Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: / Publication Year: within 5 Years

301. International Humanitarian Assistance and Multilateral Cooperation in North Korea

Author:: Jangho Choi and Yoojeong Choi
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The economic situation in North Korea is worsening. If an economic crisis occurs in North Korea, the first thing that will be pursued is humanitarian aid from the international community. North Korea's problems should not spread beyond North Korea, and above all, the international community should help ensure that the residents of North Korea can live at a minimum level of respect as human beings. This article aims to examine international humanitarian aid to North Korea and multilateral cooperation. We will examine how international humanitarian aid to North Korea has been carried out so far, what North Korea's position is on international support, and what the achievements of multilateral cooperation have been.
Topic:: Economics, Humanitarian Aid, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

302. Covid-19 Crisis and Shifts in the Corporate Competitive Landscape: Comparisons with Previous Economic Crises

Author:: Sang-Ha Yoon, Yaein Baek, Wontae Han, Yoonsoo Lee, and Daisoon Kim
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In terms of economic fluctuations, it is well recognized that the effects of an economic crisis have a detrimental impact on the entry, growth, decline, and exit of firms. In addition, the magnitude of the impact varies both within and between industries depending on the size and other characteristics of the firm. The economy is going through significant changes due to the emergence of new industries and the decline or disappearance of current ones. This study looks at how big economic events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis have affected businesses and industries. After completing a study at several levels of top international corporations, larger domestic enterprises, and domestic small and medium-sized businesses, it attempts to draw policy implications. First, it is necessary to foster and support top-tier companies to defend against global economic fluctuations and strengthen international competitiveness. In particular, the institution in charge of competition policies domestically and the institution that helps companies improve their competitiveness are different and the focus of policies is distinctive, so comprehensive attention and perspective of policymakers are needed. Second, it is urgent to respond to new issues related to competition policy in the domestic market. The behavior of emerging big tech and platform companies is different from monopoly companies in the past, so consumer welfare is not impaired, but it burdens nearby and other market participants. Therefore, a view that deviates from the focus on monopoly pricing is also essential for competition policy. Third, measures to support global corporate growth and countermeasures against changes in the industrial landscape should be prepared. Investment and R&D expansion at the corporate level is essential for corporate growth, and measures are needed to boost investment in recently emerging intangible assets. In addition, it is important to revitalize the movement of economic resources to cope with changes in the inter-industry landscape accompanied by the crisis. Fourth, policies to revitalize start-ups and closures are required. The decline in new companies' market entry and exit rates is a symtom of an aging economy contributing to the overall decrease in productivity. Therefore, enhancing the revitalization of the corporate ecosystem and expanding the size of enterprises are essential to enhance the dynamics of the economy. Fifth, it is necessary to find an appropriate combination of government roles in times of crisis. In particular, it is important to grasp the detailed status of economic stabilization policies in relation to SMEs, and at the same time, clear judgments on the appropriate size of support measures, the period of support, and the timing of collection are urgently needed.
Topic:: Economics, COVID-19, Corporations, Economic Crisis, and Competition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

303. Does Institutional Quality Matter to Korean Outward FDI? A Gravity Model Analysis

Author:: Muhammad Akhtaruzzaman
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: According to Korea’s Ministry of Knowledge Economy (currently the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy), foreign investment has now become one of the major economic pillars driving the Korean economy over the past 15 years (Tang 2022). The Korean economy started to open up to rest of the world following the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and was the biggest FDI policy reformer among 40 developed and emerging economies over the period from 1997 to 2010 (Nicolas et al. 2013). Over the last decade, Korea’s outward FDI grew much faster than inward FDI (See Figure 1) and Korea is now a net capital exporter to the world. In 2021, Korea’s outward FDI flows totaled $76.64 billion and a total of 2323 Korean enterprises invested in overseas countries (Korea EXIM Bank 2022). Due to this increased amount of outward FDI, a large number of studies (Kim and Rhee 2009; Park and Jung 2020) investigated what determines Korea’s outward FDI (OFDI). Institutional quality is found to be a major determinant in FDI literature in general. It suggests that political risk (lack of/poor institutional quality) not only deters FDI inflows to host countries but also can lead FDI to countries with higher risks and to ‘pollution heaven’ which might have an adverse impact on long term growth and development in both host and home countries. There are strong empirical evidences in literature that lack of institutional quality or good governance is associated with lower FDI inflows. An extensive literature (Alfaro et al. 2008; Ali et al. 2010; Akhtaruzzaman et al. 2017; Bénassy‐Quéré et al. 2007) investigated FDI response to various types of institutional quality in FDI host countries. Over the last 20 years data evidenced that Korea’s OFDI flowed to developing countries with a sustained large gap existing in institutional quality between host countries and Korea (See, Fig 2 top panel); however; those countries had been offering a higher degree of capital account openness. A sharp increase in capital account openness since the early 2000s coincides with sharp increase in Korea’s OFDI to those host countries. For example, Peru was the least open economy and started to initiate measures to open capital account since the mid-90s and early 2000s. The degree of openness in Peru is now similar to that of developed countries. On the other hand, Peru is one of the least progressed countries in terms of institutional quality over the same period of time. This slow or no progress in institutional quality is a common pattern of institutional improvement for a large sample of host countries of Korea’s OFDI (see, Figure 2). However, those developing countries including Peru are regular destinations of a substantial amount of Korea’s OFDI. Does this suggest that institutional quality of host country does not matter to Korean investors, or is there a 3rd factor mitigating the impact of institutional quality on Korea’s OFDI? Few studies on Korea’s OFDI considered institutional quality of host country as a control variable instead of main determinant of FDI (Park and Jung 2020). However, existing studies do not explain why Korea’s OFDI flowed to countries with a large gap in institutional quality between Korea and host countries. This research fills the gap in the literature of Korea’s OFDI. The findings of this research suggest that high degree of capital account openness (a factor that ensures profit repatriation of investors) weakened the negative impact of poor institutional quality in host countries on Korea’s OFDI. The remaining of this paper is organised as follows. Section II reviews relevant literature of FDI and identifies major determinants for Korea’s OFDI from existing studies; Section III discusses research method and empirical issues; Section IV presents the research findings; Section V concludes the research, points to the research limitations, and provides policy recommendations.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Institutions, and Knowledge Economy
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

304. Analysis on the Determinants of Labor Share and Its Policy Implications

Author:: Yaein Baek, Minsoo Han, Wongi Kim, and Hyunsuk Kim
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: There has been a significant decline in the global labor share, leading to numerous studies about the cause of this drop. The labor share is used as one of the main indicators of inequality because a decrease in the labor share can lead to aggravation of income inequality. This is because low-skilled workers can be greatly affected by such a decline in the labor share and the main source of in-come for the low-income class, including the self-employed, is labor income. Among various indicators of inequality, this study analyzes the determinants of the change in labor share. Technological changes such as adoption of robots, advancements in information and communications technology (ICT) and the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) are expected to change the labor market. Hence, this study analyzes the impact of technological changes on labor share and suggests policy responses.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

305. Analysis of India's New and Renewable Energy Market and Policies and Implications for Korea-India Cooperation

Author:: Hyoungmin Han
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The importance of new and renewable en-ergy has been drawing attention since the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted in 2015. In response to the Paris Climate Agreement, the Korean government declared carbon neutrality by 2050 and announced policy plans to create a low-carbon ecosystem in 2020. However, the domestic new and re-newable energy market is limited, making it difficult to mass-produce power generation devices. In addition, the international community's transition to a low-carbon ecosys-tem is rapidly taking place. To achieve 2050 carbon neutrality, it is necessary to secure Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) through various overseas cooperation pro-jects. Thus, it is believed that energy cooperation with developing countries is needed to expand domestic markets and to achieve overseas NDC reduction targets. Considering India's recent market expansion and active policy in the area of renewable energy, India can be a good partner for Korea in the renewable sector. To have a clear understanding of India’s renewable energy market, we conduct the analysis on India’s renewable energy market and policy, which we will explore in this article.
Topic:: Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Renewable Energy, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Asia, and South Korea

306. Network and Text Analysis on Digital Trade Agreements

Author:: Kyu Yub Lee, Cheon-Kee Lee, Won Seok Choi, Jyun-Hyun Eom, and Unjung Whang
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: We use the Trade Agreements Provisions on Electronic Commerce and Data and their corresponding texts to undertake network and text analysis on trade agreements with digital trade chapters to identify which countries are important in the network and how similar or different their texts of digital trade chapters are. centrality values reflect which countries are influential in the network, while values of similarity assess the level of similarity between the texts of digital trade chapters concluded by these countries. Centrality and similarity are complementary in assessing the relative positions of countries in the network, where the number of linkages between countries is significant in centrality and the quality of digital trade chapters is critical in similarity. We interpret this to mean that a country with a high degree of centrality is likely to be a rule-promoter in the network, whereas a country with a high degree of similarity is likely to be a rule-maker. The brief highlights three key findings from network and text analysis of digital trade agreements: (1) The U.S. has been the best rule-maker but not the best rule-promoter, whereas Singapore has been the best rule-promoter but not the best rule-maker. (2) China is a rule-maker, but to a weaker extent than the U.S., and Korea is a rule-promoter, although it is less active than Singapore. (3) Japan and Australia have served as both rule-makers and rule-promoters. Identification of countries’ relative positions in the network of digital trade agreements would be useful at the start of talks on digital trade policy.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, Digital Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, and United States of America

307. China's Green Transition Policies and Its Implications for Korea

Author:: Won Seok Choi
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In China, carbon emissions from the energy and heat producing sector account for 53.4% of total emissions, with industry (28.6%) and transportation (8.9%) being the main carbon emission sectors. Therefore, various green transition policies in energy, industry and transportation are being pursued in Chinese cities. In Chinese cities, the promotion of rooftop-distributed photovoltaic power generation, among renewable energy sources, is evaluated to be capable of intensive development, reducing power peak load, and inducing residents to consume green energy. Policies are being implemented in urban industries to reduce pollution and carbon emissions, increase energy use efficiency, improve resource use levels, and improve green manufacturing systems. In the transportation sector, China's policies to reduce emissions, expand the supply of new energy vehicles, and strengthen green transportation technology are representative. Consequently, this study summarizes the policy implications, areas of Korea-China cooperation, and risk factors of China's green transition promotion plan for its Chinese cities.
Topic:: Transportation, Industry, Carbon Emissions, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

308. Strategies of Multinational Companies Entering China in the Era of U.S.-China Competition and Implications for Korea

Author:: Sang Baek Hyun, Ji Young Moon, Min-suk Park, Jonghyuk Oh, and Yunmi Oh
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: With the integration of resources and markets around the world sparked by the trend of globalization, multinational companies have continued to grow at a rapid pace. In particular, global manufacturers have maintained their competitiveness by distributing resources more efficiently while establishing a global value chain with China as their main production hub. However, measures taken by the U.S. to block China’s access to technology and supply chains in some high-tech industries have prompted discussions on reorganization of the global supply chain, placing these multinational companies in an uncertain situation concerning their operations in China. At a time when competition between the U.S. and China is intensifying, it is necessary to look at the response strategies of global companies that have entered China and seek effective countermeasures for Korean companies.
Topic:: Economics, Multinational Corporations, Manufacturing, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

309. Higher Renewable Energy Targets in Germany: How Will the Industry Benefit?

Author:: Gilles Lepesant
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: “Deutschland – Einstieg in die Deindustrialisierung?” – “Germany, the beginning of deindustrialisation?” asked the German economic newspaper Handelsblatt in the context of the spike in energy prices that has put at risk thousands of companies across Germany in 2022. Whereas some sectors such as steel, glass and chemicals have been seriously hit, the manufacturing industries operating in the areas linked to the energy transition (such as renewable energies and hydrogen production) should benefit from decisions taken to reach climate neutrality. Will the German industry benefit from the ambitious commitments agreed by the new coalition? The boom and bust of the solar sector in 2011 are a reminder that a strong internal demand does not necessarily translate into strong and resilient supply chains on the national territory. In the context of generous support schemes, several companies emerged in the 2000s benefiting from the strong demand for solar panels before being overwhelmed by Asian competitors. Nowadays, more than 90% of solar panels are imported from China. The level of ambition of the Federal government for the Energiewende has dramatically increased with the new coalition elected in 2021, the share of renewables to be reached in the power mix by 2030 being set at 80% (against 47% in 2022). The German wind industry has however been affected by a slowdown of the expansion of capacities, several rounds of onshore wind and solar auctions being in 2022 undersubscribed. The added value of the Energiewende in terms of job creation has been ambivalent so far. The country’s current industrial geography might be partly reshaped with the efforts made by northern and eastern States to deploy renewables and green hydrogen at large scale. Stakes are high for southern Germany since new spatial patterns are emerging in the automotive sector too. While Chinese competition in the solar and wind manufacturing sectors is tough, the Inflation Reduction Act has reinvigorated discussions around a stronger industrial policy.
Topic:: European Union, Electricity, Renewable Energy, Wind Power, Hydrogen, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

310. Rebooting the Entente: An Agenda for Renewed UK-France Defense Cooperation

Author:: Alice Billon-Galland and Élie Tenenbaum
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The Franco-British Summit on March 10th, 2023, will mark a much-needed reset in bilateral cooperation, following years of strained relations. With a recently re-elected French president and a new British Prime minister, both sides are committed to making this summit a success and re-launching a positive agenda for bilateral cooperation. The summit, the first since Sandhurst in 2018, will focus on three key topics: migration, energy, and foreign policy. Defense cooperation will also be addressed, as it remains the cornerstone of the bilateral relationship, though it may take a less prominent part than on previous occasions. Rebooting the Entente: An Agenda for Renewed UK-France Defense Cooperation Download 1.38 Mo Several concrete topics for joint work should therefore be discussed and agreed, from strategic discussions on European security frameworks to joint operational deployments and capability projects. It is crucial to ensure that the symbolic reset of the bilateral relationship at the summit leads to a realistic yet ambitious defense roadmap, with concrete commitments and deliverables. As the Franco-British Summit approaches, defense cooperation remains the cornerstone of the bilateral relationship. As the war in Ukraine continues, it increases the rationale for resuming closer UK-France defense cooperation. Lessons needs to be drawn from the Lancaster House Treaties : overly ambitious and structuring plans are less likely to succeed than pragmatic, budget-conscious and ready-to-use projects. The need to prepare for high-intensity warfare opens new perspectives for capability development in all domains and for operational cooperation across the globe. This Briefing is part of a joint Chatham House-IFRI research project, the "Cross-Channel Strategic Dialogue", investigating prospects for UK-France defence and security cooperation.
Topic:: Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and High Intensity Warfare
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, and France

311. Food Systems in the Pacific: Addressing Challenges in Cooperation with Europe

Author:: Celine Pajon
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: More frequent climate disasters, rising sea levels, the economic fallout of Covid-19 lockdowns, border closures, supply chain constraints, and the global impact of the war in Ukraine have aggravated the challenge of maintaining sustainable and resilient food systems for Pacific Island Countries (PICs). Food systems in PICs are of great importance due to their impact on the health and well-being of Pacific peoples, local livelihoods, and national economies. Between 50 and 70% of Pacific people depend on agriculture and fishing activities for their livelihoods. The Pacific is home to extensive crop biodiversity, and Pacific countries are developing unique value chains for markets and international supply. However, they also face unique challenges in realizing equitable benefits in the global food system. Additionally, the Pacific needs to tackle issues like malnutrition and non-communicable diseases. Urgent global and local action is needed to manage climate change and other risks and ensure resilient food systems. Europeans are also confronted with the global food crisis and are actively working with their Pacific partners to find and fund solutions to address current and future risks by investing in local sustainable food systems. This Briefing explains the complex issues at stake regarding food systems in PICs and explores ways to address these challenges, both at the local level and in cooperation with Europeans. This Briefing is based on discussions that took place during the webinar "Food Security in Times of Crisis: Connecting the Pacific and Europe," organized by the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri)'s Pacific Islands Program in partnership with the Pacific Community (SPC) on December 8, 2022. Contributions from panelists will, therefore, be highlighted.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Food, and Industry
Political Geography:: Europe, European Union, Oceania, and Pacific Islands

312. Imagining Beyond the Imaginary. The Use of Red Teaming and Serious Games in Anticipation and Foresight

Author:: Héloïse Fayet and Amélie Ferey
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: The Red Team Defence demonstrates the Ministry of the Armed Forces' desire to appropriate new foresight tools. Thus, brain games or serious games aim to bypass the weight of the military hierarchy, the standardisation of thoughts and cognitive biases in order to avoid strategic unthinking. In September 2022, The New York Times revealed that the successful Ukrainian offensive on Kharkiv had been prepared in a series of wargames conducted that summer. Given this success, further wargames have been undertaken with a view to a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring. This rise in the popularity of wargames, which come in various forms, is due to their ability to immerse participants in a situation, helping them to become aware of their strategic and tactical blind spots and to identify their own vulnerabilities by putting themselves in the enemy’s position. The ability to anticipate crises and foresee conflicts is essential in order to maintain the initiative and ultimately win out. Thus, the aim of defense foresight is to understand the different forms future wars might take (asymmetric, hybrid, high intensity), the weapons systems that may be employed (drones, high-velocity missiles), and the factors that could trigger them. The use of wargames or scenario analyses to facilitate anticipation and foresight goes hand in hand with changes in the relationship between military and political leaders and civilians, who no longer hesitate to hold the former to account when they have failed to foresee a crisis. The German sociologist Ulrich Beck thus refers to the paradox of a society that is keen to predict the future because of its aversion to risk and the fact that it is now much more difficult to foresee what might happen in the short term due to very rapid technological developments. The modern world generates both risks and progress, and the inability to foresee strategic ruptures carries significant political costs, which explains why politicians set so much store in anticipation and foresight. The initiatives launched by Florence Parly after being appointed French minister of the armed forces in 2017 included promoting experimentation in new cognitive tools. Beyond the issue of technology, the aim was to rethink information management within the ministry in order to make it more agile and cross-cutting. In addition to a significant budget allocated to innovation in the 2019–2025 Military Programming Law, the Ministry of the Armed Forces has drawn inspiration from methods often originating in other organizational cultures, such as start-ups and the private sector, in order to improve its creativity and accelerate its adoption of digital technology.
Topic:: War Games, Military, and Anticipation
Political Geography:: Europe, France, North America, and United States of America

313. How Sweden Can Use its EU Presidency to Build the Civilian Security Dimension of the Eastern Partnership

Author:: Michal Baranowski, Mikołaj Bronert, Maximilian Kaminski, and Elene Kintsurashvili
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) lacks a security dimension and this is an urgent reform need. In particular, the EU should become the leading provider of civilian security support in the EaP countries, particularly Ukraine. But significant weaknesses in this policy field inhibit its capability to do so. Sweden’s long-term focus on the EaP, its experience in augmenting domestic cyber and hybrid resilience as well as in placing the civilian aspect at the heart of its national security, and it its leading contribution to the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) missions put it in a unique position to be a champion of the security dimension of the EaP during its presidency of the Council of the EU. Sweden can do so by pushing for: a EU-NATO memorandum of understanding on the EaP; the provision of a rapid financing mechanism to assist EaP countries in nonmilitary defense; a more coordinated training, planning, and implementing process for CSDP missions between EU actors and the EaP countries; a more targeted approach towards EaP countries; and prioritization of deepening of cooperation with EaP countries in the domain of hybrid threats.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Sweden, and Central Europe

314. Russia’s Yes Vote on Syria Aid Will Come With a Price

Author:: Anna Borshchevskaya and Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Moscow’s willingness to approve another UN extension has more to do with advancing normalization between Turkey and the Assad regime than helping Syrian civilians, who will remain hostage to Russian demands if nothing is done before the next vote this summer. On January 9, the UN Security Council unanimously approved Resolution 2672 extending the provision of cross-border humanitarian aid into northwest Syria for another six months. In the immediate term, the vote is good news for Syrian civilians suffering through one of their worst energy crises since the beginning of the civil war in 2011. But the main problem persists—absent an alternative mechanism outside the Security Council, cross-border aid will remain bound to Russia’s increasing political and security demands in Syria, which are ultimately tied to the situation in Ukraine as well. Many were surprised by Moscow’s decision to approve the new resolution. Over the years, Russia has repeatedly threatened to veto previous resolutions, and the West has largely given in to its demands by steadily diluting the aid mechanism. From that perspective, this month’s vote appeared to be a welcome sign of the Biden administration’s willingness to stand its ground on Syria despite dealing with a complex Russian challenge in Ukraine. Moscow did not even resort to its frequent tactic of abstaining from the final vote in order to signal its displeasure with the mechanism.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, UN Security Council, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

315. Iran’s New Budget Perpetuates Economic Challenges

Author:: Henry Rome
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The president is proposing de facto cuts to salaries and subsidies as well as more money for the military, while avoiding the tough reforms Iran’s economy needs. On January 11, President Ebrahim Raisi submitted his budget proposal to the Majlis for the Iranian year 2023/24. Drafted amid the most severe protests the Islamic Republic has faced since its establishment in 1979, the proposal includes no economic olive branches to the people and avoids structural reforms that could help rein in inflation and fuel growth.
Topic:: Economics, Reform, Budget, Democracy, and Energy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

316. Environmental Protection and Climate Change Budgets of Metropolitan Municipalities

Author:: Nurhan Yentürk, Berkay Hacımustafa, Yakup Kadri Karabacak, Ezgi Ediboğlu Sakowsky, and Işık Baştuğ
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This study firstly aims to classify the environmental protection and climate change (EPCC) goals stated in the 2022 performance programs of the 14 metropolitan municipalities (MM) with the highest expenditures in Turkey and their affiliated institutions (AF) (water and sewerage departments and transportation administrations) according to mitigation, adaptation, waste, and other environmental goals and to examine the budget allocated to these targets. The study, also, evaluates the pros and cons of the budgets allocated by the 14 metropolitan municipalities to mitigation, adaptation, waste, and other goals and develops concrete policy recommendations for areas in which budgets should be increased/decreased.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Governance, Crisis Management, Sustainability, Public Spending, and Municipalities
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

317. Budget Brief: Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana – Gramin

Author:: Neeha Susan Jacob, Anwesha Mallick, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana – Gramin (PMAY-G) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) flagship ‘Housing for All’ scheme. The scheme aims to provide monetary assistance for the construction of a pucca house with basic amenities to all rural houseless families and those living in dilapidated and kutcha houses. Using government data, this brief reports on trends in: ■ Allocations and cost estimates; ■ Releases and expenditures; ■ Target completion and physical progress of house construction; and ■ Payments to eligible citizens.
Topic:: Budget, Housing, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

318. Budget Brief: Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM)

Author:: Neeha Susan Jacob, Sidharth Santhosh, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) rural drinking water programme to provide functional tap connections to every household for drinking, cooking, and other domestic needs on a sustainable basis by 2024. It subsumes the National Rural Drinking Water Programme (NRDWP). This brief uses government data to report on: ■ GoI allocations, releases, and expenditures; ■ Component-wise trends; ■ Progress on coverage; and ■ Paani Samitis for Operations and Maintenance (O and M).
Topic:: Water, Governance, Budget, Rural, Sustainability, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

319. Budget Brief: Samagra Shiksha

Author:: Mridusmita Bordoloi, Avani Kapur, and Sidharth Santhosh
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Samagra Shiksha is Government of India’s (GoI’s) school education programme covering preprimary to higher-secondary levels. Launched in April 2018, the scheme is the primary vehicle to implement the provisions under the Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education (RTE) Act, 2009, and the goals for school education envisaged under the National Education Policy (NEP), 2020. After a year of reopening of schools, post the COVID-19 pandemic, this brief uses government data to analyse Samagra Shiksha performance based on: ■ Trends in allocations, releases, and expenditures; ■ Component-wise approved budgets; ■ School enrolment trends pre and post COVID-19 pandemic; and ■ Learning outcomes and ICT infrastructure.
Topic:: Education, Governance, Budget, COVID-19, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

320. Budget Brief: National Health Mission

Author:: Avani Kapur, Ritwik Shukla, and Sharad Pandey
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: National Health Mission (NHM) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) largest public health programme, which aims to achieve universal access to quality healthcare. It consists of two sub-missions: ■ National Rural Health Mission (NRHM); and ■ National Urban Health Mission (NUHM). This brief uses government data to analyse: ■ NHM finances, including proposed and approved budgets, releases, and expenditures; ■ Staff and bed availability; and ■ Outcomes.
Topic:: Health, Governance, Budget, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

321. Budget Brief: Ayushman Bharat

Author:: Madhur Sharma, Rahul Das, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Ayushman Bharat, under the aegis of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), was launched by Government of India (GoI) on 23 September 2018. This brief uses government data to analyse the following components of the scheme: ■ Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB-PMJAY); ■ Establishment of Health and Wellness Centres (HWCs); ■ Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission (ABDM); and ■ Pradhan Mantri Ayushman Bharat Health Infrastructure Mission (PM-ABHIM).
Topic:: Health, Governance, Budget, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

322. Budget Brief: Smart Cities Mission

Author:: Anwesha Mallick, Rahul Das, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Smart Cities Mission (SCM) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) urban rejuvenation mission launched on 25 June 2015. The Mission was initiated with the objective of providing core infrastructure, and decent quality of life to its citizens, along with a clean and sustainable environment. The brief uses government data to analyse the following components of the scheme: ■ Allocations and releases; ■ Utilisation of funds; ■ Project cost and completion rates; and ■ Funding through Public Private Partnership (PPP).
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, Budget, Smart Cities, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

323. Budget Brief: Food Subsidy and the National Food Security Act

Author:: Jenny Susan John, Avani Kapur, and Ria Kasliwal
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Food Subsidy is provided by the Government of India (GoI) for the supply and distribution of foodgrains and other essential commodities. With the passing of the National Food Security Act (NFSA) in 2013, nutritional security became a right. Under the Act, adequate quantities of quality food at affordable prices are to be provided to two-thirds of India’s population. This brief uses government data to analyse: ■ Allocations and releases under Food Subsidy; ■ Trends in foodgrain allocations, offtake, and distribution under NFSA and Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY); ■ Coverage under NFSA; and ■ Implementation under ‘One Nation, One Ration Card’ (ONORC).
Topic:: Governance, Budget, Food Security, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

324. Budget Brief: Mission Saksham Anganwadi and Poshan 2.0

Author:: Avani Kapur, Tanya Rana, and Ritwik Shukla
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: In Financial Year (FY) 2021-22, the Government of India (GoI) restructured the Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS), POSHAN (Prime Minister’s Overarching Scheme for Holistic Nourishment) Abhiyaan, and the Scheme for Adolescent Girls (SAG) into Mission Saksham Anganwadi and Poshan 2.0, also known as Poshan 2.0. This brief uses government data to analyse: ■ Required funds, allocations, and releases; ■ Governance, including human resources; ■ Changes in coverage; and ■ Outcomes.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Budget, Children, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

325. Budget Brief: Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme

Author:: Ria Kasliwal, Mridusmita Bordoloi, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) flagship scheme to provide at least 100 days of guaranteed wage employment in a financial year to every rural household that demands work. Using government reported data, this brief reports on the trends for: ■ Allocations, releases, and expenditures; ■ Paid wages and delayed compensations; and ■ Employment demanded and provided.
Topic:: Governance, Budget, Employment, Rural, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

326. Budget Brief: Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana and Janani Suraksha Yojana

Author:: Avani Kapur, Tanya Rana, and Jenny Susan John
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: This brief reports on two maternity benefit schemes of the Government of India (GoI): a) Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY) provides partial wage compensation to improve health-seeking behaviour of pregnant women and lactating mothers for two live births; and b) Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) incentivises institutional and safe delivery for reducing infant and maternal mortality. Using government data, this brief reports on: ■ Trends in finances; ■ Coverage and payments; and ■ Outcomes.
Topic:: Budget, Women, Public Spending, and Pregnancy
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

327. Budget Brief: Pradhan Mantri Poshan Shakti Nirman

Author:: Avani Kapur, Sharad Pandey, and Madhur Sharma
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: The National Programme of PM POSHAN, previously known as the National Scheme for Mid-Day Meals in schools (MDM), is a scheme to provide one hot cooked meal in government and government-aided schools, with an aim to improve the nutritional status of students. This brief reports on trends for PM POSHAN performance along the following parameters: ■ Past trends in allocations, releases, and utilisation; ■ Coverage and provision of meals to students; and ■ Management Information System (MIS) and Automated Monitoring System (AMS).
Topic:: Governance, Budget, Food Security, Public Spending, and Schools
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

328. Women, Peace and Security and the 2022 National Security Strategy

Author:: Hans Hogrefe and Cassandra Zavislak
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: This brief examines the inclusion of the Women, Peace and Security agenda in the Biden Administration’s 2022 National Security Strategy, and compares it to the ways in which the Trump Administration’s 2017 National Security Strategy addresses the full participation of women in our national security interests.
Topic:: Security, National Security, Women, Inequality, Peace, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

329. Reflections on Victim-Centered Accountability in Ukraine

Author:: Kelli Muddell and Anna Myriam Roccatello
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: Since Russian invaded Ukraine in late February 2022, the world has witnessed innumerable war crimes and other human rights violations, including indiscriminate attacks against civilians, summary executions, torture and ill-treatment, sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV), unlawful detentions, and forced deportation. In response, officials in Ukraine and members of the international community have launched multiple—and unprecedently expansive—efforts to investigate and prosecute these atrocities. Most, however, narrowly focus on criminal prosecution and often overlook the immediate needs and perspectives of victims. This paper examines the various actions that have been taken or are under consideration to investigate and prosecute war crimes and other human rights violations in Ukraine. It explores the myriad challenges they face and how tools from the field of transitional justice can be applied in tandem to deliver justice and reparation to victims and lay the foundation for a more inclusive and democratic Ukraine. The paper makes the case that criminal accountability is but one dimension of justice. For Ukrainians most acutely affected by the war, such as victims of torture and SGBV, as well as broad sectors of the civilian population whose lives have been upended and who now find themselves in desperate need, justice in fact entails a number of remedies including humanitarian assistance based on acknowledgment and repair. The authors further argue that the ongoing initiatives to investigate crimes committed in the war offer an opportunity. Specifically, the vast amount of documentation that government, civil society, and international actors have been gathering for use as evidence in criminal proceedings can be harnessed to advance other justice-related objectives. For instance, this information could serve a truth-seeking process that aims to establish a victim-centered historical record of the war and could inform the design of a more coordinated and forward-looking assistance program, including a much-needed reparations program.
Topic:: Reform, Criminal Justice, Accountability, Institutions, Peace, Justice, Reparations, Gender, Truth and Reconciliation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

330. ASEAN’s Role in the Threat of Global Economic Decoupling: Implications from Geographical Simulation Analysis

Author:: Ikumo Isono and Satoru Kumagai
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The war between Russia and Ukraine since February 2022 has triggered renewed concerns about global economic decoupling. Although the face-to-face meeting between the United States and China leaders in November 2022 agreed to continue the dialogue, it is premature to assert that progress has begun in the direction of avoiding decoupling. We used the geographical simulation model (IDE/ERIA-GSM) to examine the possible economic impacts of global economic decoupling on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). We define decoupling as policy changes that raise barriers to trade in goods and services and firms’ responses to these changes. If policy decoupling occurs despite the efforts of economic agents, the global economy is negatively affected. ASEAN has a relative advantage through positive trade diversion effects if it does not join any of the groups. Adherence to a rules-based international trade order will ultimately benefit ASEAN Member States and people. ASEAN should demonstrate ASEAN centrality and show the world its efforts to avoid decoupling. It should also avoid participating in decoupling if it occurs.
Topic:: Manufacturing, Industry, ASEAN, and Connectivity
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

331. Reframing of Global Strategies and Regional Cooperation Pathways for an Inclusive Net-Zero Strategy in the Energy Transition Framework

Author:: Fachry Abdul Razak Afifi, Venkatachalam Anbumozhi, Dongmei Chen, Alin Halimaussadiah, and Vida Hardjono
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: As carbon dioxide emission reductions become increasingly urgent to counter climate change, many nations have announced net-zero emissions targets. Achieving a net-zero economy will require the decarbonisation of electricity generation, massive expansion of low-carbon energy systems, and investment in net-zero-carbon technologies. These adjustments must consider the existing energy, economic, and social development imperatives of advanced and developing countries, while encouraging regional cooperation. This brief assesses energy transition challenges for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and proposes new policy pathways towards an inclusive global net-zero economy.
Topic:: Climate Change, ASEAN, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

332. Geographical Simulation Analysis for CADP 3.0

Author:: Ikumo Isono, Satoru Kumagai, and Keita Oikawa
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The economic impact of the development of transport and digital infrastructure and the adoption of energy-saving technologies envisaged in the Comprehensive Asia Development Plan 3.0 (CADP 3.0) was analysed using the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) and Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) geographical simulation model (IDE/ERIA-GSM). This infrastructure development and technology adoption will affect all industries and change the structure of the economy as the basis for rejuvenated and advanced industries such as agriculture, automotives, medicine, and pharmaceuticals. By combining this infrastructure development and technology adoption, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and East Asia could achieve high economic impacts and geographical inclusiveness. The Lao People’s Democratic Republic will obtain the greatest economic impact as it transitions from a landlocked to a land-linked country. Cambodia will also reap significant benefits from upgrading information and communication technology. The simulation results thus recommend the implementation of the CADP 3.0 strategy for both ASEAN and individual Member States.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, ASEAN, COVID-19, and Simulation
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

333. Facilitating Global Trade and Investment and Leveraging Value Added in Downstream Industries

Author:: Raihan M. Ramadhan and Pyan Amin Muchtar
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Despite facing global uncertainties, Indonesia has achieved macroeconomic stability, supported by strong responses in fiscal and monetary policy, as well as robust domestic supply chains. By using its natural resources and following the global trend of green industries, Indonesia aims to become a key player in the global renewable energy market. Sound infrastructure is one of the key requirements to attract high-profile investments, but Indonesia struggles with poor and unequal infrastructure. Cumbersome bureaucracy and restrictiveness towards services trade also hinder the nation from reaching its potential. Strengthening physical, human, and institutional infrastructure will help the country secure investments and boost trade.
Topic:: Investment, Trade, Industry, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

334. Redefining Indonesia’s Digital Economy

Author:: Militcyano Samuel Sapulette and Pyan Amin Muchtar
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The Indonesian digital economy is the largest and most attractive investment destination amongst the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Member States (AMS). The sector has grown more than fourfold in the last 4 years and has supported other sectors. Amid the exponential growth, digital businesses are facing what is called a ‘tech winter’ in which start-ups are likely to experience slowdowns or even bankruptcy. In addition, although the digital transformation helps businesses improve productivity and drive economic growth, it has consequences for employment and wages, particularly for less skilled workers. While the potential of the digital economy must be continuously harnessed, some key initiatives need to be implemented to mitigate its negative effects.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Investment, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

335. The Global Economic Outlook and the State of Indonesia

Author:: Ivana Markus and Pyan Amin Muchtar
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The global economy is facing a perfect storm as a result of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, prolonged geopolitical tensions, soaring inflation, and tightening monetary policy. A darkening future has been projected and the worst is yet to come. Amid global uncertainty, governments have become less aggressive in their budget spending, while high inflation has led many central banks to tighten their monetary policy. Furthermore, the pandemic has left widespread scarring effects, such as unemployment, poverty, and inequality, particularly on vulnerable groups. Global challenges and lower economic growth of the major economies will also affect Indonesia’s economic conditions, as the country may experience slower growth as a spillover from its major trading partners. It is important for the world and Indonesia to address these challenges, particularly the scarring effects, through multilateral solidarity and better maintenance of prudent fiscal policy.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, Investment, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

336. ASEAN Digital Community 2040

Author:: Lili Yan Ing and Ivana Markus
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Digital transformation (DX) is one of the most crucial innovations to have changed modern life over the last decade. The number of annual installations of industrial robots worldwide has more than doubled. Technological revolutions have led to unprecedented changes in what and how we trade. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is on track to grow its digital community, with a rising number of internet users and greater internet penetration. However, one of the main concerns in the growing DX era is the digital divide within and across countries including in ASEAN, which is reflected in the gaps in internet speed, usage, and technology production amongst ASEAN Member States. Other challenges in DX are privacy, cybersecurity, and competition concerns. The ASEAN Chairmanship in 2023 could address several DX challenges to move towards the vision of a thriving ASEAN Digital Community by 2040 through implementing ASEAN commitments, improving the quality of key digital enablers for digital technology adoption, enhancing countries’ preparedness for digital transformation, and improving the quality of privacy and competition laws to address the costs and risks of DX.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Innovation, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

337. Structural Transformation and the Global Production Value Chain: Potential Impact of the Cambodia-Republic of Korea FTA on Cambodia

Author:: Shandre Mugan Thangavelu and Vutha Hing
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the structural transformation of the Cambodian economy based on the impact of the CKFTA in terms of trade, output growth, and employment. It summarises the key results of the CKFTA study that examined the impact of the CKFTA on the Cambodian economy – specifically quantitative (structural gravity model estimation and simulation) and qualitative trade policy evaluation in terms of exports, output, and structural transformation of the economy in the global and regional value chains. The policy brief also highlights the key benefits of the CKFTA to the Cambodian economy.
Topic:: Economy, Economic Growth, Investment, Trade, and Value Chains
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and Cambodia

338. Understanding the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement: A Means to Support ASEAN Integration

Author:: Mima Sefrina
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has accelerated the importance of digital technologies in the economy, particularly in e-commerce and digital financial services. Recognising the importance of digital technologies for economic recovery, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders signed the Bandar Seri Begawan Roadmap in 2021, which laid the foundation for the integration of the ASEAN digital economy in three phases – recovery, implementation, and transformation – and affirmed their interest in the establishment of a Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA). The DEFA aims to deepen existing digital economy cooperation and ensure the interoperability of digital economy systems. The formulation and signing of the DEFA will require the provision of flexible timelines and technical assistance, as the ASEAN Digital Integration Index shows that ASEAN is still in the early stages of digital economy development and that ASEAN Member States are at different levels of readiness for digital economy integration.
Topic:: Governance, Regulation, Digital Economy, Regional Integration, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

339. Fostering ASEAN’s Digital Future through Cybersecurity Policies and Human Empowerment

Author:: Michelle Chandra Kasih
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: The adoption of advanced technology comes with the risk of cyberattacks. Despite the remarkable prospects of the digital economy, the cost of cyberattacks has reached millions of United States (US) dollars and is projected to increase. Investment is needed to provide cybersecurity to help secure the growth of the digital and sustainable economy and anticipate more advanced attacks. As investment in cybersecurity has started to grow in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), challenges are present in the intangible form of inexistent or strict policies, skill shortages, and insufficient public awareness, which can halt the effectiveness of such investment. This policy brief proposes three policy recommendations to ensure successful investment in cybersecurity: Ensure that cybersecurity policies and legal frameworks are not underdeveloped or overly restrictive. Support small businesses in earning customer trust through cost-effective guidelines. Incentivise and maintain partnerships for education, research, and capacity building with moral and ethical education for future experts. Raise cyber hygiene and establish integrative reporting platforms that help people identify and detect cyber risk.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Digital Economy, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

340. Development of the Blue Economy in Viet Nam

Author:: Vo Tri Thanh
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Viet Nam is exploring various models to promote long-term economic growth and sustainable development, including the blue economy. Viet Nam’s policy documents have no formal definition of the marine economy or the newer concept of the blue economy. However, the policy documents have increasingly captured the essence of the blue economy, especially related to sustainable development. While lacking frequent updates and sufficient scope, the available statistics show the importance of the marine economy in the country. Viet Nam has various advantages for blue economy development, including high levels of sea traffic, a large sea area, a long coastline, and abundant marine resources. New opportunities for blue economy development can arise from consumers’ attention to sustainable development, improvement of the related legal framework, and cooperation with partners and foreign investors. However, Viet Nam needs to improve the awareness of local authorities and people, strengthen institutions for blue economy development, and upgrade the capacity to forecast and warn of natural disasters and climate change at sea, including via international cooperation.
Topic:: Governance, Regulation, Sustainability, ASEAN, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:: Vietnam and Southeast Asia

341. Malaysia’s Blue Economy: Position, Initiatives, and Challenges

Author:: Abdul Hafizh Mohd Azam, Muhamad Rias K.V. Zainuddin, and Tamat Sarmidi
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Malaysia leverages the economic activities in and around its oceans, seas, and coastal areas, as its maritime space is double the country’s land area. The marine-based or blue economy contributes about 23% of Malaysia’s GDP. Realising the importance of the blue economy led Malaysian policymakers to incorporate the concept of the blue economy in the Twelfth Malaysia Plan, which was developed in consultation with relevant ministries and organisations. Although the blue economy has been identified as a key area of growth for Malaysia, its development faces numerous challenges such as the absence of a comprehensive national ocean policy and marine spatial plan, overlapping jurisdiction amongst government agencies, and shortage of labour. Thus, a systematic approach is necessary to analyse the gaps in the ‘8i-ecosystem’ to ensure the effective development and management of Malaysia's blue economy. To ensure that the initiatives for the blue economy in Malaysia are on track and delivering the intended outcomes, appropriate monitoring and evaluation approaches and mechanisms must be in place.
Topic:: Governance, Regulation, Services, Trade, ASEAN, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:: Malaysia and Southeast Asia

342. Developing the Blue Economy in Indonesia

Author:: Keanu Can Can and Teguh Dartano
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: During Indonesia’s chairmanship of ASEAN in 2023, it has highlighted the blue economy as a key sector for the region’s sustainable future. A greener and bluer economy requires both environmental and societal balance. In prioritising the sector, Indonesia recognises both the steep challenges and the abundant potential associated with the blue economy, alongside the need for international and inter-sectoral cooperation to fully leverage the sector’s capacity for a more inclusive and equitable future. This brief explores Indonesia’s existing progress in harnessing its blue economy, what challenges lie ahead, and what strategic initiatives Indonesia must undertake to pave a pathway towards a blue economic transformation.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Governance, Regulation, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

343. ASEAN Digital Community (ADC) 2045

Author:: Lili Yan Ing, Imam Pambagyo, Yessi Vadila, Ivana Markus, and Livia Feliciani Nazara
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Digital transformation has profoundly reshaped not only the way we work but also the way we live. It has shifted the focus of goods and services trade, emphasising not only what is produced and traded, but also how it is traded, customised, and delivered. The rapid digital transformation within the ASEAN region has ushered in an array of risks and challenges. These challenges encompass a spectrum of concerns, ranging from the safeguarding of data privacy and fortification against cyber threats to grappling with intensified competition and addressing the ever-widening digital divide. To fully embrace the opportunities presented by the digital age, ASEAN must lay the foundation for an ASEAN Digital Community (ADC) 2045, that can serve as a vision for ASEAN in embracing a new era. This visionary pursuit must be anchored in four pivotal cornerstones: robust data governance, the infusion of value-added principles, the establishment of seamless digital connectivity, and the propagation of digital inclusivity.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Innovation, Integration, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia

344. Developing a National Blue Economy Framework for Lao PDR

Author:: Aloun Phonvisay
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: This policy brief discusses the development of a national blue economy framework for the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) to capitalise on the country’s rich water and forest resources in a sustainable manner. The framework would promote sustainable development of the blue economy, identify priority areas for investment, enhance stakeholder capacity, and promote the Lao PDR blue economy. The priority sectors identified for investment include fisheries, forest carbon, inland marine connectivity, and hydropower development.
Topic:: Sustainable Development Goals, Investment, and Blue Economy
Political Geography:: Southeast Asia and Laos

345. A Strategy for US Public Diplomacy in the Age of Disinformation

Author:: Bret Schafer, Rachael Dean Wilson, and Jessica Brandt
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: “Would you rather have the bitter truth or more sweet lies?” This is the question posed by an assertive series of videos produced by the State Department in recent months, targeting Russian audiences, that juxtapose statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin with evidence that he is lying about the course of the war in Ukraine. DOWNLOAD PDF The effort, alongside revelations laid bare by Washington and its allies at the start of the war, reflects a new understanding: that the information domain is perhaps the most consequential terrain that Putin is contesting and that it is an essential theater of the broader, emerging, persistent, asymmetric competition between liberal democracies and their authoritarian challengers. As part of this competition, autocrats—in Moscow and Beijing, but also elsewhere—have leveraged multiple asymmetries. Both Russia and China operate vast propaganda networks that use multiple modes of communication—from state media websites to popular social media accounts to leading search engines—to disseminate their preferred, often slanted, versions of events. Both have spread multiple, sometimes conflicting, conspiracy theories designed to deflect blame for their own malfeasance, undermine the soft power of the United States, and erode the idea that there is such a thing as objective truth. Both also deploy proxy influencers to agitate anti-American sentiment and frequently engage in “whataboutism” to cast US policy as hypocritical to audiences around the world. Some of this content is targeted at broad swaths of the public within Western societies—in Russia’s case with the goal of polarizing them, and in so doing, weakening Europe and the United States from within. Other content is targeted at the global south, with the goal of eroding popular support for Western policies and, in China’s case, promoting alternatives to the Western model. For the United States, like other democracies, an open information environment confers enormous long-term advantages, but it also creates vulnerabilities that can be exploited using low-cost tools and tactics, often with plausible deniability. Where democracies depend on the idea that the truth is knowable and citizens can discern it to govern themselves, autocracies have no such need for a vibrant, open, trusted information environment. In fact, autocrats benefit from widespread public skepticism in the notion of objective truth. Because autocratic regimes tightly control their own information environments, they are more insulated from criticism than democratic ones. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping effectively ban many Western social media platforms from operating within their borders in order to close space for dissent, all the while using them quite effectively to target audiences abroad. In doing so, unlike their democratic competitors, autocrats face few normative constraints on lying—a dynamic they freely exploit. As a result, autocrats have made remarkable advances in the contest that is now underway in the information domain. To push back on these advances, the United States should leverage its own asymmetric advantages—including its economic might, cyber capabilities, soft power, and the legitimacy that comes from democratic governance—recognizing that successful competitors play to their strengths. A focal point of US strategy should be to harness truthful information to contest the information domain, recognizing that competition in this realm is ongoing and there is a first mover advantage to setting the terms of the debate. Such an approach should entail simultaneously highlighting the strengths of liberal democracies (such as their openness to new information and ability to course correct, innovate, and improve) and the failures and false promises of authoritarian regimes (like kleptocracy and repression). It must do so not just to reach those who live in closed spaces, such as Russia and China, but to reach those who live in countries that are backsliding or where democracy is not fully consolidated. This paper—which is based on conversations with more than a dozen subject-matter experts, including current and former diplomats—offers recommendations for updating US public diplomacy to compete successfully with Russia and China. The focus, however, is limited to US international broadcasting and strategic communication activities and does not include recommendations to improve other elements of US public diplomacy, including but not limited to cultural diplomacy and people-to-people exchanges. The authors recognize that public diplomacy is not merely about crafting a winning message and that an effective US approach must include activities that lie outside of the information domain. This paper should therefore be viewed as an attempt at improving a piece of, but not the whole, public diplomacy puzzle.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democracy, Media, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

346. Assessing the Risk of Foreign Influence in UK Search Results

Author:: Bret Schafer and Peter Benzoni
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: As the de facto gateway to the vast troves of information available online, search services play a critical role in the modern information ecosystem. They are often the starting points for people’s questions about the world around them, from the innocuous to the deeply consequential. The results generated by search algorithms can therefore influence everything from consumer behavior to people’s political and social preferences, often in ways that are imperceptible to users of those systems. Given this significant power, search services are also targets of those who seek to manipulate information to advance a particular, and at times malign, agenda. This includes those working for or on behalf of autocratic foreign governments, who can attempt to leverage search results to whitewash human rights abuses, attack opponents, or interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. The threat is particularly acute with well-resourced states that operate global state-backed media outlets, troll farms, and other state-aligned information outlets that allow them to exploit search services through strategic content production, search engine optimization, or intentional manipulation. DOWNLOAD PDF To evaluate this potential risk, we analyzed data over a 30-day period across six search products on four search services (Google Search, Google News, Microsoft Bing, Bing News, Yandex Search, and Baidu Search) to assess the prominence of foreign state-linked websites, or those that reproduce content from those websites, in search returns for queries related to topics of national importance to the United Kingdom. Importantly, we could not assess, nor was it our intention to assess, whether the prominence of any state-linked sources in search results was the result of deliberate manipulation by those states or merely the product of search algorithms determining that the content produced by those sites was relevant to a given query. We also did not assess the relative quality of any individual state media outlets. We recognize that state-backed information sources exist on a broad spectrum in terms of their authoritativeness and journalistic standards, and that a connection to a foreign state is not necessarily problematic and should not be viewed by search services as an inherent risk. In short, our efforts to understand the prominence of state-linked sources in search results should not be viewed as an attempt to document wrongdoing, either by the sources themselves or by the search services that surfaced those sources. In addition, although we attempted to select topics that were important to UK interests instead of those that favored the interests of any one foreign government, some of the chosen queries—notably those related to the war against Ukraine—were more likely to be the focus of messaging from certain countries. Results from this study should therefore not be used as comparative data points to suggest that any one state is more influential in UK search results than any other. Instead, the goal of this research was simply to gain a better understanding of how and how often content from websites with direct or indirect links to foreign states—primarily state-backed media outlets but also websites directly or indirectly linked to foreign governments or foreign intelligence services—surfaced in search results in the four constituent countries of the UK. Though we offer several illustrative examples highlighting specific vulnerabilities uncovered by our research, the bulk of this report is focused on assessing a potential risk of foreign interference by identifying the types of variables—from the topic searched for to the language used—that regularly generated search results from state-linked websites, without assessing whether the content of those search results is potentially illegal under the UK’s newly created Foreign Interference Offense included in the National Security Act 2023. We did, however, pay particular attention to the presence of content produced by media outlets currently sanctioned by the UK government, namely Russian state media outlets that were sanctioned after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Democracy, Media, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

347. Family Rule in Iraq and the Challenge to State and Democracy

Author:: Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After the fall of Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship in 2003, Iraqi political parties proliferated in a show of enthusiasm for the country’s emerging democracy. In recent years, however, a handful of personalities and families have consumed all of the country’s political oxygen, dashing hopes for a truly pluralistic ecosystem. Especially discouraging has been the authoritarian shift in Kurdistan, once viewed as a democratic beacon in the Middle East. At the federal level, feuding between the Sadr and Maliki camps now dominates Shia politics, and Mohammed al-Halbousi has crowded out other Sunni players. Meanwhile, corruption touches every surface, and the rare official who holds to ethical standards risks being rendered entirely ineffectual. In this wide-ranging Policy Note, experts Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab outline the dispiriting state of Iraqi politics and how the United States can respond. To achieve the scaled-down goals of maintaining sovereignty and accountability, they argue, American officials must be creative, working with Iraqi institutional actors while simultaneously engaging with less central figures such as apolitical military commanders and the business community.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Democracy, State, and Shia Islam
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

348. An Heir and a Spare? How Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah” Could Change Iran’s Deterrent Calculus

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since October 27, the Houthis have launched three medium-range ballistic missiles at Israel, a first since Saddam Hussein fired Scud missiles into the country in 1991. The Yemen-based jihadists have also launched at least eight salvos of cruise missiles and long-range explosive drones focused on the southern port of Eilat. Moreover, they have attacked U.S. assets directly during the Hamas-Israel war, shooting down one MQ-9 Reaper drone and routing numerous missiles near Navy vessels. If Iran continues to develop the group’s capabilities, the Houthis may provide the broader “axis of resistance” with a potent new chess piece. In this timely Policy Note, Michael Knights assesses the rising Houthi threat and explains how the United States and its allies can respond more assertively and effectively. A revamped policy would recognize the intimate alliance between the Houthis and Iran—which has never been a “marriage of convenience,” as some analysts have imagined—and seek to counter the group’s aggression with the goal of securing U.S. interests and providing a better future for the Yemeni people.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Deterrence, and Houthis
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

349. Exploiting a "Vast Jihad Arena": The Islamic State Takes Territory in Mali

Author:: Aaron Y. Zelin and Sarah Cahn
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In April, Islamic State fighters in Mali seized villages surrounding the city of Menaka, marking the group’s first territorial conquest since losing its final Syrian foothold in 2019. The human cost of these advances has been steep. By May, at least 150,000 individuals had reportedly been displaced, and civilians have been subjected to targeted killings, kidnappings, and looting. The offensive occurred amid a string of regional of security setbacks: namely, France’s August 2022 military withdrawal (which followed the Malian junta’s expressed preference for Russia’s Wagner Group), the April 2023 dissolution of the UN mission in Mali, and the junta’s decision earlier this month to form a tripartite alliance with Burkina Faso and Niger, thereby undermining the French-led G5 Sahel framework designed to thwart jihadist actors in the region. In this amply illustrated Policy Note, Aaron Zelin and Sarah Cahn explain that while the United States may have limited room for maneuver in Mali today, it can promote regional stability and U.S. national interests by pursuing further sanctions against local Islamic State officials and exploring constructive arrangements with nearby African states.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Islamic State, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, and Mali

350. The Palestinian Authority Thirty Years After Oslo

Author:: Neomi Neumann
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Palestinians and Israelis mark the thirtieth anniversary of the Oslo Accords, it is worth pausing to examine what remains of the original promise contained in the agreement (hint: something does remain). More than that, it is worth examining whether those remnants can survive the many challenges facing the Palestinian Authority, especially those likely to emerge “the day after” President Mahmoud Abbas exits the stage.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Democracy, Palestinian Authority, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

351. A "System of Systems" Approach to Countering Drones: Examining Recent Operations from the Middle East to Ukraine

Author:: Eric Feely
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Drones have proliferated over the past decade, offering a cheap, effective precision-strike capability and leading to an inflection point wherein the United States can no longer count on complete air superiority. As former U.S. Central Command head Kenneth McKenzie put it, “Until we are able to develop and field a networked capability to detect and defeat [drones], the advantage will remain with the attacker.” The United States and other countries have therefore begun investing in counter-drone systems to complement and augment legacy air defense systems that have already proven effective in the role. Conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and elsewhere suggest that progress in drone technology will require corresponding adjustments in counter-drone capabilities to fill gaps and lower the costs of interception. In this lavishly illustrated Policy Note, Eric Feely details counter-drone approaches used in recent conflicts and what they could mean for the future of warfare. Military officials, he writes, are not seeking a silver bullet on this front, but rather advances based on existing layered, interoperable systems capable of providing kinetic and nonkinetic solutions.
Topic:: Security, Weapons, Drones, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and Gulf Nations

352. The Next Generation of Iranian Ballistic Missiles: Technical Advances, Strategic Objectives, and Potential Western Responses

Author:: Farzin Nadimi
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 25, 2023, Iran’s minister of defense, Gen. Mohammad Reza Qaraei Ashtiani, unveiled the so-called fourth generation of the Khoramshahr liquid-fuel ballistic missile—aka Kheibar—amid heightened tensions with Israel and the West regarding Tehran’s nuclear program and renewed talk of preventive strikes against Iran’s key nuclear sites. Ashtiani spoke at the Hakimiyeh Aerospace Industries Organization complex, east of Tehran, against a backdrop with the new missile and a large model of Jerusalem’s Dome of the Rock. The name Kheibar comes from a fortified oasis settlement north of Medina, Saudi Arabia, inhabited by Jewish tribes before the Islamic era. In AD 628, the Jews there were defeated by Muslim armies led by Ali ibn Abi Talib, who has become a legendary figure in Shia Islam. The message to Israel implicit in the Kheibar announcement was therefore unmistakable. The Khoramshahr is Iran’s most advanced liquid-fuel ballistic missile and probably the first using storable liquid fuel, with its first version having been introduced at a military parade on September 22, 2017. The missile is believed to have much in common technically with the North Korean Hwasong-10—itself based on the retired Russian R-27 submarine-launched ballistic missile. Iran is thought to have received several Hwasong-10 missiles from North Korea in 2005 for reverse engineering purposes. The Khoramshahr is also Iran’s first departure from the Russian Scud and scaled Scud-generation propulsion systems.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

353. How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Is Reshaping the Global Arms Market: Implications for the Middle East and Beyond

Author:: Grant Rumley and Louis Dugit-Gros
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Ukraine war is spurring profound changes in the global arms market as Russia, long a top exporter, grapples with battlefield losses, Western sanctions, and reputational damage to its weaponry. Countries that routinely bought arms from Moscow have started considering alternative sources, emerging exporters have amplified their sales pitches, and governments worldwide are seeking to build up their domestic defense industrial bases to safeguard against market turbulence in the age of intensifying great power competition. The Middle East—long one of the world’s principal arms importing regions—sits at the forefront of this new global landscape. In this timely Policy Note, defense expert Grant Rumley and French diplomat-in-residence Louis Dugit-Gros survey the arms marketplace following the Ukraine invasion. They see both opportunities and potential risks for Western states, and argue for steps such as reinforcing Ukraine’s defense industrial base to eventually compete with Russia’s, establishing longer-term security cooperation plans with Middle East partners, and taking action to strengthen the European defense industrial base.
Topic:: Security, Military, Russia-Ukraine War, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:: Middle East and United States of America

354. The Regent of Allah: Ali Khamenei's Political Evolution in Iran

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: During his lengthy tenure as Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei has shown a knack for consolidating power by creating layers of bureaucracy in military, economic, and religious affairs. In turn, he has liberally purged officials who have hinted at disloyalty to him, the Islamic Republic, or its governing doctrine, velayat-e faqih (rule of the jurisprudent). But Khamenei does not lack for personal complexity. As a younger man, he dressed casually, flaunted his love of literature, and composed poetry. And as a leader, he has often demonstrated flexibility—coined as “heroic flexibility” in the case of the 2015 nuclear deal—at times of national risk or strained social cohesion. He has likewise blessed the rise of relatively moderate presidents such as Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani when he thought their leadership would reinforce national stability. In this wide-ranging study, former Qom theologian Mehdi Khalaji details Khamenei’s political ascent, from his role as an influential cleric in Mashhad to his presidency under Ruhollah Khomeini and his surprising appointment as Supreme Leader. Whoever succeeds him, the author makes plain, will inherit an infrastructure designed to preserve Iran’s authoritarian system and suppress rumblings of internal dissent.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Political Islam, and Ali Khamenei
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

355. Cash Cabal: How Hezbollah Profits from Lebanon's Financial Crisis

Author:: Samara Azzi and Hanin Ghaddar
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In March 2020, Lebanon opted for a “hard default” on $32 billion in sovereign debt, allowing the government to avoid negotiating with its Eurobond holders and investors. Beirut thereafter showed little interest in addressing the consequences of default, and the country’s economic meltdown worsened. As usual, the Lebanese people were the casualties, suffering amid what the World Bank has called a “deliberate depression.” This official negligence has cleared the way for a proliferating cash economy—which in turn has spawned a currency exchange scheme involving the central bank, foreign exchange agents, and Lebanese politicians. Hezbollah specifically has profited in areas ranging from real estate to solar energy, pharmaceuticals, and the illicit Captagon trade. In this Policy Note, authors Samara Azzi and Hanin Ghaddar—a venture capitalist and a former Lebanese journalist—skillfully diagram the corrupt status quo and explain why entrenched actors want to avoid systemic change. But as the study makes clear, the future health of the Lebanese economy requires an overhaul, and the international community must now press for deep reforms and personal accountability.
Topic:: Politics, Non State Actors, Financial Crisis, Economy, Hezbollah, and Shia Islam
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

356. Arming the Revolution: Trends in Iranian Defense Spending, 2013–23

Author:: Henry Rome
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Islamic Republic boasts a large and expanding nuclear program, the most capable missile and drone force in the Middle East, and a broad network of proxies that threaten U.S. interests. Nevertheless, scholars have devoted little attention to a key area: Iran’s defense spending. Although the data is publicly available, tabulating it is more difficult than one might assume, and three particular hazards await: (1) conversion of Iranian rials to dollars at unrealistic rates, (2) reliance on spending plans as opposed to actual spending, and (3) undercounting. Thus, any attempt to understand Iran’s military spending must scrupulously avoid such traps. In this Policy Note, Iran expert Henry Rome offers the most detailed public accounting yet of Tehran’s recent defense spending, illustrated by charts showing domestic trends and comparisons with regional rivals. The findings show how spending surged following the 2015 nuclear deal and plummeted following the U.S. withdrawal from the deal in 2018. They also suggest that a new nuclear accord with Washington will likely prompt another increase, demanding a broader strategy to counter Iran’s military ambitions alongside its nuclear ones.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Economy, Defense Spending, and Military
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

357. Is Iran Looking to Inspire Shia Homegrown Violent Extremist Attacks?

Author:: Moustafa Ayad and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: An October 2018 report by the National Counterterrorism Center defined Shia homegrown violent extremists as “individuals who are inspired or influenced by state actors such as Iran, foreign terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, or Shia militant groups but who do not belong to these groups and are not directed by them.” At the time, the prospect of such Shia violence was largely theoretical, and officials could identify no tangible threats on American soil. But the January 2020 targeted killing of Iranian Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani changed the picture, and U.S. officials could now point to a “catalyzing event,” as envisioned in the NCTC brief. Last year’s attack against writer Salman Rushdie and another at a Las Vegas hotel exemplified how Iran-inspired individuals were motivated to act. In this Policy Note, experts Moustafa Ayad and Matthew Levitt explore lone-offender Shia violence largely through the lens of social media. Closer tracking of online networks, they argue, could illuminate this flourishing virtual activity and how it might lead to real-world harm.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Shia
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

358. Saudi Normalization with Israel, Domestic 'Transformation,' and U.S. Policy

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Prospects for a Saudi-Israel diplomatic breakthrough appear to have cooled lately amid Riyadh’s rapprochement with Tehran and domestic ferment in Israel. But a narrow focus on these obstacles misses deeper, more encouraging trend lines, including Saudi public receptivity to people-to-people contact already underway in business and sports. Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has stirringly referred to Israel as a “potential ally,” and the transformative post-oil future he is mapping out for the kingdom offers the promise of bilateral cooperation in commerce, high-tech, and tourism, among other sectors. Notwithstanding Riyadh’s deal with Iran, the Saudis and Israelis still share a common threat in the Islamic Republic and a common interest to address it. The key to a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement, writes Segal Executive Director Robert Satloff in this new Institute Policy Note, is the U.S. role. While cautioning that a “Sadat to Jerusalem” moment is unrealistic for Saudi Arabia and Israel in the near future, especially given competing priorities for Riyadh, he argues that President Biden could—if he so chooses—negotiate a historic three-way, win-win-win arrangement that not only establishes formal Saudi-Israel relations but also advances a range of important American interests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Reform, Democracy, Normalization, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

359. Turkey's Pivotal 2023 Elections: Issues, Potential Outcomes, and What Comes After

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 14, Turkey’s citizens will cast their ballots for president and parliament, and polls suggest the longtime incumbent could actually lose this time. President Erdogan’s challenger, Republican People’s Party head Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has assembled an ideologically diverse coalition united in its determination to oust the ruling bloc. Guiding the opposition, known popularly as the “Table of Six,” is a message focused on restoring competence amid sky-high inflation and a faltering response to the devastating February earthquakes. But Erdogan’s challengers still face headwinds created in part by his near-complete control of the media. In this Policy Note compilation, Turkey expert Soner Cagaptay and his fellow contributors concur that Erdogan will use polarizing tactics to keep power, whatever the results of the May 14 balloting or a possible May 28 presidential runoff. They also assess how various wild card developments—including the entry of spoiler candidate Muharrem Ince and meddling from Russia—could aid the Turkish leader in unforeseen ways.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Democracy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Strategic Competition, and AKP
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

360. Turkish Backlash: How Street Interviews Spread Anti–Syrian Refugee Sentiment

Author:: Sude Akgundogdu
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In early February, two major earthquakes shook Turkey’s southeast, as well as parts of Syria, claiming at least 45,000 Turkish lives in what has become the biggest natural disaster in modern Turkish history. The country’s most pressing challenge is to provide relief for the more than 13 million citizens who live in areas directly affected by the tremors. In the meantime, however, in addition to exposing egregious zoning and building code violations, the powerful quakes have revealed new dimensions of anti-Syrian feeling in Turkey. In the days that followed, gruesome videos circulated on social media showing vigilantes battering individuals they accused of looting in the affected provinces. Syrian refugees have seen their noncitizen status exacerbated by local resentment, resulting in limited access to earthquake relief resources; they have likewise been especially vulnerable to the vigilantism. “Looting” and “Syrian” have become synonymous in some corners of social media, fueling public resentment centered on the refugee population. But hate directed at Syrians on the Turkish web is nothing new. Turkey has seen an overall uptick in anti-refugee violence since 2021, often targeting Syrians. In a particularly violent episode in August 2021, residents of the Altindag district in Ankara vandalized and looted Syrian-run businesses and homes. Across 2022 and into 2023, even before the earthquakes, hate crimes against Syrians have continued to increase. Turkey hosts at least 4 million refugees—3.7 million of them Syrian nationals or stateless people who have migrated from Syria. This is an almost 5 percent addition to Turkey’s existing population, which stood at about 74 million before their arrival, making it the largest influx to Turkey since the Balkan Wars of 1912–13, amid the Ottoman Empire’s collapse. Since the Syrian war began in 2011, the Turkish government has welcomed large numbers of Syrian refugees and given them “temporary protected status.” While the public in general welcomed them, since Turkey fell into recession in 2018, tolerance has worn thin. This public unease has found expression in a media trend known as “street interviews,” which simultaneously spread intolerance and misinformation regarding Turkey’s Syrian refugee population. By way of context, the Turkish government has cracked down on conventional media over the past decade and a half, giving loyal media a monopoly on information and pushing Turkish citizens to seek alternative sources of news. Creative new initiatives have emerged as a result, some anchored in social media, and while these can fill gaps and contribute in meaningful ways, some, such as street interviews, are quasi-journalistic and can disseminate dangerous messages. If the Turkish government does not ease its hold over the media, other such trends will likely persist and continue shaping public opinion, hurting chiefly Turkey’s vulnerable Syrian population.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Refugees, Discrimination, Syrian War, and Hate Speech
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

361. Disaster Dynamics: Assessing Middle East Responses to the Turkey-Syria Earthquake and Other Destructive Events

Author:: Sarah Cahn and Erik Yavorsky
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The massive earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria as of February 28—one of the worst Middle East natural disasters in recent memory—has touched the hearts of leaders and peoples across the world, triggering a flow of urgently needed humanitarian support. Regional states, too, have provided rescue and relief assistance. From the outset, however, politics has played an important role in shaping the scope and direction of such aid. In fact, the politics of humanitarian aid follows a pattern discernible based on previous regional responses to crises, including the 2020 Beirut port explosion and—before it—the 2014 Gaza war.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Foreign Aid, and Earthquake
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

362. Iran’s Nuclear Endgame Warrants a Change in U.S. Strategy

Author:: Michael Singh
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recently, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency discovered that Iran had enriched uranium to a level just shy of what is generally considered weapons grade. Like many findings before it, this revelation underscores the need for a new U.S. and European policy toward Iran. The two most important and immediate steps in that process are clear by this point: Washington and its partners need to move on from any remaining plans they might have to resurrect the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), namely by activating that accord’s “snapback” mechanism; and governments must heighten their efforts to deter Iran through credible threats of military force.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

363. Striking Back: Iran and the Rise of Asymmetric Drone Warfare in the Middle East

Author:: Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr.
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iranian drone strikes, as exemplified by the September 2019 attack against Saudi Aramco facilities, have jolted Middle East leaders and revealed Tehran’s long-range precision strike capabilities. The regime’s large and growing drone force, which can be used for reconnaissance or strike missions, now poses an existential threat to the Gulf states and a direct threat to Israel, as does its formidable missile force. Moreover, Iranian drones transferred to Russia have had a significant impact on Moscow’s war against Ukraine. In the bigger picture, advances in drone technology have produced an inflection point in aerial warfare—comparable to the introduction of manned flight more than a century ago—that has ended the guarantee of U.S. air superiority over its forces and bases. Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. explores the contours and consequences of Iran’s drone activities in this timely Policy Note. To counter the Islamic Republic, the former CENTCOM commander recommends an approach centered on clearer U.S. communication about its goals for the region, tighter collaboration with partners and allies, and enhanced efforts to counter Iran’s drone fleet, along with its ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Drones, Military, and Asymmetric Warfare
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

364. Turkey’s Growing Ukrainian and Russian Communities

Author:: Sude Akgundogdu and Collin Trissel
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since the 1990s, Turkey has become a major destination for tourists and migrants from Ukraine, Russia, and other former Soviet states. Yet Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine set into motion an even greater wave of migrants from both countries. Those fleeing the crisis have used myriad channels to enter and remain in Turkey, from obtaining “golden visas” to applying for protection. Going forward, their presence could have a sizable effect on future socioeconomic ties between the three countries.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Middle East

365. After the February 6 Earthquakes: A Critical Overview of the Legal and Administrative Framework

Author:: Akif Burak Atlar
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This brief assesses urban vulnerability to earthquake risk in relation to legal and administrative interventions that have occurred on building supervision, zoning amnesties and emergency management since the August 17, 1999 earthquake, and offers policy recommendations to reduce this vulnerability.
Topic:: Natural Disasters, Governance, Sustainability, and Earthquake
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

366. Society and State in Turkey Between Two Disasters

Author:: Ulaş Bayraktar
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This brief assesses the responses of the central government, municipalities, civil society organisations and grassroots communities in the aftermath of the 1999 and 2023 earthquakes in the context of the changes in Turkey’s political and administrative life between these two crises.
Topic:: Civil Society, Natural Disasters, Governance, Sustainability, and Earthquake
Political Geography:: Turkey

367. The Responsibility of Business to Respect Human Rights

Author:: Özlem Zıngıl
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This brief provides a frame of reference and recommendations on the responsibility of business to respect human rights, based on the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights and current examples.
Topic:: Human Rights, United Nations, Business, Accountability, Transparency, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

368. The Impact of Digital Policy Tools on Local Democracy

Author:: Itır Akdoğan
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This brief analyses how the digital policy tool My Purple Map, developed by TESEV in cooperation with UN Women Turkey and Eskişehir Metropolitan Municipality, has impacted a local government and puts forward a number of recommendations as to how this impact can be further broadened for a stronger local democracy.
Topic:: United Nations, Democracy, Inequality, Digital Policy, and Gender
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

369. Budget Brief: Pradhan Mantri Poshan Shakti Nirman

Author:: Avani Kapur, Sharad Pandey, and Madhur Sharma
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: The National Programme of PM POSHAN, previously known as the National Scheme for Mid-Day Meals in schools (MDM), is a scheme to provide one hot cooked meal in government and government-aided schools, with an aim to improve the nutritional status of students. This brief reports on trends for PM POSHAN performance along the following parameters: ■ Past trends in allocations, releases, and utilisation; ■ Coverage and provision of meals to students; and ■ Management Information System (MIS) and Automated Monitoring System (AMS).
Topic:: Education, Budget, and Students
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

370. Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana and Janani Suraksha Yojana

Author:: Avani Kapur, Tanya Rana, and Jenny Susan John
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: This brief reports on two maternity benefit schemes of the Government of India (GoI): a) Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY) provides partial wage compensation to improve health-seeking behaviour of pregnant women and lactating mothers for two live births; and b) Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) incentivises institutional and safe delivery for reducing infant and maternal mortality. Using government data, this brief reports on: ■ Trends in finances; ■ Coverage and payments; and ■ Outcomes
Topic:: Public Policy, Public Health, Public Benefits, and Maternity
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

371. Budget Brief: Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme

Author:: Ria Kasliwal, Mridusmita Bordoloi, and Avani Kapur
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) is Government of India’s (GoI’s) flagship scheme to provide at least 100 days of guaranteed wage employment in a financial year to every rural household that demands work. Using government reported data, this brief reports on the trends for: ■ Allocations, releases, and expenditures; ■ Paid wages and delayed compensations; and ■ Employment demanded and provided
Topic:: Employment, Public Policy, and Rural
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

372. Budget Brief: Mission Saksham Anganwadi and Poshan 2.0

Author:: Avani Kapur, Tanya Rana, and Ritwik Shukla
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: In Financial Year (FY) 2021-22, the Government of India (GoI) restructured the Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS), POSHAN (Prime Minister’s Overarching Scheme for Holistic Nourishment) Abhiyaan, and the Scheme for Adolescent Girls (SAG) into Mission Saksham Anganwadi and Poshan 2.0, also known as Poshan 2.0. This brief uses government data to analyse: ■ Required funds, allocations, and releases; ■ Governance, including human resources; ■ Changes in coverage; and ■ Outcomes
Topic:: Governance, Budget, Public Policy, Human Resources, and Child Development
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

373. A Framework for Action for the Responsibility to Protect: A Resource for States

Author:: Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: The Responsibility to Protect populations from genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing has emerged as an important global principle since the adoption of the UN World Summit Outcome Document in 2005. Since the conception of R2P, individual states and regional organizations, the UN, civil society, and experts around the world have worked to establish what implementation of R2P and the prevention of mass atrocity crimes means in practice. The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect and the Asia-Pacific Centre for the Responsibility to Protect have developed a guide for states on steps to take to protect populations from atrocity crimes, at home and abroad. “A Framework for Action for the Responsibility to Protect: A Resource for States” consolidates and builds upon existing expertise from published works and best practice from states, regional organizations and the UN on how to prevent and respond to atrocity crimes. We encourage all states to utilize this framework to assess gaps and identify opportunities to address atrocity risks in their own countries, as well as to understand options available for responding to risks in their region and around the world.
Topic:: International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

374. Future-proofing EU security and defence cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Dylan Macchiarini Crosson, Stefania Benaglia, and Linus Vermeulen
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Russia’s war against Ukraine has led policymakers to re-prioritise the European security architecture and the EU’s neighbourhood, including a positive reassessment of NATO’s role as a reliable security provider. As the transatlantic relationship and the Indo-Pacific are inherently intertwined, this once again highlights the imperative of the EU making the Indo-Pacific a strategic priority. This presents the EU with an opportunity to project its values, interests and power, though hampered at present by political infighting and the mushrooming of conflicts in and around Europe. Still, the time has come for the EU to assess how it should adjust its approach to Indo-Pacific security. How can the EU effectively strike a balance in security and defence cooperation with partners to uphold key principles of international law and order without endorsing the idea that ‘might makes right’ in the Indo-Pacific?
Topic:: Security, NATO, International Cooperation, International Law, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe and Indo-Pacific

375. What should the EU do about violent extremism?

Author:: Dylan Macchiarini Crosson, Tatjana Stankovic, Pernille Rieker, and Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Despite a recent spike in concern about a resurgence in great power conflict, addressing terrorism and violent extremism has driven the foreign policy debate in the collective West for the better part of two decades since 9/11. In the European Union, these concerns most prominently emerged in the 2003 European Security Strategy (ESS) that identified terrorism and “violent religious extremism” originating in the EU’s neighbourhood and caused by weak institutions, conflict, and state failure as a primary concern. The crux of the matter, however, is how this increased attention translates in policy terms. In other words, is the EU’s chosen CT-P/CVE policy mix balanced and fit for purpose? First, the EU’s CT-P/CVE action can hardly be framed according to a binary security versus democracy logic because of the significant emphasis placed by the EU on socio-economic development to address the structural causes of violent extremism. Second, despite the EU’s developmental focus, the language of good governance and peacebuilding, as well as funding for these areas, are key elements missing from the EU’s engagement. In order to remedy the many upstream and downstream diplomatic trade-offs that EU policymakers face in tackling violent extremism, the EU must begin to frame CT-P/CVE as part of its wider endeavour to support sustainable peace. It can do this by formulating an EU Agenda for Peace that once again underlines the EU’s commitment to promoting inclusive governance, community resilience, and social justice.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe

376. Playing the Long Game in the South China Sea

Author:: Andrew Mantong
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: In the South China Sea (SCS), as indeed the wider Indo-Pacific, the EU is facing a deepening strategic rivalry between China and the US. In the SCS, China has been able to create physical realities in defiance of international law by constructing artificial islands in the attempt to sustain its claims to the disputed Spratly and Paracel archipelagos as well as expand its military projection deep into international waters. The US is still the predominant security player in the Indo-Pacific, but its military presence has an increasingly hard time shoring up American power in the SCS. The security dilemma between the great powers is threatening rules-based multilateralism, which runs deep in the veins of the EU and to a great extent defines its international posture.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, International Law, European Union, Multilateralism, and ASEAN
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, Indo-Pacific, and South China Sea

377. Patchwork procurement? How to bridge parallel initiatives in EU joint defence procurement

Author:: Cédric Lombaerts and Lucrezia Sala
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The EU’s defence-industrial base was conceived during peacetime and, because of the ensuing market fragmentation, does not seem fit for purpose to deal with wartime. In an attempt to remedy this, the EU launched several parallel joint defence procurement initiatives (EDIRPA, EDIP, the three-track approach under the European Peace Facility). Between these initiatives, it is easy to lose sight of the forest in the trees of joint procurement. How do these parallel tracks of procurement tie in together? Are they not fragmenting collaborative procurement efforts even further? This CEPS Policy Brief sheds clarity on the interplay between these initiatives and suggests four pragmatic paths towards an overarching joint defence procurement framework while playing into the most salient deadlocks in joint defence procurement today.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, and Procurement
Political Geography:: Europe

378. Evaluating The Social and Economic Consequences of Global Warming On African Women

Author:: Eyesiere-Hope Essien
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: By Eyesiere-Hope Essien of the Climate Change Working Group Global warming is significantly impacting developing countries and the effects are far-reaching which is having a devastating impact on African women and their communities, leading to adverse social and economic consequences. Climate change has resulted in an increase in temperature, more extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and a decrease in water availability. As a result, African women are facing a growing number of challenges related to food insecurity, water scarcity, and healthcare access. They are at greater risk of poverty, displacement, and exploitation. These issues can be further exacerbated by a lack of access to education and employment opportunities. It is essential to understand the nature of these impacts and to take action to mitigate them and ensure African women have the resources and skills to adapt to the changing environment.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Health, Water, Women, and Food Security
Political Geography:: Africa

379. Climate Change in Africa: What we know, what we don't, and where we should go from here

Author:: Eyesiere-Hope Essien and Lisa Jené
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: Climate change is taking a toll across the African continent. While the world is increasingly recognizing the various ways in which climate change is negatively impacting African communities—from decreased agricultural productivity to increased incidence of natural disasters and even to heightened conflict—there remains much we as a global community do not fully understand.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Conflict, and Productivity
Political Geography:: Africa

380. Can Alternative Sequencing of Actions Break the Deadlock in Implementing the Agreement on the Path to Normalization between Kosovo and Serbia?

Author:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Publication Date:: 11-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The dispute between Kosovo and Serbia remains a major challenge to the security, stability, and prosperity of the entire Western Balkans region. In particular, the Banjska terrorist attack carried out by Serb militants against the Kosovo Police on September 24, 2023 (with the support from Serbia’s state apparatus, as per the investigation of Kosovar authorities) underscores the pressing need for a sustainable resolution to the ongoing dispute between Kosovo and Serbia. The most promising path toward such a resolution lies in the full implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization of Relations between Kosovo and Serbia (APN), which was verbally agreed in Brussels in February 2023, because the Serbian President Vucic refused to sign it.
Topic:: Security, Political stability, Normalization, and Disputes
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

381. Has Kosovo understood the Sexual Integrity of Women?

Author:: Blenda Asllani
Publication Date:: 09-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The sexual integrity of women means their right to own and have full control over their bodies without any form of violence or coercion. Kosovo, like many countries in the world, has faced significant challenges in ensuring and fully respecting the sexual integrity of women. One of the most frequent forms of violation of the sexual integrity of women is sexual violence: sexual harassment, sexual assault, and rape. According to the database of the QIKA organization, from 2019 to 2022, 257 women reported that they were sexually assaulted and another 231 reported sexual harassment to the Kosovo Police. Violation of sexual integrity in Kosovo has not excluded even minor girls, where we recall the case of the rape of an 11-year-old girl by a group of 5 adult men in August, 2022. The recent data from the Information System of the Kosovo Police is a sobering reminder of the gravity of this situation: from January to May 2023, there have been 42 committed and 4 attempted rape cases. As Kosovo progresses towards enhanced national development and global integration, addressing sexual violence becomes crucial not just for individual well-being, but also as a fundamental matter of human rights, gender equality, public safety, and social cohesion.
Topic:: Human Rights, Women, Sexual Violence, Police, and Gender
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

382. Kosovo's Take on Cybersecurity

Author:: Vesa Kroci
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: In 2014, there was a notable surge in cybercrimes in Kosovo. The advancement and widespread adoption of technology during this period brought about a more pronounced occurrence of cyber-related offenses. Fadil Avdyli, the head of the Cybercrime Investigation Sector in the Kosovo Police, reported that eight individuals were apprehended in 2012, eleven in 2013, and seven in 2014. The rising cyberattacks in Kosovo provided an impetus to build a new policy framework dealing with cyber security, resulting with the adoption by the Kosovo government of the National Cyber Security Strategy and Action Plan 2016 – 2019. Program of the Kosovo Government 2021-2025 notes that “cyber security is a growing problem, we will engage in professional capacity building for the prevention of cyber-attacks, completion of the legal framework and modernization of cyber protection equipment”. The Kosovo Security Strategy 2022-2027, puts significant relevance to strengthening cyber security capacities of Kosovo and notes that the government “will invest in the field of cybersecurity, critical infrastructure, innovation and technology and capacity-building”. The strategy also includes the Global Cybersecurity Index as an impact indicator, but Kosovo has not been included. In 2023 Kosovo Assembly adopted Law No. 08/L-173 on Cyber Security, which among others, foresees the establishment of the Cyber Security Agency as well as partially transposes Directive (EU) 2013/40 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 12 August 2013 on attacks against information systems.
Topic:: Security, Crime, Science and Technology, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

383. What is Kosovo’s position in regional security cooperation?

Author:: Dorjeta Rukiqi
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Regional Cooperation is central to stability of the Western Balkans (WB), which is also recognized by the European Union (EU), and it is a key condition in the European integration process of all six countries of the region. Regional cooperation is included in different chapters of the acquis, including chapters 23 and 24 of the acquis. For Kosovo, regional cooperation is part of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU, which constitutes a contractual obligation. In the context of the European integration, the main platform for regional cooperation has been the Berlin Process, launched in 2014 and Kosovo has actively participated in this platform. In 2012, in the context of the normalization dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, the parties agreed with the so-called ‘’footnote agreement’’ which is meant to facilitate participation of Kosovo in regional cooperation initiative. However, the agreement is seen as controversial in Kosovo, and the country faces challenges to fully participate and integrate in regional cooperation initiatives. Of particular relevance for Kosovo in regional cooperation, is security. Kosovo's representation in regional security cooperation initiatives is limited, and often facilitated by organizations like NATO, EULEX, and UNMIK. In addition to the political hurdles for participation and integration in regional security cooperation initiatives, even in those organizations or initiatives that it has managed to secure membership, Kosovo is often under represented, particularly in leadership roles. For instance a study from 2021 shows that only nine percent of staff in regional organizations hailed from Kosovo. Consequently, despite being part of multiple regional security cooperation initiatives, Kosovo's position remains unequal compared to other member states of the WB.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Political stability, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

384. Policy Brief on Women's Agency and Working Environment in the Security Sector

Author:: Dea Fetiu and Dorjeta Rukiqi
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The primary aim of the current research is twofold. Firstly, we aim to measure the agency of women within the security sector and evaluate the extent to which it is inclusive and accommodating towards a gender perspective. Secondly, our research focuses on evaluating the capacity of institutions within the security sector to address gender-specific challenges and to use gender lens within the security sector. Main findings of this report are: -The low application rates of women to join security institutions, primarily stems from the perception that this field is predominantly for men. This perception affects women working in the sector who encounter a patriarchal mentality undermining their knowledge and expertise compared to their men counterparts. Moreover, women often confront the pressure to conform to societal expectations, compromising their personal freedoms and authentic selves; -Women in the security sector are underrepresented in managerial positions and their ambition to pursue leadership roles is harmed by prejudice and perceived gender roles. The undervaluing and differential treatment of women within the security sector hinders their ambitions and self-esteem, leading to a belief that they are unfit for managerial positions. Moreover, gendered domestic responsibilities create substantial barriers for women in attaining managerial positions and assuming increased responsibilities within the security sector, hindering their career progression; This role significantly hinders women's ability to pursue extensive training programs necessary for career advancement, particularly in the military. -There is a trend of underreporting when it comes to bullying, harassment, or discrimination cases among women in the security sector. As this was described as lack of ‘’reporting culture’’, it refers to the discouraging atmosphere that deters women from coming forward and reporting such incidents. As well as reporting mechanisms are perceived as non-confidential. -There is reluctance to address issues of gender equality in Kosovo Police (KP), while there is continouos request from civil society organizations to cooperate and share data and insights regarding womens’ position and gendered working environment in KP.
Topic:: Security, Women, Representation, Institutions, Gender, and Work
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

385. Is the Law Interception of Electronic Communications in Kosovo, working?

Author:: Ramadan Ilazi
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Against the background of increasing concerns among the public of potential abuses with the interception of telecommunication and violation of citizens’ rights and privacy, in 2015, Kosovo Assembly adopted the Law No. 05/L-030 on Interception of Electronic Communications. Base on the first part of the law it purpose is to regulate “the procedures and conditions for interception of electronic communications carried out for criminal procedure needs by state institutions established by law, and procedures and conditions of interception for security needs of the Republic of Kosovo and its citizens established by Law.” Furthermore, the law establishes rules, obligations, and authorizations both for the private sector, including the network operators and service providers as well as the public sector, including state institutions. The law places significant emphasis on protection of privacy and human rights in the framework of interception of electronic communication. However, implementation in practice of the new law has been a challenge.
Topic:: Security, Communications, Law Enforcement, Privacy, Surveillance, and Telecommunications
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

386. How the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation IF IMPLEMENTED changes relations between Kosovo and Serbia?

Author:: Ramadan Ilazi and Adelina Hasani
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: • The Agreement on the Path to Normalisation between Kosovo and Serbia (APN), creates a possibility for a new state of relations between the two countries, albeit a new status-quo. Through the APN Serbia practically recognizes statehood attributes of Kosovo, by accepting national symbols, as well as the obligation to respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Kosovo, and treat Kosovo on the basis of the principles of the Charter of the United Nations (UN), and the Treaty of the European Union (TEU). The APN also makes Kosovo and Serbia responsible to preserve the peace and “contribute to fruitful regional co-operation and security in Europe”. • The new state of relations (new status-quo), is dependent upon effective implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation. Without effective implementation, the APN becomes another conflict management tool, rather than an instrument for affirmative normalization of relations. The current trends are not optimistic for implementation and suggest that both parties, especially in Serbia, are focused on undermining the APN and its impact; • The Agreement on the Path to Normalisation between Kosovo and Serbia, while introduces significant affirmative changes in the Kosovo-Serbia relations – if implemented – it also includes elements that can potentially create legal and political hurdles for the Kosovo government. The APN marks the first time, that a Kosovo government accepts Serbia’s position on the status question. The preamble of the APN includes the following sentence: “[…] without prejudice to the different view of the Parties on fundamental questions, including on status questions”, but there is not reference to the ICJ advisory opinion on the declaration of independence of Kosovo. Based on the precedents set by previous agreements/arrangements between Kosovo and Serbia in the framework of the EU-facilitated normalization dialogue, whenever the phrasing “without prejudice to the status” was used, a reference to the ICJ advisory opinion on declaration of independence was also included; • The Agreement on the Path to Normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia has been welcomed by the European Council, which marks the first time that all 27 Member States of the European Union (EU) have endorsed an agreement from the normalization dialogue. The European Council conclusions note that APN puts “the relationship between both parties on a new and sustainable basis as a historic chance that should be seized by both parties” and urges implementation • In other words, if the optimistic scenario of all five recognizing Kosovo fails, then Spain and Cyprus should move towards the current Greek position on Kosovo, while Greece itself, alongside Slovakia and Romania, should move to formal recognition. In Kosovo there are concerns about the position of Romania, which is seen as moving further away from constructive engagement with Kosovo and recognition and closer to the position of Spain. • The role of the European Union (EU) as a facilitator in the dialogue for normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, has arguably evolved into an arbiter, as a result of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization (APN), and the implementation roadmap. This means that for Kosovo and Serbia implementation of the provisions from the APN is a contractual obligation towards the EU in the framework of the European integration process. This arrangement was necessitated by the refusal of Serbia to sign the APN, although it agreed to it verbally. In this context, when neither side has signed the APN, the role of EU as an arbiter is a must, in order to guarantee implementation by both countries. • The transparency of the process of the dialogue for normalization of relations with Serbia has declined in Kosovo. The Kosovo government has limited its reporting on the normalization dialogue both to the public as well as to the Kosovo Assembly. In addition to this, Kosovo government has acted against previous precedents of asking the Kosovo Assembly for consent when accepting a high-level agreement with Serbia, such as the case from 2013 with the “First agreement of principles governing the normalization of relations”. • The implementation annex to the Agreement on the Path to Normalisation of relations between Kosovo and Serbia agreed in Ohrid in March, is vague, and lacks concrete measures to ensure implementation of the agreement, including sequencing of actions.
Topic:: Security, Sovereignty, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Regional Security
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

387. Is a compulsory military service feasible for Kosovo?

Author:: Gramos Sejdiu
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: During the general elections of February, 2021 in Kosovo, one of the commitments of the “Vetëvendosje!” (VV) party was to introduce a national conscription model based on 3+3 months of service. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, coupled with increasing tension with Serbia, who maintains very close ties with Russia, has brought the conscription model into spotlight in Kosovo. However, as the country aspires membership in NATO, the transition from a professional military force into the conscription model could potentially undermine that process. Currently, there are 13 countries in Europe that apply the conscription-based model for the armed forces, each facing different challenges with the system. According to the media reportings, it seems that Kosovo’s approach is based on the models of Switzerland, Israel and Norway. However, it is clear that while Kosovo can learn a lot from other countries, it needs to develop its own approach and model to conscription, and in this context certain social, political and economic aspects should be considered. In order to accommodate changing mission profiles and lowering military expenditures, European armies have been reduced in size, lessening the need for recruits. Despite the war in Ukraine, armies across Europe have focused on modernization and international cooperation such as NATO for national security guarantees. Due to the evolving modernization of army equipment, armed forces “require increasingly higher training standards”. As a result, several nations have shifted towards professional armies in an effort to standardize their militaries and improve overall operational preparedness.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Conscription, and Military
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

388. Maximising the impact of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP)

Author:: Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: This briefing assesses South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP). It acknowledges programme achievements while addressing challenges, including delays to the procurement process and financial issues facing REIPPPP projects. It underscores the necessity for electricity industry reform and more cohesive energy policies. It proposes changes to how investment decisions are made, and collaboration occurs alongside the REIPPPP process to promote private sector investment, develop localisation within the REIPPPP and reduce supply chain vulnerabilities. Lastly, it provides a thorough analysis to inform recommendations that will maximise REIPPPP’s role in realising South Africa’s energy objectives.
Topic:: Reform, Finance, Investment, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Procurement
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

389. Strategies to future-proof Zambia: Debt relief and beyond

Author:: Vincent Obisie-Orlu
Publication Date:: 07-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Debt relief negotiations are currently taking place, with Zambia expected to be the first country to receive debt relief under the newly created G20 Common Framework. However, the process faces challenges, with China and the United States trading accusations of impeding the process. Some of Zambia's creditors have also been unwilling to agree to write off some of the country's debt. Positively, innovative approaches to debt relief have been proposed that would support Zambia's net-zero ambitions and promote sustainable development, such as debt for nature swaps. The integration of Zambia into the European Union's Critical Minerals framework could further support and assist Zambia in attaining a deal. Without a deal, Zambia risks being plunged into further macroeconomic uncertainty at a time when the country needs investment to capitalise on opportunities presented by political stability and structurally higher prices for copper and other critical minerals with which Zambi a is endowed.
Topic:: Debt, Development, Natural Resources, Political stability, Mining, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

390. Enhancing political accountability in South Africa

Author:: Pranish Desai and Mxolisi Zondo
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Enshrined in the founding provisions of South Africa’s democratic constitution is the commitment to a “multi-party system of democratic government, to ensure accountability, responsiveness and openness”.1 Today, South Africa is entering a new form of multiparty governance through the emergence of coalition governments in municipalities across the country. Following the Constitutional Court’s June 2020 decision to strike down parts of the Electoral Act of 1998, there have also been critical discussions about whether our national and provincial electoral framework of proportional representation fosters the accountability and responsiveness to which our constitution aspires.2 Both the nascent era of widespread coalition governance and the debate over electoral reform occur while the confidence that citizens have in our democracy is depreciating. In order to revive South Africans’ belief in our democratic system, we must renew that system to improve accountability. Many of the policy proposals that Good Governance Africa (GGA) considers in this briefing already exist,3 but we evaluate them in specific relation to how they can deepen political accountability in South Africa. The upshot is that a shift in approach from our institutions, political parties, civil society and citizens themselves is required.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Accountability, Social Contract, and Coalition
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

391. Financing Women, Peace and Security: A Review of WPS National Action Plans from 2005 to 2022

Author:: Our Secure Future
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: This publication is a policy brief accompanying an upcoming in-depth report on financing Women, Peace and Security (WPS) National Action Plans (NAP). This brief provides an overview of WPS NAPs, as well as the current state of funding for WPS NAP implementation, and a breakdown of this data by region. Stay tuned for the upcoming report to learn more about financing WPS NAPs. Key Findings: • As of early 2023, 31 countries out of 101 have estimated the amount of money required to implement WPS NAP activities. Available information does not illuminate whether these funds are secured. • More than 50 WPS NAPs out of 101 mention that a budget is needed to implement WPS activities, but do not include specification of funding. • The majority of WPS NAPs with budget estimates identify responsible parties for activity implementation, including ministries and/or government institutions, predominantly related to foreign affairs and gender equality.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Budget, Women, Finance, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

392. Internal Control in Intelligence Services

Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: First, a lack of effective internal control prevents external oversight bodies, such as parliamentary committees, from fulfilling their role effectively. Intelligence service managers play a crucial role in facilitating scrutiny by oversight bodies not only by ensuring that major infractions are reported to the appropriate authority, but also by creating an environment that encourages cooperation with oversight bodies. Second, while transparency is essential to maintaining democratic control of government, intelligence services require a significant degree of secrecy to be effective. Consequently, intelligence services are subject to highly restricted oversight, unlike other public institutions. Effective internal control is therefore essential to rectify this inherent (and unavoidable) imbalance by ensuring that the day-to-day work of intelligence services is carried out in accordance with the law and with respect for human rights. Third, to avoid undue influence and ensure independent, objective analysis, intelligence services must retain a degree of autonomy from the executive. Executive control over intelligence services is therefore sometimes less pronounced, meaning that effective internal control is vital to ensuring intelligence services act within the rule of law. For the above reasons, intelligence services should be subject to both effective oversight and internal control. This Thematic Brief addresses the latter by examining internal control systems used in Euro-Atlantic countries.
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

393. Developments in Kazakhstan 2022: Causes and Consequences

Author:: Yurii Poita
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: In January 2022, mass protests arose in Kazakhstan due to an increase in gas prices for cars, which instantly covered almost the entire country. From the initial demands of the demonstrators in Zhanaozen in the southwest of the country they quickly transformed into anti-government ones: the protesters demanded the resignation of the government, a change in the current political regime and the departure of the first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. The willingness of the Kazakh authorities to make concessions and satisfy part of the demands did not stop the protests: they expanded significantly both quantitatively and geographically and in a short time the protest was marginalized and transformed into pogroms and looting, especially in the city of Almaty in southern Kazakhstan.
Topic:: Governance, Social Movement, Protests, and Repression
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and Asia

394. Quo Vadis, Belarus?

Author:: Zoran Meter
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: Year 2021 was one of the most turbulent for Belarus since its independence after the collapse of the USSR. In the West Belarus is sometimes called the “European North the global economic crisis in 2008 without too many problems and internal turmoil. Belarus has also successfully overcome problems with its neighbor the Russian Federation caused by Korea” and its longtime president Alexander Lukashenko, whom the West no longer recognizes, is dubbed “Europe’s Last Dictator.” Although this country is still to a large extent dug in its communist past, it has overcome disputes related to the content and dynamics of the implementation of the establishment of a Federal State between Belarus and Russia to which they previously committed.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, Leadership, Dictatorship, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Belarus

395. KDP and PUK in Sadir’s Chess Game

Author:: Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
Abstract:: Muqtada Al-Sadir, the Shiite Cleric Grandmaster, is playing to win; whatever the expense. In the build-up to the game, the Sunnis got their act together and seized the opportunity to become the main winners of the first round. However, the Kurds entered the fight on one leg, lost sight of the bigger picture and intensified their internal power rivalry. This has already proven costly for the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), and if they keep on as they started, the second round will be even dearer. Fortunately, it is not too late to minimise their losses or even end up winning future rounds. To do this, they need to take into account the complex power dynamics within not just the Shiite component of Iraq (Shiite House), but also the Shiite ‘Universe’ inside and outside Iraq.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

396. Inclusion of Women in the FY22 NDAA (P.L. 117-81)

Author:: Hans Hogrefe, Sahana Dharmapuri, and Cassandra Zavislak
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Our Secure Future
Abstract:: Congress is currently discussing the inclusion of women in the current NDAA. Read our brief summary of specific references to the inclusion of women in the National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2022 (NDAA, P.L. 117-81). The NDAA emphasizes attention to sexual and gender based violence in the U.S. military and creates a pilot program to assess barriers to women’s participation in partner nation defense and security forces based on the WPS Act. The FY22 NDAA is making some important changes to the implementation of the Women, Peace and Security Act (P.L. 115-68): Requires Congressional briefing on the implementation status of the recommendations set forth in the report of the Independent Review Commission on Sexual Assault in the Military. Improves prosecution on how sexual harassment and assault within the U.S. military. Establishes WPS pilot program to support the implementation of the WPS Act of 2017. Requires a study of US Security Cooperation Programs focused on Afghanistan in accordance with the WPS Act of 2017 Requires DEI data collection Authorizes professional development
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Women, Sexual Violence, Inclusion, and WPS
Political Geography:: United States of America

397. Policy Papers by Women of Color: Decolonizing International Development

Author:: Tamara White, Aisha White, Gabrielle B. Gueye, Daniet Moges, and Eliza Gueye
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security and Conflict Transformation (WCAPS)
Abstract:: This series explores a handful of scenarios where colonial legacies surface in international development and humanitarian aid work, from staffing and institution building to food aid and global tourism. Exploring these topics and seeking to deconstruct the systems and structures that impede success in development and humanitarian efforts is critically important in ensuring that we ultimately meet global goals and restore integrity to our sector. Many believe international development and humanitarian aid are irreconcilable and that this work is an extension of colonialism, but our constituency believes that there is hope in transforming the sector and shifting power to those who should rightfully own this work and reap the benefits of development.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Tourism, Culture, Neoliberalism, Decolonization, Institutions, COVID-19, and Food Assistance
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

398. Australia’s semiconductor national moonshot

Author:: Alex Capri and Robert Clark
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Australia has recently been forced to cross a Rubicon. Its wholehearted embrace of global free trade and just-in-time supply chains has had to confront the hard reality of geopolitics. In many parts of the world, geopolitics is choking free trade, and China—Australia’s largest trading partner—has shown itself particularly willing to use trade coercively and abrogate its free trade commitments, not just with Australia, but with countries all around the world. Advanced technologies are at the centre of this geopolitical struggle, because of the risk that withheld supply poses to national economies and security. As Covid-19 disruptions have demonstrated, the risks are not even limited to deliberate coercion. In this environment, bold action is warranted. Continuing to do what we did before is not an option because it will undermine the national interest. A new approach is needed that’s in part heretical to our old market-based approach but is driven by necessity: government intervention that works in tandem with industry expertise and drive. In this important policy brief, Alex Capri and Robert Clark lay out a vision for Australia to secure its place in the global semiconductor industry—an industry they describe as ‘the single most important technology underlying leading-edge industries’. Their proposal is to stimulate A$5 billion of semiconductor manufacturing activity through A$1.5 billion of government investment and financial incentives. Those subsidies and tax concessions would mirror similar initiatives such as the US ‘CHIPS’ and ‘FABS’ Acts, but are focused on Australia’s interests. They identify a logical niche for Australia that would initially establish a distributed commercial compound semiconductor foundry capability across Australia via a public–private partnership. In the longer term, they propose establishing a commercial silicon complementary metal-oxide semiconductor foundry at mature process scale. Government intervention in a market shouldn’t be made lightly, but Capri and Clark make a compelling case to do so. If policymakers agree that Australia needs access to semiconductors and that their supply from elsewhere can’t be guaranteed, then intervention is imperative. This policy brief lays out a ‘moonshot’ to get Australia there.
Topic:: Markets, Trade, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

399. The Cost of Defence: ASPI Defence Budget Brief October 2022–2023

Author:: Marcus Hellyer
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Shortly before the recent election, the previous government released a defence budget that continued its record of delivering the funding it promised in the 2016 Defence White Paper (DWP) and subsequent 2020 Defence Strategic Update (DSU). The Albanese government’s first budget was not designed to focus on Australia’s security situation or defence spending. Tasked with sharing Australia’s difficult economic situation with the Australian public, the budget has more immediate fish to fry. For those Australians who want to see increased defence spending, this was not going to be that budget as it would have directly undercut existing defence reviews due within months. Certainly, the Prime Minister has stated that the government will do whatever is necessary to ensure Australia has the defence force it needs in these strategically uncertain times. But this budget gives no indication of how much the government is willing to spend to do that. With the Defence Strategic Review (DSR) under Stephen Smith and Angus Houston conducting its work and not due to report until March next year, the government has stuck with the existing funding line it inherited from its predecessor. That’s an artefact of the 2016 Defence White Paper—a document developed in a different era and quickly overtaken by events. So Defence is in a holding pattern while the government keeps its powder dry and waits for Smith and Houston (noting their interim report has recently been handed to the government). No doubt it has had conversations with the DSR leads indicating its comfort zone for additional spending, but that hasn’t been made public. What we can say from the information set out in this budget is that any increase to defence spending will require difficult reprioritisation. While the government received a revenue windfall this year due to high commodity prices, those are forecast to return to normal. And with the government committing to deliver the tax cuts agreed by its predecessor, its income is under further pressure. At the same time, it’s facing five growing spending pressures: interest on the growing debt, the National Disability Insurance Scheme, health care, aged care, and defence—and that’s before any increase to the existing defence funding line. The result is a forecast for deficit spending for the next 10 years. That’s not a good situation for the DSR leads. They’re tasked with delivering new military acquisitions faster in the next decade, but the existing acquisition plan is probably already unaffordable (without increased spending), with many entirely new capabilities or expensive replacement projects. And with nuclear-powered submarines and frigates on the untouchable list, the challenge of delivering more sooner gets even harder, as those two programs will consume tens of billions of dollars over the coming decade even before they deliver their first vessels. Moreover, inflation is rapidly eroding Defence’s buying power by billions of dollars every year. By the end of the forward estimates, Defence may have lost around $18 billion in buying power even if inflation rapidly returns to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target rate. That’s the budget papers’ predictions, but those predictions haven’t been very accurate in recent years. This year, despite nominal growth of over 7% in defence spending, real growth is under 1% once inflation is taken into account (although, with inflation difficult to predict, it’s also difficult to reliably quantify real growth). It’s hard to see Defence affording its ambitious acquisition program with a budget that’s essentially static in real terms. Inflation is also driving nominal GDP growth at a predicted 8% this year. That means that defence spending is falling as a percentage of GDP for the second year in a row despite the government delivering the funding set out in the 2016 Defence White Paper and 2020 Defence Strategic Update. Predicted defence spending has also fallen significantly just since the March budget, from 2.11% to 1.96%, despite the funding line remaining fundamentally unchanged. In summary, there is no pot of gold available to cover increased defence spending. That doesn’t mean the government can’t or won’t increase defence spending, but any increase will require either higher taxes (which appears unlikely, since the government is proceeding with its predecessor’s planned tax cuts), greater borrowing (accelerating the vicious cycle of debts and deficits), or cuts to other priorities that have constituencies of their own. When we look at Defence’s big three areas of spending—capital acquisitions, people and sustainment—there have been no significant changes since the March budget. With the Australian dollar at a 20-year low against the US dollar, the Defence budget has received a large automatic top-up to maintain its purchasing, but there’s no adjustment to compensate for inflation. There are a few changes to spending, but they’re broadly consistent with what we would see in a mid-year budget update. For those who follow capability, the top 30 acquisition projects and sustainment products hold some interesting information, but the lists are quite consistent with previous plans. We’ll have to wait for the outcomes of the DSR to see anything new. Similarly there’s been no adjustment to Defence’s personnel allocation since March. But that still means the ADF needs to find roughly 13,000 more people this decade to operate the capabilities on its shopping list, even though it’s only managed to grow by an average of 300 per year since the 2016 White Paper. Smith and Houston may need to consider whether it makes sense to acquire capabilities that the ADF can’t crew, or at least how the ADF can maximise its combat power without many additional people. Of course, another HR strategy is one based on ‘if you build it, they will come.’ The situation is also difficult with Defence’s civilian and external workforce. To deliver its ambitious capability program, Defence has relied on growing numbers of contractors. They’ve helped Defence spend record amounts in its acquisition programs in recent years, despite the impact of Covid-19; however, they come at a cost. That growth may be over; in the October budget, the government is seeking $144.6 million in ‘savings from external labour and savings from advertising, travel and legal expenses’. That’s not a large percentage of Defence’s total budget but, if it means the organisation can’t hire the people it needs to manage the acquisition program, it’s hard to see how Defence will deliver more capability sooner. Overall, while there were no surprises, the October budget hasn’t made the job any easier for Smith and Houston.
Topic:: National Security, Budget, Economy, Industry, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

400. Terrorism in the Sahel Developments, Consequences of French Involvement and Options for European Security and Defence Policy

Author:: Naomi Moreno-Cosgrove
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: On August 15, 2022, the final contingent of Operation Barkhane crossed the border into Niger putting an end to almost a decade of French military intervention in Mali. The security void left by France in the country has now become the main means of competition between jihadist groups particularly in the tri-border area between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Violent extremism together with community conflict over the access of natural resources, inter-ethnic violence, and the increasing number of internally displaced persons (IDP) continues to spill over towards the Gulf of Guinea, through the northern areas of Togo, Benin, Ivory Coast, and Ghana. While the number of fatalities show no sign of lowering, it seems unsuitable for France and its European counterparts to entirely desist their efforts in West Africa. At a time when the withdrawal of French forces from Mali has brought upon a new spin in the region’s conflict dynamics, this paper offers insights into the future of European engagement in the Sahel. It will do so by addressing the evolution of French intervention since 2013, assessing the current developments of the Sahel crisis after French involvement in Mali, and aiming at providing several entry points whereby the shift in paradigm could turn into an opportunity for French and European security and defence policies in the region.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Counter-terrorism, and Instability
Political Geography:: North Africa and Sahel

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS