Search

Begin New Search Topic Economics Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution Peterson Institute for International Economics

151. The Future of the Dollar

Author:
Richard N. Cooper
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The US dollar is not the world's key currency by policy design, just as English is not the leading global language by policy design. It is the evolutionary outcome of practice and experience. It would take both a major shock to the dollar and a viable alternative to dislodge it from widespread use. Like a common language, the dollar enjoys “network externalities”— the greater the number of people who use and accept it, the more useful it is to everyone, and the more entrenched it becomes. Also, what is not quite the same thing, the dollar enjoys a large market in low-risk and highly liquid securities, most notably US Treasury bills; the liquidity both enhances and is enhanced by the network externalities. Most of the world's foreign exchange transactions directly involve the US dollar. It is easy to hold and easy to use, even on a large scale. In short, it is highly convenient.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

152. Why SDRs Could Rival the Dollar

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In a recent Cato Institute paper, Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar (2009) asserts that the International Monetary Fund's special drawing rights (SDRs) cannot rival the US dollar, as suggested by the Chinese central bank governor (Zhou Xiaochuan 2009). “The SDR is not a currency and never can be,” Swami declares confidently in the first paragraph of his paper. He presents two arguments, which are presumably supposed to be proofs of this proposition.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

153. The 2008 Oil Price "Bubble"

Author:
Mohsin S. Khan
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As oil prices began to rise in 2009 from a low point of about $40 a barrel in January to around $70 a barrel in July, a key question is whether the world is in for another oil price spike in the near term similar to that witnessed in early 2008. Several hypotheses were advanced when world oil prices started their inexorable climb from 2003–04 onwards, then skyrocketed from $92 a barrel in January 2008 to cross the $140 a barrel mark in June, finally hitting a record high of $147 a barrel on July 11, 2008, before collapsing to less than $40 a barrel in December (figure 1). There was the “peak oil” explanation, based on the theories of M. King Hubbert of “Hubbert's Peak” fame and his supporters, notably Colin Campbell and Matthew Simmons, that the world was running out of oil. There were the market “fundamentalists,” including importantly John Lipsky, the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Philip Verleger, a well-known oil expert, who argued that the fundamentals of demand and supply were primarily behind the extraordinary rise in oil prices in the first half of 2008 (Lipsky 2009a, 2009b; Verleger 2005, 2008). Interestingly, this fundamentals view was also shared by the US Treasury and was articulated by David McCormick, then undersecretary for international affairs, in a presentation in July 2008 at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Finally, there were those who maintained that such an increase could only be a “bubble,” unexplained by peak oil theory or market fundamentals. Many financial-market participants were proponents of this third view, notably Michael Masters (2008), as well as the main oil producers, who were as surprised as anyone at the speed and size of the price increase over only a few months. Their argument was that the phenomenal increase in financialization of commodity markets during 2006–08, including in particular the oil market, led to speculation and momentum trading, which pushed oil prices way beyond their long-term equilibrium level as determined by fundamentals.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States

154. The Future of the Chiang Mai Initiative: An Asian Monetary Fund?

Author:
C. Randall Henning
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In September 1997, at the outset of the last global financial crisis, the Japanese Ministry of Finance proposed the creation of an Asian Monetary Fund. Although this particular proposal was scuttled, the idea of a common regional fund on which East Asian governments might draw in times of financial turmoil survives. The region's disaffection from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stemming from the 1997–98 crisis, sustains this idea and a desire on the part of individual countries to self-insure with large holdings of foreign exchange reserves. East Asian governments and central banks have created a set of bilateral swap arrangements (BSAs) dubbed the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) and are negotiating among themselves to build these BSAs into a more comprehensive facility. Some Asian officials hope that such a facility could underpin exchange rate cooperation and monetary integration in the region, although such proposals remain for the moment long-term visions.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and Asia

155. Money for the Auto Industry: Consistent with WTO Rules?

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Claire Brunel
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As the financial crisis threatens to lead to a depression, the woes of the automobile industry are second only to the distress of the financial sector. Employment in the US auto industry dropped 9 percent between 2007 and 2008, with much more to follow in 2009. Overall, US auto sales dropped 18 percent between 2007 and 2008, and sales of SUVs plunged 44 percent on a year-over-year basis. Since some sort of financing is required for 90 percent of US car sales, the global credit freeze hit the auto industry with a second blow.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Poverty, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

156. A Green Recovery? Assessing US Economic Stimulus and the Prospects for International Coordination

Author:
Trevor Houser, Shashank Mohan, and Robert Heilmayr
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As the 111th Congress begins and a new president takes office, the economic crisis dominates the US policy agenda. The financial system remains in a tenuous state despite massive bank recapitalization, and the economy, more than a year into the current recession, shows no signs of recovery. Given the scale of the challenge Washington faces and the amount of money required to combat it, there will likely be little room for other legislative priorities. As a result, policymakers are hoping to direct government spending over the next two years in a way that not only generates short-term economic growth and employment but also addresses long-term policy goals sidelined by the current crisis.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Economics, Environment, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

157. Buy American: Bad for Jobs, Worse for Reputation

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On January 28, 2009, the US House of Representatives passed its economic stimulus plan, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Out of the bill's 700 text pages, a small half-page section attracted enormous media attention: the section requiring that all public projects funded by the stimulus plan must use only iron and steel produced in the United States (box 1). Another provision, which drew less attention, extends the so-called Berry Amendment (an old Buy American provision) to uniforms purchased by the Department of Homeland Security.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Government, Industrial Policy, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States

158. Did Reagan Rule In Vain? A Closer Look at True Expenditure Levels in the United States and Europe

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
It is generally believed that the United States is a country of low taxes and small government, at least when compared with countries in Europe (and until the financial crisis so greatly expanded the role of the federal government in the United States in late 2008). Fully accounting for the role, size, and effect of the government in an economy is a complex endeavor, however, and it is hardly accomplished by repeatedly restating differences in top marginal tax rates, overall tax burdens, or gross sizes of governments in GDP terms.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Privatization
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

159. US Taxation of Multinational Corporations: What Makes Sense, What Doesn't

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jisun Kim
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As the administration and Congress catch their breath from rescuing the economy, their thoughts are quickly turning to other issues—including the structure of the US tax system. Everyone agrees that the US tax system inflicts enormous complexity on the American public. But reform is never easy. Who pays the tax burden ranks among the most contentious issues that Congress has historically faced, and this time around will be no different.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

160. Pressing the "Reset Button" on US-Russia Relations

Author:
Anders Åslund and Andrew Kuchins
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Whither Russia? Russia's economic circumstances as well as its articulated goals hold the answer to this eternal question. Drawing on our analysis in the forthcoming book The Russia Balance Sheet, we outline here a policy approach for the Barack Obama administration. We believe our views reflect to some degree an emerging consensus for the new administration's Russia policy. Russia is important for US foreign policy in many ways. The United States needs a more constructive relationship with Russia to address many core global security issues including nuclear security and nonproliferation, terrorism, energy, and climate change.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia and United States