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652. Japan's Nuclear Tremors After Quake
- Author:
- Jayshree Bajoria
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The devastation wreaked by Japan's worst-ever earthquake and the accompanying tsunami continues to widen. Officials put the death toll at thirty-five hundred (UPI), while some reports say more than ten thousand have died (AP) in Miyagi prefecture alone. Tens of thousands of people remain unaccounted for, and the number of casualties is expected to rise, as large numbers are believed buried under rubble. Millions of survivors struggle without electricity, food, and drinking water. Fears of a nuclear meltdown from reactors damaged by the quake prompted Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan to declare the disaster the country's "most severe crisis" (BBC) since World War II.
- Topic:
- Natural Disasters and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Japan, East Asia, and Asia
653. Thailand: The Calm before Another Storm?
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Nearly a year after the crackdown on anti-establishment demonstrations, Thailand is preparing for a general election. Despite government efforts to suppress the Red Shirt movement, support remains strong and the deep political divide has not gone away. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's roadmap for reconciliation has led almost nowhere. Although there have been amateurish bomb attacks carried out by angry Red Shirts since the crackdown, fears of an underground battle have not materialised. On the other side, the Yellow Shirts have stepped up their nationalist campaigns against the Democrat Party-led government that their earlier rallies had helped bring to power. They are now claiming elections are useless in “dirty” politics and urging Thais to refuse to vote for any of the political parties. Even if the elections are free, fair and peaceful, it will still be a challenge for all sides to accept the results. If another coalition is pushed together under pressure from the royalist establishment, it will be a rallying cry for renewed mass protests by the Red Shirts that could plunge Thailand into more violent confrontation.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Asia
654. Analyzing Post-Conflict Justice and Islamic Law
- Author:
- Whitney Parker, Scott Worden, Shani Ross, and Sahar Azar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Post-conflict justice mechanisms such as truth commissions, war crimes tribunals and reparations programs have emerged as a fundamental building block of durable peace settlements in Latin America, Africa and Asia. They are relatively rare, however, in Muslim countries recovering from conflict-despite the fact that social and criminal justice is a fundamental principle of Islamic law.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Crime, Islam, War, Law Enforcement, and Law
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Asia, Arabia, and Latin America
655. Fragmentation and Changes in the Asian Trade Network
- Author:
- Norihiko Yamano, Bo Meng, and Kiichiro Fukasaku
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The Asian trade network is increasingly fragmented, resulting in higher dependence on supplies of goods and services from neighbouring countries. The update OECD Input-Output and Bilateral Trade Databases allow us to examine the recent evolution of international trade networks involving ASEAN and East Asian countries at the 2-digit industry level. Using several globalization indicators, this Policy Brief highlights major changes in the pattern of Asia's trade in intermediate goods and services since the mid-1990s. It concludes by discussing implications for Asia's regional integration.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Regional Integration, Economic Cooperation, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia
656. Links with East Asia for a recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake: Geographical Simulation Analysis
- Author:
- Ikumo Isono and Fukunari Kimura
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- Japan is now struggling for a recovery from the devastating earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011. Although trunk logistic infrastructure has quickly been restored, some local infrastructure is likely to take a longer time to re-establish. The theory of new economic geography suggests that temporary interruption of infrastructure services may generate long-term negative effects on the Tohoku region and Japan as a whole because some of the economic activities may move away. We argue that strengthening links with East Asia is a key supplementary policy for achieving a full economic recovery. Our Geographical Simulation Model assesses economic effects of several policy scenarios.
- Topic:
- Environment, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure, Recovery, and Geography
- Political Geography:
- Japan, East Asia, and Asia
657. The Economic Consequences of Shifting Away From Nuclear Energy
- Author:
- Ken Itakura
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- In the aftermath of the devastating nuclear fallout in Japan, there has been a harsh debate surrounding the role of nuclear energy in electricity generation. A changing role will have economic consequences on production, consumption, and international trade. To quantity these effects, we implemented simulations with a global CGE model and database. The simulation results show that reductions in the use of nuclear for electric power generation may have profound negative impacts on the Japanese economy. A nuclear accident at the Fukushima power plant changed the future direction of Japanese energy policy as well as Asian energy policy. These policies are integrated via technological, financial, and nuclear energy knowledge sharing activities within the region. The main objective of this policy brief is to shed some light on the following question: what would be the economic consequences of altering the source of power generation from nuclear to fossil fuels? This Japanese case study offers policy implications for both Japan and the region as a whole.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
658. The Republic of Korea’s Perspective on Defense Transparency
- Author:
- Beomchul Shin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- The Republic of Korea has greatly enhanced defense transparency both domestically and internationally since the end of the 1990s, using a mix of strategies. However, the efforts of the current administration to enhance defense transparency at the international level do not match efforts at home. Some experts believe that the ROK is already on par with other nations and that its neighbors should reciprocate by shedding more light on their own defense policies and practices.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Domestic Politics, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and Korea
659. Harnessing the European Experience in Defense Transparency
- Author:
- Christian Le-Miere
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Europe has pioneered and championed the cause of defense transparency, owing to the continent’s turbulent history and a desire to avoid these mistakes again. Defense transparency has improved in Europe as a result of the roles played by private industry and media, as well as the consequences of conflict or collaboration between the governments on the continent. The conditions that have encouraged greater transparency in Europe are not entirely reflected in Asia, but steps are being taken to gradually improve defense transparency in the region.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, History, Media, Transparency, and Private Sector
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Asia
660. A Civilian Perspective on Defense Transparency in the Republic of Korea: The More, the Better?
- Author:
- Kang Choi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- In a change from the past, the government of the Republic of Korea now emphasizes communication with domestic as well as external audiences. However, practices during past military authoritarian regimes have left a lasting, negative impression on the public. As a result, the government still suffers from a credibility gap, making it difficult to gain support at home for its defense policies. The government may need to rethink the methods and content of its communications on defense in the face of continued demands for more detailed and timely information.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Government, Public Opinion, Civilians, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
661. Measuring Transparency in Military Expenditure: The Case of China
- Author:
- Sam Perlo-Freeman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- This policy brief discusses the key dimensions of military expenditure transparency and assesses them in relation to China. While spending transparency relates most obviously to the availability, reliability, detail, and comprehensiveness of information, it cannot be completely separated from broader defense policy formation issues. China has a robust framework for developing, implementing, and monitoring defense policy, budgeting, and expenditure, and producing readily-accessible budget and expenditure data in English and Chinese; however, these processes are largely carried out behind closed doors.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Affairs, Budget, Military Spending, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
662. Asia’s Electric Grid: The Future of Nuclear Power in the Region’s Energy Mix
- Author:
- Isabella Mroczkowski
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- The confluence of a growing economy and increasing standard of living are causing energy demands to increase throughout Asia. Accordingly, Asia is projected to have the world’s highest growth in nuclear power through 2035. In the aftermath of the Fukushima-Daiichi disaster there has been a great deal of uncertainty in the outlook for nuclear energy and by extension the future energy-mix of the region.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Nuclear Power, Economy, and Electricity
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
663. Scaling Japan’s Defense Needs: Airpower in Asia and the FX Program
- Author:
- Dan Blumenthal
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- The widespread modernization of Asian air forces is changing the strategic landscape in the Asia-Pacific. The United States, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Singapore, and India are all engaged in upgrading their military’s fighter fleets as security competition in the region is on the rise. Among Asia’s burgeoning air force modernization programs, the most important to U.S. security (apart from America’s own) is that of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) — Tokyo is the United States’ closest Asian ally and U.S.-Japan alliance is the lynchpin of America’s alliance structure in the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Modernization, and Air Force
- Political Geography:
- Japan, India, Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, and United States of America
664. The Panda Bear Readies to Meet the Polar Bear: China Debates and Formulates Foreign Policy Towards Arctic Affairs and Canada’s Arctic Sovereignty
- Author:
- David Curtis Wright
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The rise of China to international prominence by virtually every measure conceivable is the single most important international and geopolitical fact of the early twenty-first century. The insatiable Chinese colossus combs the earth in search of energy to fuel its economic juggernaut; its trade networks now bestride the globe; and its investors now hold the single largest proportion of United States foreign debt in the form of US Treasury securities. China now has many very astute and acutely observant geostrategic thinkers, and several of them have begun lately to focus their attention squarely on Canada. Why? Because of two things: the tremendous untapped wealth and the currently still largely unused Northwest Passage in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). The Canadian Arctic has what China wants: natural resources and the possibility of a major new shipping route. China knows that Canadian control over these resources makes Canada a major international player, a country with natural resource wealth and geostrategic advantage befitting its sheer geographical size, but out of proportion with its relatively small population. Over the past decade or so China has been paying increased attention to the Arctic and Arctic affairs and since 2004, China has had a permanent land-based presence in the Arctic, specifically in the Svalbard Archipelago, or Spitsbergen (well inside the Arctic Ocean in the Barents Sea). This is where it maintains its Arctic Yellow River Station (Huang He zhan), a facility for oceanic and climatological research. China became the eighth state to establish research facilities there. There are currently energetic discussions and debates in China about the Arctic as the country formulates official foreign policy regarding the region. While it is certainly not an Arctic state, China nonetheless feels entitled to a voice in Arctic affairs and does not want wealthy and powerful northern states to grow even more so at the expense of the wider world’s access to Arctic resources and navigation routes.2 While it seems unlikely that China has any ambitions of becoming an armed belligerent in a future war over the Arctic, or of making serious territorial claims in the region, it can be expected that China will become more assertive and opinionated in its commentary on Arctic affairs, especially as they pertain to extended continental shelf territorial claims currently being prepared by Arctic states – Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and the United States. Canada needs to be aware that in the course of these discussions and debates, some Chinese scholars are carefully examining Canada's claims of historical sovereignty over the Arctic in general and the Northwest Passage in particular. Although it appears at present that Beijing does not want to affirm the accuracy or appropriateness of Canada's historical claims, Canada should be aware that the small number of scholars in China who consider these claims in detail seem largely to end up sympathetic with, and supportive of, them. Even so, the Chinese government itself does not seem ready to affirm Canadian Arctic sovereignty. Canada needs to be on its guard against Chinese attempts to water down Canada’s Arctic sovereignty and should strengthen cooperation with democratic Arctic states for the security and stability of the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Canada, Asia, North America, and Arctic
665. Traditional Dispute Resolution and Stability in Afghanistan
- Author:
- John Dempsey and Noah Coburn
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Stability in Afghanistan will remain elusive unless disputes between individuals and among communities can be resolved through peaceful and equitable means. However, state justice institutions are barely functioning in much of the country and are incapable of meeting many justice and dispute resolution needs of Afghans. Instead, the majority of Afghans turn to traditional justice mechanisms—including tribal councils and village and religious leaders—to address both civil and criminal disputes. In many parts of the country, including areas recently cleared of insurgents, the best way to make signi_cant, visible, short-term (12 to 18 months) gains in peacefully resolving disputes is to work with community-based structures. USIP has drawn important lessons from its work with Afghan partners to implement pilot programs exploring links between the state and traditional justice systems in four provinces across the country (in Nangarhar, Khost, Paktia and Herat). Programs designed to create or strengthen existing links between traditional justice bodies and state institutions can build mutual trust and harness the strengths of each. Donor-funded traditional justice programs need to involve the Afghan government while also accounting for the practical needs of communities to settle disputes in line with their own traditions and procedures, as well as Afghanistan's laws and human rights norms.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
666. Delays Will Not Improve Afghan Elections
- Author:
- Scott Worden
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The presidential and provincial council elections held in Afghanistan in August 2009 were marred by irregularities and fraud, leading voters and candidates to question the fairness and utility of the democratic process there. The Afghan government announced in late January that it will delay Parliamentary elections until September 2010—several months beyond the deadline set by Afghanistan's constitution. The extra time is needed to make adequate logistical preparations, but little has been done so far to reform electoral institutions or policies to prevent a repeat of the problems of the 2009 elections. Without signi_cant changes in the personnel and policies of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)—the constitutional body responsible for overseeing all electoral processes— the 2010 election is likely to fall below international standards and risks undermining government (and international) legitimacy at a critical period for the counterinsurgency strategy. In addition, signi_ cant long-term reforms, including a wholesale revision of the voter registry, must be initiated now to ensure that the district council and other future Afghan elections are credible and acceptable.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Sovereignty, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
667. The dangers of militarized aid in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Ashley Jackson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Every half hour, an average of one Afghan woman dies from pregnancy-related complications, another dies of tuberculosis and 14 children die, largely from preventable causes. Eight years after the fall of the Taliban, the humanitarian and development needs in Afghanistan remain acute.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, War, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Asia, and Taliban
668. Medvedev's take on the power vertical: Are the rules of the game changing in Russia?
- Author:
- Katri Pynnöniemi and Sinikukka Saari
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The political system that Vladimir Putin established during the first decade of the 2000s is often referred to as 'the power vertical'. The term suggests a stable, streamlined and effective centre-led system. Yet, this image does not quite correspond with Russian reality. The system creates inefficiency, encourages corruption and is hostile towards bottom-up political initiative. The current leadership acknowledges that Russian stability is on shaky ground and therefore the system is in need of modernization. The economy is clearly a priority for the leadership: it believes that the political system's modernization should emerge gradually and in a highly controlled fashion from economic achievements. The current system in Russia is hostile to innovation and prone to corruption and therefore Medvedev's modernization plan is unlikely to succeed unless transparency and open competition within the system are considerably enhanced. This will be difficult to achieve because the elite benefits from the current corrupt and non-transparent system where the lines of responsibility are unclear. The West should not expect dramatic changes and radical liberal reforms in Russia. Western actors should, nevertheless, actively support and encourage economic and political reforms in the country and engage with it through international cooperation on specific issues such as anti-corruption policy. By stepping up its engagement with Russia, the West can demonstrate that a prosperous, competitive and modern Russia is also in the interests of the West.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
669. Indonesia and Australia: time for a step change
- Author:
- Fergus Hanson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The relationship with Indonesia is one of Australia's most important but it is still not on a firm footing. Government-to-government ties have been strengthening but relations are focused around a mostly negative set of security-related issues. Business-to-business links are underdone and mutual public perceptions are poor. Without significant incentives to drive closer ties, one of Australia's most important relationships will continue to stagnate.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia
670. The Sustainability of China's Recovery from the Global Recession
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- China's policy response to the global financial and economic crisis was early, large, and well-designed. Although Chinese financial institutions had little exposure to the toxic financial assets that brought down many large Western investment banks and other financial firms, China's leadership recognized that its dependence on exports meant that it was acutely vulnerable to a global recession. Thus they did not subscribe to the view sometimes described as “decoupling,” the idea that Asian countries could passively weather the financial storm that originated in the United States and other advanced industrial economies. They understood that absent a vigorous policy response China inevitably would suffer from the backwash of a sharp economic slowdown in its largest export markets—the United States and Europe.
- Topic:
- Economics and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, and Asia
671. Very Low Fertility in Asia: Is There a Problem? Can It Be Solved?
- Author:
- Sidney B. Westley, Robert D. Retherford, and Minja Kim Choe
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Fifty years ago, women in Asia were having, on average, more than five children each, and there was widespread fear of a “population explosion” in the region. Then birth rates began to fall—in several countries more steeply than anyone had anticipated. This unexpected trend has now raised concerns about the social and economic impact of extremely low fertility. Today, four of Asia's most prosperous economies—Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan—have among the lowest birth rates in the world. With women having, on average, only one child each, these societies have expanding elderly populations and a shrinking workforce to pay for social services and drive economic growth. And in Japan, overall population numbers are already going down. Why are women choosing to have so few children? How are policy- makers responding to these trends? Government leaders have initiated a variety of policies and programs designed to encourage marriage and childbearing, but to what effect? Given current social and economic trends, it is unlikely that Asia' s steep fertility decline will be reversed, at least not in the for eseeable future.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Health, and Population
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Taiwan, Asia, South Korea, and Singapore
672. Billions More for International Institutions? The ABCs of the General Capital Increases (GCI)
- Author:
- Todd Moss, Sarah Jane Staats, and Julia Barmeier
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The international financial institutions dramatically increased their lending in 2008–09 to help developing countries cope with the global financial crisis and support economic recovery. Today, these organizations are seeking billions of dollars in new funding. The IMF, which only a few years ago was losing clients and shedding staff, expanded by $750 billion last year. The World Bank and the four regional development banks for Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America are asking to increase their capital base by 30 to 200 percent. A general capital increase (GCI) for these development banks is an unusual request. A simultaneous GCI request is a once-in-a-generation occurrence.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and World Bank
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Asia, and Latin America
673. Pakistan's Nuclear Posture: Implications for South Asian Stability
- Author:
- Vipin Narang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Terrorists from Lashkar-e-Taiba—a group historically supported by Pakistan—laid siege to Mumbai in November 2008, crippling the city for three days and taking at least 163 lives. But India's response was restrained; it did not mobilize its military forces to retaliate against either Pakistan or Lashkar camps operating there. A former Indian chief of Army Staff, Gen. Shankar Roychowdhury, bluntly stated that Pakistan's threat of nuclear use deterred India from seriously considering conventional military strikes.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, India, and Asia
674. Steps Towards Peace: Putting Kashmiris First
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- India and Pakistan have consistently subjected Kashmiri interests to their own national security agendas and silenced calls for greater autonomy. With the start of their composite dialogue – comprehensive negotiations to resolve all contentious bilateral issues, including Kashmir, launched in February 2004 – both appeared willing to allow more interaction across the Line of Control (LOC) but failed to engage Kashmiris in the process. As a result, they did not take full advantage of opportunities to enhance cross-LOC cooperation by identifying the most appropriate Kashmir-specific confidence-building measures (CBMs), and bureaucratic resistance in both capitals resulted in uneven implementation of even those that had been agreed. India has suspended the composite dialogue since the November 2008 Mumbai attacks by Pakistan based militants, but neither New Delhi nor Islamabad has backtracked on these CBMs. Nevertheless, the CBM process will only achieve major results if the two sides devolve authority to Kashmir's elected representatives and take other vital steps to win over its alienated public.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, India, and Asia
675. Can Economic Reform Open a Peaceful Path to Ending Burma's Isolation? (Burmese edition)
- Author:
- Raymond Gilpin and Lex Rieffel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- After decades of domestic conflict, military rule and authoritarian governance, Burma's economy could provide a viable entry point for effective international assistance to promote peace. Doing so would require a detailed understanding of the country's complex and evolving political economy.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Asia
676. Never mind the gap: Turkish-Armenian relations past the crossroads
- Author:
- Einar Wigen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- The Turkish-Armenian protocols signed in October 2009 seemed to represent a historic advance that could help resolve the two countries' dispute over the events of 1915 and change the regional dynamics for the better. But six months on, the implementation of the protocols has stalled, the much vaunted normalisation of Turkish-Armenian state-to-state relations appears all but dead, and the will to revive the process is at a low point.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Genocide, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Turkey, and Asia
677. Norway's strategic challenges in Afghanistan: how to make a difference?
- Author:
- Ståle Ulriksen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Norway may be a marginal actor in Afghanistan as a whole, but its troop contingent and development aid programmes mean that it does play an important role in the north-west of the country as part of a joint overall effort with its allies and friends. This role is now facing a twofold test.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Humanitarian Aid, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, and Asia
678. Afghanistan's religious landscape: politicising the sacred
- Author:
- Kaja Borchgrevink and Kristian Berg Harpviken
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan's thirty years of war have seen the gradual and heavy politicisation of religion. A number of new and distinct types of political movements – which can be characterised broadly as “fundamentalists”, “Islamists” and “neo-fundamentalists” – has emerged to challenge traditional expressions of Islam. This has transformed the religious landscape in Afghanistan, which is as a result more variegated than ever before. The different attitudes of these new currents to questions of religious authority, political process, and the Afghan statebuilding project need to be carefully distinguished. More generally, the appearance of such movements highlights the way that the role of religion, though often overlooked, is central to the attempt since the regime-change of late 2001 to build a viable Afghan state. The impact of the new actors (including the Taliban itself) is reflected in the way that President Hamid Karzai – struggling to balance the modernised secularists supporting the statebuilding project and the religious fundamentalists opposing it – has allowed several ex-jihadi Islamist factions into the government. The result of this accommodation has been both to sustain the former jihadi leaders' influence and contribute to the marginalisation of more moderate Islamic forces. At the same time, many religious leaders believe they could contribute positively to the statebuilding agenda by generating support among Afghan people. This complex situation makes an understanding of Afghanistan's diverse religious landscape and the various positions vis-à-vis the state all the more essential in the context of efforts to develop strategies for peace and reconciliation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, War, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
679. Promises, Promises: A briefing paper for the Kabul Conference on Afghanistan
- Author:
- Ashley Jackson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The Kabul Conference marks the ninth international conference on Afghanistan in nearly as many years. The conference aims to present a new set of development programs and shore up international support for civilian efforts. It will also follow up on commitments made on anticorruption and reconciliation during the London Conference in January 2010. Yet much of the hope and optimism that marked the earlier conferences such as the Bonn Conference in 2001, which set out the parameters for the interim government, and the Paris Conference in 2006, which outlined a strategy for reconstruction and development, is now gone.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, War, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
680. Women and Children First: On the frontline of war in the Kivus
- Publication Date:
- 06-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- In 2009, the government of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with international backing, launched military offensives against the FDLR (Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda) and other militias in eastern DRC, with devastating humanitarian consequences: an estimated 900,000 people displaced and over 1,400 documented civilian deaths attributed to militia and government forces. In 2010 a new offensive, Amani Leo ('peace today'), continues efforts to disarm the militias, with some additional safeguards for civilian safety linked to UN peacekeeping support for the operations. However, while some areas have become safer as a result, ongoing population displacement (over 164,000 January- April 2010) and protection cluster monitoring of human rights violations (up 246% January-February in South Kivu after the launch of Amani Leo) are indications of continuing fallout for civilians. A survey conducted by Oxfam and partners in North and South Kivu in April 2010 enquired into the experiences of people in areas affected by the military operations. It found that, for 60% of respondents this year, things are worse than in 2009.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Gender Issues, Genocide, and War
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Democratic Republic of the Congo
681. Understanding Military Innovation: Chinese Defense S in Historical and Theoretical Perspective
- Author:
- Thomas G. Mahnken
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Given the high stakes involved in China's rise, both in Asia and globally, understanding the scope and pace of Chinese military modernization is an important undertaking. This brief applies insights from the theory and history of military innovation to the task of understanding China's development of anti-access and area denial capabilities and provides recommendations on how the United States can improve its ability to detect and recognize Chinese military innovation.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and North America
682. The Chinese Defense Economy's Long March from Imitation to Innovation
- Author:
- Tai Ming Cheung
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, China's defense science, technology, and innovation (DSTI) system has been vigorously developing a comprehensive set of innovation capabilities that will eventually allow it to join the world's top tier of military technological powers. Ample access to financial, human, and research resources; strong political support; inflows of foreign technologies and know-how; and the introduction of advanced modes of governance, market competition, and management are producing significant progress, although from a low base. But long-term success is far from assured as daunting structural bottlenecks stand in the way, not the least of which is the struggle to overcome a long history of debilitating Socialist central planning.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, Markets, Science and Technology, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
683. Does Doctrine Drive Technology or Does Technology Drive Doctrine?
- Author:
- Dennis Blasko
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Within China's overall national strategy, priority goes to national economic development. How this fits with the PLA's needs to modernize and China's overall military strategy is driven by the concept of People's War that emphasizes strategy over technology and may hold some surprises for the United States.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
684. China's Defense Electronics Industry: Innovation, Adaptation, and Espionage
- Author:
- James Mulvenon and Matthew Luce
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Contrary to popular perceptions of China as either "technology thief" or "technology superpower," the success of the Chinese defense electronics sector can be attributed to a combination of indigenous innovation, adaptation of foreign technology, and large-scale technology espionage. Advanced defense electronics components and systems play a key role in this revolution in military capability, making it imperative to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the Chinese defense electronics industry and their implications for U.S. interests in the region.
- Topic:
- Economics, Science and Technology, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
685. The Changing Dynamics Behind China's Rise as a Military Technological Power
- Author:
- Tai Ming Cheung
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- The Minerva project on "The Evolving Relationship Between Technology and National Security in China" held a two-day workshop on the "Military and Geo-Strategic Implications of China's Rise as a Global Technological Power" in Washington, D.C., in November 2010. Presentations were given by academic experts Susan Shirk, Barry Naughton, Tai Ming Cheung and David Meyer (all from UC San Diego), Alice Miller (Stanford University), Bates Gill (Stockholm Peace Research Institute), and Thomas Mahnken (Naval War College). This brief provides a summary of the workshop findings.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Science and Technology, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- China, Washington, and Asia
686. The Slow Death of Japanese Techno-Nationalism? Comparative Lessons for China's Future Defense Production
- Author:
- Christopher W. Hughes
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Japan's defense production model is often seen as a successful exemplar of "techno-nationalism," especially in the integration of the civilian and military sectors. Hence, Japan's model has been considered as offering possible lessons for China to emulate in the reform of its own defense industry. But Japan's defense production model, despite arguable past successes, is now experiencing what is often referred to by Japanese policymakers and industrialists as a "slow death" as its structural development limitations have been increasingly revealed over the past two decades. Japan's defense production model is encountering three major structural limitations: 1. Stagnation in defense budgets and long-term military demand.2. Flawed and failing procurement practices.3. Obstacles to expanded and more diverse international collaboration.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Asia
687. Spin-On for the Renaissance? The Current State of China's Nuclear Industry
- Author:
- Jing-dong Yuan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- China's nuclear industry has undergone rapid growth in recent years and is projected to further expand in the coming decades. Accounting for almost 40 percent of all nuclear reactors either under construction or that have been approved globally, the expansion of China's nuclear capacities has largely been driven by increasing demands for energy to support continued economic growth. Constraints include human resources, fuel supply, and the extent to which China can develop indigenous nuclear power capacities. The role of civil-military integration in this industry is yet to be determined partly as a result of the deliberate decision by Beijing to keep its nuclear weapons segment separate from its civilian operations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
688. Defense Innovation and Industrialization in South Korea
- Author:
- Chung-in Moon and Jae-Ok Paek
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- South Korea's defense industrial transformation has been impressive by any standard. It was able to satisfy most of its basic weapons needs within a decade after launching its defense industry. Since the late 1990s, South Korea has been elevated from a third-tier arms producer to the second tier by moving from the stage of imitation and assembly to that of creative imitation and indigenization. It now competes with major arms-supplying countries. In addition, the South Korean defense industry has made remarkable progress in RMA-related areas mostly involving command, control, communication, intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance. In this policy brief, we first assess South Korea's defense industrial performance by examining the patterns of defense acquisition, rate of localization of defense materiel, and defense exports. We then briefly analyze the evolutionary dynamics of defense industrial upgrades in selected sectors by tracing the stages of innovation. We also delineate a set of institutional and policy arrangements that have contributed to this impressive transformation.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
689. The Current State of European Union-China High-Tech Cooperation
- Author:
- May-Britt U. Stumbaum and Oliver Bräuner
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- In line with the European policy of supporting China\'s economic reform and development, research institutes and companies in the European Union (EU) have been the major sources for high-technology exports to the People\'s Republic of China in the past thirty years. Dual-use technologies ranging from aerospace to semiconductors play a central role for economic development as well as for modern military development, including network-centric warfare. Yet a comprehensive EU paradigm on China\'s military rise and the impact of these technology transfers has not evolved. The EU–China "strategic partnership" is still dominated by economic considerations. Lack of coordination between the national and the European level contribute to the risks accompanying EU–China collaboration in this field. The differences between EU and U.S. perceptions of China\'s military rise provide potential for further Transatlantic discord, as happened during the acrimonious debate on the intended lifting of the EU arms embargo on China in 2004–2005.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
690. Revitalising Papua New Guinea's health system: the need for creative approaches
- Author:
- Katherine Lepani and Julienne McKay
- Publication Date:
- 11-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- There is significant potential for the PNG government to deliver better health services for all Papuan New Guineans. Major health problems are now preventable. Cost-effective options are available to Papua New Guineans to treat malaria, pneumonia, tuberculosis and HIV as well as to reduce infant and maternal mortality. In this Policy Brief Julienne McKay and Dr Katherine Lepani explore how demand-responsive mechanisms (vouchers, micro-health insurance, social franchises and social businesses) can be a compelling addition to strengthening health systems in PNG. The research looks at the potential use of these instruments with a focus on HIV, maternal health, tuberculosis and malaria, and contains policy recommendations for government, the private sector and donors.
- Topic:
- Health and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Guinea
691. Afghanistan, Pakistan and NATO's Strategic Concept
- Author:
- Boyko Noev and Harlan Ullman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen is overseeing the drafting of NATO's latest Strategic Concept, set to replace the current version approved in 1999. Even though only a decade has passed, changes across the globe have been stunning and in some cases revolutionary. For NATO, we believe the challenge of the Strategic Concept is to address the question of whether NATO is still relevant or whether it has become a relic. We strongly believe the former. However, that can no longer be taken for granted. Twenty years after the Soviet Union imploded, the Alliance must finally find a new strategic anchor for its raison d'être or deal with the implications of becoming a relic or an Alliance that may have served its purpose.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Asia
692. Indonesia: The Deepening Impasse in Papua
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The two sentiments that define the political impasse in Papua are frustration on the part of many Papuans that “special autonomy” has meant so little, and exasperation on the part of many Indonesian government officials that Papuans are not satisfied with what they have been given. The gulf between the two might be reduced by dialogue, but any prospect of serious talks is hampered by an un-willingness of Jakarta to treat the problem as essentially a political, rather than an economic one. To move forward, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono needs personally to take the lead in recognising that autonomy means more than increased budgetary allocations or accelerated economic development. He needs to explore directly with credible Papuan leaders how political autonomy can be expanded; affirmative action policies strengthened in all sectors; and Papuan fears about in-migration addressed. Unless these three issues are tackled head on in face-to-face meetings, the impasse is unlikely to be broken and increased radicalisation is likely.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Asia
693. Going Critical: Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Reactor Starts Up
- Author:
- Simon Henderson and Stefanie Peterson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- At a ceremony near the southern Iranian coastal city of Bushehr this Saturday, Russia will begin the process of loading fuel rods into Iran's first civilian nuclear reactor. Theoretically distinct from the rest of the regime's disturbing nuclear program, the Bushehr plant nevertheless remains a major international concern. The low-enriched uranium in the fuel rods would, if diverted, substantially increase Iran's existing stock of the material, which many suspect is already being used to develop nuclear weapons. Even if they were used solely for electricity generation, the rods would eventually produce plutonium-rich residue that could also be reprocessed for use in a weapon. For Iran, the Bushehr event will be a gesture of defiance against U.S.-led international pressure; for Russia, a sign of Moscow's different diplomatic approach to the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran; and for the United States, an exception to the tightening sanctions regime, which officials claim is forcing Tehran to reconsider the wisdom of its policies.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and Moscow
694. Iran's Shadow over Unrest in Bahrain
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- For nearly two weeks, the Persian Gulf island state of Bahrain has experienced near-daily disturbances following government arrests of opposition activists from the majority Shiite community. The timing of the arrests seemed geared toward preempting trouble in advance of the scheduled October 23 parliamentary and municipal elections, which minority Sunni parties and candidates are currently projected to win. The street violence and other incidents are of particular concern to the United States because Bahrain hosts the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet and Naval Forces Central Command, whose mission is to "deter and counter disruptive countries" -- a wording likely aimed at Iran, which claimed the island as its territory prior to 1970.
- Topic:
- Political Violence and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia
695. Managing Land Conflict in Timor-Leste
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Eight years after independence, Timor-Leste is still with- out a legal basis for determining ownership of land. In its absence, the challenges of enforcing property rights have grown more complex and increased the potential for conflict. The politically charged task of sifting through over- lapping claims inherited from the country's two colonial administrations has been complicated by widespread illegal occupation of property after the displacement of over half the population that followed the 1999 referendum. The legal and social uncertainties this created magnified the effects of the country's 2006 crisis, causing further mass displacement in the capital and beyond. Resolution of these uncertainties through new laws, regulations and policies is necessary to reduce conflict, diminish the risk of further instability and to provide a clear way to resolve past and future disputes.
- Topic:
- Environment and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Asia
696. The Making of a Seoul Development: Consensus The essential development agenda for the G20
- Author:
- Jasmine Burnley and Elizabeth Stuart
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- When the G20 meets in Seoul in November 2010, it has a big choice to make. It can either retreat into a narrow focus on its own interests, or it can prove it is capable of genuine global leadership in the face of the interlinked economic, food, and climate change crises. The G20 must adopt a Seoul 'development consensus' that confronts the challenges of the 21st century: reducing inequality and tackling global poverty through sustainable, equitable growth that gives poor women and men, and their governments, the tools they need to overcome poverty.
- Topic:
- Development, Poverty, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Asia, and South Korea
697. Upholding the Responsibility to Protect in Burma/Myanmar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- The situation in Burma/Myanmar remains grave. With elections scheduled for 7 November 2010 international attention on the country has increased. Such attention, and any policy action taken, must focus not only on the goal of democratic transition, and concerns about the regimes nuclear collaboration with North Korea, but also on the plight of Burma's ethnic minorities who continue to suffer atrocities at the hands of the government. These atrocities may rise to the level of crimes against humanity, war crimes and ethnic cleansing – crimes states committed themselves to protect populations from at the 2005 World Summit, as described in the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect policy brief dated 4 March 2010, “Applying the Responsibility to Protect to Burma/Myanmar.”
- Topic:
- Democratization, Genocide, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North Korea, Burma, and Myanmar
698. Examining Pandemic Responses in Asia
- Author:
- Li Hongyan and Ong Suan Ee
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The recent pandemic disease outbreaks which affected many Asian countries underscore the need for appropriate pandemic responses to be developed in order to contain and mitigate the spread of pandemics that emerge in the future. Through an examination of the different responses to SARS and H1N1 in the region, and the effects of those efforts, this NTS Insight seeks to highlight issues which should be considered when developing pandemic response programmes.
- Topic:
- Health, Human Welfare, and Humanitarian Aid
- Political Geography:
- Asia
699. Applying the Responsibility to Protect to Burma/Myanmar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- The Burmese junta, its armed forces known as the “Tatmadaw,” and other armed groups under government control are committing gross human rights violations against ethnic and religious minorities. Extrajudicial killings, torture, and forced labor are prevalent; rape and sexual abuse by the Tatmadaw are rampant; and from August 2008 through July 2009 alone, 75,000 civilians in the east, where armed conflict is ongoing, were forcibly displaced. The Tatmadaw shows a complete disregard for the principle of distinction, intentionally targeting civilians with impunity.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Asia, Burma, and Myanmar
700. Can Asia Learn from Brazil's Agricultural Success?
- Author:
- Paul Teng and Margarita Escaler
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Over the last four decades, Brazil has transformed its agricultural sector to become the first tropical agricultural giant and the first to challenge the dominance of the world's major food exporters. This paper examines the secrets of Brazil's success and ponders whether Asia should try to emulate the Brazilian model to help achieve food security for its people and contribute to an increased level of selfsufficiency in the region.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, International Trade and Finance, and Food
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Brazil, and Latin America