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2. Attack on Syria: the danger is in escalation
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- It is now looking all but certain that the United States will launch some form of attack on Syria. What is unclear is the severity and duration of the attack. Leaving aside the political ramifications, the immediate economic effects are likely to be limited (and are mostly already factored in). Opposing impacts on inflation and activity means that changes to central bank policy could be postponed. A prolonged campaign could have wider ramifications, not least if there is a risk of a geographical widening of the conflict.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
3. Launching the third arrow of Abenomics
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Shinzo Abe was elected Prime Minister of Japan last December on a programme intended to end two decades of deflation and lost growth in Japan. His regime, dubbed 'Abenomics', consists of three arrows: a monetary stimulus, a fiscal stimulus and structural reform. The first two are well under way. The third has yet to be fired. But following his party's victory in July's Upper House election, Mr Abe has all the backing he will need – or ever get – to forcefully launch the third arrow of Abenomics. This scenario alert examines the potential upsides for the Japanese economy if Abenomics succeeds. Although the economy will not return to the 4%+ growth rates seen in the 1980s, it could secure growth in the 2-3% range. This would be a major improvement on its dismal performance of less than 1% average real growth a year since 1993.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Syria
4. China: Highlights and Key Issues
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- The Chinese economy expanded by 7.4% year-on-year in Q3, down from 7.6% in Q2, but stronger than we had expected. Of particular surprise was the implied quarterly growth rate; based on the seasonally adjusted data released by the NBS, the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 9.1%, the strongest since 2011Q3.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China and Syria