Content Type: Policy Brief / Publishing Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy / Political Geography: Middle East

901. Special Policy Forum Report: A Fence for the Foreseeable Future: Security and Political Implications

Author:: Matan Vilnai
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 17, 2002, Minister Matan Vilnai addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Vilnai is Israel's minister of science, culture, and sport; a member of Israel's inner security cabinet; a Labor member of Knesset; chairman of the ministerial committee for Israeli Arab affairs; and a reserve major-general (he served as head of Israel's Southern Command from 1989 to 1994 when Israeli forces redeployed out of Gaza). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. A few weeks ago, the Israeli government decided to establish a security fence between Israel and the West Bank in order to stem the tide of Palestinian suicide attacks. This fence has the support of the majority of Israelis for whom daily life has become a harrowing experience and for whom a fence brings some hope of security. This fence should not be seen as a substitute for diplomacy, but rather as a temporary security measure. The fence will not become the permanent border between Israel and the Palestinians. A permanent border can only attain legitimacy if it receives the support of both parties through negotiations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

902. Assessing Yasir Arafat's One-Hundred Day Plan for Reform

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As President George W. Bush was offering his vision for a post-Yasir Arafat Palestinian state two weeks ago, the Palestinian leader's cabinet was itself unveiling a "100-day plan" for reforming the Palestinian Authority (PA). This plan was clearly designed to both respond to popular demands to fix the PA's broken or stillborn institutions as well as steer the reform process down a nonthreatening, Arafat-controlled course. While it offers promising elements of change, the plan is only likely to strengthen the unacceptable status quo.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

903. Special Policy Forum Report: The Sx Day War and its Enduring Legacy

Author:: Michael Oren
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 29, 2002, Dr. Michael Oren, senior fellow at the Jerusalem-based Shalem Center and head of its Middle East history project, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. He is the author of the new book, Six Days of War: June 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

904. Analyzing President Bush's New Framework for Mideast Peace

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President George W. Bush today tore up a generation of conventional wisdom by offering a bold, new approach that conditioned U.S. support for eventual Palestinian statehood on a new political leadership; a "working democracy"; and far-reaching security, judicial, constitutional, and economic reform. At the same time, he seemed to ask nothing of Israel to which even the current Israeli government has not, in theory at least, already agreed. Having articulated this strategy, the White House will now surely face sustained pressure from Arab and European partners — and perhaps even from some within the administration — to balance the equation by early certification of Palestinian reform and/or accelerated demands on Israel for a redeployment of troops and a freeze on settlements.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

905. Special Policy Forum Report: Operation Defensive Shield: Lessons and Aftermath

Author:: Shaul Mofaz
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The IDF began planning for the contingency of carrying out extensive military operations throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip long before the deployment of Operation Defensive Shield in late March 2002. As early as 1998, during a period when hopes abounded for peace with both the Syrians and the Palestinians, the IDF's general staff faced the challenge of preparing for the failure of negotiations and the possibility of violence. Israeli intelligence reports anticipated the hostilities that eventually materialized in September 2000, following the unsuccessful talks at Camp David. A number of short-term and structural reforms within the IDF began in early 2000, aimed at improving readiness and maximizing efficiency. The optimistic tone of the times, however, had led to budget cuts for the military; eventually, the government was forced to allocate an additional $150 million in order to prepare soldiers for the anticipated violence.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Syria

906. Crosstown Contrasts: The White House, The State Department, and Middle East Policy

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The fracas over Secretary of State Colin Powell's interview with the London Arabic daily al-Hayat yesterday — the contents of which White House spokesman Ari Fleisher has pointedly refused to endorse — reflects a growing pattern of White House-State Department division on key Middle East issues, a damaging dynamic that will only be exorcised through clarity and resolution from the Oval Office.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, London, and Arab Countries

907. Where Reform and Peace Collide: Assessing the Palestinian Basic Law and Draft Consitution

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With this week's dispatch to the Middle East of Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet and Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs William Burns, the Bush administration has put its toe into the water of Palestinian reform. Success in this vital effort will require avoiding the trap of sham reform (such as a disproportionate focus on elections that might only confirm the worst excesses of Palestinian misrule) or effectively endorsing any particular Palestinian leader or would-be leader (thereby repeating the mistakes of the last decade). Instead, Washington should focus on the larger objectives at hand. At the core, there are two: 1) fostering the development of Palestinian national institutions based on democracy, transparency, accountability, fiscal propriety, and the rule of law; and 2) advancing the prospect for lasting peace and security between Israel and the Palestinian Authority ([PA] and its eventual successor, the State of Palestine). These two objectives may be complementary, though not necessarily so; in fact, in certain circumstances, they may be contradictory. Indeed, in approaching the Palestinian reform process, U.S. officials should not only highlight the importance of structural change but also keep in mind the pitfalls of promoting (or acquiescing in) certain kinds of "reform" that may inhibit, handicap, or prevent real peacemaking from taking hold. A review of two key documents — #151; the Basic Law governing the PA until the conclusion of the current "transitional period" and the PLO-endorsed draft constitution for the future State of Palestine — #151; reveals several areas where U.S. officials need to take particular notice as they discuss various reform ideas with Palestinian leaders.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

908. Plocca 2002: Empty Focus

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The State Department recently submitted its semiannual Palestine Liberation Organization Commitments Compliance Act (PLOCCA) report to Congress, assessing PLO and Palestinian Authority (PA) compliance with commitments made under the Israeli-Palestinian peace accords during the period June 15, 2001-December 15, 2001. The report acknowledges some PA shortcomings over the reporting period, but glosses over many gross violations of PA-PLO peace commitments throughout this period. In drawing its conclusions, the report did not take into account evidence of PA support for and involvement in terrorism laid out in approximately 500,000 documents Israel seized from PA offices in the course of Operation Defensive Shield. But there is good reason to expect that the U.S. government will find much of value in the seized Israeli documents. Ambassador Francis X. Taylor, the State Department's coordinator for counterterrorism, recently commented, "We don't have any question about the authenticity of the documents provided by the Israeli Government." Therefore, it is instructive to see where the documents shed light on issues discussed in the PLOCCA report. Once the material seized by Israel has been reviewed by the U.S. intelligence community — #151; a process that, presumably, will be completed shortly — #151; it would be appropriate to issue an updated version of the PLOCCA report, incorporating the additional information about PLO-PA activities during the June 15-December 15 period.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

909. From Armed Struggle to Reform: A Textual Analysis of Arafat's Ramallah Address

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Speaking to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in Ramallah yesterday, Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat offered a new political agenda to guide the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the aftermath of Israel's Operation Defensive Shield and U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to win his release from Israeli encirclement. The main headings of that agenda are armed struggle, guided reform, and preparation for elections. No mention was made of the prospects for renewed negotiations or the proposed regional peace conference.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

910. Reforming the Palestinian Security Services

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Last week, during the visit of Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon, President George W. Bush announced the need to "immediately begin to help rebuild a security force in Palestine that will fight terror, that will bring some stability to the region." He also stated that Central Intelligence Agency director George Tenet will be returning to the region "to help design the construction of a security force, a unified security force, that will be transparent, held accountable." Immediately after Bush's announcement, Sharon declared that he viewed security reform — #151; that is, purging the Palestinian Security Services (PSS) of corruption and terrorism — #151; as a precondition for a meaningful peace process, while, for his part, Bush did not create linkage between the two. Whatever differences exist in terms of linkage between reform and diplomacy, the administration's initiative is positive and necessary. The task at hand, however, is monumental, and solutions will take time, effort, and diplomatic skill. Quick fixes imposed from outside are unlikely to succeed unless they are accompanied by a fundamental change in the Palestinian leadership's approach to terrorism, counterterrorism, and peacemaking, and also by effective treatment of the deeply rooted social and institutional ailments within the Palestinian Authority (PA).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

911. The Intra-Likud Power Struggle and Israeli National Elections

Author:: Natan Sachs
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Likud Central Committee meets on Sunday to discuss a resolution opposing Palestinian statehood. Such a resolution could be seen as an important declarative step, despite its lack of legal significance (Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has publicly endorsed the idea of Palestinian statehood — albeit in vague terms). Although a vote on the topic may not occur, the fact that such a resolution is even being tabled casts a spotlight both on the party that is consistently leading Israeli polls and on the efforts of former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to unseat his rival, Sharon. The next national elections are currently scheduled for November 2003, but, as is often the case in Israeli politics, they could very well be held sooner. Interestingly, the current frontrunner is neither Sharon nor a member of Labor, the main opposing party, but rather a member of the prime minister's own party, the Likud. Two significant developments in the political landscape have contributed to this trend: first, in March 2001 the Knesset repealed the system of direct prime-ministerial elections and reinstated most of the elements of the old system, hoping to aid the larger parties (Likud and Labor) at the expense of smaller ones; second, since the outbreak of the current wave of Palestinian violence in September 2000, the voting preferences of the Israeli electorate have shifted dramatically to the right.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

912. An International Force in the West Bank and Gaza Strip: The Security Aspects

Author:: Natan Sachs and Nitsan Alon
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On Tuesday, former president Bill Clinton joined others in advocating a U.S.-led international force in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Several frameworks for such an intervention have been proposed, ranging from monitoring missions to full-fledged international trusteeship over the territories. Underlying these ideas is a lack of confidence in both sides, the Israelis and the Palestinians, along with a perception that the latter are unable or unwilling to stop terror. Although the appeal of external intervention may be strong, an analysis of the relevant security repercussions suggests that such intervention would not only be hazardous, but would also likely do more harm than good in the fight against terrorism.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

913. The Return of Palestinian Nationalist Terrorism

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Ehud Waldoks
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The State Department's annual Patterns of Global Terrorism report, which is scheduled for release in late May, is set to be a much longer and detailed document than before. Among the many issues the report will have to address is the resurrection of secular Palestinian terrorist groups, some of which have not been listed on U.S. government terrorist lists in the past. The steady escalation of terrorist tactics and operations over the past year and a half is due as much to these groups as it is to Palestinian Islamist groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad that have dominated the Palestinian terrorism scene over the last decade. Palestinian nationalist terrorism currently has two components: 1) dormant secular groups such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) — referred to collectively as "the fronts" — that have been revitalized after several years of inactivity; and 2) newly active nationalist, non-Islamist militias connected to the Palestinian Authority (PA), such as the Fatah Tanzim.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

914. Between Abdullah and Sharon: The Bush Administration Considers Middle East Options

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A spate of visitors have been coming to the United States to talk with senior Bush administration officials about the Middle East. Perhaps the most prominent visitor has been Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto Saudi ruler who last visited the United States three years ago. As a special gesture, President George W. Bush hosted Crown Prince Abdullah at his Crawford, Texas, ranch last week. Other recent visitors to see President Bush include Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak, Morocco's King Mohammed, and Lebanon's prime minister Rafik Hariri. Next week, President Bush will host Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and, shortly thereafter, Jordan's King Abdullah. Today, the State Department will host senior diplomats who deal with the Middle East, hailing from the European Union, Russia, and the UN. These countries and organizations have been consulting with each other and with the United States more than in previous times. As President Bush meets with these leaders and considers his options, there is already a noticeable change in the Bush administration's Middle East public focus away from a virtually exclusive September 11 counterterrorism agenda. From President Bush's speech to Congress last September and the State of the Union speech in January, the animating principle of this administration has been the war on terrorism. The violence in the Israeli-Palestinian arena, though, coupled with the Saudi peace initiative spearheaded by Crown Prince Abdullah at the Arab summit in Beirut six weeks ago, has succeeded in shifting President Bush's agenda.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, Saudi Arabia, and Lebanon

915. Defensive Shield Counterterrorism Accomplishments

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Seth Wikas
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Operation Defensive Shield — the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF's) counterterrorism operation in the West Bank — aims to confiscate illegal weaponry and bombing materiel; destroy factories producing bombs and missiles; constrict the environment in which terrorists plan, prepare, and execute terror attacks; and, most important, apprehend the operatives behind the current terrorist offensive. The operation has come under increasing international fire for delivering only short-term benefits at what seems to be a disproportionately high human cost on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. An analysis of the operation's success to date, however, clarifies not only the absolute necessity for such an operation, but also the scope of the operation's success in proactively disrupting terrorists' ability to target Israeli civilians. Moreover, a close look at the operation yields a plethora of disturbing evidence exposing the depth of the Palestinian Authority's (PA's) involvement in terrorism, including its links to terrorist groups such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

916. Israel's Response to Lebanese Border Skirmishes

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since March 28, 2002, the first day of Operation Defensive Shield — Israel's attempt to dismantle the Palestinian terrorist infrastructure — Lebanese Hizballah fighters have attacked northern Israeli settlements and military outposts on an almost daily basis. These unprovoked attacks have included the use of antitank missiles, mortars, katyusha rockets, and antiaircraft weapons directed at Israeli military and civilian aircraft. Among the towns attacked have been Shlomi, Kiryat Shmona, Moshav Beit Hillel, and the Allawite village Ghajar, where Hizballah fire wounded five residents, including three children. In an April 7 Hizballah attack on a military outpost in the western sector (a significant distance from the Shebaa Farms area), seven Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers — five of them women — were wounded. Despite these provocations, Israel has indicated that it does not wish to open a second front against Hizballah, the Lebanese army, or Syria. Yet, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon recently stated, "We are demonstrating restraint and are not interested in an escalation in the violence, but we cannot hold back for much longer," indicating that Israel's patience is about to run out and that harsh military response is imminent.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Syria

917. Special Soref Symposium Report

Author:: Emphraim Sneh
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: One of the best ways to reconcile Israel and the Arab world and, simultaneously, meet the interests of the United States is to maintain a demarcation in the Middle East between rogue states — e.g., those in the "axis of evil" — and moderate states. These moderates states, which are also allies of the United States, include Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, and some Persian Gulf and North African countries. All of these countries must work together to ensure stability in the Middle East and contribute to the containment of rogue states. A coalition of moderate states is feasible — such cooperation became prominent after the Oslo Accords, and it reached a high point at the 1996 Sharmel-Sheikh summit of peacemakers, where Israel, Turkey, and the moderate Arab states joined to condemn terrorism. Although this alliance is currently fractured, the circumstances required for its resumption can occur again. However, it is unlikely that such a coalition can be re-formed as long as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains unresolved. Whenever the Palestinian issue is a bleeding wound, the Middle East divides in the old way, with Israel on one side and the Arab and Muslim states on the other. The Palestinian issue is the only issue on which all the Arab states, moderate and rogue, tend to unite. When the peace process was on a positive track, however, the moderate states succeeded in isolating rogue states like Iraq.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

918. Operation Defensive Shield: The Israeli Actions in the West Bank

Author:: Nitsan Alon
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: What has Israel accomplished in its ongoing and large-scale operations in the West Bank? How well have the operations gone from the perspective of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)? The balance sheet is more positive than some accounts have suggested.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

919. Arafat's FInal Chance? President Bush's Speech: Textual Analysis

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In his Rose Garden speech yesterday, President George W. Bush jumped head-first into the waters of Middle East diplomacy by committing the prestige of his administration to the achievement of an Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire and, ultimately, to "ending the conflict and beginning an era of peace." Analytically, the most important innovation in the president's speech was his clear differentiation between the Palestinian people and the flawed, failed leadership of Yasir Arafat; absent was any hint of the recent days' mantra that Arafat remains indispensable to peacemaking. At the same time, however, the administration stopped short of breaking new ground operationally, relying instead on the prestige of the presidency, the persuasive powers of the secretary of state, and the implied threat to turn to other, as-yet-unnamed "responsible Palestinian leaders" to take the reins of power in the event this last-chance diplomacy fails to stem the terrorism and violence of recent days. Along the way, the president's decision to mesh political objectives with the goal of a ceasefire risked both an erosion of U.S. credibility in Mideast diplomacy and even more terrorism by giving Palestinians reason to believe that violence does succeed in chipping away at U.S. conditions for high-level political engagement.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

920. Special Policy Forum Report: From Beirut to Jerusalem: The Arab Summit, Zinni, and Cheney

Author:: David Makovsky, Robert Satloff, and Shibley Telhami
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Saudi initiative for Israeli-Palestinian peace — soon to be presented at the upcoming Arab Summit in Beirut — is in part a tool to address tensions in Saudi relations with the United States after the September 11 attacks. A more important motivation for the initiative, however, is that the Saudi ruling family is concerned about the Saudi public's reaction to the escalation of violence in Israel and the Occupied Territories. In a recent poll, 63 percent of the Saudi public named the Palestinian situation as the single most important issue for them, and an additional 20 percent placed it among the top three most important issues. These statistics should not be taken too literally, but they are an indication of the growing influence that the Palestinian issue has on Saudi and other Arab perceptions of how the Arab world is treated by the West.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

921. Designating the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Responding to the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades' latest suicide bombing — which threatened to undermine the third straight peace mission of Middle East envoy Gen. Anthony Zinni — the State Department broke with tradition and announced the group's pending designation as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), even before Congress completed the process leading to its official listing in the Federal Register. More telling than this break in procedure, however, is al-Aqsa's intimate relationship with Yasir Arafat's own Fatah organization, the dominant faction within the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), the Palestinian Authority (PA), and the various Palestinian security forces. Long hesitant to probe too closely into terrorism conducted by Fatah elements for fear of delegitimizing the PA as a peace partner, the State Department's addition of al-Aqsa to the FTO list underlines both the sharp rise in al-Aqsa terrorist tactics and Washington's post-September 11 zero tolerance for terrorism.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

922. Special Policy Forum Report: Demographics in the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute

Author:: Arnon Soffer
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Beyond the current violence and terrorism lies a demographic reality in the Arab-Israeli dispute which might in the future transform the politics, economics, and geography of the region. The demographics may affect U.S. foreign policy vis-à-vis the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

923. Entering the Refugee Camps: The Israeli Counterterrorist Offensive in the Gaza Strip

Author:: Nitsan Alon
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Over the past month, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a large-scale operation in several cities and refugee camps in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, beginning on the night of February 27 and ending nearly three weeks later with the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Bethlehem and Bet-Jalla on March 18. This operation was unique in several ways: the scale of activity was the largest of the current conflict; it included simultaneous action in several areas in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, using ground, air, and naval forces; and it included massive penetration into areas under full Palestinian control (Area A) and, most notably, into refugee camps, long considered almost out-of-bounds for security forces (even those of the Palestinian Authority [PA]). A careful look at the operation and its outcome, however, shows that the rationale behind it does not represent a shift in Israeli military strategy, but merely a more robust implementation of it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

924. Hizballah's Vision of the Lebanon-Israel Border

Author:: Avi J. Jorisch
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 28, Hizballah fired 57mm-antiaircraft missiles at Israeli planes flying over the Shebaa Farms area. According to Hizballah information officer Hassan Azzedin, "the current line of Israeli withdrawal ('blue line') is not consistent with the international boundary and not recognized by the Lebanese government. That's why we're pursuing the path of resistance." Indeed, Hizballah claims that Israel continues to occupy sovereign Lebanese territory, and the organization makes this claim the basis for what it considers legitimate resistance. What, then, is Hizballah's vision of where the Lebanon-Israel border should lie?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Lebanon

925. Hamas: Toward a Lebanese-Style War of Attrition?

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Lebanon may well have come to the West Bank and Gaza. Over the past year and a half, Hamas has adopted traditional Hizballah guerilla tactics such as roadside bombings, short-range rocket and mortar launchings, using squads of terrorists from a variety of groups, and videotaping attacks and potential suicide bombers. In the proud words of Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah, "[Palestinians] are now operating against the Israeli occupation with Hizballah methods." More ominous, there are increasing signs that Hamas may follow Hizballah's example and broaden its operational objectives to include targeting Americans for attacks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, Gaza, and Lebanon

926. Sharon and Buffer Zones

Author:: David Makovksy
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recriminations between Israelis and Palestinians on whether Israel sufficiently eased restrictions yesterday on the movement of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasir Arafat within Ramallah (in return for the arrest of three Palestinians involved in the killing of an Israeli cabinet minister) have overshadowed Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's declaration on Thursday to establish buffer zones in the West Bank.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

927. Deterioration Along the Israel-Lebanon Border

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the past month there have been no less than six incidents in which Hizballah's antiaircraft batteries opened fire against Israeli civilian and military aircraft flying in Israel's northern airspace. This in addition to its repeated and unprovoked attacks on Israeli outposts in the Mount Dov region, next to the Shaba Farms — the 750 acres Lebanon claims as its territory without UN support. In the latest attack on January 24, Hizballah fighters fired rockets, mortars, and forty antitank missiles at an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) outpost.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Lebanon

928. Special Policy Forum Report: Isreal Defense Policy: Responding to Challenges Near and Far

Author:: Binyamin Ben-Eliezer
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: "In the new world reality that emerged after September 11, it is easier for everyone to understand that there are no good terrorists and bad terrorists; it is not true that one man's terrorist — as some try to tell us — is another man's 'freedom fighter.' One man's terrorist is everyone's terrorist. . . . In this new world, it is very important that we show no tolerance for those who try to play a double game between us and the terrorists, for those who try to sit on the fence, one leg here, one leg there. In our region, some players still think, still feel, that they can continue the old game, playing both ends. The message must be clear: the old game is over. Make your choice, make it clear, and make it work. . . .
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

929. Special Policy Forum Report: Palestinian-Israeli Dynamics and the Future of Palestine

Author:: Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The parameters and structure of Palestinian society and polity have not yet been clearly defined or recognized. For Palestine, as for all societies that have been through liberation struggles, the extent of violence during the struggle will have a long-term impact on the future course of Palestinian politics, political values, identity issues, and institutional structures. The means through which the Palestinians obtain their independence will also have a major impact on the future of Palestinian-Israeli relations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, London, and Palestine

930. Arafat's Vision of Peace: A Textual Analysis

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 3, the New York Times published an op-ed by Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat titled "The Palestinian Vision of Peace." The timing of this op-ed is not coincidental. It appeared after several weeks of worsening U.S.-Palestinian ties, during which President George W. Bush registered his deep "disappointment" with the Palestinian leadership and U.S. officials contemplated cutting diplomatic ties with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Coming just days before visits to Washington by Israel's prime minister and defense minister, and just days after those Israeli leaders met with Palestinian interlocutors frequently cited as political successors to Arafat, this op-ed clearly sought to achieve several objectives: (1) to begin the process of repairing bilateral U.S.-Palestinian relations by spotlighting Arafat's peacemaking credentials; (2) to remind American audiences that Arafat — and not his subordinates and would-be successors — determines Palestinian strategy; and (3) to reorder the U.S.-Israel agenda this week to focus more on diplomacy and less on pressuring Arafat on terrorism and the investigation of the Karine-Aweapons-smuggling effort.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, New York, America, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

931. Special Policy Forum Report: The Karine-A Affair: A Strategic Watershed in the Middle East?

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Palestinian defense budget spending — relative to national income — is higher than that of any Arab country or Iran. This calculation is based on official data that exclude an important part of a state's defense budget — namely, procurement of weapons. The Oslo agreements prohibit the Palestinian Authority (PA) from procuring arms, yet they have been smuggled into the territories for years. It is not known how much the Palestinians actually invest in illegal weapons procurement, and there is no way to know how many wea
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Palestine

932. The Future of the Multinational Force and Observers in Sinai

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Growing U.S. military involvement in new locations such as Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and the Philippines has raised concerns in the Pentagon about overstretching the military and has prompted a call to reassess the future of America's long-standing contribution to peacekeeping missions worldwide. One of the missions at risk of being curtailed is the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) — an independent, international peacekeeping and verification organization established by Egypt and Israel to monitor the security arrangements of their 1979 peace treaty. The idea of downsizing the 900-man U.S. contingent in the Sinai Peninsula has been raised several times by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. "I do not believe that we still need our forces in the Sinai," he said in a recent public statement. But the timing of such a change — especially in light of the deterioration in Egyptian-Israeli relations since the beginning of the al-Aqsa intifada — is questionable. At a time when other voices are calling for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Saudi Arabia, a withdrawal from Sinai — even if only a reduction — could symbolize to many a decreasing U.S. interest in the region. It could also deny the recently violent Egyptian-Israeli-Palestinian border area an important and necessary cooling-off mechanism.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, America, Middle East, Israel, Uzbekistan, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula

933. The Seizure of Gaza-Bound Arms: Military Implications

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Alongside the diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire with Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been involved — since the beginning of the second intifada — in the indigenous production of weapons and ammunition and in repeated attempts to smuggle arms on a massive scale into the territories under its control. To thwart these efforts and to degrade the PA's fighting capabilities, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have destroyed dozens of warehouses and weapons-producing factories and have sealed all land, sea, and air passages leading into the PA.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

934. The Seizure of Gaza-Bound Arms: Political Implications

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israeli naval commandos seized the Gaza-bound freighter Karine-A in the Red Sea last Thursday, exposing a cargo hold containing fifty tons of munitions. The seizure took place in international waters some 300 miles off of Israel's southern coast, between Sudan and Saudi Arabia. The ship's captain, Omar Akkawi, later participated in an interview with Reuters and several television networks invited by Israeli authorities to the prison where Akkawi was being held; in the interview, he named Adel Awadallah of the Palestinian Authority (PA) as head of the operation. Akkawi also identified himself as both a long-time member of Yasir Arafat's Fatah and a naval advisor to the PA's Ministry of Transport; the PA subsequently confirmed the latter fact. In front of the reporters, Akkawi disclosed his instructions to first collect arms at a specified point off of Iran's coast and then sail through the Red Sea and Suez Canal to the Mediterranean. He also confirmed that one of the men who helped load the arms onto his ship was a member of the Iranian-backed Hizballah, and that one of his own crew members had been trained by the group.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Sudan, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

935. The Hamas Ceasefire: Historical Background, Future Foretold?

Author:: Seth Wikas
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The arrival of U.S. envoy General Anthony Zinni in Jerusalem today comes during a relative lull in the terrorism and violence that has characterized the Israeli-Palestinian scene since the eruption of the al-Aqsa intifada in September 2000. This lull is at least partly due to the December 21 decision of Hamas to suspend attacks against Israel. But a review of the eight years since the signing of the Oslo Accord shows that this is actually the ninth ceasefire that Hamas has offered or declared during that period.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Oslo

936. Inspections in Iraq: A Test For Saddam, Not A Good Solution for WMD

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Like that of its predecessor, the Bush administration's policy toward Iraq appears to focus on the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the hands of Saddam Husayn's regime. Some suggest that U.S. policy should emphasize the resumption of inspections, suspended since 1998. However, there are strong reasons to doubt that inspections would reduce the threat of Iraqi WMD.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

937. How to Unseat Saddam (Part 2 of 2)

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Psyops and propaganda activities that aim to diminish Saddam in the eyes of his supporters, exacerbate existing strains between his inner circle and the military, stir up popular discontent, and embolden opponents of the regime are a crucial component of any policy that seeks regime change in Baghdad. Such efforts could keep Saddam on the defensive and create an atmosphere of crisis and tension, forcing the regime to divert assets to deal with internal security, and leaving fewer resources available for clandestine technology procurement or trouble-making elsewhere. Such efforts could transform the psychological environment in the country, creating an atmosphere in which a coup or uprising might occur.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

938. How to Unseat Saddam (Part 1 of 2)

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Before September 11, U.S. policymakers would have been hard-pressed to justify significant military action against Iraq without a major provocation. The events of September 11 and the subsequent anthrax incidents, however, have highlighted the dangers of "business as usual" in an age of sophisticated terrorism and weapons proliferation, and the potentially high costs of ignoring the likes of Saddam Hussein; that is true whether or not Iraq was associated with these events. The risks of perpetuating a faltering containment policy, and the imperative of regime change in Iraq have never been clearer.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

939. Special Policy Forum Report -- Islam and the Use of Force: The Views of Contemporary Muslim Clerics on Terrorism, Violence, and Conflict

Author:: Akbar Ahmed and Emmanuel Sivan
Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On December 6, 2001, Akbar Ahmed and Emmanuel Sivan addressed the Washington Institute's Policy Forum. Professor Ahmed holds the Ibn Khaldun Chair of Islamic Studies at the American University's School of International Service and has most recently authored Islam Today: A Short Introduction to the Muslim World. Professor Sivan is professor of Islamic history at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and has written the book Radical Islam. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

940. Promoting Religious Freedom in the Arab World, Post-September 11

Author:: Amy Hawthorne
Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: To win the war against terrorism, the U.S. government must pursue with equal vigor both the short-term imperative to root out terrorist groups, including their international support networks, and the longer-term objective of advancing a positive vision for the Arab world, one that offers an alternative to the destructive ideology of the terrorists. Both efforts are essential; focusing on the former at the expense of the latter will almost surely prove self-defeating.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

941. Navigating the U.S. Government's Terrorist Lists

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since September 11, the Bush administration has issued seven different lists of terrorist groups, including terrorist organizations, front companies, and individuals. In its effort to prosecute the war on terrorism, the administration has articulated the goal of eradicating Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda terrorist network and its Taliban hosts rather clearly. However, the goals of the broader war on terrorism, beyond Al Qaeda and the Taliban, remain ill defined. An examination of the administration's various terrorist lists underlines the developing nature of its strategic vision for dealing with international terrorism beyond Al Qaeda. The lists are a telling component of the administration's emerging policy regarding its war on terrorism writ large.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

942. Focusing on Iraq: The Question is How, Not Whether

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In Washington, the debate over Iraq is shifting from the simple question of whether it should be targeted in phase II of the antiterror war, to how we should deal with a country that continually refuses to fulfill its UN obligations and surrender weapons of mass destruction (WMD). From the latter viewpoint, options for Iraqi policy are not confined to the extremes of either complete inactivity or dispatching 500,000 troops for a ground campaign. There are numerous approaches that the Bush administration can take if it is determined to increase pressure on Saddam Husayn's regime. President Bush spoke on Monday about the importance of resuming UN-mandated arms-control inspections in Iraq, and the Security Council has been considering this week whether to revitalize sanctions on Iraq.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

943. Special Policy Forum Report: Europe and the Campaign Against Terror

Author:: Josef Joffe
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On November 6, 2001, Josef Joffe addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum about the many faces of European politics and policy in the context of September 11. Dr. Joffe, a special visiting fellow of The Washington Institute, is publisher-editor of the German weekly Die Zeit, and a contributing editor of Time (International). A frequent commentator on U.S., British, and German radio and television, his essays and reviews have appeared in such publications as Foreign Affairs, the National Interest, New York Review of Books, Times Literary Supplement, Commentary, New York Times Magazine, New Republic, and the Weekly Standard. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

944. UNSC 1373 and the War Against Terror: An Important if Untested Tool

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On October 30, Iranian parliamentarian Elaheh Kula'i appeared before the Majlis and warned that a reluctance to implement UN resolutions regarding terrorism could result in "consequences" for the Islamic republic. Kula'i was specifically referring to UN Security Council Resolution (UNSC) 1373, which outlines the financial and legal measures that UN member-states must take against terrorists such as Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda. That an Iranian official would express such anxiety over a UN resolution highlights its potential as a tool for assembling "all necessary means," force if need be, to pressure terror-supporting states.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

945. U.S. Military Operations and the Question of Ramadan

Author:: Avi Jorisch
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Ramadan, the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, will begin on November 16. Some in the United States and abroad have suggested that a moratorium in military operations would be appropriate. Others see no reason to stop. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has stated that "history is replete with instances where Muslims have fought Muslims and Muslims have fought non-Muslims throughout all of the various holy days, including Ramadan." What, then, is the Muslim sentiment regarding fighting during Ramadan? Is there historical precedent or religious requirement for the cessation of hostilities?
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

946. Devising a Public Diplomacy Campaign Toward the Middle East: Part II -- Basic Principles

Author:: Avi Jorisch
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Ramadan, the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, will begin on November 16. Some in the United States and abroad have suggested that a moratorium in military operations would be appropriate. Others see no reason to stop. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has stated that "history is replete with instances where Muslims have fought Muslims and Muslims have fought non-Muslims throughout all of the various holy days, including Ramadan." What, then, is the Muslim sentiment regarding fighting during Ramadan? Is there historical precedent or religious requirement for the cessation of hostilities?
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

947. Devising a Public Diplomacy Campaign Toward the Middle East: Part I -- Basic Principles

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The appearance of senior U.S. officials on the Qatari-based al-Jazeera satellite news channel is the first sign that Washington is taking seriously the need for enhanced "public diplomacy" as a vital component in the war against terrorism. In this arena, however, urgency needs to be tempered with realism. Rushing to enhance public diplomacy efforts without a clear understanding of objectives, constraints, sequence, and the different means at the government's disposal risks not only a dispersal of effort and wasted resources but, in the worst case, actually ceding important ground in the "hearts-and-minds" campaign. In devising public diplomacy toward the Middle East, the key to success will be to marry the principles of "make haste, slowly" and "do no harm."
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

948. Riots in Iran: Implications for U.S. Policy

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Over the last week, Iran has seen the most extensive rioting since the 1979 revolution. On Sunday, October 21, official accounts showed that public buildings, including thirty-two nationalized bank branches, were attacked in fifty-four Tehran neighborhoods. Rioting also occurred in cities across the country, with at least 180 arrested in Isfahan alone. Riots continued Monday night, resulting in a thousand arrests over the two nights. Financial Times estimated that over 100,000 participated in the Tehran rioting on Thursday night.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

949. Special Policy Forum Report: The Status of Middle Eastern Studies in America

Author:: Michael Kramer
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Two decades ago, a generation of Middle East scholars in America revolted against their teachers — the founders of Middle Eastern studies in America. They did so in a bid to revitalize funding and job opportunities in the field. The banner they waived was that of Edward Said's 1978 Orientalism, in which he argued that Europeans and Americans were afflicted by bias when analyzing trends in the region. In effect, that left Middle Easterners as the only scholars who could claim to study the region objectively. Said's followers then proceeded to take over the field of Middle Eastern studies in America. But now, the revolutionaries have become the establishment, and it is time for the younger generation of Middle East scholars to effect a revolution against their own teachers..
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: America, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

950. Shaykh Dr. Yousef Al-Qaradawi: Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Shaykh Yousef al-Qaradawi, head of the Sunni studies department at Qatar University and a well-known Islamic scholar, was the first in the Arab Sunni world to Islamically legitimate the suicide operations of Hamas (1995). But he was also among the first Islamic scholars to condemn the September 11 attack on the United States. In mid-October, he joined four other scholars in sanctioning the participation of American Muslim military personnel in the attack on Afghanistan, as long as they were not involved in fighting and only in administrative and logistics activities. This report was viewed by American Muslims as a ruling, but the statement has not appeared on his official website (www.qaradawi.net) alongside his other rulings, articles, and interviews. Do his post-September 11 statements indicate a change in view?
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries

951. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq and Counterterrorism: The Role of the Kurdistan Regional Government

Author:: Barham Salih
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Ten years after the Gulf War, much of Iraqi Kurdistan is free from Baghdad's control and is busy trying to build a civil society in a very difficult region. Out of the ashes of tyranny, the Iraqi Kurds have built something tangible: a free, liberal society by Middle Eastern standards, if not by higher standards. Basic human rights are assured: for example, in Sulaymania there are some fifty-five newspapers, many of which are very critical of the government and the PUK. And much has been done to develop the local economy through governmental and tax reforms, and the UN Oil-for-Food program.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and North America

952. Bright Star: Almost Business As Usual

Author:: Richard Williams
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Bright Star 01/02, the largest multinational exercise in the world, began in Egypt the same day U.S. strikes against Afghanistan commenced. With world and regional attention focused on the war against terrorism, relatively little media notice has been taken of Bright Star. Despite its massive size, the exercise was "expected to be a low-key affair" by the Middle East Newsline. A review of the Egyptian press since October 4 reveals no mention of it, and the Department of Defense (DoD) released only a single, brief announcement on October 3. The U.S. Central Command's (CENTCOM) Bright Star web page is bare.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

953. September 11 and the Saudi Arabian Connection

Author:: Joshua Teitelbaum
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's visit to the Middle East and Central Asia last week — in an attempt to shore up the coalition against anti-American terrorism — brought him to Saudi Arabia as well. The Saudi government has neither openly acknowledged how they will allow the United States to use the space-age technology Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC) that opened in June at Prince Sultan Air Base, near al-Kharj, southeast of Riyadh; nor has it said what landing or refueling rights will be granted. Amid conflicting statements by anonymous officials, the Saudi paper al-'Ukaz quoted Minister of Defense Sultan bin 'Abd al-'Aziz: "We do not accept the presence in our country of a single soldier at war with Muslims or Arabs." History is not encouraging here — the Saudi royal family did not allow the United States to use its air bases during 1998's Operation Desert Fox against Iraq.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries

954. Yemen and the Fight Against Terror

Author:: Amy Hawthorne
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: October 12 marks the first anniversary of the terrorist attack on the American warship USS Cole, an attack that killed seventeen sailors while the ship was refueling in Aden harbor, Yemen. A year later, although United States and many Yemeni officials are certain that Osama bin Laden was behind the incident, the file remains open. Reflecting the continuing evolution of policy in the wake of September 11, the United States now describes Yemen as a "partner" in the fight against terror, whereas the State Department's 2000 "Patterns of Global Terrorism" report stated that the Yemeni government "did little to discourage the terrorist presence in Yemen."
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Government, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries

955. Special Policy Forum Report: Assessing the Role of the United Front

Author:: Mohammed Eshaq and Julie Sirrs
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The current situation in the region creates an opportunity for Afghanistan and the United Front. The United Front is the only force present in Afghanistan and ready to move against Osama bin Laden and the Taliban. If there is cooperation between the forces of the United States and the United Front, the job of eliminating Al Qaeda's infrastructure and removing the Taliban from power will be easier than if the two act separately. Yet, the leadership of the United Front is aware of the misconception in Washington that there are certain factions of the Taliban that could be dealt with and convinced to join forces against bin Laden. Any involvement by the United States should be done in a way to bring further unity, cohesion, and support to an already existing coalition of forces opposing the Taliban under the banner of the United Front.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

956. In the War Against Terrorism, Where Goes Sudan?

Author:: Michael Rubin
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With attention focused on the bombings against Afghanistan, the most radical change in U.S. policy toward any other Muslim state since September 11 has been the accelerated rapprochement between the United States and Sudan, a country that hosted Osama bin Laden between 1991 and 1996. The quickly warming relations between Washington and Khartoum raise the question of "what price coalition?"
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, and Arab Countries

957. U.S. - Israel Tension in the Aftermath of September 11

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the world has focused on the U.S. effort against Osama bin Laden in the aftermath of September 11, friction has been building between the United States and Israel. The growing feeling in Israel has been that U.S. coalition-building with the Arabs against terrorism has involved tradeoffs which come at Israel's expense and thus compromises Israeli security concerns. The tension peaked at the end of last week when Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon made intemperate remarks, implying a potential comparison between President George W. Bush and Neville Chamberlains Munich capitulation to the Nazis. The White House immediately termed such comments "unacceptable" — Sharon quickly apologized, calling it a misunderstanding.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

958. Gaining Arab Support Against Terrorism: The Role of the Organization of the Islamic Conference

Author:: Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the United States pursues its military operations, the Organization of the Islamic Conference's (OIC) foreign ministers are scheduled to meet in the Qatari capital of Doha on Wednesday. Among the important issues that are likely to be mooted are the antiterrorism coalition and the scope of its activities; the future of Afghanistan; and a working definition of terrorism. The OIC has before it an important opportunity to ally the Muslim world with the prevailing international consensus against using religion as a rationale for mass violence.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

959. The Language of Terrorism

Author:: Avi Jorisch
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After a three-week hiatus following the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, Tuesday saw renewed car bombings in Israel. Yet, it is not only Israel that faces a threat from radical Islamist suicide terrorists, but also many Arab states. Given this fact, it is all the more striking that many mainstream Muslim religious leaders are still unwilling to condemn suicide bombings in general, irrespective of the cause that the bombers espouse.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

960. Syria's Accession to the Unsecurity Council and U.S. Policy

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The internal Bush administration debate over the "broad coalition/narrow target versus narrow coalition/broad target" in the war against terrorism will be put to a test Monday, when the United Nations General Assembly is scheduled to vote in secret ballot on the nomination of Syria as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. Despite being a charter member of the U.S. government list of state sponsors of terrorism, Syria's candidacy has not yet elicited U.S. opposition.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and Tamil Nadu

961. Qatar: A Template for Future U.S. - Persian Gulf Relations?

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week's visit to New York and Washington by the ruler of the Persian Gulf state of Qatar is a public display of the type of relationship the United States would prefer to have with its allies in the region post-September 11: friendly, concerned, and openly cooperative. It will be contrasted by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's visit to Qatar's much larger neighbor and frequent rival, Saudi Arabia, where the ruling family is reluctant to make military facilities available for operations against Osama bin Laden and the Taliban.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

962. Special Policy Report: Inside Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:: Michael Rubin, Michael Eisenstadt, and David Isbey
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 21, Michael Rubin, a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute who traveled to Afghanistan and Pakistan in 1997 and 2000; David Isbey, specialist correspondent for Jane's Intelligence Review and director of the Committee for a Free Afghanistan; and Michael Eisenstadt, senior fellow at The Washington Institute specializing in military affairs, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Middle East, and Arab Countries

963. The War Against Terror: The Caution of the Conservative Arab States of the Persian Gulf

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At a meeting over the weekend in the Saudi port city of Jeddah, foreign ministers of the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf pledged "total cooperation" for international efforts to bring those responsible for the terror attacks in New York and Washington to justice. But the nuances in attitudes of the group — the oil states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman — suggest that the United States faces huge difficulties in achieving, publicly at least, anything more than partial cooperation.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Kuwait, and Arab Countries

964. The Global Jihad Brotherhood: Egyptian Islamic Jihad and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In his September 21st speech to Congress, President George W. Bush mentioned two terrorist groups in addition to Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaedah: the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Both groups are fighting the regimes of their homelands but serve the interests of global Jihad as well.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Uzbekistan, Arab Countries, and Egypt

965. Iran: Part of the Problem or Part of the Solution?

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: British foreign secretary Jack Straw arrives in Tehran today to "build alliances with every country that we can." In fact, Iran is the acid test of U.S. resolve to fulfill the goal set by President George Bush in his speech to Congress, namely, "From this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime." While Iran could be a useful ally vis-a-vis Afghanistan, there is no sign that Iran has any intention of stopping its support for terrorism. The objective of U.S. policy should be finding a way to take advantage of Iran's anti-Taliban sentiment while still pressing ahead with efforts to terminate Iran's own support for international terrorism.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

966. The War Against Terror: Saudi Arabia's Crucial Role

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The visit to Washington this week by Saudi foreign minister Prince Saud Al Faisal is an early test of Saudi Arabia's ability and willingness to work with U.S. authorities in meeting the threat of terrorism led by Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden. Although the United States is the kingdom's strongest ally and has historically helped make it the world's largest oil exporter, the recent past does not augur well.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

967. Special Policy Forum Report: Terror Against America: Assessment and Implications

Author:: Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 13, 2001, Dennis Ross, counselor and distinguished fellow at The Washington Institute, delivered a presentation at a special briefing on the September 11 terrorist attacks. The following is an adaptation of Ambassador Ross's remarks.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: America, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

968. Special Policy Forum Report: Terror Against America: Assessment and Implications

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 13, 2001, Robert Satloff, executive director of The Washington Institute, and Dennis Ross, counselor and distinguished fellow at the Institute, held a special briefing on the September 11 terrorist attacks. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Dr. Satloff's remarks; the report of Ambassador Ross's remarks will be distributed tomorrow.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: America, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

969. Quandries and Coalitions: The U.S. Response to September 11

Author:: Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Given the scope of last week's terrorist attacks and the shadowy nature of the perpetrators, the White House has pledged that U.S. retaliation will be qualitatively different from the past — targeting states as well as organizations, crafting a wide international coalition, employing an array of military, political, and cultural means, and persisting over a long period of time. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld acknowledged that the U.S. response would be "political, economic, diplomatic, and military," while the president unequivocally declared that the objective of the United States "is to rid the world of evil." Deciding how to achieve these goals, however, raises several quandaries.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

970. Osama bin Laden, the Taliban, and the Challenge of State Sponsors

Author:: Michael Rubin
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Three days after the horrific attacks against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, investigators are concentrating on al-Qaida, the terrorist network of Saudi financier Osama bin Laden. But as President Bush warned, focusing on the perpetrators must not detract from focusing on those that make his operation possible.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Taliban, and Arab Countries

971. The Ibrahim Case and U.S. Egypt Policy: Toward a More Robust Approach

Author:: Amy Hawthorne
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a glimmer of hope for Egyptian-American democracy advocate Saad ed-Din Ibrahim and five of his colleagues — sentenced to prison in May — Egypt's Court of Cassation last week set an October 17 hearing for a petition to suspend their sentences while the verdict is under appeal. This news, along with the arrival in Cairo of a new U.S. ambassador, should give the United States the opportunity to pursue the Ibrahim case more vigorously, despite the tension this may add to U.S.-Egyptian relations at a time of regional conflict.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Cairo

972. Special Policy Forum Report: Durban, the Human Rights Community, and the Middle East

Author:: Irwin Cotler
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 7, 2001, Irwin Cotler, member of the Canadian parliament and co-chair of the Joint House-Senate Parliamentary Human Rights Group, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Human Rights, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

973. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part II)

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran could have a number of direct and indirect effects on the region: First, a nuclear breakout by either will cause the United States to be much more careful in its dealings with that state, particularly when it comes to considering military action. America's military freedom-of-action will be greatly constrained. Second, an Iraqi breakout would almost certainly cause Iran to further accelerate its own nuclear efforts and might spur Tehran to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which it increasingly sees as a liability. Third, the emergence of a nuclear Iraq and/or Iran could cause the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to seek an independent deterrent capability — including chemical weapons. (The large petrochemical industries of the Gulf could provide many of the precursor chemicals needed for such an effort.) Saudi Arabia might even seek to buy nuclear weapons from Pakistan.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, Iraq, America, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

974. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part I)

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As U.S. policymakers review options for national missile defense and ways to reshape the military to meet future threats, nuclear proliferation — particularly in the Middle East — looms large as one of the most critical future challenges facing the United States. In the coming years, it is conceivable, if not likely, that the United States will have to respond to a nuclear breakout by Iraq and/or Iran. Such a development could have a dramatic impact on the strategic environment of the Middle East by altering the regional balance of power and encouraging further proliferation in the region and beyond. A nuclear breakout by either of these countries would also undermine international proliferation norms, put U.S. forces in the region at risk, pose a direct threat to U.S. friends and allies, and greatly constrain America's military freedom of action in the region. The likelihood of such a development — or at least its potential impact — will, however, be influenced by steps the United States takes now to deal with such an eventuality. And Washington is more likely to successfully manage the consequences of a nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran if its response is not improvised, but based on prior planning.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

975. Khatami's New Term and Ilsa's New Life

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: August 5 is an auspicious day for Iran, as it marks the inauguration of Mohammed Khatami's second four-year term as president of that country. It is also the day that the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) would have expired, had its renewal not received an overwhelming vote last week by 96-2 in the Senate and 409-6 in the House. Khatami's cabinet choices, which he is expected to announce at his inaugural, will indicate much about where Iran is heading. Similarly, how the Bush administration administers a renewed ILSA will indicate much about the direction of U.S.-Iran policy.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Libya, and Arab Countries

976. Durban and the Middle East: Challenges for U.S. Policy

Author:: Michael Colson
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At the end of August, the United Nations is set to convene a "World Conference Against Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance" (WCAR) in Durban, South Africa. But with less than one month to go, preparations for the conference are in shambles. Draft texts under consideration are replete with language equating Zionism with racism. Efforts to address anti-Semitism and the Holocaust have been perverted beyond recognition. Governments and nongovernmental organizations are demanding apologies and recognition of the right to reparations and compensation for slavery, the slave trade, colonialism, and other historical wrongs. These problems have prompted the Bush administration to warn that it may boycott the entire event.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, South Africa, and Arab Countries

977. Iraq Policy: Thinking Beyond Smart Sanctions

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: August 2, 2001 marks eleven years since Saddam Husayn invaded Kuwait. Given Washington's unsuccessful effort to win UN Security Council approval for a reformed sanctions regime, the Bush administration must now reconsider the options for Iraq policy.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Kuwait, and Arab Countries

978. Jordan's New Election Law: New Tactics, Old Strategy?

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, Jordan's King Abdullah took two major decisions that will have significant implications for the kingdom's complicated and often troubled relations with its Palestinian and Islamist communities. Last Sunday, Abdullah approved a new election law; two days later, he issued a decree indefinitely postponing parliamentary elections. Taken together, these moves appear designed to bolster the stability of the kingdom, though it is still too early to assess whether the regime wins or loses from these parliamentary gambits.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and Law
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Jordan

979. Special Policy Forum Report: Arab States vs. Islamists -- Past Record, Future Prospects

Author:: Ibrahim Karawan
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 10, 2001, Professor Ibrahim Karawan, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah and Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. The record of prediction about Islamism as a political force has been unimpressive. The failure is due to inadequacies in conceptualizing what is known, more than any shortage of raw data.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

980. Special Policy Forum Report: Khobar Towers Five Years Later -- Evaluating the Criminal Justice Approach to Counterterrorism

Author:: Ruth Wedgwood
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 25, the fifth anniversary of the Khobar Towers bombing, Dr. Ruth Wedgwood, professor of international law at the Yale Law School and Edward B. Burling Professor of International Law and Diplomacy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (2001-2002), addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

981. Special Policy Forum Report -- Northern Iraq, Sanctions, and U.S. Iraq Policy

Author:: Michael Rubin
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 27, 2001, Michael Rubin, a Washington Institute visiting scholar and Carnegie Council fellow, addressed the Washington Institute's Policy Forum. Dr. Rubin has just returned from nine months in northern Iraq, where he taught in the region's three universities. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Iraq remains at the forefront of U.S. and international attention. Many contentious issues — such as sanctions, weapons of mass destruction, and the future political disposition of the country — remain unresolved. In analyzing the source of Iraq's problems, it is useful to compare those portions of Iraq under the control of Saddam Hussein to the three northern governorates (Dahuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniyyah), which are controlled by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and the Islamic Unity Movement of Kurdistan — especially as all parts of Iraq fall under the same set of UN sanctions. The population in the north is approximately 3.5 million, many of whom are Kurdish, Turkoman, or Assyrian, and almost 1 million of whom are displaced persons expelled from Saddam's portion of Iraq. By refusing to grant visas to many journalists, Saddam's government consistently seeks to deny press coverage to northern Iraq. Those who do visit Baghdad-controlled Iraq are restricted to guided tours with Iraqi government minders and are prevented from traveling into the Kurdish-controlled north. Foreigners visiting the north, however, are able to move around freely without prearrangement.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

982. Confusing Signals Out of Saudi Arabia

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On Friday in Europe, Secretary of State Colin Powell is set to meet Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Washington's relationship with the world's largest oil exporter has become strained for reasons more complicated than Crown Prince Abdullah's recent reluctance to meet President Bush at the White House, allegedly because of perceived U.S. bias toward Israel and against the Palestinians. Saudi diplomacy suffers a credibility problem because contradictory statements by top Saudi officials often leave diplomats guessing as to what is the real Saudi position.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

983. Special Policy Forum Report -- Iran's Hardline Vigilantes and the Prospects for Reform

Author:: Michael Rubin
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 5, 2001, Michael Rubin, a Washington Institute visiting scholar who was in 2000/2001 a visiting professor at the three universities in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, addressed the Institute's Policy Forum luncheon. This event marked the publication of Dr. Rubin's new study, Into the Shadows: Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran (Policy Paper no. 56, The Washington Institute). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

984. June 7 Khatami's Re-Election and Iran's Pressing Problems

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Tomorrow, Mohammed Khatami is sure to be re-elected president of Iran. But that is not likely to make much difference to Iranians, as Khatami has no coherent program for any of Iran's three pressing problems: economic revitalization, political liberalization, and reduction of security threats. Even though Khatami has shown disinterest in improving relations with the United States, Washington should try once again, while not expecting much-if any-response.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

985. Special Policy Forum Report: The Iranian Presidential Poll: Does It Really Matter?

Author:: Geneive Abdo
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In May, Geneive Abdo, a research scholar at the Middle East Institute of the Columbia University School of International Affairs, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. To see her remarks in their entirety, The election of Muhammad Khatami as president of Iran four years ago has given rise to a perception that he is a maverick, a rare political leader in Iranian history who advocates values important to the Western world: political pluralism, freedom of expression, and human rights for all, including religious minorities. However, Khatami's unwillingness to confront the establishment became clear early in his presidency. After students staged five days of protest in July 1999 — the first true test of Khatami's courage — the president took a different turn. He decided at critical moments to side with the establishment, no matter how much he might alienate his own supporters.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arab Countries

986. 'Re-Energizing' UN Sanctions on Iraq: Problems and Prospects

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, the United States and United Kingdom are circulating a draft resolution in the UN Security Council proposing a package of new measures intended to "re-energize" sanctions against Iraq. They hope to bring the resolution to a vote before the next six-month phase of the "oil for food" program begins on June 4. This revamped sanctions regime will lift restrictions on civilian trade, while retaining both international control over Iraq's oil income through the UN escrow account, and a ban on the import of arms and dual-use items critical to the production of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Arab Countries

987. President Bush's National Energy Policy and the Middle East

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Bush administration this week launched initiatives on two fronts of U.S. concern about the Middle East: Secretary of State Colin Powell's proposals to end Arab–Israeli violence and Vice President Dick Cheney's national energy policy. While the energy policy report concentrates on domestic issues, it necessarily discusses the Middle East. Its prescriptions about the Middle East, however, are vague. At worst, Washington appears unwilling to criticize the price-influencing production policies of the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel, dominated by Middle Eastern countries.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

988. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey -- Today's Political and Economic Realities

Author:: Tansu Ciller
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 8, 2001, Tansu Ciller, former prime minister and the leader of Turkey's True Path Party, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. At the dawn of the new millennium, Turkey remains a significant actor in its region despite economic difficulties. Turkey, a strategic partner with the United States, is a source of steadiness that is vital for peace in its region. Turkey's long relations with Israel play a stabilizing role in the Middle East.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East

989. Special Policy Forum Report: Partners in Need: Russia and Iran's Strategic Relationship

Author:: Brenda Shaffer
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In April, Brenda Shaffer, research director of Harvard University's Caspian Studies Program and visiting fellow at The Washington Institute in 2000, addressed The Washington Institute to mark the publication of her Policy Paper, Partners in Need: The Strategic Relationship of Russia and Iran. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. Russia and Iran see themselves as strategic partners, and therefore their relations are based on an overall security conception. It would be a misperception to assume that because Washington and Moscow share concerns about Islamist radicalism that Russia would necessarily decide to cooperate with the United States on Iran. It would also be a misperception to think that Russia wants to sell arms to Iran solely in order to make money and that the United States can induce Russia not to make these sales by offering a better economic deal.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

990. Do Iran's Presidential Elections Matter?

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Today's decision by Iranian president Mohammad Khatami to run for re-election was more important than the actual election on June 8, which he is sure to win. But neither matters nearly as much as the crucial question for Iran's future — namely, will hardliners let the formal government rule or will they continue their crackdown through the revolutionary institutions they control? The answer will be key for U.S. policy options towards Iran.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

991. Hariri in Washington

Author:: Yossi Baidatz
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Tomorrow, Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri begins his visit to Washington, his first since the September 2000 elections that saw his return to the office he held from October 1992 to December 1998. His ears are ringing with voices of two interwoven debates at home — namely, debates about the deterioration of the security situation along the Lebanese–Israeli border and about the continued Syrian presence in Lebanon. Hariri, a seasoned businessman who is well aware of the delicacy of the situation and of his limitations as the head of a government with restricted powers, does not see this visit as a mere courtesy call, but as a milestone. To assure his own political survival, he needs to extricate Lebanon from its severe economic crisis and avoid entanglement in war. For the new American administration that is still formulating its Middle Eastern policy, this visit could be an opportunity to prevent a conflagration in Lebanon and to begin a new long-term policy towards Lebanon and Syria.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria

992. Special Policy Forum Report -- Managing U.S.-Turkish Relations

Author:: Mark Parris
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey is important . . . The new administration, based on what it has said and done since January, understands this." "One reason [for Turkey's importance], of course, is its location and the issues that come with that geography-big issues; issues that have literally made or broken past administrations' foreign policies: Russia; the Caucasus and Central Asia; Iran; Iraq; post-Asad Syria; Israel and the Arab world; Cyprus and the Aegean; the Balkans; the European Security and Defense Initiative (ESDI); drugs, thugs, and terror. I would submit that no administration can achieve its objectives on any of these issues unless the Turks are on the same page.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, Syria, and Cyprus

993. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey In The Twenty-First Century

Author:: Niyazi B. Gunay and Ismail Cem
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 28, 2001, His Excellency Ismail Cem, foreign minister of Turkey, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Over the past four years Turkish foreign policy has been experiencing a transformation. Turkey now sees itself not only as part of Europe but also as part of Asia. The Asian character of Turkey, which has been downplayed for decades, has been revitalized, making Turkish foreign policy more active in the Middle East and the former Soviet Union and helping Turkey to improve relations simultaneously with the Arabs and Israel. Turkey's relations with the European Union are progressing favorably; EU membership is a goal, but not an obsession for Turkey.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:: Europe, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

994. At The Bottom Of The Bush-Mubarak Agenda? The Slow Pace Of Political Reform In Egypt

Author:: Amy W. Hawthorne
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Urgent regional matters — such as Iraq and the Arab–Israeli peace process — will dominate the agenda during Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's visit to Washington this week, while Egypt's transition to a free-market economy and U.S.– Egypt trade ties will also receive attention. Egyptian domestic politics, however, will register little, aside from U.S. frustrations over anti-Semitism in the Egyptian press and concern about the status of Egypt's Coptic Christians. Although the regime appears quite stable, having secured a "victory" in its 1990s conflict with violent extremist groups, the state of political reform in Egypt, America's most important Arab ally, merits a closer look. That is because Egypt's long-term economic reform — in which Washington has invested so much — can succeed only if accompanied by meaningful political liberalization.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

995. Turkey And The Bush Administration: The Question Marks

Author:: Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey's economic crisis is naturally the leading issue in bilateral U.S.-Turkish relations, and it is almost certainly topping the agenda of today's meetings of Foreign Minister Ismail Cem with Vice President Richard Cheney and other senior officials. Of course, these meetings pose the difficult question of how much Washington should do, if anything, to bail out its strategically vital ally. But this is only one of several uncertainties characterizing U.S.-Turkish relations in the early days of the Bush administration. Because so much of Turkey's importance to the United States derives from its critical strategic location, bilateral relations are greatly affected by U.S. policies toward other states in Turkey's region. Of most concern to Turkey will be the evolution of Bush administration policy toward Iraq, Iran, and Russia, and also toward Europe's nascent bid to develop an autonomous security capacity.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East

996. Border Disputes On The Arabian Peninsula

Author:: Ramin Seddiq
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is set to rule tomorrow on the longstanding border dispute between two Persian Gulf sheikdoms, Qatar and Bahrain. This dispute has preoccupied the ruling families in both countries for decades. It and the much better known Iraq–Kuwait border dispute (not detailed here) are hardly the only ones on the Arabian Peninsula. Indeed, almost every country on the peninsula has — or until very recently, has experienced — a disagreement over border demarcation.
Topic:: International Relations and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Bahrain, and Arabian Peninsula

997. Special Policy Forum Report: Sanctions And U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:: Raymond Tanter, Meghan O'Sullivan, and Ramin Seddiq
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Sanctions provide the United States with a middle option that has the "least risk" in dealing with problematic Middle Eastern regimes. Sanctions are less costly than military intervention and better than doing nothing at all. During the Cold War, an evaluation of the success of a sanctions policy was not centered on whether or not the sanctions achieved compliance, but on whether such a measure resulted in the prevention of some negative event, such as the seizure of American citizens as hostages in the target states or enhanced Soviet intervention in the region.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, America, Middle East, and Soviet Union

998. Lebanon: Between Hong Kong And Hanoi

Author:: Yossi Baidatz
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In recent weeks, a simmering debate between the two major power centers in domestic Lebanese politics has spilled into public view. This debate pits newly installed Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who represents those who want Lebanon to take advantage of Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon to focus on internal stability, economic reconstruction and securing foreign investment, against Hizballah leader Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, who — with the support of Syria and Iran — champions maintaining Lebanon's role on the front line of the ongoing revolutionary resistance against Israel. This tension was described in the Lebanese newspaper an-Nahar as the choice between "Hanoi" (Nasrallah) and "Hong Kong" (Hariri). As with most Middle East crises, the development of this delicate and flammable dispute carries both risks and opportunities for Lebanon and other players on the Middle East scene.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Hong Kong

999. Khatami In Moscow Boosts Russian-Iranian Arms Cooperation

Author:: Brenda Shaffer
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iranian president Mohammed Khatami will conduct an official visit to Russia on March 11 through March 15. This constitutes the highest-level visit of an Iranian official to Russia since 1989. There could be an intensification of cooperation between Russia and Iran during Khatami's visit — including on arms sales. In addition to military issues, the delineation of borders along the Caspian Sea will be a focus of discussion. Following talks in Moscow, Khatami will visit St. Petersburg and Kazan, the capital of the autonomous Russian republic of Tatarstan.
Topic:: International Relations and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and Moscow

1000. Step Up U.S. Involvement In Turkish Economic Crisis

Author:: Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey's economic near-meltdown last week — its second financial crisis in three months — was precipitated by political problems, not by narrowly economic issues. Until the political problems are addressed, the prospects for any new economic package will be questionable. With Turkish leaders and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) both seemingly floundering, Turkey likely would welcome suggestions on how to proceed, and the United States would do well to send a special high-level representative to Ankara for several days, as a source of informal advice and as a powerful symbol of U.S. support.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Politics, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:: United States, Turkey, and Middle East

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