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52. Inside North Korea: A Joint U.S.-Chinese Dialogue
- Author:
- Bonnie Glaser and Chietigj Bajpaee
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- To better understand perspectives in the United States and China on internal developments in North Korea, the U.S. Institute of Peace and the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in partnership with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, convened a daylong conference on December 5, 2006. The conference took place on the eve of the resumption of the Six-Party Talks in Beijing, which subsequently ended without tangible progress. The participants discussed North Korea's economy, the role of external actors on North Korea's decision-making, and Chinese and U.S. visions for the future of the Korean Peninsula. The seminar also included a simulation based on a scenario of an explosion at Yongbyon that creates a radioactive plume that moves across the Sea of Japan.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, and North Korea
53. China: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In December 2004 China's top political leadership agreed to fundamentally alter the country's growth strategy. In place of investment and export-led development, they endorsed transitioning to a growth path that relied more on expanding domestic consumption. Since 2004, China's top leadership, most notably Premier Wen Jiaobao in his speech to the National People's Congress in the spring of 2006, has reiterated the goal of strengthening domestic consumption as a major source of economic growth. This policy brief examines the reasons underlying the leadership decision, the implications of this transition for the United States and the global economy, and the steps that have been taken to embark on the new growth path.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
54. China Succeeding Beyond Expectations
- Author:
- Albert Kiedel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- What are the implications if China sustains nine-percent growth through 2010? This is the basic question posed by conference organizers. The relevant time frame is what matters most. If China merely maintains nine-percent growth until the year 2010, the implications are not great. Too much is left unknown about what comes after 2010. Even with nine-percent growth over the next five years, China in 2010 will still be at a relatively low level of performance, both overall and in per-capita terms. But if sustaining nine-percent growth to 2010 means that China has launched on-going reforms that will continue to engineer institutional changes needed for a market economy's successful commercial and political management, then the resulting successful development trajectory in the rest of the century will generate profound and, from today's perspective, unexpected consequences.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
55. The Implications of China's Rise for Asia and Europe
- Author:
- Linda Jakobson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China has in a very short time span embraced multilateral mechanisms to address a broad range of issues and avoided confrontation with the United States. Both stances have shaped Asian and European views of a rising China. At present, Asian and European leaders take China's word regarding its peaceful intentions as a rising power. However, Asian and European policy-makers tend to refrain from confronting China too strongly on issues sensitive to Beijing (poor implementation of intellectual property rights, disregard for human rights, etc). The more prosperous China grows, the less influence any other country will have over Beijing's policies. A rising China is a challenge to others because of its sheer size, its great need for imported energy, and the environmental degradation it causes due to its ongoing industrialization. The troubled relationship between China and Japan is one of increasing concern and could lead to aggravated tensions in East Asia.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, and Asia
56. China: What's the Big Mystery?
- Author:
- John Feffer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The latest recruitment brochure from the Central Intelligence Agency, which beckons the uninitiated to be a part of a mission that's larger than all of us, opens to reveal an image of the red-roofed entrance to Beijing's Forbidden City. From an oversized portrait on the ancient wall, Chairman Mao and his Mona Lisa smile behold the vast granite expanse of Tiananmen Square. The Cold War is over, and the Soviet Union is gone. The cloak-and-dagger games of Berlin and Prague have been replaced by business and tourism. But Chinaland of ancient secrets, autocratic leaders, and memories of suppressed uprisingsstill holds out the promise of world-historical struggle that can help the CIA meet its recruitment goals.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Cold War
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and Soviet Union
57. Japan-China Relations: Four Fallacies Masquerading as Common Sense
- Author:
- Kazuo Ogoura
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- To gain insight into the future of the Sino-Japanese relationship, we need to clear up the misconceptions, misunderstandings, and errors that beset the two countries' relations and take an intellectual scalpel to their source. Some of the errors are related to the way people think about or perceive themselves, while others stem from the thinking or attitudes of the other party; still others are linked to the history of Japan-China relations. Here, in four questions and answers, are errors currently regarded as virtually self-evident truths.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Japan and China
58. Simmering Fire in Asia: Averting Sino-Japanese Strategic Conflict
- Author:
- Michael Swaine and Minxin Pei
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The rapid deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations in recent years has raised geopolitical tensions in East Asia and could embroil China and Japan in a dangerous strategic conflict that could be threatening to U.S. interests. China's rise, Japan's growing assertiveness in foreign policy, and new security threats and uncertainties in Asia are driving the two countries increasingly further apart. Political pandering to nationalist sentiments in each country has also contributed to the mismanagement of bilateral ties. But Japan and China are not destined to repeat the past. Their leaders must ease the tensions, restore stability, and pursue a new agenda of cooperation as equals. For its part, the United States must play a more positive and active role.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
59. Judicial Reform in China: Lessons from Shanghai
- Author:
- Veron Mei-Ying Hung
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The George W. Bush administration in September 2002 laid out in the “National Security Strategy of the United States” its strategy toward China: “We welcome the emergence of a strong, peaceful, and prosperous China.” During a trip to Asia in March 2005, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice adopted a similar phrase to welcome “the rise of a confident, peaceful, and prosperous China.”
- Topic:
- International Relations and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Shanghai, and Asia
60. Angels and Dragons: Asia, the UN, reform and the next Secretary-General
- Author:
- Michael Fullilove
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The relationship between the UN and Asia can seem unfamiliar and distant. Most of New York's energy is consumed by the Middle East and Africa rather than Northeast, South and Southeast Asia; the international organisation can seem Atlanticist in orientation. On the other side of the Pacific Ocean the strict view of state sovereignty adopted by many Asian capitals leads them to keep the UN at arm's length. As always, however, the story is more complex: we need to differentiate between the UN's work in Asia on the one hand, and Asian behaviour at the UN on the other. Since 1945, the UN has contributed to the Asian security order but only at the margins, its security role circumscribed by power politics and Asian approaches to security. By contrast, Asian states have always been keen to exercise their prerogatives in New York, viewing their UN activities as a marker of sovereignty and a source of prestige. The Brief reviews this history and sets out the current stances of the three major regional powers — China, India, and Japan — towards the UN.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Organization, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, India, and Asia
61. Rising Spatial Disparities and Development
- Author:
- Ravi Kanbur and Anthony J. Venables
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Amidst a growing concern about increasing inequality, the spatial dimensions of inequality have begun to attract considerable policy interest. In China, Russia, India, Mexico, and South Africa, as well as most other developing and transition economies, there is a sense that spatial and regional disparities in economic activity, incomes and social indicators, are on the increase. Spatial inequality is a dimension of overall inequality, but it has added significance when spatial and regional divisions align with political and ethnic tensions to undermine social and political stability. Also important in the policy debate is a perceived sense that increasing internal spatial inequality is related to greater openness of economies, and to globalization in general.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Demographics, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Mexico
62. President Attempts to Show that Asia Matters to the United States
- Author:
- John Gershman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- President Bush is in Asia this week for a series of meetings, including bilateral meetings in Japan, South Korea, China, and Mongolia and attending the economic leaders meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. This trip comes on the heels of a disastrous trip by President Bush to Latin America, but there is little sign this trip will do much to rescue the President's sinking foreign policy reputation.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, and South Korea
63. Uses of Ambiguity in North Korea Agreement
- Author:
- John Feffer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- On September 19, North Korea agreed to give up its nuclear program. As part of the same agreement, which followed the latest round of the Six Party Talks, the United States pledged not to attack or invade North Korea, to coexist peacefully with the country, and to work toward normalized relations. The United States and other parties to the agreement — China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea — offered to put together an energy package for North Korea.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
64. U.S.-China Relations — Opportunities, Risks, and the Taiwan Issue
- Author:
- Thomas J. Bickford
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- China is primarily interested in concentrating on trade and economic development and therefore wants an international environment conducive to continued economic growth. Even with recent defense budget increases, China's ability to project power beyond its borders will be extremely limited for a long time to come. There is a real risk of conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan, and U.S. policy needs to be aimed at avoiding such a conflict.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Taiwan
65. Security Council Reform Debate Highlights Challenges Facing UN
- Author:
- Ian Williams
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- Within a day of arriving at the United Nations John Bolton, the former lobbyist for Taiwan and advocate for one permanent seat on the Security Council, the United States, had cut a deal with the Chinese representative. China wants to stop an additional permanent Security Council seat for Japan. The United States had promised Japan its support in return for its loyalty over Iraq, but hated Germany more than it loves Japan. So the two agreed to thwart the attempt by the G-4 (Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan), to secure permanent seats during the current reform proposals.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, India, Taiwan, Asia, Brazil, and Germany
66. The Dragon the Chrysanthemum
- Author:
- Conn Hallinan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- At first glance, the growing tension between China and Japan seems almost inexplicable. Massive anti-Japanese demonstrations in China over events that took place more than half a century ago? A heated exchange filled with mutual threats over an offshore petroleum field that western oil companies think is not worth exploiting? Has a Shinto shrine and slanted textbooks really driven the two great Asian powers to the edge of a Cold War or worse?
- Topic:
- International Relations and War
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Israel, and Asia
67. China Brief, The Dragon's Thirst for Canadian Oil
- Author:
- Wenran Jiang, Willy Lam, David G. Wiencek, and Drew Thompson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- April marked a small leap forward in China's energy relations with Canada. China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) put down $150 million for a one-sixth stake in MEG Energy Corp., an upstart oil sands company. This is China's first major investment in Canada's vast oil sands industry. Two days later, Petro China International Co. Ltd. signed a memorandum of understanding with Canada's giant pipeline company Enbridge Inc., promising cooperation in the $2.5 billion Gateway pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast that may supply China with 200,000 barrels of crude a day once completed. China's large energy corporations are predicting more such deals but at a “much bigger” scale.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Canada, and Israel
68. China Brief,Beijing's Growing Politico-Economic Leverage over Ulaanbaatar
- Author:
- Morris Rossabi, Sergei Blagov, Migeddorj Batchimeg, Alicia Campi, and Wang Wei-Fang
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Just before the 2005 Tsagaan Sar (or New Year's) celebrations, a Mongolian government official urged his fellow citizens not to buy Chinese gifts for relatives and friends because if they did he estimated that $30 million would enter China's coffer.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Eurasia, and Israel
69. China Brief, Anti-Japanese Protests Pose Long-Term Challenges for Beijing
- Author:
- You Ji, Willy Lam, Tarique Niazi, and John C.k. Daly
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- It is not surprising that President Hu Jintao and his colleagues decided in mid-April to cool down anti-Japanese protests: a body blow has been dealt to China's reputation as a responsible member of the global community. The fact that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) administration was close to losing control over xenophobic crowds has again alerted Beijing to the reality that nationalism is a double-edged sword. There are also signs that CCP factions not allied with Hu and his sidekick, Premier Wen Jiabao, have used the worsening crisis with Japan to fault the way that the Hu-Wen team has conducted its foreign policy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
70. China Brief, Beijing's Alarm Over New “US Encirclement Conspiracy”
- Author:
- Mohan Malik, Frank Ching, Willy Lam, and William R. Hawkins
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- One of Beijing's worst nightmares seems to be coming true. Having apparently steadied the course in the Middle East, the Bush administration is turning to Asia to tame its long-standing “strategic competitor.” While this particular term has been shelved since 9/11 – and Sino-U.S. relations have improved thanks to China's cooperation with Washington's global anti-terrorist campaign – there are signs at least from Beijing's perspective that Washington is spearheading multi-pronged tactics to contain the fast-rising Asian giant.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Asia
71. China Brief, Volume 5, Issue 7 (March 29, 2005)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Next month is the 50th anniversary of the Bandung Conference, where Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai and Indonesian President Sukarno set out to carve a space for Asian and African countries based on principles of mutual interest, respect for national sovereignty and non-alignment with either the United States or the Soviet Union. In 1955, an economically and politically isolated China aspired to economic self-sufficiency through a closed, planned economy that was not dependent on imported food or other raw materials.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and East Asia
72. China Brief,Factional Politics and Beijing's Tightening Grip on Hong Kong
- Author:
- Frank Ching, Eugene Kogan, Willy Lam, and Richard A. Bitzinger
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The saga of Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's fall from grace has highlighted Beijing's tightening grip over the Special Administrative Region (SAR), as well as the dicey future of the “one country, two systems” model. While Tung indicated last Thursday that he had submitted his resignation to Beijing earlier that day because of failing health, news about his impending departure had already been splashed across the Hong Kong papers on March 2
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
73. China Brief,U.S.-Japan Security Declaration Causes China to Reconsider Stance on North Korea
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Arnold Zeitlin, Mikyoung Kim, and Ahmad Lutfi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The likelihood of Beijing putting more pressure on Pyongyang regarding the nuclear issue has decreased given Hu Jintao's perception that a plethora of “anti-China” actions have been emanating from the Bush administration. This has increased the possibility of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) flaunting the North Korean card against America's so-called containment policy against China – as well as Washington's harder line on Iran
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
74. China Brief, Editor's Note on Chinese Sea Power Special Issue
- Author:
- You Ji, Bernard D. Cole, Tarique Niazi, and Tai Ming Cheung
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- As a maritime power, China's naval developments remain an issue of intense interest for Western policymakers as its meteoric economic development paves the way for China's transformation as a major global power. In light of Beijing's quest to secure energy resources, its extensive maritime seaboard, and unresolved territorial disputes, Chinese naval interests deserve continued attention. Undoubtedly, the People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) ability to adequately defend China's sea lines of communication (SLOCs) will be critical to protecting its overseas interests. Jamestown is proud to present this special issue of China Brief on Chinese naval developments and maritime strategy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
75. China Brief, Thailand's Security and the Sino-Thai Relationship
- Author:
- Wenran Jiang, Willy Lam, William R. Hawkins, and Anthony Smith
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- If one theme characterizes Thailand's foreign policy, it is the ability to take advantage of the rivalries of larger powers. Skillfully avoiding occupation during various colonial enterprises, Thai foreign policy has cleverly sensed the prevailing winds and adapted accordingly. Thailand's close relationship with China – arguably one of the closest in Southeast Asia – sits alongside an alliance relationship with the United States. But the re-emergence of substantial independence sentiment in Thailand's southern provinces has now put Thai diplomacy to the test. Although there is no direct link, in a sense Thailand's separatist problem parallels China's own difficulties in Xinjiang. Thailand's latest challenge, this time domestic, finds that country sharing something of a similar strategic outlook to China.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
76. China Brief, Taiwan's Election Results: Good News, Bad News, Or No News?
- Author:
- Eric Hagt, Willy Lam, Drew Thompson, Gill Bates, Daniel C. Lynch, and Chen Yali
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The good news about the Taiwan Legislative Yuan elections last month, from the perspective of Beijing, Washington, and at least half of the Taiwan electorate, is that nothing will happen. Chen Shui-bian and his pan-green coalition remained a legislative minority, meaning a radical push ahead for more sovereignty – and the instabilities that might bring for cross-Strait relations – does not appear in the cards for now.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
77. Agricultural Policy Reform in Brazil
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- Brazil is a major player in the global economy, one of the world's 10 largest economies, with a population of 180 million and vast natural resources. Brazil's agricultural land is exceeded only by China, Australia and the United States, and agriculture plays an important role in the country's economy. Primary agriculture accounts for 8% of GDP, while agricultural products account for about 30% of exports.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Agriculture, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Brazil, South America, and Australia
78. Global Economic Governance at a Crossroads: Replacing the G-7 with the G-20
- Author:
- Johannes F. Linn and Colin I. Jr. Bradford
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Finance ministers representing the Group of 7 (G-7) industrialized countries met in Boca Raton, Florida, in early February amid concerns about the weakening of the U.S. dollar. One factor in the dollar's decline is the U.S. trade deficit, which is partly due to the undervalued Chinese yuan. The involvement of China, which is not a G-7 member, illustrates both the glaring gap in global governance and the increasing economic and policy interdependence between industrial countries and major emerging market economies (EMEs). As one observer, referring to the Boca Raton meeting, put it, "China is the 800-pound gorilla and it isn't even part of the negotiations."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
79. The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games: China in the limelight
- Author:
- John Bowan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Beijing's successful bid for the 2008 Olympic Games gives China a unique opportunity to signal its emergence as a leading player in the mainstream of international affairs. The Games will provide a unique opportunity to showcase to the international public, as well as to foreign governments and international business, China's technical and organisational capabilities, its cultural and social achievements, and its standing and potential as a global economic power and partner. The ongoing strong commitment to the Games by the national Government, and the rapid and efficient progress made to date by the Beijing Olympic organisers, are impressive; from a technical point of view, China's challenging Olympic project is on track. The Games will make some limited contribution to the extraordinary economic and technological development China is making, particularly in environmental protection. Similarly, the Games have the potential to make some incremental contribution to improving human rights in China. Their significance as a force for change in this area should not be overestimated, however, and the evidence is that the Olympic influence on China's human rights has so far been limited. Despite the good cooperation at the Olympic level that has developed between China and Taiwan in recent years, the hosting of the Games would not stand in the way of drastic action by China if Taiwan pursued independence beyond the limits of its tolerance. Australia's cooperative Olympic links with China, developed during Beijing's bid, add a valuable dimension to the strong and important relationship between the two countries.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Civil Society, and Development
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
80. China Brief, Energy Concerns and China's Unresolved Territorial Disputes
- Author:
- Matthew Oresman, Drew Thompson, John C.k. Daly, and Harvey Stockwin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- While much of the world is fixated on China's booming economic growth and its ravenous appetite for energy, untidy diplomatic loose ends in the form of territorial disputes with neighbors have many of the countries bordering the Asian giant nervous. Though Beijing's claims over Taiwan remain the focus of world attention, China is embroiled in unresolved territorial maritime and land issues with no less than thirteen of its neighbors. Given that China's military capability is growing apace with its economy, the potential for military conflict over the disputed regions is similarly on the rise. While China up to now has attempted to address these issues diplomatically, the fact that many of the unresolved border disputes involve potential energy reserves might prompt China to use military force to resolve issues of strategic economic interest.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia
81. China Brief, Beijing's North Korean Gambit
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Lionel Martin, John Tkacik, and Toby Lincoln
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Beijing is flashing the North Korean (DPRK) card at a time when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership feels increasingly threatened by an anti-China “containment policy” that Washington is supposedly spearheading with the help of Japan, Taiwan and other Asian countries and regions.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Washington, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, Asia, and North Korea
82. China Brief, China's Quest for Energy Security
- Author:
- Wenran Jiang, Willy Lam, Dennis J. Blasko, and Eric Teo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The year is 2008. The setting is the vast West Pacific region. To break the US-Japan- Taiwan military containment of China, the combined air, navy and armed forces of the Chinese Liberation Army (PLA), equipped with newly established carrier battle groups, have destroyed all U.S. military bases in the region, taken control of all strategic sea routes from the Strait of Malacca to the Persian Gulf, and imposed an oil embargo to choke the U.S., Japan, Taiwan and their allies.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Israel, and Taiwan
83. China Brief, Hu Jintao's Move to Consolidate Power
- Author:
- Eugene Kogan, Willy Lam, Drew Thompson, Dennis J. Blasko, and Zhu Feng
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- President and Central Military Commission (CMC) Chairman Hu Jintao has moved swiftly to tighten his grip over the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The emphasis that the new commander-in-chief has put on flexing the nation's fast-growing military muscle has fed speculation that he will be taking a more hard-line stance on relations with the U.S. and with Taiwan. However, it is unlikely that the predominant Hu-Wen Faction – a reference to the leadership team under Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao – will unveil too many major initiatives until it has consolidated its control over the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the government and the army.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Taiwan
84. China Brief, Hong Kong's LegCo Elections: Overcoming the System
- Author:
- Christine Loh, Willy Lam, Eric Teo, and Zhenzhen Chen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The 1.784 million voters that participated in Hong Kong's 2004 Legislative Council Election gave a clear signal that they want democracy sooner rather than later. Whereas until now Hong Kongers have only been able to select the opposition, the recent elections indicated the people's desire to elect their city government. However, herein lies the uniqueness of Hong Kong's political system. Despite the city's many achievements in education standards, economic vibrancy, and social stability, its seven million people have yet to be allowed to freely choose their municipal political leaders.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
85. China Brief, China and Japan: The Separation of Economics and Politics
- Author:
- Christine Loh, Eugene Kogan, Willy Lam, Drew Thompson, and Zhu Feng
- Publication Date:
- 09-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The soon-to-be-announced appointment of former Vice-Foreign Minister Wang Yi as Chinese Ambassador to Japan is emblematic of efforts by the Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao leadership to improve Sino-Japanese relationship. In the past year, bilateral ties have deteriorated due to a host of issues ranging from “the question of history” – and compensation for World War II-related damages – to altercations over rights to oil and gas under the East China Sea. Protests by nationalistic Chinese groupings outside the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, banned until about two years ago, have become almost routine. Ugly scenes at a recent soccer match between the two national teams in the Chinese capital demonstrated the hostility with which many Chinese regard their nextdoor neighbor. And in Japan, the “China threat” theory is fast gaining ground owing to the perception that an economically and militarily strong China is throwing its weight around and threatening Japanese interests everywhere.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Israel
86. China Brief, New Challenges in the Election Season
- Author:
- Stephen Green, Willy Lam, Eric Teo, and Alexandr Nemets
- Publication Date:
- 08-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Although the Chinese leadership faces no electoral contenders, Beijing will soon have to deal with two uncertain but crucial elections in the next four months, the consequences of which could have serious implications for China's internal political cohesiveness as well as regional stability. In September, Hong Kongers will elect their Legislative Council (Legco), of which 30 seats are set aside for election through universal suffrage and the other 30 through “functional representation.” And in December, Taiwanese go to the polls to choose their next Legislative Yuan (Taiwan's legislature), nine months after they had renewed the mandate of President Chen Shui-Bian for a second term in March.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Taiwan
87. China Brief,Beijing's Reaction to East Asia's Changing Alliance
- Author:
- Christine Loh, Willy Lam, Eric Teo, and Steven Sun
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- If China had sufficient economic and military prowess, there seems little doubt the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership would “go teach the U.S. a lesson” for the wrongs it had allegedly inflicted upon on the country. Previous CCP administrations had used similar clauses of indignation – and the assertion of a moral high ground based on self-defense and the preservation of sovereign rights – when they went to war with nations including India, Russia and Vietnam. And while the Chinese party and military leadership may for the time being be deterred by America's superpower status from trying out something rash, tension between China on the one hand, and the U.S. and many Asian countries on the other, is expected to rise in the foreseeable future.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, America, Asia, and Vietnam
88. China Brief, No More 'Soft Sell' for Hong Kong
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Zhu Feng, Kevin Scott, Marat Yermukanov, and Andrew Thompson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Beijing has acted quickly to dash the hopes that the half-a-million-people rally in Hong Kong last week will change the leadership's hard-line stance toward universal-suffrage elections in the special administrative region (SAR). While the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has continued with its public-relations, united-front offensive to win hearts and minds in the territory, it is expected to step up its divide-and-run tactics in order to isolate and marginalize pro-democracy politicians and intellectuals who dare challenge Beijing's suzerainty.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, Beijing, and Hong Kong
89. China Brief, A Prisoner's Dilemma: The EU's China Arms Embargo
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Richard A. Bitzinger, Alexandr Nemets, and Enzio Von Pfeil
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In April, the European Union (EU) dodged a bullet by refusing to take up the issue of overturning its 15-year-old ban on selling arms to China. Supporters of lifting the embargo, led by France and Germany, are unlikely to abandon their quest, however, and the issue will likely come up again for review, perhaps as early as this summer. If it lifts the ban, the EU risks further damaging a transatlantic alliance already strained over Iraq and other issues, with very little likelihood that its defense industry would see much, if any, benefit.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Israel
90. China Brief, A Warming Friendship: Part II of a Two Part Series on China, Taiwan, and Latin America
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Drew Thompson, Cynthia Watson, and James P. Jr. Muldoon
- Publication Date:
- 06-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The recent spate of articles on China's growing energy and natural resource consumption is a key explanation for Beijing's growing interest in South America. While the continent remains at least fourth on China's list of priorities, the vast array of resources available, coupled with a growing population eager to increase its consumption of goods, makes this part of the world ever more enticing. The People's Republic of China (PRC) seeks to put a modest investment in diplomatic, military, cultural, and trade relations for a possible long-term gain of significant proportion.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, Beijing, and South America
91. China Brief, Balancing U.S. Interests in the Strait
- Author:
- Ronald N. Montaperto, Willy Lam, Cynthia Watson, and Jean-Pierre Cabestan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- In the view of many observers, the normalization of Sino-American relations signaled the end of a strategic relationship with the Republic of China (Taiwan) that had endured with but one brief interruption for forty years. The rapid growth of economic ties between the U.S. and mainland China in the 1980s seemed to confirm this assessment. Although political connections through the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) remain strong, the major benefit to the United States of its unofficial relationship to the island lies in the economic realm.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Taiwan
92. China Brief, The Dragon's Drive for Caspian Oil
- Author:
- Ahmad Lutfi, John C. K. Daly, Stephen Bank, and Sergei Troush
- Publication Date:
- 05-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- China's insatiable energy thirst is causing it to undertake a global search for energy supplies to sustain its booming economy. Beijing has injected itself into the complex Caspian chess match to ensure itself as large a share as possible of resources being developed there. This complex political and economic maneuvering forces China to deal with the Caspian's five riparian states - Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iran, Israel, Kazakhstan, Beijing, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan
93. China Brief, Kim Jong-Il's Visit to Beijing: What Does it Mean for the West?
- Author:
- Mohan Malik, Matthew Oresman, Willy Lam, and Paul H.B Godwin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The unusually effusive reception that the Chinese leadership accorded Dear Leader Kim Jong-Il last week has buttressed speculation that Beijing and Pyongyang probably reached some form of a deal even prior to the long awaited visit. According to diplomatic sources in Beijing, Kim agreed during discussions with his Chinese hosts to take a “more serious and proactive stance” toward the ongoing six-nation talks on dismantling his country's weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Moreover, the sources said the reclusive leader pledged that unless there was further “provocation” from the United States, Pyongyang would not engage in tension raising gimmicks such as testing bombs or missiles. And, at least for the time being, a freeze would be put on the development of new WMD.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, Beijing, and Pyongyang
94. China Brief,China's Reaction to America's Iraq Imbroglio
- Author:
- You Ji, Igor Rotar, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership has been at pains not to appear to be gloating over the American quagmire in Iraq. Yet in terms of geopolitical calculus, there is little doubt Beijing sees America's worsening problems in Iraq as beneficial to China's global standing, diplomatically and militarily. Capitalizing on fissures in the international community over Iraq and America's war on terror, China has strengthened ties with key members of the European Union and the United Nations in an effort to counterbalance U.S. hegemony. Meanwhile, Chinese experts' scrutiny of the exploits as well as challenges of American and Allied Forces in Iraq will have a big impact on the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) ambitious modernization drive.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Iraq, America, Europe, Israel, and Beijing
95. China Brief, Chen shui-bian after the election: lame duck or phoenix?
- Author:
- Bernard D. Cole, Willy Lam, Arnold Zeitlin, and Harvey Stockwin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Beijing's unusually cautious response to Taiwan's disputed presidential polls shows that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership has yet to come to a consensus on how to deal with four more years of administration under 'splittis' President Chen Shui-bian. This, despite the fact that with the country's fastgrowing economic, military and diplomatic clout, Beijing would seem to enjoy unquestioned superiority over the increasingly divided island of Taiwan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, Taiwan, and Beijing
96. China Brief,Cross-Strait Relations In Taiwan's Presi - Dential Elections
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Jonathan Mirsky, Enzio von Pfeil, and Ashok Kapur
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- No military action for the Taiwan Strait--not even psychological warfare oriented missile drills such as those undertaken in late 1995 and early 1996--is being planned by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) for the coming year or so. And this will be true whether President Chen Shui-bian or his challenger, Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman Lien Chan, wins in the hotly contested polls on March 20. However, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership is readying hardball solutions to the reunification problem for the medium-term.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Taiwan
97. China Brief, Understanding Chinaís North Korea Policy
- Author:
- Frank Ching, You Ji, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The two rounds of six-party talks in Beijing on the Korean nuclear standoff have demonstrated China.s unusual support for a multilateral solution to the conflict. This is symbolic of the country.s new diplomacy under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabo. As is typical, Beijing is seeking to maximize its diplomatic gains for reasons related to national prestige and regional stability. What is new, however, is that the two leaders are trying to achieve these goals by having China act as a status quo power rather than through revisionist behavior. This change is vividly reflected in the fact that China has proven more willing to cooperate with the United States and is more determined to pressure North Korea. This brief article attempts to evaluate some of the domestic and international factors that are driving China to sponsor the six-party talks. conflicts on the Peninsula.with severe security implications for China. In the last few years two schools of thought have emerged in Beijing with respect to Chinese policy toward the DPRK. The first of these is the .buffer zone. school. It argues that, Pyongyang.s ill intentions and unpredictable adventurism notwithstanding, North Korea.s very existence remains of great strategic value to a China whose worst security nightmare is that of another Korean war. Moreover, any regime change that might occur in the DPRK as a result of war could bring the deployment of U.S. troops to positions close to the Sino-Korean borders. And taking into consideration a possible showdown between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, this could result in a hostile military presence right on China.s doorstep. Indeed, it was precisely this worst case scenario that China fought a war fifty-four years ago to prevent.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, North Korea, Korea, and Pyongyang
98. China Brief, Sars: Spreading Unrest
- Author:
- Willy Lam, William R. Hawkins, Harvey Stockwin, and Li Thian-hok
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome—the SARS virus—throughout China is a phenomenon that had previously been denied by authorities and had gone unreported. But the penetration of the disease is now being admitted publicly, and efforts to combat it have begun. While the immediate epidemic in Beijing appears to be in decline, the fear remains that the spread of SARS within China will still be difficult—and maybe impossible—to control, let alone to eliminate. World Health Organization (WHO) officials admit that what happens in China will “make or break” the course of the epidemic. China's neighbors, and particularly Hong Kong, worry that a failure to curtail the virus will inevitably result in a fresh round of crossborder infection, further intensifying the already grave economic impact of SARS on the region. At worst, a sustained epidemic could bring China's opening-up to the outside world to a screeching halt.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, Beijing, and Hong Kong
99. China Brief, Taiwan's presidential countdown: what does it mean for the united states?
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Arnold Zeitlin, John Tkacik, and Jonathan Mirsky
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Could Taiwan's voters elect a pro-unification candidate in 2004? Can the challenger, Kuomintang chairman Lien Chan, put together an electoral consensus of ethnic mainlanders, Hakkas and ethnic Taiwanese investors in China that will begin the process of moving Taiwan into the embrace of the People's Republic of China? The polls indicate it could be a fifty-fifty proposition, especially if the campaign's focus is the economy—not national identity. Washington should begin to consider its substantial strategic stake in Taiwan, and rethink the message that its diplomats in Taipei are sending Taiwan's public.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
100. China Brief, New Disease, New Leaders, Same Old Regime
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Harvey Stockwin, Gordon G. Chang, and Richard D. Fisher
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- An epidemic, spread by official deception and indifference, is afflicting the Chinese people. What does this disease mean for the People's Republic of China?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
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