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Begin New Search Topic Economics Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution The Polish Institute of International Affairs Publication Year within 25 Years

1. EU Pressure Insufficient to Gain U.S. Visa Waiver for Poles

Author:
Marek Wasinski
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In a communication of 12 April, the European Commission assessed the potential political and economic consequences of suspending visa exemption for U.S. citizens. Lacking pressure from individual EU Member States, the Commission discouraged such a move and gave the EU Council and European Parliament three months to take an official position. It seems almost certain that the measure of applying pressure on a non-EU country will not be used to help Poland and four other Member States obtain visa-free travel to the United States or other countries with a similar restriction. However, if current trends continue, Poland should join the U.S. Visa Waiver Programme in five years.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, European Union, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2. Brazil’s Perception of the Visegrad Group: Not a Strategic but a Prospective Partnership

Author:
Carolina Salgado and Marek Wasinski
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The Visegrad Group is still a new label among policy makers as well as public and private investors, scholars and media in Brazil. However, since their accession to the EU in 2004, and the financial crisis that started in 2008, the four Central European countries in this group have started to look beyond Europe in order to formulate their economic and political agenda, aiming to boost partnerships, for example among the biggest South American countries such as Brazil. V4 and Brazil should build momentum to deepen cooperation in the most promising prospective areas such as trade, military, tourism and education.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Brazil

3. Many Belts and Many Roads: The Proliferation of Infrastructure Initiatives in Asia

Author:
Justyna Szczudlik
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Asia could be described as the world’s great construction site, and is already the focus of a scramble for infrastructure projects. Among countries competing for investments are not only China with its Silk Road initiative, but also Korea, Japan, India and ASEAN, which have prepared their own infrastructural strategies. The plethora of initiatives may have a positive impact on Asia, offering diverse solutions to the infrastructural bottleneck and reforms of existing institutions and modes of assistance. But there is also the risk that fierce competition may result in unprofitable projects, while economic slowdown could cause a decline in funding. For Europe these initiatives create opportunities to take part in new projects, but the EU should be aware that the projects will be implemented mainly in Asia and by Asian countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, and Reform
Political Geography:
Asia

4. Forever on the Periphery? The Return of Geopolitics to EU Enlargement to the Balkans

Author:
Tomasz Żornaczuk
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
At the beginning of 2016, almost 13 years after the Thessaloniki declaration to integrate the Western Balkans into the European Union, Brussels is left with Croatia as a Member State, Montenegro half way, at best, to becoming one, Serbia with first negotiation chapters just opened, and half of the region with no clear prospect of membership. But the wait-and-see approach that the EU had been employing for a number of years towards the enlargement policy in the Balkans has become even riskier in times of new international challenges. Among them, the ever-growing tensions between the West and Russia should, in particular, serve as motivation for the Union to look at enlargement in the Balkans from a geopolitical angle. Even if the Member States have in recent years shown less enthusiasm towards further rounds of enlargement, this should not discourage the EU institutions from undertaking an active role to revive the European integration process in the Balkans.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Serbia and Croatia

5. How ASEAN’s Transformation Can Play Out Well for Europe

Author:
Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The transformation of ASEAN into an economic community is a significant step in the organisation’s integration process. The project, formally launched at the beginning of 2016, aims at creation of a single market of more than 620 million people, loosens the flow of goods, services and investment, which should underpin regional economic growth and catch the attention of foreign businesses. However, obstacles to economic cooperation remain, such as limitations on the movement of labour or capital, which shows that the integration process is not yet complete. The EU, which can benefit from a well-functioning market in this region, should share its own experience to support the ASEAN integration process.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Politics, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Europe

6. Transnistria Zig-zagging towards a DCFTA

Author:
Stanislav Secrieru
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Although Transnistria, in exchange for meeting certain conditions, was allowed to benefit from the free trade agreement that Moldova signed with the EU, there are plenty of obstacles which could derail the deal. The business community in the breakaway republic is eager to enjoy the fruits of the DCFTA but is reluctant to shoulder the price of necessary reforms, the outgoing leader of the separatist enclave could undermine the agreement for electoral reasons, Russia might be tempted to test the EU’s resolve to defend its trade-related norms, and Moldova could erect bureaucratic barriers for producers from the left bank of the Nistru River. In the light of these many risks, the EU should persistently encourage all sides to stick to their commitments while averting disputes that would undermine enforcement of the DCFTA in Transnistria in a timely manner.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Elections, and European Union
Political Geography:
Moldova and Transnistria

7. Ukraine: A Migration Corridor with Half-Closed Doors

Author:
Piotr Kościński
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
At a time when many European countries are strengthening border protection (including building walls), migrants will seek new avenues to Europe. In this context and of particular importance will be the policy of the authorities of Ukraine, which currently, and despite the still unstable situation in the country (war in the east and economic problems) could become the country of choice for migrants. Another problem for Kyiv may be internal migration. Both forms increase the risk of migration to EU countries such as Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, which are neighbours of Ukraine. In this situation, additional EU assistance to the authorities in Kyiv will be necessary.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

8. Aid Coordination in Moldova: Politics Killing Policy

Author:
Victoria Bucătaru
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Leading up to the formation of Moldova’s third government since elections a year ago, Chisinau faces not only political and macro-financial instability, but also suffers from a severe trust deficit in relations with external partners, some of which have suspended aid flows this year. If Moldova was once the most advanced Eastern Partnership state in terms of aid coordination, government ownership of the process has significantly weakened as a result of the protracted political crisis. Although donors continue to cooperate among themselves via well-established channels, participation by state institutions is currently limited. Once the political setting is stabilised, the government will need to go to great lengths to regain the trust of its external partners and re-establish donor coordination. This is fundamental if Moldova is to make the best use of assistance in order to recover its finances quickly.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Governance, and Elections

9. Border and Migration Management in the East: The Cases of Norway and Poland

Author:
Kinga Dudzińska, Jakub Godzimirski, and Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The migration and refugee situation in Eastern Europe receives comparatively little attention in the EU for a simple reason: the people displaced by the fighting in eastern Ukraine have tended to stay close to home or travel to Russia rather than head to the European Union. But eastern migration deserves attention. Migration issues, including questions of population loss, diaspora loyalty and border management, are gaining real geopolitical significance across Eastern Europe. Moreover, the EU’s technocratic efforts to leverage access to its labour markets in return for political reform in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are becoming increasingly politicised there. This paper therefore sets out some basic data on the issue. It takes as its case studies the receiving countries Norway and Poland, both located at the external border of the EU, EEA and Schengen zone and next to Russia, and pays special attention to the question of border management, including small border traffic and migration control, looking particularly at the gender dimension of migration.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

10. EU-India Strategic Partnership Needs a Reality Check

Author:
Patryk Kuglel
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU-India Strategic Partnership launched in 2004 has made only modest achievements and needs a thorough rethink. Both sides must reset cooperation and base it on a more realistic footing centred on common interests, such as economic cooperation, global governance, development cooperation, and defence. The resumption of free trade negotiations, the organisation of a long overdue bilateral summit, and more frank dialogue on contentious issues is necessary in order to utilise the partnership’s potential. Poland may use this strategic drift to revitalise bilateral cooperation and play a more active role in reviving EU-India dialogue.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe and India

11. Who Are They? Two Profiles of Syrian Refugees

Author:
Patryk Sasnal
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Syrians constitute the biggest national group migrating to Europe in 2015, according to Frontex. Of all the social diversity within a single society, two generalised profiles of a Syrian refugee can be inferred from available information: a poorer, rural worker based in camps in Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon, and a richer, middle-class professional living outside of refugee camps, recently migrating to Europe via the Greece and Western Balkans route. While Europe has so far received the best of the Syrian society, poorer Syrians may also be on the move without an immediate and substantial improvement of educational infrastructure and their legal labour market status in host countries.
Topic:
Civil War, Economics, Migration, Poverty, Refugee Issues, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Syria

12. Germany and the Future of the Eurozone

Author:
Sebastian Plóciennik
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Although the euro has survived the most severe phase of the current crisis, its future is still uncertain. The fate of the common currency will depend not only on the condition of the European economy, but also the priorities of its biggest player—Germany. So far that country has been strong enough to enforce its own vision of integration based on neoliberal reforms and austerity measures. Since the side effects of this prescription have been rising costs and risks, Berlin's new government will consider a range of different solutions, including in extremis a controlled and partial break-up of the Eurozone. For Poland, this volatility creates a challenging environment with risks, but also creates chances for Warsaw to increase its influence over the evolution of EU integration in this field.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

13. Insanity or Part of a Plan? Prospects for Changes to North Korean Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author:
Nicolas Levi
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Ever since previous North Korean leader Kim Jong-il passed away in December 2011, concerns about the new North Korean regime have been growing. Although the international community has worried mainly about the country's foreign policy, especially nuclear and missile threats, recent news about a purge in the North Korean leadership has brought to the fore the question of the regime's internal stability. Kim Jong-un has been steadily building a new system of governance, giving more power to the Korean Workers' Party apparatus at the expense of the armed forces. He has also shown interest in boosting North Korea's economy. In foreign and security policy, however, in the short term, North Korea is likely to continue on its previous uncompromising course.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Communism, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
North Korea

14. Germany’s Policy towards Russia: New Wine in an Old Wineskin

Author:
Ryszarda Formuszewicz
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The tougher tone in Germany’s policy towards Russia reflects changes in Berlin’s perception of the eastern giant and in its own self-perception as a power willing to play a more active international role. This readiness for leadership could cement Germany’s status as a key international player whilst handing it the influence necessary to secure its own primary economic interests vis-à-vis Russia. However, it will also require Germany to critically address the long-standing premises of its policy towards Russia, and its appetite to overturn old assumptions remains limited. Lessons drawn by Germany now, in particular with regards to the causes of the Ukraine crisis, will prevail as a guideline for its Russia policy, and as such will also be decisive in the prospects for Polish–German cooperation.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Power Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Germany

15. Rocky Road to a Level Playing Field in EU–China Investment and Trade Relations

Author:
Damian Wnukowski and Artur Gradziuk
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
At the beginning of 2014, the European Union and China launched negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty that would launch the next stage in economic relations between them. Although both approach numerous issues differently, they have also strong incentives to seek compromise. Reaching an agreement on investment topics could be a significant step towards creating a favourable environment for cooperation and resolving most contentious sticking points in bilateral relations in the near future. It could also become a template for future similar EU agreements.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, China, and European Union
Political Geography:
China and European Union

16. Russia’s Hidden Underbelly of Debt

Author:
Maya Rostowska
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Despite the reigning consensus that the Russian economy is facing trouble ahead, some indicators suggest that the situation is not as dire as first appeared. Moreover, it may seem that the fiscal situation in the country—particularly its copious foreign currency reserves and substantial sovereign wealth funds—could still help extricate Russia from its economic difficulties. However, the very difficult budgetary situation in the regions and the staggering levels of debt of its companies suggest that economic problems could hit the country hard. Investors should remain vigilant of social and political tensions and the possible further deterioration of the business environment in Russia.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Politics, Governance, and Budget
Political Geography:
Russia

17. Deterring Russia after Ukraine: CEE Divided on the Future of NATO Policy

Author:
Artur Kacprzyk
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In the context of the Ukraine crisis, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Romania have called for significant strengthening of NATO’s deterrence and defence policy and for permanent deployments of Allied troops in the region. This position is, however, not shared by the rest of the Central and Eastern European NATO members. Similar to Western European countries, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia do not feel as threatened by Russia’s actions and do not support moves that could damage their political and economic relations with Moscow. Fundamental differences among the current positions of the regional Allies indicate a profound divide between Central and Eastern European NATO members.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Economics, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

18. China's New Silk Road Diplomacy

Author:
Justyna Szczudlik- Tatar
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The destinations of China's new leaders' foreign trips show that the PRC's foreign policy domain remains its neighbourhood. China is trying in particular to enhance cooperation with its Central and Southeast Asia border states in what is called "new silk road" diplomacy. Behind this approach are mostly domestic rationales: a need to preserve stability on its borders and in the western part of China, secure export markets and energy supplies, develop inland transport routes as an alternative to unstable sea lines, and to narrow the development gap between the eastern and western parts of China. The PRC's "opening to the West" and reinvigoration of its Western Development Policy is a window of opportunity for Poland. The establishment in Gansu province of the Lanzhou New Area-the first state-level development zone in northwest China-could become a bridgehead for a Polish economic presence in this part of China, or even a springboard for Poland's "Go West China" strategy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Southeast Asia

19. A Competitive Two-speed Policy: The Eastern Partnership beyond 2013

Author:
Kinga Dudzinska, Elzbieta Kaca, and Karolina Zubel
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A redefinition of the Eastern Partnership beyond 2013 is urgently needed in order to make the EU a more competitive player vis-à-vis Russia and China in the region. Eastern partners which choose deeper economic integration with the EU must therefore be supported by enhanced cooperation, which would require further differentiation in approaches towards neighbours. It should also be supported by certain horizontal policies, strengthening the EU's multilateral cooperation and the fledgling European Union diplomacy in this region, assisted by better targeting policies at EaP societies.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
China and Europe

20. Bundestag Elections 2013: Consequences for German Capitalism and European Integration

Author:
Sebastian Plóciennik
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Germany will draw a lot of attention in September 2013 when its citizens will choose a new federal parliament-Bundestag. The reason is not only the fact that the country is a big player but also that it dominates Europe on a scale not observed since the 1980s. Its economic model seems to be the most efficient in Europe at the moment and the country even has enough power to set reform agendas across the EU. Since the biggest changes in German internal and external politics can be expected if the opposition is victorious, it seems important to analyse in advance the key elements of the proposals by the major opposition force: Social-Democratic Party (SPD) and the Alliance 90/The Greens. This could help us understand what kind of change to German capitalism is advocated by these parties and how their election success could affect European integration.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany