Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: Africa / Publication Year: within 10 Years

201. ‘Designed in Ethiopia’ and ‘Made in China’: Sino-Ethiopian technology collaboration in South-South relations

Author:: Jos Meester
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief provides an examination of China’s rise in relation to its African partners. It takes into account geopolitical concerns, but homes in on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, its means of expanding into Africa. It examines the role of the Digital Silk Road in the use of Chinese artificial intelligence and technology transfers on surveillance and the risks of repression. The brief aims to move beyond the politicised narratives surrounding Chinese involvement in Africa by testing them against practical initiatives on the ground. It examines Ethiopia, particularly its burgeoning tech hub known as the ‘Sheba Valley’, in order to understand China’s role in development in African countries. Ethiopia is a critical case because of: the country’s strong relations with China, leading Ethiopia to model its developmental state model on the Chinese one and incentivising civil servants to learn from the Chinese experience; Ethiopia’s attempt to develop its relatively advanced ICT hub (the Sheba Valley) in collaboration with China’s Shenzhen-based ICT hub; Ethiopia’s historically heavy surveillance and repressive practices, in part modelled on China’s practice of prioritising development over democratic reform.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Surveillance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Ethiopia

202. ‘A careful foot can step anywhere’: The UAE and China in the Horn of Africa: Implications for EU engagement

Author:: Jos Meester and Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Over the last decade, the UAE and China have vastly expanded their economic, political and military footprint in the Horn of Africa, and their actions now have the potential to shape developments in the region. Room for cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Beijing exists on issues such as maritime security, regional stability, and economic development. Moreover, the two countries’ interaction could lead to improvements in the Horn’s underdeveloped infrastructure by triggering a race to investment. Yet, development and stability in the region might suffer if the strategic interests of external players take precedence over local ones, or if local elites (mis)use external support for narrow domestic political calculations. The EU and its member states have high stakes in the Horn’s stability. To optimise their engagement, European policymakers should be aware of the implications of the Emirati and Chinese presence, and they should strive to improve cooperation among the wide range of external players active in the Horn.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Politics, Military Affairs, Economic Development, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Horn of Africa

203. ‘Of Cattle and Conflict’ – Rethinking responses to pastoralism-related conflicts

Author:: Jos Meester
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Disputes over natural resources such as water and land among pastoralist groups and between mobile pastoralists and sedentary farmers have a long history and are turning increasingly violent. Competition over scarce natural resources is often put forward as the key driver of farmer-herder conflicts, disregarding the significant role governance is playing in conflict dynamics. Oversimplifications of the pastoralist-conflict equation and a lack of understanding of pastoralist systems and the way they are governed has led to inappropriate interventions further undermining pastoralism. Policies and interventions in response to pastoralism-related conflicts often do not take an integrated approach but are based on sectoral policies and are not conflict sensitive as they fail to take into account the political economy driving farmer-herder conflicts. Comparing the cases of Burkina Faso, Somalia and South Sudan, this paper analyses how pastoralist resource governance in combination with its specific underlying political economy differentially affects the dynamics of conflict around pastoral resources. Reflecting upon three agendas that inform the thinking about pastoralism as well as donor interventions – climate change, food security and governance – this paper provides some recommendations on how to take underlying political economy into account for sensible and effective programming.
Topic:: Agriculture, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Pastoralism
Political Geography:: Africa, Somalia, South Sudan, and Burkina Faso

204. A warm war: Sudan and Ethiopia on a collision course

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Border conflict between Sudan and Ethiopia is fed by current conflicts rooted in historical disagreements, and may develop into a regional crisis that will expand to include Egypt, which considers the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam a threat to its national security.
Topic:: National Security, War, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and Ethiopia

205. EU-Africa relations in the light of the Covid-19 pandemic. State of play and prospects

Author:: Alexandre Kateb
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: According to official statistics, the African continent has been relatively spared by the Covid-19 pandemic compared to Europe, America and Asia. The factors behind the low incidence of coronavirus in Africa are not fully understood. According to the WHO, the African continent has benefited from certain structural factors such as the limited international connectivity of most African countries, with the exception of some regional "hubs" such as Johannesburg, Casablanca, Addis Ababa and Nairobi. Incidentally, the most 'connected' African countries such as Morocco and South Africa have incurred the highest prevalence rates of Covid-19, which may lend credence to this explanation.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

206. Public development aid should refocus on agriculture and education in Africa

Author:: Louis Caudron
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: On 18 December 2020, the European Commission welcomed the political agreement reached between the European Parliament and the Member States allocating €79.5 billion to a new Neighbourhood, Development Cooperation and International Cooperation Instrument (NDCI) for the period 2021- 2027. Since its creation, the European Union has been a major player in public aid granted by rich countries to developing countries. The European Development Fund (EDF) was launched by the Treaty of Rome in 1957 and for decades provided aid to the former colonies in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific (ACP). The eleventh EDF, covering the period 2014- 2020 with a budget of €30.5 billion, will be replaced by the NDICI (Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument). The Union and its Member States are the world's largest donor of official development assistance. Their contribution of €74.4 billion in 2018 represents more than half of the OECD countries’ Official Development Assistance ($150 billion in 2018).
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Education, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

207. A Comprehensive Evaluation on Korea’s ODA to Rwanda’s Agriculture Sector and Its implications for Strategic Approaches

Author:: Young Ho Park, Minji Jeong, and Soo Hyun Moon
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: There has been a growing consensus in the national and international aid architecture that sporadic or scattered aid modality should be avoided. This study conducted a comprehensive cluster evaluation on Korea’s agricultural ODA to Rwanda between 2013 and 2017, with two newly devised indexes: Cluster Performance Index (CPI) and Resource Allocation Index (RAI). Every Korean agricultural ODA project was categorized into five clusters and numerically evaluated against criteria widely used in the evaluation of development projects: relevance, efficiency, effectiveness and sustainability. Our cluster evaluation reveals that projects are mostly planned appropriately, but in some clusters, large amounts of the budget have been invested in poorly planned projects. Regarding efficiency, there was considerable room for improvement in all clusters. Particularly, in the Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) category, all clusters scored below average. Concerning performance evaluation, all clusters scored relatively high in effectiveness, specifically in goal achievement. Lastly, in terms of sustainability, risk management was found to be relatively inadequate in all clusters. Based on the lessons from the aforementioned observations and analysis results, this study suggests ODA quality can be improved by optimizing budget allocation, improving monitoring efficiency, creating synergistic effects through cluster linkage, and developing agricultural value chain program.
Topic:: Agriculture, Foreign Aid, Economy, and Value Chains
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, Korea, and Rwanda

208. Implications of COVID-19 for Conflict in Africa

Author:: Charlotte Fiedler, Karina Mross, and Yonas Adeto
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected armed conflict and political violence within countries? Focusing on Africa, a continent with a particularly high number of ongoing conflicts, this policy brief analyses the immediate and long-term implications of the pandemic on conflict and reflects on its implications for international peacebuilding efforts. In the short term, conflict patterns on the continent are marked more by a continuation of previous trends than by a strong direct impact of COVID-19. Regarding armed confrontations, there was a rise in conflict intensity in some countries and one new war erupted in the Tigray region of Ethiopia in November 2020. As to lower-scale political violence, especially in the beginning of the pandemic, many states used excessive state violence against civilians when enforcing Corona measures. Perhaps more important than the immediate effect of the pandemic, the consequences of the pandemic are very likely to accelerate violent conflict in the medium to long term. This is firstly because the pandemic exacerbates structural weaknesses, including the sharpening of societal divisions, severe disruptions in the education sector and deteriorating socio-economic circumstances. Secondly, the pandemic has curtailed actors and institutions that might be able to reduce the risk of violent escalation. Trust in the state and security institutions has suffered in many countries due to dissatis-faction with the handling of the pandemic. Moreover, demo¬cratic processes are hampered by the postponement of elections and increasing levels of government repression. At the same time, international peace support is negatively affected by social distancing and further threatened by looming cuts of commitments in official development assistance. Bringing together both the short-term and longer-term effects of the pandemic on conflict clearly shows the risk that the pandemic poses to peace in Africa. It is therefore vital for the international community to: 1. Stay engaged and stay alert. If the international community continues to focus on handling the domestic consequences of the pandemic rather than international challenges, conflict will further increase in intensity and spread geographically. COVID-19 has already led to a reduction in international peace support, including peacebuilding initiatives and mediation. However, these instruments are vital to foster peace and prevent emerging and renewed conflict. 2. Invest in conflict prevention. The adverse effects of COVID-19 on economic, social and political structures can, and very likely will, provide the breeding ground for larger-scale conflicts, both in least developed countries (LDCs) and middle-income countries. Thus, conflict prevention must be taken seriously, including the strengthening of open and participatory (democratic) processes that enable societies to deal with societal conflicts peacefully. 3. Pay special attention to post-conflict countries. Many African countries have experienced large-scale civil wars in their history and continue to be LDCs struggling with societal tensions. The risk of renewed conflict in these places is particularly high.
Topic:: Development, Conflict, COVID-19, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa

209. The Preserving Effect of Social Protection on Social Cohesion in Times of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Christoph Strupat
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper examines empirically whether social protection in the form of adapted social assistance programmes are affecting social cohesion during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using unique primary data from nationally representative, in-person surveys from Kenya allows for the exploration of the effect of social protection on attributes of social cohesion (trust, cooperation and identity). The analysis employs a difference-in-differences approach that compares households with and without social assistance coverage before and after the first wave of the pandemic. The findings suggest that social assistance can have a positive effect on attributes of social cohesion, but only in regions that faced larger restrictions due to lockdown policies. Turning to the analysis without focusing on lockdown regions, social assistance does not affect attributes of social cohesion. Overall, the results suggest that only under specific circumstances existing national social assistance programmes and their adaptation in times of large covariate shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can be beneficial for social cohesion.
Topic:: Social Cohesion, COVID-19, Trust, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

210. An evidence review of violence prevention in South Africa

Author:: Matodzi Amisi and Sara N Naicker
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:: This policy brief presents findings from an evidence review of violence prevention interventions implemented in South Africa. The review draws on an evidence map published in 2019,1 and additional papers since then. It includes evidence generated through qualitative and quantitative methodologies. The review summarises the available evidence, with an assessment of quality, and perhaps most importantly it highlights the contextual factors that impact success. The review was guided by the question: ‘How and in what context do interventions impact perpetration and victimisation; and how can violence prevention interventions be implemented at scale?’ The approach taken to answer this question is similar to a narrative review. The objective was not to aggregate results from the studies but to summarise the evidence. Narrative review typically involves the selection, chronicling and ordering of evidence to produce an account of the evidence. This allowed us to include both qualitative and quantitative studies, a range of interventions, and to be interpretive. The review was carried out in four phases (Chart 1). Each paper or report was read in full and data extracted. In addition, an assessment of the quality of evidence presented in each paper or report was undertaken. A standardised tool rated each study on its conceptualisation, research question, sample size, context, control of confounding variable, etc.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Gender Based Violence, Violence, Sexual Violence, and Victims
Political Geography:: Africa

211. Risk of Mass Atrocities in Mozambique

Author:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: Mozambique ranks 24th in the Early Warning Project risk assessment for mass killing for 2020-21. The strongest risk factor is the armed conflict between the government and insurgents, which has killed over 1,300 civilians and displaced nearly 700,000 of the 2.32 million people in Cabo Delgado. To prevent mass atrocities, the government of Mozambique must invest in peacebuilding, provision of basic services, and professionalization of its armed services. All perpetrators of gross human rights violations must be held accountable. The U.S. and other governments should conduct a full mass atrocity risk assessment immediately, and analyze how their military assistance and private sector investments are impacting the conflict.
Topic:: Human Rights, Atrocities, Risk Factors, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, and United States of America

212. Korea’s Strategy on Trade Agreements with Developing Countries in Africa and the Pacific Regions

Author:: Meeryung La
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: As the US-China trade conflict intensifies, high dependence on US and China has been pointed out as a potential risk to the Korean economy. This calls for trade policies including diversification of trading partners and the establishment of a new model for trade agreements suitable to such diversified partners. Meanwhile, the necessity for such policies grows as protectionism spreads globally and trade order changes after the Covid-19 pandemic. Africa and the Pacific (AP) regions, the main areas of interest in this report, have been excluded from Korea’s FTA network despite their high growth potential and strategic significance. Most countries in the AP regions are geographically distant from Korea and mostly underdeveloped, so we have approached the region only in terms of development cooperation. Currently, trade agreements and systems for trade and investment with AP countries are insufficient, and the size of economic cooperation with these countries remains small. However, Africa has high market potential, owing to various factors such as its high population growth, middle-class growth, and transition to digital economy, while the Pacific island countries have abundant fisheries and marine resources, and wield voting power in international organizations. In this regard, it is necessary to build the foundation for cooperation with AP countries in the mid-to-long term. Against this backdrop, this study seeks mid- to long-term strategies to promote trade cooperation with AP countries. First we consider introducing and expanding nonreciprocal arrangements for developing countries in the AP regions, as currently provided to United Nations-defined least developed countries. Then we consider introducing a reciprocal trade agreement, for example, an FTA. As a result, we found that it is necessary to introduce an FTA model suitable for developing countries in the AP regions instead of introducing further nonreciprocal agreements. Based on the results of the study, this paper proposes strategic directions for trade cooperation with the AP regions, and furthermore, provides policy suggestions that should be included in the agreement with those countries.
Topic:: Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, Digital Economy, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, South Korea, and Asia-Pacific

213. From Unilateral Response to Coordinated Action: How Can Mobility Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa Adapt to the Public-Health Challenges of COVID-19?

Author:: Ling San Lau, Kate Hooper, and Monette Zard
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic challenged public health and migration management infrastructures in sub-Saharan Africa, like elsewhere, as never before. While many countries in the region had experience dealing with infectious disease outbreaks, including Ebola and yellow fever, the nature of transmission under COVID-19, among other factors, forced governments to reassess many of their public-health strategies and adopt strict guidelines to prevent pushing fragile and over-burdened health-care systems over the edge. However, border closures and other mobility restrictions brought unintended consequences, including stranding large numbers of people, imperiling the supply of essential goods and services, and cutting off income for border communities and prospective migrants. In addition, unilateral containment and mitigation policies prevented a coordinated approach to both public health and migration management. The policy brief examines the different strategies employed by governments in sub-Saharan Africa during the first year of the pandemic, and the limitations of unilateral action. It offers recommendations on how states and the international community can work together to restart migration and mobility and, looking forward, build capacity to respond to COVID-19 and future public health emergencies.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Migration, Governance, Employment, Refugees, Borders, Mobility, Public Health, COVID-19, Remittances, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

214. Deepening Labor Migration Governance at a Time of Immobility: Lessons from Ghana and Senegal

Author:: Camille Le Coz and Kate Hooper
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: The pandemic has upended labor migration around the globe, and with it, an important avenue for supporting socioeconomic development in many low- and middle-income countries. In Ghana, Senegal, and other West African countries, for example, migration and its corollaries, such as remittances and knowledge transfers from the diaspora, have long contributed to development. Ongoing travel restrictions and uncertainty about when migration will more fully restart threaten this progress and add an extra layer of complexity to efforts to improve the governance of international labor migration. This policy brief explores how governments and other stakeholders can promote better labor migration governance in low- and middle-income countries, and how these efforts are being shaped by the pandemic. It focuses on the experiences of Ghana and Senegal—two countries that were in the process of strengthening their migration policies before the pandemic began. The policy brief looks at these countries’ migration policy priorities, efforts to facilitate mobility within the region and further afield, and strategies for building closer ties to the diaspora. Crucially, the authors note, while the pandemic has disrupted efforts to improve labor migration governance, it has also made abundantly clear why doing so is important. Continued work in this area promises to help achieve better outcomes for migrants and for countries of origin and destination.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Labor Issues, Governance, COVID-19, and Remittances
Political Geography:: Africa, Senegal, and Ghana

215. When armies enforce the law: Why the Ghana armed forces play a role in domestic security

Author:: Peter Albrecht, Fiifi Edu-Afful, and Festus Aubyn
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The Ghana Armed Forces play a significant role in domestic security. To fully comprehend how and why requires a deeper understanding of the way that individual, local, national and regional factors interact. A blurring of the duties of the police and armed forces speaks to a never fully realized separation of who oversees internal and external security. The division of labour between a police force that deals with domestic security concerns and armed forces that defend the borders of a country against external threats has become a generally accepted ideal during the past 150 years. In practice, this separation has been historically tenuous, which was emphasized when the Cold War came to an end, and new security threats such as civil wars and international terrorism emerged. The terrorist attacks on the United States on 11 September 2001 strongly reinforced pressures towards the development of expeditionary security capabilities, which was done partially by expanding the roles and responsibilities of the armed forces in internal security. In Ghana, these international transformations in the role of the armed forces together with the country’s particular history of civil-military relations have led to an expansive set of functions for the Ghana Armed Forces domestically. Today, the armed forces play a consistent role in internal security operations, sometimes referred to in public debates as ‘internal peacekeeping’. Military personnel are deployed to deal with a wide range of law enforcement matters across the country, such as illegal mining, illegal logging, armed robberies (patrolling), and chieftaincy disputes.
Topic:: Security, Law Enforcement, Armed Forces, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

216. Two sides of the same coin? International peacekeeping shapes domestic security in Ghana

Author:: Peter Albrecht, Fiifi Edu-Afful, and Festus Aubyn
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The Ghana Armed Forces are lauded for their contributions to international peacekeeping abroad, but how do those experiences impact security back home? Evidence suggests that there is a mutually reinforcing relationship between international peacekeeping and internal security operations and that international peacekeeping has shaped and legitimised the use of the armed forces within the borders of Ghana. International attention on the Ghana Armed Forces often centres on the benefits that are garnered from engaging in UN peacekeeping missions. Discussions emphasise how missions, especially those deploying in West Africa, have had a stabilising effect on Ghana and framed the armed forces as professional and culturally sensitive. Moreover, emphasis has been on the importance of economic gain – both for individual soldiers and the institution – and on the democratising effect that contributions to peacekeeping have had on the armed forces. Much less publicised and discussed internationally is the comprehensive role that the armed forces are directed to play in internal security operations, mainly by Ghana’s political elite. Even less attention, inside and outside the country, has been given to how international peacekeeping and internal operations are connected and shape one another; they are strinkingly similar, and also mutually reinforcing. This connection has gradually intensified since the end of the Cold War, as the number and activities of both types of military practice – peacekeeping and internal operations – have multiplied and expanded.
Topic:: Security, Law Enforcement, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

217. Global rivalry in the Red Sea: A ‘Geopolitical’ European Union should encourage cooperation in the Red Sea region

Author:: Fabrizzio Tassinari and Mehari Taddele Maru
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Geopolitical competition in Africa is here to stay, and the question for the EU is not if but how to position itself in this global competition. In the case of the Red Sea region, the EU should support regional initiatives to build effective regional maritime governance and promote global public goods such as maritime security and the blue economy. Under the Presidency of Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission has branded itself a ‘Geopolitical Commission’. With regard to geopolitics, the Red Sea has for years been seen as a primary focus of action, a point the European Council stressed in July 2021, when it identified the region as a ‘geostrategic priority’. In 2018, the Council of the European Union adopted conclusions on the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, finding that there was ‘renewed geopolitical competition on both shores of the Red Sea’. The EU further stressed that ‘at stake are the preservation of the security of the Bab el Mandeb maritime route through which a significant proportion of trade to and from Europe passes; the harnessing of irregular migration flows; the containment of terrorist threats; and the prevention of instability in the EU’s wider neighbourhood’.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, International Organization, Governance, European Union, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Red Sea

218. Rethinking Transnational Terrorism: An Integrated Approach

Author:: Martha Crenshaw
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The 2011 civil war in Syria attracted thousands of fighters from at least seventy countries to join the Islamic State. Al-Shabaab carried out large-scale attacks on civilian targets in Uganda and Kenya as retribution for the deployment of peacekeeping forces in Somalia. In this report, Martha Crenshaw considers the extent to which civil war and foreign military intervention function as a rationale for transnational terrorism, and how understanding the connections between terrorism, civil war, and weak governance can help the United States and its allies mount an appropriate response.
Topic:: Terrorism, War, Non State Actors, Islamic State, Transnational Actors, Peace, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, Syria, Somalia, and United States of America

219. Addressing the Challenges of Urbanization in Africa

Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:: Africa is the world’s least urbanized continent, and yet the rate at which its cities are expanding is growing faster than no other worldwide – at an average of 3.5 percent per year. This growth of urbanization does, however, vary across the continent, ranging from the already heavily urbanized North Africa (47.8 percent) to the least urbanized Sub-Saharan Africa (32.8 percent).The aggregate rate of urbanization on the continent is projected to grow from 40 percent in 2015 to 56 percent in 2050. The enormous speed at which Africa’s cities are growing is linked to other key development trends, most prominently accelerating economic and population growth, increasing migration from rural to urban areas, and the youth bulge. It is strongly driven by Africans’ perceptions that cities – in contrast to the continent’s rural areas – offer an abundance of livelihood opportunities, including employment and income-generating opportunities, food security, and access to finance, education and social capital as well as social protection.
Topic:: Urbanization, Economic Growth, Urban, Population Growth, and Cities
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, and Sahara

220. Traditional Transitional Justice Mechanisms: Lessons from Africa

Author:: Nomathamsanqa Masiko-Mpaka
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: Transitional justice is widely accepted as a process for countries to employ when transitioning from authoritarian rule or armed conflict to democracy and in their quest to address legacies of systemic violence and human rights violations. As defined by the African Union, transitional justice refers to “the various (formal and traditional or non-formal) policy measures and institutional mechanisms that societies, through an inclusive consultative process, adopt in order to overcome past violations, divisions and inequalities and to create conditions for both security and democratic and socio-economic transformation.” While societies coming out of conflict or authoritarian rule have different histories, priorities and needs, commonly used mechanisms of transitional justice include criminal prosecutions, truth telling, reparations, institutional reforms, memorialisation, traditional justice, and vetting and lustration. The implementation of transitional justice is believed to be more effective, impactful and holistic when a combination of mechanisms is employed either simultaneously or sequentially.
Topic:: Human Rights, Democracy, Transitional Justice, Violence, and Justice
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Rwanda

221. Transitional Justice and the Inclusion of LGBTQIA+ Rights

Author:: Thokozani Mbwana
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: Transitional justice, as defined by the African Union Transitional Justice Policy (AUTJP), is a set of processes and mechanisms that aim to assist society in coming to terms with authoritarianism, past abuses and conflict. This is done by promoting accountability, peace, reconciliation and justice. The processes include judicial and non-judicial mechanisms such as criminal prosecutions, truth commissions (truth telling and seeking), institutional reforms and reparations.
Topic:: Transitional Justice and LGBT+
Political Geography:: Africa

222. Climate-related Security Risks and the African Union

Author:: Vane Moraa Aminga and Florian Krampe
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: There has been considerable attention on the conventional climate mitigation and adaptation debate in Africa, including the prominent efforts of the African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change in global climate forums. However, there is little understanding of how the African Union (AU) is discussing and responding to the security implications of climate change. This Policy Brief outlines key strengths of the African Union’s response, such as a rapidly evolving discourse around climate security and efforts to improve collaboration and coordination among different parts of the institution. But also, key weaknesses in the discourse around AU policy responses, such as the lack of tangible policy operationalization as well as financial unpreparedness and limited member state accountability. The Policy Brief makes recommendations highlighting entry points for advancing the understanding and response to climate-related security risks within the AU, such as: (a) develop and institutionalize coordinated responses to climate-related security risks, (b) develop strong climate security leadership within the African Union, and (c) change the narrative to focus on shared problems and therefore shared solutions—multilateralism rather than nationalism.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Multilateralism, Risk, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa

223. Brexit: An Assessment of Zambia- UK Trade & Investment Relations

Author:: Shimukunki Manchishi and Mwanda Phiri
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: Following the Brexit referendum held in the UK in 2016 that resulted in a majority vote to leave the EU, there has been speculation and uncertainty surrounding the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between the UK and developing countries such as Zambia. With Brexit, comes the exit of the UK from the EU, its customs union as well as the single market. Consequently, this implies that Zambia’s trade with the UK will no longer be under the ambit of the EU Everything But Arms (EBA) trade agreement which grants Zambian products other than arms, duty-free and quota-free market access to the UK. Naturally, this brings about questions of the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between Zambia and the UK which thus far, has been determined collectively under the framework of the EU since the UK’s accession to the EU customs union. In this policy paper, we provide a contextual analysis of the same. From this, we deduce that a ‘deal’ or ‘no deal’ Brexit is not likely to adversely impact the UK’s trade with Zambia. This is on condition that the UK’s own unilateral preference scheme comes into place and in time, to replicate the EU-EBA scheme with no disruption to traders. On the Investment front, although the UK has been Zambia’s fourth-largest source country for FDI inflows over the period 2010-2017, investments have been waning. Brexit has the potential to turn things around as the UK seeks to increase investments in other jurisdictions outside of the EU. With the UK now envisioning to become the largest G7 investor in Africa by 2022, there is a high probability that Brexit could lead to a positive investment crowding in effect, provided Zambia becomes a more attractive investment destination.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Brexit, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, and Zambia

224. State of Financial Cooperatives in Zambia: A viable option for increasing fi nancial inclusion?

Author:: ZIPAR
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: This policy brief presents the summary fi ndings of a study on Promoting Financial Cooperatives (FCs) in Zambia that was conducted between 2017 and 2018 with fi nancial support from the Rural Finance Expansion Program (RUFEP), Ministry of Commerce Trade and Industry (MCTI) and the Zambia Center for Accountancy Studies (ZCAS). The study used both qualitative and quantitative approaches which included a situational analysis of FCs in Zambia, a study tour to Kenya and a census of Financial Cooperatives (FCs) eight provinces. The main objective of the study was to contribute to the development of FCs in Zambia by generating information on their performance. The secondary objectives of the study were to: 1. Undertake a situational analysis to develop a clear understanding of the landscape for the FCs in Zambia in terms of the regulatory framework, support institutions and the nature and level at which the FCs operate. 2. Undertake a Census of cooperatives to understand the opportunities and constraining factors for the growth of the Cooperatives movement in Zambia. It was envisaged that the study would provide evidence about FCs that could be used in the revision of the Cooperatives Act currently underway, aid MCTI understand the nature of Cooperatives and devise strategies for monitoring FCs. The study also aimed at providing information about the state of FCs that can used by the apex body of FCs and stakeholders such as Bank of Zambia.
Topic:: Regulation, Banks, Economic Development, and Financial Cooperatives
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

225. Infrastructures and Power in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Silvia Clombo and Eduard Soler I Lecha
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: Geopolitics is back. A more aggressive great power competition and the disruptive effects of new technologies have given new impetus to the analysis of the impact of geography on political decisions. Over the last decade, the Mediterranean and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have experienced profound and far-reaching social, political and economic transformations that have contributed to unprecedented levels of volatility and uncertainty. Some of these shifts have reshaped many of the traditional features of the geopolitical order in place in the region for decades, while others might have the potential to do so in the near future. Increased competition among regional actors but also new stakes by emerging global powers are redefining the contours of regional geopolitics and the way in which this region relates to broader global trends. Infrastructures is one of the areas where the effects of those global and regional dynamics are more visible and this is why a good grasp of the geopolitics of infrastructures can help us understand the broader geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and North Africa better. This is the main goal of this Joint Policy Study that ultimately aims to fill a gap in the scholarly work on the Mediterranean and the MENA region by delving into issues of geopolitical competition, conflict and cooperation from the point of view of the use of strategic infrastructures. This exercise continues and complements other collective endeavours, namely the MENARA project, which have sought to make sense of the acceleration of changes in the region since 2011 and have analysed them as a continuation of pre-existing trends and as part of larger transformations at a global scale. The geopolitical relevance of infrastructures is nothing new, as evidenced by the centuries-old competition for control of some strategic passageways such as the Strait of Gibraltar, the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, the Strait of Hormuz, the Straits of Tiran or the Suez Canal. While acknowledging some constant features, our analysis also takes into consideration the impact of new trends at the global and regional levels. Moreover, while the study of infrastructures has been a key feature in classical geopolitics, there are aspects often associated with critical geopolitics – the geopolitics of cooperation and the relevance of actors other than states such as transnational corporations, cities or civil society groups to provide a few examples that stand at the core of our analytical approach to the topic.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

226. A Review of the Performance of the 2020 National Budget

Author:: Mbewe Kalikeka
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: This briefing note provides a review of the performance of the 2020 National Budget. It also provides contexts of the macroeconomic fundamentals with bearing on the revenue and expenditure trends. The brief is based on an analysis of the fiscal tables of Government; it compares the 2020 approved budget allocations with the preliminary outturns for 2020, as well as the preliminary and actual outturns for 2019. The layout of this brief is as follows: Section 2 gives a brief overview of the macroeconomic performance in 2020. Section 3 and Section 4 shed light on the revenue and expenditure performance respectively. Section 5 concludes the brief and provides recommendations.
Topic:: Budget, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

227. Recalibrating US-Africa Policy

Author:: James Barnett
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: For better or worse, US-Africa policy will not be an urgent priority for the Biden-Harris administration when it takes office in January. Domestic challenges, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic and attendant economic crisis, will dominate the administration’s focus from day one. In the realm of foreign affairs, issues ranging from transatlantic relations to East Asian security are likely to command the attention of administration officials during its first months in office. Nevertheless, the day-to-day demands of the executive branch should hopefully not distract the new administration from the many challenges and opportunities Africa presents to US foreign policy. Some of these challenges are already being discussed in Washington, at least in broad terms. China’s continued efforts to build influence across Africa and the expansion of Salafi-jihadi insurgencies in various parts of the continent have been on the radar of US policymakers for several years. However, an exclusive focus on easily identifiable enemies and competitors misses the situation’s big picture and carries significant risks. Many of the impediments to US foreign policy in Africa are rooted in larger structural and ideological issues that Washington has little ability to affect in the short-term. Similarly, a black-and-white view of international politics elides the many ways external interventions impact Africa. For example, several of Washington’s Middle Eastern partners have waged proxy conflicts in East Africa that are detrimental to regional stability and, by extension, US interests. A better approach to US-Africa relations must begin, first and foremost, with a deeper understanding of the continent’s complex politics and its role within the wider international system.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and United States of America

228. A Post-Brexit Trade Policy for Development and a More Integrated Africa

Author:: Kimberly Ann Elliott
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The United Kingdom will confirm its departure from the European Union on 31st January 2020. As part of its independent trade policy, the government has committed to improve access to UK mar- kets for the poorest countries. This note sets out three ways it can do so: expanding duty-free market access while avoiding piecemeal trade agreements that undermine Africa’s own trade integration ef- forts; using an alternative framework for those trade agreements it does negotiate with developing countries; and supporting a “back-to-basics” multilateral negotiation at the World Trade Organiza- tion that could help to rebuild confidence in that institution and thus protect the interests of small and vulnerable countries. After a brief review of the background and context, it sets out specific pro- posals in each of these areas.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Africa, United Kingdom, and Europe

229. Implementing the Mop Barrier Assessment Methodology With the Zambia Police Service

Author:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: In the context of the Canadian-led Elsie Initiative aiming to reduce barriers for uniformed women in UN Peace Operations, DCAF has developed the Measuring Opportunities for Women in Peace Operations (MOWIP) methodology, in partnership with Cornell University and research institutions in eight troop- and police contributing countries across the world. The MOWIP methodology aims to provide institutions with the evidence base necessary to design effective interventions which substantially increase the number of women who deploy. While it is currently being piloted in 7 other countries, the MOWIP methodology was successfully implemented in Zambia with the Zambia Police Service (ZPS) between May 2019 and March 2020, in partnership with the Southern African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (SACCORD). This resource highlights the key takeaways from the process of implementing the MOWIP methodology in Zambia along with good practices and lessons learned at each stage, including the preparation phase, the data collection phase, the data analysis phase and the validation phase. It aims to provide guidance to TPCCs or security institutions interested in implementing the MOWIP methodology themselves regarding the resources and time commitment required, and outlines the outcomes and benefits of undergoing the Barrier Assessment for the ZPS.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Police, and Models
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

230. Political Vigilante Groups in Ghana's Democratic Governance: Some Policy Options

Author:: Justice Richard Kwabena Owusu Kyei
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This policy brief explores the activities of political vigilante groups in Ghana in relation to the Vigilantism and Related Offenses Law, 2019. It notes that contrary to the widespread perception of political vigilante groups as violent political actors, they contribute to Ghana’s stability and democratic peace. It therefore comes up with recommendations for inte- grating them into Ghana’s political and democratic architecture. Political vigilantism1 in Ghana dates back to the struggle for indepen- dence and the First Republic. The earliest of such groups, the Veranda Boys, was formed by Osagyefo Kwame Nkrumah, Ghana’s first prime minister and president. Political vigilante groups2 have featured in Ghana’s Four Republics (1960-1966; 1969-1972; 1979-1981 and 1993-Present). However, due to the short-lived nature of the first three Republics, their impact on the governance system could not be fully examined. Since the Fourth Republic has endured for over two decades, its longevity has provided adequate time for political vigilante groups to evolve and sit- uate themselves firmly in the political process. In the Fourth Republic these groups have coalesced around the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and National Democratic Congress (NDC). This policy brief argues that political vigilante groups cannot be branded only as violent and disruptive groups and disbanded on that basis. Rather they should be recognized as political actors with certain interests that are compatible with democratic gover- nance in Ghana. Their activities are pertinent to the enhancement of peace and democratic growth espe- cially at the local government level.
Topic:: Political Activism, Political stability, Peace, Independence, and Vigilantism
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

231. Promoting Reconciliation Among Post-genocide Second Generation Rwandans

Author:: Marie Grace Kagoyire
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: More than two decades after the genocide in Rwanda, the trauma is still haunt- ing some families and being transmitted from survivor parents to the next gen- eration. Within this time period, there have been interventions addressing the mental health needs of those traumatized by the genocide. Policies aimed at promoting reconciliation, while reducing tensions among former enemies to prevent future collective violence among citizens have also been implemented.1 This policy brief is based on the findings of a research project conducted in eastern Rwanda between July and November 2019. It involved interviews with genocide survivors who are now parents, descendants of genocide survivors aged between 18-25 years old, and staff from psycho-social and peacebuild- ing organizations. The study explored intergenerational trauma transmission from genocide survivor parents to their descendants born after the 1994 geno- cide and its implications for reconciliation.
Topic:: Genocide, Trauma, Reconciliation, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Rwanda

232. Deployment of Soldiers to Communities experiencing Gang Violence in South Africa: Policy Perspectives

Author:: Godfrey Maringira and Diana Gibson
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: The point of departure of this policy brief is the failure by the police to effec- tively deal with gang-related violence in the Western Cape and the deploy- ment of soldiers to the affected communities. It examines challenges linked to the deployment of soldiers in response to spiralling levels of urban violence and crime, which should normally fall within the purview of the police. The brief identifies the challenge of perception in black townships where soldiers are viewed as ‘strangers’ or outsiders, particularly by community leaders who are more knowledgeable and experienced in dealing with gang-related violence. Data collected during fieldwork in black townships point to the limitations of the military approach. In this regard, a case is made to the government to direct more resources towards community and non-governmental structures for combating gang-related violence. While we do not seek to over-romanticize the capacity of grassroots and non-governmental structures, there is sufficient evidence that the government and the police can tap into local knowledge, provide resources, and build capacities to effectively address gang-related violence. Community based and non-governmental organizations, which are active at the grassroots level, are often well placed to assist with social and economic interventions that can ameliorate circumstances which contribute to gang violence.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Violence, Local, and Gangs
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

233. Higher Education as a Pathway toward Peace in Burkina Faso: New Policy Perspectives

Author:: Dagan Rossini and Felicity Burgess
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: Higher education plays an important role in promoting inclusive democracies and driving social and economic change. Many African universities, however, face key structural challenges including limited Internet, outdated curricula, overburdened faculty, and archaic infrastructure. These systemic issues have been exacerbated by rising enrollment rates in the wake of global pressures to expand access and ensure quality of education for all. As governments and multilateral institutions look to capitalize on the continent’s demographic dividend, it is important to rethink, revitalize, and restructure African university systems, particularly in (post-)conflict settings. This policy brief is based on a report prepared for the Ministry of Higher Education, Scientific Research, and Innovation in Burkina Faso. It identifies a mismatch between the supply of skilled graduates and labor market demands, bearing in mind Burkina Faso’s ambition to become one of three main knowl- edge hubs in West Africa and the ongoing crisis in the Sahel region. Research was conducted between September 2019 and April 2020 and included three weeks of qualitative research in the capital city, Ouagadougou, involving focus groups and semi-structured interviews with 67 individuals. Findings suggest that increased collaboration between the education and economic sectors will enhance both student learning experiences and professional practices, thereby enabling more peaceful and democratic futures
Topic:: Education, Governance, Democracy, Peace, Higher Education, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Burkina Faso

234. Local Water Conflicts in Uganda: Options for Peacebuilding Policy and Practice

Author:: Resty Naiga
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This policy brief draws on the results of field-based research on water-related conflicts in Western Uganda to analyze the governance and institutional build- ing aspects of conflict prevention and peacebuilding. The brief provides policy and practical options on how to address governance aspects of peacebuild- ing in relation to local water conflicts.
Topic:: Water, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Local
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

235. From Bad To Worse? The Impact(s) of Covid-19 On Conflict Dynamics

Author:: Katariina Mustasilta
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: In December 2019, when the novel strain of coronavirus first hit the headlines, 12 countries in the world were experiencing organised violence on an extensive scale, with more than 100 incidents of violence and attacks against civilians recorded in that month. To most of these countries, the virus seemed a distant threat at the time. Yet, a few months and over 7 million recorded Covid-19 cases later, it has evolved from a distant threat to a stark reality. The global crisis – which has unleashed an emergency in the world’s public health, political, and economic systems simultaneously – has subjected even the most stable societies to unprecedented disruption. In conflict-affected countries, i.e. countries with ongoing conflicts or a high risk of relapse into conflict, and countries emerging from conflicts, the pandemic has added another layer on top of often multiple existing layers of crisis. Against the backdrop of expert warnings over the particular vulnerabilities of conflict-affected countries to Covid-19, this Brief analyses key emerging dynamics and repercussions in conflict-affected countries in general, and in five countries in particular: Colombia, Libya, Sudan, Ukraine and Yemen. The focus here is especially on conflicts and countries previously covered by our Conflict Series, so as to build on already accumulated analysis. The Brief identifies three main ways in which the global crisis impacts conflict-affected countries. First, the pandemic itself risks exacerbating inequalities and further burdening already vulnerable groups within conflict-affected societies. Second, local and external conflict parties are quick to capitalise on various opportunities arising from the policy responses to the crisis which also complicate peace and crisis management efforts. Third, the economic fallout puts severe strain on already weak state institutions and undermines governance outcomes (thus increasing the risk of conflict). Of these three dimensions, the policy responses and distraction created by the pandemic have thus far had the most significant repercussions for conflict dynamics, unfortunately often for the worse. The global scale of the crisis and its continuing evolution complicate efforts to seize momentum for peace and set the pandemic apart from previous catastrophic/disruptive events, such as the tsunami in 2004, that in some cases led to a positive shift in local conflict dynamics. The Brief is structured as follows: the main text analyses the emerging trends catalysed by the pandemic crisis in conflict-affected contexts, while the case study boxes discuss the unfolding processes in specific countries. The last section discusses the policy options for preventing further escalatory repercussions.
Topic:: War, Inequality, Conflict, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, Asia, South America, North Africa, North America, and Africa

236. Sahel Climate Conflicts? When (fighting) climate change fuels terrorism

Author:: Luca Raineri
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Levels of armed violence in the Sahel are skyrocketing. Conflict metrics show that the region is caught in a spiral of insecurity.1 Communal violence and jihadist insurgencies have significantly undermined local states’ grip over large parts of their territories, particularly in the three-border area straddling Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Amidst the proliferation of non-state armed groups, attacks by terrorist groups linked to al-Qaeda or the Islamic State networks have risen sharply since 2015. Policy and media discourses suggest that soaring terrorist violence is linked to, if not driven by, climatic and environmental factors. In the Sahelian context – the argument goes – in a region characterised by environmental degradation and sustained population growth, climate change has the potential to exacerbate competition over dwindling resources, fuelling conflict escalation and radicalisation. This narrative draws on global discourses about resource conflicts and climate wars, and contributes to shaping security and development policies targeting the Sahel. Climate change mitigation and environmental protection measures are thus seen as structural preconditions to tackle the root causes of the Sahel’s insecurity and rising (jihadist) violence. The idea that terrorism and climate change are somehow connected is a seductive one. It offers international donors the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone by addressing jointly what are arguably the most pressing issues facing the international community, thereby overcoming political divides. And it provides local governments with a narrative that depoliticises conflicts and downplays their own responsibilities. However, such simplistic Malthusian arguments that connect terrorism in the Sahel to climatic and environmental factors do not stand up to empirical scrutiny. Whether and how natural resources are associated with conflicts’ onsets and dynamics, and to what extent climate change has the potential to exacerbate these trends, are questions that remain highly contested. Just as much as with other issue-areas of climate change, there is no shortage of unsubstantiated misconceptions about climate and conflict, and environment and security more broadly. This Conflict Series Brief sets out to illustrate that misconceived environmental security policymaking, especially when based on rhetorical shortcuts that overlook and contradict the most recent evidence, is not only ineffective, but can have radically adverse impacts. Even if well-intentioned, climate change mitigation and environmental protection measures based on false premises may result in conflict exacerbation, rather than resolution: a situation that violent jihadist entrepreneurs exploit. To this end, the Brief scrutinises three programmes rolled out in the Sahel to fight desertification, prevent food crises, and preserve wildlife which have ended up contributing to the encroachment of terrorist groups in the region. The lessons learnt from these cases helps highlight the policy implications for existing and future efforts to fight violent extremism and promote sustainable development sponsored by the Sahel’s international partners, including the EU.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

237. Russia's Forays into Sub-Saharan Africa: Do you want to be my friend, again?

Author:: Giovanni Faleg and Stanislav Secrieru
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: In 1977, the Soviet Union’s leadership was in a jubilant mood as Ethiopia had just switched sides to the socialist camp. By the time of this event, the Kremlin had been conducting a renewed offensive on the continent for several years, propping up socialist regimes and ‘liberation movements’ in Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, Rhodesia (later Zimbabwe) and South Africa. Yet contrary to warnings that the Soviets might eventually ‘swallow’ all of sub-Saharan Africa, by 1990 the offensive had fizzled out: ideologically and financially broken, Moscow cut military aid, suspended credit lines, wound down diplomatic representations, closed cultural centres and ultimately withdrew political support. When rebel forces advanced towards Addis Ababa in 1991, Moscow stood idly by as the Derg regime – its former poster child – disintegrated. Over the course of the next two decades, post-Soviet Russia showed little interest in the sub-continent and only in the late 2010s did the Kremlin once again display the ambition to play a greater geopolitical role: sub-Saharan Africa remerged in Russian political discourse and trade and diplomatic traffic picked up. Simultaneously, Moscow revived alumni associations of Africans who studied in the Soviet Union and launched initiatives to lure more students to Russia. The Wagner Group – a military enterprise connected to the Russian state – also expanded its radius of action south of the Sahara. But what is driving Moscow’s renewed activism? How different it is from its previous diplomatic thrusts? Can a coherent strategy be discerned behind this push? Finally, how is sub-Saharan Africa reacting to Russia’s overtures and what does it mean for the EU?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Eurasia, and Sub-Saharan Africa

238. Conflict and Cooperation: Transitions in Modern Ethiopian-Sudanese Relations

Author:: John Young
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The Nile River bears considerably on inter-state relations among the countries through which it flows; with struggles over control of its waters driving the political undercurrents of the region. Ethiopia and Sudan exemplify such relations, shaped as much by the ebb and flow of the Nile as the rise and fall of the regimes that have governed them. This Briefing Paper by the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project analyzes this relationship and its place in a politically dynamic and evolving region. Conflict and Cooperation: Transitions in Modern Ethiopian–Sudanese Relations finds that the cold war both shaped and was itself shaped by the conflicts within and between the two countries. Following the end of the cold war, relations considerably improved under President Omar al-Bashir in Sudan and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in Ethiopia. However, the recent emergence of new governments in both countries does not guarantee a cordial relationship in the future as on-going political reforms, internal threats, and external influences from powerful states weigh heavily on both countries.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and Ethiopia

239. A Missing Mandate? Casualty Recording in UN Peace Operations

Author:: Hana Salama
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: UN peace operations are uniquely positioned—and mandated—to collect and monitor data on conflict-related casualties. Through the collection and analysis of this type of data, UN missions can both improve the effectiveness of peace operations and assist the international effort among UN Member States to achieve progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16—particularly Indicator 16.1.2 on conflict-related deaths. This Briefing Paper by the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) and Human Security Baseline Assessment in Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) projects examines the current capacity of UN peace operations as data providers. A Missing Mandate? Casualty Recording in UN Peace Operations reviews current practices of data collection in UN operational settings and provides case studies through three UN peace operations in the DRC, Mali, and South Sudan. The paper, authored by casualty recording expert Hana Salama, concludes that UN missions already do much of the work required but lack the effectual mandate, resources, and coordination to ensure that the information is useful for the purpose of the SDGs.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Sustainable Development Goals, Conflict, Peace, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and South Sudan

240. Hollow Promises: The Risks of Military Integration in Western Equatoria

Author:: Flora McCrone
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: In 2018, the Government of the Republic of South Sudan (GoSS), the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), and the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) signed the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). As part of the transitional security arrangements within the R-ARCSS framework, all warring parties agreed to assemble combatants in designated cantonment sites to facilitate their training, and later, integration into a new ‘unity’ army or other national security services. A Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project examines the process of cantonment and the challenges in operationalizing the Agreement. Hollow Promises: The Risks of Military Integration in Western Equatoria describes the transitional security arrangements of the R-ARCSS and the scope of force sizes to be cantoned. It follows with a case study of Western Equatoria’s Arrow Boys, demonstrating how their involvement exposes some of the fault-lines within the broader integration process. The Briefing Paper finds that the implementation of the R-ARCSS is leading to deteriorating local security, community cohesion, and stability.
Topic:: Security, Treaties and Agreements, Military Affairs, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

241. Tri-border Transit: Trafficking and Smuggling in the Burkina Faso–Côte d’Ivoire–Mali Region

Author:: Roberto Sollazzo and Matthias Nowak
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: The tri-border area between Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Mali has long been an important zone of commerce for West Africa, and a key transit route for the trade flowing between the Gulf of Guinea, the Sahara, Sahel, and Mediterranean. In recent years, however, smuggling and trafficking has risen in the subregion because of the growing demand for illicit goods and firearms. This demand is fueled by communities’ need for self-defense due to banditry and the increased presence of jihadist groups; needs of traditional hunters and non-state security providers; and the ecosystem around artisanal and small-scale gold mining in which criminals seek weapons to target the miners who in turn equip themselves with firearms for protection against attacks. These dynamics heighten the risk of insecurity and instability. Tri-border Transit: Trafficking and Smuggling in the Burkina Faso–Côte d’Ivoire–Mali Region, by the Survey's Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project, takes a detailed look at the actors enabling smuggling and arms trafficking in the region, identifies the drivers of this traffic, and analyzes the impacts on local communities. The paper finds that there are three key trafficking axes in the area and that states are largely unable to control their borders and prevent these activities. The study also shows that illicit firearms are often trafficked together with other smuggled goods such as gold or drugs, using the ant trade method.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons, Political stability, Trafficking, and Smuggling
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Côte d'Ivoire, and Burkina Faso

242. Consumer Expenditure Inequality in Botswana

Author:: Lillian Mookodi
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: For over three decades, Botswana has achieved a fast growing economy, with an annual growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaging 10.9 percent in the period 1981- 90, faster even than the East Asian Tigers or China (Good and Hughes, 2002). Between 2000 and 2001 financial year, Botswana’s economy recorded higher growth rates of 9.1 percent, an increase from 8.1 percent recorded between 1999 and 2000, which was mainly attributed to the growth in the mining sector (BIDPA Briefing, 2002). To emphasise on the desire to continue growing, Botswana has adopted Vision 2036, and other development strategies and policies to improve the implementation of interventions tackling unsatisfactory social indicators. Botswana has also subscribed to both continental and international frameworks, such as the Africa Agenda 2063 and United Nations (UN) Millennium Declaration and its Eight Millennium Development Goals, and further signed up for the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of 2030. Regardless of the afore-mentioned positive growth, and immense efforts, the country has not achieved the desirable results it sought with regard to some of the social indicators, such as employment, unemployment, inequality and poverty.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Poverty, Labor Issues, Inequality, Demand, Unemployment, and Consumerism
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

243. Burundi’s Institutional Landscape after the 2020 Elections

Author:: Stef Vandeginste
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Burundi’s forthcoming elections mark the next stage in the implementation of the Constitution of 7 June 2018. Four key institutional innovations, situated mostly at the level of the executive branch, will take effect after the elections. Contrary to the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement of August 2000 and the Constitution of 18 March 2005, the 2018 Constitution no longer requires the establishment of a coalition government. While re- introducing a prime minister, the new constitution also enhances presidential powers. Furthermore, the 2018 Constitution has an immediate and longer-term impact on the use of ethnic quotas
Topic:: Elections, Constitution, Leadership, Ethnicity, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Africa and Burundi

244. Context matters – Why Africa should Tailor its own Measures to fight COVID-19

Author:: Nina Wilen
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: African governments have been faster than most of their European counterparts in imposing measures to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak despite dealing with numerous other challenges. However, context matters, and for Africa, the political and socioeconomic consequences of the lockdown measures may cause more havoc than the actual virus. This brief identifies political, economic and social risks related to coronavirus responses in Africa and emphasises the disproportionate burden carried by women. It argues that localised measures, which include dialogue, transparency and flexibility, may be the only realistic way forward, while underlining the need for wealthier states to provide generous aid packages, debt cancellations and continued investments, in spite of current challenges, in order for Africa to pull through yet another challenge.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

245. Going the Extra Mile for the 2020 Elections in the Central African Republic

Author:: Peter Knoope, Stephen Buchanan-Clarke, and Valerie Arnould
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The upcoming 2020 presidential election in the Central African Republic (CAR) has the potential to derail the implementation of the 2019 Khartoum Peace Agreement and bring about a return to widespread conflict. This calls for immediate and collaborative action to be taken by those national, regional, and international actors working for peace in the country. This policy brief aims to outline some of the key risks posed by the upcoming elections and provide recommendations to mitigate their potential to negatively impact on ongoing peace and reconciliation efforts.
Topic:: Security, Elections, Peace, Voting, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa and Central African Republic

246. Ghana’s Oil Sales: Using Commodity Trading Data for Accountability

Author:: Alexander Malden and Denis Gyeyir
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic has severely impacted the Ghanaian economy, with the IMF projecting that growth will slow to just 1.5 percent in 2020 compared to December 2019’s projection of 5.8 percent. The country, like many oil-rich states, is facing the challenge of responding to the pandemic with reduced government revenues resulting from the oil price crash. The coronavirus has also exacerbated the country’s debt sustainability issues, which were already on the rise prior to the pandemic. Ghana is still a relatively new oil producer, with first production from its Jubilee field occurring in November 2010 and the first cargo sold in early 2011. However, the sector represents a significant source of revenue. Ghana’s oil revenues totaled USD 938 million in 2019. Around USD 802 million of this amount, or 86 percent, came from cargos of oil sold by the Ghana National Petroleum Company (GNPC). This oil represents the state’s share of production that it derives from in-kind royalty payments and GNPC’s carried and participating interest (CAPI) in the three oil-producing projects in the country. GNPC oil sales equaled a full nine percent of Ghana’s government revenue in 2019. Responding to the pandemic with reduced government revenues makes it more important than ever that citizens are able to analyze GNPC’s oil sales activities. In this context, in this report the authors demonstrate how publicly available data on the state’s oil sales activities can be used by civil society organizations (CSOs), government, media and other oversight actors to hold the government, GNPC and trading companies accountable for how they sell and manage Ghana’s oil and its revenues. Commodity trading activities are often opaque and do not receive the same level of scrutiny as a state’s upstream operations. This opacity can create opportunities for governance and corruption risks that result in the loss and mismanagement of potential revenues. However, Ghana is one of the most transparent countries in reporting on its commodity trading activities. GNPC, the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Ghana, the Public Interest and Accountability Committee and Ghana Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (GHEITI) all disclose information on the state’s oil sales activities. As one example, the MoF has disclosed information on the volume, unit price, date of sale and value for every cargo sold by GNPC to date.
Topic:: Debt, Oil, Accountability, Commodities, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

247. DRC’s Mining Revenues: Increasing Accountability by Analyzing Payments to Governments Reports

Author:: Kaisa Toroskainen, Alexander Malden, and Jean Pierre Okenda
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: This report explores the payments made by ten international mining companies to Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) government entities since 2015. These payments, amounting to $2 billion, have been disclosed under European Union (EU), Canadian and United Kingdom (U.K.) laws. DRC government agencies can use this data to report on revenues as the country’s mining code requires. Civil society actors, auditors and international partners, notably the International Monetary Fund, can also benefit from using payments data to monitor critical policy and governance issues in the DRC.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Accountability, Mining, and IMF
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

248. What US strategy gets wrong about China in Africa

Author:: Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The Trump administration’s Africa strategy is rooted in three misconceptions about China’s African footprint—and a fourth about US-Africa economic relations—that are either factually incorrect or overstated in terms of the broader strategic challenges they pose to US interests: (1) Chinese engagement in Africa crowds out opportunities for trade and investment with and from the United States; (2) Chinese engagement in Africa is resource-seeking—to the detriment of US interests; (3) Chinese engagement in Africa is designed to foster debt-based coercive diplomacy; and (4) US-Africa economic linkages are all one-way and concessionary (i.e., aid-based). Hendrix finds little evidence to suggest Chinese trade and investment ties crowd out US trade and investment opportunities. China’s resource-seeking bent is evident in investment patterns, but it is more a function of Africa’s having comparatively large, undercapitalized resource endowments than China’s attempt to corner commodity markets. Chinese infrastructural development—particularly large projects associated with the Belt and Road Initiative—may result in increased African indebtedness to the Chinese, but there is little reason to think debt per se will vastly expand Chinese military capacity in the region. And finally, US-Africa economic relations are much less one-sided and concessionary (i.e., aid-based) than conventional wisdom suggests.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Economy, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Africa, China, North America, and United States of America

249. Sharing the Burden: Lessons from the European Return to Multidimensional Peacekeeping

Author:: Arthur Boutellis and Michael Beary
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Since 2013, after years of near absence from the continent, a number of European countries, along with Canada, have again deployed to UN peacekeeping missions in Africa. The European presence in UN peacekeeping in Africa is now nearly at its largest since the mid-1990s. These countries provide much-needed high-end capabilities, as well as political and financial capital, to UN peacekeeping operations. Nonetheless, securing and sustaining European contributions to these types of peacekeeping operations remains an uphill battle for the UN. This paper draws lessons from this renewed engagement by European countries and Canada, both from their point of view, as well as from that of the UN Secretariat, UN field missions, and other troop contributors. It aims to explore how these bodies and other countries can best work together in a collective endeavor to improve UN peacekeeping’s efficiency and effectiveness. Toward this end, the paper recommends a number of actions to the UN Secretariat: Build peacekeeping operations around first-class medical systems; Focus on improving processes for casualty evacuation; Strengthen the UN’s capacity to foster partnerships among troop-contributing countries; Engage Europe strategically and politically; Be flexible and make European contributors (and others) feel included in planning; Continue educating European contributors about UN peacekeeping; Do not limit engagement with European contributors to high-end capabilities; Ensure European contributors adhere to UN standards; and Encourage European contributors to commit to longer deployments.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Canada

250. Protection through Policing: The Protective Role of UN Police in Peace Operations

Author:: Charles T. Hunt
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Since first deployed in 1960, United Nations police (UNPOL) have consistently been present in UN missions and have become increasingly important to achieving mission objectives. Since 1999, these objectives have often included the protection of civilians (POC), especially in places like the Central African Republic, Darfur, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and South Sudan. But despite its rise in prominence, the protective role of UNPOL is generally undervalued and regularly overlooked, and missions have tended to overly rely on militarized approaches to POC. This report examines the roles and responsibilities of UNPOL regarding POC. It outlines UNPOL’s contributions to POC and perceived comparative advantages, using examples of their role as compeller, deterrent, partner, and enabler. It also identifies and draws lessons from challenges to police protection efforts, including ambiguous mandates, policies, and guidance; poor coordination; problematic partnerships; and deficits in capabilities, capacities, and tools. Drawing on these lessons from past and current deployments, the report proposes recommendations for how member states, the Security Council, the UN Secretariat, and field missions can improve UNPOL’s efforts to protect civilians going forward. These recommendations include: Clarifying the role of UN police in POC through mandates, policies, guidance, and training to align the expectations of UN peace operations, the Secretariat, and member states for what UNPOL are expected to do; Involving all UN police in POC and giving them a voice in decision making and planning to infuse whole-of-mission POC efforts with policing perspectives and empower UNPOL to act more readily; Enhancing partnerships between UN police, host states, and other mission components to enable more responsive, better coordinated, and more comprehensive approaches to POC; and Providing more appropriate and more flexible capabilities, capacities, and tools to address critical capabilities gaps and adapt existing resources to better meet UNPOL’s latent potential for POC.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Reform, Rule of Law, Civilians, and Police
Political Geography:: Africa, Darfur, Mali, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Congo

251. Sustaining Peace in Burkina Faso: Responding to an Emerging Crisis

Author:: Christian Lara and Gabriel Delsol
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: In 2017, the UN launched a system-wide effort to support the implementation of the sustaining peace agenda in Burkina Faso. Since then, a rapidly deteriorating security situation and an imminent humanitarian crisis have forced the UN, the Burkinabe government, and their partners to recalibrate their efforts. This ongoing recalibration, together with the changes resulting from the UN development system reforms, makes this an opportune moment to assess the state of efforts to sustain peace in Burkina Faso. This paper examines the implementation of the UN’s peacebuilding and sustaining peace framework in Burkina Faso, looking at what has been done and what is still needed. It focuses on the four issue areas highlighted in the secretary-general’s 2018 report on peacebuilding and sustaining peace: operational and policy coherence; leadership at the UN country level; partnerships with local and regional actors; and international support. Burkina Faso provides lessons for how the UN’s sustaining peace efforts can respond to growing needs without a change in mandate. Continued support for the UN resident coordinator in Burkina Faso is necessary to ensure that these efforts are part of a holistic approach to the crisis, together with local, national, and regional partners. Such support could underpin Burkina Faso’s status as a buffer against spreading insecurity in the Sahel and make the country a model for the implementation of the sustaining peace agenda in conflict-prone settings without UN missions.
Topic:: Development, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Peace, Sustainability, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Burkina Faso

252. Operationalizing the Sustaining Peace Agenda: Lessons from Burkina Faso, Liberia, and Papua New Guinea

Author:: Agathe Sarfati
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The twin resolutions on peacebuilding and sustaining peace adopted by the General Assembly and Security Council in 2016 made a breakthrough in the UN’s conception of peacebuilding. Significant work has since been undertaken to reconfigure the UN system to work toward the implementation of these resolutions, and the UN Peacebuilding Commission has launched a comprehensive review of the peacebuilding architecture to be completed in 2020. To inform this review, this issue brief synthesizes findings related to the operationalization of the peacebuilding and sustaining peace resolutions at the country level. These findings emerged from three case studies published by IPI on Liberia, Papua New Guinea, and Burkina Faso. The operationalization of sustaining peace is assessed across four areas: (1) operational and policy coherence; (2) leadership, accountability, and capacity; (3) financing; and (4) partnerships. The paper concludes that much of the focus to date has been on improving the effectiveness of how the UN delivers its mandates on peacebuilding and sustaining peace. To fully realize the vision of the sustaining peace agenda, its operationalization must increasingly focus on the impact of these efforts. This requires questioning and testing the theory of change underpinning these operational reforms to ensure the UN is effectively helping societies build the foundation for sustaining peace.
Topic:: United Nations, Peace, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Africa, Liberia, Papua New Guinea, and Burkina Faso

253. China, Africa and the WHO : a challenge for post covid19 multilateralism

Author:: Valerie Niquet
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
Abstract:: China plays a significant role in Africa, particularly in Ethiopia, where the current Director-General of the WHO was Minister of Health and then Minister of Foreign Affairs. This opaque influence and the support given by Beijing to Dr. Tedros seems to have weighed on the positions taken by the WHO in the face of the Covid 19 crisis. The consequences of these decisions are now being felt worldwide and contribute to undermining the credibility of a fragile multilateral system.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, United Nations, World Health Organization, Multilateralism, Soft Power, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

254. Al-Shabaab Attacks Spike, as COVID-19 Grips the World

Author:: Sunguta West
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: Al-Shabaab’s recent attack targeting Somalia’s head of the military is the latest indication of the Islamist militant group’s growing confidence in its battle for control of the war-torn country in the Horn of Africa. Al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda affiliate in East Africa, has been waging a deadly insurgency in the country for 14 years. Its weapons of choice have ranged from improvised explosive devices (IED) and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), to deploying suicide bombers to target security forces, public installations, and government officials. Its war is largely asymmetrical, where it also relies on hit and run attacks, assassinations, and grenade attacks.
Topic:: Terrorism, Islamism, Al Shabaab, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

255. Making the most of Prosper Africa: Leveraging US competitiveness in African markets

Author:: Audrey Hruby
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Global powers are jockeying for access to opportunities in African markets. In recent years, through the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, the Tokyo International Conference of African Development, the Russia-Africa Summit, and many others, the world’s largest economies have sought to make headway in what are seen as fast-growing and lucrative new markets. In this environment, effective United States (US)-Africa policy requires greater focus on areas of American competitiveness and concerted efforts to educate, mobilize, and support US commercial success in African markets. In this update of her 2017 issue brief “Escaping China’s shadow: Finding America’s competitive edge in Africa,” Senior Fellow Aubrey Hruby outlines recommendations for how to best utilize Prosper Africa and leverage American private sector competitiveness by focusing efforts on sectors in which the United States already leads.
Topic:: Global Markets, Economy, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and United States of America

256. A Moving Frontline in Africa

Author:: Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde and Peer Schouten
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Pastoralism is the key to climate change adaptation in African drylands, but it is threatened by conflicts with farmers, regional insecurity and violent extremism. Stabilisation and development efforts should place pastoralism at the centre by strengthening pastoral livelihoods and should include herders as peacebuilding and development partners. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ Strengthen pastoralist capacities to cope with risk and variability by boosting inclusive and equitable resource governance in new development programmes. ■ Include pastoralists as potential peace-builders in conflict resolution efforts. ■ Support dialogue between pastoralists and local and national governments in order to prevent the further marginalisation of vulnerable pastoralist groups.
Topic:: Climate Change, Democratization, Development, Environment, Migration, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Economy, Conflict, Investment, Peace, and Land Rights
Political Geography:: Africa

257. The Traumas of Ethiopian Male Migrants: Re-integration efforts must put vulnerabilities at the centre

Author:: Adam Moe Fejerskov and Meron Zeleke
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Every year, several hundred thousand migrants return to Ethiopia, where they struggle to integrate back into society. They must deal with the traumatic events of their journeys while also facing social stigma and exclusion. KEY FINDINGS ■ All Ethiopian migrants using irregular routes have experienced or witnessed violence and trauma ■ Sexual violence and abuse are widespread among Ethiopian male migrants yet taboo, and psychosocial support should address the vulnerabilities of men ■ Livelihood interventions should address the problem of social stigma ■ Re-integration is difficult as social positions and relationships will never be as they were before migration
Topic:: Development, Migration, Border Control, and Fragile States
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

258. What Next for UN Peace Operations? Global crisis management in a post-COVID-19 world

Author:: Richard Gowan and Louise Riis Andersen
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: With a global recession looming due to COVID-19,the large blue-helmet UN missions will be harder to sustain, both financially and politically. So the UN is learning to “think small”. Recommendations ■ The Secretariat should work with member states to improve the UN’s mechanisms for deploying bespoke, case-specific peace operations and SPMs at short notice. ■ Member states should stand ready to deploy small numbers of military and police personnel to serve in more flexible forms of UN operations and to offer specialized expertise and training as requested. ■ Member states should pay their respective share of the UN peacekeeping budget on time and increase their voluntary contributions.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, and South Sudan

259. Decentralisation amidst hybrid governance: The case of northern Mali

Author:: Anna Schmauder
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Malian peace agreement of 2015, known as the Algiers Agreement, aimed to improve relations between select representatives of northern Mali and central state authorities through decentralisation. Yet, in contrast to ongoing counterterrorism efforts, governance reform through the decentralisation process has received little attention from either the Malian government or its international partners. As a consequence, effective decentralisation in northern regions remains limited at this point in time. This policy brief contributes to the debate on decentralisation in Mali by illustrating how decentralisation in northern Mali has become an issue of contestation between central state authorities and armed signatories. Decentralisation remains captured in a logic of territorial control, in which the representation of armed signatories takes precedence before the needs and interests of marginalised tribes and communities in northern regions. Central state authorities and signatories have been reinforcing this logic of representation, each trying to hamper the influence of the other over territorial control in northern regions.
Topic:: Governance, Fragile States, Conflict, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

260. COVID-19 Impact on West African Value Chains

Author:: Loïc Bisson
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Countries in West Africa were quick to take strong prevention and mitigation measures to stem the spread of COVID-19. But border closure, curfew, market closure and limited internal movement already impact key value chains in the region and threaten livelihoods. It risks lowering decent working conditions and labour rights and increasing child labour and gender violence. Informal, migrant and female workers are especially at risk and are likely to take the brunt of the economic downturn. Disruptions in the food value chain also endangers food security in the region. Instability in West Africa threatens both European and Dutch economic, security and geopolitical interests. By virtue of being involved in various West African value chains, European and Dutch consumers and companies bear both leverage and responsibilities in regard to secure livelihoods, good working conditions free of gender violence and respect for labour rights in West Africa.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Fragile States, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

261. Improving decentralised natural resource management in the Sahel: The case of the Sourou river plain in Mali

Author:: Fransje Molenaar
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Over the course of 2019, and despite being located in a region marked by violent conflict, the Inter collectivité du Sourou achieved a unique feat in the West African region. It developed an Integrated and Sustainable Development Programme (ISDP) that defined concrete actions to implement the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the Sourou river plain in Mali in an adaptive fashion and set itself up as the main coordinator for the implementation of this plan. Both achievements will help the region coordinate natural resource management – thereby addressing one of the region’s root causes of conflict. This policy brief outlines how the effective devolution of power was achieved through an inclusive rather than a ‘rubber stamp’ approach to the planning process and by having a donor that made the improvement of local governance a result of its own intrinsic value. For the long- term implementation of the ISDP, care should be taken to ensure the continued inclusivity and representativeness of local development and resource management while remaining mindful of the interaction of this new governance structure with existing governance and power structures.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Governance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, and Sahel

262. When pandemic meets poverty: Pandemonium for pastoralists in the Sahel

Author:: Loïc Bisson
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In the Sahel, market closures, border closures and movement restrictions to stop the spread of COVID-19 have disrupted the structurally weak pastoral sector, already made vulnerable by conflict. There are several signs of the negative impacts of COVID-19, such as difficulties in moving food and people, poor access to markets, rising food prices and loss of livelihoods. In Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad, the pandemic adds to ongoing problems of conflict and political instability. The threat to pastoralists is to lose their herds through overgrazing, zoo-sanitary diseases or lack of income to feed the animals. If pastoralists go bankrupt, they could be forced to sell their livestock at devastatingly low prices to large landholders or wealthy neo-pastoralists. This scenario would aggravate an already-growing trend in the region – escalating economic inequality and the consolidation of wealth among an elite. This risks fuelling inequality and deepening existing fault lines. The priority for Sahelian governments should be clear: keep food coming and people moving, and develop a post-COVID-19 strategy to tackle the vulnerabilities revealed by the pandemic.
Topic:: Agriculture, Poverty, Conflict, Pastoralism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

263. Moment of truth: Mali teeters between President Keïta and the protest movement

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: President Keïta is currently facing a mass movement demanding he step down. Decrying rampant corruption, election rigging, a collapsing economy and rising unemployment, a lack of security, and ethnic conflict, the movement sees his ouster as the first step toward a fourth republic and democracy.
Topic:: Corruption, Democracy, Protests, and Unemployment
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

264. The fourth coup: Mali between peaceful transition and security vacuum

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: A group of Malian soldiers overthrew President Keita and formed a committee to lead the country. This was welcomed internally and denounced externally. However, their mission now faces domestic and foreign pressures that necessitate them to find a consensual solution to this crisis.
Topic:: Security, Coup, Peace, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

265. Freedom under Siege: Freedom of Association and Assembly in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Selby Xinwa
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This briefing paper provides an overview of the shrinking civic space as well as the situation on the violations of the rights to freedom of association and assembly in sub-Saharan Africa. It also highlights innovation and strategic advocacy approaches employed by sub-Saharan Africa's civil society to defend their civic participation space.
Topic:: Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Advocacy, Civil Liberties, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

266. Learning Together: A Guide for Feminist Practice in Violence Against Women and Girls Research Collaborations

Author:: Leah Goldmann, Elizabeth Dartnall, Anik Gevers, Edgar Karungi, Lori Michau, Janet Nakuti, and Sophie Namy
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:: Prevention of and response to violence against women and girls (VAWG) has become more prioritized at the global level in the past decade, with recognition of the pressing need to create safer environments for women and girls around the world. This is a welcome development, building on years of feminist activism and research in the Global South
Topic:: Women, Research, Sexual Violence, and Collaborative Learning
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

267. The Twentieth Anniversary of UNSCR 1325: What’s next in the era of COVID-19?

Author:: Helen Scanlon, Pravina Makan-Lakha, and Molly Hamilton
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The year 2020 marked two milestones for women’s rights and the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda: the 25th anniversary of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, as well as the 20th anniversary of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 (UNSCR 1325). Both of these international commitments stressed the importance of advancing women’s rights, particularly in relation to their participation efforts to achieve peace and security. However, the COVID-19 pandemic derailed existing plans to mark these achievements. Instead of allowing the pandemic to further disrupt the strides that have been made to advance women’s human rights over the last two decades, it is critical that peace and security activists reframe the circumstances created by the pandemic as an opportunity to secure meaningful change. Within this context, this Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) will critique the progress made in the WPS’ agenda since the adoption of UNSCR 1325 and provide African perspectives on what should be prioritised over the next 20 years.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Women, Peace, COVID-19, and WPS
Political Geography:: Africa

268. Policy implications of empirically estimated fiscal multipliers for South Africa

Author:: Johannes Hermanus Kemp and Hylton Hollander
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Despite the frequent use of fiscal policy for stabilization purposes, there remains significant uncertainty regarding the impact of fiscal policy decisions on macroeconomic outcomes. This impact is quantified by calculating fiscal multipliers. A fiscal multiplier measures the impact of government’s tax and spending decisions on economic output.
Topic:: Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

269. Mining for change How can natural resources support inclusive growth in Africa

Author:: John Page and Finn Tarp
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: For a growing number of countries in Africa the discovery of natural resources is a great opportunity, but one accompanied by considerable risks. There is an extensive literature linking natural resource dependence to poor economic performance. One cause is that resource-abundant economies tend to have economic and export structures that are highly concentrated on only few export products. Most of Africa’s resource-rich economies experienced increases in export concentration during the first decade of the twenty-first century.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Natural Resources, Economic Growth, Mining, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa

270. Localizing the 2030 Agenda in West Africa: Building on What Works

Author:: Jimena Leiva Roesch and Masooma Rahmaty
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Despite advancement in some areas, countries around the world are still not on track to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The transformation needed to achieve these goals depends on innovation and initiatives that build on existing capacities and fit the needs of local contexts, yet the 2030 Agenda remains largely unknown at the local level. Therefore, a key avenue for progress is to move the focus below the national level to the subnational level, including cities and communities. Toward this end, together with partners including the UN Trust Fund for Human Security and the Government of The Gambia, the International Peace Institute hosted a forum in Banjul on “Localizing the 2030 Agenda: Building on What Works” in October 2019. This forum provided a platform for learning and sharing among a diverse group of stakeholders, including government officials from both the national and municipal levels, UN resident coordinators, and civil society representatives. Drawing on the discussions at the forum, this report highlights the path some West African countries have taken toward developing locally-led strategies for implementing the 2030 Agenda. It focuses in particular on four key factors for these strategies: ownership across all levels of society; decentralization; coordination, integration, and alignment; and mobilization of resources to support implementation at the local level.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Sustainable Development Goals, Regional Integration, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

271. Beyond 2020: Exploring the Potential for a Strong UN-AU Peacebuilding Partnership

Author:: Priyal Singh and Daniel Forti
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Effective and sustainable multilateral peace and security initiatives in Africa depend on a strong partnership between the United Nations and the African Union. While their strategic partnership has grown since 2017, collective peacebuilding efforts still lag behind cooperation in other areas. Different institutional mandates, policy frameworks, and operational practices have led them to carve out distinct roles in the multilateral peacebuilding space, often impeding closer cooperation. This report—a joint publication of IPI and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS)—analyzes the UN and AU’s approaches to peacebuilding and identifies opportunities for a more robust and effective peacebuilding partnership. These include aligning their political strategies, fostering cooperation between the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) and the UN Peacebuilding Commission (UNPBC), reconciling differences in their peacebuilding approaches, securing sustainable financing, and capitalizing on emergent peacebuilding approaches. The paper concludes with recommendations for UN and AU member states and officials: UN and AU member states should build consensus around shared peacebuilding concerns, better institutionalize the working relationship between the AUPSC and the UN Africa Group, and strengthen implementation of the recommendations from the 2018 meeting between the AUPSC and UNPBC. UN and AU officials should include peacebuilding and development personnel in annual engagements on peace and security, explore opportunities for joint analysis and planning for peacebuilding activities, and share more analysis and expertise at the working level.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, United Nations, Peace, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa

272. UN Peacekeeping Operations and Pastoralism-Related Insecurity: Adopting a Coordinated Approach for the Sahel

Author:: Gabriel Delsol
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: In recent years, pastoralism has increasingly become associated with violent conflict. In the Sahel, pastoralism-related insecurity is directly linked to macro-level conflict dynamics in contexts with UN peacekeeping missions, including Mali, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Darfur, Abyei, and South Sudan. However, the UN system has been slow to adopt a coordinated response to this phenomenon. This issue brief provides a preliminary overview of peacekeeping missions’ efforts to mitigate growing pastoralism-related insecurity in their areas of operation. It analyzes six missions that are active within or near the Sahel region. After framing pastoralism-related security, it explores how the Security Council has addressed this issue in mission mandates. It then looks at how missions have tried to address pastoralism-related insecurity and how they can leverage partnerships with other actors as part of a multi-stakeholder approach. The paper concludes that while peacekeeping missions are not the primary means for addressing the multidimensional drivers of pastoralism-related insecurity, they can help mitigate risks, including through political and logistical support to other actors. Together with these partners, peacekeeping missions should leverage their comparative advantages to help address pastoralism-related insecurity in the Sahel.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Pastoralism
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

273. Eritrean refugees struggle after the peace agreement with Ethiopia: Peace and Plight

Author:: Hans Lucht and Tekalign Ayalew Mengiste
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Following the 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea more than 60,000 Eritrean refugees arrived in Ethiopia. Thousands continue to arrive every month. They live under harsh conditions that call for humanitarian action. KEY TAKEAWAYS: Vulnerable Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia, women, elderly, disabled, and children need urgent humanitarian assistance, including shelters, food, water, sanitation, energy, and health care. Funds are needed for UNHCR, partner organizations, and ARRA to address continuous refugee arrivals in Ethiopia and the challenges posed by COVID-19. Donor countries should put pressure on Ethiopia to reintroduce prima facie recognition and allow access to protection, while resettlement quotas abroad should be increased. Humanitarian support and emergency shelters should be provided in transit locations for smuggled and trafficked Eritreans in need of urgent protection.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Treaties and Agreements, Refugees, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

274. Internally displaced people in Mali's capital city: When a crisis turns chronic

Author:: Boukary Sangaré and Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: As world attention focuses on Central Mali’s conflict hot spots, more than 50,000 of the country’s 311,193 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have fled to Mali’s southern cities, including the capital Bamako. The inhuman conditions in the informal IDP camps manifest an overall failure to protect civilians despite the presence of more than 25,000 foreign soldiers, 13,000 of whom are UN peace keepers. To support peacekeeping efforts, long-term development investment must be complemented with short-term assistance to provide protection, food and shelter to Mali’s most vulnerable victims of war. RECOMMENDATIONS: Mali needs to develop and implement a national strategy that respects the rights of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to make free, informed and voluntary choices of settlement. Long-term development assistance must be complemented with flexible, immediate and short-term assistance to the most vulnerable IDPs. Access to accommodation, jobs and health facilities is needed to avoid precarious survival strategies, such as street begging, child marriage and survival sex.
Topic:: Development, Displacement, Crisis Management, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

275. An International Partnership for Sudan’s Transition: Mobilizing Support, Preventing Instability

Author:: Gerrit Kurtz
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Germany has helped lead efforts to mobilize international support for Sudan’s transition process since President al-Bashir was ousted last year. To be successful, Germany and its partners must deliver on their promises to support the transitional government’s economic reforms with substantial aid. They should keep Sudan’s diverse partners aligned while broadening their outreach. Sudan is thus a test case for how much political capital Germany will spend on its stated objective of conflict prevention.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Government, Partnerships, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Sudan, and Germany

276. How Much Lockdown is Enough?

Author:: Sarah Cliffe, Paul von Chamier, and Nendirmwa Noel
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: Lockdown measures have been an integral tool in the fight against COVID-19. But they come at a high cost, given their impacts on economies, employment and incomes, education, food systems, mental health and even the potential for civil unrest. This policy briefing by Sarah Cliffe, Paul von Chamier, and Nendirmwa Noel examines how countries are balancing the need for lockdown with policy measures to alleviate their effects and plans for reopening. It provides comparative data on the stringency of lockdowns, showing that while there has been a convergence towards more stringent measures over time, there is also wide variation among countries—even among those in the same region, or income group. A brief case study of Sierra Leone and snapshot examples of policy from ten other countries illustrates the range of answers to the question of how much lockdown is enough.
Topic:: Employment, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Sierra Leone, and Global Focus

277. Mapping African regional cooperation: How to navigate Africa’s institutional landscape

Author:: Amandine Gnanguênon
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Regional organisations have proliferated in Africa in recent decades, with many organisations attempting to address similar issues in similar parts of the continent. International donors have helped create this situation by funding new and existing African regional organisations without questioning the downsides of doing so. In recent years, African regional organisations have increasingly sought to concentrate on security issues, contributing to a rise in the use of ‘hard security’ solutions at the expense of ‘people-centred’ approaches. This proliferation comes with further costs, such as wasted resources, and ‘forum shopping’ by state leaders. Europeans and other international donors should take stock of the situation they have helped create. As a first step, they should agree a tacit ‘non-proliferation agreement’ before considering other options.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Regional Cooperation, Peace, and Development Aid
Political Geography:: Africa

278. A return to Africa: Why North African states are looking south

Author:: Anthony Dworkin
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: North African countries, each for their own reasons, are increasingly turning their attention towards sub-Saharan Africa. Morocco is pursuing a comprehensive campaign to increase its influence and win support with regard to Western Sahara. Algeria may be showing new flexibility in its response to security threats to its south. Tunisia is beginning to look for new economic opportunities in Africa. Egypt is responding to a series of strategic concerns, particularly over the waters of the Nile. Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia are also all dealing with increased migration flows, with migrants seeking to work on their territories or pass through it to reach Europe. This North African turn to sub-Saharan Africa offers opportunities for European cooperation. But the EU should be aware of the distinctive agendas of North African countries and the reservations that their initiatives engender in some countries.
Topic:: International Relations, Migration, Regional Cooperation, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa, Algeria, North Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

279. The post-coronavirus world is already here

Author:: Josep Borrell
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The pandemic will likely magnify existing geopolitical dynamics and test the strength of Europe’s democratic systems. Europe needs a new kind of globalisation capable of striking a balance between the advantages of open markets and interdependence, and between the sovereignty and security of countries. Europe should work to prevent the US-China rivalry from having negative repercussions in certain regions of the world – particularly Africa. European leaders need to focus on meeting the immediate needs of healthcare systems, providing an income for people who cannot work, and giving businesses guarantees. The European model will only mean something in the eyes of the world if we can successfully promote solidarity among EU member states.
Topic:: Globalization, Geopolitics, Coronavirus, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Europe, and United States of America

280. Willing to kill: Factors contributing to mob justice in Uganda

Author:: Ronald Makanga Kakumba
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Mob justice is a form of extrajudicial punishment or retribution in which a person suspected of wrongdoing is typically humiliated, beaten, and in many cases killed by vigilantes or a crowd. Mob action takes place in the absence of any form of fair trial in which the accused are given a chance to defend themselves; the mob simply takes the law into its own hands (Ng’walali & Kitinya, 2006). Mob justice is not only criminal but also amounts to a violation of human rights (Uganda Human Rights Commission, 2016). Over the past decade, Uganda has seen a significant rise in the number of cases of mob justice. According to the Uganda Police Force’s (2013-2019) annual crime reports, 746 deaths by mob action were reported and investigated in 2019, compared to 426 in 2013, a 75% increase. “Mob kills 42 in 7 weeks,” the Daily Monitor (2019) reported in March 2019, citing police figures – an average of six lynchings a week. Homicides by mob action in Uganda occur mainly in response to thefts, robberies, killings, and reports of witchcraft (Uganda Police Force, 2018). According to the 2015 Afrobarometer survey in Uganda, one in six Ugandan adults said they took part in mob justice during the preceding year or would do so if they “had the chance.” This suggests that mob justice is not just a fringe problem in Uganda but commands attention and requires collective action. Why would a substantial number of Ugandans resort to taking the law into their own hands as an alternative form of “justice”? Analysts have pointed to a number of factors that might contribute to a willingness to engage in mob justice. One is a lack of trust in the formal criminal justice system to administer fair and timely justice. A 2005 study in Uganda showed that mob actions were often motivated by widespread suspicion or misunderstanding of the justice system, especially concerning the procedure of police bail, under which suspected culprits can be temporarily released before the court process (Baker, 2005). A study in southern Nigeria also reported that a lack of trust in the police was one of the motivations for the alarming incidence of “jungle justice” (Obarisiagbon, 2018). Research has also shown that personal victimization by crime can have a lasting impact on attitudes toward the police, the courts, and the criminal justice system overall (Berthelot, McNeal, & Baldwin, 2018; Dull & Wint, 1997; Koenig, 1980; Sprott & Doob, 1997), as can negative personal experiences with the courts (Olson & Huth, 1998; Kanaabi, 2004). Amid Uganda’s surge in mob justice, Afrobarometer findings tell us that popular trust in the police and courts has been declining while citizens’ perceptions of corruption in these criminal justice institutions has been rising. Statistical analyses show that a lack of trust in the police is associated with a willingness to engage in mob justice, while perceived corruption undermines trust and thus indirectly contributes to a willingness to join others in mob actions. Further, our analysis finds that being a victim of crime (physical assault), encountering problems in the court system, finding it hard to obtain police assistance, and having to pay a bribe to police or court officials are factors that make people more likely to say they would take part in mob action against suspected criminals. Based on these findings, we offer recommendations to mitigate Uganda’s growing problem of mob justice.
Topic:: Human Rights, Courts, Police, Justice, and Bribery
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

281. Corruption Crossroads? Rising Perceptions of Graft Weaken Citizen Trust, Threaten Botswana’s Democratic Standing

Author:: Thomas Isbell and Batlang Seabo
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Corruption is widely considered one of the greatest impediments to sustainable development in African countries (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, 2016; Bratton & Gyimah-Boadi, 2016). Corruption hinders macro-economic growth by weakening governance structures and diluting the positive effects of investments. At the micro level, corruption can trap the poorest, who are least likely to have alternatives to state provision of services, in a downward spiral (Peiffer & Rose, 2014). Botswana has long been considered one of Africa’s least corrupt countries and top performers in democratic practice and good governance. But while Transparency International’s (2019) Corruption Perceptions Index continues to rank Botswana as best on the continent, other observers have questioned this reputation (Mogalakwe & Nyamnjoh, 2017; Good, 2017). Allegations have focused on, among other things, high-level corruption in military procurement contracts under former President Ian Khama, close ties between members of the ruling party and the agricultural sector, and charges that well-connected suspects are often cleared by the courts (Motlogelwa & Civillini, 2016; Konopo, 2017; Good, 2017; Norad, 2011; Sebudubudu 2014; Gasennelwe, 2018). Recent corruption scandals have reached the highest levels of government, including the alleged looting of the National Petroleum Fund (Kgalemang, 2019; Motshegwa, Mutonono, & Mikazhu, 2019), and are still before courts of law (Shuma, 2020). In this paper we use Afrobarometer survey data to explore citizens’ perceptions of corruption in Botswana. We find that far more people see corruption increasing than decreasing and that perceptions of corruption in the Presidency and Parliament have risen sharply over the past decade. Fewer Batswana approve of how the government is handling the anti-corruption fight, and while many believe ordinary people can help fight corruption, a majority say that people risk retaliation if they report corruption to the authorities. A correlation analysis suggests that perceptions of corruption, especially in the Presidency, are strongly associated with less popular trust in public institutions and less satisfaction with democracy.
Topic:: Corruption, Governance, Democracy, and Citizenship
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

282. PP67: COVID-19 in Africa - Vulnerabilities and Assets for an Effective Response

Author:: Robert Mattes, Carolyn Logan, E. Gyimah-Boadi, and George Ellison
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Not only did the COVID-19 disease arrive on Africa’s shores (and at its airports) later than in Asia, Europe, and North America (Loembé et al., 2020), but for months the numbers of infections and deaths also appeared to remain relatively low. As of early August, the continent had experienced more than 1 million confirmed cases and 23,000 deaths (Africa CDC, 2020), though these figures were increasing rapidly. At this point, the causes behind Africa’s comparatively low initial numbers are not completely clear. One reason may be that early and decisive responses on the part of many African governments prevented the virus from gaining an easy foothold (Beech, Rubin, Kurmanaev, & MacLean, 2020; Hirsch, 2020; Levinson, 2020; Moore, 2020; Loembé et al., 2020). Indeed, according to the International Center for Not-for-Profit Law (2020), 46 African countries took some form of official action – in the form of new legislation or executive orders and decrees – restricting or banning travel and public gatherings, enforcing quarantines, or in some cases imposing full “lockdowns.” But Africa, somewhat paradoxically, may also have benefited from a range of structural factors, such as the continent’s relatively limited international exposure, its relatively low rates of intra- and inter-state air travel (Marbot, 2020), a generally hot and humid climate, relatively lower levels of population density and urbanization (De Waal, 2020; Marbot, 2020), and its substantially younger populations (Binding, 2020). It may have also profited from cultural factors, such as the fact that older people tend to remain with their families, rather than being institutionalized in retirement homes (Marbot, 2020), though this also has consequences for residential density, or that it has a more collectivist, less individualistic culture, which, according to recent research, may make COVID-19 interventions more effective (Frey, Presidente, & Chen, 2020). Yet most public health experts remain wary, and still expect significant further transmission of the virus across the continent, requiring drastic public health responses and interventions, especially where governments eased initial restrictions and lockdowns. Indeed, some officials have expressed concerns that Africa’s low numbers merely reflect very low rates of testing (Sly, 2020) and even, in some countries such as Tanzania, deliberate under-reporting (BBC, 2020). Some press reports have described instances where local reports of death rates bear little relation to official data (MacLean, 2020; York, 2020). These concerns appear well-founded given that community transmission is now present in all African countries and the number of infections increased by 50%, and deaths by 22%, in the last two weeks of July (World Health Organization, 2020). And officials at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention have warned that Africa could well become the next epicenter of the pandemic (Loembé et al., 2020). If, as these events suggest, early interventions in African countries successfully erected a wall that kept the virus at bay, albeit temporarily, how well prepared are these countries if and when the virus penetrates their initial defenses? A wealth of Afrobarometer survey data suggests that Africans are especially vulnerable, in part due to lack of access to clean water and adequate health care (Gyimah-Boadi & Logan, 2020a; Logan, Howard, & Gyimah-Boadi, 2020). In this paper, we attempt to take the issue of vulnerability a step further by developing a more fine-grained approach, using insights from public health to examine different dimensions and components of vulnerability (Morrell, 2018). Specifically, we develop three inter-connected indices intended to capture the extent to which Africans might 1) run a heightened “risk of exposure to infection,” 2) face a heightened “susceptibility to illness” (once infected), and 3) face a “lack of resilience” (to recover once they become ill). In addition, a fourth index of “lockdown readiness” estimates the proportion of people who are more (or less) likely to be able to withstand the most severe forms of government health interventions, i.e. lockdowns or “shelter in place” orders, We then demonstrate how cross-country variations in the extent of exposure and susceptibility, and in the degree to which people are prepared for a lockdown, might help us better understand policy choices that African governments have made, and the extent to which these interventions were able to achieve desired reductions in mobility and contact. Finally, we briefly explore some of the soft assets that governments can bring to the table, such as legitimacy and trust, that may help increase compliance with restrictions on mobility, especially in countries we have identified as least able to tolerate lockdowns.
Topic:: Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

283. Africa’s Digital Divide and the Promise of E-learning

Author:: Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: According to UNESCO (2020), approximately 1.2 billion students and youth worldwide are affected by school and university closures because of the COVID-19 pandemic. To adjust to these new circumstances, governments must develop innovative solutions to ensure inclusive learning opportunities during this period of unprecedented educational disruption. This is especially true in African countries, where despite recent progress traditional education has faced infrastructural challenges and struggled to develop the human resources necessary to address students’ educational needs (Krönke & Olan’g, 2020; United Nations, 2019; UNESCO Institute of Statistics, 2016. This policy paper uses Afrobarometer survey data to look at digital infrastructure, the availability of digital devices at the household level, and digital literacy among African adults. While rates of digital literacy among children are likely to differ, it is important to understand these dynamics among adults for at least two reasons. First, adults are likely to shape children’s access to and experience with technology. Second, understanding current levels of access to devices and levels of digital literacy among adults provides a baseline against which future assessments can measure progress over time. Survey findings from Afrobarometer Round 7 (2016/2018) show a substantial digital divide both across and within countries, reflected in uneven access to resources such as electricity and unequal access to and use of smartphones and computers. The results suggest that government efforts to redress widespread inequalities need to be increased drastically to avoid the widening of an education gap among their citizens. The paper also discusses the potential benefits of providing smartphones and computers to those who currently do not have access to such devices.
Topic:: Education, Infrastructure, Inequality, Digital Economy, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Africa

284. Democratic Dividend: The Road to Quality Education in Africa

Author:: Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Education is a powerful tool to fight poverty, enable upward socioeconomic mobility, and empower people to live healthier lives. But while the global adult literacy rate continues to increase, from 81% in 2000 to 86% in 2018 (World Bank, 2019), the challenge of access to quality education remains particularly severe in Africa. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, globally one out of five children aged 6-17 years were not in school; more than half of these children live in sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, many African pupils attend schools that are inadequately equipped, creating a difficult learning environment. For example, more than half of the schools in sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to basic drinking water, handwashing facilities, the Internet, or computers (United Nations, 2019). COVID-19 may exacerbate these challenges as pupils lose school time, unequal access to online learning heightens inequalities, and health care and social-safety costs and economic losses put pressure on limited resources. Africans are aware of education challenges. Across 34 African countries surveyed by Afrobarometer between late 2016 and late 2018, one in five respondents (21%) cited education as one of the most important problems their governments should address, placing it among citizens’ top five priorities (Coulibaly, Silwé, & Logan, 2018). Not surprisingly, younger people placed substantially greater emphasis on education than their elders. At a global level, the United Nations (UN) has highlighted the importance of quality education by including it in its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDG 4 calls for governments to “ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all.” To this end, the UN outlines specific targets to be achieved by 2030, including ensuring that “all youth and a substantial proportion of adults, both men and women, achieve literacy and numeracy.” An important step toward this goal is that by 2030, all girls and boys should be able to “complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education” (United Nations, 2019). Many African governments have made important commitments to universal education. Of the 34 countries surveyed by Afrobarometer in 2016/2018, 33 have made school attendance compulsory (for periods ranging from five to 11 years), and 33 provide free primary education. (See Appendix Table A.2 for details.) Many governments also commit substantial portions of their yearly budgets to improving education. For example, in Côte d’Ivoire, eSwatini, Ghana, Malawi, Senegal, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe, more than 25% of total government expenditures go to education (World Bank, 2020). Afrobarometer surveys point to slow but steady progress as fewer Africans go without formal education and more attend school beyond the primary grades. But in some countries, two-thirds of adults still have no formal schooling, and significant gender gaps continue to disadvantage girls and women. Overall, just a slim majority of Africans think their government is doing a good job on meeting educational needs. Factors that contribute to these evaluations include whether citizens find it easy to obtain school services and whether they think schools are transparent about their budgets and responsive to reports of teacher misconduct. More fundamentally, our analysis finds that more democratic countries are seen as better able to provide public education. Citizens are more likely to be satisfied with government performance on education if immediate avenues of transparency and accountability at the school level are embedded in a broader political system that encourages these qualities.
Topic:: Education, Poverty, Democracy, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Africa

285. Lived Poverty on the Rise: Decade of Living-Standard Gains Ends in Africa

Author:: Robert Mattes
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Economic destitution – whether measured as the frequency with which people go without basic necessities or as the proportion of people who live on less than $1.90 a day – declined steadily in Africa between 2005 and 2015. However, the findings of Afrobarometer Round 7 surveys, conducted in 34 African countries between late 2016 and late 2018, demonstrate that improvements in living standards have come to a halt and “lived poverty” is once again on the rise. To prevent squandering hard-won gains in Africans’ living standards, the data point to the necessity of a renewed commitment by citizens, governments, and international donors to defending democracy and expanding service-delivery infrastructure. Key findings Between 2005 and 2015, Afrobarometer surveys tracked a steady improvement in the living conditions of the average African. Measured as the frequency with which people go without a basket of basic necessities (food, clean water, health care, heating fuel, and cash income), “lived poverty” dropped in a sustained fashion over this period – a trend matched by consumption-based estimates of poverty by the World Bank. The most recent Afrobarometer surveys, however, suggest that Africa is in danger of squandering these gains in living standards. While the citizens of most African countries are still doing better than they were in 2005/2006, deprivation of basic necessities – captured by our Lived Poverty Index – has increased in about half of surveyed countries since 2015. The trend is similar for “severe lived poverty,” the extent to which people experience frequent shortages of basic necessities. Lived poverty varies widely across the continent. At one extreme, people rarely experience deprivation in Mauritius. At the other, the average person went without several basic necessities several times in the preceding year in Guinea and Gabon. In general, lived poverty is highest in Central and West Africa, and lowest in North Africa. Lived poverty also varies widely within societies. Reflecting the legacies of the “urban bias” of successive post-independence governments, rural residents continue to endure lived poverty far more frequently than those who live in suburbs and cities. A multilevel, multivariate regression analysis of more than 40,000 respondents across Africa reveals that people who live in urban areas, those who have higher levels of education, and those who have a job (especially in a middle-class occupation) are less likely to live in poverty, as are younger people and men. But besides personal characteristics, we locate even more important factors at the level of government and the state. First, Africans who live in countries with longer experiences of democratic government are less likely to live in poverty. Second, people who live in communities where the state has installed key development infrastructure such as paved roads, electricity grids, and piped-water systems are less likely to go without basic necessities. Indeed, the combined efforts of African governments and international donors in building development infrastructure, especially in rural areas, appears to have played a major role in bringing down levels of poverty – at least until recently.
Topic:: Poverty, Infrastructure, Inequality, and Local
Political Geography:: Africa

286. Four scenarios for electoral violence: Policy Brief the 2020 Ivorian Presidential and Parliamentary elections

Author:: Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Presidential and parliamentary elections in Cote d’Ivoire are scheduled for October 31, 2020. The past months have seen serious acts of violence during the campaign. As more violence is expected, the central question is where this violence is taking and will be taking place and which conditions are encouraging it. This policy brief explores the election violence literature and derives four scenarios to explaining and show which of Cote d'Ivoire's 31 regions will be affected for what reasons by electoral violence. Exploration of violence data highlights that presently, electoral violence is highest in competitive areas. This implies that the incumbent and opposition use violence in ‘swing’ areas and areas where they need to poach substantial number of votes from the opponent.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Violence, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

287. Towards mutually beneficial CRU Policy Brief EU-West African migration cooperation? Assessing EU policy trends and their implications for migration cooperation

Author:: Johannes Claes, Leonie Jegen, and Omar N. Cham
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The political stakes of migration cooperation at domestic, regional and international levels are crucial when assessing the potential of West African states to establish mutually beneficial relations. European–West African migration cooperation is unlikely to be mutually beneficial without consideration of such local realities, and political and social stakes. This policy brief assesses the extent to which policy trends in the EU external migration governance framework, as put forward in the New Pact on Migration and Asylum and the new EU Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021-2027, match the Union’s commitment to building a mutually beneficial partnership with third countries. This question will be assessed by drawing on EU migration cooperation with West African states. It will show that the rhetoric of a mutually beneficial relationship and a paradigm shift is not demonstrated in the actual policy content.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Migration, and European Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and West Africa

288. German Priorities for Africa during Its Presidency of the EU Council

Author:: Bram Dijkstra and Marta Martinelli
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Open Society Foundations
Abstract:: 2020 is a pivotal year for EU-Africa relations. Germany’s presidency of the EU Council provides an opportunity to address structural challenges—such as health care infrastructure, food provision, and managing the refugee and migration crises—revealed by the current COVID-19 crisis. The policy brief details Germany’s ambitions to foster a new partnership with Africa and offers recommendations in three priority areas: health care policy, economic development, and democratic governance.
Topic:: Agriculture, Diplomacy, Migration, Food, Health Care Policy, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Africa and Germany

289. Starting Young to Prevent Violence Against Women

Author:: Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
Abstract:: More than 50 percent of children have experienced some form of sexual, physical or emotional abuse or neglect in their lifetime. The wide-ranging and lifelong consequences of witnessing or experiencing violence in childhood can be profound.1 Individuals exposed to childhood violence, including child sexual abuse, physical abuse and harm, or witnessing the abuse of their mothers, are at greater risk of becoming perpetrators or victims as adults. Through our core work and grant-making, the Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI) is building evidence to help us respond to violence as early as possible and to stop it from continuing. Between 2016 and 2020, we funded several studies on violence against children in Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and other regions (in partnership with the World Bank Group). This research has taught us that services and prevention programmes must start with parents and families, and continue throughout the individual’s life. To be most effective, programmes need to target critical development phases, from pre-conception and conception through early childhood to adolescence. Programmes to prevent violence in the home, including programmes that offer parenting support, are essential. Continuing research into childhood violence, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, is essential. Research can help us to effectively prevent and respond to both violence against women and violence against children, and it is essential for creating policies and practices that really work.
Topic:: Education, Children, Gender Based Violence, and Youth
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, North America, and Southeast Asia

290. Risk of Mass Atrocities in Cameroon

Author:: Kyra Fox and Andrea Gittleman
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: Cameroon currently ranks number nine of countries at risk of mass killing in the Simon-Skjodt Center’s Statistical Risk Assessment.1 The situation has deteriorated significantly since 2017, when Cameroon ranked 36th. After Anglophone civilians launched protests in late 2016 alleging marginalization by the Francophone-majority government, state security forces responded violently, allegedly arresting, beating, and shooting demonstrators.2 Clashes ensued, with security forces reportedly killing over 20 people in a 12-day period in largely peaceful protests in September and October 2017.3 Shortly after, Anglophone separatists began fighting for independence for the territory they referred to as Southern Cameroons or Ambazonia. The crisis emerged from the long-standing political grievances of the Anglophone community. Yet today, fighting between the two sides makes it difficult to discern motives. Security forces are reportedly targeting Anglophone civilians accused of supporting separatists. It is unclear to what extent security forces are also targeting the Anglophone linguistic and cultural identity. Meanwhile, armed separatists claiming to represent the Anglophone population are reportedly targeting civilians they perceive as supporting the government. This policy brief provides an overview of the risks of mass atrocities in Cameroon’s Anglophone regions and provides recommendations to the Cameroonian government, armed separatist groups, and international actors to prevent atrocities and protect civilians.
Topic:: Non State Actors, State Violence, Risk, Atrocities, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

291. The Private Sector and Atrocity Prevention: Lessons from Côte d’Ivoire’s 2010-11 Electoral Crisis and the Role of the Business Community in Preventing Violence in 2020

Author:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: Côte d’Ivoire's economic stability is critical to West Africa's development and inextricably tied to the global economy. Past periods of conflict, including the civil war from 2002-07 and the 2010-11 electoral crisis, resulted in thousands of deaths and billions of dollars lost throughout the country and region. Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential election is less than a year away, and though atrocity crimes are not currently taking place, early warning signs of violence are already visible in a country that has never experienced a non-violent transfer of power. These signs warrant immediate attention, not only from Côte d’Ivoire’s political leadership and the international community, but also from business leaders. While the Ivorian government holds the keys to stability and peace throughout the electoral process, members of the business community—both Ivorian companies and international companies with economic interests in Côte d’Ivoire—can be critical allies in preventing violence in 2020. Business leaders should signal to the political parties that sacrificing the economy and civilian lives for political gain will not be accepted.
Topic:: Elections, Business, Violence, Private Sector, Instability, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

292. Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa –Trends and Basic Recommendations for Development Cooperation

Author:: Benjamin Schraven, Stephen Adaawen, Christina Rademacher-Schulz, and Nadine Segadlo
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper provides an overview of what is actually known about the relationship between climate change and human mobility in West, East and Southern Africa – the most affected regions of Sub-Saharan Africa. Although there is a general lack of data on “climate migration”, trends can be deduced from the growing number of case studies and research projects. This paper also formulates some recommendations for German and European development policies for addressing “climate migration” in Africa. The adverse effects of climate change in the three regions are mainly linked to increasing rainfall variability and a higher frequency or intensity of floods and droughts. These effects are a major challenge for human security. The consequences for human mobility, which range from forced displacement to circular labour migration, are embedded in a complex and very context-specific set of political, social, economic, cultural and ecological factors. Due to generally fragile contexts and armed conflicts, the risk of forced displacement in the context of climate change is probably the highest in the Horn of Africa. In all three regions, many households affected by climate change can be considered “trapped” – mobility is not an option for them at all. If mobility is possible, it often takes the form of individual and circular labour migration. Under favourable circumstance (e.g. in the absence of labour exploitation), money earned by migrants might help their households to compensate or at least mitigate the losses induced by climate change (“migration as adaptation”). The ideal political response towards human mobility in the context of climate change is to avoid forced displacement, to maximise positive mechanisms of migration and to minimise negative aspects like labour exploitation. This demands a multi-sectoral and multi-level policy approach.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Migration, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Africa

293. Supporting or Thwarting? The Influence of European Union Migration Policies on African Free Movement Regimes in West and North-Eastern Africa

Author:: Clare Castillejo, Eva Dick, and Benjamin Schraven
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The European Union (EU) approach to migration in Africa has significantly shifted in the last few years. Notably since 2015, it has focused on preventing irregular migration and privileges engagement with the main countries of origin and transit of migrants. In the context of the 2015 Joint Valletta Action Plan (JVAP), a funding instrument – the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF) –was created to channel development aid in support of EU interests in curbing migration. As reflected in historical and more recent policy agendas, economic integration and free movement within the continent and its regions constitute key elements of African development ambitions and narratives. But an increasing body of research suggests that EU activities (in particular the EUTF) sideline or even undermine African stakeholders and interests in decision-making and programming on migration. This paper analyses the effects of EU political dialogue and programming on regional free movement (RFM) in two African regions: the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in the Horn of Africa and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in West Africa. These regions receive the greatest amount of EUTF funding. While both IGAD and ECOWAS have frameworks on RFM, these are at very different stages of development. The analysis, based on literature review and field research, shows that EU approaches to and impact on RFM differ significantly in the two regions. In the IGAD region, the EU is not undermining but rather supporting free movement – albeit not as significantly as it could. In contrast, in the ECOWAS region the EU’s focus on preventing irregular migration is undermining progress on RFM. At least three factors drive this difference: 1) institutional coherence and decision-making powers vary considerably in the two regions; 2) whereas some powerful member states in the IGAD region consider free movement to be a barrier to their hegemonic role, member states in the ECOWAS region largely see it as positive; and 3) EU migration programming in these regions is driven by different levels of urgency – with the largest number of irregular migrants coming from West Africa, the EU’s objective of curbing migration is more accentuated in the ECOWAS region.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Regional Cooperation, and Refugees
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and European Union

294. From Global Refugee Norms to Local Realities: Implementing the Global Compact on Refugees in Kenya

Author:: Eva Dick and Markus Rudolf
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Adopted by the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in December 2018, the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) and its Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) point to a paradigm shift in international refugee policy. The social and economic independence of refugees in destination countries and communities in particular is to be increased. In return, the international community commits to engage in burden- and responsibility-sharing by supporting hosting countries and communities with knowledge and resources. With this new deal, the UN announced its intention to break existing vicious cycles of displacement and dependence on aid in order to ensure that refugees and host communities benefit equally from the measures. The East African nation of Kenya is one of 15 pilot countries working to promote the implementation of the CRRF. The Kenyan Government pledged at the UN Summit for Refugees and Migrants in September 2016 to integrate refugees more effectively and involve them in national and local development planning processes. It underscored its commitments in March 2017 in the context of the regional Nairobi Declaration and Action Plan (NAP). While the national operational plan announced at the time has not yet been adopted, individual commitments are already being implemented. These also include the (further) development of the integrated refugee settlement of Kalobeyei in Turkana Country in the far north-west of the country, a project supported by the international community as part of the CRRF, but originally initiated at local level. The example of Kenya and Turkana County shows that the (capacity for) implementation of global agreements depends not least on the specific interests of sub-national actors. Requirements of the CRRF, such as better infrastructure for refugees and host communities, are compatible with the local government’s economic development priorities. The capacity of Kenyan counties to take action has also been improved as a result of the decentralisation process in 2010. To a certain degree at least, counties can challenge the national security-related narratives which restrict the opportunities of refugees to participate in society to this day. In neighbouring Tanzania, implementation of the CRRF failed due in no small part to the fact that barely any consideration was given to the concerns of local actors in the nation’s centralised political system. Based on our analysis, we make the following recommendations for German development policy: Local state and non-governmental actors should be involved in drafting global norms and dialogue between municipalities should be promoted, Partner governments should be made aware of the benefits of integrating refugees and political and administrative implementation should be supported, Local stakeholders should be actively involved and supported in the planning and prioritisation of refugee integration strategies.
Topic:: United Nations, Refugees, International Community, and Norms
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, and Global Focus

295. The Religious Landscape in South Sudan: Challenges and Opportunities for Engagement

Author:: Jacqueline Wilson
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Since the beginning of South Sudan's civil war in 2013, the country's religious actors have sought to play an active role in turning the tide from war and violence to peace and reconciliation. Drawing on interviews, focus groups, and consultations, this report maps the religious landscape of South Sudan and showcases the legitimate and influential religious actors and institutions, highlights challenges impeding their peace work, and provides recommendations for policymakers and practitioners to better engage with religious actors for peace.
Topic:: Civil War, Religion, War, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

296. Ceasefire Monitoring in South Sudan 2014–2019: “A Very Ugly Mission”

Author:: Aly Verjee
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: More than five years after South Sudan’s first ceasefire agreement, ceasefire monitors are still on the ground. The hope was that their work would help overcome the mistrust between rival factions, halt ongoing violence, and deter further violations. Drawing on interviews with monitors, combatants, politicians, civil society representatives, diplomats, peacekeepers, and others, this report examines the history of ceasefire monitoring in South Sudan and offers recommendations for donors supporting future monitoring processes in South Sudan and elsewhere.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Conflict, Violence, Peace, and Ceasefire
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

297. Donor Assistance in the Transparency and Accountability Movement

Author:: Davin O'Regan
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Focusing on transparency and anti-corruption issues, this report discusses the findings from a series of participatory workshops and more than seventy interviews with social movement actors and organizations in Kenya, Nigeria, and Ukraine. It looks at the different ways social movement actors in these countries were influenced by foreign financial support and training, including in terms of the goals they set, the tactics and activities they pursue, and whether receiving foreign support compromises their legitimacy with their domestic constituents.
Topic:: Corruption, Social Movement, Accountability, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Europe, Ukraine, and Nigeria

298. Opportunities and Pitfalls in Practical Translation of Youth Inclusivity for Sustainable Peacebuilding in Africa

Author:: Konrad Adenauer Stiftung
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:: The share of Africa’s youth in the world is expected to increase to a staggering 42 percent by 2030 and is projected to continue to grow throughout the remainder of the 21st century, more than doubling from current levels by 2055. Data on direct conflict casualties suggests that more than 90 percent of all deaths occur among young adult males. Today, some 50 percent of the 1.4 billion people living in countries impacted by crises and fragility are under the age of 20. The Security Council has recognized that an estimated 408 million youth (ages 15-29) reside in settings affected by armed conflict or organized violence whereby 1 out of 4 youth globally are affected by armed conflict. These figures are gut-wrenching but indispensable for our understanding of peacebuilding in today’s age. With a global population of over 1.8 billion, young people— though disproportionally affected by armed conflict and organized violence—could potentially employ the unique capacity and ability to take on our planet’s most deep routed conflicts. Their inclusion and leadership are therefore imperative to the successful pursuit of peacebuilding.
Topic:: Population, Peacekeeping, Youth, Peace, and Casualties
Political Geography:: Africa

299. The Sales Tax Proposal: Are We Beating a Dead Horse? Preliminary results from a rapid assessment

Author:: Shebo Nalishebo and Florence Banda-Muleya
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: The fiscal authorities have argued that the horse – in this case, (value-added tax) VAT – is dead. In contrast, this rapid assessment argues that the VAT may have been pronounced dead too quickly, perhaps for expediency’s sake. Examples from many countries abound and show that with the right fiscal discipline to ring-fence VAT refunds and improve compliance, VAT works just fine, offering value-added incentives and avoiding cascading effects. In finding a solution for this supposedly dead horse, important questions that we need to ask are “Is the horse really dead? If it is, what killed the horse?” Without this introspection, the other horse in form of Sales Tax, which in fact died and was buried 25 years ago, might be resurrected. Without learning from previous experiences and experiences elsewhere, we are bound to make the same mistakes in trying to resuscitate a truly dead horse.
Topic:: Government, Tax Systems, Economic Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

300. State of Financial Cooperatives in Zambia: A viable option for increasing financial inclusion?

Author:: Tamara Billima-Mulenga, Felix Mwenge, and Gibson Masumbu
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:: This policy brief presents the summary findings of a study on Promoting Financial Cooperatives (FCs)in Zambia that was conducted between 2017 and 2018 with financial support from the Rural Finance Expansion Program (RUFEP), Ministry of Commerce Trade and Industry (MCTI) and the Zambia Center for Accountancy Studies (ZCAS). The study used both qualitative and quantitative approaches which included a situational analysis of FCs in Zambia, a study tour to Kenya and a Census of FCs in eight provinces. The main objective of the study was to contribute to the development of FCs in Zambia by generating information on their performance. The secondary objectives of the study were to: 1. Undertake a situational analysis to develop a clear understanding of the landscape for the FCs in Zambia in terms of the regulatory framework, support institutions and the nature and level at which the FCs operate. 2. Undertake a Census of FCs to understand the opportunities and constraining factors for the growth of the Cooperatives movement in Zambia. It was envisaged that the study would provide evidence about FCs that could be used in the revision of the Cooperatives Act currently underway, aid MCTI understand the nature of Cooperatives and devise strategies for monitoring FCs. The study also aimed at providing information about the state of FCs that can be used for various purposes by the apex body of FCs and stakeholders such as the Bank of Zambia.
Topic:: Governance, Economy, Trade, and Financial Cooperatives
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS