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312. Automation and AI: Implications for African Development Prospects?
- Author:
- Charles Kenny
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Now that computers are capable of taking the jobs that require brain as well as brawn, it may appear there is little left for humans to do. There are many scary forecasts of the capacity of automation and AI to replace a lot of workers very fast. Self-driving vehicles may wipe out opportunities for taxi driv- ers and truckers, for example. Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson note there are 3.5 million people em- ployed driving vehicles in the US. If automation reduced that to 1.5 million, that alone would increase total US labor productivity by 1.7 percent,1 but it would also leave two million drivers looking for work. In 2013, Oxford economists Carl Frey and Michael Osborne made waves by predicting that 47 percent of US employment was automatable over the next two decades, with a higher estimate for developing countries.2 Erin Winick of Technology Review subsequently produced a summary table of job losses and gains estimations on automation.3 Some of the worldwide figures are in Table 1. There are clearly two sides to the ledger, but some of the predicted job loss numbers at the global level are considerable. The forecasts suggest bad news for Africa in particular, given concentration in types of low-skill jobs that might be easy to automate, rising working age populations, and already far too few good jobs to occupy the existing population. Arntz et al. suggest the share of workers at high risk of automation is 40 percent amongst those with a lower secondary education and above 50 percent for those with primary or less education.4 Advanced manufacturing and AI applications including automated call centers might even reverse the trend towards manufacturing and low-skilled services moving to developing countries. That would imperil a recent run of global income convergence. And there have been cases of impact al- ready: Foxconn replacing 30 percent of its workforce when it introduced robots, and 1,000 lost jobs in Vietnam when Adidas shuttered a factory and moved production to “speed factories” in Germany and the US. If this is the beginning of a trend, it would be harmful to African development prospects.
- Topic:
- Development, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Emerging Technology
- Political Geography:
- Africa
313. Promoting New Kinds of Legal Labour Migration Pathways Between Europe and Africa
- Author:
- Michael Clemens, Helen Dempster, and Kate Gough
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- As Europe’s working-age population continues to decline, sub-Saharan Africa’s is rapidly increasing. Many of these new labour market entrants will seek opportunities in Europe, plugging skill gaps and contributing to economies in their countries of destination. To make the most of these movements, the new European Commission should create and promote new kinds of legal labour migration pathways with more tangible benefits to countries of origin and destination; pilot and scale Global Skill Partnership projects between Europe and sub-Saharan Africa and within Africa; and be a positive voice for migration within Europe, promoting the benefits from migration and ensuring they are understood.
- Topic:
- Migration, Labor Issues, Legal Theory, Borders, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
314. The Kenya-Somalia Maritime Border Dispute: An Unnecessary Diplomatic Row?
- Author:
- Kizito Sabala
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- This briefing note examines the implications of the maritime border dispute between Kenya and Somalia following claims that Somalia has auctioned the oil and gas fields in the disputed territory, which are currently the subject of an International Court of Justice (ICJ) case at The Hague.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Gas, Maritime, Conflict, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, and Somalia
315. Emerging Political Reforms and the Future of Ethiopian Federalism: Policy Options for Stability, Peace, and Development
- Author:
- Asnake Kefale
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- This policy brief explores the prospects of deploying federalism as an instrument of peacebuilding in the context of emerging political reforms in Ethiopia. The ap- pointment of Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in April 2018 by the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) marks a watershed moment in Ethiopia’s political history. The agenda of political reform adopted by EPRDF was largely due to two interrelated factors. First, the need to overcome the ap- parent fissures and constant power struggles within the party, especially since the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in 2012. Second, as a response to the youth-led mass anti-government protests which started in 2015, primarily in the two most populous regions of the country, Oromia and Amhara. While the ongoing reforms are generating some optimism, there are also wor- risome developments in parts of the country. More than 1.4 million people have been displaced from their homes. The causes of their displacement are inter- ethnic tensions and identity-based communal conflicts over issues such as the ownership of natural resources linked to people’s livelihoods and the location of territorial borders. Those hit hardest by internal displacement are communities living in Gedeo and West Guji in southern Ethiopia and in the border areas of the Oromia and Somali regions. There are also tensions between the Amhara and Tigray regions over the identity of Wolqait and Raya communities.1 Similarly, the Sidama ethnic group’s demand for regional status in southern Ethiopia has cre- ated tension in the area. Moreover, there are reports of a breakdown of law and order in parts of the Amhara and Oromia regions.
- Topic:
- Development, Reform, Political stability, Peace, and Federalism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
316. Three Scenarios for Sudan: From non-violent revolution to democratic reform?
- Author:
- Katariina Mustasilta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- On 11 April, Sudan’s long-standing head of state, President al-Bashir, was removed from office by his military generals following a large-scale non-violent uprising against the regime. Four months later, on 17 August, the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the opposition coalition Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) signed a power-sharing agreement establishing a three-year transitional regime set up to steer the country towards democratic elections. The agreement forged in August was underpinned by the same dynamics that led to the overthrow of the regime in April: determined non-violent resistance demanding a transition to civilian-led rule. These events in Sudan demonstrate the potential of strategic non-violence in bringing about societal change, even in the face of violent repression. Indeed, research has found that non-violent resistance, defined as ‘the application of unarmed civilian power using non-violent methods such as protests, strikes, boycotts, and demonstrations, without using or threatening physical harm against the opponent’, is not only increasingly frequent but also more effective in achieving its goals than violent rebellion. Moreover, recent studies show that non-violent resistance creates better foundations for building democratic institutions than armed or elite-led transitions. In the light of these research findings, there is genuine potential for democratic transition in Sudan.
- Topic:
- War, Social Movement, Reform, Conflict, Protests, and Revolution
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
317. Resetting Ethiopia: Will the state heal or fail?
- Author:
- Giovanni Faleg
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Union Institute for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- While democratic reforms should in principle promote peace and stability, to what extent can they also exacerbate political violence? Although the academic debate is controversial with regard to this question,1 Ethiopia provides a good test case to look at conflict prevention from the perspective of a country that recently experienced a peaceful transfer of power, followed by fast-paced reformism, and can as a result either stabilise or fall back into conflict. Since the appointment of Abiy Ahmed Ali as prime minister in April 2018, Ethiopia has undergone a profound transformation. These changes are the result of the peaceful stepping down of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn in January 2018 in response to severe societal turmoil. In an attempt to mitigate conflict and avoid extreme fragility, the new leadership sought to accelerate its progress towards democratisation, expanded political freedoms, introduced market liberalisation and developed a new approach to foreign policy, which led, inter alia, to the peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea. These transformations, however, have not occurred without turbulence. Insecurity and ethnic tensions have been worsening, leading to an unprecedented crisis of internally displaced persons (IDPs). The new foreign policy course paved the way for trade opportunities, but also new border tensions. A coup launched by Brigadier General Asaminew Tsige on 22 June 2019 attempted to seize power in Amhara’s regional capital Bahir Dar. The attempt failed, but the coup resulted in the assassination of the Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Defense Forces General Seare Mekonnen and revealed to the world the country’s precarious political situation. This Conflict Series Brief analyses the drivers and prospects of the ongoing democratic transition in Ethiopia. It argues that while the implementation of reforms launched by the current leadership has the potential to deliver progress on democracy and growth, the outcome of the transition depends on a set of factors (domestic, economic and external), which in turn delineate three possible avenues: spiralling instability and relapse into conflict, gradual stabilisation and democratisation, or a mix of democratisation and turmoil. The conclusion outlines the possible contribution of the international community to reinforce the resilience of the Ethiopian state and its capacity to heal by bridging gaps in the current government’s ambitious reform agenda.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, Reform, Geopolitics, Fragile States, Economy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Sub-Saharan Africa
318. War Crimes and Punishment: The Terrain Compound Attack and Military Accountability in South Sudan, 2016–18
- Author:
- Flora McCrone
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- On 11 July 2016, government forces stormed Terrain, a residential compound in Juba, South Sudan. Systematic violence, looting, and vandalism ensued—including one fatality, multiple incidents of rape and torture, as well as destroyed property. War Crimes and Punishment: The Terrain compound attack and military accountability in South Sudan, 2016–18, a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project, examines both the attack and the subsequent special court martial that followed from May 2017 to September 2018. Despite the SPLA’s sub-par record of providing justice for victims of war crimes, the paper finds that when certain individuals and their interests align, accountability can be achieved through formal justice mechanisms.
- Topic:
- War Crimes, Conflict, Accountability, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan
319. Preventing Diversion: Comparing ATT and African Measures for Importing States
- Author:
- Paul Holtom and Benjamin Jongleux
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- The diversion of conventional arms from licit to illicit entities can occur at any stage of the arms transfer chain. Preventing diversion therefore requires varied measures that effectively tackle the issue along the chain. The Arms Trade Treaty Working Group on Effective Treaty Implementation (WGETI) compiled a paper on such prevention measures, which relied heavily on the experiences of major exporting states. Several African sub-regional instruments contain measures to prevent and detect diversion for states that are not major exporters. This Small Arms Survey Briefing Paper compares diversion prevention measures for importing states as identified in the WGETI paper and African sub-regional measures. It finds that the African instruments lack articles on post-delivery cooperation with the exporting state, compliance with assurances on re-export or retransfer, in addition to measures to address identified cases of diversion. However, it also finds that these instruments contain prevention measures that are not in the WGETI paper, including provisions on modes of transport and official entry points. Incorporating experiences from ATT states parties from Africa can help inform discussions on the role of importing states to prevent diversion.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Regulation, Trafficking, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa
320. Arms Monitoring in Guinea: A Survey of National Forensic Services
- Author:
- André Desmarais
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Forensic science institutions have a key role to play—not only in criminal investigations, but also in the broader fight against illicit arms proliferation. However, their ability to play this role depends on their capacities, which are not well understood. A Briefing Paper (originally published in French) on the forensic services in Guinea aims to fill this gap. Building on previous case studies on forensic services in Chad, Mauritania, and Niger, Arms Monitoring in Guinea: A Survey of National Forensic Services by ballistics specialist André Desmarais—co-published by INTERPOL and the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—examines capabilities, limitations, and needs of Guinea’s forensic services. It finds that information on calibres, models, and ammunition types of seized weapons is limited, and that the country lacks a central firearms database. Based on this analysis, the study provides tailored suggestions for areas of improvement, as a way to support Guinea in significantly reducing illicit arms flows.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, and Forensic Science
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Chad, Guinea, Mauritania, and Niger