Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: Africa / Publication Year: within 10 Years and within 25 Years

51. Youth Inclusion in Transitional Justice Policy in Africa: Youth Contribute to Shaping the Way Forward

Author:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: Including youth in the design and implementation of transitional justice is now being recognized as a key priority that has been long neglected. Such inclusion and participation would strengthen the value of transitional justice initiatives for society and make them more responsive to youth priorities and perspectives. This policy brief draws on the voices of youth in four African countries to guide the debate about how youth can be involved in transitional justice policy development and provide recommendations on taking this forward.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Youth, Violence, Participation, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa

52. Reparations for Victims of the Marikana Masssacre

Author:: Hugo van der Merwe, Jordi Vives-Gabriel, and Malose Langa
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This policy brief presents a summary assessment of the progress made in providing redress for victims of the Marikana Massacre,1 when 34 striking miners were killed by the South African Police Service (SAPS) in 2012 and ten people were killed in the conflict that led up to it. In the ten years since the massacre, there has been meagre progress in addressing its consequences. Direct victims and their relatives have not received full reparations, the community of Marikana remains underdeveloped and deeply divided, and the apartheid legacy of the mining sector in South Africa remains an unresolved wound in the national psyche. An integrated approach is required to address both the systemic injustices and the specific legacies of the Marikana Massacre, while being clear about the specific responsibilities of all the stakeholders. This policy brief spells out key facts about the events, outlines what progress that has been made in the last ten years in seeking truth, justice and reconciliation, and spells out recommendations for state, corporate and civil society actors on the way forward.
Topic:: Torture, Criminal Justice, State Violence, Police, and Reparations
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

53. Harnessing EU-Kenya renewable energy relations for a bright future

Author:: Akash Ramnath and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Unlike many of its neighbours, Kenya is progressing towards universal electrification from 100% renewable sources as set out by the country’s Vision 2030 Agenda. This feat, however, does not mean that there are not areas for improvement of its energy profile, especially around grid resilience, energy access and mitigating fluctuating supply and volatile prices. The EU stands poised to help this strengthening, not only due to the bloc’s leading presence in the Kenyan energy transition, but also because of growing geopolitical competition in Africa. The EU aims to beat its competitors in the field of green technologies. Moreover, as part of the external dimension of the European Green Deal the EU aims to avoid further carbon lock-ins, strengthen the ability of countries like Kenya to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and boost the EU’s international influence and visibility. This policy brief enumerates opportunities and offers recommendations for the evolution of EU-Kenya relations in the field of renewable energy.
Topic:: European Union, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, and Europe

54. The West’s struggle in Sudan: Standing with the people while being stuck with the coup regime

Author:: Anette Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Three years after the historic ousting of the long-time dictator al-Bashir, Sudan’s revolution continues. The military coup of last October has effectively ended Sudan’s post-Bashir transition to democracy but has fanned the flames of the Sudanese people’s struggle for freedom, peace, and justice. Protesters from Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement continue to risk their lives by taking to the streets demanding the end of military rule and the transfer of power to a civilian government. The international community, however, has spent the last eight months trying to restore a power-sharing government whose very viability had become untenable. Meanwhile, conniving with Islamist elements of the former al-Bashir regime, the coup alliance is cementing its stranglehold over the state. The historic opportunity for genuine democratic transition risks being lost. This policy brief argues that, by holding on to a transition that has ceased to exist, Western governments have helped consolidate the coup. To counter that course Western donor governments are well advised to 1) increase economic and diplomatic pressure on the coup regime, 2) strengthen the civil society that opposes the coup, and 3) safeguard aid against diversion and political manipulation.
Topic:: Democratization, Coup, Revolution, Transition, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

55. The Case for Inclusive Agricultural Development

Author:: Benjamin Allen, Jacqueline Ashby, John Coonrod, and Wawira Njiru
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:: Amid shifts towards inclusive agricultural development, the Center for Global Food and Agriculture offers policy recommendations for further US government action. Reflecting both the development consensus and the challenges of transformational reform, USAID Administrator Samantha Power announced an ambitious new focus on inclusive development for the agency in 2021. Her announcement followed the publication of a draft policy on local capacity development, which provides a framework for shifting overall organizational approaches to development. The policy helps establish an agencywide understanding of what locally led development means and a unified system for building on local strengths to achieve local goals. Nevertheless, there are substantial and legitimate reasons why inclusive development assistance remains elusive. Recent research from the Brookings Institution provides an excellent summary of the legal and regulatory impediments, including budgetary rigidity, risk mitigation, and the limits of local organizational capacity.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Food, and International Development
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

56. Women and Peacebuilding in Africa: Some Policy Recommendations

Author:: Anna Chitando
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: There is an increasing acknowledgment of the important role played by women in peacebuilding worldwide. The UN Security Council Resolution (UNSC) 1325 calls for the full involvement of women in all efforts towards the maintenance of and support for peace and security.1 Other successive UNSC resolutions linked to the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) framework such as 1820, 1888, 1889, 1960, 2106, 2122, and 2242 have underscored the role of women in peacebuilding. However, Machakanja observes that “women’s participation in peace and security in Africa remains more symbolic than substantive, and their capacity to influence and engage in peace negotiations is often resisted by local cultural norms and patriarchal hierarchies.”2 Although women contribute significantly to peacebuilding in Africa, their efforts are often diminished, or “invisible.” This is predominantly a result of the patriarchal bias which tends to exclude women from political activities and official peace negotiations.3
Topic:: Security, Women, Peacebuilding, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa

57. How Violent Conflicts Impact Women in Oil-Producing Niger Delta Communities: A Policy Perspective

Author:: Onyinyechukwu Durueke
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This policy brief focuses on how women are affected by violent conflicts in the oilproducing Niger Delta region of Nigeria, including the coping mechanisms women victims adopt in conflict-affected communities. It draws on the findings of fieldbased research on the experiences of women in the aftermath of the military invasions of Odi1 and Gbaramatu,2 the leadership tussle in Rumuekpe,3 communal/ intra-ethnic conflict in K-Dere and B-Dere,4 communal conflict with a multinational oil corporation in Evwreni,5 and electoral violence in Imiringi. This brief also makes recommendations for addressing gender-based violence in the region.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Women, Violence, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa and Niger

58. Mitigating Post-Apartheid Xenophobic Violence Through Language

Author:: Chimaobi Onwukwe
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This policy brief draws on field-based research on multilingual practices and identity navigation among Nigerian Igbo migrants, their motivations for their language use/choices and how these relate to evading xenophobic violence in South Africa. It also makes recommendations for mitigating the effects of xenophobic violence.
Topic:: Apartheid, Discrimination, Violence, Language, and Migrants
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

59. Health of nations: How Europe can fight future pandemics

Author:: Anthony Dworkin
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: As the crisis phase of covid-19 recedes, there is a chance to improve international cooperation on global health – but also a danger that competing reform proposals will lead to inaction. The EU can best support reform of pandemic preparedness and response if it takes account of the concerns of different global powers. The union should combine a push for reform of and increased funding for the WHO with support for a new fund for health emergencies, overseen by a representative group of countries. The EU should promote a new global compact on health, matching countries’ commitment to surveillance and reporting of pathogens with support for stronger healthcare systems and greater equity in the allocation of countermeasures. The EU-Africa relationship offers a chance to pioneer such an approach, but the EU will need to go further in this than it has so far. The EU should promote African vaccine manufacturing, including by pressing European pharmaceutical companies to transfer knowledge and technology to Africa.
Topic:: Health, European Union, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, and United States of America

60. Shared fortunes: Why Britain, the European Union, and Africa need one another

Author:: Nicholas Westcott
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Britain and Africa are deeply connected through their history and people as much as through trade, investment, aid, and culture. They can both benefit greatly from this relationship – especially in areas where their interests converge, including economic development, security, education, and climate. But political forces on both sides could push them apart – even as, increasingly, Britain needs Africa more than Africa needs Britain. The British government and the EU need to understand the relationship in its geostrategic context – the influence of China, Russia, Gulf states, and others affects African countries’ views on their place in the world. A closer and more responsive relationship between Britain, Africa, and the EU would have significant benefits for all sides – partly because each is weaker individually than they are together, and because Britain still has strengths that are most useful in cooperation with others. But this will only be possible if the British government significantly changes its approach to Europe as well as to Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, United Kingdom, and Europe

61. Back to barracks: Building democracy after the military coup in Sudan

Author:: Amgad Fareid Eltayeb
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The protest movement that toppled dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 promised a first in post-independence Sudan: democratic government. Although a historic opportunity for Sudan, real democracy threatened Sudanese political and military elites. Regimes formed through agreement between these elites constitute the one constant throughout Sudan’s post-independence period. The gap between the political elites and the protest movement helped the military coup in 2021 entrench their position. Violence, repression, and unrest are widespread – and splits in the broader military camp threaten to spill over into civil war. These splits also precipitate Sudan being drawn into regional conflicts such as in Ethiopia and Chad. The international community and European states have failed to find a viable political pathway to end the coup because they are too focused on working with elites. They need to grasp that both military and civilian elites are responsible for failing to open politics to the people of Sudan. The EU and member states should support pro-democracy actors in Sudan and press for a new political pathway centred on them.
Topic:: Military Affairs, European Union, Democracy, and Coup
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

62. Gateway to growth: How the European Green Deal can strengthen Africa’s and Europe’s economies

Author:: Michaël Tanchum
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: In much of Africa, growth is being driven by “green energy innovation ecosystems”, which combine telecoms, digital platforms, solar power, and the internet of things. European companies and states risk losing out on business opportunities and political influence if they fail to integrate their services and infrastructure into these emerging ecosystems. China and other economic and geopolitical rivals will become African states’ main partner if Europeans stand aside from this key growth trajectory. The EU can: assist on offering world-class data regulation and supporting the construction of data centres; support the construction of other infrastructure, such as for 5G; and help roll out off-grid solar power generation and electric vehicle manufacturing. Europeans should work in joint ventures with African firms as this model is proven to create value added that China’s investments often fail to produce. The EU should merge its nascent Global Gateway international connectivity programme with the European Green Deal. The objectives of both require similar levels of investment in African infrastructure and they can unlock the investment potential of European public-private partnerships.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Economy, Innovation, and Green Deal
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa

63. Laying Foundations for Civic Engagement and Government Accountability in Guinea (2011-2020)

Author:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: When President Alpha Condé took office after Guinea’s first democratic election in 2010, he promised to reform the country’s mining sector. Following decades of sector mismanagement and corruption, Guinea introduced a new mining code in 2011 (later amended in 2013) and, in 2012, the government committed to implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) Standard and reviewed 19 mining contracts signed by previous administrations. This reform effort precipitated a significant expansion of the industry: investments picked up and bauxite exports rose, and mining revenues grew. Despite progress, and because of the speed of mining expansion, communities in mining areas experienced increasingly negative impacts from the industry. Their interests went unaddressed; the government had been slow to implement key regulations aimed at protecting them. As a result, 2016 saw uprisings in key bauxite-producing areas. In addition, civil society engagement on extractive issues was weak and fragmented; citizens, activists and journalists lacked crucial information and were ill-equipped to engage on key governance issues.
Topic:: Government, Natural Resources, Governance, Accountability, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa and Guinea

64. Resource-Backed Loans in Ghana: Risks, Opportunities and Lessons

Author:: Denis Gyeyir
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Developing countries have trouble financing development mainly due to limited access to capital markets, high cost of borrowing, slow growth, or a mix of these. Countries with natural resource endowments have attempted in the last few decades to leverage these endowments to surmount those challenges. Many of their development efforts focus on closing huge infrastructure gaps. Ghana is a producer of cocoa, minerals, oil and gas—assets that have increasingly featured in the government’s infrastructure financing plans. Ghana’s infrastructure financing totaled USD 23 billion between 2007 and 2020, and annual infrastructure investment will need to reach $9.3 billion by 2030 (13.9 percent of 2019 GDP). Official development funding and private sector financing have been inadequate to meet these infrastructure needs. As a result, the Ghana Infrastructure Plan identifies Chinese infrastructural funding as a source to fill the gap. Ghana’s infrastructure financing has in part relied on leveraging its natural resources. Through resource-backed loans (RBLs), governments (directly or through state-owned companies) borrow funds and repay the loans in physical natural resources or with money from resource-related future income streams. Ghana has entered into three such RBL deals, totaling more than $5 billion, in the last two decades; all three involve Chinese state-owned enterprises as lenders.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Resource-Backed Loans, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

65. NRGI Impact: Guinean Communities Benefit from Mining Revenues and Civil Society Capacity Building

Author:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Like many resource-rich low-income countries, Guinea faces challenges in leveraging its natural resource wealth for sustainable development. Despite being the world’s second largest bauxite producer and rich in iron ore, gold and diamonds, Guinea has so far delivered only limited benefits from mining to its citizens, more than half of whom live in poverty. Guinea introduced sector-wide reforms following democratization in 2010 and is successfully implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). However, social unrest, political instability, and the impacts of the Ebola crisis and coronavirus pandemic have slowed the country’s progress toward ensuring that mining income helps improve citizens’ quality of life.
Topic:: Civil Society, Natural Resources, Mining, Revenue Management, and Revenue Sharing
Political Geography:: Africa and Guinea

66. Social Protection Reforms in the MENA Region: Possibilities and Challenges

Author:: Abdalhadi Alijla
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The COVID-19 crisis that hit the world in 2020 revealed a huge gap in access to public services, equality and government responsiveness to the consequences of the pandemic. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the COVID-19 crisis showed the inadequacy of the public institutions and their abilities to protect the poor, and ensure that populations’ needs are met, especially informal workers, women, children and the elderly. The social protection systems in the MENA countries are relatively weak, facing challenges or disfunctions through many ad-hoc programmes, making it difficult to respond to the COVID-19 crisis. This is particularly observed in countries facing a pre- COVID-19 economic crisis, such as Lebanon. There is clear evidence that social protection systems have a positive impact on the lives of the population in times of crisis. They improve access to health and education, and increase economic security. Social protection systems work during times of crisis and times of stability, but they are strategic tools that show that states have the capacity to design and deploy policy tools to protect people. In divided societies, inequalities are usually wider and, therefore, a comprehensive social protection system with a high rate of coverage is needed. In this Policy Study, we present four chapters, examining the state-of-the-art of social protection systems in the MENA region, challenges, and potential opportunities that government, local non-governmental organizations (NGOs), international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) and the European Union (EU) could take to assist in establishing comprehensive social protection systems. The COVID-19 crisis is an opportunity to learn and identify where the gaps are and what needs to be done by formal and informal institutions in the MENA region to reform and re-engineer their social protection systems with help from the EU and its institutions. COVID-19 arrived in the MENA region during an economic crisis in Lebanon, Jordan and Tunisia, marked by huge inequalities, vulnerabilities with increasing poverty and low trust in governments and their performance. Lockdown, closure and physical distancing have also led to loss of jobs and income for millions of people, mainly informal workers, and businesses. The vulnerable groups who are already living in economic distress, such as informal workers, youth, women and the elderly, are the most affected parts of the population. They are the most vulnerable to loss of income and unemployment. This study highlights that MENA states lack comprehensive and effective social protection systems. In many MENA countries, ad-hoc programmes substitute a comprehensive social protection system. The study examines the rural-urban and socioeconomic group gaps in accessing services, such as health and education, and economic opportunities. It shows that the historic gap between urban-rural and socioeconomic groups' ability to access the same services and opportunities compared to other groups affected the ability of those groups to cope with the pandemic, exposing them to more vulnerability. The study examines the policy response of the MENA governments to the pandemic, namely in Lebanon, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco – four countries that have been particularly challenged by COVID-19. It identifies several gaps and op- portunities to develop the social protection system. The study examines cash- based programmes, access to public health, informal workers, women’s protection, digitalisation of social protection systems, and education, to some extent. It focuses on youth, women, the elderly, disabled persons and children as the most vulnerable groups in the region. It identifies that coordination between formal in- stitutions and INGOs needs to be formalised, informal workers need to be included in the social protection system, women and the elderly should be prioritised, and informal social protection mechanisms could be supported through livelihood activities, but is not seen as a major part of any social protection mechanism. It finally highlights the need for digitalisation of reformed social protection systems or strategies.
Topic:: Governance, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

67. Times they are A-changin’: Africa at the Centre Stage of the new (II) Liberal World Order

Author:: Nina Wilen
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Amid a renewed Global Power competition, Africa’s abundance of natural resources, its exponential demographic development, and the current expansion of militant Islamist groups in the region, increases its strategic importance and pushes the continent to the center stage of international relations. This brief explores Africa’s position in this changing global context and examines major actors’ presence in, and stance towards, Africa on the global arena. It does this while arguing that as the competition for influence and access to resources in Africa is intensified, Western actors need to become clearer about their interests, avoid ill-perceived imposition of conditionalities – unless they are willing to risk access and follow them through – and adopt a case-by case approach to states on a continent as diverse as Africa.
Topic:: Globalization, International Cooperation, Liberal Order, and World System
Political Geography:: Africa

68. Al-Shabab in Mozambique: Taking Stock of an Insurgency Under Cover

Author:: Tom Van Rentergem
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Since the first attack in October 2017, Mozambique has been confronted with an extremist insurgency called Ansar Al-Sunna Wa Jamma (ASWJ), also known as Al-Shabab (not to be confused with Al-Shabab in Somalia). The alleged Jihadists targeted the Mozambican coastline and have carried out indiscriminate attacks in the Northern province of Cabo Delgado, with the capture of coastal towns Mocimboa Da Praia in 2020 and Palma in 2021 being important markers for the insurgents. The intense five-year conflict has resulted in 4,000 people dead and 800,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDP), roughly half of the province. The identity of the insurgents has become subject for debate among policy makers and researchers, raising questions about whether the group is primarily a local insurgency or whether there are tangible links to Jihadism in other areas of Africa and the Middle East.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

69. Protecting Civilians From Those Who Should Protect Them

Author:: Delina Goxho
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: As violent attacks targeting civilians in the Sahel region of West Africa are mounting, allegations of abuses perpetrated by Sahelian armed forces share the news with attacks committed by non-state armed groups. This brief analyses the main shortcomings within the governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger with regard to ensuring meaningful Protection of Civilians (PoC) from their own security and defence forces. It finds that formal, structural measures to address state security forces’ abuse of civilians is lacking in all three states, although some promising initiatives to build trust between security forces and civilians have been held on a local level. On a regional level, the OHCHR-mandated Human Rights Compliance Framework, which has partially been adopted by regional force Force Conjointe – G5 Sahel (FC-G5S), represents an example of a mechanism that could ensure better protection of civilians both for the region, and on a national level. However, the advent of Russian paramilitary group Wagner in Mali and the most recent massacre of civilians in Moura is challenging all optimistic forecasting.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Conflict, and Civilians
Political Geography:: Africa

70. Who’s Been Making “African Solutions”? Mapping Membership Patterns in the African Union’s Peace and Security Council

Author:: Nina Wilen and Paul D. Williams
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This year marks the 20th anniversary since the establishment of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union, the AU’s principal decision-making body for promoting peace, security, and stability in Africa. This brief examines the patterns and trends that have emerged during the past two decades of PSC elections and finds that African governments persistently elected autocrats and states experiencing violent conflict to serve on the PSC, thus undermining the AU’s principles. This pattern risks skewing PSC decision-making in unhelpful ways, undermining effective crisis management, and making it difficult to uphold the AU’s stated norms and principles.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Peace, and Africa Union
Political Geography:: Africa

71. France in the Eastern Mediterranean and the MENA region’s geopolitical competition: French grandeur or European sovereignty?

Author:: Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The global rivalry between the US and China, as well as geopolitical competition and instability in the EU’s southern neighbourhood, are perceived by France as urgent matters requiring stronger EU foreign policy, conceptualized as European sovereignty. The French foreign policy elite are still largely committed to the idea of France’s exceptional role in the world, and to the extent that the EU as a whole fails to live up to the tasks presumed by France, continue their attempts at forging coalitions of the willing. France has in recent years built a web of strategic partnerships, for example with Greece, the Republic of Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, through which it aims to govern the instability in the EU’s southern neighbourhood. The aim is also to deter regional adversaries such as Turkey, a strategy that needs to be re-evaluated due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. France often equates its national interests with those of the EU. While this can be seen to enhance European sovereignty, it also risks increasing the perception that the EU would be a participant in various Middle Eastern conflicts. This undermines the EU’s ability to function as an objective broker and anchor of norms.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, Foreign Interference, and Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, France, North Africa, Mediterranean, and MENA

72. Barriers to Effective Whistleblowing in Botswana: Lessons from the Construction Industry

Author:: Marumo Omotoye
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: Adopting Botswana’s construction industry as a case study, this Policy Brief examines key barriers to effective whistleblowing in Botswana. Data were drawn from 117 construction firms and interviews with regulators of this sector. Despite the enactment of the Whistleblowing Act 2016, the study finds the following key barriers to effective whistleblowing: (i) fear of retaliation or punishment, (ii) fear of job loss, (iii) absence of organisational whistleblowing policies, (iv) lack of incentive to report, (v) lack of education on whistleblowing, and (vi) insufficient action and follow-up on disclosures by authorities. From a policy perspective, there is a need to strengthen the existing legal protection offered to whistleblowers, their families and associates to ensure they are not subject to harm, retaliation or victimisation. There is also a need to increase levels of education and awareness on whistleblowing in general, and the Whistleblowing Act 2016 in particular.
Topic:: Corruption, Regulation, Whistle Blowing, and Construction
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

73. ABCs of the IFIs: The African Development Fund’s 16th Replenishment

Author:: Jocilyn Estes and Erin Collinson
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Many African countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, continue to grapple with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic while simultaneously confronting the challenges posed by slowing global growth, private capital outflows, debt distress, and the impacts of climate change. An estimated 55 million people on the continent have been pushed into extreme poverty since the onset of the pandemic. This devastating trend has been exacerbated by the ripple effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—supply chain disruptions, tightening fiscal space, and growing pressure on the cost of food, fuel, and fertilizer. International financial support for the continent has fallen woefully short of levels required to prevent the current crisis from derailing long-term development. The African Development Bank (AfDB) is the largest regional multilateral development finance institution on the continent. It provides critical financial support to countries across the region, including investment in vital infrastructure projects. The African Development Fund (AfDF) is the Bank’s concessional window, providing financing in the form of grants and concessional loans to resource-constrained governments responding to the growing challenges on the continent, including gaps in critical infrastructure and rising debt burdens. Amid ongoing and overlapping global emergencies, the stakes for the AfDF’s upcoming replenishment could hardly be higher. The AfDF is making the case to donors—who will come together later this year for a final meeting of the AfDF’s 16th replenishment (AfDF-16)—that the Fund needs substantial new resources to continue to support African people, businesses, and governments and make up lost ground in the fight against poverty. An ambitious 16th replenishment—coupled with policy and governance reform commitments—presents an opportunity for donors, including the United States, to complement long-standing investments in regional growth and infrastructure, offer a sustainable alternative to non-concessional Chinese lending, and make headway on the long road to economic recovery from the pandemic and worsening food security crisis.
Topic:: Development, Investment, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

74. Recommendations for US-Africa Space Cooperation and Development

Author:: Rose Croshier
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: The United States, a leader in space exploration and innovation, has a unique opportunity to establish enduring diplomatic, commercial, and security ties with African nations through space cooperation—with the potential to yield substantial development benefits. The U.S. space sector is robust, an area of comparative strength vis-à-vis Europe, Russia, and China. By driving space cooperation, the U.S. can reinforce the rules-based order as articulated in international agreements like the Artemis Accords. Expanded space capabilities can also support the achievement of several of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which range from improving data-driven governance to closing the global digital gap. U.S. policymakers have an opportunity to implement a collaborative approach with emerging African space actors both to grow a peaceful and law-abiding community in space and to benefit from Africa's contributions to the global space ecosystem. Space capability can also serve a crucial infrastructure role, yielding similar benefits to “traditional” infrastructure—including facilitating access to 5G connectivity through low orbit satellites and addressing clean water and food security needs through remote sensing and satellite communications.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Space, and Territory
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

75. Strengthening Sahelian Counterinsurgency Strategy

Author:: Michael Shurkin
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Adapting Sahelian force structures to lighter, more mobile, and integrated units will better support the population-centric COIN practices needed to reverse the escalating trajectory of violent extremist attacks.
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Counterinsurgency, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

76. Egypt’s water policy after the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Author:: Sherif Mohy El Deen
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Egypt is one of the driest countries in the world. It is also the country that is most dependent on a single source of water: The Nile. The Nile River provides over 93% of Egypt’s water needs, according to Egyptian government documents. However, the water crisis discussion mainly focuses on the extent to which previous water agreements with other Nile Basin countries are binding, or on the truthfulness of the current news on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Hence, this discussion is not addressing the main issue, which is the extent to which operating the Dam would affect the annual water use per capita in Egypt at present, as well as in the near and distant future. The Renaissance Dam crisis is recent, as it began when Ethiopia unilaterally decided to build the Dam in a border region between Ethiopia and Sudan. However, it is a main factor that could exacerbate and deepen the problem of water scarcity in Egypt. Other factors affecting water use per capita in Egypt include exponential population growth and increasing climate change. This policy brief aims to shed light on the main causes and background of the water crisis in Egypt. It will briefly discuss some examples of recent or upcoming projects by the Egyptian government under the new Water Resources Management Strategy (2016-2050). Finally, the paper will highlight the importance of conducting comprehensive and constant feasibility and impact assessments of these projects. These assessments should focus not only on the water dimension, but also on the economic, social, environmental, cultural, and political dimensions. This paper also provides some recommendations and lessons learned from the “Jonglei Canal,” an Egyptian-Sudanese water megaproject that launched nearly five decades ago.
Topic:: Development, Water, Infrastructure, and Dams
Political Geography:: Africa and Egypt

77. Decentralization and Geographical Inequality in Egypt

Author:: Mohamed Abdel Hadi Shantir
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Egypt’s social policies suffer from serious challenges, especially at the spatial level. This is often referred to as the “geographical inequality” gap between the most privileged and less fortunate governorates, or the ones with limited resources. This is in addition to the disparity between different localities within the same governorate. These disparities are due to a highly centralized system of policy-making, resource management, and service distribution – which has been in place since 2014. The issues also include rising corruption rates, which often compromise any potential reforms. According to the 2020 Corruption Perceptions Index issued by Transparency International, Egypt fell by 11 places and ranked 117 among 180 countries, with a score of 33 out of 100 points.[i] Decentralization is considered a requirement that addresses geographical or spatial imbalances in the country, provided that the necessary standards for effective implementation are met. It is an important policy tool for achieving development and promoting democracy. It also helps citizens recognize whether the State is acting in their favor or in favor of monopolizing power and wealth. The effective and integrated implementation of decentralization contributes to increasing the efficiency of local utilities and public services, involving citizens in the management of their local affairs, training the administrative personnel required to implement the vision of local development and to ensure the optimal use of resources, while improving performance in local action. This directly leads to strengthening the quality of life and livelihoods at the local level, promoting a sense of national belonging, and increasing the level of trust between citizens and government.
Topic:: Inequality, Decentralization, Geography, and Equality
Political Geography:: Africa and Egypt

78. Policy Papers by Women of Color: Young Ambassadors Journal of Global Affairs

Author:: Shanel Wilson, Kyla Denwood, Mari Faines, Alonna Williams, and Mia Veal
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: The WCAPS Young Ambassadors Board presents to you the premiere version of the Young Ambassadors Journal of Global Affairs. The culmination of these five policy recommendations written by women of color covers a variety of issue areas that are relevant and researched and most importantly the passion areas for our members. These women are emerging experts and professionals in their fields of international development, national security, peace, and technology. Their contributions are representative of the areas of the world they want to improve and fortify the skills to do just that.
Topic:: Education, Foreign Exchange, Law Enforcement, Food Security, Internet, Police, Militarization, and Suburbanization
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, Nicaragua, North America, and United States of America

79. A strategy to future-proof Zambia’s mining industry

Author:: Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Zambia is in an opportune position to benefit from the growing demand for copper to support the global energy transition. Policymakers in President Hakainde Hichilema’s administration have an opportunity to build a resilient and high-performance Zambian economy to bring a true New Dawn. To realise this vision, Zambia must address key economic challenges such as the legacy effects of the previous instability of the mining regulatory system. Volatile changes have plagued the country until recently, with past governments changing mining taxes in response to the copper price. Resultantly, investment growth has diminished and the multiplier effect that would otherwise have been associated with mining has been foregone. Poor macroeconomic governance and mining growth retardation have also pushed Zambia’s national debt to unsustainable levels, as exports have been insufficient to fund debt repayment. The country is now seeking debt relief from its external creditors and has struck a deal with the International Monetary Fund. In this first of a two-part policy briefing series, we examine the key economic challenges associated with mining governance reform and provide recommendations that will help develop a resilient mining tax regime and a more streamlined regulatory environment. The second briefing will address the debt challenge. Considering the growing demand for copper to meet the global net-zero goal, and an impending global supply crunch, more copper will need to be produced and Zambia is in a prime position to do so. At the same time, Zambia has declining copper ore grades. Our primary recommendation, therefore, is that a profit-based Mineral Royalty Tax (MRT) framework be strongly considered. This will enable investment in the necessary capital and infrastructure needed to increase output and promote exploration. Though profit-based MRTs can be exploited by mining companies making claims of increased capital investment to increase outputs, when combined with the implementation of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)’s reporting standards, the risk of exploitation is reduced.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Economy, Tax Systems, Mining, and Industry
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

80. The legal and political implications of a judicial review of the Zondo Commission’s findings

Author:: Helen Acton
Publication Date:: 05-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Gwede Mantashe, the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, has threatened to judicially review the Zondo Commission’s (‘the Commission’) findings against him. This decision highlights legal and political weaknesses in South Africa’s democratic system. The law is unclear on whether the findings of a Commission of Inquiry (COI) could constitute administrative action reviewable in terms of the Promotion of Administrative Justice Act 3 of 2000 (PAJA). This was not sufficiently dealt with by the High Court the only time it previously faced a judicial review of a COI’s findings. Even if COI findings could constitute administrative action, it seems that the Commission’s findings and recommendations concerning Mantashe in particular are unlikely to be reviewable in terms of PAJA. The principle of legality would be his most viable option for a legal challenge, but on analysis it is unlikely Mantashe would succeed on this basis either. Moreover, challenging the findings of this Commission on legally dubious grounds underscores political weaknesses in the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party, and consequently the electoral system more generally. Not only does the proposed challenge by a senior party member in Cabinet undermine the ANC’s steadfast commitment to end entrenched corruption, but it also demonstrates that the party’s step-aside rule is too narrow. The rule does not impose political accountability on members implicated by COI findings unless they are criminally charged by the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA). This sets the bar too low for political accountability, which should not be equated with criminal liability. The ANC’s lenient stepaside rule, and its members’ use of legal technicalities to avoid political accountability, is dangerous in a proportional representation system with a one-party-dominant legislature. Voters elect a party in a closed list system, and so depend entirely on the ruling party to hold its members individually accountable for wrongdoing. The ANC needs to prove to the electorate that it takes this job seriously.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Mining, Judiciary, and Energy
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

81. Efforts to mitigate elections in SADC countries becoming Covid-19 spreaders

Author:: Craig Moffat
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Gwede Mantashe, the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, has threatened to judicially review the Zondo Commission’s (‘the Commission’) findings against him. This decision highlights legal and political weaknesses in South Africa’s democratic system. The law is unclear on whether the findings of a Commission of Inquiry (COI) could constitute administrative action reviewable in terms of the Promotion of Administrative Justice Act 3 of 2000 (PAJA). This was not sufficiently dealt with by the High Court the only time it previously faced a judicial review of a COI’s findings. Even if COI findings could constitute administrative action, it seems that the Commission’s findings and recommendations concerning Mantashe in particular are unlikely to be reviewable in terms of PAJA. The principle of legality would be his most viable option for a legal challenge, but on analysis it is unlikely Mantashe would succeed on this basis either. Moreover, challenging the findings of this Commission on legally dubious grounds underscores political weaknesses in the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party, and consequently the electoral system more generally. Not only does the proposed challenge by a senior party member in Cabinet undermine the ANC’s steadfast commitment to end entrenched corruption, but it also demonstrates that the party’s step-aside rule is too narrow. The rule does not impose political accountability on members implicated by COI findings unless they are criminally charged by the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA). This sets the bar too low for political accountability, which should not be equated with criminal liability. The ANC’s lenient stepaside rule, and its members’ use of legal technicalities to avoid political accountability, is dangerous in a proportional representation system with a one-party-dominant legislature. Voters elect a party in a closed list system, and so depend entirely on the ruling party to hold its members individually accountable for wrongdoing. The ANC needs to prove to the electorate that it takes this job seriously
Topic:: Elections, Crisis Management, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

82. Broad support for multiparty elections, little faith in electoral institutions: Uganda in comparative perspective

Author:: Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: In the run-up to Uganda’s 2021 election, in which President Yoweri Museveni defeated Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, aka Bobi Wine, to claim a sixth term, violence reached unprecedented levels. More than 50 people were killed as security forces broke up opposition party gatherings, and several opposition members were arbitrarily detained (Arinaitwe, 2021). Although Election Day, 14 January, was relatively peaceful, more than 17.5 million Ugandans experienced a multiday Internet blackout, making social media platforms and news websites inaccessible at a time when they were in high demand (BBC, 2021; Moffat & Bennett, 2021). Election observers from the East African Community (EAC) noted malfunctioning biometric voter-verification machines and delays in the delivery of voting materials, among other issues, but joined domestic observers from the Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda in labeling the election largely free and fair. The Electoral Commission (EC) ultimately declared Museveni the winner with 58% of the vote – a comfortable lead over Bobi Wine (35%) and his fellow challengers (Moffat & Bennett, 2021; Yiga, 2021). Wine initially filed a court challenge in which he complained of soldiers stuffing ballot boxes, casting ballots for people, and chasing voters away from polling stations, but he later withdrew the case (Muhumuza, 2021). Court challenges after elections are commonplace in Uganda; since the country’s adoption of the fourth constitution in 1995, the outcome of every presidential race except the 2011 poll has been contested in court. Yet the courts have never overturned the results, even when they have acknowledged irregularities (Atuhaire, 2021). Beyond Museveni’s victory, what are the implications of the 2021 election for a country that returned to multiparty competition just 15 years ago? Should Ugandans be enthusiastic about a strong opposition showing as a sign of a healthy democracy at work, or will the prospect of enduring National Resistance Movement rule lead to disillusionment with democracy and the institutions that are meant to safeguard it – the EC and the courts? This policy paper aims to place the events of the 2021 election in perspective by examining public opinion data from Uganda over the past two decades. Despite a decade-long slide in Ugandans’ satisfaction with democracy, this analysis supports previous findings that more and more citizens have become “committed democrats” and view multiparty elections as tools for holding non-performing leaders accountable (Isbell & Kibirige, 2017; Kakumba, 2020; Kibirige, 2018). However, this investigation also points to decreasing trust in institutions that are meant to enforce the most basic of democratic processes – free and fair elections. Importantly, this negative trend cuts across the partisan divide. The analysis also shows that EC performance – both in executing its technical tasks and in refereeing fairly between competing parties – plays a crucial role in citizens’ evaluations of election quality. While public debate about reforming the EC is not new (Kibirige, 2016), the events of the 2021 election may provide impetus for intensifying efforts to increase transparency and improve communication on the part of the commission in order to enhance citizens’ satisfaction with the electoral process.
Topic:: Elections, Party System, Multi Party System, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

83. Rising concern, falling performance: Health-sector challenges evident before and after onset of COVID-19 pandemic

Author:: Carolyn Logan and Tosin Salau
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: As Africa and the world begin to regroup now that the worst ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic appear to be past, it is an opportune time to take stock of the state of health care systems on the continent. The pandemic is not over – South Africa is just coming out of its fifth wave of infection (Al Jazeera, 2022), and there may be more to come (Landman, Irfan, & Resnick, 2022). In the meantime, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (2022) and national governments continue to scale up their vaccination campaigns. But the war in Ukraine and global economic deterioration have finally supplanted COVID-19 at the top of the news cycle. In the early stages of the pandemic, many assessments warned of the possibly extreme vulnerability of Africans to the pandemic based in part on the many challenges already facing health care systems across much of the continent (Mattes, Logan, Gyimah-Boadi, & Ellison, 2020). While the direst predictions did not come to pass in most countries – South Africa being a notable exception – the pandemic has highlighted gaps in health systems amid the recognition that the next global health crisis could hit harder if improvements and preparations are not made. Taking a longer-term view, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) also highlight the need to strengthen health systems (United Nations, 2018). SDG#3 focuses on good health and well-being. But Afrobarometer’s SDG Scorecards, based on our most recent data from 34 countries surveyed in Round 8 (2019/2021), show that from the perspective of citizens, only a handful of countries have been making significant progress toward achieving this SDG (Afrobarometer, 2021). Instead, a growing number of Africans report going without medical care, and the share who cite health as one of their country’s most important problems is also on the rise. Even among those who do get care, increasing proportions report finding it difficult, and having to pay bribes, to obtain the medical services they need. Not surprisingly, citizens are also increasingly critical of their governments’ performance in this sector: For the first time in two decades of Afrobarometer polling, a majority of respondents say their governments are performing badly on improving basic health services. Moreover, the evidence suggests that the challenges wrought by the pandemic were not the cause of these increasingly negative reviews: The downward trends were already under way before COVID-19 entered the picture, and in fact, in some cases the trends appear to be somewhat less negative since the onset of the pandemic.
Topic:: Health, Inequality, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

84. Unresponsive and corrupt? Ugandan MPs hold key to how citizens perceive them

Author:: Matthias Krönke and Ronald Makanga Kakumba
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Uganda’s legislature is made up of 556 members of Parliament (MPs) who are meant to represent and serve their constituents and oversee the government’s actions. Since President Yoweri Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) party came to power in 1986 and appointed all members of Parliament, the country’s legislature has changed in several important ways (Kasfir & Twebaze, 2009). First, today all MPs are either directly elected via a first-past-the-post system or indirectly elected via special electoral colleges. Second, the number of parliamentarians has almost doubled over 25 years, from 295 in the 6th Parliament (1996-2001) to 556 in the current 11th Parliament (Inter-Parliamentary Union, 1996; Parliament of Uganda, 2022).1 This drastic increase can be attributed to the continued creation of new constituencies and the allocation of parliamentary seats for special-interest groups. Proponents of this development say it reflects citizens’ demands, but critics describe it as part of a political strategy to protect and grow the ruling party’s seat share in Parliament by increasing the number of constituencies in NRM strongholds (Nakatudde, 2020; Tumushabe & Gariyo, 2009). This debate has now entered a new phase with the recent ruling by the country’s Constitutional Court that Parliament and the Electoral Commission violated articles 51 and 63 of the Constitution by creating new constituencies that do not meet the population quota, based on data from the 2002 and 2014 census counts. The upshot of this ruling are proposals to downsize Uganda’s Parliament and redraw constituency boundaries (Barigaba, 2022). Third, the operating costs of the growing Parliament (MP and staff salaries, allowances, etc.) have increased drastically over the past two decades. Today Ugandan MPs’ salaries (35 million Uganda shillings, or about USD 9,700, per month) surpass those of most MPs elsewhere in Africa and in the European Union (BusinessTech, 2017; Olukya, 2021; Tumushabe & Gariyo, 2009). The cost of running Uganda’s 11th Parliament was expected to increase by more than 50 billion Ugandan shillings (USD 14.1 million), a substantial increase compared to the previous Parliament (Mufumba, 2021). Fourth, the share of MPs who return to Parliament after their first term in office continues to decrease. While about 50% of MPs did not return for a second term in the 6th (1996-2001) and 7th (2001-2006) Parliaments, this rate has increased to 53% (2006-2011), 55% (2011-2016), and 58% (2016-2021) in subsequent Parliaments. Most recently, of the 457 MPs in the 10th Parliament, 319 were not voted back to the 11th Parliament (2021-2026), while 31 did not contest or chose to run for other offices, and only 107 MPs returned (Kasfir & Twebaze, 2009; Forum for Women in Democracy, 2016; Independent, 2021). How do these changes affect 1) how citizens relate to their elected representatives and 2) how MPs address the needs of ordinary citizens? More broadly, are citizens being served by their MPs? To answer these questions, this policy paper begins by clarifying the foundations of the citizen-MP relationship and outlining the four key roles that MPs are generally expected to fulfil. The subsequent sections assess their performance in these roles against citizen expectations and other indicators. We find that Ugandans are becoming increasingly aware of their role in holding their MPs accountable. Most citizens are dissatisfied with how their MPs are doing their jobs, perceive them as corrupt, and say MPs don’t listen to constituents’ concerns. Residents of the Central region and Kampala are particularly critical of their MPs’ performance, probably due at least in part to high constituent-to-MP ratios in those areas. Citizens’ assessments of MP performance are associated with MPs’ perceived responsiveness and corruption as well as whether citizens have had contact with their MPs. In contrast, citizens’ demographic characteristics and views about democracy do not seem to drive their views of their elected representatives. There are two clear policy implications of these findings. First, at the institutional level, it is important to even out the citizen-to-MP ratios across the country. This is in line with the recent constitutional court ruling to base the creation of constituencies on census data. The second policy implication of our findings is that MPs have it in their own hands to change how citizens view their performance by improving on how they engage with them.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

85. Profile and determinants of lived poverty in Benin

Author:: Romaric Samson and Richard Houessou
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, launched in 2015, outlines global aspirations and priorities through the end of this decade. Prominently, the first two Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for ending poverty “in all its forms everywhere” and for “zero hunger” (United Nations, 2021a). The proportion of the world’s population living in extreme poverty decreased from 36% in 1990 to 16% in 2010 and to 10% in 2015, but the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have reversed this trend (Sumner, Hoy, & Ortiz-Juarez, 2020). Benin has had one of the fastest-growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years (Adegoke, 2019), with per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging 3.6% between 2017 and 2019 (World Bank, 2020). But the most recent household survey led by the Institut National de la Statistique et de l’Analyse Economique (2018) estimated that 38.5% of citizens still live in poverty. Are GDP gains translating into better lives for ordinary Beninese? According to Afrobarometer survey findings, “lived poverty” – the experience of going without basic life necessities – has worsened significantly over the past decade in Benin. More than three out of four Beninese face moderate or high levels of lived poverty. Many of these citizens continue to have limited access to the electricity grid, water and sanitation services, and other essential development infrastructure. Most importantly, our analysis shows they often lack the education and employment needed to break the poverty cycle.
Topic:: Education, Poverty, Infrastructure, Inequality, and Job Creation
Political Geography:: Africa and Benin

86. The Emergence of African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement and Lessons from the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement

Author:: Samuel Igbatayo
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: Africa’s regional integration agenda arrived at a cross roads in 2019, with the adoption of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. The AfCFTA framework came into force on 30th May, 2019, with its ratification by The Gambia, which brought the total number of African Union (AU) member state ratifications to twenty-two, the minimum threshold for AfCFTA implementation (Baker McKenzie 2019). As of May; 2022, forty-three of the 55 African countries have ratified the AfCFTA agreement (African Union 2018). The 12th Extraordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union in Niamey on 7th July; 2019, witnessed the launching of AfCFTA’s operational phase, which is governed by five instruments, namely: the rules of origin, the online negotiating forum, the monitoring and elimination of non-tariff barriers; a digital payment system and the African Trade Observatory. In addition, the beginning of trade under the terms of the agreement was set for July 1, 2020 (TRALAC 2020). A free trade agreement (FTA) can be aptly described as a pact between two or more countries on areas in which they agree to lift most or all tariffs, and other barriers to imports and exports among them (Barone 2019). Under a free trade framework, goods and services can be traded across international borders, with little or no government tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or prohibitions to inhibit their exchange. The theory of free trade Agreements is rooted in classical economics, dating back to the era of Adam Smith. During this period, David Ricardo (1772-1823), a British political economist, was acknowledged with pioneering thoughts on free trade as a key instrument for wealth accumulation. The evolution of preferential trade agreements is traceable to the rise of European countries after World War II, with the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951, a development that eventually culminated in the creation of the European Union (EU) (Johnston 2019). Spurred by the success of regional bodies with free trade agreements and Africa’s poor trading performance; estimated at a paltry 3% of annual global trade, the African Union embarked upon the creation of the AfCFTA agreement as a tool for Intra-Africa trade and regional integration.
Topic:: Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Regional Integration, and Free Trade
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia-Pacific

87. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Munsu Kang
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: This study investigates the climate change impacts on agriculture and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). SSA is the most vulnerable region responding to the weather shocks such as drought and flood. Furthermore, more than half of population in SSA are engaged in agricultural production that is highly affected by the rainfall pattern and temperature increases. For this reason, disruption of agriculture caused by the weather shock also can increase the probability of conflict such as demonstration and riot. This study focuses on 43 SSA countries after excluded small islands. Using scenario analysis, we find that temperature increases rather than precipitation might affect maize and sorghum production negatively while it is unclear for the rice production. We also find that increases in average temperature and maximum temperature might increase the probability of conflicts even if the effects of climate on riot and demonstration are U-shape pattern while it is reverse U-shape for battle and civilian conflicts.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

88. Finding a Path through Quagmire

Author:: Will Brown
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: n the Central Sahelian nations of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, a decade of violent instability has left 18 million individuals in need of humanitarian assistance. Climate change, underdevelopment, ethnic violence, corruption, and state decay have left civilians in need of peacebuilding, humanitarian, and development support. The deterioration of security conditions, however, has limited civilian access to essential services and impacted humanitarian response capabilities. Donors have promoted the “triple nexus” approach aimed at enhancing the coordination and effectiveness of humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding interventions. Yet, implementation in the Sahel has been hamstrung by a lack of common understanding among partners and a disconnect between the interests and operations of humanitarian and security actors. For the triple nexus approach to effectively improve conditions in the Sahel, humanitarian, development, and security partners must improve collaboration. Actors in the region should develop operational frameworks that ensure they enhance complementary objectives.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Intervention, Humanitarian Crisis, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

89. Building downstream capacity for critical minerals in Africa: Challenges and opportunities

Author:: Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Demand for critical minerals—bauxite, cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, and other minerals that underpin solar, wind, geothermal, and other forms of renewable energy and electric vehicles—is already booming and is projected to continue to grow at a rapid pace. Africa’s mineral-rich developing economies could benefit greatly from this increase in demand. Many African economies have vast critical mineral reserves, and their nascent industrial sectors imply vast export potential. These countries could increase the benefits they reap from these minerals by building downstream capacity in processing—the steps that turn mined ore (bauxite, iron ore) into refined intermediate goods (aluminum, steel). To do so, however, they need to improve their infrastructure, investment climate, and governance and learn to navigate an increasingly complicated geopolitical environment. Hendrix assesses the challenges facing four critical mineral–rich developing African economies: Guinea (bauxite); the Democratic Republic of Congo (cobalt); Madagascar (graphite and nickel); and Mozambique (graphite). The solutions he offers include (a) embracing hydropower potential—which is vast in these countries—while paying attention to social costs and distributive impacts, (b) exempting refinery-related capital goods and industrial inputs from import duties, (c) locating downstream capacity in areas of relative stability, and (d) leveraging external policy anchors to provide policy stability and transparency.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Economy, Supply Chains, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

90. Hackers, Hoodies, and Helmets: Technology and the changing face of Russian private military contractors

Author:: Emma Schroeder, Gavin Wilde, Justin Sherman, and Trey Herr
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The first time Russia invaded Ukraine in the twenty-first century, the Wagner Group was born. The now widely profiled private military company (PMC) played an important role in exercising Russian national power over the Crimea and portions of the Donbas—while giving Moscow a semblance of plausible deniability. In the near decade since, the Russian PMC sector has grown considerably, and is active in more than a dozen countries around the world. PMCs are paramilitary organizations established and run as private companies—though they often operate in contract with one or more states. They are profit-motivated, expeditionary groups that make a business of the conduct of war.1 PMCs are in no way a uniquely Russian phenomenon, yet the expanding footprint of Russian PMCs and their links to state interests call for a particularly Russian-focused analysis of the industry. The growth of these firms and their direct links to the Kremlin’s oligarch network as well as Moscow’s foreign media, industrial, and cyber activities present a challenge to the United States and its allies as they seek to counter Russian malicious activities abroad. As signals intelligence and offensive cyber capabilities, drones and counter-drone systems, and encrypted communications become more accessible, these technologies will prove ever more decisive to both battlefield outcomes and statecraft. More exhaustive research on these issues is necessary. The ongoing conflict resulting from Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine in this young century seems likely to shape the conduct of Russian foreign policy and security behavior for years to come—and these firms will play a part. The activities of these PMCs include high-intensity combat operations, as evidenced in Syria in 2018 and Ukraine in 2022, and a mix of population control, escort and close protection, and local direct-action activities, as seen in Libya, Mali, and elsewhere.2 Given the sourcing and dependence of Russian PMCs on Russian military service personnel and no small influence of Russian doctrine, the questions to reasonably ask include: How do changes in the Russian conduct of war and adoption of new technologies influence these PMCs? Moreover, how might these technological changes influence the role these PMCs play in Russian strategic goals and activity abroad?
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Wagner Group, Russia-Ukraine War, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, and Africa

91. How China Came to Dominate the Global EV Lithium-ion Battery Value Chain: Lessons and Opportunities for Africa

Author:: Xieshu Wang
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: The electrification of vehicles is accelerating and the global automotive industry is under full transformation. China has become an indispensable partner for EV makers as the only country that has succeeded in building a complete and competitive industry value chain of EV lithium-ion batteries. Top-down government-led policymaking has been an important driver; bottom-up firm-level vertical integration strategy and investments have effectively created a closedloop supply chain. Africa is still at an early stage in this mobility transition. But with its rich deposits of minerals and potential markets, it can become a key player in the global EV value chain, if a favourable ecosystem for the fast uptake of EV and related green businesses could be developed in time.
Topic:: Industry, Global Value Chains, Lithium, Automotive Industry, Batteries, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:: Africa and China

92. The UN Environmental and Climate Adviser in Somalia

Author:: Jenna Russo
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) was among the first special political missions to receive climate-related language in its mandate, reflecting Somalia’s acute vulnerability to the impact of climate change. In 2020, UNSOM also became the first mission to have an environmental and climate adviser deployed to help implement this mandate. The adviser’s work is structured around three pillars: Mainstreaming the environment and climate throughout the mission’s mandated areas of work; Coordinating UN agencies, government actors, and NGOs working on climate across the humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding sectors; and Supporting the government in developing, funding, and coordinating its climate action plans and policies. This issue brief reviews the role of the environmental and climate adviser in Somalia, including their areas of work, successes, challenges, and opportunities for replication in other mission settings. Strong buy-in from both mission leaders and national and regional counterparts has facilitated the adviser’s ability to help the mission implement its mandate relating to climate change, environmental degradation, and other ecological challenges. Furthermore, the adviser has successfully helped to coordinate climate-related work, incorporate strategic analyses into climate-related risk assessments and responses, and liaise with local actors. The adviser has also faced challenges, including the broad scope of work tasked to a single person and the unique set of skills required, as well as the political contention surrounding the concept of climate security. The brief concludes by looking ahead to the growth of environmental and climate advisers in other UN missions and the importance of understanding and addressing interlinkages among climate, peace, and security as the impacts of climate change accelerate.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, Peacekeeping, and UNSOM
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

93. Disinformation against UN Peacekeeping Operations

Author:: Albert Trithart
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Over the past few years, a growing barrage of disinformation has targeted UN peacekeeping operations, particularly the missions in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), Mali (MINUSMA), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). This includes false allegations that UN peacekeepers are trafficking weapons to armed groups, supporting terrorists, and exploiting natural resources. This disinformation makes it harder for peacekeeping operations to implement their mandates and has put the safety of peacekeepers at risk. This paper provides an overview of the recent rise in disinformation against MINUSCA, MINUSMA, and MONUSCO. It also examines how these three peacekeeping operations have been addressing disinformation and the challenges they have faced. While these initial efforts have tended to focus on strategic communications, disinformation is not only a strategic communications issue; it affects all mission components, and effectively tackling it requires situating it in the broader political context and understanding its drivers. This paper offers the following questions the UN Department of Peace Operations and individual missions could consider as they develop policies, guidelines, structures, and activities to address disinformation: How can missions develop a cross-cutting, strategic approach to disinformation? Disinformation is more than a technical or tactical issue; it is a political and strategic issue that requires the proactive attention of mission leaders. How can missions better monitor and analyze disinformation both online and offline? Monitoring disinformation is critical not only so missions can address it; tracking rumors also has intrinsic value by helping missions better listen to and understand the sentiments of local populations. How can missions respond to disinformation more quickly? For many UN personnel, the slowness of the UN response is one of the biggest challenges inhibiting their efforts to address disinformation. How can missions reshape anti-UN narratives? Anti-UN disinformation is woven into a broader anti-UN (and anticolonial) narrative that is grounded in both great-power politics and legitimate public grievances. In countering individual falsehoods, missions should consider whether and how they could also respond to this broader narrative. How can missions contribute to a healthier information environment? From the perspective of civil society, the most important shift the UN can make would be to focus more on supporting local journalists. Does the scale of the problem call for a more decisive shift in approach? Any shift in approach should be premised on the principle that under no circumstances should missions respond to disinformation with disinformation of their own.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Central African Republic

94. Advancing Youth Inclusion and Violence Prevention through Public Support Programmes

Author:: Jasmina Brankovic
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: State-run socio-economic and livelihood support programmes have been shown to increase the social inclusion of young people and thereby contribute to the prevention of violence involving youth. This practice brief outlines strategies for civil society practitioners to advocate for these public programmes, improve their implementation and amplify their positive effects, based on experiences in Southern and East Africa.
Topic:: Youth, Violence, Inclusion, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and East Africa

95. Youth Inclusion in the Development of South Africa's National Youth Policy (2020–2030): Reflections and Recommendations

Author:: Steven Rebello
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: South Africa's National Youth Policy (NYP) 2020–2030 (DWYPD, 2020) represents the country's third attempt to outline actions that can or should be taken, by government and other stakeholders, to facilitate youth development at local and national levels. Meaningful youth inclusion and participation represents a central value within this policy. This emphasis on inclusion aligns with the Constitution of South Africa, where public participation in governance is enshrined as a constitutional imperative. Recognising this emphasis on youth inclusion, the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR) engaged with a key representative within the Department of Women, Youth and People with Disabilities (DWYPD) to determine what steps or activities the department has initiated to include youth in the development of the NYP 2020–2030 (hereafter referred to as the NYP 2030).
Topic:: Development, Governance, Youth, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

96. The Youth's Continent: Meaningful Youth Inclusion in Policy and Programme Cycles

Author:: Steven Rebello, Brian Kimari, and Mwangi Mwaura
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This policy brief develops from research carried out by the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR, South Africa) and the Centre for Human Rights and Policy Studies (CHRIPS, Kenya). Known as the Youth Inclusion for Violence Prevention Project, this research investigated the role of socio-economic and livelihood support programmes in promoting youth social and economic inclusion and preventing violence. A key finding of the research highlighted how such programmes continue to follow a top-down approach, where youth are either merely viewed as beneficiaries or not meaningfully involved in conceptualising, implementing, evaluating and revising such programmes. A discussion around the value of greater youth inclusion is supplemented with examples of how youth may have been more meaningfully included in South Africa's Community Work Programme (CWP) as well as Kenya's Youth Employment Opportunities Project (KYEOP). The brief concludes with recommendations relevant to youth inclusion in these as well as other socio-economic and livelihood support programmes.
Topic:: Employment, Youth, Violence, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

97. Climate Finance in West Africa: Assessing the state of climate finance in one of the world’s regions worst hit by the climate crisis

Author:: Norman Martin Casas and Azara Remalia Sanogo
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In West Africa/Sahel, countries and their communities are experiencing the worst impacts of the climate crisis. Elsewhere, Paris Agreement climate finance commitments are set to prioritise the countries that are most impacted by climate change. However, new research by Oxfam shows that, despite West Africa/Sahel being one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, the international climate finance received falls far short of meeting national climate finance needs and is being significantly over-reported in favour of debt instruments. Adaptation finance is also insufficient. Reported climate finance does not place gender equality at the centre, and only a small part directly reaches local actors. In light of this, developed countries and other donors should scale up grant-based adaptation finance that reaches the local level and responds to the real needs of particularly hard-hit regions such as West Africa/Sahel.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Sahel

98. Violent Extremist and Terrorist Threats: Examining Ghana’s Preparedness

Author:: Mawusi Yaw Dumenu
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: The growing spate of violent extremism and terrorism in the sub-region spells doom for the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Goal 16 which focuses on Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions. Ghana is now the only country among the earlier mentioned coastal states that has not suffered from any violent extremist and terrorist violence. This notwithstanding, there have been several alarming incidents involving extremist attacks that have occurred in close proximity to Ghana’s borders.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

99. Our climate future depends on conflict dynamics in Congo

Author:: Peer Schouten, Judith Verweijen, and Fergus Simpson
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The Congo Basin rainforest – the second largest on earth – absorbs four percent of global CO2 emissions and constitutes a crucial line of defense against cataclysmic climate change. However, a complex mix of illegal resource exploitation and conflict is currently threatening the rainforest. To curb these threats and their global consequenses, we need to understand the interplay between resources, conflict and environmental protection in Congo.
Topic:: Climate Change, Armed Forces, Conflict, Carbon Emissions, Forest, and Deforestation
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

100. No climate security without human security: Insights from Africa’s climate hotspots

Author:: Louise Wiuff Moe and Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: As Denmark prepares its candidature for a non-permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council in 2025-26, priority should go to shifting the international climate security agenda from state security and military responses to human security and climate change adaptation in fragile contexts.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, UN Security Council, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Africa

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS