Content Type: Policy Brief / Publishing Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy / Political Geography: Middle East

201. West Bank Hardball: Fatah's Offensive Against Hamas

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After several political and military setbacks, Fatah and the Palestinian Authority (PA) have waged an effective campaign against Hamas's political, economic, and military position in the West Bank. And as long as Israeli security forces remain in the West Bank, a Hamas seizure of power there is effectively impossible. Although this is an important positive development, Hamas is an adaptive opponent that should not be counted out in the long-term power struggle in the Palestinian territories.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

202. In Her Own Words: Hillary Clinton on the Middle East

Author:: Larisa Baste
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 1, President-elect Obama announced his nomination of Senator Hillary Clinton as U.S. secretary of state. The following are her remarks on key Middle East issues made during the course of the Democratic presidential primary campaign.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

203. The EU and Syria Move Closer

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 14, the European Union is slated to initial an association agreement with Syria. The pact had been on hold since 2004 because the EU "deemed that political circumstances were so far not right for its signature and ratification." These "circumstances" mostly concerned Damascus's pernicious policies in Lebanon, including its presumed role in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri. In recent months, however, Syria has rehabilitated its image in Europe, helping the pariah state end a lengthy period of international isolation. If it is signed, the agreement would be the latest in a series of cost-free diplomatic gains for Damascus in Europe.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

204. The Challenges of Israeli Military Action in Gaza

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the first in a two-part series examining the situation in Gaza as the December 19 expiration date of the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire approaches. The first focused on the challenges the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would face in undertaking any large-scale action; the second looks at the IDF's choices, and their implications, regarding the scope and duration of a potential incursion.
Topic:: Imperialism, Islam, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

205. Security First: U.S. Priorities in Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking

Author:: Walter B. Slocombe, Montgomery C. Meigs, and J. D. Crouch II
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 10, 2008, Walter B. Slocombe, J. D. Crouch II, and Gen. Montgomery C. Meigs (Ret.) addressed a Policy Forum luncheon at The Washington Institute to launch a new strategic report entitled Security First: U.S. Priorities in Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. Mr. Slocombe, currently an attorney at Caplin Drysdale, served as undersecretary of defense in the Clinton administration and worked in the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq. Mr. Crouch, former deputy national security advisor and assistant secretary of defense, is currently a senior scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. General Meigs served in the U.S. army for thirty-five years, including two tours in Bosnia commanding NATO forces; he is now a visiting professor at Georgetown University. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Peace Studies and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

206. IDF Military Action in Gaza: Options and Implications

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the second in a two-part series examining the situation in Gaza as the December 19 expiration date of the Israeli-Hamas ceasefire approaches. The first part focused on the challenges the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would face in undertaking any large-scale action; the second looks at the IDF's choices, and their implications, regarding the scope and duration of a potential incursion.
Topic:: Security, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East

207. Operation Cast Lead: Israel's Assault on Hamas

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israel's current Gaza operation represents the strongest attack on Hamas since summer 2006, and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are creating the conditions for broader military action. Although it is unclear how far the IDF will take the current operation, its attacks are already posing a significant challenge to Hamas. The Palestinian group has no means of defending against Israel's air raids and can take measures only to reduce the effects. Similarly, Hamas's offensive options, while potentially painful for Israel, cannot prevent the destructive air attacks. Although Operation Cast Lead may not aim directly at toppling Hamas, it will certain weaken the organization's military and police capability and hence its capacity to enforce its rule in Gaza.
Topic:: Security, Islam, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East

208. Hizballah Will Defend Iran -- Not Palestinians

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Responding to the Israeli military campaign against Hamas in Gaza, the Lebanese Shiite militia cum political party Hizballah denounced the Jewish state and organized large rallies. Hizballah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah went so far as to call for a popular insurrection against the pro-West regime in Egypt, whose stance was not deemed sufficiently supportive of Hamas. Despite the strong rhetorical response, however, four days into the Israeli operation the organization had still not fired a single rocket into Israel in defense of the Palestinians. Absent a dramatic change of conditions on the ground, Hizballah is unlikely to participate in this round of hostilities.
Topic:: Political Violence and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Egypt

209. Israel's Policy Options in the Gaza Conflict

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 12-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The legacy of Israel's inconclusive thirty-four-day war with Hizballah in 2006 hovers over Israel's current military operations in Gaza. Israel believes its deterrence was lost in that war, and Israel's current campaign against Hamas should be seen as an effort to regain that deterrence. Israeli military officials believe that if Hamas feared Israel, they would not be firing rockets at Israeli towns but would have instead renewed the six-month ceasefire.
Topic:: Islam, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

210. PolicyWatch #1400: Amman Warms to Hamas

Author:: David Schenker and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week, Jordan's minister of information publicly confirmed that senior Jordanian officials have been meeting with Hamas in an effort to "solve pending security issues." These talks represent a significant shift for Amman, since relations between Jordan and the Palestinian group had been frozen for two years, following the arrest of three Hamas members in the kingdom on terrorism and weapons charges. Although the decision to renew contacts with Hamas suggests that Amman remains concerned with Hamas-related activities in the kingdom, the timing also highlights domestic and regional pressures on King Abdullah and the Jordanian government.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Jordan

211. PolicyWatch #1401: Reconsidering Hamas: A View from Amman

Author:: Hassan Barari
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Almost a decade after expelling Hamas from its territory, Jordan is in the process of reassessing its ties with the militant Palestinian group, an organization dedicated to undermining the two-state solution. Although Jordanian officials repeatedly have stated their aversion to dealing with non-state actors, recent discussions with Hamas suggest that Jordanian policy is driven more by pragmatism than principle. Current realities, including the growing strength of Hamas and the waning prospects of peace between Israel and the Palestinians, are propelling Amman to engage in tactical shifts in its foreign policy to protect its national interests. How this will affect the peace process and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas remains to be seen.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan

212. PolicyWatch #1402: The Persian Gulf's 'Occupied Territory': The Three-Island Dispute

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last month, Tehran announced it was building maritime offices on the Persian Gulf island of Abu Musa, reigniting the long-standing territorial dispute between Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Since 1970, the disagreement over the island and the neighboring Greater and Lesser Tunbs has been mired in legal uncertainty and historical claims and counterclaims, hindering diplomatic relations between Iran and the Gulf Arab states. The recent diplomatic intensity surrounding the issue, however, including the UAE's August 21 formal protest to UN secretary-general Ban Ki-Moon, is a significant break from the past, and may be a forerunner to a future escalation. Considering the importance of the islands -- all three are strategically located near the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 percent of the world's oil passes daily -- the dispute's outcome is deeply tied to the interests of the United States and the international community.
Topic:: Sovereignty
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Tehran, Arabia, Island, United Arab Emirates, and Persia

213. PolicyWatch #1403: Livni's Outlook: Political and Policy Options in Israel

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the wake of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's narrow Kadima party victory over Shaul Mofaz last week, Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert resigned on Sunday night. The following day, Israeli president Shimon Peres asked Livni to form a new governing coalition, but if she is unable to do so in the next six weeks, Israel will head for new elections. Regardless of the coalition's makeup, prospects remain bleak in the short term for a breakthrough on either the Palestinian or Syrian track.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

214. PolicyWatch #1404: U.S. Embassy Bombing in Yemen: Counterterrorism Challenges in Weak States

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week, al-Qaeda affiliates attempted to storm the U.S. embassy in Sanaa, Yemen, leaving seventeen dead, including one American woman. The attack highlights the ongoing problem of terrorism in Yemen, where the United States has struggled to achieve an adequate level of counterterrorism cooperation. The challenge for U.S. policymakers is to achieve greater leverage over the Yemeni government, strengthen that government's capacity to counter terrorism, and simultaneously support much-needed political and economic reforms in the country.
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Yemen

215. PolicyWatch #1405: The Importance of Iraq's Provincial Elections

Author:: Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:: 09-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 22, the Iraqi parliament belatedly passed a provincial elections law, ending a long and costly deadlock. Parliament ratified the initial version of the law on July 22, but it was later vetoed by two members of Iraq's presidency council. This time it is likely that the bill will survive council scrutiny because of the compromises and concessions made in the long negotiation process. Nevertheless, passing the law marks only the beginning of a vital political transition that could lead to either a unified democratic state or a fractured sectarian country prone to foreign influence.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

216. PolicyWatch #1406: Stability in Lebanon Threatened, Again

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This past Monday, a Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) transport was targeted by a car bomb that killed five soldiers and wounded twenty-five others. The strike was the third on the LAF since June and occurred in increasingly violent northern Lebanon. In fact, violence in and around Tripoli, the largest city in the north, is now becoming routine. This explosive situation threatens the country's already fragile stability, while providing Syria with an opportunity to loosen the pro-Western ruling coalition's tenuous hold on power.
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

217. PolicyWatch #1407: The Future of U.S. Military Aid to Lebanon

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week, Lebanese president Michel Suleiman met with President Bush at the White House -- the first visit by a Lebanese head of state since 1996 -- and reportedly pressed for a continued U.S. commitment to the bilateral military assistance program. Since the program's revitalization after the election of the pro-West March 14 coalition in 2005, the administration has provided nearly $400 million in foreign military financing (FMF) to Beirut, making Lebanon the second largest per capita recipient of U.S. military assistance after Israel. While Washington continues to back Beirut (the administration has requested $60 million in military assistance for Lebanon for 2009), Hizballah's recent political gains and lingering questions about the future disposition of the Lebanese government will likely prevent the administration from expanding either the quantity or quality of the military requests.
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, and Lebanon

218. PolicyWatch #1412: A Forum without a Future?

Author:: J. Scott Carpenter
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice has decided to skip the Forum for the Future in Abu Dhabi this weekend, a move that will deepen concerns surrounding the Bush administration's Broader Middle East and North Africa (BMENA) Initiative. Although Deputy Secretary John Negroponte will attend the forum -- an annual meeting of G-8 and Middle East foreign ministers -- Rice's absence will signal waning American interest in the region's political and economic reform, and will probably cause other ministers to stay home. Additionally, her absence may fuel ongoing speculation that the initiative will not survive this administration. Rather than letting the initiative fall into disuse, the next president needs to reinvent and reinvigorate this multilateral effort to accelerate badly needed reform. This endeavor will be especially important for countries trying to survive the revisionist challenge from Iran and its proxies.
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, and North Africa

219. PolicyWatch #1413: UN Resolution 1701: A View from Israel

Author:: Oded Eran
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the first in a three-part series examining the situation in Lebanon two years after the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. This series coincides with the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Marine barracks bombing by Hizballah in Lebanon on October 23, 1983, an attack that continues to inform U.S. policymaking in Lebanon and throughout the Middle East.
Topic:: Terrorism, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

220. PolicyWatch #1414: UN Resolution 1701: A View from Lebanon

Author:: Nicholas Blanford
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the second in a three-part series examining the situation in Lebanon two years after the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. This series coincides with the twenty-fifth anniversary of the bombing of the Marine barracks in Lebanon on October 23, 1983, an attack that continues to inform U.S. policymaking in Lebanon and throughout the Middle East.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

221. PolicyWatch #1415: UN Resolution 1701: A View from the United States

Author:: Michael Singh
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This PolicyWatch is the third in a three-part series examining the situation in Lebanon two years after the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. This series coincides with the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Marine barracks bombing in Lebanon on October 23, 1983, an attack that continues to inform U.S. policymaking in Lebanon and throughout the Middle East.
Topic:: Terrorism and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

222. PolicyWatch #1416: OPEC Deliberates: A Saudi Opportunity

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Today, oil ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meet in Vienna to discuss a possible production cut. Originally planned for November, the meeting was brought forward because of falling oil prices. With the perilous state of world financial markets, seldom has an OPEC meeting been so critical for both itself and the world. Although hard hit by falling revenues, oil market conditions give Saudi Arabia the opportunity to show strong leadership, most likely by limiting any production cut. But the oil-consuming nations would prefer no cut at all, so any reduction would discomfit relations between Washington and Riyadh. The kingdom was unhelpful as prices rose above $100 per barrel months ago, and both presidential candidates have called for independence from foreign -- implying Saudi -- oil.
Topic:: Oil
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

223. PolicyWatch #1419: Kirkuk: The Land the Surge Forgot

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 10-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although recognized as a political flashpoint, the Iraqi province of Kirkuk is suffering from a largely overlooked security crisis that has improved little since the beginning of the 2007 U.S. military "surge." The decline in reported insurgent attacks in Kirkuk has been relatively small, dropping from a monthly average of 169 violent incidents in 2007 to 122 in 2008. This 28 percent decline compares with 91 percent in Baghdad during the same period, and the per capita number of attacks in Kirkuk city is actually twice that of Baghdad. Considering these statistics, providing security support for the political process in the tense months and years to come has become a critical priority.
Topic:: Terrorism and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

224. PolicyWatch #1420: Why the Next U.S. President Will Be a Wartime Leader

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The next U.S. president will be a wartime president. Developments in the Middle East almost ensure that either John McCain or Barack Obama will have to manage one or more wars involving the United States or its allies in the region.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

225. PolicyWatch #1422: Win, Lose, or Draw: Iraq Decisions Await President-Elect

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: When Barack Obama assumes office on January 20, 2009, the president-elect will face many pressing issues. The strategic case for careful and active management of Iraq policy, however, remains strong. Iraq has at least 115 billion barrels of proven oil reserves (9.3 percent of the world total) and borders Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. This vital Middle Eastern country could become a terrorist thoroughfare and the scene of future regional wars or it could become a stable and prosperous U.S. ally. What matters now is not how U.S. presence in Iraq started, but how it will change in the next four years. It may be far more economical to finish stabilizing Iraq under the relatively favorable present conditions compared to the unknown and potentially unfavorable situation of the future. Iraq retains the potential to contribute to U.S. policy objectives in the Persian Gulf region and the broader Islamic world. It could yet emerge as a strong democratic state at the center of the Middle East.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

226. PolicyWatch #1425: Interfaith, Oil, and Afghanistan: Where Saudi and U.S. Interests Diverge

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Saudi king Abdullah is in the United States this week to discuss issues of considerable interest to both countries. Tomorrow and Thursday, he is in New York City for an interfaith meeting he is sponsoring and which President Bush will be attending. On Friday and Saturday, the Saudi monarch will be at the White House, where he will be the sole Islamic or Arab representative at a summit of major economic powers discussing the world financial crisis. In a separate meeting with President Bush, he is expected to report on Saudi mediation efforts with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Despite some common interest in all these areas, perspectives differ significantly on issues such as radical Islam and the price of oil. The United States, particularly during a time of presidential transition, should be careful not to concede ground on continuing points of disagreement.
Topic:: Economics and Oil
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, Asia, and Saudi Arabia

227. PolicyWatch #1426: The Problems of Engaging with Iran's Supreme Leader

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad's congratulatory letter to U.S. president-elect Barack Obama was the first of its kind in the history of the Islamic Republic. In his letter, Ahmadinezhad expressed his hope for fundamental change in U.S. domestic and foreign policies. Although some observers speculate that the letter suggests a transformation in the mindset of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, about normalizing relations between Iran and the United States, this is unlikely. Majlis speaker Ali Larijani expressed the widespread attitude of Iranian leaders on November 9, saying, "Whoever thinks that Obama will change the U.S. foreign policy is naive."
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Islam
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

228. PolicyWatch #1428: Is Hamas Committed to the Ceasefire?

Author:: Yoram Cohen
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week, Israeli forces entered Gaza, destroyed an underground border tunnel, and battled Hamas fighters, leaving several militants dead. In response, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired around eighty rockets into southern Israel, including the Israeli city of Ashkelon. Despite this breach of the tahdiya, or ceasefire, both Hamas and Israeli leaders have stressed their desire to deescalate the situation. But considering Hamas's history of violence against Israel, the organization's commitment to the tahdiya is open to serious question.
Topic:: Security and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

229. PolicyWatch #1429: Livni vs. Netanyahu: From One Election to the Next

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 10, Israelis head to their first national election in nearly three years. With the exception of the 1977 election, this will be the only Israeli campaign in which no incumbent has run for the office of prime minister. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni leads the Kadima party, which is neck and neck with Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud party; each is expected to garner approximately 30 seats in the 120-member Israeli parliament. Since their views on the peace process differ, the election's outcome will directly affect U.S. regional policy and the future of the Annapolis process.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

230. PolicyWatch #1430: Military Consequences of a Gaza Ceasefire Collapse

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Clashes, rocket fire, and threats of escalation challenge Gaza's five-month-old ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. In the past two weeks, Israeli forces have reportedly killed 17 Palestinian fighters, while militant groups in Gaza have fired over 140 rockets into Israel. Despite the ceasefire's benefits -- for Israel, the end of cyclical clashes, rocket attacks, and civilian casualties, and for Hamas, a reprieve from Israel's intense military and economic pressure -- there is no guarantee it will hold. As such, it is worth considering how the ceasefire might end, what renewed conflict might look like, and what this means for Israel's long-term confrontation with Hamas.
Topic:: Economics and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

231. PolicyWatch #1432: Syria's Reactor: Can the IAEA Act Effectively?

Author:: David Schenker and Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: High on the agenda of the November 27-28 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors (BOG) will be the November 19 report from Director General Mohammed ElBaradei about Syria. How the IAEA responds to the Syrian challenge may determine whether future urgent proliferation concerns are taken to the IAEA and UN Security Council or resolved through military force, such as Israel's airstrike last year on Syria's Dayr al-Zor site.
Topic:: Security, International Organization, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

232. PolicyWatch #1434: Violence by Extremists in the Jewish Settler Movement: A Rising Challenge

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Becca Wasser
Publication Date:: 11-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Thirteen years after the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, Israeli security officials are expressing heightened concern that a new wave of violent extremism among fringe elements in the Jewish settler movement threatens not only Palestinian civilians, but also Israeli national security and the future of any potential peace diplomacy.
Topic:: Political Violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

233. PolicyWatch #1397: Kirkuk Derails Iraq's Election Law

Author:: Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 7, the Iraqi parliament went on summer recess after failing to pass a critical election law, delaying the country's provincial elections until sometime next year. The failure comes after the parliament successfully passed the law on July 22, only to be vetoed by the Iraqi Presidency Council in less than thirty-six hours. The core dispute involves the oil-rich Kirkuk province, which is currently witnessing an alarming escalation of demonstrations and politically motivated attacks. This forced Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki to send his defense minister and an Iraqi brigade to the region in an attempt to deter further problems. As a result of Baghdad's political squabbling, the desperately needed provincial elections may seem unattainable.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

234. PolicyWatch #1396: Financial Crisis Grips Fayad Government

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayad recently appealed to the World Bank in an effort to bridge the current budget gap preventing the Palestinian Authority (PA) from paying government salaries this month. Despite a three-year $7.5 billion assistance pledge from the 2007 Paris donor conference, the PA remains in a financial crisis, with a projected shortfall of $400 million for the second half of 2008, as reported by the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee in May. Since Fayad's technocratic government has no independent political base, its legitimacy stems from the PA's financial solvency. He has survived ongoing attacks from rival Fatah leaders only because Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas recognizes him as the linchpin to Western donor assistance. If the financial crisis persists, however, Fayad's political future is in doubt.
Topic:: Government, International Political Economy, Financial Crisis, and World Bank
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

235. PolicyWatch #1394: Increasing Pressure on Iranian Opposition in Iraq

Author:: Raymond Tanter
Publication Date:: 08-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Throughout summer 2008, Iraqi politicians tied to Tehran have put increasing political pressure on the U.S. government to allow Baghdad to control Camp Ashraf, the base housing Iran's main opposition -- the Mujahedin e Khalq (MEK). Options regarding Iraqi-based MEK members are limited, but include the following: sending them to the United States; allowing them to stay in Iraq under Iraqi control; dispersing them to surrounding countries, including Iran; or maintaining the status quo with the continued protection of the U.S. military. Since each option is problematic, finding a solution is neither easy nor simple.
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

236. PolicyWatch #1393: Olmert's Announcement Fuels Uncertainty in Israel

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert announced yesterday that he will not compete in his party's September primary and will resign as premier once a new leader is elected. The move ends Olmert's two and half years as Israeli premier, a post he took up after Ariel Sharon's debilitating stroke in January 2006. High-profile allegations of financial wrongdoing have cast a shadow over his administration in past months, and until recently, he pledged he would only leave if there were a formal indictment. His announcement comes at a critical time for Israel and will certainly lead to sense of uncertainty about the future.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

237. PolicyWatch #1391: Can Lebanon's March 14 Reverse the Tide?

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, Lebanon's new national unity government is slated to announce its ministerial statement (bayan waziri), the policy document that will define Beirut's working parameters and agenda through the spring 2009 elections. For the pro-West majority March 14 coalition, the priority will be to incorporate into the statement a reference to UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701, which prohibits weapons movement to Hizballah and expands government sovereignty throughout Lebanon. Hizballah, for its part, will look to maintain the legitimacy of "the resistance." Although March 14 still maintains a government majority, three years of hostility and self-inflicted wounds have left the ruling party dramatically weakened, making it unclear whether the coalition will be able to prevent Hizballah from consolidating further political gains.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

238. PolicyWatch #1389: Hizballah's Military Wing Under Pressure Despite Political Gains

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, Lebanon's new national unity government is slated to announce its ministerial statement (bayan waziri), the policy document that will define Beirut's working parameters and agenda through the spring 2009 elections. For the pro-West majority March 14 coalition, the priority will be to incorporate into the statement a reference to UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701, which prohibits weapons movement to Hizballah and expands government sovereignty throughout Lebanon. Hizballah, for its part, will look to maintain the legitimacy of "the resistance." Although March 14 still maintains a government majority, three years of hostility and self-inflicted wounds have left the ruling party dramatically weakened, making it unclear whether the coalition will be able to prevent Hizballah from consolidating further political gains.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

239. PolicyWatch #1388: Saudi Arabia: Interfaith Talks Abroad, Intolerance at Home

Author:: Simon Henderson and Jasmine El-Gamal
Publication Date:: 07-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, Saudi Arabia is organizing a global interfaith conference in Madrid, with more than 200 Muslim, Christian, Jewish, Hindu, and Buddhist religious leaders from 54 countries expected to attend. The conference, in the words of its main organizer, the Mecca-based Muslim World League, will "focus on common human values." Many in the West, however, will likely judge the conference as a Saudi public relations effort to emphasize its leadership of the Islamic world, and to ward off criticism, especially from the United States, that Saudi Arabia bears continuing responsibility for political and financial backing of Sunni extremists across the Middle East.
Topic:: Islam and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

240. PolicyWatch #1384: Supplicants to Saudi Arabia: The Jeddah Energy Meeting

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This weekend, Saudi Arabia will attempt to counter accusations that it has not done enough to stop rising oil prices by hosting an international energy summit of government and oil-company officials. Invitations were sent after the kingdom -- the world's top oil exporter, home to nearly a quarter of known reserves -- was pressured to take action on prices that have increased 40 percent so far this year. Unless Saudi pricing policy changes, however, the meeting is unlikely to bring any relief to consumers.
Topic:: Energy Policy and Oil
Political Geography:: Middle East and Saudi Arabia

241. PolicyWatch #1383: Domestic and Regional Politics Delay U.S.-Iraqi Security Agreement

Author:: Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While experts negotiate the technical aspects of a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) -- an arrangement that would govern future security relations between Iraq and the United States -- Iraqi politicians are engaged in a rhetorical campaign against such an agreement, making it nearly impossible to finalize a deal by this summer. Meanwhile, the escalating debate now includes Iraq's neighbors, with top Iranian officials expressing their opposition to any kind of security arrangement.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

242. PolicyWatch #1382: Reconciling with Hamas? Abbas's Hedge Against a Failed Peace Process

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 4, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas marked the anniversary of the 1967 War by making a surprise call for dialogue with Hamas. In response to multiple challenges to his authority -- impasse on the peace process, ongoing dissent within Fatah, and regional pressure to resolve the internal Palestinian conflict -- Abbas has abandoned his demands for Hamas to return Gaza to its pre-June 2007 condition and apologize for its violent coup. However, a gulf remains between Hamas and Fatah, and it is unlikely that renewed dialogue can bridge the gap. Abbas's move may be an effort to pressure the United States to become more involved, and to maintain a fallback position if peace is not achieved. Accordingly, his call to Hamas should be seen as tactical, rather than a strategic, turning point toward Palestinian reconciliation.
Topic:: Government and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

243. PolicyWatch #1380: Ahmadinezhad Deflects Critcism with Attacks on Clerics

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In late May, an official close to Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad publicly accused more than forty high-ranking government officials -- including some of the country's most powerful clerics -- of economic corruption. These unprecedented revelations may signal the start of a significant power struggle inside the Iranian government, one likely to intensify between now and the May 2009 presidential election.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

244. PolicyWatch #1378: Ending (or Deepening) the Crisis in Lebanon: The Role of Electoral Reform

Author:: Jean-Pierre Katrib
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The May 25 election of Gen. Michel Suleiman as Lebanon's twelfth president was a central element of the Qatari-brokered compromise between the March 14 coalition and the Hizballah-led opposition. The agreement was greeted with relief in Washington and other international capitals, allaying fears that Lebanon was once again heading toward civil war. Now that Fouad Siniora has been re-designated as prime minister, the Doha agreement's remaining elements include the difficult task of establishing a "national unity government" and holding parliamentary elections in 2009. The new law governing those elections will determine whether Lebanon will have a solid future foundation or if the day of final reckoning has been merely postponed.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and Lebanon

245. PolicyWatch #1377: Treatment of Bahais: A Test of Human Rights in Iran

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 14, the Iranian government arrested six prominent Bahai leaders and accused them of "endangering national security." The timing of the arrests has led some to speculate that the Iranian government is trying to link these leaders to the April explosion at a religious center in Shiraz that killed fourteen people. Considering Iran's clerical establishment believes the existence of religious minorities undermines official Shiite orthodoxy, these latest arrests are just another black mark on Iran's long and dismal record of protecting individual human rights and religious freedom.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

246. PolicyWatch #1376: Turkey Turns Cold to European Defense: Implications for Western Security

Author:: Erdal Tatli
Publication Date:: 06-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In June 2007, Turkey decided to turn its back on European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) after a long series of negotiations with the EU. Although the Cyprus issue has always complicated Turkey's involvement in ESDP, Turkey has been an important actor in Western security architecture for decades, and its withdrawal from the force has profound implications for the United States, Europe, and Western security institutions, including NATO.
Topic:: NATO
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

247. PolicyWatch #1375: Lebanese Crisis Ends: Hizballah Victory or Temporary Truce?

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 21, after five days of mediation, Qatari officials announced a compromise solution to the Lebanese crisis between the pro-Western government and Hizballah-led opposition backed by Iran and Syria. According to preliminary reports, the negotiations centered on presidential elections and electoral reform, yet avoided the critical issue of Hizballah's weapons. Although details are still emerging, the broad outline of the agreement suggests that Hizballah has translated, at least temporarily, its May 7 military victory into a political victory. But given the potential outcome of the 2009 parliamentary elections, the Shiite group's victory may be short lived.
Topic:: Government and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

248. PolicyWatch #1374: Kuwaiti Elections: Democracy in Action, or Inaction?

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji and David Pollock
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Tomorrow, Kuwait's nearly 400,000 voters -- more than half of them women -- will go to the polls to elect a new parliament. The incoming body will replace the 2006 parliament that was dissolved by the ruling emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Sabah, for failing to work together with the cabinet. Kuwait's parliament is relatively powerful compared to others in the region, but tension with the royal family has often produced only deadlock. Still, the elections are an important and interesting exercise in Arab democracy and may even produce a more constructive political environment.
Topic:: Democratization, Gender Issues, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Kuwait

249. PolicyWatch #1373: Bush's Last Middle East Trip Could Be More Than Just Farewells

Author:: Simon Henderson and David Pollock
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President Bush returns to the Middle East this week for the second time in 2008. Initially planned to mark Israel's sixtieth anniversary, his itinerary has expanded to include meetings with top officials from Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, and Saudi Arabia. Except for a trip to Riyadh, these meetings will be held at a World Economic Forum conference in Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt. This lineup prompted National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley to say the trip has "both symbolism and substance" and, considering the urgency of the issues, something of substance may actually emerge.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Asia, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan

250. PolicyWatch #1372: Showdown between Hizballah and Beirut

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, the democratically elected, pro-Western Lebanese government took the bold and unprecedented decision to confront Hizballah. Since its election in 2005, the government had avoided direct conflict with the well-armed Shiite militant political party, but several of the organization's activities -- including apparent preparations for yet another war with Israel -- led the government to provoke a showdown. In response to a May 8 cabinet statement that focused on Hizballah's "attack on the sovereignty of the state," the Shiite organization took to the streets. In the ensuing violence -- the most intense since Lebanon's civil war -- Hizballah began occupying parts of Beirut, leaving the future of Lebanon in doubt.
Topic:: Government and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Beirut

251. PolicyWatch #1370: Special Forum Report: Assessing the Annapolis Process

Author:: Zalman Shoval and Aaron David Miller
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Despite having been practically stillborn, the Annapolis peace process is not dead and has recently shown artificially induced signs of life. It has been continually retooled in order to maintain a chance of producing something by the end of President Bush's term.
Topic:: Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

252. PolicyWatch #1369: Turkey's Headscarf Legislation: The Negative Impact on EU Accession

Author:: Antonia Ruiz Jimenez
Publication Date:: 05-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In February 2008, Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) passed two constitutional amendments that intend to lift the ban on Islamic headscarves on college campuses. Although it is still unclear how the legislation will be implemented, the new laws are likely to have a negative impact on how the European Union sees Turkey. Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan states that the amendments protect individual and religious freedom -- two rights that are guaranteed under the EU's common legislative body. However, as the controversy surrounding the issue continues, the legal ambiguity created by the case could alienate Europe, making Turkey's EU accession bid even more difficult.
Topic:: Civil Society
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

253. PolicyWatch #1368: Human Rights and the Basis for EU Sanctions against Iran

Author:: Emanuele Ottolenghi
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: When the UN Security Council approved the third round of sanctions against Iran by adopting Resolution 1803 in March 2008, U.S. policymakers anticipated that the European Union would follow past practice and enact additional punitive measures. Almost two months later, however, Europeans are still at loggerheads on how best to implement the resolution, with several countries -- mostly the ones with strong commercial interests in Iran -- still adamant that the EU should not go beyond the text of the resolution. The EU could resolve this internal dispute by refocusing its sanctions debate on Iran's human rights record, an issue on which it is often easier to build consensus in Europe.
Topic:: United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

254. PolicyWatch #1367: Tackling Turkey's Image Problem in the European Union

Author:: Antonia Ruiz Jimenez
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In February 2007, the Austrian government became the latest member of the European Union to propose a referendum on Turkish accession, citing "differences in values and standards" between Turkey and the EU. Recent data, however, reveals that these cultural differences are not so pronounced. And at a time when Turkey's EU accession faces challenges, highlighting shared Turkish and European values could greatly enhance the prospect for Turkey's membership.
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Austria

255. PolicyWatch #1364: Iranian Parliamentary Elections and Ahmadinezhad's Discontents

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 25, a second round of voting will determine the remaining eighty-eight seats of the Iranian Majlis. The first round, held on March 14, decided 202 seats and was considered a defeat for both the reformists and President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. His reaction to the setback -- the dismissal of Interior Minister Mustafa Pur-Muhammadi, responsible for conducting the election -- is indicative of the difficult times ahead for the president and his allies, whose public and official support is steadily diminishing.
Topic:: Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

256. PolicyWatch #1361: Who Won the Battle for Basra?

Author:: Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:: 04-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The recent military offensive in Basra was the first sizeable operation in which Iraqi government forces took the initiative to pursue armed groups in one of the country's most politically charged regions. Although the operation was a military success, its political aftermath will be crucial for the survival of both Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government and Muqtada al-Sadr's militia.
Topic:: Government and War
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

257. PolicyWatch #1360: The Damascus Arab Summit: Arab Divisions Ensure Modest Achievements

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This weekend, the much-anticipated annual Arab Summit will convene in Damascus. The run-up to the twentieth summit -- the first ever held in Damascus -- has been overshadowed by the controversy surrounding Syria's role in undermining Lebanon's presidential elections. And Damascus has exacerbated regional concerns by inviting Iran to attend the summit. As a result of these developments, several Arab states have downgraded their planned level of representation at the meeting, dashing for now Syria's hopes of improving its tarnished image in the Arab world. Given these tensions, it is likely that this summit -- like so many of its predecessors -- will fail to make good on its ambitious agenda.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon

258. PolicyWatch #1358: Kuwait's New Political Crisis: Can Democracy Trump Sectarianism?

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 19, Kuwaiti emir Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah dissolved the country's parliament and called for new elections to be held on May 17. This drastic step reflects two distinct sets of tensions, both of which Kuwait has overcome in the past: tensions between the executive branch and parliament, and tensions between fundamentalists from the Sunni majority and the Shiite minority. The conjunction of these divisions is unusual and poses a serious political test for this small but strategically vital state -- a nation that borders Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, pumps more oil than Iraq, and quietly hosts about 70,000 U.S. troops at any given moment. The political troubles have become all the more sensitive because many Kuwaitis suspect Iran of fomenting new sectarian strife within their borders.
Topic:: Democratization and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East

259. PolicyWatch #1355: Will the Turkish Constitutional Court Ban the AKP?

Author:: Soner Cagaptay, H. Akin Unver, and Hale Arifagaoglu
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 14, Turkey's chief prosecutor, Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya, filed a case with the country's Constitutional Court asking it to shut down the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and ban seventy-one of its members from seeking elected office for five years. He accused the party of spearheading "anti-secular activities" in violation of the Turkish constitution. Although the court's disposition is uncertain, the case is likely to strengthen the AKP regardless of the outcome.
Topic:: Civil Society, Government, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

260. PolicyWatch #1354: Cheney's Middle East Trip: Iran Tops a Weighty Agenda

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 16, Vice President Cheney departs on a Middle East trip that will take him to Oman, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank, and Turkey. Coming less than two months after President Bush's trip to the region, the vice president's itinerary is intriguing. His undisclosed agenda with "key partners," in the words of the White House announcement, is likely to include the peace process, the price of oil, Iraq, and Iran. And among those issues, Iran will likely be the most mentioned, especially given this week's controversial resignation of Adm. William Fallon as the top U.S. commander in the Middle East -- a move attributed in part to differences on Iran between him and the White House.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

261. PolicyWatch #1352: Weapon of Terror: Development and Impact of the Qassam Rocket

Author:: Margaret Weiss
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Qassam rockets -- unsophisticated weapons manufactured in garages and backroom laboratories -- have transformed the strategic equation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These crude rockets give Palestinian terrorist organizations the capability to strike deep into Israeli territory, throwing the security assumptions behind future peace negotiations into doubt.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

262. PolicyWatch #1351: Will the Damascus Arab Summit Be Convened?

Author:: Hassan Barari
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the Middle East, it is widely believed that Syria is obstructing the election of a new Lebanese president. Amid this crisis, many are beginning to doubt whether the next Arab League summit, scheduled to open in Damascus at month's end, will take place at all.
Topic:: Democratization, International Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

263. PolicyWatch #1350: Iran and the Road Ahead

Author:: Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recently, two important developments have broken months of gridlock on the Iranian nuclear issue: a third round of UN sanctions and a new warning by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Although both measures are positive, their ultimate impact will depend on how aggressively and effectively key governments implement them.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

264. PolicyWatch #1349: Who Represents the Iraqi Sunnis?

Author:: Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:: 03-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since the fall of Saddam Hussein, Sunnis in Anbar and other western Iraqi provinces have struggled to develop a coherent and representative political leadership. The recently formed Iraqi Awakening Convention (IAC) -- a collective of so-called "Awakening council" leaders -- could represent the next step in that evolution and, if nurtured, make a significant contribution to broader political reconciliation. It will also mean, however, that current elected leaders will have to give way to new local leaders or compete politically with them, since it is pointless to compete violently given the asymmetry of the current power balance.
Topic:: Islam, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

265. PolicyWatch #1347: Beyond Rhetoric: Hizballah Threats after the Mughniyeh Assassination

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In response to the February 12 assassination of chief of operations Imad Mughniyeh, Hizballah has ratcheted up its threats, warnings, and saber rattling. In turn, Israel has locked down its foreign missions, put its military on heightened alert, and deployed Patriot missiles near Haifa. And in Washington, the FBI issued a bulletin to its field offices warning of possible attacks on U.S. soil.
Topic:: Terrorism and War
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

266. PolicyWatch #1346: A Mutual Enemy: U.S.-Turkish-Iraqi Cooperation against the PKK

Author:: Abdulkadir Onay and Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 21, Turkish ground forces crossed the Iraqi border in an attempt to dismantle Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) terrorist camps, following weeks of periodic aerial bombardment that began in mid-December. The incursion was partly the product of a November 5 agreement between Turkey and the United States to share intelligence in fighting the PKK, a group that the U.S. State Department has designated a foreign terrorist organization. On February 22, the White House backed the operation: "The United States agrees with Turkey that the PKK is a terrorist organization, and . . . an enemy of Turkey, Iraq, and the United States."
Topic:: Terrorism and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan

267. PolicyWatch #1345: Timely Reminder of Iranian Support for Terrorism

Author:: Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Over the past several years, Iran's nuclear activities have commanded the attention of the international community. But the recent assassination of Hizballah foreign operations chief Imad Mughniyeh is a reminder that Iran has been -- and continues to be -- a key player in global terrorism, as its explicit sponsorship of Hizballah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) demonstrates. Moreover, a recent terrorism case in Bahrain suggests that Iran's assistance to al-Qaeda operatives may still be continuing today, echoing the regime's implicit support of the group in the past.
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Palestine, and Bahrain

268. PolicyWatch #1344: PKK Criminal Networks and Fronts in Europe

Author:: Abdulkadir Onay
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 13, Frank Urbancic, deputy counterterrorism coordinator at the State Department, told CNN-Turk, "The PKK [Kurdistan Workers Party] is like the mafia all over Europe." He added that in addition to its terrorist presence in Europe, the PKK has an "octopus-like structure carrying out criminal activity, including drug and people smuggling" to raise funds, as well as "fronts that provide cover to the organization's criminal and terror activities."
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

269. PolicyWatch #1343: Headscarf Dilemma: Implications for Turkey and the United States

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 9, Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) passed two constitutional amendments legalizing a specific women's headscarf on college campuses. The Turkish turban -- not to be confused with the South Asian male turban -- first emerged in the country in the 1980s and has long represented an extremely divisive political issue. Turkey's European-style secularism, which keeps religion and its symbols out of government and education, considers the headwear a political symbol -- a sentiment with which AKP prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed to agree in public remarks he made on January 15. For nearly two decades, the secular view had led Turkish courts to ban the turban in certain public contexts. Now that the headwear is permitted on campuses, what will happen next in Turkey? And what implications might this legislation hold for the United States?
Topic:: Civil Society
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, South Asia, Turkey, and Middle East

270. PolicyWatch #1342: Iran's Parliamentary Elections: Assured Victory for the Supreme Leader

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Iran's March 14 parliamentary elections approach, the prospects for the reformist/technocratic coalition are predictably bleak. Yet, President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad is expected to lose ground as well. Although his conservative critics are likely to pick up a significant number of seats, the big winner will be Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose role as arbiter and decisionmaker will be reinforced even more.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

271. PolicyWatch #1341: Pakistani Elections and the Middle East

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After a six-week delay following the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, Pakistanis will go to the polls on February 18 to elect a new National Assembly. Pakistan and Afghanistan are "where many of our most important interests intersect," as Director of National Intelligence J. Michael McConnell told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on February 5. Accordingly, the election results could affect the position of a key U.S. ally in the war on terror -- the increasingly unpopular President Pervez Musharraf.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Asia

272. PolicyWatch #1340: Who Was Imad Mughniyeh?

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Yesterday's assassination of arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh was welcome news in Washington, Buenos Aires, Tel Aviv, and, albeit quietly, Beirut and Baghdad. For Hizballah and Damascus, however, the loss of Mughniyeh -- who was a brilliant military tactician, a key contact to Tehran, and a successful political leader -- is a severe blow to their ongoing activities and operations.
Topic:: Terrorism
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Tehran, Baghdad, Lebanon, Syria, and Beirut

273. PolicyWatch #1338: Winograd Part II: Implications for U.S.-Israeli Relations

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 30, retired Israeli judge Eliyahu Winograd released his much-anticipated second report on government decisionmaking during the summer 2006 Lebanon war. It did not issue a deathblow to Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert, but instead described the breakdown in U.S.-Israeli strategic coordination as the principal rationale for Olmert's decision to invade Lebanon just hours before a UN ceasefire was to be implemented. This analysis has considerable ramifications for the future conduct of U.S.-Israeli relations.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

274. PolicyWatch #1337: Egypt Working to Contain Gaza

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 02-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Egypt has been scrambling to formulate a new policy toward the Gaza Strip this week after being challenged by Hamas, which opened more than eleven crossings along the Israeli-constructed wall that serves as the Egypt-Gaza border. Up to 750,000 Palestinians have flooded the northeastern corner of the Sinai Peninsula since January 23, spending approximately $130 million in local markets, while tens of thousands of Egyptians took advantage of the lack of immigration, customs, and security controls to cross into Gaza. This massive movement of people caught many by surprise and may have serious ramifications for Israel, Egypt, and the Palestinians.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

275. PolicyWatch #1336: Setbacks in Arab League Mediation on Lebanon

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Over the past week, Beirut has been rocked by violence yet again. On January 25, a Lebanese Internal Security Forces officer working with the UN investigation into Rafiq Hariri's assassination was killed by a car bomb. And on January 27, seven Shiite antigovernment demonstrators were killed by the Lebanese army. These incidents come only two months after pro-Syrian president Emile Lahoud vacated his office, leaving a power vacuum in his wake. Despite vigorous Arab League mediation efforts, the prospects for electing a replacement appear bleak. And with no end in sight, Lebanon's security situation is likely to deteriorate further.
Topic:: Diplomacy and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon

276. PolicyWatch #1335: Kirkuk's Article 140: Expired or Not?

Author:: Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Away from the headlines, Sunnis and Shiites are testing the waters of reconciliation in the Iraqi parliament with an agreement that may come at the expense of country's Kurdish population. The Kurdish political reaction to such an agreement could potentially exacerbate anti-Kurdish sentiment among many Arab parliamentarians, costing the Kurds some of the hard-earned political ground they have gained thus far.
Topic:: Government, Political Economy, and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

277. PolicyWatch #1334: Iranian Threats and the UN Sanctions Debate

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 26, Hussein Shariatmadari -- the publisher of Iran's most influential newspaper and a close confidant of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei -- stated that attacks on "Zionists, Americans, and European countries that support Israel," as well as on compliant regional rulers, were both morally permissible and easily carried out. Indeed, Iran's hardliners engage in not only heated rhetoric, but also heated action -- from funding terrorists to ignoring international nuclear mandates. Accordingly, while the UN Security Council attempts to set the agenda with a new round of sanctions, the hardliners may forgo passivity and go on the offensive.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

278. PolicyWatch #1333: Blacklisting Terrorism Supporters in Kuwait

Author:: David Pollock and Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 16, the UN Security Council's "Al-Qaeda and Taliban Sanctions Committee" designated three Kuwaiti nationals for providing support to al-Qaeda. Although the UN measure is a welcome step forward, it is unlikely to have much impact without aggressive implementation by Kuwait. Given the Kuwaiti government's mixed record in cracking down on terrorism financing, there is reason to be skeptical that it will take strong action. At the same time, the UN blacklisting already appears to have affected Kuwaiti counterterrorism efforts in a way that previous requests from the United States alone could not accomplish.
Topic:: Islam, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East and Kuwait

279. PolicyWatch #1332: Bush's Freedom Agenda: Alive but Not Kicking

Author:: J. Scott Carpenter
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Prior to President Bush's trip to the Middle East last week, many pundits expected him to focus little, if at all, on his longstanding "freedom agenda." Instead, he adopted a nuanced approach that managed to restate the key elements of his policy and to press, however gently, for further political and economic reform. Speaking before the trip, a senior State Department official summed up the approach: the president would not "beat up on anyone" but would press privately for stronger reform efforts at each stop and give praise where it was due. Indeed, the president's reiteration of the freedom agenda signaled that the United States remains engaged on certain policy issues that many governments hoped would disappear altogether. At the same time, however, these issues were clearly the trip's third priority (after Arab-Israeli peace and regional security), confirming that the freedom agenda has become a tertiary concern for the Bush administration.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

280. PolicyWatch #1330: Domestic Issues Trump Foreign Policy in Iran

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At each stop on his recent Middle East tour, President Bush centered his foreign policy agenda on the growing threat from Iran. But inside the Islamic Republic, domestic policies -- and not the international issues that Bush highlighted -- are at the center of political debate.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Intelligence, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

281. PolicyWatch #1329: Bush in Arabia: Work in Progress or Waste of Time?

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Most of President Bush's eight-day trip to the Middle East was spent in the Persian Gulf, visiting Kuwait, Bahrain, the two leading sheikhdoms of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Abu Dhabi and Dubai, and Saudi Arabia. As long-term allies of the United States, these Gulf Arab states still look to Washington as their ultimate security guarantor in what remains a dangerous region. In return for security, the United States asks for a reasonable world price for oil, support for its efforts to secure peace between Israelis and Palestinians, and cooperation in countering the threat of a potentially nuclear-armed Iran. The success of the trip may be judged by future progress on these policies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

282. PolicyWatch #1328: Bush's Middle East Trip: The President Embraces Rice's Approach

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President Bush's recent visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories came six weeks after the Middle East peace conference in Annapolis. That parley marked the first time the United States did not mandate a purely sequential approach to the peace process. Instead, Washington now wants issues to be solved in parallel, with the implementation of past obligations occurring simultaneously with final agreement on the core issues of Jerusalem, refugees, and security. Bush's reiteration of this policy approach during his trip suggests that he has adopted Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's peacemaking approach as his own.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

283. PolicyWatch #1324: Raising the Costs for Tehran

Author:: Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 01-2008
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the wake of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran, questions are being raised as to whether sanctions and financial pressure remain a viable approach to changing Tehran's decisionmaking on its nuclear program. As evidence of this strategy's demise, critics point to the foundering attempts to negotiate a third round of UN sanctions against Iran -- sanctions that appeared imminent before the NIE's publication. While additional punitive measures by the UN are important and necessary, better enforcement of the various sanctions regimes already in place could have an equally significant impact.
Topic:: Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, and Middle East

284. Shimon Peres Addresses The Washington Institute's Soref Symposium

Author:: David Makovsky and Shimon Peres
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Can Israel live with an Iranian nuclear bomb? If the Iranians continue to do three things simultaneously -- namely, develop nuclear weapons, be a center of terror, and be fanatical in their ambition to run the entire Middle East -- eventually the three will mix and nuclear bombs may fall into the irresponsible hands of terrorists. Then it will be a problem for the rest of the world. The world cannot live with terrorists obtaining nuclear capacity, and sooner or later the world will take action. However, I do not believe that Israel has to be a volunteer or pioneer in that endeavor.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

285. The Future of Palestinian Politics

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi, Wafa' Abdel Rahman, and Owen Kirby
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Democratic development in the Palestinian Authority (PA) is at the top of the Bush administration's priorities. While the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections of January 2006 were democratic, democratic elections by themselves do not constitute a democratic system. The current situation in the West Bank and Gaza cannot be called democratic by international norms. Respect for the rule of law and human rights and observation of individual rights and freedoms do not currently prevail in the PA.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

286. A Resurgent al-Qaeda and U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy

Author:: Michael Jacobsen
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Media headlines following the April 30 release of the State Department's annual report on global terrorism developments, Country Reports on Terrorism 2006, focused on the theme of increased terrorism. But the335-page document, along with its accompanying statistical assessment produced by the National Counter terrorism Center (NCTC), also contained important insights into the U.S. administration's evolving strategy to counter the terrorist threat.
Topic:: International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

287. The Role of Finance in Combating National Security Threats

Author:: Robert Kimmitt
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: What are the relative constraints of a multilateral approach versus a bilateral approach to the use of financial tools against illicit activity? Anytime we see a threat to the country through the financial system, we are going to take action immediately using the domestic authorities we have. We try to be careful, however, to make sure that those are carefully targeted to conduct and are not extra territorial. That provides a good basis for entering into discussion with friends and allies throughout the world, both on a bilateral basis with others and then on a multilateral basis.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: Middle East

288. Turkey's 'Smart' Islamist Challenge

Author:: Soner Cagaptay and Yuksel Sezgin
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 20, thousands of secular Turks demonstrated in the Black Sea port city of Samsun against the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has an Islamist pedigree. It was the most recent display of protest in a power struggle between the AKP and its opponents over determining a replacement for outgoing president Ahmet Necdet Sezer. In addition to the protestors and Sezer, the courts and the Turkish military have weighed in against the AKP. Far from backing down, as Turkey's Islamists would have done in the past, the AKP has stepped up the pressure by introducing a constitutional amendment package that calls for direct presidential elections to replace the current system of voting in parliament. President Sezer could decide the fate of this package, but the political crisis will continue.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East

289. 'Bad Veils' and Arrested Scholars: Iran's Fear of a Velvet Revolution

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Despite the public bluster of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the regime's behavior shows that it suffers from deep self-doubt. The arrests of visiting Iranian-born U.S. scholars Haleh Esfandiari (director of the Middle East program at the Woodrow Wilson Center) and Kian Tajbakhsh (a consultant for philanthropist George Soros's Open Society Institute programs) reflect Tehran's fear that political change could be easily sparked. A May 22 ABC News report that President Bush has authorized a covert CIA program against the regime will only add to Iran's suspicions.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

290. Building on a Vacuum: Ways Forward after the U.S.-Iranian Meeting

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The May 28 meeting between the U.S. and Iranian ambassadors to Iraq was mostly notable for its length -- four hours -- and the lack of anything to show for all that time together. And the very next day, Iran announced that three detained Iranian Americans visiting their homeland, including renowned scholar and women's rights advocate Haleh Esfandiari, were being formally charged with espionage -- charges that would be merely laughable if they were not so tragic.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

291. Global Anti-Terrorism Financing Group Challenged by Syria's Application

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, the Egmont Group -- an international body of more than 100 national financial intelligence units (FIUs) -- is holding its annual plenary session and working group meetings in Bermuda. One of the issues on the agenda is whether to admit a Syrian FIU into the group. Although Syria may in fact technically qualify for membership despite some significant shortcomings, extending membership to a state the United States regards as a sponsor of terrorism would raise serious questions about Egmont's standards and continued efficacy in the fight against money laundering and terrorism financing.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East

292. Middle Eastern Agenda for President Bush in Europe

Author:: Emanuele Ottolenghi
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President Bush is in Europe this week, where his meetings -- several of which are directly linked to aspects of U.S. Middle East policy -- represent important opportunities to build diplomatic bridges. Today, he visits Prague to address a democracy promotion conference organized by former Czech president Vaclav Havel, former Israeli deputy prime minister Natan Sharansky, and former Spanish prime minister Jose Maria Aznar. The president's next stop is Heiligendamm, Germany, for the G8 meeting between the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Russia. On June 8, he continues on to Poland, Italy, Albania, and Bulgaria in order to boost new democracies, cement alliances in the former Communist Bloc, and meet with the Pope.
Topic:: Government
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Middle East

293. Middle Eastern Investment in the United States: Avoiding Another Dubai Ports World Controversy

Author:: Michael Jacobson and David Jacobson
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 10, 2007, President Bush and U.S. Treasury secretary Henry Paulson launched an "open investment" initiative to encourage foreign investment in the U.S. economy. In a statement, the president emphasized that his administration "is committed to ensuring that the United States continues to be the most attractive place in the world to invest." Washington's focus on this issue is at least partly a reflection of the ongoing fallout from last year's Dubai Ports World (DPW) controversy. Although it is still premature to gauge the long-term economic impact of the DPW case, the process for reviewing foreign investments has already changed significantly.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention and Economics
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

294. PolicyWatch #1241: Special Forum Report: The Future of Syria: Challenges and Prospects

Author:: Barry Rubin and Theodore Kattouf
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 30, 2007, Barry Rubin and Theodore Kattouf addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Professor Rubin, a visiting fellow at the Institute, is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA), and author of the just-released book The Truth about Syria (Palgrave). Mr. Kattouf, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and the United Arab Emirates, is president and CEO of AMIDEAST, a nonprofit group dedicated to enhancing educational links between the United States and the Middle East. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria

295. Olmert After Winograd: A Battle for Survival

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The just-released Winograd Report, an investigation of Israeli decisionmaking in the 2006 summer war with Hizballah, has put Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in a battle for survival. Today, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni publicly called for Olmert's dismissal. Will the prime minister's tenure last beyond this growing crisis?
Topic:: Defense Policy and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

296. Turkey's Economic Future and the AKP

Author:: Meral Varis Kiefer
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 30, 2007, the Turkish stock market slumped and the value of the lira dropped following a massive demonstration in Istanbul against the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, coupled with a statement by the military voicing support for secularism. Previously, the comparatively healthy Turkish economy had boosted the chances that the AKP, rooted in the country's Islamist movement, would achieve further electoral victories this year. On April 24, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan named Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as his party's candidate for president -- a legislatively elected post. In the April 27 parliamentary session, however, the secular opposition boycotted the vote, and the AKP failed to muster the required two-thirds majority. The Turkish constitutional court subsequently annulled the vote, and the status of the presidential election is now uncertain. In the meantime, the parliament has moved legislative elections up from November to July 22.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

297. The Surge in Iraq: An Early Assessment

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt, Andrew Exum, and Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 26, 2007, Jeffrey White, Andrew Exum, and Michael Eisenstadt addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. White is the Institute's Berrie defense fellow and coauthor, with Mr. Eisenstadt, of the Institute Policy Focus Assessing Iraq's Sunni Arab Insurgency . Mr. Exum, a Soref fellow at the Institute, served in the U.S. Army from 2000 to 2004, with tours in Afghanistan and Iraq. Mr. Eisenstadt is director of the Institute's Military and Security Studies Program. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

298. Cheney in the Middle East: Defining Key Issues and Mutual Interests

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Vice President Dick Cheney departed today on a trip to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. A bland statement issued from his office on May 3 said he was asked to travel by President Bush and would be having "discussions with the leaders of these countries on key issues of mutual interest." No details were offered of the subjects of these discussions, but vice presidents do not travel halfway around the world unless there is important business to conduct.
Topic:: International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

299. Arab States' Efforts to Combat Terrorism Financing

Author:: Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 1-5, the seventeen Arab members of the Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force (MENAFATF) met in Jordan to discuss terrorism financing and money laundering in the region. Although the task force's record to date shows some promise, the organization can do far more to address these critical issues.
Topic:: Economics and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

300. The British Naval Detainees and Iranian Public Opinion

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At an April 3 news conference in Tehran, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad unexpectedly announced the decision to release fifteen captured British marines and sailors. In a theatrical gesture that included assailing Western policy in the Middle East and accusing the British crew of entering Iranian waters, he pardoned the detainees to mark both the Prophet Muhammad's birthday on March 30 and what he reportedly called "Christian Passover." (In Farsi, "Pesah" means Passover and "Fash" means Easter. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency report of his remarks, the president used Pesah instead of Fash.)
Topic:: International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

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