Content Type: Policy Brief / Publishing Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy / Political Geography: Israel

201. Political Troubles between Turkey and Israel? Implications of Booming Bilateral Trade for the Two Countries and the Middle East

Author:: Pemra Hazbay
Publication Date:: 05-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Following Israel's recent raid in Rafah, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Israel's actions as "state terrorism" while Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul hinted that strains had emerged in the Turkish-Israeli relationship. In general, Turkey's governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) has lately adopted an alarmingly critical attitude toward Israel. Will Turkey seek to alter its ties with Israel? From an economic point of view, such a development would seem highly unlikely; Turkey ranks thirteenth on Israel's list of trading partners, while Israel ranks ninth among Turkey's trading partners. Yet, the question remains: do the deep economic ties between Turkey and Israel (which also share close political and military relations) provide a reason for optimism that economic initiatives can help improve political relations elsewhere in the region?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

202. Learning from Past Experience: Sinai to Gaza

Author:: Ben Thein
Publication Date:: 05-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Amid anticipation that Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon will soon get his Gaza withdrawal plan back on track, it is important to examine the only other instance of Israeli settlement evacuation—namely, Israel's withdrawal from Sinai in the wake of the 1979 peace treaty with Egypt. How was evacuation handled at that time? Where did the settlers go? What were their options? Moreover, in light of the Sinai withdrawal, what role, if any, might the international community play in a Gaza withdrawal? What legal factors will the Israeli government face in its efforts to move settlers from their homes?
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, and Egypt

203. A Roadmap for Revived Palestinian Reform?

Author:: Nabil Amr
Publication Date:: 05-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 13, 2004, Nabil Amr addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Amr, an elected member of the Palestinian Legislative Council, served in previous Palestinian Authority cabinets as minister of information and minister for parliamentary affairs. A former member of the Palestinian delegation to peace talks with Israel, he is currently a visiting fellow at the Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Norway, Palestine, and Arabia

204. Security, Peace, and Israel's Strategy of Disengagement

Author:: Giora Eiland
Publication Date:: 05-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On May 7, 2004, Maj. Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland of the Israel Defense Forces addressed The Washington Institute's Nineteenth Annual Soref Symposium. General Eiland is Israel's national security advisor. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

205. Hamas Ceasefire Proposal: Peace or Pause?

Author:: Jeff Cary
Publication Date:: 03-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Has the radical Palestinian Islamist organization Hamas adopted a new, more moderate view on peace with Israel? In recent months, elite news organizations -- from the Economist to National Public Radio -- have highlighted interviews by Hamas leaders such as founder Shaykh Ahmed Yassin suggesting a willingness on the part of the organization to negotiate a "long-term truce" with Israel. On December 1, 2003, Yassin declared that Hamas was "ready to reach or to go with this enemy [Israel] into a long-term . . . truce. But the enemy . . . must pull out from all the Palestinian territories and . . . remove all shapes and kinds of occupation."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

206. Terror At the Hajj

Author:: Anna Robinowitz
Publication Date:: 03-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Among the two million Muslims participating in this year's Hajj in Mecca were a relatively small number of Palestinians and Israeli Arabs. While the vast majority of these pilgrims devoted all of their time in Mecca to religious purposes, others participated in meetings with terrorist operatives as well. Indeed, Hamas, Hizballah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) have all attempted to recruit future terrorists -- particularly from the coveted Israeli Arab pool -- during the Hajj and lesser pilgrimages to Mecca (or 'umrah). For example, over the past two-and-a-half years, Israeli security forces have arrested two Hizballah terrorists recruited during the Hajj and seven other terrorists recruited while making 'umrah. The fact that terrorist groups of any sort are operating at the Hajj has dangerous implications for the United States. Indeed, it would be naive to assume that al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations targeting U.S. interests are not using Mecca as a convenient and secure location for their own meetings, recruitment, and fundraising.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Mecca

207. Special Policy Forum Report: Will Israel Withdraw From Gaza? A Labor Perspective

Author:: Matan Vilnai
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 11, 2004, Maj. Gen. (ret.) Matan Vilnai addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. General Vilnai is former deputy chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). From 1989 to 1994, he served as head of the IDF Southern Command, with responsibility for deploying Israeli forces out of Gaza in accordance with the 1994 Gaza-Jericho accord. As a leading member of the Labor Party, he has also served as a senior cabinet minister and member of the Knesset since 1999. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Arab Countries

208. Special Policy Forum Report: Prospects of Israeli Disengagement-- A View From the Opposition

Author:: Shimon Peres
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 23, 2004, Shimon Peres addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Current chairman of Israel's Labor Party, Mr. Peres previously served as that country's prime minister, foreign minister, and defense minister, as well as in numerous other positions during a career that has spanned six decades. For his contributions to Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, he received the 1994 Nobel Peace Prize along with the late Yitzhak Rabin and Yasir Arafat. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

209. Is All Quiet on Israel's Northern Front?

Author:: Zohar Palti
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: For much of the upcoming presidential election season, the United States will no doubt be preoccupied with domestic affairs on the one hand, and the postwar transition in Iraq on the other. Although Washington undoubtedly hopes for a quiet year in the Middle East, reality might bring less desirable results. In the Arab-Israeli arena, the most significant threat to regional stability (beyond Palestinian terrorism) is the Syria-Hizballah-Iran triangle. Hizballah and Syria appear to be reverting to their traditional pattern of ratcheting up terrorist activity whenever they feel they are being ignored. Unless an effort of some sort is made to halt such escalation, Israel's northern front will become the site of a broader conflict in which neither Israel nor the United States wants to become enmeshed at the moment.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Syria

210. Assessing Sharon's Gaza Settlement Evacuation Proposal

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Less than a year ago, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon rejected the idea of a unilateral pullback from Gaza, telling Labor Party leader Amram Mitzna that isolated settlements such as Netzarim were equal to Tel Aviv in his eyes. Last week, however, Sharon -- a leading architect of Israel's settlement movement -- declared his intention to authorize plans for a unilateral evacuation of at least seventeen of the twenty Israeli settlements in Gaza. Although some remain unsure whether the prime minister will follow through on this pledge, skepticism regarding Sharon's intentions should be balanced by other considerations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and Arab Countries

211. Arrows for India?

Author:: Richard Speier
Publication Date:: 09-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: When Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon visits India on September 9-11, he is likely to explore the possible sale of Israeli Arrow antiballistic missiles to New Delhi. The United States, which has provided funds and technology for the Arrow since 1986, has a veto right over sales to third parties. U.S. approval of a sale to India would offer both advantages and disadvantages.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, India, Israel, New Delhi, and Arabia

212. Turkish Water to Israel?

Author:: Ayca Ariyoruk
Publication Date:: 08-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A Turkish delegation is expected to be in Israel within the next few weeks, perhaps as early as August 20, to sign an agreement committing Israel to buy 50 million cubic meters (mcm) of water annually from Turkey for the next twenty years. Once the operational details -- price, timeline, and transportation methods -- are worked out, Turkish water will flow to Israel via purpose-built supertankers.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

213. Reading Between the Lines of the Sharm Al-Shaykh Summit

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At yesterday's Sharm al-Shaykh summit, President George W. Bush persisted in his post-September 11 campaign to transform the Middle Eastern landscape, an effort that includes not only promoting Israeli-Palestinian peace but transforming intra-Arab politics as well. A close reading of the carefully crafted statements by Bush and his Egyptian host, President Hosni Mubarak, offers a revealing look into where U.S. and Arab leaders agree, disagree, and choose to remain ambiguous on critical issues facing the region.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

214. Hizballah on the Defensive

Author:: Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:: 05-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In almost all of his speeches, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah has spoken about the pride that his organization brought to Arabs by forcing Israel to withdraw from Lebanon in May 2000. Now, however, the coalition forces have trampled on this pride: the Iraqi regime collapsed, and Baghdad fell without offering much resistance. Speaking on April 24, Nasrallah warned that "the most dangerous challenge now facing Arabs is the sense of hopelessness and stupor that has followed in the wake of Iraqi occupation." Indeed, on a variety of fronts, Hizballah is suddenly facing a new regional landscape that is inimical to its interests.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Baghdad, Arabia, and Lebanon

215. Trying to Walk a Fine Line? Hizballah's Stakes in the Current War

Author:: Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Amidst the war in Iraq, the Lebanese group Hizballah has decided not to open up what could have been a "second front" by attacking Israel. This decision should not be mistaken for passivity, however. With the world paying scant attention, Hizballah is seeking to shape Arab public opinion against the United States. It is important to understand the underlying forces that drive Hizballah's campaign against the United States so as to better comprehend the organization's stakes in the Iraq war and its aftermath.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

216. Bush and Blair: Tensions in the Relationship

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 04-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, speaking at the annual policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell, after mentioning the war in Iraq, declared, "no challenge, no opportunity, is more important, more pressing, than the quest to put an end to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians." Such wording is similar to sentiments expressed in recent weeks by British prime minister Tony Blair. However, there are indications that Washington's view about Israeli-Palestinian issues sharply differs from that of London.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Europe, Middle East, Israel, London, Palestine, and Arabia

217. Special Policy Forum Report: Jordan's Economic Upturn

Author:: Bassem Awadallah
Publication Date:: 02-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Jordan has always been regarded as a buffer state, wedged between turmoil to its east in Iraq and to its west in Israel and the West Bank. While those neighbors have faced turbulence in recent years, Jordan has enjoyed three years of substantial economic growth. Indeed, Jordan provides a positive example of what reform can accomplish in the Arab world.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Jordan

218. Terrorism As A Strategic Threat to Israel

Author:: Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:: 06-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Many Israelis and Palestinians once again have a sense of hope, following President George W. Bush's meeting with Arab leaders at Sharm al-Shaykh and with Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority (PA) prime minister Mahmoud Abbas (known as Abu Mazen) in Aqaba. This new hope in both societies poses an existential threat to terrorist organizations operating in the Israeli-Palestinian arena. Once Israel is no longer viewed as an enemy, there is no clear justification for the existence of such organizations. Hence, it should come as no surprise that these organizations are trying to escalate operations against Israel in an attempt to derail any peace initiatives. In the past, suicide operations undertaken by these organizations have been quite successful in achieving this objective; this should not be allowed to happen again.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

219. In Israeli Right-Left Divide, Center May Hold the Balance of Power

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2003
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The slide in the polls of Ariel Sharon's Likud Party over the last six weeks has been rather dramatic, transforming the character of the campaign from an expected Sharon landslide into a closer contest. In Thursday's Yediot Ahronot-Dahaf poll, Likud dropped from 40 to 28 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while Amram Mitzna's Labor Party edged up to 24 seats from 22. Sharon's losses stem directly from the swirl of Likud election corruption allegations, beginning with low-level charges of vote buying — illegal activity that may have helped catapult Sharon's son Omri onto the parliamentary list. The latest charges, denied by Sharon, surround a $1.5 million loan that the prime minister borrowed from a South African businessman friend, Cyril Kern, to pay back illegal campaign contributions in 1999. Sharon still clings to the hope that his denials will halt his party's slide downward, while Mitzna is finding new hope in the prospect that a drop in support for Likud will lead voters to take a second look at his candidacy.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

220. Keeping Al-Qaeda out of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Author:: Benjamin Orbach
Publication Date:: 12-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Initial suspicions, select intelligence reports, and growing evidence have indicated that al-Qaeda played a role in Thursday's attacks on an Israeli-owned hotel and airliner in Mombasa, Kenya. If this evidence proves accurate, the attacks signal a shift in al-Qaeda's choice of targets and demonstrate a new danger to immediate U.S. interests in the Middle East. After almost a year of silence, Osama bin Laden (or someone speaking in his name) has resurfaced with a revised political agenda meant to mobilize the Arab and Muslim worlds against the United States. Through two recent communications – a November 12 statement and a less publicized "Letter to the American People" distributed on the internet and translated by the British Observer on November 24 – al-Qaeda has made the Palestinian issue the new focal point of its allegations against the United States.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and War
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

221. Special Policy Forum Report: Prospects for Palestinian Economic Reform

Author:: Maher Al-Masri
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Palestinian economy has reached a situation like none it has ever experienced before. For several years leading up to 1999, average annual growth within the PA was estimated at 6.5 percent. Unemployment shrank to around 11.5 percent, poverty figures were on the decline, and, for the first time, the Palestinian economy was absorbing more Palestinian laborers than Israel. The economy might have been in an even better situation had trade and border conditions not been under strict Israeli control. Under such control, transported goods often had to be unloaded, checked, and reloaded, on top of several other impediments to the free flow of goods. Despite these impediments, however, the economy was progressing at a significant pace.
Topic:: Security, Religion, and Reform
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

222. Missing a Target: Missile Testing and U.S. Middle East Policy

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Over the course of a few days at the end of May, Iran conducted a missile test; Pakistan conducted three such tests; and Israel launched a reconnaissance satellite. Each of these instances serve as proof, if any were needed, that missiles are becoming an important part of the military scene in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. The question for Washington is how the growing sophistication of Middle East/Southwest Asian missiles will affect the stability of this volatile region.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Arabia

223. Special Policy Forum Report: The Powell Mission and the Bush Speech: Making Peace Possible?

Author:: Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Secretary of State Colin Powell and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon exchanged warm words regarding the U.S.-Israel relationship at a press conference on April 12, but underneath that they presented two distinct approaches to stopping the current violence in the region. Sharon emphasized that Israel is conducting a war on terror, stressing that completing the ongoing military operation is of the utmost importance. Powell was sympathetic to Israel's need to defend itself, but he emphasized finding a political answer to the conflict, one tied to a timetable for ending Israeli military operations.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

224. Public Diplomacy: Effective Strategies for the Future

Author:: Helena Kane Finn
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The day after a devastating suicide attack on the Israeli town of Netanya killed some twenty people celebrating the Passover Seder, Maria Rosa Menocal published an op-ed in the New York Times entitled "A Golden Age of Tolerance." In it, she reminded readers that "a thousand years ago on the Iberian Peninsula, an enlightened vision of Islam had created the most advanced culture in Europe. . . . [W]hat strikes us today about Al Andalus is that it was a chapter of European history during which Jews, Christians, and Muslims lived side by side, and despite intractable differences and enduring hostilities, nourished a culture of tolerance."
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: New York, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

225. Special Policy Forum Report: Middle East Policy Update: Where Are We Going? How Do We Get There?

Author:: Patrick Clawson and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Neither Prime Minister Ariel Sharon nor Chairman Yasir Arafat could have foreseen a year ago what is happening today — namely, an escalating spiral of terror and reprisal. Sharon believed that by insisting on "no negotiations under fire" and increasing pressure on the Palestinians, he could stabilize the situation. By sending his son to meet with Arafat, he also sought to convey that he would indeed negotiate once the violence stopped. Arafat believed that fissures would grow within Israeli society, or that a worsening of the situation would bring international intervention that either imposed a solution or enabled him to maneuver more freely. Neither leader got what he had hoped for.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

226. New Arenas for Iranian-Sponsored Terrorism: The Arab-Israeli Heartland

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet testified before the Senate Select Intelligence Committee on February 6 that Iran continues to be "the foremost state sponsor of terrorism." Citing its attempt to transfer offensive arms to the Palestinian Authority (PA) aboard the Karine-A smuggling ship, Tenet said that there has been "little sign of a reduction in Iran's support for terrorism in the past year."
Topic:: Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

227. Religion and Politics in Alexandria

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On January 20-21, an interfaith summit of Muslim, Christian, and Israeli Jewish leaders convened in Alexandria, Egypt, after several years of effort and planning. The meeting did not draw much attention in the Egyptian or Palestinian media — only in the Israeli media — but it deserves attention, if not for the religious dimension, then at least for the political.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Egypt

228. Syria and the War on Terrorism: Challenges for U.S. Policy (Part II)

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: With its longstanding support for terrorism, both pre- and post-September 11, Syria poses a unique challenge to U.S. antiterror strategy. Unlike Iran — whose leaders orchestrate public chants of "Death to America, death to Israel" and thereby provide rhetorical context to their sponsorship of terrorism — Damascus proclaims its desire for warm ties with the United States and its commitment to a "comprehensive" peace with Israel. Specifically, Syria has benefited from its role in the Arab-Israeli peace process and its suzerainty over Lebanon. These factors have for years combined to provide Syria with a measure of protection against U.S. (and Israeli) antiterror initiatives.
Topic:: Security and Religion
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Syria

229. Israeli Domestic Policy Issues and Sharp Economic Downturn

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 08-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This week, amid a deep economic recession, the national unity government of Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon narrowly adopted a 2003 austerity budget. Given the likelihood of new elections within a year, the time and attention of Israeli policymakers will likely be devoted to political maneuvering on serious domestic problems, in addition to the main issue: ongoing Palestinian-Israeli violence.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

230. Special Policy Forum Report: A Fence for the Foreseeable Future: Security and Political Implications

Author:: Matan Vilnai
Publication Date:: 07-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On July 17, 2002, Minister Matan Vilnai addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Vilnai is Israel's minister of science, culture, and sport; a member of Israel's inner security cabinet; a Labor member of Knesset; chairman of the ministerial committee for Israeli Arab affairs; and a reserve major-general (he served as head of Israel's Southern Command from 1989 to 1994 when Israeli forces redeployed out of Gaza). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. A few weeks ago, the Israeli government decided to establish a security fence between Israel and the West Bank in order to stem the tide of Palestinian suicide attacks. This fence has the support of the majority of Israelis for whom daily life has become a harrowing experience and for whom a fence brings some hope of security. This fence should not be seen as a substitute for diplomacy, but rather as a temporary security measure. The fence will not become the permanent border between Israel and the Palestinians. A permanent border can only attain legitimacy if it receives the support of both parties through negotiations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

231. Analyzing President Bush's New Framework for Mideast Peace

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 06-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: President George W. Bush today tore up a generation of conventional wisdom by offering a bold, new approach that conditioned U.S. support for eventual Palestinian statehood on a new political leadership; a "working democracy"; and far-reaching security, judicial, constitutional, and economic reform. At the same time, he seemed to ask nothing of Israel to which even the current Israeli government has not, in theory at least, already agreed. Having articulated this strategy, the White House will now surely face sustained pressure from Arab and European partners — and perhaps even from some within the administration — to balance the equation by early certification of Palestinian reform and/or accelerated demands on Israel for a redeployment of troops and a freeze on settlements.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

232. From Armed Struggle to Reform: A Textual Analysis of Arafat's Ramallah Address

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Speaking to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in Ramallah yesterday, Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat offered a new political agenda to guide the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the aftermath of Israel's Operation Defensive Shield and U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to win his release from Israeli encirclement. The main headings of that agenda are armed struggle, guided reform, and preparation for elections. No mention was made of the prospects for renewed negotiations or the proposed regional peace conference.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

233. The Intra-Likud Power Struggle and Israeli National Elections

Author:: Natan Sachs
Publication Date:: 05-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Likud Central Committee meets on Sunday to discuss a resolution opposing Palestinian statehood. Such a resolution could be seen as an important declarative step, despite its lack of legal significance (Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has publicly endorsed the idea of Palestinian statehood — albeit in vague terms). Although a vote on the topic may not occur, the fact that such a resolution is even being tabled casts a spotlight both on the party that is consistently leading Israeli polls and on the efforts of former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to unseat his rival, Sharon. The next national elections are currently scheduled for November 2003, but, as is often the case in Israeli politics, they could very well be held sooner. Interestingly, the current frontrunner is neither Sharon nor a member of Labor, the main opposing party, but rather a member of the prime minister's own party, the Likud. Two significant developments in the political landscape have contributed to this trend: first, in March 2001 the Knesset repealed the system of direct prime-ministerial elections and reinstated most of the elements of the old system, hoping to aid the larger parties (Likud and Labor) at the expense of smaller ones; second, since the outbreak of the current wave of Palestinian violence in September 2000, the voting preferences of the Israeli electorate have shifted dramatically to the right.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

234. Defensive Shield Counterterrorism Accomplishments

Author:: Matthew Levitt and Seth Wikas
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Operation Defensive Shield — the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF's) counterterrorism operation in the West Bank — aims to confiscate illegal weaponry and bombing materiel; destroy factories producing bombs and missiles; constrict the environment in which terrorists plan, prepare, and execute terror attacks; and, most important, apprehend the operatives behind the current terrorist offensive. The operation has come under increasing international fire for delivering only short-term benefits at what seems to be a disproportionately high human cost on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. An analysis of the operation's success to date, however, clarifies not only the absolute necessity for such an operation, but also the scope of the operation's success in proactively disrupting terrorists' ability to target Israeli civilians. Moreover, a close look at the operation yields a plethora of disturbing evidence exposing the depth of the Palestinian Authority's (PA's) involvement in terrorism, including its links to terrorist groups such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

235. Israel's Response to Lebanese Border Skirmishes

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Since March 28, 2002, the first day of Operation Defensive Shield — Israel's attempt to dismantle the Palestinian terrorist infrastructure — Lebanese Hizballah fighters have attacked northern Israeli settlements and military outposts on an almost daily basis. These unprovoked attacks have included the use of antitank missiles, mortars, katyusha rockets, and antiaircraft weapons directed at Israeli military and civilian aircraft. Among the towns attacked have been Shlomi, Kiryat Shmona, Moshav Beit Hillel, and the Allawite village Ghajar, where Hizballah fire wounded five residents, including three children. In an April 7 Hizballah attack on a military outpost in the western sector (a significant distance from the Shebaa Farms area), seven Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers — five of them women — were wounded. Despite these provocations, Israel has indicated that it does not wish to open a second front against Hizballah, the Lebanese army, or Syria. Yet, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon recently stated, "We are demonstrating restraint and are not interested in an escalation in the violence, but we cannot hold back for much longer," indicating that Israel's patience is about to run out and that harsh military response is imminent.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Syria

236. Special Soref Symposium Report

Author:: Emphraim Sneh
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: One of the best ways to reconcile Israel and the Arab world and, simultaneously, meet the interests of the United States is to maintain a demarcation in the Middle East between rogue states — e.g., those in the "axis of evil" — and moderate states. These moderates states, which are also allies of the United States, include Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, and some Persian Gulf and North African countries. All of these countries must work together to ensure stability in the Middle East and contribute to the containment of rogue states. A coalition of moderate states is feasible — such cooperation became prominent after the Oslo Accords, and it reached a high point at the 1996 Sharmel-Sheikh summit of peacemakers, where Israel, Turkey, and the moderate Arab states joined to condemn terrorism. Although this alliance is currently fractured, the circumstances required for its resumption can occur again. However, it is unlikely that such a coalition can be re-formed as long as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains unresolved. Whenever the Palestinian issue is a bleeding wound, the Middle East divides in the old way, with Israel on one side and the Arab and Muslim states on the other. The Palestinian issue is the only issue on which all the Arab states, moderate and rogue, tend to unite. When the peace process was on a positive track, however, the moderate states succeeded in isolating rogue states like Iraq.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

237. Operation Defensive Shield: The Israeli Actions in the West Bank

Author:: Nitsan Alon
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: What has Israel accomplished in its ongoing and large-scale operations in the West Bank? How well have the operations gone from the perspective of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)? The balance sheet is more positive than some accounts have suggested.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

238. Arafat's FInal Chance? President Bush's Speech: Textual Analysis

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 04-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In his Rose Garden speech yesterday, President George W. Bush jumped head-first into the waters of Middle East diplomacy by committing the prestige of his administration to the achievement of an Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire and, ultimately, to "ending the conflict and beginning an era of peace." Analytically, the most important innovation in the president's speech was his clear differentiation between the Palestinian people and the flawed, failed leadership of Yasir Arafat; absent was any hint of the recent days' mantra that Arafat remains indispensable to peacemaking. At the same time, however, the administration stopped short of breaking new ground operationally, relying instead on the prestige of the presidency, the persuasive powers of the secretary of state, and the implied threat to turn to other, as-yet-unnamed "responsible Palestinian leaders" to take the reins of power in the event this last-chance diplomacy fails to stem the terrorism and violence of recent days. Along the way, the president's decision to mesh political objectives with the goal of a ceasefire risked both an erosion of U.S. credibility in Mideast diplomacy and even more terrorism by giving Palestinians reason to believe that violence does succeed in chipping away at U.S. conditions for high-level political engagement.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

239. Special Policy Forum Report: Demographics in the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute

Author:: Arnon Soffer
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Beyond the current violence and terrorism lies a demographic reality in the Arab-Israeli dispute which might in the future transform the politics, economics, and geography of the region. The demographics may affect U.S. foreign policy vis-à-vis the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

240. Entering the Refugee Camps: The Israeli Counterterrorist Offensive in the Gaza Strip

Author:: Nitsan Alon
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Over the past month, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a large-scale operation in several cities and refugee camps in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, beginning on the night of February 27 and ending nearly three weeks later with the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Bethlehem and Bet-Jalla on March 18. This operation was unique in several ways: the scale of activity was the largest of the current conflict; it included simultaneous action in several areas in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, using ground, air, and naval forces; and it included massive penetration into areas under full Palestinian control (Area A) and, most notably, into refugee camps, long considered almost out-of-bounds for security forces (even those of the Palestinian Authority [PA]). A careful look at the operation and its outcome, however, shows that the rationale behind it does not represent a shift in Israeli military strategy, but merely a more robust implementation of it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

241. Hizballah's Vision of the Lebanon-Israel Border

Author:: Avi J. Jorisch
Publication Date:: 03-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 28, Hizballah fired 57mm-antiaircraft missiles at Israeli planes flying over the Shebaa Farms area. According to Hizballah information officer Hassan Azzedin, "the current line of Israeli withdrawal ('blue line') is not consistent with the international boundary and not recognized by the Lebanese government. That's why we're pursuing the path of resistance." Indeed, Hizballah claims that Israel continues to occupy sovereign Lebanese territory, and the organization makes this claim the basis for what it considers legitimate resistance. What, then, is Hizballah's vision of where the Lebanon-Israel border should lie?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Lebanon

242. Sharon and Buffer Zones

Author:: David Makovksy
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Recriminations between Israelis and Palestinians on whether Israel sufficiently eased restrictions yesterday on the movement of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasir Arafat within Ramallah (in return for the arrest of three Palestinians involved in the killing of an Israeli cabinet minister) have overshadowed Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's declaration on Thursday to establish buffer zones in the West Bank.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

243. Deterioration Along the Israel-Lebanon Border

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the past month there have been no less than six incidents in which Hizballah's antiaircraft batteries opened fire against Israeli civilian and military aircraft flying in Israel's northern airspace. This in addition to its repeated and unprovoked attacks on Israeli outposts in the Mount Dov region, next to the Shaba Farms — the 750 acres Lebanon claims as its territory without UN support. In the latest attack on January 24, Hizballah fighters fired rockets, mortars, and forty antitank missiles at an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) outpost.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Lebanon

244. Special Policy Forum Report: Isreal Defense Policy: Responding to Challenges Near and Far

Author:: Binyamin Ben-Eliezer
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: "In the new world reality that emerged after September 11, it is easier for everyone to understand that there are no good terrorists and bad terrorists; it is not true that one man's terrorist — as some try to tell us — is another man's 'freedom fighter.' One man's terrorist is everyone's terrorist. . . . In this new world, it is very important that we show no tolerance for those who try to play a double game between us and the terrorists, for those who try to sit on the fence, one leg here, one leg there. In our region, some players still think, still feel, that they can continue the old game, playing both ends. The message must be clear: the old game is over. Make your choice, make it clear, and make it work. . . .
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

245. Special Policy Forum Report: Palestinian-Israeli Dynamics and the Future of Palestine

Author:: Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The parameters and structure of Palestinian society and polity have not yet been clearly defined or recognized. For Palestine, as for all societies that have been through liberation struggles, the extent of violence during the struggle will have a long-term impact on the future course of Palestinian politics, political values, identity issues, and institutional structures. The means through which the Palestinians obtain their independence will also have a major impact on the future of Palestinian-Israeli relations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, London, and Palestine

246. Arafat's Vision of Peace: A Textual Analysis

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 02-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 3, the New York Times published an op-ed by Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat titled "The Palestinian Vision of Peace." The timing of this op-ed is not coincidental. It appeared after several weeks of worsening U.S.-Palestinian ties, during which President George W. Bush registered his deep "disappointment" with the Palestinian leadership and U.S. officials contemplated cutting diplomatic ties with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Coming just days before visits to Washington by Israel's prime minister and defense minister, and just days after those Israeli leaders met with Palestinian interlocutors frequently cited as political successors to Arafat, this op-ed clearly sought to achieve several objectives: (1) to begin the process of repairing bilateral U.S.-Palestinian relations by spotlighting Arafat's peacemaking credentials; (2) to remind American audiences that Arafat — and not his subordinates and would-be successors — determines Palestinian strategy; and (3) to reorder the U.S.-Israel agenda this week to focus more on diplomacy and less on pressuring Arafat on terrorism and the investigation of the Karine-Aweapons-smuggling effort.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, New York, America, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

247. The Future of the Multinational Force and Observers in Sinai

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Growing U.S. military involvement in new locations such as Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and the Philippines has raised concerns in the Pentagon about overstretching the military and has prompted a call to reassess the future of America's long-standing contribution to peacekeeping missions worldwide. One of the missions at risk of being curtailed is the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) — an independent, international peacekeeping and verification organization established by Egypt and Israel to monitor the security arrangements of their 1979 peace treaty. The idea of downsizing the 900-man U.S. contingent in the Sinai Peninsula has been raised several times by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. "I do not believe that we still need our forces in the Sinai," he said in a recent public statement. But the timing of such a change — especially in light of the deterioration in Egyptian-Israeli relations since the beginning of the al-Aqsa intifada — is questionable. At a time when other voices are calling for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Saudi Arabia, a withdrawal from Sinai — even if only a reduction — could symbolize to many a decreasing U.S. interest in the region. It could also deny the recently violent Egyptian-Israeli-Palestinian border area an important and necessary cooling-off mechanism.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, America, Middle East, Israel, Uzbekistan, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula

248. The Seizure of Gaza-Bound Arms: Military Implications

Author:: Gal Luft
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Alongside the diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire with Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been involved — since the beginning of the second intifada — in the indigenous production of weapons and ammunition and in repeated attempts to smuggle arms on a massive scale into the territories under its control. To thwart these efforts and to degrade the PA's fighting capabilities, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have destroyed dozens of warehouses and weapons-producing factories and have sealed all land, sea, and air passages leading into the PA.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

249. The Seizure of Gaza-Bound Arms: Political Implications

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israeli naval commandos seized the Gaza-bound freighter Karine-A in the Red Sea last Thursday, exposing a cargo hold containing fifty tons of munitions. The seizure took place in international waters some 300 miles off of Israel's southern coast, between Sudan and Saudi Arabia. The ship's captain, Omar Akkawi, later participated in an interview with Reuters and several television networks invited by Israeli authorities to the prison where Akkawi was being held; in the interview, he named Adel Awadallah of the Palestinian Authority (PA) as head of the operation. Akkawi also identified himself as both a long-time member of Yasir Arafat's Fatah and a naval advisor to the PA's Ministry of Transport; the PA subsequently confirmed the latter fact. In front of the reporters, Akkawi disclosed his instructions to first collect arms at a specified point off of Iran's coast and then sail through the Red Sea and Suez Canal to the Mediterranean. He also confirmed that one of the men who helped load the arms onto his ship was a member of the Iranian-backed Hizballah, and that one of his own crew members had been trained by the group.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Sudan, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

250. The Hamas Ceasefire: Historical Background, Future Foretold?

Author:: Seth Wikas
Publication Date:: 01-2002
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The arrival of U.S. envoy General Anthony Zinni in Jerusalem today comes during a relative lull in the terrorism and violence that has characterized the Israeli-Palestinian scene since the eruption of the al-Aqsa intifada in September 2000. This lull is at least partly due to the December 21 decision of Hamas to suspend attacks against Israel. But a review of the eight years since the signing of the Oslo Accord shows that this is actually the ninth ceasefire that Hamas has offered or declared during that period.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Oslo

251. U.S. - Israel Tension in the Aftermath of September 11

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the world has focused on the U.S. effort against Osama bin Laden in the aftermath of September 11, friction has been building between the United States and Israel. The growing feeling in Israel has been that U.S. coalition-building with the Arabs against terrorism has involved tradeoffs which come at Israel's expense and thus compromises Israeli security concerns. The tension peaked at the end of last week when Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon made intemperate remarks, implying a potential comparison between President George W. Bush and Neville Chamberlains Munich capitulation to the Nazis. The White House immediately termed such comments "unacceptable" — Sharon quickly apologized, calling it a misunderstanding.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

252. The Language of Terrorism

Author:: Avi Jorisch
Publication Date:: 10-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: After a three-week hiatus following the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, Tuesday saw renewed car bombings in Israel. Yet, it is not only Israel that faces a threat from radical Islamist suicide terrorists, but also many Arab states. Given this fact, it is all the more striking that many mainstream Muslim religious leaders are still unwilling to condemn suicide bombings in general, irrespective of the cause that the bombers espouse.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

253. Confusing Signals Out of Saudi Arabia

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On Friday in Europe, Secretary of State Colin Powell is set to meet Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Washington's relationship with the world's largest oil exporter has become strained for reasons more complicated than Crown Prince Abdullah's recent reluctance to meet President Bush at the White House, allegedly because of perceived U.S. bias toward Israel and against the Palestinians. Saudi diplomacy suffers a credibility problem because contradictory statements by top Saudi officials often leave diplomats guessing as to what is the real Saudi position.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

254. President Bush's National Energy Policy and the Middle East

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Bush administration this week launched initiatives on two fronts of U.S. concern about the Middle East: Secretary of State Colin Powell's proposals to end Arab–Israeli violence and Vice President Dick Cheney's national energy policy. While the energy policy report concentrates on domestic issues, it necessarily discusses the Middle East. Its prescriptions about the Middle East, however, are vague. At worst, Washington appears unwilling to criticize the price-influencing production policies of the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel, dominated by Middle Eastern countries.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

255. Special Policy Forum Report -- Managing U.S.-Turkish Relations

Author:: Mark Parris
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Turkey is important . . . The new administration, based on what it has said and done since January, understands this." "One reason [for Turkey's importance], of course, is its location and the issues that come with that geography-big issues; issues that have literally made or broken past administrations' foreign policies: Russia; the Caucasus and Central Asia; Iran; Iraq; post-Asad Syria; Israel and the Arab world; Cyprus and the Aegean; the Balkans; the European Security and Defense Initiative (ESDI); drugs, thugs, and terror. I would submit that no administration can achieve its objectives on any of these issues unless the Turks are on the same page.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, Syria, and Cyprus

256. At The Bottom Of The Bush-Mubarak Agenda? The Slow Pace Of Political Reform In Egypt

Author:: Amy W. Hawthorne
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Urgent regional matters — such as Iraq and the Arab–Israeli peace process — will dominate the agenda during Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's visit to Washington this week, while Egypt's transition to a free-market economy and U.S.– Egypt trade ties will also receive attention. Egyptian domestic politics, however, will register little, aside from U.S. frustrations over anti-Semitism in the Egyptian press and concern about the status of Egypt's Coptic Christians. Although the regime appears quite stable, having secured a "victory" in its 1990s conflict with violent extremist groups, the state of political reform in Egypt, America's most important Arab ally, merits a closer look. That is because Egypt's long-term economic reform — in which Washington has invested so much — can succeed only if accompanied by meaningful political liberalization.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

257. Lebanon: Between Hong Kong And Hanoi

Author:: Yossi Baidatz
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In recent weeks, a simmering debate between the two major power centers in domestic Lebanese politics has spilled into public view. This debate pits newly installed Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who represents those who want Lebanon to take advantage of Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon to focus on internal stability, economic reconstruction and securing foreign investment, against Hizballah leader Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, who — with the support of Syria and Iran — champions maintaining Lebanon's role on the front line of the ongoing revolutionary resistance against Israel. This tension was described in the Lebanese newspaper an-Nahar as the choice between "Hanoi" (Nasrallah) and "Hong Kong" (Hariri). As with most Middle East crises, the development of this delicate and flammable dispute carries both risks and opportunities for Lebanon and other players on the Middle East scene.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Hong Kong

258. Powell To The Middle East: Assessing The Key Elements Of Iraq Policy

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On February 26, U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell begins his tour of Iraq's Arab neighbors just as UN secretary-general Kofi Annan is scheduled to hold discussions with Iraqi foreign minister Mohammad Said al-Sahhaf in New York. Key themes in these meetings will be the return of UN weapons inspectors to Iraq; the future of UN sanctions; the need to prevent Iraqi adventurism, especially into the Arab–Israeli arena; and the larger U.S. goal of "regime change" in Iraq.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, New York, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

259. Arab Reactions To Sharon's Victory In The Israeli Election

Author:: Mohamed Abdel-Dayem
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Arab reactions to Ariel Sharon's overwhelming victory in the recent Israeli national election were mixed. Some condemned him with a confrontational tone, while some suggested that the election made no difference — that is, that all Israeli leaders have basically the same stance. Several Arab leaders opted to take a "wait and see" approach. An optimistic minority of Arab commentators viewed Sharon's leadership in a positive light. The following is a representative sampling of Arab reactions to Sharon's victory.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

260. The 'Al-Aqsa Intifada' And The Prospects For A Wider Arab-Israeli War

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian officials have threatened an intensification of violence, should — as is expected — Ariel Sharon be elected prime minister of Israel tomorrow. The Palestinian leadership that "rewarded" Prime Minister Ehud Barak's diplomatic flexibility with the "al-Aqsa Intifada" thus seems poised to "punish" the Israeli public for electing Sharon with an escalation of the bloodletting. Its goal would be to force Israel to soften its negotiating position, and perhaps provoke a harsh response that would place world opinion — largely unsympathetic to Sharon to begin with — squarely on the Palestinian side.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Ethnic Conflict, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

261. Can Iraq Reconstitute The Arab Eastern Front Against Israel?

Author:: Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While President Bill Clinton is laying out his plans for peace in the Middle East, others are talking about their readiness for war. Iraqi dictator Saddam Husayn's defiant January 6 Army Day speech supporting the Palestinian revolt followed on the December 31 four-hour "Al Aqsa Call" military parade in Baghdad dedicated to the Palestinian cause. By some reports, this parade included hundreds of tanks, dozens of helicopters, new troop-transport trucks, and new short-range missiles — impressive, given that the Iraqi army was assumed to be having problems maintaining its equipment, much less acquiring new systems. One unconfirmed report suggests that elements of the Hamurabi Republican Guard Division would be permanently stationed west of Baghdad on the road to either Syria and Jordan.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Jordan

262. Deterioration on Israeli-Palestinian Front: Assessing Options

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 12-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The decision by Israel's security cabinet last night to sever contact with Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Yasir Arafat, declaring him "irrelevant" in halting current Hamas suicide bombings and attacks, marks a new nadir in Israeli-Palestinian relations since the 1993 Oslo accords. Israel is frustrated by how little the PA has done to arrest Hamas members and other terrorists who are allegedly connected to the ongoing violence. But Israel's options are limited.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

263. Special Policy Forum Report: Zinni Mission in the Aftermath of Powell's Speech

Author:: David Makovsky and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Secretary Powell's speech did not introduce any new substantive points into the debate. However, it outlined for the first time the Bush administration's view regarding the situation in the Middle East. It also offered some important symbolic points that could provide Yasir Arafat a means of ending the current impasse. He may indeed consider doing so. The points in the speech that will probably be well received by the Palestinians include the use of the term "occupation." Many Palestinians see occupation as the very essence of the conflict. Combining Powell's mention of occupation with his references to Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338, Palestinians may infer that he is calling for a return to the June 1967 borders.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, America, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

264. Special Policy Forum Report: The War Against Terror: A View From Inside Israel's National Unity Government

Author:: Ephraim Sneh
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On November 8, 2001, Ephraim Sneh addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. Mr. Sneh is minister of transportation in Israel's national unity government and a member of the Knesset from the Labor party. He has served previously as minister of health under Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and as deputy minister of defense under Prime Minister Ehud Barak. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

265. Special Policy Forum Report: Israel, the Peace process, and the War Against Terrorism

Author:: Dan Meridor
Publication Date:: 11-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Despite the current tense situation, there has been no change in the fundamentals of the Israel-U.S. relationship. Israel understands the unique character of the relationship and will do what it can to accommodate vital U.S. needs. If post-September 11, the United States needs Israel to maintain a lower profile, so be it. Since that date, the United States has been very helpful in pressing Arafat to desist from terrorist attacks, and Israel appreciates that effort.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

266. A Year of Middle East Violence: Balance Sheet and Prospects in the Aftermath of September 11

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 09-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At the direct and repeated behest of the Bush administration, Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres and Palestinian Authority chairman Yasir Arafat met yesterday at the Gaza Airport — their first meeting since June. Given the extraordinary circumstances of the September 11 attacks and the U.S. desire to fashion an international coalition against terrorism, the meeting is bound to raise hopes that the latest ceasefire will take hold. As previous Israeli-Palestinian ceasefires have collapsed, however, the implications of this meeting cannot be predicted with any certainty. This Friday, September 28, marks the first anniversary of the violence that has engulfed Israelis and Palestinians and scuttled the peace process. Such an occasion presents an opportunity to assess the impact of this violence and to consider the future in light of the September 11 attacks in New York and Washington.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, New York, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

267. 'Pre-Emptive Targeted Killings' as a Counter-Terror Tool: An Assessment of Israel's Approach

Author:: Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Yesterday's killing of Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) chief Abu 'Ali Mustafa by Israel, and the State Department's condemnation of this act, have refocused attention on Israel's use of "targeted killings" as part of its counter-terror policy. Since the start of the "al-Aqsa intifada," Israeli forces have killed more than three dozen Palestinians allegedly involved in planning or carrying out attacks on Israeli civilians. Nearly all have been from Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and Palestinian Authority (PA)-affiliated groups such as the Fatah Tanzim. Critics of these actions claim they are ineffective, if not counterproductive. What does the record show?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

268. Israel's Search for Peace and Security: Lessons of the Past, Options for the Future

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 08-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The horrific suicide terror bombing today, during lunchtime in the heart of downtown Jerusalem, cannot merely be dismissed as an attack by a deranged fanatic. In the immediate aftermath of the suicide bombing, Islamic Jihad leader Ramadan Abdullah Shalah immediately went on the popular Arab satellite television station Al-Jazeera defending the attack and calling for similar blasts to be launched against the United States. (Immediately after providing Shalah with twenty minutes to deliver a soliloquy, the Al-Jazeera anchor called the terrorist incident that killed at least fifteen civilians including six infants, a fedayeen or guerilla operation.)
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

269. Special Policy Forum Report: Israel's Search for Peace and Security: Lessons of the Past, Options for the Future

Author:: Ehud Barak
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum on July 19, 2001. The following are excerpts from his remarks. "I will . . . make some telegraphic remarks about why I believe we are facing now the kind of violence that we are facing, what could or should be done about it from my point of view, and what is the longer term prospect for what will happen in the Middle East. . . . "Why are we facing this violence? Since Chairman Arafat decided deliberately to turn to violence. . . . He decided [this] when he realized at Camp David exactly a year ago we had a moment of truth where real tough, painful decisions were needed on both sides, not just plain or smooth talk.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

270. Islamic Palestine or Libertated Palestine? The Relationship Between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Reuven Paz, academic director of the International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herziliya, Israel, visiting fellow at The Washington Institute in 2000-2001, and author of the forthcoming Institute policy focus, Tangled Web: International Networking of the Islamist Struggle, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum on July 12, 2001. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

271. Ceasefire Monitoring and the U.S. Role: What Powell Did and Didn't Say

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 07-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As car bombs inside Israel and the Israeli targeting of Islamic Jihad operatives postpones for another day the start of the seven-day "no incident period" arranged by Secretary of State Colin Powell last week, yesterday's retaliatory attack by Israeli F-16 aircraft against a Syrian radar station in the Bekaa Valley highlights another theme of the Powell visit — the role of third-party monitors in the Arab-Israeli arena. Indeed, Israel's reprisal for Hizballah's missile attacks in the Shebaa Farms area across the international border provides a timely reminder about the limitations of monitoring conducted by peacekeeping forces such as the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon. Moreover, it underscores the key missing ingredients in virtually all Middle East monitoring arrangements: the willingness to engage in open, public, truthful, and non-politicized verification of compliance/non-compliance and the creation of effective enforcement mechanisms.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

272. Jordan and the Islamists: Unfinished Business

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Secretary of State Colin Powell arrives in Tel Aviv today to shore up the shaky Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire, across the river in Jordan, King Abdullah is quietly coping with his own separate but related crisis. On June 14, without any prior warning, Ibrahim Ghawsheh, the Hamas spokesman expelled from the kingdom in 1999 for his political activities, arrived at Queen Alia Airport on a Qatari Airways flight from Doha. Jordanian authorities refused him entry, and Ghawsheh, who is sixty-five-years-old, has since remained in custody at the airport. The Ghawsheh standoff-which comes as King Abdullah prepares to postpone impending elections and modify the electoral law-highlights the kingdom's ongoing difficulties with its Islamists.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

273. Special Policy Forum Report: Challenges Facing Israel Abroad and At Home

Author:: Avraham Burg
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Avraham Burg, Speaker of the Israeli Knesset and a leading candidate in the upcoming September 4 primary for Labor Party chairman, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum on June 19, 2001. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Despite the violence and terror of the past months, 60 percent of Israelis are still ready to make painful compromises in order to achieve peace-if they see that they have a viable partner. The Israelis have already decided that in order to live in peace they will need to make a compromise with their history. The kind of restrained leadership Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has shown since the formation of this government indicates that the message of painful compromises for real peace is the policy of the State of Israel. Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat has not yet come to the same point. He is not yet ready to make a compromise with his own Palestinian or Islamic history in order to live respectfully in peace alongside Israel. It will be virtually impossible to restart negotiations without understanding what happened in the negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians. Only knowing what occurred will allow the parties to avoid the mistakes of the past — and there were real mistakes on both sides. Abba Eban once said that the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity, and the Palestinians have lived up to this expectation. They did not understand the greatness of the moment that Camp David presented and therefore approached the talks with a negative, aggressive, and violent energy-which quickly replaced the dynamic of the past six to eight years. To understand what this means, consider how Arafat reacted to Sharon's visit to the Temple Mount last September. Arafat had two options: he could have greeted Sharon, showing his people and the world that the PA would guarantee freedom of access and of worship, and therefore could be counted on to provide all the benefits of peace; or he could exploit the visit in order to ignite the region. Arafat chose the second option.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

274. Special Policy Forum Report: Egypt, Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority: Impressions from a Regional Tour

Author:: Robert Satloff and David Brooks
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: At Camp David/Taba, the Palestinians left the Israeli bride at the altar, so to speak, by turning down the agreement. Regional actors have responded differently. Some Arab leaders, especially Egyptians, are in denial, arguing that former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's proposals are still valid and that the peace process is still salvageable. Many Arabs blame the failure of Camp David/Taba on the "arrangements" — technical problems, miscommunication, or poor timing of proposals that caused the talks to fizzle. If only these problems were fixed, they argue, an agreement could be worked out.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan

275. Israel's National Unity Governments: A Retrospective

Author:: Michael Phillips Moskowitz
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Friday, June 15 marks day one hundred for the Sharon administration and Israel's sixth national unity government. The occasion warrants a look back at the five previous Israeli unity governments.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Government
Political Geography:: Israel and Arabia

276. Palestinian-Israeli Political Fatalities, September 28, 2000 - April 30, 2001

Author:: Liat Radcliffe
Publication Date:: 06-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The following report evaluates trends in Israeli-Palestinian violence during the past seven months using fatality statistics. This analysis covers the period from the outbreak of the "Al Aqsa Intifada" on September 28, 2000 through to April 30, 2001. The following statistics are based primarily on information provided by the Israeli human rights group B'tselem. This data has been cross-checked for accuracy with the Israeli government and U.S. and other Western media sources. For information about fatalities in earlier periods and about methodology, see Peacewatch #317: "Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities During The Barak Government: A Statistical Overvie" and Research Note #8: "Trends in Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities, 1987-1999."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

277. Special Policy Forum Report: U.S. Policy, The Mitchell Report and the Palestinian Uprising: Assessment and Prospects

Author:: Robert Satloff and Dennis Ross
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Bush administration confronts a certain context on the ground in Israel and the Palestinian territories: Increasing violence. The violence gets worse and worse, and seems to have a logic and momentum of its own. There has been a descent into what may only be described as "communal violence."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

278. Special Policy Forum Report: The Lebanon-Syria-Israel Triangle: One Year After Israeli Withdrawal

Author:: Eyal Zisser
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While the violence in the West Bank and Gaza captures most of the attention, arguably more important developments in the last year have occurred in the Syria-Lebanon-Israel triangle.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, Arabia, Gaza, North Africa, Lebanon, and Syria

279. The Mitchell Commission Report: Many Problems, Few Solutions

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: This morning, the text of the long-awaited Mitchell Commission Report, an account of the past seven months of Israeli-Palestinian violence written by a five-member committee headed by former Senate majority leader George Mitchell, was made publicly available. Conceived as a "committee of fact finding" at the October 17, 2000 Sharm al Shaykh conference, its stated goal was to answer "What happened," "why it happened," and how the "recurrence of violence [could] be prevented."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

280. Special Policy Forum Report: Israel's Strategy for Peace and Security

Author:: Shimon Perez
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: "We are passing through a very demanding corridor of politics and exchanges, of an emotional crisis of blame and accusations where the voice of peace is minor and occasionally words may be as dangerous as bullets. We have to stop both the incitement and the fire. My real optimism is that I am convinced that sooner or later — and better sooner — all of us will recognize there is no alternative but to return to the table of negotiation, and part from the bloody battlefields that do not produce solutions."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:: Israel and Arabia

281. The Saudi Fatwah Against Suicide Terrorism

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 21, the grand mufti of Saudi Arabia, Shaykh Abd al-Aziz bin Abdallah Aal al-Shaykh, said that Islam forbids suicide terrorist attacks. This has raised a storm of criticism from supporters of the Palestinian intifada against Israel. However, the mufti may have been thinking more about Osama bin Ladin than recent Palestinian actions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

282. The State Department's Annual Terrorism Report: Politics As Usual

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 05-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: On April 30, the Department of State issued its comprehensive annual report Patterns of Global Terrorism, describing incidents and trends in international terrorism in the year 2000. This year's report covers the first three months of accelerated Palestinian-Israeli violence. It is also marks the first time the Bush administration State Department has been compelled to publicly comment on the nature of Lebanese Hizballah attacks against Israel in the post-withdrawal era.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

283. Special Soref Symposium Report: Israel's Search for Security and Peace

Author:: Limor Livnat
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: " . . . The political road that brought us to the crossroads we are now at was one replete with navigational errors, steering miscalculations, and poor vision, traveled by fatigue-driven guides driving under the influence of reckless idealism and senseless naïveté . . . On February 6 of this year, the people of Israel made it eminently clear that they know it, and have left the road that led from Oslo to chaos and bloodshed in their homes and on their streets. The best of Israel's political pundits could not have imagined that Ariel Sharon would ever be elected prime minister of Israel, let alone with a plurality unprecedented in democratic nations. But they did not understand the people of Israel, and probably still don't. It was the most potent statement imaginable in favor of a new road and a more promising future."
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

284. Iran: More Fuel on the Israeli-Palestinian Fire

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The last two days have witnessed "The International Conference on the Palestinian Intifada" in Tehran. The conference was a major step in Iran's drive to accelerate terrorist attacks on Israel. Delegates to the conference came from thirty-four countries, including Syrian vice president Muhammad Zahir Mosahareqa, Lebanese National Assembly Speaker Nabih Berri, and representatives from many parliaments (e.g., Irish Senator Mick Lanigan). Palestinian participants included Palestinian Authority (PA) minister in charge of Jerusalem affairs Faisal Husseini and Palestinian National Council head Salim Za'noun (Abu Adib), one of the founding generation of Fatah and for many years the main link between Yasir Arafat and Islamic fundamentalist circles.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Syria

285. Special Policy Forum Report: Palestinian Attitudes During the Bush/Sharon Era

Author:: Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Among the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, there are three perspectives as to why violent confrontations began in September: The Camp David II negotiations uncovered underlying differences in Israeli and Palestinian interests that are simply unbridgeable. Recent confrontations are basically the product of these differences. In this scenario, no return to negotiations is going to improve the situation. The current situation reflects domestic political constraints in both societies. Weak leaders, populations that are not prepared for the compromises needed for a final settlement, coalition politics, and questions of legitimacy are working against a solution. In this scenario, a permanent settlement is possible but certainly not easy. The two negotiating teams could have wrapped up the talks if they had had more time; indeed, they came very close to a compromise at Taba in January. According to this scenario, a matter of procedural difficulty — a miscalculation, misperception, or simply a lack of time — probably impeded the finalization of an agreement at Taba, while violence was still flaring in the territories. Most Palestinians are of the second school of thought. They did not believe that a deal was imminent at Camp David II or at Taba. Indeed, the belief that a comprehensive deal is imminent has eroded over time. Yet most Palestinians continue to hope that strong leaders in Israel and among the Palestinians can make essential compromises. Recently, a prominent perception among the Palestinian public was that Israel's weak government initiated the violence after Camp David II because Israel wanted the Palestinians to accept something that they had rejected. This perception, plus the heavy causalities and the collective punishment sustained over the past few months, has helped to radicalize Palestinian society.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

286. Special Policy Forum Report: The Brink of Peace? And Inside Look from Camp David to Taba

Author:: Gilead Sher
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat is responsible for the collapse of the peace process and for the extreme violence of the last seven months. In the year and a half of negotiations with the Palestinians under the leadership of former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, the objective was a permanent peace settlement: Israel would withdraw from a large part of the occupied territories, and, in return, there would be an official end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The intention was to fashion an alternative to occupation, since this situation was not only untenable, but was also a strategic burden to Israel. Arafat, however, would only accept an agreement in which all of his demands were met; failing this, he would and did resort to imposing an arrangement through violent confrontation. Consequently, the peace process collapsed. Arafat was never ready — mentally, personally, or historically, at Camp David or afterwards — to conclude a deal; he is a leader of a national movement and not a statesman.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arab Countries

287. Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities During The Barak Government: A Statistical Overview

Author:: Liat Radcliffe
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The following report analyzes political fatalities in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that occurred during the government of Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak (July 7, 1999-March 7, 2001). This report is an update to The Washington Institute's Research Note #8: Trends in Israeli-Palestinian Political Fatalities, 1987-1999. Like the research note, its primary source for data is the Israeli human rights group Btselem, although other sources (including various media sources) were also used. Consistent with the previous study, no deaths that resulted from inter-Israeli or inter-Palestinian violence are included in this report; for example, the deaths of Israeli Arabs, Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, and accused Palestinian collaborators with Israel are excluded. A main conclusion from the data is that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict increasingly involves official security services, as distinct from civilians.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict and Government
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

288. FORCE-17: The Renewal Of Old Competition Motivates Violence

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 04-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: During the recent intifada, certain Palestinian security forces have been intensively involved in violent attacks on Israeli military and civilian targets. Most prominently involved have been the personal security guards of Yasir Arafat, popularly known as Force-17 and officially called Amn al-Ri'asah(Presidential Security). On March 30, Israeli forces bombarded from the air two of the headquarters of this force in Ramallah and Gaza, in the first serious Israeli retaliation under the new Sharon government. Then in early April, Israeli forces arrested several members of this force inside Area A, the area that is under full control of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

289. The Arab League Summit: Opportunities Amid The Vitriol?

Author:: Rovert Satloff
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: In the Middle East, this week witnessed a series of events occurring at such breakneck speed that it is important not to lose the significance of each: On Thursday, President Bush issued an unprecedented statement calling on Chairman Yasir Arafat to "stop the violence," a statement that could lay down a marker by which the administration judges the efforts of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and which could determine the direction of the U.S.–Palestinian relationship under the new administration. On Wednesday, Israel's national unity government launched retaliatory attacks against Arafat's personal guard, Force 17, underscoring Israel's intent to hold the chairman personally responsible for the terrorism emanating from within his close circle. On Monday and Tuesday, bombs went off inside the heart of Israel — responsibility for which was claimed by the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad, suggesting that Tehran is eager to tap pro-Hizballah sympathy and compete with the Tanzim and other Fatah elements for the pacesetter's role in the Palestinian uprising. Also on Tuesday, the PA chose an all-or-nothing option at the United Nations, demanding a Security Council vote on a resolution that the United States had no trouble vetoing — one calling for an international protection force for Palestinians — rather than pursuing diplomacy to bring to a vote a watered-down, but still problematic, resolution on which Washington was prepared to compromise. And on Sunday, Israel's Likud-led government issued a communique affirming its intent to seek the full implementation of signed agreements with the Palestinians, specifically citing its willingness to fulfill the requirement for a third "further redeployment" — territorial withdrawal in the West Bank — in the context of full compliance with the Wye River Memorandum. Each of these items alone has significant ramifications for the direction of Arab–Israeli relations, the Palestinian uprising, and U.S. policy toward the peace process. Taken together, they suggest a situation in great flux with emerging trends that are both ominous (e.g., Iran's deepening role) and positive (e.g., Bush's forthrightness on violence, Israel's balance of diplomacy and force).
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Organization
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Palestine, and Arab Countries

290. From Tehran To Beirut To Jerusalem: Iran And Hizballah In The Palestinian Uprising

Author:: Reuven Paz
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Arab leaders gather in Amman for the first regular Arab summit in a decade, non-Arab Iran is keenly watching to see whether Arab heads-of-state once again make grandiose promises to support the Palestinians. If Arab leaders fail to deliver on these promises, as has been the case with Arab financial commitments to the Palestinians, it would open the door for Tehran to build on Hizballah's success in Lebanon and to deepen its already worrisome role in the Israeli–Palestinian arena.
Topic:: International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Palestine, Arabia, Jerusalem, Lebanon, and Beirut

291. Special Policy Forum Report; The Arab-Israeli Peace Process: Past, Present, And Future

Author:: Dennis Ross and Jacqueline Kaufman
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Over the past twelve years a revolution has taken place in the landscape of peacemaking in the Middle East. Twelve years ago, direct negotiations were non-existent and there was no peace process. While negotiations themselves do not ensure an agreement, their total absence ensures that there can be no resolution. The United States has borne the burden of trying to create dialogue.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

292. The Palestinian Authority: En Route To The State Department's Terrorism List?

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The U.S. Department of State will shortly issue its semi-annual Palestine Liberation Organization Commitments Compliance Act (PLOCCA) report. This report, now several weeks overdue, details PLO and Palestinian Authority (PA) compliance with their "peace process" commitments. And in April, the State Department will release its annual report about global terrorism. The release of these reports comes just weeks after Israeli chief of staff Shaul Mofaz described the PA as a "terrorist entity." The content of these reports will be the subject of close scrutiny. How the United States characterizes the PA with regard to terrorist activities is an important signal — both of how the Bush administration will contribute to the lowering of violence as the first step to the resumption of Israeli–Palestinian negotiations, and of what the direction of U.S.–Palestinian relations will be during the George W. Bush/Ariel Sharon era.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

293. Israel's New Sharon Government

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 03-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The formation of a national unity government in Israel today, by a vote 72 to 21, is a triumph for Ariel Sharon. First, he seized the initiative. After his landslide victory a few weeks ago, Sharon did not engage in classic Israeli bargaining tactics in dealing with his Labor Party rivals, but rather caught the defeated and divided party off balance by immediately offering them top cabinet positions in the desire to cement a unity government. Sharon was not intoxicated by the breadth of his victory, but rather followed through on his campaign commitment. Sharon realizes that it is also good politics. According to Gallup's poll taken last week, the Israeli public favors the establishment of such a government by an overwhelming 79 to 14 margin.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

294. Assessing Powell's Trip To Israel And The Palestinian Territories

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While the main purpose of Secretary of State Colin Powell's first foray into the Middle East was to discuss Iraq, he also visited Israel and the Palestinian Authority and injected a dose of what some would call "evenhandedness" — giving each both something to be pleased about and something to be unnerved about.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

295. Intifada 2000 -- The Foggy Bottom Version: A Review Of The Human Rights Report

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Five months after the outbreak of the Palestinian uprising, the U.S. government yesterday issued its first systematic assessment of the intifada-related actions of Israelis and Palestinians in the form of the State Department's Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for the year 2000. A close reading of the twenty-four page chapter on "the Occupied Territories (including areas subject to the jurisdiction of the Palestinian Authority)" reveals numerous condemnations of the actions of Israeli and Palestinian security forces, in almost identical language, with the latter also criticized for its abuses against fellow Palestinians. However, the report also displays a disturbing trend toward selective and distorted reporting on key issues, with the effect of minimizing egregious Palestinian behavior and enhancing the image of Israeli culpability.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

296. Inside Palestinian Politics: Preparing For Israel Under Sharon

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As Ariel Sharon prepares to take power following his landslide victory, significant changes are also underway in the Palestinian Authority (PA). In anticipation of Sharon's victory, the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and leading PA personalities have been preparing a new political agenda to deal with the apparent end of "final status" negotiations and the new Israeli leadership. The most provocative event in recent days has been the issuance of a document — penned by a senior PLO official and longtime associate of PA Ra'is (Chairman) Yasir Arafat — which raises the specter that mainstream Palestinian politics are publicly reverting to the radicalism of pre-Oslo days.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

297. Sharon's Victory: Implications For The Peace Process And U.S. Policy

Author:: Robert Satloff
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The Israeli people spoke in the most dramatic and convincing fashion. Viewed in the U.S. context, Ariel Sharon won a larger share of the vote — 62.5 percent — than any presidential candidate in history. Essentially, Israel voted to express one word: "enough!" — enough violence, enough concessions, enough perception of weakness. They were particularly voting against Barak, both personally and against the policies that characterized his government (dating not only to Camp David but as far back as the earliest days of his cabinet). Certainly, much of yesterday's vote was against Barak more than it was a vote for Sharon; just as Barak's 1999 landslide was less a vote for him than it was a vote against Bibi Netanyahu; just as Netanyahu's 1996 squeaker was less a vote for him than it was a vote against Shimon Peres. Now it's Sharon's turn.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Israel

298. Behind A Looming Sharon Victory

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 02-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The deadline has now passed for Ehud Barak to step aside in favor of rival Shimon Peres in Israel's prime ministerial face-off next Tuesday, February 6, against Likud leader MK Ariel Sharon. Analysts have already written off this election for Barak, as Sharon's lead in the polls has barely budged from a 16 to 20 point margin over the last two months. Given that Barak won a landslide victory by a 12.1 percent margin less than two years ago, the scope of his probable defeat is striking — perhaps the most lopsided electoral debacle since Menachem Begin's Herut lost to the Labor forerunner Mapai in 1959 by a margin of 24.7 percent. Barak's electoral free-fall is especially remarkable given that his opponent is someone long regarded as unelectable, due to his advanced age, right-wing political views, checkered past, and evident discomfort with the new media age. Nevertheless, Barak has pressed on, insisting that the real campaign has only just begun. His decision to stay in the race has heightened speculation that he may plan on joining a Sharon-led "national unity government," despite carefully worded protestations to the contrary.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East and Israel

299. Special Policy Forum Report; Imagining A Likud Foreign Policy

Author:: Dore Gold
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: February marks ten years since the end of the Gulf War. The situation in the Middle East today is vastly more dangerous than in 1991. The favorable regional conditions in 1991 that allowed the current peace process to begin have been reversed. Three key trends are the following: After Iraq's defeat in the Gulf War, it was placed under UN monitoring and extensive sanctions, thereby removing a major threat from Israel's calculus. Today, the situation is drastically different, with the absence of UN inspections for more than two years and the deterioration of sanctions against Iraq. In 1991, Iran was still recovering from its exhaustive war with Iraq and could not fully participate in regional, specifically Arab–Israeli, affairs. By contrast, Iran is currently testing intermediate-range missiles and is expressing its strategic weight in places like Lebanon, where it has increased its support to Hizballah. In 1991, the USSR was crumbling before its eventual collapse and was no longer in a position to offer strategic and military support to the enemies of Israel, while its successor — the Russian Federation — has more or less acquiesced to U.S. positions on the Middle East. Since 1996, however, Russia has taken a contrary approach to many U.S. policies and leadership in the region, in particular with regard to Iraqi sanctions and weapons inspections and the transfer of missile technology to Iran.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Lebanon

300. Time Running Out On Clinton Proposals

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 01-2001
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Meetings this week between Israeli and Palestinian security and political personnel notwithstanding, time has virtually run out for any Israeli–Palestinian peace deal. It is important to note that the issue is not just one of time, even though President Clinton leaves office next Saturday. Top Clinton Administration officials have made clear that the Palestinians have engaged in "delays" since the December 23 ideas were tabled. Seeking to avoid the international disapproval that mushroomed in the wake of last summer's failed Camp David summit, Yasir Arafat came to Washington with an apparent "yes, but" view of the proposals. However, this approach seems clearly to be little more than a public-relations tactic.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Migration, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

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