact that the structural problems in Greek economy complicate the reform period in Greece, there are certain lessons that Greeks can learn from the Turkish experience. As Turks did after 2001, they should see the crisis as an opportunity to overcome the long time problems . In this regard, Greeks first and foremost should establish consensus among themselves, signaling to the markets that they are ready to face the burdens of the reform period.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Greece

200. Partial sovereign bond insurance by the eurozone: A more efficient alternative to blue (Euro-)bonds

Author:: Hans-Joachim Dübel
Publication Date:: 08-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: 'Blue' or Eurobonds guaranteed via joint and several liability by the eurozone member states have been proposed as an important tool to stabilise and structure the eurozone sovereign bond markets. But in this new Policy Brief, Hans-Joachim Dübel argues the case for a partial insurance of sovereign bonds by the European Stability Mechanism. Hans-Joachim Dübel is an independent financial sector consultant based in Berlin and founder of Finpolconsult.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Berlin

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS