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62. Carrots for Iran? Lessons from Libya
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As European and Iranian officials began negotiations December 14 on whether to make permanent Iran's temporary suspension of uranium enrichment, eight former Western foreign ministers issued a joint statement calling on Washington to support the European efforts by engaging with Iran. There is a growing chorus claiming that Iran will keep its nuclear program suspended only if offered significant incentives by the United States, such as security guarantees, an end to hostility, or at least normal relations.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Libya, and Arab Countries
63. Middle East Affiliate Groups and the Next Generation of Terror
- Author:
- Daniel Benjamin and Jonathan Schanzer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Groups affiliated with al-Qaeda are a threat not only in the countries in which they operate, but also at the global level. Al-Qaeda's presence throughout the Muslim world comes largely in the form of these groups; attacks in Bali, Yemen, Casablanca, Iraq, and elsewhere have been linked to such affiliates.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, and Arab Countries
64. The Eve of Decision: Will Europe Admit Turkey?
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay, Mark Parris, and Egemen Bagis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On October 6, 2004, the European Commission released its final report on Turkey's progress toward satisfying the EU's accession rules, known as the Copenhagen Criteria. Although the report stated that "Turkey satisfies the Copenhagen Criteria sufficiently" to enter accession talks, many European counties and the EU itself are still debating whether or not to take that step. This fact serves as proof that Turkish accession is not only a technical process -- defined for other candidate countries as satisfying the Copenhagen Criteria -- but also a political one in which other "non-Copenhagen" criteria and expectations play a role. Hence, even though Ankara has satisfied the Copenhagen Criteria, Turkey's EU membership is not yet a certainty.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries
65. Saudi Stability in the Shadow of the U.S. Consulate Attack in Jeddah
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The December 6 terrorist attack on the U.S. consulate in the Saudi port city of Jeddah, which killed five non-American staff members, was a worrisome display of al-Qaeda's careful planning, detailed timing, and audaciousness. Worse still, the assault contradicts Riyadh's claims that it has contained the threat of terrorism. The incident, which comes at a time of persistent high oil prices, has only exacerbated concerns about some of the most senior members of the ruling al-Saud family with regard to their health and ability to govern.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
66. U.S.-Turkish Cooperation against New Maritime Threats in the Mediterranean Basin
- Author:
- Orhan Babaoglu
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 23, 2004, Gen. James Jones, NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe, praised Operation Active Endeavour (OAE) for its role on the war on terror. OAE is NATO's post-September 11 answer to the question of naval security in the Mediterranean Sea. With the threat of terrorism on the open waters gaining increasing attention, especially in the aftermath of the 2000 USS Cole bombing in Yemen and the September 11 attacks, the Mediterranean basin (including the Black Sea) has become a new focal point for policymakers. The basin lies between three dangerous conflict areas -- the Middle East, the Balkans, and the Caucasus. Moreover, as a passageway between developed and underdeveloped nations, with access to three strategically important sea passages -- Gibraltar in the west, the Suez Canal in the south, and the Turkish Straits in the north -- the Mediterranean gives terrorists, human traffickers, and drug and arms smugglers easy access to the long and difficult to patrol coastlines of Europe. Is the West doing an adequate job of confronting the new threats in the Mediterranean? What role does the U.S.-Turkish alliance play in this enterprise?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Yemen, Arab Countries, and Balkans
67. From Falluja to Elections: A View from Iraq
- Author:
- Ghassan al-Atiyyah
- Publication Date:
- 12-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The forces at play in Iraqi politics have changed over the past seventeen months. There is a glaring absence of moderate Iraqis throughout the political scene, within all three major ethno-religious groups -- Shiites, Sunni Arabs, and Kurds. The interim government has perpetuated the dominance of the same seven prominent political parties that controlled the Iraqi Governing Council before the June 2004 transfer of sovereignty. Those outside this elite group of parties, especially Sunni Arabs, are frustrated at the perception that their voices are not being heard.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
68. Faces of Battle: The Insurgents in Falluja
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The military outcome of the long-anticipated coalition operation to break the insurgents' control of the city of Falluja was never in doubt. Only the speed of the operation and the casualties inflicted and taken were in question. Ultimately, of course, it remains to be seen if Iraqi and coalition forces can prevent the insurgents from reestablishing a presence in the city. Nevertheless, the fight for Falluja tells us much about the maturing resistance that U.S. and Iraqi troops now face in Iraq. While there are unlikely to be any more battles like Falluja, there will be no cheap or easy victories over the resistance in the battles to come.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
69. Analyzing King Abdullah's Change in the Line of Succession
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Jordan's King Abdullah stripped his younger half brother Hamzeh of the latter's position as crown prince yesterday. He has not yet named a new successor, though by the terms of the Jordanian constitution Abdullah's ten-year-old son Hussein would automatically inherit the throne.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, and Jordan
70. Clarifying and Strengthening the Iran-European Nuclear Accord
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 25, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors will meet to consider Iran's nuclear program, in light of the November 14 Paris Accords between Iran and Britain, France, and Germany (the E3). If the Paris Accords are going to work as a stepping-stone toward ending Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions -- rather than as a stalling tactic while Iran makes progress on that program -- several steps will be necessary to clarify and build on the Paris Accords.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Paris, France, Germany, and Arab Countries
71. How to Win the Battle of Ideas in the War on Terror
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- President George W. Bush will enter his second term leading a country that is at war on five fronts at once. Four are clear: in Iraq and Afghanistan, against al-Qaeda and its global affiliates, and within the homeland. The fifth front, however, is the poor stepsister to the other four. It is being fought with an arsenal of outmoded and dysfunctional weaponry, a set of confused and self-defeating battlefield tactics, and no clear strategy for victory. Such is the status of the U.S. effort to fight the "battle of ideas" -- the ideological war to prevent Islamists and their sympathizers from capturing the social, cultural, economic, and political high ground in Muslim societies around the world.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
72. The Iraq Conference in Egypt: Aims, Risks, and Approaches
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 22-23, officials from several countries will hold a conference in Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt, regarding Iraq's future. The meeting will represent the first major international event focused on Iraq since the reelection of President George W. Bush and the resignation of U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell. Though organized to improve international assistance to Iraq, the conference promises risks as well as rewards.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt
73. Inside Hizballah's al-Manar Television
- Author:
- Avi Jorisch and Salamech Nematt
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Al-Manar, the official television station of Hizballah, is cited in public opinion polling in some Arab countries as one of the most widely used sources of news on the Arab-Israeli conflict. With ground stations in Lebanon and programming broadcast on seven satellites worldwide, al-Manar is watched by fifteen million viewers daily and has the look of an advanced television network. The professional appearance, however, is not at all complemented by professional, fair, and balanced journalism.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries
74. The UAE after Sheikh Zayed: Tensions between Tribe and State
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The November 2 death of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan -- president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and ruler of its largest emirate, Abu Dhabi -- had been widely anticipated, and the succession of his eldest son, Khalifa, to both positions has been smooth and faster than expected. Yet, filling the gap left by the man whom local newspapers describe as "visionary" and "sage of the Arab world" is likely to challenge both the al-Nahyan family and its relations with the ruling families in the other emirates.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arab Countries, and Abu Dhabi
75. Establishing a National Intelligence Director: Directing U.S. Intelligence Efforts in the Post-September 11 Era
- Author:
- Michael Jacobson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- After an extended absence from public view, Osama bin Laden reappeared in video excerpts aired on al-Jazeera several days before the November 2 election, issuing warnings to the U.S. public about al-Qaeda's intention to continue striking the United States. The incident raises new questions about the extent to which bin Laden is directing terrorist operatives and operations. In recent months, many experts have opined that he is no longer in complete control, and that the groups affiliated with al-Qaeda are operating more independently, with bin Laden's organization serving predominately as a source of inspiration.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries
76. Blair's Visit to Washington: British Politics and the Peace Process
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- British prime minister Tony Blair arrives in Washington on November 11 -- the first foreign leader to visit following President George W. Bush's reelection. The visit confirms Britain's status as America's most supportive ally and Blair's status as the president's closest foreign confidant. But the British leader is likely to use the two days of talks to place distance between himself and Bush. Unless obscured by diplomatic platitudes, the public differences will be most acute over the pace and direction of the Middle East peace process.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- America, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
77. Judgment Day: The Second Battle of Falluja
- Author:
- Jeffrey White
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Coalition and Iraqi government forces are moving to retake Falluja from insurgents who have held the city since April 2004. On the evening of November 8, U.S. troops with large-scale air support began to penetrate at several points, encountering some resistance. The coalition and the Iraqi government are gambling that they can break the insurgents hold on the city with acceptable losses and without a protracted battle. The insurgents are hoping to avoid annihilation, inflict embarrassing losses, create an image of wanton destruction by the coalition and government forces, and force an inconclusive end to the fighting. Indeed, Falluja has become a kind of "Stalingrad on the Euphrates" -- a city imbued with political, military, and symbolic consequence, and a battle whose outcome will have long-term implications.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
78. The Patriot Act and Middle Eastern Terrorists
- Author:
- Michael Jacobson
- Publication Date:
- 11-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- FBI officials recently announced that they are trying to retrace the steps of Dhiren Barot, a suspected al-Qaeda operative who spent time in New Jersey in 2000 and 2001. The FBI is particularly focused on determining whether any of Barot's associates remain in the area. Recently, however, the bureau's ability to investigate this and other international terrorist networks was potentially curtailed when a federal court ruled that a key investigative tool -- a special subpoena referred to as a "National Security Letter" (NSL) -- was unconstitutional. The type of NSL at issue in this case allowed the FBI to obtain customer information from email and internet companies without judicial review and prohibited the companies from ever disclosing that they received an NSL. It is difficult to gauge the full extent to which this ruling will affect the FBI's counterterrorism efforts, since the Department of Justice (DOJ) has released so little information about how it has used NSLs. The DOJ has been equally secretive in its use of many other legal tools established or enhanced by the USA PATRIOT Act. This reticence continues to undermine public confidence in the legislation's necessity, in addition to raising serious civil liberties concerns.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
79. The Iraqi Security Forces (Part II): Challenges and Concerns
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The U.S.-led coalition and the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG) have had to confront both bureaucratic red tape and insurgent terrorism in their effort to recruit, train, and equip the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Nevertheless, progress is being made. Equipment is arriving, ISF personnel are being trained, and the flow of new recruits (motivated by the prospect of stable employment and, in many cases, patriotic pride) continues in the face of terrorist attacks on ISF personnel and facilities. Ultimately, however, success in creating a relatively stable, if not peaceful, Iraq will depend in part on whether the ISF can surmount the operational challenges it is liable to face in the coming months and years, both in conjunction with coalition forces and, ultimately, on its own.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
80. The Iraqi Security Forces (Part I): Background and Current Status
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The counterinsurgency in Iraq has entered a critical phase: the start of operations by U.S.-led coalition and Iraqi forces to pacify insurgent-held areas, smoothing the way for January 2005 elections. In recent weeks, coalition and Iraqi forces have battled insurgents in Tal Afar, Samarra, Mahmudiya, and Latifiya, as well as Sadr City and Haifa Street in Baghdad. They now appear to be preparing to move against Falluja, which has been described by some U.S. officials as the "center of gravity" of the Sunni insurgency.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries