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Begin New Search Topic Politics Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution The Polish Institute of International Affairs

1. EU Pressure Insufficient to Gain U.S. Visa Waiver for Poles

Author:
Marek Wasinski
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In a communication of 12 April, the European Commission assessed the potential political and economic consequences of suspending visa exemption for U.S. citizens. Lacking pressure from individual EU Member States, the Commission discouraged such a move and gave the EU Council and European Parliament three months to take an official position. It seems almost certain that the measure of applying pressure on a non-EU country will not be used to help Poland and four other Member States obtain visa-free travel to the United States or other countries with a similar restriction. However, if current trends continue, Poland should join the U.S. Visa Waiver Programme in five years.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, European Union, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2. Brazil’s Perception of the Visegrad Group: Not a Strategic but a Prospective Partnership

Author:
Carolina Salgado and Marek Wasinski
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Visegrad Group is still a new label among policy makers as well as public and private investors, scholars and media in Brazil. However, since their accession to the EU in 2004, and the financial crisis that started in 2008, the four Central European countries in this group have started to look beyond Europe in order to formulate their economic and political agenda, aiming to boost partnerships, for example among the biggest South American countries such as Brazil. V4 and Brazil should build momentum to deepen cooperation in the most promising prospective areas such as trade, military, tourism and education.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Brazil

3. The Global Outlook of the Top Five Candidates in the U.S. Presidential Election

Author:
Cordella Buchanan Ponczek
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Traditionally, there is a partisan split on foreign policy in the United States: Republican candidates and voters worry more about terrorism, defense and national security than Democratic candidates and voters, thereby putting more stock in foreign policy issues, which manifests itself in the aggressiveness—of lack thereof—of each party’s foreign policy platform. But the candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential election can be categorised by more than just party: a line can also be drawn between conventional candidates—Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, Republicans—and unconventional candidates—Donald Trump, a Republican, and Bernie Sanders, a Democrat. Should a conventional candidate be elected president, U.S. foreign policy would be based on predictable adaptation to the changing international environment. An unconventional candidate, however, would be a wild card, whose actions would be difficult to predict.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
United States

4. How ASEAN’s Transformation Can Play Out Well for Europe

Author:
Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The transformation of ASEAN into an economic community is a significant step in the organisation’s integration process. The project, formally launched at the beginning of 2016, aims at creation of a single market of more than 620 million people, loosens the flow of goods, services and investment, which should underpin regional economic growth and catch the attention of foreign businesses. However, obstacles to economic cooperation remain, such as limitations on the movement of labour or capital, which shows that the integration process is not yet complete. The EU, which can benefit from a well-functioning market in this region, should share its own experience to support the ASEAN integration process.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Politics, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Europe

5. Transnistria Zig-zagging towards a DCFTA

Author:
Stanislav Secrieru
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Although Transnistria, in exchange for meeting certain conditions, was allowed to benefit from the free trade agreement that Moldova signed with the EU, there are plenty of obstacles which could derail the deal. The business community in the breakaway republic is eager to enjoy the fruits of the DCFTA but is reluctant to shoulder the price of necessary reforms, the outgoing leader of the separatist enclave could undermine the agreement for electoral reasons, Russia might be tempted to test the EU’s resolve to defend its trade-related norms, and Moldova could erect bureaucratic barriers for producers from the left bank of the Nistru River. In the light of these many risks, the EU should persistently encourage all sides to stick to their commitments while averting disputes that would undermine enforcement of the DCFTA in Transnistria in a timely manner.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Elections, and European Union
Political Geography:
Moldova and Transnistria

6. The EU-Turkey Deal on Refugees: How to Move Forward

Author:
Pinar Elman
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Since the EU-Turkey deal on refugees on 29 November, there has not been a significant reduction in the numbers of migrants crossing into the EU from Turkey. One of the main reasons is probably lack of trust between Turkey and European Commission in their readiness to keep promises. EU can break the impasse by offering Schengen visa liberalisation but at the same time should use the accession negotiations to exert greater pressure on Ankara.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Migration, Politics, Refugee Issues, and European Union
Political Geography:
Turkey

7. Ukraine: A Migration Corridor with Half-Closed Doors

Author:
Piotr Kościński
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
At a time when many European countries are strengthening border protection (including building walls), migrants will seek new avenues to Europe. In this context and of particular importance will be the policy of the authorities of Ukraine, which currently, and despite the still unstable situation in the country (war in the east and economic problems) could become the country of choice for migrants. Another problem for Kyiv may be internal migration. Both forms increase the risk of migration to EU countries such as Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, which are neighbours of Ukraine. In this situation, additional EU assistance to the authorities in Kyiv will be necessary.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

8. Foreigners in the Ukrainian Government: A Unique Solution for Challenging Times

Author:
Konrad Zasztowt
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Although it happens rarely, national governments, including those of EU countries, do sometimes hire foreign experts. In Ukraine, employing Georgians from former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s administration seems to be a logical move. His presidency’s biggest successes were the establishment of well-functioning police and an efficient fight against corruption, something both of which Ukraine badly needs. Other foreigners, including renowned experts such as Ukrainian American Natalie Jaresko and Lithuanian Aivaras Abromavičius, responsible for economic recovery, may be successful but face extremely difficult tasks. As all these figures are affiliated with the West in one way or another, their failure would be interpreted by pro-Kremlin media as a collapse of President Petro Poroshenko’s policies (perceived by Russia as a Western project).
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Governance, Self Determination, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Ukraine

9. Aid Coordination in Moldova: Politics Killing Policy

Author:
Victoria Bucătaru
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Leading up to the formation of Moldova’s third government since elections a year ago, Chisinau faces not only political and macro-financial instability, but also suffers from a severe trust deficit in relations with external partners, some of which have suspended aid flows this year. If Moldova was once the most advanced Eastern Partnership state in terms of aid coordination, government ownership of the process has significantly weakened as a result of the protracted political crisis. Although donors continue to cooperate among themselves via well-established channels, participation by state institutions is currently limited. Once the political setting is stabilised, the government will need to go to great lengths to regain the trust of its external partners and re-establish donor coordination. This is fundamental if Moldova is to make the best use of assistance in order to recover its finances quickly.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Governance, and Elections

10. The Silence of the Guns: Can the Cease-Fire in Donbass Last?

Author:
Stanislav Secrieru
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
For the first time since the outbreak of the war in Donbass, the situation on the frontline is nearly a proper cease-fire. This is the outcome of the interplay of three factors: the political-military balance in Donbass, sanctions and Russia’s military intervention in Syria. Nevertheless, it is premature to assume that military options in Donbass are no longer in the cards. Russia is likely to use force if needed to repel a Ukrainian attempt to retake parts of the area, to obstruct the Minsk process if it goes in a disadvantageous direction for Moscow, or to seize more territory if there is further political and social turmoil in Ukraine. To minimize the risks of an eruption of violence in Donbass, the EU and U.S. should prolong the sanctions, fine-tune the diplomatic pressure on both sides to implement and uphold the Minsk Protocols, and pay more attention to the political and economic transformations in the rest of Ukraine.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Politics, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

11. Momentum Not to Be Wasted: Aid Coordination in Post-Revolutionary Ukraine

Author:
Anita Sobjak
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Since the Euromaidan revolution, Ukraine has seen an unprecedented boom in external assistance in support of reforms, which needs to be synchronised appropriately in order to be effective. Although most of the structures and mechanisms for aid coordination have been conceived, they still need to be set in motion, and this requires time. For the system to be functional, the donors should improve coordination at a planning stage (especially those large donors with strict development agendas), while the Ukrainian government has to enhance its capacities for implementation of the reform as a matter of urgency. The present set of 18 reform priorities also needs to be narrowed down further, to focus on the most urgent needs.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Ukraine

12. The Best of Both Worlds: The Unexploited Potential of Inter-parliamentary Cooperation in the EU

Author:
Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
During his first visit to Warsaw after re-election as prime minister of the UK, David Cameron found an ally in support of one of his ideas to reform the EU. Rafał Trzaskowski, the Polish minister for Europe, speaking on behalf of the Polish government, officially endorsed the British position to strengthen national parliaments in EU policymaking. Yet, the proposals to date either require treaty changes or are merely technical adjustments. In fact, much more could be achieved by enhancing the mechanisms of inter-parliamentary cooperation within the existing scope of the treaties. Although this would play very well with the current institutional climate of better regulation and more transparency, it also requires a genuine political will on the side of EU institutions and Member States, which seem to be the missing link.
Topic:
Politics, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and European Union
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

13. Border and Migration Management in the East: The Cases of Norway and Poland

Author:
Kinga Dudzińska, Jakub Godzimirski, and Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The migration and refugee situation in Eastern Europe receives comparatively little attention in the EU for a simple reason: the people displaced by the fighting in eastern Ukraine have tended to stay close to home or travel to Russia rather than head to the European Union. But eastern migration deserves attention. Migration issues, including questions of population loss, diaspora loyalty and border management, are gaining real geopolitical significance across Eastern Europe. Moreover, the EU’s technocratic efforts to leverage access to its labour markets in return for political reform in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are becoming increasingly politicised there. This paper therefore sets out some basic data on the issue. It takes as its case studies the receiving countries Norway and Poland, both located at the external border of the EU, EEA and Schengen zone and next to Russia, and pays special attention to the question of border management, including small border traffic and migration control, looking particularly at the gender dimension of migration.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

14. Azerbaijan’s Risky Game between Russia and the West

Author:
Kamran Ismayilov and Konrad Zasztowt
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Azerbaijan recently had to face a wave of criticism from the European institutions (the OSCE and the European Parliament) due to its government’s undemocratic practices. In response, Baku accused its European partners of Islamophobia and declared the suspension of parliamentary cooperation in the framework of the EU’s Euronest. The Azerbaijani ruling elite also blames the West of supporting a “fifth column” in Azerbaijan (meaning civil society organisations) as well as of giving political support to its arch-enemy Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. At the same time authorities in Baku are displaying their developing political partnership with Russia. This paper examines the consequences of the crisis in relations between the EU and Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani-Russian rapprochement for the prospects for EU-Azerbaijan energy projects and regional security in the South Caucasus.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Civil Society, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia and Azerbaijan

15. AKP Snap Election Tactics: Turmoil in Turkey

Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Following the 2015 national election in Turkey the AKP, for the first time since coming to power in 2002, failed to win enough votes to form a majority government. Since the election the AKP has given the impression that it is attempting to form a coalition government, but in reality the party has been employing a number of tactics in order to increase its share of the vote in preparation for a snap election. These tactics have mainly revolved around increasing the nationalist vote and damaging the main Kurdish party. However, these manoeuvres have increased polarisation in Turkey and have resulted in an escalation of the conflict with the Kurds. Worryingly, it has become evident that the AKP aims to win power in the next election at all costs.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Politics, Governance, and Elections
Political Geography:
Turkey

16. EU-India Strategic Partnership Needs a Reality Check

Author:
Patryk Kuglel
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU-India Strategic Partnership launched in 2004 has made only modest achievements and needs a thorough rethink. Both sides must reset cooperation and base it on a more realistic footing centred on common interests, such as economic cooperation, global governance, development cooperation, and defence. The resumption of free trade negotiations, the organisation of a long overdue bilateral summit, and more frank dialogue on contentious issues is necessary in order to utilise the partnership’s potential. Poland may use this strategic drift to revitalise bilateral cooperation and play a more active role in reviving EU-India dialogue.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe and India

17. Russia’s Hidden Underbelly of Debt

Author:
Maya Rostowska
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Despite the reigning consensus that the Russian economy is facing trouble ahead, some indicators suggest that the situation is not as dire as first appeared. Moreover, it may seem that the fiscal situation in the country—particularly its copious foreign currency reserves and substantial sovereign wealth funds—could still help extricate Russia from its economic difficulties. However, the very difficult budgetary situation in the regions and the staggering levels of debt of its companies suggest that economic problems could hit the country hard. Investors should remain vigilant of social and political tensions and the possible further deterioration of the business environment in Russia.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Politics, Governance, and Budget
Political Geography:
Russia

18. Deterring Russia after Ukraine: CEE Divided on the Future of NATO Policy

Author:
Artur Kacprzyk
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In the context of the Ukraine crisis, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Romania have called for significant strengthening of NATO’s deterrence and defence policy and for permanent deployments of Allied troops in the region. This position is, however, not shared by the rest of the Central and Eastern European NATO members. Similar to Western European countries, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia do not feel as threatened by Russia’s actions and do not support moves that could damage their political and economic relations with Moscow. Fundamental differences among the current positions of the regional Allies indicate a profound divide between Central and Eastern European NATO members.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Economics, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine