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61. How Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Is Reshaping the Global Arms Market: Implications for the Middle East and Beyond

Author:
Grant Rumley and Louis Dugit-Gros
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Ukraine war is spurring profound changes in the global arms market as Russia, long a top exporter, grapples with battlefield losses, Western sanctions, and reputational damage to its weaponry. Countries that routinely bought arms from Moscow have started considering alternative sources, emerging exporters have amplified their sales pitches, and governments worldwide are seeking to build up their domestic defense industrial bases to safeguard against market turbulence in the age of intensifying great power competition. The Middle East—long one of the world’s principal arms importing regions—sits at the forefront of this new global landscape. In this timely Policy Note, defense expert Grant Rumley and French diplomat-in-residence Louis Dugit-Gros survey the arms marketplace following the Ukraine invasion. They see both opportunities and potential risks for Western states, and argue for steps such as reinforcing Ukraine’s defense industrial base to eventually compete with Russia’s, establishing longer-term security cooperation plans with Middle East partners, and taking action to strengthen the European defense industrial base.
Topic:
Security, Military, Russia-Ukraine War, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

62. The Regent of Allah: Ali Khamenei's Political Evolution in Iran

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During his lengthy tenure as Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei has shown a knack for consolidating power by creating layers of bureaucracy in military, economic, and religious affairs. In turn, he has liberally purged officials who have hinted at disloyalty to him, the Islamic Republic, or its governing doctrine, velayat-e faqih (rule of the jurisprudent). But Khamenei does not lack for personal complexity. As a younger man, he dressed casually, flaunted his love of literature, and composed poetry. And as a leader, he has often demonstrated flexibility—coined as “heroic flexibility” in the case of the 2015 nuclear deal—at times of national risk or strained social cohesion. He has likewise blessed the rise of relatively moderate presidents such as Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani when he thought their leadership would reinforce national stability. In this wide-ranging study, former Qom theologian Mehdi Khalaji details Khamenei’s political ascent, from his role as an influential cleric in Mashhad to his presidency under Ruhollah Khomeini and his surprising appointment as Supreme Leader. Whoever succeeds him, the author makes plain, will inherit an infrastructure designed to preserve Iran’s authoritarian system and suppress rumblings of internal dissent.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Political Islam, and Ali Khamenei
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

63. Arming the Revolution: Trends in Iranian Defense Spending, 2013–23

Author:
Henry Rome
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Islamic Republic boasts a large and expanding nuclear program, the most capable missile and drone force in the Middle East, and a broad network of proxies that threaten U.S. interests. Nevertheless, scholars have devoted little attention to a key area: Iran’s defense spending. Although the data is publicly available, tabulating it is more difficult than one might assume, and three particular hazards await: (1) conversion of Iranian rials to dollars at unrealistic rates, (2) reliance on spending plans as opposed to actual spending, and (3) undercounting. Thus, any attempt to understand Iran’s military spending must scrupulously avoid such traps. In this Policy Note, Iran expert Henry Rome offers the most detailed public accounting yet of Tehran’s recent defense spending, illustrated by charts showing domestic trends and comparisons with regional rivals. The findings show how spending surged following the 2015 nuclear deal and plummeted following the U.S. withdrawal from the deal in 2018. They also suggest that a new nuclear accord with Washington will likely prompt another increase, demanding a broader strategy to counter Iran’s military ambitions alongside its nuclear ones.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Economy, Defense Spending, and Military
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

64. Striking Back: Iran and the Rise of Asymmetric Drone Warfare in the Middle East

Author:
Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr.
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iranian drone strikes, as exemplified by the September 2019 attack against Saudi Aramco facilities, have jolted Middle East leaders and revealed Tehran’s long-range precision strike capabilities. The regime’s large and growing drone force, which can be used for reconnaissance or strike missions, now poses an existential threat to the Gulf states and a direct threat to Israel, as does its formidable missile force. Moreover, Iranian drones transferred to Russia have had a significant impact on Moscow’s war against Ukraine. In the bigger picture, advances in drone technology have produced an inflection point in aerial warfare—comparable to the introduction of manned flight more than a century ago—that has ended the guarantee of U.S. air superiority over its forces and bases. Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. explores the contours and consequences of Iran’s drone activities in this timely Policy Note. To counter the Islamic Republic, the former CENTCOM commander recommends an approach centered on clearer U.S. communication about its goals for the region, tighter collaboration with partners and allies, and enhanced efforts to counter Iran’s drone fleet, along with its ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Drones, Military, and Asymmetric Warfare
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

65. Future-proofing EU security and defence cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Dylan Macchiarini Crosson, Stefania Benaglia, and Linus Vermeulen
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Russia’s war against Ukraine has led policymakers to re-prioritise the European security architecture and the EU’s neighbourhood, including a positive reassessment of NATO’s role as a reliable security provider. As the transatlantic relationship and the Indo-Pacific are inherently intertwined, this once again highlights the imperative of the EU making the Indo-Pacific a strategic priority. This presents the EU with an opportunity to project its values, interests and power, though hampered at present by political infighting and the mushrooming of conflicts in and around Europe. Still, the time has come for the EU to assess how it should adjust its approach to Indo-Pacific security. How can the EU effectively strike a balance in security and defence cooperation with partners to uphold key principles of international law and order without endorsing the idea that ‘might makes right’ in the Indo-Pacific?
Topic:
Security, NATO, International Cooperation, International Law, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Indo-Pacific

66. What should the EU do about violent extremism?

Author:
Dylan Macchiarini Crosson, Tatjana Stankovic, Pernille Rieker, and Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Despite a recent spike in concern about a resurgence in great power conflict, addressing terrorism and violent extremism has driven the foreign policy debate in the collective West for the better part of two decades since 9/11. In the European Union, these concerns most prominently emerged in the 2003 European Security Strategy (ESS) that identified terrorism and “violent religious extremism” originating in the EU’s neighbourhood and caused by weak institutions, conflict, and state failure as a primary concern. The crux of the matter, however, is how this increased attention translates in policy terms. In other words, is the EU’s chosen CT-P/CVE policy mix balanced and fit for purpose? First, the EU’s CT-P/CVE action can hardly be framed according to a binary security versus democracy logic because of the significant emphasis placed by the EU on socio-economic development to address the structural causes of violent extremism. Second, despite the EU’s developmental focus, the language of good governance and peacebuilding, as well as funding for these areas, are key elements missing from the EU’s engagement. In order to remedy the many upstream and downstream diplomatic trade-offs that EU policymakers face in tackling violent extremism, the EU must begin to frame CT-P/CVE as part of its wider endeavour to support sustainable peace. It can do this by formulating an EU Agenda for Peace that once again underlines the EU’s commitment to promoting inclusive governance, community resilience, and social justice.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe

67. Playing the Long Game in the South China Sea

Author:
Andrew Mantong
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the South China Sea (SCS), as indeed the wider Indo-Pacific, the EU is facing a deepening strategic rivalry between China and the US. In the SCS, China has been able to create physical realities in defiance of international law by constructing artificial islands in the attempt to sustain its claims to the disputed Spratly and Paracel archipelagos as well as expand its military projection deep into international waters. The US is still the predominant security player in the Indo-Pacific, but its military presence has an increasingly hard time shoring up American power in the SCS. The security dilemma between the great powers is threatening rules-based multilateralism, which runs deep in the veins of the EU and to a great extent defines its international posture.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, International Law, European Union, Multilateralism, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, Indo-Pacific, and South China Sea

68. Can Alternative Sequencing of Actions Break the Deadlock in Implementing the Agreement on the Path to Normalization between Kosovo and Serbia?

Author:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The dispute between Kosovo and Serbia remains a major challenge to the security, stability, and prosperity of the entire Western Balkans region. In particular, the Banjska terrorist attack carried out by Serb militants against the Kosovo Police on September 24, 2023 (with the support from Serbia’s state apparatus, as per the investigation of Kosovar authorities) underscores the pressing need for a sustainable resolution to the ongoing dispute between Kosovo and Serbia. The most promising path toward such a resolution lies in the full implementation of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization of Relations between Kosovo and Serbia (APN), which was verbally agreed in Brussels in February 2023, because the Serbian President Vucic refused to sign it.
Topic:
Security, Political stability, Normalization, and Disputes
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

69. Kosovo's Take on Cybersecurity

Author:
Vesa Kroci
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
In 2014, there was a notable surge in cybercrimes in Kosovo. The advancement and widespread adoption of technology during this period brought about a more pronounced occurrence of cyber-related offenses. Fadil Avdyli, the head of the Cybercrime Investigation Sector in the Kosovo Police, reported that eight individuals were apprehended in 2012, eleven in 2013, and seven in 2014. The rising cyberattacks in Kosovo provided an impetus to build a new policy framework dealing with cyber security, resulting with the adoption by the Kosovo government of the National Cyber Security Strategy and Action Plan 2016 – 2019. Program of the Kosovo Government 2021-2025 notes that “cyber security is a growing problem, we will engage in professional capacity building for the prevention of cyber-attacks, completion of the legal framework and modernization of cyber protection equipment”. The Kosovo Security Strategy 2022-2027, puts significant relevance to strengthening cyber security capacities of Kosovo and notes that the government “will invest in the field of cybersecurity, critical infrastructure, innovation and technology and capacity-building”. The strategy also includes the Global Cybersecurity Index as an impact indicator, but Kosovo has not been included. In 2023 Kosovo Assembly adopted Law No. 08/L-173 on Cyber Security, which among others, foresees the establishment of the Cyber Security Agency as well as partially transposes Directive (EU) 2013/40 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 12 August 2013 on attacks against information systems.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Science and Technology, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

70. Policy Brief on Women's Agency and Working Environment in the Security Sector

Author:
Dea Fetiu and Dorjeta Rukiqi
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The primary aim of the current research is twofold. Firstly, we aim to measure the agency of women within the security sector and evaluate the extent to which it is inclusive and accommodating towards a gender perspective. Secondly, our research focuses on evaluating the capacity of institutions within the security sector to address gender-specific challenges and to use gender lens within the security sector. Main findings of this report are: -The low application rates of women to join security institutions, primarily stems from the perception that this field is predominantly for men. This perception affects women working in the sector who encounter a patriarchal mentality undermining their knowledge and expertise compared to their men counterparts. Moreover, women often confront the pressure to conform to societal expectations, compromising their personal freedoms and authentic selves; -Women in the security sector are underrepresented in managerial positions and their ambition to pursue leadership roles is harmed by prejudice and perceived gender roles. The undervaluing and differential treatment of women within the security sector hinders their ambitions and self-esteem, leading to a belief that they are unfit for managerial positions. Moreover, gendered domestic responsibilities create substantial barriers for women in attaining managerial positions and assuming increased responsibilities within the security sector, hindering their career progression; This role significantly hinders women's ability to pursue extensive training programs necessary for career advancement, particularly in the military. -There is a trend of underreporting when it comes to bullying, harassment, or discrimination cases among women in the security sector. As this was described as lack of ‘’reporting culture’’, it refers to the discouraging atmosphere that deters women from coming forward and reporting such incidents. As well as reporting mechanisms are perceived as non-confidential. -There is reluctance to address issues of gender equality in Kosovo Police (KP), while there is continouos request from civil society organizations to cooperate and share data and insights regarding womens’ position and gendered working environment in KP.
Topic:
Security, Women, Representation, Institutions, Gender, and Work
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo