Content Type: Policy Brief / Political Geography: / Publication Year: within 5 Years

1201. The One-China Policy: Adapting to Tensions in the Taiwan Strait

Author:: James Lee
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: Tensions are growing in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese warplanes have violated Taiwan’s air defense identification zone in record numbers, prompting fears of an invasion.1 2021 was the first year in which a potential crisis over Taiwan rose to the level of a “Tier 1 risk” in the Council on Foreign Relations’ Preventive Priorities Survey, which is an annual survey of American foreign policy experts.2 The United States faces a decision about what it can do to help prevent crossstrait tensions from escalating into war. A vital question is whether, and how much, the United States should change its “One-China policy.” Beginning with the Trump administration and continuing with the Biden administration, the United States has bolstered its support for Taiwan and become more assertive in resisting Beijing’s claims of sovereignty over the self-governing democracy.3 Although U.S. officials stress that the United States continues to adhere to the One-China policy, there is growing concern, as expressed by Daniel Russel of the Asia Society Policy Institute, that the United States is “edging closer and closer to the line that separates unofficial relations with official relations, which, in effect, could hollow out America’s One-China policy.”4 How much flexibility is built into the One-China policy, and what limits does the policy impose on what the United States can do to support Taiwan? To answer those questions, this policy brief explains what the One-China policy is and how it can exhibit both continuity and change. Analysis of the One-China policy often focuses on the Three U.S.-China Joint Communiqués, the Taiwan Relations Act, and the Six Assurances, which can create the impression that the One-China policy has not changed since those texts were formulated in the 1970s and 1980s.5 In fact, the One-China policy has been revised, such as in the Taiwan Policy Review during the Clinton administration.6 The One-China policy is neither set in stone nor completely fluid, and this policy brief identifies which elements are fixed and which elements are variable. It explains the OneChina policy at three levels: the fundamental position, the doctrinal statements, and the practices and conventions. These levels of policy range from the most abstract to the most concrete, but each is logically consistent with the others.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Security, Strategic Competition, and One-China Policy
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

1202. Funding the ERP: Analysis of funding for the implementation of the Education Response Plan (ERP) for refugees and host communities

Author:: Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This paper is an analytical review of the financial performance of the Education Response Plan for refugees by the end of June 2020. This analysis gives an in-depth review of the education financing for Government of Uganda supported schools in refugee settlements in Lamwo District Local Government. The total contribution of the Government of Uganda to the actual ERP spend was USD 11.86 million (9.38%). The multilateral donors contributed most to the ERP between year 0 and year 1, with a total contribution of USD 38.69 million (31%). This paper was written by The Centre for Budget and Tax Policy.
Topic:: Education, Refugees, Public Spending, and Schools
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

1203. Negotiating Consent: Lessons in defending the right to decide

Author:: Scott A. Sellwood
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Indigenous peoples have long asserted and defended their rights and customary land tenures against the unlawful enclosure of their territories. Yet, despite normative recognition of the right to free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC)—and public commitments by major multinational companies, international financial institutions, and global banks to apply the standard of consent—power imbalances continue to undermine the quality of agreements being reached. Negotiating Consent distills lessons from Oxfam’s work defending community consent in Peru. Drawing on research published by Oxfam partners in Peru—Cooperacción, Organización Nacional de Mujeres Indígenas (ONAMIAP) and Pueblos Indígenas Amazónicas Unidas en Defensa de Sus Territorios (PUINAMUDT), which have published research examining the politics and practices of the implementation of this law—it seeks to contribute to collective thinking around ways to improve the implementation of FPIC processes, processes that are manifestly political. With land inequality worsening, land grabbing continuing unabated, and basic environmental and social protections being rolled back, upholding the standard of consent is more important than ever. It is time companies, investors, and others look beyond paper commitments and take the steps necessary to ensure quality agreements are reached with Indigenous peoples and are maintained across the life of projects.
Topic:: Security, Land Rights, Indigenous, and Land
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1204. More Local is Possible: Recommendations for enhancing local humanitarian leadership and refugee participation in the Gambella refugee response

Author:: Freddie Carver, Elizabeth Deng, and Yotam Gidron
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The Gambella region of western Ethiopia hosts over 300,000 South Sudanese refugees in seven camps. The refugee response is dominated by UN agencies and international NGOs and staffed mostly by Ethiopians from outside of Gambella, creating a gap between humanitarian actors and the people they seek to assist. In order to realize commitments to localization and refugee participation made in the Charter for Change, the Grand Bargain and the Global Compact for Refugees, it is critical for refugees and local populations to be more involved in shaping and leading the delivery of aid. This could be achieved through increasing the role played by Gambella-based NGOs, engaging with faith-based actors, facilitating diaspora initiatives and supporting the development of refugee-led organizations.
Topic:: Refugees, Leadership, Humanitarian Intervention, and Local
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

1205. The Ignored Pandemic: The Dual Crises of Gender-Based Violence and COVID-19

Author:: Rowan Harvey
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Gender Based Violence (GBV) is a global pandemic existing in all social groups across the globe, yet it has largely been ignored in the COVID-19 response and recovery plans. It is evident that the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified GBV, including domestic violence and intimate partner violence amongst other forms of violations, but the investments in GBV prevention and response are dramatically inadequate, with just 0.0002% of the overall COVID-19 response funding opportunities going into it. Barriers to achieving gender justice, such as harmful social norms, continue to exist, but progress made since the start of the 16 Days of Activism Against Gender-Based Violence Campaign show that there are solutions, and feminist activism has been a driving force for progress on eliminating gender-based violence.
Topic:: Gender Based Violence, Violence, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1206. Detention as the Default: How Greece, with the support of the EU, is generalizing administrative detention of migrants

Author:: Vasilis Papastergiou
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Putting migrants and asylum seekers into detention for administrative reasons is a common practice in Greece, despite this policy contravening human rights. Greek authorities are using detention and the new EU-funded closed compounds as a way to discourage people from seeking asylum in Europe. Detention, as outlined in Greek law, should only be used as a final resort and only then in specific instances. Detention carries with it not only a financial cost, but also a considerable moral cost. Detention without just cause violates basic human rights, such as freedom of movement, the right to health and the right to family life. Alternatives to detention exist and must be prioritized.
Topic:: Human Rights, Humanitarian Crisis, Detention, and Migrants
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

1207. Food for Thought: Investing in a sustainable food system

Author:: Marta Piazza
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The focus on profit maximization at the expense of workers, farmers, and women have helped companies reap huge profit margins in the short-term, but as COVID-19 has revealed, it has come at the cost of rights violations. Such costs are no longer considered an acceptable business risk. As human rights gains prominence in investor-company engagement, this briefing note provides information to investors about the risks of ignoring human rights impacts, evidence about the rights violations that persist in the food sector despite company action and charts a way for investors to build a resilient food system given their outsized influence.
Topic:: Economics, Business, Profit, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1208. Precarity and the Pandemic: A survey of wage issues and Covid-19 impacts amongst migrant seafood workers in Thailand

Author:: Josh Stride
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This report presents findings from an extensive survey of migrant workers in the Thai seafood industry conducted by the CSO Coalition. The report focuses on the issue of low wages, the gender pay gap and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on these issues and the workers who experience them. It also aims to develop a national discussion around the issues of a living wage and a decent living for the hardworking migrant workers who generate wealth and produce food for wealthy companies and consumers around the world.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Labor Policies, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia and Thailand

1209. Transforming the Systems that Contribute to Fragility and Humanitarian Crises: Programming across the triple nexus

Author:: Vittorio Infante
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Conflicts and shocks linked to climate change are more frequent and intense, leading to poverty and inequality, exacerbating these phenomena and people’s vulnerability. In this context, humanitarian relief, development programmes and peacebuilding are not serial processes; they are all needed at the same time to tackle the systemic inequalities that trap people in poverty and expose them to risk. The triple nexus, or programming across humanitarian-development-peace pillars, thus means creating synergies and common goals across short-term emergency response programmes and longer-term social change processes in development, as well as enhancing opportunities for peace so that individuals can enjoy the full spectrum of human rights. This briefing paper aims to identify the tensions and dilemmas that Oxfam faces when programming across the nexus and sets out new policy to address these dilemmas, building upon Oxfam’s 2019 discussion paper on the triple nexus.
Topic:: Development, Inequality, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1210. Not in This Together: How supermarkets became pandemic winners while women workers are losing out

Author:: Anouk Franck and Art Prapha
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Inequality is worsening and exploitation of women is endemic across the global economy. While inequality of power and value was already deeply unfair before the pandemic, it has now reached shocking proportions. COVID-19 has cost global workers $3.7 trillion in lost income, and women and young workers have been hardest hit, as they are often found in the most insecure and lowest-paid jobs. Few places reveal this trend more clearly than supermarket supply chains. In stark contrast to the escalating human misery brought by the pandemic, the supermarket sector has largely been the standout winner of the crisis. Senior executives, the largest institutional investors, and mostly wealthy shareholders of global supermarkets continue to be rewarded with business-as-usual high compensation and dividends. In fact, during the pandemic, publicly listed supermarkets distributed 98% of net profits to their shareholders via dividends and share buybacks. Meanwhile, workers and producers, especially women, across the globe – the people we call ‘essential’ or ‘frontline’ workers – have seen their incomes stagnate or even fall, while their rights continue to be violated.
Topic:: Inequality, Pandemic, COVID-19, Labor Rights, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1211. An African Response to COVID-19: From principled first response to just recovery

Author:: Ray Deepayan Basu
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In November 2020 Oxfam and SOAS facilitated an online high-level event to bring together African and international policy and public-health professionals to discuss their experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic, and offer insights into strategies and policies they have enacted in their respective contexts. Speakers tackled a wide range of issues, including government strategies and policies implemented, public health messaging and community engagement, varying threads of intersectionality and an honest discussion about gaps and additional support. This ‘outcomes’ paper draws out the key themes, trends and recommendations emerging from the discussions to inform a people-not-profit-centric Covid response.
Topic:: Public Health, Pandemic, Community, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

1212. Youth Wellbeing in the Occupied Palestinian Territory: An in-depth, multi-level and interdisciplinary study into wellbeing and gender equality among Palestinian youth

Author:: Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This study presents an important opportunity to fill a gap in knowledge by offering a critical understanding of the state of youth wellbeing in the Occupied Palestinian Territory through a comprehensive interdisciplinary and multi-level approach. By combining the economic, political and socio-cultural spheres and a macro (policy/institutional), meso (organizational) and micro (individual) level analysis, we can explore the root causes and complex dynamics of the processes of youth exclusion and inclusion from the labour market and civic/political life, while investigating the potentially transformative effect of youth agency. The study analyses wellbeing and gender relations for their importance, particularly in the context of the OPT, where youth are especially vulnerable and where wellbeing is threatened.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Governance, Youth, and Gender
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

1213. Still Treading Water: Reviewing six years of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism and the dire water situation in the Gaza Strip

Author:: Laila Barhoum
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Six years after the establishment of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism (GRM), people in Gaza continue to live on the brink of disaster as a result of 13 years of the Israeli blockade. The water, sanitation and health (WASH) sector remains significantly damaged, with Gaza facing the complete collapse of its wastewater treatment system. The reconstruction process is ongoing, but it is slow, costly, and hampers the humanitarian response. Six years after the establishment of the Gaza Reconstruction Mechanism (GRM), people in Gaza continue to live on the brink of disaster as a result of a 13 year blockade imposed by Israel. The water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) sector remains significantly damaged, with Gaza facing a stark deterioration of available WASH services at the community and household level. The reconstruction process is ongoing, but it is slow, costly, and hampers the humanitarian response. The COVID-19 pandemic has severely aggravated existing vulnerabilities, including access to water and sanitation. This strongly impacts the daily lives of over 2 million people living in the coastal enclave, of whom 1.5 million – or 75% – have been identified as being in need of humanitarian assistance. Oxfam has recently reviewed the challenges associated with the GRM and its impact on the WASH sector in Gaza. Its findings reveal that these challenges are an obstacle to the reconstruction of WASH infrastructure (including operation and maintenance), hindering efforts to address the increased needs of people in Gaza. Donors and UN agencies should consider the needs of people in Gaza today. Rather than continuing with the GRM, they should explore how they can improve their engagement to be able to challenge the Israeli access restrictions, work towards economic development, ensure accountability within access mechanisms, and facilitate inclusive Palestinian participation to access mechanisms and the reconstruction of Gaza.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Conflict, COVID-19, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1214. Shining a Spotlight: A critical assessment of food and beverage companies’ delivery of sustainability commitments

Author:: Emma Fawcett and Suzanne Zweben
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: From 2013 to 2016, Oxfam's Behind the Brands campaign called on the world’s 10 biggest food and beverage companies to adopt stronger social and environmental sourcing policies and spurred significant commitments on women’s empowerment, land rights and climate change. Now, as the coronavirus pandemic worsens inequality and food insecurity around the world, we assess whether the companies have taken meaningful steps to implement the commitments they made in response to the campaign. In this report we find that while companies have taken action at the global level, progress stalls in translating those approaches to countries and through supply chains. There are positive examples and innovations happening in key sourcing countries. But key blockages must be addressed – including by providing the right incentives, disclosing suppliers and supporting suppliers to take up the agenda – to create change at scale.
Topic:: Environment, Food Security, Land Rights, Supply Chains, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1215. Tipping the Scales: The role of responsibility- and solidarity-sharing in the situation on the Greek islands

Author:: Natalia-Rafaella Kafkoutsou and Spyros-Vlad Oikonomou
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This report assesses the impact of EU countries’ refusal to relocate asylum seekers on the Greek islands. It illustrates that they have consistently failed to show solidarity by not delivering on commitments to relocate people, either by refusing to participate in the first place or by not fulfilling their pledges. This has left thousands of people in need of assistance on the Greek islands. EU countries have also consistently tried to avoid their legal obligations by putting barriers in place to keep families apart.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Refugees, Asylum, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

1216. In Our Own Words: Perspectives from local actors in the Horn, East, and Central Africa

Author:: Elizabeth Deng
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Oxfam is committed to supporting the participation of local actors in humanitarian and development responses. This includes ensuring their opinions and perspectives about priorities, needs, and appropriate ways of addressing issues are part of public debate. Oxfam advocates for their presence and participation in coordination meetings and other spaces for decision-making. We also provide support to local actors to write and publish their opinions and perspectives. This paper is a compilation of eight opinion pieces written by local actors in the Horn, East, and Central Africa region, with editing and publishing support from Oxfam. The pieces were originally published by Devex, Citizen Digital, Media Congo, IPS News, African Arguments, Nile Post, and WeInformers.
Topic:: Development, Local, Humanitarian Crisis, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa

1217. The Inequality Virus: Bringing together a world torn apart by coronavirus through a fair, just and sustainable economy

Author:: Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic has the potential to lead to an increase in inequality in almost every country at once, the first time this has happened since records began. The virus has exposed, fed off and increased existing inequalities of wealth, gender and race. Over two million people have died, and hundreds of millions of people are being forced into poverty while many of the richest – individuals and corporations – are thriving. Billionaire fortunes returned to their pre-pandemic highs in just nine months, while recovery for the world’s poorest people could take over a decade. The crisis has exposed our collective frailty and the inability of our deeply unequal economy to work for all. Yet it has also shown us the vital importance of government action to protect our health and livelihoods. Transformative policies that seemed unthinkable before the crisis have suddenly been shown to be possible. There can be no return to where we were before. Instead, citizens and governments must act on the urgency to create a more equal and sustainable world.
Topic:: Governance, Inequality, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1218. United Nations Special Political Missions and Protection: A Principled Approach for Research and Policymaking

Author:: Daniel Forti
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Independent reviews are a relatively new but increasingly popular tool. Since the practice was established in 2017, there have been nineteen independent reviews of UN peace operations. These reviews have been intended to rigorously assess the strategic orientation of peace operations while providing more political credibility than UN-led review processes. But given the diverse processes and incentives that shape them, these exercises are both analytically complex and highly political. As independent reviews have gained prominence over the past five years, reflecting on the experiences of previous reviews is necessary for improving their quality, impact, and sustainability moving forward. This paper provides a comparative analysis of the nineteen independent reviews of UN peace operations conducted between 2017 and 2021 by considering emerging trends, best practices, and lessons observed. It begins by juxtaposing the emergence of independent reviews with an increasingly fractured geopolitical landscape for UN peace operations and introducing these reviews’ distinguishing features and objectives. It then analyzes how independent reviews have unfolded in practice across seven different dimensions. The paper concludes by presenting findings about the practice and future of independent reviews and developing criteria to distinguish between UN-led and independent reviews. It also offers recommendations to the UN system, member states, and independent review teams to improve the practice: The UN system should codify independent reviews within formal UN policy, consolidate best practices, clarify roles and expectations of UN staff seconded to review teams, prioritize diversity in the composition of review teams, improve reporting on independent reviews, and establish a dedicated funding stream for independent reviews. Independent review teams should emphasize their transparency and independence, build internal and external constituencies, systematize their use of diverse research methods and approaches, and embrace the support provided by “red teams.” Member states should treat independent reviews as exceptional instead of standard, debrief team leaders following the submission of an independent review, request a formal briefing on strategic reviews and assessments, strengthen reporting requirements on the implementation of review recommendations, and provide ample time for conducting independent reviews.
Topic:: Politics, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1219. From Female Engagement Teams to Engagement Platoons: The Evolution of Gendered Community Engagement in UN Peace Operations

Author:: Gretchen Baldwin
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The military components of UN peacekeeping operations have used engagement teams (ETs) to conduct community engagement activities since at least 2015. While ETs were initially ad hoc initiatives, the UN has recently begun to institutionalize gendered community engagement, including through an ongoing shift from ETs to engagement platoons (EPs). Yet despite a general recognition that ETs have been beneficial, they have not been consistently understood or defined, making it difficult to assess how they have been used and to what effect. This policy paper fills this research gap by presenting data on the prior activities of ETs and the experiences of those deployed to them. It aims to help decision makers align policies and guidance on ETs and EPs with evidence of what has and has not worked and to establish a baseline against which EPs can be measured over time. The paper draws on extensive interviews with members of ETs and policymakers, as well as a questionnaire distributed to military peacekeepers in six peacekeeping missions. Overall, this research found broad support for the ongoing rollout of mixed-gender EPs. It concludes, however, that to effectively implement ETs and EPs, leaders in missions and in national militaries must address the institutional barriers that preclude women’s full participation in peace operations and perpetuate gendered stereotypes. Toward this end, it offers several recommendations to troop-contributing countries and the UN: Provide training on the skills required for community engagement to men and women across all levels of the military; Shift the burden for gendered community engagement off of women; Improve internal reporting and analysis by ETs and EPs; Coordinate between ETs and EPs and other mission components; Build the capacity of missions to engage with communities; and Avoid reinforcing gendered assumptions and stereotypes through the activities of ETs and EPs.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Women
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1220. Strategic Communications in UN Peace Operations: From an Afterthought to an Operational Necessity

Author:: Jake Sherman and Albert Trithart
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: United Nations peace operations are increasingly recognizing strategic communications as essential to implementing their mandates and managing expectations about what they can and cannot achieve. This has led them to ramp up their communications capabilities and shift their approach away from the traditional top-down, one-way model of communication. Nonetheless, missions continue to face obstacles in realizing this approach. This issue brief analyzes the current strategic communications practice in UN peacekeeping operations and special political missions. It explores why strategic communications are increasingly important in the contexts where missions are deployed and the external and internal challenges missions face. It also identifies best practices peace operations might adopt or adapt from other parts of the UN system and related fields. The paper concludes that, while missions may need additional resources for strategic communications, what they most need is a cultural shift. Mission leaders need to see strategic communications as a core mission capacity. Strategic communications are not an operational support function, a downstream activity, or an output of a planning cycle; they are an integral part of political strategies and mandate delivery. They are not just a leadership function but a “whole-of-mission” responsibility. Strategic communications must therefore be treated as central to every phase of a UN peace operation. If missions are to succeed, strategic communications professionals should be part of their decision making, from initial planning through transition and exit.
Topic:: United Nations, Communications, Peacekeeping, Civilians, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1221. The Road to Seoul: Previewing the 2021 UN Peacekeeping Ministerial

Author:: Daniel Forti
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The UN peacekeeping ministerial process has emerged as one of the flagship vehicles through which the UN can mobilize concrete pledges of uniformed personnel, enablers, financial resources, and capacity building for peacekeeping operations. The 2021 UN peacekeeping ministerial in Seoul—the sixth ministerial since 2014—presents a valuable opportunity for member states to make pledges, focusing on four substantive areas: (1) peacebuilding and sustaining peace; (2) partnerships for capacity building and training; (3) performance and accountability; and (4) protection of civilians and safety and security. The conference also has two cross-cutting themes: technology and medical capacity building. This issue brief offers a preview of the 2021 peacekeeping ministerial in Seoul. It discusses the motivation for and evolution of the ministerial format and its value to UN peacekeeping. It also highlights the issues discussed during the four preparatory conferences in the run-up to the conference and briefly summarizes topics raised in both the UN’s official pledging guide and independent white papers commissioned by the Republic of Korea.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1222. The risks from climate change to sovereign debt in Europe

Author:: Stavros Zenios
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The exposure of European Union sovereigns to climate risks can be acute, from extreme weather, or chronic, from the productivity effects of gradual temperature increase, increased sea levels and the transition to a low-carbon economy that results in repricing of assets. Climate-related innovations can also spur growth. These risks are priced by investors and can affect sovereign credit ratings. Governments and fiscal stability authorities have an interest in the sovereign-debt implications of climate change being transparent. To this end, we look at the exposure of EU sovereigns to climate risks, study international best practices, and describe the transmission channels from climate change to public finance. European union institutions and national fiscal authorities should mainstream climate risk analysis in public finance. Stress testing of debt dynamic requires a link between regional climate scenarios and country debt dynamics. We argue for the adoption of an architecture of narrative climate scenarios, to guide national policymaking. Narrative Scenarios can be generated using integrated assessment models. As an illustration, we apply two prominent models to generate rough bounds on the extent of the risk for Italian debt from climate change. This raises issues about the models used. Coordination by EU institutions to develop regional scenarios will ensure acceptability, raise ambitions in dealing with climate risks and encourage the fiscal authorities to think of solutions. A network for climate-proofing public finance will bring together EU and member-state institutions. We also recommend budgeting for climate expenditures and contingent liabilities, and using risk-sharing instruments, with disclosure of the risks to public finance from climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Government, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:: Europe

1223. A new direction for the European Union’s half-hearted semiconductor strategy

Author:: Niclas Poitiers and Pauline Weil
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: A basic component in electronic devices, semiconductors are essential to the production of many products, from smartphones to cars. Securing reliable supplies of semiconductors to safeguard the production lines of a range of industries has thus become an important policy goal, especially in the context of an increasingly confrontational international environment in which high-technology leadership is also associated with military power and geopolitical reach. The semiconductor sector is highly concentrated, capital- and R&D-intensive, and particularly exposed to bottlenecks and political risks. High-end chip fabrication is centred in Asia, dominated by the duopoly of Taiwan’s TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung. In other parts of the supply chain, companies in the United States and Europe hold relative monopolies that have been leveraged for trade sanctions. The United States has taken steps to block the supply of chips and components to emerging tech giants in China, and to contain China’s ambitions of building its own cutting-edge chip production capacities. Heavy United states and Chinese investment poses a challenge to the European Union, which in response has set the goal of increasing European production beyond domestic demand. To increase its presence in this strategic and thriving sector, the EU needs a more targeted strategy that builds on its existing strengths while accommodating its relatively low domestic needs. Instead of investing public funds in a subsidy war over fabrication capacity, the EU should focus on inputs and chip design. However, no economy can hope to fully achieve independence in the sector and ensuring sustainable supply through diplomatic means should therefore also be a priority. Lastly, Europe’s small role in global semiconductor production is symptomatic of shortcomings in the European environment for high-tech innovation. These shortcomings should be addressed.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Economy, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

1224. A green fiscal pact: climate investment in times of budget consolidation

Author:: Zsolt Darvas and Guntram Wolff
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The additional public investment need required to meet the European Union’s climate goals is between 0.5 percent and 1 percent of GDP annually during this decade. Increasing green public investment while consolidating deficits will be a major challenge. While our simulations show that budget consolidation can be done at a moderate pace in line with EU rules if those rules are interpreted flexibly, past consolidation episodes resulted in major public investment cuts. This time, there is a need for a major increase in investment. A ‘green golden rule’ (excluding net green investment from the fiscal indicators used to measure fiscal rule compliance) is the most promising option to address this tension. Relaxing the strictness of the EU fiscal framework beyond its existing flexibility and the proposed green golden rule does not appear necessary in the next few years. The uncertain growth impact of green public spending and the risks to growth from climate change create difficult trade offs in fiscally weaker countries. In any case, better regulatory policy and a higher price on emissions should incentivise private green investment and reduce public costs. These ingredients should be combined to form a ‘green fiscal pact’.
Topic:: Climate Change, Budget, European Union, and Public Investment
Political Geography:: Europe

1225. A new integrated-value assessment method for corporate investment

Author:: Dirk Schoenmaker
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Companies are under pressure to change their business models and become more sustainable. Corporate governance codes across Europe have introduced the term ‘long-term value creation’ to capture companies’ social responsibility. However, the concept of long-term value creation lacks tools that would enable its application. Companies still steer their investments based on outdated valuation methods, which are entirely based on financial value. The concept of integrated value would give substance to long-term value creation. Integrated value involves managing and balancing the financial, social and ecological value dimensions of companies. Impact measurement aims to capture social and ecological value alongside financial value. The first impact measurements of companies are already taking place using cost-based methods. International reporting standards have been developed to harmonise the measurement and reporting of sustainability information. But there is no guidance on how to use the impact information. This policy contribution sets out a proposal on the use of impact information to steer investment decisions. We introduce decision rules based on integrated value. These decision rules allow for the prioritisation of specific types of value, in line with a company’s purpose. A practical example shows how this new decision model can help companies improve their valuation profiles. Society expects companies to include social and environmental value in their strategies and business models in order to retain (or regain) their social license to operate. Further investment in deepening measurement and decision-making methods based on integrated value can speed up the process. The willingness of corporate executives to use these new methods will be decisive for success.
Topic:: Business, Investment, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1226. Do robots dream of paying taxes?

Author:: Rebecca Christie
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Robot taxes embody the more futuristic challenges of managing automation and legacy workers. As machines and artificial intelligence take on more roles that used to be performed by humans, policymakers and technologists are assessing the costs this transition imposes and what parts of society will pay them. A robot tax on companies that replace employees with automated systems is easy to dismiss in its most simplistic forms but should be considered in the context of managing the next industrial revolution. A robot tax is a political construction, a way to shape democratic debate around technological shifts and societal needs. It is a construct of the public debate, and as such can contribute to broader discussions about how to make sure profitable companies pay their way in the economy. The political capital of ‘replacement robot’ imagery may be useful in designing a tax framework for legacy firms making the most of new economic opportunities. It is best to consider a ‘robot tax’ as a rallying concept for targeted levies. These policies should target finance and other data-driven sectors as well as traditional manufacturing and mining automation. Policymakers should consider overall employment, specific job losses and how to assess firms that make layoffs in specific areas of their workforces. This last will be especially difficult in cases where total headcount rises, even though some generations of employees may be put out of work. Tax policy can compensate for distortions due to shifts from human-driven to capital-intensive production in specific sectors. On the revenue side, there should be appropriate expectations of what a tech tax can raise and over what period, on the scale of targeted retirement assistance or retraining programmes with measurable outcomes, not long-running cash cows. Smaller and more innovative firms should not be asked to contribute disproportionately, particularly in legacy markets that are hard to break into, and they should be eligible for waivers and exemptions. Policymakers should stress that asking producers to help pay the costs of societal change is not immediately equivalent to stifling innovation, and they should make every effort to design policies in ways that protect against this type of side effect. Finally, any new tax on employers needs to fit with broader discussions of the corporate fair share, and with taxing the most profitable parts of the economy instead of relying on workers and consumers to foot society’s bills.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Business, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1227. Biometric technologies at work: a proposed use-based taxonomy

Author:: Mario Mariniello and Mia Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Biometric technologies have in principle the potential to significantly improve worker productivity, security and safety. However, they are also a source of new risks, including exposure to potential personal data abuse or the psychological distress caused by permanent monitoring. The European Union lacks a coherent regulatory framework on the mitigation of risks arising from the use of biometric technologies in the workplace. We propose a taxonomy to underpin the use of artificial intelligence-powered biometric technologies in the workplace. Technologies can be classified into four broad categories based on their main function: (1) security, (2) recruitment, (3) monitoring, (4) safety and well-being. We identify the benefits and risks linked to each category. To be more effective, EU regulation of artificial intelligence (AI) in the workplace should integrate more detail on technology use. It should also address the current scarcity of granular data by sourcing information from users of AI technologies, not only providers. There is an untapped potential for technology to address workplace health hazards. Policymakers should design incentive mechanisms to encourage adoption of the technologies with the greatest potential to benefit workers. Artificial intelligence users, in particular bigger companies, should be required to assess the effect of AI adoption on work processes, with the active participation of their workforces.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, and Biometrics
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

1228. What is holding back artificial intelligence adoption in Europe?

Author:: Mia Hoffmann and Laura Nurski
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Artificial intelligence (AI) is considered a key driver of future economic development, expected to increase labour productivity and economic growth worldwide. To realise these gains, AI technologies need to be adopted by companies and integrated into their operations. However, it is unclear what the current level of AI adoption by European firms actually is. Estimates vary widely because of uneven data collection and lack of a standard definition and taxonomy of AI. What is clear is that AI adoption in Europe is low and likely running behind other parts of the world. Discussions on the barriers to AI advancement often mix up different stages of innovation – research, development and adoption. Each stage is constrained by the availability of skills, data and financing in the European market, but there are nuances in how these barriers arise in each of the three stages. This policy contribution focuses on the final stage, AI adoption. We discuss theoretical and empirical evidence of the drivers of AI adoption. We outline the relevant barriers to adoption for European firms in terms of human capital, data availability and funding, and make international comparisons where possible. To accelerate the roll-out of AI technology across the European Union, policymakers should alleviate constraints to adoption faced by firms, both in the environmental context – labour market, financial market and regulation – and in the technological context – data availability, basic digitisation of businesses and technological uncertainty.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Economic Development, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Europe

1229. The 2021 Australia-US Ministerial Consultations: Five Critical Areas for Cooperation

Author:: John Lee
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: On September 16, the US will host the Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN), the annual meeting of cabinet-level principals responsible for foreign affairs and the defense of Australia and the US. Although Australia participates in similar 2+2 meetings with a handful of countries that include the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, and India, AUSMIN is the most established and essential of these for Canberra, reflecting the singular importance of Australia’s alliance with the US. While affirming the closeness of the two countries’ relationship, AUSMIN represents much more than symbolism or tradition, as the US-Australia bilateral alliance is also a practical relationship based on action, outputs, and outcomes. AUSMIN is therefore a necessary event on the calendar that leads to both countries’ formulating objectives and implementing policy decisions. Viewed in a broader context, AUSMIN also increases regional countries’ confidence that US alliances are not merely historical artifacts, but relationships that evolve and respond to the most important of current challenges. The latter point, increasing regional and global confidence in US-led strategic architecture, is crucial, as the rising threat posed by authoritarian nations such as China and Russia requires a collective and coherent response by democratic countries and groupings. The US’s formal alliances in the Indo-Pacific complement other groupings of democracies such as the Group of Seven and newer entities such as the Quad, which involves the US, Japan, India, and Australia. In particular, its alliances with Japan and Australia are the US’s northern and southern anchors in the Indo-Pacific. Consequently, as one of the most important annual meetings of the US-Australia alliance, AUSMIN takes on even broader significance and relevance due to its role in ensuring regional and global balances of power, resolve, and values that favor liberal democracies. This paper outlines five areas that, from an Australian perspective, are critical to the Australia-US security partnership and efforts to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Areas of discussion that should be prioritized by AUSMIN participants include: shifting orthodoxies around warning times for military conflict with China; increasing multi-domain joint military training; responding to illegitimate Chinese economic activity; adapting shared geopolitical strategy to account for the pandemic’s impact in the region; and countering Chinese narratives about the superiority of authoritarian models of governance.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Australia and United States of America

1230. Filtering and Site Blocking: Necessary Reforms for the Digital Marketplace

Author:: Steven Tepp
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Business models and technology have changed dramatically since the 1990s; nowhere more so than online. Those changes, alongside some key judicial decisions, have distorted the operation of the US copyright law provision specifically designed to address online copyright infringement. Today, even a platform that knows that 80 percent of what it hosts are unlicensed copyrighted works, it can be shielded from accountability by the safe harbors in the Copyright Act. Copyright owners are left to send millions of takedown requests with little actual effect on piracy. This, along with other factors, led the US Copyright Office to conclude that the cooperative environment the law was meant to create has not and will not be realized without amending the law. And while dozens of other countries have successfully adopted measures to address online infringement from beyond their borders, the United States has not acted to implement similar procedures.
Topic:: Intellectual Property/Copyright, Law, Reform, and Criminal Justice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1231. Xi Jinping’s Evergrande Dilemma

Author:: John Lee
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Evergrande is one of the top-two real estate developers in a still highly fragmented Chinese sector. Its main strategy is to achieve ever-increasing scale (rather than profitability) in order to move ahead of and crowd out commercial competitors. It has also amassed the largest land reserves of all Chinese developers, which were financed through massive borrowings. By 2018, Evergrande held 822 pieces of undeveloped land in 228 cities, with a planned gross floor area of 3.28 billion square feet of new homes—the equivalent of 10 percent of Germany’s entire housing stock. It paid $75 billion just for this undeveloped land. Although Evergrande’s market share is only around 4 percent, its borrowings stand out. Its current balance sheet liabilities amount to an estimated 2 percent of China’s gross domestic product (GDP), while its off-balance-sheet liabilities could be another 1 percent of China’s GDP. This makes Evergrande the most indebted property developer in the world. Burdened by this debt, struggling to meet its debt interest and repayment obligations, and viable only if property asset values and sales continue to increase, Evergrande faces possible financial collapse—an event bound to have flow-on effects for the Chinese economy. However, the unusually high global interest in Evergrande has arisen because its woes are increasingly seen as symptomatic of those faced by the broader Chinese economy, which is struggling with enormous levels of indebtedness and overreliance on the real estate sector. Debt held by nonfinancial institutions in China increased from about 115 percent of GDP in 2010 to around 160 percent of GDP currently. This is the most rapid and largest increase in a 10-year period for any major economy and makes the level of debt held by Chinese nonfinancial institutions one of the highest in the world. The real estate sector accounts for around 15 percent of GDP, while property services account for another 14 percent—the highest in any developing economy. The share of the real estate sector as a proportion of GDP was only about 4 percent in 1997 and 9 percent in 2008. Since 2008, up to a third of all domestic fixed investment has gone into real estate, and up to half of total national debt is linked to the real estate sector.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Debt, Economics, Markets, and Business
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1232. The Value of Cellular Technology

Author:: Urška Petrovčič and Kirti Gupta
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Cellular technologies, such as those embodied in the third generation (3G), fourth generation (4G), and fifth generation (5G) of cellular standards, have provided the foundation for a thriving mobile ecosystem that has benefited consumers and businesses all over the world. In the past 20 years, the number of mobile connections has grown almost 10-fold, reaching an ever-growing percentage of the global population. In 2017, the number of mobile connections surpassed the number of people on the planet. In 2019, mobile technologies and services added $4.8 trillion of economic value to the global economy, and the mobile ecosystem employed (directly and indirectly) 30 million people. Although cellular technology has already transformed all facets of our society, the deployment of 5G will bring even broader and more radical changes. By connecting everything and everywhere, 5G will help us realize the full potential of connectivity and usher in the era of smart transportation, smart cities, smart factories, and smart homes. The new products and services enabled by 5G will change all aspects of our daily life, such as health care, energy, agriculture, automotive, manufacturing, and retail, among others. This will not only benefit consumers and businesses, but society as a whole. Cellular technologies are central to this revolution. Without advances in the cellular space, none of the economic and societal benefits we see in the connected world would be possible. Therefore, it is important to understand how cellular technologies are developed and deployed, and what impact they have on the economy and on society more broadly. It is also important to understand why fairly compensating cellular innovators is essential to maintain a sustainable system where new technologies can be developed and brought to consumers.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Law, Criminal Justice, and 5G
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1233. Genocide in Xinjiang: Centering Uyghur Human Rights in US Policies Toward China

Author:: Nury Turkel
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Acts of genocide are currently underway against the Uyghur people in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of northwestern China, also known as East Turkistan. As part of a campaign of persecution and cultural eradication, Chinese authorities have, according to former detainees and prisoners, subjected millions of Uyghurs and other minorities to rape, torture, forced labor, arbitrary detention, involuntary abortion and sterilization in state-run facilities, and the separation of around half a million Uyghur children from their families. Although both Republicans and Democrats in the United States have acknowledged these horrifying acts as genocide, the rest of the world has been slow to follow, whether because they find the evidence to be inconclusive or because they are reluctant to antagonize China. Regardless, now that the Biden administration is on record declaring the actions of the Chinese government to be genocide, the United States has a legal and moral obligation to do what it can to end the mass atrocities that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is committing against the Uyghur people. While both the Trump and Biden administrations and Congress have already taken steps to address this human rights disaster, more can and should be done to defend the Uyghur people, address their humanitarian needs, promote accountability, and ensure that individuals and entities within the United States—including private businesses—are not complicit in the abuses underway. A strong response to the ongoing genocidal campaign would send a powerful message to Beijing that America will not tolerate efforts to destroy ethno-religious groups, either as a whole or in part. Conversely, failure to act would render the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (which the United States ratified in 1988) and its implementing legislation null and void. Through the three Cs—competition, confrontation, and cooperation—the Biden administration can act in coordination with US friends and allies abroad to end these atrocities. The Biden administration is now on record as recognizing this repressive campaign as genocide, a move that must trigger a response toward Beijing that departs from business as usual. Although China’s significant global influence supports the assumption that effective levers to influence its behavior with respect to human rights issues are lacking, international attention and pressure have already caused Beijing to backpedal to a certain degree. This attention and pressure resulted from US-led efforts to rally international support coupled with US legislative and executive responses, including sanctions, visa restrictions, and trade restrictions. This policy memo outlines the nine areas of action that, performed in coordination with complementary actions of partners and allies, could alleviate the Uyghur human rights crisis, pressure China to reverse course, and ensure that the West and corporate America are not complicit in genocide.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Genocide, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:: China, Asia, United States of America, and Xinjiang

1234. Transatlantic Paralysis: The US-EU Trade Policy Stalemate and the European Union’s Democratic Deficit

Author:: Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: What is often labeled the democratic deficit in governance of the European Union (EU) is not a a flaw or bug in its architecture, it is a design feature. From its earliest days in the Second World War’s chaotic aftermath, European integration “was essentially an elite project, pursued at a distance from the daily concerns of the national populations in Western Europe.” Also formed as a response to the economic disintegration following the Depression and World War Two, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was similarly removed from national or populist politics. It too was an elite, top-down initiative designed to embed nations in a system of international rules largely articulated by technical experts, enforced by a form of international courts, and far removed from national and populist politics. Many of the intellectual proponents of both supranational institutions, from the Austrian School of economics, the ordoliberals emerging in early-20th century Germany, to the London School of Economics indeed shared a distrust of American-style democracy, let alone the various parliamentary democracies whose failure led to the disasters of the 1930s and 1940s. Over the last fifty years, the institutions put in place after World War II have been perfected and have, to a certain extent, ossified. Many of the difficulties in achieving greater US-EU economic coordination in the 21st century have their origins in the institutional design and the subsequent early implementation of early European Community rules during the post-war period. A brief overview of the history of European integration, and the political thinking behind it, helps explain the current paralysis in contemporary transatlantic cooperation, including in a joint approach to the challenge of Chinese mercantilism and its growing international reach.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, Democracy, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

1235. Winning the Geo-Tech Battle and Building the Quad Alliance in the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Eric B. Brown, John Lee, and Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Under Xi Jinping, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has established as its paramount geopolitical objective the replacement of the free and open, rules-based order in Asia with an alternative world order, one that is to be dominated by the interests and values of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This decision presents a danger to the entire world, not just to any one state or group of states. For, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the March 2021 US-PRC meeting in Alaska, the alternative to a rules-based order “is a world in which might makes right and winners take all, and that would be a far more violent and unstable world for all of us.” In furtherance of its objectives, the PRC is in the midst of a large military build-up, but there is much more. For today’s CCP, political power grows not only from the “barrel of the gun,” as Mao Zedong once put it, but also from cutting-edge technologies. Thus, while Beijing pours billions into artificial intelligence and surveillance tech to impose its new “digital totalitarianism” inside the PRC, from Hong Kong to Xinjiang, it is also using its growing technological prowess to press its larger geopolitical agenda in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. It is weaponizing technology and connectivity, along with trade, finance, and other policy instruments to try to rule the key technologies and industries of the future, as well as to improve its strategic positioning and acquire political power over other countries—for instance, through its bid to dominate other nations’ most sensitive data networks, or via the export of its suite of “social stability” technologies, i.e., the “techno-tyrant’s toolkit.” In all this, the CCP’s intent is to entrench its power and Leninist norms and practices to the extent it can do so beyond the PRC’s borders, and to make other nations, or at the least their ruling elites, beholden to it. So in addition to the PRC’s militarily destabilizing activities in the West Pacific and incursions into India’s Himalayas, there is also a “geo-technological front.” If Xi’s CCP succeeds at enmeshing other countries in its expanding “PRC sphere of technological influence,” it could unlock and be able to exploit decisive military, economic, diplomatic, and ideological advantages.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Economics, and Alliance
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, East Asia, and Asia-Pacific

1236. The Chinese Communist Party’s Economic Challenge to the Free World

Author:: Miles M. Yu
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The Chinese economy and the philosophical roots of China’s system have greater implications for the United States economy than many assume. The one critical fact to understand about the People’s Republic of China is that it is a communist dictatorship ruled by a Marxist-Leninist party. The Party is dedicated to maintaining and strengthening its monopoly on all powers in the world’s most populous country and to mounting the most serious challenge to the free world since the Cold War. This policy memo will examine the Chinese economy’s distinct traits, how it operates, and why it thrives under a monopolistic government that exploits and challenges the global free market system, along with possible policy recommendations for the United States and its allies. Unlike most other communist countries, China has been afforded the benefits of a global free-market system and enjoys largely open access to international trade, capital markets, and advanced technologies. The paradox of a communist nation fully participating in a largely capitalist system has enriched and strengthened the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), to the point where Beijing poses a mortal threat to the United States and to the international free market economic system that has enabled the rise of the communist state. The West played a role in creating the current state of play. But too many conversations in the United States focus only on our own strategic thinking. In his historic speech at the Richard Nixon Library in July 2020, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo aptly described the situation and how we got here: “Our policies—and those of other free nations—resurrected China’s failing economy, only to see Beijing bite the international hands that were feeding it.” As President Richard Nixon admitted in his later years, his initiative to open up China in 1972 might have created a Frankenstein.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Communism, Economics, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

1237. The Atrocities Against Uyghurs and Other Minorities in Xinjiang

Author:: Nury Turkel
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: This memo is adapted from Nury Turkel’s testimony before the US House of Representative’s Committee on Foreign Affairs’ hearing on May 6, 2021, “The Atrocities Against Uyghurs and Other Minorities in Xinjiang.” He testified on behalf of the Uyghur Human Rights Project.
Topic:: Human Rights, Politics, Religion, Repression, Uyghurs, and Freedom
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1238. A Just Response to Beijing’s COVID-19 Abuses

Author:: David Asher, Miles M. Yu, David Feith, Matthew Zweig, and Thomas DiNanno
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Nearly 18 months after word of a deadly new virus began leaking out of Wuhan, China, the Chinese government’s response remains fundamentally hostile to international cooperation and transparency. Despite hundreds of offers of assistance, polite diplomatic entreaties, and demands for access to data by governments and health authorities across the globe, the world still knows far too little about COVID-19’s origin. As in a Dali painting, the clocks have melted but time has not stood still. China’s initial silencing and censoring of its doctors and scientists, followed by misinformation about COVID-19’s dangers—especially denials concerning the virus’s ability to be spread human-to-human, invisibly and asymptomatically—helped cost the world trillions of dollars and millions of lives. Whether one believes COVID-19 originated in a zoonotic host, a bat cave, a frozen food shipment, or a Wuhan lab’s dangerous “dual-use” research supporting undeclared bioweapons programs, the world needs answers from the Chinese Communist Party. These are answers Beijing won’t provide unless it faces a high price for refusing. For the good of public health and international security, the Biden administration and the Congress can unite in a coordinated, long-term response.
Topic:: Security, Health, Research, Transparency, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1239. How IP Rights Keep Markets Free

Author:: Jonathan M. Barnett
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: It is elementary that secure protection of property rights is a necessary precondition for efficient markets that drive economic growth. Yet this principle is not always recognized in the case of markets for intangible goods. Rather, intellectual property rights are often characterized as a monopoly franchise that stands at odds with free-market competition. Following this view, IP rights at best provide a justifiable means to incentivize innovation but are prone to abuse by incumbents seeking to block entrants. This standard narrative overlooks an inconvenient fact. As I show in a new book, Innovators, Firms, and Markets: The Organizational Logic of Intellectual Property, incumbents and other large firms in US technology markets have regularly advocated against stronger forms of patent protection and, in certain industries, have resisted patent protection entirely. This lobbying strategy poses a puzzle: Why would dominant firms resist the opportunity to operate under the umbrella of a legal monopoly? This policy memo analyzes the counterintuitive IP policy preferences of large technology firms and, in resolving this apparent anomaly, shows that patents tend to enhance competitive intensity by enabling idea-rich but capital-poor innovators to challenge idea-poor but capital-rich incumbents. Contrary to widespread assumptions, IP rights are far closer to the familiar property rights that support tangible goods markets rather than the monopoly grant to which they are often (and misleadingly) analogized. These insights, which are based on over a century’s worth of US innovation history, raise significant concerns about the IP-skeptical trajectory that policymakers have pursued since the mid-2000s.
Topic:: Markets, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Law, and Criminal Justice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1240. A Strategic US Approach to India’s COVID-19 Crisis

Author:: Husain Haqqani and Aparna Pande
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The recent surge of COVID-19 in South Asia challenges India’s traditional ability to aid its smaller neighbors, a change that could, in turn, affect India’s influence in its competition with China. Unless India can recover from this surge with the help of allies like the United States, the pandemic could impact the Indo-Pacific’s geopolitical balance. In the past, India has often acted as a first responder across South Asia, helping other countries recover from natural disasters, and it initially occupied this role during the first months of the coronavirus pandemic, when it helped several South Asian and Indian Ocean region countries cope with the effects of the disease. India’s role as ‘first responder’ has been a key factor in its geopolitical power and in maintaining its role as a leader in the region. However, the resurgence of COVID-19 has jolted India at a time when democratic countries, including the United States, view India as critical to balancing China’s deepening influence cross Asia. South Asia, a region holding 23 percent of the world’s population, now accounts for over 11 percent of global COVID-19 cases and 6 percent of COVID-related deaths. The world’s largest democracy and second-most populous country, India alone currently accounts for over 84 percent of South Asia’s cases and deaths. For most of 2020, it appeared that India, thanks partly to a lockdown, had managed to avert a huge health crisis. During this time, India supported its immediate South Asian neighbors by supplying personal protective equipment and medications. However, the latest COVID-19 surge has created a crisis that has strained the Indian health infrastructure’s ability to meet. With more resources being diverted towards domestic ends, India’s ability to maintain friends and influence other countries has diminished, also potentially shrinking its sphere of influence. The US must therefore go beyond dealing with its own health crisis and also support India in dealing with its crisis. Instead of allowing China to consolidate its positions in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, and the Maldives, helping India restore its ability to provide assistance would be in the best interests of the United States and its allies.
Topic:: International Relations, Health Care Policy, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Asia, and United States of America

1241. Recommendations to Congress Concerning the Investigation into SARS-CoV-2's Origin

Author:: Thomas DiNanno
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: On May 26, 2021, President Biden announced that he had tasked the US Intelligence Community (IC) with providing a definitive review of SARS-CoV-2’s origins within 90 days, and that deadline is fast approaching. On the same day, CNN reported that the Biden administration had shut down another investigation into possible Chinese government dual-use biological programs being conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and its associated facilities. This investigation, which was being conducted by the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance (AVC), had been initiated by Secretary Pompeo’s State Department in 2019, and its purpose was to answer the following questions: What role, if any, did the Chinese government’s virus research program play in its biological weapons program? Under the Biological Weapons Convention, any use and development of capabilities with potential dual uses (civilian and military) must be for peaceful purposes. Did this virus research program and the spread of SARS-CoV-2 represent a further Chinese violation of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)? Following the completion of the 90-day review, Congress should, over the short term, request that the AVC Bureau continue the investigation into SARS-CoV-2’s origin that President Biden interrupted and re-assigned to the Intelligence Community. In contrast to the US IC, the Bureau’s sole function is to assess other nations’ compliance with their international arms control obligations and, moreover, has the legal mandate to do so. Additionally, this memo contains recommendations concerning the US government’s compliance-and-verification function over the long term that would support policymakers and allow it to effectively fulfill its Congressional mandate.
Topic:: Health Care Policy, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1242. Will the Biden Administration Support Global US Leadership in the Innovative Medicines Industry?

Author:: Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Given the historically unprecedented speed with which the US pharmaceutical industry has developed COVID-19 vaccines—3 of the 4 first products likely to be approved for marketing are almost certainly from US firms—it would seem appropriate for a renewed sense of confidence, support and even acclaim for the economic model that lies behind this success. Instead, the sector remains under pressure to lower prices and protections for its patented products, both in the United States and globally. It is worth noting that the entire world benefits from the new medical advances in treating the worst pandemic in at least 50 years. Instead, President Trump has continued to criticize the industry for its pricing model for newly developed drugs, while countries such as India, Pakistan, and Brazil call for breaching of the patent shield for the new vaccines (and recent treatments such as those for HIV and Hepatitis C), and developed countries in Europe, East Asia, as well as Canada, persist in questioning the medical value of the new medicines to their citizens.1 To add to the current uncertainty about US leadership, there is ever-increasing competition from China in terms of basic science and pharmaceutical products. The Chinese national goal of self-sufficiency in these two fields has resulted in a huge increase in research and development funding and purchases of leading biotechnology firms in the United States and Europe. At the same time, China’s global market share in generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) is steadily growing. Chinese government funding for research in these fields has grown by 20 percent annually since 2008. The incoming Biden administration is calling for new pricing models and the use of compulsory licensing for some new products, especially those related to the new virus pandemics. Compulsory licensing allows a government to license entities other than the patent holder to produce and sell patented products without the patent holder’s permission. If the economic and scientific model which promotes constant advances in medicines and new treatments is to survive, the current domestic ecosystem for research and development ought to be strengthened, instead of being undermined by reducing private sector incentives and weakening the protection of intellectual property (IP). Additionally, ways to address the problem with other countries enjoying a “free ride” at the expense of US consumers and public health systems, need to be considered.
Topic:: Health Care Policy, Manufacturing, Innovation, Vaccine, COVID-19, Medicine, and Pharmaceuticals
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1243. Building a Strong and Independent Iraq: Policy Guidance for the Biden Administration

Author:: Abram N. Shulsky
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Formulating US policy toward Iraq can be a fraught matter, given all the debate and disagreement concerning the actions that brought us to the current situation. However, our policy must be formulated in light of it, regardless of views about our past actions. Policy formulation should begin with the realization that Iran has gained a predominant political and military influence in Iraq. Despite efforts of past PM Adel Abdul Mahdi and current PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, many of the militias comprising the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) still answer to Iran, not the Iraqi government. Iran exerts widespread influence throughout the political class. Economically, Iraq remains dependent on Iran for energy;1 religious tourism from Iran to the holy sites in Karbala and Najaf is an important source of revenue; and Iran has flooded markets with cheap food and consumer goods. Although Iraqi oil production has rebounded, the economy remains relatively moribund and the level of basic public services is poor. (That Iraq flares off its natural gas at the same time it is importing it from Iran to produce electricity2 highlights the economic disfunction.) Popular discontent boiled over in 2019, leading to widespread protests. The protests took on an anti-Iranian aspect, and Iran-aligned PMF units attacked the protestors.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Economics, Government, Politics, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

1244. Europe's China Chimera

Author:: Peter Rough
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: When Xi Jinping, the chairman of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), dreams of global domination, he worries about one thing above all else: a hostile United States backed by its allies—and on the Eurasian landmass, the US has no more important ally than Europe. As a result, Xi has worked to weaken the transatlantic alliance through a two-pronged economic stratagem. First, under the guise of globalization, China has insinuated itself into the European economy, creating dependencies. Second, Beijing is manipulating those dependencies to hollow out and supplant Europe’s advanced economies. To give this deception cover, China has built a vast political network across Europe, from basic sympathizers to outright spies. Until recently, barely anyone took notice, but the financial crisis and forever wars of the past two decades, culminating in the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States, lured the self-confident Xi out into the open. During the coronavirus pandemic, China revealed an aggressive attitude toward Great Britain’s former colonies that shocked the United Kingdom. In the span of mere months, London shifted from cooperation to confrontation. In July, it became the first country in Europe to block the Chinese telecommunications giant, Huawei, from its next-generation networks. Germany, the continent’s most important country, still sees China as key to post-pandemic recovery and economic growth, however. Xi has exploited this attitude to strike an investment agreement with the European Union (EU), the chief purpose of which is to forestall a transatlantic approach under the new US president, Joe Biden. Together, the United States and Europe have unparalleled advantages against any competitor. Now is the time for cooperation, before Xi’s dreams become our collective nightmare.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

1245. A US-India Trade Agenda for the Biden Administration

Author:: Aparna Pande and Husain Haqqani
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The US ought to counteract the influence of Chinese authoritarianism early and often. One relatively low-cost way is to encourage India to engage more deeply as a competitor with China in the global economy. A democracy since its independence in 1947, with a population about the same as that of China, India is that country’s natural rival in Asia. Beginning with India’s decision in 1990-91 to liberalize its economy, the nation has gradually opened its vast market to global trade. Fueled by fresh access to foreign capital and technology, India’s economy grew over six percent during the first decade of the 21st century. In May 2014, this progress was further advanced by the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. For the first time in India’s history, a conservative administration had a clear parliamentary majority, making it possible to legislate foundational, market-positive reform. India has adopted a new insolvency and bankruptcy code and replaced multiple taxation regimes across its states with a federal goods and services tax, which is welcome. But India has done little to end its excessive protectionism. Its distrust of foreign corporations, a legacy of colonial rule, endures. Indian policy makers may believe that the US is so eager for Indian competition with China that Washington will grant them a pass on restrictive trade and investment policies. But there is a better choice. India is nowhere near its full economic potential, and the fix isn’t complicated. The Biden agenda for India should encourage India to lower tariffs, to remove barriers to foreign retail, to roll back unnecessarily restrictive data privacy rules, and to provide economic incentives for foreign investment.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, and United States of America

1246. US Support for Australia and the Region Against PRC Coercion: A Six Point Agenda

Author:: John Lee
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Since around 2016, Australia has been transitioning away from a “small target” hedging mindset toward a more proactive countering and balancing approach vis-à-vis the People’s Republic of China. This is largely a response to the increasingly assertive and coercive activities of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which is the predominant cause of instability, uncertainty, and anxiety in Canberra and throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The CCP has implemented a sustained and cascading array of economic and diplomatic punishments against Australia in an attempt to intimidate Australia and force changes in Australian policy. Beijing is explicit that this is the purpose of the ongoing series of punishments against Canberra. In November 2020, its embassy in Canberra went to the extraordinary lengths of releasing the infamous “14 grievances” against the Australian government[i] to justify the ongoing punitive measures. These included mainly domestic Australian policies such as restrictions on Chinese investment, the funding of Australian think tanks critical of the PRC, the passing of foreign interference legislation to root out Chinese interference in Australian institutions, and the banning of Chinese firms from the Australian 5G telecommunications roll-out. Australia is widely seen as the proverbial canary in the mine and needs American support. If Australia can hold its ground and continue to find the courage and creativity to pursue its national interest, then the PRC will suffer an enormous blow. On the other hand, if Australia is eventually cowed by the PRC and relents on key policy settings, then other sovereign nations might well lose the courage to stand firmer against the PRC’s coercion and intimidation. Strengthening the fortitude of Australian leaders is the assurance that the United States is behind its ally. That assurance was previously given to Canberra by the Donald Trump administration and has been continued by the Joe Biden administration. Indeed, the Biden administration has declared it will go further and do better than the previous administration in reinvigorating and deepening its alliances and friendships with Indo-Pacific nations to better manage the PRC challenge and threat. This brief has been prepared to assist the Biden team in doing just that. It gives some context to Australia’s evolving Indo-Pacific strategy: how a nation that is not a superpower is thinking about the PRC’s policies and activities in the region, why Canberra is taking proactive and forward leaning actions to counter and balance the PRC, and what Canberra is hoping will be some priority areas for the Biden administration with respect to the Indo-Pacific approach and strategy by the US.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Joe Biden, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: China, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1247. Does Immigration Grow the Pie? Asymmetric Evidence from Germany

Author:: Eugenia Vella
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: This Policy brief by Eugenia Vella, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, elected to the position of Assistant Professor, Athens University of Economics and Business; Research Fellow, ELIAMEP and Fundació MOVE provides empirical evidence suggesting that net migration flows can have substantial demand effects. Using monthly administrative data (2006-2019) for Germany, we show that migration stimulates job openings, wages, house prices, investment, consumption, net exports, and output. Unemployment falls for natives (job-creation effect), driving a decline in total unemployment, while rising for foreigners (job-competition effect). The geographic origin of migrants and the education level of residents matter crucially for the effects. Overall, the evidence implies that the policy debate should focus on redistributive strategies between natives and foreigners.
Topic:: Migration, Immigration, Employment, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

1248. How the EU Lost in Libya

Author:: Spyros Plakoudas
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: In 2019, the Libyan Crisis entered a new (and more violent and messy) phase in which outside powers (for example, Russia) intervened and impacted on developments on the ground (politically and militarily) in a profound way. These actors capitalized on the EU’s half-hearted (and thus ineffective) efforts to stabilize the country after Gaddafi’s fall and, by mid-2020, succeeded in effectively ousting the EU from its near abroad; they have dominated developments ever since.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Libya, and North Africa

1249. EU Strategic Priorities for a ‘New Multilateralism’: a follow-up to the European Commission-EEAS Communication

Author:: Spyros Blavoukos and George Pagoulatos
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: All major contemporary challenges, be they environmental, digital, public health or demographic, are cross-national and transnational in nature, necessitating multilateral, cross-border solutions. The EU envisages a world system collaborating more closely and tightly to combat global challenges old and new, like the Covid-19 pandemic and global recession. We follow up on the recent European Commission and EEAS Communication by proposing three key strategic priorities for the EU’s international engagement in the years to come. The EU should make it a priority to improve the performance of all international organizations (IOs), focusing on the most important ones and those in which it has the greatest leverage. The EU should seek to engage with running IOs, to reform IOs and to allocate more resources. The EU should address the weaponization of asymmetric interdependence by taking action at a global multilateral, cross-regional and intra-EU level. Developing EU strategic autonomy should focus on security, AI, digital technology, sustainability and cyber warfare, also by cooperating with like-minded allies like the US. Strengthening the global role of the euro is part of the strategy. The EU should economize resources by prioritizing key regions (Africa and MENA) and key IOs. Finally, promoting rules-based multilateralism at global level requires defending its benefits for European citizens at home.
Topic:: Communications, European Union, Multilateralism, COVID-19, Strategic Autonomy, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe

1250. The European Union and the geopolitics of Covid19 vaccines in the Western Balkans – Isabelle Ioannides

Author:: Isabelle Ioannides
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The race for the limited Covid19 vaccines has led to shifts in the geopolitics at play in the Western Balkans. Despite the impressions that China and Russia have the upper hand, however, the European Union (EU) has not been absent from the region. Given the difficulties to meet vaccine needs in its member states, the EU has concentrated on long-term consequences of the Covid19 pandemic in the Western Balkans. Meanwhile, Covid19 cases and deaths are increasing in the region, pointing to the need for more attention on short-term challenges. The handling of the pandemic in the Western Balkans has also reaffirmed long-standing shortcomings in the EU foreign policy. Given that the vaccination is on track in EU member states, the time has come for the EU to prioritise the delivery of Covid19 vaccines to the Western Balkans.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

1251. Making Connectivity Work: Transforming the Port of Thessaloniki into a Top Hub for Southeast Europe and Beyond

Author:: Panagiotis Paschalidis and Georgia Anastasiou
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The Thessaloniki Port has all the necessary elements to become a top regional, South-East European and international trade hub. The Thessaloniki Port Authority has adopted extrovert and proactive policies for strengthening cooperation with neighboring countries. The Thessaloniki Port’s impact can become even stronger if it is approached and designed on the basis of the notion of connectivity. Connectivity entails the upgrading of both technical and material aspects such as trade and commercial infrastructure (hard module) as well as the institutional and policy framework of cooperation such as agreements at the bilateral and multilateral level with neighboring countries (soft module). The drastic normalization of relations between Greece and North Macedonia can be viewed as an example of a comprehensive upgrading of connectivity with tangible benefits for the improvement of the Port’s regional and international role.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Infrastructure, Trade, and Port
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, and Thessaloniki

1252. Emigration and Fiscal Austerity in the Greek Depression

Author:: Eugenia Vella
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: What is the role of emigration in a deep recession when the government implements fiscal consolidation? Our macroeconomic model simulations show that fiscal austerity accounts for 1/3 of the output drop in the Greek Depression and more than 10% of migration outflows. In a no-emigration counterfactual scenario, the model predicts a smaller output fall by 20%. We also uncover a novel bi-directional link between emigration and austerity. On the one hand, labour income tax hikes induce prolonged migration outflows, while spending cuts exert a smaller effect. On the other hand, emigration increases the required tax hike and time to meet a given debt target due to endogenous revenue leakage. In terms of unemployment, temporary gains from emigration are reversed over time.
Topic:: Austerity, Fiscal Policy, Emigration, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

1253. Conference on the Future of Europe: Who is ready for a European Political Union?

Author:: Christos Mavrakos
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: A Conference on the Future of Europe was recently launched by the three EU political institutions. It aims to give Europeans a greater say in what the EU does and how it works for them. It is expected that at the end of this process, the political projects and priorities that will be at the heart of European political action in the coming decades will be sounded out. Little emphasis, on the other hand, is placed on the question of whether the institutions that are to breath life into these projects and priorities are not also in need of renewal. While it is very important to listen to the citizens of Europe, it is the thesis of the present paper that politicians in the member states as well as at the EU level should not simply hide behind the Conference and shirk their responsibilities. Rather, alongside the Conference, they should become creatively active by taking a stand on its scope, its procedure and its objectives. In terms of scope, it is argued that a Conference on the Future of Europe should focus not only on substantive issues, but also on the creation of a new, more democratic, efficient and mutually supportive institutional vehicle, such as a European Poltical Union (EPU), among the Member States and peoples of Europe who so desire. As regards the procedure for a Conference on the Future of Europe, given that the application of the revision procedure provided for in Article 48 TEU for the establishment of an EPU would severely hamper its chances of success, it is proposed to follow instead an alternative procedure which, moreover, is inspired by classical international law and allows those Member States which are in favor of the establishment of an EPU to go ahead without being prevented from doing so by Member States which reject this prospect. As for the objectives that a Conference on the Future of Europe should strive to achieve, it is argued that institutionally such a Conference should produce strong political institutions and effective decision-making procedures, and substantively provide an EPU with substantial means of action in a number of policy areas, including common foreign and defence policy. The paper concludes by asking – hopefully not rhetorically – which political forces in today’s Europe are willing to advocate such an EPU, emphasizing that European citizens, especially the younger generation, have a right to be informed.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, and Future
Political Geography:: Europe

1254. Immunity Passports in the context of COVID-19: Τechnological Solutions, Regulatory Considerations and Ethical Challenges

Author:: Mihalis Kritikos
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The European Parliament and the Council of Ministers of the EU recently reached an agreement on COVID-19 certificates designed to facilitate travel and help revive tourism in Europe. Although the certificate is expected to greatly simplify travel within the EU, its large-scale deployment is not without scientific, legal, and ethical challenges. The current analysis sheds light on the main tenets of the agreed EU framework and highlights the positions and initiatives of the main stakeholders. It also examines the major ethical and legal questions associated with the release of the certificate and makes a series of recommendations that could contribute to the efficient handling of some of these challenges so as to ensure a socially-responsible and effective use of this new EU instrument.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Regulation, Ethics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

1255. American assertiveness, UN irrelevance, Europe’s moment?

Author:: George Pagoulatos and Spyros Blavoukos
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The United Nations missed its opportunity to shine with the Covid-19 outbreak and was ignored over the recent Afghanistan crisis. Collective-action incapacity also happens to lie at the core of EU foreign policy weakness in the face of major recent geopolitical developments, such as Afghanistan and the AUKUS agreement. The emerging Cold War global atmospherics suggests an adverse environment for the EU to add substance to its oft-stated objective of strategic autonomy. However, intensifying great power polarization raises the need for a more assertive global Europe capable of effectively defending and sustaining a rules-based global multilateral system. The EU’s existence in the world as a trade and regulatory (super)power is best served by a well-functioning rules-based multilateral system, of which the EU is currently the most credible and ardent defender. In the escalating rivalry of the US with China there is no doubt where the European Union’s allegiance lies. Europe has been a steady pillar of the Euro-Atlantic alliance. A trade power and a global leader in combating extreme poverty and climate change, the European Union sees it in its best strategic interest to keep China engaged in the collective provision of global public goods ensuring sustainable development worldwide and preventively addressing the causes of massive migration waves. The EU should grasp the emerging opportunity and assert its own approach, aimed at a dual objective: first, to apply its moderating influence on the escalating Sino-American confrontation; and second, to breathe new energy into a visibly ageing global multilateral system and its frustrated ability to provide global public goods. Meeting this objective rests on two conditions: first, the EU should avoid introverted and short-sighted reactions to the Afghanistan and AUKUS challenges. Second, the EU should take bolder steps to enhance its own capacity to contribute to the public good of international security.
Topic:: United Nations, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Europe, and United States of America

1256. Citizens’ views on fake news and false narratives about the European Union – FACTS project

Author:: George Andreou
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: There is more unison than discrepancy in Greek citizens’ perceptions regarding the European Union. National identity continues to shape and frame the way most Greeks perceive the EU, interpret its activities, and evaluate its role. Participants have a positive image of the EU. However, there is a widespread feeling of disappointment towards an EU that “does not function on equal terms for all”. The general public lacks basic knowledge about the EU and what it stands for, about the respective roles of the Union and its member states, as well as about the ways EU and national officials engage in policy-making. Greeks are very vulnerable to disinformation about the EU, as relevant and reliable information is scarce in the domestic media. Many mobilized citizens feel that information from EU sources is not addressed to all, but only to those who have a strong personal and/or professional motivation. Non-mobilized citizens appear quite distant from information regarding the EU. Lack of solidarity between member states breeds apathy and a lack of interest in the EU among EU citizens. The most effective strategy against disinformation is improving communication between the EU and its citizens, and cultivating trust.
Topic:: Public Opinion, European Union, Disinformation, Misinformation, and Fake News
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

1257. Drafting National Recovery Plans and stakeholder involvement: an opportunity to bolster EU legitimacy?

Author:: Athanasios Kolliopoulos
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) lies at the heart of the Union’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. EU countries should “as a rule” have officially submitted their recovery and resilience plans by 30 April 2021. However, this deadline is flexible. The European Commission called on member states to ensure that the national plans are fully implemented in a timely manner and in thorough dialogue with social partners, civil society and other stakeholders. In the RRF Regulation, stakeholder involvement is not a legal requirement, nor one of the assessment criteria. The “light conditionality” attached to RRF plans and the low stakeholder involvement once again raise legitimacy concerns.
Topic:: European Union, Legitimacy, and Stakeholders
Political Geography:: Europe

1258. Greece, Russia and the EU: The Way Forward

Author:: George Tzogopoulos
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The visit of PM Mitsotakis to Sochi could open a new chapter in Greek-Russian relations as bilateral deals are in the pipeline. The Greek position is firm and unchanging: a normalization of EU-Russian relations would be in Europe’s best interests. The Greek government might be prepared to help bring about a new EU-Russia dialogue. The strengthening of Greek-American relations will not prevent Greece from employing a multidimensional foreign policy, vis-à-vis Russia, too. Stronger Greek-Russian relations could send a message to Turkey that some of its regional policies are alienating other actors. Greek-Russian relations enjoy greater historical depth than Turkish-Russian relations. While its strategic commitment to NATO and the EU remains steadfast, Greece is a valuable partner for Russia. Greece is in the process of diversifying its sources of natural gas imports, but considers Russia a critical market.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Imports
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Greece

1259. Germany’s New Government Coalition: A Red, Yellow or Green Light for German-Turkish Relations?

Author:: Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: After the national elections of 26 September 2021, the SPD, Greens and FDP formed for the first time in German history a three-party coalition. The new chancellor is Olaf Scholz (SPD), while the minister of foreign affairs is a woman, Annalena Baerbock (Greens), for the first time. The coalition agreement mentions Turkey only as an “important neighbor of the EU” and speaks of “worrying domestic political developments and foreign policy tensions.” During the election campaign, the Greens and Baerbock spoke of a value-based foreign policy guided by human rights, ecological issues and democratic standards would be guiding principles. Baerbock has been critical of Turkey: after it left the Istanbul Convention, for instance, or over the refugee deal and “violations of human rights and the rule of law.” The Greens remain the only party in the Bundestag, which still views the revival of Turkey’s EU accession process as a possibility. The Greens, and the FDP in particular, want to intensify exchanges between the two countries with civil society and youth exchange programs. The new Bundestag is the most diverse ever, with more German-Turks in parliament than ever before (18/19), and a German-Turk holding a ministerial position (agriculture) for the first time. Greens and FDP voters expect a harsher stance on countries like Turkey: a pragmatic approach à la Merkel would disappoint them. The future of bilateral relations will also depend on how cooperative or confrontational a position Turkey adopts. A best-case scenario is also possible: the next elections put a reformist government in power in Turkey, which will then be supported by the new German administration.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
Political Geography:: Turkey and Germany

1260. A European Civil Protection Union: Maturing out of necessity

Author:: Spyros Blavoukos and Panos Politis-Lamprou
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Natural or human-made disasters ignore borders, enthusing a common European response to civil protection. The EU is incrementally assuming a more active role in the field of civil protection, especially with the recent establishment of the rescEU. Historically, European cooperation in the field of civil protection has been slow, because of national sovereignty concerns. Differentiated integration is a -suboptimal- way of extending EU competences in civil protection; it speeds up the process, but it limits the potential benefits of the envisaged economies of scale and does not address sufficiently the negative externalities of disasters. Operation-wise, the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) frame can provide opportunities for the development of common -interoperable- capabilities, like, for example, European fire-fighting planes and helicopters. Closer cooperation in the field of civil protection paves the way for closer security cooperation and allows the promotion of the EU’s soft power around the world.
Topic:: Sovereignty, European Union, Soft Power, and Civil Protection
Political Geography:: Europe

1261. Give Lisbon a chance: How to improve EU foreign policy

Author:: Fraser Cameron
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: After almost three decades of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and a decade since the establishment of the European External Action Service (EEAS), it is high time to assess whether EU foreign policy has indeed become “more visible, more coherent and more effective”, as stated in the Lisbon Treaty. Despite most media and experts having a rather disdainful view, there have been some successes. And the increasingly bleak geopolitical situation has a led to growing recognition in EU member states that they must try and work together if Europe is to become an international actor, defend multilateralism and maximise its influence on the world stage. But that understanding has not always been on display in recent years. Clearly, there remain significant challenges in coordinating the foreign policies of 27 member states, each with their own interests, traditions and capabilities. Fraser Cameron (EPC Senior Adviser), therefore, argues that the EU should have more modest ambitions. Instead of harbouring grand ideas, it could take small yet concrete steps in the direction of a more coherent and effective EU foreign policy. In this Policy Brief, he puts forward ten practical ideas.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe

1262. Turning a new vision into reality: What next for the EU’s role in health?

Author:: Simona Guagliardo
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, health has become a top priority for EU leaders. The first steps to revamp and strengthen the EU health agenda have been taken. However, to ‘build back better’ and make the most out of EU action in health, Europe must now lay the foundations for more resilient national health systems while centering the recovery on people’s well-being. All of this should be underpinned by a serious reflection on how the EU can bring added value. In this Policy Brief, Simona Guagliardo proposes how this vision can turn into reality: Despite its limited competences, the EU can support member states in making their national healthcare systems more effective, accessible, and resilient, for instance, by encouraging them to prioritise investments in health system reforms in the context of the 2021 European Semester and the Recovery and Resilience Facility. People’s health and well-being should be at the core of all policymaking. The EU must move away from only measuring progress in terms of economic growth. A reflection on the feasibility and desirability of transferring some health competences to the EU level can no longer be ignored. The Conference on the Future of Europe should serve as a platform to engage with citizens and civil society and start the debate on levelling up the EU’s role in health policy. The COVID-19 pandemic will not be the last pandemic Europe will ever have to face. Any tangible progress that the EU27 achieves in building a robust Health Union will not only be invaluable for managing today’s crisis, but also for preparing for future – and perhaps even more severe – health challenges.
Topic:: Civil Society, Health Care Policy, European Union, Public Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

1263. Will corporate debt choke the post-COVID-19 recovery?

Author:: Frederico Mollet
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Europe’s economic recovery is threatened by the corporate debt overhang created in the wake of the pandemic. Even as vaccines roll out, Europe faces the prospect of a prolonged retrenchment as indebted firms pull back investments and repair their balance sheets. Insolvency procedures have gradually improved over the past decade in Europe, but decisive and swift public action is needed to take advantage of these reforms. Given the scale of the crisis, Frederico Mollet argues in favour of a comprehensive European restructuring strategy. EU member states and the Commission must step in to provide the resources, guidance, and coordination necessary to push through this monumental restructuring. This strategy would furthermore benefit from common European guidelines and criteria for creditors and debtors. It will not only increase the likelihood of success but also protect the level playing field. Lack of a clear strategy and coordinated approach will result in a drawn-out restructuring process that pushes too many viable firms into liquidation and permanently hampers the economic recovery. Centring on private restructurings would also minimise the use of public funds at a time when governments have to deal with multiple competing fiscal pressures.
Topic:: Debt, Political Economy, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: Europe

1264. Updating the European industrial strategy for the post-pandemic world

Author:: Marta Pilati and Frederico Mollet
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: On 27 April, the European Commission is expected to publish an update to their 2020 Industrial Strategy, a blueprint for an assertive European industrial policy that drives the digital and green transitions. While the current strategy’s broad principles continue to hold, it must now adapt to the post-pandemic world’s challenges. Furthermore, the original strategy only provided a high-level roadmap, with many areas requiring further development. Frederico Mollet and Marta Pilati break down European industry’s weaknesses and potential areas of success, the effects of COVID-19 this past year, key points of the 2020 Industrial Strategy and its relevance for Europe and beyond. They outline 16 recommendations which would strengthen the design and implementation of the programmes outlined in the current strategy, across four themes: finance, industrial ecosystems and alliances, technology transfer, and strategic autonomy.
Topic:: Development, Political Economy, European Union, Digital Economy, Green Technology, Industry, COVID-19, Strategic Autonomy, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe

1265. The Industrial Strategy refresh: A new opportunity to reboot the EU’s industrial innovation performance

Author:: Alison Hunter
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The EU’s forthcoming Industrial Strategy update aims to put Europe’s industry at the core of the Union’s efforts to improve competitiveness. To achieve this, the Union must upgrade its policy and investment framework in a way that supports collaboration on industrial innovation across the EU. Although the EU has made some gains when it comes to boosting industrial innovation, recently, a disjointed framework has begun to emerge with two separate ‘tiers’ of support: one geared towards key industry initiatives, such as Industrial Alliances and Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEIs); the other towards place-based industrial innovation, driven primarily by EU regions, such as Cluster Collaborations and Smart Specialisation Partnerships. To maximise the impact of these collaborative efforts and to generate a connected, Europe-wide industrial ecosystem, we need an industrial innovation pipeline for the whole of the EU. Amid growing concerns about an uneven recovery from the pandemic, the EU cannot afford to perpetuate the current innovation divide or widen the distance between industrial winners and losers. The new Industrial Strategy update should, therefore: spearhead efforts to close the gap between the EU’s ‘Tier 1’ and ‘Tier 2’ industrial innovation support landscape; improve the analysis of the barriers that prevent many EU regional industrial innovation systems from flourishing; and promote an ‘Innovation Everywhere’ agenda, focusing on EU territories where industrial innovation continues to fall behind.
Topic:: Political Economy, European Union, Innovation, and Industry
Political Geography:: Europe

1266. China’s grand industrial strategy and what it means for Europe

Author:: Frederico Mollet
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In its 14th Five-Year Plan, China has mapped out a grand economic and industrial strategy that upends many of the assumptions that underpin the EU's approach - how can the Union respond? With this new plan, the EU can expect tougher competition and greater protectionism in its economic relations with China. A further blurring of the public-private sector distinction in the country's economic model will make it harder to combat unfair Chinese competition. And while China is actively courting foreign investment, it is also signalling greater protectionism to products not made in China, which will lead to European investors' and exporters' interests diverging. To balance the scales, the EU should adapt its own strategy by: continuing to develop trade instruments to combat unfair competition at home and abroad; ensuring that these instruments and institutions can respond to unfair competition from private companies benefiting from state capital investment; ensuring that the extensive and often opaque government holdings in private firms are reflected in foreign direct investment and export controls; incorporating China's attempts to reconfigure supply chains into its own assessment of strategic dependencies, identifying areas that could become vulnerable; prioritising the improvement of access to the Chinese market for goods and services produced in Europe; developing alternative sources of growth, and boost demand and reduce barriers within the Single Market to offset greater Chinese protectionism; and ensuring that its industrial policy efforts will enable European industry to match China's developments. The present moment may mark a turning point in EU–China relations: in a little over three months, an agreement on an investment treaty was followed by sanctions and countersanctions. Geopolitical conflict ratchets up between China and the US. Beijing's new economic course will reshape its global relationships. China's protectionist turn and growing one-sided dependencies will threaten Europe's long-term strategic autonomy and undercut any attempts to construct a balanced approach to EU–China relations. If the EU's multi-track strategy is to work, a concerted effort is required to preserve economic parity and balance between the two powers.
Topic:: International Relations, Political Economy, European Union, Grand Strategy, Industry, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

1267. Recovery and reform in the EU’s most vulnerable regions

Author:: Alison Hunter and Marta Pilati
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Europe’s most vulnerable regions, characterised by persistent low growth and poverty, face a systemic lack of specific EU support. These regions display particularly high levels of vulnerability to the social, economic and territorial impacts of COVID-19, which will affect their recovery trajectories. They risk being left further behind in the EU’s complex pathway towards ‘a green and digital recovery’. The Union’s lack of focus and action for investing in these most vulnerable regions must be addressed. First and foremost, EU institutions and member states should recognise that some territories will struggle much more than others in their recovery trajectories. Ignoring their plight would have potentially far-reaching consequences. The EU’s ‘convergence machine’ could be damaged irreparably, with long-term – and potentially political – consequences. Alison Hunter and Marta Pilati continue their extensive research on the Union’s low-growth, poor regions, calling for the founding of a specific EU initiative to support them as well as further targeting by the existing policy architecture. In particular, they recommend: creating an EU policy space for regions experiencing long-term low growth and poverty, to promote the value and visibility of place-based support; aligning Cohesion Policy and the Recovery and Resilience Facility for improved policy coherence and greater investment impact; and tailoring support for growth-enhancing reforms in the EU’s most vulnerable regions. The EU’s green and digital recovery strategy fails to account for the specific needs of its poor and low-growth regions. Existing disparities and fragmentation challenges across the Union could widen or even become entrenched, casting new doubts on the EU’s ability and commitment to strengthen its convergence agenda and execute a just transition. The fallout could lead to a rise in territorial and political tensions while leaving many vulnerable places behind. Hunter and Pilati outline an agenda for a new EU initiative that champions reform support for these vulnerable territories and improves their prospects for a digital and green recovery.
Topic:: Political Economy, Poverty, Reform, European Union, Digital Economy, Economic Growth, Green Technology, Recovery, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: Europe

1268. How to get European businesses to digitalise

Author:: Frederico Mollet
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Europe’s underperforming tech sector and reliance on foreign technologies has long alarmed its policymakers. But a significant – and often overlooked – factor in the EU’s economic underperformance over the last two decades is its slow business digitalisation. EU industry, especially SMEs, struggles with the prosaic challenge of integrating digital technologies into its business models and operations. The preoccupation tends to be on how to foster new digital start-ups. But what about the digitalisation of existing firms? The EU budget and recovery fund are armed with a range of new EU funding streams and programmes to tackle this challenge. With its 2030 targets and new policy framework, the EU aims to catch up with the previous generation of digital technologies and ensure that it does not miss out on the next wave of transformational change. Otherwise, Europe will fall behind its economic competitors even further. But there are still some gaps in the EU’s game plan for business digitalisation. Frederico Mollet outlines several areas where the new policy framework can be optimised, and new initiatives would be worthwhile: Additional funding should be mobilised from Cohesion Policy funds. Business digitalisation is a critical factor in regional convergence, and so an increased funding share would be in line with the policy’s main objectives. The Commission should use its coordinating and convening powers to get banks to commit to a best practice code, to assess digitalisation loans and improve their staff’s digital knowledge. Public authorities should leverage private partners. Many firms lack the awareness and information necessary to digitalise, but a number of ‘access points’ and private sector networks (e.g. finance providers, B2B businesses, supply chain networks) can reach them. The EU should consider complementing the design and implementation of European Digital Innovation Hubs and transition pathways – its main programmes for supporting business digitalisation directly – with 5 additional components. Taken together, these recommendations will bolster the funding available for business digitalisation, tackle some of the critical barriers to finance, and optimise the delivery of the Commission’s programmes.
Topic:: Political Economy, Science and Technology, European Union, Business, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Europe

1269. Rethinking EU economic governance: The Stability and Growth Pact

Author:: Francesco De Angelis and Frederico Mollet
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: It is time to reimagine the EU’s economic governance. In early 2021, the EPC set out to do just that in its Rethinking EU Economic Governance Task Force. Drawing on insights from participating experts, academics and policymakers, this first Policy Brief in a series of EPC publications outlines how the debate on the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), the EU’s framework for fiscal and macroeconomic surveillance, has evolved and the reform options that have surfaced. There is broad dissatisfaction with the SGP and how it has fared in an environment of prolonged low-interest rates, missed inflation targets and low growth. In February 2020, the European Commission launched a review of the SGP in an attempt to address its shortcomings, but it was quickly put on hold by COVID-19, when the fiscal rules were suspended. Half a year later, the Commission is finishing what it started. We are in a drastically different world since the European Commission launched the review. Not only has government debt increased significantly, but regional, economic and social divides have worsened, policymakers face inflationary pressures for the first time in decades, and the Recovery and Resilience Facility and accompanying EU-level bond issuance fundamentally changed the EU’s economic architecture. In parallel, there is a widespread acknowledgement that averting, as well as adapting to, the climate crisis requires a steep increase in public investment. Thanks to the EPC Task Force’s ongoing work, Francesco De Angelis and Frederico Mollet can pinpoint the SGP’s major flaws, post-COVID-19 challenges, and five broad categories of reform options: Interpretative flexibility to smooth fiscal adjustment paths and potentially place less emphasis on problematic indicators. Moderate non-treaty reforms to reduce complexity and procyclicality and increase enforceability. The ‘golden rule’ to exempt some public investments from the fiscal rules. Central fiscal capacity for macroeconomic stabilisation. Off-balance-sheet investments to increase public investment.
Topic:: Political Economy, Governance, European Union, Economic Growth, COVID-19, Economic Stability, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe

1270. Will the EU’s positive agenda on Turkey amount to anything more than wishful thinking?

Author:: Amanda Paul
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: One year on, it remains to be seen whether the EU’s positive agenda (PA), an effort to establish a new modus vivendi with Turkey, will bear fruit. Turkey is one of the EU’s most important neighbours and a crucial partner on numerous issues, including migration, counterterrorism, energy and trade. Yet relations have always been challenging, with honeymoon periods few and far between. Bickering and animosity have become the norm. In 2020, escalating disputes in areas from human rights to maritime claims and military interventions brought the relations to a major crisis. Looking ahead, Ankara’s domestic and foreign policy ahead of crucial elections in 2023 (or earlier), the Cyprus problem, Germany’s leadership change, the 2022 French presidential election and Paris taking over the EU Council Presidency will all impact relations. Amanda Paul gives a concise state of play of EU-Turkey relations, what we can expect and what should be avoided, and areas for improvement. While Turkish membership of the EU seems highly unlikely, neither Ankara nor the EU is ready to call it quits. With no functioning accession process, EU–Turkey relations need a new framework that reduces the chances of further rupture and creates a new dynamic. Implementing the PA should be the starting point of this framework. In which case, the EU should consider the following four recommendations: green-light the talks to update the Customs Union; enhance migration dialogue; continue support for Turkish civil society and independent journalism; and revitalise foreign policy dialogue. 2022 will likely be a testing year. If the two parties are to move away from years of distrust and muddling through, they will have to exhibit political will and acquire a truly strategic vision for the future.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Civil Society, Migration, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Mediterranean

1271. Rethinking EU economic governance: The European Semester

Author:: Frederico Mollet
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In the debates over the future of the EU’s economic governance, the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) usually takes centre stage. But the European Semester – the framework governing economic policy coordination and country surveillance – is also critical. Reforming and strengthening it is vital given the multiple challenges the EU faces, from the twin green and digital transitions to implementing the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and tackling the macroeconomic and structural scars left by COVID-19. This Policy Brief, the second in a series of EPC papers that reassess the EU's economic governance policies, sets out proposals for reforming the European Semester across three strands: (i) integrating the RRF into the Semester; (ii) drawing on the positive lessons of the RRF process; and (iii) improving the effectiveness of cross-cutting policy coordination and the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP).
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Economy, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: Europe

1272. The Proliferation Of Informal Housing In Major Cities In Cameroon: Evidence, Drivers And The Way Forward

Author:: Dr. Louis-Marie Kakdeu and Egoh Aziz
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The proliferation of informal settlements in Cameroon is problematic. A range of factors explain why this is becoming recurrent. Some of these factors include a deficit of housing supply, unaffordability issues, critical market factors, weak legal and institutional systems, and the socio-economic conditions of the country. This article focuses on the roots of Cameroon’s informal housing crisis. Reviewing the literature on the topic, we provide the context of the problem in Cameroon by pointing out some evidence and magnitude of the issue and probe into some historical facts on housing. We then explore some of the negative conduits to the housing problem and propose key recommendations to the government that can help improve the situation. We used the content analysis method in collecting data.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, Regulation, Housing, and Real Estate
Political Geography:: Cameroon

1273. Overcoming The Challenge Of Fiscal Transition In Cameroon

Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: On 16 November 2020, Cameroon’s government published the 2030 National Development 2020- Strategy (SND30), which operationalises the second phase of the emergence vision for 2035. This 10-year plan aims to implement favourable conditions for sustainable economic growth and an accumulation of national wealth through structural changes essential for industrialisation. The strategic objectives to be achieved can be summarised as follows: achieve approximately a double-digit economic growth attain the 25% threshold as the share of manufacturing production in GDP reduce poverty to less than 10% in 2035 consolidate the democratic process and strengthen national unity while respecting the diversity that characterises the country To achieve these clearly defined objectives, public authorities must increase their efforts to encourage local production. In other words, local producers need to be supported and supervised by being rewarded with a package of tax relief measures. The challenge is to promote the “made in Cameroon” and progressively reduce the dependence on manufactured products’ imports.
Topic:: Economics, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

1274. Obtaining Construction Permits In Cameroon: Dealing With The Law

Author:: Dinga Tambi and Henri Kouam
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Infrastructure is a prerequisite for economic development. It forms the backdrop of sustained economic progress, creates employment opportunities and improves citizens’ quality of life. To this end, the World Bank created the “Doing Business Index” to measure the performance of countries. Admittedly, construction permits comprise a sub-category of the overall index where Cameroon ranks from 166th in 2019 to 167th in 2020. This article looks at current legislation for obtaining construction permits, the various parties involved and the implications for Cameroon’s economic development.
Topic:: Infrastructure, World Bank, Business, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

1275. Assessing The Mechanism Of The Issuance Of Construction Permits In Cameroon

Author:: Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The building permit is a preliminary declaration that allows for the verification of a construction initiative in a given locality, in line with the respect of town planning and architectural rules in force. In Cameroon, this document issued by the local council authority is mandatory for any possible new construction or modification of an existing construction. Therefore, any construction without an official permit is liable to a penalty of 30% of the estimated cost of the building. According to Law No.2004/003 of April 21, 2004 governing the Cameroonian Urban Planning Code and the decree of 23 April 2008; the process of obtaining this document has been considerably shortened. Yet, it remains quite complex. This complexity is evident in the plurality of procedures, requirements, norms, offices, conditions, actors, documents, and stakeholders involved in the process. All these are accompanied by the heavy financial burden, time-consuming processes, boycotts, administrative bottlenecks and corruption; all of which lead to unorganized and slow urban development. Moreover, within this complexity, is the reality that such mechanisms differ from one place to another across the national territory; thereby creating some sought of uncertainty, non-uniformity, and lack of trust in the system. The improvement in the issuance mechanism of Construction Permits in Cameroon is very vital for a country that has the ambition to achieve its economic emergence by 2035.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Regulation, Business, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

1276. The Promise Of Digital Health In Africa

Author:: Odette Kibu, Dr. Asahngwa Constantine, Wilfred Ngwa, Charlotte Bongfen, Ronald Gobina, Nkengafac Fobellah, and Denis Foretia
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Digital Health holds enormous potential to improving access to health care services. It has been well documented that the African health sector is facing challenges in the delivery of high quality healthcare both in terms of development of high quality programs and also in increasing access to health care services. Despite decades of foreign assistance, few countries in the region are able to spend even the $34-$40 per person per year that the World Health Organization (WHO) considers the minimum necessary to provide a population with basic health care. In spite of the billions of dollars of international aid dispensed, an astonishing 50 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s total health expenditure is financed by out-of-pocket payments from its largely impoverished population. Interventions that aim at increasing access to high quality healthcare in a cost effective way have the potential to greatly transform the health sector. Digital healthcare technology stands out in the 21st century as a major game changer for the health sector and the African continent is well positioned to benefit greatly since technology can help tackle the rising burden of disease and major obstacles in infrastructure and the environment.
Topic:: Science and Technology, World Health Organization, Health Care Policy, Digital Policy, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Africa, Cameroon, and Sub-Saharan Africa

1277. Market Research: A Key Determinant Of Success For SME Start-Ups In Cameroon

Author:: Dinga Tambi and Dr. Fuein Vera Kum
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are regarded as vectors for job and wealth creation throughout the world. They contribute to generating growth as well as redistributing wealth in both developed and developing countries [1]. In Cameroon, SMEs constitute 95% of the country’s economy and also helps in job creation especially among the youths [2]. This, to a greater extent, means that their successes or failures have significant implications for economic growth. To be successful, and to stand out as a pillar of national growth in the country, SMEs need to invest in essential practices that nurture a high level of mastery of the contextual factors that foster their growth. They also need to demonstrate an understanding of factors that may impede the growth trajectory they require to be the drivers of economic growth which they represent. Hence, it becomes imperative for SMEs to invest in market research. This will help them to grow and develop sustainably and not quickly go out of business. Market research is a fundamental determinant for the success and growth of SMEs. However, this is not always the case in Cameroon as most local investors fail to carry out market research before their establishment and in the course of their operations that can help them grow sustainably. Most SMEs in Cameroon do not survive after the incubation phase. According to business and finance experts, this happens due to the absence of market research and the inability of these enterprises to create a specialized market for themselves and their products [3].
Topic:: Business and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

1278. The Concept Of Africapitalism And The Role Of The Private Sector In Africa’s Socio-Economic Development

Author:: Dinga Tambi and Dr. Fuein Vera Kum
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Development is one of the main priorities of the United Nations. Development is a multidimensional concept that seeks to achieve a higher quality of life for all people. Economic development, social development and, environmental protection are interdependent and mutually reinforcing components of sustainable development. Africa is one of the fastest-growing continents in the world today. The private sector plays a great role in terms of job creation and employment. Constrained by a crippling environment and burdensome government policies for decades, Africa still hosts a majority of the least developed countries of the world. The private sector is said to have a major role to play in Africa’s development, a situation which Elumelu (2019) describes as ‘Africapitalism.’ According to Elumelu (2019) Africapitalism represents the belief that the private sector in Africa has a critical role to play in the continent’s development. For Africapitalism to hold, some basic principles have be put in place. These include entrepreneurship, long-term investments, investment in strategic sectors, and regional connectivity amongst others. Africapitalism lays emphasis on private sector growth as the primary driver of Africa’s development. It calls for a new kind of capitalism for Africa: one that focuses on long-term investment in key sectors of the economy to spark the growth of African-owned businesses, stimulate the creation of jobs, and guarantee sustainable economic growth. Essentially, africapitalism embodies a private sector-led approach to solving some of Africa’s most intractable economic growth and development problems.
Topic:: Economics, Capitalism, Business, Economic Development, Private Sector, and Job Creation
Political Geography:: Africa

1279. State-Centric Approach to Resolving the Anglophone Conflict in Cameroon: What Prospects?

Author:: Francis Tazoacha
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The Nkafu Policy Institute, a think–thank of Denis and Lenora Foretia Foundation, Simbock, Yaoundé, Cameroon, hosted a webinar on January 26, 2021 on the theme: “Can the Anglophone Crisis be Solved Through a State-Centric Approach?” Hosted in partnership with the National Endowment for Democracy based in Washington DC, the webinar sought to know if the ongoing conflict in North West and South West Cameroon can be resolved through a state–centric approach. Bringing together about 68 participants, the January 2021 webinar sought to provide a platform for knowledge sharing and dialogue on the anglophone conflict and brainstorming to see if the state alone can resolve the conflict without the involvement of other stakeholders. The meeting sought to address a widely recognized need for the government of Cameroon to ensure greater involvement of civil society organizations, regional bodies, the United Nations, the African Union, Nation States and international mediators in the sustainable resolution of the conflict. For the past four years, the socio-political climate of the Anglophone regions of Cameroon has been very volatile. The long-standing grievances among the Anglophone population in the North West and South West Regions of Cameroon concerning marginalisation particularly in the educational and legal systems by the Francophone-dominated government led to widespread protests in October 2016.1 The conflict escalated from a peaceful demonstration that was met with a heavy crackdown from the government security forces in 2017. As a result, the situation morphed into an armed conflict with increasing support by the population in the Anglophone regions to seek independence from Cameroun – French Cameroon – as an independent “Republic of Ambazonia.” Since 2017, the conflict has continued unabated without any party seeming to surrender and thus end the war. Despite attempts from the national and international communities to intervene and resolve this destructive conflict, it has nevertheless, resulted in an impasse.2 The government of Cameroon opted for a military strategy from the very beginning of the peaceful protest that quickly changed into an armed conflict. Some pundits attribute this escalation to November 30, 2017 when President Biya, upon his return from Abidjan, Ivory Coast – after attending the 5th African Union-European Union Summit – declared to pressmen at the Yaoundé Nsimalen International Airport that he would put an end to the series of killings of forces of law. He also said he would order in general and the massacres around Mamfe in the South West Region, at the time all claimed to have been perpetrated by “Anglophone separatists.”
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Conflict, Nation-State, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

1280. The Divide between Economic History and History: From Ideology to Methodology

Author:: Gavin Wright
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: I attended grad school at Yale in the late 1960s, when the New Economic History was on the ascendancy. Although the NEH was mainly in economics, the broader field of economic history clearly included members of both parent disciplines. At Yale, history grad students like Jan de Vries and Fred Carstensen could do an economic history track by taking a few core econ courses. There was also fair amount of common cause with a movement called the New Social History, interested in pursuing quantification to write “history from the bottom up.” Membership and presidents of the Economic History Association were about equally divided between the two disciplines. When I started at Michigan in 1972, there were two card-carrying economic historians in the history department (Sylvia Thrupp and Jacob Price), and similar lineups were not unusual elsewhere. The era of coexistence came to an abrupt end with the publication of Time on the Cross by Fogel and Engerman in 1974. The book was controversial not just because of its claims about slavery in the United States — that slavery was efficient, productive, and not all bad for the slaves — but because these claims were presented as a summation of research by cliometric economic historians over the previous decade or more. Even though some of the most robust critiques came from within economic history — consolidated in Reckoning with Slavery, published in 1976 — many historians felt that any discipline that could generate such an offensive brand of history did not deserve respectful intellectual status. In truth, History was probably going its own way towards the “cultural turn” anyway. To the extent that economic history had something to do with this move, it would have been a reaction to the observation that much of the new work seemed drawn moth-like to the discovery of markets and market processes in history, concluding that “markets worked.” Bill Parker remarked on this tendency in his presidential address to the EHA: “From Old to New to Old in Economic History” (JEH 1971), describing the NEH as “a gigantic test of the hypothesis of economic rationality of a system and of the behavior of individuals within it.” Robert Lucas wrote: “The central lesson of research in economic history is that neoclassical economics applies anytime, anywhere.” This now seems like something of a caricature, but for the NEH roughly through the 1970s, Lucas was largely correct. A case in point that mattered to many historians was the agricultural regime of the postbellum South. Works published in the 1970s by Joseph Reid, Stephen DeCanio and Robert Higgs all concluded that sharecropping was not an exploitive economic form, and that any racial oppression that did occur was rooted in politics rather than markets. Small wonder that historians found little to attract them to this style of research.
Topic:: Economics, Education, History, Slavery, Ideology, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: United States

1281. A Policy Matrix for Inclusive Prosperity

Author:: Dani Rodrik and Stefanie Stantcheva
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: One of the biggest challenges that countries face today is the very unequal distributions of opportunities, resources, income and wealth across people. Inclusive prosperity – whereby many people from different backgrounds can benefit from economic growth, new technologies, and the fruits of globalization – remains elusive. To address these issues, societies face choices among many different policies and institutional arrangements to try to ensure a proper supply of productive jobs and activities, as well as access to education, financial means, and other endowments that prepare individuals for their participation in the economy. In this paper we offer a simple, organizing framework to think about policies for inclusive prosperity. We provide a comprehensive taxonomy of policies, distinguishing among the types of inequality they address and the stages of the economy where the intervention takes place. The taxonomy clarifies the differences among contending approaches to equity and inclusion and can help analysts assess the impacts and implications of different policies and identify potential gaps.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Economic Inequality, Macroeconomics, Job Creation, Polarization, Productivity, Inclusion, Workforce, and Production
Political Geography:: United States

1282. Majoritarian versus Proportional Representation Voting

Author:: Ethan Kaplan
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: What kind of voting system should countries have? This policy brief discusses the two main electoral systems in modern political democracies. It makes an argument that majoritarian systems such as what exists in the United States fail to properly represent voters. It suggests replacing the U.S. majoritarian political system with a proportional representation system and shows how this could be done within the context of current U.S. law. Both economists and political scientists have worked on the impact of electoral systems. Empirical methods from economics as well as economic analysis of the incentives created by different political systems have contributed to our understanding of the consequences of electoral systems on representation. Additionally, economists have estimated the impact of electoral system on fiscal expenditures, something we will discuss towards the end of the policy brief. There are two main voting systems in modern democratic societies: majoritarian systems and proportional representation systems. Federal voting in the United States is majoritarian though some states such as Maryland have proportional representation at the state level. In a majoritarian system, also known as a winner-take-all system or a first-past-the-post system, the country is divided up into districts. Politicians then compete for individual district seats. The candidate who receives the highest vote share wins the election and represents the district.
Topic:: Economics, Democracy, Representation, Macroeconomics, Voting, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: United States

1283. EfIP Online Panel: A New Macroeconomics?

Author:: Jón Steinsson
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: There is a narrative within our field that macroeconomics has lost its way. While I have some sympathy with this narrative, I think it is a better description of the field 10 years ago than of the field today. Today, macroeconomics is in the process of regaining its footing. Because of this, in my view, the state of macroeconomics is actually better than it has been for quite some time. The most important problem with macro over the past few decades has been that it has been too theoretical. When I say this, I don‘t at all mean to say that theory is useless. To the contrary, theory is an essential element of a healthy science. But a healthy science needs a balance between theory and empirical work. Macro lost this balance in the 1980s and is only regaining it now. Most narratives about the evolution of macro focus on the evolution of macroeconomic theory and the rational expectations revolution in particular. An under-appreciated part of this story is that the rational expectations revolution shifted the field away from empirical work. This was partly because building models that met the higher standards of rigor set by Lucas and his co-revolutionaries was a challenging and therefore highly absorbing task. But that isn’t the only reason. For reasons that are not entirely clear to me, a very substantial fraction of macroeconomists came to believe that the Lucas critique implied that quasi-experimental empirical methods could not be used in macro. The idea that changes in policy could radically alter empirical regularities (i.e., the Lucas critique) somehow came to be interpreted to mean that the only way to do empirical work in macro was to write down fully specified general equilibrium models of the whole economy and evaluate the entire model (either by full-information inference methods or moment matching). Sargent, for example, placed enormous emphasis on the idea of “cross-equation restrictions.“ It seems that this line of thinking led large numbers of macroeconomists astray in terms of how to think about empirical work in macro for several decades.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: United States

1284. New Directions in Macroeconomics

Author:: Gillian Brunet
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
Abstract:: Without being overly prescriptive, macro research must meet two standards to keep the field moving in a productive direction: models must be tested empirically and researchers must think carefully about how underlying assumptions restrict the set of questions that can be answered with a given model. Models move knowledge forward through rigorous empirical testing. Matching moments in model calibration is not enough—nor should it be considered true empirics. When economics is done well, theory and empirics are complements: empirical research disciplines models and theory disciplines empirical research. In recent decades, macro research has tilted very heavily towards theory, forgoing the feedback generated by rigorous empirical testing and, as a consequence, dramatically reducing the ratio of insight to effort. Macro as a field must value empirical contributions to flourish fully. There has been significant progress in the last decade, but the balance still tilts heavily towards theory. Macroeconomists must stop dismissing empirical contributions as trivial for macro theory to reach its potential. It’s not an accident that many of today’s best macroeconomists stand out for their work in both theory and empirics: empirical work disciplines their theoretical research. Over the past 40-50 years, research in short-run macroeconomics has focused on the goal of creating unified, internally consistent models of the macroeconomy. While this is a worthy goal, it has perhaps become too dominant—and imposes hidden costs on research. The emphasis on developing a central baseline model to which idiosyncratic features are added for addressing a specific problem discourages many researchers from considering the suitability of the underlying model to the specific question being asked. As economists we are taught that every model is a simplification, so that the relevant question is not whether a model is good or bad but whether it is good or bad for answering a specific question. Yet choosing a single baseline model of the macroeconomy tends to obscure the closeness of the relationship between the model and the question it is used to answer. Often macroeconomists think carefully about the relationship between their question and the idiosyncratic features they add to the baseline model, but many of the assumptions underlying the baseline model become invisible and thus unquestioned. This is understandable given the complexity of modern macro models, but it has high costs. More careful consideration of the assumptions underlying baseline models and their appropriateness to individual research questions can help move the field forward.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Macroeconomics, and Models
Political Geography:: United States

1285. China's Ties with Southeast Asia : From Green Shoots to Sustained Recovery

Author:: Kensuke Tanaka
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: China's rebound happened relatively quickly owing to a large extent to timely macroeconomic policy responses to the crisis. Lagging somewhat behind China, most Southeast Asian countries have now entered the transition from recession to recovery. Some export-dependent Southeast Asian countries shifted their export destination to China to benefit from its early recovery. This switch of export destination to China illustrates China's important role in leading the recovery of the region. Enhancing regional macroeconomic co-operation would help reduce vulnerability of the region and ensure a sustained recovery. Regional macroeconomic co-operation remains at an early stage in Southeast Asia, but possibilities for further co-operation should be explored.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

1286. Chinese Intentions in the South China Sea

Author:: Oriana Skylar Mastro
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: What are China's intentions in the South China Sea? In The 2020-21 Wilson China Fellowship: Essays on the Rise of China and Its Implications, Oriana Skylar Mastro uses a two-part analytical framework to outline why she believes China is trying to establish de facto control over the South China Sea. This means sovereignty over the disputed islands and the ability to dictate the rules of behavior in the surrounding waters. These intentions are detrimental to U.S. and allied interests. Mastro goes on to provide a list of recommended measures the United States can take to prevent Beijing from incrementally advancing its control over the South China Sea
Topic:: Military Strategy, Hegemony, Strategic Interests, and Territory
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South China Sea

1287. Mitigating the Risk of a China–India Conflict

Author:: Arzan Tarapore
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: The Ladakh crisis between China and India seems to have settled into a stalemate, marked by somewhat reduced tactical tensions and continuing fruitless talks on disengagement—but its trajectory could again turn suddenly, even flaring into a limited conventional war. Despite a limited disengagement, both sides continue to make military preparations near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) to increase their readiness for potential conflict. While China proved its revisionist intent with its 2020 incursions, its specific goals and plans remain opaque. The broader political context is marked by distrust and hostility, and bilateral relations are at their lowest ebb in decades. War remains unlikely—both sides can ill-afford the distraction from higher national priorities and have demonstrated a recent keenness to step back from the brink. But, with growing capabilities and unclear intent, and with military operations no longer impaired by winter, the Ladakh crisis may still escalate to conflict. The crisis has been full of surprises. Despite observing major military maneuvers in China, India didn’t anticipate the multiple incursions across the LAC in May 2020. For weeks thereafter, the Indian Army leadership insisted the incursions were nothing out of the ordinary. After both sides agreed to an early disengagement plan, the crisis took a shocking turn with a deadly skirmish in June — the first loss of life on the LAC in 45 years. India also mustered its own surprises, deploying troops to occupy tactically valuable heights in late August, to gain some bargaining leverage. And the crisis also abated with a surprise, with the sudden announcement of disengagement from heavily militarised stand-off sites around Pangong Tso Lake in February 2021. Future surprises may yet occur. This paper argues that the risk of China–India conflict is significant because, even if its likelihood is low, its consequences may be considerable. A limited conventional war would be likely to impose significant costs on India, but, depending on the reactions of its partners, it may also reinforce latent Indian suspicions over the utility and reliability of its strategic partnerships. In that way, even a localized limited war on the LAC may have far-reaching implications, if it incidentally drives a wedge between India and its partners in the Quad. Mitigating that risk will require sound policy settings and astute diplomatic and public messaging from Canberra, Washington, Tokyo, and other like-minded capitals. The remainder of this paper is in three parts: first, why a border war is plausible; second, what costs it would impose on India and how it might stir distrust of India’s Quad partners; and, finally, a framework to mitigate those risks.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Risk, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

1288. Military Competition With China: Harder Than the Cold War?

Author:: Oriana Skylar Mastro
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro begins her paper by emphasizing that U.S. national defense strategy has characterized the US-China relationship as one of great power competition (GPC). Both the US and China have existing relationships in the Indo-Pacific region and are undergoing efforts to foster new relationships there as well. China’s efforts, however, conflict with US military efforts to promote peace, strategy, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific, making them much harder to achieve. Mastro argues that it will be difficult to deter China’s efforts — perhaps even more difficult than it was to deter the Soviet Union’s efforts during the Cold War. She cites the geography of the Asia-Pacific (compared to that of Central Europe), the US’s ongoing struggle to establish a credible deterrent, China’s range of options for nonlethal but effective uses of force, and the lack of US willingness to grant China a parallel sphere of influence to that in which the Soviet Union was allowed to control as evidence to support her claim. Thus, Mastro recommends that the US must avoid relying on the same Cold War tools and competition strategies in its competition with China, despite their success in the past. Instead, the US needs to combat the threat posed by China through 1) convincing China that the costs of using force outweigh the benefits and 2) forging a counterbalancing coalition of allies and partners that are confident that the US will not only protect them from a military attack but other costly behaviors (e.g., economic coercion, diplomatic isolation) that China may leverage against them as well.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1289. Assessing SSR Opportunities and Challenges During the Transition in Mali

Author:: Flore Berger
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: Five months after the coup d'état in Mali, the main questions about the 18-month transition period - Who will be the key players? What will the priorities be? - have been answered. But while the transition period opens up new opportunities, there remain many challenges and obstacles to significant progress in security sector reform.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Reform, Leadership, Coup, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

1290. The Impact of Climate Change on Global and Local Security Governance

Author:: Flavia Eichmann
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: Climate change presents a major threat not only to sustainable development and global biodiversity but also to peace and security. Security sectors around the world are increasingly faced with the challenges of climate security risks, given their traditional role in disaster risk prevention, management, and response - but also in migration and border management, conflict prevention and peacebuilding.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Governance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1291. Impact of COVID-19 on Armed Forces

Author:: Luka Glusac and Ajla Kuduzovic
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: The unprecedented impact of COVID-19 on societies and their institutions has led to a series of extraordinary responses by governments around the world. COVID-19 has affected all dimensions of the security sector, including armed forces, which have been deployed to assist civilian authorities in fighting the pandemic in a vast majority of countries. The objective of this briefing note is to map the substantive impact of COVID-19 on armed forces from two perspectives
Topic:: Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1292. Impact of COVID-19 on Ombuds Institutions for the Armed Forces

Author:: Luka Glusac and Ajla Kuduzovic
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: New technologies simply cannot generate the insight and trust gained through personal interactions with a complainant or a witness, which allows for richer and more nuanced information gathering.
Topic:: Human Rights, Science and Technology, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1293. Climate Change and Its Impact on Security Provision - The Role of Good Security Sector Governance and Reform

Author:: Hans Born
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: While it is clear that SSG/R must play a role in responding to climate change, a greater understanding of how to translate this into practice is required. This policy brief seeks to identify concrete entry points for SSG/R in addressing climate-related security risks, and outlines means for influencing policy in this direction.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1294. Spies and Money: Legal Defenses Against Foreign Interference in Political Campaigns

Author:: Jessica Brandt and Josh Rudolph
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: In recent years, U.S. government officials have normalized a damaging notion: that soliciting or participating in foreign interference in a U.S. election will not be prosecuted. Foreign governments from Beijing to Moscow and elsewhere are watching closely, and unless Congress and the new administration act quickly to close loopholes in the current U.S. legal framework governing political campaigns, every major U.S. election could be undermined by foreign interference that is not prohibited by U.S. law. A new legal framework around political campaigns is sorely needed—one that provides a proactive and holistic approach to foreign interference rooted in the need to protect U.S. national security.
Topic:: National Security, Politics, Elections, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: United States of America

1295. Defending 2020: What Worked, What Didn’t, and What’s Next

Author:: Jessica Brandt and Bradley Hanlon
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The 2016 presidential election served as a wakeup call to the threat of authoritarian interference, and in the years since, many segments of American society—from the federal government to private companies and civil society groups—have taken valuable steps to prepare for and counter it. Congress and the Executive Branch stood up a new government agency and multiple coordinating bodies to protect election infrastructure, while social media platforms have instituted policies to restrict the manipulation of advertisements, label misleading and false content, and slow the spread of disinformation. Working together, civil society instituted new cross-sector coordination mechanisms for election security. Yet longstanding vulnerabilities—including crippling political polarization and underfunded election jurisdictions—persist. A series of high-profile failures to prosecute the solicitation of foreign interference in U.S. elections further threaten to solidify a dangerous new norm. Meanwhile, the threat landscape is growing more dynamic. New actors, including China and Iran, have taken an interest in adopting elements of Russia’s information manipulation playbook. And that playbook is itself evolving. In 2020, Russia and Iran took active steps to influence U.S. voters, engaging in information operations—at times augmented by cyberattacks—to denigrate candidates, sow chaos and division, and reduce trust in democratic institutions.1 New players, including Cuba, Venezuela, and other, non-state actors also took steps to influence voters and attack election infrastructure.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Authoritarianism, Elections, Disinformation, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iran, and United States of America

1296. Adversarial Avenues: Ten Bipartisan Ways to Make a Bill Like S. 1 Close Loopholes Autocrats Exploit to Meddle in U.S. Politics

Author:: Josh Rudolph
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: In his push for bipartisan efforts on voting rights legislation, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) warned that “the lack of transparency in many campaign finance rules provides multiple avenues for foreign and national adversaries to meddle in the American political system.” These loopholes might be called the “adversarial avenues” of malign finance. Manchin went on to explain that this is why he supports two campaign finance provisions included within the For the People Act (S. 1): The DISCLOSE Act and the Honest Ads Act. Manchin is absolutely right. The most comprehensive research on covert foreign money classified by legal avenue more than 100 cases—adding up to more than $300 million over the past decade—of authoritarian regimes such as Russia and China funneling money into democratic processes as a geopolitical weapon. Strikingly, 83 percent of this activity was enabled by seven legal loopholes that were identified in this research and are now being actively tackled by the European Parliament. Two of those seven vulnerabilities would be addressed by DISCLOSE and Honest Ads, which would impose financial transparency on “dark money” non-profits and online political ads, respectively. But foreign powers do not stop there. As President George Washington warned in his farewell address, they bring “insidious wiles” to their tradecraft of foreign influence. Autocrats invent and exploit cunning ways to secure political power, devising creative tricks to interfere in elections at home and abroad, often through some degree of legal participation by people within the target country. Indeed, a recent U.S. intelligence assessment found that in the 2020 election the Kremlin’s main innovation since 2016 was more collaboration with U.S.-based conduits. That is why, in addition to Thomas Morley’s and my year-long research project on malign finance, Jessica Brandt and I worked with a bipartisan team of legal experts to develop legislative proposals that would outlaw U.S. participation in foreign interference. Drawing from this extensive body of research developed over the past two years, 10 policy proposals would further address the “multiple avenues for foreign and national adversaries to meddle in the American political system.” The first five proposals offer ways to more thoroughly approach interference issues already under consideration in S. 1, while the second five proposals introduce new resilience measures for consideration.
Topic:: Politics, Finance, Legislation, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1297. Coordinating the War on Corruption

Author:: Josh Rudolph
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The Biden administration has a historic opportunity to unify U.S. domestic and foreign policy through an aggressive mission to combat corruption and kleptocracy. Middle-class Americans are frustrated by perceptions of corruption at home, while authoritarian regimes are organized as oligarchies weaponizing corruption around the world. While these trends have fueled passionate discourse in recent years, the Biden administration should seek a legacy of achieving actual results by institutionalizing anti-corruption reforms throughout U.S. and international financial, diplomatic, and legal systems, including a formidable raft of new policies and commitments to be showcased at the Summit for Democracy, which Biden has pledged to host in his first year in office. The administration should start with powerful regulatory action to root dirty money out of the U.S. financial system. Within the first 100 days of this anti-corruption reform initiative, Treasury should take ten initial steps, the two strongest being finalizing a 2015 proposal to make private equity and hedge funds identify their customers and publishing the first-ever National Corruption Risk Assessment. After the first 100 days but within the first year of this effort, Treasury should take another seven steps, such as regulating more enablers and writing strong rules for the new beneficial ownership registry. The White House should also work together with Congress to eliminate dark money from politics and work with the Justice Department (DOJ) to deliver and communicate tangible policy and enforcement outcomes that most Americans would see as truly “draining the swamp.” The White House, in consultation with Treasury and partners at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), should push for a landmark international agreement to end offshore financial secrecy, including commitments around public beneficial ownership registries, automatic exchange of tax information, a cross-border payments database, and steps toward a global asset registry, as well as sanctions to motivate cooperation with all the above. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) should scale up support for anti-corruption activists. The Department of State should integrate an anti-corruption action fund into pre-existing efforts, recommit to international anti-corruption initiatives that languished under Trump, and strengthen internal coordination and capacity-building efforts. Law enforcement should pressure kleptocrats by publicizing confiscated assets and banned individuals while reforming global mechanisms suffering from abuse (e.g., EB-5 golden visas, mutual legal assistance treaties, Interpol, etc.). The ambitious 100-point anti-corruption agenda described in this report is achievable, but only if the White House supports it as a top policy priority, including the commitment of resources needed to dedicate a small team to coordinate the work, which could take the form of either a standalone directorate at the National Security Council (NSC) or a task force of staffers drawn from several White House components. To energize Treasury, State, USAID, DOJ, and other departments and agencies at a high level, this team should be run by a White House senior director dedicated exclusively to anti-corruption and a designated senior leader such as the Vice President, coordinating efforts across the areas of democracy and human rights (DHR), international economics (Intecon), the Domestic Policy Council (DPC), and other White House offices. This White House anti-corruption team should be staffed with at least three directors, each dedicated to one priority area: building a global coalition, rooting out dirty money, and showing compelling results to the American people.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, and Finance
Political Geography:: United States of America

1298. How To Retain Election Officials To Secure Future Elections

Author:: David Levine
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: The 2020 presidential election was called the most secure in U.S. history, largely due to efforts to protect the nation’s different physical and cyber infrastructure. This was a triumph considering the physical, cyber, and even human assets that make up the election infrastructure have been and continue to be susceptible to threats. In 2020, many states adopted measures to mitigate threats to physical and cyber election assets like voting equipment, ballots, and facilities, as well as computer services and databases that store voter information. For example, states with close results in the 2020 presidential race had paper records of each vote, which gave them the ability to go back and count each ballot if necessary. Other measures such as pre-election testing, state and federal certification of voting equipment, and increased collaboration between election officials and their security partners helped provide additional assurance that the 2020 election results were legitimate. Unfortunately, analogous measures were not in place to protect many of the people—from state and local election administrators to poll workers and vendor staff—who administered the elections. Due in large part to the incendiary rhetoric from former President Donald Trump and his followers, many election officials were threatened and harassed, and such behavior shows no signs of abating. Instead of taking steps to address this problem, many states have passed or are considering passing laws that could make this problem worse. Georgia’s new law removed the Georgia’s secretary of state—who rejected Donald Trump’s effort’s to overturn the state’s 2020 results—from decision-making power on the state election board and turned control of the board over to a politicized, less knowledgeable body: the state legislature. Iowa’s new law threatens election officials with criminal prosecution for failing to follow new voting rules. And Florida recently adopted a rule that subjects its local election officials to a civil penalty of $25,000 if a drop box at an early voting site is left accessible for the return of ballots outside of early voting hours. The unrelenting targeting of administrators—along with unfunded election mandates, threats, burn out, and fatigue—has pushed many election officials to leave or consider leaving their positions. According to a recent Democracy Fund/Reed College Survey of Local Election Officials, approximately one-third of chief local election officials will be eligible to retire before the 2024 election, including more than half of those in the largest jurisdictions, which each serve more than 250,000 registered voters. Considering what many of these election officials and their staffs endured during the 2020 election cycle, and continue to experience, it would be unwise to simply wait and hope that they decide to hang on. Instead, every effort should be made to create an environment that is as conducive as possible for retaining these unsung heroes of the 2020 elections. The ability of the United States to conduct future secure elections may well depend on it. This paper focuses on measures state and local governments can take in concert with their election offices to help retain as many of their high-performing election officials as possible. State and local governments should have support from the federal government and Congress to help address this national security issue, but if the fight over funding the 2020 election is any indication, they should begin taking steps to address this problem now. Below are ten suggestions for how state and local governments can retain their high-performing election officials. None is a “silver bullet,” not all of them will be relevant for each state and local government unit, and some governments have already taken many of these steps. But in addressing election official retention solutions, these suggestions provide remedies for some of the thorniest problems that election officials encounter.
Topic:: Politics, Infrastructure, Elections, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1299. Regulating The Enablers: How the U.S. Treasury Should Prioritize Imposing Rules on Professionals Who Endanger National Security by Handling Dirty Money

Author:: Josh Rudolph
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: When kleptocrats, foreign intelligence services, homegrown autocrats, and other malign actors weaponize corruption to undermine U.S. democracy, their financial secrecy relies upon the services of ten sectors of U.S. professionals, including lawyers, real estate agents, hedge fund managers, and others. The U.S. government should promulgate new financial regulations—similar to existing rules for banks—that would require non-bank enablers to watch out for dirty money. Regulators should prioritize six or seven sectors of professionals known to gravely endanger U.S. national security by facilitating corruption. Unfortunately, the United States is among the less than 10 percent of countries that do not require non-bank enablers to establish anti-money laundering (AML) programs, which are mandatory for banks. That is, unlike enablers based in more than 90 percent of the world, U.S. non-bank enablers do not need to have compliance officers, trainings, audits, and controls reasonably designed to spot potential money laundering by identifying customers, scrutinizing transactions, keeping records, and reporting suspicious activity to the government. Fortunately, that may change soon, as the regulation of enablers has become a top priority among U.S. lawmakers, law enforcement, civil society, and other stakeholders. President Joe Biden’s memorandum prioritizing the fight against corruption as a core national security interest—and ordering U.S. departments and agencies to develop a presidential anti-corruption strategy within 200 days—included a prominent warning about the threat of U.S.-based professional enablers who move and launder dirty money.
Topic:: National Security, Finance, Financial Crimes, and Money Laundering
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1300. Protecting Women from Intimate Partner Homicide in Post-Conflict Societies: Policy Options for Rwanda

Author:: Clementine Kanazayire
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: This policy briefing note addresses the challenges and opportunities for identifying women victims of intimate partner violence (IPV) who are at an increased risk of being killed by their partners. It is based on the findings of an APN-supported research project and makes specific recommendations aimed at reducing the rate of intimate partner homicide (IPH) against women in Rwanda. During the genocide against Tutsis, rape was used as a weapon against Tutsi women to humiliate and destroy the targeted group.1 The 2003 Consti- tution of the Republic of Rwanda amended in 2015 marked the turning point for gender equality in the country by putting in place provisions, policies, and programs to increase women’s role in socioeconomic reconstruction. Among other actions, it reserved 24 out of 80 seats in parliament exclusively for women representatives. Rwanda is one of the African countries that domestically implemented UN Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace, and Security (WPS). Regarding this agenda’s call for the abolition of gender-based violence (GBV) in all its forms, the government of Rwanda ratified Law No. 59/2008 on Prevention and Punishment of Gender-Based Violence, which was reinforced by Law No. 68/2018 of 30/08/2018 on Determining Offences and Penalties in General, and the Organic Law No. 01/2012/OL of 02/05/2012, which instituted the penal code for marital rape, forced marriage, child defile- ment, and human trafficking. Subsequently, institutions and programs were established for preventing GBV and providing integrated medical, psychological, and legal services to victims of GBV. Over the past years, Rwanda has made important prog- ress toward gender equality and heightened awareness of GBV, which has resulted in an increase in the reporting of cases of GBV. However, given that IPV in some cases leads to homicide, it continues to pose a major challenge. This brief is based on an adaptation of the Danger Assessment Instrument (DA-20), which measures the risk of IPH in Rwanda for women who have already experienced intimate partner violence. After adaptation, a version of DA-25 has been developed for the Rwan- dan context and its predictive validity has been tested on a sample of 424 women living in the northern region of Rwanda who responded to two scales: Woman Abuse Screening Tool (WAS-8 short scale), which assesses IPV, and DA-25.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Genocide, Women, Protected People, and Domestic Violence
Political Geography:: Africa and Rwanda

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