Content Type: Policy Brief / Publishing Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy / Political Geography: Middle East / Topic: International Relations

1. The 2021 Iranian Presidential Election A Preliminary Assessment

Author:: Albert B. Wolf
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Whoever wins, the result will intimate deeper trends in Iranian society, such as public support for the regime and the Supreme Leader’s intentions for the country’s future. The Washington Institute has been sponsoring a series of discussions about sudden succession in the Middle East. Each session focuses on scenarios that might unfold if a specific ruler or leader departed the scene tomorrow. Questions include these: Would the sudden change lead to different policies? Would it affect the stability of the respective countries involved, or the region as a whole? What would be the impact on U.S. interests? Would the manner of a leader’s departure make a difference? The discussions also probe how the U.S. government might adjust to the new situation or influence outcomes. This essay, thirteenth in the series, assesses the situation in Iran, where a June election will determine the successor to President Hassan Rouhani. An IRGC-backed candidate such as Majlis speaker Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf or former defense minister Hossein Dehghan could ultimately prevail—but a history of election surprises in the Islamic Republic suggests no outcome is certain. Whoever wins, the result will offer clues about deeper trends in Iranian society, such as public support for the regime and the Supreme Leader’s intentions for the country’s future.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

2. A New West in the Middle East: Toward a Humbler, More Effective Model of Transatlantic Cooperation

Author:: Charles Thépaut
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: U.S.-European cooperation in the Middle East may not rank high in American voters’ minds, but the issue will demand close policy attention in the months ahead. If Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump, European leaders should not allow their undoubted relief to lapse into complacency. And if Trump prevails, they should continue seeking opportunities to deepen the partnership in areas such as counterproliferation and defining the operational contours of Great Power competition. Either way, the dynamic requires a full reset. As one continental diplomat lamented, “Under Bush, Europeans agreed less with the U.S. but were more consulted. Under Obama, they agreed more but were less consulted. Under Trump, they disagree and are barely consulted.” In this new Policy Note, Charles Thepaut deftly assesses the transatlantic dilemma explaining why the post-election period will call for a strategic reckoning between European capitals and Washington. From shared priorities, a fresh approach can emerge in the Middle East, coupled with the pursuit of achievable goals and rooted in a more thoughtful division of military and political tasks.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and United States of America

3. Navigating a Growing Chinese Influence in Iraqi Kurdistan

Author:: Sardar Aziz
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: When I moved into new accommodations in the centre of Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq, the lift announcements in the apartment tower were in Chinese, followed by Kurdish, Arabic and English. This multilingualism was surprising but positive; it was a clear sign of the dawn of a new era. If in the past, Kurdish was the local language, Arabic regional, and English global, the addition of Chinese signified the plurality of global language and, potentially, of global power. These days, there is a regional focus on Iran’s newly announced 25 year deal with China, which has resulted in a lot of noise both inside and outside Iran. It is not surprising that Sino–Iranian relations are continuing to develop as both countries are hoping for a different world order. Though not so scrutinized, Iraq has seen its own growing ties with China, with the two countries having signed a number of agreements last year. Former Iraqi PM Adil Abdul-Mahdi, once a Maoist himself, stated in his visit to Beijing ‘we belong to Asia and we want to be a part of its emergence.’ The large Iraqi delegation accompanying him—as told to me by one member of the delegation—all noted and admired what they saw as China’s shift from a poor country to a global power. The deal agreed upon during that meeting, in remaining secret, has created fertile ground for conspiracy and speculations inside Iraq.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, Iraq, Middle East, Asia, and Kurdistan

4. Rebuilding Alliances and Countering Threats in the Gulf

Author:: Lori Plotkin Boghardt and Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Trump administration has an opportunity to reset, tighten, and maximize America's strategic relations with the Gulf states. For the United States, expanded security cooperation and coordination could be a force multiplier in campaigns to achieve key policy goals, such as countering Iran's destabilizing policies and defeating the Islamic State. Gulf leaders have expressed optimism over the new administration's gestures, despite its "America First" rhetoric. But the administration also faces challenges, including those brought about by its own emphasis on "radical Islamic terrorism." This two-part Transition 2017 paper, featuring contributions by Gulf experts Lori Plotkin Boghardt and Simon Henderson, navigates the complex U.S.-Gulf relationship. The first essay provides an overview of its basic tenets, stressing the importance of rapport to bilateral ties and discussing key policy priorities. The second essay narrows the focus to the Washington-Riyadh link, the most important U.S. tie with the conservative Gulf. It analyzes differences in viewpoint, policy options, and some anticipated Saudi responses on the core issues of oil, terrorism, Iran, Yemen, Syria, Gulf allies, and the Sunni bloc.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: America and Middle East

5. Biden's Israel Visit and Its Aftermath: The Importance of Maintaining Strategic Direction in U.S. Middle East Policy

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In less than forty-eight hours, U.S.-Israel relations went from "unbreakable," according to Vice President Joe Biden, to "perilous," as ascribed to an "unnamed senior U.S. official." This drastic mood swing risks overshadowing the great achievement of the vice president's Middle East trip -- the affirmation for Israelis (as well as those Arabs and Iranians following his words) that the Obama administration is "determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons."
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

6. Israel as the 'National Homeland of the Jewish People': Looking Back and Ahead

Author:: Tal Becker and Hussein Ibish
Publication Date:: 03-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A great deal of misinformation and disinformation surrounds Israel's desire to be recognized as a Jewish state. In practice, the concept refers to acknowledgment of the Jewish people's right to self-determination in the land of Israel, also known as Zionism. The land does not necessarily encompass what many call "Greater Israel," which includes the West Bank, or deny the right to self-determination of neighboring Palestinians, who deserve a state of their own. The issue of Israel's recognition as a Jewish state has grown in prominence in the last year as Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has made it a point of emphasis.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

7. The Origins of the U.S.-Israeli Relationship: Truman and the Jewish State

Author:: Allis Radosh and Ronald Radosh
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: When Harry Truman became president in April 1945, he had not thought deeply about the exact form a Jewish national home in historic Palestine would or should take. Following his landmark decision to recognize the state of Israel in May 1948, he would suggest that his support for such a development had been unwavering, and that his decisions had come easily. Yet the record shows otherwise. Between Truman's first days as president and Israel's formation, his approach to the idea of a Jewish state evolved significantly, at times seeming to change in response to the last person with whom he met. Although he ultimately made the historic decision, a Jewish state had never been, in his mind, a foregone conclusion.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, New York, Middle East, and Israel

8. Proximity Talks: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 05-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: U.S. special envoy for Middle East peace George Mitchell is currently in Jerusalem amid wide expectation that on Saturday the Palestinians will approve proximity talks with Israel. For its part, Israel has already agreed to the talks.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

9. Major U.S.-Saudi Arms Deal to Bolster Riyadh against Iran

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 08-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: When Congress returns from its summer recess after Labor Day, the Department of Defense will provide informal notification of the U.S. intention to sell up to $60 billion in military equipment to Saudi Arabia. The likely deal is part of a U.S. commitment predating the Obama administration to strengthen regional allies in the face of a growing threat from Iran. For the Saudis, the transaction represents a clear return to considering the United States as its principal arms supplier, a position the Americans risked losing to France as recently as 2006.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

10. Broadening the U.S. Approach on Iran

Author:: Michael Singh
Publication Date:: 09-2009
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With Iran's September 14 acceptance of a meeting with the P5+1 countries on October 1, the Obama administration finally appears poised to engage in direct talks with Iran. In entering these talks, Washington faces two obstacles: first, Iran's reputation for recalcitrance in negotiations and its stated refusal to discuss the nuclear issue, upon which American concerns center; and second, the perception that the administration is lending legitimacy to a regime fresh from violent repression of its political opponents.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

11. Shimon Peres Addresses The Washington Institute's Soref Symposium

Author:: David Makovsky and Shimon Peres
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Can Israel live with an Iranian nuclear bomb? If the Iranians continue to do three things simultaneously -- namely, develop nuclear weapons, be a center of terror, and be fanatical in their ambition to run the entire Middle East -- eventually the three will mix and nuclear bombs may fall into the irresponsible hands of terrorists. Then it will be a problem for the rest of the world. The world cannot live with terrorists obtaining nuclear capacity, and sooner or later the world will take action. However, I do not believe that Israel has to be a volunteer or pioneer in that endeavor.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

12. The Future of Palestinian Politics

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi, Wafa' Abdel Rahman, and Owen Kirby
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Democratic development in the Palestinian Authority (PA) is at the top of the Bush administration's priorities. While the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections of January 2006 were democratic, democratic elections by themselves do not constitute a democratic system. The current situation in the West Bank and Gaza cannot be called democratic by international norms. Respect for the rule of law and human rights and observation of individual rights and freedoms do not currently prevail in the PA.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

13. A Resurgent al-Qaeda and U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy

Author:: Michael Jacobsen
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Media headlines following the April 30 release of the State Department's annual report on global terrorism developments, Country Reports on Terrorism 2006, focused on the theme of increased terrorism. But the335-page document, along with its accompanying statistical assessment produced by the National Counter terrorism Center (NCTC), also contained important insights into the U.S. administration's evolving strategy to counter the terrorist threat.
Topic:: International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

14. Turkey's 'Smart' Islamist Challenge

Author:: Soner Cagaptay and Yuksel Sezgin
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 20, thousands of secular Turks demonstrated in the Black Sea port city of Samsun against the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has an Islamist pedigree. It was the most recent display of protest in a power struggle between the AKP and its opponents over determining a replacement for outgoing president Ahmet Necdet Sezer. In addition to the protestors and Sezer, the courts and the Turkish military have weighed in against the AKP. Far from backing down, as Turkey's Islamists would have done in the past, the AKP has stepped up the pressure by introducing a constitutional amendment package that calls for direct presidential elections to replace the current system of voting in parliament. President Sezer could decide the fate of this package, but the political crisis will continue.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East

15. 'Bad Veils' and Arrested Scholars: Iran's Fear of a Velvet Revolution

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Despite the public bluster of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the regime's behavior shows that it suffers from deep self-doubt. The arrests of visiting Iranian-born U.S. scholars Haleh Esfandiari (director of the Middle East program at the Woodrow Wilson Center) and Kian Tajbakhsh (a consultant for philanthropist George Soros's Open Society Institute programs) reflect Tehran's fear that political change could be easily sparked. A May 22 ABC News report that President Bush has authorized a covert CIA program against the regime will only add to Iran's suspicions.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

16. Building on a Vacuum: Ways Forward after the U.S.-Iranian Meeting

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The May 28 meeting between the U.S. and Iranian ambassadors to Iraq was mostly notable for its length -- four hours -- and the lack of anything to show for all that time together. And the very next day, Iran announced that three detained Iranian Americans visiting their homeland, including renowned scholar and women's rights advocate Haleh Esfandiari, were being formally charged with espionage -- charges that would be merely laughable if they were not so tragic.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

17. PolicyWatch #1241: Special Forum Report: The Future of Syria: Challenges and Prospects

Author:: Barry Rubin and Theodore Kattouf
Publication Date:: 06-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 30, 2007, Barry Rubin and Theodore Kattouf addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Professor Rubin, a visiting fellow at the Institute, is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA), and author of the just-released book The Truth about Syria (Palgrave). Mr. Kattouf, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and the United Arab Emirates, is president and CEO of AMIDEAST, a nonprofit group dedicated to enhancing educational links between the United States and the Middle East. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria

18. Cheney in the Middle East: Defining Key Issues and Mutual Interests

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Vice President Dick Cheney departed today on a trip to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. A bland statement issued from his office on May 3 said he was asked to travel by President Bush and would be having "discussions with the leaders of these countries on key issues of mutual interest." No details were offered of the subjects of these discussions, but vice presidents do not travel halfway around the world unless there is important business to conduct.
Topic:: International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East

19. The British Naval Detainees and Iranian Public Opinion

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At an April 3 news conference in Tehran, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad unexpectedly announced the decision to release fifteen captured British marines and sailors. In a theatrical gesture that included assailing Western policy in the Middle East and accusing the British crew of entering Iranian waters, he pardoned the detainees to mark both the Prophet Muhammad's birthday on March 30 and what he reportedly called "Christian Passover." (In Farsi, "Pesah" means Passover and "Fash" means Easter. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency report of his remarks, the president used Pesah instead of Fash.)
Topic:: International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

20. An Iranian Financial Intelligence Unit: Less than Meets the Eye

Author:: Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:: 04-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The State Department's International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, released on March 1, offers a little-noted reference to a dubious claim: an Iranian government statement (made to the UN) that Tehran has established a Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU). The report notes that Iran has provided no further details. Even if the Iranian claim were true, the creation of an FIU would do little to combat terrorism financing in the nation, given Tehran's official support for terrorist groups. In other countries, FIUs are an important element of effective counterterrorism policy -- though the record of key Middle Eastern nations is somewhat mixed in this regard.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

21. Gulf Challenge: Iran's Seizure of British Naval Personnel

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 23, at 10:30 a.m. local Iraqi time, fifteen British naval personnel were seized by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the northern Persian Gulf. The British personnel -- eight from the Royal Navy and seven from the Royal Marines -- were in two light craft returning to the frigate HMS Cornwall after successfully inspecting a merchant ship for goods being smuggled into Iraq. Iran has accused the personnel, who include one woman, of illegally entering Iranian territorial waters, and has threatened to put them on trial. The incident is a diplomatic and military embarrassment to Britain. Meanwhile, fears of escalation in the Gulf have contributed to a global surge in oil prices.
Topic:: International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Britain, Iraq, United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

22. Can Syria Come in from the Cold?

Author:: Seth Wikas
Publication Date:: 03-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the coming weeks, Syria will participate in two important regional conferences. On March 10, it will join Iraq's other neighbors and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council in Baghdad. On March 28-29, it will participate in the Arab League summit in Riyadh. Syria's detractors continue to criticize Damascus for failing to seal the border with Iraq and for meddling in Lebanese internal affairs in violation of UN Security Resolution 1701. Of equal importance is the downturn in Syria's relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Last week's Saudi-Iranian summit has Damascus worried about its role in Lebanon and the possibility of an international tribunal on the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, a crime for which Syria is widely believed to be responsible. Will the upcoming conferences give Syria a chance to improve its regional standing, or will its isolation continue?
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Baghdad, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

23. Saudi-Iranian Mediation on Hizballah: Will a Lebanon Deal Come at Syria's Expense?

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 20, the Lebanese cabinet—with a Hizballah-led opposition boycott—extended the term of the UN commission investigating the February 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. While the commission's work can now continue for as long as one more year, any future decision about organizing an international tribunal to try those indicted for the murder remains hostage to a vote—requiring the opposition's assent—in the paralyzed Lebanese parliament. Meanwhile, Hizballah continues to press its demand for increased political power within a “national unity” government, threatening civil disobedience should its demands not be met.
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

24. Shutting Hizballah's 'Construction Jihad'

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 20, the U.S. Department of the Treasury designated Jihad al-Bina, Hizballah's construction company in Lebanon, effectively shutting the terrorist group's firm out of the international financial system. While the designation will not take effect at the United Nations -- sanctions under UN Security Council Resolution 1267 only target elements associated with al-Qaeda or the Taliban, to the exclusion of any other terrorist groups -- international lenders and donors, including financial institutions, NGOs, and governments, are unlikely to want to assume the reputational risk of working to rebuild Lebanon in partnership with Hizballah instead of the Lebanese government. Moreover -- and contrary to conventional wisdom -- the designation presents a rare public diplomacy opportunity in the battle of ideas in the war on terror.
Topic:: International Relations, Peace Studies, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Taliban, and Lebanon

25. Hamas's Victory: From Gaza to Mecca

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As recently as December, Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas refused to back a proposal for a unity government offered by Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) member and head of the Independent Palestine list Mustafa Barghouti. That deal was based on the concept of a technocratic compromise under which Hamas officials would not have held the prime ministership or led any ministries. Yet under the terms of the February 8 Mecca accord, the current prime minister, Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh, will stay on as head of the next government, and the only portfolios Hamas members specifically will not hold are the finance, foreign affairs, and interior ministries, which will be headed by independents acceptable to both sides. The key question then is why Fatah settled for a unity agreement in February that provided it far less gains than previous unity proposals rejected by Abbas.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Mecca

26. Contributions of the Turkish Armed Forces to Middle East Peace Operations

Author:: Selahattin Iban
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The general view held by Middle Eastern nations is that political sensitivities make it impossible for regional or neighboring countries to perform peacekeeping in the area. However, the example set by the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) in the past twelve years points to the fallacy of this view.
Topic:: International Relations, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

27. The Mecca Accord (Part II): Implications for Arabs, Israel, and U.S. Policy

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 02-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Fatah-Hamas unity agreement reached in Mecca last week has powerful implications for all regional players. The most serious challenge it poses is to U.S. diplomacy.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Mecca

28. Is Lebanon Headed toward Another Civil War?

Author:: David Schenker and Andrew Exum
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Violent clashes in Beirut on January 25 between students of rival political parties have overshadowed the promising news that Lebanon received pledges of $7.6 billion at the Paris III donor conference on Lebanons economy. The violence, which was largely along sectarian lines, was the latest in a series of escalating political/religious confrontations. This troubling trend raises the specter that Lebanon may once again be sliding toward civil war.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention and International Relations
Political Geography:: Middle East

29. Lebanon Goes to Paris III: High Stakes in France and Beirut

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 25, Lebanon will participate in Paris III, the third international donor conference for Lebanon convened by French president Jacques Chirac since February 2001. The top agenda items are grants and soft loans for Lebanon and the economic reform plan of Lebanese prime minister Fouad Siniora. For Siniora and his "March 14" ruling coalition, the success of the conference -- i.e., international commitments to provide billions to Lebanon -- is exceedingly important, as the government is coming under increasing pressure from the Hizballah-led opposition. Indeed, this week, the opposition upped the ante in its continuing effort to topple the Siniora government, closing key Lebanese arteries, including the highways into Beirut and the airport road. If Paris III is broadly perceived as "successful," it will strengthen Siniora and demonstrate that the March 14 coalition can govern and advance key Lebanese interests without Hizballah participation in government. Should international donors not prove particularly generous, the momentum will shift toward the opposition.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: Middle East and France

30. Iran Feels the Heat: International Pressure Emboldens Tehran's Domestic Critics

Author:: Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As international pressure on the Iranian government toughens, the Iranian regime is facing more fragmentation at home. In an unprecedented action against a sitting president, 150 of the 290 members of the Iranian Majlis (parliament) signed a letter blaming President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad for raging inflation and high unemployment, and criticizing his travel to Latin America at a time when he has not sent the Majlis a draft budget for the fiscal year that starts March 21. Under Iranian law, this letter constitutes the first step required if the Majlis wants to remove the president from office.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Latin America

31. Annual Post-New Year's Event: America and the Middle East, circa 2007

Author:: Martin Walker and Joe Klein
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President George W. Bush's plan of a troop surge coupled with counterinsurgency tactics comes too late for Iraq. Securing Baghdad is a precondition for establishing a secure Iraq. The success of U.S. counterinsurgency tactics is contingent upon a functional central government. The resources that will be devoted to securing Baghdad could be best employed in Afghanistan. Currently, the Iraqi government is a fig leaf for Shiite militias and it is doubtful that Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's government will wage war on Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

32. Iraq as a Militia War

Author:: Andrew Exum
Publication Date:: 01-2007
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the context of debate surrounding U.S. military strategy in Iraq, Prussian military philosopher Carl von Clausewitz offers this classic directive: it is essential to understand the nature of the war you are fighting. To this end, the U.S. military in Iraq no longer faces a traditional insurgency conflict -- as those the French fought in Algeria or the United States fought in Vietnam -- in which one faction seeks to undermine and supplant the national government. Instead, the strategic landscape of Iraq today bears far more resemblance to the Lebanese civil war of the 1970s and 1980s, in which various sectarian militias battled each other for control of specific parts of the country. The Iraq war has indeed become a militia war.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Vietnam, and Algeria

33. The Golan Heights and Syrian-Israeli Relations: What Does Asad Want?

Author:: Seth Wikas
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The first annual International Media Forum on the Golan Heights, held November 5-7, 2006, in the city of Quneitra on the Syria-Israel border, highlighted Syria's stated desire for the return of the entire Golan. The forum's backdrop was a litany of controversial statements made by Syrian president Bashar al-Asad about his next moves in relation to Israel.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Security
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Syria

34. Prosecuting Terrorists: A Look at the American and Israeli Experiences

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Dvorah Chen
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israel's summer war with Hizballah has again raised legal questions about the imprisonment of terrorists in Israel. From its founding, the state of Israel has been forced to confront belligerent activities by hostile states and organizations seeking to destroy it. The struggle against Palestinian terrorism has taken an enormous toll over the course of the second intifada, during which time more than one thousand Israelis have been killed and thousands more wounded. Enemy combatants are imprisoned in order to prevent them from causing further destruction. Therefore, terrorist detentions play a central role in the struggle to prevent terrorist activities, and the legal issues surrounding these detentions pose crucial concerns for the entire international community. There are two major processes for the prosecution of terrorist detainees in Israel: (1) through the normal civilian criminal track based on penal legislation, and (2) through special administrative measures under the minister of defense.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, and Israel

35. From Beirut to Gaza: Israel's Neighbors in the Aftermath of War

Author:: Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:: 10-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The governments on both of our “hot” fronts, Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority, are on the verge of change, with practical, immediate implications for Israel—and unfortunately, not positive ones. Rather, the storm clouds continue to gather on the strategic horizon.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Government, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

36. On the Record: Robert Gates on the Middle East

Author:: Robert Gates
Publication Date:: 11-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 24, 2004, Gates was interviewed by Bernard Gwertzman of the Council on Foreign Relations: Gwetzmann: “Do you have any predictions as to how Iraq is going to turn out?” Gates: “No. We have the old line in the intelligence business that everything we want to know is divided into two categories: secrets and mysteries.” Gwertzman: “And Iraq is which?” Gates: “Iraq is very much the latter.”
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

37. Reconstructing Lebanon: Short- and Longer-Term Challenges

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Lebanon has secured pledges for assistance roughly equal to its $3.6 billion estimate of what is required to rebuild from the recent war. Though foreign assistance will be an important element in the short-term physical reconstruction, it will do little to help Beirut contend with the longstanding structural maladies afflicting the economy—particularly $40 billion in government debt. Lebanon also faces the challenge of how to reinforce central government authority in the face of Hizballah's efficient reconstruction efforts.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

38. Containing Hizballah's Terrorist Wing

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As part of the international effort to ensure that the cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel can become a sustainable ceasefire, much attention has been paid to blocking arms shipments to Hizballah, as called for in UN Security Council Resolution 1701. But another threat to peace in the region is Hizballah's potent terrorist wing. Arguably its most dangerous offensive weapon, Hizballah's terrorist wing was active throughout this recent conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

39. The Damascus-Hizballah Axis: Bashar al-Asad's Vision of a New Middle East

Author:: Seth Wikas
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 15, Syrian president Bashar al-Asad gave a significant policy speech to the Syrian Journalists Union in which he expressed his support for Hizballah. More importantly, the address sought to redefine Syria's position in the Arab world. Building on Washington's talk of the birth of a new Middle East, Asad described his own vision for a new Middle East, one with an empowered Arab resistance, a weakened Israel, and a renewed regional unity against Western interests.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

40. Syria's Role in the War in Lebanon

Author:: David Schenker and Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recent developments related to the war in Lebanon—a warning from Damascus that Israeli forces in Lebanon should keep away from the Syrian border, the placement of Syrian forces on a heightened state of alert, the explosion of a crude improvised explosive device (IED) on the Syrian side of the Golan, President Bashar al-Asad's bellicose August 1 Army Day speech, Syrian facilitation of Iranian efforts to resupply Hizballah, and Israeli attempts to interdict these supply lines through air strikes along the Lebanon-Syria border—have prompted concerns that the fighting in Lebanon could escalate to involve Syria. Warnings from Damascus that an international stabilization force for Lebanon would be seen as an army of occupation, and therefore a legitimate target of resistance, have likewise raised the possibility that Syria might sponsor or support attacks on such a force, as it sponsored attacks against the Multi-National Force (MNF) in Beirut in 19821984.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

41. Why a Multinational Force is Essential in Lebanon

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Lebanon plunges deeper into ruin and chaos as a result of Hizballah's “gang war” tactics against Israel's expanded military campaign to degrade the power of the Islamist party, Hizballah, Syria, and its allies in Lebanon are devising plans to subvert an international agreement on a multinational force to guard the Israel-Lebanon border. They are also preparing for a political comeback in a postconflict Lebanon by riding the wave of the victory Hizballah is sure to claim whatever the outcome—a supposed triumph that in reality will be at best a Pyrrhic victory.
Topic:: International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

42. "Trust Allah, Not Nasrallah": The Hizballah Crisis Reshapes Lebanese Politics

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 08-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With the ongoing clashes between Israel and Hizballah raging without respite and Lebanon sustaining significant human and material losses, the sociopolitical scene in Beirut is bursting with both centrifugal and centripetal forces. While these forces threaten the country with implosion, they are sparking a national debate on Lebanese national identity that may prevent Lebanon from disintegrating as a sovereign state. While many Western observers see the civilian deaths in Qana as galvanizing Lebanese support for Hizballah, national solidarity against Israeli attacks should not be mistaken for a widespread embrace of Hizballah.
Topic:: International Relations, Religion, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

43. The Potential for Escalation in the Hizballah-Israel Conflict

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The critical question of whether or not the current conflict in Lebanon will escalate to a broader regional war is being answered in two overly simple ways. One such analysis is that this is a “meltdown” with escalating violence and mounting pressures for further escalation. A second, equally simplistic view is that since no one has an interest in escalating to a regional conflict it will not happen. Both of these views do not account for the complex set of dynamics and the real possibility that accident and error can intervene.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

44. An International Stabilization Force for Lebanon: Problems and Prospects

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As diplomacy to halt the violence in Lebanon slowly gathers momentum, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has endorsed the idea of an international “stabilization force” to keep the peace, seconding proposals previously put forward by UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, British prime minister Tony Blair, and European Union foreign policy envoy Javier Solana. Such a force, however, is liable to face major obstacles and incur substantial risks that could jeopardize its prospects for success. For this reason it is essential to consider what past experiences in Lebanon, the Middle East, and elsewhere teach about peacekeeping and peace enforcement operations, the sort of challenges such a force could encounter, and the kind of mandate and capabilities required to meet these challenges.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

45. Hizballah's Global Terror Option

Author:: Christopher Hamilton and Barak Ben-Zur
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a July 17 article in Kayhan, a newspaper sponsored by Iran's supreme leader, editor Hossein Shariatmadari wrote, “The Muslim nations should not let the engagement [with Israel] remain in its limited regional boundaries. The Zionists are scatted in many parts of the world and their identification is not that difficult. . . . Everywhere in the world must be made insecure for the Zionists.” Even without this exhortation from Iran, there is a real possibility that the conflict could expand beyond the borders of Lebanon and Israel. History has shown that Iran and Hizballah together have significant capabilities to conduct violent terrorist attacks anywhere in the world.
Topic:: International Relations and War
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

46. Hamas and Israel: From Isolation to Confrontation

Author:: David Makovsky, Dennis Ross, and Moshe Yaalon
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 10, 2006, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, David Makovsky and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon, a distinguished military fellow at the Institute, is the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff. Mr. Makovsky, senior fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Project on the Middle East Peace Process, is author of the Institute monograph Engagement through Disengagement: Gaza and the Potential for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler distinguished fellow, is a former U.S. Middle East peace envoy and author of The Missing Peace: The Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

47. Reactions in the Middle East to the Israel-Lebanon Crisis

Author:: Rana Shaab, Nicholas Ravella, Nathan Hodson, and Daniel Fink
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The outbreak of hostilities after Hizballah's July 12 raid into Israel, in which it captured two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others, has elicited a variety of responses from government officials and other prominent figures throughout the Middle East. Though it is not surprising to see harsh statements about Israel, it is unusual to see Arab leaders criticizing Hizballah for its role in precipitating the conflict. The usually cautious Saudi authorities implicitly criticized Hizballah for adventurism; is seems that Riyadh may be wary of Iranian influence. The following is a sampling of Middle Eastern reactions, compiled from various regional and international media sources.
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Lebanon

48. Jordan Looks Inward: The Hashemite Kingdom in the Wake of Zarqawi and the Hamas-Israel Clash

Author:: Samer Abu Libdeh
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Even while Israelis and Palestinians are locked in deepening conflict over the kidnapping of a young Israeli soldier and the future of the Hamas government, political life on the East Bank of the Jordan River is increasingly focused on internal Jordanian concerns.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan

49. Hizballah: Learning to Live with Resolution 1559

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 07-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Hizballah has been deployed along the blue line, the internationally accepted border between Lebanon and Israel, since May 2000 when the Israeli army left southern Lebanon. Hizballah's fulltime strength is 500–600 well trained, combat experienced fighters, but in an emergency the organization can also call upon thousands of other fighters with elementary training. Training continues in the eastern Bekaa valley, although at a much reduced rate compared to the 1990s. At present, Hizballah uses Shebaa Farms to justify its military operations and continued weapons possession, a rationale based on the claim that the Shebaa Farms are Lebanese territory occupied by Israel, even as the United Nations considers this territory to be Syrian.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and Lebanon

50. Tracking Hamas's Leadership: Insights into the Organization's Structure and Evolution

Author:: Christopher Hamilton
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Taken together, the kidnapping on Sunday of an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldier and the signing on Tuesday of an agreement among Palestinian factions to create a unity government for the Palestinian Authority (PA) suggest that significant seismic forces may be developing within Hamas that may have a decisive impact both on the organization's solidarity and on the future course of Israeli-Palestinian relations. While the unity agreement itself has little significance beyond internal Palestinian politics—it is a nonstarter for the Israelis and represents a major retreat from previous Palestinian positions—its importance lies in the fact that it highlights the possible emergence of a fissure within the Hamas organization between its internal leaders, headed by Palestinian prime minister Ismail Haniyeh, who experience the brunt both of popular concerns and Israeli reprisals, and its external leaders, chief among them Damascus-based Khaled Mashal, who are free of these constraints and therefore able to insist on more maximalist positions. However, in signing this agreement—apparently without full consultation with, or the approval of, the Damascus contingent—the Hamas leaders in the territories have signaled both their independence and their intention to embark on a more pragmatic path than that preferred by Hamas's more ideological external elements. Indeed, the timing and nature of the attack seems to have been specifically intended to disrupt the effort to agree on a unity government with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, and thereby, the possible emergence of a more moderate Hamas strategy.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

51. Abbas, Hamas, and the Referendum Trap

Author:: Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas's pursuit of a referendum on the Palestinian National Accord has been widely interpreted by commentators and reporters as a power play designed to circumvent the Hamas-led government and force it to implicitly accept Israel's existence. But while the process of conducting a referendum -- the legality of which remains questionable -- would shift power away from the government and the legislature, the actual text of the document, which a group of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails negotiated, more closely resembles the political program of Hamas than that of Abbas. Moreover, Hamas has recovered from its initial surprise at the referendum initiative and has mounted an effective response, first by challenging the legality of a referendum, then by dragging Abbas into negotiations over the substance of the Accord. Despite a possible compromise that may emerge in coming days and shift the composition of the government or modify the language of the Accord, Hamas has used the internal Palestinian debate over a referendum to secure its internal legitimacy and advance many of its governing priorities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

52. Three Legacies: Ataturk, Inonu, and Ozal and the Making of the U.S.-Turkish Relationship

Author:: Eric Edelman
Publication Date:: 06-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Sayin arkadashlar merhaba. Hello, my good friends. It is an honor to be here today to deliver this years Turgut Ozal lecture. I would like to thank The Washington Institute, Rob Satloff, Soner Cagaptay, and in particular, Mark Parris, one of my distinguished predecessors as ambassador to Turkey, for inviting me. This institutions excellent work in promoting U.S.-Turkish relations does not go unnoticed and I am proud to be a part of it. In fact, I would argue that the Institutes work on Turkey is more important now than it has ever been. I would also like to take this opportunity to acknowledge the important efforts of my successor, Ambassador Ross Wilson, who with great dedication and skill works everyday at maintaining our strong relations.
Topic:: International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:: United States, Turkey, and Middle East

53. Understanding the Middle East: A View from inside the Mossad

Author:: Efraim Halevy
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the current global circumstances, the role of intelligence gathering and analysis in policymaking has become increasingly important. As a result, intelligence leaders have ever more influence in the policymaking process. This is particularly the case in Israel, where some of the political leadership's most significant decisions came on the heels of Mossad and Military Intelligence initiatives and assessments.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Jerusalem

54. Funding Alternatives to Hamas

Author:: Ben Fishman
Publication Date:: 05-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 7, the State Department announced its plan for restructuring aid to the Palestinians in response to the formation of a government led by Hamas, which has refused Quartet demands to recognize Israel, cease violence and terror, and accept past diplomatic agreements. In order to target assistance toward the Palestinian people rather than the Hamas leadership, the United States will now provide the vast majority of its aid (some $203 million) for humanitarian needs, including food, health, and education programs primarily administered by United Nations agencies such as the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), and the UN World Food Program. An additional $42 million is allocated for "securing and expanding democracy," in an effort that "protects and promotes moderation and democratic alternatives to Hamas." Assisting the development of such a peaceful and democratic alternative -- as distinct from an immediate overthrow of Hamas -- will require the United States to support programs driven internally by Palestinians that can foster a broad-based political movement. Bolstering a centralized Fatah-like organization run by elites will only lead to further corruption and the continued alienation of the Palestinian public.
Topic:: International Relations, Corruption, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Palestine

55. Quelling Iraq's Sectarian Violence: What the United States Can Do

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The ongoing debate over whether or not Iraq is on the verge or in the midst of a civil war is a distraction from the main challenge the United States now faces in Iraq: how to reduce or contain sectarian (and ethnic) violence that could derail the political process and drag Iraq's neighbors into the conflict. That said, the recent increase in sectarian violence following the attack on Samarra's Askariyya Shrine does not necessarily alter the fundamental character of the conflict: attacks on Shiites have long been an important element of Sunni Arab insurgent operations, although Shiites have only recently begun striking back in a sustained way. The violence does, however, have the potential to spiral out of control should another insurgent attack damage an important Shiite shrine or result in very large loss of life.
Topic:: International Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

56. Lebanese National Dialogue: Avoiding the Hard Questions?

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 22, leaders from across the Lebanese political spectrum completed another round of the ongoing National Dialogue. The talks, which started earlier this month, have touched on some of the more salient topics in Lebanese politics. Conspicuously absent from the agenda, however, has been a discussion of disarming militias, such as Hizballah, a key element of UN Security Council Resolution 1559. The indefinite postponement of this critical issue will make it difficult for the United States to continue to actively support its democratic allies in post-Syria Lebanon.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

57. Palestinian Economic Dependence on Israel

Author:: Elizabeth Young
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the international donor community struggles to determine its stance on aid to the Palestinians under the Hamas government, it is important to remember the extent to which the Palestinian economy is dependent upon Israeli decisions. Last year the international community gave the Palestinians $1.4 billion in aid; Israel has the potential to affect at least that sum through its policies on trade, Palestinian workers in Israel, and the tax revenue it collects.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

58. The Shape of Israel's Election Race

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In a surprise move prior to Israel's March 28 election, Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert unveiled a proposal that Israeli settlers be consolidated into West Bank settlement blocs largely adjacent to the Green Line. A week after the announcement, Israeli public reaction suggests his gamble seems to have paid off. According to a Yediot Ahronot poll released on March 17, Israelis favor Olmert's unilateralist proposal by a margin of 52 percent to 45 percent. Moreover, Olmert's poll standing was not negatively impacted by the proposal, despite the fact that it could mean the removal of an estimated 60,000 settlers from dozens of settlements scattered across the larger part of the West Bank outside Israel's security barrier. (Inside the Israeli security barrier, there are approximately 193,000 settlers, mostly in blocs, in the 8 percent of the West Bank largely adjacent to the pre-1967 boundaries. By comparison, President Clinton's final proposal in 2000 involved Israel keeping 5 percent of the land.) An Olmert security advisor and former Shin Bet head, Avi Dichter, says the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will not be withdrawn from the West Bank. Olmert was able to use his commanding lead to answer critics who say that the new party leader lacks Ariel Sharon's track record and therefore the authority to ask the public to trust his decisions. In the March 17 poll, Olmert's Kadima stood to win 39 seats in the 120-seat Knesset; Labor was polling at 19 seats and Likud, 15 seats. Olmert's standing was undoubtedly assisted by Israel's March 15 operation to seize from a Jericho prison the assassins of Israeli cabinet minister Rehavam Zeevi. Olmert hopes the operation will burnish his security credentials and undercut Netanyahu's argument that he is uniquely tough enough to challenge Hamas. (Olmert needs to be concerned about the 22 percent of Israelis who are undecided—the equivalent of twenty-five Knesset seats.)
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

59. Responding to Hamas's Triumph

Author:: David Makovsky, Patrick Clawson, and Marc Otte
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On March 3, 2006, Marc Otte, Patrick Clawson, and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Otte is the European Union's special representative for the Middle East peace process. Dr. Clawson, The Washington Institute's deputy director for research, is author with Zoe Danon Gedal of the Institute monograph Dollars and Diplomacy: The Impact of U.S. Economic Initiatives on Arab-Israeli Negotiations. Mr. Makovsky is a senior fellow and director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

60. Where to Draw the Line on International Assistance to the Palestinians?

Author:: David Makovsky, Michael Herzog, and Elizabeth Young
Publication Date:: 03-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the immediate aftermath of Hamas's parliamentary victory in late January, the Quartet—the United States, the EU, Russia, and the UN—set clear criteria for funding a Palestinian Authority (PA) under Hamas's leadership. The Quartet said direct funding would be a function of the new government's “commitment to the principles of nonviolence, recognition of Israel, and acceptance of previous agreements and obligations, including the Roadmap.” Indeed, there is no other example of taxpayers subsidizing a government run by an organization that appears on State Department and EU terror lists.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

61. Hamas Visits Ankara: The AKP Shifts Turkey's Role in the Middle East

Author:: Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Khalid Mishal, a Hamas leader currently residing in Damascus, visited Ankara today. Despite fierce debate in the Turkish press and objections from the secular-minded foreign policy elite, Mishal's visit went ahead with backing from Turkish prime minister Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. From the American perspective, the visit is important for three reasons. First, it could potentially hurt Turkey's longstanding role as an honest broker between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Second, it serves as yet another foreign policy breech between Turkey and the West. Third, the visit is a telltale sign of the AKP's policy of “strategic depth” toward the Middle East, a policy that Washington needs to understand given U.S. objectives in Iraq, Syria, and Iran.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

62. The Security Implications of a Hamas-Led Palestinian Authority

Author:: Moshe Yaalon
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 8, 2006, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon served until June 2005 as chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces. The following is a transcript of his remarks. “Hamas's recent victory in the Palestinian parliamentary elections challenges all those actors currently invested in promoting change in the Middle East. These include Israel, Western nations, Arab democrats, and Palestinian moderates. Adding to this challenge is the perception of radical Islamists—Sunni and Shiite alike—that Hamas's victory is a defeat for U.S. policy in the region, a blow to democratization, and a victory for Islamist fundamentalism.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

63. Can al-Qaeda's Lebanese Expansion Be Stopped?

Author:: Emily Hunt
Publication Date:: 02-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Israelis assess the implications of Hamas's victory in January elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council, a new threat may be developing in Lebanon. Al-Qaeda–linked terrorists have been present in Lebanon for a decade, but recent statements by Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi suggest that the dual objectives of destabilizing Arab regimes and targeting Israel proper are becoming top al-Qaeda priorities. Al-Zarqawi–linked terrorists in Lebanon have already engaged in low-level targeting of Israeli and Lebanese interests, yet several obstacles may hinder their ability to launch significant attacks in or from Lebanon. The Lebanese government, although weak, has a clear interest in preventing both internally and externally directed al-Qaeda activity. The dynamic among Hizballah, the Palestinians, and al-Qaeda remains more ambiguous, but early signs suggest potential antagonism among the groups. Together, Israel and the United States may be able to help Lebanon contain this emerging threat.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

64. Turkey: Between the West and the Middle East

Author:: Yigit Alpogan
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 24, 2006, Yigit Alpogan, secretary-general of Turkey's National Security Council, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Alpogan, who assumed his current post in August 2004 as the first civilian head of the Turkish National Security Council, previously served as the Turkish ambassador to Greece and Turkmenistan as well as deputy undersecretary of foreign affairs. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece

65. Hamas's Rise and Israel's Choice

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 23, 2006, Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff addressed the 2006 Herzliya Conference on the Balance of Israel's National Security. Excerpts from Dr. Satloff's remarks follow. “Beware the unintended consequences of sound policies. On June 24, 2002, President Bush announced a major shift in U.S. policy. No longer would fulfillment of diplomatic requirements—that is, acceptance of UN Security Council Resolution 242 or recognizing Israel's right to exist—alone merit the full engagement of the United States in assisting Palestinians as they try to achieve their legitimate rights through negotiations with Israel. From then on, how they handled themselves at home—whether they are corrupt, whether they are democratic, whether they are, as the president said, 'untainted by terrorism'—would all matter.
Topic:: International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, and Middle East

66. America and the Middle East, circa 2006

Author:: James F. Hoge Jr. and Stuart Rothenberg
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Barring any unforeseen developments in the region, there will be very little change in U.S. policy toward the Middle East this year. Terrorism will remain the top priority overall. In addition, the Bush administration will continue to maintain the priorities that have defined American approaches over recent decades, such as preserving energy supplies, containing strife, ensuring Israel's existence, and working with allies such as Turkey. Further, the White House will reiterate its condemnations of the Syrian regime—though it will refrain from more active policies of regime change for fear that a new government would be even worse. However, the issues of democratization, Iraqi development, the Iranian nuclear program, and the Israeli-Palestinian issue will also be high on the agenda in 2006.
Topic:: International Relations and Development
Political Geography:: United States, America, Washington, and Middle East

67. A Tale of Two Countries: Defining Post-Syria Lebanon

Author:: Michael Young
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: When Shiite ministers recently “suspended” their participation in the Lebanese cabinet, though without resigning, it highlighted an increasingly apparent reality in post-Syria Lebanon: Two powerful camps coexist today. One, led by Hizballah, in alliance with the Amal movement, sits atop a Shiite community generally, though not unanimously, supporting their positions. The other reflects a cross-communal parliamentary majority, the cornerstone of which is the Sunni-led Future Movement of Saad Hariri, son of the murdered former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

68. Khaddam's Revelations: Is the Asad Regime Unraveling?

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Abdul Halim Khaddam, who was vice-president of Syria from 1984 to June 2005, gave an explosive interview to the Dubai-based al-Arabia TV on December 30 implicating the Syrian leadership, including President Bashar al-Asad, in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri. Khaddam's action widened irrevocably the crack in Syria's political system.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East

69. Fatah's Prospects in the Legislative Elections

Author:: Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:: 01-2006
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With just over two weeks left before January 25 Palestinian legislative elections, the mainstream Fatah movement remains bitterly divided, with some of its key factions advocating the postponement of elections and others demanding that voting be held as scheduled. Having publicly aired its internal problems over the last weeks rather than developing a clear campaign message, Fatah is unlikely to win more than 40 percent of the seats in the next Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). Even though the question of Israel allowing voting in East Jerusalem now seems resolved, it remains to be seen whether elections will take place. If they do proceed, Fatah is certain to lose its monopoly on the Palestinian Authority and will require a coalition to form the next government.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

70. Yemeni President Saleh Comes to Washington

Author:: Simon Henderson and Khairi Abaza
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The November 10 meeting at the White House between U.S. president George W. Bush and Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh will be the third time the two men have met since the September 11 terror attacks on the United States. Yemen is an oft-forgotten close U.S. ally, arguably as crucial to the success of the war on terror as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, or Egypt. The south Arabian country, with its rugged, desert landscape, remains a sanctuary for al-Qaeda operatives. With seacoasts along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Yemen dominates the Bab el-Mandab shipping chokepoint, the route by which oil from the Persian Gulf reaches the Suez Canal and hence the European market. (A French supertanker was badly damaged in an al-Qaeda attack off the Yemeni coast in 2002.)
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, Washington, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

71. Supreme Leader Khamenei's Responsibility for Iran's Present Situation

Author:: Mohsen Sazegara
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Mohsen Sazegara, recently a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute and now at Yale University, posted on several Persian-language websites (including gooya.com) a long open letter to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hossein Khamenei. Below are translated extracts from that letter.
Topic:: International Relations, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, and Middle East

72. Turkey and Europe's Problem with Radical Islam

Author:: Soner Cagaptay, Düden Yegenoglu, and Ekim Alptekin
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey opened accession talks with the European Union (EU) on October 3. In the aftermath of the March 2004 Madrid bombings, the November 2004 murder of film director Theo van Gogh in Amsterdam, and the July 2005 London bombings, all committed by radical Islamists, some people in Europe wonder whether Islam is compatible with European values and, accordingly, whether letting the predominantly Muslim Turkey join the EU is a good idea. Will Turkey's EU accession compound Europe's problem with radical Islam, or is Turkey's version of Islam a panacea for Europe's Islamist problem?
Topic:: International Relations and Religion
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

73. The New Turkish Economy and EU Accession Talks

Author:: Meral Varis
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Now that negotiations toward full Turkish membership in the European Union (EU) have begun, what are the prospects for the Turkish economy? In particular, could Turkey attract significant global investment and take off economically as happened in Spain, Portugal, and Greece in the 1980s and Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic in the 1990s when those countries negotiated for EU accession?
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, Poland, Hungary, Spain, and Portugal

74. Syria's Response to the Mehlis Report

Author:: Robert Rabil
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The long-awaited report by the international commission investigating the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri was released on October 21. Overseen by UN chief investigator Detlev Mehlis, the report concluded, "Given the infiltration of Lebanese institutions and society by the Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services working in tandem, it would be difficult to envisage a scenario whereby such a complex assassination plot could have been carried out without their knowledge." The dynamics engendered by the report, coupled with the political atmosphere of gloom pervading Syria, confront the Bashar al-Asad regime with a bitter choice: accept international demands or go down the self-destructive path of continuing with its old political mindset and flawed one party rule.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, and Syria

75. A Bedouin on a Camel? Saudi Foreign Policy and the Insurgency in Iraq

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Iraq's interior minister, Bayan Jabr, lashed out at Saudi diplomacy while speaking to journalists in Amman on October 2. Referring to Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, Jabr said Iraq would not be lectured by "some Bedouin riding a camel." Broadening his remarks to the Saudi ruling family, the House of Saud, the Iraqi minister said, "There are regimes that are dictatorships; they have one god, he is the king, he is god of heaven and earth, and he rules as he likes. A whole country is named after a family."
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, and Middle East

76. The Sunni Arab Insurgency: A Spent or Rising Force?

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Warnings by Sunni politicians of even greater violence if Sunni Arab concerns are not addressed in the draft Iraqi constitution raise the question: could the insurgency get worse? The answer can be found by examining the insurgency's demographic dimension.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

77. The Black Sea Basin: A New Axis in Global Maritime Security

Author:: Orhan Babaoglu
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Black Sea Naval Cooperation Task Group (BLACKSEAFOR), a regional maritime security initiative started by Turkey in 2001, was activated August 14-27. With world attention devoted to Iraq and the Middle East, important developments in the nearby Black Sea region involving energy politics, frozen conflicts, and new regional security initiatives have gone mostly unnoticed. The Black Sea is a stable but complex basin with vast economic resources and strategic importance as a medium for energy transportation. Is the Black Sea a bridge or a barrier between United States and Turkey? Does the issue of Black Sea security provide an opportunity to mend deteriorated relations or a new source of friction?
Topic:: International Relations, Security, NATO, and Cold War
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

78. Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq: A Progress Report

Author:: Jeffrey White, Jack Keane, and Francis West
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Daily images of carnage from Iraq and uncertainty over how to measure coalition progress continue to stoke debate in the United States. How does one assess the status of the insurgency? How are the efforts to recruit and train Iraq's security forces proceeding? What are America's options in Iraq?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Vietnam, and Syria

79. Anatolian Eagle Air Warfare Training: A Valuable Turkish Contribution to NATO, the United States, and the World

Author:: Haluk Sahar
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Anatolian Eagle is one of the largest and most complex joint air force exercises in the world, paralleled only by Red Flag, held periodically at Nevada's Nellis Air Force Base, and the annual Maple Flag exercise in Canada. The Turkish Air Force (TUAF) is now preparing for the multinational leg of the next Anatolian Eagle, scheduled to take place September 12-23. Anatolian Eagle has obvious public relations value for Turkey and its air force as hosts of the event. Moreover, as an exercise mimicking realistic aerial war minutes away from the U.S. forces, it also serves as an important component of U.S.-Turkish military cooperation.
Topic:: International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:: United States, Turkey, and Middle East

80. The U.S.-Turkish Relationship beyond Iraq: Common Values, Common Agenda

Author:: R. Nicholas Burns
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 18, 2005, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs R. Nicholas Burns addressed The Washington Institute's Seventh Turgut Ozal Memorial Lecture. Undersecretary Burns's prepared remarks were delivered by Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Daniel Fried. The following are excerpts from the speech followed by a summary of the subsequent question-and-answer session. "Today, we have all gathered to honor Turgut Ozal, a strong leader with a clear vision of Turkey's future. Ozal — who we as Americans are proud to call a close friend — sought tirelessly to advance Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's legacy, his dream of a modern, democratic Turkey anchored in the West....
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

81. The New Lebanon: Democratic Reform and State Sponsorship

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 19, Lebanon's incoming prime minister, Fuad Siniora, announced the formation of a new Lebanese cabinet, a move praised in Washington as another step toward democratic reform. At the same time, the State Department warned that it would not be able to maintain contact with newly appointed Minister of Energy and Water Muhammad Fneish, who is a member of Hizballah. Beyond the fact that U.S. officials are prohibited by law from dealing with members of officially designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations like Hizballah, Fneish's appointment raises the larger question of how to deal with the extensive presence of active terrorist groups in a Lebanon no longer dominated by Syria.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

82. The Three-Way Game: Iran, Iraq, and the United States

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The July 16–18 visit to Tehran by Iraqi prime minister Ibrahim Jafari and ten other members of his council of ministers has been hailed by some as the beginning of a new era in Iran-Iraq relations. In fact, the pattern of near-term relations was set during Iraqi defense minister Saadoun al-Dulaimi's preparatory visit to Iran on July 5–7. At a joint press conference on July 7 with his Iranian counterpart, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the Iraqi official fell victim to the oldest trick in the Iranian diplomatic playbook. Speaking well beyond what had been agreed by the two sides, Shamkhani announced “wide defense cooperation” and alluded to the imminent conclusion of a defense pact between the two countries (as Iran has done in the past with Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia). Al-Dulaimi was likewise forced to clarify the limited nature of the discussions while also taking pains to state, “Iraq will not be a source of insecurity and instability for any of its neighbors. Nobody can use [Iraqi territory] to attack its neighbors.” The message to both Tehran and Washington was clear: the three-way game between the governments of Iran, Iraq, and the United States has begun again. With Iraq caught in the middle, Baghdad intends to play an increasingly autonomous role as the game unfolds.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Oil
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

83. Freezing U.S. Assets of Syrian Officials

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Jamie Chosak
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 11, al-Seyassah, an independent Kuwaiti newspaper, reported that Syrian president Bashar al-Asad froze the assets of his country's minister of interior affairs, Ghazi Kanaan. If so, that is surely a reaction to Kanaan's June 30 designation—along with Chief of Syrian Military Intelligence for Lebanon Rustum Ghazali—by the U.S. Treasury Department as a Specially Designated National (SDN) under Executive Order (EO) 13338. The two were cited for directing “Syria's military and security presence in Lebanon and/or contributing to Syria's support for terrorism.”
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Kuwait, and Syria

84. The Gleneagles G8 Summit: Middle Eastern Issues on the Agenda

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Beginning on July 6, British prime minister Tony Blair will host the G8 summit in Gleneagles, a hotel and golf course in Scotland. Africa and climate change are the two main topics on the agenda, but counterterrorism, proliferation, and political reform in the Middle East are scheduled to be discussed as well. The annual G8 summit has become the sole forum in which the leaders of the seven top industrialized countries (Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States) and Russia meet to discuss and decide on courses of action. Diplomatic grandstanding and expected antiglobalization demonstrations aside, the summit is an opportunity to set the international political and bureaucratic agenda for months ahead.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Oil, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Britain, Africa, Russia, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Middle East, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Scotland

85. Netanyahu's Victory: Major Challenges for the Likud Party

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Former Israeli prime minister and recently resigned finance minister Benjamin Netanyahu won the Likud leadership primary on December 19, beating the foreign minister, Silvan Shalom, by a margin of 45 percent to 33 percent. Netanyahu returns to the leadership of Likud, which he vacated after his loss in the 1999 election. Netanyahu's victory comes a day after Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon suffered what his doctors called a mild stroke; he was released from the hospital within forty-eight hours. At seventy-seven, Sharon already shares the record for the oldest Israeli prime minister; David Ben-Gurion was seventy-seven when he resigned in 1963. Sharon turns seventy-eight in February.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

86. Opening Gaza to the Wider World: The Israeli-Palestinian Agreement on Movement and Access

Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On November 25, Palestinians celebrated the opening of their first self-governed external passage, the Rafah border crossing that separates the Gaza Strip from Egypt. Following months of negotiations, on November 15 Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) reached the Agreement on Movement and Access, governing the flow of people and goods into and from the Gaza Strip. Isreal's disengagement from the whole of Gaza, including the border with Egypt, made an accord on border crossings necessary. The agreement was achieved through extensive mediation by Quartet's special envoy, James Wolfensohn, and at the final stage through the unprecedented involvement of U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice. The agreement is an attempt to balance Israeli security concerns with Palestinian political, humanitarian, and economic concerns.
Topic:: International Relations and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Palestine, and Egypt

87. Political Participation and Palestinian Legislative Elections

Author:: Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the leadup to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas's October 20 visit to Washington, the Bush administration urged the Palestinian Authority (PA) to tighten rules enacted in 1995 and change the law governing upcoming Palestinian legislative elections to make it clear that candidates, even those backed by Hamas or other militant groups, could not incite violence or keep ties with militias. However, the PA seems unlikely to adopt this approach, in part because the administration reportedly backed away from its position. What alternative strategies exist for limiting Hamas's political influence?
Topic:: International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Palestine

88. Abbas's Missed Opportunities in Washington

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas returned to Ramallah from Washington last week having missed a key opportunity to spur President George W. Bush to reengage in the Roadmap. Instead, the October 20 joint press conference at the White House concluded with Bush acknowledging that his presidency may not witness the creation of a Palestinian state by 2008. His administration, Bush said, might merely “lay that foundation so that the process becomes irreversible.” The same administration that two years ago endorsed the Quartet's Roadmap to Israeli-Palestinian peace based upon a detailed schedule of commitments now expresses hesitancy on committing to any “timetable” for the creation of a Palestinian state. Bush administration policy has always had a performance-based rather than a time-based approach, but now it is not putting down any time markers.
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

89. Travel Advisory: Military Personnel and British Courts

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 11, retired Israeli maj. gen. Doron Almog declined to disembark from an arriving Israel El Al airliner at London's Heathrow airport and flew back to Israel, thereby avoiding British police waiting with a warrant for his arrest. The warrant, instigated in part by pro-Palestinian groups, alleged that Almog had committed war crimes while head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Southern Command operating in the Gaza Strip in 2002. The airport incident has serious implications, the full extent of which will only become clear in time, for visitors to Britain from Israel and possibly America (due to U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq). Israelis, Americans, and, indeed, British citizens could be vulnerable when visiting other countries as well. London's role in the Middle East peace process could also be constrained.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United Kingdom, America, Europe, Middle East, London, and Palestine

90. Empowering Mahmoud Abbas after Disengagement

Author:: Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Empowering Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas and fellow moderates at this critical time may be in the interest of everyone who favors a return to peace negotiations, but Abbas himself faces immense challenges to his authority that make him unlikely to be able to implement significant changes in the four months left before Palestinian legislative elections in January. The weakened position Abbas inherited included limited control over security forces, paralyzing rivalries within the Fatah movement that limit any support for difficult decisions, and an increasingly assertive Hamas that constantly flaunts its ability to act independently. None of these sources of Abbas's weakness is likely to change significantly in the coming months. And, despite Abbas's intentions to establish law and order and begin economic revitalization in Gaza as articulated in a speech delivered on September 13, the chaos exhibited along the border at Rafah and in the old Israeli settlements immediately after the Israeli withdrawal demonstrates just how difficult his task will be.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

91. A Wind in Hamas's Sails: Palestinian Militants Gather Post-Disengagement Momentum

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On September 12, the last departing Israeli forces closed the gates of Gaza behind them, followed by a salvo of Palestinian rockets aimed at southern Israel. In the unsettled aftermath of the Israeli disengagement from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank, only one camp seems clearly to know where it is heading -- the militant Palestinian Islamist groups, led by Hamas. These groups now profess their intention to continue their violent campaign in and from the West Bank. Their strategy, using armed and political capabilities, poses a serious challenge to both Palestinian and Israeli leaderships and may undermine prospects of improved Israeli-Palestinian relations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

92. Toward a Quartet Position on Hamas: European Rules on Banning Political Parties

Author:: David Makovsky and Elizabeth Young
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A key issue in the runup to January's Palestinian parliamentary elections is whether the radical Islamist party Hamas will be allowed to participate and under what conditions. Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and foreign minister Silvan Shalom have insisted that the group disarm, disavow terror, and end its call for Israel's destruction before it is permitted to run in elections. Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas has favored an unconditional acceptance of Hamas's electoral participation, believing that it could coopt Hamas within the Palestinian political fold. However, he said in a Washington Post interview published on September 11, 2005, "A political party plus a militia is unacceptable," but he did not elaborate specific plans that would prevent Hamas from participating in elections as both party and militia.
Topic:: International Relations, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

93. Undermining Hamas and Empowering Moderates by Filling the Humanitarian Void

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Jamie Chosak
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Now that Israel has disengaged from the Gaza Strip and four settlements from the northern West Bank, the international community has a clear interest in doing all it can to see that the post-withdrawal security situation remains stable so that the exit from Gaza leads to further steps along the path laid out in the Quartet's Roadmap to Middle East peace. As former World Bank leader James Wolfensohn, now Washington's special envoy for disengagement, lobbies world leaders to offer significant support for Palestinian development projects, a parallel effort is necessary to create new, transparent public and private social-service organizations unaffiliated with Hamas or other groups engaged in terrorism or political violence.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Humanitarian Aid, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

94. Engaging Israel: The Significance of the Istanbul Meeting between Israel and Pakistan

Author:: Simon Henderson and Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The September 1 meeting in the Turkish city of Istanbul between Israeli foreign minister Silvan Shalom and his Pakistani counterpart, Khurshid Kasuri, was historic. There have been no public official contacts between the two nations since Pakistan was founded in 1947 as a home for Muslims in the Indian subcontinent just a few months before Israel, the Jewish national home, achieved statehood in 1948. The meeting represents a major breakthrough in Jerusalem's efforts to overcome diplomatic isolation and also indicates that Turkey is determined to play a more active role than previously thought.
Topic:: International Relations, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

95. Post-Gaza Crises for Religious Zionism in Israel

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israeli disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank settlements has left in its wake three important crises for the religious Zionist movement that spearheaded settlements in Israel. These crises involve the settlers' future relationships with the Israeli public, the Israeli state, and the political secular right. For settlers, these three relationships are now colored by a sense of betrayal, raising the question of whether disengagement will radicalize the ideological settlers.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

96. Sharon, Netanyahu, Disengagement, and Likud Leadership

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: An immediate consequence of Israel's disengagement from Gaza was Benjamin Netanyahu's August 7 resignation as finance minister, making a Likud Party leadership challenge between him and Ariel Sharon virtually inevitable. What will be the impact of such a challenge on Sharon's policy in the postdisengagement period? And how would a Netanyahu challenge affect the chances of a split within the Likud—and perhaps a broader realignment of Israeli politics?
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

97. On the Verge of Gaza Disengagement

Author:: David Makovsky, Dennis Ross, and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On August 4, 2005, Dennis Ross, Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog, and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and former U.S. Middle East peace envoy, has just returned from a month in the region. General Herzog of the Israel Defense Force is a visiting military fellow at The Washington Institute. Formerly the senior military aide to the minister of defense, he was also an Israeli peace negotiator. Mr. Makovsky, senior fellow and the director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute, is author of the Institute monograph Engagement through Disengagement: Gaza and the Potential for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:: International Relations, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

98. Encouraging a Tougher PA Response to the Hamas Challenge

Author:: Michael Herzog
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's July 22-24 visit to the Israeli-Palestinian scene came amid critical domestic challenges to the Palestinian leadership against the backdrop of imminent Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip and parts of the northern West Bank, scheduled to begin August 15. In an unprecedented step, Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas recently demonstrated the will to enforce his policy of nonviolence on Hamas and curb the group's efforts to become an alternative armed authority. Given his precarious vacillation between appeasement and enforcement, the international community should encourage Abbas to continue down the latter path and provide him with practical support toward that end.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

99. Gaza Disengagement: The U.S. Role in Ensuring Success on the Ground

Author:: Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: I have spent the past month in Jerusalem, meeting with Israelis and Palestinians here, in Ramallah, and in Gaza City. In my years of dealing with both sides, I cannot recall a time when emotion in general, and frustration in particular, have so clearly shaped their outlook. Given the death of Yasser Arafat, the emergence of Mahmoud Abbas, and Ariel Sharon's decision to disengage from Gaza, this should be a time of hope and opportunity. Instead, there is less a sense of possibility than of foreboding. It may not yet be too late to use the withdrawal as a platform on which to build a different future. Yet, much of what could have been done to prepare the ground for disengagement has not been done—and that may explain the unease that pervades both sides.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

100. The Future of the Jewish Settler Movement, Post-Disengagement

Author:: Aviezer Ravitsky
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On June 24, 2005, Aviezer Ravitsky, a professor at Hebrew University of Jerusalem and an expert on religious Zionism, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. The impending Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip and four settlements in the northern West Bank threatens the ideological foundations of many settlers. This is particularly true for religious settlers, most of whom view Israeli habitation of the West Bank as the fulfillment of a biblical mandate initiated by the Hebrew patriarchs. The fact that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, a prime architect of the settlement movement during his tenure as housing minister in the late 1970s, unilaterally proposed the disengagement epitomizes what many settlers see as their abandonment by the political establishment. They fear that Israel will eventually withdraw from most, if not all, of the West Bank. That prospect threatens to undermine the cause of the national-religious camp in Israel, which has championed the settlement movement above all else since Israel assumed control over the territories in 1967.
Topic:: International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS