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Begin New Search Political Geography Global Focus Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution The Geneva Centre for Security Policy Publication Year within 3 Years Publication Year within 10 Years

1. The Future of Neutrality

Author:
Pascal Lottaz
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Neutrality is a naturally occurring phenomenon. There have always been actors on the world stage that have remained outside the conflicts of others, be they countries, religious institutions or international organisations (IOs). Even during the two world wars and the first Cold War (i.e. the US and its allies versus the USSR and its allies), some actors managed to avoid the battlefields or claimed a position separate from the various alliance systems. Despite the beliefs of some commentators that neutrality is coming to an end, there is no indication that world politics is actually about to change dramatically enough to eradicate the reasons and logic for neutrality. In fact, the least conductive international environment for neutrality – unipolarity – seems to be ending. What could be called the “New Cold War” (the West-aligned countries versus Russia in Europe and versus China in Asia) and the emerging multipolar world will likely produce the dynamics leading to more neutrality as a counter-reaction to the new great power rivalry. We should expect neutrality and neutralism – i.e. political movements demanding the adoption of neutrality policies – to strengthen. Nevertheless, neutrality is shifting. It is moving from Europe to other regions of the world, and, in the process, will likely also change conceptually. This Policy Brief will first describe the nature of neutrality and the three basic motivations for actors to opt for its policies. It then discusses the challenges any neutrality policy faces and will conclude by providing concrete recommendations for policymakers seeking to maintain neutrality vis-à-vis either hot or cold conflicts.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Hegemony, Rivalry, and Neutrality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Commitment to Control Weaponised Artificial Intelligence: A Step Forward for the OSCE and European Security

Author:
Anna Nadibaidze
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Recent technological and political developments in OSCE participating States suggest a strong interest in pursuing, testing and using weaponised AI and weapons systems with increasingly autonomous features controlled by algorithms. In May 2021 Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had begun producing combat robots “capable of fighting on their own”,1 while the French Army is planning to introduce robotic systems by 2040.2 The United Kingdom (UK) government has stated its objective of achieving “a leading role in critical and emerging technologies”3 and has established a Defence Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy Unit to better understand them.4 In the United States, the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence has urged the government “not [to] be a witness to the AI revolution in military affairs”.5 The global discussion about autonomous weapons systems is often framed in a futuristic way and focuses on lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) – colloquially called “killer robots” – or the “AI arms race”. But weaponised AI is already a reality of European security. Thus far participating States have been reluctant to utilise the OSCE platform to address the risks caused by the increasing autonomy of weapons systems. Building on this issue, this essay intends to address the following questions: (1) how does the lack of regulation of weaponised AI affect security and stability in Europe? and (2) what role can the OSCE play in mitigating the risks related to weaponised AI?
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Blockchain Technology: An Innovative Policy Tool for Enhancing Conventional Arms Control and Verification

Author:
Nicolo Miotto
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Blockchain has the potential to revolutionise our societies by radically transforming multiple sectors ranging from financial services to health care, and from international trade to logistics.1 Governments, businesses, research centres, and international organisations are becoming increasingly interested in this cutting-edge technology because it can be utilised to provide a decentralised system for data management with high levels of transparency, reliability, and security.2 Recently, inter- governmental organisations such as the United Nations (UN) and the OSCE have emphasised the relevance of blockchain, which can be utilised to improve international security.3 Blockchain has already proved that it can effectively enhance human security. For instance, the World Food Programme has pioneered a blockchain-based humanitarian aid programme to support refugees in Jordan with the use of cryptocurrencies.4 Similarly, the International Committee of the Red Cross has developed a distributed ledger technology (DLT)-based local trading system in Kenya to help fragile communities.5 In 2015 the UN International Children’s Emergency Fund even launched “Unicoin” – its own cryptocurrency – which children from poor families can exchange for goods. Although researchers have been exploring the impact of this technology on multiple fields, the implications of blockchain-based systems for CAC are still under-explored. This paper aims to fill this research gap by demonstrating that blockchain can play a crucial role in enhancing CAC monitoring and verification. It argues that blockchain offers a positive behavioural model and has advantageous practical implications for conventional arms control. The analysis is guided by the following research questions: (1) what psychological impact does blockchain have on confidence building? and (2) how do smart contracts enhance CAC?
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, and Blockchain
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Peace and Security 2025

Author:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
On the one hand, 2025 is just around the corner while, on the other hand, it seems far, far away. In Part I of this publication, experts and associates from the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) paint a picture of possible futures in five areas by presenting scenarios that depict potential developments in the period up to 2025. The discussion will include suggestions on what can be done to prevent these scenarios from becoming a reality. In Part II, authors will make specific suggestions on how we can effectively respond to the peace and security environment out to 2025 by using appropriate leadership, crisis management and strategic foresight approaches.
Topic:
Security, Conflict, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Policy and Technology for the Greater Good: Imagining Futures

Author:
Maricela Munoz
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
When reflecting on emerging technologies, policy, and participatory perspectives, one may conclude that security must be collective and human-centred. The concept of human security represents a departure from traditional orthodox positions, which focus on the security of the state.40 The subjects of the human security approach are individuals, and the end goal of this approach is the protection of people from all sorts of threats, e.g. disease, poverty, environmental degradation, military action, terrorism, misinformation, etc. Moving the security agenda beyond state security does not mean replacing it, but rather complementing and building on it. Central to this approach is the understanding that a lack of human security can undermine peace and stability within and between states, while an overemphasis on state security can be detrimental to human welfare.41 Science cannot solve all of humankind’s problems, and new groundbreaking discoveries may even endanger human beings. Modern policymaking, based on multidisciplinary and comprehensive participatory methodologies, must be the vehicle to achieve common understandings, reconciling technology for the greater good with political and business priorities. Good implies that it will solve social and environmental challenges. In recent decades public policy has centred on the promotion of macroeconomic growth, but has done little to guarantee individual and societal well-being.42 But it is possible to incorporate public values into policymaking, improving its effectiveness and increasing trust in institutions while informing and educating the general public. Public meetings, multisectoral engagements, external advisory committees, and mediation processes have shown their ability to increase the quality of decision-making and produce a positive impact. The COVID-19 pandemic allowed us to create a new model for the integration of science, technology and policy responses. We must draw important lessons from this crisis, refine the model and create incentives to mainstream good practices. The erosion of multilateralism, nationalist posturing, and the emergence of new actors and powers are changing the global order. International cooperation is failing.43 This could be a pivotal opportunity for a wider societal response, where polymath approaches, strengthened communication, inclusive dialogue and renewed trust shape a new social contract. Today more than ever leaders in communities, countries, and globally must take a proactive approach and call for open and horizontal conversations on the intersection between science and policy. As part of these conversations, all of us are called on to become humanist leaders wherever we are, and to act without delay on the knowledge and understandings that are being built. The meaningful and effective participation of women, youth, indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities, the LGTBIQ+ community, and others is essential to building partnerships at all levels. The current crises we are facing and the expansive modernisation of technologies for a huge range of purposes have underlined the urgency of the need to embrace our human and collective security, protect our fate as a species, and imagine futures that are safe, resilient, and good for all
Topic:
Globalization, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Humanitarian Intervention, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus