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Begin New Search Topic Security Political Geography Middle East Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Publication Year within 25 Years

201. The Role of Broadcast Media in Influence Operations in Iraq

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Successfully shaping Iraqi public perceptions is vitally important, particularly since other well-known means of influencing the public -- creating stability and reestablishing water, power, and other public welfare services -- are taking longer than expected. Yet, the coalition has arguably been slower to shape the Iraqi media environment than either indigenous political actors or Iranian state-sponsored media networks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

202. Polling in Iran: Surprising Questions

Author:
Nazgol Ashouri
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The difficulties facing Iranians who want to express their opinions freely in print are legion. In an atmosphere where journalists and pollsters are often detained without trial, it is easy to assume that pollsters do not ask important questions and that respondents do not give serious answers. Yet, some very interesting polls are in fact conducted in Iran.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

203. Special Policy Forum Report: An Arab Liberal Looks at the Post-Saddam Middle East

Author:
Hazem Saghie
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 8, 2003, Hazem Saghie addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Saghie has been the editor of the weekly supplement of the London-based daily al-Hayat for the past fifteen years and served fourteen years in Beirut for the Lebanon daily al-Safir. He is currently a visiting fellow at the Institute and editor of The Predicament of the Individual in the Middle East (Saqi Books, 2000). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, London, Lebanon, Beirut, and Czech Republic

204. Hizballah on the Defensive

Author:
Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In almost all of his speeches, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah has spoken about the pride that his organization brought to Arabs by forcing Israel to withdraw from Lebanon in May 2000. Now, however, the coalition forces have trampled on this pride: the Iraqi regime collapsed, and Baghdad fell without offering much resistance. Speaking on April 24, Nasrallah warned that "the most dangerous challenge now facing Arabs is the sense of hopelessness and stupor that has followed in the wake of Iraqi occupation." Indeed, on a variety of fronts, Hizballah is suddenly facing a new regional landscape that is inimical to its interests.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Baghdad, Arabia, and Lebanon

205. Hizballah's Message of Hate and Powell's Levant Visit

Author:
Avi Jorisch
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Secretary of State Colin Powell prepares to visit Syria and Lebanon on May 3, his agenda will most likely address the war on terrorism. The most active support for terrorism from both Damascus and Beirut is for Hizballah. To understand what the group's aims and ambitions are, few sources are better than al-Manar, Hizballah's Lebanese television station. The channel broadcasts messages calling for death to America and suicide bombings against American forces in Iraq.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, and Beirut

206. Patterns of Terrorism 2002: Terror, Counterterror, and State Sponsorship

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Today, the State Department releases the 2002 edition of Patterns of Global Terrorism, its congressionally mandated annual accounting of international terrorism. The report chronicles a year marked by both devastating terrorist attacks and remarkable progress targeting al-Qaeda in the war on terror. However, against the backdrop of the increasingly successful international campaign to prevent such attacks by targeting terrorist groups, what stands out is the lack of a similar effort in 2002 to target state sponsors -- a problem that continues today.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

207. Special Policy Forum Report: Impact of Success in Iraq on Gulf States

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The end of Saddam Husayn's regime offers several key benefits with regard to U.S. interests. World oil supplies will increase as Iraq -- which has not been a major oil exporter since the beginning of the 1980-1988 war with Iran -- raises its oil production capacity to its full potential, which may amount to 5-6 million barrels per day. Cheap oil will boost the global economy, reduce Arab control of the oil market, and allow the United States to become less dependent on Saudi Arabia and better positioned to demand reforms from Middle Eastern regimes. In addition, postwar Iraq will no longer pose a weapons-of-mass-destruction threat to the region. The end of Saddam's regime will also reduce Russian and French influence in the region.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

208. The Emergence of Resistance in Iraq

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Whatever the long-term prospects for a stable and democratic Iraq, the potential exists for the development of resistance to that goal. This potential is rooted in both historical factors (e.g., Iraq's political culture; Iraqi distrust of the United States; enduring images of colonialism) and immediate circumstances (e.g., the collapse of Saddam Husayn's regime and the attendant destruction of governing systems and infrastructure; the legacy of regime crimes). Indeed, the latter circumstances have created precursors for resistance to coalition forces, the transitional government, and the eventual Iraqi government.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

209. U.S. Policy and Iraqi Oil: The Challenges Ahead

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) -- the oil producers' cartel of which Iraq is a founding member -- meets in Vienna to discuss production cuts intended to maintain the current, relatively high price of oil. The United States is not expected to send a representative for Iraq, although one or more among the plethora of political groups in the liberated country may send a would-be representative, unlikely to be seated. While ignoring the meeting, Washington still needs to make clear how it will reconstruct the Iraqi oil industry and utilize the nation's huge oil reserves, second in size only to those of Saudi Arabia.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Vienna

210. Winning the Peace in the Middle East: A Bipartisan Blueprint for Postwar U.S. Policy

Author:
William Perry, Newt Gingrich, R. James Woolsey, Lawrence Eagleburger, Alexander Haig, Robert Kerrey, and Fred Thompson
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
President George W. Bush declared that Iraq would be disarmed -- peacefully if possible, through force if necessary. While resort to arms was surely not the preferred option, Saddam Husayn's determination to preserve his weapons of mass destruction (WMD) ensured that the United States and its allies would be left with no choice but to act militarily. The path to war has not been precipitous. If the United States is now to avoid the age-old fear of winning the war but losing the peace, the administration's postwar priorities must reflect an understanding of the challenges it faces and the choices it must make.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

211. The Future Shape of Military Operations in Support of Postwar Stabilization in Iraq

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although military operations have passed the "tipping point" in Iraq, U.S. Central Command spokesmen continue to stress that their primary focus remains the completion of high-intensity operations against remaining pockets of resistance. Moreover, in contrast to previous statements that advocated allowing looting to burn itself out, recent statements suggest that the coalition will quickly reconstitute the Iraqi police force, actively preventing looting and imposing curfews on its own in the meantime. These are positive steps because accomplishing the mission -- that is, neutralizing or apprehending leadership elements, uncovering weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and facilitating the humanitarian and economic recovery of Iraq -- depends on closer engagement with the civilian population and robust policing activity. The coalition cannot afford to choose between fighting the high-intensity war or engaging in low-intensity civil affairs; both endeavors must be undertaken simultaneously, which will be a strain on both the limited numbers of coalition forces and relations with Iraqi civilians.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

212. Foreign Irregulars in Iraq: The Next Jihad?

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In light of the recent dramatic events in Baghdad, U.S. policymakers are eyeing the next phase of the war. U.S. forces will almost certainly encounter increased guerrilla fighting. Saddam Husayn's vice president, Taha Yassin Ramadan, recently stated that more than 6,000 Arab volunteer fighters are now in Iraq. With increasing numbers of such volunteers vowing to fight, could Iraq become the epicenter for the next global jihad?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

213. Special Policy Forum Report: Combating the Ideology of Radical Islam

Author:
Graham E. Fuller and Daniel Pipes
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 3, 2003, Daniel Pipes and Graham Fuller addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum and an adjunct scholar of the Institute. His most recent book is Militant Islam Reaches America (W.W. Norton, 2002). Mr. Fuller is former vice-chair of the National Intelligence Council at the Central Intelligence Agency and senior political scientist at RAND. His latest book is The Future of Political Islam (Palgrave, 2003). The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

214. Special Policy Forum Report: A Terrorist Front in Iraq?

Author:
Matthew Levitt, Avi Jorisch, and Roger Cressey
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 4, 2003, Matthew Levitt, Roger Cressey, and Avi Jorisch addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Levitt is the Institute's senior fellow in terrorism studies and author of its 2002 monograph Targeting Terror: U.S. Policy toward Middle Eastern State Sponsors and Terrorist Organizations, Post-September 11. Mr. Cressey is president of Good Harbor Consulting and former director of transnational threats at the National Security Council. Mr. Jorisch is a Soref fellow at the Institute, where he is writing a monograph on Hizballah and its television station, al-Manar. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

215. The End of Saddam's Regime

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
"Bloody thou art, bloody will be thy end" -- like Shakespeare's quintessential villain Richard III, Saddam Husayn is being toppled by a combination of forces he called into existence through his own evil actions. Unlike Richard, Saddam's final act will lack heroic qualities. Clearly, the regime's disintegration is accelerating; all that is left is for the final act to be played out.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

216. Special Policy Forum Report: A View from Tehran: War and the Challenges in the Post-Saddam Midle East

Author:
Ray Takeyh and Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iran is facing its most acute crisis since the 1979 revolution. Over the past six years, political institutions have played a key role in opening the path to reform. Yet, the success of President Muhammad Khatami's efforts to involve the Iranian people in electoral processes and political institutions has led to a conservative backlash. A coalition of hardliners has been successfully implementing a strategy for retaining power, namely, fostering popular apathy by controlling public discourse, imprisoning reformers, and negating the deliberations of elected institutions. This strategy reached its apex during local and council elections in February in which only 30 percent of eligible voters went to the polls.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Tehran, and Arabia

217. Special Policy Forum Report: Arabs View the War -- Images, Attitudes, and Opinions

Author:
Hafez al-Mirazi, Jonathan Schanzer, and Mouafac Harb
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
War remains a horrifying event and al-Jazeera will cover it realistically. Images carried by the network are graphic, but do not discriminate in showing American and Iraqi casualties. Similarly, al-Jazeera has covered both the unprecedented airpower brought to bear by the allied forces and the Iraqi government's own version of "shock and awe" in airing videotapes of American prisoners of war; failure to do so would challenge the station's credibility.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Middle East, and Arabia

218. Trying to Walk a Fine Line? Hizballah's Stakes in the Current War

Author:
Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Amidst the war in Iraq, the Lebanese group Hizballah has decided not to open up what could have been a "second front" by attacking Israel. This decision should not be mistaken for passivity, however. With the world paying scant attention, Hizballah is seeking to shape Arab public opinion against the United States. It is important to understand the underlying forces that drive Hizballah's campaign against the United States so as to better comprehend the organization's stakes in the Iraq war and its aftermath.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

219. Ansar Al-Islam: Postmortem or Prelude to More Attacks?

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Ansar al-Islam, an al-Qaeda affiliate in northern Iraq, was rocked by U.S. missile and air strikes over the weekend, concluding an eight-day campaign against the organization. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) stated that, with help from more than 100 U.S. Special Forces operatives, they have "completely overrun" Ansar's stronghold. The PUK reportedly killed twenty-four Ansar fighters on Monday alone. Yet, the group may not have been defeated completely. Although its enclave was literally flattened, Ansar al-Islam is threatening new attacks, and will likely live to fight another day.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Russia, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

220. Fighting the War to Win the Peace in a Post-Saddam Iraq

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt and Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the coalition prepares for the decisive phase of the war against Saddam Husayn's regime, it is crucial that combat operations set the conditions for achieving U.S. war aims and -- just as important -- winning the peace afterward. The principal war aims are: 1) eliminating Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD); 2) achieving regime change; and 3) setting the conditions for the emergence of a stable, broad-based post-Saddam government. Moreover, prospects for winning the peace will be greatly enhanced if the coalition moves quickly to improve postwar living conditions for the largest possible number of Iraqis; to establish a modicum of stability in the country; and to create conditions wherein coalition forces are viewed not as occupiers, but as partners for building a new Iraq. How should the coalition fight the war in order to achieve these objectives?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

221. Bush and Blair: Tensions in the Relationship

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, speaking at the annual policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell, after mentioning the war in Iraq, declared, "no challenge, no opportunity, is more important, more pressing, than the quest to put an end to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians." Such wording is similar to sentiments expressed in recent weeks by British prime minister Tony Blair. However, there are indications that Washington's view about Israeli-Palestinian issues sharply differs from that of London.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Europe, Middle East, Israel, London, Palestine, and Arabia

222. Basing Restrictions Shape Concept and Conduct of War

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With Saudi Arabian, Turkish, and Jordanian host-nation restrictions limiting coalition ground and air operations, the United States has begun to develop a range of Iraqi airfields as forward operating bases for combat aircraft. This is ironic considering that successive U.S. governments spent billions of dollars to develop an unparalleled basing environment to support U.S. power projection in the Gulf. Recent decisions by Saudi Arabia and Turkey -- key U.S. allies -- have arguably prevented Washington from waging a shorter and less costly war in terms of both blood and treasure. Yet, the United States has benefited greatly from its policy of diversifying basing assets in the smaller Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, recognizing that Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman are dependable allies and that Iraq may one day replace Saudi Arabia as a key airbase provider.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

223. War in Iraq: A Preliminary Assessment

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Saddam Husayn's regime is under relentless attack, and its days are numbered. Exactly when or how the end will come is unclear but not in doubt. After a week of major combat, it is reasonable to assess the progress of this war: accomplishments by both sides, surprising -- and not so surprising -- elements, emerging patterns or trends, and battlefield implications.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

224. Turkmens, The Soft Underbelly of the War in Northern Iraq

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With the northern front in Iraq being officially launched today, coalition forces may soon move toward the city of Kirkuk, which they began bombing on March 21. Kirkuk, claimed by Kurds as the prospective capital of a Kurdish region in postwar Iraq, is the bastion of the Turkmens, a Turkish-speaking community that shares close historical, social, and cultural ties with the Anatolian Turks in neighboring Turkey. Their fortunes will be closely scrutinized in Turkey during and after Operation Iraqi Freedom. If Turks feel that the Turkmen community is being discriminated against or threatened, they could force Ankara to take action, perhaps undermining what remains of U.S.-Turkish cooperation in Iraq.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

225. Special Policy Forum Report: Whither U.S.-Turkish Relations? A Turkish Perspective

Author:
Ilter Turkmen and Emre Gonensay
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 17, 2003, Ambassador Ilter Turkmen and Emre Gonensay addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Turkmen has served as the Turkish minister of foreign affairs (1980-1983), as the undersecretary-general of the United Nations, and as the commissioner-general of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). Professor Gonensay served as the Turkish minister of foreign affairs in 1996.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

226. Iraqi Strategy and the Battle for Baghdad

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Over the past two days, U.S. forces have battled elements of the four Republican Guard (RG) divisions that form the outer ring of Baghdad's defenses, initiating what may be the decisive phase of the coalition's invasion of Iraq. The possibility of urban combat in Baghdad is a daunting one, entailing risks not only for coalition forces, but for the Iraqi regime as well. Although the battle for Baghdad is likely to be the decisive phase of the current campaign, it is unlikely to be the final stage of this conflict. Rather, it will mark the transition to a new phase of what is likely to become a protracted struggle, one that could last as long as U.S. troops remain in Iraq.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

227. Starting Over: U.S.-Turkish Relations in the Post-Iraq War Era

Author:
Mark Parris
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As demonstrated by President George W. Bush's request to Congress yesterday to provide Turkey with $1 billion in aid -- money that can be leveraged into $8 billion in loan guarantees -- Turkey will remain a key country for Washington. But the Iraq war is a watershed in U.S.-Turkish relations, and the partnership will inevitably involve a new agenda based on postwar realities.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

228. Iraq Fights Its War 'Outside-In'

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iraqi forces have been countering the U.S.-led Operation Iraqi Freedom with a form of "outside-in" strategy, defending their country from the periphery to the center. Although the coalition is winning every significant engagement and has penetrated to the heart of the country, Saddam Husayn's regime is not giving ground easily, and the costs of bringing it down will rise. The regime is demonstrating once again that it is a dynamic opponent, capable of understanding what it faces and coming up with surprises.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

229. The Long View of No-Fly and No-Augmentation Zones

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Coalition ground forces entered Iraq on the first day of Operation Iraqi Freedom, in contrast to Operation Desert Storm in 1991, when the ground assault followed forty-three days of air strikes involving an average of 2,500 sorties per day. This difference was due in large part to the fact that much of the work of preparing the battlefield had been completed well before the current operation began. Specifically, coalition air forces have long engaged in large-scale activities in Iraq's no-fly and no-augmentation zones, flying as many as 1,000 sorties per day -- substantially more than the 700 sorties flown during the first day of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

230. The 'Arab Street' and the War: Are Regimes in Control?

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
An apparently spontaneous protest stopped traffic in Cairo's Tahrir Square Thursday. Protesting the allied attack on Iraq, some of the participants turned violent, overturning police blockades. In Damascus, riot police fired tear gas on hundreds of protesters who threw rocks and tried to rush the U.S. embassy. Several smaller demonstrations were also reported in Lebanon, Jordan, and the Gaza Strip. Today, more protests occurred in Cairo, Jerusalem, Beirut, Damascus, Amman, and Manama. In Yemen, a shootout was reported between police and antiwar protesters marching on the U.S. embassy in Sanaa. These incidents support the idea of a dangerous "Arab street," reflecting a disaffected Arab public incensed at U.S. policy. What is the impact of Arab antiwar opinion on regional stability?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

231. Special Policy Forum Report: U.S. Policy in Post-Saddam Iraq: Lessons from the British Experience

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt, Judith Yaphe, and Eric Mathewson
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
It is day one of the Iraqi war. The Iraqi nation is in chaos. In the mosques, fatwas (religious decrees) are issued against the invading Westerners. The Kurds revolt. At home, antiwar protesters are demonstrating in the streets: is the objective of this war regional stability, political change, or oil?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

232. The Complexities of a Military Coup Against Saddam

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
There has been much speculation that under certain circumstances -- either just before a war or in the early stages of a coalition operation -- some elements of the Iraqi military would move against Saddam Husayn and his regime. A coup against Saddam would in fact be a highly complex event with uncertain benefits for the coalition. Whether or not such an action were to begin before or after the onset of war, specific requirements would have to be met and serious obstacles overcome in order to achieve a successful end result. The history of failed coups against Saddam suggests just how uncertain the prospects would be for such a result.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

233. The State Department's 'No Dominoes' Report and Prospects for Democratization in a Post-Saddam Middle East

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
According to a classified report drafted by the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) and leaked to the Los Angeles Times on March 14, overthrowing Saddam Husayn will not lead to a wave of successful democratic revolutions against Middle Eastern autocracies. Numerous press accounts describe the report -- titled "Iraq, the Middle East, and Change: No Dominoes" -- as "pouring scorn" on Bush administration policy. In fact, the INR report meshes with administration policy, which is to seek political liberalization of existing regimes first, avoiding the radicalism of "overnight democracy" schemes.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

234. Infrastructure Targeting and Postwar Iraq

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Using new operational concepts in concert with rapidly maturing strike technologies, the U.S. military will attempt to seamlessly dovetail the destructive process of warfare with the reconstructive effort of nation building in any future air operations against Iraq. Lessons learned from air campaigns conducted in Iraq during the 1990s have laid the foundation for a more finessed approach to infrastructure targeting.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

235. Promoting Saudi Civil Society: What role for the United States?

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last week the Bush administration decided to reject the recommendation of an independent federal agency to designate Saudi Arabia as a "country of particular concern" under the 1998 International Religious Freedom Act. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom had heard evidence that the Saudi religious police raided the homes of foreign workers who practiced Christianity and held them in squalid, overcrowded prisons. Washington's dilemma lies in dealing with such evidence without upsetting Riyadh at a time when the United States is trying to secure optimal Saudi cooperation on military action against Iraq. The administration's reluctance is at odds with President George W. Bush's National Security Strategy announced in September 2002, which defined "a single, sustainable model for national success [in the world]: freedom, democracy, and free enterprise." It also obscures an opportunity to bolster emerging trends in Saudi Arabia that hint at potential political change.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

236. Iraq's Nascent Nuclear Doctrine: Insights from a Captured Document

Author:
Norman Cigar
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During Operation Desert Storm, U.S. forces captured several million Iraqi military documents. Among these was one titled "The Operational Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction; Volume 2; Part 2; Foundations for the Use of Nuclear Weapons in War." The manual was published in July 1988 by the Ministry of Defense and bears the approving signature of then-chief of staff Lt. Gen. Nizar al-Khazraji. As such, it represents official Iraqi thinking on the topic, providing the most detailed description of how Baghdad might use nuclear weapons if it were to acquire them. The existence of the manual indicates that the Iraqi military was thinking ahead to a time when Iraq would have nuclear weapons, and that it was preparing to integrate such weapons into its arsenal and its overall military doctrine
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

237. Special Policy Forum Report: Fighting With or Without Turkey? Lessons and Implications

Author:
Gordon Rudd and Gerald Thompson
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
It is unclear clear whether the Turkish parliament will re-vote or approve the deployment of U.S. troops in Turkey in preparation for an attack on Iraq. Turkish military cooperation -- or its absence -- may either facilitate or, respectively, complicate an American military operation. Even if the Turkish parliament were to approve the move, potential fault lines could challenge a Turkish-American partnership in the event of war. In this environment, Operations Provide Comfort (OPC) I and II of the early 1990s -- when Turkey, the United States, and other NATO allies collaborated closely in northern Iraq to establish a safe haven for Kurds -- may prove instructive.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

238. Iran's Municipal Elections: A Turning Point for the Reform Movement?

Author:
Ray Takeyh
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 28, 2003, elections were held across Iran for positions on city and village councils, local political bodies that were revived in 1999. Whereas the 1999 council elections resulted in impressive gains by reformers, last Friday's electoral results demonstrated the resurgence of the right wing. Capitalizing on low voter turnout and mass alienation from the political process, the conservatives swept elections in nearly all major Iranian cities. Indeed, the elections marked the lowest turnout in twenty-four years and the first time that the reform movement has been defeated at the polls since its emergence in the mid-1990s. Beyond the issue of largely symbolic local councils, the elections reflect the changing dynamics of Iran's political landscape.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

239. What Kind of Defense Might Iraq Mount?

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
If the United States and the "coalition of the willing" go to war, the result will be a comprehensive defeat of the Iraqi regime and its military and security forces. What is not so clear is how smoothly the military campaign will proceed. Many commentators seem to assume that any serious problems would emerge only after the war was over. Yet, could the Iraqis mount enough defense to cause problems during the war itself? How might they defend themselves, and why might they have some success?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

240. Special Policy Forum Report: The Shi'is and the Future of Iraq

Author:
Yitzhak Nakash
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The prospect of American military action in Iraq has raised concerns that dismantling the Ba'ath regime will weaken the state and spur the defection of its Shi'i majority under the influence of Iran. Yet, much of the pessimism surrounding this assessment obscures the historical role that the Shi'i community has played in supporting the Iraqi state, not to mention the vital interest it has in preserving the country's territorial integrity. If war in Iraq leads to a more representative government that is willing to address Shi'i political aspirations, the likely result would be stability and the establishment of a more moderate religious leadership quite different from that seen in Iran.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

241. The U.S. Indictment of Palestinian Islamic Jihad Militants: The Iranian Connection

Author:
Ely Karmon
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 20, 2003, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the indictment of eight leading members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). The indictment provides a wealth of detail about the close connection between PIJ and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Topic:
Security, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

242. An Accident on the Road to U.S.-Turkish Cooperation in Iraq: Implications for Turkey

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In a dramatic session yesterday, the Turkish parliament convened to consider a motion sent by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, which had requested that a large U.S. force be permitted to use Turkish soil as a staging ground for a possible campaign in Iraq. The legislature refused to authorize the motion, however, blocking the creation of a northern front in the looming war. Of the 533 deputies in session, 264 voted for the motion, 250 voted against it, and 19 abstained, bringing the motion only three votes shy of the majority required by the constitution. AKP assurances that only 30 to 40 of its delegates would object to the motion crashed to a halt over the course of the session, with 99 of the party's deputies voting nay. Although the democratic will of the Turkish parliament should be respected, the fact remains that the AKP government failed to pass its agenda through the legislature. Some analysts argue that this spells trouble for both Turkey and AKP, with others speculating that U.S.-Turkish relations are now at a historical threshold.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

243. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey's Stakes in Iraq

Author:
Soner Cagaptay and Mark Parris
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Turkey's parliament will soon vote on whether to allow U.S. forces to use Turkish soil as a staging ground for a possible war with Iraq. Since Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz's trip to Ankara in early December 2002, Turkey and the United States have engaged in a protracted dialogue about Ankara's stance toward potential U.S. military action. Why has Turkey been hesitant to support Washington's plans, and how might such vacillation affect the U.S.-Turkish strategic alliance in the future?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

244. Complicity in Iraq: How Deep?

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As war with Iraq looms closer, postwar questions are receiving increasing attention. Senior defense officials have been addressing such issues frequently, and the White House held a press briefing yesterday on "Humanitarian Reconstruction" in Iraq. One of these issues concerns individuals who have been complicit in the crimes of Saddam Husayn's regime. According to the Washington Post, the United States intends to conduct a "de-Baathification" program in Iraq similar in some ways to the "de-Nazification" program conducted in Germany in the wake of World War II. Although the details of this program are still to be worked out, the Post indicated that complicity in "human rights and weapons abuses" would be key criteria in determining which Iraqi officials would be permitted to keep their jobs.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Germany

245. Lebanese Military Deployment to the South: Understanding Syria's Defensive Tactics

Author:
Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In recent weeks, Syria has begun to alter its military tactics in Lebanon as a direct consequence of U.S. policy toward Iraq. Even without U.S. forces firing a shot against Saddam Husayn, leaders throughout the Middle East have already begun to position themselves for an eventual U.S.-led victory and the reverberations to follow.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

246. Iraq's Al-Samoud: A Missile with Great Possibilities

Author:
Richard Speier
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A dispute is rapidly growing between UN inspectors and Baghdad concerning Iraq's stockpile of al-Samoud missiles. The UN is expected to order the destruction of these missiles today. According to Hans Blix, executive chairman of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission, the fact that these missiles are capable of attaining a range 22 percent greater than that allowed under UN restrictions is a "prima facie" case for their proscription. Yet, Iraqi deputy prime minister Tariq Aziz has said, "There is no serious violation," and it is unclear whether Baghdad would obey a destruction order. Understanding the significance of the al-Samoud requires a closer look at the missile's developmental history, technical capabilities, and strategic purpose.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

247. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran -- Democratic Evolution or Revolution?

Author:
Ladan Boroumand
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
For many years, Western democracies have been pessimistic about the possibility of Iran becoming a secular democracy. Thus, Western policy toward Iran has long been characterized by a series of hesitant, inconsistent, and ad hoc decisions aimed at countering Iranian-sponsored terrorism, coupled with a relative lack of concern about the tyrannical nature of the Iranian regime. This unfounded pessimism is predicated on a profound misreading of the Islamic Republic as a traditional religious government rather than a revolutionary regime.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

248. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq and the Middle East -- A View from Cairo

Author:
Osama el-Baz
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
U.S.-Egyptian relations always have been a critical aspect of American involvement in the Middle East. Although Washington and Cairo have disagreed on certain issues, they have nevertheless maintained a significant partnership. As regional tensions mount amid the possibility of war with Iraq and continued violence on the Israeli-Palestinian front, it is important to take a fresh look at this partnership. Recently, the Egyptian government has conveyed its concerns to the United States on two major issues: the potential for war in Iraq and Washington's role in attaining Arab-Israeli peace.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Cairo

249. Placing Iraq and Zarqawi in the Terror Web

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Following Secretary of State Colin Powell's February 6 address to the United Nations Security Council, some questioned his description of the "sinister nexus between Iraq and the al-Qaeda terrorist network." In fact, the relationship between Baghdad and terrorism mirrors the way in which today's international terrorist groups function: not as tightly structured hierarchies, but rather as shadowy networks that, when necessary, strike ad hoc tactical alliances bridging religious and ideological schisms. Osama bin Laden's recent call on Muslims to come to Iraq's defense, even as he derided the "infidel" regime in Baghdad, is a case in point.
Topic:
Security, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

250. Special Policy Forum Report: Jordan's Economic Upturn

Author:
Bassem Awadallah
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Jordan has always been regarded as a buffer state, wedged between turmoil to its east in Iraq and to its west in Israel and the West Bank. While those neighbors have faced turbulence in recent years, Jordan has enjoyed three years of substantial economic growth. Indeed, Jordan provides a positive example of what reform can accomplish in the Arab world.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Jordan

251. Up Next: Al-Jazeera in English

Author:
Merissa Khurma
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Planning to target the English-speaking market for the first time in its history, the popular twenty-four-hour Arabic television news network al-Jazeera is working to launch a new English-language website sometime this spring. Upon its launch, the site will reach a new and diverse audience beyond the borders of the Arabic-speaking world. The Christian Science Monitor has even reported that this might be a first step toward the creation of an English-language television channel designed to broadcast controversial news programming in the United States "by satellite and cable."
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

252. Iran's Nuclear Program: Gathering Dust or Gaining Steam?

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the United States looks to disarm Iraq and to defuse or defer a nuclear crisis with North Korea, another nuclear crisis -- with Iran -- looms on the horizon. U.S. policymakers could face critical decisions this year regarding Iran's nuclear program as the Bushehr reactor approaches completion, as Iran's efforts to produce fissile material progress, and, most alarming, as North Korea appears poised to become a significant producer -- and perhaps supplier -- of fissile material.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, and Arabia

253. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq Crisis After the Blix Report -- Diplomatic and Military Options

Author:
Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, David Kay, and Philip Gordon
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 27, Hans Blix, director of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), delivered a straightforward report to the Security Council regarding Iraqi compliance with arms resolutions. Twelve years after taking up the obligation to disarm under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 687, Baghdad still does not genuinely believe that it needs to disarm. Hence, asserting that inspections will work if given time is rather naive. Many in Europe have made this very argument, claiming that the Blix report is just the beginning of a long-term process. Yet, the mission of the inspectors under UNSCR 1441 (passed in November 2002) is to confirm that Iraq has made the decision to disarm and to verify that disarmament has in fact taken place; the Blix report shows that neither of these criteria has been met.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

254. Impact of an Iraq Confrontation on Gulf States: Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics

Author:
Shafeeq Ghabra
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Regime change in Baghdad could do more than make Iraq a positive force in the Middle East instead of a source of trouble; it could also give a strong boost to liberalizing trends throughout the Middle East. Therefore, a war to topple Saddam Husayn's regime would create both opportunities and dangers for the region.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

255. Why are the Turks Hesitating on Iraq?

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 25, Secretary of State Colin Powell met Turkish prime minister Abdullah Gul and the chair of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Tayyip Erdogan, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Powell's meeting -- which followed a January 19 visit to Turkey by General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a December 6 visit by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz -- was aimed at persuading Ankara to allow American troops entry into Turkey in order to prepare a northern front against Iraq. After nearly two months of negotiations, the Turkish government still appears undecided on this issue. Why are the Turks hesitant to cooperate with U.S. military plans, and how can Washington overcome Ankara's indecision? Recent developments in Turkey may help answer both of these questions.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Switzerland

256. Reforming the Arab Stand: A Saudi Initiative on Iraq and the Wider Arab World

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last week, the Saudi government published what it described as a "Charter to Reform the Arab Stand," a document intended for endorsement at the next summit of Arab leaders, due to be held in Bahrain in March. Addressed to Arab kings and presidents, the charter calls for more internal reforms and "categorically reject[s] any illegal external aggression against any Arab state."
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Reform
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Bahrain

257. Easy on the Stick: Why the United States Should Deconflict

Author:
Max Abrahms
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, hundreds of U.S. soldiers will participate in Juniper Cobra, a joint exercise with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to test the interoperability of U.S. Patriot and Israeli Arrow antiballistic missile systems. Such bilateral cooperation, coupled with reports that the Bush administration is considering providing Israel an additional $4 billion in military assistance, suggests that Washington is relying mainly on carrots to discourage an Israeli military response in the event of an Iraqi attack. These moves may explain Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's recent declaration, "We never had such cooperation in everything as we have with the current administration." Yet, precisely what form would this "cooperation" take if Iraq used weapons of mass destruction against Israel or otherwise inflicted mass casualties? Would Washington attempt to shape Israel's retaliatory options as it did during Operation Desert Storm?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

258. Special Policy Forum Report: The Bush Administration's Busy Year in the Middle East -- A Preview of 2003

Author:
Robert Satloff, Dennis Ross, E.J. Dionne, and Fred Barnes
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Dilemmas for U.S. Middle East policy will arise in the immediate post-Saddam aftermath. Foremost will be America's preoccupation with stabilizing Iraq and transforming its new government into a democracy. Vague at present is whether U.S.-led forces will focus on existing institutions (e.g., the Iraqi military) or build new ones to achieve these goals. Such decisions will affect the degree and nature of Iraq's transformation, and the new regime's composition could be significantly different if the United States were to depend on a reformed Iraqi military to promote stability. Moreover, Iraqi transformation corresponds directly to a region-wide transformation, because increased efforts to transform Iraq with a broad-based, representative government will send signals of political reform to Iraq's neighbors. U.S. policy must stand ready to assist other Middle Eastern regimes in their transition to more responsible governments that offer their people hope and the prospect for change.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

259. Special Policy Forum Report: Hizballah Fundraising in the American Heartland

Author:
Kenneth Bell
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In 1996, an off-duty police officer working as a security guard at a cigarette wholesaler in North Carolina noticed young men entering the building with grocery bags full of cash. The men would queue up in the cashier's line with 299 cartons of cigarettes each, while one of them stood at the register and paid cash as the others came through. Next, they would load the cigarettes into minivans and head toward Michigan. At the time, it was against the law to transport more than 300 cartons of cigarettes into another state unless they were marked with the tax stamp of that state. Yet, the smugglers in question took advantage of the fact that neither North Carolina nor Michigan stamped cigarettes to show tax paid. Given the large disparity between North Carolina's cigarette tax (50 cents per carton) and Michigan's ($7.50 per carton), each minivan load had the potential to generate $13,000 worth of profit; indeed, at the height of the operation, three to four minivans were running to Michigan each week.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, Arabia, and North Carolina

260. Ansar Al-Islam: Iraq's Al-Qaeda Connection

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Ansar al-Islam, an al-Qaeda affiliate active in Iraqi Kurdistan since September 2001, is a prototype of America's enemies in the "war on terror." The group serves as a testament to the global spread of al-Qaeda affiliates, achieved through exploitation of weak central authorities and a utilitarian willingness to work with seemingly differing ideologies for a common cause. Lengthy reports on Ansar have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times, and Kurdish leaders have given Washington a plethora of intelligence on the group. Nevertheless, Ansar has yet to appear on official U.S. terrorism lists. Meanwhile, political complexities would make military action against the group difficult, at best. Hence, this small force of 650 fighters is a textbook example of the ongoing challenges posed by the war on terror.
Topic:
Security, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, New York, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

261. Banning in Hizballah Activity in Canada

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On December 11, 2002, the Canadian government banned Hizballah, labeling it a terrorist organization. Strangely, some in Canada are having second thoughts about this measure, likely under the assumption that Hizballah is not a terrorist group but a social and political organization engaged in armed struggle against Israel. Yet, evidence of Hizballah's international activity as a terrorist group of global reach is overwhelming.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Canada, and Arabia

262. Criminal Enterprise in the Political Economy of Middle Eastern Terrorism

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
At least five terrorist suspects who entered the United States illegally from Canada during the Christmas holidays are now the subjects of an international manhunt. The suspects' international travel was apparently facilitated by Pakistani criminal elements engaged in the production of false documents, including forged visas and passports. The nexus between criminal and terrorist activity is not new. Indeed, international terrorism is facilitated and financed by an array of states, groups, fronts, individuals, businesses, banks, criminal enterprises, and nominally humanitarian organizations. Since the attacks of September 11, experts and decisionmakers have focused much attention on charitable and humanitarian organizations, as well as official and unofficial banking systems in the network of terrorist financing. The political economy of terrorism, however, relies just as heavily on legitimate businesses and, increasingly, criminal activity.
Topic:
Security, Political Economy, and Religion
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Taliban, Arab Countries, Syria, and North America

263. Missiles and Diplomacy: The Middle East's Dangerous Mix

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The temporary seizure by the Spanish navy last week of a ship carrying Scud missiles from North Korea to Yemen was a reminder of the extent of missile proliferation in the Middle East. Similarly, Yemen's insistence on receiving the missiles, despite U.S. pressure, is a reminder of how much priority Middle Eastern states place on missile arsenals.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Korea, and Yemen

264. Iran's Nuclear Activities: What Might the IAEA Learn?

Author:
Chen Zak
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Satellite photos published last week showed two sites in Iran that might house a civilian energy program and/or a nuclear weapons program. To determine exactly what purpose these sites serve would require an on-site inspection. Yet, inspections performed by international regulatory agencies are bound by certain limitations. What are the chances that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the organization responsible for verifying compliance to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), will detect clandestine nuclear activities in these two sites or elsewhere in Iran?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

265. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq's WMD Declaration – How Important? How to Respond?

Author:
David Kay
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On December 6, 2002, David Kay addressed the Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. David Kay is a senior fellow at the Potomac Institute. He previously served as the UN's chief nuclear weapons inspector in Iraq, where he led teams that uncovered the scope and extent of Iraq's nuclear program. He has also served as corporate vice president of Science Applications International Corporation. UN Security Council Resolution 1441 required Iraq to submit a full and complete declaration of all weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs and associated delivery systems by December 8. Given the stakes, and the fact that Iraq's previous declarations have been incomplete and misleading, the international community remains concerned, and the United States wary, of the Iraqi declaration.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

266. Fatah-Hamas Relations: Rapprochement or Ready to Rumble?

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer and Gal Luft
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Parallel to the Palestinian armed struggle against Israel is a power struggle between Hamas and Fatah. Years of tensions have culminated in Gaza street clashes between the two organizations in recent weeks. An Egyptian-sponsored summit designed to achieve rapprochement between the two groups sputtered in Cairo last month, but talks are scheduled to resume on December 22. Against the backdrop of a floundering economy, weak public security, and a disintegrating central authority, Fatah's attempts to rein in Hamas are crucial if the Palestinian Authority (PA) is to remain the ruling institution in the territories.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

267. Powell on Democracy in the Muslim World: Assessing the Latest Exposition of U.S. Policy

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
U.S. policy on promoting democracy in Muslim-majority countries took two steps forward and one step back last week with Secretary of State Colin Powell's major address unveiling the new Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI). On the positive side was the simple fact that democratization merited such cabinet-level focus, along with the details of MEPI itself – a promising set of small-scale, big-bang-for-the-buck, incubator-style projects targeted at critical groups (women, youths, educators) that deserve attention and support. On the negative side were a series of political messages within the speech – both explicit and implicit – suggesting that the active promotion of democratic change in Muslim countries, especially U.S. allies in the Arab world, may not be such a priority after all.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

268. Special Policy Forum Report: Middle Eastern Studies – What Went Wrong?

Author:
Martin Kramer and Lisa Anderson
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 26, 2002, Martin Kramer and Lisa Anderson addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Martin Kramer is the Institute's Wexler-Fromer fellow and author of its 2001 monograph Ivory Towers on Sand: The Failure of Middle Eastern Studies in America. Lisa Anderson is dean of international affairs at Columbia University and president of the Middle East Studies Association (MESA). The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security, Education, and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Washington, Middle East, and Colombia

269. Special Policy Forum Report: The War on Terror in the Shadow of the Iraq Crisis

Author:
Bruce Hoffman, Matthew Levitt, and Daniel Benjamin
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On December 4, 2002, Bruce Hoffman, Daniel Benjamin, and Matthew Levitt addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Hoffman is vice president of external relations at RAND and author of Inside Terrorism (Columbia University Press, 1998). Benjamin is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, former director of transnational threats at the National Security Council, and coauthor of The Age of Sacred Terror (Random House, 2002). Levitt is a senior fellow in terrorism studies at the Institute and author of Targeting Terror: U.S. Policy Toward Middle Eastern State Sponsors and Terrorist Organizations, Post-September 11 (The Washington Institute, 2002).
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Colombia

270. Promoting Democracy in the Muslim World: Assessing the Latest Exposition of U.S. Policy

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In a thoughtful and measured address on December 4, State Department Policy Planning Director Richard Haass enunciated a new Bush administration policy on building "greater democracy" in the "Muslim world." Though it skirted several of the toughest policy issues (e.g., whether and how to promote democracy in inhospitable terrain like Saudi Arabia), this important speech nonetheless broke substantial new ground. Especially welcome was the healthy mix of realism and idealism, with arguments for pursuing democratization in Muslim countries leavened with the recognition that "we must above all obey the Hippocratic oath and first do no harm."
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

271. Turkey and the European Union at a Crossroads: America's Role

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
According to the Financial Times, France and Germany will propose to the December 12-13 European Union (EU) summit that negotiations regarding Turkey's accession to the EU begin in July 2005, providing Ankara achieves further progress in democratic consolidation and human rights. If indeed Turkey is offered a conditional date for EU accession at the Copenhagen summit, this would represent a significant, yet incomplete, step. Turkey needs a direct date from the EU to begin negotiations for joining the union.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, France, and Germany

272. Saudi Financial Counterterrorism Measures (Part II): Smokescreen or Substance?

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last week, Adel al-Jubeir, foreign policy advisor to Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, presided over a Washington press conference and the release of a report, "Initiatives and Actions Taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the Financial Area to Combat Terrorism." The press conference marked the first time that Saudi Arabia has publicly committed to formal cooperation with international bodies in the fight against terrorist financing and money laundering. Yet, the event also included a number of disturbing statements.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

273. Saudi Financial Counterterrorism Measures (Part I): The Impact in the Kingdom

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Measures being taken by Saudi Arabia to stop terrorist financing have been welcomed by top U.S. officials. But the main test for the new rules announced on December 3 will be in Saudi Arabia itself, where zakat (giving to Islamic charities) is a religious duty and where measures that please Washington are increasingly regarded as objectionable. As often happens in the kingdom, the theory behind the new rules may well differ from how they are actually implemented.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

274. A Tale of Two Qatars

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Central Command of the U.S. military reports that the biennial "Internal Look" exercise is slated to begin Monday at the as-Sayliyah base in Qatar. The operation is designed to test U.S. military reactions to various threats in the Middle East.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

275. Keeping Al-Qaeda out of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author:
Benjamin Orbach
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Initial suspicions, select intelligence reports, and growing evidence have indicated that al-Qaeda played a role in Thursday's attacks on an Israeli-owned hotel and airliner in Mombasa, Kenya. If this evidence proves accurate, the attacks signal a shift in al-Qaeda's choice of targets and demonstrate a new danger to immediate U.S. interests in the Middle East. After almost a year of silence, Osama bin Laden (or someone speaking in his name) has resurfaced with a revised political agenda meant to mobilize the Arab and Muslim worlds against the United States. Through two recent communications – a November 12 statement and a less publicized "Letter to the American People" distributed on the internet and translated by the British Observer on November 24 – al-Qaeda has made the Palestinian issue the new focal point of its allegations against the United States.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

276. The New Cabinet in Turkey: Who is Who?

Author:
Ayca Ariyoruk
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 28, the newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) government will present its twenty-five cabinet members to the Turkish Parliament for a vote of confidence. With eleven fewer members than the outgoing cabinet, the new cabinet represents AKP's commitment to smaller government. In addition to six names from the Islamist Welfare Party (RP), which was banned in 1998, the cabinet includes eleven new figures, who rose in politics with AKP. There are also six deputies formerly associated with the centrist Motherland Party (ANAP), one deputy each from center right True Path Party (DYP) and Nationalist Action Party (MHP), as well as a female member, Tourism Minister Guldal Aksit. Some analysts view this diversity as proof of AKP's desire to form a government that represents the party's voters, ranging from Islamists to moderate liberals.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

277. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey Has Been Successful As the Leader of the International Force in Afghanistan

Author:
Hilmi Akin Zorlu
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The creation of ISAF was authorized by UN Security Council Resolution 1386 in December 2001. The United Kingdom served as the first lead nation until Turkey took over command on June 20, 2002; the Turkish mandate was granted by Resolution 1413, which extended ISAF's authorization until December 20, 2002.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Turkey, and Middle East

278. Special Policy Forum Report: Envisioning a Post-Saddam Iraqi Military

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt and Kenneth Pollack
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Retraining and reorganizing the Iraqi military and eliminating weapons of mass destruction (WMD) will be vital tasks in the wake of any U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Yet, political change is a prerequisite for military change, and neglecting the former could pose disastrous consequences for the latter. Specifically, the United States should assist in the creation of an apolitical, professional Iraqi military in concert with a new pluralist, federal, civilian-led Iraqi government with indigenous roots. Ultimately, these efforts would help to stabilize Iraq both internally and vis-a-vis its neighbors.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

279. Jordan's War Worries: Saddamistan, Palestinians, and Islamism in the Hashemite Kingdom

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last week's Jordanian government raid on the southern city of Maan was likely a tactic designed to insulate the kingdom from the possible repercussions of a U.S.-led war in Iraq. Indeed, the incident in Maan was a microcosm of larger Jordanian problems stemming from pro-Iraq, Palestinian, and Islamist opposition elements. Should war erupt, Jordan will almost certainly face challenges from these groups. It might also have to fend off a flood of Iraqi or Palestinian refugees, economic meltdown, or even military attack.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

280. Special Policy Forum Report: Toward Renewed Weapons Inspections in Iraq?

Author:
Rolf Ekeus
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1441, adopted after weeks of diplomatic aerobics, authorized renewed weapons inspections in Iraq and outlined a timetable for the inspections process, with mandatory deadlines for Iraqi compliance. UNSCR 1441's popularity is remarkable: the United States, Russia, France, and Syria all like it, and even Iraq seems somewhat amenable to its terms. This popularity may stem from the possibility that each of these countries has a different understanding of the resolution's implications. If so, the disarmament effort may eventually reach a fork in the road, with two possible paths forward.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

281. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran – Reformist Blues, Economic Woes

Author:
Afshin Molavi
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iran has been experiencing nationwide student demonstrations this week, touched off by a hardline court's recent decision to sentence Tehran professor Hashem Aghajari to death for advocating reform of the Shi'i clergy. Although Aghajari's message was well within the mainstream of traditional Shi'a thought, it presented a challenge to the hardline clerics, who insist on a far-reaching revision of Shi'a that includes unquestioning obedience to ruling clergy. The death sentence was meant to send a message to other midranking academics within the reformist movement. Yet, the hardliners' grave miscalculation about the reaction of the Iranian street has led to protests in Tehran, Tabriz, and other Iranian cities.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and World Bank
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

282. Challenges for the Justice and Development Party Government in Turkey

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Turkish parliament will meet tomorrow for its first session since the elections of November 3, in which a party with an Islamist pedigree – the conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) – secured a majority, winning 363 of 550 seats (the social-democratic Republican People's Party [CHP] is the only other party in parliament, with 178 seats; independents won the remaining 9 seats). Over the next few days, AKP leader Tayyip Erdogan is expected to meet with President Necdet Sezer, who has the power to appoint the next prime minister. For the first time since 1954, Turkey has a two-party parliament, in which AKP will rule. Will this be a successful experiment? What are some of the challenges facing this government?
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

283. Ein al-Hilweh: Lebanese Tinder Box

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last week's bombing of a coffee shop and car-bombing attack against a Fatah figure in Ein al-Hilweh, a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, are the latest developments in a wave of recent violence in the camp. Al-Sharq al-Awsat has reported no less than nineteen bombings in Ein al-Hilweh since the end of September 2002. Asbat al-Ansar (League of partisans) – a predominantly Palestinian terrorist group based in the camp, with established links to al-Qaeda – is seen as the culprit behind this violence. In an apparent move to ignite heightened Arab-Israeli tensions, the group has destabilized the camp and surrounding areas. Mounting tensions in this long-neglected and impoverished camp could undermine Lebanese stability, aggravate its refugee crisis, and enfeeble America's efforts in the "war on terror."
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

284. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey Goes to the Polls–A Post-Mortem

Author:
Soner Cagaptay, Mark Parris, and Bulent Ali Riza
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 3, Turkey went to polls, and a party with an Islamist pedigree – the Justice and Development Party (AKP) – won a clear majority with 34 percent of the vote and 363 of the 550 seats in the parliament. The social-democratic Republican People's Party (CHP) was the only other party to win parliamentary representation, garnering 19 percent of the vote and 178 seats (the remaining 9 seats went to independent candidates). All three parties in the outgoing coalition government failed to meet the 10-percent threshold for participating in the legislature, as did the other opposition parties. With 363 seats, AKP is only 5 seats short of the two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitution. Still, the party has enough ministers of parliament to form the next government on its own, putting an end to fifteen years of coalition governments in Turkey. This could bear positive results: Turkey has performed rather poorly under coalition governments (e.g., during the 1990s), but rather well under majority governments (e.g., during the Turgut Ozal years of the 1980s).
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

285. Special Policy Forum Report: Sadat's Peace Legacy and Hopes for Arab Liberalism

Author:
Ali Salem
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During those periods when modern Egypt was occupied by foreign powers and governed by regimes subservient to those powers, many Egyptians found themselves attracted to extremist ideas and organizations. Beginning in the 1920s, all sorts of secret revolutionary and extremist organizations began to expand throughout the country. Whether secular or not, all of these organizations descended from the same forebear: extremism. In fact, even the late President Gamal Abdel Nasser himself had once been a member of the Muslim Brotherhood and had sworn to obey its leaders.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

286. Combating Terrorist Financing, Despite the Saudis

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The annual conference of the Saudi World Assembly of Muslim Youth (WAMY) concludes today in Riyadh. Although it claims to be a charitable organization espousing moderate Islam, WAMY is actually one of many such organizations that, while closely linked to the Saudi government and royal family (e.g., WAMY's president is Sheikh Saleh al-Sheikh, the Saudi minister of Islamic affairs), also have documented links to international terrorism. Others include the al-Haramain Islamic Foundation, the Muslim World League, and the Benevolence International Foundation.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

287. Upcoming Turkish Elections: Likely Winners and Implications for Foreign Policy

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 3, the Turks will go to the polls to elect their new government. The elections could usher in a major realignment of the Turkish political landscape, perhaps bringing a party with Islamist pedigree – the Justice and Development Party (AKP) – to power. Should Washington worry about the foreign policy orientation of a new Turkish administration and its willingness to support a military campaign against Iraq?
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

288. Untangling the Terror Web: Al-Qaeda is Not the Only Element

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On Thursday, October 24, the Federal Bureau of Investigation issued a new terrorist threat alert (this time warning of attacks on transportation systems), highlighting once more why attention has been focused on al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups since September 11, 2001. A year on, however, other Middle Eastern terrorist groups and state sponsors of terrorism still receive inconsistent attention despite a sharp rise in their activity. In fact, militant Islamist groups from al-Qaeda to Hamas interact and support one another in an international matrix of logistical, financial, and sometimes operational terrorist activity. Inattention to any one part of the web of militant Islamist terror undermines the effectiveness of measures taken against other parts of that web.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, America, Middle East, and Arab Countries

289. Behind the French Tanker Bombing: Yemen's Ongoing Problems with Islamist Terrorism

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Since September 2001, Yemen has worked hard to shed its image as a hotbed of Islamist terrorism. That image, however, was reinforced when London's al-Sharq al-Awsat Arabic daily reported that the Islamic Army of Aden (IAA, or Aden-Abyan Islamic Army), an al-Qaeda affiliate, claimed responsibility for an explosion that crippled a French tanker on October 6 in the Yemeni harbor of Mina' al-Dabba. Moreover, a recent letter allegedly written by Osama bin Laden praises the "bold heroic jihad operations . . . against the crusader's oil tanker." The attack, which killed one crewman, underscores Yemen's importance as an area of concern in the U.S. government's "war on terror."
Topic:
Security, Religion, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, London, and Arab Countries

290. Gamal Mubarak: Successor Story in Egypt?

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
British foreign minister Jack Straw met for an hour last week with Gamal Mubarak, the youngest son of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak. According to a British official cited in al-Qanat, an Arabic online daily, Straw met Gamal because he "is a very important person who certainly enjoys great influence." The meeting was significant because it took place less than a month after President Mubarak appointed Gamal to a high-level post in the National Democratic Party (NDP), Egypt's governing political institution. Despite repeated, emphatic, and official assertions to the contrary, all indications point to Gamal being groomed to succeed his father.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

291. Special Policy Forum Report: The Old Middle East's Triumph: Roots of Current Crises

Author:
Barry Rubin
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This question is usually answered in one of two ways. The "just around the corner" view, often favored by Western government officials and the media, argues that the region's conflicts and lack of significant progress could be rectified quickly if only the proper policies and detailed solutions were proposed. In contrast, the "victim" view, often favored in academia and in the Arab world, argues that the area's problems result primarily from external aggression and oppression. The irony is that those styling themselves progressive and pro-Arab in the West actually do great damage to the lives of Arabs in the Middle East, in part by embracing reactionary dictatorships.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

292. Special Report: The Future of Iraq Policy

Author:
Zalmay Khalilzad
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
I want to give you the administration's perspective on where we are and what our vision is for Iraq. As far as the current situation is concerned, we are of the view that Saddam Husayn's regime is determined to retain, expand, and again use weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and that the regime is ready to employ such weapons not only at home, but also abroad. The administration is now determined to disarm Iraq one way or another. No decision for use of force has been made, and we have no desire for war with Iraq. War is not inevitable, but action is. We are working with Congress to secure an effective resolution that allows the president to consider all possible options for dealing with the threat that Saddam Husayn poses. Similarly, we are working with the UN to secure an effective resolution that will end Saddam's defiance of Security Council resolutions and disarm the regime. We believe that Saddam is in material breach of his commitments to the UN. We believe that he threatens regional and global stability by supporting terrorism as well as by holding his country hostage and using its resources to build WMD and the missiles to deliver them. In order to avoid the use of force, Saddam must take the necessary actions – not words, but actions – to comply with all Security Council resolutions. Our position is that this threat will be dealt with one way or another, and in short order.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

293. Algeria's GSPC and America's 'War on Terror'

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last week, intensified Islamist violence prompted Algerian president Abdelaziz Bouteflika to launch his military's largest counteroffensive against radical Islamic elements in five years. The target of this ongoing operation is the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), a breakaway faction of the Armed Islamic Group (GIA). GSPC deserves special attention in America's "war on terror" for its extensive ties to al-Qaeda and its devastating effect on Algeria.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, Algeria, and Arab Countries

294. Enhancing the Turkish-American Alliance: The Campaign for Iraq and Other Possibilities

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones was in Ankara Monday to discuss foreign policy issues including Iraq with her Turkish counterparts. Interestingly, Iraq's vice premier Tariq Aziz visited Ankara yesterday for the same purpose. These trips come at a crucial time as Washington prepares for a confrontation with Saddam Husayn. While prepared to stand with its close NATO ally the United States, Turkey remains uneasy about several issues.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

295. Shaping a New UN Draft Resolution on Iraq

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The United States and Britain are consulting with the other three permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia, France, and China) before introducing a new draft resolution on Iraq. Much attention has been given to whether the resolution will explicitly authorize the use of force. At least as important will be whether the resolution reverses the long, slow erosion of Iraq's UN-mandated obligations. For all their seemingly tough language, recent Security Council resolutions on Iraq have been ambiguous at best about the issues on which Saddam Husayn has been allowed to cheat in the past.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

296. November Elections in Turkey: Assessing the Ban on Justice and Development Party Leader Tayyip Erdogan

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the United States considers a possible military campaign in Iraq, Turkey is preoccupied with its upcoming elections. Although a party with roots in Islamism will be a major contender in the November 3 elections, it is unlikely that Turkey's approach to the Iraq issue will change much, regardless of which party wins. That said, continuing political uncertainty at home could preoccupy Turkish leaders, reducing Turkey's contribution to solving the Iraq problem.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

297. Special Policy Forum Report: Battling for the 'Hearts and Minds' of Middle Easterners, Post-September 11: A Year-End Assessment

Author:
Martin Kramer and Mouafac Harb
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Public diplomacy in the Middle Eastern context is not a new problem. Every non-Muslim state that has projected its power into the Middle East has had to win over the "hearts and minds" of the Muslim population under its control. Muslim Middle Easterners have always viewed the projection of non-Muslim power into the region with suspicion. Nevertheless, America does not have to reinvent the public diplomacy wheel. The United States should learn from the history of the European experience in the Middle East and from its own successful public diplomacy efforts in the Cold War era.
Topic:
Security, Cold War, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, America, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

298. Special Policy Forum Report: U.S.-Turkish Interests: Convergence and Divergence

Author:
Seyfi Tashan and Heath Lowry
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The U.S.-Turkish security relationship is becoming increasingly important to the stability of the Middle East. The two countries have long enjoyed a friendship based on mutual economic and military interests. Many perceive this to be an ideal relationship between the West and the Islamic world. Americans certainly have an interest in encouraging Muslim countries to develop more democratic societies. Yet, the secular structure of Muslim Turkey may not necessarily be the right model for the entire Muslim world. Any externally imposed model is a recipe for failure; individual countries must possess structures of their own that will allow them to develop secular institutions.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries

299. Syrian Sponsorship of Global Terrorism: The Need for Accountability

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With its longstanding support for terrorism, Syria poses an exceptional challenge to U.S. antiterror policy. On September 20, 2001, President George W. Bush declared that "from this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime." This declaration implicitly offered state sponsors a virtual amnesty for previous actions if they would cease sponsoring terror, an offer that Syria has thus far rejected. In June 2002, the president directly called on Syria to "choose the right side in the war on terror by closing terrorist camps and expelling terrorist organizations."
Topic:
Security, Religion, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

300. Special Policy Forum Report: How to Build a New Iraq after Saddam

Author:
Ellen Laipson and Rend Rahim Francke
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Judging whether or not regime change in Iraq is desirable depends in part on forecasting what is likely to occur afterward. The international community cannot expect to determine the success or failure of regime change in the few months after it is initiated; this is the responsibility of the Iraqis themselves. By intervening, the international community would be entitled to set some terms regarding the basic principles of a post-Saddam government, but the details of such a government – in the social, political, and economic realms – must be meaningful and credible to Iraqis.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries