1. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2003
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Conference Board
- Abstract:
- The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 1.0 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in May.The leading index increased sharply in May following a slight gain in April. This increase was largely due to stock prices, real money supply, and consumer expectations, but most other components also increased slightly. It is possible that these two consecutive increases reflect the beginning of an upward trend, thereby ending the flat trend that began in early 2002.The strength in the leading indicators has become more widespread as shown by a pick-up in the diffusion indexes, which measure the proportion of the components that are rising. The one- and six-month diffusion indexes are now at or above fifty percent, up from lower levels earlier in the year. The coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions, increased modestly in May after holding steady in the previous two months. The coincident index remained essentially flat in the second quarter, but is likely to increase in the second half of the year reflecting the recent gains in the leading index.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States