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Begin New Search Topic Political Violence Political Geography Africa Content Type Policy Brief Publication Year within 25 Years

1. Opportunities and Challenges of Ensuring Stability in Kenya’s 2017 General Elections

Author:
Charles Nyuykonge and Nonjabulo Buhle Mazibuko
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
With Africa having steadily begun the litany of elections billed for 2017, the orderly manner in which Somalia’s elections took place restored a glimmer of hope in those who think only the worst for Africa’s democratic and electoral maturity. With over 20 elections scheduled to take place before December 2017, the African Union Commission (AUC) has identified potential fault lines across Kenya’s election processes, and those in Liberia, as sites for election-related violence. Accordingly, among other things, the AUC has trained approximately 50 long-term election observers to be deployed to Kenya, Liberia and other states – based on empirical evidence that these particular cases could be cause for concern. This Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) examines the prospect for a peaceful election in Kenya, and offers insights on what can be done to mitigate any possible election-related violence. With respect to the state of readiness of election management bodies (EMB), the Supreme Court and the government to deliver credible elections, this PPB examines and brings to light challenges that could potentially trigger election-related violence, with the view to make recommendations on how to mobilise key stakeholders to invest in supporting local and under utilised institutions or existing processes and practices capable of mitigating election-related violence. Some of these stakeholders are critical in ensuring the identification of conflict triggers, forewarning about them and preventing their escalation to national crises and conflict. Civil society organisations (CSOs), regional and international organisations should, in the build-up to the 8 August election, effectively co-ordinate their pre-assessment field visits to Kenya so as to identify potential options to avert the likelihood of election-related violence in the country.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Liberia, and Somalia

2. In Defense of Democracy: Lessons from ECOWAS' Management of The Gambia's 2016 Post-Election Impasse

Author:
Brown Odigie
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The years 2015 and 2016 were crucial for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) from the perspective of its efforts to ensure sustainable peace and stability in the region, through supporting the conduct of peaceful elections and the orderly transfer of power. A total of 10 of its 15 member states held elections in 2015 and 2016. ECOWAS has a rich history of managing political transitions and elections in the past 18 years, following the adoption of the 1999 Protocol Relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peace-keeping and Security (referred to as “the mechanism”), as well as the 2001 Supplementary Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. This Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) examines ECOWAS’ interventions around the electoral processes of its member states, with particular focus on its management of the 2016 post-election impasse in The Gambia. This highlights how effective a mediation process can be when mandates are grounded within institutions’ normative and legal instruments, and when international actors work in partnership with regional organisations with respect to the principles of subsidiarity, complementarity and comparative advantages. The lessons from this intervention might therefore be relevant to other regional economic communities (RECs), the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) in avoiding the pitfalls of working in silos or engaging in a multiplicity of interventions, which are often at cross-purposes.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Democratization, Peacekeeping, Elections, Democracy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Gambia

3. Fifteen years of police reform in Sierra Leone: Community Policing and Local Policing Partnership Boards

Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
'Local Needs Policing' is the hallmark of the Sierra Leone Police community policing model. This DIIS Policy Brief lays out ten key observations that may be helpful when police reform is established elsewhere in the Global South.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Crime, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Africa

4. We No Longer Share the Land: Agricultural change, land, and violence in Darfur

Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Small-scale traditional agriculture provides the foundation of economic, political, and social life in Sudan's Darfur region. Traditionally, it included shifting crop cultivation and agro-pastoral livestock herding, with different ethnic groups specializing in each activity. Under this system, rights over land were not exclusive; various overlapping rights prevailed, and land use was not permanent. These arrangements allowed for the exchange of production inputs (manure for fertilizer, crop residues for animal feed), and permitted the different ethnic groups to coexist peacefully to their mutual advantage.
Topic:
Political Violence, Agriculture, Climate Change, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

5. Return to war in South Sudan

Author:
Gunnar M. Sørbø
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
While the crisis in South Sudan that started in December 2013 was triggered by a power struggle in the ruling party (SPLM), the causes for the rapid breakdown of peace run deep. Over time, several rebel groups were integrated into the army (SPLA) without resolving the causes of their rebellions. The army therefore became a coalition of ethnic militias loyal to their commanders, and when the shooting started in Juba, the country blew apart along these fault lines. However, the idea that there are two discernible camps – i.e. a Dinka-dominated government and a Nuer-dominated opposition – is grossly inaccurate. South Sudan has been at odds with itself for a long time. A weak but centralised government, scarce resources, patronage politics, the legacy of war, and a lack of peace dividends have provided a recipe for crisis and collapse for years. While Uganda's military involvement has given the conflict a dangerous regional dynamic, the greater challenge will be to move beyond striking a narrow peace deal between the main belligerents that will likely only restore the status quo. In order to reach a sustainable political solution a comprehensive rethink of South Sudan's national project is required that will address the root causes of the conflict.
Topic:
Political Violence and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, South Sudan, and Juba

6. From Crisis to Catastrophe: South Sudan's man-made crisis — and how the world must act now to prevent catastrophe in 2015

Author:
Isabel Martins
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
South Sudan is facing the world's worst food crisis, driven by the conflict that erupted in December 2013. Unless there is an end to the fighting, this food crisis will continue. Without far stronger international pressure, the conflict is unlikely to be resolved. International diplomacy – as well as aid and the protection of civilians on the ground – is urgently needed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Humanitarian Aid, and Food
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

7. Mali : dernière chance à Alger

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Alors que le Nord du Mali connait un inquiétant regain de violence, les négociations de paix à Alger constituent une chance unique de sortie de crise. Mais après deux mois de discussions, la paix semble encore loin. Le gouvernement malien et les groupes armés engagés dans les négociations peinent à trouver un terrain d'entente. Des groupes influents et radicaux qui manquent à la table des négociations sont tentés de faire dérailler le processus par la violence. La résolution du conflit passe par l'articulation complexe d'intérêts divergents qui touchent à la sécurité du Sahara, à la nature de l'Etat malien et aux équilibres locaux entre des communautés divisées. Face aux affrontements armés, la tentation est grande d'aller vite et de signer un accord à minima garantissant la sécurité à court terme. La précipitation est mauvaise conseillère. Il faut se donner les moyens et le temps de construire les fondements d'une paix durable.
Topic:
Political Violence, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

8. The Case for a New Federalism in Libya

Author:
Karim Mezran and Mohamed Eljarh
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The French intellectual Jean Baudrillard once said, “It is always the same: once you are liberated, you are forced to ask who you are.” In the case of Libya, this question should have been at the center of every political initiative immediately following the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi's regime. Libya's new leadership had the opportunity to convene a national dialogue in an effort to explore questions of national identity and a new vision for a national mission. Unfortunately, the Libyan elites who emerged from the 2011 civil war did not make national dialogue a priority, opting to appease local forces—armed and political—rather than to undertake the difficult but critical task of nation-building.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

9. Kenya's elections: the peace lobotomy?

Author:
Jean-Christophe Host
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
This Africa Policy Brief will look at the Kenyan elections of March 4th 2013 and examine what lessons can be learned from them. The argument that will be developed throughout this paper is that, although the violence was contained, the elections were not a success, because the drivers of conflict in Kenya remain untouched. The underlying reason being that the informal power of the political class still outweighs all the formal institutions and plans put in place. The ruling elite has acknowledged the drivers of conflict in Kenya for years but has shown very little interest in resolving them, because that could influence the drivers of their power.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

10. Mali: filling the void

Author:
Hans Hoebeke
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Mali, from model of democracy to a deep political, institutional crisis and war in the course of a few months. This policy brief offers an analysis of the Malian conflict looking into the national political dimension as well as the entire region where already present dynamics were reinforced by the Libyan war of 2011. It also looks into the regional and international response mechanisms.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, and North Africa

11. The March 2013 Elections in Kenya and the Responsibility to Protect

Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
On 4 March Kenyans will vote in highly anticipated elections. These elections will be Kenya's first since widespread violence following the December 2007 presidential election shocked the country and world. The 2007/8 violence lasted two months, during which time 1,133 Kenyans were killed, over 600,000 driven from their homes and more than 110,000 private properties were destroyed. The stakes during the upcoming elections are high and, while not inevitable, there is a serious risk of a recurrence of widespread violence.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Governance
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

12. Centrafrique : l'intervention de la dernière chance

Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Durant les neuf derniers mois, ce qui restait de l'Etat centrafricain s'est effondré avec de graves conséquences humanitaires (400 000 personnes sont déplacées et presque la moitié de la population a besoin d'aide humanitaire). Le gouvernement de transition et la force de sécurité régionale ont été incapables de freiner la chute dans l'anarchie aussi bien en zone rurale qu'en zone urbaine et notamment à Bangui. Après plusieurs mois de passivité et à la suite de tueries, la communauté internationale a pris conscience des conséquences de la faillite de la RCA. Malheureusement, la détérioration de la situation est bien plus rapide que la mobilisation internationale et Bangui est au bord de l'explosion. Dans l'immédiat, le Conseil de sécurité devrait fournir un mandat sous chapitre 7 à la Mission internationale de soutien à la Centrafrique sous conduite africaine (Misca) épaulée par les forces françaises pour rétablir l'ordre dans Bangui dans un premier temps puis se déployer dans d'autres villes. Par la suite, la réconciliation religieuse devrait être privilégiée et des mesures de stabilisation devraient être appliquées.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa

13. Somalia: Puntland's Punted Polls

Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Puntland is the first of Somalia's federal units to attempt transition from clan-based representation to directly-elected government, but poor preparations and last-minute cancellation of local elections in July underline the challenges of reconciling competing clan interests with a democratic constitution. Cancellation pragmatically averted violence, but societal tensions remain unaddressed. The presidential vote by a clan-selected parliament in January 2014 will thus be fraught. Weak political and judicial institutions will struggle to mediate, risking involvement by partisan arms of the state. Direct elections are no panacea for reducing the conflict risks, but hard-won incremental progress on the constitution and local democratisation must not be abandoned. The cancelled ballot's lessons should be instructive for promised elections in the rest of Somalia. Better technical preparations matter, but Puntland's experience shows that donors and other international actors also need to be heedful of local political realities, including support of elites, robustness of institutions and viability of electoral districts.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

14. "We are one, but we are different": Murle identity and local peacebuilding in Jonglei State, South Sudan

Author:
Diana Felix da Costa
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Despite the Murle group being politically and economically marginalised, local and national political and popular discourses portray this group as the main aggressor in South Sudan's Jonglei State. This widely asserted narrative ignores the fact that responsibility for the cycle of violence in Jonglei rests with all those perpetrating violence and certainly not solely with one group. While sharing an overarching ethnic identity, when it comes to issues of peacebuilding, the Murle can be neither seen nor treated as a consolidated group. Rather, there are cattlekeeping Murle living in the lowlands of Pibor county and agrarian Murle living in the Boma Plateau; there are also age-sets, clans and many other differentiating factors. Accusing all Murle of responsibility for violence only serves to magnify the sense of marginalisation and isolation felt by the Murle as a whole. This policy brief seeks to address some of the differences between the cattlekeeping lowlands Murle and the cultivating highlands Murle from the Boma Plateau. By doing so, it highlights the importance of understanding cultural specificities and the local political economy and, when it comes to peacebuilding, of differentiating who is responsible for a specific conflict and who has influence over those responsible.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

15. Mitigating Radicalism in Northern Nigeria

Author:
Michael Olufemi Sodipo
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Northern Nigeria has been the locus of an upsurge in youth radicalization and virulent militant Islamist groups in Nigeria since 2009. Nigeria's ranking on the Global Terrorism Index rose from 16 th out of 158 countries in 2008 to 6 th (tied with Somalia) by the end of 2011. There were 168 officially recorded terrorist attacks in 2011 alone. Bombings across the northeast prompted President Goodluck Jonathan in May 2013 to declare a state of emergency in Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe States. Many Nigerians have come to question whether the country is on the brink of a civil war.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Economics, Islam, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, Somalia, Yobe State, Borno State, and Adamawa State

16. Zimbabwe: An Opportunity for Closer U.S.-South Africa Relations

Author:
John Campbell
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
As Zimbabwe moves closer to elections, the prospect for political violence, even civil war, grows. President Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) are wrangling over a new constitution and the timing of upcoming elections. The eighty-eight-year-old Mugabe is suffering from cancer and wants elections soon to ensure his "liberation" legacy. At the same time, Mugabe-allied military factions, flush with off-the-books cash from Marange diamonds mined in the eastern part of the country, are mobilizing to stay in power when Mugabe dies. Political murder is on the upswing and Zimbabwe is as tense and divided now as it was during the run-up to the violent 2008 elections.
Topic:
Political Violence, Corruption, Democratization, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and Zimbabwe

17. L'Est du Congo : la rébellion perdue des ADF-Nalu

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Les Forces démocratiques alliées-Armée nationale de libération de l'Ouganda (ADF-N alu) sont un des groupes armés les plus anciens et les moins connus de l'Est de la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) et le seul de cette région à être considér é comme une organisation terroriste appartenant à la nébuleuse islamiste d'Afrique de l'Est. S'ils ne constituent pas une menace déstabilisatrice comme le Mouvement du 23 mars (M23), ils tiennent cependant tête à l'armée congolaise depuis 2010. Créé en RDC en 1995 et situé aux confins montagneux de la RDC et de l'Ouganda, ce groupe armé congolo-ougandais fait preuve d'une extraordinaire résilience qui tient à sa position géostratégique, son inse rtion dans l'économie transfrontalière et la corruption de s forces de sécurité. Par con- séquent, avant d'envisager toute nouvelle intervention militaire contre les ADF-Nalu, il convient de faire la part du mythe et de la réalité et de réduire sa base socioéconomique tout en proposant une offre de démobilisation et de réinsertion à ses combattants.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa

18. Kenya: Impact of the ICC Proceedings

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Although the mayhem following the disputed December 2007 elections seemed an exception, violence has been a com­mon feature of Kenya's politics since the introduction of a multiparty system in 1991. Yet, the number of people killed and displaced following that disputed vote was unprecedented. To provide justice to the victims, combat pervasive political impunity and deter future violence, the International Criminal Court (ICC) brought two cases against six suspects who allegedly bore the greatest responsibility for the post-election violence. These cases have enormous political consequences for both the 2012 elections and the country's stability. During the course of the year, rulings and procedures will inevitably either lower or increase com­munal tensions. If the ICC process is to contribute to the deterrence of future political violence in Kenya, the court and its friends must explain its work and limitations better to the public. Furthermore, Kenya's government must complement that ICC process with a national process aimed at countering impunity and punishing ethnic hate speech and violence.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

19. Boko Haram's Evolving Threat

Author:
J. Peter Pham
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Nigerian militant Islamist group Boko Haram has grown increasingly virulent since late 2010, reflecting a major transformation in its capacity, tactics, and ideology. There are indications of expanding links between Boko Haram and international Islamist terrorist organizations. Support for Boko Haram among some of northern Nigeria's marginalized Muslim communities suggests that security actions alone will be insufficient to quell the instability.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

20. Promoting Reconciliation through Exhuming and Identifying Victims in the 1994 Rwandan Genocide

Author:
Erin Jessee
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, in which an estimated 800,000 Tutsi civilians were killed, the ICTR commissioned a series of mass grave exhumations in Kigali and Kibuye. These exhumations were conducted by PHR, a Boston-based nongovernmental organization (NGO). Its mandate was to provide scientifically rigorous evidence that revealed the criminal nature of specific massacres in Kigali and Kibuye, as well as the statistical elements of the crimes, including the sex, ethnicity, age, and cause and manner of death for the individual victims (Haglund, 1997: 1; Haglund and Kirschner, 1997: ii).
Topic:
Political Violence, Genocide, Human Rights, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa

21. Optimizing Africa's Security Force Structures

Author:
Helmoed Heitman
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
There is much happening in Africa that is positive— economically, socially, and politically. But a large share of the continent remains fragile, putting those gains at risk. The most pressing challenges facing many African states are paramilitary threats— threats that are beyond the ability of most police forces and frequently transcend national borders. Organized crime, rural banditry, piracy, local warlords, guerrillas, ethnic and religious violence, and extremist Islamist groups are just a few of an array of such threats.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Crime, Ethnic Conflict, Poverty, Insurgency, and Piracy
Political Geography:
Africa

22. Tackling the Threat of Mass Atrocities in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Applying the Responsibility to Protect

Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
Since 1996, conflict in the DRC has claimed, according to the International Rescue Committee, over five million lives, either as a direct result of hostilities or because of disease and malnutrition associated with the fighting. Considered the deadliest conflict since World War II, the targeting of civilians has been a hallmark of the violence. Millions have been killed and forcibly displaced. Women, men and children have been brutally raped, children have been abducted and forcibly conscripted, and towns have been pillaged. Committed with impunity and perpetrated by foreign and domestic armed groups, and by state and non - state actors including the armed forces of the DRC (FARDC), these crimes pose an ongoing threat to populations in the DRC, with those in the east facing the greatest threat.
Topic:
Political Violence, Genocide, Health, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

23. Towards Durable Solutions for Displaced Ivoirians

Author:
Gaelle Bausson
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Six months after the resolution of the post-electoral stand-off in Côte d'Ivoire that followed the contested presidential elections of 28 November 2010, a humanitarian crisis of significant proportions remains. Whilst more than 500,000 have returned to their place of origin since the end of the conflict in April, approximately 450,000 Ivoirians remain displaced inside Côte d'Ivoire and in neighbouring countries, and both groups remain in need of enhanced humanitarian assistance and protection.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa

24. Nigeria's 2011 Elections: Best Run, but Most Violent

Author:
Dorina Bekoe
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Nigeria's 2011 general election received high praise for being well-managed. But post-election violence claimed 800 lives over three days in northern Nigeria and displaced 65,000 people, making the elections the most violent in Nigeria's history.
Topic:
Political Violence and Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa

25. Alternative Dispute Resolution in Africa: Preventing Conflict and Enhancing Stability

Author:
Ernest Uwazie
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Backlogged court dockets in Africa, often requiring claimants to wait years, are common. The resulting perception that justice cannot be attained through official channels is a potential catalyst for intergroup violence and political instability. Alternative Dispute Resolution is an increasingly popular complement to official legal channels to resolve less serious disputes in a timely manner through mediation while enhancing claimants' sense of justice. Establishing legislation supporting Alternative Dispute Resolution as well as broadening the number and caliber of mediators can expedite the adoption of this mechanism.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, and Law
Political Geography:
Africa

26. Côte d\'Ivoire : poursuivre la convalescence

Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
En dépit d\'une nette amélioration, la situation de la Côte d\'Ivoire reste fragile. Le transfèrement à La Haye de l\'ancien président Laurent Gbagbo inculpé par la Cour pénale internationale (CPI), douze jours seulement avant les élections législatives du 11 décembre 2011, a alourdi l\'atmosphère politique. Au lendemain de ces élections marquées par une très forte abstention, le pays est toujours exposé à de sérieuses menaces. La faiblesse et le déséquilibre de l\'appareil de sécurité et l\'exercice d\'une justice à deux vitesses confortent les extrémistes dans leurs convictions et constituent les deux principaux défis que le pouvoir doit relever dans les prochains mois. Si le vote s\'est déroulé dans le calme, la campagne qui l\'a précédé a été marquée par des incidents qui ont rappelé que la violence politique est toujours d\'actualité. L\'installation d\'une nouvelle Assemblée marque une nouvelle étape dans la normalisation, mais le pays n\'est pas pour autant sorti de l\'ornière.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Corruption, Government, and Law
Political Geography:
Africa

27. Nigeria's Elections: Reversing the Degeneration?

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The April 2011 general elections – if credible and peaceful – would reverse the degeneration of the franchise since Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999, yield more representative and legitimate institutions and restore faith in a democratic trajectory. Anything similar to the 2007 sham, however, could deepen the vulnerability of West Africa's largest country to conflict, further alienate citizens from the political elite and reinforce violent groups' narratives of bad governance and exclusion. Flawed polls, especially if politicians stoke ethnic or religious divides, may ignite already straining fault lines, as losers protest results. Despite encouraging electoral preparations, serious obstacles remain. Many politicians still seem determined to use violence, bribery or rigging to win the spoils of office. In the remaining weeks, national institutions, led by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC), should redouble efforts to secure the poll's integrity, tackle impunity for electoral crimes, increase transparency and bolster safeguards, including by publicising results polling station by polling station and rejecting bogus returns.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

28. Le Nord-ouest du Tchad: la prochaine zone à haut risque ?

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Depuis plus de cinq ans, alors que la rébellion armée de l'Est du Tchad et la crise du Darfour focalisent l'attention, le Nord-ouest du pays a suscité peu d'intérêts. Cependant, l'ampleur de plus en plus grande du trafic international de drogues et du terrorisme dans la bande sahélo-saharienne, l'émergence d'un islamisme combattant dans les pays voisins, l'intensification des ressentiments intercommunautaires et l'érosion des mécanismes de justice traditionnelle, la sous-administration et l'abandon qui caractérisent la politique gouvernementale à l'égard de cette région, risquent de devenir des facteurs de déstabilisation. Les autorités tchadiennes doivent changer de mode de gouvernance dans cette région et désamorcer les différentes sources de tensions ou les risques de déstabilisation avant que ceux-ci n'atteignent un seuil critique.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Insurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

29. The Lord's Resistance Army and the Responsibility to Protect

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
This brief seeks to clarify how the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) applies to the threat posed by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) and examines the measures that should be taken by regional governments, the African Union (AU), donor governments and the UN Security Council in order to protect populations under threat.
Topic:
Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

30. Disrupting the Supply Chain for Mass Atrocities

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
Mass atrocities are organized crimes. Those who commit genocide and crimes against humanity depend on third parties for the goods and services—money, matériel, political support, and a host of other resources—that sustain large-scale violence against civilians. Third parties have supplied military aircraft used by the Sudan Armed Forces against civilians, refined gold and other minerals coming out of eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, and ensured a steady flow of arms into Rwanda. Governments seeking to prevent atrocities cannot afford a narrow and uncoordinated focus on the perpetrators of such violence. Rather, an effective strategy must include identifying and pressuring third-party enablers— individuals, commercial entities, and countries—in order to interrupt the supply chains that fuel mass violence against civilians.
Topic:
Political Violence, Crime, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, Human Rights, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Rwanda

31. Why is violence escalating in Southern Sudan?

Author:
Øystein Rolandsen
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Despite the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement 9 January 2005, which formally ended the 22-year civil war in Southern Sudan, the frequency and severity of local conflicts increased during 2009. These conflicts are threatening the stability of the South, and ultimately the peace process itself. Widespread insecurity will also make it difficult to hold the planned national elections in April and the 2011 referendum on secession. Land and natural resources are increasingly contested in Southern Sudan and these issues trigger and fuel local violence. The return of internally displaced persons and refugees is also a source of controversy. In addition, partially incompatible interpretations of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army policy of “land belongs to the people” combined with institutional fragmentation further complicate the situation.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

32. Trends in Electoral Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Dorina Bekoe
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Studies indicate that violence in Africa's elections affects between 19 and 25 percent of elections. In many countries where electoral violence is a risk, it tends to recur and may consequently lead to an unfavorable view of democratization. The regularity with which electoral violence occurs suggests that underlying grievances or structural characteristics may be tied to the elections and fuel the violence. Electoral violence, especially recurrent, seems indicative of more widespread systemic grievances and tensions. Tensions over land rights, employment and ethnic marginalization are three dominant characteristics of recurring electoral violence. These areas intersect and are frequently manipulated by politicians. Some recent actions taken by the government and civil society may offer insights into reversing the trends of recurring violence. These actions warrant further analysis in order to improve strategies to reduce violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa

33. Misinterpreting Ethnic Conflicts in Africa

Author:
Clement Mweyang Aapengnuo
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Ethnicity is typically not the driving force of African conflicts but a lever used by political leaders to mobilize supporters in pursuit of power, wealth, and resources. Recognizing that ethnicity is a tool and not the driver of intergroup conflict should refocus our conflict mitigation efforts to the political triggers of conflict. Ethnic thinking and mobilization generally emerge from inequitable access to power and resources and not from an intrinsic hatred. Over the medium to long term, defusing the potency of ethnicity for political ends requires a systematic civic education strategy that helps build a common national identity, which so many African countries still lack.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Nationalism, and Ethnic Government
Political Geography:
Africa

34. Western Sahara: The Failure of "Negotiations without Preconditions"

Author:
Anna Theofilopoulou
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The ongoing effort to use negotiations without preconditions to resolve the conflict between Morocco and the Polisario Front over Western Sahara has not produced results. The April 6, 2010 report of the United Nations secretary-general to the U.N. Security Council admits that there has been no movement on the core substantive issues.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Diplomacy, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa and Morocco

35. Central African Republic: Keeping the Dialogue Alive

Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The failure of President François Bozizé and his close circle to follow through with many of the concessions agreed on during the Inclusive Political Dialogue risks exacerbating the many conflicts in the Central African Republic (CAR) and stalling national reconciliation. Those December 2008 talks made a valuable contribution to both reducing levels of violence and shaping the long-term reform agenda. The promised integration of rebel leaders into civilian political life, the precedent of decision-making by consensus and a concrete set of agreements that included rebel disarmament and security sector reform were welcome steps towards greater stability. To ensure these gains are not undone by another political crisis, however, the president must abandon the uncompromising attitude he displayed through much of 2009 and the government must quickly resolve new conflicts in the north east and prepare credible elections. Otherwise, donors should suspend financial support to a regime that is largely dependent on foreign aid.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Political Violence
Political Geography:
Africa

36. International Engagement with Somalia

Author:
Stephanie Schwartz
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2006, supported by the U.S, had the unintentional consequence of fueling splinter insurgent groups including Al-Shabab and Hizbul Islam. Currently Somalia faces a humanitarian crisis with 3.6 million people displaced. Countering the insurgency and alleviating the humanitarian crisis in Somalia demands a creative rethinking of international policy. While the 2008 Dijbouti Accord created a more inclusive Transitional Federal Government (TFG), the international community must weigh whether continued support for the TFG will bring real progress in governance or if it will strengthen popular support for the insurgency. If the international community sees support for the TFG as beneficial, they could consider policies including: Flooding Somalia with development aid and investing in civil society; Expanding the African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission to include representation from other Muslim countries; Finding creative solutions for inter-Somali governance and reconciliation. If the international community calculates that support for the TFG is not beneficial because it will only fuel the insurgency, they should consider a policy of "constructive disengagement," withdrawing support from the TFG and the AU peacekeeping mission, while simultaneously investing in local and regional development projects.
Topic:
Political Violence, Terrorism, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, Ethiopia, and Somalia

37. Nonstate Policing: Expanding the Scope for Tackling Africa's Urban Violence

Author:
Bruce Baker
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Violent crime in Africa's cities is endemic and in many places worsening. Africa as a whole has a homicide rate of 20 per 100,000 (in Europe it is 5.4, in North America 6.5, and in South America 25.9). The problem is particularly severe in some urban areas. Kinshasa's homicide rate is estimated to be as high as 112 homicides per 100,000. The Nigerian police have recorded consistently rising rates of murder and at - tempted murder over the last 20 years. Rates of armed robbery in Africa are also very high. In Nairobi, 37 percent of residents reported being victims. The rate is 27 percent in some Mozambican cities and 21 percent in the Democratic Republic of the Congo(DRC).
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Civil Society, and Crime
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Nairobi

38. The Responsibility to Protect and Kenya: Past Successes and Current Challenges

Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
The passing of the 4 August constitutional referendum in Kenya is a promising sign in the broader context of efforts to prevent atrocities and uphold the responsibility to protect (R2P). The peaceful referendum sharply contrasts with the wave of violence that erupted in the wake of the disputed December 2007 presidential election, when within hours of the announcement of the results violence broke out. Less than two months later 1,133 Kenyans had been murdered, unknown numbers raped, and over 500,000 forcibly driven from their homes. The perpetrators included individuals, militias and the police with victims often targeted on the basis of their ethnicity and corresponding perceived support for a particular presidential candidate.
Topic:
Political Violence and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

39. Atrocities in Nigeria's Plateau State and the Responsibility to Protect

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
On 7 March 2010, between 1 and 3 am, groups of armed men launched simultaneous attacks on the villages of Dogo Nahauwa, Zot, and Ratsat, in Du District of Jos South Local Government Area, Plateau state, Nigeria. Driven from their homes by the sound of gunfire, villagers were maimed and killed by machete wielding men who also set homes on fire, displacing the survivors.
Topic:
Political Violence, Human Rights, and Torture
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

40. The International Response to 28 September 2009 Massacre in Guinea and the Responsibility to Protect

Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
On 28 September 2009, government forces opened fire on opposition supporters peacefully protesting in a stadium in Conakry, Guinea. Demonstrators had gathered to contest junta leader Captain Dadis Camara's reported intention to run in the January 2010 elections, and break his promise to cede power to civilian rule. Over 150 civilians were killed in attacks that Human Rights Watch reports were premeditated and that the United Nations Commission of Inquiry concluded amounted to crimes against humanity. Over 1,200 people were injured, rape and sexual violence was widespread, and unknown numbers of protestors and political opponents were detained.
Topic:
Political Violence, Crime, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

41. Fragile states and the international response: in pursuit of security or development?

Author:
Koen Vlassenroot
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
In the pursuit of security and development in Africa, more and more reference is being made to the concept of fragile states. This paper explores the meaning of this concept and considers the attention that is being paid to it as a consequence of integrating security and development into the policy of the major donor countries. In an African context state fragility is a cause of numerous conflicts, but also a major focal point of peace processes and donor interventions. This paper is intended to be a warning against a too narrow focus on security in the process of combating fragility. It pleads for an integrated policy, based on the pursuit of sustainable development and emphasises the strengthening of the authority and power of the state and the promotion of local economic and social development.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, Economics, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa

42. Building Blocks for Citizenship and a Peaceful Transition in Sudan

Author:
Kelly Campbell, Linda Bishai, and Jacki Wilson
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Sudan's upcoming elections in 2009 raise hopes and concerns for the country's future. According to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in 2005 between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), Sudan is scheduled to hold national and state level elections in 2009. (Elections are to take place for president of the Government of National Unity, president of the Government of Southern Sudan, members of the National Assembly and the South Sudan Legislative Assembly, and governors and state legislatures in all of Sudan's 25 states) However, delays in each phase of electoral preparation—including the passage of the electoral law, the appointment of the nine National Election Commission members responsible for overseeing elections, and the census—have raised doubts about whether the elections will be held within the timeframe outlined in the CPA.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Government, Peace Studies, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

43. Just peace? Peacebuilding and rule of law in Africa: Lessons for policymakers

Author:
Olga Martin-Ortega, Chandra Lekha Sriram, and Johanna Herman
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
Abstract:
Rule of law promotion is integral to peacebuilding, but not always well integrated It is important to distinguish between technical delivery of rule of law assistance and access to justice as perceived by the population Rule of law promotion and transitional justice may be complementary, or competitive Despite emphasis on the formal sector, informal justice processes are often most accessible to the vast majority Such informal processes may be transformed both by conflict and by peacebuilding activities Emphasis on state institutions in rule of law promotion can inadvertently undermine equal access to justice Given these challenges, the international community faces serious dilemmas about whom to engage, and particularly whether to engage the informal sector at all.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Peace Studies, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

44. Guinea-Bissau: Beyond Rule of the Gun

Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The assassinations of the chief of defence staff, General Batista Tagme Na Wai, on 1 March 2009 and Presi- dent Joao Bernardo Nino Vieira early the next day have plunged Guinea-Bissau into deep uncertainty. National Assembly Speaker Raimundo Pereira was quickly sworn in as interim president pending the election the constitution requires. That the killings occurred only months after the acclaimed November parliamentary elections, however, indicates that, in current circumstances, the democratic process cannot cope with the rule of the gun, as well as the extent to which the military's use of force has overwhelmed state institutions. Without outside help to end military involvement in politics and impunity, it may be impossible to halt a slide into further violence. Elites need to stand up to the military, but they require support. The international community should work for an international or hybrid commission of inquiry into the killings. Security system reform needs to be improve d by better international coordination and creation of a national commission with enhanced autonomy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Political Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea-Bissau

45. Côte d'Ivoire : les impératifs de sortie de crise

Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le 4 mars 2007, les deux principaux protagonistes de la crise ivoirienne signaient l'accord politique de Ouagadougou (APO). Ce compromis a, dans un pre-mier temps, apporté un environnement de paix en Côte d'Ivoire. La ligne de démarcation entre les deux pro-tagonistes a été démantelée. Un nouveau gouvernement a été formé et les bases ont été jetées pour apporter une réponse aux deux questions-clés du conflit : l'identité et la citoyenneté ivoiriennes et la légitimité du pouvoir. Mais, plus de deux ans après son adoption, l'APO va mal. Une sortie de crise sera possible uniquement si les engagements pris dans la capitale burkinabé sont enfin suivis d'effets. Sortir la Côte d'Ivoire de sa décen-nie de crise ne nécessitera pas seulement l'organisation d'élections crédibles mais impliquera également des progrès significatifs dans le processus de désarmement ainsi qu'une véritable réunification de l'administration. Ceci demandera la remobilisation de la facilitation burkinabé et une pression accrue des partenaires inter-nationaux sur les acteurs du conflit.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Peace Studies, and Post Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa

46. Somalia: The Trouble with Puntland

Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The semi-autonomous north-eastern Somali region of Puntland, once touted as a success of the “building blocks” approach to reestablishing national stability and widely viewed as one of the most prosperous parts of Somalia, is experiencing a three-year rise in insecurity and political tension. At its roots are poor governance and a collapse of the intra-clan cohesion and pan-Darood solidarity that led to its creation in 1998. Intra-Darood friction has eroded the consensual style of politics that once underpinned a relative stability. The piracy problem is a dramatic symptom of deeper problems that, left untreated, could lead to Puntland's disintegration or overthrow by an underground militant Islamist movement. A solution to the security threat requires the Puntland government to institute reforms that would make it more transparent and inclusive of all clans living within the region.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, and Puntland

47. Guinea: Military Rule Must End

Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The killing of at least 160 participants in a peaceful demonstration, the rape of many women protestors, and the arrest of political leaders by security forces in Conakry on 28 September 2009 showed starkly the dangers that continued military rule poses to Guinea's stability and to a region where three fragile countries are only just recovering from civil wars. The military junta, the National Council for Democracy and Development (Conseil national pour la démocratie et le développement, CNDD), is denying its evident responsibility and playing for time by offering what it calls a “national union government” to opposition parties. But with the mood on the streets hardening against the junta, worse trouble is likely unless combined domestic and international pressure is applied to force the soldiers from power.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea

48. Six Important Issues for Sudan and Its Future

Author:
Jon Temin
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Over the past few months, much of the international attention devoted to Sudan has focused on “CPA implementation.” Within that focus on the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), most attention is paid to the status of Abyei, if and when nationwide elections will happen, border demarcation and, above all else, the 2011 referendum on the status of southern Sudan. But there are other aspects of the north-south dynamic deserving of discussion and strategic thinking that don't receive their due. This Peace Brief describes six of those issues and questions that, while they get some attention, could use a little more as decisive events in Sudan's political history approach.
Topic:
Political Violence and Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

49. Crisis in the Niger Delta

Author:
David R. Smock
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The demands of the population in the Niger Delta to enjoy greater benefit from the oil produced in their region continue to go unanswered. The people in the Delta complain that oil-spill pollution has made their water undrinkable, gas flaring has made the air unfit for breathing, while revenue from the oil has paid for mansions to be built in the capital, Abuja. Although well armed militias have suspended their attacks for a few weeks, they threaten to resume operations soon. A Technical Committee appointed by Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Aduato make recommendations for action relating to the Delta made its report nine months ago, but the government has taken no action on the report. The government has offered an amnesty to the militants for a period that expires in early October, but so far few militants have responded. Oil production continues to be seriously reduced by the militants' attacks and by the stealing of oil (termed “bunkering”) by militants and others.
Topic:
Political Violence and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

50. Somaliland: A Way out of the Electoral Crisis

Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The stalled electoral process has plunged Somaliland into a serious political crisis that presents yet another risk of destabilisation for the region. If its hard-won political stability collapses under the strain of brinkmanship and intransigence, clan leaders might remobilise militias, in effect ending its dream of independence. The political class must finally accept to uphold the region's constitution, abide by the electoral laws and adhere to interparty agreements such as the electoral code of conduct and memorandum of understanding signed on 25 September 2009, so as to contain the crisis and permit implementation of extensive electoral reforms. International partners and donors should keep a close watch on developments and sustain pressure for genuinely free and fair general elections in 2010.
Topic:
Political Violence and Democratization
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia