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2. Tensions in Jerusalem: Initial Commentaries by Mitvim Institute Experts
- Author:
- Lior Lehrs, Nimrod Goren, Ido Zelkovitz, Nadav Tamir, and Merav Kahana-Dagan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- The latest events in Jerusalem – at Muslim holy sites, the Damascus Gate and the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood – have brought tensions in the city to new heights and affect Israel’s relationship with the Palestinians and Arab states. This document compiles initial commentaries by Mitvim Institute experts. Dr. Lior Lehrs explains that restoring calm in Jerusalem requires dealing with structural problems and foresees a role for President Biden in such a process; Former MK Ksenia Svetlova argues that the violence stems from government neglect and could exacerbate tensions with Jordan; Dr. Nimrod Goren argues that the escalation in Jerusalem should convince the political left to demand diplomatic portfolios in the emerging government; Dr. Ido Zelkovitz believes that the Palestinian Authority and Hamas are supporting the Jerusalem protests and that Hamas hopes to emerge from them with the upper hand; Former diplomat Nadav Tamir points to violations of human rights and the status quo as the cause of the current round of violence.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Human Rights, Displacement, Violence, Hamas, and PLO
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, and Arab Countries
3. Arab Youth Futures: No Lost Generation
- Author:
- Florence Gaub
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Young Arabs (those aged between 15 and 35) are often seen as a generation beset by hopelessness, stuck between dreams of emigration and the reality of violence and unemployment. This impression does not come out of nowhere: the last decade took a heavy toll on this generation – it was during their childhood and adolescence, between 2013 and 2019, that the region suffered the highest number of terrorism casualties, that three wars interrupted the education of 13 million children and that riots and repression led to economic losses of $600 billion following the Arab Spring. But how much does this generation feel that they can change matters and create a better future? Answering this question was the main objective of a survey co-organised by the EUISS, the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Arab Research and Advocacy Bureau. Conducted in Egypt, Libya, Morocco and the West Bank of the Palestinian Territories between January and April 2021, the survey was based on qualitative focus-group discussions and interviews with young urban dwellers, allowing for a deeper understanding of how this generation truly feels about the future. The selected countries were chosen because access to them was most feasible in terms of financial resources and political stability. The survey asked about a sense of agency – the feeling of mastering one’s own fate–, about the respondents’ general disposition towards the future – whether characterised by optimism or pessimism – and about their key grievances. The results belie the perception that young people in the region have a negative vision of the future, instead highlighting a determination to live more independent autonomous lives, a relative optimism (unusual in younger generations – optimism is normally a feature of older age groups), and concerns over issues that will be of particular importance in their future, such as healthcare and political representation. This shift in attitudes towards the future may be ascribed to a combination of several factors: longer life cycles, education, digital connectivity, the Arab Spring and its aftershocks have all spawned a generation that want to be in charge of their own lives rather than passive spectators of events beyond their control. This means that regional governments, and Europeans wishing to assist them, will have to provide the space and opportunity for this generation to realise their ambitions. The Brief first analyses the survey findings on agency and optimism, then takes a look at the most important grievances, and concludes with policy implications.
- Topic:
- Government, Youth, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, and North Africa
4. The New Arab Uprisings: How the 2019 trajectory differs from the 2011 legacy? (Part 1)
- Author:
- Peter Bartu
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- In 2019,the Middle East seems beset by conflict, chaotic politics and dysfunctional economies.However, the mood of the people in Algeria,Sudan,Lebanon and Iraq is more defiant.Not since 2011 have we seen such public demonstrations for accountability and an end to corruption,war and foreign meddling.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, Arab Spring, Conflict, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Sudan, Middle East, Algeria, Arab Countries, and Lebanon
5. Recommendations for Israel’s New Foreign Minister: Initial Policy Messages
- Author:
- Nimrod Goren, Merav Kahana-Dagan, Roee Kibrik, Lior Lehrs, Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, and Ksenia Svetlova
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
- Abstract:
- srael’s new foreign minister should lead a process of fixing Israel’s foreign policy. This paper presents recommendations for messages he can convey and actions he can take to improve Israel’s regional relations with Arab states, the Palestinians and Europe. It is based on deliberations by a Mitvim Institute task team.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Jordan
6. Arab Media Reactions to U.S. Protests: How Regional Considerations Shape Media Coverage
- Author:
- Mohamed Abdelaziz and Shaina Katz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Aglobalized world has meant that international media reactions to a policeman’s brutal killing of George Floyd, an unarmed black man, and the subsequent protests have been swift and comprehensive. Responses within the Arab media have shifted between attempts to explain to readers sociological fault lines and structural racism in the United States and pointed takes on what these protests might mean for the upcoming election—with the underlying question of what it might mean for the region. From a political perspective, images of protests are also shaped by the Arab governments’ responses to the Arab spring, when pro-democracy protests were crushed in many Arab states. Notably, and in contrast to media responses, there has been a shortage of statements from government officials, with Palestinian officials being the exception. While this silence can in part be attributed to the fact that the current protests in the United States are purely a domestic issue, it is also important to note that numerous state-aligned media outlets have offered characteristic viewpoints of their respective countries, suggesting an interest in indirect messaging on the protests without explicit comment.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Public Opinion, Media, News Analysis, Protests, Police, and Racism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, North America, and United States of America
7. The case for a Euro-Arab summit
- Author:
- James Moran
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The EU holds regular summit meetings with key partner countries such as the US, China and India and with various regions, notably Africa, Latin America and Asia. But there is one major region that has been conspicuous by its absence from the summit agenda. I refer, of course, to the Arab world, which is an odd omission to say the least, given the host of common challenges that preoccupy both the EU and this region. For years, a number of EU member states, and virtually all those on the Arab side, have pushed for such a meeting, or at least did not obstruct it, but it was only last December at the EU-Arab League Foreign Ministers’ Cairo meeting that a consensus in favour of a summit was found, and a commitment made to “work towards” it. Since then, the idea has been endorsed by the LAS (League of Arab States) annual summit, and there have been some working-level exchanges, with a date sometime next year in mind. But preparations have yet to get underway. Without greater impetus now, there is little chance of it taking place in 2018, given the lead time needed to ensure that the 50 countries involved (28 plus institutions on the EU side and the 22 Arab League member states) are properly represented at Head of State and/or Government level. Why the delay? Clearly, new schisms have appeared in recent months on the Arab side, namely the crisis over Qatar, which affects both the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries and most of the rest of the LAS, which is split on the Saudi-led initiative to isolate Doha. There may also be some doubts on the EU side about the prospects for a good turnout, given ‘summit fatigue’ and domestic distractions such as Brexit. And it certainly won’t be easy for either side to come up with meaningful political messages on the most important issues, and there is a risk that it will degenerate into a talking shop, albeit an elevated one.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Arab Countries
8. Syria Crisis Fair Share Analysis 2016
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- The number of people in need as a result of the conflict in Syria continues to rise, but the international aid response has failed to keep up. The donor conference in London on 4 February 2016 is another opportunity to reverse that trend and put Syrian civilians first. Oxfam is calling for rich states to commit to fully funding this year’s Syria crisis response appeal and to resettle 10 percent of all registered Syrian refugees by the end of 2016. Oxfam has developed indicators to determine the fair level of commitment that each wealthy country should make to the appeals in 2016 to alleviate the suffering of those affected by the Syria crisis.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and Syria
9. An Intensified Approach to Combatting the Islamic State
- Author:
- Michele Flournoy and Richard Fontaine
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- In the 11 months since President Barack Obama committed the United States to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), the group has expanded its international reach, metastasized to form offshoots across multiple regions, and increased its perceived momentum. Although U.S. government officials cite a reduction in the overall size of the group’s sanctuary in Iraq and Syria and the killing of thousands of ISIS fighters, the fall of Ramadi and much of Anbar province to the Islamic State served as a wakeup call that current efforts to counter ISIS are not adequate to the task.2 Meanwhile, the threat posed by the terrorist group to Americans at home and abroad appears to be growing as ISIS-inspired individuals conduct attacks targeting Westerners around the globe, including here in the United States.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
10. Our Country, Our Peace: Why women must be included in Yemen's peace process
- Author:
- Shaheen Chughtai and Scott Paul
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- The Yemen conflict has had a catastrophic effect on its people, with specific impacts on already-vulnerable women and girls. But political talks about Yemen’s future have almost exclusively been conducted by male politicians and combatants. This contrasts with the 2011 uprising, when women helped set Yemen on a path towards political reform. However, the 2011 peace initiative which followed the uprising lacked inclusivity and proved to be unsustainable. The forthcoming talks about Yemen’s future must not repeat these flaws. Ensuring women have a meaningful voice in the peace process increases the likelihood that its outcomes benefit the majority of Yemenis and enjoy their support.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Government, Politics, Political Activism, Reform, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Arab Countries
11. Arab League Summit Report
- Author:
- Omar Sheira and Muhammed Ammash
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- The 26th Arab League Summit, held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, came amidst a series of divisive crises in the Middle East and North African region: in Yemen, a Saudi Arabian-led coalition initiated a campaign of airstrikes to counter the advance of the Houthi rebellion; in Libya, a multiparty civil war continues between rival governments and Islamist-oriented groups; in Syria, the civil war enters its fifth year, prolonging the conflict and adding more parties; and in Iraq, the government leads an offensive against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), to regain territory which was seized by the group in the Summer of 2014. Meanwhile, Iran also has an alleged role in the crises in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, which was referenced during the Summit. In addition to these issues, the agenda of the Arab League Summit also aimed to monitor the implementation of past recommendations, express support for Palestine and Somalia, and discuss ways to combat extremist groups.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, and Arab Countries
12. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State's Hostage Strategy
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The still-unresolved hostage situation involving Jordan, Japan, and the Islamic State is unlike any of the group's previous kidnappings Jordan is in a precarious position, as it seeks the release of one of its citizens-a national hero who comes from a prominent tribe-while not wanting to free one of the perpetrators of the worst terrorist attack in the country's history By demanding the release of failed suicide-bomber Sajida al-Rishawi from Jordanian custody, the Islamic State is trying to elevate itself to the status of negotiating nation-state, and weaken and embarrass a vital member of the coalition seeking its destruction In a striking difference with previous Islamic State hostage situations, current circumstances provide a chance for the group to bolster its standing in the vital Iraqi province of al-Anbar-where al-Rishawi is from-and perhaps slightly lessen tribal pressure on the group The issue is causing tensions between the Iraqi-born leadership of the Islamic State, who want to make the exchange, and a small faction of primarily Saudi fighters, who want to execute the Jordanian pilot for bombing the group.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Jordan
13. Tunisia: The Last Arab Spring Country
- Author:
- Mohsin Khan and Karim Merzan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet, a civil society group comprising the Tunisian General Labor Union; the Tunisian Union of Industry, Trade, and Handicrafts; the Tunisian Human Rights League; and the Tunisian Order of Lawyers the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday, October 9, 2015 "for its decisive contribution to the building of a pluralistic democracy in Tunisia." In a new Atlantic Council Issue Brief, "Tunisia: The Last Arab Spring Country," Atlantic Council Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Senior Fellows Mohsin Khan and Karim Mezran survey the successes of Tunisia's consensus-based transition and the challenges that lie ahead. "The decision to award this year's Nobel Peace Prize to Tunisia's National Dialogue Quartet is an extremely important recognition of the efforts made by Tunisian civil society and Tunisia's political elite to reach a consensus on keeping the country firmly on the path to democratization and transition to a pluralist system," says Mezran. With the overthrow of the authoritarian regime of President Zine El Abedine Ben Ali in 2011, Tunisia embarked on a process of democratization widely regarded as an example for transitions in the region. The National Dialogue Conference facilitated by the Quartet helped Tunisia avert the risk of plunging into civil war and paved the way for a consensus agreement on Tunisia's new constitution, adopted in January 2014. In the brief, the authors warn that despite political successes, Tunisia is hampered by the absence of economic reforms. Facing the loss of tourism and investment following two terror attacks, Tunisia's economy risks collapse, endangering all of the painstaking political progress gained thus far. Unless the Tunisian government moves rapidly to turn the economy around, Tunisia risks unraveling its fragile transition.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Economics, Political Activism, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and Tunisia
14. Tunisia's New Constitutional Court
- Author:
- Duncan Pickard
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Abstract:
- January 2014 became a milestone of Arab democracy when Tunisia adopted the first democratic Arab constitution drafted outside the influence of the military or a foreign power. In "Tunisia's New Constitutional Court," Duncan Pickard, a Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, takes up the next step for the country's democracy: developing a functioning Constitutional Court. He introduces the court's structures, outlines the various challenges that the new parliament will face in drafting a law to officially establish the court, and details policy options for the United States and Europe to support Tunisia's nascent democracy.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Politics, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and Tunisia
15. Regional Security through Inclusive Reform in the Maghreb and the Sahel
- Author:
- Querine Hanlon and Joyce Kasee
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Throughout the Maghreb and the Sahel, governments are struggling to manage a security environment fundamentally transformed by the Arab Spring. Within this region, the efforts of governments to secure their territories and civil society organizations to create accountable and transparent security institutions have proceeded almost wholly divorced from each other. This Peace Brief shares key insights from the engagement between official and civil society actors both within and across borders to address these gaps, makes the case for working regionally to address the twin challenges of security and reform, and highlights how community-security partnerships offer one approach to advancing the region’s security and reform agenda.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Islam, Terrorism, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and North Africa
16. Religion and Secularism in the Middle East: A Primer
- Author:
- Aaron Rock-Singer
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Religion was a pillar of pre-modern political identity in the Middle East, arising out of Muslims’ understanding of Islam’s foundational moment and state institutions that developed with the spread of Islamic Empire. Beginning at the turn of the 19th century, European colonial powers and indigenous reformers questioned the centrality of religious identity; instead, it was to be the nation that defined the political community. Since then, the nationalist project has permeated 20th century ideological conflicts in the region, equally shaping the claims of secularists and Islamists. Today, advocates of religious change refer back to early Islamic history as they seek to place religious over national identity, yet they, like their competitors, are unmistakably shaped by the secular nationalist project.
- Topic:
- Islam, Nationalism, Post Colonialism, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
17. Religious Minorities in the Modern Middle East
- Author:
- Lev Weitz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The majority of the Middle East’s population today is Muslim, as it has been for centuries. However, as the place of origin of a range of world religions – including Judaism, Christianity, Zoroastrianism, and many lesser-known faiths – it remains a region of remarkable religious diversity. This article considers the place of religious minorities in the modern Middle East from three angles: their distinctive religious and communal identities, their place in the major transformations of the region’s political landscape from the nineteenth century to the post-World War I era, and the challenges of contemporary political conditions.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Islam, Religion, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
18. What Are the Prospects for Success of the Peace Talks on Syria?
- Author:
- Tiziana Trotta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The United Nations Peace Conference on Syria is due to take place on 22nd January in Geneva. The Syrian Government and opposition will meet for the first time since the outbreak of the conflict in March 2011. Nevertheless, there are very few prospects of finding a satisfactory solution to end the conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Islam, and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
19. TSG IntelBrief: Lack of Trust Hinders Second Sunni Awakening
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- Coalition airstrikes are intended to blunt the momentum of the self-declared Islamic State (IS) and provide time for a popular Sunni uprising that might never happen given the understandable lack of trust among all sides The Sunni Awakening that helped diminish the precursor group to IS in 2006-2009 is the successful outlier in Iraq's history of tragic uprisings; and it will not likely be replicated since the conditions that allowed it to succeed no longer exist To that end, one of the foundational assumptions of the effort to dismantle IS-that the Sunni tribes will soon rise up and oppose IS in a second Awakening-is built on uncertain ground Sunni tribal leaders realize there won't be anything near 2007-levels of support (material, financial, training) if they oppose IS en masse, and after gaining next to nothing politically after the first Awakening, there is no trust in a different outcome for any second Awakening Reports of a failed Sunni uprising in eastern Syria are additional disincentives for both Syrian and Iraqi Sunni populations to fight IS, and additional incentive to wait and see what external factors will emerge to change the status quo.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
20. TSG IntelBrief: The Fight the Islamic State Really Wants: Iraqi Shi'a
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- With apparent heavy losses in Kobani, Syria, the so-called Islamic State (IS) is stepping up efforts to ignite the one fight it wants above all: a full sectarian war with Iraq's Shi'a population IS will likely accept serious losses, as long as it can claim to be the Sunni extremist vanguard in the fight against the Shi'a; this means the group will focus on high-profile and high-casualty attacks against Shi'a symbols and populations With the February 2006 bombing the 'Golden Mosque' in Samarra, Abu Mus'ab al-Zarqawi finally got the fight he was looking for against the Shi'a and in doing so moved the IS precursor group AQI further up the list of the most feared and capable Iraqi extremist groups The new government of Prime Minister Haydar al-Abadi will be pressured to overreact to IS attacks and to let loose the Shi'a militia that battled with both Sunni extremists and innocents alike eight years ago; a heavy-handed sectarian response will be a disaster for the country, even if it is asking a great deal for those being attacked to show restraint.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries
21. TSG IntelBrief: Jordan and the War Next Door
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- In neighboring Iraq, over 1,100 Jordanians are believed to be fighting for the so-called Islamic State (IS) according to Jordanian former Prime Minister Maruf al-Bakhit, with another 200 having already died fighting Although that's only 0.0203% of Jordan's 6.4 million population, and enough for serious concern, it's testament to Jordanian society that with the constant fighting next door such a small percentage have taken up arms for IS After the 2005 Amman bombings, al Qaeda in Iraq (the precursor to IS) was widely despised in Jordan; now nine years later, over a thousand Jordanians are fighting for the same group In his October 18, 2014 remarks, Bakhit stated that there were between 2,000-4,000 Jordanians who adhere to the violent takfiri ideology most famously espoused by the late Jordanian Abu Mus'ab al Zarqawi Along with the fear of a radicalized population after a decade of war raging across two of its borders is the fear of what happens next in Iraq and Syria According to Bakhit, a partitioned Iraq is too problematic to work despite its obvious appeal amid the current fighting, with resources unevenly distributed across the country and Baghdad far too mixed for one side to claim.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
22. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State and the Divided Opposition
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- The self-declared Islamic State (IS)'s strategy of exploiting and exacerbating divisions among its opponents ranks as one of its greatest weapons, and one of the coalition's greatest weaknesses Turkey's airstrikes against the Kurdistan Workers' Party in southeast Turkey are the latest example-and perhaps most damaging in the near-term-of opponents of IS fighting each other instead of the group IS was sustained during its weakest period (2008-2010) in part by exploiting real tensions between various groups-Sunni vs Shi'a, Sunni vs Sunni, Sunni vs Kurd, etc-that prevented an "everybody vs IS" opposition that remains the only way to defeat the group IS will continue to create/exacerbate/leverage the differences between the US and Turkey, Saudi Arabia/UAE and Qatar, the Kurds and various parties, so much so that focus is more on tactically keeping the coalition together and less on strategically strangling IS.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan
23. Walking a Thin Line: The Role of Think Tanks in Arab Transitions and Foreign Support
- Author:
- Pol Morillas
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- This policy brief reflects upon the results of the workshop “Rethinking the Role of Think Tanks and Research Institutes and EU Policies towards the Mediterranean”, held in Madrid on 14th December 2012 and organised in collaboration with Real Instituto Elcano and FRIDE. It argues that Arab think tanks can shape political transformations in the region by informing, convening and advocating democratic reform. It also presents a set of recommendations for external powers such as the European Union in support of Arab think tanks.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Education, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries
24. Elections in Libya
- Author:
- George Joffé
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The election of a new national assembly in Libya is good news in several respects after a decidedly difficult transition from the elation that accompanied the collapse of the Gaddafi regime last October to the realities of reconstructing the Libyan state. Perphaps the first piece of good news is the simple fact that it actually took place and did so in a relatively peaceful atmosphere. Secondly, the electoral process has been judged by outside observers to have been free and fair. And, finally, the outcome seems to have been a victory for moderation, rather than an outright win for Libya's Islamist movements - unlike the situation elsewhere.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and North Africa
25. What Can Arab Countries Learn From Post-communist Transition?
- Author:
- Marek Dabrowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
- Abstract:
- More than a year has passed since the beginning of the political uprising against the authoritarian regimes in the Arab world. But, as demonstrated by the recent dramatic developments in Syria, the process is far from over. Meanwhile nations which have already freed themselves from their authoritarian rulers (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen), must decide where to go and how to manage their political and economic changes. To a lesser extent, a similar challenge is being faced by those constitutional monarchies (like Morocco or Jordan) which accelerated reforms in order to avoid political destabilization. Many politicians and experts, especially those from Central and Eastern Europe, suggest their Arab colleagues learn from the experience of the postcommunist transition of the early 1990s. However, while learning from others is always a useful exercise, the geopolitical and socio-economic context of the Arab revolution seems to be different, in many respects, from that of former Soviet bloc countries more than twenty years ago.
- Topic:
- Development, Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, and Post-Soviet Space
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Arab Countries
26. Spillovers from the Arab Revolts: Is Armenia next in line?
- Author:
- Hrant Kostanyan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The recent cycle of revolutions in Arab countries has caught policy-makers and experts off guard. The decades-long kleptocracy, systemic corruption, economic stagnation and censorship are merely some of named causes accounting for the shake-up of the old order in Europe's Southern Neighbourhood. The choices that citizens were deprived of making through the ballot box have been accomplished by taking to the streets. Policymakers and analysts are contemplating the possible scenarios for the countries that have finally brought down their dictators. EU leaders are debating support they can provide to help in the establishment of 'good governance.' Meanwhile questions are being asked about the possible implications of the successful revolutions beyond the Arab world and especially for the EU's Eastern neighbours. In his recent speech, the President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, stated: “Although recent developments concentrated our political attention to the South, we certainly cannot afford to forget about the Union's Eastern neighbourhood.”
- Topic:
- Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Caucasus, Arab Countries, and Armenia
27. The Gulf States and Syria
- Author:
- Emile Hokayem
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The unrest in Syria offers the Gulf States an opportunity to weaken or even dislodge an Assad regime aligned with Iran, but their ability to project power or shape events in Syria is limited. Dislike of the Assad regime doesn't necessarily align Gulf interests and long-term vision for Syria. Moreover, cooperation on diplomacy and strategy is lacking. Sectarianism, most evidenced in media commentary and clerical statements, is already a major feature of Gulf discourse on Syria. Parts of the Syrian opposition have approached and have been courted by Gulf governments. Still, a degree of unease and mistrust continues to define their relations.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria
28. Watching from the Sidelines: Israel and the Syrian Uprising
- Author:
- Ehud Eiran
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Israel has been generally quiet regarding the recent turmoil in Syria, a reflection of the issue\'s relative low priority, as well as Israel\'s limited influence on internal Syrian matters. Israel\'s preferred outcome would be a stable Syrian regime that disassociates itself from the “axis of resistance,” poses no bilateral threats, and controls the border area—though Israel sees no clear path for achieving these aims. The view in Israel is that the basic structure of deterrence still holds vis-à-vis Syria and the regime—even in its desperate circumstances—is unlikely to provoke Israel in dramatic ways.
- Topic:
- Security and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Syria
29. Uncharted Waters: Thinking Through Syria's Dynamics
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Syrian crisis may or may not have entered its final phase, but it undoubtedly has entered its most dangerous one to date. The current stage is defined by an explosive mix of heightened strategic stakes tying into a regional and wider international competition on the one hand and emotionally charged attitudes, communal polarisation and political wishful thinking on the other. As dynamics in both Syria and the broader international arena turn squarely against the regime, reactions are ranging from hysterical defiance on the part of its supporters, optimism among protesters that a bloody stalemate finally might end and fears of sectarian retribution or even civil war shared by many, through to triumphalism among those who view the crisis as an historic opportunity to decisively tilt the regional balance of power.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Syria
30. Debt Relief for Egypt?
- Author:
- John Williamson and Mohsin S. Khan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The current government of Egypt has frequently stated that external financial assistance is necessary in the present economic situation and has expressed a strong preference for receiving it in part via debt relief. The question asked in this policy brief is whether there is a case for debt relief and if so what form this relief should take. This policy brief reviews a number of cases in which debt relief has been granted to draw out the lessons and implications for Egypt.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, Arab Countries, North Africa, and Egypt
31. The 'right' Mobility Partnership between the European Union, Morocco and Tunisia
- Author:
- Anne Sofie Westh Olsen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The Mobility Partnerships between the EU and third countries do not primarily focus on migrants' rights. This is an attempt to show what the partnerships with Morocco and Tunisia should look like from a migrant's perspective.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Labor Issues, and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Arab Countries, North Africa, and Tunisia
32. Slippery Slope: Libya and the Lessons of Previous No-Fly Zones
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Twenty years ago, at the close of the 1991 Gulf War, the imposition of a UN-mandated no-fly zone contributed to the formation of a safe haven for Iraqi Kurds, resulting in the liberation of nearly three million people from Baathist dictatorship a full decade before the rest of Iraq. In 1992, new UN-mandated no-fly and no-drive zones were established in southern Iraq and the Balkans to contain rogue regimes and protect civilians from government repression. Given the current developments in Libya, it is natural to consider employing such options once again. Yet history shows that exclusion zones are particularly tricky operations. If not configured properly, they can be worse than useless, signaling fecklessness instead of resolve while providing little real protective value to civilians.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Activism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, United Nations, Balkans, and North Africa
33. Fighting in Libya: The Military Balance
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The uprising in Libya has evolved into a significant military struggle. The Qadhafi regime and, to a lesser extent, its opponents are employing substantial levels of violence, including the use of heavy weapons. Thousands have been killed and wounded.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, and North Africa
34. Israel's Strategic Concerns over Upheaval in Egypt
- Author:
- Michael Herzog
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt caught Israel by surprise. Awe-inspiring as they are to Israel's government and people, these revolutions and the ongoing troubles in Bahrain and Libya are also of immense concern to Israel because of their potential strategic ramifications. Going forward, developments in Egypt will be particularly important given Cairo's traditional role in the region and the special nature of its diplomatic, security, and economic relations with Israel.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Tunisia
35. Saudi Arabia's Fears for Bahrain
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On February 16, Bahraini security forces used brute force to clear democracy protestors from Manama's Pearl Square, on orders from a regime seemingly undaunted by international media coverage and the near-instantaneous self-reporting of Twitter-generation demonstrators. Although the relatively small size of the crowds (compared to recent protests in Egypt and Tunisia) facilitated the crackdown, the action is best explained by the regime's long-held mindset regarding dissent. Specifically, the Bahraini ruling elite believe that any political challenge by the island's Shiite majority must be quickly suppressed -- a view backed by the royal family in neighboring Saudi Arabia and violently enforced in Bahrain despite significant Sunni participation in the protests. This Saudi factor, and the looming presence of Iran across the Persian Gulf, elevates the Bahrain crisis to a U.S. policy challenge on par with events in Egypt.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Activism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Island, and Tunisia
36. 'The Last Bullet': Qadhafi and the Future of Libya
- Author:
- Simon Henderson and David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Following this weekend's widespread disturbances in Libya, Muammar Qadhafi could lose power within hours or days as his military units and security services crumble in the face of popular discontent. Alternatively, he could decide -- in the ominous words of his son Saif al-Islam -- to "fight to the last bullet," which suggests even more horrific levels of violence and anarchy. In a rambling television broadcast today, February 22, the colonel pledged to "die as a martyr."
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, and North Africa
37. Gaza: The Next Israeli-Palestinian War?
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Will the next Middle East conflagration involve Israelis and Palestinians? After the serious escalation of the past week in which eight Gazans, including children, were killed in a single day, and the 23 March 2011 bombing in Jerusalem, that took the life of one and wounded dozens, there is real reason to worry. The sharp deterioration on this front is not directly related, nor is it in any way similar to the events that have engulfed the Middle East and North Africa. But the overall context of instability and uncertainty undoubtedly has made a volatile situation even more so. Israelis' anxiety is rising and with it the fear that outside parties might seek to provoke hostilities to divert attention from domestic problems and shift the focus back to Israel. Hamas has been emboldened by regional events and is therefore less likely to back down from a challenge. The combination, as recent days have shown, has proven combustible.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Jerusalem, Gaza, Arab Countries, and North Africa
38. The Arab uprising: Causes, prospects and implications
- Author:
- Timo Behr and Mika Aaltola
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia have been triggered by a combination of deteriorating living standards and growing inequality (an economic deficit), a lack of political freedoms and public accountability (a political deficit), and the alienation of the demographically dominant age cohorts from the political order (a dignity deficit). While similar conditions exist in a number of Arab countries, socio-economic indicators suggest that the intensity of these deficits varies considerably across the Arab world. As a result, the nature and shape of protests across the region might differ. However, protests across the region have also been driven by a powerful “contagion effect” working on an ideational and emotional level. This contagion has been facilitated by satellite broadcasters, mobile phones, the internet, and new social media tools that elude government control and helped create new cleavages and loyalties. The outcome of the mass protests is likely to vary in accordance with the nature and level of cohesion of the incumbent regimes and their ability to maintain their monopoly on the use of force. While in some cases this might lead to a democratic transition from the bottom up, in other cases the outcome may be more gradual top-down reforms, a government crackdown on protestors or even a disintegration of the state. On a systemic level, the Arab uprising will create a new political and economic reality in the Middle East and transform the regional balance of power. While Western influence in the region will inevitably decline as a result, the Arab revolutions also have an undeniable potential to enhance regional cooperation, reduce the appeal of terrorism and help break the current deadlock in the peace process.
- Topic:
- Regime Change, Insurgency, and Social Movement
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Tunisia
39. From Jerusalem to Ramallah: Agenda 2010
- Author:
- David Makovsky, Robert Satloff, and Jacob Walles
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The absence of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations over the past year is both surprising and troubling given the high priority President Obama assigned to resolving the conflict. The failure to resume talks stems largely from a lack of urgency on both sides.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, and Arab Countries
40. Major U.S.-Saudi Arms Deal to Bolster Riyadh against Iran
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When Congress returns from its summer recess after Labor Day, the Department of Defense will provide informal notification of the U.S. intention to sell up to $60 billion in military equipment to Saudi Arabia. The likely deal is part of a U.S. commitment predating the Obama administration to strengthen regional allies in the face of a growing threat from Iran. For the Saudis, the transaction represents a clear return to considering the United States as its principal arms supplier, a position the Americans risked losing to France as recently as 2006.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
41. Yemen's Forever War: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
- Author:
- Christopher Boucek
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Although al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is not the biggest problem -- or even the biggest security challenge -- facing the Yemeni government, the United States and much of the international community still place it above other issues. Successful counterterrorism is directly linked to state stability. If Yemen becomes a failed state within the next few decades, U.S. counterterrorism objectives would be decisively undermined. The challenge for U.S. policy is finding a way to bolster the struggle against AQAP without exacerbating other aspects of Yemen's overlapping security, economic, and political crises.
- Topic:
- Security and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Yemen, and Arab Countries
42. Under Pressure: Social violence over land and water in Yemen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- In February 2007 at least a dozen people, including an 11-year-old boy, were killed during a land dispute between tribesmen from al-Baydha and Sanhan that erupted in a southern suburb of the Yemeni capital, Sana'a. A sheikh from Sanhan kidnapped the son of a sheikh from al-Baydha to pressure him into renouncing ownership of a large plot of land. The youth reportedly fought back, injuring his kidnapper, and was then killed. The boy's family rejected mediation and a gun battle erupted, with further killings apparently occurring when injured fighters were taken to hospital. Fighting was only quelled when the government sent tanks to separate the parties.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Natural Resources, and Water
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Arab Countries
43. Addressing the UAE Natural Gas Crisis: Strategies for a Rational Energy Policy
- Author:
- Justin Dargin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Although it seems inconceivable, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is facing an enormous energy shortage. Much of the world views the UAE – and the rest of the Gulf countries by extension – as an inexhaustible reserve of hydrocarbons. However, as with many of the other Gulf countries, the UAE confronts a potentially far reaching energy crisis. Despite increased energy production and imported Qatari gas through the Dolphin natural gas pipeline, UAE domestic gas demand substantially exceeds available supply. This disparity created a shortfall met by an increasing use of fuel oil, natural gas liquids, and in certain circumstances, coal. But it is natural gas that continues to be the UAE's most important domestic energy source.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Arab Countries
44. The Saudi Connection to the Mumbai Massacres: Strategic Implications for Israel
- Author:
- Jonathan Fighel
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Mumbai attacks have been linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba and radical Islamic groups in Kashmir generally. Yet it would be a mistake to see Lashkar only as a local organization with only a local agenda. Saudi Arabia has contributed very much to what Lashkar-e-Taiba looks like, how it thinks, its motivation, ideology, and funding. Saudi Arabia presents itself as the protector and the spearhead of the defense of Muslims around the world against what they define as the Western cultural attack. The Saudis are very committed to recruiting, funding, and funneling ideology to embattled Muslim minorities, and use Muslim charities as their tool to implement this policy. The Saudi methodology is to take advantage of a humanitarian crisis to get a foot in the door. Who could be against assisting widows and orphans and setting up schools and clinics? Some of the money is indeed funneled to support terrorism - families of suicide bombers. The notion of global Islam has also penetrated to Gaza and exists under the umbrella of Hamas, which is enabling a revival of global jihadi organizations there such as Jaish al-Islam and others. This phenomenon is radicalizing the already radicalized society in Gaza. Hamas could agree to a hudna (calm) for fifty years, but there will be no recognition of Israel or a cessation of the struggle against it. If Hamas was ready to act pragmatically, it would no longer be Hamas. And then the frustrated factions within Hamas would break off and join up with the radical global jihadi organizations in Gaza.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Arab Countries, and Mumbai
45. Rebuilding Gaza: Putting people before politics
- Author:
- Sara Hamood
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- In June 2009 the blockade on the Gaza Strip enters its third year. The intense closure policy, coupled with the government of Israel's recent military operation 'Cast Lead', has had a devastating impact on the lives and livelihoods of one and a half million Gazans, pushing them further into poverty and aid dependency. Parties to the conflict and the international community have, to varying degrees, prioritised their own political objectives over people's rights and needs, leaving Gazans sitting on the ruins of their homes. By attempting to isolate Hamas, the government of Israel and key international donor governments and institutions have in fact isolated the people of Gaza, thereby reducing chances of securing a peaceful, just and durable resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries
46. Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan: Hamas in Ascendance
- Author:
- Hassan Barari
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In early September, three senior leaders of Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood (MB) resigned from the organization's executive bureau after it voted to dissolve the MB political department -- one of the few remaining components of the organization controlled by moderates. The resignations were a protest against not only the executive bureau's decision, but also the MB's increasingly close affiliation with Hamas. Today, the Jordanian MB is facing an unprecedented internal crisis, pitting the traditional moderate East Bank leadership -- Jordanians who are not originally Palestinian -- against the powerful pro-Hamas Palestinian-led element. Lately, these divisions have been aggravated by Hamas political bureau head Khaled Mashal's apparent efforts to exploit the shifting balance of power within the MB to further his own organization's agenda in Amman. Ironically, Jordanian authorities -- who have long prided themselves on managing the Islamist issue -- have done little to stem the tide.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Islam, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries
47. Qadhafi at the UN: How to Be Washington's Friend
- Author:
- Dana Moss and Max Mealy
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This week, in a striking symbol of improved U.S.-Libyan relations and Tripoli's reengagement with the international community, Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi is set to address the UN General Assembly. Previously, Qadhafi refused to visit the UN headquarters because it was located within the borders of "an enemy of humanity." Although the dynamic has changed, in the aftermath of the release of Abdel Basset al-Megrahi, the convicted perpetrator of the Lockerbie bombing, few have high expectations for Qadhafi's UN visit. Nevertheless, the Libyan leader could capitalize on his visit to draw closer to the Obama administration, although it is impossible to know how Libyan domestic considerations or other factors will impact Qadhafi's behavior in New York. These may eventually dictate a more inflammatory path.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, New York, Washington, Arab Countries, and North Africa
48. Lebanon: Back to Square One?
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On September 10, after seventy-three days of trying to formulate a government, Lebanon's prime minister designate, Saad Hariri, resigned his mandate. Although Hariri's pro-West March 14 coalition secured a parliamentary majority in June elections -- and with it the right to govern -- the Hizballah-led minority rejected the cabinet he submitted to President Michel Suleiman. Now that March 14 has reelected Hariri as its candidate for premier, the stage is set for yet another showdown with Hizballah and its allies. As the process drags on, both Hizballah and March 14 are hardening their positions. Meanwhile, Syria, via the regime-controlled press, is hinting at a return to violence in Beirut. Today, on the nineteenth anniversary of the Taif Accords, which ended the civil war, Lebanon again stands on the precipice.
- Topic:
- Political Violence and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria
49. Saudi Oil Policy: An Unlikely Weapon to Pressure Iran
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Among the policy suggestions for heading off Iran's emergence as a military nuclear power is the notion that Saudi Arabia should use its position -- as the world's largest oil exporter and effective leader of the OPEC oil cartel -- to apply pressure. The kingdom is increasingly concerned that nuclear weapons capability would confer on Iran the status of regional hegemon. But any hope that Saudi Arabia would intervene to stop that possibility, by pumping extra supplies to lower prices and decrease Iran's oil revenues, is probably misplaced.
- Topic:
- International Organization and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
50. Breaking Stalemates on Iran and Syria at the IAEA
- Author:
- Gregory Schulte
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Mohamed ElBaradei will end his twelve years as director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in November. Absent a last-minute breakthrough, ElBaradei will leave incomplete the critical safeguards investigations of Iran and Syria. Earlier this month, ElBaradei reported to the IAEA Board of Governors little or no progress on either the six-year probe of Iran's nuclear activities or the more recent probe of Syria's clandestine cooperation with North Korea. ElBaradei reported that Tehran continues to enrich uranium, in violation of IAEA and UN Security Council requirements, and despite any obvious domestic energy demand. Tehran also continues to deny to IAEA inspectors access to information, people, and sites to verify the "peaceful" nature of Iran's nuclear activities.
- Topic:
- Islam, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North Korea, Arab Countries, and Syria