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142. Russian-Algerian cooperation and the 'gas OPEC': What's in the pipeline?
- Author:
- Hakim Darbouche
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's statement to Spain's El País1 that the idea of a 'gas-OPEC' should not a priori be excluded, adds to a series of twists, among which was Vladimir Putin's confirmation on 1 February that the idea of a gas cartel was an 'interesting one' worth considering further. Hitherto, this gas saga featured Russia, Algeria, the EU, NATO and Iran. The story revolves around Russian-Algerian mingling on gas matters, spurring European and Transatlantic concerns over the prospects of a 'gas OPEC'. At a time of increasing European dependence on foreign energy supplies, these developments have been interpreted as being part of a wider effort, led by Russia, to use energy as a lever to undermine European diplomacy. These allegations have been dismissed by Algeria and Russia, whose leaders insist that their cooperation is intended to optimise their benefits and those of their customers alike. This paper examines the underpinnings of these developments by assessing the likelihood of their culmination in a gas cartel and offers an insight into the potential policy choices behind them.
- Topic:
- Economics and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Algeria
143. China and Economic Integration in East Asia: Implications for the United States
- Author:
- C. Fred Bergsten
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- East Asia is clearly, if gradually and unevenly, moving toward regional economic integration. Market forces are leading the process, as firms construct production chains across the area that exploit the comparative advantage of its individual countries. Governments are now moving to build on those forces, and consolidate them, through a series of formal agreements to intensify their economic relationships and start creating an East Asian Community.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
144. Fiscal Policy for Poverty Reduction, Reconstruction, and Growth
- Author:
- Matthew Smith, Alan Roe, and Tony Addison
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- An effective state is able to mobilize revenue and spend it on infrastructure, services, and public goods that both enhance human capital and the well-being of communities (especially the poor), as well as stimulating investment and employment creation by the private sector. An effective state also manages public finance to ensure that macroeconomic balance is maintained—with policy neither too restrictive to discourage private investment and growth, nor too accommodative to create high inflation and crowd out private investment. Fiscal issues are therefore at the heart of the state's role in the development process and failure in this policy area—whether it is in taxation, public expenditures, or in managing the fiscal deficit and public debt—can quickly undermine growth and poverty reduction. Fiscal weakness can also be fatal to social peace when one or more ethnic, religious, or regional groups are taxed unfairly—or receives too little in the allocation of public spending.
- Topic:
- Debt, Development, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Asia
145. China and the Depreciating U.S. Dollar
- Author:
- Richard C. K. Burdekin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Over the past five years, U.S. exports to China have been dwarfed by imports from that country, with the resulting trade deficit igniting a bout of China bashing reminiscent of the Japan bashing of the 1980s. A major culprit in the trade imbalance, according to many U.S. analysts and policymakers, is China's currency: the renminbi, they say, is too cheap relative to the dollar. Some are calling for high tariffs on Chinese goods or for further exchange-rate adjustment that would revalue the renminbi significantly upward, making Chinese goods less competitive. But with just 10.4 percent of total U.S. trade attributed to China in the first half of 2005, it is unrealistic that any renminbi exchange-rate adjustment could rein in the burgeoning U.S. trade deficit. And if the adjustment were drastic the United States could be the big loser: driving China out of the market for U.S. treasuries would most likely have calamitous consequences, not only for the dollar but for U.S. credit markets and for the U.S. economy in general.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and North America
146. Strategic Partnership or Strategic Competition
- Author:
- Bonnie Glaser and James Nolt
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- As part of our China Focus, we asked two leading scholars to reflect on the tensions and possibilities in U.S.-China relations. Bonnie Glaser is a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. James Nolt is a senior fellow at the World Policy Institute. We asked them first about the potential for a strategic security partnership between the United States and China, then about their economic relationship.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
147. Untangling China's Quest for Oil through State-backed Financial Deals
- Author:
- Erica Downs and Peter C. Evans
- Publication Date:
- 05-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The efforts of China's national oil companies to secure upstream oil assets abroad have attracted attention from U.S. officials and policymakers. Congress has taken notice, as indicated by the request of the Chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Resources Committee Richard W. Pombo—triggered by the bid made by China National Offshore Oil Corporation Ltd. for Unocal in 2005—for a study by the Department of Energy of the economic and national security implications of China's energy demand. The report, released in February 2006, concludes that the foreign investments of China's national oil companies do not pose an economic challenge to the U.S. However, one issue the report mentions only in passing that merits further attention is how the Chinese government's financial support for some of these investments can undermine an open and competitive world oil market.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
148. China's Social Unrest: The Story Behind the Stories
- Author:
- Albert Kiedel
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- China is confronting widespread violent and even deadly social unrest, raising Communist Party alarms about national security. Some observers speculate that unrest could undermine China's national leadership, as it did in the Ukraine and the Philippines. Some U.S. policy makers might welcome unrest in China as a path to democracy and “freedom.” But rather than an opportunity to transform China's political order, China's social unrest should be understood as the unavoidable side effects—worsened by local corruption—of successful market reforms and expanded economic and social choice. Managing this unrest humanely requires accelerated reform of legal and social institutions with special attention to corruption. More violence would generate more suffering, potentially destabilizing East Asia and harming U.S. interests. The United States should encourage China to strengthen its social reconciliation capabilities, without making electoral political reform a prerequisite for intensifying engagement across the board.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Ukraine, East Asia, and Asia
149. Economic Survey of the Russian Federation, 2006
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- The Russian economy has been enjoying a period of robust growth, thanks largely to steadily rising terms of trade. The challenge confronting policy-makers is to facilitate Russia's transition into a period of self-sustaining, investment- and innovation-led growth. This will require a sound macroeconomic policy framework to manage the economy's adjustment to sustained high oil prices and a range of structural reforms aimed at creating better framework conditions for business.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
150. China: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- In December 2004 China's top political leadership agreed to fundamentally alter the country's growth strategy. In place of investment and export-led development, they endorsed transitioning to a growth path that relied more on expanding domestic consumption. Since 2004, China's top leadership, most notably Premier Wen Jiaobao in his speech to the National People's Congress in the spring of 2006, has reiterated the goal of strengthening domestic consumption as a major source of economic growth. This policy brief examines the reasons underlying the leadership decision, the implications of this transition for the United States and the global economy, and the steps that have been taken to embark on the new growth path.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
151. Negotiating the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement
- Author:
- Jeffrey J. Schott, Scott C. Bradford, and Thomas Moll
- Publication Date:
- 06-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Five years ago the Institute published Free Trade between Korea and the United States? by Inbom Choi and Jeffrey J. Schott, which analyzed the potential benefits and costs of pursuing a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA). At the time, neither government had vetted the idea in bilateral consultations, though some business groups in each country—and some members of the US Congress—had voiced support for deepening US-Korea economic ties through an FTA.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, and Korea
152. The Doha Round after Hong Kong
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Trade ministers from member countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO) convened in Hong Kong in December 2005 to jump-start the flagging Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. The Hong Kong ministerial was not a complete bust. But ministers accomplished only the minimum necessary to keep the Doha Round moving forward—toward an undetermined and probably distant conclusion.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Asia
153. What Could Go Wrong?
- Author:
- Harry Harding
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- China has done remarkably well in its development over the last twenty-five years. It has achieved and sustained high rates of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. It has achieved a significant place in the international economy. It is widely regarded as a major power, not only in Asia but also increasingly on a global stage. Looking ahead, however, things could go wrong – possibly quite seriously wrong – for China, and if China experiences serious problems, its size and its expanded role in the world mean that there could be serious consequences for the broader international community as well.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
154. China Succeeding Beyond Expectations
- Author:
- Albert Kiedel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- What are the implications if China sustains nine-percent growth through 2010? This is the basic question posed by conference organizers. The relevant time frame is what matters most. If China merely maintains nine-percent growth until the year 2010, the implications are not great. Too much is left unknown about what comes after 2010. Even with nine-percent growth over the next five years, China in 2010 will still be at a relatively low level of performance, both overall and in per-capita terms. But if sustaining nine-percent growth to 2010 means that China has launched on-going reforms that will continue to engineer institutional changes needed for a market economy's successful commercial and political management, then the resulting successful development trajectory in the rest of the century will generate profound and, from today's perspective, unexpected consequences.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
155. Comments on China as a Regional Player
- Author:
- Edward J. Lincoln
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- China ought to be able to produce a relatively high economic growth rate over at least the next decade. There are a number of problems confronting the economy, but one of the great lessons of the past half-century of world economic growth is how much growth can result even when economies have considerable institutional flaws. Economists usually speak about the need to get the “fundamentals” right to produce economic growth, but we should also keep in mind that nations need not get have a perfect set of institutions and rules to generate growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
156. Taiwan In Search of a Strategic Consensus
- Author:
- Banning Garrett, Franklin Kramer, and Jonathan M. Adams
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- At the beginning of 2006, Taiwan is confronted with difficult choices that it currently seems unprepared to face. Cross-Strait tensions have diminished in the last year and Taiwan's economy has grown at an annualized rate of about 3.6 percent, which is respectable if not robust by East Asian standards. Taiwan, however, also faces an East Asian future which likely includes an increasingly important role for its relations with the Mainland as China becomes an ever more important economic and political factor regionally and globally.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, East Asia, and Asia
157. Banking Crises in East Asia: The Price Tag of Liberalization?
- Author:
- Ilan Noy
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The banking crises that swept through East Asia in 1997– 1998 set off dramatic recessions in the affected countries and imposed heavy costs on the domestic taxpayers. Fear of further crises prompted searches causes and early warning signs. It soon became apparent that liberalization the domestic financial sectors of the countries in crises contributed to genesis of these crises, but policymakers, regulators, and economists disagree about the reason for this. Initial scrutiny fell on unregulated international capital flows, but a comprehensive study suggests that liberalization can to financial instability either because of insufficient regulation of the financial sector or because of erosion of previously granted monopolies of existing banks. These possibilities suggest varying policy implications for the current state domestic financial systems in East Asia, including the challenges inherent opening up ChinaÂ's banking system to foreign competition as mandated in China–World Trade Organization accession agreement.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Israel and Asia
158. Reading Russia Right
- Author:
- Dmitri V. Trenin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- After the fall of Communism, Russia reverted to czarism. But more importantly, Russia embraced capitalism. Although not democratic, Russia is largely free. Property rights are more deeply anchored than they were five years ago, and the once-collectivist society is going private. Indeed, private consumption is the main driver of economic growth. Russia's future now depends heavily on how fast a middle class—a self-identified group with personal stakes in having a law-based government accountable to tax payers—can be created. The West needs to take the long view, stay engaged, and maximize contacts, especially with younger Russians.
- Topic:
- Economics and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
159. China's Currency: Not the Problem
- Author:
- Albert Keidel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In Washington, politicians and pundits have settled on a single magical solution for the country's economic ills: getting China to revalue its currency, the RMB. By any reasonable economic measure, however, the RMB is not undervalued. China does have a trade surplus with the United States, but it has a trade deficit with the rest of the world. And China's accumulation of dollar reserves is not the result of trade surpluses, but of large investment inflows caused in part by speculators' betting that China will yield to U.S. pressure. Focusing on China's currency is a distraction. If the United States wants to improve its economy for the long haul, it had best look elsewhere beginning with raising the productivity of American workers.
- Topic:
- Economics and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, Washington, and Asia
160. A Better Way to Support Middle East Reform
- Author:
- Thomas Carothers
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), an important component of the Bush administration's policy of promoting Middle East reform, is falling short. MEPI should be relaunched as a private foundation funded by the government, akin to the Asia Foundation or the Eurasia Foundation. Such a relaunch would permit MEPI to develop greater expertise in the region, use more flexible, effective aid methods, and gain some independence from other U.S. programs and policies that serve conflicting ends. The restructuring of MEPI should be part of a broader set of measures to establish a more visible, coherent institutional policy structure to pursue the critical goal of fundamental political and economic change in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eurasia, Middle East, and Asia