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202. Three Crises: Escalating security threats to the future of the Somali State
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Somalia is witnessing an escalation in the current political crisis, which is likely to undermine the credibility of the Somali leadership, in addition to threatening the internal stability in Somalia, as concerns heighten regarding the country possibly plunging into civil wars, similar to what happened in previous historical periods due to the clan nature of the Somali society.
- Topic:
- Security, Leadership, Crisis Management, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
203. Successive Setbacks: Can the United Front seize control of Addis Ababa?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- From October 31 to November 3, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) managed to achieve strategic gains at the expense of the Ethiopian government, as it continues to draw closer to the Ethiopian capital, especially after its seizing control of the cities of Dessie and Kombolcha. Meanwhile, contrary to regional and international appeals, the Ethiopian Prime Minister continues to mobilize citizens to fight, refusing a ceasefire and any negotiations with the Tigray Front.
- Topic:
- Government, Non State Actors, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray
204. Military coup betrays Sudan’s revolution: Scenarios to regain the path towards full civilian rule
- Author:
- Anette Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- On Monday 25 October 2021, Lieutenant-General Abdul-Fattah al-Burhan staged a military coup that stalled Sudan’s political transition towards civilian rule. With the government dissolved and a state of emergency declared, two years of painfully gained achievements towards democracy could be lost, the hopes of millions of peaceful protestors shattered, and an already fragile region further destabilised. The military takeover is a desperate attempt by the generals to protect the security elite’s economic interests and to abscond from justice. In response to the coup, millions of Sudanese mobilised to reject the coup and demand full civilian rule. Western governments and the EU have strongly condemned the coup and suspended economic support, while Egypt, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are believed to back it. Three outcomes from the current crisis are on the table: a) a full civilian transitional government; b) a return to the power-sharing agreement; or c) military dictatorship. To assist Sudan to regain its path towards democracy, Western governments must put all their weight behind the civilian demands and: i) streamline the ongoing mediation processes and ensure civil society is consulted; ii) bolster the legitimacy of Prime Minister Hamdok and his cabinet, iii) increase pressure on Sudan’s military junta and its backers; and iv) strengthen Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement. This brief presents three plausible scenarios for a way out of the crisis and concludes with considerations for policy makers to get Sudan back on track towards democratic rule.
- Topic:
- Coup, Revolution, Instability, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
205. Warring partners: Exploiting the failed coup in the political transition in Sudan
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The failed coup attempt in Sudan expanded dispute between the partners in power, the military and the civilians, who both sought to use it to lead the transitional phase as per their own priorities.
- Topic:
- Politics, Coup, Civilians, Transition, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
206. Increasing Access to Affordable Agricultural Microinsurance in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Brenden McKinney
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University
- Abstract:
- The effects of climate change are causing risk management to become an increasingly essential tool to help farmers anticipate and react to weather-related shocks like droughts and floods. When an efficient risk management system is implemented, it improves the standard of living of those who depend on farming, strengthens agricultural businesses, and supports investment; such a system can decrease the overall risk profiles of individuals and increase the confidence of farmers in their ability to take on risks that could improve their income. 1 While risk mitigation plays a key role in socio-economic development, the system must be affordable in order to successfully reduce poverty levels for those at the base of the economic pyramid.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, and Microinsurance
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
207. Managing Senegal’s Oil and Gas Revenues
- Author:
- William Davis, Andrew Bauer, and Papa Daouda Diene
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- As of late 2021, Senegal is on the cusp of becoming a significant oil and gas producer. The revenues that it can expect to mobilize present it with an important opportunity to speed the country’s development by increasing public investment. In preparation for this, Senegalese authorities are currently revising the country’s framework for managing its oil and gas revenues, which remains a work in progress. The authors of this report evaluate various aspects of Senegal’s policy framework for managing oil and gas revenues and share recommendations as to how it could be strengthened.
- Topic:
- Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Revenue Management
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Senegal
208. Step by Step: Closing the Implementation Gap in Senegal's Petroleum Licensing Process
- Author:
- Papa Daouda Diene and Nicola Woodroffe
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- Historically, Senegal has experienced significant “implementation gaps” between rules and implementation of these rules in its petroleum licensing process. Causes have included lack of legal clarity, duplicative and conflicting institutional roles, and lack of institutional capacity. However, Senegal has made good progress on closing this implementation gap. As of 2020, Senegal’s implementation gap in the petroleum licensing process as measured by the Resource Governance Index is very small and reflects recent government reforms, investments and disclosures. Despite major progress in closing the implementation gap in the licensing process, Senegal has significant room for improvement in the transparency of the oil and gas licensing process. Senegal’s government should work to improve laws on the disclosure of assets of public officials and the disclosure of the identities of the beneficial owners of companies applying for and obtaining licenses.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Regulation, Legislation, and Policy Implementation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Senegal
209. Socioeconomic Impacts of Climate Change in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- Octavi Quintana
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The Mediterranean Basin enjoys very at- tractive geographical, climatic, and cultural features. It hosts a high-density population mainly in the coastal areas, of over 500 million people which has doubled in the last 40 years, and it is still increasing at a high pace. The region faces severe threats including water stress, impaired food production, food security, desertification, severe pollution to mention just a few. These threats have been exacerbated in the last decades by increased demography, migration to urban areas, tourism (the first tourist destination in the world), and very importantly, climate change. The Mediterranean suffers from an increase of temperature 20% higher than the world average. It is a real hotspot of climate change. The present monography, sponsored by the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed), addresses the socioeconomic impact of climate change. There are a lot of studies on the biophysical impact of climate change. Its socioeconomic impact has been less studied probably because of its complexity. Important knowledge gaps do exist. The purpose of gathering knowledge on the socioeconomic impact of climate change is to advise decision-makers on the difficult decisions to be taken to mitigate and adapt to climate change in a region facing severe threats that climate change only exacerbates. For decision-makers, the socioeconomic impact is more relevant than the biophysical impact of climate change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Pollution, and Socioeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean
210. Belgian Troops for Takuba: What’s at Stake?
- Author:
- Nina Wilen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Belgium is once again considering a significant troop contribution to one of the French-led military operations in the Sahel region – this time Task Force Takuba. Recent years’ discussions have stimulated debate about the risks and benefits linked to such a deployment but failed to result in any political consensus. Against this background, this brief answers the questions: What? Why? and So What? Belgium is once again considering a significant troop contribution to one of the French-led military operations in the Sahel region – this time Task Force Takuba. Recent years’ discussions have stimulated debate about the risks and benefits linked to such a deployment but failed to result in any political consensus. Against this background, this brief answers the questions: What? Why? and So What?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Belgium, and Sahel
211. Building blocks for regional cooperation on Transitional Justice
- Author:
- Valerie Arnould
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- This policy brief is a report on the expert workshop on AU-EU cooperation on transitional justice which was organised in October 2021 by Egmont – The Royal Institute for International Relations, the University of Leuven, the Belgian Federal Public Service Foreign Affairs, the European External Action Service and the African Union. The workshop sought to examine some of the challenges and lessons learned so far from AU and EU support for transitional justice. Discussions focused on four areas: transitional justice’s contribution to peacebuilding, the role of civil society in transitional justice, the integration of a socioeconomic dimension to transitional justice and the gendering of transitional justice.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Africa Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
212. Accountability in Policing COVID-19: Lessons from the Field
- Author:
- Anna Myriam Roccatello and Mohamed Suma
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- As countries around the world roll out their COVID-19 vaccination programs and gradually reopen their economies and borders, the coronavirus continues to ravage vulnerable communities. Moreover, these same communities have borne the brunt of the economic disruption caused by the pandemic, which decimated livelihoods, increased poverty, and exacerbated inequalities in many countries. Early in the pandemic, countries rushed to shut their borders and impose emergency measures, such as curfews, travel restrictions, and community lockdowns. States deployed security forces to enforce these measures, some of which resulted in widespread human rights violations, including torture, killings, and intimidation of persons perceived as failing to comply with their orders. Colombia, Kenya, Lebanon, and Uganda—all countries where ICTJ works—are among those whose security agencies weaponized their powers under these emergency measures and often used brutal means to keep people off the streets. While constitutional police forces committed the bulk of these abuses, a growing number of paramilitaries, citizen vigilantes, and other nonstate forces have also committed human rights violations while enforcing the emergency measures. However, the COVID-19 pandemic underscores states' obligation to protect the inherent right to life and the subsequent right to health. Moreover, national and international human rights laws allow states to temporarily suspend certain rights and invoke special powers that would be considered an infringement of civil liberties in normal situations. Thus, the suspension of those rights is justified by the need to protect the collective good. This paper analyzes the emerging trends of draconian regular policing and vigilante policing during the pandemic in Colombia, Kenya, Lebanon, and Uganda. The paper also describes how armed nonstate groups have come to exercise control in communities where there is no government presence to enforce emergency lockdown and other measures, with little regard for the principles of proportionality and non-discrimination. In all contexts, since the outbreak of the COVID-19, regular police and paramilitary forces have increased their powers, which they have abused extensively. As a result, some policing practices have become deadlier than the virus itself and have exposed the profound frailties of democratic governance.
- Topic:
- Reform, Criminal Justice, Crisis Management, Institutions, Police, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, Colombia, South America, and Lebanon
213. Why Europe Should Build Legal Migration Pathways with Nigeria
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The youth population within Nigeria is rapidly increasing, but despite their high levels of education and skills, many are struggling to find meaningful work opportunities at home. At the same time, Europe’s working-age population is declining, resulting in employers in these countries facing large and persistent skill shortages within a range of mid-skill professions. Despite the large benefits that facilitating migration between Nigeria and Europe could bring, and despite the overtures of both European governments and the European Union, few mutually beneficial migration partnerships exist. Over the last year, CGD has been working with the World Bank to understand how our Global Skill Partnership migration model could be implemented between Nigeria and Europe. The full results of this work have now been published in a new report, Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain. The report explores both why Nigeria and Europe should implement migration partnerships and develops a framework as to how they can do so. This framework is then applied to three sectors and partner countries: a healthcare partnership between Nigeria and the United Kingdom (UK), a construction partnership between Nigeria and Germany, and an ICT partnership with various European states. This brief focuses on the first part of this equation, the why: understanding the opportunity that lies before us to better link the labor markets of Nigeria and Europe and the innovation that could do just that.
- Topic:
- Migration, Immigration, Border Control, and Immigration Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Nigeria
214. Humanizing Security in Cabo Delgado
- Author:
- Luis Nhachote
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Good Governance Africa (GGA)
- Abstract:
- In February 2021, civil society organizations in Mozambique and South Africa with international allies, established a coalition focusing on the Cabo Delgado crisis. It aimed to spotlight the violence in Cabo Delgado and push for accountability and improve the living conditions and human rights situation in the region. Notwithstanding recent developments to secure the region through various militaristic means, the threat to civilians, and their livelihood continues unabated. This alone necessitates a study into the drivers of the conflict, the key actors involved, and make recommendations to policy makers on possible ways to quell it. The report is an attempt to broaden the narrative of the conflict in Cabo Delgado and illustrate the complexity and nuance at the root of the violence. While the popular narrative on this conflict is that it’s a terrorist insurgency, reports of violations by government security agencies, proxies and links to Multi-National Corporations (MNCs) engaged in extracting gas in this region have emerged.1 This report is intended to build on existing reports about the perpetrators of violence and also shed light on other lesser-known elements that are driving the conflict, as well as highlighting the social injustice suffered by the ordinary women, children and men of this region.
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Violence, and Civilians
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgado
215. When armies enforce the law: Why the Ghana armed forces play a role in domestic security
- Author:
- Peter Albrecht, Fiifi Edu-Afful, and Festus Aubyn
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The Ghana Armed Forces play a significant role in domestic security. To fully comprehend how and why requires a deeper understanding of the way that individual, local, national and regional factors interact. A blurring of the duties of the police and armed forces speaks to a never fully realized separation of who oversees internal and external security. The division of labour between a police force that deals with domestic security concerns and armed forces that defend the borders of a country against external threats has become a generally accepted ideal during the past 150 years. In practice, this separation has been historically tenuous, which was emphasized when the Cold War came to an end, and new security threats such as civil wars and international terrorism emerged. The terrorist attacks on the United States on 11 September 2001 strongly reinforced pressures towards the development of expeditionary security capabilities, which was done partially by expanding the roles and responsibilities of the armed forces in internal security. In Ghana, these international transformations in the role of the armed forces together with the country’s particular history of civil-military relations have led to an expansive set of functions for the Ghana Armed Forces domestically. Today, the armed forces play a consistent role in internal security operations, sometimes referred to in public debates as ‘internal peacekeeping’. Military personnel are deployed to deal with a wide range of law enforcement matters across the country, such as illegal mining, illegal logging, armed robberies (patrolling), and chieftaincy disputes.
- Topic:
- Security, Law Enforcement, Armed Forces, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
216. Two sides of the same coin? International peacekeeping shapes domestic security in Ghana
- Author:
- Peter Albrecht, Fiifi Edu-Afful, and Festus Aubyn
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- The Ghana Armed Forces are lauded for their contributions to international peacekeeping abroad, but how do those experiences impact security back home? Evidence suggests that there is a mutually reinforcing relationship between international peacekeeping and internal security operations and that international peacekeeping has shaped and legitimised the use of the armed forces within the borders of Ghana. International attention on the Ghana Armed Forces often centres on the benefits that are garnered from engaging in UN peacekeeping missions. Discussions emphasise how missions, especially those deploying in West Africa, have had a stabilising effect on Ghana and framed the armed forces as professional and culturally sensitive. Moreover, emphasis has been on the importance of economic gain – both for individual soldiers and the institution – and on the democratising effect that contributions to peacekeeping have had on the armed forces. Much less publicised and discussed internationally is the comprehensive role that the armed forces are directed to play in internal security operations, mainly by Ghana’s political elite. Even less attention, inside and outside the country, has been given to how international peacekeeping and internal operations are connected and shape one another; they are strinkingly similar, and also mutually reinforcing. This connection has gradually intensified since the end of the Cold War, as the number and activities of both types of military practice – peacekeeping and internal operations – have multiplied and expanded.
- Topic:
- Security, Law Enforcement, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
217. Global rivalry in the Red Sea: A ‘Geopolitical’ European Union should encourage cooperation in the Red Sea region
- Author:
- Fabrizzio Tassinari and Mehari Taddele Maru
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Geopolitical competition in Africa is here to stay, and the question for the EU is not if but how to position itself in this global competition. In the case of the Red Sea region, the EU should support regional initiatives to build effective regional maritime governance and promote global public goods such as maritime security and the blue economy. Under the Presidency of Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission has branded itself a ‘Geopolitical Commission’. With regard to geopolitics, the Red Sea has for years been seen as a primary focus of action, a point the European Council stressed in July 2021, when it identified the region as a ‘geostrategic priority’. In 2018, the Council of the European Union adopted conclusions on the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, finding that there was ‘renewed geopolitical competition on both shores of the Red Sea’. The EU further stressed that ‘at stake are the preservation of the security of the Bab el Mandeb maritime route through which a significant proportion of trade to and from Europe passes; the harnessing of irregular migration flows; the containment of terrorist threats; and the prevention of instability in the EU’s wider neighbourhood’.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, International Organization, Governance, European Union, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Red Sea
218. Rethinking Transnational Terrorism: An Integrated Approach
- Author:
- Martha Crenshaw
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The 2011 civil war in Syria attracted thousands of fighters from at least seventy countries to join the Islamic State. Al-Shabaab carried out large-scale attacks on civilian targets in Uganda and Kenya as retribution for the deployment of peacekeeping forces in Somalia. In this report, Martha Crenshaw considers the extent to which civil war and foreign military intervention function as a rationale for transnational terrorism, and how understanding the connections between terrorism, civil war, and weak governance can help the United States and its allies mount an appropriate response.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, War, Non State Actors, Islamic State, Transnational Actors, Peace, and Al-Shabaab
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, Syria, Somalia, and United States of America
219. Addressing the Challenges of Urbanization in Africa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
- Abstract:
- Africa is the world’s least urbanized continent, and yet the rate at which its cities are expanding is growing faster than no other worldwide – at an average of 3.5 percent per year. This growth of urbanization does, however, vary across the continent, ranging from the already heavily urbanized North Africa (47.8 percent) to the least urbanized Sub-Saharan Africa (32.8 percent).The aggregate rate of urbanization on the continent is projected to grow from 40 percent in 2015 to 56 percent in 2050. The enormous speed at which Africa’s cities are growing is linked to other key development trends, most prominently accelerating economic and population growth, increasing migration from rural to urban areas, and the youth bulge. It is strongly driven by Africans’ perceptions that cities – in contrast to the continent’s rural areas – offer an abundance of livelihood opportunities, including employment and income-generating opportunities, food security, and access to finance, education and social capital as well as social protection.
- Topic:
- Urbanization, Economic Growth, Urban, Population Growth, and Cities
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, and Sahara
220. Traditional Transitional Justice Mechanisms: Lessons from Africa
- Author:
- Nomathamsanqa Masiko-Mpaka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- Transitional justice is widely accepted as a process for countries to employ when transitioning from authoritarian rule or armed conflict to democracy and in their quest to address legacies of systemic violence and human rights violations. As defined by the African Union, transitional justice refers to “the various (formal and traditional or non-formal) policy measures and institutional mechanisms that societies, through an inclusive consultative process, adopt in order to overcome past violations, divisions and inequalities and to create conditions for both security and democratic and socio-economic transformation.” While societies coming out of conflict or authoritarian rule have different histories, priorities and needs, commonly used mechanisms of transitional justice include criminal prosecutions, truth telling, reparations, institutional reforms, memorialisation, traditional justice, and vetting and lustration. The implementation of transitional justice is believed to be more effective, impactful and holistic when a combination of mechanisms is employed either simultaneously or sequentially.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Democracy, Transitional Justice, Violence, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Rwanda
221. Transitional Justice and the Inclusion of LGBTQIA+ Rights
- Author:
- Thokozani Mbwana
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- Transitional justice, as defined by the African Union Transitional Justice Policy (AUTJP), is a set of processes and mechanisms that aim to assist society in coming to terms with authoritarianism, past abuses and conflict. This is done by promoting accountability, peace, reconciliation and justice. The processes include judicial and non-judicial mechanisms such as criminal prosecutions, truth commissions (truth telling and seeking), institutional reforms and reparations.
- Topic:
- Transitional Justice and LGBT+
- Political Geography:
- Africa
222. Climate-related Security Risks and the African Union
- Author:
- Vane Moraa Aminga and Florian Krampe
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- There has been considerable attention on the conventional climate mitigation and adaptation debate in Africa, including the prominent efforts of the African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change in global climate forums. However, there is little understanding of how the African Union (AU) is discussing and responding to the security implications of climate change. This Policy Brief outlines key strengths of the African Union’s response, such as a rapidly evolving discourse around climate security and efforts to improve collaboration and coordination among different parts of the institution. But also, key weaknesses in the discourse around AU policy responses, such as the lack of tangible policy operationalization as well as financial unpreparedness and limited member state accountability. The Policy Brief makes recommendations highlighting entry points for advancing the understanding and response to climate-related security risks within the AU, such as: (a) develop and institutionalize coordinated responses to climate-related security risks, (b) develop strong climate security leadership within the African Union, and (c) change the narrative to focus on shared problems and therefore shared solutions—multilateralism rather than nationalism.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Multilateralism, Risk, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa
223. Brexit: An Assessment of Zambia- UK Trade & Investment Relations
- Author:
- Shimukunki Manchishi and Mwanda Phiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- Following the Brexit referendum held in the UK in 2016 that resulted in a majority vote to leave the EU, there has been speculation and uncertainty surrounding the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between the UK and developing countries such as Zambia. With Brexit, comes the exit of the UK from the EU, its customs union as well as the single market. Consequently, this implies that Zambia’s trade with the UK will no longer be under the ambit of the EU Everything But Arms (EBA) trade agreement which grants Zambian products other than arms, duty-free and quota-free market access to the UK. Naturally, this brings about questions of the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between Zambia and the UK which thus far, has been determined collectively under the framework of the EU since the UK’s accession to the EU customs union. In this policy paper, we provide a contextual analysis of the same. From this, we deduce that a ‘deal’ or ‘no deal’ Brexit is not likely to adversely impact the UK’s trade with Zambia. This is on condition that the UK’s own unilateral preference scheme comes into place and in time, to replicate the EU-EBA scheme with no disruption to traders. On the Investment front, although the UK has been Zambia’s fourth-largest source country for FDI inflows over the period 2010-2017, investments have been waning. Brexit has the potential to turn things around as the UK seeks to increase investments in other jurisdictions outside of the EU. With the UK now envisioning to become the largest G7 investor in Africa by 2022, there is a high probability that Brexit could lead to a positive investment crowding in effect, provided Zambia becomes a more attractive investment destination.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Brexit, Investment, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, and Zambia
224. State of Financial Cooperatives in Zambia: A viable option for increasing fi nancial inclusion?
- Author:
- ZIPAR
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- This policy brief presents the summary fi ndings of a study on Promoting Financial Cooperatives (FCs) in Zambia that was conducted between 2017 and 2018 with fi nancial support from the Rural Finance Expansion Program (RUFEP), Ministry of Commerce Trade and Industry (MCTI) and the Zambia Center for Accountancy Studies (ZCAS). The study used both qualitative and quantitative approaches which included a situational analysis of FCs in Zambia, a study tour to Kenya and a census of Financial Cooperatives (FCs) eight provinces. The main objective of the study was to contribute to the development of FCs in Zambia by generating information on their performance. The secondary objectives of the study were to: 1. Undertake a situational analysis to develop a clear understanding of the landscape for the FCs in Zambia in terms of the regulatory framework, support institutions and the nature and level at which the FCs operate. 2. Undertake a Census of cooperatives to understand the opportunities and constraining factors for the growth of the Cooperatives movement in Zambia. It was envisaged that the study would provide evidence about FCs that could be used in the revision of the Cooperatives Act currently underway, aid MCTI understand the nature of Cooperatives and devise strategies for monitoring FCs. The study also aimed at providing information about the state of FCs that can used by the apex body of FCs and stakeholders such as Bank of Zambia.
- Topic:
- Regulation, Banks, Economic Development, and Financial Cooperatives
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
225. What US strategy gets wrong about China in Africa
- Author:
- Cullen S. Hendrix
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration’s Africa strategy is rooted in three misconceptions about China’s African footprint—and a fourth about US-Africa economic relations—that are either factually incorrect or overstated in terms of the broader strategic challenges they pose to US interests: (1) Chinese engagement in Africa crowds out opportunities for trade and investment with and from the United States; (2) Chinese engagement in Africa is resource-seeking—to the detriment of US interests; (3) Chinese engagement in Africa is designed to foster debt-based coercive diplomacy; and (4) US-Africa economic linkages are all one-way and concessionary (i.e., aid-based). Hendrix finds little evidence to suggest Chinese trade and investment ties crowd out US trade and investment opportunities. China’s resource-seeking bent is evident in investment patterns, but it is more a function of Africa’s having comparatively large, undercapitalized resource endowments than China’s attempt to corner commodity markets. Chinese infrastructural development—particularly large projects associated with the Belt and Road Initiative—may result in increased African indebtedness to the Chinese, but there is little reason to think debt per se will vastly expand Chinese military capacity in the region. And finally, US-Africa economic relations are much less one-sided and concessionary (i.e., aid-based) than conventional wisdom suggests.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, Economy, Trade, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, North America, and United States of America
226. Sharing the Burden: Lessons from the European Return to Multidimensional Peacekeeping
- Author:
- Arthur Boutellis and Michael Beary
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Since 2013, after years of near absence from the continent, a number of European countries, along with Canada, have again deployed to UN peacekeeping missions in Africa. The European presence in UN peacekeeping in Africa is now nearly at its largest since the mid-1990s. These countries provide much-needed high-end capabilities, as well as political and financial capital, to UN peacekeeping operations. Nonetheless, securing and sustaining European contributions to these types of peacekeeping operations remains an uphill battle for the UN. This paper draws lessons from this renewed engagement by European countries and Canada, both from their point of view, as well as from that of the UN Secretariat, UN field missions, and other troop contributors. It aims to explore how these bodies and other countries can best work together in a collective endeavor to improve UN peacekeeping’s efficiency and effectiveness. Toward this end, the paper recommends a number of actions to the UN Secretariat: Build peacekeeping operations around first-class medical systems; Focus on improving processes for casualty evacuation; Strengthen the UN’s capacity to foster partnerships among troop-contributing countries; Engage Europe strategically and politically; Be flexible and make European contributors (and others) feel included in planning; Continue educating European contributors about UN peacekeeping; Do not limit engagement with European contributors to high-end capabilities; Ensure European contributors adhere to UN standards; and Encourage European contributors to commit to longer deployments.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Canada
227. Protection through Policing: The Protective Role of UN Police in Peace Operations
- Author:
- Charles T. Hunt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Since first deployed in 1960, United Nations police (UNPOL) have consistently been present in UN missions and have become increasingly important to achieving mission objectives. Since 1999, these objectives have often included the protection of civilians (POC), especially in places like the Central African Republic, Darfur, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and South Sudan. But despite its rise in prominence, the protective role of UNPOL is generally undervalued and regularly overlooked, and missions have tended to overly rely on militarized approaches to POC. This report examines the roles and responsibilities of UNPOL regarding POC. It outlines UNPOL’s contributions to POC and perceived comparative advantages, using examples of their role as compeller, deterrent, partner, and enabler. It also identifies and draws lessons from challenges to police protection efforts, including ambiguous mandates, policies, and guidance; poor coordination; problematic partnerships; and deficits in capabilities, capacities, and tools. Drawing on these lessons from past and current deployments, the report proposes recommendations for how member states, the Security Council, the UN Secretariat, and field missions can improve UNPOL’s efforts to protect civilians going forward. These recommendations include: Clarifying the role of UN police in POC through mandates, policies, guidance, and training to align the expectations of UN peace operations, the Secretariat, and member states for what UNPOL are expected to do; Involving all UN police in POC and giving them a voice in decision making and planning to infuse whole-of-mission POC efforts with policing perspectives and empower UNPOL to act more readily; Enhancing partnerships between UN police, host states, and other mission components to enable more responsive, better coordinated, and more comprehensive approaches to POC; and Providing more appropriate and more flexible capabilities, capacities, and tools to address critical capabilities gaps and adapt existing resources to better meet UNPOL’s latent potential for POC.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Reform, Rule of Law, Civilians, and Police
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Darfur, Mali, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Congo
228. Sustaining Peace in Burkina Faso: Responding to an Emerging Crisis
- Author:
- Christian Lara and Gabriel Delsol
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- In 2017, the UN launched a system-wide effort to support the implementation of the sustaining peace agenda in Burkina Faso. Since then, a rapidly deteriorating security situation and an imminent humanitarian crisis have forced the UN, the Burkinabe government, and their partners to recalibrate their efforts. This ongoing recalibration, together with the changes resulting from the UN development system reforms, makes this an opportune moment to assess the state of efforts to sustain peace in Burkina Faso. This paper examines the implementation of the UN’s peacebuilding and sustaining peace framework in Burkina Faso, looking at what has been done and what is still needed. It focuses on the four issue areas highlighted in the secretary-general’s 2018 report on peacebuilding and sustaining peace: operational and policy coherence; leadership at the UN country level; partnerships with local and regional actors; and international support. Burkina Faso provides lessons for how the UN’s sustaining peace efforts can respond to growing needs without a change in mandate. Continued support for the UN resident coordinator in Burkina Faso is necessary to ensure that these efforts are part of a holistic approach to the crisis, together with local, national, and regional partners. Such support could underpin Burkina Faso’s status as a buffer against spreading insecurity in the Sahel and make the country a model for the implementation of the sustaining peace agenda in conflict-prone settings without UN missions.
- Topic:
- Development, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Peace, Sustainability, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Burkina Faso
229. Operationalizing the Sustaining Peace Agenda: Lessons from Burkina Faso, Liberia, and Papua New Guinea
- Author:
- Agathe Sarfati
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- The twin resolutions on peacebuilding and sustaining peace adopted by the General Assembly and Security Council in 2016 made a breakthrough in the UN’s conception of peacebuilding. Significant work has since been undertaken to reconfigure the UN system to work toward the implementation of these resolutions, and the UN Peacebuilding Commission has launched a comprehensive review of the peacebuilding architecture to be completed in 2020. To inform this review, this issue brief synthesizes findings related to the operationalization of the peacebuilding and sustaining peace resolutions at the country level. These findings emerged from three case studies published by IPI on Liberia, Papua New Guinea, and Burkina Faso. The operationalization of sustaining peace is assessed across four areas: (1) operational and policy coherence; (2) leadership, accountability, and capacity; (3) financing; and (4) partnerships. The paper concludes that much of the focus to date has been on improving the effectiveness of how the UN delivers its mandates on peacebuilding and sustaining peace. To fully realize the vision of the sustaining peace agenda, its operationalization must increasingly focus on the impact of these efforts. This requires questioning and testing the theory of change underpinning these operational reforms to ensure the UN is effectively helping societies build the foundation for sustaining peace.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peace, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Liberia, Papua New Guinea, and Burkina Faso
230. China, Africa and the WHO : a challenge for post covid19 multilateralism
- Author:
- Valerie Niquet
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- China plays a significant role in Africa, particularly in Ethiopia, where the current Director-General of the WHO was Minister of Health and then Minister of Foreign Affairs. This opaque influence and the support given by Beijing to Dr. Tedros seems to have weighed on the positions taken by the WHO in the face of the Covid 19 crisis. The consequences of these decisions are now being felt worldwide and contribute to undermining the credibility of a fragile multilateral system.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, United Nations, World Health Organization, Multilateralism, Soft Power, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and Asia
231. Al-Shabaab Attacks Spike, as COVID-19 Grips the World
- Author:
- Sunguta West
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Al-Shabaab’s recent attack targeting Somalia’s head of the military is the latest indication of the Islamist militant group’s growing confidence in its battle for control of the war-torn country in the Horn of Africa. Al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda affiliate in East Africa, has been waging a deadly insurgency in the country for 14 years. Its weapons of choice have ranged from improvised explosive devices (IED) and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs), to deploying suicide bombers to target security forces, public installations, and government officials. Its war is largely asymmetrical, where it also relies on hit and run attacks, assassinations, and grenade attacks.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Islamism, Al Shabaab, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
232. Making the most of Prosper Africa: Leveraging US competitiveness in African markets
- Author:
- Audrey Hruby
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Global powers are jockeying for access to opportunities in African markets. In recent years, through the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, the Tokyo International Conference of African Development, the Russia-Africa Summit, and many others, the world’s largest economies have sought to make headway in what are seen as fast-growing and lucrative new markets. In this environment, effective United States (US)-Africa policy requires greater focus on areas of American competitiveness and concerted efforts to educate, mobilize, and support US commercial success in African markets. In this update of her 2017 issue brief “Escaping China’s shadow: Finding America’s competitive edge in Africa,” Senior Fellow Aubrey Hruby outlines recommendations for how to best utilize Prosper Africa and leverage American private sector competitiveness by focusing efforts on sectors in which the United States already leads.
- Topic:
- Global Markets, Economy, Trade, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and United States of America
233. A Moving Frontline in Africa
- Author:
- Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde and Peer Schouten
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Pastoralism is the key to climate change adaptation in African drylands, but it is threatened by conflicts with farmers, regional insecurity and violent extremism. Stabilisation and development efforts should place pastoralism at the centre by strengthening pastoral livelihoods and should include herders as peacebuilding and development partners. RECOMMENDATIONS ■ Strengthen pastoralist capacities to cope with risk and variability by boosting inclusive and equitable resource governance in new development programmes. ■ Include pastoralists as potential peace-builders in conflict resolution efforts. ■ Support dialogue between pastoralists and local and national governments in order to prevent the further marginalisation of vulnerable pastoralist groups.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Democratization, Development, Environment, Migration, Non State Actors, Fragile States, Economy, Conflict, Investment, Peace, and Land Rights
- Political Geography:
- Africa
234. The Traumas of Ethiopian Male Migrants: Re-integration efforts must put vulnerabilities at the centre
- Author:
- Adam Moe Fejerskov and Meron Zeleke
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Every year, several hundred thousand migrants return to Ethiopia, where they struggle to integrate back into society. They must deal with the traumatic events of their journeys while also facing social stigma and exclusion. KEY FINDINGS ■ All Ethiopian migrants using irregular routes have experienced or witnessed violence and trauma ■ Sexual violence and abuse are widespread among Ethiopian male migrants yet taboo, and psychosocial support should address the vulnerabilities of men ■ Livelihood interventions should address the problem of social stigma ■ Re-integration is difficult as social positions and relationships will never be as they were before migration
- Topic:
- Development, Migration, Border Control, and Fragile States
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
235. What Next for UN Peace Operations? Global crisis management in a post-COVID-19 world
- Author:
- Richard Gowan and Louise Riis Andersen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- With a global recession looming due to COVID-19,the large blue-helmet UN missions will be harder to sustain, both financially and politically. So the UN is learning to “think small”. Recommendations ■ The Secretariat should work with member states to improve the UN’s mechanisms for deploying bespoke, case-specific peace operations and SPMs at short notice. ■ Member states should stand ready to deploy small numbers of military and police personnel to serve in more flexible forms of UN operations and to offer specialized expertise and training as requested. ■ Member states should pay their respective share of the UN peacekeeping budget on time and increase their voluntary contributions.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, and South Sudan
236. Decentralisation amidst hybrid governance: The case of northern Mali
- Author:
- Anna Schmauder
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Malian peace agreement of 2015, known as the Algiers Agreement, aimed to improve relations between select representatives of northern Mali and central state authorities through decentralisation. Yet, in contrast to ongoing counterterrorism efforts, governance reform through the decentralisation process has received little attention from either the Malian government or its international partners. As a consequence, effective decentralisation in northern regions remains limited at this point in time. This policy brief contributes to the debate on decentralisation in Mali by illustrating how decentralisation in northern Mali has become an issue of contestation between central state authorities and armed signatories. Decentralisation remains captured in a logic of territorial control, in which the representation of armed signatories takes precedence before the needs and interests of marginalised tribes and communities in northern regions. Central state authorities and signatories have been reinforcing this logic of representation, each trying to hamper the influence of the other over territorial control in northern regions.
- Topic:
- Governance, Fragile States, Conflict, and Decentralization
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mali
237. COVID-19 Impact on West African Value Chains
- Author:
- Loïc Bisson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Countries in West Africa were quick to take strong prevention and mitigation measures to stem the spread of COVID-19. But border closure, curfew, market closure and limited internal movement already impact key value chains in the region and threaten livelihoods. It risks lowering decent working conditions and labour rights and increasing child labour and gender violence. Informal, migrant and female workers are especially at risk and are likely to take the brunt of the economic downturn. Disruptions in the food value chain also endangers food security in the region. Instability in West Africa threatens both European and Dutch economic, security and geopolitical interests. By virtue of being involved in various West African value chains, European and Dutch consumers and companies bear both leverage and responsibilities in regard to secure livelihoods, good working conditions free of gender violence and respect for labour rights in West Africa.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Fragile States, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and West Africa
238. Improving decentralised natural resource management in the Sahel: The case of the Sourou river plain in Mali
- Author:
- Fransje Molenaar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Over the course of 2019, and despite being located in a region marked by violent conflict, the Inter collectivité du Sourou achieved a unique feat in the West African region. It developed an Integrated and Sustainable Development Programme (ISDP) that defined concrete actions to implement the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the Sourou river plain in Mali in an adaptive fashion and set itself up as the main coordinator for the implementation of this plan. Both achievements will help the region coordinate natural resource management – thereby addressing one of the region’s root causes of conflict. This policy brief outlines how the effective devolution of power was achieved through an inclusive rather than a ‘rubber stamp’ approach to the planning process and by having a donor that made the improvement of local governance a result of its own intrinsic value. For the long- term implementation of the ISDP, care should be taken to ensure the continued inclusivity and representativeness of local development and resource management while remaining mindful of the interaction of this new governance structure with existing governance and power structures.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Governance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, and Sahel
239. When pandemic meets poverty: Pandemonium for pastoralists in the Sahel
- Author:
- Loïc Bisson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- In the Sahel, market closures, border closures and movement restrictions to stop the spread of COVID-19 have disrupted the structurally weak pastoral sector, already made vulnerable by conflict. There are several signs of the negative impacts of COVID-19, such as difficulties in moving food and people, poor access to markets, rising food prices and loss of livelihoods. In Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad, the pandemic adds to ongoing problems of conflict and political instability. The threat to pastoralists is to lose their herds through overgrazing, zoo-sanitary diseases or lack of income to feed the animals. If pastoralists go bankrupt, they could be forced to sell their livestock at devastatingly low prices to large landholders or wealthy neo-pastoralists. This scenario would aggravate an already-growing trend in the region – escalating economic inequality and the consolidation of wealth among an elite. This risks fuelling inequality and deepening existing fault lines. The priority for Sahelian governments should be clear: keep food coming and people moving, and develop a post-COVID-19 strategy to tackle the vulnerabilities revealed by the pandemic.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Poverty, Conflict, Pastoralism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahel
240. Moment of truth: Mali teeters between President Keïta and the protest movement
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- President Keïta is currently facing a mass movement demanding he step down. Decrying rampant corruption, election rigging, a collapsing economy and rising unemployment, a lack of security, and ethnic conflict, the movement sees his ouster as the first step toward a fourth republic and democracy.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democracy, Protests, and Unemployment
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mali
241. The fourth coup: Mali between peaceful transition and security vacuum
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- A group of Malian soldiers overthrew President Keita and formed a committee to lead the country. This was welcomed internally and denounced externally. However, their mission now faces domestic and foreign pressures that necessitate them to find a consensual solution to this crisis.
- Topic:
- Security, Coup, Peace, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mali
242. Freedom under Siege: Freedom of Association and Assembly in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Selby Xinwa
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- This briefing paper provides an overview of the shrinking civic space as well as the situation on the violations of the rights to freedom of association and assembly in sub-Saharan Africa. It also highlights innovation and strategic advocacy approaches employed by sub-Saharan Africa's civil society to defend their civic participation space.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Advocacy, Civil Liberties, and Civic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
243. Learning Together: A Guide for Feminist Practice in Violence Against Women and Girls Research Collaborations
- Author:
- Leah Goldmann, Elizabeth Dartnall, Anik Gevers, Edgar Karungi, Lori Michau, Janet Nakuti, and Sophie Namy
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
- Abstract:
- Prevention of and response to violence against women and girls (VAWG) has become more prioritized at the global level in the past decade, with recognition of the pressing need to create safer environments for women and girls around the world. This is a welcome development, building on years of feminist activism and research in the Global South
- Topic:
- Women, Research, Sexual Violence, and Collaborative Learning
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Global Focus
244. The Twentieth Anniversary of UNSCR 1325: What’s next in the era of COVID-19?
- Author:
- Helen Scanlon, Pravina Makan-Lakha, and Molly Hamilton
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The year 2020 marked two milestones for women’s rights and the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda: the 25th anniversary of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, as well as the 20th anniversary of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 (UNSCR 1325). Both of these international commitments stressed the importance of advancing women’s rights, particularly in relation to their participation efforts to achieve peace and security. However, the COVID-19 pandemic derailed existing plans to mark these achievements. Instead of allowing the pandemic to further disrupt the strides that have been made to advance women’s human rights over the last two decades, it is critical that peace and security activists reframe the circumstances created by the pandemic as an opportunity to secure meaningful change. Within this context, this Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) will critique the progress made in the WPS’ agenda since the adoption of UNSCR 1325 and provide African perspectives on what should be prioritised over the next 20 years.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Women, Peace, COVID-19, and WPS
- Political Geography:
- Africa
245. Policy implications of empirically estimated fiscal multipliers for South Africa
- Author:
- Johannes Hermanus Kemp and Hylton Hollander
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Despite the frequent use of fiscal policy for stabilization purposes, there remains significant uncertainty regarding the impact of fiscal policy decisions on macroeconomic outcomes. This impact is quantified by calculating fiscal multipliers. A fiscal multiplier measures the impact of government’s tax and spending decisions on economic output.
- Topic:
- Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Financial Stability
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
246. Mining for change How can natural resources support inclusive growth in Africa
- Author:
- John Page and Finn Tarp
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- For a growing number of countries in Africa the discovery of natural resources is a great opportunity, but one accompanied by considerable risks. There is an extensive literature linking natural resource dependence to poor economic performance. One cause is that resource-abundant economies tend to have economic and export structures that are highly concentrated on only few export products. Most of Africa’s resource-rich economies experienced increases in export concentration during the first decade of the twenty-first century.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Natural Resources, Economic Growth, Mining, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Africa
247. Localizing the 2030 Agenda in West Africa: Building on What Works
- Author:
- Jimena Leiva Roesch and Masooma Rahmaty
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Despite advancement in some areas, countries around the world are still not on track to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The transformation needed to achieve these goals depends on innovation and initiatives that build on existing capacities and fit the needs of local contexts, yet the 2030 Agenda remains largely unknown at the local level. Therefore, a key avenue for progress is to move the focus below the national level to the subnational level, including cities and communities. Toward this end, together with partners including the UN Trust Fund for Human Security and the Government of The Gambia, the International Peace Institute hosted a forum in Banjul on “Localizing the 2030 Agenda: Building on What Works” in October 2019. This forum provided a platform for learning and sharing among a diverse group of stakeholders, including government officials from both the national and municipal levels, UN resident coordinators, and civil society representatives. Drawing on the discussions at the forum, this report highlights the path some West African countries have taken toward developing locally-led strategies for implementing the 2030 Agenda. It focuses in particular on four key factors for these strategies: ownership across all levels of society; decentralization; coordination, integration, and alignment; and mobilization of resources to support implementation at the local level.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Sustainable Development Goals, Regional Integration, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa and West Africa
248. Beyond 2020: Exploring the Potential for a Strong UN-AU Peacebuilding Partnership
- Author:
- Priyal Singh and Daniel Forti
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Effective and sustainable multilateral peace and security initiatives in Africa depend on a strong partnership between the United Nations and the African Union. While their strategic partnership has grown since 2017, collective peacebuilding efforts still lag behind cooperation in other areas. Different institutional mandates, policy frameworks, and operational practices have led them to carve out distinct roles in the multilateral peacebuilding space, often impeding closer cooperation. This report—a joint publication of IPI and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS)—analyzes the UN and AU’s approaches to peacebuilding and identifies opportunities for a more robust and effective peacebuilding partnership. These include aligning their political strategies, fostering cooperation between the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) and the UN Peacebuilding Commission (UNPBC), reconciling differences in their peacebuilding approaches, securing sustainable financing, and capitalizing on emergent peacebuilding approaches. The paper concludes with recommendations for UN and AU member states and officials: UN and AU member states should build consensus around shared peacebuilding concerns, better institutionalize the working relationship between the AUPSC and the UN Africa Group, and strengthen implementation of the recommendations from the 2018 meeting between the AUPSC and UNPBC. UN and AU officials should include peacebuilding and development personnel in annual engagements on peace and security, explore opportunities for joint analysis and planning for peacebuilding activities, and share more analysis and expertise at the working level.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, United Nations, Peace, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa
249. UN Peacekeeping Operations and Pastoralism-Related Insecurity: Adopting a Coordinated Approach for the Sahel
- Author:
- Gabriel Delsol
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- In recent years, pastoralism has increasingly become associated with violent conflict. In the Sahel, pastoralism-related insecurity is directly linked to macro-level conflict dynamics in contexts with UN peacekeeping missions, including Mali, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Darfur, Abyei, and South Sudan. However, the UN system has been slow to adopt a coordinated response to this phenomenon. This issue brief provides a preliminary overview of peacekeeping missions’ efforts to mitigate growing pastoralism-related insecurity in their areas of operation. It analyzes six missions that are active within or near the Sahel region. After framing pastoralism-related security, it explores how the Security Council has addressed this issue in mission mandates. It then looks at how missions have tried to address pastoralism-related insecurity and how they can leverage partnerships with other actors as part of a multi-stakeholder approach. The paper concludes that while peacekeeping missions are not the primary means for addressing the multidimensional drivers of pastoralism-related insecurity, they can help mitigate risks, including through political and logistical support to other actors. Together with these partners, peacekeeping missions should leverage their comparative advantages to help address pastoralism-related insecurity in the Sahel.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Pastoralism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sahel
250. Eritrean refugees struggle after the peace agreement with Ethiopia: Peace and Plight
- Author:
- Hans Lucht and Tekalign Ayalew Mengiste
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- Following the 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea more than 60,000 Eritrean refugees arrived in Ethiopia. Thousands continue to arrive every month. They live under harsh conditions that call for humanitarian action. KEY TAKEAWAYS: Vulnerable Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia, women, elderly, disabled, and children need urgent humanitarian assistance, including shelters, food, water, sanitation, energy, and health care. Funds are needed for UNHCR, partner organizations, and ARRA to address continuous refugee arrivals in Ethiopia and the challenges posed by COVID-19. Donor countries should put pressure on Ethiopia to reintroduce prima facie recognition and allow access to protection, while resettlement quotas abroad should be increased. Humanitarian support and emergency shelters should be provided in transit locations for smuggled and trafficked Eritreans in need of urgent protection.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Treaties and Agreements, Refugees, Peace, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea
251. Internally displaced people in Mali's capital city: When a crisis turns chronic
- Author:
- Boukary Sangaré and Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
- Abstract:
- As world attention focuses on Central Mali’s conflict hot spots, more than 50,000 of the country’s 311,193 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have fled to Mali’s southern cities, including the capital Bamako. The inhuman conditions in the informal IDP camps manifest an overall failure to protect civilians despite the presence of more than 25,000 foreign soldiers, 13,000 of whom are UN peace keepers. To support peacekeeping efforts, long-term development investment must be complemented with short-term assistance to provide protection, food and shelter to Mali’s most vulnerable victims of war. RECOMMENDATIONS: Mali needs to develop and implement a national strategy that respects the rights of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to make free, informed and voluntary choices of settlement. Long-term development assistance must be complemented with flexible, immediate and short-term assistance to the most vulnerable IDPs. Access to accommodation, jobs and health facilities is needed to avoid precarious survival strategies, such as street begging, child marriage and survival sex.
- Topic:
- Development, Displacement, Crisis Management, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mali
252. An International Partnership for Sudan’s Transition: Mobilizing Support, Preventing Instability
- Author:
- Gerrit Kurtz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Germany has helped lead efforts to mobilize international support for Sudan’s transition process since President al-Bashir was ousted last year. To be successful, Germany and its partners must deliver on their promises to support the transitional government’s economic reforms with substantial aid. They should keep Sudan’s diverse partners aligned while broadening their outreach. Sudan is thus a test case for how much political capital Germany will spend on its stated objective of conflict prevention.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Government, Partnerships, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Sudan, and Germany
253. How Much Lockdown is Enough?
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Paul von Chamier, and Nendirmwa Noel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Lockdown measures have been an integral tool in the fight against COVID-19. But they come at a high cost, given their impacts on economies, employment and incomes, education, food systems, mental health and even the potential for civil unrest. This policy briefing by Sarah Cliffe, Paul von Chamier, and Nendirmwa Noel examines how countries are balancing the need for lockdown with policy measures to alleviate their effects and plans for reopening. It provides comparative data on the stringency of lockdowns, showing that while there has been a convergence towards more stringent measures over time, there is also wide variation among countries—even among those in the same region, or income group. A brief case study of Sierra Leone and snapshot examples of policy from ten other countries illustrates the range of answers to the question of how much lockdown is enough.
- Topic:
- Employment, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sierra Leone, and Global Focus
254. Mapping African regional cooperation: How to navigate Africa’s institutional landscape
- Author:
- Amandine Gnanguênon
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Regional organisations have proliferated in Africa in recent decades, with many organisations attempting to address similar issues in similar parts of the continent. International donors have helped create this situation by funding new and existing African regional organisations without questioning the downsides of doing so. In recent years, African regional organisations have increasingly sought to concentrate on security issues, contributing to a rise in the use of ‘hard security’ solutions at the expense of ‘people-centred’ approaches. This proliferation comes with further costs, such as wasted resources, and ‘forum shopping’ by state leaders. Europeans and other international donors should take stock of the situation they have helped create. As a first step, they should agree a tacit ‘non-proliferation agreement’ before considering other options.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Regional Cooperation, Peace, and Development Aid
- Political Geography:
- Africa
255. A return to Africa: Why North African states are looking south
- Author:
- Anthony Dworkin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- North African countries, each for their own reasons, are increasingly turning their attention towards sub-Saharan Africa. Morocco is pursuing a comprehensive campaign to increase its influence and win support with regard to Western Sahara. Algeria may be showing new flexibility in its response to security threats to its south. Tunisia is beginning to look for new economic opportunities in Africa. Egypt is responding to a series of strategic concerns, particularly over the waters of the Nile. Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia are also all dealing with increased migration flows, with migrants seeking to work on their territories or pass through it to reach Europe. This North African turn to sub-Saharan Africa offers opportunities for European cooperation. But the EU should be aware of the distinctive agendas of North African countries and the reservations that their initiatives engender in some countries.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Migration, Regional Cooperation, and Foreign Direct Investment
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, North Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia
256. The post-coronavirus world is already here
- Author:
- Josep Borrell
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The pandemic will likely magnify existing geopolitical dynamics and test the strength of Europe’s democratic systems. Europe needs a new kind of globalisation capable of striking a balance between the advantages of open markets and interdependence, and between the sovereignty and security of countries. Europe should work to prevent the US-China rivalry from having negative repercussions in certain regions of the world – particularly Africa. European leaders need to focus on meeting the immediate needs of healthcare systems, providing an income for people who cannot work, and giving businesses guarantees. The European model will only mean something in the eyes of the world if we can successfully promote solidarity among EU member states.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Geopolitics, Coronavirus, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Europe, and United States of America
257. Willing to kill: Factors contributing to mob justice in Uganda
- Author:
- Ronald Makanga Kakumba
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Mob justice is a form of extrajudicial punishment or retribution in which a person suspected of wrongdoing is typically humiliated, beaten, and in many cases killed by vigilantes or a crowd. Mob action takes place in the absence of any form of fair trial in which the accused are given a chance to defend themselves; the mob simply takes the law into its own hands (Ng’walali & Kitinya, 2006). Mob justice is not only criminal but also amounts to a violation of human rights (Uganda Human Rights Commission, 2016). Over the past decade, Uganda has seen a significant rise in the number of cases of mob justice. According to the Uganda Police Force’s (2013-2019) annual crime reports, 746 deaths by mob action were reported and investigated in 2019, compared to 426 in 2013, a 75% increase. “Mob kills 42 in 7 weeks,” the Daily Monitor (2019) reported in March 2019, citing police figures – an average of six lynchings a week. Homicides by mob action in Uganda occur mainly in response to thefts, robberies, killings, and reports of witchcraft (Uganda Police Force, 2018). According to the 2015 Afrobarometer survey in Uganda, one in six Ugandan adults said they took part in mob justice during the preceding year or would do so if they “had the chance.” This suggests that mob justice is not just a fringe problem in Uganda but commands attention and requires collective action. Why would a substantial number of Ugandans resort to taking the law into their own hands as an alternative form of “justice”? Analysts have pointed to a number of factors that might contribute to a willingness to engage in mob justice. One is a lack of trust in the formal criminal justice system to administer fair and timely justice. A 2005 study in Uganda showed that mob actions were often motivated by widespread suspicion or misunderstanding of the justice system, especially concerning the procedure of police bail, under which suspected culprits can be temporarily released before the court process (Baker, 2005). A study in southern Nigeria also reported that a lack of trust in the police was one of the motivations for the alarming incidence of “jungle justice” (Obarisiagbon, 2018). Research has also shown that personal victimization by crime can have a lasting impact on attitudes toward the police, the courts, and the criminal justice system overall (Berthelot, McNeal, & Baldwin, 2018; Dull & Wint, 1997; Koenig, 1980; Sprott & Doob, 1997), as can negative personal experiences with the courts (Olson & Huth, 1998; Kanaabi, 2004). Amid Uganda’s surge in mob justice, Afrobarometer findings tell us that popular trust in the police and courts has been declining while citizens’ perceptions of corruption in these criminal justice institutions has been rising. Statistical analyses show that a lack of trust in the police is associated with a willingness to engage in mob justice, while perceived corruption undermines trust and thus indirectly contributes to a willingness to join others in mob actions. Further, our analysis finds that being a victim of crime (physical assault), encountering problems in the court system, finding it hard to obtain police assistance, and having to pay a bribe to police or court officials are factors that make people more likely to say they would take part in mob action against suspected criminals. Based on these findings, we offer recommendations to mitigate Uganda’s growing problem of mob justice.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Courts, Police, Justice, and Bribery
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
258. Corruption Crossroads? Rising Perceptions of Graft Weaken Citizen Trust, Threaten Botswana’s Democratic Standing
- Author:
- Thomas Isbell and Batlang Seabo
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Corruption is widely considered one of the greatest impediments to sustainable development in African countries (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, 2016; Bratton & Gyimah-Boadi, 2016). Corruption hinders macro-economic growth by weakening governance structures and diluting the positive effects of investments. At the micro level, corruption can trap the poorest, who are least likely to have alternatives to state provision of services, in a downward spiral (Peiffer & Rose, 2014). Botswana has long been considered one of Africa’s least corrupt countries and top performers in democratic practice and good governance. But while Transparency International’s (2019) Corruption Perceptions Index continues to rank Botswana as best on the continent, other observers have questioned this reputation (Mogalakwe & Nyamnjoh, 2017; Good, 2017). Allegations have focused on, among other things, high-level corruption in military procurement contracts under former President Ian Khama, close ties between members of the ruling party and the agricultural sector, and charges that well-connected suspects are often cleared by the courts (Motlogelwa & Civillini, 2016; Konopo, 2017; Good, 2017; Norad, 2011; Sebudubudu 2014; Gasennelwe, 2018). Recent corruption scandals have reached the highest levels of government, including the alleged looting of the National Petroleum Fund (Kgalemang, 2019; Motshegwa, Mutonono, & Mikazhu, 2019), and are still before courts of law (Shuma, 2020). In this paper we use Afrobarometer survey data to explore citizens’ perceptions of corruption in Botswana. We find that far more people see corruption increasing than decreasing and that perceptions of corruption in the Presidency and Parliament have risen sharply over the past decade. Fewer Batswana approve of how the government is handling the anti-corruption fight, and while many believe ordinary people can help fight corruption, a majority say that people risk retaliation if they report corruption to the authorities. A correlation analysis suggests that perceptions of corruption, especially in the Presidency, are strongly associated with less popular trust in public institutions and less satisfaction with democracy.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Governance, Democracy, and Citizenship
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
259. PP67: COVID-19 in Africa - Vulnerabilities and Assets for an Effective Response
- Author:
- Robert Mattes, Carolyn Logan, E. Gyimah-Boadi, and George Ellison
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Not only did the COVID-19 disease arrive on Africa’s shores (and at its airports) later than in Asia, Europe, and North America (Loembé et al., 2020), but for months the numbers of infections and deaths also appeared to remain relatively low. As of early August, the continent had experienced more than 1 million confirmed cases and 23,000 deaths (Africa CDC, 2020), though these figures were increasing rapidly. At this point, the causes behind Africa’s comparatively low initial numbers are not completely clear. One reason may be that early and decisive responses on the part of many African governments prevented the virus from gaining an easy foothold (Beech, Rubin, Kurmanaev, & MacLean, 2020; Hirsch, 2020; Levinson, 2020; Moore, 2020; Loembé et al., 2020). Indeed, according to the International Center for Not-for-Profit Law (2020), 46 African countries took some form of official action – in the form of new legislation or executive orders and decrees – restricting or banning travel and public gatherings, enforcing quarantines, or in some cases imposing full “lockdowns.” But Africa, somewhat paradoxically, may also have benefited from a range of structural factors, such as the continent’s relatively limited international exposure, its relatively low rates of intra- and inter-state air travel (Marbot, 2020), a generally hot and humid climate, relatively lower levels of population density and urbanization (De Waal, 2020; Marbot, 2020), and its substantially younger populations (Binding, 2020). It may have also profited from cultural factors, such as the fact that older people tend to remain with their families, rather than being institutionalized in retirement homes (Marbot, 2020), though this also has consequences for residential density, or that it has a more collectivist, less individualistic culture, which, according to recent research, may make COVID-19 interventions more effective (Frey, Presidente, & Chen, 2020). Yet most public health experts remain wary, and still expect significant further transmission of the virus across the continent, requiring drastic public health responses and interventions, especially where governments eased initial restrictions and lockdowns. Indeed, some officials have expressed concerns that Africa’s low numbers merely reflect very low rates of testing (Sly, 2020) and even, in some countries such as Tanzania, deliberate under-reporting (BBC, 2020). Some press reports have described instances where local reports of death rates bear little relation to official data (MacLean, 2020; York, 2020). These concerns appear well-founded given that community transmission is now present in all African countries and the number of infections increased by 50%, and deaths by 22%, in the last two weeks of July (World Health Organization, 2020). And officials at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention have warned that Africa could well become the next epicenter of the pandemic (Loembé et al., 2020). If, as these events suggest, early interventions in African countries successfully erected a wall that kept the virus at bay, albeit temporarily, how well prepared are these countries if and when the virus penetrates their initial defenses? A wealth of Afrobarometer survey data suggests that Africans are especially vulnerable, in part due to lack of access to clean water and adequate health care (Gyimah-Boadi & Logan, 2020a; Logan, Howard, & Gyimah-Boadi, 2020). In this paper, we attempt to take the issue of vulnerability a step further by developing a more fine-grained approach, using insights from public health to examine different dimensions and components of vulnerability (Morrell, 2018). Specifically, we develop three inter-connected indices intended to capture the extent to which Africans might 1) run a heightened “risk of exposure to infection,” 2) face a heightened “susceptibility to illness” (once infected), and 3) face a “lack of resilience” (to recover once they become ill). In addition, a fourth index of “lockdown readiness” estimates the proportion of people who are more (or less) likely to be able to withstand the most severe forms of government health interventions, i.e. lockdowns or “shelter in place” orders, We then demonstrate how cross-country variations in the extent of exposure and susceptibility, and in the degree to which people are prepared for a lockdown, might help us better understand policy choices that African governments have made, and the extent to which these interventions were able to achieve desired reductions in mobility and contact. Finally, we briefly explore some of the soft assets that governments can bring to the table, such as legitimacy and trust, that may help increase compliance with restrictions on mobility, especially in countries we have identified as least able to tolerate lockdowns.
- Topic:
- Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa
260. Africa’s Digital Divide and the Promise of E-learning
- Author:
- Matthias Krönke
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- According to UNESCO (2020), approximately 1.2 billion students and youth worldwide are affected by school and university closures because of the COVID-19 pandemic. To adjust to these new circumstances, governments must develop innovative solutions to ensure inclusive learning opportunities during this period of unprecedented educational disruption. This is especially true in African countries, where despite recent progress traditional education has faced infrastructural challenges and struggled to develop the human resources necessary to address students’ educational needs (Krönke & Olan’g, 2020; United Nations, 2019; UNESCO Institute of Statistics, 2016. This policy paper uses Afrobarometer survey data to look at digital infrastructure, the availability of digital devices at the household level, and digital literacy among African adults. While rates of digital literacy among children are likely to differ, it is important to understand these dynamics among adults for at least two reasons. First, adults are likely to shape children’s access to and experience with technology. Second, understanding current levels of access to devices and levels of digital literacy among adults provides a baseline against which future assessments can measure progress over time. Survey findings from Afrobarometer Round 7 (2016/2018) show a substantial digital divide both across and within countries, reflected in uneven access to resources such as electricity and unequal access to and use of smartphones and computers. The results suggest that government efforts to redress widespread inequalities need to be increased drastically to avoid the widening of an education gap among their citizens. The paper also discusses the potential benefits of providing smartphones and computers to those who currently do not have access to such devices.
- Topic:
- Education, Infrastructure, Inequality, Digital Economy, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa
261. Democratic Dividend: The Road to Quality Education in Africa
- Author:
- Matthias Krönke
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Education is a powerful tool to fight poverty, enable upward socioeconomic mobility, and empower people to live healthier lives. But while the global adult literacy rate continues to increase, from 81% in 2000 to 86% in 2018 (World Bank, 2019), the challenge of access to quality education remains particularly severe in Africa. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, globally one out of five children aged 6-17 years were not in school; more than half of these children live in sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, many African pupils attend schools that are inadequately equipped, creating a difficult learning environment. For example, more than half of the schools in sub-Saharan Africa do not have access to basic drinking water, handwashing facilities, the Internet, or computers (United Nations, 2019). COVID-19 may exacerbate these challenges as pupils lose school time, unequal access to online learning heightens inequalities, and health care and social-safety costs and economic losses put pressure on limited resources. Africans are aware of education challenges. Across 34 African countries surveyed by Afrobarometer between late 2016 and late 2018, one in five respondents (21%) cited education as one of the most important problems their governments should address, placing it among citizens’ top five priorities (Coulibaly, Silwé, & Logan, 2018). Not surprisingly, younger people placed substantially greater emphasis on education than their elders. At a global level, the United Nations (UN) has highlighted the importance of quality education by including it in its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDG 4 calls for governments to “ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all.” To this end, the UN outlines specific targets to be achieved by 2030, including ensuring that “all youth and a substantial proportion of adults, both men and women, achieve literacy and numeracy.” An important step toward this goal is that by 2030, all girls and boys should be able to “complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education” (United Nations, 2019). Many African governments have made important commitments to universal education. Of the 34 countries surveyed by Afrobarometer in 2016/2018, 33 have made school attendance compulsory (for periods ranging from five to 11 years), and 33 provide free primary education. (See Appendix Table A.2 for details.) Many governments also commit substantial portions of their yearly budgets to improving education. For example, in Côte d’Ivoire, eSwatini, Ghana, Malawi, Senegal, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe, more than 25% of total government expenditures go to education (World Bank, 2020). Afrobarometer surveys point to slow but steady progress as fewer Africans go without formal education and more attend school beyond the primary grades. But in some countries, two-thirds of adults still have no formal schooling, and significant gender gaps continue to disadvantage girls and women. Overall, just a slim majority of Africans think their government is doing a good job on meeting educational needs. Factors that contribute to these evaluations include whether citizens find it easy to obtain school services and whether they think schools are transparent about their budgets and responsive to reports of teacher misconduct. More fundamentally, our analysis finds that more democratic countries are seen as better able to provide public education. Citizens are more likely to be satisfied with government performance on education if immediate avenues of transparency and accountability at the school level are embedded in a broader political system that encourages these qualities.
- Topic:
- Education, Poverty, Democracy, and Inequality
- Political Geography:
- Africa
262. Lived Poverty on the Rise: Decade of Living-Standard Gains Ends in Africa
- Author:
- Robert Mattes
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afrobarometer
- Abstract:
- Economic destitution – whether measured as the frequency with which people go without basic necessities or as the proportion of people who live on less than $1.90 a day – declined steadily in Africa between 2005 and 2015. However, the findings of Afrobarometer Round 7 surveys, conducted in 34 African countries between late 2016 and late 2018, demonstrate that improvements in living standards have come to a halt and “lived poverty” is once again on the rise. To prevent squandering hard-won gains in Africans’ living standards, the data point to the necessity of a renewed commitment by citizens, governments, and international donors to defending democracy and expanding service-delivery infrastructure. Key findings Between 2005 and 2015, Afrobarometer surveys tracked a steady improvement in the living conditions of the average African. Measured as the frequency with which people go without a basket of basic necessities (food, clean water, health care, heating fuel, and cash income), “lived poverty” dropped in a sustained fashion over this period – a trend matched by consumption-based estimates of poverty by the World Bank. The most recent Afrobarometer surveys, however, suggest that Africa is in danger of squandering these gains in living standards. While the citizens of most African countries are still doing better than they were in 2005/2006, deprivation of basic necessities – captured by our Lived Poverty Index – has increased in about half of surveyed countries since 2015. The trend is similar for “severe lived poverty,” the extent to which people experience frequent shortages of basic necessities. Lived poverty varies widely across the continent. At one extreme, people rarely experience deprivation in Mauritius. At the other, the average person went without several basic necessities several times in the preceding year in Guinea and Gabon. In general, lived poverty is highest in Central and West Africa, and lowest in North Africa. Lived poverty also varies widely within societies. Reflecting the legacies of the “urban bias” of successive post-independence governments, rural residents continue to endure lived poverty far more frequently than those who live in suburbs and cities. A multilevel, multivariate regression analysis of more than 40,000 respondents across Africa reveals that people who live in urban areas, those who have higher levels of education, and those who have a job (especially in a middle-class occupation) are less likely to live in poverty, as are younger people and men. But besides personal characteristics, we locate even more important factors at the level of government and the state. First, Africans who live in countries with longer experiences of democratic government are less likely to live in poverty. Second, people who live in communities where the state has installed key development infrastructure such as paved roads, electricity grids, and piped-water systems are less likely to go without basic necessities. Indeed, the combined efforts of African governments and international donors in building development infrastructure, especially in rural areas, appears to have played a major role in bringing down levels of poverty – at least until recently.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Infrastructure, Inequality, and Local
- Political Geography:
- Africa
263. Four scenarios for electoral violence: Policy Brief the 2020 Ivorian Presidential and Parliamentary elections
- Author:
- Kars de Bruijne
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Presidential and parliamentary elections in Cote d’Ivoire are scheduled for October 31, 2020. The past months have seen serious acts of violence during the campaign. As more violence is expected, the central question is where this violence is taking and will be taking place and which conditions are encouraging it. This policy brief explores the election violence literature and derives four scenarios to explaining and show which of Cote d'Ivoire's 31 regions will be affected for what reasons by electoral violence. Exploration of violence data highlights that presently, electoral violence is highest in competitive areas. This implies that the incumbent and opposition use violence in ‘swing’ areas and areas where they need to poach substantial number of votes from the opponent.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Violence, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Côte d'Ivoire
264. Towards mutually beneficial CRU Policy Brief EU-West African migration cooperation? Assessing EU policy trends and their implications for migration cooperation
- Author:
- Johannes Claes, Leonie Jegen, and Omar N. Cham
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The political stakes of migration cooperation at domestic, regional and international levels are crucial when assessing the potential of West African states to establish mutually beneficial relations. European–West African migration cooperation is unlikely to be mutually beneficial without consideration of such local realities, and political and social stakes. This policy brief assesses the extent to which policy trends in the EU external migration governance framework, as put forward in the New Pact on Migration and Asylum and the new EU Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021-2027, match the Union’s commitment to building a mutually beneficial partnership with third countries. This question will be assessed by drawing on EU migration cooperation with West African states. It will show that the rhetoric of a mutually beneficial relationship and a paradigm shift is not demonstrated in the actual policy content.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Migration, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and West Africa
265. German Priorities for Africa during Its Presidency of the EU Council
- Author:
- Bram Dijkstra and Marta Martinelli
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Open Society Foundations
- Abstract:
- 2020 is a pivotal year for EU-Africa relations. Germany’s presidency of the EU Council provides an opportunity to address structural challenges—such as health care infrastructure, food provision, and managing the refugee and migration crises—revealed by the current COVID-19 crisis. The policy brief details Germany’s ambitions to foster a new partnership with Africa and offers recommendations in three priority areas: health care policy, economic development, and democratic governance.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Diplomacy, Migration, Food, Health Care Policy, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, and Economic Development
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Germany
266. Political Vigilante Groups in Ghana's Democratic Governance: Some Policy Options
- Author:
- Justice Richard Kwabena Owusu Kyei
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- This policy brief explores the activities of political vigilante groups in Ghana in relation to the Vigilantism and Related Offenses Law, 2019. It notes that contrary to the widespread perception of political vigilante groups as violent political actors, they contribute to Ghana’s stability and democratic peace. It therefore comes up with recommendations for inte- grating them into Ghana’s political and democratic architecture. Political vigilantism1 in Ghana dates back to the struggle for indepen- dence and the First Republic. The earliest of such groups, the Veranda Boys, was formed by Osagyefo Kwame Nkrumah, Ghana’s first prime minister and president. Political vigilante groups2 have featured in Ghana’s Four Republics (1960-1966; 1969-1972; 1979-1981 and 1993-Present). However, due to the short-lived nature of the first three Republics, their impact on the governance system could not be fully examined. Since the Fourth Republic has endured for over two decades, its longevity has provided adequate time for political vigilante groups to evolve and sit- uate themselves firmly in the political process. In the Fourth Republic these groups have coalesced around the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and National Democratic Congress (NDC). This policy brief argues that political vigilante groups cannot be branded only as violent and disruptive groups and disbanded on that basis. Rather they should be recognized as political actors with certain interests that are compatible with democratic gover- nance in Ghana. Their activities are pertinent to the enhancement of peace and democratic growth espe- cially at the local government level.
- Topic:
- Political Activism, Political stability, Peace, Independence, and Vigilantism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
267. Promoting Reconciliation Among Post-genocide Second Generation Rwandans
- Author:
- Marie Grace Kagoyire
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- More than two decades after the genocide in Rwanda, the trauma is still haunt- ing some families and being transmitted from survivor parents to the next gen- eration. Within this time period, there have been interventions addressing the mental health needs of those traumatized by the genocide. Policies aimed at promoting reconciliation, while reducing tensions among former enemies to prevent future collective violence among citizens have also been implemented.1 This policy brief is based on the findings of a research project conducted in eastern Rwanda between July and November 2019. It involved interviews with genocide survivors who are now parents, descendants of genocide survivors aged between 18-25 years old, and staff from psycho-social and peacebuild- ing organizations. The study explored intergenerational trauma transmission from genocide survivor parents to their descendants born after the 1994 geno- cide and its implications for reconciliation.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Trauma, Reconciliation, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Rwanda
268. Deployment of Soldiers to Communities experiencing Gang Violence in South Africa: Policy Perspectives
- Author:
- Godfrey Maringira and Diana Gibson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- The point of departure of this policy brief is the failure by the police to effec- tively deal with gang-related violence in the Western Cape and the deploy- ment of soldiers to the affected communities. It examines challenges linked to the deployment of soldiers in response to spiralling levels of urban violence and crime, which should normally fall within the purview of the police. The brief identifies the challenge of perception in black townships where soldiers are viewed as ‘strangers’ or outsiders, particularly by community leaders who are more knowledgeable and experienced in dealing with gang-related violence. Data collected during fieldwork in black townships point to the limitations of the military approach. In this regard, a case is made to the government to direct more resources towards community and non-governmental structures for combating gang-related violence. While we do not seek to over-romanticize the capacity of grassroots and non-governmental structures, there is sufficient evidence that the government and the police can tap into local knowledge, provide resources, and build capacities to effectively address gang-related violence. Community based and non-governmental organizations, which are active at the grassroots level, are often well placed to assist with social and economic interventions that can ameliorate circumstances which contribute to gang violence.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Violence, Local, and Gangs
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
269. Higher Education as a Pathway toward Peace in Burkina Faso: New Policy Perspectives
- Author:
- Dagan Rossini and Felicity Burgess
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- Higher education plays an important role in promoting inclusive democracies and driving social and economic change. Many African universities, however, face key structural challenges including limited Internet, outdated curricula, overburdened faculty, and archaic infrastructure. These systemic issues have been exacerbated by rising enrollment rates in the wake of global pressures to expand access and ensure quality of education for all. As governments and multilateral institutions look to capitalize on the continent’s demographic dividend, it is important to rethink, revitalize, and restructure African university systems, particularly in (post-)conflict settings. This policy brief is based on a report prepared for the Ministry of Higher Education, Scientific Research, and Innovation in Burkina Faso. It identifies a mismatch between the supply of skilled graduates and labor market demands, bearing in mind Burkina Faso’s ambition to become one of three main knowl- edge hubs in West Africa and the ongoing crisis in the Sahel region. Research was conducted between September 2019 and April 2020 and included three weeks of qualitative research in the capital city, Ouagadougou, involving focus groups and semi-structured interviews with 67 individuals. Findings suggest that increased collaboration between the education and economic sectors will enhance both student learning experiences and professional practices, thereby enabling more peaceful and democratic futures
- Topic:
- Education, Governance, Democracy, Peace, Higher Education, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Burkina Faso
270. Local Water Conflicts in Uganda: Options for Peacebuilding Policy and Practice
- Author:
- Resty Naiga
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- This policy brief draws on the results of field-based research on water-related conflicts in Western Uganda to analyze the governance and institutional build- ing aspects of conflict prevention and peacebuilding. The brief provides policy and practical options on how to address governance aspects of peacebuild- ing in relation to local water conflicts.
- Topic:
- Water, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Local
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
271. From Bad To Worse? The Impact(s) of Covid-19 On Conflict Dynamics
- Author:
- Katariina Mustasilta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- In December 2019, when the novel strain of coronavirus first hit the headlines, 12 countries in the world were experiencing organised violence on an extensive scale, with more than 100 incidents of violence and attacks against civilians recorded in that month. To most of these countries, the virus seemed a distant threat at the time. Yet, a few months and over 7 million recorded Covid-19 cases later, it has evolved from a distant threat to a stark reality. The global crisis – which has unleashed an emergency in the world’s public health, political, and economic systems simultaneously – has subjected even the most stable societies to unprecedented disruption. In conflict-affected countries, i.e. countries with ongoing conflicts or a high risk of relapse into conflict, and countries emerging from conflicts, the pandemic has added another layer on top of often multiple existing layers of crisis. Against the backdrop of expert warnings over the particular vulnerabilities of conflict-affected countries to Covid-19, this Brief analyses key emerging dynamics and repercussions in conflict-affected countries in general, and in five countries in particular: Colombia, Libya, Sudan, Ukraine and Yemen. The focus here is especially on conflicts and countries previously covered by our Conflict Series, so as to build on already accumulated analysis. The Brief identifies three main ways in which the global crisis impacts conflict-affected countries. First, the pandemic itself risks exacerbating inequalities and further burdening already vulnerable groups within conflict-affected societies. Second, local and external conflict parties are quick to capitalise on various opportunities arising from the policy responses to the crisis which also complicate peace and crisis management efforts. Third, the economic fallout puts severe strain on already weak state institutions and undermines governance outcomes (thus increasing the risk of conflict). Of these three dimensions, the policy responses and distraction created by the pandemic have thus far had the most significant repercussions for conflict dynamics, unfortunately often for the worse. The global scale of the crisis and its continuing evolution complicate efforts to seize momentum for peace and set the pandemic apart from previous catastrophic/disruptive events, such as the tsunami in 2004, that in some cases led to a positive shift in local conflict dynamics. The Brief is structured as follows: the main text analyses the emerging trends catalysed by the pandemic crisis in conflict-affected contexts, while the case study boxes discuss the unfolding processes in specific countries. The last section discusses the policy options for preventing further escalatory repercussions.
- Topic:
- War, Inequality, Conflict, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, Asia, South America, North Africa, North America, and Africa
272. Sahel Climate Conflicts? When (fighting) climate change fuels terrorism
- Author:
- Luca Raineri
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Levels of armed violence in the Sahel are skyrocketing. Conflict metrics show that the region is caught in a spiral of insecurity.1 Communal violence and jihadist insurgencies have significantly undermined local states’ grip over large parts of their territories, particularly in the three-border area straddling Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Amidst the proliferation of non-state armed groups, attacks by terrorist groups linked to al-Qaeda or the Islamic State networks have risen sharply since 2015. Policy and media discourses suggest that soaring terrorist violence is linked to, if not driven by, climatic and environmental factors. In the Sahelian context – the argument goes – in a region characterised by environmental degradation and sustained population growth, climate change has the potential to exacerbate competition over dwindling resources, fuelling conflict escalation and radicalisation. This narrative draws on global discourses about resource conflicts and climate wars, and contributes to shaping security and development policies targeting the Sahel. Climate change mitigation and environmental protection measures are thus seen as structural preconditions to tackle the root causes of the Sahel’s insecurity and rising (jihadist) violence. The idea that terrorism and climate change are somehow connected is a seductive one. It offers international donors the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone by addressing jointly what are arguably the most pressing issues facing the international community, thereby overcoming political divides. And it provides local governments with a narrative that depoliticises conflicts and downplays their own responsibilities. However, such simplistic Malthusian arguments that connect terrorism in the Sahel to climatic and environmental factors do not stand up to empirical scrutiny. Whether and how natural resources are associated with conflicts’ onsets and dynamics, and to what extent climate change has the potential to exacerbate these trends, are questions that remain highly contested. Just as much as with other issue-areas of climate change, there is no shortage of unsubstantiated misconceptions about climate and conflict, and environment and security more broadly. This Conflict Series Brief sets out to illustrate that misconceived environmental security policymaking, especially when based on rhetorical shortcuts that overlook and contradict the most recent evidence, is not only ineffective, but can have radically adverse impacts. Even if well-intentioned, climate change mitigation and environmental protection measures based on false premises may result in conflict exacerbation, rather than resolution: a situation that violent jihadist entrepreneurs exploit. To this end, the Brief scrutinises three programmes rolled out in the Sahel to fight desertification, prevent food crises, and preserve wildlife which have ended up contributing to the encroachment of terrorist groups in the region. The lessons learnt from these cases helps highlight the policy implications for existing and future efforts to fight violent extremism and promote sustainable development sponsored by the Sahel’s international partners, including the EU.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso
273. Russia's Forays into Sub-Saharan Africa: Do you want to be my friend, again?
- Author:
- Giovanni Faleg and Stanislav Secrieru
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- In 1977, the Soviet Union’s leadership was in a jubilant mood as Ethiopia had just switched sides to the socialist camp. By the time of this event, the Kremlin had been conducting a renewed offensive on the continent for several years, propping up socialist regimes and ‘liberation movements’ in Angola, Mozambique, Namibia, Rhodesia (later Zimbabwe) and South Africa. Yet contrary to warnings that the Soviets might eventually ‘swallow’ all of sub-Saharan Africa, by 1990 the offensive had fizzled out: ideologically and financially broken, Moscow cut military aid, suspended credit lines, wound down diplomatic representations, closed cultural centres and ultimately withdrew political support. When rebel forces advanced towards Addis Ababa in 1991, Moscow stood idly by as the Derg regime – its former poster child – disintegrated. Over the course of the next two decades, post-Soviet Russia showed little interest in the sub-continent and only in the late 2010s did the Kremlin once again display the ambition to play a greater geopolitical role: sub-Saharan Africa remerged in Russian political discourse and trade and diplomatic traffic picked up. Simultaneously, Moscow revived alumni associations of Africans who studied in the Soviet Union and launched initiatives to lure more students to Russia. The Wagner Group – a military enterprise connected to the Russian state – also expanded its radius of action south of the Sahara. But what is driving Moscow’s renewed activism? How different it is from its previous diplomatic thrusts? Can a coherent strategy be discerned behind this push? Finally, how is sub-Saharan Africa reacting to Russia’s overtures and what does it mean for the EU?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Eurasia, and Sub-Saharan Africa
274. Conflict and Cooperation: Transitions in Modern Ethiopian-Sudanese Relations
- Author:
- John Young
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- The Nile River bears considerably on inter-state relations among the countries through which it flows; with struggles over control of its waters driving the political undercurrents of the region. Ethiopia and Sudan exemplify such relations, shaped as much by the ebb and flow of the Nile as the rise and fall of the regimes that have governed them. This Briefing Paper by the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project analyzes this relationship and its place in a politically dynamic and evolving region. Conflict and Cooperation: Transitions in Modern Ethiopian–Sudanese Relations finds that the cold war both shaped and was itself shaped by the conflicts within and between the two countries. Following the end of the cold war, relations considerably improved under President Omar al-Bashir in Sudan and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in Ethiopia. However, the recent emergence of new governments in both countries does not guarantee a cordial relationship in the future as on-going political reforms, internal threats, and external influences from powerful states weigh heavily on both countries.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and Ethiopia
275. A Missing Mandate? Casualty Recording in UN Peace Operations
- Author:
- Hana Salama
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- UN peace operations are uniquely positioned—and mandated—to collect and monitor data on conflict-related casualties. Through the collection and analysis of this type of data, UN missions can both improve the effectiveness of peace operations and assist the international effort among UN Member States to achieve progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16—particularly Indicator 16.1.2 on conflict-related deaths. This Briefing Paper by the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) and Human Security Baseline Assessment in Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) projects examines the current capacity of UN peace operations as data providers. A Missing Mandate? Casualty Recording in UN Peace Operations reviews current practices of data collection in UN operational settings and provides case studies through three UN peace operations in the DRC, Mali, and South Sudan. The paper, authored by casualty recording expert Hana Salama, concludes that UN missions already do much of the work required but lack the effectual mandate, resources, and coordination to ensure that the information is useful for the purpose of the SDGs.
- Topic:
- Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, Sustainable Development Goals, Conflict, Peace, and Human Security
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and South Sudan
276. Hollow Promises: The Risks of Military Integration in Western Equatoria
- Author:
- Flora McCrone
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- In 2018, the Government of the Republic of South Sudan (GoSS), the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), and the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) signed the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). As part of the transitional security arrangements within the R-ARCSS framework, all warring parties agreed to assemble combatants in designated cantonment sites to facilitate their training, and later, integration into a new ‘unity’ army or other national security services. A Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project examines the process of cantonment and the challenges in operationalizing the Agreement. Hollow Promises: The Risks of Military Integration in Western Equatoria describes the transitional security arrangements of the R-ARCSS and the scope of force sizes to be cantoned. It follows with a case study of Western Equatoria’s Arrow Boys, demonstrating how their involvement exposes some of the fault-lines within the broader integration process. The Briefing Paper finds that the implementation of the R-ARCSS is leading to deteriorating local security, community cohesion, and stability.
- Topic:
- Security, Treaties and Agreements, Military Affairs, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
277. Tri-border Transit: Trafficking and Smuggling in the Burkina Faso–Côte d’Ivoire–Mali Region
- Author:
- Roberto Sollazzo and Matthias Nowak
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- The tri-border area between Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Mali has long been an important zone of commerce for West Africa, and a key transit route for the trade flowing between the Gulf of Guinea, the Sahara, Sahel, and Mediterranean. In recent years, however, smuggling and trafficking has risen in the subregion because of the growing demand for illicit goods and firearms. This demand is fueled by communities’ need for self-defense due to banditry and the increased presence of jihadist groups; needs of traditional hunters and non-state security providers; and the ecosystem around artisanal and small-scale gold mining in which criminals seek weapons to target the miners who in turn equip themselves with firearms for protection against attacks. These dynamics heighten the risk of insecurity and instability. Tri-border Transit: Trafficking and Smuggling in the Burkina Faso–Côte d’Ivoire–Mali Region, by the Survey's Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project, takes a detailed look at the actors enabling smuggling and arms trafficking in the region, identifies the drivers of this traffic, and analyzes the impacts on local communities. The paper finds that there are three key trafficking axes in the area and that states are largely unable to control their borders and prevent these activities. The study also shows that illicit firearms are often trafficked together with other smuggled goods such as gold or drugs, using the ant trade method.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons, Political stability, Trafficking, and Smuggling
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, Côte d'Ivoire, and Burkina Faso
278. Consumer Expenditure Inequality in Botswana
- Author:
- Lillian Mookodi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- For over three decades, Botswana has achieved a fast growing economy, with an annual growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) averaging 10.9 percent in the period 1981- 90, faster even than the East Asian Tigers or China (Good and Hughes, 2002). Between 2000 and 2001 financial year, Botswana’s economy recorded higher growth rates of 9.1 percent, an increase from 8.1 percent recorded between 1999 and 2000, which was mainly attributed to the growth in the mining sector (BIDPA Briefing, 2002). To emphasise on the desire to continue growing, Botswana has adopted Vision 2036, and other development strategies and policies to improve the implementation of interventions tackling unsatisfactory social indicators. Botswana has also subscribed to both continental and international frameworks, such as the Africa Agenda 2063 and United Nations (UN) Millennium Declaration and its Eight Millennium Development Goals, and further signed up for the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of 2030. Regardless of the afore-mentioned positive growth, and immense efforts, the country has not achieved the desirable results it sought with regard to some of the social indicators, such as employment, unemployment, inequality and poverty.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, Poverty, Labor Issues, Inequality, Demand, Unemployment, and Consumerism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
279. Burundi’s Institutional Landscape after the 2020 Elections
- Author:
- Stef Vandeginste
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Burundi’s forthcoming elections mark the next stage in the implementation of the Constitution of 7 June 2018. Four key institutional innovations, situated mostly at the level of the executive branch, will take effect after the elections. Contrary to the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement of August 2000 and the Constitution of 18 March 2005, the 2018 Constitution no longer requires the establishment of a coalition government. While re- introducing a prime minister, the new constitution also enhances presidential powers. Furthermore, the 2018 Constitution has an immediate and longer-term impact on the use of ethnic quotas
- Topic:
- Elections, Constitution, Leadership, Ethnicity, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Burundi
280. Context matters – Why Africa should Tailor its own Measures to fight COVID-19
- Author:
- Nina Wilen
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- African governments have been faster than most of their European counterparts in imposing measures to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak despite dealing with numerous other challenges. However, context matters, and for Africa, the political and socioeconomic consequences of the lockdown measures may cause more havoc than the actual virus. This brief identifies political, economic and social risks related to coronavirus responses in Africa and emphasises the disproportionate burden carried by women. It argues that localised measures, which include dialogue, transparency and flexibility, may be the only realistic way forward, while underlining the need for wealthier states to provide generous aid packages, debt cancellations and continued investments, in spite of current challenges, in order for Africa to pull through yet another challenge.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa
281. Going the Extra Mile for the 2020 Elections in the Central African Republic
- Author:
- Peter Knoope, Stephen Buchanan-Clarke, and Valerie Arnould
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The upcoming 2020 presidential election in the Central African Republic (CAR) has the potential to derail the implementation of the 2019 Khartoum Peace Agreement and bring about a return to widespread conflict. This calls for immediate and collaborative action to be taken by those national, regional, and international actors working for peace in the country. This policy brief aims to outline some of the key risks posed by the upcoming elections and provide recommendations to mitigate their potential to negatively impact on ongoing peace and reconciliation efforts.
- Topic:
- Security, Elections, Peace, Voting, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Central African Republic
282. Ghana’s Oil Sales: Using Commodity Trading Data for Accountability
- Author:
- Alexander Malden and Denis Gyeyir
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic has severely impacted the Ghanaian economy, with the IMF projecting that growth will slow to just 1.5 percent in 2020 compared to December 2019’s projection of 5.8 percent. The country, like many oil-rich states, is facing the challenge of responding to the pandemic with reduced government revenues resulting from the oil price crash. The coronavirus has also exacerbated the country’s debt sustainability issues, which were already on the rise prior to the pandemic. Ghana is still a relatively new oil producer, with first production from its Jubilee field occurring in November 2010 and the first cargo sold in early 2011. However, the sector represents a significant source of revenue. Ghana’s oil revenues totaled USD 938 million in 2019. Around USD 802 million of this amount, or 86 percent, came from cargos of oil sold by the Ghana National Petroleum Company (GNPC). This oil represents the state’s share of production that it derives from in-kind royalty payments and GNPC’s carried and participating interest (CAPI) in the three oil-producing projects in the country. GNPC oil sales equaled a full nine percent of Ghana’s government revenue in 2019. Responding to the pandemic with reduced government revenues makes it more important than ever that citizens are able to analyze GNPC’s oil sales activities. In this context, in this report the authors demonstrate how publicly available data on the state’s oil sales activities can be used by civil society organizations (CSOs), government, media and other oversight actors to hold the government, GNPC and trading companies accountable for how they sell and manage Ghana’s oil and its revenues. Commodity trading activities are often opaque and do not receive the same level of scrutiny as a state’s upstream operations. This opacity can create opportunities for governance and corruption risks that result in the loss and mismanagement of potential revenues. However, Ghana is one of the most transparent countries in reporting on its commodity trading activities. GNPC, the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Ghana, the Public Interest and Accountability Committee and Ghana Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (GHEITI) all disclose information on the state’s oil sales activities. As one example, the MoF has disclosed information on the volume, unit price, date of sale and value for every cargo sold by GNPC to date.
- Topic:
- Debt, Oil, Accountability, Commodities, Trade, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
283. DRC’s Mining Revenues: Increasing Accountability by Analyzing Payments to Governments Reports
- Author:
- Kaisa Toroskainen, Alexander Malden, and Jean Pierre Okenda
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Natural Resource Governance Institute
- Abstract:
- This report explores the payments made by ten international mining companies to Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) government entities since 2015. These payments, amounting to $2 billion, have been disclosed under European Union (EU), Canadian and United Kingdom (U.K.) laws. DRC government agencies can use this data to report on revenues as the country’s mining code requires. Civil society actors, auditors and international partners, notably the International Monetary Fund, can also benefit from using payments data to monitor critical policy and governance issues in the DRC.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Accountability, Mining, and IMF
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo
284. A Review of the Performance of the 2020 National Budget
- Author:
- Mbewe Kalikeka
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- This briefing note provides a review of the performance of the 2020 National Budget. It also provides contexts of the macroeconomic fundamentals with bearing on the revenue and expenditure trends. The brief is based on an analysis of the fiscal tables of Government; it compares the 2020 approved budget allocations with the preliminary outturns for 2020, as well as the preliminary and actual outturns for 2019. The layout of this brief is as follows: Section 2 gives a brief overview of the macroeconomic performance in 2020. Section 3 and Section 4 shed light on the revenue and expenditure performance respectively. Section 5 concludes the brief and provides recommendations.
- Topic:
- Budget, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Revenue Management
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
285. Recalibrating US-Africa Policy
- Author:
- James Barnett
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- For better or worse, US-Africa policy will not be an urgent priority for the Biden-Harris administration when it takes office in January. Domestic challenges, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic and attendant economic crisis, will dominate the administration’s focus from day one. In the realm of foreign affairs, issues ranging from transatlantic relations to East Asian security are likely to command the attention of administration officials during its first months in office. Nevertheless, the day-to-day demands of the executive branch should hopefully not distract the new administration from the many challenges and opportunities Africa presents to US foreign policy. Some of these challenges are already being discussed in Washington, at least in broad terms. China’s continued efforts to build influence across Africa and the expansion of Salafi-jihadi insurgencies in various parts of the continent have been on the radar of US policymakers for several years. However, an exclusive focus on easily identifiable enemies and competitors misses the situation’s big picture and carries significant risks. Many of the impediments to US foreign policy in Africa are rooted in larger structural and ideological issues that Washington has little ability to affect in the short-term. Similarly, a black-and-white view of international politics elides the many ways external interventions impact Africa. For example, several of Washington’s Middle Eastern partners have waged proxy conflicts in East Africa that are detrimental to regional stability and, by extension, US interests. A better approach to US-Africa relations must begin, first and foremost, with a deeper understanding of the continent’s complex politics and its role within the wider international system.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and United States of America
286. A Post-Brexit Trade Policy for Development and a More Integrated Africa
- Author:
- Kimberly Ann Elliott
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The United Kingdom will confirm its departure from the European Union on 31st January 2020. As part of its independent trade policy, the government has committed to improve access to UK mar- kets for the poorest countries. This note sets out three ways it can do so: expanding duty-free market access while avoiding piecemeal trade agreements that undermine Africa’s own trade integration ef- forts; using an alternative framework for those trade agreements it does negotiate with developing countries; and supporting a “back-to-basics” multilateral negotiation at the World Trade Organiza- tion that could help to rebuild confidence in that institution and thus protect the interests of small and vulnerable countries. After a brief review of the background and context, it sets out specific pro- posals in each of these areas.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United Kingdom, and Europe
287. Implementing the Mop Barrier Assessment Methodology With the Zambia Police Service
- Author:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- In the context of the Canadian-led Elsie Initiative aiming to reduce barriers for uniformed women in UN Peace Operations, DCAF has developed the Measuring Opportunities for Women in Peace Operations (MOWIP) methodology, in partnership with Cornell University and research institutions in eight troop- and police contributing countries across the world. The MOWIP methodology aims to provide institutions with the evidence base necessary to design effective interventions which substantially increase the number of women who deploy. While it is currently being piloted in 7 other countries, the MOWIP methodology was successfully implemented in Zambia with the Zambia Police Service (ZPS) between May 2019 and March 2020, in partnership with the Southern African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (SACCORD). This resource highlights the key takeaways from the process of implementing the MOWIP methodology in Zambia along with good practices and lessons learned at each stage, including the preparation phase, the data collection phase, the data analysis phase and the validation phase. It aims to provide guidance to TPCCs or security institutions interested in implementing the MOWIP methodology themselves regarding the resources and time commitment required, and outlines the outcomes and benefits of undergoing the Barrier Assessment for the ZPS.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Police, and Models
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
288. Starting Young to Prevent Violence Against Women
- Author:
- Sexual Violence Research Initiative
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Sexual Violence Research Initiative
- Abstract:
- More than 50 percent of children have experienced some form of sexual, physical or emotional abuse or neglect in their lifetime. The wide-ranging and lifelong consequences of witnessing or experiencing violence in childhood can be profound.1 Individuals exposed to childhood violence, including child sexual abuse, physical abuse and harm, or witnessing the abuse of their mothers, are at greater risk of becoming perpetrators or victims as adults. Through our core work and grant-making, the Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI) is building evidence to help us respond to violence as early as possible and to stop it from continuing. Between 2016 and 2020, we funded several studies on violence against children in Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and other regions (in partnership with the World Bank Group). This research has taught us that services and prevention programmes must start with parents and families, and continue throughout the individual’s life. To be most effective, programmes need to target critical development phases, from pre-conception and conception through early childhood to adolescence. Programmes to prevent violence in the home, including programmes that offer parenting support, are essential. Continuing research into childhood violence, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, is essential. Research can help us to effectively prevent and respond to both violence against women and violence against children, and it is essential for creating policies and practices that really work.
- Topic:
- Education, Children, Gender Based Violence, and Youth
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Latin America, North America, and Southeast Asia
289. Risk of Mass Atrocities in Cameroon
- Author:
- Kyra Fox and Andrea Gittleman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- Cameroon currently ranks number nine of countries at risk of mass killing in the Simon-Skjodt Center’s Statistical Risk Assessment.1 The situation has deteriorated significantly since 2017, when Cameroon ranked 36th. After Anglophone civilians launched protests in late 2016 alleging marginalization by the Francophone-majority government, state security forces responded violently, allegedly arresting, beating, and shooting demonstrators.2 Clashes ensued, with security forces reportedly killing over 20 people in a 12-day period in largely peaceful protests in September and October 2017.3 Shortly after, Anglophone separatists began fighting for independence for the territory they referred to as Southern Cameroons or Ambazonia. The crisis emerged from the long-standing political grievances of the Anglophone community. Yet today, fighting between the two sides makes it difficult to discern motives. Security forces are reportedly targeting Anglophone civilians accused of supporting separatists. It is unclear to what extent security forces are also targeting the Anglophone linguistic and cultural identity. Meanwhile, armed separatists claiming to represent the Anglophone population are reportedly targeting civilians they perceive as supporting the government. This policy brief provides an overview of the risks of mass atrocities in Cameroon’s Anglophone regions and provides recommendations to the Cameroonian government, armed separatist groups, and international actors to prevent atrocities and protect civilians.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, State Violence, Risk, Atrocities, and Atrocity Prevention
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Cameroon
290. The Private Sector and Atrocity Prevention: Lessons from Côte d’Ivoire’s 2010-11 Electoral Crisis and the Role of the Business Community in Preventing Violence in 2020
- Author:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- Côte d’Ivoire's economic stability is critical to West Africa's development and inextricably tied to the global economy. Past periods of conflict, including the civil war from 2002-07 and the 2010-11 electoral crisis, resulted in thousands of deaths and billions of dollars lost throughout the country and region. Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential election is less than a year away, and though atrocity crimes are not currently taking place, early warning signs of violence are already visible in a country that has never experienced a non-violent transfer of power. These signs warrant immediate attention, not only from Côte d’Ivoire’s political leadership and the international community, but also from business leaders. While the Ivorian government holds the keys to stability and peace throughout the electoral process, members of the business community—both Ivorian companies and international companies with economic interests in Côte d’Ivoire—can be critical allies in preventing violence in 2020. Business leaders should signal to the political parties that sacrificing the economy and civilian lives for political gain will not be accepted.
- Topic:
- Elections, Business, Violence, Private Sector, Instability, and Atrocity Prevention
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Côte d'Ivoire
291. Infrastructures and Power in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Silvia Clombo and Eduard Soler I Lecha
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- Geopolitics is back. A more aggressive great power competition and the disruptive effects of new technologies have given new impetus to the analysis of the impact of geography on political decisions. Over the last decade, the Mediterranean and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have experienced profound and far-reaching social, political and economic transformations that have contributed to unprecedented levels of volatility and uncertainty. Some of these shifts have reshaped many of the traditional features of the geopolitical order in place in the region for decades, while others might have the potential to do so in the near future. Increased competition among regional actors but also new stakes by emerging global powers are redefining the contours of regional geopolitics and the way in which this region relates to broader global trends. Infrastructures is one of the areas where the effects of those global and regional dynamics are more visible and this is why a good grasp of the geopolitics of infrastructures can help us understand the broader geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and North Africa better. This is the main goal of this Joint Policy Study that ultimately aims to fill a gap in the scholarly work on the Mediterranean and the MENA region by delving into issues of geopolitical competition, conflict and cooperation from the point of view of the use of strategic infrastructures. This exercise continues and complements other collective endeavours, namely the MENARA project, which have sought to make sense of the acceleration of changes in the region since 2011 and have analysed them as a continuation of pre-existing trends and as part of larger transformations at a global scale. The geopolitical relevance of infrastructures is nothing new, as evidenced by the centuries-old competition for control of some strategic passageways such as the Strait of Gibraltar, the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, the Strait of Hormuz, the Straits of Tiran or the Suez Canal. While acknowledging some constant features, our analysis also takes into consideration the impact of new trends at the global and regional levels. Moreover, while the study of infrastructures has been a key feature in classical geopolitics, there are aspects often associated with critical geopolitics – the geopolitics of cooperation and the relevance of actors other than states such as transnational corporations, cities or civil society groups to provide a few examples that stand at the core of our analytical approach to the topic.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA
292. Removing Obstacles to Women’s Participation at the Peace Table and in Politics
- Author:
- Pearl Karuhanga Atuhaire and Grace Ndirangu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Women In International Security (WIIS)
- Abstract:
- Women who seek to participate in peace processes and political decision-making face many obstacles. To achieve sustainable peace and development, societies emerging from conflict must remove these obstacles. In so doing, they must recognize and prioritize that women are fully capable of active participation in all political processes. Women’s equal participation in leadership at every level and in every sector is imperative to eliminating gender-based violence, poverty and enabling sustainable peace. Across the globe, women are increasingly assuming political leadership. For example, Ethiopia elected a woman president in 2018, and half of the nation’s parliamentarians are women. In the Republic of Rwanda, women make up 78 percent of the representation in parliament.1 Leadership in politics and peacebuilding are linked. That is, women’s political leadership paves the way for women’s participation in peacebuilding processes and vice versa.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Gender Issues, International Cooperation, Peacekeeping, Women, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Rwanda
293. Chinese investment in Uganda: new impetus for sustainable development?
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
- Abstract:
- Chinese investment is flowing fast into Uganda, and spreading into the agriculture and forestry sectors. The government needs to keep pace with these developments so the benefits can be shared by Ugandans. A new analysis shows that, while the jobs and new businesses created are well received, the working conditions and environmental practices of Chinese companies are often poor. Many people evicted from their land to make way for new projects have not been compensated. To hold Chinese companies to account, government agencies, with support from NGOs, must share information about these investments and introduce stronger regulation — in particular to uphold community rights. In turn, Chinese companies must be more transparent, responsible and legally compliant. With a proactive and accountable strategy for Chinese investment management, Uganda could make major gains for sustainable development.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, Business, Accountability, Investment, and NGOs
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, and China
294. Participation in Non-Farm Activities in Rural Sudan: Patterns and Determinants
- Author:
- Ebaidalla M. Ebaidalla
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
- Abstract:
- Despite the importance of non-farm income in the livelihood of the rural population in Sudan, information available on its size and determinants is scant. This study examined the patterns and determinants of decisions to participate in non-farm activities in rural Sudan. It also investigates whether the determinants of participation in non-farm activities vary across agriculture sub-sectors and income groups as well as among males and females. The data for this study was sourced from the Sudanese National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS) conducted by Sudan’s Central Bureau of Statistics in 2009. The results show that non-farm income is a crucial source of livelihood, contributing about 43% to household income in rural Sudan. The results of multinomial logit and probit estimation methods indicate that educational level, mean of transportation, lack of land and lack of access to formal credit are the most significant factors that push rural farmers to participate in non-farm activities. Surprisingly, the effect of household income was positive and significant, implying that individuals from rich households have higher opportunity to engage in non-farm activities compared to their poor counterparts. Moreover, the analysis revealed some symptoms of gender and location disparities in the effect of factors that influence participation in non-farm activities. The study concluded with some recommendations that aim to enhance the engagement in non-farm activities as an important diversification strategy to complement the role of the agriculture sector in improving rural economy in Sudan.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, Gender Issues, Income Inequality, and Rural
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
295. Determinants and Economic Impact of International Tourist Arrivals in Ghana
- Author:
- Isaac Bentum-Ennin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
- Abstract:
- Given Ghana’s endowments such as attractive sites; more than 500km of beaches, and World Heritage forts and castles, tourism is seen as an important tool for promoting the socio-economic development in that it generates many economic benefits such as incomes, employment and tax revenue, both within the sector and through linkages with other sectors. This study first, analyses the factors influencing the upward trends in international tourists’ arrivals and receipts and second, quantifies the impact of the tourism sector on the Ghanaian economy. The objective of this policy brief is to inform the Ministers of Interior, Tourism and Finance that the most important factor influencing international tourists’ arrivals in Ghana is the prevailing civil liberties and political rights and that Nigeria is a significant substitute destination. Also, that the tourism sector has had the greatest impact on the whole Ghanaian economy when compared to sectors such as agriculture, industry and other services sectors. It is hoped that appropriate legislations will be passed to deepen these liberties and rights and that policy measures will be put in place to ensure macroeconomic stability in order not to lose competitiveness to Nigeria. Also, it is hoped that the Tourism Ministry would lobby for more investment and more resources from the Finance Ministry in order to expand the sector since it has a huge potential to stimulate economic growth.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Tourism, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ghana
296. Performance of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Uganda: The Role of Innovation
- Author:
- Ibrahim Okumu and Faizal Buyinza
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
- Abstract:
- Using the 2013 World Bank Enterprise Survey data for Uganda, this paper employs the quintile estimation technique to explain the relationship between innovation and firm performance in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Innovation involves the introduction of a new or significantly improved production process, product, marketing technique or organizational structure. Our results indicate that individual processing, product, marketing and organizational innovations have no impact on labour productivity as proxied by sales per worker. However, the results indicate the presence of complementarity between the four types of innovation. Specifically, the effect of innovation on sales per worker is positive when an SME engages in all four types of innovation. Even then the complementarity is weakly positive with incidences of a negative relationship when using any combination of innovations that are less than the four types of innovation. Policy-wise the results suggest that efforts to incentivize innovation should be inclusive enough to encourage all four forms of innovation.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Economic Growth, and Economic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
297. Household Economic Well-Being and Child Health in The Democratic Republic of Congo
- Author:
- Janvier Mwisha-Kasiwa
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
- Abstract:
- Health is both a direct component of human well-being and a form of human capital that increases an individual’s capabilities and opportunities to generate income and reduces vulnerability. It is argued that these two views are complementary, and both can be used to justify increased investment in health in developing countries. Therefore, investment in child health constitutes a potential mechanism to end the intergenerational transmission of poverty. This paper examines the empirical impact of household economic well-being on child health, and the gender differences in effects using the Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2014. A series of econometric tools are used; the control function approach appears to be the most appropriate strategy as it simultaneously removes structural parameters from endogeneity, the sample selection and heterogeneity of the unobservable variables. Results suggest a significant positive effect of household economic well-being on child health. However, the magnitude of the effect varies by gender of household head; children from households headed by males appear healthier compared to those from female-headed households. In the context of DR Congo, female-headed households often have a single parent, therefore, the economic well-being effect on child health in the male sub-sample can be considered to include the unobserved contribution of women. These results have implications for public interventions that enable women to participate in paid labour market activities as a means of improving household economic well-being, which in turn could improve child health.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Gender Issues, Health, Health Care Policy, and Children
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo
298. The Productivity Cost of Power Outages for Manufacturing Small and Medium Enterprises in Senegal
- Author:
- Lassana Cissokho
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the productivity effects of power outages on manufacturing Small Scale Enterprises (SMEs) in Senegal, using a panel data on manufacturing firms. Productivity is estimated using stochastic frontier models, and power outages measured by their frequency or their duration. We controlled for firms owning a generator as well. The main results are drawn from random effects in a linear panel model. Nonetheless, the results remain consistent to the robustness checks using different models: a double-sided truncated data model and a generalized linear model, and different productivity measures: data envelopment analysis. We find that power outages have negative significant effects on the productivity of SMEs; for example, the manufacturing sector lost up to around 11.6% of the actual productivity due to power outages in 2011, and small firms appear to be affected more than medium ones, 5% against 4.3%. Further, firms with a generator were successful in countering the adverse effect of power outages on productivity. Besides, another outstanding result is the significant positive effect of access to credit on productivity. At last, it appears that productivity increases with firms’ size.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Political Economy, Economic structure, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, and Manufacturing
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Senegal
299. The Linkage between Foreign Direct Investment and Intra-Regional Trade within ECOWAS
- Author:
- Eme Dada
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
- Abstract:
- The objective of this policy brief is to inform the Ministers of Trade and Investment of Economic Community of West African State (ECOWAS) countries about the importance of the linkage between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and trade for developing countries. FDI is considered an important means of promoting export of the host countries. This is true of inward FDI, which comes for efficiency reasons. Conversely, there is concern that large flows of outward FDI results in a decline in the host country’s exports and loss of jobs. This in turn assumes that the exports of the source country will fall as FDI substitutes for trade.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Senegal, Mali, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Cape Verde, and Gambia
300. Human Mobility in the Context of Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa –Trends and Basic Recommendations for Development Cooperation
- Author:
- Benjamin Schraven, Stephen Adaawen, Christina Rademacher-Schulz, and Nadine Segadlo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- This paper provides an overview of what is actually known about the relationship between climate change and human mobility in West, East and Southern Africa – the most affected regions of Sub-Saharan Africa. Although there is a general lack of data on “climate migration”, trends can be deduced from the growing number of case studies and research projects. This paper also formulates some recommendations for German and European development policies for addressing “climate migration” in Africa. The adverse effects of climate change in the three regions are mainly linked to increasing rainfall variability and a higher frequency or intensity of floods and droughts. These effects are a major challenge for human security. The consequences for human mobility, which range from forced displacement to circular labour migration, are embedded in a complex and very context-specific set of political, social, economic, cultural and ecological factors. Due to generally fragile contexts and armed conflicts, the risk of forced displacement in the context of climate change is probably the highest in the Horn of Africa. In all three regions, many households affected by climate change can be considered “trapped” – mobility is not an option for them at all. If mobility is possible, it often takes the form of individual and circular labour migration. Under favourable circumstance (e.g. in the absence of labour exploitation), money earned by migrants might help their households to compensate or at least mitigate the losses induced by climate change (“migration as adaptation”). The ideal political response towards human mobility in the context of climate change is to avoid forced displacement, to maximise positive mechanisms of migration and to minimise negative aspects like labour exploitation. This demands a multi-sectoral and multi-level policy approach.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Migration, and Human Security
- Political Geography:
- Africa