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402. Quandries and Coalitions: The U.S. Response to September 11
- Author:
- Ray Takeyh
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Given the scope of last week's terrorist attacks and the shadowy nature of the perpetrators, the White House has pledged that U.S. retaliation will be qualitatively different from the past — targeting states as well as organizations, crafting a wide international coalition, employing an array of military, political, and cultural means, and persisting over a long period of time. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld acknowledged that the U.S. response would be "political, economic, diplomatic, and military," while the president unequivocally declared that the objective of the United States "is to rid the world of evil." Deciding how to achieve these goals, however, raises several quandaries.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries
403. Osama bin Laden, the Taliban, and the Challenge of State Sponsors
- Author:
- Michael Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Three days after the horrific attacks against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, investigators are concentrating on al-Qaida, the terrorist network of Saudi financier Osama bin Laden. But as President Bush warned, focusing on the perpetrators must not detract from focusing on those that make his operation possible.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Taliban, and Arab Countries
404. The Ibrahim Case and U.S. Egypt Policy: Toward a More Robust Approach
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In a glimmer of hope for Egyptian-American democracy advocate Saad ed-Din Ibrahim and five of his colleagues — sentenced to prison in May — Egypt's Court of Cassation last week set an October 17 hearing for a petition to suspend their sentences while the verdict is under appeal. This news, along with the arrival in Cairo of a new U.S. ambassador, should give the United States the opportunity to pursue the Ibrahim case more vigorously, despite the tension this may add to U.S.-Egyptian relations at a time of regional conflict.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Cairo
405. Special Policy Forum Report: Durban, the Human Rights Community, and the Middle East
- Author:
- Irwin Cotler
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 7, 2001, Irwin Cotler, member of the Canadian parliament and co-chair of the Joint House-Senate Parliamentary Human Rights Group, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Human Rights, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
406. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part II)
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran could have a number of direct and indirect effects on the region: First, a nuclear breakout by either will cause the United States to be much more careful in its dealings with that state, particularly when it comes to considering military action. America's military freedom-of-action will be greatly constrained. Second, an Iraqi breakout would almost certainly cause Iran to further accelerate its own nuclear efforts and might spur Tehran to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which it increasingly sees as a liability. Third, the emergence of a nuclear Iraq and/or Iran could cause the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to seek an independent deterrent capability — including chemical weapons. (The large petrochemical industries of the Gulf could provide many of the precursor chemicals needed for such an effort.) Saudi Arabia might even seek to buy nuclear weapons from Pakistan.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, Iraq, America, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
407. Preparing for Nuclear Breakout in the Middle East (Part I)
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As U.S. policymakers review options for national missile defense and ways to reshape the military to meet future threats, nuclear proliferation — particularly in the Middle East — looms large as one of the most critical future challenges facing the United States. In the coming years, it is conceivable, if not likely, that the United States will have to respond to a nuclear breakout by Iraq and/or Iran. Such a development could have a dramatic impact on the strategic environment of the Middle East by altering the regional balance of power and encouraging further proliferation in the region and beyond. A nuclear breakout by either of these countries would also undermine international proliferation norms, put U.S. forces in the region at risk, pose a direct threat to U.S. friends and allies, and greatly constrain America's military freedom of action in the region. The likelihood of such a development — or at least its potential impact — will, however, be influenced by steps the United States takes now to deal with such an eventuality. And Washington is more likely to successfully manage the consequences of a nuclear breakout by Iraq or Iran if its response is not improvised, but based on prior planning.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
408. Khatami's New Term and Ilsa's New Life
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- August 5 is an auspicious day for Iran, as it marks the inauguration of Mohammed Khatami's second four-year term as president of that country. It is also the day that the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) would have expired, had its renewal not received an overwhelming vote last week by 96-2 in the Senate and 409-6 in the House. Khatami's cabinet choices, which he is expected to announce at his inaugural, will indicate much about where Iran is heading. Similarly, how the Bush administration administers a renewed ILSA will indicate much about the direction of U.S.-Iran policy.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Libya, and Arab Countries
409. Durban and the Middle East: Challenges for U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Michael Colson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- At the end of August, the United Nations is set to convene a "World Conference Against Racism, Racial Discrimination, Xenophobia and Related Intolerance" (WCAR) in Durban, South Africa. But with less than one month to go, preparations for the conference are in shambles. Draft texts under consideration are replete with language equating Zionism with racism. Efforts to address anti-Semitism and the Holocaust have been perverted beyond recognition. Governments and nongovernmental organizations are demanding apologies and recognition of the right to reparations and compensation for slavery, the slave trade, colonialism, and other historical wrongs. These problems have prompted the Bush administration to warn that it may boycott the entire event.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, South Africa, and Arab Countries
410. Iraq Policy: Thinking Beyond Smart Sanctions
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- August 2, 2001 marks eleven years since Saddam Husayn invaded Kuwait. Given Washington's unsuccessful effort to win UN Security Council approval for a reformed sanctions regime, the Bush administration must now reconsider the options for Iraq policy.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Kuwait, and Arab Countries
411. Jordan's New Election Law: New Tactics, Old Strategy?
- Author:
- David Schenker
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This week, Jordan's King Abdullah took two major decisions that will have significant implications for the kingdom's complicated and often troubled relations with its Palestinian and Islamist communities. Last Sunday, Abdullah approved a new election law; two days later, he issued a decree indefinitely postponing parliamentary elections. Taken together, these moves appear designed to bolster the stability of the kingdom, though it is still too early to assess whether the regime wins or loses from these parliamentary gambits.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and Law
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Jordan
412. Special Policy Forum Report: Arab States vs. Islamists -- Past Record, Future Prospects
- Author:
- Ibrahim Karawan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On July 10, 2001, Professor Ibrahim Karawan, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah and Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. The record of prediction about Islamism as a political force has been unimpressive. The failure is due to inadequacies in conceptualizing what is known, more than any shortage of raw data.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
413. Special Policy Forum Report: Khobar Towers Five Years Later -- Evaluating the Criminal Justice Approach to Counterterrorism
- Author:
- Ruth Wedgwood
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On June 25, the fifth anniversary of the Khobar Towers bombing, Dr. Ruth Wedgwood, professor of international law at the Yale Law School and Edward B. Burling Professor of International Law and Diplomacy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (2001-2002), addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
414. Special Policy Forum Report -- Northern Iraq, Sanctions, and U.S. Iraq Policy
- Author:
- Michael Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On June 27, 2001, Michael Rubin, a Washington Institute visiting scholar and Carnegie Council fellow, addressed the Washington Institute's Policy Forum. Dr. Rubin has just returned from nine months in northern Iraq, where he taught in the region's three universities. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Iraq remains at the forefront of U.S. and international attention. Many contentious issues — such as sanctions, weapons of mass destruction, and the future political disposition of the country — remain unresolved. In analyzing the source of Iraq's problems, it is useful to compare those portions of Iraq under the control of Saddam Hussein to the three northern governorates (Dahuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniyyah), which are controlled by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and the Islamic Unity Movement of Kurdistan — especially as all parts of Iraq fall under the same set of UN sanctions. The population in the north is approximately 3.5 million, many of whom are Kurdish, Turkoman, or Assyrian, and almost 1 million of whom are displaced persons expelled from Saddam's portion of Iraq. By refusing to grant visas to many journalists, Saddam's government consistently seeks to deny press coverage to northern Iraq. Those who do visit Baghdad-controlled Iraq are restricted to guided tours with Iraqi government minders and are prevented from traveling into the Kurdish-controlled north. Foreigners visiting the north, however, are able to move around freely without prearrangement.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries
415. Confusing Signals Out of Saudi Arabia
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On Friday in Europe, Secretary of State Colin Powell is set to meet Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Washington's relationship with the world's largest oil exporter has become strained for reasons more complicated than Crown Prince Abdullah's recent reluctance to meet President Bush at the White House, allegedly because of perceived U.S. bias toward Israel and against the Palestinians. Saudi diplomacy suffers a credibility problem because contradictory statements by top Saudi officials often leave diplomats guessing as to what is the real Saudi position.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia
416. Special Policy Forum Report -- Iran's Hardline Vigilantes and the Prospects for Reform
- Author:
- Michael Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On June 5, 2001, Michael Rubin, a Washington Institute visiting scholar who was in 2000/2001 a visiting professor at the three universities in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, addressed the Institute's Policy Forum luncheon. This event marked the publication of Dr. Rubin's new study, Into the Shadows: Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran (Policy Paper no. 56, The Washington Institute). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
417. June 7 Khatami's Re-Election and Iran's Pressing Problems
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Tomorrow, Mohammed Khatami is sure to be re-elected president of Iran. But that is not likely to make much difference to Iranians, as Khatami has no coherent program for any of Iran's three pressing problems: economic revitalization, political liberalization, and reduction of security threats. Even though Khatami has shown disinterest in improving relations with the United States, Washington should try once again, while not expecting much-if any-response.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
418. Special Policy Forum Report: The Iranian Presidential Poll: Does It Really Matter?
- Author:
- Geneive Abdo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In May, Geneive Abdo, a research scholar at the Middle East Institute of the Columbia University School of International Affairs, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. To see her remarks in their entirety, The election of Muhammad Khatami as president of Iran four years ago has given rise to a perception that he is a maverick, a rare political leader in Iranian history who advocates values important to the Western world: political pluralism, freedom of expression, and human rights for all, including religious minorities. However, Khatami's unwillingness to confront the establishment became clear early in his presidency. After students staged five days of protest in July 1999 — the first true test of Khatami's courage — the president took a different turn. He decided at critical moments to side with the establishment, no matter how much he might alienate his own supporters.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
419. 'Re-Energizing' UN Sanctions on Iraq: Problems and Prospects
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- This week, the United States and United Kingdom are circulating a draft resolution in the UN Security Council proposing a package of new measures intended to "re-energize" sanctions against Iraq. They hope to bring the resolution to a vote before the next six-month phase of the "oil for food" program begins on June 4. This revamped sanctions regime will lift restrictions on civilian trade, while retaining both international control over Iraq's oil income through the UN escrow account, and a ban on the import of arms and dual-use items critical to the production of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and Arab Countries
420. President Bush's National Energy Policy and the Middle East
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Bush administration this week launched initiatives on two fronts of U.S. concern about the Middle East: Secretary of State Colin Powell's proposals to end Arab–Israeli violence and Vice President Dick Cheney's national energy policy. While the energy policy report concentrates on domestic issues, it necessarily discusses the Middle East. Its prescriptions about the Middle East, however, are vague. At worst, Washington appears unwilling to criticize the price-influencing production policies of the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel, dominated by Middle Eastern countries.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries
421. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey -- Today's Political and Economic Realities
- Author:
- Tansu Ciller
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 8, 2001, Tansu Ciller, former prime minister and the leader of Turkey's True Path Party, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. At the dawn of the new millennium, Turkey remains a significant actor in its region despite economic difficulties. Turkey, a strategic partner with the United States, is a source of steadiness that is vital for peace in its region. Turkey's long relations with Israel play a stabilizing role in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East
422. Special Policy Forum Report: Partners in Need: Russia and Iran's Strategic Relationship
- Author:
- Brenda Shaffer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In April, Brenda Shaffer, research director of Harvard University's Caspian Studies Program and visiting fellow at The Washington Institute in 2000, addressed The Washington Institute to mark the publication of her Policy Paper, Partners in Need: The Strategic Relationship of Russia and Iran. The following is a rapporteur's summary of her remarks. Russia and Iran see themselves as strategic partners, and therefore their relations are based on an overall security conception. It would be a misperception to assume that because Washington and Moscow share concerns about Islamist radicalism that Russia would necessarily decide to cooperate with the United States on Iran. It would also be a misperception to think that Russia wants to sell arms to Iran solely in order to make money and that the United States can induce Russia not to make these sales by offering a better economic deal.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
423. Do Iran's Presidential Elections Matter?
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Today's decision by Iranian president Mohammad Khatami to run for re-election was more important than the actual election on June 8, which he is sure to win. But neither matters nearly as much as the crucial question for Iran's future — namely, will hardliners let the formal government rule or will they continue their crackdown through the revolutionary institutions they control? The answer will be key for U.S. policy options towards Iran.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries
424. Hariri in Washington
- Author:
- Yossi Baidatz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Tomorrow, Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri begins his visit to Washington, his first since the September 2000 elections that saw his return to the office he held from October 1992 to December 1998. His ears are ringing with voices of two interwoven debates at home — namely, debates about the deterioration of the security situation along the Lebanese–Israeli border and about the continued Syrian presence in Lebanon. Hariri, a seasoned businessman who is well aware of the delicacy of the situation and of his limitations as the head of a government with restricted powers, does not see this visit as a mere courtesy call, but as a milestone. To assure his own political survival, he needs to extricate Lebanon from its severe economic crisis and avoid entanglement in war. For the new American administration that is still formulating its Middle Eastern policy, this visit could be an opportunity to prevent a conflagration in Lebanon and to begin a new long-term policy towards Lebanon and Syria.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria
425. Special Policy Forum Report -- Managing U.S.-Turkish Relations
- Author:
- Mark Parris
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Turkey is important . . . The new administration, based on what it has said and done since January, understands this." "One reason [for Turkey's importance], of course, is its location and the issues that come with that geography-big issues; issues that have literally made or broken past administrations' foreign policies: Russia; the Caucasus and Central Asia; Iran; Iraq; post-Asad Syria; Israel and the Arab world; Cyprus and the Aegean; the Balkans; the European Security and Defense Initiative (ESDI); drugs, thugs, and terror. I would submit that no administration can achieve its objectives on any of these issues unless the Turks are on the same page.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, Syria, and Cyprus
426. At The Bottom Of The Bush-Mubarak Agenda? The Slow Pace Of Political Reform In Egypt
- Author:
- Amy W. Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Urgent regional matters — such as Iraq and the Arab–Israeli peace process — will dominate the agenda during Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's visit to Washington this week, while Egypt's transition to a free-market economy and U.S.– Egypt trade ties will also receive attention. Egyptian domestic politics, however, will register little, aside from U.S. frustrations over anti-Semitism in the Egyptian press and concern about the status of Egypt's Coptic Christians. Although the regime appears quite stable, having secured a "victory" in its 1990s conflict with violent extremist groups, the state of political reform in Egypt, America's most important Arab ally, merits a closer look. That is because Egypt's long-term economic reform — in which Washington has invested so much — can succeed only if accompanied by meaningful political liberalization.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt
427. Turkey And The Bush Administration: The Question Marks
- Author:
- Alan Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Turkey's economic crisis is naturally the leading issue in bilateral U.S.-Turkish relations, and it is almost certainly topping the agenda of today's meetings of Foreign Minister Ismail Cem with Vice President Richard Cheney and other senior officials. Of course, these meetings pose the difficult question of how much Washington should do, if anything, to bail out its strategically vital ally. But this is only one of several uncertainties characterizing U.S.-Turkish relations in the early days of the Bush administration. Because so much of Turkey's importance to the United States derives from its critical strategic location, bilateral relations are greatly affected by U.S. policies toward other states in Turkey's region. Of most concern to Turkey will be the evolution of Bush administration policy toward Iraq, Iran, and Russia, and also toward Europe's nascent bid to develop an autonomous security capacity.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East
428. Lebanon: Between Hong Kong And Hanoi
- Author:
- Yossi Baidatz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In recent weeks, a simmering debate between the two major power centers in domestic Lebanese politics has spilled into public view. This debate pits newly installed Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who represents those who want Lebanon to take advantage of Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon to focus on internal stability, economic reconstruction and securing foreign investment, against Hizballah leader Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, who — with the support of Syria and Iran — champions maintaining Lebanon's role on the front line of the ongoing revolutionary resistance against Israel. This tension was described in the Lebanese newspaper an-Nahar as the choice between "Hanoi" (Nasrallah) and "Hong Kong" (Hariri). As with most Middle East crises, the development of this delicate and flammable dispute carries both risks and opportunities for Lebanon and other players on the Middle East scene.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Hong Kong
429. Arab Gulf Politics And Powell's Visit
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Secretary of State Colin Powell and former President George Bush celebrate the tenth anniversary of the liberation of Kuwait, for many Gulf Arabs the occasion marks a decade since Saddam Husayn's tanks put the lie to the promises of security that local leaders had made to their people. After popular trust in these Gulf leaders was tarnished by their need to rely on U.S. and allied forces to expel the Iraqis (despite the billions of dollars of oil wealth these rulers had spent on high-tech weaponry over the years), Gulf monarchs started to concede to their peoples a greater say in political life.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Kuwait
430. The GCC Militaries Since Desert Storm: An Assessment
- Author:
- Michael P. Moskowitz
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When Secretary of State Colin Powell and former President George Bush touch down in Kuwait on Sunday, celebrations scheduled to commemorate the expulsion of Saddam Husayn's forces ten years ago will also—albeit less explicitly—recognize the more robust state of Gulf militaries. A decade after Operation Desert Storm, each of the six states comprising the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—possess armed forces that are not just more modern, but larger than ever before.
- Topic:
- Security and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and United Arab Emirates
431. The 'Al-Aqsa Intifada' And The Prospects For A Wider Arab-Israeli War
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Palestinian officials have threatened an intensification of violence, should — as is expected — Ariel Sharon be elected prime minister of Israel tomorrow. The Palestinian leadership that "rewarded" Prime Minister Ehud Barak's diplomatic flexibility with the "al-Aqsa Intifada" thus seems poised to "punish" the Israeli public for electing Sharon with an escalation of the bloodletting. Its goal would be to force Israel to soften its negotiating position, and perhaps provoke a harsh response that would place world opinion — largely unsympathetic to Sharon to begin with — squarely on the Palestinian side.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, and War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
432. Bahrain's National Charter And Political Reform In The Gulf
- Author:
- Amy Hawthorne
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Bahraini Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Issa al-Khalifa announced January 23 that a national referendum will be held February 14-15 on a National Charter, under which the lower house of a national assembly would be elected in 2004. Sheikh Hamad's reformist moves are the latest example of a trend in the Gulf kingdoms toward the establishment of representative institutions. However, Bahrain's proposed reforms are unlikely to be sufficiently far-reaching to address the political and economic discontent among Bahrain's Shia majority.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Bahrain
433. The Gulf Cooperation Council Defense Pact: An Exercise In Ambiguity
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- January 17 marks the tenth anniversary of the start of Operation Desert Storm in the Middle East, when U.S.-led forces began the liberation of Kuwait. In that operation, the militaries of the Gulf monarchies played a minor role. At their meeting in Bahrain at the end of December, the leaders of these monarchies agreed to a joint defense agreement by which an attack on one would be considered an attack on all. While this agreement could enhance the defense capabilities of these states, they will still be unable to fend off attack by either of their large neighbors, Iraq or Iran. The monarchies will continue to rely on the United States as their ultimate security guarantor.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Kuwait
434. Can Iraq Reconstitute The Arab Eastern Front Against Israel?
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- While President Bill Clinton is laying out his plans for peace in the Middle East, others are talking about their readiness for war. Iraqi dictator Saddam Husayn's defiant January 6 Army Day speech supporting the Palestinian revolt followed on the December 31 four-hour "Al Aqsa Call" military parade in Baghdad dedicated to the Palestinian cause. By some reports, this parade included hundreds of tanks, dozens of helicopters, new troop-transport trucks, and new short-range missiles — impressive, given that the Iraqi army was assumed to be having problems maintaining its equipment, much less acquiring new systems. One unconfirmed report suggests that elements of the Hamurabi Republican Guard Division would be permanently stationed west of Baghdad on the road to either Syria and Jordan.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Jordan
435. Special Soref Symposium Report: Israel's Search for Security and Peace
- Author:
- Limor Livnat
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- " . . . The political road that brought us to the crossroads we are now at was one replete with navigational errors, steering miscalculations, and poor vision, traveled by fatigue-driven guides driving under the influence of reckless idealism and senseless naïveté . . . On February 6 of this year, the people of Israel made it eminently clear that they know it, and have left the road that led from Oslo to chaos and bloodshed in their homes and on their streets. The best of Israel's political pundits could not have imagined that Ariel Sharon would ever be elected prime minister of Israel, let alone with a plurality unprecedented in democratic nations. But they did not understand the people of Israel, and probably still don't. It was the most potent statement imaginable in favor of a new road and a more promising future."
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries
436. FORCE-17: The Renewal Of Old Competition Motivates Violence
- Author:
- Reuven Paz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- During the recent intifada, certain Palestinian security forces have been intensively involved in violent attacks on Israeli military and civilian targets. Most prominently involved have been the personal security guards of Yasir Arafat, popularly known as Force-17 and officially called Amn al-Ri'asah(Presidential Security). On March 30, Israeli forces bombarded from the air two of the headquarters of this force in Ramallah and Gaza, in the first serious Israeli retaliation under the new Sharon government. Then in early April, Israeli forces arrested several members of this force inside Area A, the area that is under full control of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
437. Sharon's Victory: Implications For The Peace Process And U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 02-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Israeli people spoke in the most dramatic and convincing fashion. Viewed in the U.S. context, Ariel Sharon won a larger share of the vote — 62.5 percent — than any presidential candidate in history. Essentially, Israel voted to express one word: "enough!" — enough violence, enough concessions, enough perception of weakness. They were particularly voting against Barak, both personally and against the policies that characterized his government (dating not only to Camp David but as far back as the earliest days of his cabinet). Certainly, much of yesterday's vote was against Barak more than it was a vote for Sharon; just as Barak's 1999 landslide was less a vote for him than it was a vote against Bibi Netanyahu; just as Netanyahu's 1996 squeaker was less a vote for him than it was a vote against Shimon Peres. Now it's Sharon's turn.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Israel
438. Time Running Out On Clinton Proposals
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Meetings this week between Israeli and Palestinian security and political personnel notwithstanding, time has virtually run out for any Israeli–Palestinian peace deal. It is important to note that the issue is not just one of time, even though President Clinton leaves office next Saturday. Top Clinton Administration officials have made clear that the Palestinians have engaged in "delays" since the December 23 ideas were tabled. Seeking to avoid the international disapproval that mushroomed in the wake of last summer's failed Camp David summit, Yasir Arafat came to Washington with an apparent "yes, but" view of the proposals. However, this approach seems clearly to be little more than a public-relations tactic.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Migration, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
439. From Bilateralism To Internationalization: Security Implications Of The U.S. Bridging Proposals
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With President Clinton due to meet Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat today for a last-ditch diplomatic effort, attention is focused mainly on two aspects of the U.S. bridging proposals: the division of Jerusalem and the future status of Palestinian refugees. In contrast, little attention has so far been devoted to the security aspects of the U.S. proposals. While less emotive, security issues need to be central to U.S. concerns about the viability of any "final status" accord and its impact on U.S. interests and allies. It is difficult, however, to assess this aspect of the proposals because so many key security issues were evidently not raised by the President in his pre-Christmas oral presentation to the two sides. They may have been the subject of previous or subsequent discussions among the parties, but they were not on the President's core agenda.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Palestine
440. From Shebaa To Al-Quds: The Evolution Of Hizballah
- Author:
- Yossi Baidatz and Rachel Stroumsa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- While international attention has been focused on the shift from diplomacy to violence in the Israeli–Palestinian arena, the "comeback" of Lebanon's Hizballah organization as an instigator of conflict has been, to some observers, a surprise. Following Israel's withdrawal from the "security zone" in May 2000, it was widely held that Hizballah would rest on its laurels and focus on its political/social agenda inside Lebanon. Instead, as recent events show, Hizballah has chosen to persist in its military strategy against Israel. Indeed, in contrast to the low-intensity conflict on the Palestinian front, Hizballah's actions have the potential to trigger a full-scale, inter-state war.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Lebanon
441. Assessing Barak's Election Gambit
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's surprise resignation Saturday night has plunged the country's already battered political system into further turmoil, and so far, his gambit seems to have failed. Barak's move was clearly designed, at least in part, to utilize a provision in Israeli law that would sideline his once and would-be opponent Benjamin Netanyahu from running in a special election for prime minister on February 6. Moreover, Barak hoped that by avoiding a general election, he could avert the reconfiguration of the Knesset since polls show that if elections were held today, it would become a more rightward-leaning body.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
442. The Separation Option: An Alternative To The Peace Process?
- Author:
- Dan Schueftan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Recently, public opinion in both Israel and the Palestinian territories has shifted in ways that argue for separation or disengagement. Israelis no longer accept the notion that negotiations will eventually lead to peace, but they are far more willing to make concessions to the Palestinians. Palestinians no longer expect a final agreement with Israel, and have instead shifted toward the Lebanon model of using violence to force an Israeli retreat — a trend with tragic implications for the future of Palestinian society.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
443. Israeli Elections And The Peace Process
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's decision yesterday to preempt his opponents and announce his willingness to hold early elections must be seen in the context of his interest in reviving the peace process. The vote for early balloting was driven by both animus toward the failed Camp David summit and by the Barak government's handling of the subsequent Al-Aqsa Intifada.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
444. A UN Protection Force For Palestinians: Background And Implications
- Author:
- Robert Satloff and Rachel Stroumsa
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In recent weeks, Arab parties from the Palestinian Authority (PA) to the Arab League summit have called for the dispatch of a United Nations force to the West Bank and Gaza in order to protect Palestinian civilians from Israeli military force. Rather than reject this idea because of its contribution to the internationalization of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, the U.S. view has been to cite its impracticality, given Israeli opposition. Remarkably, the Israeli government itself seems to be hinting that it may be willing to consider the proposal, especially in the event of a reduction in violence. This is evidenced by recent talks between Israeli and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) representatives to the United Nations, reportedly hosted by their Egyptian colleague.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Gaza, and Egypt
445. Special Policy Forum Report: Israeli Security Strategy: Facing Multiple Fronts
- Author:
- Ephraim Sneh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Recently, four factors have combined to make the situation in the Middle East far more combustible than it is has been for a long time. These elements are: Iraq has managed to break out of the boundaries imposed by the UN sanctions regime and to evade weapons inspections. Saddam Husayn is now stronger than ever and ready to play a role in the region. He has signaled this intention by his deployment of troops on the western borders of Iraq just before the Arab summit in Egypt. Although he has since pulled them back, this maneuver was intended to send the message that Saddam Husayn is a force to be reckoned with from now on. Iran has enhanced its efforts to use a consortium of terrorist groups against the remnants of the peace process. Intelligence information shows that Iran has deployed long-range Katyusha missiles in Lebanon and that it is encouraging Hizballah activities against Israel. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has disappointed most analysts, who hoped that he would focus on addressing Syria's economy and other domestic concerns. Instead, his speeches both at the Arab summit in Egypt and at the Organization of the Islamic Conference in Qatar have been extremely bellicose. In addition, it is clear that the recent kidnappings by Hizballah and a Palestinian group's attempt to infiltrate Israel through Lebanon could not have taken place without at the least a green light from Damascus, even if Bashar himself did not authorize them specifically. Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat has evidently changed course from negotiation to confrontation. So far, the Palestinian cause has proven to be uniting force in the Arab world; under certain circumstances, it might also serve as a good pretext for resumption of full-scale hostilities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Syria, and Egypt
446. Non-Lethal Weapons, 'Excessive Force' And The Al-Aqsa Intifada
- Author:
- Michael Eisenstadt
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of the Al-Aqsa Intifada, accusations that Israel has used "excessive force" in dealing with Palestinians have led to calls for Israel to employ "non-lethal" weapons as a way to reduce Palestinian casualties and stem the cycle of violence between the two sides. In fact, however, Israel is already using the rather limited range of traditional "less lethal" (LL) and "non-lethal" (NL) weapons that are used by most modern armies. More exotic, nontraditional concepts that have been under development in the past few years are either not yet ready for fielding (as in the case of so-called "acoustic weapons"), or have potential drawbacks which vitiate their potential operational utility (as with "sticky foam").
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
447. Special Policy Forum Report: Arafat's Strategy -- Impose An Intifada, Spillover To The Arab World
- Author:
- Ehud Yaari
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The events of the past five weeks are not a repeat of the Palestinian Intifada of 1987-90, a spontaneous uprising that caught both Chairman Yasir Arafat and Israel equally by surprise. Rather, the current uprising is a confrontation imposed by Arafat on the Palestinian street. Three major elements of the original Intifada are missing in the current situation: 1) The countryside, a backbone of the original Intifada, has so far opted out of the current struggle; 2) the population of east Jerusalem has distanced itself, to the extent that the Tanzim has had to send people from Ramallah and the refugee camps into Jerusalem in order to engineer confrontations. Seen from this angle, the shooting of Israeli guards at the National Insurance Institute in east Jerusalem is a signal to Jerusalem Arabs that Arafat will not permit them to remain on the sidelines; 3) the lower middle classes, a prominent player during the original Intifada, are absent. While thousands may participate in funeral processions, very few (including very few students) join in confrontations with Israeli soldiers at the major flashpoints; the size of these confrontations rarely exceeds a few hundred.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Jerusalem
448. The Israeli-Lebanese Border Dispute And Resolution 425: Recent Declarations By The United States And The United Nations
- Author:
- Liat Radcliffe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- "The Arab leaders affirm that just, comprehensive peace will not be achieved except with . . . the restoration of all the occupied Arab territories, including full Israeli withdrawal from . . . southern Lebanon to the internationally recognized borders, including Shebaa farms, the release of Arab prisoners in Israeli prisons in implementation of the relevant UN resolutions. . . ."
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Lebanon
449. Between Terrorism And Truce: Developments In Middle East Violence
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The truce reached today should be interpreted very cautiously, given both today's terror bombing in Jerusalem, which killed two Israeli civilians, and the two previous failed ceasefires recently brokered by the United States in Paris and Sharm el-Sheikh, respectively. Palestinian Authority (PA) leader Yasir Arafat was due to announce the truce but instead opted to have other PA officials announce it on Palestinian television and radio. Moreover, Hamas quickly declared that it is not bound by the terms of the ceasefire. Prime Minister Ehud Barak's office nevertheless announced that the ceasefire is in effect.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, Paris, Arabia, and Jerusalem
450. Special Policy Forum Report: New Paradigms In Arab Politics And The Peace Process
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On Friday, October 27, 2000, Washington Institute Executive Director Dr. Robert Satloff delivered a presentation on the current Middle East situation to a Special Policy Forum luncheon briefing. Following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Diplomacy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries